Thongchai Thailand

Author Archive

The Eemian Interglacial | Thongchai Thailand

QUESTION:

How will we reach climate protection goals without spoiling our human and basic rights and needs?

ANSWER:

We Homo Sapiens, AKA Modern Humans, have been through two glaciation cycles and two interglacials. This interglacial, the Holocene, is our second interglacial and the current warming cycle is our fourth warming cycle of the Holocene. Before the Holocene we had survived the more intense interglacial, the Eemian. Our prior interglacial, the Eemian, had much more intense warming cycles that had caused the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to collapse and that collapse still serves the climate science imagination that it just has to happen again in the Holocene but it hasn’t yet more than 8,000 years into the Holocene. That the current warming cycle will do us in is a fear that the climate movement needs so they can push their anti fossil fuel activism but that imagination is grossly inconsistent with historical data. Climate science needs fear appeal to push their activism needs but the fear proposed is inconsistent with history.

Please see

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/06/27/modern-humans-climate-change/

EXCERPT

Image result for the paleolithic era of humans
PALEOLITHIC HUMANS

QUESTION:

Will global warming climate change lead to disasters? What disasters can happen if it leads to disasters?

ANSWER:

That is what climate science has been saying all along, that there will be disasters, but so far their FOREcasts of disaster, as for example an ice free Arctic, have all failed and that has been the real disaster. So now all we have to go on is their HINDcasts called Event Attribution. The deniers have abandoned the movement but there are still plenty of people hanging on with full confidence in climate doomology. Maybe we humans have an inner need for doom or it could just be our superstitious nature I guess.

LINKS TO RELATED POSTS

RELATED POST#1: A BRIEF HISTORY OF CLIMATE FEAROLOGY

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/04/13/the-science-of-climate-science-is-fear/

RELATED POST#2: THE SUPERSTITION AND CONFIRMATION BIAS OF THE HUMANS

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/03/confirmationbias/


Entangled Minds: Witch burning

QUESTION: Would letting existing forests reclaim vast swathes of the Earth be more effective for the climate rather than planting trillions of trees?

ANSWER: The tree option for climate action is flawed in multiple ways. For one thing there isn’t enough land on earth to make a meaningful difference in global photosynthesis. Also, the theory of anthropogenic global warming is not a carbon cycle thing but very specifically, a fossil fuel thing. If you believe the climate scientists do what they say and stop burning fossil fuels. If you don’t believe them tell them to go hug themselves. It serves no purpose to play silly carbon cycle games like planting trees or bragging about “NET zero” emissions that isn’t really zero emissions. The flaws in the carbon cycle intervention climate action idea are desribed in a related post linked below.

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/05/20/the-power-of-trees/

Planet Releaf – Planting One Million Trees

QUESTION; What is the single best way to fix the climate crisis?

ANSWER: What climate science says is that global warming is a creation of fossil fuel emissions and that it will stop if we stop burning fossil fuels. End of story. That’s all there is to it.

But perhaps this simple message is a little too boring here in the quora discussions. So we have to carry out some kind of touchy feely eco wacko discussion to come up with some kind of touchy feely eco wacko solution for climate change which to us is some kind of touchy feely eco wacko environmentalism issue.

RELATED POST ON THE FOSSIL FUEL ISSUE IN CLIMATE CHANGE

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/06/19/vegandiet/

QUESTION: HOW CAN WE PROTECT OUR ENVIRONMENTS FROM NATURAL DISASTERS?

ANSWER: Environmentalism started out as a way to improve human welfare by humans managing their ENVIRON (French for surroundings). In the Biblical cultures of the Global North, this idea soon became corrupted by GENESIS which says that humans have dominion over nature with the implication that humans are not part of nature but its manager and caretaker. The specific interpretation of Genesis in environmentalism is that humans must protect nature from the humans. This grotesque and arrogant tree hugger principle of environmentalism is expressed in the Bambi Principle. LINK TO BAMBI POST: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/15/the-bambi-principle/

What we see in this question is that environmentalism contains a further interpretation of the Bambi Principle and it implies that humans as caretakers of nature must also protect nature from nature itself. The human ego knows no bounds thanks to Genesis and Bambi. How far the termites have spread and how long and well they have dined.

LINK TO YOUTUBE VIDEO: https://youtu.be/lReB3GUhKe4

LINK TO YOUTUBE VIDEO: https://youtu.be/lReB3GUhKe4

Derrick Jensen

AN ASSESSMENT OF RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGY BY ENVIRONMENTALIST DERRICK JENSEN IN HIS BOOK “BRIGHT GREEN LIES”.

A section of the book BRIGHT GREEN LIES by Derrick Jensen is dedicated to debunking renewable systems. Solar, wind, tidal and geoengineering projects all require gigantic convoys of tax dollars, while providing no real reduction in greenhouse gases over fossil fuelsFor one thing, all the mining, manufacturing, transporting, assembling and maintaining of these systems add tremendously to the environmental toll. Wind and solar are not dependable sources. And environmentalists lie about how they are taking over in some economies. Their math is bogus, cherry-picking short periods of otherwise slack demand on a sunny or windy off-day to report that renewables carried the burden almost entirely on their own. They then attribute dominance of renewables to the entire country. This, the book says, is how Germany got its reputation in wind and solar. The truth is much more pathetic. Environmentalists have learned to game the system. There is an entire chapter on dams and hydropower, long considered the poster child for renewables and sustainables. The authors show how the dams wreak havoc with animals, birds, fish and insects as well as topsoil and air. The interruption of water flows prevents fish from doing what they must to contribute to the balance, with hundreds of other creatures dependent on them. Silts no longer flow downstream. Flooding no longer feeds the forests, meadows and plains. Species like the huge variety of salmon all over the world, now face extinction thanks to dams. The huge amount of natural resources commandeered to build and maintain the dams makes them far from benign players in the carbon buildup. Not to mention that they are responsible for nearly a quarter of the methane that escapes into the atmosphere from manmade sources. As with every method and means they explore, the chapter ends with the question – call this sustainable? The same story applies in the chapters on wind and solar. It’s hard to tell which one is worse. They consume vast amounts of concrete, steel and rare earths. They are hugely expensive and are only competitive thanks to massive subsidies at every step. They kill endangered species. They are dependent on weather and so are not at all dependable sources of energy. There are scary stats to ponder: Scotland cleared 17,000 acres of 14 million trees to install wind energy systems. Was this a good trade? Not for the first time, the authors show that mathematically, there just isn’t enough space, money or resources to make the whole civilization run on renewables. They say it would take 80 billion metric tons of extraction to effect the switch. The planet would basically have to devote everything it produces for years to come to pull off this conversion. And it wouldn’t be worth it because ultimately, renewables provide a net-zero reduction in carbon emissions per dollar. Not net zero as in carbon reduction, but net zero difference from fossil fuels. It’s an environmental con game for the authors.

Endgame Volume 1: The Problem of Civilization by Derrick Jensen (books  forum at permies)

THIS POST IS A PRESENATION OF THE STUDY OF GLOBAL WARMING HIATUS EVENTS FOUND IN THE CLIMATE DENIAL COMMUNITY. A GLOBAL WARMING HIATUS EVENT IS IDENTIFIED IF A PERIOD OF TIME IS FOUND WHERE THERE IS NO TREND IN GLOBAL MEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE AS FOR EXAMPLE THE UAH LOWER TROPOSPHERE TEMPERATURE DATA. THE MOST RECENT HIATUS FOUND IS 6 YEARS AND 6 MONTHS ENDING IN JULY 2021. OTHER RECENT GLOBAL WARMING HIATUS EVENTS ARE LISTED IN THE TABLE BELOW WHERE HIATUS EVENTS ARE IDENTIFIED IN BOTH UAH AND HADCRU TEMPERATURE DATA.

A LONGER HISTORY OF SUCH GLOBAL WARMING PAUSE EVENTS IS PRESENTED AS IN THE CHART BELOW

THE GLOBAL WARMING DATA PRESENTED ABOVE ARE GLOBAL MEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE. AN ADDITIONAL LINE OF INVESTIGTION IN GLOBAL WARMING HIATUS STUDIES PRESENTS NON GLOBAL LOCAL TEMPERATURE DATA OVER LONGER TIME PERIODS AS IN THE DATA FOR GLASGOW, SCOTLAND SHOWN BELOW WHERE WE FIND THAT THERE HAS BEEN ABSOLUTELY NO WARMING IN GLASGOW FOR THE LAST 22 YEARS.

CRITICAL COMMENTARY

ITEM#1: THE INTERNAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY ISSUE: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/07/16/the-internal-variability-issue/

THE GLOBAL WARMING HIATUS FOUND IN GLASGOW DOES NOT RELATE TO GLOBAL MEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE. THE LOCAL NATURE OF THIS DATA MAKES IT IMPOSSIBLE TO INTERPRET THE DATA IN TERMS OF GLOBAL WARMING. AS EXPLAINED IN THE RELATED POST LINKED ABOVE, INTERNAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY IS UNDERSTOOD SEPARATELY FROM THE GLOBAL WARMING ISSUE.

ITEM#2: SHORT TERM RANDOM VARIABILITY OF TEMPERATURE DATA: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/01/11/global-warming-dec2020/

IN THIS RELATED POST WE FIND THAT LONG TERM GLOBAL WARMING TRENDS IN UAH LOWER TROPOSPHERE GLOBAL MEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE ARE NOT SUSTAINED ACROSS THE TIME SPAN AT ALL TIME SCALES BUT THAT LONG TERM SUSTAINED WARMING TRENDS AT TIME SCALES OF 30 YEARS OR MORE CONSIST OF CHAOTIC CYCLES OF WARMING, COOLING, AND NO TREND AT DECADAL AND SHORTER TIME SCALES. THESE DATA IMPLY THAT GLOBAL WARMING SHOULD BE UNDERSTOOD AT LONGER TIME SCALES THAN THE ONES PRESENTED IN THE HIATUS STUDY. A SAMPLE CHART IS PRESENTED BELOW.

GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE

THIS BEHAVIOR OF GMST IS ALSO FOUND IN THE THEORY OF AGW WHICH REFERS TO LONG TERM TRENDS OF 30 YEARS OR MORE IN GLOBAL MEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE. IT IS NOTED THAT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE ALARMS OF CLIMATE SCIENCE AS EVIDENCE OF AGW ARE INCONSISTENT WITH THIS ASPECT OF AGW THEORY.

IN YET ANOTHER BLOG WE FIND THE CHART ABOVE WITH THE CLAIM THAT THE CHART SHOWS THAT TEMPERATURES ARE BACK WITHIN THE RANGE SEEN 20 YEARS AGO AND THAT THEREFORE THE HIATUS IN GLOBAL TEMPERATURE RISE APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED. WE NOTE IN THE CHART THAT A 13-MONTH MOVING AVERAGE TEMPERATURE HAS DECLINED TO A LOW VALUE OVER A 3-YEAR PERIOD. AS IN THE FIRST CASE PRESENTED ABOVE, THE TIME SCALE OF THE STUDY IS INSUFFICIENT TO INTERPRET THE RESULTS IN TERMS OF GLOBAL WARMING THAT WORKS ON MUCH LONGER TIME SCALES.

A MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THIS BLOG IS PROVIDED IN A RELATED POST: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/06/16/new-japanese-climate-change-paper/

AN IMAGE OF THE THE BLOG IN QUESTION APPEARS BELOW

3 Years Ago, We All Laughed at James Inhofe's Snowball. The Joke Was on Us.  – Mother Jones

IN HIS TED LECTURE ON CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE SCIENTIST PATRICK BELMONT DESCRIBES THE SILLINESS OF CLIMATE DENIALISM BY CITING THE COMICAL JIM INHOFE SNOWBALL AFFAIR OF 2015 AS FOLLOWS:

BY 2015 WE WERE SWIMMING IN OCEANS OF DATA FROM METEOROLOGICAL STATIONS ALL AROUND THE WORLD. We collected thousands of sediment cores from lakes and ice cores from glaciers that allows us to re-construct what past climates have been like. And they are all telling us how much outside of normal conditions we were. What these data tell us is that this is no natural cycle. We are way outside of natural conditions. We had little gadgets we could use to measure CO2 coming out of individual leaves on trees at the scale of entire cities and whole continents. And all of this information was feeding into some of the most sophisticated computer models ever created to help us predict what future climate scenarios will look like. DESPITE THIS MOUNTAIN OF INFORMATION: that were all pointing in the same direction and screaming at us about what a disaster we had created, in February of 2015 Jim Inhofe brought a snowball on to the floor of the US Senate as evidence that climate change was just a hoax. He brought a snowball. This was his attempt to undermine a century and a half of science. This was his response to the recent observation that 2014 had been the hottest year on record. Well guess what? 2015 was even hotter as was 2016 and 2017 and 2018 and 2019 and 2020. They were all hotter!!! Inhoffe was the definition of a climate change denier at that time. Some call these people skeptics. I don’t think so. Skeptics substantive arguments to the debate. Inhoffe and the other deniers responded to all the overwhelming science. They’re just saying nyaaa!! And it worked! It was enough to continue to delay action. And we as a society, we just let that go.WE LET THAT GO! …. WE LET THAT GO!

Patrick Belmont: Redefining Climate Change Denial | TED Talk
CLIMATE SCIENTIST PATRICK BELMONT

CRITICAL COMMENTARY

(1): JIM INHOFE: In the year 2000, the science of climate science had taken the position that snow was disappearing due to climate change and that our children won’t know what snow is. In their words … “Snow is starting to disappear from our lives. Sledges, snowmen, snowballs and the excitement of waking to find that the stuff has settled outside are all a rapidly diminishing part of Britain’s culture, as warmer winters – which scientists are attributing to global climate change – produce not only fewer white Christmases, but fewer white Januaries and Februaries … Global warming, the heating of the atmosphere by increased amounts of industrial gases, is now accepted as a reality by the international community … According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit of the University of East Anglia, within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”. “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is. The comical Jim Inhofe response as a comical chapter in climate denial must be understood in the context of this comical chapter in climate science that was apparently based on mountains of data all pointing in the same direction.

(2): HOTTEST YEAR: It is proposed that the observation that 2014 was the hottest year on record and that the follosing six years 2015 to 2020 were also the hottest years on record provides all the empirical evidence needed for certainty beyond all doubt that the theory of anthropogenic global warming proposed by climate science is correct beyond all doubt and that therefore to be a denier like Inhofe and to argue against the science is comical foolishness. This argument, intended to defend science, is itself unscientific and it also violates climate science itself. According to climate science, only long term trends in global mean surface temperarure longer than 30 years have an interpretation in terms of AGW. Therefore “hottest year on record” is an event and not a long term trends and therefore it must be understood as internal climate variability that has no AGW interpretation. It is an oddity of climate science that this kind of science denial is actually seen in climate science itself whenever the denial serves their needs of the moment. It should also be mentioned that “the record” is a reference to the instrumental record, a rather brief period and irrelevant in the context of the warming and cooling cycles of the Holocene not to mention the previous interglacial the Eemian.

Global Warming Hysteria: 2000—English Children Will Not Know Snow—2010:  Oops, Nevermind! | Wesley J. Smith | First Things
THE UNIVERSITY OF EAST ANGLIA

At the Tokyo 2020 Olympics, each day records are being set by the dozen. Globally, a different set of records are making history but for the wrong reasons. The number of so-called “planetary vital signs” hitting new highs and lows, despite the restraint to human activity from the pandemic in the past year, were highlighted in a paper published earlier this week that tracked a set of various indicators related to climate change. Glaciers have been melting at record pace; sea levels are at an all-time high, and concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide in the Earth’s atmosphere have never been so dense, the data show. “I’m concerned. I’m alarmed. I feel like it’s important for people to see these data together,” said William J. Ripple, a professor of ecology at Oregon State University and co-author. “My conclusion is that we are mostly doing business as usual, with the transient interruption of the Covid-19 pandemic . . . but we’re [already] getting back to setting new record highs.” The Ripple paper’s release comes as the scale and frequency of recent weather events leads some scientists to conclude that global warming is to blame. Among the indicators are the anomalies for land and sea surface temperatures, which reached record highs in certain areas in 2020. At the same time as oceans warmed to peak temperatures, according to the tracking data, their acidity was at the highest level recorded in seven years. Combined, these effects are known to bleach warm-water coral reefs. And there are fears the trend in these conditions could soon reach a “tipping point” — beyond which, the destruction caused would be difficult to reverse.

One of scientists’ key concerns, highlighted in the paper, was the lack of lasting impact the Covid-19 pandemic had accumulated on the “vital” indicators. “Huge behavioural changes by humans in reducing energy consumption [as a result of the pandemic] had such a small effect,” Ripple explained. “We need to be thinking about big transformative change at this stage . . . yet, we are still in a fossil fuel society.” Energy consumption from fossil fuel sources fell as the pandemic brought industry and services near to a standstill in 2020. Yet global energy use originating from coal power is expected to reach above pre-pandemic levels this year, the forecasts suggests, while energy consumption from oil and natural gas sources will rebound. As many as 18 of the 31 indicators being tracked by the group of scientists have reached recent extremes. Yet not all can be viewed negatively — some provide a glimmer of hope. Wind and solar energy use is expected to be up by a third this year, from 2019 levels, for example. Recommended Climate change Timeline of temperature extremes reveals global pattern of record highs The value of global subsidies on fossil fuels dropped by more than 40 per cent in 2020, compared with the previous year. And, divestments of fossil fuel assets by pension funds, educational institutions, governments and other organisations continued to rise — up to $14tn in 2020 from $11.5tn the previous year. But, the authors conclude, the scale of climate action presently is not enough to reverse key trends of concern. “We’re in a climate emergency . . . a very dangerous climate emergency,” Ripple says.At this point it’s important that we do things that will have rapid effects. OMG! OMG!

LINK TO SOURCE: https://www.ft.com/content/a52f32ea-c9ed-4bcd-8eef-8eb9ca8da2b1

William Ripple. PhD: says we can Save The Planet by eating a plant-based  diet. - YouTube

WHAT THE CITED PAPER BY WILLIAM J RIPPLE SAYS

Ripple, William J., et al. “World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency 2021.” BioScience:

In 2019, Ripple and colleagues (2020) warned of untold suffering and declared a climate emergency together with more than 11,000 scientist signatories from 153 countries. They presented graphs of planetary vital signs indicating very troubling trends, along with little progress by humanity to address climate change. On the basis of these data and scientists’ moral obligation to “clearly warn humanity of any catastrophic threat,” they called for transformative change. Since the article’s publication, more than 2,800 additional scientists have signed that declaration of a climate emergency (see supplemental file S1 for the current signatory list); in addition, 1,990 jurisdictions in 34 countries have now formally declared or recognized a climate emergency (figure 1p). But, at the same time, there has been an unprecedented surge in climate-related disasters since 2019, including devastating flooding in South America and Southeast Asia, record shattering heat waves and wildfires in Australia and the Western United States, an extraordinary Atlantic hurricane season, and devastating cyclones in Africa, South Asia, and the West Pacific (see supplemental file S2 for attribution information). There is also mounting evidence that we are nearing or have already crossed tipping points associated with critical parts of the Earth system, including the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, warm-water coral reefs, and the Amazon rainforest (supplemental file S2). Given these alarming developments, we need short, frequent, and easily accessible updates on the climate emergency.

Time series of climate-related global human activities. In panels (a), (d), (e), (i), and (m), the most recent data point(s) are a projection or preliminary estimate (see the supplemental material); in panel (f), tree cover loss does not account for forest gain and includes loss due to any cause. With the exception of panel (p), data obtained since the publication of Ripple and colleagues (2020) are shown in red. In panel (h), hydroelectricity and nuclear energy are shown in figure S1. Sources and additional details about each variable are provided in the supplemental material. Complete time series are shown in supplemental figure S2.

Time series of climate-related global human activities. In panels (a), (d), (e), (i), and (m), the most recent data point(s) are a projection or preliminary estimate (see the supplemental material); in panel (f), tree cover loss does not account for forest gain and includes loss due to any cause. With the exception of panel (p), data obtained since the publication of Ripple and colleagues (2020) are shown in red. In panel (h), hydroelectricity and nuclear energy are shown in figure S1. Sources and additional details about each variable are provided in the supplemental material. Complete time series are shown in supplemental figure S2. Recent trends in planetary vital signs In the present article, we investigate recent changes in planetary vital signs since the publication of Ripple and colleagues (2020). Out of the 31 variables that we track, we found that 18 are at new all-time record lows or highs (supplemental table S1). Below are noteworthy recent patterns in potential climate drivers (figure 1) and impacts (figure 2): Food. For the first time, world ruminant livestock numbers soared past 4 billion, which represents much more mass than all humans and wild mammals combined (figure 1c). However, recent per capita meat production (figure 1d), declined by about 5.7% (2.9 kilograms per person) between 2018 and 2020, likely because of an outbreak of African swine fever in China that reduced the pork supply. Future declines in meat consumption and production will probably not happen until there is a general shift to plant-based diets or increases in the use of meat analogs (substitutes), which are growing in popularity and projected to be worth US$3.5 billion globally by 2026 (MarketsandMarkets 2020). Amazon forest. The Brazilian Amazon annual forest loss rate increased in 2019 and 2020, reaching a 12-year high of 1.11 million hectares destroyed (figure 1g). The increase was likely because of weakening deforestation enforcement triggering a sharp spike in illegal land clearing for cattle and soy farming (Junior et al. 2021). Forest degradation due to fires, drought, logging, and fragmentation has caused this region to act as a carbon source rather than a carbon sink (Qin et al. 2021). Climate economics. Global gross domestic product dropped by 3.6% in 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, but it is now projected to be at an all-time high (figure 1e). There was a strong increase in fossil fuel divestment; it increased by US$6.5 trillion between 2018 and 2020 (figure 1j), while, at the same time, fossil fuel subsidies dropped to a record low of US$181 billion in 2020—a 42% decline from 2019 levels—likely because of reduced energy use and prices (figure 1o). The percentage of greenhouse gas emissions covered by carbon pricing is projected to increase from 14.4% to 23.2% between 2018 and 2021 (figure 1m). Much of this increase is due to a proposed carbon pricing scheme by China, which is still rapidly building many coal plants and is now responsible for more emissions than the entire developed world (supplemental table S2; Rhodium Group 2021). The global emissions-weighted average price per tonne of carbon dioxide has remained too low (US$15.49 as of 2020), and it would need to increase severalfold to be highly effective in curbing fossil fuel use (figure 1n). Energy use. Likely because of the COVID-19 pandemic, fossil fuel energy consumption has decreased since 2019, along with carbon dioxide emissions, per capita emissions of carbon dioxide, and air transport (figure 1h, 1i, 1k, 1l). However, these declines appear to be transient in that 2021 projected estimates show all of these variables significantly rising again. Conversely, solar and wind power consumption increased by 57% between 2018 and 2021, but it is still roughly 19 times lower than fossil fuel consumption (figure 1h). The number of air transport passengers dropped by a sizable 59% in 2020 because of COVID-19, but more than a third of this loss is projected to be recovered in 2021 (figure 1i). Greenhouse gases and temperature. Three important greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, all set new year-to-date records for atmospheric concentrations in both 2020 and 2021 (figure 2a–2c). In April 2021, carbon dioxide concentration reached 416 parts per million, the highest monthly global average concentration ever recorded. The year 2020 was the second hottest year on record, and all five of the hottest years on record have occurred since 2015 (figures 2d and S3d). Melting ice. Greenland and Antarctica recently showed new year-to-date all-time record low levels of ice mass (figure 2f, 2g). In 2020, the minimum summer Arctic sea ice was at its second smallest extent on record, and glacier thickness also set a new all-time low (figure 2e, 2h). Glaciers are melting much faster than previously believed; they are losing 31% more snow and ice per year than they did just 15 years ago (Hugonnet et al. 2021). Ocean changes. Both ocean heat content and sea level set new records (figure 2i, 2k). Ocean pH reached its second lowest year-to-date average value on record, just behind 2012 (figure 2j). This is troubling given that coral resilience to ocean acidification is likely reduced by thermal stress and more than 500 million people depend on coral reefs for food, tourism, or tropical storm surge protection.

Time series of climate-related responses. Data obtained before and after the publication of Ripple and colleagues (2020) are shown in gray and red respectively. For variables with relatively high variability, local regression trend lines are shown in black. The variables were measured at various frequencies (e.g., annual, monthly, weekly). The labels on the x-axis correspond to midpoints of years. Sources and additional details about each variable are provided in the supplemental material. Complete time series are shown in supplemental figure S3.

Time series of climate-related responses. Data obtained before and after the publication of Ripple and colleagues (2020) are shown in gray and red respectively. For variables with relatively high variability, local regression trend lines are shown in black. The variables were measured at various frequencies (e.g., annual, monthly, weekly). The labels on the x-axis correspond to midpoints of years. Sources and additional details about each variable are provided in the supplemental material. The updated planetary vital signs we present (figures 1 and 2) largely reflect the consequences of unrelenting business as usual. Even the effects of the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic on some climate-related human activities (figure 1d, 1e, 1h, 1i, 1k, 1l) were short lived. A major lesson from COVID-19 is that even colossally decreased transportation and consumption are not nearly enough and that, instead, transformational system changes are required, and they must rise above politics. Despite positive intentions to “build back better” by directing COVID-19 recovery investments toward green policies, only 17% of such funds have been allocated to a green recovery as of 5 March 2021 (OECD 2021). Given the impacts we are seeing at roughly 1.25 degrees Celsius (°C) warming, combined with the many reinforcing feedback loops and potential tipping points, massive-scale climate action is urgently needed. The remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C was recently estimated to have a 17% chance of being negative, indicating that we may already have lost the opportunity to limit warming to this level without overshoot or risky geoengineering (Matthews et al. 2021). Because of the limited time available, priorities must shift toward immediate and drastic reductions in dangerous short-lived greenhouse gases, especially methane. We need to stop regarding the climate emergency as a stand-alone environmental problem. Global heating, although ruinous, is not the sole symptom of our present struggling Earth system but is only one of the many facets of the accelerating environmental crisis. Policies to alleviate the climate crisis or any of the other threatened planetary boundary transgressions should not be focused on symptom relief but on addressing their root cause: the overexploitation of the Earth (Rockström et al. 2009). For example, by halting the unsustainable exploitation of natural habitats (described below), we can simultaneously reduce zoonotic disease transmission risks, conserve biodiversity, and protect carbon stocks (IPBES 2020). So long as humanity’s pressure on the Earth system continues, attempted remedies can only redistribute this pressure. To address this fundamental overexploitation, we echo the call made by Ripple and colleagues (2020) to change course in six areas: (1) energy, eliminating fossil fuels and shifting to renewables; (2) short-lived air pollutants, slashing black carbon (soot), methane, and hydrofluorocarbons; (3) nature, restoring and permanently protecting Earth’s ecosystems to store and accumulate carbon and restore biodiversity; (4) food, switching to mostly plant-based diets, reducing food waste, and improving cropping practices; (5) economy, moving from indefinite GDP growth and overconsumption by the wealthy to ecological economics and a circular economy, in which prices reflect the full environmental costs of goods and services; and (6) human population, stabilizing and gradually reducing the population by providing voluntary family planning and supporting education and rights for all girls and young women, which has been proven to lower fertility rates (Wolf et al. 2021). All transformative climate action should focus on social justice for all by prioritizing basic human needs and reducing inequality. As one prerequisite for this action, climate change education should be included in school core curriculums globally. Overall, this would result in higher awareness of the climate emergency while empowering learners to take action (see supplemental file. Given the intensifying urgency and insufficient efforts to tackle the climate crisis at scale internationally, progress on the six above steps is imperative. In addition, we call for a three-pronged near-term policy approach of (1) a global implementation of a significant carbon price (energy and economy), (2) a global phase-out and eventual permanent ban of fossil fuels (energy), and (3) the development of strategic climate reserves to strictly protect and restore natural carbon sinks and biodiversity throughout the world (nature). The global minimum carbon price should cover all forms of greenhouse gases and as many sectors as possible, including forestry and agriculture (food). A higher carbon price will be needed to trigger transformative change in harder to decarbonize sectors (Sharpe and Lenton 2021). It should be linked to a socially just green climate fund to finance climate mitigation and adaptation policies in the Global South (Cramton et al. 2017). The phaseout of fossil fuels should be similarly comprehensive and must ultimately prohibit fossil fuel–related exploration, production, and infrastructure development (Green 2018). Effective strategic climate reserves provide protection and restoration—which offers enormous cobenefits for biodiversity, ecosystem function, and human wellbeing—and require specific targets that cover carbon-rich terrestrial and marine ecosystems (e.g., forests, wetlands, seagrass, mangroves). Implementing these three policies soon will help ensure the long-term sustainability of human civilization and give future generations the opportunity to thrive.

CONCLUSION: On the basis of recent trends in planetary vital signs, we reaffirm the climate emergency declaration and again call for transformative change, which is needed now more than ever to protect life on Earth and remain within as many planetary boundaries as possible. The speed of change is essential, and new climate policies should be part of COVID-19 recovery plans. We must now join together as a global community with a shared sense of urgency, cooperation, and equity.

CRITICAL COMMENTARY: What we learn from this distinguished professor at Oregon State University is that atmospheric CO2, CH4, N20 & surface temperature are rising, that polar ice is melting, that ocean heat content is rising, that ocean pH is falling, that sea level is rising, and that the total area burned with forest fires in the USA is rising while at the same time the human condition is changing with population rising, fertility rate falling, ruminant feedstock and per capita meat production are rising, global GDP is rising, global tree cover is rising, the Amazon lungs of the earth is burning, total energy consumption by humans is going up, and all these observed changes are indicaors of the coming collapse of the earth system that sustains life. Yet, this conclusion is not supported by the data presented. In fact what we see in this analysis is not that the data support the conclusions but that the agenda of the researcher that has assumed the conclusions is looking for support in the data. This reverse logic of this research paper is endemic in climatee science and the fallacious source of our fear of global warming.

In that context we note that this is not the first global warming of the humans. We modern humans (homo sapiens) have gone through two glaciation cycles and through the previous interglacial, the Eemian, that even climate change activists and climate scientists admit was much much more severe than our current Holocene interglacial that gave rise to climate change fearology. It should also be mentioned that the current warming cycle of the Holocene is not the only warming cycle of the Holocene but rather just one of many warming and cooling cycles at millennial and centennial time scales the most intense of which was the first warming cycle, the Holocene Climate Optimum, that had created human civilization from the cannibalistic animals we were before the Holocene Climate Optimum global warming came along and brought our animal ancestors out of their caves. More to the point, this warming cycle is not the only warming cycle of the Holocene. Scientists who claim to understand the known warming and cooling cycles of interglacials should explain all nine of these cycles and not pick just one of them to explain. That kind of science is not science but superstition driven by activism needs and confirmation bias. Climate science is best understood as the unrequited anti fossil fuel activism of the 1960s hippie movement where the environmental concerns against fossil fuels were solved by the EPA and left a vaccuum in the underlying movement against fossil fuels. The climate movement of our time is best understood as a resurrection of the anti fossil fuel movement with a new argument against fossil fuels that was not addressed by the EPA.

RELATED POST: THE HISTORY OF THE HUMANS AND GLOBAL WARMING GOES BACK MORE THAN 2,000 YEARS

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/06/27/modern-humans-climate-change/

CLIMATE SCIENCE HAS YET TO PROVIDE THA DATA AND THE REASONING BEHIND THE INTERPRETATION OF THE CURRENT WARM PERIOD AS AN ANOMALY EXCEPT FOR THE SUPERSTITON AND CONFIRMATION BIAS ARGUMENT THAT THIS WARMING PERIOD COINCIDES WITH THE THE KIND OF CHANGES WE NEED TO BLAME FOR CLIMATE CHANGE. HUMAN BEINGS ARE NATURALLY SUPERSTITIOUS CREATURES WITH A LONG HISTORY OF SUPERSTITION AND CONFIRMATION BIAS.

PLEASE SEE: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/03/confirmationbias/

Entangled Minds: Witch burning