Thongchai Thailand

 

 

 

FIGURE 1: ATLANTIC OCEAN

 

FIGURE 2: PACIFIC OCEAN

 

FIGURE 3: INDIAN OCEAN

 

FIGURE 4: SUMMARY OF RESULTS: FULL SPAN TRENDS

 

FIGURE 5: SUMMARY OF RESULTS: DECADAL TRENDS

 

FIGURE 6: DECADAL TREND STATISTICS

 

FIGURE 7: GEOTHERMAL SOURCES IN THE ARCTIC  [JAMES KAMIS]

 

FIGURE 8: MID OCEAN RIDGES  [PSU.EDU] 

 

FIGURE 9: PLATE TECTONICS   [USGS]

 

FIGURE 10: THE INDIAN OCEAN  [VOLCANO DISCOVERY]

 

1. The theory of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) IS discussed more fully in a related post [THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2] where it is shown that there has been some unexplained divergence between the expected surface temperature due to AGW forcing and the observational data. Climate science has proposed that these anomalies may be explained in terms of ocean heat uptake because some of the warming due to AGW may become absorbed into ocean heat content (References in paragraphs 21 to 31 in the OCEAN HEAT CONTENT BIBLIOGRAPHY section below). This work is a critical evaluation of the interpretation of changes in ocean heat content in terms of the “uptake” of AGW generated heat by the oceans.
2. The data used in this work consist primarily of ocean heat content estimations by the NOAA from many measurements of ocean temperatures globally at depths down to depths of 3,000 meters [NOAA OCEAN HEAT CONTENT DATABASE] . The data are provided in two distinct data formats for the two different depths for which data are available namely surface to 700 meters (700M) and surface to 2000 meters (2000M). The 700M data are provided as annual means (YEARLY) for the 63-year period from mid 1955 to mid 2017 and the 2000M data are provided as moving 5-year averages (PENTA) for the 59-year period from mid 1957 to mid 2015. Both data sets are provided for northern and southern segments of the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian oceans.
3. The data as received are displayed graphically in Figure 1 to Figure 3 for the three different oceans. Each figure represents an ocean and consists of an upper and lower panel each with two frames for a total of four charts per ocean. The 700M data re displayed in the upper panel and the 2,000M data in the lower panel. The left frame of each panel is a display of the heat content data in units of 1E22 Joules (10^22 Joules) against time in years. The right frame of each panel displays the corresponding “trend profile” in terms of decadal trends (units of 1E22 Joules/year) in a moving window. Each chart contains four color-coded lines for different sections of the ocean as South (purple), North (red), both North and South (blue), and a neutral zero line (black).
4. As expected, the annual data for 700M shows greater volatility and uncertainty than the smoothed Pentadal data for 2000M. An additional difference seen in the case of the Pacific is that the steady and sustained upward trend in OHC at 2000M is not found in the 700M data where no trend is evident until the 1990’s. This distinction is seen more clearly in the trend profiles where we find that in the smoothed data for 2000M, the moving decadal trends are all positive whereas in the data for 700 meters we see violent and unsynchronized swings of cooling and warming periods with North cooling while the South warms and vice versa. This disconnect between North and South is not seen in the smoothed data for 2000M. The smoothed full span data for 2000M indicate steadily rising Ocean Heat Content (OHC) for both the Northern and Southern segments in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.
5. A very different pattern is seen in the Indian Ocean where the whole of the gain in OHC at either depth derives from warming in the South with no trend seen in the OHC of the North. The trend pattern seen for the annual 700M data in the Atlantic and Pacific where the upward trend in OHC begins in the 1990s is seen in the Indian Ocean data at both depths and at both annual and pentadal time scales.
6. The results of trend analysis of the data depicted in in Figure 1 to Figure 3 are summarized in Figure 4 and Figure 5. Figure 4 contains the results of full span trend analysis and here we find a great variance in total OHC gain among the oceanic regions. The greatest gain in OHC occurred in the North Atlantic (with gains of 5.5E22 Joules at 700M and 7.4E22 Joules at 2000M) followed by the North Pacific (3.5E22 Joules at 700M) and the South Atlantic at (5.4E22 Joules at 200M). The lowest OHC accumulation is seen in the North Indian Ocean at 0.63E22 Joules at 700M and 0.91E22 Joules at 2000M. The last column of Figure 4 marked “Percent” shows the distribution of each ocean’s heat gain between its Northern and Southern portions. The distribution is most even in the Pacific at close to 50-50 and most unbalanced in the Indian Ocean where more than 80% of the warming is found in the South at both 700M and 2000M depths.
7. Greater trend information than is found in full span trends of the 700M and 2000M OHC time series is found in the plot of decadal trends in a 10-year moving window shown in the trend profile curves of Figure 1 to Figure 3. A summary of decadal trends in a moving window is presented in Figure 5 where decadal OHC gains are tabulated in distinct decades. With some overlap there are seven distinct decades in the annual data for 700M and six for 2000M. The data are displayed in charts below the table. The “acceleration” in OHC gain claimed by many authors (see for example paragraph #28 in the Ocean Heat Content Bibliography below), is evident in the Atlantic (both North and South) at 700M and weaker evidence of acceleration with large variance is found in the Pacific (North and South) at 700M. No evidence of acceleration is seen in the Indian Ocean at either depth or at 2000M in any ocean.
8. Further analysis and summary of the decadal trends are presented in Figure 6. Each chart below the table displays data for both 700M (in blue on the left) and 2000M (in red on the right). Each ocean name occurs twice in each depth section for the northern and southern segments of the ocean respectively.
9. At 700M the greatest decadal OHC decline rates are seen in the North Pacific at a decline rate of 0.29E22 JPY (Joules per year) and in the South Pacific and at a rate of 0.25E22 JPY. The greatest OHC accretion rates are seen in the North Pacific at a rate of 0.32E22 JPY and also in the South Indian Ocean at a rate of 0.30E22 JPY. At 2000M the greatest decadal OHC decline rates are seen in the North Pacific at a decline rate of 0.23E22 JPY (Joules per year) and in the South Indian Ocean and at a rate of 0.20E22 JPY. The greatest OHC accretion rates are seen in the South Indian Ocean at a rate of 0.33E22 JPY and also in the North Atlantic at a rate of 0.30E22 JPY.
10. In terms of average decadal rate of gain in OHC, at700M and 2000M, the lowest trends are found in the North Indian Ocean at rates of 0.013E22JPY and 0.02E22JPY respectively and the highest rates of OHC gain are found in the North Atlantic at rates of 0.07E22JPY and 0.2E22JPY respectively. The OHC trend patterns across the oceans in terms of minimum, maximum, and average decadal trends are thus found to be grossly non-uniform and incongruent. A specific case of non-uniformity in OHC trends globally is the case of the Indian Ocean. As seen in Figure 3, decadal trends in OHC in the Indian Ocean are driven almost exclusively by the South Indian Ocean with little if any contribution by the North except for a slight warming trend since the year 2000. If this minor trend is to be interpreted in terms of the so called warming “hiatus” that began in the year 2000, more reason than its mere existence is needed to support the attribution without the risk of circular reasoning.
11. The comparisons above describe a state of incongruity in OHC trends according to location and an absence of the kind of homogeneity in the rate of gain in ocean heat content rates one would expect if they were driven by common and uniform global force. It is therefore proposed that this pattern of trends in ocean heat content is not consistent with a uniform global source of heat from the greenhouse effect of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and that other sources of heat known to exist must also be considered. These conclusions are supported by similar works carried out by James Edward Kamis (paragraphs #31-#34 in Geothermal Heat Bibliography) and Robert Stevenson (paragraph#8 in Ocean Heat Content Bibliography).
12. Figure 7 through Figure 10 are maps that identify possible sources of submarine geothermal heat  sources. It is clear in these maps and also generally accepted that the North Atlantic contains more submarine geothermal heat sources than the South and the South Indian Ocean contains more geothermal heat sources than the North. These patterns are consistent with the patterns of OHC trends seen in Figure 1, Figure 2, and Figure 3. These data may not provide conclusive evidence that geothermal heat drives OHC but they provide sufficient reason to question the proposition that changes in OHC can and should be understood only in terms of atmospheric composition and the proposition that anomalies in the theory of the heat trapping effect of atmospheric composition can be explained in terms of changes in OHC without consideration of known sources of geothermal heat in the oceans.

 

 

OCEAN HEAT CONTENT BIBLIOGRAPHY

1. 1959: Rossby, C. G. “The atmosphere and the sea in motion.” Current problems in meteorology (1959): 9-50.  n  [THE WORKS OF CARL GUSTAV ROSSBY]
2. 1980: White, Warren, et al. “The thermocline response to transient atmospheric forcing in the interior midlatitude North PAcific 1976–1978.” Journal of Physical Oceanography 10.3 (1980): 372-384. The Ekman pumping mechanism for altering the depth of the main thermocline in response to wind stress curl is tested in the central midlatitude North Pacific. According to this mechanism, the depth of the main thermocline should decrease under cyclonic wind stress curl and increase under anticyclonic wind stress curl. For the two years 1976–78, temperature measurements from an XBT measurement program between North America and Japan have allowed the monthly thermal structure to be measured over an area 30–50°N, 130–170°W, accompanied with synoptic estimates of wind stress curl. Working with anomalous estimates that deviate from the normal seasonal cycle, the month-to-month secular change in the depth of the main thermocline during the nine months of each year from February to October is found to have responded to the anomalous wind stress curl according to what was expected from the Ekman pumping mechanism. The expected and observed secular changes in the thermocline depth for these times of the year were correlated with each other at the 1% significance level in the latitudinal band from 35–45°N (except in the near field of the Subarctic Front) along 160°W. However, during the other part of each year (November, December and January), when synoptic storm forcing was at its peak, the depth of the main thermocline did not respond to the wind stress curl in the manner expected. Rather, the depth of the main thermocline tended to respond in the opposite fashion. This suggests that other mechanisms associated with autumn/winter forcing may have been important.
3. 1994: Trenberth, Kevin E., and James W. Hurrell. “Decadal atmosphere-ocean variations in the Pacific.” Climate Dynamics 9.6 (1994): 303-319. Considerable evidence has emerged of a substantial decade-long change in the north Pacific atmosphere and ocean lasting from about 1976 to 1988. Observed significant changes in the atmospheric circulation throughout the troposphere revealed a deeper and eastward shifted Aleutian low pressure system in the winter half year which advected warmer and moister air along the west coast of North America and into Alaska and colder air over the north Pacific. Consequently, there were increases in temperatures and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) along the west coast of North America and Alaska but decreases in SSTs over the central north Pacific, as well as changes in coastal rainfall and streamflow, and decreases in sea ice in the Bering Sea. Associated changes occurred in the surface wind stress, and, by inference, in the Sverdrup transport in the north Pacific Ocean. Changes in the monthly mean flow were accompanied by a southward shift in the storm tracks and associated synoptic eddy activity and in the surface ocean sensible and latent heat fluxes. In addition to the changes in the physical environment, the deeper Aleutian low increased the nutrient supply as seen through increases in total chlorophyll in the water column, phytoplankton and zooplankton. These changes, along with the altered ocean currents and temperatures, changed the migration patterns and increased the stock of many fish species. A north Pacific (NP) index is defined to measure the decadal variations, and the temporal variability of the index is explored on daily, annual, interannual and decadal time scales. The dominant atmosphere-ocean relation in the north Pacific is one where atmospheric changes lead SSTs by one to two months. However, strong ties are revealed with events in the tropical Pacific, with changes in tropical Pacific SSTs leading SSTs in the north Pacific by three months. Changes in the storm tracks in the north Pacific help to reinforce and maintain the anomalous circulation in the upper troposphere. A hypothesis is put forward outlining the tropical and extratropical realtionships which stresses the role of tropical forcing but with important feed-backs in the extratropics that serve to emphasize the decadal relative to interannual time scales. The Pacific decadal timescale variations are linked to recent changes in the frequency and intensity of El Niño versus La Nina events but whether climate change associated with “global warming” is a factor is an open question.
4. 1996: Deser, Clara, Michael A. Alexander, and Michael S. Timlin. “Upper-ocean thermal variations in the North Pacific during 1970–1991.” Journal of Climate 9.8 (1996): 1840-1855. A newly available, extensive compilation of upper-ocean temperature profiles was used to study the vertical structure of thermal anomalies between the surface and 400-m depth in the North Pacific during 1970–1991. A prominent decade-long perturbation in climate occurred during this time period: surface waters cooled by ∼1°C in the central and western North Pacific and warmed by about the same amount along the west coast of North America from late 1976 to 1988. Comparison with data from COADS suggests that the relatively sparse sampling of the subsurface data is adequate for describing the climate anomaly.The vertical structure of seasonal thermal anomalies in the central North Pacific shows a series of cold pulses beginning in the fall of 1976 and continuing until late 1988 that appear to originate at the surface and descend with time into the main thermocline to at least 400-m depth. Individual cold events descend rapidly (∼100 m yr−1), superimposed upon a slower cooling (∼15 m yr−1). The interdecadal climate change, while evident at the surface, is most prominent below ∼150 m where interannual variations are small. Unlike the central North Pacific, the temperature changes along the west coast of North America appear to be confined to approximately the upper 200–250 m. The structure of the interdecadal thermal variations in the eastern and central North Pacific appears to be consistent with the dynamics of the ventilated thermocline. In the western North Pacific, strong cooling is observed along the axis of the Kuroshio Current Extension below ∼200 m depth during the 1980s. Changes in mixed layer depth accompany the SST variations, but their spatial distribution is not identical to the pattern of SST change. In particular, the decade-long cool period in the central North Pacific was accompanied by a ∼20 m deepening of the mixed layer in winter, but no significant changes in mixed layer depth were found along the west coast of North America. It is suggested that other factors such as stratification beneath the mixed layer and synoptic wind forcing may play a role in determining the distribution of mixed layer depth anomalies.
5. 1997: Deser, C., M. A. Alexander, and M. S. Timlin. “Upper-Ocean thermal variations in the North Pacific during 1970-1991.” Oceanographic Literature Review 4.44 (1997): 308-309. The vertical structure of seasonal thermal anomalies in the central North Pacific shows a series of cold pulses beginning in the fall of 1976 and continuing until late 1988 that appear to originate at the surface and descend with time into the main thermocline to at least 400-m depth. Individual cold events descend rapidly, superimposed upon a slower cooling. The interdecadal climate change, while evident at the surface, is most prominent below ≃ 150 m. The temperature changes along the west coast of North America appear to be confined to approximately the upper 200-250 m. In the western North Pacific, strong cooling is observed along the axis of the Kuroshio Current Extension below ∼ 200 m depth during the 1980s. Changes in mixed layer depth accompany the SST variations.
6. 1997: White, Warren B., et al. “Response of global upper ocean temperature to changing solar irradiance.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 102.C2 (1997): 3255-3266.  By focusing on time sequences of basin‐average and global‐average upper ocean temperature (i.e., from 40°S to 60°N) we find temperatures responding to changing solar irradiance in three separate frequency bands with periods of >100 years, 18–25 years, and 9–13 years. Moreover, we find them in two different data sets, that is, surface marine weather observations from 1990 to 1991 and bathythermograph (BT) upper ocean temperature profiles from 1955 to 1994. Band‐passing basin‐average temperature records find each frequency component in phase across the Indian, Pacific, and Atlantic Oceans, yielding global‐average records with maximum amplitudes of 0.04°±0.01°K and 0.07°±0.01°K on decadal and interdecadal scales, respectively. These achieve maximum correlation with solar irradiance records (i.e., with maximum amplitude 0.5 W m⁻² at the top of the atmosphere) at phase lags ranging from 30° to 50°. From the BT data set, solar signals in global‐average temperature penetrate to 80–160 m, confined to the upper layer above the main pycnocline. Operating a global‐average heat budget for the upper ocean yields sea surface temperature responses of 0.01°–0.03°K and 0.02°–0.05°K on decadal and interdecadal scales, respectively, from the 0.1 W m⁻² penetration of solar irradiance to the sea surface. Since this is of the same order as that observed (i.e., 0.04°–0.07°K), we can infer that anomalous heat from changing solar irradiance is stored in the upper layer of the ocean.
7. 1998: White, Warren B., and Daniel R. Cayan. “Quasi‐periodicity and global symmetries in interdecadal upper ocean temperature variability.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans103.C10 (1998): 21335-21354. Recent studies find interannual (i.e., 3 to 7 year), decadal (i.e., 9 to 13 year), and interdecadal (i.e., 18 to 23 year) periodicities, and a trend dominating global sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP) variability over the past hundred years, with the interdecadal signal dominating sub‐El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) frequencies. We isolate interdecadal frequencies in SST and SLP records by band passing with a window admitting 15 to 30 year periods. From 1900 to 1989, the rms of interdecadal‐filtered SST and SLP anomalies is largest in the extratropics and eastern boundaries. First‐mode empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) explain about half the interdecadal variance in both variables, with the tropical warm phase peaking near 1900, 1920, 1940, 1960, and 1980. From 1955 to 1994, EOF spatial patterns of interdecadal SST, SLP, and 400m temperature (T400) anomalies reveals global reflection symmetries about the equator and global translation symmetries between ocean basins, with tropical and eastern ocean SSTs warmer (cooler) than normal, covarying with stronger (weaker) extratropical westerly winds, cooler (warmer) SSTs in western‐central subarctic and subantarctic frontal zones (SAFZs), stronger (weaker) subtropic and subarctic gyre circulations in North Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans, and warmer (cooler) basin and global average SSTs of 0.1°C or so. Evolution of interdecadal variability from the tropical warm phase to the tropical cool phase is propagative, also characterized by reflection and translation symmetries. During the tropical warm phase, cool SST anomalies along western‐central SAFZs are advected slowly eastward to the eastern boundaries and subsequently advected poleward and equatorward by the mean gyre circulation, the latter conducting extratropical SST anomalies into the tropics. A delayed action oscillation model is constructed that yields the quasiperiodicity of interdecadal variability in a manner consistent with these global symmetries in both pattern and evolution.
8. 2000: Stevenson, Robert E. “Yes, the ocean has warmed; no, it’s notglobal warming’.” 21ST CENTURY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 13.2 (2000): 60-65. Contrary to recent press reports that the oceans hold the still-undetected global atmospheric warming predicted by climate models, ocean warming occurs in 100-year cycles, independent of both radiative and human influences. [FULL TEXT] 
9. 2000: Levitus, Sydney, et al. “Warming of the world ocean.” Science287.5461 (2000): 2225-2229. We quantify the interannual-to-decadal variability of the heat content (mean temperature) of the world ocean from the surface through 3000-meter depth for the period 1948 to 1998. The heat content of the world ocean increased by ∼2 × 10²³ joules between the mid-1950s and mid-1990s, representing a volume mean warming of 0.06°C. This corresponds to a warming rate of 0.3 watt per meter squared (per unit area of Earth’s surface). Substantial changes in heat content occurred in the 300- to 1000-meter layers of each ocean and in depths greater than 1000 meters of the North Atlantic. The global volume mean temperature increase for the 0- to 300-meter layer was 0.31°C, corresponding to an increase in heat content for this layer of ∼10²³ joules between the mid-1950s and mid-1990s. The Atlantic and Pacific Oceans have undergone a net warming since the 1950s and the Indian Ocean has warmed since the mid-1960s, although the warming is not monotonic.
10. 2001: Levitus, Sydney, et al. “Anthropogenic warming of Earth’s climate system.” Science 292.5515 (2001): 267-270. We compared the temporal variability of the heat content of the world ocean, of the global atmosphere, and of components of Earth’s cryosphere during the latter half of the 20th century. Each component has increased its heat content (the atmosphere and the ocean) or exhibited melting (the cryosphere). The estimated increase of observed global ocean heat content (over the depth range from 0 to 3000 meters) between the 1950s and 1990s is at least one order of magnitude larger than the increase in heat content of any other component. Simulation results using an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model that includes estimates of the radiative effects of observed temporal variations in greenhouse gases, sulfate aerosols, solar irradiance, and volcanic aerosols over the past century agree with our observation-based estimate of the increase in ocean heat content. The results we present suggest that the observed increase in ocean heat content may largely be due to the increase of anthropogenic gases in Earth’s atmosphere.
11. 2003: McPhaden, Michael J. “Tropical Pacific Ocean heat content variations and ENSO persistence barriers.” Geophysical research letters9 (2003).Data from the tropical Pacific Ocean for the period 1980–2002 are used to examine the persistence of sea surface temperature (SST) and upper ocean heat content variations in relation to El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The present study demonstrates that, unlike for SST, there is no spring persistence barrier when considering upper ocean heat content. Conversely, there is a persistence barrier for heat content in boreal winter related to a seasonal reduction in variance. These results are consistent with ENSO forecast model studies indicating that accurate initialization of upper ocean heat content often reduces the prominence of the spring prediction barrier for SST. They also suggest that initialization of upper ocean heat content variations may lead to seasonally varying enhancements of forecast skill, with the most pronounced enhancements for forecasts starting early and late in the development of ENSO events.2004: 
12. 2004: Gregory, J. M., et al. “Simulated and observed decadal variability in ocean heat content.” Geophysical Research Letters15 (2004). Previous analyses by Levitus et al.[2000] (“Levitus”) of ocean temperature data have shown that ocean heat content has increased over the last fifty years with substantial temporal variability superimposed. The HadCM3 coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulates the Levitus trend if both natural and anthropogenic forcings are included. In the relatively well‐observed northern hemisphere upper ocean, HadCM3 has similar temporal variability to Levitus but, like other AOGCMs, it has generally less variability than Levitus for the world ocean. We analyse the causes of this discrepancy, which could result from deficiencies in either the model or the observational dataset. A substantial contribution to the Levitus variability comes from a strong maximum around 500 m depth, absent in HadCM3. We demonstrate a possibly large sensitivity to the method of filling in the observational dataset outside the well‐observed region, and advocate caution in using it to assess AOGCM heat content changes.
13. 2004: Willis, Josh K., Dean Roemmich, and Bruce Cornuelle. “Interannual variability in upper ocean heat content, temperature, and thermosteric expansion on global scales.” Journal of Geophysical Research: OceansC12 (2004). Satellite altimetric height was combined with approximately 1,000,000 in situ temperature profiles to produce global estimates of upper ocean heat content, temperature, and thermosteric sea level variability on interannual timescales. Maps of these quantities from mid‐1993 through mid‐2003 were calculated using the technique developed byWillis et al. [2003]. The time series of globally averaged heat content contains a small amount of interannual variability and implies an oceanic warming rate of 0.86 ± 0.12 watts per square meter of ocean (0.29 ± 0.04 pW) from 1993 to 2003 for the upper 750 m of the water column. As a result of the warming, thermosteric sea level rose at a rate of 1.6 ± 0.3 mm/yr over the same time period. Maps of yearly heat content anomaly show patterns of warming commensurate with ENSO variability in the tropics, but also show that a large part of the trend in global, oceanic heat content is caused by regional warming at midlatitudes in the Southern Hemisphere. In addition to quantifying interannual variability on a global scale, this work illustrates the importance of maintaining continuously updated monitoring systems that provide global coverage of the world’s oceans. Ongoing projects, such as the Jason/TOPEX series of satellite altimeters and the Argo float program, provide a critical foundation for characterizing variability on regional, basin, and global scales and quantifying the oceans’ role as part of the climate system.
14. 2004: Antonov, John I., Sydney Levitus, and Timothy P. Boyer. “Climatological annual cycle of ocean heat content.” Geophysical Research Letters 31.4 (2004). Ocean heat content is a major component of earth’s energy budget. This paper presents estimates of the climatological annual cycle of upper (0–250 m layer) ocean heat content based on World Ocean Atlas 2001. The land‐ocean ratio is responsible for the geographical distribution of the annual cycle of ocean heat content. Globally, the amplitude of annual harmonic of upper ocean heat content is 3.7 × 10²² J for the World Ocean, 10.2 × 10²²J for the Southern Hemisphere, and 6.5 × 10²²J for the Northern Hemisphere.  [FULL TEXT]
15. 2005: Levitus, Sydney, J. Antonov, and T. Boyer. “Warming of the world ocean, 1955–2003.” Geophysical Research Letters 32.2 (2005). We present new estimates of the variability of ocean heat content based on: a) additional data that extends the record to more recent years; b) additional historical data for earlier years. During 1955–1998 world ocean heat content (0–3000 m) increased 14.5 × 1022 J corresponding to a mean temperature increase of 0.037°C at a rate of 0.20 Wm−2 (per unit area of Earth’s total surface area). Based on the physical properties and mass of the world ocean as compared to other components of Earth’s climate system, Rossby [1959] suggested that ocean heat content may be the dominant component of the variability of Earth’s heat balance. Recent work [Levitus et al., 2000, 2001] has confirmed Rossby’s suggestion. Warming of the world ocean due to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases was first identified in a report by Revelle et al. [1965]. The delay of atmospheric warming by increasing greenhouse gases due to initial heating of the world ocean was suggested by the National Research Council [NRC, 1979]. Here we present new yearly estimates for the 1955–2003 period for the upper 300 m and 700 m layers and pentadal (5‐year) estimates for the 1955–1959 through 1994–1998 period for the upper 3000 m of the world ocean.[3] The heat content estimates we present are based on an additional 1.7 million (S. Levitus et al., Building ocean profile‐plankton databases for climate and ecosystem research, submitted to Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2004) temperature profiles that have become available as part of the World Ocean Database 2001 [Conkright et al., 2002]. Also, we have processed approximately 310,000 additional temperature profiles since the release of WOD01 and include these in our analyses. Heat content computations are similar to those described by Levitus and Antonov [1997]. Here we use 1957–1990 as the reference period for our estimates.  [FULL TEXT]
16. 2005: Church, John A., Neil J. White, and Julie M. Arblaster. “Significant decadal-scale impact of volcanic eruptions on sea level and ocean heat content.” Nature7064 (2005): 74.  Ocean thermal expansion contributes significantly to sea-level variability and rise¹. However, observed decadal variability in ocean heat content^2,3and sea level⁴ has not been reproduced well in climate models⁵. Aerosols injected into the stratosphere during volcanic eruptions scatter incoming solar radiation, and cause a rapid cooling of the atmosphere^6,7 and a reduction in rainfall^6,8,9, as well as other changes in the climate system⁷. Here we use observations of ocean heat content^2,3 and a set of climate simulations to show that large volcanic eruptions result in rapid reductions in ocean heat content and global mean sea level. For the Mt Pinatubo eruption, we estimate a reduction in ocean heat content of about 3 × 10²² J and a global sea-level fall of about 5 mm. Over the three years following such an eruption, we estimate a decrease in evaporation of up to 0.1 mm d^-1, comparable to observed changes in mean land precipitation^6,8,9. The recovery of sea level following the Mt Pinatubo eruption in 1991 explains about half of the difference between the long-term rate of sea-level rise⁴ of 1.8 mm yr^-1 (for 1950–2000), and the higher rate estimated for the more recent period where satellite altimeter data are available (1993–2000)⁴
17. 2009: Levitus, Sydney, et al. “Global ocean heat content 1955–2008 in light of recently revealed instrumentation problems.” Geophysical Research Letters7 (2009).We provide estimates of the warming of the world ocean for 1955–2008 based on historical data not previously available, additional modern data, correcting for instrumental biases of bathythermograph data, and correcting or excluding some Argo float data. The strong interdecadal variability of global ocean heat content reported previously by us is reduced in magnitude but the linear trend in ocean heat content remain similar to our earlier estimate.
18. 2009: Ishii, Masayoshi, and Masahide Kimoto. “Reevaluation of historical ocean heat content variations with time-varying XBT and MBT depth bias corrections.” Journal of Oceanography3 (2009): 287-299. As reported in former studies, temperature observations obtained by expendable bathythermographs (XBTs) and mechanical bathythermographs (MBTs) appear to have positive biases as much as they affect major climate signals. These biases have not been fully taken into account in previous ocean temperature analyses, which have been widely used to detect global warming signals in the oceans. This report proposes a methodology for directly eliminating the biases from the XBT and MBT observations. In the case of XBT observation, assuming that the positive temperature biases mainly originate from greater depths given by conventional XBT fall-rate equations than the truth, a depth bias equation is constructed by fitting depth differences between XBT data and more accurate oceanographic observations to a linear equation of elapsed time. Such depth bias equations are introduced separately for each year and for each probe type. Uncertainty in the gradient of the linear equation is evaluated using a non-parametric test. The typical depth bias is +10 m at 700 m depth on average, which is probably caused by various indeterminable sources of error in the XBT observations as well as a lack of representativeness in the fall-rate equations adopted so far. Depth biases in MBT are fitted to quadratic equations of depth in a similar manner to the XBT method. Correcting the historical XBT and MBT depth biases by these equations allows a historical ocean temperature analysis to be conducted. In comparison with the previous temperature analysis, large differences are found in the present analysis as follows: the duration of large ocean heat content in the 1970s shortens dramatically, and recent ocean cooling becomes insignificant. The result is also in better agreement with tide gauge observations.
19. 2011: Johnson, Gregory C., et al. “Ocean heat content.”  Am. Meteorol. Soc92 (2011): S81-S84. Three different upper ocean estimates (0–700 m) of globally integrated in situ OHCA (Fig. OHCA3) reveal a large increase in global integrals of that quantity since 1993. While levels appear to be increasing more slowly since around 2003 or 2004 than over the previous decade, the mass and thermal expansion terms of the global sea level budget agree with observed sea level rise rates over the latter time period (Section ****). The highest values for each global OHCA estimate are for 2011, although uncertainties only permit statistically significant trends to be estimated over about ten years or longer (Lyman, 2011). Interannual details of the time series differ for a variety of reasons including differences in climatology, treatment of the seasonal cycle, mapping methods, instrument bias corrections, quality control, and other factors (Lyman et al. 2010). Some of these factors are not taken into account in some of the displayed uncertainties, so while the error bars shown do not always overlap among the three estimates, they are not necessarily statistically different from each other. However, all three curves agree on a significant decadal warming of the upper ocean since 1993, accounting for a large portion of the global energy imbalance over this time period (Church et al. 2011).
20. 2012: Levitus, Sydney, et al. “World ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level change (0–2000 m), 1955–2010.” Geophysical Research Letters10 (2012). We provide updated estimates of the change of ocean heat content and the thermosteric component of sea level change of the 0–700 and 0–2000 m layers of the World Ocean for 1955–2010. Our estimates are based on historical data not previously available, additional modern data, and bathythermograph data corrected for instrumental biases. We have also used Argo data corrected by the Argo DAC if available and used uncorrected Argo data if no corrections were available at the time we downloaded the Argo data. The heat content of the World Ocean for the 0–2000 m layer increased by 24.0 ± 1.9 × 10²²J (±2S.E.) corresponding to a rate of 0.39 W m⁻² (per unit area of the World Ocean) and a volume mean warming of 0.09°C. This warming corresponds to a rate of 0.27 W m⁻² per unit area of earth’s surface. The heat content of the World Ocean for the 0–700 m layer increased by 16.7 ± 1.6 × 10²² J corresponding to a rate of 0.27 W m⁻²(per unit area of the World Ocean) and a volume mean warming of 0.18°C. The World Ocean accounts for approximately 93% of the warming of the earth system that has occurred since 1955. The 700–2000 m ocean layer accounted for approximately one‐third of the warming of the 0–2000 m layer of the World Ocean. The thermosteric component of sea level trend was 0.54 ± .05 mm yr⁻¹ for the 0–2000 m layer and 0.41 ± .04 mm yr⁻¹ for the 0–700 m layer of the World Ocean for 1955–2010.
21. 2013: Trenberth, Kevin E., and John T. Fasullo. “An apparent hiatus in global warming?.” Earth’s Future 1.1 (2013): 19-32. Global warming first became evident beyond the bounds of natural variability in the 1970s, but increases in global mean surface temperatures have stalled in the 2000s. Increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases, notably carbon dioxide, create an energy imbalance at the top‐of‐atmosphere (TOA) even as the planet warms to adjust to this imbalance, which is estimated to be 0.5–1 W m⁻² over the 2000s. Annual global fluctuations in TOA energy of up to 0.2 W m⁻² occur from natural variations in clouds, aerosols, and changes in the Sun. At times of major volcanic eruptions the effects can be much larger. Yet global mean surface temperatures fluctuate much more than these can account for. An energy imbalance is manifested not just as surface atmospheric or ground warming but also as melting sea and land ice, and heating of the oceans. More than 90% of the heat goes into the oceans and, with melting land ice, causes sea level to rise. For the past decade, more than 30% of the heat has apparently penetrated below 700 m depth that is traceable to changes in surface winds mainly over the Pacific in association with a switch to a negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in 1999. Surface warming was much more in evidence during the 1976–1998 positive phase of the PDO, suggesting that natural decadal variability modulates the rate of change of global surface temperatures while sea‐level rise is more relentless. Global warming has not stopped; it is merely manifested in different ways. [FULL TEXT]
22. 2013: Kosaka, Yu, and Shang-Ping Xie. “Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling.” Nature501.7467 (2013): 403. Despite the continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in the twenty-first century^1,2, challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming. Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus in global warming^3,4,5,6, but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity. Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations. We present a novel method of uncovering mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing, in addition to radiative forcing, the observed history of sea surface temperature over the central to eastern tropical Pacific in a climate model. Although the surface temperature prescription is limited to only 8.2% of the global surface, our model reproduces the annual-mean global temperature remarkably well with correlation coefficient r = 0.97 for 1970–2012 (which includes the current hiatus and a period of accelerated global warming). Moreover, our simulation captures major seasonal and regional characteristics of the hiatus, including the intensified Walker circulation, the winter cooling in northwestern North America and the prolonged drought in the southern USA. Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La-Niña-like decadal cooling. Although similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, the multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase.
23. 2013: Balmaseda, Magdalena A., Kevin E. Trenberth, and Erland Källén. “Distinctive climate signals in reanalysis of global ocean heat content.” Geophysical Research Letters9 (2013): 1754-1759. The elusive nature of the post‐2004 upper ocean warming has exposed uncertainties in the ocean’s role in the Earth’s energy budget and transient climate sensitivity. Here we present the time evolution of the global ocean heat content for 1958 through 2009 from a new observation‐based reanalysis of the ocean. Volcanic eruptions and El Niño events are identified as sharp cooling events punctuating a long‐term ocean warming trend, while heating continues during the recent upper‐ocean‐warming hiatus, but the heat is absorbed in the deeper ocean. In the last decade, about 30% of the warming has occurred below 700 m, contributing significantly to an acceleration of the warming trend. The warming below 700 m remains even when the Argo observing system is withdrawn although the trends are reduced. Sensitivity experiments illustrate that surface wind variability is largely responsible for the changing ocean heat vertical distribution.
24. 2014: Lin, I‐I., Iam‐Fei Pun, and Chun‐Chi Lien. ““Category‐6” supertyphoon Haiyan in global warming hiatus: Contribution from subsurface ocean warming.” Geophysical Research Letters 41.23 (2014): 8547-8553. With the extra‐ordinary intensity of 170 kts, supertyphoon Haiyan devastated the Philippines in November 2013. This intensity is among the highest ever observed for tropical cyclones (TCs) globally, 35 kts well above the threshold (135kts) of the existing highest category of 5. Though there is speculation to associate global warming with such intensity, existing research indicate that we have been in a warming hiatus period, with the hiatus attributed to the La Niña‐like multi‐decadal phenomenon. It is thus intriguing to understand why Haiyan can occur during hiatus. It is suggested that as the western Pacific manifestation of the La Niña‐like phenomenon is to pile up warm subsurface water to the west, the western North Pacific experienced evident subsurface warming and created a very favorable ocean pre‐condition for Haiyan. Together with its fast traveling speed, the air‐sea flux supply was 158% as compared to normal for intensification.
25. 2014: Watanabe, Masahiro, et al. “Contribution of natural decadal variability to global warming acceleration and hiatus.” Nature Climate Change 4.10 (2014): 893. Reasons for the apparent pause in the rise of global-mean surface air temperature (SAT) after the turn of the century has been a mystery, undermining confidence in climate projections^1,2,3. Recent climate model simulations indicate this warming hiatus originated from eastern equatorial Pacific cooling⁴ associated with strengthening of trade winds⁵. Using a climate model that overrides tropical wind stress anomalies with observations for 1958–2012, we show that decadal-mean anomalies of global SAT referenced to the period 1961–1990 are changed by 0.11, 0.13 and −0.11 °C in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, respectively, without variation in human-induced radiative forcing. They account for about 47%, 38% and 27% of the respective temperature change. The dominant wind stress variability consistent with this warming/cooling represents the deceleration/acceleration of the Pacific trade winds, which can be robustly reproduced by atmospheric model simulations forced by observed sea surface temperature excluding anthropogenic warming components. Results indicate that inherent decadal climate variability contributes considerably to the observed global-mean SAT time series, but that its influence on decadal-mean SAT has gradually decreased relative to the rising anthropogenic warming signal.
26. 2014: Chen, Xianyao, and Ka-Kit Tung. “Varying planetary heat sink led to global-warming slowdown and acceleration.” Science345.6199 (2014): 897-903. Global warming seems to have paused over the past 15 years while the deep ocean takes the heat instead. The thermal capacity of the oceans far exceeds that of the atmosphere, so the oceans can store up to 90% of the heat buildup caused by increased concentrations of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. Chen and Tung used observational data to trace the pathways of recent ocean heating. They conclude that the deep Atlantic and Southern Oceans, but not the Pacific, have absorbed the excess heat that would otherwise have fueled continued warming. [FULL TEXT]
27. 2014: Meehl, Gerald A., Haiyan Teng, and Julie M. Arblaster. “Climate model simulations of the observed early-2000s hiatus of global warming.” Nature Climate Change 4.10 (2014): 898. The slowdown in the rate of global warming in the early 2000s is not evident in the multi-model ensemble average of traditional climate change projection simulations¹. However, a number of individual ensemble members from that set of models successfully simulate the early-2000s hiatus when naturally-occurring climate variability involving the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) coincided, by chance, with the observed negative phase of the IPO that contributed to the early-2000s hiatus. If the recent methodology of initialized decadal climate prediction could have been applied in the mid-1990s using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 multi-models, both the negative phase of the IPO in the early 2000s as well as the hiatus could have been simulated, with the multi-model average performing better than most of the individual models. The loss of predictive skill for six initial years before the mid-1990s points to the need for consistent hindcast skill to establish reliability of an operational decadal climate prediction system.
28. 2014: Nuccitelli, Dana, et al. “Comment on” Cosmic-ray-driven reaction and greenhouse effect of halogenated molecules: Culprits for atmospheric ozone depletion and global climate change”.” International Journal of Modern Physics B 28.13 (2014): 1482003. Lu (2013) (L13) argued that solar effects and anthropogenic halogenated gases can explain most of the observed warming of global mean surface air temperatures since 1850, with virtually no contribution from atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations. Here we show that this conclusion is based on assumptions about the saturation of the CO₂-induced greenhouse effect that have been experimentally falsified. L13 also confuses equilibrium and transient response, and relies on data sources that have been superseeded due to known inaccuracies. Furthermore, the statistical approach of sequential linear regression artificially shifts variance onto the first predictor. L13’s artificial choice of regression order and neglect of other relevant data is the fundamental cause of the incorrect main conclusion. Consideration of more modern data and a more parsimonious multiple regression model leads to contradiction with L13’s statistical results. Finally, the correlation arguments in L13 are falsified by considering either the more appropriate metric of global heat accumulation, or data on longer timescales. [FULL TEXT]
29. 2015: Stenchikov, Georgiy. “The role of volcanic activity in climate and global change.” Climate Change (Second Edition). 2015. 419-447. Explosive volcanic eruptions are magnificent events that in many ways affect the Earth’s natural processes and climate. They cause sporadic perturbations of the planet’s energy balance, activating complex climate feedbacks and providing unique opportunities to better quantify those processes. We know that explosive eruptions cause cooling in the atmosphere for a few years, but we have just recently realized that volcanic signals can be seen in the subsurface ocean for decades. The volcanic forcing of the previous two centuries offsets the ocean heat uptake and diminishes global warming by about 30%. The explosive volcanism of the twenty-first century is unlikely to either cause any significant climate signal or to delay the pace of global warming. The recent interest in dynamic, microphysical, chemical, and climate impacts of volcanic eruptions is also excited by the fact that these impacts provide a natural analogue for climate geoengineering schemes involving deliberate development of an artificial aerosol layer in the lower stratosphere to counteract global warming. In this chapter we aim to discuss these recently discovered volcanic effects and specifically pay attention to how we can learn about the hidden Earth-system mechanisms activated by explosive volcanic eruptions. To demonstrate these effects we use our own model results when possible along with available observations, as well as review closely related recent publications.
30. 2015: Karl, Thomas R., et al. “Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus.” Science (2015): aaa5632. Much study has been devoted to the possible causes of an apparent decrease in the upward trend of global surface temperatures since 1998, a phenomenon that has been dubbed the global warming “hiatus.” Here we present an updated global surface temperature analysis that reveals that global trends are higher than reported by the IPCC, especially in recent decades, and that the central estimate for the rate of warming during the first 15 years of the 21st century is at least as great as the last half of the 20th century. These results do not support the notion of a “slowdown” in the increase of global surface temperature. [FULL TEXT]
31. 2015: Goodwin, Philip, Richard G. Williams, and Andy Ridgwell. “Sensitivity of climate to cumulative carbon emissions due to compensation of ocean heat and carbon uptake.” Nature Geoscience 8.1 (2015): 29. Climate model experiments reveal that transient global warming is nearly proportional to cumulative carbon emissions on multi-decadal to centennial timescales^1,2,3,4,5. However, it is not quantitatively understood how this near-linear dependence between warming and cumulative carbon emissions arises in transient climate simulations^6,7. Here, we present a theoretically derived equation of the dependence of global warming on cumulative carbon emissions over time. For an atmosphere–ocean system, our analysis identifies a surface warming response to cumulative carbon emissions of 1.5 ± 0.7 K for every 1,000 Pg of carbon emitted. This surface warming response is reduced by typically 10–20% by the end of the century and beyond. The climate response remains nearly constant on multi-decadal to centennial timescales as a result of partially opposing effects of oceanic uptake of heat and carbon⁸. The resulting warming then becomes proportional to cumulative carbon emissions after many centuries, as noted earlier⁹. When we incorporate estimates of terrestrial carbon uptake¹⁰, the surface warming response is reduced to 1.1 ± 0.5 K for every 1,000 Pg of carbon emitted, but this modification is unlikely to significantly affect how the climate response changes over time. We suggest that our theoretical framework may be used to diagnose the global warming response in climate models and mechanistically understand the differences between their projections.
32. 2017: Medhaug, Iselin, et al. “Reconciling controversies about the ‘global warming hiatus’.” Nature 545.7652 (2017): 41. Between about 1998 and 2012, a time that coincided with political negotiations for preventing climate change, the surface of Earth seemed hardly to warm. This phenomenon, often termed the ‘global warming hiatus’, caused doubt in the public mind about how well anthropogenic climate change and natural variability are understood. Here we show that apparently contradictory conclusions stem from different definitions of ‘hiatus’ and from different datasets. A combination of changes in forcing, uptake of heat by the oceans, natural variability and incomplete observational coverage reconciles models and data. Combined with stronger recent warming trends in newer datasets, we are now more confident than ever that human influence is dominant in long-term warming.
33. 2018: Lewis, Nicholas, and Judith Curry. “The impact of recent forcing and ocean heat uptake data on estimates of climate sensitivity.” Journal of Climate 2018 (2018). Energy budget estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR) are derived based on the best estimates and uncertainty ranges for forcing provided in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Recent revisions to greenhouse gas forcing and post-1990 ozone and aerosol forcing estimates are incorporated and the forcing data extended from 2011 to 2016. Reflecting recent evidence against strong aerosol forcing, its AR5 uncertainty lower bound is increased slightly. Using an 1869–82 base period and a 2007–16 final period, which are well matched for volcanic activity and influence from internal variability, medians are derived for ECS of 1.50 K (5%–95% range: 1.05–2.45 K) and for TCR of 1.20 K (5%–95% range: 0.9–1.7 K). These estimates both have much lower upper bounds than those from a predecessor study using AR5 data ending in 2011. Using infilled, globally complete temperature data give slightly higher estimates: a median of 1.66 K for ECS (5%–95% range: 1.15–2.7 K) and 1.33 K for TCR (5%–95% range: 1.0–1.9 K). These ECS estimates reflect climate feedbacks over the historical period, assumed to be time invariant. Allowing for possible time-varying climate feedbacks increases the median ECS estimate to 1.76 K (5%–95% range: 1.2–3.1 K), using infilled temperature data. Possible biases from non–unit forcing efficacy, temperature estimation issues, and variability in sea surface temperature change patterns are examined and found to be minor when using globally complete temperature data. These results imply that high ECS and TCR values derived from a majority of CMIP5 climate models are inconsistent with observed warming during the historical period.

 

 

 

 

 

GEOTHERMAL HEAT BIBLIOGRAPHY

1. 1968: Weyl, Peter K. “The role of the oceans in climatic change: A theory of the ice ages.” Causes of climatic change. American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA, 1968. 37-62. Changes in the surface salinity distribution in the World Ocean, by changing the extent of sea ice in the North Atlantic and Antarctic, can lead to climatic change. By reducing the water vapor flux across Central America, the salinity of the North Atlantic is reduced. If this change persists over a sufficient length of time, a glacial climate could be initiated. An examination of the “Little Ice Age” tends to confirm this hypothesis. A return to an interglacial climate may be the result of overextension of glaciers followed by stagnation of the bottom water. Stagnation is terminated by geothermal heating at the ocean floor, followed by vertical mixing of the warmed, saltier water into the subarctic gyre of the North Atlantic. This, in turn, results in a reduction of sea ice and in climatic warming.
2. 1978: Bickle, M. J. “Heat loss from the Earth: a constraint on Archaean tectonics from the relation between geothermal gradients and the rate of plate production.” Earth and Planetary Science Letters 40.3 (1978): 301-315. The models suggested for the oceanic lithosphere which best predict oceanic heat flow and depth profiles are the constant thickness model and a model in which the lithosphere thickens away from the ridge with a heat source at its base. The latter is considered to be more physically realistic. Such a model, constrained by the observed oceanic heat flow and depth profiles and a temperature at the ridge crest of between 1100°C and 1300°C, requires a heat source at the base of the lithosphere of between 0.5 and 0.9 h.f.u., thermal conductivities for the mantle between 0.005 and 0.0095 cal cm⁻¹ °C⁻¹ s⁻¹ and a coefficient of thermal expansion at 840°C between 4.1 × 10⁻⁵ and 5.1 × 10⁻⁵°C⁻¹. Plate creation and subduction are calculated to dissipate about 45% of the total earth heat loss for this model. The efficiency of this mechanism of heat loss is shown to be strongly dependent on the magnitude of the basal heat source. A relation is derived for total earth heat loss as a function of the rate of plate creation and the amount of heat transported to the base of plates. The estimated heat transport to the base of the oceanic lithosphere is similar to estimates of mantle heat flow into the base of the continental lithosphere. If this relation existed in the past and if metamorphic conditions in late Archaean high-grade terrains can be used to provide a maximum constraint on equilibrium Archaean continental thermal gradients, heat flow into the base of the lithosphere in the late Archaean must have been less than about 1.2–1.5 h.f.u. The relation between earth heat loss, the rate of plate creation and the rate of heat transport to the base of the lithosphere suggests that a significant proportion of the heat loss in the Archaean must have taken place by the processes of plate creation and subduction. The Archaean plate processes may have involved much more rapid production of plates only slightly thinner than at present.
3. 1980: Sclater, JjG, C. Jaupart, and D_ Galson. “The heat flow through oceanic and continental crust and the heat loss of the Earth.” Reviews of Geophysics 18.1 (1980): 269-311. The principal objective of this paper is to present a simple and self‐consistent review of the basic physical processes controlling heat loss from the earth. To accomplish this objective, we give a short summary of the oceanic and continental data and compare and contrast the respective mechanisms of heat loss. In the oceans we concentrate on the effect of hydrothermal circulation, and on the continents we consider in some detail a model relating surface heat flow to varying depth scales for the distribution of potassium, thorium, and uranium. From this comparison we conclude that the range in possible geotherms at depths below 100 to 150 km under continents and oceans overlaps and that the thermal structure beneath an old stable continent is indistinguishable from that beneath an ocean were it at equilibrium. Oceans and continents are part of the same thermal system. Both have an upper rigid mechanical layer where heat loss is by conduction and a lower thermal boundary layer where convection is dominant. The simple conductive definition of the plate thickness is an oversimplification. The observed distribution of area versus age in the ocean allows us to investigate the dominant mechanism of heat loss which is plate creation. This distribution and an understanding of the heat flow through oceans and continents can be used to calculate the heat loss of the earth. This heat loss is 10¹³ cal/s (4.2 × 10¹³W) of which more than 60% results from the creation of oceanic plate. The relation between area and age of the oceans is coupled to the ridge and subducting slab forces that contribute to the driving mechanism for plate motions. These forces are self‐regulating and maintain the rate of plate generation required to achieve a balance between heat loss and heat generation.
4. 1981: Sclater, John G., Barry Parsons, and Claude Jaupart. “Oceans and continents: similarities and differences in the mechanisms of heat loss.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth86.B12 (1981): 11535-11552. The principal objective of this paper is to present a simple and self‐consistent review of the basic physical processes controlling heat loss from the earth. To accomplish this objective, we give a short summary of the oceanic and continental data and compare and contrast the respective mechanisms of heat loss. In the oceans we concentrate on the effect of hydrothermal circulation, and on the continents we consider in some detail a model relating surface heat flow to varying depth scales for the distribution of potassium, thorium, and uranium. From this comparison we conclude that the range in possible geotherms at depths below 100 to 150 km under continents and oceans overlaps and that the thermal structure beneath an old stable continent is indistinguishable from that beneath an ocean were it at equilibrium. Oceans and continents are part of the same thermal system. Both have an upper rigid mechanical layer where heat loss is by conduction and a lower thermal boundary layer where convection is dominant. The simple conductive definition of the plate thickness is an oversimplification. The observed distribution of area versus age in the ocean allows us to investigate the dominant mechanism of heat loss which is plate creation. This distribution and an understanding of the heat flow through oceans and continents can be used to calculate the heat loss of the earth. This heat loss is 10¹³ cal/s (4.2 × 10¹³W) of which more than 60% results from the creation of oceanic plate. The relation between area and age of the oceans is coupled to the ridge and subducting slab forces that contribute to the driving mechanism for plate motions. These forces are self‐regulating and maintain the rate of plate generation required to achieve a balance between heat loss and heat generation.  [FULL TEXT]
5. 1984: Abbott, Dallas Helen, and S. E. Hoffman. “Archaean plate tectonics revisited 1. Heat flow, spreading rate, and the age of subducting oceanic lithosphere and their effects on the origin and evolution of continents.” Tectonics 3.4 (1984): 429-448. A simple model which relates the rate of seafloor creation and the age of the oceanic lithosphere at subduction to the rate of continental accretion can successfully explain the apparent differences between Archaean and Phanerozoic terrains in terms of plate tectonics. The model has been derived using the following parameters: (1) the spreading rate at mid‐ocean ridges; (2) the age of the oceanic lithosphere at the time of subduction; (3) the area‐age distribution of the seafloor; (4) the continental surface area as a fraction of the total surface area of the earth; and (5) the erosion rate of continents as a function of continental surface area and the total number of continental masses. Observations in Phanerozoic terranes suggest that there are profound differences in the nature and volume of subduction zone igneous activity depending upon the age of the oceanic lithosphere being subducted and the nature of the overriding plate (that is, either continental or oceanic). The subduction of young oceanic lithosphere (less than 50 m.y. old) which is thermally buoyant appears to result in a reduced volume of igneous activity. Most of the igneous activity caused by subduction of young oceanic lithosphere is either siliceous plutonism or bimodal tholeiitic‐rhyolitic volcanism. When very young lithosphere is being subducted (<30 m.y. old), volcanism appears to cease. The subduction of old oceanic lithosphere (>50 m.y. old) appears to result in greater volumes of igneous activity, including the eruption of andesitic magmas. Thus andesites could only begin to be abundant in the rock record when older oceanic lithosphere began to be subducted. Our model predicts that as the earth aged and as heat flow from the interior of the earth diminished, the proportion of old oceanic lithosphere being subducted increased, fundamentally changing the nature of subduction zone igneous activity and the rate of continental accretion. If the subduction of old oceanic lithosphere results in an 8–10 times greater volume of subduction zone magmatism, our model predicts or explains all of the following observed features of earth history: (1) Archaean terranes appear to record two periods of rapid continental accretion, between 3.8 and 3.5 b.y. ago and between 3.1 and 2.6 b.y. ago; (2) there are very few differences and many marked similarities between rocks from Archaean terranes and equivalent rocks from Phanerozoic terranes; (3) the total continental area appears to have remained essentially constant for the past 2 b.y. (4) Archaean andesites are comparatively rare, and the relative abundances of mafic and siliceous rocks appear to change during the Archaean and the Proterozoic, with siliceous volcanics becoming proportionately more abundant in the geologic record with time; (5) plutonic tonalites and trondhjemites appear to have been relatively much more abundant during the Archaean. Plate tectonics is thus shown to have evolved over time due to a gradually decreasing rate of creation of oceanic lithosphere, meaning that Archaean tectonics and Phanerozoic tectonics are but two points on an evolutionary continuum.  [FULL TEXT]
6. 1984: Abbott, Dallas Helen, and S. E. Hoffman. “Archaean plate tectonics revisited 1. Heat flow, spreading rate, and the age of subducting oceanic lithosphere and their effects on the origin and evolution of continents.” Tectonics 3.4 (1984): 429-448. A simple model which relates the rate of seafloor creation and the age of the oceanic lithosphere at subduction to the rate of continental accretion can successfully explain the apparent differences between Archaean and Phanerozoic terrains in terms of plate tectonics. The model has been derived using the following parameters: (1) the spreading rate at mid‐ocean ridges; (2) the age of the oceanic lithosphere at the time of subduction; (3) the area‐age distribution of the seafloor; (4) the continental surface area as a fraction of the total surface area of the earth; and (5) the erosion rate of continents as a function of continental surface area and the total number of continental masses. Observations in Phanerozoic terranes suggest that there are profound differences in the nature and volume of subduction zone igneous activity depending upon the age of the oceanic lithosphere being subducted and the nature of the overriding plate (that is, either continental or oceanic). The subduction of young oceanic lithosphere (less than 50 m.y. old) which is thermally buoyant appears to result in a reduced volume of igneous activity. Most of the igneous activity caused by subduction of young oceanic lithosphere is either siliceous plutonism or bimodal tholeiitic‐rhyolitic volcanism. When very young lithosphere is being subducted (<30 m.y. old), volcanism appears to cease. The subduction of old oceanic lithosphere (>50 m.y. old) appears to result in greater volumes of igneous activity, including the eruption of andesitic magmas. Thus andesites could only begin to be abundant in the rock record when older oceanic lithosphere began to be subducted. Our model predicts that as the earth aged and as heat flow from the interior of the earth diminished, the proportion of old oceanic lithosphere being subducted increased, fundamentally changing the nature of subduction zone igneous activity and the rate of continental accretion. If the subduction of old oceanic lithosphere results in an 8–10 times greater volume of subduction zone magmatism, our model predicts or explains all of the following observed features of earth history: (1) Archaean terranes appear to record two periods of rapid continental accretion, between 3.8 and 3.5 b.y. ago and between 3.1 and 2.6 b.y. ago; (2) there are very few differences and many marked similarities between rocks from Archaean terranes and equivalent rocks from Phanerozoic terranes; (3) the total continental area appears to have remained essentially constant for the past 2 b.y. (4) Archaean andesites are comparatively rare, and the relative abundances of mafic and siliceous rocks appear to change during the Archaean and the Proterozoic, with siliceous volcanics becoming proportionately more abundant in the geologic record with time; (5) plutonic tonalites and trondhjemites appear to have been relatively much more abundant during the Archaean. Plate tectonics is thus shown to have evolved over time due to a gradually decreasing rate of creation of oceanic lithosphere, meaning that Archaean tectonics and Phanerozoic tectonics are but two points on an evolutionary continuum.  [FULL TEXT]
7. 1984: Abbott, Dallas H. “Archaean plate tectonics revisited 2. Paleo‐sea level changes, continental area, oceanic heat loss and the area‐age distribution of the ocean basins.” Tectonics 3.7 (1984): 709-722. In a previous paper, we derived plate tectonic models for continental accretion from the early Archaean (3800 m.y. B.P.) until the present. The models are dependent upon the number of continental masses, the seafloor creation rate and the continental surface area. The models can be tested by examining their predictions for three key geological indicators: sea level changes, stable isotopic evolution (e.g., continental surface area), and oceanic heat loss. Models of paleo‐sea level changes produced by the accretion of the continents reproduce the following features of earth history: (1) greater continental emergence (lower sea level) during the Archaean than the Proterozoic; (2) maximum continental emergence about 3000 m.y. B.P.; and (3) maximum continental submergence (high sea level) from 30 to 125 m.y. B.P. The high sea level stand between 380–525 m.y. B.P. is only weakly reproduced, probably due to the simplified nature of the model. Changes in the number of continental masses can result in tectonic erosion or accretion of the continents, with resulting changes in sea level. The two major transgressions in the Phanerozoic, although still requiring some increase in the total terrestrial heat loss, can be sucessfully explained by a combination of increases in continental surface area and in seafloor creation rate. Changes in the total heat loss of the ocean basins predicted by our plate tectonic models closely parallel the changes in terrestrial heat production predicted by Wasserburg et al. (1964). This result is consistent with thermal history models which assume whole mantle convection. The history of changes in continental surface area predicted by our best continental accretion models lies within the ranges of estimated continental surface area derived from independent geochemical models of isotope evolution.  [FULL TEXT]
8. 1984: Gargett, A. E. “Vertical eddy diffusivity in the ocean interior.” Journal of Marine Research 42.2 (1984): 359-393. Vertical turbulent transport of density (mass) in a system of stable stratification ∂p/∂z < 0 (z positive upward) is often modelled by an “eddy” diffusivity K_v ≡ −/(∂p/∂z), normally assumed to be constant. Recent evidence from stratified lakes, fjords and oceans suggests that K_v may be more accurately described as a decreasing function of buoyancy frequency N ≡ (–g(_o)^–1 (∂p/∂z))^1/2. A main purpose of this paper is to review available estimates of K_v from a variety of stratified geophysical systems. Particular emphasis is placed upon the degree to which these estimates are dependent upon underlying models used to derive values for K_v from observable quantities. Most techniques reveal a disagreeable degree of model-dependence, frequently providing only upper bounds to the magnitude of K_v. I have coupled the functional dependence which emerges from the least model-dependent of available techniques with ensemble-averaged values of oceanic turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate per unit mass ε as a function of N, and show that the resulting parameterization for K_v is consistent with a wide range of present oceanic data. Finally, brief re-examination of a simple vertical advection/diffusion model of thermohaline circulation illustrates possible dynamical significance of a stratification-dependent K_v.
9. 1986: Joyce, Terrence M., Bruce A. Warren, and Lynne D. Talley. “The geothermal heating of the abyssal subarctic Pacific Ocean.” Deep Sea Research Part A. Oceanographic Research Papers 33.8 (1986): 1003-1015. Recent deep CTD-O₂ measurements in the abyssal North Pacific along 175°W, 152°W, and 47°N indicate large-scale changes in the O-S characteristics in the deepest kilometer of the water column. Geothermal heat flux from the abyssal sediments can be invoked as the agent for causing large-scale modification of abyssal temperatures (but not salinities) in the subarctic Pacific Ocean. East-west and north-south thermal age differences of about 100 years are inferred using a spatially uniform geothermal heat flux of 5 x 10^-2 WrmW m^-2.
10. 1988: Warren, Bruce A., and W. Brechner Owens. “Deep currents in the central subarctic Pacific Ocean.” Journal of Physical Oceanography 18.4 (1988): 529-551.Sections of closely spaced CTD stations along Longs. 165°W, 175°W and 175°E, in combination with 14-month current records from the central longitude, define two deep, nearly zonal currants, with speed increasing upward, in the subarctic Pacific. One flows eastward above the Aleutian Rise and Aleutian Trench, and appears to be a concentration of geostrophic flow forced by the bottom topography. The other flows westward along the Aleutian Island Arc, and is the northern-boundary current predicted by deep-circulation theory. Both currents reach to the sea surface, the boundary current being simply the deep part of the Alaskan Stream. The current records were too few to permit better than rough estimates of volume transports but to the extent that they could be combined with thermal-wind calculations they suggest, at 175°W, (1) a transport of 28 × 10⁶ m³ s⁻¹ for the Alaskan Stream, of whch 5 × 10⁶ m³ s⁻¹was found below 1500 m, and (2) a transport of around 20 × 1O⁶ m³ s⁻¹ for the eastward jet, of which some 5 × 10⁶–10 × 10⁶ m³ s⁻¹ was estimated below 1500 m. The deep water in the area surveyed was so nearly homogeneous that salinity, oxygen, and nutrients could generally be calculated from potential temperature within measurement error, these additional properties were therefore of only limited use in tracing the deep flow. However, temperature maps at depths of 2 and 4 km demonstrate continuity of the two deep currents across the 60° of longitude between Japan and the Gulf of Alaska. The eastward jet can be tracked back through the Emperor Seamount chain to the Zenkevich Rise off Japan, while the deep Alaskan Stream can be followed downstream to Long. 180°, where it separates from the boundary and flows due westward to the Emperor Seamount chain, which it rounds to the north, prior to its becoming the southward flowing deep western boundary current of the subarctic Pacific. Other details of the water-property fields are described in the text, and comparisons are made with the deep subpolar boundary flow of the North Atlantic.
11. 1989: Roemmich, Dean, and Tracy McCallister. “Large scale circulation of the North Pacific Ocean.” Progress in Oceanography 22.2 (1989): 171-204. Roemmich, Dean, and Tracy McCallister. “Large scale circulation of the North Pacific Ocean.” Progress in Oceanography 22.2 (1989): 171-204. A least squares inversion procedure is used to estimate the large scale cirulation and transport of the subtropical and subpolar North Pacific Ocean from a modern data set of long hydrographic transects. Initially a deep surface of known motion is specified using information derived from abyssal property distributions, moored current meter observations, and basin scale topographic constraints. A geostrophic solution is obtained which conserves mass while devaiting as little as possible in a least squares sense from the initial field. The sensitivity of the solution is tested with regard to changes in the initial field and to the addition of conservation constraints in layers. It is found that about 10 Sv of abyssal water flows northward across 24°N, principally between the dateline and 160°E, in the deepest part of the Northwest Pacific Basin. The flow turns westward across 152°E and then mostly northward again near the Izu-Ogasawara Ridge and the coast of Japan. It then feeds a strong deep anti-cyclonic recirculation beneath the cyclonic subpolar gyre in the Northwest Pacific Basin. The abyssal waters near the western boundary region are found to have a strong component of flow that is upward and across isopycnal surfaces. Here, the abyssal waters complete an important loop in the global thermohaline circulation, entering as bottom water from the South Pacific and returning southward in a less dense and shallower layer. Deep flow into the Northeast Pacific Basin, and circulation within that basin, appear to be weak, making it remote from the main pathway of deep water renewal.The circulation of the subtropical and subpolar gyres dominates transport in the upper layers. The subtropical gyre appears to penetrate to about 1500–2000 m on both sides of the Izu-Ogasawara Ridge, which blocks deeper flow between the Philippine Basin and the Northwest Pacific Basin. The Kuroshio is estimated to carry about 32 Sv northward in the East China Sea. Farther east, as the thermocline slopes upward toward the eastern boundary, the eastward flow is even shallower. In terms of eddy activity, three regimes are observed at 24°N. Peak-to-rough eddy fluctuations in geostrophically balanced sea level diminish from about 40 cm in the west to about 5 cm in the east. Overall, the western boudary of the ocean is about 25 cm higher than the eastern boundary in the 24°N section. Patterns of heat and freshwater flux determined in the North Pacific are in accord with those from air-sea heat flux estimates and hydrological data although the magnitudes are in some cases different. There is large heat loss in the western ocean amounting to about 9.6 × 10¹⁴ W and modest heat gain elsewhere. Heat transport across 24°N is estimated to be 7.5 × 10¹⁴ W. The subpolar ocean has a large excess of precipitation and runoff over evaporation, about 5.6 × 10⁵ m³s⁻³ north of 35°N, while in the subtropics there is excess evaporation, about 2.7 × 10⁵ m³s⁻¹ between 24°N and 35°N.
12. 1991: Duncan, Robert A., and M. A. Richards. “Hotspots, mantle plumes, flood basalts, and true polar wander.” Reviews of Geophysics 29.1 (1991): 31-50. Persistent, long‐lived, stationary sites of excessive mantle melting are called hotspots. Hotspots leave volcanic trails on lithospheric plates passing across them. The global constellation of fixed hotspots thus forms a convenient frame of reference for plate motions, through the orientations and age distributions of volcanic trails left by these melting anomalies. Hotspots appear to be maintained by whole‐mantle convection, in the form of upward flow through narrow plumes. Evidence suggests that plumes are deflected little by horizontal flow of the upper mantle. Mantle plumes are largely thermal features and arise from a thermal boundary layer, most likely the mantle layer just above the core‐mantle boundary. Experiments and theory show that gravitational instability drives flow, beginning with the formation of diapirs. Such a diapir will grow as it rises, fed by flow through the trailing conduit and entrainment of surrounding mantle. The structure thus develops a large, spherical plume head and a long, narrow tail. On arrival at the base of the lithosphere the plume head flattens and melts by decompression, producing enormous quantities of magma which erupt in a short period. These are flood basalt events that have occurred on continents and in ocean basins and that signal the beginning of major hotspot tracks. The plume‐supported hotspot reference frame is fixed in the steady state convective flow of the mantle and is independent of the core‐generated (axial dipole) paleomagnetic reference frame. Comparison of plate motions measured in the two frames reveals small but systematic differences that indicate whole‐mantle motion relative to the Earth’s spin axis. This is termed true polar wander and has amounted to some 12° since early Tertiary time. The direction and magnitude of true polar wander have varied sporadically through the Mesozoic, probably in response to major changes in plate motions (particularly subduction zone location) that change the planet’s moments of inertia.
13. 1992: Mahoney, J., et al. “Southwestern limits of Indian Ocean Ridge Mantle and the origin of low 206Pb/204Pb mid‐ocean ridge basalt: Isotope systematics of the central Southwest Indian Ridge (17°–50° E).” Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 97.B13 (1992): 19771-19790. Basalts from the Southwest Indian Ridge reflect a gradual, irregular isotopic transition in the MORB (mid‐ocean ridge basalt) source mantle between typical Indian Ocean‐type compositions on the east and Atlantic‐like ones on the west. A probable southwestern limit to the huge Indian Ocean isotopic domain is indicated by incompatible‐element‐depleted MORBs from 17° to 26°E, which possess essentially North Atlantic‐ or Pacific‐type signatures. Superimposed on the regional along‐axis gradient are at least three localized types of isotopically distinct, incompatible‐element‐enriched basalts. One characterizes the ridge between 36° and 39°E, directly north of the proposed Marion hotspot, and appears to be caused by mixing between hotspot and high ∈_Nd, normal MORB mantle; oceanic island products of the hotspot itself exhibit a very restricted range of isotopic values (e.g., ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 18.5–18.6) which are more MORB‐like than those of other Indian Ocean islands. Between 39° and 41°E, high Ba/Nb lavas with unusually low ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb (16.87–17.44) and ∈_Nd (−4 to +3) are dominant; these compositions are not only unlike those of the Marion (or any other) hotspot but also are unique among MORBs globally. Incompatible‐elementenriched lavas in the vicinity of the Indomed Fracture Zone (∼46°E) differ isotopically from those at 39°–41°E, 36°–39°E, and both the Marion and Crozet hotspots. Thus, no simple model of ridgeward flow of plume mantle can explain the presence or distribution of all the incompatible‐element‐enriched MORBs on the central Southwest Indian Ridge. The upper mantle at 39°–41°E, in particular, may contain stranded continental lithosphere, thermally eroded from Indo‐Madagascar in the middle Cretaceous. Alternatively, the composition of the; Marion hotspot must be grossly heterogeneous in space and/or time, and one of its intrinsic components must have substantially lower ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb than yet measured for any hotspot. The origin of the broadly similar but much less extreme isotopic signatures of MORBs throughout most of the Indian Ocean could be related to the initiation of the Marion, Kerguelen, and Crozet hotspots, which together may have formed a more than 4400‐km‐long band of juxtaposed plume heads beneath the nearly stationary lithosphere of prebreakup Gondwana.
14. 1993: Müller, R. Dietmar, Jean-Yves Royer, and Lawrence A. Lawver. “Revised plate motions relative to the hotspots from combined Atlantic and Indian Ocean hotspot tracks.” Geology21.3 (1993): 275-278. We use an updated model for global relative plate motions during the past 130 m.y. together with a compilation of bathymetry and recently published radiometric dates of major hotspot tracks to derive a plate-motion model relative to major hotspots in the Atlantic and Indian oceans. Interactive computer graphics were used to find the best fit of dated hotspot tracks on the Australian, Indian, African, and North and South American plates relative to present-day hotspots assumed fixed in the mantle. One set of rotation parameters can be found that satisfies all data constraints back to chron 34 (84 Ma) and supports little motion between the major hotspots in this hemisphere. For times between 130 and 84 Ma, the plate model is based solely on the trails of the Tristan da Cunha and Great Meteor hotspots. This approach results in a location of the Kerguelen hotspot distinct from and south of the Rajmahal Traps for this time interval. Between 115 and 105 Ma, our model locates the hotspot underneath the southern Kerguelen Plateau, which is compatible with an age estimate of this part of the plateau of 115-95 Ma. Our model suggests that the 85°E ridge between lat 10°N and the Afanasiy Nikitin seamounts may have been formed by a hotspot now located underneath the eastern Conrad rise.
15. 1993: Pollack, Henry N., Suzanne J. Hurter, and Jeffrey R. Johnson. “Heat flow from the Earth’s interior: analysis of the global data set.” Reviews of Geophysics 31.3 (1993): 267-280. We present a new estimate of the Earth’s heat loss based on a new global compilation of heat flow measurements comprising 24,774 observations at 20,201 sites. On a 5° × 5° grid, the observations cover 62% of the Earth’s surface. Empirical estimators, referenced to geological map units and derived from the observations, enable heat flow to be estimated in areas without measurements. Corrections for the effects of hydrothermal circulation in the oceanic crust compensate for the advected heat undetected in measurements of the conductive heat flux. The mean heat flows of continents and oceans are 65 and 101 mW m⁻², respectively, which when areally weighted yield a global mean of 87 mW m⁻² and a global heat loss of 44.2 × 10¹² W, an increase of some 4–8% over earlier estimates. More than half of the Earth’s heat loss comes from Cenozoic oceanic lithosphere. A spherical harmonic analysis of the global heat flow field reveals strong sectoral components and lesser zonal strength. The spectrum principally reflects the geographic distribution of the ocean ridge system. The rate at which the heat flow spectrum loses strength with increasing harmonic degree is similar to the decline in spectral strength exhibited by the Earth’s topography. The spectra of the gravitational and magnetic fields fall off much more steeply, consistent with field sources in the lower mantle and core, respectively. Families of continental and oceanic conductive geotherms indicate the range of temperatures existing in the lithosphere under various surface heat flow conditions. The heat flow field is very well correlated with the seismic shear wave velocity distribution near the top of the upper mantle. [FULL TEXT]
16. 1994: Stein, Carol A., and Seth Stein. “Constraints on hydrothermal heat flux through the oceanic lithosphere from global heat flow.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 99.B2 (1994): 3081-3095. A significant discrepancy exists between the heat flow measured at the seafloor and the higher values predicted by thermal models of the cooling lithosphere. This discrepancy is generally interpreted as indicating that the upper oceanic crust is cooled significantly by hydrothermal circulation. The magnitude of this heat flow discrepancy is the primary datum used to estimate the volume of hydrothermal flow, and the variation in the discrepancy with lithospheric age is the primary constraint on how the hydrothermal flux is divided between near‐ridge and off‐ridge environments. The resulting estimates are important for investigation of both the thermal structure of the lithosphere and the chemistry of the oceans. We reevaluate the magnitude and age variation of the discrepancy using a global heat flow data set substantially larger than in earlier studies, and the GDH1 (Global Depth and Heat flow) model that better predicts the heat flow. We estimate that of the predicted global oceanic heat flux of 32×10¹² W, 34% (11×10¹² W) occurs by hydrothermal flow. Approximately 30% of the hydrothermal heat flux occurs in crust younger than 1 Ma, so the majority of this flux is off‐ridge. These hydrothermal heat flux estimates are upper bounds, because heat flow measurements require sediment at the site and so are made preferentially at topographic lows, where heat flow may be depressed. Because the water temperature for the near‐ridge flow exceeds that for the off‐ridge flow, the near‐ridge water flow will be even a smaller fraction of the total water flow. As a result, in estimating fluxes from geochemical data, use of the high water temperatures appropriate for the ridge axis may significantly overestimate the heat flux for an assumed water flux or underestimate the water flux for an assumed heat flux. Our data also permit improved estimates of the “sealing” age, defined as the age where the observed heat flow approximately equals that predicted, suggesting that hydrothermal heat transfer has largely ceased. Although earlier studies suggested major differences in sealing ages for different ocean basins, we find that the sealing ages for the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian oceans are similar and consistent with the sealing age for the entire data set, 65±10 Ma. The previous inference of a young (∼20 Ma) sealing age for the Pacific appears to have biased downward several previous estimates of the global hydrothermal flux. The heat flow data also provide indirect evidence for the mechanism by which the hydrothermal heat flux becomes small, which has often been ascribed to isolation of the igneous crust from seawater due to the hydraulic conductivity of the intervening sediment. We find, however, that even the least sedimented sites show the systematic increase of the ratio of observed to predicted heat flow with age, although the more sedimented sites have a younger sealing age. Moreover, the heat flow discrepancy persists at heavily sedimented sites until ∼50 Ma. It thus appears that ∼100–200 m of sediment is neither necessary nor sufficient to stop hydrothermal heat transfer. We therefore conclude that the age of the crust is the primary control on the fraction of heat transported by hydrothermal flow and that sediment thickness has a lesser effect. This inference is consistent with models in which hydrothermal flow decreases with age due to reduced crustal porosity and hence permeability.
17. 1996: Thompson, Luanne, and Gregory C. Johnson. “Abyssal currents generated by diffusion and geothermal heating over rises.” Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers 43.2 (1996): 193-211. A continuously stratified (in both salinity and temperature) diffusive time-dependent one-dimensional f-plane model over a sloping bottom is constructed. The model is used to investigate the role of mixing of density near the bottom on large-scale abyssal flow near mid-ocean rises. For realistic abyssal values, both geothermal heating from the bottom and diffusion can be important to the dynamics of flow over mid-ocean rises. When diffusion dominates, buoyancy is transported toward the bottom and the θ–S (potential temperature-salinity) relation remains nearly linear. When geothermal heating dominates, the θ–Srelation hooks near the bottom and a convectively driven mixed layer forms. Both effects reduce the density and stratification near the bottom. In contrast, bottom-intensified diffusion has the same effect near the bottom but results in an increase of density and stratification some distance above the bottom. If the bottom slopes, a horizontal density gradient results, setting up a geostrophic, bottom-intensified, along-slope flow that can effect mass transport. Evidence of the importance of these processes is found in the abyssal Pacific. Just over the western flank of the East Pacific Rise, a 700–900 m thick layer of low N₂(buoyancy frequency) is warmer, saltier, and lighter than interior water at the same depth. This layer is described with CTD data from recent hydrographic sections at nominal latitudes 15°S and 10°N. If the interior is motionless, this low N² layer transports 4 and 8 × 10⁶ m³ s⁻¹ equatorward above the western flank of the rise at 15°S and 10°N, respectively. This equatorward current, a direct result of diffusion and heating over a sloping sea-floor, has a volume transport comparable to those of the deep western boundary current at these latitudes.
18. 2001: Scott, Jeffery R., Jochem Marotzke, and Alistair Adcroft. “Geothermal heating and its influence on the meridional overturning circulation.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 106.C12 (2001): 31141-31154. The effect of geothermal heating on the meridional overturning circulation is examined using an idealized, coarse‐resolution ocean general circulation model. This heating is parameterized as a spatially uniform heat flux of 50 m W m⁻² through the (flat) ocean floor, in contrast with previous studies that have considered regional circulation changes caused by an isolated hot spot or a series of plumes along the Mid‐Atlantic Ridge. In our model results the equilibrated response is largely advective: a deep perturbation of the meridional overturning cell on the order of several sverdrups is produced, connecting with an upper level circulation at high latitudes, allowing the additional heat to be released to the atmosphere. Rising motion in the perturbation deep cell is concentrated near the equator. The upward penetration of this cell is limited by the thermocline, analogous to the role of the stratosphere in limiting the upward penetration of convective plumes in the atmosphere. The magnitude of the advective response is inversely proportional to the deep stratification; with a weaker background meridional overturning circulation and a less stratified abyss the overturning maximum of the perturbation deep cell is increased. This advective response also cools the low‐latitude thermocline. The qualitative behavior is similar in both a single‐hemisphere and a double‐hemisphere configuration. In summary, the anomalous circulation driven by geothermal fluxes is more substantial than previously thought. We are able to understand the structure and strength of the response in the idealized geometry and further extend these ideas to explain the results of Adcroft et al. [2001], where the impact of geothermal heating was examined using a global configuration. [FULL TEXT]
19. 2001: Adcroft, Alistair, Jeffery R. Scott, and Jochem Marotzke. “Impact of geothermal heating on the global ocean circulation.” Geophysical Research Letters 28.9 (2001): 1735-1738. The response of a global circulation model to a uniform geothermal heat flux of 50 mW m⁻² through the sea floor is examined. If the geothermal heat input were transported upward purely by diffusion, the deep ocean would warm by 1.2°C. However, geothermal heating induces a substantial change in the deep circulation which is larger than previously assumed and subsequently the warming of the deep ocean is only a quarter of that suggested by the diffusive limit. The numerical ocean model responds most strongly in the Indo‐Pacific with an increase in meridional overturning of 1.8 Sv, enhancing the existing overturning by approximately 25%.  [FULL TEXT]
20. 2003: Bai, Wuming, Wenyue Xu, and Robert P. Lowell. “The dynamics of submarine geothermal heat pipes.” Geophysical Research Letters 30.3 (2003). To better understand natural two‐phase hydrothermal systems, we have constructed one‐dimensional heat‐pipe solutions for NaCl‐H₂O fluids and explored the effects of basal heat flux and permeability on their behavior. For seafloor conditions, saline brines form quickly at the base of the heat pipe; and in some cases halite is precipitated. NaCl‐H₂O heat pipes may become liquid or vapor dominated but, in contrast to their pure‐water counterparts, often do not achieve steady state. When steady state solutions do exist, they are characterized either by broad, weak counter‐flow or by vigorous counter‐flow across a thin layer. The latter behavior may be analogous to that occurring in the Salton Sea Geothermal System, California.
21. 2004: Fukasawa, Masao, et al. “Bottom water warming in the North Pacific Ocean.” Nature 427.6977 (2004): 825. Observations of changes in the properties of ocean waters have been restricted to surface¹ or intermediate-depth waters^2,3, because the detection of change in bottom water is extremely difficult owing to the small magnitude of the expected signals. Nevertheless, temporal changes in the properties of such deep waters across an ocean basin are of particular interest, as they can be used to constrain the transport of water at the bottom of the ocean and to detect changes in the global thermohaline circulation. Here we present a comparison of a trans-Pacific survey completed in 1985 (refs 4, 5) and its repetition in 1999 (ref. 6). We find that the deepest waters of the North Pacific Ocean have warmed significantly across the entire width of the ocean basin. Our observations imply that changes in water properties are now detectable in water masses that have long been insulated from heat exchange with the atmosphere.
22. 2005: Oskooi, Behrooz, et al. “The deep geothermal structure of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge deduced from MT data in SW Iceland.” Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors 150.1-3 (2005): 183-195. Iceland is very active tectonically as it is crossed by the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and its associated rift zones and transform faults. The high-temperature geothermal systems are located within the neo-volcanic zone. A detailed comparison of the main features of the resistivity models and well data in exploited geothermal fields has shown that the resistivity structure of Iceland is mainly controlled by alteration mineralogy. In areas where the geothermal circulation and related alteration take place at depths of more than 1.5 km, the investigation depth of the DC and TEM methods is inadequate and the MT method appears to be the most suitable survey method. MT soundings were carried out to determine the deep structure between two neighboring Quaternary geothermal fields: the Hengill volcanic complex and the Brennisteinsfjoll geothermal system, both known as high-temperature systems. MT data were analyzed and modeled using 1D and 2D inversion schemes. Our model of electrical conductivity can be related to secondary mineralization from geothermal fluids. At shallow depths, the resistivity model obtained from the MT data is consistent with the general geoelectrical models of high-temperature geothermal systems in Iceland, as revealed by shallow DC and TEM surveys. The current MT results reveal the presence of an outcropping resistive layer, identified as the typical unaltered porous basalt of the upper crust. This layer is underlain by a highly conductive cap resolved as the smectite–zeolite zone. Below this cap a less conductive zone is identified as the epidote–chlorite zone. A highly conductive material has been recognized in the middle of the profile, at about 5 km depth, and has been interpreted as cooling partial melt representing the main heat source of the geothermal system. This conductor may be connected to the shallow structure through a vertical fault zone located close to the southern edge of the profile
23. 2005: Adkins, Jess F., Andrew P. Ingersoll, and Claudia Pasquero. “Rapid climate change and conditional instability of the glacial deep ocean from the thermobaric effect and geothermal heating.” Quaternary Science Reviews 24.5-6 (2005): 581-594. Previous results from deep-sea pore fluid data demonstrate that the glacial deep ocean was filled with salty, cold water from the South. This salinity stratification of the ocean allows for the possible accumulation of geothermal heat in the deep-sea and could result in a water column with cold fresh water on top of warm salty water and with a corresponding increase in potential energy. For an idealized 4000 dbar two-layer water column, we calculate that there are ∼106 J/m2 (∼0.2 J/kg) of potential energy available when a 0.4 psu salinity contrast is balanced by a ∼2 °C temperature difference. This salt-based storage of heat at depth is analogous to Convectively Available Potential Energy (CAPE) in the atmosphere. The “thermobaric effect” in the seawater equation of state can cause this potential energy to be released catastrophically. Because deep ocean stratification was dominated by salinity at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the glacial climate is more sensitive to charging this “thermobaric capacitor” and can plausibly explain many aspects of the record of rapid climate change. Our mechanism could account for the grouping of Dansgaard/Oeschger events into Bond Cycles and for the different patterns of warming observed in ice cores from separate hemispheres.
24. 2006: Kawano, Takeshi, et al. “Bottom water warming along the pathway of lower circumpolar deep water in the Pacific Ocean.” Geophysical Research Letters 33.23 (2006). The role of the Thermo‐Haline Circulation (THC) in climate is an important aspect of the planetary response to global warming. Model studies suggest that the THC in the Atlantic Ocean is sensitive to anthropogenic climate change [Cubash and Meehl, 2001]. Recently Bryden et al. [2005] reported that the Atlantic meridional circulation had slowed by about 30% between 1957 and 2004, based on five sets of repeated trans‐Atlantic observations along 25°N. The warming trend of the global ocean [Levitus et al., 2000], decreases in the signature of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) in the South Pacific [Johnson et al., 1994], and the warming at mid‐depths in the Southern Ocean [Gille, 2002] could all potentially affect the THC in the Pacific Ocean. [3] Lower Circumpolar Deep Water (LCDW) formed in the Southern Ocean flows along the bottom in the Pacific Ocean as the northward component of the THC. It enters the Pacific east of New Zealand and flows northward to the North Pacific through the Samoan Passage. It upwells in the North Pacific and returns southward as modified North Pacific Deep Water (mNPDW) [Schmitz, 1996]. Repeated trans‐Pacific surveys along 47°N show that the deepest waters of the North Pacific Ocean have warmed significantly owing to a decrease in the volume of the colder portion of modified NADW, which is the upper part of LCDW [Fukasawa et al., 2004], but the relationship between this warming and reported decreases in the NADW signature in the South Pacific Ocean [Johnson et al., 1994; Johnson and Orsi, 1997] is not clear. Here we analyze data collected between 2003 and 2006 by trans‐Pacific surveys along 32°S, 149°E, 24°N, and 30°N. These surveys were designed to revisit the hydrographic stations previously occupied during the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) and thus improve our understanding of temperature changes in the deep and bottom water of the Pacific Ocean.
25. 2006: Mullarney, Julia C., Ross W. Griffiths, and Graham O. Hughes. “The effects of geothermal heating on the ocean overturning circulation.” Geophysical research letters 33.2 (2006). We examine the response of an overturning circulation, driven by differential thermal forcing along the top horizontal boundary, to a small additional heat flux applied at the bottom horizontal boundary. The system forms a simple thermally‐driven flow that provides insight into the ocean’s meridional overturning circulation. We conclude that the additional destabilising (geothermal) heat flux tends to promote a more vigorous full‐depth overturning having approximately 10% greater volume flux than with no bottom heating. No significant change is observed in the vertical density structure. In contrast, the addition of a stabilising heat flux at the base leads to a shallow, partial‐depth circulation. The key diagnostic for the significance of the geothermal flux appears to be the ratio of the buoyancy flux supplied at the bottom to the residual buoyancy flux driving the downwelling plume through the base of the thermocline.
26. 2006: Björk, Göran, and Peter Winsor. “The deep waters of the Eurasian Basin, Arctic Ocean: Geothermal heat flow, mixing and renewal.” Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers 53.7 (2006): 1253-1271. Hydrographic observations from four separate expeditions to the Eurasian Basin of the Arctic Ocean between 1991 and 2001 show a 300–700 m thick homogenous bottom layer. The layer is characterized by slightly warmer temperature compared to ambient, overlying water masses, with a mean layer thickness of 500±100 m and a temperature surplus of 7.0±2×10⁻³ °C. The layer is present in the deep central parts of the Nansen and Amundsen Basins away from continental slopes and ocean ridges and is spatially coherent across the interior parts of the deep basins. Here we show that the layer is most likely formed by convection induced by geothermal heat supplied from Earth’s interior. Data from 1991 to 1996 indicate that the layer was in a quasi steady state where the geothermal heat supply was balanced by heat exchange with a colder boundary. After 1996 there is evidence of a reformation of the layer in the Amundsen Basin after a water exchange. Simple numerical calculations show that it is possible to generate a layer similar to the one observed in 2001 in 4–5 years, starting from initial profiles with no warm homogeneous bottom layer. Limited hydrographic observations from 2001 indicate that the entire deep-water column in the Amundsen Basin is warmer compared to earlier years. We argue that this is due to a major deep-water renewal that occurred between 1996 and 2001.
27. 2006: Kawano, Takeshi, et al. “Bottom water warming along the pathway of lower circumpolar deep water in the Pacific Ocean.” Geophysical Research Letters 33.23 (2006). Repeat trans‐Pacific hydrographic observations along the pathway of Lower Circumpolar Deep Water (LCDW) reveal that bottom water has warmed by about 0.005 to 0.01°C in recent decades. The warming is probably not from direct heating of LCDW, but is manifest as a decrease of the coldest component of LCDW evident at each hydrographic section. This result is consistent with numerical model results of warming associated with decreased bottom water formation rates around Antarctica.  [FULL TEXT]
28. 2009: Emile-Geay, Julien, and Gurvan Madec. “Geothermal heating, diapycnal mixing and the abyssal circulation.” Ocean Science5.2 (2009): 203-217. The dynamical role of geothermal heating in abyssal circulation is reconsidered using three independent arguments. First, we show that a uniform geothermal heat flux close to the observed average (86.4 mW m−2) supplies as much heat to near-bottom water as a diapycnal mixing rate of ~10−4 m2 s−1 – the canonical value thought to be responsible for the magnitude of the present-day abyssal circulation. This parity raises the possibility that geothermal heating could have a dynamical impact of the same order. Second, we estimate the magnitude of geothermally-induced circulation with the density-binning method (Walin, 1982), applied to the observed thermohaline structure of Levitus (1998). The method also allows to investigate the effect of realistic spatial variations of the flux obtained from heatflow measurements and classical theories of lithospheric cooling. It is found that a uniform heatflow forces a transformation of ~6 Sv at σ4=45.90, which is of the same order as current best estimates of AABW circulation. This transformation can be thought of as the geothermal circulation in the absence of mixing and is very similar for a realistic heatflow, albeit shifted towards slightly lighter density classes. Third, we use a general ocean circulation model in global configuration to perform three sets of experiments: (1) a thermally homogenous abyssal ocean with and without uniform geothermal heating; (2) a more stratified abyssal ocean subject to (i) no geothermal heating, (ii) a constant heat flux of 86.4 mW m−2, (iii) a realistic, spatially varying heat flux of identical global average; (3) experiments (i) and (iii) with enhanced vertical mixing at depth. Geothermal heating and diapycnal mixing are found to interact non-linearly through the density field, with geothermal heating eroding the deep stratification supporting a downward diffusive flux, while diapycnal mixing acts to map near-surface temperature gradients onto the bottom, thereby altering the density structure that supports a geothermal circulation. For strong vertical mixing rates, geothermal heating enhances the AABW cell by about 15% (2.5 Sv) and heats up the last 2000 m by ~0.15°C, reaching a maximum of by 0.3°C in the deep North Pacific. Prescribing a realistic spatial distribution of the heat flux acts to enhance this temperature rise at mid-depth and reduce it at great depth, producing a more modest increase in overturning than in the uniform case. In all cases, however, poleward heat transport increases by ~10% in the Southern Ocean. The three approaches converge to the conclusion that geothermal heating is an important actor of abyssal dynamics, and should no longer be neglected in oceanographic studies.
29. 2009: Hofmann, M., and Morales Maqueda. “Geothermal heat flux and its influence on the oceanic abyssal circulation and radiocarbon distribution.” Geophysical Research Letters 36.3 (2009). Geothermal heating of abyssal waters is rarely regarded as a significant driver of the large‐scale oceanic circulation. Numerical experiments with the Ocean General Circulation Model POTSMOM‐1.0 suggest, however, that the impact of geothermal heat flux on deep ocean circulation is not negligible. Geothermal heating contributes to an overall warming of bottom waters by about 0.4°C, decreasing the stability of the water column and enhancing the formation rates of North Atlantic Deep Water and Antarctic Bottom Water by 1.5 Sv (10%) and 3 Sv (33%), respectively. Increased influx of Antarctic Bottom Water leads to a radiocarbon enrichment of Pacific Ocean waters, increasing Δ¹⁴C values in the deep North Pacific from −269‰ when geothermal heating is ignored in the model, to −242‰ when geothermal heating is included. A stronger and deeper Atlantic meridional overturning cell causes warming of the North Atlantic deep western boundary current by up to 1.5°C.
30. 2010: Masuda, Shuhei, et al. “Simulated rapid warming of abyssal North Pacific waters.” Science (2010): 1188703. Recent observational surveys have shown significant oceanic bottom-water warming. However, the mechanisms causing such warming remain poorly understood and their time scales are uncertain. Here, we report computer simulations that reveal a fast teleconnection between changes in the surface air-sea heat flux off the Adélie Coast of Antarctica and the bottom-water warming in the North Pacific. In contrast to conventional estimates of a multicentennial timescale, this link is established over only four decades through the action of internal waves. Changes in the heat content of the deep ocean are thus far more sensitive to the air-sea thermal interchanges than previously considered. Our findings require a reassessment of the role of the Southern Ocean in determining the impact of atmospheric warming on deep oceanic waters
31. 2015: James Edward Kamis, Deep Ocean Rock Layer Mega-Fluid Flow Systems  [LINK]  Fluid flow of chemically charged seawater through and within very deep ocean rock layers is virtually unknown until recently. It is here proposed that the flow rate, flow amount, and flow duration of these systems is many orders of magnitude greater than previously thought. As a result the affect these systems have on our climate has been dramatically underestimated. It is proposed that Deep Ocean Rock Layer fluid Flow Systems are quite possibly an extremely important factor in influencing earth’s atmospheric climate, earth’s ocean climate, and earth’s ocean biologic communities. The mechanism for these relationships are strong El Nino’s / La Nina’s, altering major ocean currents, locally altering polar ice cap melting, infusing the ocean with needed minerals, affecting ocean fish migration patterns, acting to maintain huge chemosynthetic communities, acting to spread new species, and acting to eliminate weak species. It is possible that these systems will be proved to be unique/ different from land based hydrodynamic systems in many ways, and if proven correct this would be an extremely important new concept. Scientists have assumed that land based fluid flow / hydrologic systems would be a good analogy. It is here contended that this is an incorrect assumption. These deep ocean systems do not act like land based systems. The major difference of deep ocean fluid flow systems is that they likely flow significantly greater amounts of heat and chemically charged fluid than previously realized. Deep ocean hydrothermal vents and cold seeps are here hypothesized be a just a small part of these here-to-for unrecognized and much larger deep ocean fluid flow systems. This is a very different way of perceiving fluid flow through deep ocean basin rock and sediment layers. To date most scientists have thought of deep ocean rock and sediment layers as basically bottom seals that largely did not and do not interact with the overlying ocean. It is here contended that these systems will be some day be proven to be immense, many of them covering huge regions and extending to great depths of many thousands of feet into ocean rock and sediment layers. In essence they will be found to be part of a continuum between the ocean crust, which they are part of, and upper mantle. Some of the perceived important differences between deep ocean fluid flow systems and land hydrologic systems are as follows
32. 2016: James Edward Kamis, How Geological Forces Rock the Earth’s Climate [LINK]  Geological forces influence the planet’s climate in many specific and measurable ways. They melt the base of polar glaciers, abruptly change the course of deep ocean currents, influence the distribution of plankton blooms, infuse our atmosphere with volcanic sulfur rich ash, modify huge sub-ocean biologic communities, and generate all El Niño / La Niñas’ cycles. Given all of this very convincing information, many of today’s supposedly expert scientists still vehemently insist that our climate is completely / exclusively driven by atmospheric forces. This work challenges that orthodoxy. Three new game-changing pieces of geological information have been revealed: the discovery of an extensive field of active seafloor volcanoes and faults in the far western Pacific, iron enrichment of a huge ocean region off the coast of Antarctica, and the timing of western Pacific Ocean earthquakes vs. El Niños. A significant portion of the Earth’s climate is driven by massive fluid flow of super-heated and chemically charged seawater up and out from major fault zones and associated volcanic features. New geological information is changing the way we view long term climate variability. The data covers significant areas of the ocean measured in hundreds of miles laterally and thousands of feet vertically, and lastly the data is clearly related to geological forces and rather than the exclusive domain of the atmosphere.
33. 2017: James Edward Kamis, Global Warming and Plate Climatology Theory [LINK] The Plate Climatology Theory was originally posted on Climate Change Dispatch October 7, 2014. Since that time other information in the form of several relatively new publications has been incorporated into the theory, and as a result key aspects of the theory have been strengthened. Not proven, but strengthened. This new information does prove one thing, that this theory should be given strong consideration by all scientists studying Global Climate. I am in no way attempting to prove the other guys wrong. Rather Plate Climatology is intended to be additive to the excellent work done to date. It may open the way to resolving the “Natural Variation” question currently being debated by Climate Scientists. What could be more natural than geological events influencing Climate? It is expected that this work will act as a catalyst for future research and provide a platform to join what are now several independently researched branches of science; Geology, Climatology, Meteorology, and Biology. The science of Climate is extremely complex and necessitates a multi-disciplinary approach.
34. 2018: James Edward Kamis, The influence of oceanic and continental fault boundaries on climate [LINK] Another giant piece of the climate science puzzle just fell into place, specifically that geological heat flow is now proven to be the primary force responsible for anomalous bottom melting and break-up of many West Antarctica glaciers, and not atmospheric warming. This new insight is the result of a just released National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Antarctica geological research study (see here). Results of this study have forever changed how consensus climate scientists and those advocating the theory of Climate Change / Global Warming, view Antarctica’s anomalous climate and climate related events. In a broader theoretical sense, results of the NASA study challenge the veracity of the most important building block principle of the Climate Change Theory, specifically that emissions of CO2 and carbon by humans is responsible for the vast majority of earth’s anomalous climate phenomena. This article will provide evidence that geological forces associated with major oceanic and continental fault boundaries influence and in some cases completely control a significant portion of earth’s anomalous climate and many of its anomalous climate related events.

 

 

OTHER STUDIES OF GEOTHERMAL HEAT IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 2000-2018

1. [PAUL HOMEWOOD, OCTOBER 10 2018]
2. [WILLIS ESCHENBACH AUGUST 15 2011]
3. [WILLIS ESCHENBACH FEBRUARY 25 2013]
4. [BOB TISDALE MARCH 13 2013]
5. [KEN RICE APRIL 15 2013]
6. [KEN RICE APRIL 18 2013]
7. [KEN RICE APRIL 23 2013]
8. [KEN RICE JULY 23 2013]
9. [KEN RICE SEPTEMBER 27 2013]
10. [KEN RICE SEPTEMBER 30 2013]
11. [WILLIS ESCHENBACH JANUARY 1 2014]
12. [WILLIS ESCHENBACH JANUARY 5 2014]
13. [KEN RICE JANUARY 22 2014]
14. [KEN RICE JANUARY 23 2014]
15. [KEN RICE FEBRUARY 12 2014]
16. [KEN RICE MAY 1 2014]
17. [KEN RICE MAY 7 2014]
18. [KEN RICE OCTOBER 6 2014]*
19. [KEN RICE DECEMBER 1 2014]
20. [WILLIS ESCHENBACH DECEMBER 4 2014]
21. [BOB TISDALE DECEMBER 9 2014]
22. [WILLIS ESCHENBACH JANUARY 22 2015]
23. [KEN RICE JUNE 22 2015]
24. [BOB TISDALE AUGUST 26 2015]
25. [KEN RICE JANUARY 19 2016]
26. [KEN RICE JULY 28 2016]
27. [ANTHONY WATTS DECEMBER 1 2017]
28. [DAVID MIDDLETON JANUARY 4 2018]
29. [ANTHONY WATTS JANUARY 4 2018]

 

FIGURE 1: PALEO TEMPERATURE DATA FOR THE ARCTIC FROM 20 SOURCES

 

FIGURE 2: SUMMARY TABLE

 

FIGURE 3: GIF IMAGE CYCLES THROUGH ALL DATA STATIONS

 

FIGURE 4: ARCTIC OCEAN GEOTHERMAL ACTIVITY   [JAMES KAMIS]

 

 

RELATED POST:  Does Global Warming Drive Changes in Arctic Sea Ice?

 

1. In late 2017 and early 2018 a number of high profile news media sources cited a US Federal Government report to claim that “warming in the Arctic is unprecedented in 1,500 years”. Here are some examples:[DIGITAL JOURNAL, Scientists alarmed by unprecedented warming in Arctic: By Karen Graham, Feb 28, 2018 in Environment], [USA TODAY, The Arctic is warming faster than it has in 1,500 years: Doyle Rice, Dec. 12, 2017], [MASHABLE ASIA, Recent Arctic warming ‘unprecedented’ in human history, Andrew Freedman, DEC 13, 2017], [DISCOVER MAGAZINE, A major federal report about the Arctic released yesterday finds that the current rate of Arctic warming is unprecedented in at least the past 2,000 years. And the pace of Arctic sea ice loss experienced in the past few decades has not been seen in at least the past 1,450 years. Tom Yulsman, December 13, 2017], [WASHINGTON POST, Warming of the Arctic is ‘unprecedented over the last 1,500 years, Chris Mooney December 12, 2017], [THE GUARDIAN, Record warmth in the Arctic this month could yet prove to be a freak occurrence, but experts warn the warming event is unprecedented. Jonathan Watts, environment editor, Tue 27 Feb 2018]. Their source was the 2017 NOAA Arctic Report Card a summary of which appears in the next paragraph.
2. NOAA: “The Arctic shows no sign of returning to reliably frozen region of recent past decades. Despite relatively cool summer temperatures, observations in 2017 continue to indicate that the Arctic environmental system has reached a ‘new normal’, characterized by long-term losses in the extent and thickness of the sea ice cover, the extent and duration of the winter snow cover and the mass of ice in the Greenland Ice Sheet and Arctic glaciers, and warming sea surface and permafrost temperatures. The average surface air temperature for the year ending September 2017 is the 2nd warmest since 1900; however, cooler spring and summer temperatures contributed to a rebound in snow cover in the Eurasian Arctic, slower summer sea ice loss, and below-average melt extent for the Greenland ice sheet. The sea ice cover continues to be relatively young and thin with older, thicker ice comprising only 21% of the ice cover in 2017 compared to 45% in 1985. In August 2017, sea surface temperatures in the Barents and Chukchi seas were up to 4° C warmer than average, contributing to a delay in the autumn freeze-up in these regions. Pronounced increases in ocean primary productivity, at the base of the marine food web, were observed in the Barents and Eurasian Arctic seas from 2003 to 2017. Arctic tundra is experiencing increased greenness and record permafrost warming. Pervasive changes in the environment are influencing resource management protocols, including those established for fisheries and wildfires. The unprecedented rate and global reach of Arctic change disproportionately affect the people of northern communities, further pressing the need to prepare for and adapt to the new Arctic.“
3. The claim that “warming in the Arctic is unprecedented” can be interpreted as a reference to temperature or to the rate of warming, or perhaps to both. The importance of the rate of warming in climate science is underscored by this statement from the NASA website “If Earth has warmed and cooled throughout history, what makes scientists think that humans are causing global warming now?The first piece of evidence that the warming over the past few decades isn’t part of a natural cycle is how fast the change is happening. The biggest temperature swings our planet has experienced in the past million years are the ice ages. Based on a combination of paleoclimate data and models, scientists estimate that when ice ages have ended in the past, it has taken about 5,000 years for the planet to warm between 4 and 7 degrees Celsius. The warming of the past century of 0.7C is roughly eight times faster than the ice-age-recovery warming on average.” [SOURCE]. We therefore interpret the Arctic warming claim broadly to include both temperature and the rate of warming.
4. This work is a test of the claim of unprecedented warming in the Arctic. Here we use paleo temperature data provided by the NOAA Pages2k database [LINK] (caution: the link automatically initiates the download of a large Excel file). Twenty sources for Arctic air temperature were found in this database and the data from all twenty sources are shown in the charts in Figure 1. Eighteen of these sources provide d180 data. The term d180 is a reference to delta-O-18, a reference to the ratio of oxygen isotopes O(18) to O(16) compared against a standardized ratio. There is a linear relationship between this ratio and temperature and because of that d180 is often used as a proxy for temperature. The magnitudes are different but in a comparative study such as this, the d180 values can be used directly instead of temperature. The other two are lake bed sediment data and are included for completeness but the greater weight will be given to the cleaner d180 air temperature proxies.
5. Each data set is presented graphically in Figure 1 as two side by side frames. The left frame traces the maximum d180 value (in black) in a moving 100-year window as a test of whether the maximum temperature occurs at the end of the series. The right frame traces the d180 OLS trend (in red) in a moving 100-year window as a test of whether the greatest rate of warming occurs at the end of the series. If the highest value in the curve is found at the end of the series, the data are taken to be consistent with the “unprecedented warming” hypothesis when stated in terms of the variable being tested. Otherwise, the data are taken to be inconsistent with the “unprecedented warming” hypothesis (when stated in terms of the variable being tested). The chart titles are color coded. Green indicates that the data are consistent with the hypothesis and red indicates that they are not.
6. These interpretations of the data in displayed in Figure 1 are summarized in the table in Figure 2. The lake sediment are marked in red as they may not be congruent with the surface temperature proxies in the other 18 datasets. The summary statistics at the bottom of the table in Figure 2 are in two parts – the part in black does not include the lake sediment data and the part in red does. Here we find as follows: (a) If we remove the lake sediment data, support for unprecedented high temperature in the Arctic at the end of the datasets is  an impressive 50% but that for highest rate of warming is rather low at 22% if the end of the dataset is strictly defined as the trend in the last of the 100-year moving windows. If this definition is broadened to the “post industrial era” as any date after 1900, then support for the “unprecedented” hypothesis grows to 61%. The last column of Figure 2 shows that support for “unprecedented warming” defined as both highest temperature and highest rate of warming is a low 39% even when including the broad definition of the current era.
7. An issue raised by James Kamis in this regard  [LINK] is that extensive natural geothermal sources of heat in the Arctic Ocean are not included in the analysis. These volcanic and mantle plume sources are shown in Figure 4.
8. We conclude from this analysis that the paleo data presented in Figure 1 (not including the Lake data) do not provide convincing evidence of “unprecedented” warming in the Arctic in the current era either in terms of temperature or in terms of the rate of warming. However, the evidence for unprecedented warming trend is strengthened significantly if the current era is defined broadly to include the period from 1900 to the present.
9. A further conclusion from these data relate to the claim by NASA and by climate science in general (paragraph#3) that the usual argument by skeptics that “the climate has always changed” ignores the speed issue. The response by climate science is that yes, the climate has always changed but what makes the current warming different, and therefore human caused, is the high rate of warming never before seen in natural climate change. The paleo data presented above shows that in 12 out of 20 temperature datasets (including lake sediment data) and in 10 out of 18 temperature datasets with only d180 data, we find evidence that climate has changed faster than it is changing now. These changes occurred within the last 2,000 years in the pre-industrial era.

 

MAP SHOWING SOME OF THE DATA STATIONS

RELATED POST:  Does Global Warming Drive Changes in Arctic Sea Ice?

 

 

ARCTIC WARMING BIBLIOGRAPHY

1. 2002: Polyakov, Igor V., et al. “Observationally based assessment of polar amplification of global warming.” Geophysical research letters 29.18 (2002): 25-1. Arctic variability is dominated by multi‐decadal fluctuations. Incomplete sampling of these fluctuations results in highly variable arctic surface‐air temperature (SAT) trends. Modulated by multi‐decadal variability, SAT trends are often amplified relative to northern‐hemispheric trends, but over the 125‐year record we identify periods when arctic SAT trends were smaller or of opposite sign than northern‐hemispheric trends. Arctic and northern‐hemispheric air‐temperature trends during the 20th century (when multi‐decadal variablity had little net effect on computed trends) are similar, and do not support the predicted polar amplification of global warming. The possible moderating role of sea ice cannot be conclusively identified with existing data. If long‐term trends are accepted as a valid measure of climate change, then the SAT and ice data do not support the proposed polar amplification of global warming. Intrinsic arctic variability obscures long‐term changes, limiting our ability to identify complex feedbacks in the arctic climate system.
2. 2002: Rigor, Ignatius G., John M. Wallace, and Roger L. Colony. “Response of sea ice to the Arctic Oscillation.” Journal of Climate 15.18 (2002): 2648-2663.Data collected by the International Arctic Buoy Programme from 1979 to 1998 are analyzed to obtain statistics of sea level pressure (SLP) and sea ice motion (SIM). The annual and seasonal mean fields agree with those obtained in previous studies of Arctic climatology. The data show a 3-hPa decrease in decadal mean SLP over the central Arctic Ocean between 1979–88 and 1989–98. This decrease in SLP drives a cyclonic trend in SIM, which resembles the structure of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Regression maps of SIM during the wintertime (January–March) AO index show 1) an increase in ice advection away from the coast of the East Siberian and Laptev Seas, which should have the effect of producing more new thin ice in the coastal flaw leads; 2) a decrease in ice advection from the western Arctic into the eastern Arctic; and 3) a slight increase in ice advection out of the Arctic through Fram Strait. Taken together, these changes suggest that at least part of the thinning of sea ice recently observed over the Arctic Ocean can be attributed to the trend in the AO toward the high-index polarity. Rigor et al. showed that year-to-year variations in the wintertime AO imprint a distinctive signature on surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies over the Arctic, which is reflected in the spatial pattern of temperature change from the 1980s to the 1990s. Here it is shown that the memory of the wintertime AO persists through most of the subsequent year: spring and autumn SAT and summertime sea ice concentration are all strongly correlated with the AO index for the previous winter. It is hypothesized that these delayed responses reflect the dynamical influence of the AO on the thickness of the wintertime sea ice, whose persistent “footprint” is reflected in the heat fluxes during the subsequent spring, in the extent of open water during the subsequent summer, and the heat liberated in the freezing of the open water during the subsequent autumn.
3. 2003: Semenov, Vladimir A., and Lennart Bengtsson. “Modes of the wintertime Arctic temperature variability.” Geophysical Research Letters 30.15 (2003).  It is shown that the Arctic averaged wintertime temperature variability during the 20th century can be essentially described by two orthogonal modes. These modes were identified by an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) decomposition of the 1892–1999 surface wintertime air temperature anomalies (40°N–80°N) using a gridded dataset covering high Arctic. The first mode (1st leading EOF) is related to the NAO and has a major contribution to Arctic warming during the last 30 years. The second one (3rd leading EOF) dominates the SAT variability prior to 1970. A correlation between the corresponding principal component PC3 and the Arctic SAT anomalies is 0.79. This mode has the largest amplitudes in the Kara‐Barents Seas and Baffin Bay and exhibits no direct link to the large‐scale atmospheric circulation variability, in contrast to the other leading EOFs. We suggest that the existence of this mode is caused by long‐term sea ice variations presumably due to Atlantic inflow variability.
4. 2003: Polyakov, Igor V., et al. “Variability and trends of air temperature and pressure in the maritime Arctic, 1875–2000.” Journal of Climate 16.12 (2003): 2067-2077. Arctic atmospheric variability during the industrial era (1875–2000) is assessed using spatially averaged surface air temperature (SAT) and sea level pressure (SLP) records. Air temperature and pressure display strong multidecadal variability on timescales of 50–80 yr [termed low-frequency oscillation (LFO)]. Associated with this variability, the Arctic SAT record shows two maxima: in the 1930s–40s and in recent decades, with two colder periods in between. In contrast to the global and hemispheric temperature, the maritime Arctic temperature was higher in the late 1930s through the early 1940s than in the 1990s. Incomplete sampling of large-amplitude multidecadal fluctuations results in oscillatory Arctic SAT trends. For example, the Arctic SAT trend since 1875 is 0.09 ± 0.03°C decade⁻¹, with stronger spring- and wintertime warming; during the twentieth century (when positive and negative phases of the LFO nearly offset each other) the Arctic temperature increase is 0.05 ± 0.04°C decade⁻¹, similar to the Northern Hemispheric trend (0.06°C decade⁻¹). Thus, the large-amplitude multidecadal climate variability impacting the maritime Arctic may confound the detection of the true underlying climate trend over the past century. LFO-modulated trends for short records are not indicative of the long-term behavior of the Arctic climate system. The accelerated warming and a shift of the atmospheric pressure pattern from anticyclonic to cyclonic in recent decades can be attributed to a positive LFO phase. It is speculated that this LFO-driven shift was crucial to the recent reduction in Arctic ice cover. Joint examination of air temperature and pressure records suggests that peaks in temperature associated with the LFO follow pressure minima after 5–15 yr. Elucidating the mechanisms behind this relationship will be critical to understanding the complex nature of low-frequency variability.
5. 2003: Johannessen, Ola M., et al. “Arctic climate change—will the ice disappear this century?.” Elsevier Oceanography Series. Vol. 69. Elsevier, 2003. 490-496. A new set of multi-decadal and century-scale sea-ice data is compared with coupled atmosphere-ocean model simulations in order to understand Arctic sea ice and climate variability. It is evident that the two pronounced 20th-century warming events—both amplified in the Arctic—were linked to sea-ice variability. The area of sea ice is observed to have decreased by 8× 105km² (7.4%) since 1978, with record-low summer ice coverage in 2002. Model predictions are used to quantify changes in the ice cover through the 21st century. A predominantly ice-free Arctic in summer is predicted for the end of this century.
6. 2003: Polyakov, Igor V., et al. “Long-term ice variability in Arctic marginal seas.” Journal of Climate 16.12 (2003): 2078-2085. Examination of records of fast ice thickness (1936–2000) and ice extent (1900–2000) in the Kara, Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi Seas provide evidence that long-term ice thickness and extent trends are small and generally not statistically significant, while trends for shorter records are not indicative of the long-term tendencies due to large-amplitude low-frequency variability. The ice variability in these seas is dominated by a multidecadal, low-frequency oscillation (LFO) and (to a lesser degree) by higher-frequency decadal fluctuations. The LFO signal decays eastward from the Kara Sea where it is strongest. In the Chukchi Sea ice variability is dominated by decadal fluctuations, and there is no evidence of the LFO. This spatial pattern is consistent with the air temperature–North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index correlation pattern, with maximum correlation in the near-Atlantic region, which decays toward the North Pacific. Sensitivity analysis shows that dynamical forcing (wind or surface currents) dominates ice-extent variations in the Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi Seas. Variability of Kara Sea ice extent is governed primarily by thermodynamic factors.
7. 2004: Overland, James E., et al. “Seasonal and regional variation of pan-Arctic surface air temperature over the instrumental record.” Journal of Climate 17.17 (2004): 3263-3282. Instrumental surface air temperature (SAT) records beginning in the late 1800s from 59 Arctic stations north of 64°N show monthly mean anomalies of several degrees and large spatial teleconnectivity, yet there are systematic seasonal and regional differences. Analyses are based on time–longitude plots of SAT anomalies and principal component analysis (PCA). Using monthly station data rather than gridded fields for this analysis highlights the importance of considering record length in calculating reliable Arctic change estimates; for example, the contrast of PCA performed on 11 stations beginning in 1886, 20 stations beginning in 1912, and 45 stations beginning in 1936 is illustrated. While often there is a well-known interdecadal negative covariability in winter between northern Europe and Baffin Bay, long-term changes in the remainder of the Arctic are most evident in spring, with cool temperature anomalies before 1920 and Arctic-wide warm temperatures in the 1990s. Summer anomalies are generally weaker than spring or winter but tend to mirror spring conditions before 1920 and in recent decades. Temperature advection in the trough–ridge structure in the positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) in the North Atlantic establishes wintertime temperature anomalies in adjacent regions, while the zonal/annular nature of the AO in the remainder of the Arctic must break down in spring to promote meridional temperature advection. There were regional/decadal warm events during winter and spring in the 1930s to 1950s, but meteorological analysis suggests that these SAT anomalies are the result of intrinsic variability in regional flow patterns. These midcentury events contrast with the recent Arctic-wide AO influence in the 1990s. The preponderance of evidence supports the conclusion that warm SAT anomalies in spring for the recent decade are unique in the instrumental record, both in having the greatest longitudinal extent and in their associated patterns of warm air advection.
8. 2004: Johannessen, Ola M., et al. “Arctic climate change: observed and modelled temperature and sea-ice variability.” Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography 56.4 (2004): 328-341. Changes apparent in the arctic climate system in recent years require evaluation in a century-scale perspective in order to assess the Arctic’s response to increasing anthropogenic greenhouse-gas forcing. Here, a new set of centuryand multidecadal-scale observational data of surface air temperature (SAT) and sea ice is used in combination with ECHAM4 and HadCM3 coupled atmosphere’ice’ocean global model simulations in order to better determine and understand arctic climate variability. We show that two pronounced twentieth-century warming events, both amplified in the Arctic, were linked to sea-ice variability. SAT observations and model simulations indicate that the nature of the arctic warming in the last two decades is distinct from the early twentieth-century warm period. It is suggested strongly that the earlier warming was natural internal climate-system variability, whereas the recent SAT changes are a response to anthropogenic forcing. The area of arctic sea ice is furthermore observed to have decreased~8 · 10⁵ km² (7.4%) in the past quarter century, with record-low summer ice coverage in September 2002. A set of model predictions is used to quantify changes in the ice cover through the twenty-first century, with greater reductions expected in summer than winter. In summer, a predominantly sea-ice-free Arctic is predicted for the end of this century.
9. 2004: Bengtsson, Lennart, Vladimir A. Semenov, and Ola M. Johannessen. “The early twentieth-century warming in the Arctic—A possible mechanism.” Journal of Climate 17.20 (2004): 4045-4057. The huge warming of the Arctic that started in the early 1920s and lasted for almost two decades is one of the most spectacular climate events of the twentieth century. During the peak period 1930–40, the annually averaged temperature anomaly for the area 60°–90°N amounted to some 1.7°C. Whether this event is an example of an internal climate mode or is externally forced, such as by enhanced solar effects, is presently under debate. This study suggests that natural variability is a likely cause, with reduced sea ice cover being crucial for the warming. A robust sea ice–air temperature relationship was demonstrated by a set of four simulations with the atmospheric ECHAM model forced with observed SST and sea ice concentrations. An analysis of the spatial characteristics of the observed early twentieth-century surface air temperature anomaly revealed that it was associated with similar sea ice variations. Further investigation of the variability of Arctic surface temperature and sea ice cover was performed by analyzing data from a coupled ocean–atmosphere model. By analyzing climate anomalies in the model that are similar to those that occurred in the early twentieth century, it was found that the simulated temperature increase in the Arctic was related to enhanced wind-driven oceanic inflow into the Barents Sea with an associated sea ice retreat. The magnitude of the inflow is linked to the strength of westerlies into the Barents Sea. This study proposes a mechanism sustaining the enhanced westerly winds by a cyclonic atmospheric circulation in the Barents Sea region created by a strong surface heat flux over the ice-free areas. Observational data suggest a similar series of events during the early twentieth-century Arctic warming, including increasing westerly winds between Spitsbergen and Norway, reduced sea ice, and enhanced cyclonic circulation over the Barents Sea. At the same time, the North Atlantic Oscillation was weakening.
10. 2005: Stroeve, J. C., et al. “Tracking the Arctic’s shrinking ice cover: Another extreme September minimum in 2004.” Geophysical Research Letters 32.4 (2005). Satellite passive microwave observations document an overall downward trend in Arctic sea ice extent and area since 1978. While the record minimum observed in September 2002 strongly reinforced this downward trend, extreme ice minima were again observed in 2003 and 2004. Although having three extreme minimum years in a row is unprecedented in the satellite record, attributing these recent trends and extremes to greenhouse gas loading must be tempered by recognition that the sea ice cover is variable from year to year in response to wind, temperature and oceanic forcings.
11. 2014: Woollings, Tim, Ben Harvey, and Giacomo Masato. “Arctic warming, atmospheric blocking and cold European winters in CMIP5 models.” Environmental Research Letters 9.1 (2014): 014002. Amplified Arctic warming is expected to have a significant long-term influence on the midlatitude atmospheric circulation by the latter half of the 21st century. Potential influences of recent and near future Arctic changes on shorter timescales are much less clear, despite having received much recent attention in the literature. In this letter, climate models from the recent CMIP5 experiment are analysed for evidence of an influence of Arctic temperatures on midlatitude blocking and cold European winters in particular. The focus is on the variability of these features in detrended data and, in contrast to other studies, limited evidence of an influence is found. The occurrence of cold European winters is found to be largely independent of the temperature variability in the key Barents–Kara Sea region. Positive correlations of the Barents–Kara temperatures with Eurasian blocking are found in some models, but significant correlations are limited.
12. 2015: Francis, Jennifer, and Natasa Skific. “Evidence linking rapid Arctic warming to mid-latitude weather patterns.” Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 373.2045 (2015): 20140170. The effects of rapid Arctic warming and ice loss on weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere is a topic of active research, lively scientific debate and high societal impact. The emergence of Arctic amplification—the enhanced sensitivity of high-latitude temperature to global warming—in only the last 10–20 years presents a challenge to identifying statistically robust atmospheric responses using observations. Several recent studies have proposed and demonstrated new mechanisms by which the changing Arctic may be affecting weather patterns in mid-latitudes, and these linkages differ fundamentally from tropics/jet-stream interactions through the transfer of wave energy. In this study, new metrics and evidence are presented that suggest disproportionate Arctic warming—and resulting weakening of the poleward temperature gradient—is causing the Northern Hemisphere circulation to assume a more meridional character (i.e. wavier), although not uniformly in space or by season, and that highly amplified jet-stream patterns are occurring more frequently. Further analysis based on self-organizing maps supports this finding. These changes in circulation are expected to lead to persistent weather patterns that are known to cause extreme weather events. As emissions of greenhouse gases continue unabated, therefore, the continued amplification of Arctic warming should favour an increased occurrence of extreme events caused by prolonged weather conditions.
13. 2015: Kug, Jong-Seong, et al. “Two distinct influences of Arctic warming on cold winters over North America and East Asia.” Nature Geoscience 8.10 (2015): 759. Arctic warming has sparked a growing interest because of its possible impacts on mid-latitude climate^1,2,3,4,5. A number of unusually harsh cold winters have occurred in many parts of East Asia and North America in the past few years^2,6,7, and observational and modelling studies have suggested that atmospheric variability linked to Arctic warming might have played a central role^{1,3,4,8,9,10,11}. Here we identify two distinct influences of Arctic warming which may lead to cold winters over East Asia or North America, based on observational analyses and extensive climate model results. We find that severe winters across East Asia are associated with anomalous warmth in the Barents–Kara Sea region, whereas severe winters over North America are related to anomalous warmth in the East Siberian–Chukchi Sea region. Each regional warming over the Arctic Ocean is accompanied by the local development of an anomalous anticyclone and the downstream development of a mid-latitude trough. The resulting northerly flow of cold air provides favourable conditions for severe winters in East Asia or North America. These links between Arctic and mid-latitude weather are also robustly found in idealized climate model experiments and CMIP5 multi-model simulations. We suggest that our results may help improve seasonal prediction of winter weather and extreme events in these regions.
14. 2015: Park, Jong-Yeon, et al. “Amplified Arctic warming by phytoplankton under greenhouse warming.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2015): 201416884. One of the important impacts of marine phytoplankton on climate systems is the geophysical feedback by which chlorophyll and the related pigments in phytoplankton absorb solar radiation and then change sea surface temperature. Yet such biogeophysical impact is still not considered in many climate projections by state-of-the-art climate models, nor is its impact on the future climate quantified. This study shows that, by conducting global warming simulations with and without an active marine ecosystem model, the biogeophysical effect of future phytoplankton changes amplifies Arctic warming by 20%. Given the close linkage between the Arctic and global climate, the biologically enhanced Arctic warming can significantly modify future estimates of global climate change, and therefore it needs to be considered as a possible future scenario.
15. 2015: Francis, Jennifer A., and Stephen J. Vavrus. “Evidence for a wavier jet stream in response to rapid Arctic warming.” Environmental Research Letters 10.1 (2015): 014005. New metrics and evidence are presented that support a linkage between rapid Arctic warming, relative to Northern hemisphere mid-latitudes, and more frequent high-amplitude (wavy) jet-stream configurations that favor persistent weather patterns. We find robust relationships among seasonal and regional patterns of weaker poleward thickness gradients, weaker zonal upper-level winds, and a more meridional flow direction. These results suggest that as the Arctic continues to warm faster than elsewhere in response to rising greenhouse-gas concentrations, the frequency of extreme weather events caused by persistent jet-stream patterns will increase.
16. 2016: Goss, Michael, Steven B. Feldstein, and Sukyoung Lee. “Stationary wave interference and its relation to tropical convection and Arctic warming.” Journal of Climate 29.4 (2016): 1369-1389.The interference between transient eddies and climatological stationary eddies in the Northern Hemisphere is investigated. The amplitude and sign of the interference is represented by the stationary wave index (SWI), which is calculated by projecting the daily 300-hPa streamfunction anomaly field onto the 300-hPa climatological stationary wave. ERA-Interim data for the years 1979 to 2013 are used. The amplitude of the interference peaks during boreal winter. The evolution of outgoing longwave radiation, Arctic temperature, 300-hPa streamfunction, 10-hPa zonal wind, Arctic sea ice concentration, and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index are examined for days of large SWI values during the winter. Constructive interference during winter tends to occur about one week after enhanced warm pool convection and is followed by an increase in Arctic surface air temperature along with a reduction of sea ice in the Barents and Kara Seas. The warming of the Arctic does occur without prior warm pool convection, but it is enhanced and prolonged when constructive interference occurs in concert with enhanced warm pool convection. This is followed two weeks later by a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex and a decline of the AO. All of these associations are reversed in the case of destructive interference. Potential climate change implications are briefly discussed.
17. 2016: Baggett, Cory, Sukyoung Lee, and Steven Feldstein. “An investigation of the presence of atmospheric rivers over the North Pacific during planetary-scale wave life cycles and their role in Arctic warming.” Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences73.11 (2016): 4329-4347. Heretofore, the tropically excited Arctic warming (TEAM) mechanism put forward that localized tropical convection amplifies planetary-scale waves, which transport sensible and latent heat into the Arctic, leading to an enhancement of downward infrared radiation and Arctic surface warming. In this study, an investigation is made into the previously unexplored contribution of the synoptic-scale waves and their attendant atmospheric rivers to the TEAM mechanism. Reanalysis data are used to conduct a suite of observational analyses, trajectory calculations, and idealized model simulations. It is shown that localized tropical convection over the Maritime Continent precedes the peak of the planetary-scale wave life cycle by ~10–14 days. The Rossby wave source induced by the tropical convection excites a Rossby wave train over the North Pacific that amplifies the climatological December–March stationary waves. These amplified planetary-scale waves are baroclinic and transport sensible and latent heat poleward. During the planetary-scale wave life cycle, synoptic-scale waves are diverted northward over the central North Pacific. The warm conveyor belts associated with the synoptic-scale waves channel moisture from the subtropics into atmospheric rivers that ascend as they move poleward and penetrate into the Arctic near the Bering Strait. At this time, the synoptic-scale waves undergo cyclonic Rossby wave breaking, which further amplifies the planetary-scale waves. The planetary-scale wave life cycle ceases as ridging over Alaska retrogrades westward. The ridging blocks additional moisture transport into the Arctic. However, sensible and latent heat amounts remain elevated over the Arctic, which enhances downward infrared radiation and maintains warm surface temperatures.
18. 2016: Woods, Cian, and Rodrigo Caballero. “The role of moist intrusions in winter Arctic warming and sea ice decline.” Journal of Climate 29.12 (2016): 4473-4485. This paper examines the trajectories followed by intense intrusions of moist air into the Arctic polar region during autumn and winter and their impact on local temperature and sea ice concentration. It is found that the vertical structure of the warming associated with moist intrusions is bottom amplified, corresponding to a transition of local conditions from a “cold clear” state with a strong inversion to a “warm opaque” state with a weaker inversion. In the marginal sea ice zone of the Barents Sea, the passage of an intrusion also causes a retreat of the ice margin, which persists for many days after the intrusion has passed. The authors find that there is a positive trend in the number of intrusion events crossing 70°N during December and January that can explain roughly 45% of the surface air temperature and 30% of the sea ice concentration trends observed in the Barents Sea during the past two decades.
19. 2017: Tokinaga, Hiroki, Shang-Ping Xie, and Hitoshi Mukougawa. “Early 20th-century Arctic warming intensified by Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal variability.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114.24 (2017): 6227-6232. Arctic amplification is a robust feature of climate response to global warming, with large impacts on ecosystems and societies. A long-standing mystery is that a pronounced Arctic warming occurred during the early 20th century when the rate of interdecadal change in radiative forcing was much weaker than at present. Here, using observations and model experiments, we show that the combined effect of internally generated Pacific and Atlantic interdecadal variabilities intensified the Arctic land warming in the early 20th century. The synchronized Pacific–Atlantic warming drastically alters planetary-scale atmospheric circulations over the Northern Hemisphere that transport warm air into the Arctic. Our results highlight the importance of regional sea surface temperature changes for Arctic climate and constrain model projections in this important region.
20. 2017: Breider, Thomas J., et al. “Multidecadal trends in aerosol radiative forcing over the Arctic: Contribution of changes in anthropogenic aerosol to Arctic warming since 1980.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 122.6 (2017): 3573-3594. Arctic observations show large decreases in the concentrations of sulfate and black carbon (BC) aerosols since the early 1980s. These near‐term climate‐forcing pollutants perturb the radiative balance of the atmosphere and may have played an important role in recent Arctic warming. We use the GEOS‐Chem global chemical transport model to construct a 3‐D representation of Arctic aerosols that is generally consistent with observations and their trends from 1980 to 2010. Observations at Arctic surface sites show significant decreases in sulfate and BC mass concentrations of 2–3% per year. We find that anthropogenic aerosols yield a negative forcing over the Arctic, with an average 2005–2010 Arctic shortwave radiative forcing (RF) of −0.19 ± 0.05 W m⁻² at the top of atmosphere (TOA). Anthropogenic sulfate in our study yields more strongly negative forcings over the Arctic troposphere in spring (−1.17 ± 0.10 W m⁻²) than previously reported. From 1980 to 2010, TOA negative RF by Arctic aerosol declined, from −0.67 ± 0.06 W m⁻² to −0.19 ± 0.05 W m⁻², yielding a net TOA RF of +0.48 ± 0.06 W m⁻². The net positive RF is due almost entirely to decreases in anthropogenic sulfate loading over the Arctic. We estimate that 1980–2010 trends in aerosol‐radiation interactions over the Arctic and Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes have contributed a net warming at the Arctic surface of +0.27 ± 0.04 K, roughly one quarter of the observed warming. Our study does not consider BC emissions from gas flaring nor the regional climate response to aerosol‐cloud interactions or BC deposition on snow.

 

OTHER POSTS

A Test for ECS Climate Sensitivity in Observational Data

Climate Change and Hurricanes

Total Hurricane Energy & Fossil Fuel Emissions

Correlation Between Cumulative Emissions and Cumulative Sea Level Rise

TCRE: Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Emissions

A CO2 Radiative Forcing Seasonal Cycle?

Climate Change: Theory vs Data

Correlation of CMIP5 Forcings with Temperature

Stratospheric Cooling

The Anomalies in Temperature Anomalies

The Greenhouse Effect of Atmospheric CO2

ECS: Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity

Climate Sensitivity Research: 2014-2018

TCR: Transient Climate Response

Peer Review of Climate Research: A Case Study

Spurious Correlations in Climate Science

Antarctic Sea Ice: 1979-2018

Arctic Sea Ice 1979-2018

Global Warming and Arctic Sea Ice: A Bibliography

Global Warming and Arctic Sea Ice: A Bibliography

Carbon Cycle Measurement Problems Solved with Circular Reasoning

NASA Evidence of Human Caused Climate Change

Event Attribution Science: A Case Study

Event Attribution Case Study Citations

Global Warming Trends in Daily Station Data

History of the Global Warming Scare

The dearth of scientific knowledge only adds to the alarm

Nonlinear Dynamics: Is Climate Chaotic?

The Anthropocene

Eco-Fearology in the Anthropocene

Carl Wunsch Assessment of Climate Science: 2010

Gerald Marsh, A Theory of Ice Ages

History of the Ozone Depletion Scare

Empirical Test of Ozone Depletion

Ozone Depletion Chemistry

Brewer-Dobson Circulation Bibliography

Elevated CO2 and Crop Chemistry

Little Ice Age Climatology: A Bibliography

Sorcery Killings, Witch Hunts, & Climate Action

Climate Impact of the Kuwait Oil Fires: A Bibliography

Noctilucent Clouds: A Bibliography

Climate Change Denial Research: 2001-2018

Climate Change Impacts Research

Tidal Cycles: A Bibliography

 

 

 

FIGURE 1: ANNUAL MEAN CO2 CONCENTRATION: FROM 124,813 OBSERVATIONS

 

 

FIGURE 2: CORRELATION OF CHANGES IN CO2 CONCENTRATION WITH EMISSIONS

 

FIGURE 3: CO2 CONCENTRATION AGAINST DEPTH

 

FULL TEXT OF SOURCE DOCUMENT AT  [ACADEMIA.EDU]  OR  [SSRN.COM]

 

1. It is alleged that “combustion of fossil fuels has enriched levels of CO₂ in the world’s oceans and decreased ocean pH” and that such acidification is causing dangerous detrimental effects on coral, shellfish, and on the oceanic ecosystem in general. These effects of the use of fossil fuels are cited as the rationale for climate action in the form of reducing or eliminating the use of fossil fuels. Citations below.
2. Here we present empirical evidence from 124,813 measurements of ocean CO2 concentration expressed in millimoles per liter (MM/L) provided by the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. The data are presented in Figure 1. They show a rising trend in the CO2 concentration of oceans at depths of 50 to 5000 feet. The temperatures at which these measurements were made vary from 5C to 25C. The CO2 concentrations are therefore adjusted for these temperature differences and the temperature adjusted concentrations are shown in the third panel of Figure 1.
3. If fossil fuel emissions are responsible for these changes, we expect to find a correlation between the rate of emissions and changes in oceanic CO2 at an annual time scale. Figure 2 displays the rate of annual emissions and the corresponding annual changes in oceanic CO2. The correlation corrected for trend effects is shown in the third panel of Figure 2. No evidence is found that changes in oceanic CO2 are related to fossil fuel emissions at an annual time scale.
4. A further test of human cause is presented in Figure 3. If the source of the ocean’s CO2 enrichment is the atmosphere, we should find a concentration gradient with higher concentrations closer to the surface. No such gradient is found.
5. We conclude that no evidence is found in these data that the observed increase in the inorganic CO2 concentration of the oceans is related to fossil fuel emissions.
6. The full text of this study may be downloaded from  [ACADEMIA.EDU]  or [SSRN.COM]

 

 

OCEAN ACIDIFICATION BIBLIOGRAPHY

1. 2005: Orr, James C., et al. “Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its impact on calcifying organisms.” Nature 437.7059 (2005): 681. Today’s surface ocean is saturated with respect to calcium carbonate, but increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are reducing ocean pH and carbonate ion concentrations, and thus the level of calcium carbonate saturation. Experimental evidence suggests that if these trends continue, key marine organisms—such as corals and some plankton—will have difficulty maintaining their external calcium carbonate skeletons. Here we use 13 models of the ocean–carbon cycle to assess calcium carbonate saturation under the IS92a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario for future emissions of anthropogenic carbon dioxide. In our projections, Southern Ocean surface waters will begin to become undersaturated with respect to aragonite, a metastable form of calcium carbonate, by the year 2050. By 2100, this undersaturation could extend throughout the entire Southern Ocean and into the subarctic Pacific Ocean. When live pteropods were exposed to our predicted level of undersaturation during a two-day shipboard experiment, their aragonite shells showed notable dissolution. Our findings indicate that conditions detrimental to high-latitude ecosystems could develop within decades, not centuries as suggested previously.
2. 2007: Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove, et al. “Coral reefs under rapid climate change and ocean acidification.” science 318.5857 (2007): 1737-1742. Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is expected to exceed 500 parts per million and global temperatures to rise by at least 2°C by 2050 to 2100, values that significantly exceed those of at least the past 420,000 years during which most extant marine organisms evolved. Under conditions expected in the 21st century, global warming and ocean acidification will compromise carbonate accretion, with corals becoming increasingly rare on reef systems. The result will be less diverse reef communities and carbonate reef structures that fail to be maintained. Climate change also exacerbates local stresses from declining water quality and overexploitation of key species, driving reefs increasingly toward the tipping point for functional collapse. This review presents future scenarios for coral reefs that predict increasingly serious consequences for reef-associated fisheries, tourism, coastal protection, and people. As the International Year of the Reef 2008 begins, scaled-up management intervention and decisive action on global emissions are required if the loss of coral-dominated ecosystems is to be avoided.
3. 2008: Anthony, Kenneth RN, et al. “Ocean acidification causes bleaching and productivity loss in coral reef builders.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2008). Ocean acidification represents a key threat to coral reefs by reducing the calcification rate of framework builders. In addition, acidification is likely to affect the relationship between corals and their symbiotic dinoflagellates and the productivity of this association. However, little is known about how acidification impacts on the physiology of reef builders and how acidification interacts with warming. Here, we report on an 8-week study that compared bleaching, productivity, and calcification responses of crustose coralline algae (CCA) and branching (Acropora) and massive (Porites) coral species in response to acidification and warming. Using a 30-tank experimental system, we manipulated CO₂ levels to simulate doubling and three- to fourfold increases [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projection categories IV and VI] relative to present-day levels under cool and warm scenarios. Results indicated that high CO₂ is a bleaching agent for corals and CCA under high irradiance, acting synergistically with warming to lower thermal bleaching thresholds. We propose that CO₂ induces bleaching via its impact on photoprotective mechanisms of the photosystems. Overall, acidification impacted more strongly on bleaching and productivity than on calcification. Interestingly, the intermediate, warm CO₂ scenario led to a 30% increase in productivity in Acropora, whereas high CO₂ lead to zero productivity in both corals. CCA were most sensitive to acidification, with high CO₂ leading to negative productivity and high rates of net dissolution. Our findings suggest that sensitive reef-building species such as CCA may be pushed beyond their thresholds for growth and survival within the next few decades whereas corals will show delayed and mixed responses.
4. 2008: Fabry, Victoria J., et al. “Impacts of ocean acidification on marine fauna and ecosystem processes.” ICES Journal of Marine Science 65.3 (2008): 414-432. Oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO₂) is altering the seawater chemistry of the world’s oceans with consequences for marine biota. Elevated partial pressure of CO₂ (pCO₂) is causing the calcium carbonate saturation horizon to shoal in many regions, particularly in high latitudes and regions that intersect with pronounced hypoxic zones. The ability of marine animals, most importantly pteropod molluscs, foraminifera, and some benthic invertebrates, to produce calcareous skeletal structures is directly affected by seawater CO₂ chemistry. CO₂influences the physiology of marine organisms as well through acid-base imbalance and reduced oxygen transport capacity. The few studies at relevant pCO₂ levels impede our ability to predict future impacts on foodweb dynamics and other ecosystem processes. Here we present new observations, review available data, and identify priorities for future research, based on regions, ecosystems, taxa, and physiological processes believed to be most vulnerable to ocean acidification. We conclude that ocean acidification and the synergistic impacts of other anthropogenic stressors provide great potential for widespread changes to marine ecosystems.
5. 2009: Miller, A. Whitman, et al. “Shellfish face uncertain future in high CO2 world: influence of acidification on oyster larvae calcification and growth in estuaries.” Plos one 4.5 (2009): e5661. Human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide by 36% during the past 200 years. One third of all anthropogenic CO₂ has been absorbed by the oceans, reducing pH by about 0.1 of a unit and significantly altering their carbonate chemistry. There is widespread concern that these changes are altering marine habitats severely, but little or no attention has been given to the biota of estuarine and coastal settings, ecosystems that are less pH buffered because of naturally reduced alkalinity.
6. 2009: Doney, Scott C., et al. “Ocean acidification: the other CO2 problem.” Annual Review of Marine Science (2009). Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂), primarily from human fossil fuel combustion, reduces ocean pH and causes wholesale shifts in seawater carbonate chemistry. The process of ocean acidification is well documented in field data, and the rate will accelerate over this century unless future CO₂ emissions are curbed dramatically. Acidification alters seawater chemical speciation and biogeochemical cycles of many elements and compounds. One well-known effect is the lowering of calcium carbonate saturation states, which impacts shell-forming marine organisms from plankton to benthic molluscs, echinoderms, and corals. Many calcifying species exhibit reduced calcification and growth rates in laboratory experiments under high-CO₂ conditions. Ocean acidification also causes an increase in carbon fixation rates in some photosynthetic organisms (both calcifying and noncalcifying). The potential for marine organisms to adapt to increasing CO₂ and broader implications for ocean ecosystems are not well known; both are high priorities for future research. Although ocean pH has varied in the geological past, paleo-events may be only imperfect analogs to current conditions.
7. 2010: Talmage, Stephanie C., and Christopher J. Gobler. “Effects of past, present, and future ocean carbon dioxide concentrations on the growth and survival of larval shellfish.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 107.40 (2010): 17246-17251. The combustion of fossil fuels has enriched levels of CO₂ in the world’s oceans and decreased ocean pH. Although the continuation of these processes may alter the growth, survival, and diversity of marine organisms that synthesize CaCO₃ shells, the effects of ocean acidification since the dawn of the industrial revolution are not clear. Here we present experiments that examined the effects of the ocean’s past, present, and future (21st and 22nd centuries) CO₂ concentrations on the growth, survival, and condition of larvae of two species of commercially and ecologically valuable bivalve shellfish (Mercenaria mercenaria and Argopecten irradians). Larvae grown under near preindustrial CO₂ concentrations (250 ppm) displayed significantly faster growth and metamorphosis as well as higher survival and lipid accumulation rates compared with individuals reared under modern day CO₂ levels. Bivalves grown under near preindustrial CO₂ levels displayed thicker, more robust shells than individuals grown at present CO₂ concentrations, whereas bivalves exposed to CO₂ levels expected later this century had shells that were malformed and eroded. These results suggest that the ocean acidification that has occurred during the past two centuries may be inhibiting the development and survival of larval shellfish and contributing to global declines of some bivalve populations.
8. 2010: Kroeker, Kristy J., et al. “Meta‐analysis reveals negative yet variable effects of ocean acidification on marine organisms.” Ecology letters 13.11 (2010): 1419-1434. Ocean acidification is a pervasive stressor that could affect many marine organisms and cause profound ecological shifts. A variety of biological responses to ocean acidification have been measured across a range of taxa, but this information exists as case studies and has not been synthesized into meaningful comparisons amongst response variables and functional groups. We used meta‐analytic techniques to explore the biological responses to ocean acidification, and found negative effects on survival, calcification, growth and reproduction. However, there was significant variation in the sensitivity of marine organisms. Calcifying organisms generally exhibited larger negative responses than non‐calcifying organisms across numerous response variables, with the exception of crustaceans, which calcify but were not negatively affected. Calcification responses varied significantly amongst organisms using different mineral forms of calcium carbonate. Organisms using one of the more soluble forms of calcium carbonate (high‐magnesium calcite) can be more resilient to ocean acidification than less soluble forms (calcite and aragonite). Additionally, there was variation in the sensitivities of different developmental stages, but this variation was dependent on the taxonomic group. Our analyses suggest that the biological effects of ocean acidification are generally large and negative, but the variation in sensitivity amongst organisms has important implications for ecosystem responses.
9. 2012: Narita, Daiju, Katrin Rehdanz, and Richard SJ Tol. “Economic costs of ocean acidification: a look into the impacts on global shellfish production.” Climatic Change 113.3-4 (2012): 1049-1063. Ocean acidification is increasingly recognized as a major global problem. Yet economic assessments of its effects are currently almost absent. Unlike most other marine organisms, mollusks, which have significant commercial value worldwide, have relatively solid scientific evidence of biological impact of acidification and allow us to make such an economic evaluation. By performing a partial-equilibrium analysis, we estimate global and regional economic costs of production loss of mollusks due to ocean acidification. Our results show that the costs for the world as a whole could be over 100 billion USD with an assumption of increasing demand of mollusks with expected income growths combined with a business-as-usual emission trend towards the year 2100. The major determinants of cost levels are the impacts on the Chinese production, which is dominant in the world, and the expected demand increase of mollusks in today’s developing countries, which include China, in accordance with their future income rise. Our results have direct implications for climate policy. Because the ocean acidifies faster than the atmosphere warms, the acidification effects on mollusks would raise the social cost of carbon more strongly than the estimated damage adds to the damage costs of climate change.
10. 2013: Andersson, Andreas J., and Dwight Gledhill. “Ocean acidification and coral reefs: effects on breakdown, dissolution, and net ecosystem calcification.” Annual Review of Marine Science 5 (2013): 321-348. The persistence of carbonate structures on coral reefs is essential in providing habitats for a large number of species and maintaining the extraordinary biodiversity associated with these ecosystems. As a consequence of ocean acidification (OA), the ability of marine calcifiers to produce calcium carbonate (CaCO₃) and their rate of CaCO₃production could decrease while rates of bioerosion and CaCO₃ dissolution could increase, resulting in a transition from a condition of net accretion to one of net erosion. This would have negative consequences for the role and function of coral reefs and the eco-services they provide to dependent human communities. In this article, we review estimates of bioerosion, CaCO₃ dissolution, and net ecosystem calcification (NEC) and how these processes will change in response to OA. Furthermore, we critically evaluate the observed relationships between NEC and seawater aragonite saturation state (Ω_a). Finally, we propose that standardized NEC rates combined with observed changes in the ratios of dissolved inorganic carbon to total alkalinity owing to net reef metabolism may provide a biogeochemical tool to monitor the effects of OA in coral reef environments.

 

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FIGURE 1: COMPARISON OF OLS TREND WITH MEAN 15YR TREND

 

FIGURE 2: DATA AND GAUSSIAN SIMULATION COMPARED

 

 

FIGURE 3: HURST EXPONENTS OF DATA AND GAUSSIAN SIMULATION COMPARED

 

IS THERE HURST PERSISTENCE IN UAH ZONAL MEAN TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES?

REFERENCE PAPER FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD:  [SSRN.COM]  [ACADEMIA.EDU]

 

1. It was shown in a prior work (see links above) that when the UAH lower troposphere temperatures Dec 1978 to Dec 2017 are studied on a monthly time scale (as a sequence of 481 months), evidence of Hurst persistence is found in the data. Here we present a further investigation into these data using an annual time scale and studying each calendar month separately for the seven calendar months January to July in study period 1979 to 2018. As of this writing data for the full time span are available for only these seven months.
2. Almost universally, the study of temperature trends are presented in terms of OLS (ordinary least squares) linear regression. The procedure contains some unforgiving assumptions that may not apply in time series field data such as the temperature data in climate studies but the use of OLS has gained such widespread acceptance that the limitations of the procedure imposed by assumptions are generally overlooked. The important assumption relevant here is the so called “iid” constraint. The procedure assumes that all occurrences of the time series are taken from an identical Gaussian distribution that differ only in magnitude and that each occurrence is independent of prior occurrences. Violations of these assumptions in time series of field data are common.
3. A serious violation is that of persistence first discovered in the Nile River flow data by Edwin Hurst who was designing the Aswan Dam in Egypt (pictured above). He found that changes in the flow rate were not random but contained a persistence so that an increase was more likely to be followed by an increase than a decrease and a decrease was more likely to be followed by a decrease than an increase. This kind of behavior violates “iid” Gaussian randomness and invalidates OLS regression because OLS assumes Gaussian randomness. In 1950, Hurst published his first and only journal publication [Hurst, E. (1951). Long-term storage capacity of reservoirs. Trans. Amer. Soc. Civil Eng. , 116 (1951): 770-808]. In it he detailed a procedure by which such persistence in time series can be detected by tracking how distant (the range) the cumulative deviations from the mean can be measured as number of standard deviations. He proposed the ratio H = ln(range)/ln(sample size) as a measure of persistence where H = Hurst exponent. In a pure Gaussian iid series H=0.5 and in the case of persistence, H>0.5. As a practical matter, because the empirical setup can also affect the value of H (Granero, S. (2008). Some comments on Hurst exponent and the long memory processes on capital markets. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its applications , 387.22 (2008): 5543-5551), the best way to test for persistence is to compare the H-value of the test series with that of its Gaussian twin. If the test series H-value is statistically significantly greater than the H-value of its Gaussian twin, there is evidence of persistence, and otherwise not.
4. This comparison is made in Figure 3 for all ten unique zonal regions for which satellite temperature anomaly data are published by the UAH. For each zonal region, we compute the value of H in the data and again in a Gaussian simulation of the data. The Gaussian simulation retains the standard deviation and OLS trend value and generates the actual values in a Monte Carlo simulation (labeled as SIMUL). Figure 3 shows that no significant difference is found between data and the iid Gaussian simulation. We conclude from this comparison that the Gaussian iid assumption is not violated in the UAH temperature data at an annual time scale.
5. This conclusion finds further support in Figure 1 where the OLS trend (the yellow line) is compared with the average of trends computed in a moving 15-year window that moves one year at a time from an end-year of 1993 to an end-year of 2018. If OLS assumptions are violated we should find significant differences between these two measures of overall trend. But no difference is evident in the graphic display. We therefore find no evidence of persistence or that the UAH data violate OLS assumptions.
6. Additional support for this conclusion is found in Figure 2. Here the data (blue dots) and the corresponding Gaussian simulation (red dots) are compared directly in search for a visual incongruence that might identify non-Gaussian behavior. No such incongruence is found.
7. We conclude that the evidence of Hurst persistence at a monthly time scale reported in previous works (  [SSRN.COM]  [ACADEMIA.EDU]) does not apply to the annual time scale when the calendar months are studied in isolation, one at a time.

 

1956: Hurst, Harold Edwin. “Methods of using long-term storage in reservoirs.” Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers5.5 (1956): 519-543.

[FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD]

 

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FIGURE 1: OBSERVED ECS VALUES FOR EACH CALENDAR MONTH

 

FIGURE 2: CORRELATION BETWEEN TEMPERATURE AND LN(CO2)

 

FIGURE 3: DETRENDED CORRELATION BETWEEN TEMPERATURE AND LN(CO2)

 

1. Two reconstructions of monthly mean global temperature (HadCRUT4 and GISTEMP) and two direct measurements of monthly mean global temperatures (UAH and RSS) are compared with a theoretical prediction of monthly mean global temperatures according to the GHG forcing theory of surface temperature which holds that surface temperature is responsive to atmospheric CO2 according to the ECS climate sensitivity function.
2. The testable implication of the GHG theory is that surface temperature should be responsive to atmospheric CO2 concentration such that a detrended correlation should exist between the logarithm of atmospheric CO2 and surface temperature.
3. This test is carried out for the five temperature series described above for each of seven calendar months (January to July) for the sample period 1979-2018. The sample period and months selected are constrained by data availability as of this writing.
4. The required detrended correlation is found in the theoretical RCP8.5 series driven by CMIP5 forcings; but it is not found in any of the four observational data series tested. In other words, GHG forcing of surface temperature, though found in climate models (by design) are not found in the data. Thus no evidence is found to support the existence of GHG forcing or of an ECS climate sensitivity parameter that determines surface temperature according to atmospheric CO2 concentration.
5. A further finding of this work is that temperature reconstructions (HAD & GIS) are closer to the theoretical RCP8.5 series than direct observations (UAH & RSS), a pattern that may imply that the assumption of GHG forcing may play a role in the way temperature reconstructions are constructed. This pattern is also seen in a graphical comparison of the five data series in related blog post [Climate change Theory vs Data]  .
6. The full text of this work is available for download from [SSRN.COM]  or from  [ACADEMIA.EDU] .
7. The assistance and encouragement provided by Mr. Ashley Francis of Salisbury, England in carrying out this work is gratefully acknowledged.

 

 

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FIGURE 1: ECS CLIMATE SENSITIVITY IN A 100-YEAR MOVING WINDOW

 

FIGURE 2: ECS STATISTICS JANUARY-JUNE

 

FIGURE 3: ECS STATISTICS: JULY-DECEMBER

 

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1. Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) is the responsiveness of global mean surface temperature to the logarithm of atmospheric CO2 concentration stated as the increase in temperature for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration. The measure at once verifies and quantifies the core principle of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) – the so called “greenhouse effect” of atmospheric CO2.
2. However, this logical and empirical support for AGW is known to suffer from an uncertainty issue described in a related post. In brief, ECS research with models and with observational data and also with models constrained by observational data, a large range of values for the ECS has been reported from ECS<1 up to ECS>10. The IPCC describes the value of ECS as a mean(ECS)=3 and its 90%CI = [1.5, 4.5] Celsius degrees for each doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration based on the Jule Charney’s presentation of model results in 1979. The IPCC does not take note of earlier findings by Syukuro Manabe in 1967 that the the sensitivity value should be ECS=2 (See bibliography below).
3. Yet, the legitimization of certain values of the ECS by selective citation is somewhat arbitrary and prone to bias because a large range of values significantly different from each other can thus be legitimized. In a prior work, it was shown that the ECS values seen in a moving 60-year window in the HadCRUT4 temperature data show negative ECS to values greater than ECS=6C/doubling. The full text of the source document for this work may be downloaded from [SSRN.COM]  or  [ACADEMIA.EDU] . In such a state of empirical confusion, it is possible to claim evidential support for a selected value from a large range of values by judicial choice of the time span and the corresponding citation as described by Wigley (1985).
4. A similar analysis is presented in this work. Here, a range of spans is tested on the series of 168 years of monthly mean global temperature reconstructions in the HadCRUT4 data set provided by the Hadley Climate Research Unit. They are the full span (168 years), the half span (84 years), and one third of the span (56 years). In addition, spans of 100 and 110 years are tested. A relationship between the time span of the data and the observational ECS estimate is thus derived to determine the appropriate span for the test in view of the latency of the oceans in reaching climate equilibrium as described in (Danabasoglu 2009) below in the bibliography section.
5. Here it is found by trial and error that in the HadCRUT4 temperature anomaly series, that a time span of at least 100 years is required to stabilize the empirical ECS estimate from observational data. It is shown that 100, 110, and 168-year time spans yield stable ECS values and that time spans of 90 years or less generate unstable and possibly unreliable ECS estimates in the early portion of the full span but not so in more recent data. This difference between early and recent data is difficult to interpret.
6. Figure 1 displays the empirical ECS estimates in a moving 100-year window as the end of the moving window moves one year at a time from 1949 to 2017. The GIF animation presents these results one calendar month at a time. The blue line contains all 68 ECS values observed and the red line shows their mean. The observed values lie in a wide range of ECS<1 to ECS>3. However, their means are in the tighter range of ECS = [1.8, 2.4].
7. These averages are summarized in the chart below the GIF animation. In comparison with the very unstable behavior in 60-year and 84-year spans reported in the earlier work posted on  [SSRN.COM] , the stability of ECS estimates from the HadCRUT4 temperature anomalies is improved when a 100-year moving window is used. Figure 1 also highlights the great differences among the calendar months in terms of ECS estimates. This information is lost when data for calendar months are combined into annual means.
8. A further investigation of the effect of the time span on the stability of empirical ECS estimates is carried out and the results are summarized in Figure 2 &Figure 3. Time spans of 168 years (the full span), 56 years (one third of the full span), 84 years (one half of the full span), 90 years, 100 years, and 110 years are tried. The ECS estimates are tested for statistical significance. Statistically significant results are shown in black and values that failed the significance test are shown in red. The analysis is carried out for each of the twelve calendar months separately. The results for January to June appear in Figure 2 and those for July to December are in Figure 3.
9. Figure 2 & Figure 3: The results show that statistically significant and stable values of ECS are found for long time spans of 100 years or more at any location within the full span of the data. No improvement in stability is found for time spans longer than 100 years. The stability and reliability of ECS values for time spans of 90 years or less depend on location. Early time spans that end in 1905, 1933, and 1939 are found to be unstable and without a statistically significant value for ECS in the three short time spans tested (56 years, 84 years, and 90 years). These same time spans that end later than 1939 are stable and with statistically significant ECS values. However, an anomalous result of statistically significant ECS>6 is found for 56-year time spans ending in 1961. The location sensitivity of ECS in this temperature time series may imply inconsistencies in the data.
10. It is noted that in most cases, the empirical estimate for the value of the ECS in Figures 2&3 is remarkably stable at or around ECS=2C per doubling of atmospheric CO2. The value of ECS=2 is consistent with the theoretical prediction of Syukuro Manabe in his earliest published works. These citations are included in the bibliography section below.

 

ECS Bibliography

1. 1963: Möller, Fritz. “On the influence of changes in the CO2 concentration in air on the radiation balance of the earth’s surface and on the climate.” Journal of Geophysical Research68.13 (1963): 3877-3886. The numerical value of a temperature change under the influence of a CO₂ change as calculated by Plass is valid only for a dry atmosphere. Overlapping of the absorption bands of CO₂ and H₂O in the range around 15 μ essentially diminishes the temperature changes. New calculations give ΔT = + 1.5° when the CO₂ content increases from 300 to 600 ppm. Cloudiness diminishes the radiation effects but not the temperature changes because under cloudy skies larger temperature changes are needed in order to compensate for an equal change in the downward long‐wave radiation. The increase in the water vapor content of the atmosphere with rising temperature causes a self‐amplification effect which results in almost arbitrary temperature changes, e.g. for constant relative humidity ΔT = +10° in the above mentioned case. It is shown, however, that the changed radiation conditions are not necessarily compensated for by a temperature change. The effect of an increase in CO₂ from 300 to 330 ppm can be compensated for completely by a change in the water vapor content of 3 per cent or by a change in the cloudiness of 1 per cent of its value without the occurrence of temperature changes at all. Thus the theory that climatic variations are effected by variations in the CO₂ content becomes very questionable.
2. 1964: Manabe, Syukuro, and Robert F. Strickler. “Thermal equilibrium of the atmosphere with a convective adjustment.” Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 21.4 (1964): 361-385. The states of thermal equilibrium (incorporating an adjustment of super-adiabatic stratification) as well as that of pure radiative equilibrium of the atmosphere are computed as the asymptotic steady state approached in an initial value problem. Recent measurements of absorptivities obtained for a wide range of pressure are used, and the scheme of computation is sufficiently general to include the effect of several layers of clouds. The atmosphere in thermal equilibrium has an isothermal lower stratosphere and an inversion in the upper stratosphere which are features observed in middle latitudes. The role of various gaseous absorbers (i.e., water vapor, carbon dioxide, and ozone), as well as the role of the clouds, is investigated by computing thermal equilibrium with and without one or two of these elements. The existence of ozone has very little effect on the equilibrium temperature of the earth’s surface but a very important effect on the temperature throughout the stratosphere; the absorption of solar radiation by ozone in the upper and middle stratosphere, in addition to maintaining the warm temperature in that region, appears also to be necessary for the maintenance of the isothermal layer or slight inversion just above the tropopause. The thermal equilibrium state in the absence of solar insulation is computed by setting the temperature of the earth’s surface at the observed polar value. In this case, the stratospheric temperature decreases monotonically with increasing altitude, whereas the corresponding state of pure radiative equilibrium has an inversion just above the level of the tropopause. A series of thermal equilibriums is computed for the distributions of absorbers typical of different latitudes. According to these results, the latitudinal variation of the distributions of ozone and water vapor may be partly responsible for the latitudinal variation of the thickness of the isothermal part of the stratosphere. Finally, the state of local radiative equilibrium of the stratosphere overlying a troposphere with the observed distribution of temperature is computed for each season and latitude. In the upper stratosphere of the winter hemisphere, a large latitudinal temperature gradient appears at the latitude of the polar-night jet stream, while in the upper statosphere of the summer hemisphere, the equilibrium temperature varies little with latitude. These features are consistent with the observed atmosphere. However, the computations predict an extremely cold polar night temperature in the upper stratosphere and a latitudinal decrease (toward the cold pole) of equilibrium temperature in the middle or lower stratosphere for winter and fall. This disagrees with observation, and suggests that explicit introduction of the dynamics of large scale motion is necessary.
3. 1967: Manabe, Syukuro, and Richard T. Wetherald. “Thermal equilibrium of the atmosphere with a given distribution of relative humidity.” Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 24.3 (1967): 241-259. [ECS=2]
4. 1969: Budyko, Mikhail I. “The effect of solar radiation variations on the climate of the earth.” tellus 21.5 (1969): 611-619. It follows from the analysis of observation data that the secular variation of the mean temperature of the Earth can be explained by the variation of short-wave radiation, arriving at the surface of the Earth. In connection with this, the influence of long-term changes of radiation, caused by variations of atmospheric transparency on the thermal regime is being studied. Taking into account the influence of changes of planetary albedo of the Earth under the development of glaciations on the thermal regime, it is found that comparatively small variations of atmospheric transparency could be sufficient for the development of quaternary glaciations.
5. 1969: Sellers, William D. “A global climatic model based on the energy balance of the earth-atmosphere system.” Journal of Applied Meteorology 8.3 (1969): 392-400. A relatively simple numerical model of the energy balance of the earth-atmosphere is set up and applied. The dependent variable is the average annual sea level temperature in 10° latitude belts. This is expressed basically as a function of the solar constant, the planetary albedo, the transparency of the atmosphere to infrared radiation, and the turbulent exchange coefficients for the atmosphere and the oceans. The major conclusions of the analysis are that removing the arctic ice cap would increase annual average polar temperatures by no more than 7C, that a decrease of the solar constant by 2–5% might be sufficient to initiate another ice age, and that man’s increasing industrial activities may eventually lead to a global climate much warmer than today.
6. 1971: Rasool, S. Ichtiaque, and Stephen H. Schneider. “Atmospheric carbon dioxide and aerosols: Effects of large increases on global climate.” Science 173.3992 (1971): 138-141. Effects on the global temperature of large increases in carbon dioxide and aerosol densities in the atmosphere of Earth have been computed. It is found that, although the addition of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere does increase the surface temperature, the rate of temperature increase diminishes with increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. For aerosols, however, the net effect of increase in density is to reduce the surface temperature of Earth. Because of the exponential dependence of the backscattering, the rate of temperature decrease is augmented with increasing aerosol content. An increase by only a factor of 4 in global aerosol background concentration may be sufficient to reduce the surface temperature by as much as 3.5 ° K. If sustained over a period of several years, such a temperature decrease over the whole globe is believed to be sufficient to trigger an ice age.
7. 1975: Manabe, Syukuro, and Richard T. Wetherald. “The effects of doubling the CO2 concentration on the climate of a general circulation model.” Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 32.1 (1975): 3-15. An attempt is made to estimate the temperature changes resulting from doubling the present CO2 concentration by the use of a simplified three-dimensional general circulation model. This model contains the following simplifications: a limited computational domain, an idealized topography, no beat transport by ocean currents, and fixed cloudiness. Despite these limitations, the results from this computation yield some indication of how the increase of CO2 concentration may affect the distribution of temperature in the atmosphere. It is shown that the CO2 increase raises the temperature of the model troposphere, whereas it lowers that of the model stratosphere. The tropospheric warming is somewhat larger than that expected from a radiative-convective equilibrium model. In particular, the increase of surface temperature in higher latitudes is magnified due to the recession of the snow boundary and the thermal stability of the lower troposphere which limits convective beating to the lowest layer. It is also shown that the doubling of carbon dioxide significantly increases the intensity of the hydrologic cycle of the model. 
8. 1976: Cess, Robert D. “Climate change: An appraisal of atmospheric feedback mechanisms employing zonal climatology.” Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 33.10 (1976): 1831-1843. The sensitivity of the earth’s surface temperature to factors which can induce long-term climate change, such as a variation in solar constant, is estimated by employing two readily observable climate changes. One is the latitudinal change in annual mean climate, for which an interpretation of climatological data suggests that cloud amount is not a significant climate feedback mechanism, irrespective of how cloud amount might depend upon surface temperature, since there are compensating changes in both the solar and infrared optical properties of the atmosphere. It is further indicated that all other atmospheric feedback mechanisms, resulting, for example, from temperature-induced changes in water vapor amount, cloud altitude and lapse rate, collectively double the sensitivity of global surface temperature to a change in solar constant. The same conclusion is reached by considering a second type of climate change, that associated with seasonal variations for a given latitude zone. The seasonal interpretation further suggests that cloud amount feedback is unimportant zonally as well as globally. Application of the seasonal data required a correction for what appears to be an important seasonal feedback mechanism. This is attributed to a variability in cloud albedo due to seasonal changes in solar zenith angle. No attempt was made to individually interpret the collective feedback mechanisms which contribute to the doubling in surface temperature sensitivity. It is suggested, however, that the conventional assumption of fixed relative humidity for describing feedback due to water vapor amount might not be as applicable as is generally believed. Climate models which additionally include ice-albedo feedback are discussed within the framework of the present results.
9. 1978: Ramanathan, V., and J. A. Coakley. “Climate modeling through radiative‐convective models.” Reviews of geophysics16.4 (1978): 465-489. We present a review of the radiative‐convective models that have been used in studies pertaining to the earth’s climate. After familiarizing the reader with the theoretical background, modeling methodology, and techniques for solving the radiative transfer equation the review focuses on the published model studies concerning global climate and global climate change. Radiative‐convective models compute the globally and seasonally averaged surface and atmospheric temperatures. The computed temperatures are in good agreement with the observed temperatures. The models include the important climatic feedback mechanism between surface temperature and H₂O amount in the atmosphere. The principal weakness of the current models is their inability to simulate the feedback mechanism between surface temperature and cloud cover. It is shown that the value of the critical lapse rate adopted in radiative‐convective models for convective adjustment is significantly larger than the observed globally averaged tropospheric lapse rate. The review also summarizes radiative‐convective model results for the sensitivity of surface temperature to perturbations in (1) the concentrations of the major and minor optically active trace constituents, (2) aerosols, and (3) cloud amount. A simple analytical model is presented to demonstrate how the surface temperature in a radiative‐convective model responds to perturbations.
10. 1985: Wigley, Thomas ML, and Michael E. Schlesinger. “Analytical solution for the effect of increasing CO2 on global mean temperature.” Nature 315.6021 (1985): 649. Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is expected to cause substantial changes in climate. Recent model studies suggest that the equilibrium warming for a CO2 doubling (Δ T2×) is about 3–4°C. Observational data show that the globe has warmed by about 0.5°C over the past 100 years. Are these two results compatible? To answer this question due account must be taken of oceanic thermal inertia effects, which can significantly slow the response of the climate system to external forcing. The main controlling parameters are the effective diffusivity of the ocean below the upper mixed layer (κ) and the climate sensitivity (defined by Δ T2×). Previous analyses of this problem have considered only limited ranges of these parameters. Here we present a more general analysis of two cases, forcing by a step function change in CO2 concentration and by a steady CO2 increase. The former case may be characterized by a response time which we show is strongly dependent on both κ and Δ T2×. In the latter case the damped response means that, at any given time, the climate system may be quite far removed from its equilibrium with the prevailing CO2 level. In earlier work this equilibrium has been expressed as a lag time, but we show this to be misleading because of the sensitivity of the lag to the history of past CO2 variations. Since both the lag and the degree of disequilibrium are strongly dependent on κ and Δ T2×, and because of uncertainties in the pre-industrial CO2 level, the observed global warming over the past 100 years can be shown to be compatible with a wide range of CO2-doubling temperature changes.
11. 1991: Lawlor, D. W., and R. A. C. Mitchell. “The effects of increasing CO2 on crop photosynthesis and productivity: a review of field studies.” Plant, Cell & Environment 14.8 (1991): 807-818. Only a small proportion of elevated CO₂ studies on crops have taken place in the field. They generally confirm results obtained in controlled environments: CO₂increases photosynthesis, dry matter production and yield, substantially in C₃ species, but less in C₄, it decreases stomatal conductance and transpiration in C₃ and C₄ species and greatly improves water‐use efficiency in all plants. The increased productivity of crops with CO₂ enrichment is also related to the greater leaf area produced. Stimulation of yield is due more to an increase in the number of yield‐forming structures than in their size. There is little evidence of a consistent effect of CO₂ on partitioning of dry matter between organs or on their chemical composition, except for tubers. Work has concentrated on a few crops (largely soybean) and more is needed on crops for which there are few data (e.g. rice). Field studies on the effects of elevated CO₂ in combination with temperature, water and nutrition are essential; they should be related to the development and improvement of mechanistic crop models, and designed to test their predictions.
12. 2009: Danabasoglu, Gokhan, and Peter R. Gent. “Equilibrium climate sensitivity: Is it accurate to use a slab ocean model?.” Journal of Climate 22.9 (2009): 2494-2499. The equilibrium climate sensitivity of a climate model is usually defined as the globally averaged equilibrium surface temperature response to a doubling of carbon dioxide. This is virtually always estimated in a version with a slab model for the upper ocean. The question is whether this estimate is accurate for the full climate model version, which includes a full-depth ocean component. This question has been answered for the low-resolution version of the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3). The answer is that the equilibrium climate sensitivity using the full-depth ocean model is 0.14°C higher than that using the slab ocean model, which is a small increase. In addition, these sensitivity estimates have a standard deviation of nearly 0.1°C because of interannual variability. These results indicate that the standard practice of using a slab ocean model does give a good estimate of the equilibrium climate sensitivity of the full CCSM3. Another question addressed is whether the effective climate sensitivity is an accurate estimate of the equilibrium climate sensitivity. Again the answer is yes, provided that at least 150 yr of data from the doubled carbon dioxide run are used.
13. 2010: Connell, Sean D., and Bayden D. Russell. “The direct effects of increasing CO2 and temperature on non-calcifying organisms: increasing the potential for phase shifts in kelp forests.” Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B: Biological Sciences (2010): rspb20092069. Predictions about the ecological consequences of oceanic uptake of CO₂ have been preoccupied with the effects of ocean acidification on calcifying organisms, particularly those critical to the formation of habitats (e.g. coral reefs) or their maintenance (e.g. grazing echinoderms). This focus overlooks the direct effects of CO₂ on non-calcareous taxa, particularly those that play critical roles in ecosystem shifts. We used two experiments to investigate whether increased CO₂ could exacerbate kelp loss by facilitating non-calcareous algae that, we hypothesized, (i) inhibit the recovery of kelp forests on an urbanized coast, and (ii) form more extensive covers and greater biomass under moderate future CO₂ and associated temperature increases. Our experimental removal of turfs from a phase-shifted system (i.e. kelp- to turf-dominated) revealed that the number of kelp recruits increased, thereby indicating that turfs can inhibit kelp recruitment. Future CO₂ and temperature interacted synergistically to have a positive effect on the abundance of algal turfs, whereby they had twice the biomass and occupied over four times more available space than under current conditions. We suggest that the current preoccupation with the negative effects of ocean acidification on marine calcifiers overlooks potentially profound effects of increasing CO₂and temperature on non-calcifying organisms.
14. 2011: Schmittner, Andreas, et al. “Climate sensitivity estimated from temperature reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum.” Science 334.6061 (2011): 1385-1388. Assessing the impact of future anthropogenic carbon emissions is currently impeded by uncertainties in our knowledge of equilibrium climate sensitivity to atmospheric carbon dioxide doubling. Previous studies suggest 3 kelvin (K) as the best estimate, 2 to 4.5 K as the 66% probability range, and nonzero probabilities for much higher values, the latter implying a small chance of high-impact climate changes that would be difficult to avoid. Here, combining extensive sea and land surface temperature reconstructions from the Last Glacial Maximum with climate model simulations, we estimate a lower median (2.3 K) and reduced uncertainty (1.7 to 2.6 K as the 66% probability range, which can be widened using alternate assumptions or data subsets). Assuming that paleoclimatic constraints apply to the future, as predicted by our model, these results imply a lower probability of imminent extreme climatic change than previously thought.
15. 2012: Fasullo, John T., and Kevin E. Trenberth. “A less cloudy future: The role of subtropical subsidence in climate sensitivity.” science 338.6108 (2012): 792-794. An observable constraint on climate sensitivity, based on variations in mid-tropospheric relative humidity (RH) and their impact on clouds, is proposed. We show that the tropics and subtropics are linked by teleconnections that induce seasonal RH variations that relate strongly to albedo (via clouds), and that this covariability is mimicked in a warming climate. A present-day analog for future trends is thus identified whereby the intensity of subtropical dry zones in models associated with the boreal monsoon is strongly linked to projected cloud trends, reflected solar radiation, and model sensitivity. Many models, particularly those with low climate sensitivity, fail to adequately resolve these teleconnections and hence are identifiably biased. Improving model fidelity in matching observed variations provides a viable path forward for better predicting future climate.
16. 2012: Andrews, Timothy, et al. “Forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in CMIP5 coupled atmosphere‐ocean climate models.” Geophysical Research Letters 39.9 (2012). We quantify forcing and feedbacks across available CMIP5 coupled atmosphere‐ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) by analysing simulations forced by an abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. This is the first application of the linear forcing‐feedback regression analysis of Gregory et al. (2004) to an ensemble of AOGCMs. The range of equilibrium climate sensitivity is 2.1–4.7 K. Differences in cloud feedbacks continue to be important contributors to this range. Some models show small deviations from a linear dependence of top‐of‐atmosphere radiative fluxes on global surface temperature change. We show that this phenomenon largely arises from shortwave cloud radiative effects over the ocean and is consistent with independent estimates of forcing using fixed sea‐surface temperature methods. We suggest that future research should focus more on understanding transient climate change, including any time‐scale dependence of the forcing and/or feedback, rather than on the equilibrium response to large instantaneous forcing.
17. 2012: Bitz, Cecilia M., et al. “Climate sensitivity of the community climate system model, version 4.” Journal of Climate 25.9 (2012): 3053-3070.Equilibrium climate sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) is 3.20°C for 1° horizontal resolution in each component. This is about a half degree Celsius higher than in the previous version (CCSM3). The transient climate sensitivity of CCSM4 at 1° resolution is 1.72°C, which is about 0.2°C higher than in CCSM3. These higher climate sensitivities in CCSM4 cannot be explained by the change to a preindustrial baseline climate. This study uses the radiative kernel technique to show that, from CCSM3 to CCSM4, the global mean lapse-rate feedback declines in magnitude and the shortwave cloud feedback increases. These two warming effects are partially canceled by cooling because of slight decreases in the global mean water vapor feedback and longwave cloud feedback from CCSM3 to CCSM4. A new formulation of the mixed layer, slab-ocean model in CCSM4 attempts to reproduce the SST and sea ice climatology from an integration with a full-depth ocean, and it is integrated with a dynamic sea ice model. These new features allow an isolation of the influence of ocean dynamical changes on the climate response when comparing integrations with the slab ocean and full-depth ocean. The transient climate response of the full-depth ocean version is 0.54 of the equilibrium climate sensitivity when estimated with the new slab-ocean model version for both CCSM3 and CCSM4. The authors argue the ratio is the same in both versions because they have about the same zonal mean pattern of change in ocean surface heat flux, which broadly resembles the zonal mean pattern of net feedback strength.
18. 2012: Rogelj, Joeri, Malte Meinshausen, and Reto Knutti. “Global warming under old and new scenarios using IPCC climate sensitivity range estimates.” Nature climate change 2.4 (2012): 248. Climate projections for the fourth assessment report¹ (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were based on scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios² (SRES) and simulations of the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project³ (CMIP3). Since then, a new set of four scenarios (the representative concentration pathways or RCPs) was designed⁴. Climate projections in the IPCC fifth assessment report (AR5) will be based on the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project⁵ (CMIP5), which incorporates the latest versions of climate models and focuses on RCPs. This implies that by AR5 both models and scenarios will have changed, making a comparison with earlier literature challenging. To facilitate this comparison, we provide probabilistic climate projections of both SRES scenarios and RCPs in a single consistent framework. These estimates are based on a model set-up that probabilistically takes into account the overall consensus understanding of climate sensitivity uncertainty, synthesizes the understanding of climate system and carbon-cycle behaviour, and is at the same time constrained by the observed historical warming.
19. 2014: Sherwood, Steven C., Sandrine Bony, and Jean-Louis Dufresne. “Spread in model climate sensitivity traced to atmospheric convective mixing.” Nature 505.7481 (2014): 37. Equilibrium climate sensitivity refers to the ultimate change in global mean temperature in response to a change in external forcing. Despite decades of research attempting to narrow uncertainties, equilibrium climate sensitivity estimates from climate models still span roughly 1.5 to 5 degrees Celsius for a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, precluding accurate projections of future climate. The spread arises largely from differences in the feedback from low clouds, for reasons not yet understood. Here we show that differences in the simulated strength of convective mixing between the lower and middle tropical troposphere explain about half of the variance in climate sensitivity estimated by 43 climate models. The apparent mechanism is that such mixing dehydrates the low-cloud layer at a rate that increases as the climate warms, and this rate of increase depends on the initial mixing strength, linking the mixing to cloud feedback. The mixing inferred from observations appears to be sufficiently strong to imply a climate sensitivity of more than 3 degrees for a doubling of carbon dioxide. This is significantly higher than the currently accepted lower bound of 1.5 degrees, thereby constraining model projections towards relatively severe future warming.
20. 2015: Mauritsen, Thorsten, and Bjorn Stevens. “Missing iris effect as a possible cause of muted hydrological change and high climate sensitivity in models.” Nature Geoscience 8.5 (2015): 346. Equilibrium climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO₂ falls between 2.0 and 4.6 K in current climate models, and they suggest a weak increase in global mean precipitation. Inferences from the observational record, however, place climate sensitivity near the lower end of this range and indicate that models underestimate some of the changes in the hydrological cycle. These discrepancies raise the possibility that important feedbacks are missing from the models. A controversial hypothesis suggests that the dry and clear regions of the tropical atmosphere expand in a warming climate and thereby allow more infrared radiation to escape to space. This so-called iris effect could constitute a negative feedback that is not included in climate models. We find that inclusion of such an effect in a climate model moves the simulated responses of both temperature and the hydrological cycle to rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations closer to observations. Alternative suggestions for shortcomings of models — such as aerosol cooling, volcanic eruptions or insufficient ocean heat uptake — may explain a slow observed transient warming relative to models, but not the observed enhancement of the hydrological cycle. We propose that, if precipitating convective clouds are more likely to cluster into larger clouds as temperatures rise, this process could constitute a plausible physical mechanism for an iris effect.
21. 2015: Schimel, David, Britton B. Stephens, and Joshua B. Fisher. “Effect of increasing CO2 on the terrestrial carbon cycle.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112.2 (2015): 436-441. Feedbacks from terrestrial ecosystems to atmospheric CO₂ concentrations contribute the second-largest uncertainty to projections of future climate. These feedbacks, acting over huge regions and long periods of time, are extraordinarily difficult to observe and quantify directly. We evaluated in situ, atmospheric, and simulation estimates of the effect of CO₂ on carbon storage, subject to mass balance constraints. Multiple lines of evidence suggest significant tropical uptake for CO₂, approximately balancing net deforestation and confirming a substantial negative global feedback to atmospheric CO₂ and climate. This reconciles two approaches that have previously produced contradictory results. We provide a consistent explanation of the impacts of CO₂ on terrestrial carbon across the 12 orders of magnitude between plant stomata and the global carbon cycle.
22. 2016: Tan, Ivy, Trude Storelvmo, and Mark D. Zelinka. “Observational constraints on mixed-phase clouds imply higher climate sensitivity.” Science 352.6282 (2016): 224-227. How much global average temperature eventually will rise depends on the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS), which relates atmospheric CO₂ concentration to atmospheric temperature. For decades, ECS has been estimated to be between 2.0° and 4.6°C, with much of that uncertainty owing to the difficulty of establishing the effects of clouds on Earth’s energy budget. Tan et al. used satellite observations to constrain the radiative impact of mixed phase clouds. They conclude that ECS could be between 5.0° and 5.3°C—higher than suggested by most global climate models.
23. 2018: Watanabe, Masahiro, et al. “Low clouds link equilibrium climate sensitivity to hydrological sensitivity.” Nature Climate Change (2018): 1. Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and hydrological sensitivity describe the global mean surface temperature and precipitation responses to a doubling of atmospheric CO₂. Despite their connection via the Earth’s energy budget, the physical linkage between these two metrics remains controversial. Here, using a global climate model with a perturbed mean hydrological cycle, we show that ECS and hydrological sensitivity per unit warming are anti-correlated owing to the low-cloud response to surface warming. When the amount of low clouds decreases, ECS is enhanced through reductions in the reflection of shortwave radiation. In contrast, hydrological sensitivity is suppressed through weakening of atmospheric longwave cooling, necessitating weakened condensational heating by precipitation. These compensating cloud effects are also robustly found in a multi-model ensemble, and further constrained using satellite observations. Our estimates, combined with an existing constraint to clear-sky shortwave absorption, suggest that hydrological sensitivity could be lower by 30% than raw estimates from global climate models.

 

 

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REFERENCE POST: [Climate Change and Hurricanes]

 

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