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PART-1: WHAT THE UK ENVIRONMENT AGENCY SAYS


Hundreds of people could die in floods in the UK. The country is not ready for the impact of climate change. Earlier this year in Germany, dozens of people died in floods and (“therefore”) that will happen in the UK. sooner or later unless the UK becomes resilient. The bottom line for the UK in the climate change issue is this: adapt or die. Global warming effects such as higher sea levels and more extremes of rainfall and drought requires the country’s readiness to cope with climate change impacts. The UK Environment department will take measures to protct the UK from climate change impacts. We are currently heading for an increase in the global average temperature of just under 3C by the end of the century but even a smaller rise of 2C would have severe consequences: Winter rainfall up by 6% by the 2050s and 8% by the 2080s, Summer rainfall down by about 15% by the 2050s, London’s sea level up by 23cm by the 2050s and 45cm by the 2080s, peak river flows up 27% and summer flows down by 82% that will increase demand for water supply by 3.4 billion litres per day. To successfully tackle the climate emergency the UK must implement effective adaptation measures. To avoid Germany’s flood catastrophe, the UK must build flood defences. The UK must adapt to increasing weather extremes. As for COP26, Governments around the world must promise more ambitious cuts in warming gases if we are to prevent global temperature rise. The summit in Glasgow is where this change could happen. The question is whether promises made by the big polluters like the USA and China will be kept. Climate change will change our lives and impact our jobs, how we heat our homes, what we eat and how we travel. In addition, the UK needs to restore natural systems that absorb carbon dioxide and hold back rainwater. If the UK gets it right their citizens will be safer and more prosperous. The UK must invest in flood protection and coastal defences like the Thames Barrier to avoid the flood tragedy of 1953. COP26: The COP26 climate summit is important. Questions with no answers: What will climate change look like for you?, Will the UK meet it’s climate targets?, How extreme weather is linked to climate change? The UK needs better technology for warning communities about food risk and with better coordination among emergncy services. Billions of pounds have been spent on flood defences – and that more is earmarked. As the host of COP26, the UK is highlighting the importance of helping communities and nature to adapt to climate change. £5.2bn has been budgeted to protect 336,000 propertis from flooding and £640m has been budgeted to tackle climate change and adaptation together. The UK is taking robust action to increase resilience to climate change as a climate change adaptation policy and using the COP26 presidency to promote climate adaptation strategies around the world.

Priority Themes for Climate Change Adaptation

PART-2: CRITICAL COMMENTARY

THE ISSUE AND SUBJECT MATTER OF COPS IN GENERAL AND COP26 IN PARTICULAR IS STRICTLY CLIMATE ACTION. TO FORMULATE AND TO IMPLEMENT A CLIMATE ACTION PLAN ON A GLOBAL SCALE IN THE IMAGE OF THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL – THE SO CALLED “MONTREAL PROTOCOL FOR THE CLIMATE. (MPFC).

BUT WHAT WE SEE IN UK CLIMATE HEROISM AS HOST OF COP26 AND ON THE EVE OF COP26 IS THAT THE UK IS FOCUSSED ENTIRELY ON ADAPTATION. IT SHOULD BE MENTIONED THAT CLIMATE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES ARE NECESSARY ONLY IF AND WHEN CLIMATE ACTION HAS BEEN ABANDONED.

PERHAPS THE UK IS WISER THAN THE REST SUCH THAT IN THE CONTEXT OF THE LOGIC THAT THE REASON WE NEED THE GLASGOW COP26 IN THE YEAR 2021 IS THAT THE 25 PREVIOUS COPS HELD SINCE 1995 HAVE ALL FAILED. EVEN THE SO CALLED “PARIS AGREEMENT” THAT HAD BEEN PRESENTED TO US AS A SUCCESS IS NOW REVEALED TO BE A FAILURE SIMPLY BECAUSE THE NEED FOR COP26 REVEALS THE UGLY TRUTH THAT ALL THE PREVIOUS COPS HAVE FAILED. AND INDEED THEY HAVE.

AND THE UK KNOWS THAT WELL. AND THEY HAVE CHOSEN THE RATIONAL OPTION AS IN “SINCE WE KNOW THAT COP CLIMATE ACTIONS DON’T WORK AND SINCE WE WANT TO PROTECT OUR CITIZENS, OUR CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGY HAS TO BE ONE OF ADAPTATION.

BRAVO!!!!

ESSENTIALLY, ENGLAND HAS GIVEN THE FINGER TO THE UN AND ITS COPS.

OTHER GLORIOUS MOMENTS IN ENGLAND’S HISTORY

SIR TIMOTHY JOHN BERNERS-LEE

RELATED POST ON COPS: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/08/21/cop26-glasgow-2021/

COP26 at the SEC in Glasgow — BIG HIT

POSTSCRIPT:

MEANWHILE IN SWEDEN,

Greta Thunberg wants climate action success at COP26. She wants world leaders to honestly admit that their action is not living up to their words.

COPs secure pledges from member countries

but COPs have no way of enforcing those pledges

so what do the pledges mean?

A crude translation of Greta’s observation about the COP program of the United Nations {in the blogger’s crude language} is that it is a fucking joke.

The decision by the UK to give up on COPs and focus on adaptation is consistent with this assessment of the COP program for global climate action and with the long history of 25 COPs consisting of 25 faiures and zero successes.

For reasons unknown and unfathomable, this charade continues with great aplomb and fanfare.

RELATED POST ON COPS: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/08/21/cop26-glasgow-2021/

LINK TO THE GRETA ARTICLE: https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/climate-change/greta-seeks-honesty-from-world-leaders-at-cop-26-79666

Greta Thunberg interview

RELATED POSTS:

LINK#1: THE GEOLOGY OF HAWAII: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/04/08/hawaiianhotspot/

LINK#2: GEOLOGICAL CARBON FLOWS#3: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/04/25/geological-carbon-flows-part-3/

LINK#3: GEOLOGICAL CARBON FLOWS#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/01/20/offshore-hydrocarbon-seeps/

LINK#4: GEOLOGIC AL CARBON FLOWS#1 https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/08/27/carbonflows/https://www.youtube.com/embed/hmMlspNoZMs?version=3&rel=1&showsearch=0&showinfo=1&iv_load_policy=1&fs=1&hl=en&autohide=2&wmode=transparent

THE CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUE:

THIS POST IS A PRESENTATION OF SOURCES OF CARBON TRANSFERS FROM THE MANTLE TO THE SURFACE BY WAY OF SEEPAGE, HYDROTHERMAL VENTS, HYDROTHERMAL PLUMES, SUBMARINE VOLCANISM, AND ASSOCATED GEOLOGICAL ACTIVITY. THE CONTEXT OF THIS STUDY IS THE THEORY OF ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING (AGW) WHERE FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS ARE ASSUMED TO BE THE SOLE SOURCE OF CARBON EXTERNAL TO THE CARBON CYCLE. A further argument in climate science for human cause is that the source of the carbon causing atmospheric CO2 to rise has to be fossil fuels because this carbon is devoid  of the 14C and 13C isotopes. It is noted that this argument does not exclude geological carbon because that carbon is also devoid of 13C and 14C isotopes. It is not possible to distinguish fossil fuel carbon from geological carbon. It is proposed therefore that natural flows of CO2 to the atmosphere that may have been missed or underestimated in climate science must be reconsidered, specifically the known carbon flows from the mantle to the atmosphere.

LINK: https://www.wired.com/story/a-huge-subterranean-tree-is-moving-magma-to-earths-surface/

PART-1: WHAT THE SOURCE DOCUMENT SAYS

A Huge Subterranean ‘Tree’ Is Moving Magma to Earth’s Surface
Deep in the mantle, a branching plume of intensely hot material appears to be the engine powering vast volcanic activity
.

Reunion, A French island in the western Indian Ocean, is like a marshmallow hovering above the business end of a blowtorch. It sits above one of Earth’s mantle plumes—a tower of superheated rock that ascends from the deep mantle and flambées the bases of tectonic plates, the jigsaw pieces that make up the ever-changing face of the world. The plume’s effects are hard to miss: One of the island’s two massive volcanoes, the aptly named Piton de la Fournaise, or “Peak of the Furnace,” is one of the most hyperactive volcanoes on the planet. But the plume’s modern-day punch is nothing compared to its past. Original story reprinted with permission from Quanta Magazine, an editorially independent publication of the Simons Foundation whose mission is to enhance public understanding of science by covering research develop­ments and trends in mathe­matics and the physical and life sciences. Around 65 million years ago, when the plume was under what is now India, a series of lava floods named the Deccan Traps smothered 1.5 million square kilometers of land—enough to bury Texas, California, and Montana—in a mere 700,000 years, a geologic heartbeat. A giant asteroid strike would be the coup de grâce for the dinosaurs, but the Deccan Traps have long muddled the picture of the climatic conditions the dinosaurs had to contend with. In 2012, a team of geophysicists and seismologists set out to map the plume, deploying a giant network of seismometers across the vast depths of the Indian Ocean seafloor. Nearly a decade later, the team has revealed that the mantle is stranger than expected. The team reported in June in Nature Geoscience that the plume isn’t a simple column. Instead, a titanic mantle plume “tree” rises from the fringes of the planet’s molten heart, with superheated branchlike structures appearing to grow diagonally out of it. As these branches approach the crust, they seem to sprout smaller, vertically rising branches—super hot plumes that underlie known volcanic hot spots at the surface. The discovery of this massive structure beneath Réunion nearly coincides with another recent discovery, reported in November, that found additional structures in the plumes under Africa. Taken together, the two findings represent a significant scientific advance: They suggest that plumes can be more idiosyncratic, and can have more elaborate backstories, than traditional models presumed. The Réunion tree’s root, which researchers already knew about from prior work, is likely a primordial object, perhaps almost as old as Earth itself. So it is possible this torrid tree has been growing its canopy of plumes for billions of years. Presuming that more branches continue to grow, scientists now have a window into Earth’s fiery future. “From looking at the core-mantle boundary, you can maybe predict where the oceans will open,” said study coauthor Karin Sigloch. Researchers can also forecast the land that will one day be obliterated. If the new models are accurate, a few tens of millions of years from now, you may not want to be in South Africa—or, perhaps, on planet Earth at all. Fountains of Fire: Back in the 1960s, when the theory of plate tectonics was rapidly gaining acceptance, certain geological features seemed to evade explanation. While the theory provided explanations for questions that had long puzzled scientists—where volcanoes appear, where land is born, where ocean basins are carved out, where ancient crust was annihilated—it couldn’t explain something like Hawai‘i. Plate tectonics predicts that the boundaries of tectonic plates—where two plates collide, slide over or under one another, grind side by side, or move apart—are where most of the planet’s geologic fireworks can be found. The so-called Ring of Fire, the horseshoe-shaped region that marks the fringes of the many plates surrounding the Pacific plate, is home to 75 percent of the world’s active volcanoes. The Hawai‘i–Emperor seamount chain is a series of mostly underwater volcanoes, many dormant, that stretch more than 6,000 kilometers across the Pacific Ocean.PHOTOGRAPH: NATIONAL GEOPHYSICAL DATA CENTER/USGS But despite being nowhere near a plate boundary, Hawai‘i is an archipelago of giant volcanoes. The active submarine volcano Lō‘ihi, off the southeastern shore of the island of Hawai‘i, is the youngest member of a warped chain of volcanoes 6,000 kilometers long, one that can be traced all the way to long-expired underwater volcanoes in the northwest Pacific. This phenomenon, known as intraplate volcanism, stood out as a geologic aberration. In 1963, the Canadian geophysicist John Tuzo Wilson suggested that volcanic chains like this are forged when a tectonic plate continuously drifts over a stationary hot spot in the mantle—the scorching rock that makes up 84 percent of Earth’s volume. This creates a sequence of volcanoes that erupt, grow, then die out as the plate migrates away from the magmatic fuel source. In 1971, the American geophysicist William Jason Morgan proposed that these hot spots were caused by plumes of particularly hot material rising from the lower mantle. Over the following decades, geophysicists concluded that plumes are around 200 degrees Celsius hotter than the ambient mantle. When plumes reach the base of tectonic plates, their heat melts their surroundings, making plenty of magma. The plumes also carry mantle material up from Earth’s depths. This material melts at the lower pressures found away from the core, feeding additional magma into the crust. The combined supply of hot magma neatly explains a great number of Earth’s intraplate volcanoes.

Chains of volcanoes, also known as hot spot tracks, are difficult to explain without invoking plumes. Hawai‘i is an oceanic example, but they can be found on land, too: The Yellowstone supervolcano is the youngest member of a hot spot track dating back at least 17 million years, one that poured 210,000 cubic kilometers of lava across the Pacific Northwest before blasting out a trail of giant volcanic cauldrons from Oregon to Wyoming—the undeniable scar tissue of an unrelenting mantle plume. Heat from a mantle plume powers thermal features such as this one in Yellowstone National Park. Chemical evidence also implies the existence of mantle plumes. There are two stable types of helium: helium-3 and helium-4. Helium-3 was trapped deep within Earth during its formation and is decidedly ancient. Several hot spot volcanoes, including Hawai‘i’s Kīlauea, erupt lavas with an abundance of the stuff. That, said Godfrey Fitton, a petrologist at the University of Edinburgh, suggests that these volcanoes are mining mantle matter from considerable depth—and a plume is a reasonable explanation. No eyes have ever directly seen a plume; they are inferred to exist. But researchers have gathered considerable evidence in their favor. Seismic waves have provided revelatory validation. They emanate from earthquakes that dive through Earth’s viscera before curving back toward the surface. As these waves travel, the geologic bodies they pass through alter their speed and trajectory. Seismometers pick up this information, and scientists use the data to try and work out what is hiding within that great abyss. Seismic waves move more slowly through hot rock, and study after study has shown that they often slow down through elongate structures that rise from the deep mantle and connect with volcanic hot spots at the surface. Seismologists have also discovered two giant blobs of material—one beneath Africa, the other below the Pacific—that sit astride the boundary between the mantle and the core. Deep-diving waves decelerate as they move through both giant blobs, suggesting that they are hot colossi, together covering about 30 percent of the entire core-mantle boundary. The duo have all manner of possible origin stories, ranging from a graveyard of defunct tectonic plate slabs to the dissected corpse of Theia, the protoplanet that collided with the infant Earth and manufactured the moon. With some exceptions—Yellowstone among them—Earth’s plumes seem rooted to one of those two giant blobs, said Saskia Goes, a geophysicist at Imperial College London. This suggests they play a role in most plumes’ origin stories. The Pu‘u‘ō‘ō eruption on Hawai‘i’s Kīlauea Volcano lasted 35 years. But seismology is not omniscient. Seismic waves can detect structures within the mantle, but they cannot reveal every characteristic of those structures. “You can slow down a seismic wave by heating a material up,” said Harriet Lau, a geophysicist at the University of California, Berkeley. But a change in the rock’s mineral makeup can achieve the same effect. Scientists are forced to choose which option is more likely in each measurement they do. Seismology may be a hard science, but there is an art to it. Subcrustal structures are also equipped with camouflage. Seismic waves like to take the fast lane: They preferentially channel into colder, rigid rock. Plumes, being hot, are repulsive to seismic waves. Plumes are also thin, allowing most incoming seismic waves to dodge them with ease. The more seismic waves you have crossing through the same point in the plume, the more confident you can be that it exists. But “earthquakes don’t happen everywhere,” said Catherine Rychert, a geophysicist at the University of Southampton. And seismic stations are mostly on land, not on the seafloor, which means oceans have poor seismic coverage. “Theoretically, we know [plumes] have to exist,” said Lau. “But they’re just so hard to see seismically.” Consequently, seismic waves capture only slices of plumes, and their properties are often the subject of unresolvable debate. Ideally, scientists want to produce a plume image that stretches from its base to the planet’s surface. That would require a cornucopia of seismometers spread over a vast area, forming a huge aperture that could eat up as many seismic waves as possible and thereby see a sizable segment of the mantle—a seismic equivalent of a giant telescope. So, in 2012, scientists built one. The Tree and the Truth: That year, two vessels zigzagged across the western Indian Ocean, occasionally stopping to make a submarine seismometer walk the plank and sink to the seafloor. In total, 57 were thrown overboard, ultimately creating a 2,000-by-2,000-kilometer aperture. This vast array was augmented by 37 seismic stations positioned on Madagascar and various smaller islands. For 13 months between 2012 and 2013, that aperture was open. Its objective: to hunt down the Réunion plume, one of the most consequential fountains of fire to grace the planet in the past 100 million years. But as the team looked at the entire region, the data began to reveal a spectacular sight. The African giant blob, 2,900 kilometers below the surface, grows up from its middle to form a “trunk,” reaching a depth of 1,500 kilometers. The top of the trunk, dubbed the cusp, appears to grow thick branches of hot matter from its western and eastern extremities. These grow diagonally upward until they reach a depth of 1,000 to 800 kilometers; at this point, the tops of these branches sprout vertically rising thin branches. One of these thin branches reaches the underside of hyper-volcanic Réunion. Around 3,000 kilometers northwest, another diagonal branch stretches to East Africa, a region awash with volcanism and which prior seismic work has found to be home to one or perhaps two mantle plumes. But there was a problem: This structure was difficult to reconcile with the laws of thermodynamics. Plumes, being so hot and buoyant, rise quickly—at 10 times the speed of other mantle migrations, including the movement of plates. “The plumes are so quick. You don’t have time to tilt them” as they ascend, said Goes. Tsekhmistrenko, Sigloch, and company agree: Plumes rise straight up. The tree structure, then, is evidence for a more complex process going on in the mantle. Here’s how they think it works: The African blob—including the trunk and cusp—gets heated by the core. The eastern and western peripheries of the hot cusp, surrounded by a large proportion of relatively cooler ambient mantle material, are considerably buoyant. Eventually, an 800-kilometer blob pinches off from each end; both rise vertically for tens of millions of years. Eventually, they reach the shallow boundary between the dense lower mantle and the less dense upper mantle. There, they spread out laterally. Several tails sprout off the top of them and rise vertically, forming those narrow towers classically referred to as plumes. Maria Tsekhmistrenko and others wearing construction clothes Maria Tsekhmistrenko (right) and other technicians during the month-long cruise to deploy 57 seismometers on the Indian Ocean seafloor in October 2012. Meanwhile, as one of these two sub-blobs rises toward East Africa and one rises toward Réunion, the eastern and western extremities of the cusp—now closer to its middle—produce two new blobs, which also rise straight up. Since they leave later and are positioned to the lower right and lower left of the East African and Réunion blobs respectively, they resemble diagonal, interconnected branches. In reality, they are separate blobs, all rising vertically. Independent scientists have largely applauded the research. Classically, the problem with imaging plume structures in high resolution is a lack of seismic data. Not so this time, said Rychert, “because they had this amazing experiment in the Indian Ocean,” one that gorged itself on a smorgasbord of seismic waves. Combining the data from the giant array with additional seismic data sets proved instrumental, as it allowed the team to precisely resolve an entire swath of the mantle, from its greatest depths to its highest reaches. “In terms of the seismology, it is a step forward,” said Carolina Lithgow-Bertelloni, a geophysicist at the University of California, Los Angeles. “In that sense, I think it’s great.” The tree structure is “an intriguing observation,” said Fitton, and the team’s model of how it branches up from the core is “quite a clever idea.” But he cautions that their precise model for what’s going on in the mantle is just one of several possible interpretations of what is happening. “I think that’s a really cool idea,” said Rychert. “I don’t know if it’s the right idea, but it’s cool.” “Seismic tomography is a snapshot of today,” said Lithgow-Bertelloni. Taking snapshots of present-day structures and speculating on how they formed over millions of years, and how they will continue to evolve, is rife with uncertainty, she cautions.

The Cataclysms to Come
If the team’s theoretical model is correct, it bolsters two long-held trains of thought. The first, said Goes, is that Earth’s plumes are “not as simple as just making an upwelling in a box of syrup in a laboratory.” Nature is complex, and in oft-surprising ways. The second is that these giant blobs have played, and will continue to play, a pivotal role in the planet’s tumultuous history. Some scientists suspect that plumes from the African giant blob spent at least 120 million years tearing the ancient supercontinent of Gondwana into shards. As the plumes rose into its base, they heated it and weakened it; like moles making hills, they caused the land atop these plumes to dome upward, then slide downhill. Australia was unzipped from India and Antarctica, Madagascar from Africa, and the Seychelles microcontinent from India—an act of destruction that made the Indian Ocean. Should the plume or plumes beneath East Africa sustain their onslaught, they will contribute to the future disintegration of the African continent: specifically, the breakup of East Africa and the creation of a new microcontinent floating beside the world’s youngest ocean.

But that future tectonic divorce seems insignificant when you consider the catastrophe that may befall the continent’s southern tip. The team estimates that, in tens of millions of years, a blob of nightmarishly gargantuan proportions will pinch off from the central cusp and rise to meet what is now South Africa’s foundations. This, said Sigloch, would produce cataclysmic eruptions. The Deccan Traps were caused by what we would think of as a solitary mantle plume. This future mega-blob, though, would be capable of producing volcanism so prolific and extensive that the Deccan Traps would be a firecracker in comparison. Envisioning future volcanic apocalypses may be disquieting. But that is precisely why painting precise pictures of plumes matters: They are arbiters of life and death. And yet, for all the chaos they cause, they are a key part of the unceasing cycle of plate tectonics, one that erratically buries and erupts carbon and water and has, miraculously, resulted in a habitable planet with a breathable atmosphere and expansive oceans—a paradise made by abyssal behemoths. “Knowing how a planet manages to do this for billions of years to basically allow human existence is important,” said Rychert. It will be some time yet before the mantle’s monsters are thoroughly understood. Until that day arrives, scientists will keep sketching out the shape-shifting mantle, all the while listening to the many beasts stirring far below their feet. Original story reprinted with permission from Quanta Magazine, an editorially independent publication of the Simons Foundation whose mission is to enhance public understanding of science by covering research developments and trends in mathematics and the physical and life sciences.

map diagram

RELATED POSTS:

LINK#1: THE GEOLOGY OF HAWAII: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/04/08/hawaiianhotspot/

LINK#2: GEOLOGICAL CARBON FLOWS#3: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/04/25/geological-carbon-flows-part-3/

LINK#3: GEOLOGICAL CARBON FLOWS#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/01/20/offshore-hydrocarbon-seeps/

LINK#4: GEOLOGIC AL CARBON FLOWS#1 https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/08/27/carbonflows/

THIS POST IS A STUDY OF SUPERSTITION AS THE PRIMARY DRIVING FORCE IN ECO WACKO ENVIRONMENTALISM IN THE CONTEXT OF POST MODERNISM.

WE PROPOSE THAT THE THEORY OF HUMAN CAUSED GLOBAL WARMING IS A CREATION OF THIS LINE OF THINKING.

PART-1: SEAN MCDOWELL, THE RELIGION OF APOCALYPTIC ENVIRONMENTALISM

LINK: https://seanmcdowell.org

SeanMcDowell.org

I don’t want you to be hopeful. I want you to panic. I want you to act as you would in a crisis. I want you to act as if our house is on fire. Because it is.” – Greta Thunberg, student activist. Have you ever wondered why people are so drawn to apocalyptic environmentalism? Why do so many people believe the narrative that we are irreversibly destroying the environment and the world will end soon? There must be a good reason why people like Leonardo DiCaprio and Greta Thunberg promote doomsday scenarios as for example that modern civilization will end soon but that there are things the humans can and must do to save the earth from this doomsday. These doomsday obsessions are also promoted by the media and by politicians.

Here is the question: Where is all this coming from? What is the deeper reason for otherwise rational humans to be acting this way? What Sean says is that there is a DEEPER REASON.

THE REST OF THIS POST IS THE BLOGGER’S ABBREVIATED VERSION OF WHAT SEAN SAYS. >>>

THE DEEPER REASON IS OUR NEED FOR RELIGION IN A RATIONAL WORLD OF SCIENCE WHERE CONVENTIONAL RELIGION DOES NOT FIT.

Apocalyptic activism is a new kind of secular religion and in that context, the environmentalism movement of our time is the dominant secular religion of the educated, upper-middle-class elite. It provides a new story about our collective identity and individual purpose. It designates good guys and bad guys, heroes and villains, the holy and the sinners but not in the traditional language of religion but in the modern language of science, which is thought to give it the assumed legitimacy. And it is thus that environmentalism has replaced Christianity in the west. Christianity has facilitated the environmentalism interpretation with Genesis where we find that humans are created in God’s image and given Dominion over nature such that humans are not part of nature but its masters and caretakers.

In the Christian tradition, humans have failed to be in a proper relationship with God. In apocalyptic environmentalism, humans have failed to be in a proper relationship with nature. Rather than looking to priests to interpret scripture, apocalyptic environmentalism looks to SCIENCE for authority. Recycling has replaced communion as a “spiritual” practice. And rather than yearning for Heaven, when we are at peace with God and others, apocalyptic environmentalism yearns for a future when we are at peace with “the envronment”, a weird reference to the humanless nature of Bambi and friends.

Bambi Flower Thumper Owl & Friends | Dessins disney, Bambi de disney, Fond  d'écran dessin animé

Apocalyptic environmentalism borrows the trappings of the Christian worldview from sin to redemption, rites, and salvation. A case of good vs. evil. According to Michael Shellenberger, apocalyptic environmentalism provides people with a grand story as in religion, in which they are the heroes, so they can find meaning in their lives.

Environmental Evangelists

As humans, we need purpose. We need to feel like we are part of a bigger story. If we don’t find our meaning and purpose in life in the way God intended we will find it somewhere else. Being caretakers of “the environment” provides that role for humans where they can be environmental evangelists. Many environmental evangelists are unaware of the religion they are propagating. They sincerely believe the narrative and promote it for the benefit of mankind. And many think they are merely adhering to science, not superstition or fantasy. But what they are promoting is religion, and many of their claims are not supported by science. Apocalyptic environmentalism is a religion.

The Buddha, his life, teachings, and the environment | The Sunday Times Sri  Lanka

IN A RELATED POST WE PRESENT THIS RELIGIOUS INTERPRETATION OF ENVIRONMENTALISM AND CLIMATE ACTION BY SIR DAVID ATTENBOROUGH, A FAMOUS ENVIRONMENTALIST WHO HAS BEEN ABLE TO DIVIDE THE WORLD OF LIVING CREATURES INTO TWO PARTS AS (1) “THE NATURAL WORLD” (BEASTS AND BIRDS AND WORMS AND TREES AND SUCH) AND “THE UNNATURAL WORLD” OF THE HUMANS, WITH THE ACTIVISM INTERPRETATION THAT HUMANS ARE NOT PART OF LIFE ON EARTH BUT AN EXTERNAL AND DESTRUCTIVE FORCE THAT THREATENS THE NATURAL WORLD SUCH THAT THE WORLD NEEDS ENVIRONMENTAL ACTIVISM SUCH AS HIS, TO SAVE THE NATURAL WORLD FROM THE UNNATURAL WORLD OF HUMANS.

Brazilian Couple Created 1,502-Acre Forest In 20 Years, Which Houses 500+  Endangered Plant & Animal Species | Animal species, Trees to plant, Replant
THE NATURAL WORLD

Sir David recently enjoyed a private viewing of his new documentary in the grounds of Kensington Palace with the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge, after their children requested to meet him
THE UNNATURAL WORKD

THE CLOSE LINK BETWEEN RELIGION AND ENVIRONMENTALISM DESCRIBED BY SEAN AND MICHAEL ABOVE IS MADE ALL THE MORE CLEAR IN THIS PRESENTATION OF BUDDHISM BY SUPREME ENVIRONMENTALIST SIR DAVID ATTENBOROUGH WHERE WE FIND THESE ENVIRONMENTALISM WISDOMS IN THE SAYINGS OF GAUTAMA BUDDHA:

ENVIRONMENTALISM WISDOMS IN BUDDHISM AS DESCRIBED BY SIR DAVID.

MORE ON SUPERSTITION IN RELIGION: THE CASE OF BUDDHISM

Amazon.com: Siddhartha Gautama Buddha: The Mind Is Everything What You  Think You Become eBook : Patel, Dhirubhai: Kindle Store
GAUTAMA BUDDHA

SUPERSTITION IN RELIGION

FATALISM

Fatalism refers to a particular way in which people regard the events that occur in their lives, usually expressed as a belief that an individual does not have personal control over circumstances and that their lives are determined through a divine or powerful external agency (Hazen & Ehiri, 2006). These views are at odds with the dominant themes of modern health promotion movements, and present significant challenges for health advocates who aim to avert road crashes and diminish their consequences. The limited literature on fatalism reveals that it is not a simple concept, with religion, culture, superstition, experience, education and degree of perceived control of one’s life all being implicated in accounts of fatalism. One distinction in the literature that seems promising is the distinction between empirical and theological fatalism, although there are areas of uncertainty about how well-defined the distinction between these types of fatalism is.

Understanding the Creation Story from Genesis | Zondervan Academic
Bambi Turns 75! Take a Deeper Look at the Film's Impact on Animation, Risk  Taking and the Loss of a Parent

RELATED POST ON BAMBI: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/15/the-bambi-principle/

BOTTOM LINE: ECO WACKO ENVIRONMENTALISM IS WHAT WE NEED IN A POST MODERN WORLD WHERE THE CREDIBILITY OF TRADITIONAL RELIGONS HAS WANED.

Don't look away now: are viewers finally ready for the truth about nature?  | David Attenborough | The Guardian

{1}: QUORA QUESTION:

How worried are you that rising temperatures of global warming will have a significant impact on your life?

{2}: ANSWERED BY RYSZARD RAKOWSKI:

Not worried at all. Global warming is not an “existential threat”, it is a political and economic scam. IPCC and corrupt politicians should be jailed for perpetuating this lie.

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is image-50.png

{3}: COMMENT BY GARY KRAMER:

Rubbish! Please read the science and educate yourself.

#1 Read the IPCC AR6 – Sixth Assessment Report. The State of the Climate in 2020.

#2: UK climate change – Climate Change Committee,

#3: Canada Climate Change Report – Canada’s Changing Climate.

#4: Australia’s State of the Climate Report.

#5: Climate Change Scenarios for New Zealand.

#6: USA Climate Change Report –

#7: Global Climate Report – Annual 2020,

#8: GHG emissions – CO₂ and Greenhouse Gas Emissions,

#9: Global temperatures- World of Change: Global Temperatures,

#10: Ice core data – Factcheck: What Greenland ice cores say about past and present climate change,

#11: More ice core data – CO2 Ice Core Data,

#12: CO2 emissions – CO2 emissions.

#13: IPCC Review In-depth Q&A: The IPCC’s sixth assessment report on climate science – Carbon Brief.

#14: If you believe that’s there’s a worldwide conspiracy then you are entitled to that belief. Unfortunately it has no basis in fact.

{4}: CRITICAL EVALUATION OF THE GARY KRAMER COMMENT.

(1) THE 6TH IPCC REPORT:

IF THE IPCC KNOWS THE CAUSE AND UNDERSTANDS THE EVOLUTION OF THE CURRENT WARMING TREND OF THE HOLOCENE INTERGLACIAL AS A CAUSE AND EFFECT PHENOMENON DRIVEN BY HUMAN ACTIVITY, WHY DO THEY NEED 6 REPORTS? IS THERE SOMETHING WRONG WITH THE FIRST 5? ARE THOSE 5 REPORTS FALSEHOODS? DO THEY CONTAIN ERRORS THAT NEED CORRECTING?

IF SO WHAT ASSURANCE DO WE HAVE THAT THE 6TH VERSION OF THIS REPORT DOES NOT CONTAIN ERRORS OR THAT THE REPORT IS NOT A FALSEHOOD THAT WILL BE REVEALED TO US IN THE 7TH IPCC REPORT?

IN THAT CONTEXT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IN WHAT THE IPCC HAS GIVEN US AS GOD GIVEN TRUTH THAT MUST NOT BE QUESTIONED, WE FIND KNOWN STATISTICAL ERRORS SUCH AS THE TCRE METRIC OF CLIMATE SCIENCE. OF THE MANY FALLACIES OF THE TCRE NOTED IN RELATED POSTS ON THIS SITE,, THE MOST EGREGIOUS IS THE MATHEMATICAL INCONSISTENCY ISSUE WHERE THE ECS AND THE TCRE ARE CLAIMED TO REPRESENT THE SAME UNDERLYING PHENOMENON BUT WITH MECHANISMS THAT ARE INTERNALLY INCONSISTENT.

THE IPCC PRESENTATION, THOUGHT TO BE TRUTH BY DEFINITION SIMPLY BECAUSE IT IS THE THE IPCC, SUFFERS FROM THE AD HOMINEM FALLACY. WHAT’S MORE, THE REPORT CONTAINS SERIOUS METHODOLIGICAL AND STATISTICAL ERRORS DESCRIBED IN THESE LINKED DOCUMENTS:

LINK1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/08/10/links-to-ipcc6-posts/ ,

LINK2: https://tambonthongchai.com/?s=MATHEMATICAL+INCONSISTENCY

(2): THE UK 2021 CLIMATE REPORT:

THIS REPORT SAYS THAT IT PRESENTS THREE KEY MESSAGES AS FOLLOWS: (1) Historic promisses: The Government has made historic climate promises in the past year, for which it deserves credit. However, it has been too slow to follow these with delivery. This defining year for the UK’s climate credentials has been marred by uncertainty and delay to a host of new climate strategies. Those that have emerged have too often missed the mark. With every month of inaction, it is harder for the UK to get on track.

(2): Progress on Net Zero: Lockdown measures led to a record decrease in UK emissions in 2020 of 13% from the previous year. Sustained reductions in emissions require sustained Government leadership, underpinned by a strong Net Zero Strategy: A Net Zero Test would ensure that all Government policy, including planning decisions, is compatible with UK climate targets.


(4): The big cross-cutting challenges of public engagement, fair funding and local delivery must be tackled.

CRITICAL COMMENTARY: WHAT WE SEE HERE IS THE POLITICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND NO CIMATE SCIENCE EXCEPT FOR THE “NET ZERO STRATEGY” THAT VIOLATES CLIMATE SCIENCE. AS EXPLAINED IN A RELATED POST ON “WHAT DOES NET ZERO MEAN” WE SHOW THAT NET ZERO STRATEGIES VIOLATE THE CLIMATE SCIENCE OF CLIMATE ACTION. CLIMATE ACTION MEANS ZERO FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS. NET ZERO MEANS WE CAN KEEP BURNING FOSSIL FUELS IF WE CANCEL IT OUT IN THE CARBON CREDITS MARKET OR IN CARBON CYCLE INTERVENTIONS. THESE STRATEGIES ARE INCONSISTENT WITH THE CLIMATE ACTION DEMANDED BY CLIMATE SCIENCE WHICH CALLS FOR ZERO FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS NOT “NET ZERO”. LINK TO RELATED POST ON “WHAT DOES NET ZERO MEAN?” https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/02/25/net-zero/

LINKS TO RELATED POST ON THE CLIMATE ACTION FLAW IN NET ZERO:

LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/06/19/vegandiet/

LINK#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/05/20/the-power-of-trees/

(3): CANADA’S CHANGING CLIMATE:

Canada is doing a great job of putting into perspective the threat of climate change, as described in the latest IPCC report, in a Canadian context. The Canadian story is potentially more catastrophic then the global one. Canada has been warming at an estimated 1.7°C since 1948, or a little more than double the global average of 0.8°C. Furthermore, the report echo the IPCC finding that our emission need to be reduced drastically immediately to be able to reach net-zero in 2050. If we fail the consequence will be catastrophic with warming potentially reaching an average of 6.3°C and as high as 11°C in Northern Canada under a high emission scenario. It is important to remind ourselves that the temperature difference between the last ice age and now was about 4°C to 7°C and took 5 thousand years so a 6.3°C warming in 100 years is unprecedented and with potentially catstrophic consequences. With regards to the potential impact of a 6.3°C increase, the report predict that extreme temperature of the sort that occured every 50 years will now happen yearly. It also predicts that the Hudson Bay will most likely be ice free year round by 2050 let alone 2100. Furthermore, even under a medium emission scenario the report predict that Most small ice caps and ice shelves in the Canadian Arctic will disappear by 2100
Sea level change won’t escape our foolishness with decreases of up to 90 centimeters, and increases ranging from 50 centimetres on the Pacific coast to 1 meter on the Atlantic Coast. However the report reminds us that we are not only the cause of this problem but also the solution. Beyond the next few decades, the largest uncertainty about the magnitude of future climate change is rooted in uncertainty about human behaviour, that is, whether the world will follow a pathway of low, medium, or high emissions. As the previous IPCC report and our latest Canadian Food Guide reminds us our food choices have consequences, and will be an integral part of ever hoping to meet, let alone exceed, our goals of limiting temperature increase by 2100 to 1.5°C. Want to fight our climate emergency, loss of nature, global acidification, eutrophication, fresh water shortage, prevent pandemics, antibiotic resistance, health problems, save countless lives and much much more without the need to wait for government, corporations or technological innovation? Go vegan today! Contact us for help in your change of lifestyle and to link up with one of the many local communities in your area.

(4): SIMILAR NATIONAL CLIMATE ACTION PLANS ARE FOUND IN THE AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT REPORTS.

IN SUMMARY, THE CLIMATE ACTION REPORTS FROM BRITAIN, CANADA, AUSTRALIA, AND NEW ZEALAND, CITED AS CLIMATE SCIENCE, ARE IN REALITY NATIONAL LEVEL CLIMATE ACTION PLANS. YET, AS NOTED IN A RELATED POST, THE ONLY CLIMATE ACTION SOUGHT BY CLIMATE SCIENCE IS A GLOBALLY COORDINATED PROGRAM TO REDUCE GLOBAL FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS. THIS IS WHY THE UN WAS INVOLVED. IT WAS THOUGHT THAT THEY COULD PUT TOGEGHER THIS GLOBAL CLIMATE ACTION PLAN ALONG THE LINES OF THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL, THE SO CALLED “MONTREAL PROTOCOL FOR THE CLIMATE”. THAT THE UN HAS FAILED TO DELIVER THE “MONTREAL PROTOCOL FOR THE CLIMATE” DOES NOT MEAN THAT THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR CLIMATE ACTION HEROISM FOR NATION STATES. THERE ISN’T. IT HAS TO BE GLOBAL. CLIMATE ACTION HEROISM OF NATION STATES WILL NOT DELIVER THE REDUCTION IN GLOBAL FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS NEEDED AND DEMANDED BY CLIMATE SCIENCE AS DESCRIBED IN THESE RELATED POSTS.

LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/02/23/renewable-energy-statistics/

LINK#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/05/22/climate-catch22/

LINK#3: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/08/21/cop26-glasgow-2021/

Customer Reviews: Gomer Pyle U.S.M.C.: The Complete Series [24 Discs] [DVD]  - Best Buy

LINK TO SOURCE AND FULL TEXT: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2417143

ABSTRACT

The mathematics of continuous compounding is not limited to the valuation of continuously compounded financial instruments and flow annuities, but rather it is a versatile and robust model that may be used for valuation of all financial contracts normally encountered. It consists of a simple, consistent, coherent and conceptually appealing set of equations that apply without modification to the complete range of applications. The discrete stepwise model of compounding, by contrast, is a redundant innovation that is more complicated than the generalized model and limited in scope.

FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS

Because financial contracting involves stepwise compounding and discrete cash flow streams it is thought that the exponential model does not apply because it subsumes continuous compounding. Conventional wisdom is that an entirely new approach to valuation is necessary. We show in this paper that this is not so because for any financial contract that offers a stepwise rate of return r, there exists an equivalent continuous rate c, and for any discrete annuity there exists an equivalent flow annuity; and there are simple relationships between the continuous compounding parameters and the discrete compounding parameters. The continuous compounding model is not limited to pricing continuously compounded securities but in fact the model is more general in scope than the discrete model. We show that the continuous exponential model is robust and simple and is easily applied to all forms of financial contracting for valuation purposes. The simple and consistent set of equations presented here apply without modification under all combinations of payment and compounding periods and may be used to price a wide variety of financial contracts. It is taken for granted that sufficient computational machinery and software exist so that in practice it will not be necessary to grind out the algebra presented in this paper or in textbooks. It is proposed only that the algebra presented here is superior to the textbook approach for the purpose of teaching the concept of exponential growth in finance.

The Equivalent Flow Annuity.

Consider a chunky annuity that pays $1 per period m times a year at equal intervals of time. After the first period, 1/m years have passed and $1 has been received. We can compute the value of this payment as zt = ect = e-c/m. We now price a flow annuity of EFA dollars per year for 1/m years as vt = EFA(1-e-)/c. For equal wealth we set zt = vt to get EFA = c/(1-e -c/m). The Equivalent Continuous Rate. Equate the value of wt at any value of t say t=1 with n compounding periods per year and a period rate of to get e c = (1+r)n . Take the natural logarithm of both sides and the result is c = nln(1+r).

SOME TEXTBOOK EXAMPLES

EXAMPLE 1:

Your deferred compensation plan will pay $1,000 in 5 years. What is the value of this plan today if your required rate of return is 10% per year with continuous compounding?

zt = e-ct = e-50.10 = 0.60653066. The value today is 0.606530661000 = $606.53

EXAMPLE 2:

You decide to invest $10,000 a year for 20 years in a bond mutual fund with payments spread continuously over the year. The fund pays 10.5175% APY2 . How much will your contributions be worth after 20 years? What lump sum could you invest today to have the same amount in 20 years?

c = nln(1+r) = 1ln(1+0.10517) = 0.10 zt = e-ct = e-200.10 = 0.135335 vt = (1-zt)/c = 0.8646647/0.10 = 8.646647 = w0 wt = w0e ct = 8.646647e0.1020 = 8.6466477.389056099 = 63.89056099

The present value is $86,466.47 and the future value is $638,905.61

EXAMPLE 3:

The Searcy Hat Company is planning an expansion that is expected to provide cash flows of $100,000 per year, generated continuously throughout the year as a flow annuity, for 20 years. At the end of the 20-year period, the investment can be liquidated for $200,000. The required rate of return is 10.517% APY. What is the value of this project today?

c = nln(1+r) = 1ln(1+0.10517) = 0.10 zt = e-ct = e-200.10 = 0.135335 vt = (1-zt)/c = 0.8646647/0.10 = 8.646647 The value of the project is 8.64667100,000 + 0.135335*200,000 = $891,734

EXAMPLE 4:

You invest $1,000 today in a fund that pays 10% per year continuously compounded.
How much will you have at the end of 5 years?
1/zt = e, ct = e0.10*5 = 1.64872. You will have $1,648.72

EXAMPLE 5:

Montgomery National Bank pays 10% interest on savings compounded annually. If you invest $100 today, how much will you have 20 years from now?
c = nln(1+r) = 1ln(1+0.10) = 0.09531018, wt = ect = e20* 0.09531018 = 6.727499949.

You will have $672.75

MORE EXAMPLES

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF THE WORRY BY ENVIRONMENTAL ACTIVISTS THAT THE OCEAN IS BEING POLLUTED BY CARGO SHIPS BECAUSE THERE ARE SO MANY OF THEM.

LINK: https://medium.com/age-of-awareness/big-cargo-ships-big-pollution-834a525d7b7f

CRITICAL COMMENTARY

ON AVERAGE, A FULLY LOADED CARGO SHIP WEIGHS 220,000 TONNES AND THAT MEANS THAT ALL THE 5,371 CARGO SHIPS OF THE WORLD FULLY LOADED WEIGH A TOTAL OF 1.18 GIGATONNES OR 1.18E9 TONNES. THE WATER IN THE OCEAN WEIGHS 1.4E18 TONNES. THIS MEANS THAT THE WEIGHT OF ALL THE CARGO SHIPS OF THE WORLD AND ALL THEIR CARGO TAKEN TOGETHER IS 0.000008% OF THE WEIGHT OF THE WATER IN THE OCEAN.

IF THE HUMANS COULD MAKE AND SINK 5,371 FULLY LOADED CARGO SHIPS AND ALL THEIR CARGO INTO THE OCEAN EVERY YEAR, IT WOULD TAKE THE HUMANS 125,000 YEARS TO GET THEIR SHIPPING POLLUTION UP TO 1% OF THE WATER IN THE OCEAN.

CONCLUSION:

THE OCEAN IS A VERY BIG PLACE AND WHAT’S MORE, WE DON’T REALLY KNOW THE OCEAN.

IT’S A LITTLE TOO PREMATURE FOR THE HUMANS TO BE PLAYING THEIR ECO WACKO GAMES IN THE OCEAN.

Free Vector | Ocean plastic garbage pollution with ship illustration
Giant Ships Are Polluting the Seas With Thousands of Lost Cargo Containers

A look at the traders behind the China-Ecuador-U.S. oil triangle | Reuters

A NEW AND CREATIVE FORM OF CLIMATE ACTIVISM IS THE CASE OF CHEVRON IN ECUADOR WHERE IT IS CLAIMED THAT THE CHEVRON OIL PRODUCTION FACILITY IN ECUADOR IS GUILTY OF CONTAMINATION. THE ECUADORIAN COURT FOUND CHEVRON GUILTY AND CHARGED IT A FINE OF $18 BILLION BUT LATER ASKED FOR ONLY $9 BILLION. THIS ISSUE HAS BEEN MADE INTO A KIND OF CLIMATE CHANGE ACTIVISM IN THE FORM OF THE EVIL OF THE OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY. HERE WE ARGUE THAT THE EVIL IF ANY IN THIS CASE IS IN THE USE OF IT FOR CLIMATE ACTIVISM.

ECUADOR IS A COUNTRY RICH IN OIL AND GAS RESERVES BUT WITH A BIZARRE COMBINATION OF EXTREME WEALTH AND TRAGIC AND WIDESPREAD POVERTY IN THE COUNTRY SIDE. THIS COMBINATION IS A CREATION OF CORRUPTION AND IS SEEN ELSEWHERE IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD AS NOTED BY TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL. CORRUPTION IN THE THIRD WORLD USUALLY INVOLVES AN UNDERSTANDING BETWEEN RICH BUSINESSMEN AND GOVERNMENT INSIDERS THAT MONEY MATTERS AND SOLVES CONTENTIOUS ISSUES BETWEEN GOVERNMENT AND BUSINESS.

CHEVRON IS NOT THE ONLY FOREIGN OPERATION THERE IN THE OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY. THE LARGEST OPERATERS ARE THE CHINESE AND THEY SEEM TO GET ALONG WELL WITH THE GOVERNMENT THERE. WE ALSO HAVE OIL AND GAS OPERATIONS FROM SPAIN AND ITALY DOWN THERE. BUT CHEVRON IS THE ONLY FOREIGN OPERATION THERE THAT IS CONSTRAINED BY LAWS BACK IN ITS HOME COUNTRY THAT RESTRICT ITS ABILITY TO COOPERATE WITH CORRUPT FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS.

Corruption-growth interrelation. Source: Authors own illustration. |  Download Scientific Diagram

CORRUPTION IS THE THE REASON WE FIND THINGS LIKE THIS

Housing in poverty stricken Ecuador Stock Photo - Alamy

IN AN OIL RICH COUNTRY

Coveted and criticised, Latin America's super-rich multiply
Latin America's Plans to Tax the Rich

FROM TIME TO TIME THE GOVERNMENTS DOWN THERE COME UP WITH PLANS TO TAX THE RICH AND HELP THE POOR BUT THESE PLANS ARE EASILY MODIFIED BY CORRUPTION. THE ESSENCE OF CORRUPTION IN THE THIRD WORLD IS A CLOSE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GOVERNMENT AND THE RICH THAT BENEFTS BOTH PARTIES BUT THAT LEAVES OUT THE POOR.

Ecuador: pandemic casts 30% below poverty threshold

FOREIGN FIRMS THAT OPERATE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT HAVE TO GO ALONG TO GET ALONG AND THOSE THAT DO SUCCEED AND THOSE THAT DON’T MEET THE SHARP END OF THE CORRUPTION STICK. THE CHEVRON ISSUE IS NOT A CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUE. IT IS A CORRUPTION ISSUE IN A COUNTRY KNOWN FOR ITS CORRUPTION AND ITS BIZARRE COMBINATION OF EXTREME WEALTH AND EXTREME POVERTY – A KNOWN FEATURE OF CORRUPT COUNTRIES. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS FROM TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL TO THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT ABOUT CORRUPTION IN ECUADOR IS SUMMARIZED BELOW.

Corruption is a serious problem in Ecuador. Ecuadorian law provides criminal penalties for corruption by public officials, but the government does not implement the law effectively, and officials may engage in corrupt practices with impunity. Ecuador ranked 120 out of 176 countries surveyed for Transparency International’s 2016 Corruption Perceptions Index and received a score of 31 out of 100. Two high-profile cases of alleged official corruption involving state-owned petroleum company PetroEcuador and Brazilian construction firm Odebrecht illustrate the significant challenges that confront Ecuador with regards to corruption. Illicit payments for official favors and theft of public funds reportedly take place frequently. Dispute settlement procedures are complicated by the lack of transparency and inefficiency in the judicial system. Offering or accepting a bribe is illegal and punishable by imprisonment for up to five years. The Controller General is responsible for the oversight of public funds and there are frequent investigations and occasional prosecutions for irregularities. Ecuador ratified the UN Anticorruption Convention in September 2005. Ecuador is not a signatory to the OECD Convention on Combating Bribery. The 2008 Constitution created the Transparency and Social Control branch of government, tasked with preventing and combating corruption, among other things. In December 2008, President Correa issued a decree that created the National Secretariat for Transparency to investigate and denounce acts of corruption in the public sector. Both entities can conduct investigations into alleged acts of corruption. Responsibility for prosecution remains with the Office of the Prosecutor General.

241 Poverty In Ecuador Stock Photos, Pictures & Royalty-Free Images - iStock

CONCLUSION: THE “CONTAIMINATION” ISSUE IN ECUADOR IS MADE UNCLEAR BY CORRUPTION AND IT CANNOT BE UNDERSTOOD AS A CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUE OR AS THE INNATE EVIL OF THE FOSSIL FUEL INDUSTRY.

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL EVALUATION OF THE INSECT APOCALYPSE HYPOTHESIS

Best of Today, Dave Goulson on the 'Insect Apocalypse' - BBC Radio 4
DAVE GOULSON ON THE RIGHT. PRETTY GIRL FROM THE TV STATION ON THE LEFT

THE INSECT APOCALYPSE EXPLAINED BY BIOLOGIST DAVE GOULSON IN HIS 2019 PAPER IN”CURRENT BIOLOGY”, Goulson, Dave. “The insect apocalypse, and why it matters.” Current Biology 29.19 (2019): R967-R971.

Averting the Insect Apocalypse - Dave Goulson | CNHS

POINT#1: Humans being large animals have a large animal bias in their view of nature and think of the important features of nature in terms of their fellow large animals. This is why the conservation efforts of the humans emphasizes large animals and birds.

But now we find that there are more insects in the world than the population bomb humans pound for pound and in fact there are more insects in the wold than there are large animals in the world pound for pound.

So therefore our study of ecosystems has been all wrong all along because of the large animal bias of the large animal humans.

The insect apocalypse is not here but there are reasons for concern | The  Economist

POINT#2: So what happens if we include insects in the study of ecology? What we have learned from pursuing this question is the amazing fact that all this time that we were studying ecosystems and preaching environmentlism, we had it all wrong and only now we find that not only are there more insects than animals and birds pound for pound, but in terms of The functional features of ecosystems, insects far are more important than animals and birds.

POINT#3: So now we have corrected our large animal bias in the study of nature and so we are paying more attention to insects and have collected a significant database of the function of insects in the biosphere as well as the health an well being of the insect populations including the study of their population trends, And here is what we have found in the population trend data: Insects are in a state of catastrophic population decline. The data vary across regions but on the high side we find decline rates of around 2.7% per year over long periods 26 to 35 years. We do have the decline data but we have no idea of the cause for the decline and unsure whether the decline is a short term volatiliy or a long term decline. As for the cause of the decline, there are no clues. We don’t know. But the less we know the more we can guess and what we guess is what we always guess in population declines of species and these are habitat loss, pesticides, and climate change. The other clue is the Anthropocene – the human dominated ecosystem where all bad things can be trqced to something that the humans did.

Dead Insects HD Stock Images | Shutterstock

CRITICAL COMMENTARY


The great thing about the Anthropocene is that it provides the basis for a catch all for the explanation of any causation that has no explanation in the data. For example, the decline in biodiversity is assumed to be human caused and therefore a creation of the Anthrpocene. And so likewise, what we have for insects is the decline data in Germany and Puerto Rico over periods of 30 years or less where the data do not provide causation information. However, once human cause is assumed we can invoke things like Climate Change and the Anthropocene as the drivers of what is ultimately human cause. this kind of theory does not contain causation information. And the decline data that we do have in hand is neither long term nor global and there is no empirical evidence for the causation of the decline. In all such cases in the study of nature, the Anthropocene can be invoked because it is a blanket human cause hypothesis in a world now controlled by the humans. However the need for the Anthropocene to explain insect decline provides not the evidence of causation of the decline but evidence that we don’t know.

In a related post on the Anhropocene: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/07/04/will-steffen-the-anthropocene-man/ we note as follows.

The anthropocene proposition is based on the data presented above. These data show significant changes in “the Earth System” since 1950. Earth System scientists have found no natural explanation for these changes. It is therefore proposed that they must be a creation of the humans. Based on such human cause of changes in the Earth System, it is proposed that humans must now be in control of the Earth System. Based on these arguments, it is proposed that these data imply that since 1950, the Earth System has entered a new geological epoch in which not geology nor the natural processes of the Earth System, but the humans now control and determine changes in the earth system. This new geological epoch is therefore named the ANTHROPOCENE because the anthros are now in control and in charge of the Earth System. THIS PROCEDURE VIOLATES THE PRINCIPLES OF OBJECTIVE AND UNBIASED SCIENTIFIC INQUIRY. Specifically what we find here is that the anthropocene hypothesis was derived from the earth system data presented in the charts above. How is this hypothesis to be tested? The data used to construct a hypothesis may not be used to test that hypothesis because that kind of hypothesis test suffers from confirmation bias and the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy.

The need for the Anthrpocene to explain and to describe the role of humans in eco system decline and human causation for the data for insect decline in 30-year periods is not evidence of causation but in fact the evidence that there is no evidence of causation. The only useful information in the Goulson presentation are (1) that there is evidence of insect decline at multidecadal time scales and (2) that the cause of this decline requires the Anthropocene to construct is actually the evidence that we don’t know what caused the decline. What this presentation shows us is that the insect apocalypse is a fanciful theory with a fanciful name but that it needs the Anthropocene to establish the human caused apocalyse hypothesis is the evidence that there is no evidence of human caused apocalyse hypothesis.

How does global warming affect climate change? - Quora

QUESTION

HAVE WE WOKEN UP TOO LATE TO THE EFFECT OF OUR ACTIVITIES ON THE CLIMATE TO SAVE OUR DESCENDENTS FROM A HORRIFIC FUTURE AND POSSIBLE EXTINCTION OF OUR SPECIES?

ANSWER

YES. WE HAVE WOKEN UP TOO LATE TO THE EFFECT OF OUR ACTIVITIES ON THE CLIMATE TO SAVE OUR DESCENDENTS FROM A HORRIFIC FUTURE AND POSSIBLE EXTINCTION OF OUR SPECIES. JUST AS WE HAD DONE SO MANY TIMES BEFORE. WE HUMANS WILL NEVER LEARN.

HOLOCENE TEMPERATURE DYNAMICS

POST ON HOLOCENE TEMPERATURE DYNAMICS:

 https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/06/11/chaoticholocene/

HERE WE PRESENT A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE CLIMATE EVIL OF THE HUMANS, THE CLIMATE EVIL WE HUMANS HAVE COMMITTED JUST IN THE LAST FEW THOUSAND YEARS OF THE HOLOCENE INTERGLACIAL.

From Hunters to Settlers: How the Neolithic Revolution Changed the World |  Ancient Origins

CLIMATE EVIL OF THE HUMANS#1

BACK AT THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLOCENE, WE CAME OUT OF OUR CAVES, GAVE UP ON THE IDEA OF CANNIBALISM THAT HAD NEVER CAUSED GLOBAL WARMING, AND CLEARED THE FORESTS IN A HORRIFIC DEFORESTATION THAT DESTROYED THE ENVIRONMENT. AND THEN WE STARTED TO FARM AND THEREBY CAUSED A HORRIFIC GLOBAL WARMING THAT ENDED THE NATURAL 8.2K COOLING PERIOD OF THE HOLOCENE. THE GLOBAL WARMING OF THE HUMANS THUS CAUSED LASTED FOR FOUR THOUSAND YEARS. THIS HORRIFIC PLANET DESTROYING GLOBAL WARMING PERIOD IS CALLED THE “HOLOCENE CLIMATE OPTIMUM”. THE WARMING CAUSED THE MASS EXTINCTION OF OUR INTERBRED NEANDERTHAL BUDDIES. OH HOW WE MISS THEM AND ALL THAT INTERBREEDING. IT WAS FUN WHILE IT LASTED BUT THE GLOBAL WARMING PUT AN END TO IT.

Comparing the Paleolithic and Neolithic Eras

CLIMATE EVIL OF THE HUMANS#2

THE PLANET WAS SAVED FROM OUR HUMAN CAUSED GLOBAL WARMING BY A COLD PERIOD SENT BY GOD TO SAVE THE PLANET FROM THE HUMANS. BUT THEN WE HUMANS BEGAN OUR PLANET KILLING EVIL ALL OVER AGAIN AFTER THE GROWTH OF HUMAN CIVILIZATION MADE IT POSSIBLE FOR HUMANS TO BUILD GIANT STRUCTURES OF STONE AND BRICK AND TO DIG FOR MINERALS THAT COULD BE MELTED INTO METAL FOR THE CREATION OF METALLIC TOOLS AND FOR AN EVEN GREATER DESTRUCTION OF NATURE BY THE EVIL HUMANS.

History of the Minoan Civilization on Crete
🎨 Minoan civilization painting murals - YouTube

WITH GREATER AND GREATER CONTROL AND DESTRUCTION OF NATURE THE EVIL HUMANS WERE NOW ON THE PATH TO GREATER PLANETARY EVIL AND THE UTTER DESTRUCTION OF THE ENVIRONMENT. AS THE HUGE AND PLANET KILLING MINOAN CIVILIZATION GREW WITH ALL THAT MINING AND SMELTING AND THOSE GIANT PALACES AND ALL THAT WARFARE, THE PLANET WAS ON FIRE AGAIN WITH GLOBAL WARMING OF THE HUMANS. THIS IS A PERIOD NOW KNOWN AS THE MINOAN WARMING THAT CAUSED WIDESPREAD DESTRUCTION OF NATURE AND MASS EXTINCTIONS. OH THE HORROR THE HORROR. AND THE PLANET WOULD HAVE BEEN DESTROYED BY THE GLOBAL WARMING OF THE MINOAN HUMANS BUT GOD SO LOVED THIS WORLD THAT HE HAD CREATED THAT HE INTERVENED AND SAVED THE PLANET FROM THE GLOBAL WARMING OF THE MINOAN HUMANS BY IMPOSING YET ANOTHER GLOBAL COOLING PERIOD THAT FOLLOWED THE MINOAN WARM PERIOD.

CLIMATE EVIL OF THE HUMANS#3

Augustine, the Roman Empire, and the Rise of Christianity — Broadway United  Church of Christ
THE ROMAN EMPIRE

BUT THE CLIMATE EVIL OF THE HUMANS AND THEIR DESTRUCTION OF THE ENVIRONMENT WEREN’T OVER YET. IT WAS JUST BEGINNING AND THE WORST WAS YET TO COME. AFTER GOD HAD DESTROYED THE MINOAN CIVILIZATION WITH GLOBAL COOLING, THE HUMANS ROSE UP AGAIN AGAINST NATURE AND AGAINST THE ENVIRONMENT AND CREATED THE GRAND AND EVEN BIGGER HUMAN CIVILIZATION CALLED THE ROMAN EMPIRE.

Ancient Roman architecture - Wikipedia
ROMAN ADVANCES IN ENGINEERING AND DESTRUCTION OF THE ENVIRONMENT

NEWTONIC.COM LISTS SOME OF THE HORRORS OF THE ROMAN EMPIRE IN TERMS OF ITS DESTRUCTION OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND IN TERMS OF CLIMATE CHANGE. “Beginning with the founding of the city of Rome in 8th century BCE, the earliest period of Ancient Rome was the Roman Kingdom which ended with the overthrow of the kings in 509 BC. This was followed by the Roman Republic, which ended with Augustus establishing himself as the first Roman Emperor in 27 BCE. The last period of Ancient Rome was the Roman Empire which reached its zenith in 117 CE becoming one of the largest empires of the ancient world. The period of Ancient Rome is considered to have ended with the collapse of the Western Roman Empire in 5th century CE. The ancient Romans build several engineering marvels including magnificent aqueducts, durable roads and splendid structures like the Colosseum and the Pantheon. Apart from engineering they made important contributions to architecture, law, literature, science and technology owing to discoveries and innovations. Here are the 10 major accomplishment of Ancient Rome”. AND WITH SO MANY MORE STONE AND BRICK AND METAL STRUCTURES AND ROADS AND HIGHWAYS AND METAL TOOLS AND CHARIOTS, AND ALL THAT WARFARE AND KILLINGS AND ALL THAT WINE AND PARTIES AND SEX THE ROMANS SET IN MOTION YET ANOTHER CYCLE OF GLOBAL WARMING THAT SCORCHED THE EARTH AND THREATENED MASS EXTINCTIONS, THE DESTRUCTION OF THE ENVRONMENT, AND THE DESTRUCTION OF THE PLANET ITSELF WITH ROMAN CAUSED GLOBAL WARMING.

What About “Climate Change”?. Climate Has Always Been Changing B.C. to A.D.  500 Roman “warm period” A.D. 500 to A.D. 900 Post-Roman “cooling period” -  ppt download

AND GOD INTERVENED ONCE AGAIN AND SAVED THE ENVRONMENT THAT HE LOVES AND THE PLANET THAT HE LOVES AND ALL THOSE CREATURES THAT HE LOVED THAT WERE GOING TO MASS EXTINCTIONS. HE ORDERED ANOTHER COOLING PERIOD AND THE PLANET COOLED FOR THOUSANDS OF YEARS TO CREATE A WORLD AND ITS ENVIRONMENT THAT IS SAFE FROM HUMANS. THE COOLING DESTROYED THE ROMAN EMPIRE AND CREATED A PLANET SAFE FROM HUMAN CIVILIZATION IN A PERIOD THE HUMANS CALL “THE DARK AGES” BUT IT WAS DARK ONLY FOR THE HUMANS WITH THE ENVIRONMENT AND THE CLIMATE SAFE NOW FROM DESTRUCTION BY THE HUMANS.

The transition between late antiquity and the early medieval period in  north Etruria (400-900 AD) - Medievalists.net
6 Reasons the Dark Ages Weren't So Dark - HISTORY
THE DARK AGES SAVED THE ENVIRONMENT AND THE PLANET FROM THE HUMANS

WITH THE GLOBAL COOLING THAT GOD HAD ORDERED, AND WITH HUMAN CIVILIZATION GONE, THE CLIMATE AND THE ENVIRONMENT RETURNED TO ITS PRISTINE AND BEAUTIFUL CONDITION JUST THE WAY GOD HAD CREATED THEM AND JUST THE WAY GOD HAD WANTED THEM TO BE.

Nature Quotes - Inspirational Nature Quotes
1,689 Harmony Collage Photos - Free & Royalty-Free Stock Photos from  Dreamstime

BUT THE EVIL HUMANS WERE’NT DONE YET. THEY WERE JUST BIDING THEIR TIME IN THE BLISSFUL GLOBAL COOLING THAT THE ENVIRONMENT LOVED AND THEY WERE COMING UP WITH NEW IDEAS AND NEW TECHNOLOGIES FOR GLOBAL WARMING AND THE DESTRUCTION OF THE PLANET AND THE MASS EXTINTION OF THE BEAUTIFUL CREATURES OF THE ENVIRONMENT.

Is human nature evil? Or is the violence of nature to blame? | Steven  Pinker | Big Think - YouTube
Iris Chang Quote: “Apparently some quirk in human nature allows even the  most unspeakable acts of evil to become banal within minutes, prov...”

Living in Medieval Europe - Home
THE HUMAN CIVILIZATION OF THE MIDDLE AGES

FOLLOWING THE FALL OF THE ROMAN EMPIRE AND AFTER MANY CENTURIES OF DESPAIR AND ANGUISH, THE EVIL HUMANS FINALLY HATCHED A NEW CIVILIZATION WITH NEW TECHNOLOGIES AND NEW AMBITIONS THAT THEY THOUGHT WOULD SURELY CAUSE GLOBAL WARMING AND DESTROY THE PLANET THIS TIME ALONG WITH MASS EXTINCTIONS AND SO THEY CREATED THIS BRAND NEW GRAND HUMAN CIVILIZATION WITH NEW TECHNOLOGIES AND POPULATION EXPLOSION THAT WE NOW KNOW AS THE MIDDLE AGES OR THE MEDIEVAL CIVILIZATION OF THE HUMANS SHOWN IN THE IMAGE ABOVE AND THE IMAGES BELOW.

Medieval Europe: An Extract from Chris WickhamYale University Press London  Blog

AND SURE ENOUGH, THEIR NEW TECHNOLOGIES AND POPULATION EXPLOSION AND THEIR NEW CIVILIZATION WAS DESTROYING THE ENVIRONMENT AND SOON IT BEGAN TO CAUSE GLOBAL WARMING. PLANETARY DESTRUCTION AND MASS EXTINCTIONS WERE THUS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME. BUT THANK GOD, GOD INTERVENED AGAIN UNABLE TO SEE HIS MASTERPIECE OF CREATION DESTROYED BY HUMAN CAUSED CLIMATE CHANGE. IT IS THUS THAT AN ANGRY GOD SENT DOWN A BITTER COLD PERIOD TO PUNISH THE EVIL HUMANS WHO WERE NOT TAKING CARE OF THE ENVIRONMENT. WE NOW KNOW THIS PUNISHMENT FROM GOD AS “THE LITTLE ICE AGE”. DETAILS ABOUT THIS DIVINE HARSH PUNISHMENT OF THE HUMANS ARE PROVIDED IN A RELATED POST: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/07/19/liaclimatologybibliography/

WHERE WE NOTE: Europe plunged into a period of cooling that bottomed out in 1600-1800 AD at about 1C cooler than the Medieval Warm Period. It is thought that the cooling was initiated by aerosols from a large scale global volcanism event (see bibliography below and related post on aerosols [LINK] ). This cold period, known as the Little Ice Age (LIA), was a period of great hardship for Europeans. Canals and rivers were frozen, growth of sea ice around Iceland closed down harbors and shipping, hailstorms and snowstorms were heavy and frequent, and road and water transport was made difficult or impossible. Agricultural failure and consequent starvation and death devastated Europe. The Scandinavian colonies in Greenland starved to death and disappeared (Matthews/Briffa, 2005) (Soon/Baliunas, 2003). To the Europeans of the time used to relative warmth and agricultural wealth, these extreme weather events seemed abnormal, unusual and bizarre and therefore likely to have evil other-worldly causes and explanations. The human tendency to look for cause and effect relationships in extreme weather predicament and their usual solutions (Maller, 1933), drove the LIA Europeans to climate action not unlike the sorcery killings of Melanesia described in a related post [LINK] .

Little Ice Age Climatology: A Bibliography | Thongchai Thailand
LITTLE ICE AGE
Religious competition was to blame for Europe's witch hunts | The Economist
Where Witch Hunts Began - JSTOR Daily

Europe in the Middle Ages - Technology, Culture, and Trade in the Middle  Ages
How Europe's Population in the Middle Ages Doubled

THE LITTLE ICE AGE DID THE JOB AND DESTROYED THE HUMAN CIVILIZATION THAT HAD CREATED THE GLOBAL WARMING OF THE MIDDLE AGES. HUMAN CIVILIZATION WAS DESTROYED AND SO THE ENVIRONMENT AND THE PLANET WERE SAFE. BUT THE HUMANS WERE NOT DONE YET. THEIR BIGGEST CRIME AGAINST THE ENVIRONMENT AND AGAINST THE PLANET WAS YET TO COME. THEY RECOVERED FROM THE COLD OF THE LITTLE ICE AGE BY BURNING WITCHES AND THEN THEY CREATED THE GREATEST SIN OF ALL. WE NOW KNOW THIS SIN AS THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION. HERE THE HUMANS COMMITTED THEIR GREATEST SIN AGAINST GOD ALMIGHTY BY DIGGING UP FOSSIL FUELS AND BURNING IT. IT WAS THUS THAT THEY HAVE PLUNGED THE ENVIRONMENT AND THE PLANET INTO A HORRIFIC GLOBAL WARMING THAT SCIENTISTS SAY IS WORSE THAN THE ONE IN THE MIDDLE AGES, WORSE THAN THE ONE IN THE ROMAN PERIOD, WORSE THAN THE ONE IN THE MINOAN PERIOD AND WORSE THAN THE ONE IN THE NEOLITHIC PERIOD. THIS IS THE GREATEST TEST OF ALL. WILL THE HUMANS FINALLY DESTROY THE ENVIRONMENT AND THE PLANET NOW THAT THEY HAVE FOSSIL FUELS AND ALL KINDS OF PLANET KILLING TECHNOLOGY? LET US PRAY

Prayer for Climate Change — Inner Altar
Download "Laudato Si" | Pope Francis' Encyclical on Environment and Climate  Change
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Tearfund on Twitter: "'Climate change is already affecting all of us. But  as we've seen from the unprecedented occurrence of two cyclones in five  weeks hitting the coast of eastern Africa –
Prayers and liturgies – Christian Climate Action

LINK TO PRAYERS: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/10/21/climate-change-and-religion/

Prayer for Climate Change — Inner Altar

Rising Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide on Earth Just Keeps Rising and Rising -  New Yorkled Magazine

THIS POST IS A PRESENTATION OF A RELATED WORK PUBLISHED AT SSRN.COM

LINK TO SOURCE: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2997420

A FOUNDATIONAL RELATIONSHIP IN THE THEORY OF ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING (AGW) IS THAT ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION IS RESPONSIVE TO FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS AT AN ANNUAL TIME SCALE. THE RELATED WORK LINKED ABOVE IS A STATISTICAL TEST OF THIS HYPOTHESIS. THE ESSENTIAL FINDING IS THAT DETRENDED CORRELATION ANALYSIS FAILS TO PROVIDE EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FOR THIS RELATIONSHIP. NO EVIDENCE IS FOUND THAT ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION IS RESPONSIVE TO FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS AT AN ANNUAL TIME SCALE. WE CONCLUDE THAT THE FOUNDATIONAL ASSUMPTION OF AGW THEORY THAT FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS CHANGE ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE DATA.

THE RELEVANT SECTIONS OF THE SSRN PAPER ARE PROVIDED BELOW. THE FULL TEXT MAY BE FOUND AT THE LINK PROVIDED ABOVE.

PART-1: INTRODUCTORY COMMENTS

The essence of the theory of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is that fossil fuel emissions cause warming by increasing atmospheric CO2 levels and that therefore the amount of warming can be attenuated by reducing fossil fuel emissions (Hansen, 1981) (Meinshausen, 2009) (Stocker, 2013) (Callendar, 1938) (Revelle, 1957) (Lacis, 2010) (Hansen, 2016) (IPCC, 2000) (IPCC, 2014). At the root of the proposed AGW causation chain is the ability of fossil fuel emissions to cause measurable changes in atmospheric CO2 levels in excess of natural variability. Evidence for this relationship between emissions and atmospheric CO2 has been presented in terms of carbon dioxide flows derived from climate models (Sarmiento, 1998) (Canadell, 2007) (Bachelet, 2001) (Friedlingstein, 2006) (McGuire, 2001) (Bopp, 2002) (Chen, 2000) and also from global carbon budgets based on the assessment of “net flows”. Net flows are differences between large uncertain flows but with the uncertainty removed by making certain assumptions. Net flows thus circumvent insurmountable measurement problems of large and uncertain gross flows (Massman, 2002) (Aubinet, 2012) (Rosón, 2003) (Giering, 2014) (Smith, 2001) (Lundberg, 1996) (Peltoniemi, 2006) (Ito, 2005) (Haverd, 2013) (Shvidenko, 1996) (Dufrêne, 2005). Net flows and flow information derived from climate models are a form of circular reasoning if they subsume AGW in the process of providing empirical evidence for AGW (Munshi, 2016) (Rodhe, 2000) (Edwards, 1999) and in particular if uncertainty is not given due consideration (Munshi, 2015a). A testable implication of the validity of a carbon budget constructed with net flow assumptions is its core AGW conclusion that changes in atmospheric CO2 are driven by fossil fuel emissions. Measurements of atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa 1958-2016 and worldwide 1967-2015 are used to carry out the test. In a prior study it was shown with Mauna Loa insitu CO2 data 1958-2011 that detrended correlation analysis does not provide evidence that changes in atmospheric CO2 are driven by fossil fuel emissions at an annual time scale (Munshi, 2015). This study is an update of the 2015 paper with extended data availability to 2016 as well as availability of global CO2 measurements.

PART-2: THE DATA

Weekly mean insitu atmospheric CO2 concentrations in parts per million measured at the Mauna Loa
1958-2016 are provided by the Scripps CO2 Program of UC San Diego (Scripps CO2 Program, 2017). Discrete flask measurements of atmospheric CO2 from 104 stations around the world are provided by the Earth System Research Laboratory of the NOAA for various sample periods within the range of 1967-2015 (ESRL, 2017). Twenty three of these stations are selected for this study using a criterion of at least 20 years of data availability. The selected stations, listed in Figure 2, provide a wide geographical distribution. They include Mauna Loa as well as stations in the South Pole, Australia, Canada, Alaska, the lower 48 states of the USA, the South Pacific, China, Central Asia, Europe, and Russia and provide more than 102,500 discrete flask atmospheric CO2 measurements for the period 1967- Figure 1 shows that data availability is sparse prior to 1981 in the ESRL dataset and that atmospheric CO2 rose from about 320 ppm in 1967 to more than 400 ppm in 2015. Data availability is more uniform in the Scripps insitu weekly mean data and they also show rising CO2 levels in the atmosphere from less than 320 ppm in 1958 to more than 400 ppm in 2016. Because of the difference in data availability between the early years and later years in the ESRL data, and also because it is helpful to test the robustness of results with respect to sample period, both datasets are studied for different time spans. The full span of the data for both datasets and the period 1981 to 2015, a period with good data availability that is common to both datasets, are studied. An annual time scale is used as is usual in the study of the impact of emissions on atmospheric CO2 (Bousquet, 2000) (Canadell, 2007) (Gillett, 2013). For the NOAA/ESRL data, a single amalgamated time series of all 102,517 measurements from all twenty three stations is created and the mean and standard deviation of atmospheric CO2 for each year of data are derived and used in a Monte Carlo procedure to simulate the uncertainty in the data. Annual changes in atmospheric CO2 are computed as the corresponding difference in parts per million reported by the measuring stations multiplied by 2.12 to convert ppm to gigatons of carbon equivalent (GTC). Data for fossil fuel emissions in millions of tons of carbon equivalent are provided by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center of the Oak Ridge National Laboratories (CDIAC, 2017). Data are available from 1750 to 2013 provided as megatons of carbon equivalent per year. These values are divided by 1000 and reported in this work as gigatons of carbon equivalent per year (GTC). Emissions for later years are inferred from percentage changes reported by other sources (CarbonBrief, 2016) (The Conversation, 2016) (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2016).

PART-3: METHOD

Correlation between annual changes in atmospheric CO2 and the corresponding fossil fuel emissions are computed both in the source time series and in the detrended series. Uncertainty in the data causes the computed correlations to be somewhat different from one simulation to the next. Ten consecutive simulations are used as a representative sample of the correlation. The standard deviation of correlation is estimated using Bowley’s procedure (Bowley, 1928). Correlation in the source time series can be spurious because it contains both the time scale effect being investigated and an effect of a common drift in time in the two series. For this reason both time series must be detrended to isolate the effect at any given time scale (Podobnik, 2008) (Hu, 2001) (Munshi, 2016). Both source data correlation and detrended correlation are reported and tested for statistical significance. There are three combinations of source and detrended correlations, viz, (1) the source data are correlated and the correlation survives into the detrended series, (2) the source data are correlated but the correlation does not survive into the detrended series, and (3) the source data are not correlated. Only case (1) provides evidence of correlation at the time scale being studied. Case (2) indicates that the correlation in the source data derive mostly from a shared long term drift in time and not at the time scale being studied. Because a positive correlation is necessary to establish the causal relationship between changes in atmospheric CO2 and fossil fuel emissions described in the IPCC carbon budget, statistical significance is established with the one tailed hypothesis test H0: ρ≤0 against HA: ρ>0. Here ρ represents the correlation in the underlying phenomenon that generated the sample data being studied. The maximum false positive error rate is set to α=0.001, much lower than the usual values of α=0.01 to α=05, in accordance with Revised Standards for Statistical Significance (Johnson, 2013) published by the NAS to address an unacceptable rate of irreproducible results in published research (Siegfried, 2010). Since ten comparisons are made for the ten different simulation results for each correlation tested, the probability of finding at least one significant correlation in random data is increased by a factor of ten (Holm, 1979). The maximum false positive error rate is maintained by the requiring multiple rejections of H0 in any given set of ten comparisons rather than applying the so called Bonferroni Adjustment N(Armstrong, 2014) (Moran, 2003) (Garamszegi, 2006). For the annual time scale, emissions is set to EJ for the Jth year and atmospheric accumulation is computed as 2.12*(CJ-CJ-1). Here EJ is fossil fuel and cement emissions in gigatons of carbon equivalent in the Jth year and CJ is average atmospheric CO2 concentration for the Jth year denoted in parts per million. This work represents an update and further study of the relationship between fossil fuel (and cement production) emissions and atmospheric accumulation of carbon dioxide presented in prior studies (Munshi, Responsiveness of Atmospheric CO2 to Anthropogenic Emissions: A Note , 2015) (Munshi, Responsiveness of Atmospheric CO2 to Fossil Fuel Emissions: Part 2, 2016) (Munshi, Some Methodological Issues in Climate Science, 2016). All data and computational details used in this study are available in an online data archive (Munshi, 2017 Atmospheric CO2 paper Data Archive, 2017).

PART-4: DATA ANALYSIS

Annual means of the weekly mean insitu atmospheric CO2 data provided by Scripps are tabulated in Figure 3. The listed variables are MEAN = annual mean of the reported atmospheric carbon dioxide values, STDEV = their standard deviation, N = number of values reported that year, SE = the standard error of the mean, SIM-MEAN = Monte Carlo simulation of the mean that captures uncertainty implied by the standard error, EMISSIONS = fossil fuel and cement carbon dioxide emissions reported as gigatons of carbon equivalent per year (GTC), SIM-INCREASE = annual accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere computed from the SIM-MEAN column as this year’s CO2 level minus previous year’s CO2 level and converted to GTC, DETEMIS = detrended emissions, and DETINCR = detrended annual CO2 accumulation. Values in the two SIM columns will be different for each simulation. Ten different Monte Carlo simulations are used and the correlation between SIM-INCR and EMISSIONS and that between DETINCR and DETEMIS are computed for each simulation and tested for statistical significance at α=0.001 per comparison. Results for the time span of 1958-2016 and time scale of one year are tabulated in Figure 4 where CORR refers to the correlation between the source data (SIM-INCREASE and EMISSIONS) and DETCORR to the detrended correlation between DETINCR and DETEMIS. The eleven rows in the Table represent eleven different simulations.

The CORR columns in Figure 4 show strong statistically significant correlations for the source data in all eleven simulations. The simulations capture the uncertainty in annual mean CO2 accumulation. The null hypothesis H0: ρ≤0 is rejected in all eleven simulations. At the same time the DETCORR columns show a complete failure to reject H0 for detrended correlations. A graphical representation of these results appears in Figure 5. The combination of a correlation in the source data and absence of correlation at a given time scale in the detrended series indicates that the correlation in the source data derives from a shared long term drift in time and not from a relationship between their annual fluctuations net of long term trend. These results show that the data do not provide evidence that EMISSIONS and SIM-INCREASE are related at an annual time scale. This result is consistent with the findings in prior works (Munshi, 2015) and inconsistent with the IPCC carbon budget and the AGW hypothesis which assume that observed increases in atmospheric CO2 derive from fossil fuel emissions (Le Quéré, 2009) (Canadell, 2007) (Solomon, 2009) (Hansen, 1981) (IPCC, 2000) (IPCC, 2014).

We now look at the same data for two additional time spans for ease of comparison with the dataset of global flask CO2 measurements. Figures 6&7 summarize the results for the time span 1967-2015 and Figures 8&9 show results for the span 1981-2015. The time scale is annual in both cases. The time for emissions to become well mixed in the atmosphere is thought to be one year (Bousquet, 2000).

For the span 1967-2015 (Figures 6&7), strong evidence of correlation is found in the source data but no correlation can be detected in the detrended series. As we did for the full span 1958-2015, we conclude that correlation in the source data derives from long term trends and not from correspondence in year to year fluctuations. Somewhat different results are seen for the span 1981-2015 (Figures 8&9). No statistically significant correlation is found in the detrended series or in the source data. These data also fail to provide evidence in support of the IPCC carbon budget that relates changes in atmospheric CO2 to fossil fuel emissions at an annual time scale.

PART-5: 2017 UPDATE

The results of detrended correlation analysis of global flask CO2 measurements for the full span of the data 1967-2015 are summarized in Figures 11&12. As in Figures 8&9, we find that although the correlation in the source data appears to be higher than that in the detrended series, no statistically significant correlation is found in either series at the maximum false positive error rate of α=0.001 per comparison used in this study. However, for the shorter time span of 1981-2015 (Figures 13&14) where data availability is more uniform across the study period (Figure 1), the source data correlations are much higher and here we see the results similar to those depicted in Figures 4&5 (Mauna Loa 1958- 2016) and Figures 6&7 (Mauna Loa 1967-2015) with a strong correlations in the source data that goes away when the data are detrended.

In all of the above cases, the absence of correlation in the detrended series fails to provide empirical support for the usual carbon budget hypothesis that emissions drive changes in atmospheric CO2. In cases where the a correlation is found in the source data, its absence in the detrended series indicates that the source data correlation derives from a shared drift in time and not from shared fluctuations at the specified time scale that is prerequisite to a causation hypothesis (Podobnik, 2008) (Chatfield, 1989). These results are consistent with findings in prior works that also found no empirical evidence that changes in atmospheric CO2 are driven by fossil fuel emissions at an annual time scale (Munshi, 2015) (Munshi, 2016). All data and computational details are available in a data archive (Munshi, 2017).

PART-6: SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

A key relationship in the theory of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is that between annual fossil fuel emissions and annual changes in atmospheric CO2. The proposed causation sequence is that annual fossil fuel emissions cause annual changes in atmospheric CO2 which in turn intensifies the atmosphere’s heat trapping property. It is concluded that global warming is due to changes in atmospheric composition attributed to human activity and is therefore a human creation and that therefore we must reduce or eliminate fossil fuel emissions to avoid climate catastrophe (Parmesan, 2003) (Stern, 2007) (IPCC, 2014) (Flannery, 2006) (Allen, 2009) (Gillett, 2013) (Meinshausen, 2009) (Canadell, 2007) (Solomon, 2009) (Stocker, 2013) (Rogelj, 2016).

A testable implication of the proposed causation sequence is that annual changes in atmospheric CO2 must be related to annual fossil fuel emissions at an annual time scale. This work is a test of this hypothesis. We find that detrended correlation analysis of annual emissions and annual changes in atmospheric CO2 does not support the anthropogenic global warming hypothesis because no evidence is found that changes in atmospheric CO2 are related to fossil fuel emissions at an annual time scale. These results are consistent with prior works that found no evidence to relate the rate of warming to the rate of emissions (Munshi, The Correlation between Emissions and Warming in the CET, 2017) (Munshi, Long Term Temperature Trends in Daily Station Data: Australia, 2017) (Munshi, Generational Fossil Fuel Emissions and Generational Warming: A Note, 2016) (Munshi, Decadal Fossil Fuel Emissions and Decadal Warming: A Note, 2015) (Munshi, Effective Sample Size of the Cumulative Values of a Time Series, 2016) (Munshi, The Spuriousness of Correlations between Cumulative Values, 2016).

IT IS NOTED THAT CLIMATE SCIENCE HAS PROPOSED AN ALTERNATIVE THEORY THAT DOES NOT REQUIRE THE CORRELATION WE TESTED ABOVE. THE ALTERNATIVE THEORY, CALLED THE TCRE, HOLDS THAT GLOBAL MEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS PROPORTIONAL TO CUMULATIVE EMISSIONS AND THEREFORE RESPONSIVNESS OF ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION TO EMISSIONS TESTED ABOVE IS NOT REQUIRED.

HOWEVER, THERE IS A SERIOUS FLAW IN THE TCRE IN TERMS OF A MATHEMATICAL INCONSISTENCY. THE THEORY OF THE GREENOUSE EFFECT OF CO2 IMPLIES THAT GLOBAL MEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE (GMST) IS A LOGARITHMIC FUNCTION OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION THAT DERIVES FROM CUMULATIVE EMISSIONS BUT THE NEW TCRE HOLDS THAT THE RELATIONSHIP IS NOT LOGARITHMIC BUT LINEAR. THIS INCONSISTENCY MAKES IT IMPOSSIBLE FOR THE TCRE AND THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT TO DESCRIBE THE SAME PHYSICAL PHENOMENON. THE MATHEMATICAL INCONSISTENCY ISSUE IS DESCRIBED IN A RELATED POST:

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/08/26/a-mathematical-inconsistency/

Tip of the Week: What's with all the inconsistency? | Change ...

THE OTHER PROBLEM WITH THE TCRE IS THAT A TIME SERIES OF THE CUMULATIVE VALUES OF ANOTHER TIME SERIES CONTAINS NEITHER TIME SCALE NOR DEGREES OF FREEDOM.

CITATIONS: AVAILABLE IN THE SOURCE DOCUMENT AT SSRN LINKED ABOVE



  • Ruben Leon: Climate change adaption? The Thames and the Rhine were one river emptying into the Celtic Sea before the "real" climate change started 10,000+ year
  • chaamjamal: Thank you for your comment, sir.
  • Anders Rasmusson: Anders Rasmusson : “..... the difference between them is the Natural Outlet flow from the atmosphere into the Nature.“ The difference between t