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THE TEXT OF THE HARRISON FORD CLIMATE CHANGE SPEECH

sumatra

  1. Point#1: The destruction of nature accounts for more global emissions than all the cars and trucks in the world. We can put solar panels on every house, we can turn every car into an electric vehicle, but as long as Sumatra burns, we will have failed. So long as the Amazon’s great forests are slashed and burned, so long as the protected lands of tribal people, indigenous people, are allowed to be encroached upon, so long as wetlands and peat bogs are destroyed, our climate goals will remain out of reach and we will be shut out of time.
  2. Point#2: If we don’t stop the destruction of our natural world nothing else will matter. Why? Because protecting and restoring forests, mangroves, wetlands, these huge dense carbon sinks, represent at least 30% of what needs to be done to avoid catastrophic warming. It is at this time the only feasible solution for absorbing carbon on a global scale. Simply put, if we can’t protect nature we can’t protect ourselves.
  3. Point#3: Stop protecting people who don’t believe in science – or worse than that, pretend they don’t believe in science for their own self interest. They know who they are. We know who they are. We are all, rich or poor, powerful or powerless, at risk. We will all suffer the effects of climate change and ecosystem destruction and we are facing what is quickly becoming the greatest moral crisis of our time – that those least responsible will bear the greatest cost.
  4. About Harrison Ford: The author, once a famous Hollywood actor is now Vice Chairman of Conservation International, a large and well funded ecological activism group. Their view of the world and their ecological activism goals and methods are described on the CI website [LINK]. This text indicates that CI is in the business of protecting nature (specifically identified as forests, wetlands, primitive human communities, and animals perceived as endangered by activities of technologically advanced human communities such as the Western industrialized civilization.
  5. Statement from the CI website describing their organization: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​For more than 30 years, Conservation International (CI) has been protecting nature for the benefit of all​. Humanity is totally dependent on nature, and by saving nature, we’re saving ourselves. To that end, Conservation International is working to build a healthier, more prosperous and more productive planet. We do this through s​​cience, policy and partnerships with countries, communities and companies. We employ nearly 1,000 people and work with more than 2,000 partners in 30 countries. Over the years, we have helped support 1,200 protected areas and interventions across 77 countries, protecting more than 601 million hectares of land, marine and coastal areas.​​
  6. CI Activities: Human drugs are polluting the water and animals are swimming in it. Pharmaceuticals are flowing from homes and factories into freshwater rivers, streams and lakes, harming aquatic species. The story: Medication is entering freshwater ecosystems worldwide through our toilets and sinks — and its trip through the human digestive tract isn’t dampening its effectiveness, According to recent research, a platypus living in a pharmaceutical-contaminated stream in Melbourne is likely to ingest more than half the recommended adult dose of antidepressants every day. The big picture: While symptoms from exposure depend on the species and dosage, scientists have already observed a measurable effect on wildlife. Atlantic salmon smolts that are exposed to anti-anxiety medications such as Xanax and Valium migrate twice as fast as unmedicated smolts, which causes them to arrive at sea before they’re fully developed and harms their chances of survival. Scientists estimate that if humans continue releasing pharmaceuticals into waterways at the current rate, the concentration of these drugs in freshwater ecosystems will likely increase by two-thirds in the next 30 years.
  7. CI Activities: Invasions of indigenous lands: Emboldened by President Jair Bolsonaro, armed invaders are encroaching on Brazil’s tribal lands in the Amazon. Invasions of indigenous lands have increased 150 percent since Bolsonaro was elected president of Brazil in October. During his presidential campaign, Bolsonaro condemned federal protections for indigenous peoples, whose lands make up about 13% of Brazil’s territory. In response to Bolsonaro’s antagonistic statements against indigenous rights and in support of development during his campaign, attacks on indigenous reservations rose and deforestation rates climbed almost 50 percent.Brazil’s Amazon rain forest is home to 850,000 indigenous peoples. The president’s incendiary remarks have been viewed by many as approval or even incentive to invade indigenous spaces and “stake their claims.” Not only does this put people at risk, it threatens generations of traditional knowledge that are key to fighting climate change.
  8. CI Activities: Ocean heat waves threatening marine life: Ocean heat waves, defined as at least five consecutive days of warmer-than-usual ocean temperatures, are more severe and longer-lasting because of greenhouse gas emissions, a new study finds. Oceans have absorbed more than 90 percent of the heat from greenhouse gas emissions since the 1950s. This excess heat translates to an uptick in heat waves. These marine heat waves can kill off fish, coral reefs and vital coastal ecosystems such as seagrass meadows and kelp forests that store “blue” carbon. For the approximately 3 billion people dependent on oceans for their protein, these heat waves pose a serious threat to their food security.
  9. CI Activities: Komodo dragons: Komodo Island in Indonesia may temporarily close its borders to tourists to enable dragon populations to recover. Komodo dragon numbers have been dwindling due in large part to smugglers. A temporary tourism ban would help protect the dragons from smugglers and let authorities replenish the dragons’ food supply by planting native vegetation. Komodo dragons are an endangered species. There are only about 5,700 in the wild and they’re being trafficked for food and traditional medicinal use. The dragons are an essential part of the food chain on the island, and could be significant to science, too: Antimicrobial peptides in their blood give them the ability to recover from the venomous bites of other Komodo dragons, which scientists believe could provide the foundation of a new antibiotic for human medicine.
  10. CI Activities: Save the Mangroves: In one of the most biodiverse regions of Colombia, the national government has proposed building a port within the protected area of the Tribuga-Corrientes cape, on Colombia’s northern Pacific coast. This port would destroy mangroves and the ecosystem services (that is, the tangible benefits that nature provides) that local communities rely on. A new study puts an exact price tag on the cost of destroying those mangroves: If the port is built, it would cost US$ 230 million per year in lost ecosystem services such as providing habitat for fish, protecting the coast from storms and storing carbon. Plans for the port have been discussed for close to a decade, and local organizations have been trying to stop it for just as long with little success. To prove the detrimental impact that the port and by default, the destruction of the mangroves would have on the economy, the researchers analyzed the value of the mangroves through three distinct lenses: monetary (the economic value to fisheries, other natural resources), sociocultural (the value to surrounding communities); and ecological (storing carbon, biodiversity). By putting a price tag on mangrove ecosystem services, researchers are able to show the mangroves’ economic importance not only to surrounding communities, which rely on fishing, agricultural and tourism that the mangrove forest provides, but to the country at large. The data from this study was presented to the president of Colombia, senators and the Ministry of Environment with the goal of stopping the construction of the port. “Mangroves are vital for human well-being and provide valuable ecosystem services to the country as a whole. The port will harm the country economically more than it would help it. Hopefully this is enough to stop the progression of the port in Congress and save the mangrove forest and all of the benefits that it provides.
  11. Summary of CI activities: It is clear from the above that CI is an environmental activism organization with the generic purpose of saving nature from human impacts and from its own complexities. The role of climate change in these activities is mostly in terms of protecting nature from climate change impacts that have been claimed by climate science. In addition there is some concern that nature’s ability to store carbon should not be disturbed lest natural emissions of carbon from natural storage sinks exacerbate climate change. We can now understand the Harrison Ford lecture in this context as follows:
  12. Context for Point #1: The context is that the CI priority of protecting forests ties in with climate change because protecting and preserving forests can prevent release of carbon stored in forests. His reference to Sumatra is relates to the large forest fire there in 2015 that involved the combustion of peat in the forest floor seen as climate change causing carbon being released to the atmosphere. These fires have recurred several times since then and are thought to be natural. His concern for the preservation of the Amazon also relates to the release of CO2 if the forest is “slashed and burned”. His reference encroachment on indigenous lands is mysterious in this context. Here is a link to more information about the Sumatra peat forest fires  [LINK]
  13. Context for Point #2: In Point number 2, the control of carbon release to the atmosphere by preserving forests is generalized to protecting “the natural world” from destruction by human activity. It should be mentioned that the Sumatra fires are thought to be natural and so the CI goal of protecting nature applies both to protecting nature from humans and protecting nature from itself.
  14. Context for Point #3: Here he appears to have identified national leaders such as President Trump (USA) and President Bolsonaro (Brazil) as enemies of nature because the don’t believe in science. It is understood that CI activity extends to opposing and neutralizing world leaders who do not believe in science and who therefore pose a threat in terms of the CI priority of protecting nature from destruction.
  15. CONCLUSION: The theory of Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) relates to the use of fossil fuels by the industrial economy of humans in which large quantities of carbon are dug up from under the ground where they had been sequestered from nature’s carbon cycle and climate system. The concern is that the carbon that is released into the atmosphere when these fossil fuels are burnt does not belong in the current account of the carbon cycle. It is feared that such external carbon is a perturbation of nature’s delicately balanced current account of the carbon cycle and that such perturbation can cause an unnatural accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere such as to cause unnatural man-made and therefore dangerous global warming and climate change. This aspect of AGW theory is not addressed in the Ford lecture and surely plays no role in CI priorities. Instead, AGW theory is seen only in terms of CI goals and priorities. The sources of carbon mentioned are all natural and the exchange of carbon between these sources and the atmosphere and oceans is also natural and not foreign to nature and therefore not a perturbation of the carbon cycle. They are instead the carbon cycle itself. The only unnatural role for humans in terms of deforestation is the encouragement given to Indonesia by climate science to clear forests for palm oil plantations and the production of climate friendly biofuels that can be derived from palm oil. The climate change presentation given by Harrison Ford is derived completely from the CI agenda and its priorities with little or no understanding of or relevance to the theory of AGW. This climate change presentation serves as a high profile example of an unusual aspect of the climate change movement in that it has attracted and become kind of a “promised land” for environmental, ecological, and new age activism groups of all colors. They all talk about climate change but in the details what they are talking about are really their own agenda placed into a climate change context.

 

 

 

[LIST OF POSTS ON THIS SITE]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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  1. According to researchers at University College London, “One surprising effect of European colonization of the Americas was a cooling of the Earth’s climate that explains the Little Ice Age (LIA). The LIA is described in a related post [LINK] . These researchers estimate that the indigenous population of the Americas at the end of the 15th century was 60 million. Over the next century, this population declined by some 90 percent, largely due to epidemics introduced by Europeans. As a result, around 215,000 square miles of cultivated land, roughly the area of France, was left fallow and reverted to forest. This sucked up enough carbon dioxide—a greenhouse gas that traps heat in the atmosphere—to lead to cooling. This process took place amid an extended cold stretch known as the Little Ice Age, which lasted from around 1250 to 1850. Other factors that contributed to cooling during this period included numerous widespread volcanic eruptions and natural fluctuations in solar radiation. But, Koch says, the effects of colonization played a key role in driving temperatures down in the early seventeenth century, adding, “This is thought to be the coolest part of the Little Ice Age.”
  2. This assessment likely derives from a decline in atmospheric CO2 concentration of ≈10 ppm from ≈282 ppm in ≈1580 to ≈271.6 ppm in ≈1612  as seen in the chart below. This drop of 10.4ppm in atmospheric CO2 implies a temperature decline of ≈0.12C over a period of 32 years or 0.00375C/year by way of climate sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 at the Manabe climate sensitivity value of λ=2. lawdomeco2
  3. The paleo temperature record for the Northern Hemisphere in Mann etal 2008 is shown in the chart below. Here we find a correspondingly undetectable change in temperature from 1580 to 1612.      mann2008chart
  4. The data presented above is consistent with the assessment that there was a minor CO2 decline of ≈10 ppm during the time of the European settlement of North America. However, the attribution of the change to European colonization is speculative and its proposed contribution to the the cooling from the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) to the Little Ice Age (LIA) is inconsistent with the minute amount of cooling implied by the climate sensitivity and the absence of cooling in the paleo record shown above.
  5. CONCLUSION: We find no evidence to support the attribution of the 10 ppm drop in atmospheric CO2 from 1580 to 1612 to the European colonization of North America or for its alleged contribution as a cause of the Little Ice Age. Without the necessary supporting data, the proposed relationship between European colonization of North America, the drop in atmospheric CO2, and its contribution to the Little Ice Age proposed in the research paper appear speculative.
  6. Related posts: [MWP]  [LIA] .

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  1. CITATION: Wilkerson, J., Dobosy, R., Sayres, D. S., Healy, C., Dumas, E., Baker, B., and Anderson, J. G.: Permafrost nitrous oxide emissions observed on a landscape scale using the airborne eddy-covariance method, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 4257-4268, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-4257-2019, 2019. ABSTRACT: The microbial by-product nitrous oxide (N2O), a potent greenhouse gas and ozone depleting substance, has conventionally been assumed to have minimal emissions in permafrost regions. This assumption has been questioned by recent in situ studies which have demonstrated that some geologic features in permafrost may, in fact, have elevated emissions comparable to those of tropical soils. However, these recent studies, along with every known in situ study focused on permafrost N2O fluxes, have used chambers to examine small areas (less than 50 square meters). In late August 2013, we used the airborne eddy-covariance technique to make in situ N2O flux measurements over the North Slope of Alaska from a low-flying aircraft spanning a much larger area: around 310 square km. We observed large variability of N2O fluxes with many areas exhibiting negligible emissions. Still, the daily mean averaged over our flight campaign was 3.8 (2.2–4.7) mg N2O m−2 d−1 with the 90 % confidence interval shown in parentheses. If these measurements are representative of the whole month, then the permafrost areas we observed emitted a total of around 0.04–0.09 g m−2 for August, which is comparable to what is typically assumed to be the upper limit of yearly emissions for these regions. FULL TEXT: [LINK] .
  2. INTERPRETATION OF THESE FINDINGS IN TERMS OF CLIMATE CHANGE APOCALYPSE:  “Emissions from thawing Arctic permafrost may be 12 times higher than thought, scientists say. ‘This needs to be taken more seriously than it is right now,’ says author of new study. [LINK]  .  “Emissions from thawing Arctic permafrost may be 12 times higher than previously thought, scientists have discovered.  #ClimateBreakdown #EcologicalEmergency” [LINK] . 
  3. TESTABLE IMPLICATION: The extreme heat trapping effect of N2O in conjunction with the large outflow of emissions from thawing Arctic permafrost in the North Slope of Alaska on August 2, 2013 is interpreted in the sources cited above as a dangerous positive feedback of greenhouse effect global warming. The testable implication is that this extreme event should have left a mark in the temperature record that should show a warming event. 
  4. A TEST FOR A TEMPERATURE EFFECT: Shown below are UAH satellite (deseasonalized) temperature anomalies for land in the North Polar region for each of the twelve calendar months in the sample period 2008-2018. The year 2013 falls in the middle of the study period 2008-2018.
  5. Figure 1 shows full span trends for each of the 12 calendar months. These trends are depicted graphically in the GIF image of Figure 3 which cycles through the twelve calendar months. The month of August, when the N2O emission was detected, does not appear to be different from the other months in either Figure 1 or Figure 3.
  6. Figure 2 is a GIF image that displays the trend across the twelve calendar months for each year in the study period 2008-2018. Nothing unusual is found in the year 2013 when the N2O emission was detected.
  7. The testable implication of the N2O event of August of 2013 is that if the GHG effect of the released N2O had an effect on temperature there ought to be something unusual about the month of August in Figure 3 or something unusual about the year 2013 in Figure 2. No such evidence is found in the data.
  8. Figure 1: Full span trends for each calendar month  fullspanTrends
  9. Figure 2: Temperature trends across calendar months January-December for each year in the sample period. The vertical red line marks the year 2013.    years-gif
  10. Figure 3: Temperature trends across the sample period 2008-2018 for each calendar month. The vertical red line marks the month of August.      months-gif
  11. CONCLUSION: It is noteworthy that the authors were able to detect a large release of N2O from thawing permafrost in the North Slope of Alaska but their further interpretation of the data in terms catastrophic runaway positive feedback warming due to the extreme GHG effect of N2O is not evident in the data.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  1. It may not seem obvious but we are facing a man-made disaster on a global scale. In the twenty years since I first started talking about the impact of climate change on our world, conditions have changed far faster than I ever imagined. OK so I was wrong, but you have to believe me this time around because I am a senile old man whom you are surely too young to judge. bandicam 2019-04-19 17-09-43-123
  2. Before we started to burn coal, the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was about 280 ppm. It is now over  400 ppm. And the planet gets warmer and warmer. If you are a climate scientist that flunked statistics in college, these data provide scientific evidence that burning coal caused atmospheric CO2 to rise and that rising atmospheric CO2 caused the planet to become warmer. bandicam 2019-04-19 17-45-13-583
  3. We are seeing the impacts of climate change now play out in real time. They are no longer subtle. It is not necessary for climate science to come up with empirical evidence that is scientifically and statistically valid because the evidence is no longer subtle. It is obvious. bandicam 2019-04-19 18-26-36-486
  4. We’re not just talking about inconvenience. We’re talking about people’s lives and the lives of their communities being damaged. These things are a little too important to quibble about data and evidence and the scientific method, don’t you think? bandicam 2019-04-19 18-32-13-682
  5. Connect the dots. It is happening. It is happening in your world and it is happening in my world. And let’s be very clear about this! It is going to get much much worse. Not sure how I know that but it just has to doesn’t it? It is an emotional issue and it is surely cruel and uncaring to demand scientific rigor in these things. Can’t you see how worried I am? Is that not evidence enough?bandicam 2019-04-19 18-39-10-803
  6. It may sound frightening, but the scientific evidence is that if we have not taken dramatic action within the next decade we could face irreversible damage to the natural world and the collapse of our societies. Hope you are scared by now because I am running out of scary stuff. bandicam 2019-04-19 17-09-43-123
  7. There are thousands of scientists around the world in almost every single country working to understand what will happen in the future if we don’t act, we don’t do more. They predict that if we carry on as we are now, where CO2 continues to increase, we would hit 1.5C of warming sometime between 2040 and 2050. All of this is true because there there are thousands of scientists around the world working on it.bandicam 2019-04-19 19-04-14-722
  8. We are on course to go through 1.5 degrees in just a few decades time; and the models do differ slightly as to exactly when. Not long after that we are on a trajectory to go through 2 degrees.  OMG OMG. Are you scared yet? I was hoping that the 2 degrees would scare the shit out of you. bandicam 2019-04-19 19-14-33-917
  9. It really becomes difficult to see at such levels of warming how we’re going to maintain our agriculture such that the population of the world can actually feed itself. This means that climate change will wipe out your food. You will have nothing to eat but barbecued climate scientists and we don’t really taste good. Sorry. bandicam 2019-04-19 19-19-46-907
  10. Related post: Spurious correlations in climate science:  https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/05/27/spurious/
  11. Related post: Confirmation bias in climate science:  https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/03/confirmationbias/
  12. Related post: How to sell an interglacial as Armageddon https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/12/21/eemian/
  13. Related post: How the planet can fuck with the planet without the help of humans: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/10/28/petm/
  14. Related post: The fundamentals of eco wacko fear mongering: https://tambonthongchai.com/2010/05/16/171/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In the climate change debate, critics of AGW often present a chart of absolute temperature measurements that appear to contain no visible evidence of a long term trend as shown in the chart below. The chart is used to imply that the warming trend claimed by AGW theorists is fake and misleading because it is not seen in the data.

 

absolute-temp

This line of reasoning as a challenge to AGW theory contains a fatal statistical flaw.

Temperature data taken at weather stations contain a diurnal cycle, a seasonal cycle, and random natural variations. Along with these they may also contain a long term trend over a period of many years. Typically, the diurnal and seasonal cycles represent more than 80-90% of the total variance in the actual temperature measurements. The remaining 10-20% or so consists mostly of unexplained random variations.

In cases where a statistically significant trend is found with OLS linear regression, no more than a small portion of the variance, around 3%-5% or so, can be ascribed to a long term warming or cooling trend. It is for these reasons that in the study of long term temperature trends over many decades, regression coefficients for long term trends are relatively a very weak feature of the time series that must be teased out of the data net of the greater diurnal, seasonal, and random variations.

The study of long term temperature trends must therefore be carried out after the diurnal cycle and the seasonal cycle are removed from the data. The diurnal cycle may be removed by taking daily means or by studying either the daily maximum or daily minimum temperatures as shown in a related post [LINK] . The seasonal cycle can be removed by studying one calendar month at a time [LINK] or by computing a de-seasonalized annual mean either with dummy variables to represent calendar months; or by subtracting temperatures in a reference period to compute what is referred to as “temperature anomalies”. A related post presents a critical evaluation of the temperature anomaly procedure [LINK] .

 

It is only in the absence of the much larger diurnal and seasonal cycles that a trend, if any, can become visible to the naked eye as shown in the chart below. Although the trend represents a small portion of the total variance, its persistence over a long period of many years can have significant effects as seen in the Little Ice Age (LIA) described in a related post [LINK] . The LIA was a period of great hardship for Europeans. Canals and rivers were frozen, growth of sea ice around Iceland closed down harbors and shipping, hailstorms and snowstorms were heavy and frequent, and road and water transport was made difficult or impossible. Agricultural failure and consequent starvation and death devastated Europe. The Scandinavian colonies in Greenland starved to death and disappeared. And yet it was the creation of a long term cooling trend that explained about 3% of the total variance and that could not have been visible to the naked eye in a plot of temperature measurements that contained the diurnal and seasonal cycles.

 

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END OF THE WORLD BY CLIMATE CHANGE  

  1. Sixth Mass Extinction: Sixth mass extinction could destroy life as we know it. Alarming declines in the number of insects, vertebrates and plant species around the world have raised fears that we are in the midst of a sixth major extinction that could cause a collapse of the natural ecosystems we rely upon to survive. Urgent international action is needed to halt this potentially catastrophic decline in biodiversity, according to Professor Georgina Mace, head of the Centre for Biodiversity and Environmental Research at University College London, UK. While Prof. Mace believes that we’re only on the brink of this extinction, she says the threat is so severe that biodiversity loss needs to be addressed on a global scale in a similar way to climate change. The evidence from all of the recent studies … indicates it is increasing. We’re losing biodiversity more quickly than we did in the past. ‘If you look at extinction rates, which is hard because you need to be sure something is really extinct, they are probably 100-1,000 times higher than in pre-human times. ‘Another way of measuring (biodiversity) is to look at the abundance of life rather than numbers of species. For vertebrates (birds, fish, amphibians, reptiles, mammals) there is a fairly good estimate that more than 50% of the vertebrate abundance has been lost in the past 50 years. The information for invertebrates and plants is less good, but there is some evidence to suggest insects are declining just as quickly, if not more so. One recent paper showed the mass of insects is falling by 2.5% a year. For methodological reasons, this is likely to be an over-estimate, but there can be little doubt that certain insect groups are undergoing very significant declines. ‘Then we are also losing the interactions between these species.’ [LINK]
  2. Sixth mass extinction is here. There is no longer any doubt: We are entering a mass extinction that threatens humanity’s existence. That is the bad news at the center of a new study by a group of scientists including Paul Ehrlich, the Bing Professor of Population Studies in biology and a senior fellow at the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment. Ehrlich and his co-authors call for fast action to conserve threatened species, populations and habitat, but warn that the window of opportunity is rapidly closing. “[The study] shows without any significant doubt that we are now entering the sixth great mass extinction event,” Ehrlich said. Although most well known for his positions on human population, Ehrlich has done extensive work on extinctions going back to his 1981 book, Extinction: The Causes and Consequences of the Disappearance of Species. He has long tied his work on coevolution, on racial, gender and economic justice, and on nuclear winter with the issue of wildlife populations and species loss. There is general agreement among scientists that extinction rates have reached levels unparalleled since the dinosaurs died out 66 million years ago. However, some have challenged the theory, believing earlier estimates rested on assumptions that overestimated the crisis. [LINK]
  3. A Cosmic Climate Change Scenario: Alien apocalypse: Can any civilization make it through climate change? [LINK] :  Every civilization that may have arisen in the cosmos lasts only a few centuries before it falls to the inevitable climate change that civilization triggers. Astrobiology is the study of life and its possibilities in a planetary context including ‘exo-civilizations’ or what we usually call aliens. Discussions about climate change rarely take place in this broader context — one that considers the probability that this is not the first time in cosmic history that a planet and its biosphere have evolved into something like what we’ve created on Earth. If we’re not the universe’s first civilization that means there are likely to be rules for how the fate of a young civilization like our own progresses. As a civilization’s population grows, it uses more and more of its planet’s resources. By consuming the planet’s resources, the civilization changes the planet’s conditions. In short, civilizations and planets don’t evolve separately from one another; they evolve interdependently, and the fate of our own civilization depends on how we use Earth’s resources. In order to illustrate how civilization-planet systems co-evolve, Frank and his collaborators developed a mathematical model to show ways in which a technologically advanced population and its planet might develop together. By thinking of civilizations and planets — even alien ones — as a whole, researchers can better predict what might be required for the human project of civilization to survive. The point is to recognize that driving climate change may be something generic. The laws of physics demand that any young population, building an energy-intensive civilization like ours, is going to have feedback on its planet. Seeing climate change in this cosmic context may give us better insight into what’s happening to us now and how to deal with it.
  4. Sir David Attenborough believes we are ­running out of time to save the planet unless urgent action is taken to tackle the global warming he fears is destroying Earth. In his starkest warning yet about our future existence, the veteran broadcaster has joined other experts in calling for an end to the use of fossil fuels that pump choking carbon monoxide into the atmosphere. We have pumped so much carbon dioxide into our atmosphere that our world is now 1C hotter than it was in pre-industrial times. “Climate change can wipe out an entire species, 8% of species are now at threat of extinction solely due to climate change. “With the loss of even the smallest organisms we destabilise and risk collapsing the world’s ecosystems, the networks that support the whole of life on Earth. “We stand at a unique point in our planet’s history. One where we must all share ­responsibility for the future of life on Earth. We are running out of time but there is still hope. If we better understand the threat we face, the more likely it is we can avoid such a catastrophic future. Former director at the NASA Goddard ­Institute for Space Studies, Dr James Hansen, warned about climate change dangers in 1988. But he says leaders ignored the evidence and precious time was lost. Dr Hansen adds: “It would’ve been easy to solve the problem if we started to make fossil fuels more expensive and develop ­technologies to replace them. The graceful polar bear is one of the thousands of species which faces extinction thanks to careless regard for the environment. But we didn’t do that. And now there are consequences. It is an uphill battle today, with US president Donald Trump dismissing global warming as “a hoax”. Harvard professor of science Naomi Oreskes says: “Organisations who had the most to lose were fossil fuel companies, making huge profits. They undertook a concerted campaign to confuse the science and message. The cycle of denial has worked. And even today, the US president has said [climate change] is not true. One of the most obvious places climate change is taking hold is at the poles, where ice is melting at an alarming rate and threatening the existence of wildlife such as polar bears. University of Leeds climate scientist Professor Andrew ­Shepherd says: “It’s too much for Earth’s ice to withstand. Things are worse than we’d expected. The Greenland ice sheet has lost four trillion tons of ice and it’s losing five times as much ice today as it was 25 years ago. Last year UN experts gave us 12 years to stop a climate change ­catastrophe. At the current rate the planet would heat up 1.5C by 2040Any hotter would bring bad storms, floods, heatwaves and droughts. [DAILY MIRROR]  
  5. The five ways the human race could be WIPED OUT because of global warming: The deadly possible effects of global warming have been laid bare in a new book that reveals how disease, starvation and rising tides could kill off human beings. ‘FALTER: Has the Human Game Begun to Play Itself Out?’ lists the lethal, and unexpected, ways that humans could become extinct – within a few generations Melting ice caps could bring back disease locked in permafrost – killing swathes of people. Natural disasters could be triggered by collapsing ice caps – with 65ft waves wiping out any coastal life in its path – repeating what happened 8,000 years ago Cereal crops – the cornerstone of human sustenance – could dry out because of global warming with plants unable to grow in parched new lands.
  6. The Uninhabitable Earth: Famine, economic collapse, a sun that cooks us: What climate change could wreak sooner than you think. By David Wallace-Wells. It is, I promise, worse than you think. If your anxiety about global warming is dominated by fears of sea-level rise, you are barely scratching the surface of what terrors are possible, even within the lifetime of a teenager today. And yet the swelling seas — and the cities they will drown — have so dominated the picture of global warming, and so overwhelmed our capacity for climate panic, that they have occluded our perception of other threats, many much closer at hand. Rising oceans are bad, in fact very bad; but fleeing the coastline will not be enough. Indeed, absent a significant adjustment to how billions of humans conduct their lives, parts of the Earth will likely become close to uninhabitable, and other parts horrifically inhospitable, as soon as the end of this century. The Uninhabitable Earth is the most terrifying book I have ever read. Its subject is climate change, and its method is scientific, but its mode is Old Testament. The book is a meticulously documented, white-knuckled tour through the cascading catastrophes that will soon engulf our warming planet.
  7. George Monbiot video (above): Climate change is eating the planet. We have to go straight to the heart of capitalism and overthrow it to save the planet from climate breakdown and ecological breakdown.
  8. Climate Change Can Lead To The Extinction Of 50% Of The Animal And Plant Species By The End Of The Century. March 16, 2018 ·
  9. The end of coffee: As temperatures rise and droughts intensify, good coffee will become increasingly difficult to grow and expensive to buy.  TIME Magazine, June 21, 2018.
  10. “The scientists are unanimous on this. We have no more than 12 years to take incredibly bold action on this crisis,” O’Rourke said. “Can we make it? I don’t know. It’s up to every one of us. Do you want to make it?”  Posted Mar 15, 2019 by Michael L. Brown
  11. The End of the World Is Coming, and You Are Responsible. New climate-change narratives ordain humans with godly powers to undo and repair the planet. Is it science, or a new religion? By Sean Cooper
  12. ‘The world is going to end in 12 years if we don’t address climate change,’ Ocasio-Cortez says.
  13. It is absolutely time to panic about climate change. Author David Wallace-Wells on the dystopian hellscape that awaits us. “It is, I promise, worse than you think.” That was was the first line of David Wallace-Wells’s horrifying 2017 essay in New York magazine about climate change. It was an attempt to paint a very real picture of our not-too-distant future, a future filled with famines, political chaos, economic collapse, fierce resource competition, and a sun that cooks us.
  14. It’s The End of the World, Again: Climate Change and The Collapse of Civilizations. Anthropogenic, or human-induced, climate change and the growing crisis caused by our dependence on unsustainable energy practices should be focal points for any discussion about the future for our species.The man-made climate change crisis we face today is similar in scale to many natural climactic events that led to the fall of our mightiest civilizations. From the dawn of man, how we deal with climate change and utilize our resources has always defined our history and it will define our future.
  15. The Problem With Putting a Price on the End of the World: Economists have workable policy ideas for addressing climate change. But what if they’re politically impossible? Climate change is a threat like no other. Fatal heat waves, droughts, wildfires and severe hurricanes are all becoming more common, and they are almost certain to accelerate. Avoiding horrific damage, as a United Nations panel of scientists recently concluded, will require changes in human behavior that have “no documented historic precedent.”
  16. The majority of C02 emitted from burning a single tonne of coal or oil today will be absorbed over a few centuries by the oceans and vegetation, the remaining 25% will still be affecting the climate in 1,000 years. It will then require thousands and thousands more years for its complete absorption through the natural climate cycle. As Archer puts it, “the climatic impacts of releasing fossil fuel C02 to the atmosphere will last longer than Stonehenge, longer than time capsules, longer than nuclear waste”.
  17. he Copenhagen Diagnosis: According to THE Copenhagen Diagnosis, regardless of when a peak in global emissions finally occurs, the global temperature cannot be expected to stop rising until several centuries later, due to the extremely long life cycle of C02. The carbon that we are releasing into the atmosphere today is in the process of ‘programming’ a potential 2-5 meters of sea level rise by around the year 2300 and “even a thousand years after reaching a zero-emission society, temperatures will remain elevated.
  18. Proof that climate change causes collapse of civilizations:  Vikings arrived and thrived in Greenland during the medieval warm period and when the Little Ice Age began in the early 14th century, it became increasingly difficult to farm. By the middle of the 16th century, the changing climate had contributed to the collapse of the Viking civilization on Greenland.
  19. Proof that climate change causes collapse of civilizations: Mesopotamia, the cradle of civilization, was home to the Sumerian, Akkadian, Babylonian, and Assyrian empires. Summers in Ancient Mesopotamia were hot and dry while winters were cooler and wetter with rainfall sufficient enough to allow for rich agricultural economy. Climate changes gradually reduced rainfall and caused the collapse of civilization in Mesopotamia.
  20. Proof that climate change causes collapse of civilizations:  The Khmer Empire flourished between 802- 1431 CE. Its capital of Angkor Wat was one of the most ancient hydraulic cities, with a sophisticated system for irrigation to ensure optimal water reserves for the population’s growing needs. In the 14th and 15th centuries, climate change caused decades of severe drought struck, interspersed with violent monsoon floods, bringing about political and social unrest which eventually led to the collapse of the Khmer civilization.
  21. Proof that climate change causes collapse of civilizations:  Classic Maya civilization city states flourished during the classical period, starting in the 4th century CE. Between 660 and 900 CE, a drying trend led to agricultural decline, increased warfare, and less trade. A drought lasting between 1020- 1100 CE occurred in the midst of the population collapse, which marked the definitive end of the Classic Mayan culture and a collapse of the Mayan civilization.
  22. Proof that climate change causes collapse of civilizations:  The Indus Valley Civilization existed between 3300-1700 BCE, developed sophisticated infrastructure and urban planning, and the population is estimated to have reached over 5 million. A 200-year drought that began around 2000 BCE made agriculture unsustainable, and cities were gradually abandoned.The civilisations affected could not anticipate the change in their natural environment.
  23. The global nature of the climate change risk we face today bodes ill for humanity. If our civilisation collapses on this planet, there is currently no alternative location where humanity may thrive. However, scientific and technological developments have made us more aware both of the risk we face, and of our influence on it. As a result, for the first time in history, we are in a position to reduce and possibly avoid the risk of civilisation collapse due to climate change. Global governance is a process of cooperative leadership that brings together national governments, multilateral public agencies, and civil society to achieve commonly accepted goals. It provides strategic direction to address global challenges.
  24. Related post on the collapse of civilizations:  COLLAPSE OF CIVILIZATIONS

 

 

 

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A HUMAN OBSESSION WITH THE END OF THE WORLD

  1. In the context of the current alarm about catastrophic climate change that may end this civilization (“Alien apocalypse: Can any civilization make it through climate change?, University of Rochester, 2018, in Science Daily, LINK TO FULL TEXT ), it is noted that religions prior to the Late Bronze Age Collapse (LBAC) do not contain a Judgement Day “end of the world” scenario but religions that got started in the early Iron Age right after the Dark Ages of the LBAC do contain an end of the world of some kind. It is likely that our obsession with the end of the world scenario, now in the form of human caused climate change with fossil fuel emissions, is a distant genetic memory of the LBAC. It may be a form of mental disorder that has afflicted some more than others.
  2. Moral decay in society is interpreted as the end of the world. Assyrian clay tablet dating to approximately 2800 BC: “Our earth is degenerate in these latter days. There are signs that the world is speedily coming to an end. Bribery and corruption are common.”
  3. Romans feared that the city would be destroyed in the 120th year of its founding. There was a myth that 12 eagles had revealed to Romulus a mystical number representing the lifetime of Rome, and some early Romans hypothesized that each eagle represented 10 years. So they expected Rome to be destroyed around 365 AUC (389 BC)
  4. How it Ends: The Ancient Roots of Doomsday Prophecies and End of the World Beliefs: Hollywood’s obsession with the End of Times is not over yet – Armageddon, Deep Impact, Doomsday, Legion, Thor: Ragnarok and 28 Days Later, are just a few of the blockbusters, out of hundreds, that deal with mankind’s demise. And now, yet another apocalyptic film is set to be released. ‘ How it Ends ’ imagines how a sudden societal collapse could occur in the modern U.S. as a result of a geological apocalypse. But man’s obsession with the end of the world is not a new one. Doomsday prophecies are as old as recorded time. For as long as humans have existed, there has been a fear of an apocalypse or ‘end of times’, when the gods wish vengeance upon their people, when humans pay for the sins of their fathers and forefathers, and when the demons of the world rise up and devour all that is good. Prophecies of the end of times stem from the mythologies of civilizations past: the Norse story of Ragnarök, the tale of Noah and the Flood, and the Biblical apocalypse. Though these civilizations are all thousands of years in the past, the same fear that drove them to make these myths—the fear of the unknown—continues to haunt the human race today. [SOURCE]
  5. In ancient Egypt, within 200 years of the Queen Mother’s death, the Nile no longer flooded and drought consumed the kingdom. This contributed to the disintegration of the era of the pyramid builders. Without floods, there were no good harvests. The find is both a historical echo and a warning. You can find many paths to our modern world, which is also facing many internal and external challenges,” he argues. “By studying the past you can learn much more about the present. We’re not different. People always think ‘this time it’s different,’ and that ‘we’re different’. We are not. So are we too on the brink of disaster? It’s possible, says Barta. But with the findings, and hopefully the lessons we can learn from Khentkaus’ tomb, he hopes we can take another path. “If we accept collapse as a fact, we will understand collapses as being a part of the natural course of things, and one of the needed steps in the process leading towards ‘resurrection,'” he argues. “Then, we shall be able to do something about it.”
  6. Catastrophic events are about to unfold on the world scene, and the international stage has now been fully set for them to occur. people and nations are complacent, mainly asleep, or willingly ignorant of what is now taking place. Instead, they are selfishly focused inwardly upon their own special interests and protectionism as the world is plunged into a third world war. We are literally at the point where a great implosion in the stock market, commodities, banking, and currencies is about to plunge us into a full-scale global economic collapse that will push the nations into WWIII. Massive thermonuclear destruction is about to become a reality!
  7. Futurist John Smart of Acceleration Watch estimates that a technological singularity will take place around the year 2040, when technological advancement reaches asymptotic levels. It will be an apocalyptic event.
  8. Pyramidologist Max Toth predicts the physical reincarnation of Jesus Christ occurring in 2040. Like other pyramidologists, he used the dimensions of the Great Pyramid’s passageways to predict future events.
  9. In her book The Call to Glory, psychic Jeane Dixon says that 2020-2037 or thereabouts is when we will see the Second Coming of Christ. The Battle of Armageddon will take place in 2020.
  10. The Raëlians are working hard to establish an embassy in Jerusalem in anticipation of the 2035 arrival of aliens called “elohim”, who will usher in a New Age.
  11. According to an article published in Science magazine in 1960, 2026 is the year that the world’s population will reach infinity, a result of the doomsday equation. It will be the end of humanity and the end of the world.
  12. Ian Gurney predicts in his book The Cassandra Prophecy – Armageddon Approaches that the “final date, Judgement Day, the end of mankind’s time on this planet, is less than twenty two years away” from 2001, which means that the world will end in 2023 long before the climate change end year of 2030.
  13. According to the Sword of God Brotherhood the “dying time” will come in 2017, and only members of the cult will survive. Everyone else will “perish in hellfire.”
  14. In 1143, St. Malachy prophesied that there would only be 112 more popes left before the end of the world. This timetable implies that the world will end in the early 21st century.
  15. Dec 23, 2012 is the endpoint of the ancient Mayan calendar. Some interpret it to signify the end of the world. There’s no direct evidence the Mayans themselves believed this to be true.
  16. The world ended on Dec 21, 2012 according to Terence McKenna who combines Mayan chronology with a New Age science called Novelty Theory to conclude that the collision of an asteroid or some “trans-dimensional object” with the Earth, or alien contact, or a solar explosion, or the transformation of the Milky Way into a quasar, or some other “ultranovel” event will occur on this day.
  17. The world ended on Dec 31, 2011. In an interesting parallel to the Harmonic Convergence concept, Solara Antara Amaa-ra, leader of the “11:11 Doorway” movement, claims that there’s a “doorway of opportunity” lasting from January 11, 1992 to December 31, 2011 in which humanity is given the final chance to rid itself of evil and attain a higher level of consciousness, or doom will strike.
  18. The world ended on May 21, 2011 according to Harold Camping, whose rapture predictions failed in 1994 and 1995. His prediction attracted major publicity. “The Bible Guarantees It”, the billboards proclaimed, and thousands of people around the world believed it.
  19. According to Taiwanese prophet “Professor Wang” Taiwan was destroyed in a 14.0 earthquake in 2011, triggering a tsunami that killed millions of people. By the way 2011 is also a date for the end of the world by its entry into the photon belt. “The Photon Belt is a spiritual belief, largely linked to some parts of the New Age Movement that postulates that a belt or ring of photons is going to envelop the Earth, causing a cataclysm and/or initiating a spiritual transition, with the time period leading up to “the Shift” referred to as “The Quickening.” The concept of the photon belt also ties into various phenomena including belief in extraterrestrial intelligence and 2012 millenarianism” (Wikipedia).
  20. The earth ended in 2009 According to Earth changes prophetess Lori Adaile Toye of the I AM America Foundation, a series of Earth changes beginning in 1992 and ending in 2009 will cause much of the world to be submerged, and only 1/3 of America’s population will survive. You can even order a map of the flooded USA from her website!
  21. The world ended on Mar 21, 2008 according to the Lord’s Witnesses who used numerology to demonstrate that “the end of the world is 2008 March 21st.” They also claim that the United Nations will take over the world between March 26 and April 24, 2001, and afterward nobody will be able to buy or sell without the Mark of the Beast!
  22. The world ended in 2007 according to Pat Robertson in his book The New Millennium; and also according to Aug Thomas Chase uses Bible prophecy, numerology, Y2K, Bible codes, astrology, Cassini paranoia, Antichrist speculation, news events, New Age mysticism, the shapes of countries, and Hale-Bopp to show that Armageddon will happen around the year 2007. This year is also the choice for the end of the world by Marilyn J. Agee who said that an asteroid will hit the Earth to end it.
  23. The world ended in 2006 in a nuclear war holocaust started by Syria according to Michael Drosnin in his book The Bible Codes (O’Shea p. 178). Here’s an excerpt from Drosnin’s book: “I checked ‘World War’ and ‘atomic holocaust’ against all three ways to write each Hebrew year for the next 120 years. Out of 360 possible matches for each of the two expressions, only two years matched both – 5760 and 5766, in the modern calendar the years 2000 and 2006. Rips later checked the statistics for the matches of ‘World War’ and ‘atomic holocaust’ with those two years and agreed that the results were ‘exceptional.'”
    The British cult The Family believes the end will come in 2006.
  24. In the Christian tradition, the number 666 is described as the “mark of the beast”. In the year 1665 a plague wiped out a fifth of London’s population, leading many to predict the end of times and then in September 1666, a fire broke out in London. It spread and burned for three days destroying 13,000 buildings and tens of thousands of homes. It was thought to be the end of the world.
  25. The Zion’s Watch Tower Tract Society is a spiritual group now known as Jehovah’s Witnesses. The society’s founder, Charles Taze Russell, had previously predicted Christ’s invisible return in 1874, followed by anticipation of his Second Coming in 1914. When WW I broke out that year, Russell interpreted it as a sign of armageddon and the upcoming end of days or “the end of “Gentile times.”
  26. BRANCH DRAVIDIANS: In 1993 David Koresh led his Branch Davidian sect to its doom in a compound near Waco, Texas, in 1993. He convinced his followers that he was Christ and that they should hole up at what was called the Mount Carmel Center to prepare for the end of the world. When authorities learned that the Branch Davidians were allegedly holding a trove of weapons on the site and that there were possibly instances of abuse of women and children, they executed a search on the compound in February 1993. The Davidians fought back; four agents and six members of the sect were killed. Koresh persuaded his followers to remain at Mount Carmel and refuse to surrender. For 50 days, a tense standoff ensued. On April 19, the FBI stormed the compound, a fire erupted, and dozens of Davidians, including Koresh, died in the building.
  27. Y2K: It was the day that was supposed to finally prove what Luddites and other tech haters had been saying for so long: computers — not sin or religious prophecy come true — will bring us down. For months before the stroke of midnight on Jan. 1, 2000, analysts speculated that entire computer networks would crash, causing widespread dysfunction for a global population that had become irreversibly dependent on computers to hold, disseminate and analyze its most vital pieces of information. The problem was that many computers had been programmed to record dates using only the last two digits of every year, meaning that the year 2000 would register as the year 1900, totally screwing with the collective computerized mind.
  28. Late Great Planet Earth: Hal Lindsey‘s Late Great Planet Earth, which was the best-selling nonfiction book of the 1970s, predicted that the world would end sometime before Dec. 31, 1988. He cited a host of world events — nuclear war, the communist threat and the restoration of Israel — as reasons the end times were upon mankind. His later books, though less specific, suggested that believers not plan on being on Earth past the 1980s — then the 1990s and, of course, the 2000s. Edgar Whisenant published a book in 1988 called 88 Reasons Why the Rapture Will Be in 1988, which sold some 4.5 million copies. In 1989 Whisenant published another book, saying the Rapture would occur that year instead. The genre’s most popular tales are in the Left Behind series, written by Tim LaHaye and Jerry Jenkins, which provide a vivid fictional account of how Earth’s final days could go.
  29. The Anabaptists of Munster: The Anabaptists derived their name from the Latin for “one who baptizes over again”. In the 1530s, some Anabaptists assumed control of the German town of Munster and hailed it as a New Jerusalem awaiting the return of Christ. But the situation in Munster was far from the ideal Christian commonwealth. Jan Bockelson, a tailor from the Dutch city of Leiden, declared himself the “Messiah of the last days,” took multiple wives, issued coins that prophesied the coming apocalypse and in general made life hell for everyone in the city. The Anabaptists’ hold over Munster ended in a bloody siege in 1535.
  30. William Branham and the Pentecostal Prediction: Just before sunset on Feb. 28, 1963, residents of northwestern Arizona watched what the Arizona Republic called a “strikingly beautiful and mysterious cloud” glide across the desert. That same day, Pentecostal pastor William Branham who founded the post World War II faith healing movement, climbed Sunset Mountain and claimed he met with seven angels who revealed to him the meaning of the seven seals from the Book of Revelation. Days later, he preached seven sermons in seven nights, explaining the meaning of the seals and the seven visions he had received, leading him to predict that Jesus would return to Earth in 1977.
  31. A New Age belief cites 2012 as the year humans will undergo a physical and spiritual transformation, while some people predict that sometime that year, Earth will collide with a black hole or a planet named Nibiru. The most popular belief is attributed to the Mesoamerican Long Count calendar from the ancient Mayan civilization. Interpretations suggest that the fourth world, in which we live now, will end on Dec. 21, 2012. This belief inspired the disaster movie 2012.
  32. Harold Camping’s prediction that the world will end Saturday, May 21, 2011, is not his first such prediction. In 1992, the evangelist published a book called 1994?, which proclaimed that sometime in mid-September 1994, Christ would return and the world would end. Camping based his calculations on numbers and dates found in the Bible and, at the time, said that he was “99.9% certain” (high confidence) that his math was correct.
  33. The Millerites: In the 1840s William Miller began to preach about the world’s end, saying Jesus Christ would return for the long-awaited Second Coming and that Earth would be engulfed in fire sometime between March 21, 1843, and March 21, 1844. He circulated his message in public gatherings and with posters, printed newsletters and charts. Moved by those messages, as many as 100,000 “Millerites” sold their belongings between 1840 and 1844 and took to the mountains to wait for the end. When that end didn’t come, Miller changed the date to Oct. 22. When Oct. 23 rolled around, his loyal followers explained it away yet again and went on to form the Seventh-day Adventist movement.
  34. According to the Talmud in mainstream Orthodox Judaism, the Messiah will come within 6000 years of the creation of Adam, and the world may be destroyed 1000 years later. This would put the beginning of the period of desolation in 2239 and the end of the period of desolation in 3239.
  35. Ronald Weinland, who previously predicted the world would end in 2011, 2012, and then 2013, predicted in 2018 that Jesus would return on June 9, 2019 and set that date as the end of the world.
  36. Jeane Dixon predicted that Armageddon would take place in 2020. She has previously predicted that the world would end on February 4, 1962.
  37. F. Kenton Beshore, a pastor, says the world will end in 2021. He bases his prediction on the prior suggestion that Jesus would return in 1988, i.e., within one biblical generation (40 years) of the founding of Israel in 1948. Beshore argues that the prediction was correct, but that the definition of a biblical generation was incorrect and was actually 70–80 years, placing the second coming of Jesus between 2018 and 2028 and the rapture by 2021.
  38. The Messiah Foundation International predicts that the world will end in 2026, when an asteroid collides with Earth in accordance with Riaz Ahmed Gohar Shahi’s predictions in his book The Religion of God.
  39. Sun Myung Moon, the founder of the Unification Church predicted the Kingdom of Heaven would be established in the year 2000. Sun Myung Moon was a Korean religious leader and a messiah claimant. He was the founder of the Unification movement (members of which considered him and his wife Hak Ja Han to be their “True Parents”) and of its widely noted “Blessing” or mass wedding ceremony, and the author of its unique theology the Divine Principle.    sunmyungmoon

 

SOURCES: [ABHOTA] [TIME] [WIKIPEDIA] 

 

 

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[LIST OF POSTS ON THIS SITE]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FIGURE 1: UAH & BOM TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES COMPAREDtemp-gif

 

FIGURE 2: UAH & BOM DECADAL WARMING RATES COMPAREDdec-gif

 

FIGURE 3: THE CORRELATION TESTcorrelations

 

FIGURE 4: THE VARIANCE TEST FOR TEMPERATURETEMP-STDEV

 

FIGURE 5: THE VARIANCE TEST FOR DECADAL WARMINGDEC-STDEV

 

FIGURE 6: A TEST FOR BIAS: TEMPERATURE TEMP-BIAS

 

FIGURE 7: A TEST FOR BIAS: DECADAL WARMINGDEC-BIAS

 

 

[LIST OF POSTS ON THIS SITE]

 

 

  1. The University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) assessments of lower troposphere temperatures from satellite microwave sounding data since December 1978 are widely accepted as the most reliable estimates of regional and global temperatures in the study of global warming and climate change. In addition to global and zonal mean temperature estimates, the UAH also publishes country-specific land temperature means for the USA lower 48 states and for Australia. The utility of these country specific mean temperature estimates is that they may be used to test temperature reconstructions for the same region from the instrumental record particularly so in the context of widespread allegations by climate change skeptics of data tampering by the relevant meteorological organizations to show hotter conditions and/or higher rates of warming as a way of climate change activism. It is universally accepted that the UAH data are direct measurements and not reconstructions and that as such they contain no such reconstruction bias. It is therefore a useful exercise to compare the UAH data with regional reconstructions for evidence of data tampering in the reconstructions. This post is a comparison of the UAH and reconstruction temperatures for Australia in this context.
  2. The Australian temperature reconstruction by the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) is “calculated from a homogeneous temperature dataset (known as the Australian Climate Observations Reference Network-Surface Air Temperature, or ACORN-SAT, dataset) developed for monitoring climate variability and change in Australia.” In a recent work it was found that there is a high correlation of ρ=0.7 between  the two temperature anomaly series that rises to ρ=0.8 when precipitation corrections are made. The distance between the two temperature data sets is estimated with a standard deviation of their differences of σ=0.6. This work is available online [LINK] . The conclusion paragraph of the work says that “The UAH tropospheric temperatures and BOM surface temperatures in Australia are correlated, with similar variability (0.70 correlation). Accounting for anomalous rainfall conditions increases the correlation to 0.80. The Tsfc trends have a slightly greater warming trend than the tropospheric temperatures, but the reasons for this are unclear. Users of the UAH data should expect monthly differences between the UAH and BOM data of 0.6 deg. C or so on a rather routine basis (after correcting for their different 30-year baselines used for anomalies: BOM uses 1961-1990 and UAH uses 1981-2010).” 
  3. In this post we extend this analysis several ways. (1) The analysis is carried out for each of the twelve calendar months separately. It is shown in a separate post that the the behavior of temperatures in the calendar months contain significant differences [LINK] (2) A bias test is included because the standard deviation of σ=0.6 found in the reference study does not contain information about whether these differences are symmetrical or whether there is a bias such that one source tends to be higher than the other. (3) The standard deviation test is extended to compare the standard deviation of both sources taken together with the average standard deviation of the two sources taken one at a time. The test determines whether the two sources are very different (4) The study is carried out for both temperature and for decadal trends (the OLS trend in a moving ten-year window that moves one year at a time. (5) Because the study is carried out separately for the calendar months such that all twelve calendar months may be compared, the study is limited to whole years of data with a revised sample period of 1/1/1978 to 31/12/2018.
  4. The data to be analyzed are presented one calendar month at a time in Figure 1 and Figure 2. These Figures are GIF images that cycle through the twelve calendar months. Figure 1 presents temperatures and Figure 2 displays their decadal moving trends. The blue lines in these charts are BOM data and the red lines are the UAH data. Some differences between the two series can be visualized in these charts along with significant differences in these results among the calendar months – underscoring the utility of studying temperature phenomena one calendar month at a time.
  5. Figure 3 presents the results of the correlation test. The left frame of Figure 3 displays correlations between BOM and UAH temperatures and the right frame displays the correlations between their decadal trends for each of the twelve calendar months. As reported in the reference study (paragraph#2), very high correlations are seen. Also seen in these charts are large differences among calendar months and significant differences between temperature correlations and decadal trend correlations. Generally temperature correlations tend to be higher than decadal trend correlations and the austral spring months of July to November show high correlations in both temperature and decadal trends while February, June, and December tend to show lower correlations. Of particular note is the oddity of a complete collapse in December trend correlations. The relevant source data for December (low correlation) and September (high correlation) are displayed below.

     

  6. Figure 4 and Figure 5 present a standard deviation test similar to that in the reference studies but with several important differences. The left frame of these charts shows the standard deviation for the two series taken together in red and the average of the standard deviations taken separately in blue. The comparison shows whether the temperatures in the two series are very different (stdev together >> stdev separately) or whether they tend to have similar values (stdev together ≈ stdev separately). In the case of temperatures (Figure 4) we find that the values tend to be different but the same test for decadal trends shows no real difference in the magnitudes of decadal trends.
  7. The variance tests in Figure 4 and Figure 5 tell us whether the values are different but provide no information on whether the differences are in random directions or whether there is a bias such that the data from one source tends to be higher or tends to be lower than the data from the other source. This information is extracted in the bias tests in Figure 6 and Figure 7. The left frame of these charts shows plots the data for each calendar month on the dame chart across the sample period 1979-2018. The right panel plots the sum of the difference (DIFF=BOM-UAH) for each calendar month across all 40 years in the sample period. If the differences BOM-UAH are randomly distributed around zero their  sum will be close to zero but if there is a bias BOM>UAH the sum will be positive and for the bias BOM<UAH the sum will be negative. The bias test for temperature shows clear evidence of a positive bias such that BOM temperatures tend to be higher than UAH temperatures particularly in April and May and July through September where very high bias values of 17 to 27 are seen. However, the bias test for decadal trends shows no bias with very small bias values < 1 both positive and negative. This result indicates that there may be a systematic methodological difference in how temperature anomalies are computed such that the the bias in temperature anomalies tend to be higher for BOM in a way that does not affect decadal trends. A possible source for this bias is a difference in the reference period used computing temperature anomalies. This finding is supported by the conclusions in the reference study described in paragraph#2.
  8. CONCLUSION: Mean temperatures for Australia computed by the BOM in a reconstruction from the instrumental record for the period 1979-2018 are compared with UAH satellite temperatures, a known reliable and unbiased source. The comparison does not show systematic differences that one would expect to find if the BOM reconstruction had been arbitrarily altered perhaps to show higher rates of warming. The bias in the values of the temperature anomalies can be explained in terms of a difference in the reference period used for computing temperature anomalies. It is possible that allegations of temperature tampering by the BOM relate to the data earlier than 1979.