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A student asks: In the theory of anthropogenic global warming and climate change is there a possibility that we will recover from it and will that recovery be sustained?

My answer: Yes. Climate science is very clear about that. The science says that our use of fossil fuels causes anthropogenic (human caused) warming and that if we stop burning fossil fuels it will stop the anthropogenic warming and we will be on a “sustained recovery” from this human caused temperature cycle of the Holocene.

The recovery will be “sustained” until the next natural Holocene temperature cycle kicks in. We had about 8 or 9 of the natural temperature cycles before this human caused temperature cycle was inserted into the natural sequence by humans burning fossil fuels in the industrial economy. Therefore, when we stop the human caused temperature cycle by changing from fossil fuels to renewables, we will go back to those natural temperature cycles over which we will have no control.

Our only hope is that nature will be kind. The sequence of natural temperature cycles of the Holocene is described in a related post: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/06/11/chaoticholocene/

THE TRUTH IS THAT NATURAL TEMPERATURE CYCLES OVER WHICH HUMANS HAVE NO CONTROL ARE THE GREATEST CHALLENGE HUMANITY HAS EVER FACED.

Al Gore Quote: “The truth is that climate change is presenting the greatest  challenge humanity has ever faced.” (7 wallpapers) - Quotefancy

₵ Ɇ ₦ ł ₦ on Twitter: "We are a plague on Earth.... Either we limit our population  growth, or the natural world will do it for us, and the natural world

THE ESSENCE OF DAVIDISM IS THAT THERE ARE TWO KINDS OF LIFE ON EARTH. THEY ARE (1) THE UNNATURAL WORLD OF HUMANS THAT IS NOT A PART OF NATURE BUT SOMETHING EXTERNAL, FOREIGN, HARMFUL, AND A THREAT TO NATURE, AND (2) THE NATURAL WORLD CONSISTING OF INNOCENT AND LOVABLE CREATURES THAT LIVE IN AN OTHERWISE PERFECT WORLD BUT WITH THE EVER PRESENT THREAT OF THE HUMANS OF THE UNNATURAL WORLD.

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF TWO YOUTUBE VIDEOS ON POPULATION DAVIDISM THAT REACHES BACK TO MALTHUS AND PAUL EHRLICH TO PREACH A HORRIFIC THREAT TO THE “NATURAL WORLD” POSED BY POPULATION GROWTH IN THE UNNATURAL WORLD WITH THE ENDLESSLY REPEATED DOGMA THAT GROWTH WITHOUT LIMITS IS NOT POSSIBLE “ON A FINITE PLANET“.

VIDEO#1

THE VIDEO

THE TRANSCRIPT

I have no doubt that the fundamental source of all our problems, particularly our environmental problems, is population growth. I can’t think of a single problem that wouldn’t be easier to solve if there were less people. And the projections now are … uh… awesome. In the time that I have been making these programs the population of the world has tripled – just in my lifetime! And we all know about geometric growth {the bigger it gets the faster it grows}. And that uh if you were able uh which obviously you can’t uh if we were able to stem it we might be able to have a better chance to grapple with the problem but we can’t. Uh the best we can do is to slow down the rate of increase. We certainly can’t stop it. The one source of comfort, it’s only a tiny thread, is that the knowledge that wherever you empower women, wherever they have the vote, wherever they’ve had the education wherever they have the free will and are in charge of their own lives not dictated to by men uh the birthrate falls. Which is a very good reason for getting rid of slums for increasing education and for for uh dealing with all the other social problems that many people uh many places have. Uh and if there is a shaft of light there but it’s only a very thin shaft.

VIDEO#2

THE VIDEO

THE TRANSCRIPT

Fifty years ago when the WWF was founded there were about 3 billion people on earth. Now there are almost 7 billion. Over twice as many. And every one of them needing space. Space for their homes, space to grow their food, or to get others to grow it for them, space to build schools, roads, and airfields. Where will that {all that space} come from? A little may be taken from land occupied by other people. But most of it could only come from the land which for millions of years animals and plants had for themselves. THE NATURAL WORLD. The impact of these extra millions of people will spread far beyond the space that they phusically claim. The spread of industrialization has changed the chemical consistency of the atmosphere. The oceans that cover most of the surface of the planet have been polluted and increasingly acidified. And the earth is warming. {The population bomb created the climate bomb}. We now realize that the disasters that have grown increasingly to afflict the natural world have one element that connects them all. The unprecedented increase in the number of human beings on the planet. There have been prophets that have warned us of this impending disaster. One of the first was Thomas Malthus. His most important book, Essay on the Principle of Population, was published almost 200 years ago in 1798. In it he argued that the human population would increase inexorably until it was halted by what he called misery and vice. Today, for some reason, that prophecy appears to be largely ignored or generally disregarded. It is true that he did not foresee the so called Green Revolution which increased the amount of food that we could produce in any given area of arable land. And there may be other advances in our food producing skills that we ourselves can’t foresee. But such advances only delay the inevitable because the fundamental truth that Malthus established still remains the truth today and that is that there cannot be more prople on this earth than can be fed. Many people would like to deny that this is so. They would like to believe in that oxymoron called “Sustainable Growth“. Kenneth Bowling, President Kennedy’s Environmental Adviser 45 years ago said something about this. “Anyone who believes in indefinite growth in anything physical ON A PHYSICALLY FINITE PLANET, he said is either mad or an economist. The population of the world is now is growing at nearly 80 million a year, 1.5 million per week, equivalent to 220,000 per day, 9132 per hour, 152 per minute or 2.5 per second. In this country (UK) it is projected to grow by 10 million in 22 years. All these people in this country and worldwide rich or poor need and deserve food, energy, water, and space. Will they be able to get it? I don’t know. I hope so. You may have seen the government’s foresight report on the future of food and ???. It shows how hard it is to feed the 7 billion of us who are alive today. There are many obstacles that are already making this hard to achieve. Soil erosion, suddelization??? , the depletion of aquifers, overgrazing, the spread of plant diseases as a result of globalization, the absurd use of food crops to turn into biofuels to feed motor cars instead of people. So we’ve underlined how desperately difficult it is going to be to feed a population that is projected to stabilize in the range of 8 to 10 billion peope by the year 2050. I suspect that you could read the scores of reports by bodies concerened with global problems and see that population is clearly the driver that underlies them all. And yet find no reference to this obvious fact in any of them. CLIMATE CHANGE tops the environmental agenda at present. We all know that every additional person needs to use some carbon energy if only for ????? and so therefore creates more carbon dioxide. But of course a rich person will produce vastly more than a poor man. Similarly we can see that every extra person is and will be an extra victim of climate change and the poor will suffer more than the rich. Why it is a strange silence? (??). I mean nobody disagrees that population growth is a problem. No one except flat earthers who deny that the planet is finite. We can all see it in that beautiful picture of our earth taken by the Apollo mission. It remains an obvious and brutal fact that on a finite planet human populations will quite definitely ?stop a topmite? And that can only happen in one of two ways. It can happen sooner by fewer human births by contraception, the humane way, a powerful option that allows all of us to deal with the problem if we collectively choose to do so. The alternative is an increased death rate the way in which all other creatures will suffer through famine or disease or predation. That, translated into human terms, means famine or disease. or war over oil or water or food or food or ?grazing rights? or just living space. There is alas no third alternative of indefinite growth. The sooner we stabilize our numbers the sooner we will running up the down escalator. Stop population increase, stop the escalator, and we have some chance to reach the top and that’s to say a decent life for all. To do that requires several things. First and foremost it needs a much wider understanding of the problem and that will not happen while the absurd taboo on discussing it remains such a powerful grip on the minds of so many otherwise worthy ???????. Then it needs a change in our culture so that while everyone retains the right to have as many children as they would like, they understand that having large families means compounding the problems for their children and everybody else’s children that they will face in the future. It needs action by governments. In my view all countries should develop a population policy. Some 70 countries already have them in one form or another and ?different? priorities. So now our destiny is in our hands. There is one glimmer of hope. Wherever women have the vote, wherever they are literate, and have the medical facilities to control the number of children. the birth rate falls. But what can each of us do? You or I. Well, there is just one thing I would ask. Break the taboo in public and in private as best you can and as you ?judge right? Until it’s broken here, until it’s broken there is no hope of the action we need. Wherever and whenever we speak of the environment add a few words to ensure that the population environment is not ignored. Every one of these global problems, social as well as environmental becomes more difficult and ultimately impossible to solve with ever more people. TEXT ON SCREEN: {Population is clearly one of the drivers that underlies all global problems. The sooner we stabilize our numbers the sooner we stop running up the down escalator. Our destiny is in our hands. Communication is the catalyst for change. http://www.theknowledgexchange.org}

David Attenborough Quote: “The human population can no longer be allowed to  grow in the same old uncontrollable way. If we do not take charge of ou...”  (10 wallpapers) - Quotefancy
Perhaps it's time... #childfree | David attenborough, David attenborough  quotes, Humor

CRITICAL COMMENTARY

PART-1: PAUL EHRLICH’S POPULATION BOMB BOMBED

Updated world population growth rate annual 1950 2100
source: https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth

In the Population growth data from the World Bank: LINK: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.GROW we find that the annual rate of global population growth rose from 1.35% in 1960 to around 2.1% in the late 1960s and stayed at around 2.1% until 1970. This was the period when Paul Ehrlich‘s 1968 book The Population Bomb was published. Its many apocalyptic forecasts by both the author of the book and by its many devotees have all been proven comically false. Some of these forecasts are listed below. Exactly the same arguments made in these DAVIDISM videos were made a few years ago by Paul Ehrlich in his now defunct population bomb hypothesis as seen in this video:

Paul Ehrlich, Stanford University: 1970a: Population will inevitably and completely outstrip whatever small increases in food supplies we make. The death rate will increase until at least 100-200 million people per year will be starving to death during the next ten years. Most of the people who are going to die in the greatest cataclysm in the history of man have already been born and by 1975 food shortages will have escalated the present level of world hunger and starvation into famines of unbelievable proportions. Between 1980 and 1989, some 4 billion people, including 65 million Americans, will perish in the “Great Die-Off.”

1968a:  The battle to feed humanity has been lost. There will be a major food shortage in the US in the 1970s and hundreds of millions are going to starve to death and by the 1980s most of the world’s important resources will be depleted. 65 million Americans will die of starvation between 1980-1989 and that by 1999, the US population will decline to 22.6 million. The problems in the US will be relatively minor compared to those in the rest of the world.

1968b: By the year 2000 the United Kingdom will be simply a small group of impoverished islands, inhabited by some 70 million hungry people … If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000.

1970b: In ten years all important animal life in the sea will be extinct. Large areas of coastline will have to be evacuated because of the stench of dead fish.

1970c: Population will inevitably and completely outstrip whatever small increases in food supplies we make. The death rate will increase until at least 100-200 million people per year will be starving to death during the next ten years. Most of the people who are going to die in the greatest cataclysm in the history of man have already been born and by 1975 food shortages will have escalated the present level of world hunger and starvation into famines of unbelievable proportions. Between 1980 and 1989, some 4 billion people, including 65 million Americans, will perish in the “Great Die-Off.”

1970d: Air pollution will take hundreds of thousands of lives in the next few years alone and 200,000 Americans will die in 1973 due to “smog disasters” in New York and Los Angeles. DDT and other chlorinated hydrocarbons have substantially reduced the life expectancy of people born since 1945 and these people have a life expectancy of only 49 years. Life expectancy will reach 42 years by 1980, when it might level out.

1975:  Since more than nine-tenths of the original tropical rain forests will be removed in most areas within the next 30 years or so, it is expected that half of the organisms in these areas will vanish with it.

2015:  Australia is working to become a third-world country through its economic dependence on mining natural resources for export and reliance on coal mining.

Denis Hayes, Organizer of Earth Day It is already too late to avoid mass starvation of all humans on earth.

Peter Gunter, Demography Professor, North Texas State University: “Demographers agree almost unanimously on the following grim timetable: by 1975 widespread famines will begin in India; these will spread by 1990 to include all of India, Pakistan, China and the Near East, Africa. By the year 2000, or conceivably sooner, South and Central America will exist under famine conditions….By the year 2000, thirty years from now, the entire world, with the exception of Western Europe, North America, and Australia, will be in famine.

SOILENT GREEN: These apocalyptic scenarios led to the movie Soilent Green, the apex of this comical episode of an obsession with death by the population bomb. In the movie, the population bomb problem of too many people and not enough food is solved by turning people into food.

DECLINING GROWTH RATE: Yet, since that time, over the last 50 years, from 1970 to 2020 the rate of population growth has steadily declined from 2.1% in 1970 when the polulation was 3.7 billion to 1.1% in 2019 when the population was 7.7 billion. This observed decline is natural and understood in terms of population dynamics of any species. It is not a creation of population activism. We should also note that a declining growth rate in a growing population cannot be described as geometric growth as claimed in the video.

THE POPULATION BOMB: The continued obsession with the population bomb seen in the two Davidism videos above is also seen in a related post : LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/02/29/prophets-of-doom/ , where we find that the Ehrlichean population fearology continues unabated even though the rate ofpopulation growth has steadily declined and even though all population studies now forecast continued decline in population gowth rate.

COLLAPSE OF CIVILIZATION: A new twist in population fearology that encompasses climate change fearology is the coming collapse of civilization to be caused by a growing population on a finite planet. It is proposed that our population and climate problems will cause human civilization to collapse just as it had collapsed in the past as for example in the Late Bronze Age Collapse. This collapse of civilization has become a common theme in environmental doomology as seen in the two links below.

LINK#1 EHRLICHIAN collapse : https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/16/collapse/

LINK#2 DAVIDISM collapse: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/10/24/collapse-of-civilization-part-2/

Soylent Green Movie (1973) - video Dailymotion

PART-2: THE RESURRECTION OF FAILED MALTHUSIANISM

Both the Ehrlichian Population Bomb and the Population Davidism preached in the videos above are derived from a legacy of failed Malthusianism. Quite unlike the Ehrlichean Population Bomb where Malthus is cited but not brandished, the DAVIDISM presented in the videos above makes a point of citing Malthus as a way of validating the new population Davidism being preached. The DAVIDISM defense of Malthus is that yes he could not foresee the Green Revolution, but his theory is fundamentally sound and now that the Green Revolution has come and gone there is nothing left to save humanity from Malthusianism – growing population with a fixed agricultural food source. This argument contains a gross misunderstanding of the Green Revolution issue. That issue is that a failure to solve the projected problems of the future with technologies of the past is not a valid argument for forecasts of doom. As for example, our current reliance on land for food on a watery planet may change in the future.

As for the planet being overwhelmed with human population, we should also consider the relative insignificance of humans on a planetary scale that is inconsistent with the DAVIDISM horror of 7.8 billion humans on earth. Consider for example, that even as humans are worried about things like carbon pollution and the population bomb in terms of the planet being overwhelmed by the sheer number of humans on earth, humans, like all life on earth, are carbon life forms created from the carbon that came from the mantle of the planet, but a rather insignificant portion of it.

In terms of total weight, humans constitute 0.05212% of the total mass of life on earth. Yet we imagine that our numbers are so huge that the planet will be overwhelmed by our population bomb. All the life on earth taken together is 0.000002875065% of the crust of the planet by weight. The crust of the planet where we live and where we have things like land, ocean, atmosphere, climate, and carbon life forms, is 0.3203% of the planet by weight. The other 99.6797% of the planet, the mantle and core, is a place where we have never been and will never be and on which we have no impact whatsoever. In terms of the much feared element carbon that is said to cause planetary devastation by way of climate change and ocean acidification, a mass balance shows that the crust of the planet where we live contains 0.201% of the planet’s carbon some of which appear as carbon lifeforms such as humans. The other 99.8% of the carbon inventory of the planet is in the mantle and core.

The crust of the planet where we live is an insignificant portion of the planet. Life on earth is an insignificant portion of the crust of the planet. Humans are an insignificant portion of life on earth. Although it is true that humans must take care of their environment, we propose that the environment should have a more rational definition because the mass balance above does not show that the whole of the planet is our environment.

The Malthusian and DAVIDISM views of our role on a planetary scale likely derives from the communal nature of humans. Like ants and bees, humans are social creatures that live in communities of humans so that when they look around they see humans everywhere. This is the likely source of our human oriented view of the world. Paul Ehrlich’s overpopulation theory is derived from his first visit to India which he described as “people people people people people!” This biased view makes it possible for us to extrapolate Calcutta to the planet and come up with the fearful image described by Jeff Gibbs as “Have you every wondered what would happen if a single species took over an entire planet?” What we see in these DAVIDISM videos is that DAVIDISM is based on this grossly fallacious view described by Jeff Gibbs.

THE DAVIDISM ASUMPTION THAT THE PLANET IS OVERLOADED WITH HUMANS IS ALSO UNDONE WITH A SIMPLE COMPARISON WITH OTHER LIFE FORMS. FOR EXAMPLE, POLAR KRILL SWARMS ARE TYPICALLY 500 MILLION TONNES IN WEIGHT. THE WEIGHT OF 7.8 BILLION HUMANS WITH AN AVERAGE WEIGHT OF 62KG IS 483 MILLION TONNES, LESS THAN A SINGLE SWARM OF POLAR KRILL.

YET ANOTHER CONCLUSION WE CAN DRAW FROM THIS COMPARISON IS THE ENORMOUS FOOD SOURCE IN THE OCEAN THAT IS OVERLOOKED IN THE LAND BASED ANALYSIS OF MALTHUSIANISM AND DAVIDISM.

IT TURNS OUT THAT THE FINITE PLANET IS A LITTLE BIGGER THAN DAVIDISM THINKS IT IS.

Michael Moore Presents: Planet of the Humans — Full Documentary — Directed  by Jeff Gibbs | INVERSE JOURNAL

PART-3: THE CLIMATE AND BAMBI CONNECTIONS

The Green Revolution was not an isolated indicent that is now history. The real message of the Green Revolution is that Malthus saw doom and gloom ahead because he could not solve future problems with past technologies. This is the essential Malthusian Trap in which we now find DAVIDISM. Future food will not be solved with the old Green Revolution but with new ideas and new technologies. The assumption that all food comes from land and that a greater demand for food on a finite land extent will blow up is a land centered view of earth which is mostly ocean. As land becomes scarce future food technologies may harvest the ocean to much greater extent even down to the bottom where a parallel system of life on earth exists drawing their carbon and their energy not from the sun but from the mantle of the planet. The land assumption in DAVIDISM is just as flawed as the fixed technology assumption of Malthus. LINK: https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article/59/11/967/251334 .

Food and Agriculture economist Jayson Lusk LINK: https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article/59/11/967/251334 Points out yet another flaw in Malthusianism exposed by the post war economic boom in Asia where we find that as countries like Japan and South Korea are struggling with a declining population and having to import large numbers of workers from South Asia.

On the matter of the “absurd growing of food crops to turn into biofuels for motor cars“, we should point out that this initiative is one required by the “climate emergency” to which DAVIDISIM subscribes whole heartedly as a climate activist. Climate scientists want bofuels to replace fossil fuels and the IPCC had pushed hard for biofuels, a venture that eventually required Indonesia to burn down thousands of square km of forests to plant palm oil plantations for biofuels.

How Fires in Indonesia & Palm Oil Are Killing Orangutans

Large parts of DAVIDISM’S NATURAL WORLD, including orangutans and Sumatran Elephants were wiped out in this climate action venture, a venture promoted by DAVIDISM in numerous videos and lectures.

These endangered Indonesian animals are dying in the worst forest fire on  record | Animalogic

Population Davidism expressed in the videos above is a mirror image of this sordid history of envronmentalism gone awry. Environmentalism which started out as a movement to enhance the quality of life of humans by managing their environs (surroundings) has now been turned 180 degrees by Davidism . Here environmentalism is seen as the proper care of surroundings for the sake of the surroundings which Davidism holds sacred as THE NATURAL WORLD. In Davidism, as in Bambi-ism, the environmental ideal is a humanless world where Bambi and friends can frolic. LINK TO RELATED POST ON BAMBI: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/15/the-bambi-principle/ This fallacious anti-human view of environmentalism leads to fallacious anti-human conclusions. DAVIDISM is a flawed view of nature. Humans are part of nature and not an external evil force from which nature needs to be saved by DAVIDISM.

CLIMATE CHANGE IS THE NEW COLONIALISM | Thongchai Thailand

BAMBI AND FRIENDS IN THE PERFECTION OF THE HUMANLESS WORLD OF DAVIDISM

PART-4: THE BIBLICAL ROOTS OF DAVIDISM

The deeper roots of DAVIDISM and of the Bambi Principle in environmentalism likely derives from Biblical realities described in the Apocalypse. The Biblical roots of Bambism and DAVIDISM corruption of environmentalism is seen in this Earth Day sermon by Janet Parker: “Today’s service is in honor of Earth Day, and yesterday the Rock Spring community came together in an extraordinary way to celebrate the goodness of God’s creation and to highlight our role as stewards of creation in our first-ever Earth Day festival. The Earth Day festival was a symphony of creative and inspiring activities that demonstrated our love for the Earth and various ways that we can care for creation and minimize our harmful impacts on the planet. Yet while the mood was celebratory and fun, close attention to the creative exhibits revealed some discordant notes. For example, one of the exhibits that generated interest was the “enviroscape,” an ingenious model that demonstrated how different forms of pollution like pesticides, animal waste, construction materials, litter, agricultural runoff, and oily residue from cars get flushed into our local streams and rivers and run down into the Chesapeake Bay. Exhibits like this reminded us that Earth Day is more than a celebration of nature, though it is surely that. But Earth Day is also implicitly a recognition that something has gone wrong in our relationship with the natural world, something that needs fixing — something that we might describe in religious terms as a call to repentance, and even conversion. Yet here we begin to tread on treacherous ground, because acknowledging the depth of the planetary crisis human beings have created is fraught with danger. I’m not speaking here of political danger, of the suppression of ecological truth by political leaders. I’m speaking of emotional and spiritual danger — the danger that recognition of the true magnitude of our ecological crisis will lead to paralysis and despair. If we are really paying attention, the drumbeat of news about ecological degradation and climate change not only evokes fear, but also a deep sadness. Because if we are tuned in, we sense on some level that the Earth that we know and enjoy right now will not be the Earth that our children and grandchildren inherit. The signs are everywhere. Headlines scream at us: three-fourths of the rockfish in the Chesapeake Bay are diseased. The Shenandoah River is now listed as one of the top ten most endangered rivers in the nation. Glaciers and ice sheets in the Arctic and Antarctic are melting much faster than expected. Warming temperatures over the next century could turn rich agricultural land into desert, dry out the rainforests, raise sea levels, extinguish countless species, and cause disastrous storms. In fact, most scientists now say that climate change is not some- thing facing us in the future, but is already here. The debate over whether global warming is happening is over. The only question is how bad will it get? Dr. Gustave Speth, dean of the School of Forestry & Environmental Studies at Yale, was asked recently if environmental damage due to climate change could be prevented. No, he replied, it’s too late for that. But we may still be able to prevent catastrophic damage. He concluded, “This is our last chance to get it right. We have run out of time.”

This is a reference to the Bible. It is the language of apocalypse — the imagery of the end times and the mysteries of God. The environmental challenges that face us are beginning to look apocalyptic, except now the apocalypse is not a fantasy of fundamentalists, or the stuff of science fiction, but the edge of an abyss that clear- eyed scientists peer over and tremble at. And the threats we face are not orchestrated by God but self-inflicted.

RELATED POST: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/23/apocalyptic-environmentalism-and-climate-change/

It's Time To Think About What Comes After The Apocalypse | OurFuture.org by  People's Action

ANY HUMAN WHO THINKS THAT THERE TOO MANY HUMANS HERE SHOULD LOOK IN THE MIRROR TO FIND ONE OF THOSE HUMANS THAT SHOULD NOT BE HERE.

Mirror Suit Images, Stock Photos & Vectors | Shutterstock

Measuring global warming

THIS POST IS A GRAPHICAL PRESENTATION OF THE GLOBAL WARMING TEMPERATURE DATA IN THE NOAA SATELLITE ERA FROM JANUARY 1979 TO DECEMBER 2020. LOWER TROPOSPHERE TEMPERATURE DATA PROVIDED BY UAHThe University of Alabama Huntsville.

Rocket City scholars: UAH posts impressive academic profile - Yellowhammer  News | Yellowhammer News

PRESENTATION OF TEMPERATURE DATA ONE CALENDAR MONTH AT A TIME FOR ALL GLOBAL REGIONS IN GIF IMAGES THAT CYCLE THROUGH THE TWELVE CALENDAR MONTHS.

Revolving Earth GIFs | Tenor
Satellite Data | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)  formerly known as National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

REGION#1=GLOBAL {LAND AND OCEAN}: GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURES

REGION#2=GLOBAL LAND ONLY: GLOBAL LAND MEAN TEMPERATURES

REGION#3: GLOBAL OCEAN ONLY: GLOBAL MEAN OCEAN TEMPERATURE

REGION#4: THE TROPICS: LAND AND OCEAN MEAN TEMPERATURES

REGION#5: TROPICS LAND ONLY MEAN TEMPERATURES

REGION 6: TROPICS OCEAN ONLY: MEAN TEMPERATURES

REGION#7: NORTHERN EXTENT LAND AND OCEAN MEAN TEMPERATURES

REGION#8: NORTHERN EXTENT LAND ONLY MEAN TEMPERATURES

REGION#9: NORTHERN EXTENT OCEAN ONLY MEAN TEMPERATURES

REGION#10: SOUTHERN EXTENT LAND AND OCEAN MEAN TEMPERATURES

REGION#11: SOUTHERN EXTENT LAND ONLY MEAN TEMPERATURES

REGION#12: SOUTHERN EXTENT OCEAN ONLY MEAN TEMPERATURES

REGION#13: NORTH POLAR REGION LAND AND OCEAN MEAN TEMPERATURES

REGION#14: NORTH POLAR REGION LAND ONLY MEAN TEMPERATURES

REGION#15: NORTH POLAR REGION OCEAN ONLY MEAN TEMPERATURES

REGION#16: SOUTH POLAR REGION LAND AND OCEAN MEAN TEMPERATURES

REGION#17: SOUTH POLAR REGION: LAND ONLY MEAN TEMPERATURES

REGION#18: SOUTH POLAR REGION: OCEAN ONLY MEAN TEMPERATURES

Download Slow Rotating Earth Gif | PNG & GIF BASE

SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS

COMPUTATION OF GLOBAL MEAN WARMING FROM REGIONAL WARMING DATA

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is image-1.png

AREA WEIGHTS OF REGIONS FOR WEIGHTED AVERAGING OF THE RATE OF WARMING

THIS POST PRESENTS UAH SATELLITE DATA FOR 42 YEARS OF SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE PERIOD JANUARY 1979 TO DECEMBER 2020. THE DATA ARE PRESENTED SEPARATELY FOR THE ELEVEN GLOBAL REGIONS {NORTH POLAR LAND AND OCEAN}, {NORTHERN EXTENT LAND AND OCEAN}, {TROPICS LAND AND OCEAN}, {SOUTHERN EXTENT LAND AND OCEAN}, {SOUTH POLAR LAND AND OCEAN}, AND GLOBAL LAND AND OCEAN.

THE DATA ARE PRESENTED SEPAREATELY FOR THE 12 CALENDAR MONTHS ONE MONTH AT A TIME BOTH AS A SUSTAINED 42-YEAR TREND AND AS A SEQUENCE OF DECADAL TRENDS. THE DATA USED IN THE ANALYSIS ARE PROVIDED BY THE UNIVRSITY OF ALABAMA HUNTSVILLE IN THEIR UAH TEMPERATURE DATASET FOR THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE.

A SPECIFIC FEATURE OF THIS ANALYSIS IS THAT THE REGIONAL WARMING DATA FOR THE TEN REGIONS FROM NORTH POLAR TO SOUTH POLAR LISTED ABOVE COMBINED WITH AN AREA WEIGHTED AVERAGE AND COMPARED WITH THE GLOBAL DATA PROVIDED BY UAH. THE COMPARISON SHOWS A CLOSE AGREEMENT OF THE TWO GLOBAL SERIES AND THAT MAY IMPLY THAT THE GLOBAL DATA ARE NOT MEASURED BUT INFERRED IN THIS SAME MANNER.

THE DECADAL WARMING RATES PROVIDED FOR EACH CALENDAR MONTH SHOW CLEARLY THAT THE FULL SPAN TRENDS FOUND IN THE DATA CANNOT BE UNDRSTOOD AS A SUSTAINED RATE OF WARMING FOR THE FULL SPAN WARMING OVER THE FULL SPAN FROM 1079 TO 2020 BUT THAT RATHER THAT THE WARMING RATES REPORTED ABOVE FOR THE FULL SPAN MUST BE UNDERSTOOD AS AN AVERAGE OF WILDLY VARYING SEQUENCE OF DECADAL WARMING AND COOLING CYCLES. THE FULL SPAN WARMING FOUND IN THE DATA IS SIMPLY THE AVERGE OF A WILD VARIATION OF DECADAL WARMING RATES WITH THIS VOLATILITY IN TURN UNDERSTOOD AS AN INTERNAL VARIABILITY ISSUE.

OF THE TEN SUB-REGIONS STUDIED FROM NORTH POLAR TO SOUTH POLAR AND PRESENTED GRAPHICALLY ABOVE, WE FIND THAT THE NORTH POLAR REGION IS WARMING THE FASTEST AND THE SOUTH POLAR REGION THE SLOWEST IF AT ALL. THE TREND LINES ALONG WITH THE CORRESPONDING 95% CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR ALL REGIONS ARE SUMMARIZED IN THE GIF IMAGE BELOW.

SUMMARY OF THE DATA FOR ALL REGIONS IN A GIF IMAGE

The mean full span temperature trend is shown in blue.

The 95% confidence interval for the mean temperature trend is bounded by the red and black lines. The precision varies greatly among the global regions studied.

Satellite Data | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)  formerly known as National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

THIS POST IS A STUDY OF THE DANTEAN ANOMALY IN PALEO CLIMATOLOGY WHEREIN WE FIND THAT THE COOLING TRANSITION OF TEMPERATURES IN EUROPE FROM THE MEDIEVAL WARM PERIOD TO THE LITTLE ICE AGE WAS INTERRUPTED BY A WARMING AND DROUGHT EVENT IN EUROPE CALLED THE DANTEAN ANOMALY.

THE SOURCES USED IN THIS STUDY ARE (1) THE DANTEAN ANOMALY PROJECT: LINK: https://dantean.hypotheses.org/ AND (2) THE CITATIONS FROM THE CURRENT LITERATURE ON THIS ISSUE IN CLIMATE SCIENCE LISTED BELOW.

PART-1: WHAT WE FIND IN THE DANTEAN ANOMALY PROJECT

The cold/wet anomaly of the 1310s (“Dantean Anomaly”) has attracted a lot of attention from scholars, as it is commonly interpreted as a signal of the transition between the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA). The huge variability that can be observed during this decade, like the high interannual variability observed in the 1340s, has been highlighted as a side effect of this rapid climatic transition. In this paper, we demonstrate that a multi-seasonal drought of almost 2 years occurred in the Mediterranean between 1302 and 1304, followed by a series of hot, dry summers north of the Alps from 1304 to 1306. We suggest that this outstanding dry anomaly, unique in the 13th and 14th centuries, together with cold anomalies of the 1310s and the 1340s, is part of the climatic shift from the MCA to the LIA. Our reconstruction of the predominant weather patterns of the first decade of the 14th century – based on both documentary and proxy data – identifies multiple European precipitation seesaw events between 1302 and 1307, with similarities to the seesaw conditions which prevailed over continental Europe in 2018. It can be debated to what extent the 1302–1307 period can be compared to what is currently discussed regarding the influence of the phenomenon of Arctic amplification on the increasing frequency of persistent stable weather patterns that have occurred since the late 1980s. Additionally, this paper deals with socioeconomic and cultural responses to drought risks in the Middle Ages as outlined in contemporary sources and provides evidence that there is a significant correlation between pronounced dry seasons and fires that devastated cities. CITATION: Bauch, M., Labbé, T., Engel, A., and Seifert, P.: A prequel to the Dantean Anomaly: the precipitation seesaw and droughts of 1302 to 1307 in Europe, Clim. Past, 16, 2343–2358, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2343-2020 , 2020

PART-2: WHAT WE FIND IN THE CLIMATE OF THE PAST ARTICLE: LINK: https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/16/2343/2020/ ON THE THE 5-YEAR DROUGHT IN EUROPE 1302-1307 THAT CAME BEFORE THE DANTEAN ANOMALY

Martin Bauch1, Thomas Labbé1,3, Annabell Engel1, and Patric Seifert: 2Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research (TROPOS), Leipzig, Germany. : The cold/wet anomaly of the 1310s (“Dantean Anomaly”) has attracted a lot of attention from scholars, as it is commonly interpreted as a signal of the transition between the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA). The huge variability that can be observed during this decade, like the high interannual variability observed in the 1340s, has been highlighted as a side effect of this rapid climatic transition. In this paper, we demonstrate that a multi-seasonal drought of almost 2 years occurred in the Mediterranean between 1302 and 1304, followed by a series of hot, dry summers north of the Alps from 1304 to 1306. We suggest that this outstanding dry anomaly, unique in the 13th and 14th centuries, together with cold anomalies of the 1310s and the 1340s, is part of the climatic shift from the MCA to the LIA. Our reconstruction of the predominant weather patterns of the first decade of the 14th century – based on both documentary and proxy data – identifies multiple European precipitation seesaw events between 1302 and 1307, with similarities to the seesaw conditions which prevailed over continental Europe in 2018. It can be debated to what extent the 1302–1307 period can be compared to what is currently discussed regarding the influence of the phenomenon of Arctic amplification on the increasing frequency of persistent stable weather patterns that have occurred since the late 1980s. Additionally, this paper deals with socioeconomic and cultural responses to drought risks in the Middle Ages as outlined in contemporary sources and provides evidence that there is a significant correlation between pronounced dry seasons and fires that devastated cities.

MORE ON THE MEDIEVAL DROUGHT FROM “THE DROUGHT OF THE CENTURY” ARTICLE

The transition from the Medieval Warm Period to the Little Ice Age was apparently accompanied by severe droughts between 1302 and 1307 in Europe; this preceded the wet and cold phase of the 1310s and the resulting great famine of 1315-21. In the journal Climate of the Past, researchers from the Leibniz Institutes for the History and Culture of Eastern Europe (GWZO) and Tropospheric Research (TROPOS) write that the 1302-07 weather patterns display similarities to the 2018 weather anomaly, in which continental Europe experienced exceptional heat and drought. Both the medieval and recent weather patterns resemble the stable weather patterns that have occurred more frequently since the 1980s due to the increased warming of the Arctic. According to the Leibniz researchers’ hypothesis based on their comparison of the 1302-07 and 2018 droughts, transitional phases in the climate are always characterized by periods of low variability, in which weather patterns remain stable for a long time. The published study presents preliminary findings of the Freigeist Junior Research Group on the Dantean Anomaly (1309-1321) at the Leibniz Institute for the History and Culture of Eastern Europe (GWZO). Funded by the Volkswagen Stiftung, the group is investigating the rapid climate change in the early 14th century and its effects on late medieval Europe. The Great Famine (1315-1321) is considered the largest pan-European famine of the past millennium. It was followed a number of years later by the Black Death (1346-1353), the most devastating pandemic known, which wiped out about a third of the population. At least partially responsible for both of these crises was a phase of rapid climate change after 1310, called the ‘Dantean Anomaly’ after the contemporary Italian poet and philosopher Dante Alighieri. The 1310s represent a transitional phase from the High Medieval Climate Anomaly, a period of relatively high temperatures, to the Little Ice Age, a long climatic period characterized by lower temperatures and advancing glaciers.

Drought of the century in the Middle Ages -- with parallels to climate change today?

PART-3: THE SOURCE PAPER FOR THE DANTEAN ANOMALY

Bauch, Martin, et al. “A prequel to the Dantean Anomaly: the precipitation seesaw and droughts of 1302 to 1307 in Europe.” Climate of the Past 16.6 (2020): 2343-2358. Abstract. The cold/wet anomaly of the 1310s (“Dantean Anomaly”) has attracted a lot of attention from scholars, as it is commonly interpreted as a signal of the transition between the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA). The huge variability that can be observed during this decade, like the high interannual variability observed in the 1340s, has been highlighted as a side effect of this rapid climatic transition. In this paper, we demonstrate that a multiseasonal drought of almost 2 years occurred in the Mediterranean between 1302 and 1304, followed by a series of hot, dry summers north of the Alps from 1304 to 1306. We suggest that this outstanding dry anomaly, unique in the 13th and 14th centuries, together with cold anomalies of the 1310s and the 1340s, is part of the climatic shift from the MCA to the LIA. Our reconstruction of the predominant weather patterns of the first decade of the 14th century – based on both documentary and proxy data – identifies multiple European precipitation seesaw events between 1302 and 1307, with similarities to the seesaw conditions which prevailed over continental Europe in 2018. It can be debated to what extent the 1302–1307 period can be compared to what is currently discussed regarding the influence of the phenomenon of Arctic amplification on the increasing frequency of persistent stable weather patterns that have occurred since the late 1980s. Additionally, this paper deals with socioeconomic and cultural responses to drought risks in the Middle Ages as outlined in contemporary sources and provides evidence that there is a significant correlation between pronounced dry seasons and fires that devastated cities. 1 Introduction and state of the art In recent decades, scholars of medieval studies have produced considerable research reconstructing the Little Ice Age (LIA) (Pfister et al., 1996) and appraising the impacts of cold events on pre-modern societies; however, except for the notable exception of economic historians, few scholars have addressed the issue of droughts (Stone, 2014). Almost two decades ago, Brown (2001) has highlighted the so-called Dantean Anomaly as a wet and cold anomaly lasting from
1315 to 1321 that led to famine over northwestern Europe (Jordan, 1996). This climatic anomaly has been recently described more neutrally as “the 1310s event” (Slavin, 2018). A distinctive “1300 event” has been found in proxy data even around the Pacific rim (Nunn, 2007). Historians have consistently focused on the cold, wet character of this decade, seemingly fascinated by continuous rains and their often detrimental impacts on food security. A lot has been written, for example, about how excessive rain in 1315 and 1316
caused harvests to fail and ultimately resulted in a famine in northern Europe (Campbell, 2016; Jordan, 1996). However, as modern worries about global warming and the possibility of more frequent drought events like what occurred in 2003 have grown, dry periods have found more and more interest among climate historians (Brázdil et al., 2019; Brázdil et al., 2018; on the Middle Ages: Rohr et al., 2018). Most of this research, though, deals with the early modern period (Garnier, 2019; Munzar, 2004; Martín-Vide and
Barriendos Vallvé, 1995; Weikinn, 1965/66), especially with the “millennium drought” of 1540 (Pfister, 2018; Wetter and Pfister, 2013; Wetter et al., 2014). (NOTE: There are a few more papers in the literature on this issue but with the same authors with similar content.

Drought of the century in the Middle Ages -- with parallels to climate change today?

CONCLUSION: WE NOTE AS FOLLOWS: (1) ALL SOURCES OF INFORMATION CITED ABOVE IN TURN CITE THE SAME SOURCE PAPER SHOWN ABOVE AS BAUCH ETAL. (2) THE DANTEAN ANOMALY CLIMATE EVENTS DESCRIBED IN THESE SOURCES ARE LOCALIZED TO EUROPE AND EVEN TO CERTAIN PARTS OF EUROPE. (3) THE 1302 TO 1307 DROUGHTS ARE DESCRIBED WITH A 5-YEAR TIME SCALE. (4) THE EXTREME TEMPERATURE EVENTS ARE DESCRIBED IN SHORTER TIME SCALES, AS SHORT AS DECADAL.

WE CONCLUDE FROM THESE DATA THAT THE TIME SCALE AND GEOGRAPHICAL EXTENT OF THE DATA DO NOT HAVE A GLOBAL CLIMATE INTERPRETATION BECAUSE OF INTERNAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY DYNAMICS DESCRIBED IN A RELATED POST: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/07/16/the-internal-variability-issue/ . AN ADDED CONSIDERATION IS THE CHAOTIC NATURE OF TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS SEEN IN TRANSITIONS FROM ONE CLIMATE STATE TO ANOTHER. LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/12/25/youngerdryas/

Medieval demography - Wikipedia

THESE PALEO DATA DO NOT HAVE A GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE INTERPRETATION THAT WOULD IMPLY THAT YET ANOTHER HOLOCENE WARMING CYCLE HAD INTERCEDED BETWEEN THE MEDIEVAL WARM PERIOD AND THE LITTLE ICE AGE. THE HOLOCENE TEMPERATURE CYCLES ARE DESCRIBED IN A RELATED POST: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/06/11/chaoticholocene/

THE INTERNAL VARIABILITY ISSUE | Thongchai Thailand
The Thames Frost Fairs in London

POSTSCRIPT: WITH THANKS TO ERIC WORRAL OF WUWT, THE MOST VIEWED SITE FOR GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE. IT WAS ERIC WORRAL THAT ALERTED US TO THIS ISSUE. LINK: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/01/09/claim-the-temperature-spike-just-prior-to-the-little-ice-age-can-teach-us-about-global-warming/

Eric Worrall (@worrall_eric) | Twitter

10 amazing ancient forests | Booking.com

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL EVALUATION OF THE CALL TO FOREST PRESERVATION AS A FORM OF CLIMATE ACTION AND THE ROLE OF THE GLOBAL NORTH IN PUSHING FOR FOREST PRESERVATION IN THE GLOBAL SOUTH SUCH THAT THE ECOLOGICAL AND CLIMATE CHANGE ADVANTAGE OF FOREST MANAGEMENT IS UNDERSTOOD IN TERMS OF MANAGING OTHER PEOPLE’S FORESTS.

{REFERENCE#1: EUROPEAN FOREST MANAGEMENT INITIATIVES OUTSIDE OF EUROPE}

In an IUCN paper on the need for forest preservation to fight climate: LINK: https://www.iucn.org/resources/issues-briefs/forests-and-climate-change

This issue is explained in terms of the REDD Principle as follows: “Restoring forest landscapes helps enhance climate change mitigation and adaptation. The Bonn Challenge is a global effort to bring 1.5 million SQ-KM of deforested and degraded land under restoration by 2020 and 3.5 million SQ-KM by 2030 – IUCN supports national and sub-national decision makers in reaching this important goal. Reaching the 3.5 million SQ-KM target could sequester up to 1.7 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent annually. Enabling rights-based land use ensures community involvement in land-use outcomes. IUCN produces results on the ground through partners and projects worldwide to help strengthen community control over forests, alleviate poverty, empower women and men, enhance biodiversity, and sustainably manage forests. Unlocking forest benefits is critical to a sustainable and equitable supply of forest goods and services. (blogger’s translation: “You don’t have to clear forests to get rich like we did because we can show you how to enjoy life as forest people”). IUCN builds capacity for implementing restoration, engaging the private sector and striving to make sure benefits – such as those from Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) – are equitably shared with local landowners and forest communities“.

What do Amazon tribes eat? | Bushcraft Buddy

RELATED POSTS ON EUROPEAN FOREST MANAGEMENT OF OTHER PEOPLE’S FORESTS:

LINK#1:FOREST MANAGEMENT COLONIALISM: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/28/the-incredible-beauty-of-forest-cover/

LINK#2: AMAZONIA LUNGS OF THE EARTH: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/08/07/amazonia-lungs-of-the-earth/

PATA Micronesia Tri-annual Meeting held in Kosrae - Island Times
EUROPEAN TOURISTS IN EUROPE MANAGEMED FOREST IN MICRONESIA

File:European Parliament logo.svg - Wikimedia Commons

THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT POLICY FOR THE AMAZON

Brazil and the Amazon Rainforest. Deforestation, Biodiversity and Cooperation with the EU and International Forums. For the largest tropical rainforest on Earth, an aggravated forest fire and deforestation regime in Amazonia put at risk the world’s richest biodiversity assets and a major climate regulator. For the EU27, it highlights the need to associate the question of embodied deforestation consumption by placing deforestationfree supply chains at the centre of negotiations surrounding the EU-Mercosur Association Agreement, given the volume of trade between these economic blocs in meat, leather, soy, coffee, rubber, wood pulp, biofuel and timber. This document was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the committee on the Environment, Public Health and Food Safety (ENVI). The largest and most well preserved tropical rainforest on Earth, housed within the important Amazon River System, and containing one in ten of global species, Amazonia is shared by eight South American countries, and one European Union outermost region. The renewed intensity in 2019 of seasonal forest fires, and continuous overall deforestation numbers in the region, especially in Brazil and Bolivia, have been greeted by countries the world over with dismay. At stake are some of the most important issues affecting human life on Earth today: climate change and the conservation of natural systems essential to our survival as a species. Two related issues are highlighted: forest fires and overall deforestation, both of which affect the global climate and weather patterns, and contribute to the depletion of assets in medicine, agriculture, and other key industries, as a result of an impoverished biodiversity regime. As the region’s second largest trade partner after China, the EU27 recognises that consumption patterns in its own domestic markets are drivers of ‘embodied deforestation’, ‘creating high pressure on forests in non-EU countries and accelerating deforestation.’ To curb this practice, it is required to secure trade in ‘products from deforestation-free supply chains.’ 2 The finalisation of the EU-Mercosur Association Agreement poses an opportunity, where increased technology exchange and cooperation in science, research, and experience in governance may provide a change to environmental management in the Mercosur and neighbouring countries across South America, as well as increased awareness and adherence to environmental due diligence among the EU27. In parallel to the EU-Mercosur discussion, the world is poised to renew pledges on two legally binding international environmental commitments -the 2015 Conference of the Parties (COP21) to the UNFCCC, and the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). As these commitments provide the legal backdrop to comprehensive protection of the global environment, it is paramount to secure the buy-in of the Mercosur governments. With 60% of the Amazon forest lying within its boundaries, and the primary Mercosur trade partner with Europe, Brazil was one of the first signatories of both the CBD and the Paris Declaration. But the current rate of Amazonian deforestation, and the country’s infringement of a longstanding pro-indigenous social compact challenge global trust in the country’s commitment to international agreements. Despite a drop in deforestation numbers from 2005 to 2014, recent figures issued by the Brazilian government show that by 2015 illegal logging, clear-cutting, and forest fires had already begun to gather momentum; in 2019 they contributed to a 46% increase in deforestation, compared to the 2012 deforestation rate which was the lowest in recorded history (see Figure 1). The forest fire figures also arrived at a key juncture in the battle to mitigate climate change, with global warming reaching 1.1°C. 3 Quite seriously, accumulated drought and deforestation, and the consequent drop in forest-based photosynthesis undermines Amazonia’s role as a net intaker of CO2 -predicted to drop to zero by 2030 -, and its fundamental function in temperature, humidity and rain pattern regulation, affecting the livelihood of millions in Latin America’s largely commodities-based economies. Moreover, forest depletion across South America’s biomes is already causing damage to valuable fresh water aquifers, and their symbiotic relationship to landscapes and weather patterns. Far from a new phenomenon, fires in Amazonia are generally set intentionally, often for clearing of secondary growth forests by small producers and indigenous populations, as a tool to free cropping areas, and to release nutrients. Far more devastating are large-scale forest fires, which follow the illegal 1 The entire scope of the Amazon Basin, its forests and ecosystems is known as Amazonia. 2 European Commission, ‘Towards a Sustainable Europe by 2030’, https://ec.europa.eu/commission/publications/reflection-pap ertowards-sustainable-europe-2030_en. 3 UNFCCC news, ‘2017 Was Among Top Three Hottest Years On Record’, https://unfccc.int/news/2017-was-among-top-three-hottestyears-on-record. Brazil and the Amazon Rainforest -Deforestation, Biodiversity and Cooperation 9 PE 648.792 extraction of valuable timber to make way for cattle ranching and large-scale agriculture. In years of drought, these fires may also consume old growth forests. Closely following this trend, for the first time in more than three decades, deforestation reportedly increased during the rainy period from January to April 2020. Known as the ‘winter months’, this is a normally quiet period for logging in Amazonia, given the sheer logistical difficulties in operating logging equipment in the rain. In 2020, new data released by the Brazilian National Spatial Research Institute (INPE), revealed a record 51% year-on-year (December to March) increase in deforestation in the Amazon, equivalent to about 796.08 km², or 80,000 football pitches. The loss of ecosystem services associated to deforestation is of particular concern. Thought to host 40,000 species of plants and trees, 2.5 million species of insects, and at least 2,000 species of mammals and birds 4 , Amazonia provides ecosystem services fundamentally connected to its genetic diversity. Sometimes called ‘hotspots’ of genetic diversity, genetic centres of high plant diversity such as Amazonia are the target of medicinal bioprospecting. This is because they are ‘de facto’ live laboratories for the production of seeds and other vegetative propagules, which ensure genetic adaptability in a changing environment (i.e. large gene pools to produce diseaseresistant and high-yielding seeds to counter famine), and adaptation to climate change, among others. 5,6 A closer examination of the issues reveals a troubling picture of regional governments, national and international partners working at cross-purposes, polarised by the false dichotomy of nature conservationversus poverty alleviation. Addressingthe underlying causes of Amazonian depletion and degradation and of other valuable South American forests, and achieving lasting livelihood solutions for millions living in the region – most in urban settings – require historically contextualised actions, conducive to increased national, regional and international partnerships and cooperation at all levels. Programmes such as the World Bank’s Sustainable Landscapes programme, connect international biodiversity conservation and management and climate change action to science-based solutions designed to harness natural resources sustainably into the economy, valuing renewable natural resources, biological and biomimetic assets, environmental services and materials. The EU-Mercosur Association Agreement is seen by some as an opportunity for the EU to promote a new type of trade policy, including provisions on labour rights and the environment. Complex issues such as biodiversity depletion and climate change are often judged on non-objective criteria, and are thus unforeseen in the current trade regime. Enhancing the importance of these issues requires changes in both mentality and modus operandi. For example, aligning the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) managed by the World Trade Organization (WTO) to instruments such as the Paris Declaration and the CBD, provides the construct to legally binding trade relations that recognise and value ecosystem services. In the meantime, a trade agreement, which contemplates embedded commercial cooperation and private sector partnership models, guided by hybrid investment in nature conservation that generates economic development may serve to curb embedded deforestation consumption within the entire EU-Mercosur trade spectrum.

Europe using wood as biofuel will increase deforestation, warming •  Earth.com

{REFERENCE#3: DEFORESTATION OF EUROPE}:

FIGURE DOE-1: DEFORESTATION OF EUROPE

Image result for ancient european deforestation map | Deforestation,  Nature, Natural history

A HISTORY OF THE DEFORESTATION OF EUROPE:

LINK: https://www.wsl.ch/staff/niklaus.zimmermann/papers/QuatSciRev_Kaplan_2009.pdf

Humans have transformed Europe’s landscapes since the establishment of the first agricultural societies in the mid-Holocene. The most important anthropogenic alteration of the natural environment was the clearing of forests to establish cropland and pasture, and the exploitation of forests for fuel wood and construction materials.

While the archaeological and paleo-ecological record documents the time history of anthropogenic deforestation at numerous individual sites, to study the effect that prehistoric and preindustrial deforestation had on continental-scale carbon and water cycles we require spatially explicit maps of changing forest cover through time. Previous attempts to map preindustrial anthropogenic land use and land cover change addressed only the recent past, or relied on simplistic extrapolations of present day land use patterns to past conditions. In this study we created a very high resolution, annually resolved time series of anthropogenic deforestation in Europe over the past three millennia by 1) digitizing and synthesizing a database of population history for Europe and surrounding areas, 2) developing a model to simulate anthropogenic deforestation based on population density that handles technological progress, and 3) applying the database and model to a gridded dataset of land suitability for agriculture and pasture to simulate spatial and temporal trends in anthropogenic deforestation. Our model results provide reasonable estimations of deforestation in Europe when compared to historical accounts. We simulate extensive European deforestation at 1000 BC, implying that past attempts to quantify anthropogenic perturbation of the Holocene carbon cycle may have greatly underestimated early human impact on the climate system.

FIGURE DOE-2: DEFORESTATION OF EUROPE#2

Since the establishment of the first agricultural societies in Europe in the mid-Holocene (Price, 2000), humans have substantially altered the European landscape. The most evident and influential of these anthropogenic land cover and land use changes (LCLUC) has probably been the clearance of forests and woodlands for cropland and pasture and as a source of fuel wood and construction materials (Darby, 1956; Hughes and Thirgood, 1982). The rich paleoecological and archaeological record in Europe provides ample evidence that many European regions experienced intensive, continuous human occupation throughout the Holocene (e.g., Clark et al., 1989; Brewer et al., 2008; for a review see also Dearing, 2006). Indeed, some regions of Europe probably experienced successive cycles of deforestation, abandonment, afforestation, and deforestation again in the 6000 years of human history preceding the Industrial Revolution (e.g., Behre, 1988; Bintliff, 1993; Lagerås et al. 1995; Berglund, 2000; Vermoere et al., 2000; Cordova and Lehman, 2005; Gaillard, 2007). This long history of anthropogenic activity had important implications for environmental change, from regional hydrology to possibly global climate, and contains lessons for our understanding of what constitutes environmental sustainability.

DEFORESTATION OF EUROPE DATA FROM KAPLAN ETAL 2009: LINK: https://www.wsl.ch/staff/niklaus.zimmermann/papers/QuatSciRev_Kaplan_2009.pdf

FIGURE DOE-3: DEFORESTATION OF EUROPE#3

GLOBAL DATA FOR FOREST COVER PROVIDED BY WIKIPEDIA: LINK: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_forest_area_(percentage)

EIGHTEEN GLOBAL LEADERS IN FOREST COVER PRESERVATION ARE IDENTIFIED AMONG COUNTRIES WITH MORE THAN 200,000 SQ KM OF FOREST. THE OUTLIERS ARE BRAZIL AND RUSSSIA WITH MORE THAN 5 MILLION SQ KM OF FOREST. THE TOTAL FOREST AREA IN THIS SAMPLE OF 18 COUNTRIES IS 35.7 MILLION SQ KM.

GLOBAL FOREST COVER CHART#1: TOTAL FOREST COVER OF GLOBAL LEADERS

GLOBAL FOREST COVER CHART#2: PERCENT FOREST COVER OF GLOBAL LEADERS

Global Forest Cover Chart#1 and #2 above are a comparison of the top 18 countries in the world in terms of the fraction of the land area of the country covered by forest. To avoid the insignificant statistics of a large number of tiny countries with large fractional forest cover, we limited the size of the country to a minimum of 200,000 square kilometers (SQKM) down to and including Cameroon 212,450 SQKM but excluding Malaysia 195,200 SQKM.

Chart#1: shows that most of the countries in our sample fall into the category of less than a million SQKM (200,000 to 1,000,000 SQKM). There are two dramatic outliers these being Brazil at 5 million and Russia at 7 million SQKM.

Chart#2: The relevant parameter in this study is percent forest because it is a measure of deforestation. Countries with higher percent forest are considered better at managing the deforestation problem while those with lower percent forest may have a deforestation problem as a national forestry management issue.

TOP 6 PERFORMERS: We divide the sample of 18 countries into three groups of 6 as follows. In Chart#2 we find that the top 6 performers in forest preservation are 1. Mozambique, 2. Sweden, 3. Japan, 4. Zimbabwe, 5. Myanmar, and 6. Papua. This list contains 2 rich industrialized countries and 4 poor developing countries and only 1 European country (Sweden).

BOTTOM 6 PERFORMERS: In the bottom 6 performers we find 13. Congo, 14. Russia, 15. Angola, 16. Indonesia, 17. Tanzania, and 18. France. The only other European country in the list is in the bottom in terms of forest preservation. Though the Europeans are very active in the forest preservation campaign urging other nations to preserve their forests, or becoming actively involved in forest preservation in other countries, they are not very good at in their homeland. The European effort to manage the world’s forests appears grossly inconsistent with their forest management and forest preservation achievements at home.

Uncontacted Indians of Brazil

The Last Forest: The Amazon in the Age of Globalization: London, Mark,  Kelly, Brian: 9780679643050: Amazon.com: Books
This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is ama3.jpg

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS:

THE HISTORICAL CONTEXT OF THE WEALTH, POWER, AND GLOBAL REACH OF THE INDUSTRIALIZED EUROPEAN COUNTRIES {THE GLOBAL NORTH} SHOWS A PATTERN OF DEFORESTATION IN WHICH THE EXTENT OF THEIR RISE TO WEALTH, GLOBAL POWER, AND COLONIZATION OF THE GLOBAL SOUTH IS RELATED TO THE EXTENT OF DEFORESTATION. YET, NOW THAT THE EXTENSIVE FORESTATION OF EUROPE HAS BEEN CLEARED, THE EUROPEANS HAVE IDENTIFIED A NEED FOR FOREST COVER BY HUMANS FOR HUMAN WELFARE IN TERMS OF ENVIRONMENTALISM AND CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUES. THEY HAVE FURTHER DETERMINED THAT THESE ENVIRONMENTAL AND CLIMATE ISSUES IMPLY THAT CONTINUED EUROPEAN WELL BEING REQUIRES THAT THE DEFORESTATION OF EUROPE MUST BE COMPENSATED BY REFORESTATION AND FOREST PRESERVATION IN THEIR FORMER COLONIES IN THE GLOBAL SOUTH SUCH THAT FOR EXAMPLE, THE EUROPEANS AND NOT THE LOCAL RESIDENTS SHALL DETERMINE THE FOREST COVER NEEDED IN THE GLOBAL SOUTH.

HERE WE PROPOSE THAT THIS OUTREACH, THOUGH PRESENTED AS ASSISTANCE TO THE GLOBAL SOUTH IS IN FACT A NEW VERSION OF COLONIALISM WHERE THE GLOBAL NORTH IS STILL THE DECISION MAKER AND IN CHARGE OF THE INTERNAL AFFAIRS OF THE GLOBAL SOUTH AND THAT, AS IN THE COLONIAL DAYS, THE GLOBAL SOUTH MUST ULTIMATELY SERVE THE NEEDS OF THE GLOBAL NORTH.

RELATED POST#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/28/the-incredible-beauty-of-forest-cover/

RELATED POST#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/08/07/amazonia-lungs-of-the-earth/

RELATED POST#3: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/10/14/racism/

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POSTSCRIPT: A NOTE ON FIGHTING CLIMATE CHANGE WITH CARBON CYCLE INTERVENTIONS

Climate science is very clear on the issues of what causes global warming and how to mitigate global warming. This clarity is seen in a brief lecture by NASA Scientist Dr. Peter Griffith presented in a related post: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/06/19/vegandiet/ . What is explained there is that the issue in the science of anthropogenic global warming and climate change is fossil fuels. The carbon in fossil fuels is millions of years old and it does not belong in the current account of the carbon cycle. Therefore, the burning of fossil fuels injects external carbon dioxide that is foreign to the carbon cycle and that causes atmospheric CO2 to rise. The only solution to this problem proposed by climate science is that we must stop burning fossil fuels. This is what climate action means in the AGW context. It’s extension by environmentalists to carbon cycle management to offset fossil fuel emissions has no empirical support because carbon cycle flows cannot be measured. They can only be inferred and these inferred flows contain large uncertainties that make it impossible to support carbon cycle intervention methods of climate action empirical evidence. This issue is discussed in some detail in two related posts on this site: LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/05/31/the-carbon-cycle-measurement-problem/ LINK#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/06/10/a-monte-carlo-simulation-of-the-carbon-cycle/

salby
Deforestation Map Of Europe [Animated] - Tony Mapped It

Industrial Revolution | Jasper Liang
FROM INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION TO COLONIALISM

THIS POST IS A STUDY OF THE CONNECTION BETWEEN THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION OF THE 18/19TH CENTURY AND THE CLIMATE MOVEMENT OF OUR TIME IN THE CONTEXT OF THE BIFURCATION OF THE WORLD BY THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION.

The Global History Explorer: Unit 7 Lesson 4, Focus: Why did the Industrial  Revolution Lead to Imperialism?
COLONIALISM PART-2

THE CLIMATE CRISIS IS A CREATION OF THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION: The theory of catastrophic human caused global warming holds that it was created by the Industrial Revolution which initiated the burning of fossil fuels in significant quantities and in a steeply rising trend. The carbon in fossil fuels is millions of years old and not part of the current account of the carbon cycle. Its injection into the atmosphere is therefore an unnatural perturbation of the carbon cycle that causes atmospheric CO2 to rise and that in turn causes global mean surface temperature (GMST) to also rise by way of the greenhouse effect of CO2. Therefore, rising atmospheric CO2 causes rising GMST and rising GMST year after year is understood as global warming and because it is a creation of the industrial revolution of humans, we describe it as anthropogenic global warming (AGW). What makes it a crisis is that climate science has determined that (1) rising GMST will intensify harmful climate events such as droughts, floods, heat waves, and tropical cyclones, that (2) the warming can and must be stopped by the climate action of eliminating global fossil fuel emissions to reach zero emissions, and that (3) if the amount of warming since the most recent non-industrial and natural temperature of pre-industrial times exceeds the critical threshold of 1.5C of Warming Since Pre-industrial (WSPI), the warming will no longer be controllable because at that temperature, natural feedbacks, such as lower albedo and release of natural greenhouse gases, will take over as the primary drivers of warming such that climate action in the form of cutting fossil fuel emissions will no longer serve as the control knob to attenuate the rate of warming.

CLIMATE ACTION AGAINST AGW: The important conclusion of this analysis is that the whole world must cooperate and participate in the essential matter of reducing GLOBAL fossil fuel emissions to zero before we get to the critical WSPI temperature of 1.5C. Only then will the rising GMST cease. Without rising atmospheric CO2 there will be no rising GMST as long as the zero emissions target is reached before the critical WSPI. This end of global warming by way of global climate action against global fossil fuel emissions is the ultimate goal of the climate change movement against fossil fuels. THE ROLE OF THE UNITED NATIONS in climate action is that it is a global body with a global reach that can and must get the world to agree to a global climate action plan to cut global fossil fuel emissions. The assumed ability of the UN to carry out this role is derived from its apparent success in the Montreal Protocol global compact against refrigerants that cause emissions of ozone depleting substances.

Global Climate Action Image - EWPG Holding AB (publ)
GLOBAL CLIMATE ACTION

THE GLOBAL CLIMATE ACTION FUNCTION OF THE UNITED NATIONS: The extent to which this effort needs to be global is seen in the United Nation’s Sustainable Development program (SDG) described in a related post: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/03/06/sdg/ where even the UNDP, an organization created to end poverty is now charged with getting its poverty stricken clients to fight climate change instead. The global nature of the climate action movement and the role of the United Nations derived from the apparent success of the Montreal Protocol, is that the United Nations, in the context of its assumed global environmental function embodied in the creation of the UNEP, shall take charge of climate action to forge a global climate action agreement.

poverty
SDG: SUSTAINABLE DEV ELOPMENT

THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION IS A CREATION OF THE GLOBAL NORTHAs described in a related post on this site: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/10/14/racism/ , the unresolved and confounding complexities of the failed global climate action movement and the complicated classification of nations in terms of their role in the global emission reduction compact by the UN described in a related post LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/01/04/a-montreal-protocol-for-the-climate/ is best understood in the context of the industrial revolution that created two very different worlds on earth as the Global North of the rich industrialized nations and the Global South of the poor third world countries and the former colonies of the Global North.

British Empire | Countries, Map, At Its Height, & Facts | Britannica

THE CLIMATE CHANGE ALARM OF OUR TIME IS A CREATION OF THE GLOBAL NORTH: The first AGW climate change paper was Callendar 1938 published by the Royal Society. Although it was well received and taken seriously, the warming world of Guy Callendar’s time ran into the 1970s cooling anomaly within a decade of publication when fears of warming quickly turned to fears of a return to the Little Ice Age. Soon after this 30-year cooling period, the world began warming again in the 1970s and British Climate Scientist Peter Cox traces the the beginning of AGW to the late 1970s while American James Hansen traces it to 1950 – the coldest segment of the 1970s cooling. The standard position of climate science on this issue is the IPCC position that traces the beginning of AGW to the Industrial Revolution.

James Hansen: Extreme Heat Events Connected to Climate Change - YouTube

THE GLOBAL NORTH AND THE GLOBAL SOUTH ARE TWO DIFFERENT WORLDS IN THE AGW CONTEXT. AGW, the anthropogenic global warming and climate change movement of our time is best understood as the Global North’s hindsight that the fossil fueled industrial revolution had been done all wrong because of the use of fossil fuels. Their position on this issue may be stated as “We, the Global North, did the Industrial Revolution all wrong and so we must rewind and do it right“.

THIS ARGUMENT AND ITS LOGICAL IMPLICATIONS HAVE NO RELEVANCE FOR THE GLOBAL SOUTH. The complex categories of nations and their complicated climate action roles in the UNFCCC are best understood in this context. Yet, the UNFCCC complications notwithstanding, there is no context for the Global South in this logic.

The climate crisis and the climate crisis movement against fossil fuels are both creations of the Global North and they are relevant only to the Global North in terms of the context of rewind and do the Industrial Revolution correctly because the Industrial Revolution is a creation of the Global North and their love hate relationship with it can only be understood in that context. Therefore, although climate change is a global issue, its cause and the need for climate action as stated in AGW science can only be understood as a Global North issueIf the Global North needs to cut emissions in the Global South it must do so at no cost or hardship to be borne by the Global South. In addition, if the Global North admits that they screwed up their Industrial Revolution and caused global harm, they must pay the appropriate compensation to the affected.

Third World poverty is on the run

This chasm between North and South that makes it impossible to understand climate action as a global issue is illustrated in a related post in terms of carbon footprints: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/10/22/carbon-footprints/ . The relevant images in that post are reproduced below under the title “CARBON FOOTPRINTS”. 

What these images demonstrate is that though climate change is a global issue and understood in global terms, climate action cannot be understood in global terms because it is a creation of the Global North’s industrial revolution gone wrong that must be fixed by the Global North.

If energy systems in the Global South need an overhaul to correct the global warming crisis created by the industrial revolution of the Global North, then they and only they are responsible and fully liable to correct the wrong they have done and the harm they have caused worldwide.

How the super rich conquered London

CARBON FOOTPRINTS

NEW ZEALAND: 7.8 TONS/PER CAPITA

Footprints Computer Icons, footprints, miscellaneous, text png | PNGEgg
Dunedin been named as the most beautiful city. And it's not because of the  only's castles in the country! Dunedin has been crowned New Zealand's most  beautiful city for 2018 at the

CENTRAL AFRICA REPUBLIC: 0.1 TONS PER CAPITA

The Environmental Footprint Family - bringing clarity to the crowded field  of footprint studies | EU Science Hub
62% of the country lives in poverty | Central african, Country life, Photo

IRELAND: 8.1 TONS PER CAPITA

Footprints Computer Icons, footprints, miscellaneous, text png | PNGEgg
Best and worst things about living in Dublin

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO 0.1 TONS PER CAPITA

The Environmental Footprint Family - bringing clarity to the crowded field  of footprint studies | EU Science Hub
Muslims of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

NORWAY 8.8 TONS PER CAPITA

Footprints Computer Icons, footprints, miscellaneous, text png | PNGEgg
15 Best Cities to Visit in Norway (with Map & Photos) - Touropia

SUDAN 0.4 TONS PER CAPITA

The Environmental Footprint Family - bringing clarity to the crowded field  of footprint studies | EU Science Hub
Figures of the week: Fragility and extreme poverty

GERMANY 9.6 TONS PER CAPITA

Footprints Computer Icons, footprints, miscellaneous, text png | PNGEgg
Berlin 2019 - LONGINES GLOBAL CHAMPIONS TOUR

BANGLADESH: 0.5 TONS PER CAPITA

The Environmental Footprint Family - bringing clarity to the crowded field  of footprint studies | EU Science Hub
The Ultimate Guide to Backpacking in Bangladesh - Lost With Purpose

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: 16.3 TONS PER CAPITA

Footprints Computer Icons, footprints, miscellaneous, text png | PNGEgg
Prettiest cities in the US - Insider

CAMBODIA: 0.6 TONS PER CAPITA

The Environmental Footprint Family - bringing clarity to the crowded field  of footprint studies | EU Science Hub
Made in Cambodia: How women in poverty are supplying America's market for  hair

CONCLUSIONCLIMATE CHANGE IS A RICH MAN’S GAME: YOU HAVE TO GET RICH FIRST BEFORE YOU CAN WORRY ABOUT BEING RICH

Associated Press News

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL EVALUATION OF THE ASSOCIATED PRESS REPORT THAT “Global Warming Already Baked In Will Blow Past Climate Goals, a New Study Says”.

Global Warming Already Baked In Will Blow Past Climate Goals, a New Study  Says - Covid 19 Cloth Mask Guide - Reviews, News & DIY Masks

THIS ASSESSSMENT BY THE ASSOCIATED PRESS DERIVES FROM A RESEARCH PAPER BY DESSLER ETAL

How to Talk to Your Kids About Climate Change by Harriet Shugarman |  Audiobook | Audible.com

PART-1: WHAT THE AP ARTICLE SAYS

The amount of baked-in global warming, from carbon pollution already in the air, is enough to blow past international agreed upon goals to limit climate change, a new study finds. But it’s not game over because, while that amount of warming may be inevitable, it can be delayed for centuries if the world quickly stops emitting extra greenhouse gases from the burning of coal, oil and natural gas, the study’s authors say. For decades, scientists have talked about so-called “committed warming” or the increase in future temperature based on past carbon dioxide emissions that stay in the atmosphere for well over a century. It’s like the distance a speeding car travels after the brakes are applied. But Monday’s study in the journal Nature Climate Change calculates that a bit differently and now figures the carbon pollution already put in the air will push global temperatures to about 2.3C. International climate agreements set goals of limiting warming to 2C since pre-industrial (SPI), with the more ambitious goal of limiting it to 1.5C SPI added in Paris in 2015. The world has already warmed about 1.1C SPI.

Climate scientist Andrew Dessler explains the baked in theory: “You’ve got some global warming inertia that’s going to cause the climate system to keep warming. Think about the climate system like the Titanic. It’s hard to turn the ship when you see the icebergs. (a reference to inertia). Dessler etal calculated committed warming based on the assessment that the world has warmed at different rates in different places and that places that haven’t warmed as fast will catch up. Places such as the Southern Ocean, surrounding Antarctica are a bit cooler, and that difference creates low-lying clouds that reflect more sun away from earth, keeping these places cooler. But this situation can’t keep going indefinitely because physics dictates that cooler locations will warm up more and when they do, the clouds will dwindle and more heating will occur.

Outside experts said the work is based on compelling reasoning, but want more research to show that it’s true. Breakthrough Institute climate scientist Zeke Hausfather said the new work fits better with climate models than observational data. Just because the world is bound to get more warming than international goals, that doesn’t mean all is lost in the fight against global warming, said Dessler. {translation: we still need climate action} If the world gets to net zero carbon emissions soon, 2 degrees of global warming could be delayed enough so that it won’t happen for centuries, giving society time to adapt or even come up with technological fixes, he said.If we don’t, we’re going to blow through (climate goals) in a few decades, Dessler said. “It’s really the rate of warming that makes climate change so terrible. If we got a few degrees over 100,000 years, that would not be that big a deal. We can deal with that. But a few degrees over 100 years is really bad.”

Andrew Dessler: The Certain Climate Alarmist – Watts Up With That?

In one of his many research papers on climate change Dr. Dessler writes: I estimated the magnitude of the cloud feedback in response to short-term climate variations by analyzing the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget from March 2000 to February 2010. Over this period, the short-term cloud feedback had a magnitude of “0.54 ± 0.74 (2σ) watts per square meter per kelvin, meaning that it is likely positive” {Dessler, Andrew E. “A determination of the cloud feedback from climate variations over the past decade.” Science 330.6010 (2010): 1523-1527}. Yet, a finding that the mean is 0.54 and the standard deviation is 0.37 does not imply that we know this phenomenon well enough to make forecasts. Standard deviation is a measure of ignorance and not a measure of “look how high it could be”. This issue is discussed in some detail in a related post: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/04/22/climate-science-uncertainty/ where we explore the statistical impossibility of the usual climate science position that the less they know the scarier it gets to show that a large uncertainty does not mean “oh look how high it could be”. It means that we don’t really know. The less we now the higher it COULD be and in perfect ignorance it COULD be as high as infinity because the answer is not constrained by information. Ignorance is not information. Therefore the finding that the cloud feedback effect on warming is 0.54 plus or minus 0.74 does not mean oh look it could be as high as 1.28. It means that we don’t know.

This kind of bias in climate science is well established and supported by the argument that the assumed danger of climate change makes it impossible for climate science to carry out objective and unbiased scientific inquiry. Climate scientist James Hansen explains this principle in climate science as follows: Scientific reticence hinders communication with the public about the dangers of global warming. It is important that policy-makers recognize the potential influence of this phenomenon. Scientific reticence may be a consequence of the scientific method. Success in science depends on objective skepticism. Scientific reticence has its merits. However, in a case such as ice sheet instability and sea level rise, there is a danger of excessive reticence“. TRANSLATION: ADHEFRENCE TO UNBIASED OBJECTIVE SCIENTIFIC INQUIRY INTERFERES WITH CLIMATE ACTIVISM.

COP21: James Hansen, the father of climate change awareness, claims Paris  agreement is a 'fraud' | The Independent | The Independent

Fear based activism by climate scientists for climate action is deeply interwoven into their science so much so that a pattern has emerged where the fear is extended to the point where climate action is no longer an option as in the so called tipping point where climate change becomes self driven and out of control. That implies of course that climate action is no longer an option. At this point climate science, having realized what they have done, quickly back peddles saying that “there is still time” if we act quickly to cut emissions. Many of these tipping points have come and gone in this comical cycle. If there is still time it wasn’t a tipping point.

Some examples are listed below. More can be found in a related post on this topic: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/02/22/old-climate-fears-revisited/

  1. 2004 GLOBAL WARMING WILL LEAVE ARCTIC ICE FREE The Arctic ice cap is shrinking at an unprecedented rate and will be gone by 2070. It has shrunk by 15%to 20% in the last 30 years. This process will accelerate with the Arctic warming twice as fast as the rest of the world due to a buildup of heat trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The findings support the broad scientific consensus that global warming is caused mainly by rising atmospheric greenhouse gases as a result of emissions from cars, factories and power plants.
  2. 2005: HURRICANE KATRINA WAS CAUSED BY OUR USE OF FOSSIL FUELS A high level of interest in tropical cyclones derives from an unusually active hurricane season in 2004 when more than 14 tropical cyclones formed in the North Atlantic basin. Four of these storms intensified to Category 4 or greater and made landfall in the USA causing considerable damage. The even more dramatic 2005 season followed in its heels with more than thirty depressions. Four of them intensified to Category 5 and three made landfall. The most intense was Hurricane Wilma but the most spectacular was Hurricane Katrina which made landfall in Florida and again in Louisiana. Its devastation was facilitated by a breach in a levee system that was unrelated to AGW but its dramatic consequences made it an icon of the possible extreme weather impacts of fossil fuel caused global warming. Climate scientists stepped up quickly and said that Katrina was confirmed as a climate change even by climate models. More info: [LINK]
  3. 2005: METHANE BOMB IN THE PEAT BOGS OF SIBERIA Man-made global warming is melting the vast peat bogs of Siberia. The melt will release enough methane and carbon dioxide to bring about climate change Armageddon by virtue of a positive feedback and its non-linear process gone berserk. This scare is repeated in 2007 saying that global warming is causing the Alaska coast to melt. More info: [LINK]
  4. 2006: CORAL DOOMED TO EXTINCTION BY GLOBAL WARMING Climate scientists see all coral bleaching as anomalous and unnatural and therefore symptoms of human caused global warming, as if they had never seen coral bleaching before. In 2006, they issued an alarm that “it was already too late for the coral” because we have put too much CO2 into the atmosphere and the warming and acidification of the oceans thus caused will kill off all the world’s coral. More info: [LINK]
  5. 2007: WE PASSED THE CLIMATE CHANGE TIPPING POINT AND ARE DOOMED. Ahead of the Bali meeting in 2007, climate scientists flooded the media with press releases that were increasingly alarmist in their pitch to save the planet from fossil fuels, so much so that they got carried away and announced that it was too late to save the planet for we had passed the tipping point. The damage done by the carbon dioxide already in the air had put into motion irreversible non-linear changes that would lead us to climate doom whether or not we cut emissions. Soon thereafter, having realized their folly, they quickly reversed themselves just in time for Bali by saying that there was still time to save the planet if we act quickly and decisively.
  6. 2009: WE ARE APPROACHING THE ABYSS OF CLIMATE CHANGEBetween 2005 and 2007 the UN repeatedly declares that we have passed the tipping point and that it is “already too late to late. The planet is doomed. But in 2009, Ban Ki Moon contradicts his staff and describes the effect of carbon dioxide emissions on climate as “our foot is stuck on the accelerator and we are heading towards an abyss”. That we are not at the abyss yet and there is till time to act. More info: [LINK]
Tipping Points Confuse Social and Earth Science | Science Matters

THE CLIMATE SCIENCE OF FOSSIL FUELED GLOBAL WARMING:

The essence of the climate science of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) and the implied climate action needed is that since the industrial revolution, humans have been burning fossil fuels. The carbon in fossil fuels is millions of years old and therefore not part of the current account of the carbon cycle but something external to it that therefore causes the atmospheric CO2 concentration to rise. The greenhouse effect of atmospheric CO2 implies that at any given concentration, the mean global surface temperature will be proportional to the logarithm of atmospheric CO2 concentration. Therefore, as humans burn fossil fuels and increase atmospheric CO2 the temperature rises. This sequence of higher and higher global mean surface temperature due higher and higher atmospheric CO2 levels caused by continued human fossil fuel emissions is understood as global warming and because it is caused by the fossil fuel emissions of humans, the warming is also understood as anthropogenic global warming or AGW.

The theory also holds that rising global mean surface temperature (GMST) creates the possibility that the temperature will reach a point where it is warm enough to initiate natural positive feedback warming that feeds on itself by way of mechanisms such as melting ice and the release of methane from methane hydrates. The GMST at which this natural feedback mechanism will be initiated was thought to be 5C of warming since pre-industrial but over the years, climate science has gradually lowered this critical value of GMST to 4C then to 3C and to 2C and finally in 2018 an IPCC special report lowered this dangerous level of GMST that must not be breached to 1.5C. We are told that currently we have warmed 1C since pre-industrial (or perhaps it is as high as 1.1C claimed in the source document being reviewed here. In any case, the GMST is still below the critical value of 1.5C.

The reference article proposes a wholesale overhaul of climate science where the critical value of GMST at which feedbacks will take over as an unstoppable warming mechanism is further lowered from 1.5C to 1.1C. A new feedback mechanism is proposed as low cloud feedback as a feedback that will cause regional differences in global temperatures to vanish leaving the world with a uniform GMST that will be higher and higher until it takes us to the critical GMST of 1.5C and its planet destroying feedback warming beyond our ability to mediate. A new tipping point that will take us to the old tipping point. In other words what we have here is more tipping point weirdness. It implies that we no longer have a rational motivation for climate action. As in the other tipping points cited in the list above, the declaration of the tipping point is quickly followed with the “but there is still time” clause that a rapid shutdown of fossil fuel emissions can avoid this apocalyptic scenario.

Three Stooges - Fuelin' Around (Dervish Minisode) - YouTube

THE CREDIBILITY OF THESE CLAIMS IS GREATLY DIMINIHSED BY THESE INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE FUNDAMENTAL CONCEPTS IN MAINSTREAM CLIMATE SCIENCE AND ALSO BY THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY IN THE CLOUD FEEDBACK MECHANISM BEING PROPOSED. AS IN THE COMICAL LIST OF PRIOR TIPPING POINTS WHERE “THERE IS STILL TIME IF WE ACT QUICKLY” THIS NEW THEORY THAT IS INCONSISTENT WITH CLIMATE CHANGE THEORY IS BEST UNDERSTOOD AS DESPERATION CLIMATE ACTVISM. SUCH EXTREME MEASURES IN CLIMATE SCIENCE IMPLY ONLY THAT THEIR ACTIVISM AGAINST FOSSIL FUELS IS NOT GOING WELL AND THAT IT NEEDS THESE EXTREME AND UNSUPPORTED ARGUMENTS IN A FEAR BASED ACTIVISM AGAINST FOSSIL FUELS.

Earth has 'now reached 9 climate change tipping points' as top scientists  warn of 'domino effect' catastrophe

Global Climate Action Summit | UCLG

CLIMATE SCIENCE HOLDS THAT THE CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUE IS GLOBAL AND THAT THEREFORE THE NEEDED CLIMATE ACTION MUST ALSO BE GLOBAL SO THAT GLOBAL FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS MUST BE BROUGHT DOWN TO ZERO WITH A GLOBAL COMPACT AMONG ALL NATIONS OF THE WORLD BECAUSE GLOBAL WARMING IS A GLOBAL ISSUE. IT IS FURTHER CLAIMED THAT THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL, A GLOBAL AGREEMENT TO REDUCE AND ELIMINATE THE PRODUCTION AND USE OF OZONE DESTROYING SUBSTANCES SERVES AS A MODEL FOR THE NEEDED CLIMATE IMPACT.

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL EVALUATION OF THE ASSUMPTION IN THIS ARGUMENT THAT THE SUCCESS OF THE MONTREAL PROTCOL PROVIDES THE EVIDENCE THAT SUCH A GLOBAL AGREEMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN CLIMATE CHANGE.

A large number of analytical studies and opinions have been published in the popular press where a comparison of the ozone depletion crisis with the climate crisis of our time in terms of their global nature is used to propose that the success of the Montreal Protocol in global human emissions of ozone depleting substances provides the evidence that a corresponding global compact is also possible for arresting anthropogenic global warming by elimination all fossil fuel emissions globally.

Based on the assumption of the comparability of the ozone depletion and the climate change issues, these studies propose in essence that global climate action to arrest the rate of warming is possible by forging a Montreal Protocol for fossil fuel emissions. These published analyses that propose a Montreal Protocol for climate action, compare the global warming / climate action issue with the ozone depletion issue with the assumption that these issues are comparable. YET, AS SHOWN IN THE RELATED POSTS LISTED BELOW, THESE TWO ISSUES ARE NOT COMPARABLE.

HOW BUREAUCRATS LIE WITH BUZZWORDS | Thongchai Thailand

LIST OF POSTS ON THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

  1. LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/01/04/a-montreal-protocol-for-the-climate/
  2. LINK#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/12/27/the-hole-in-the-sky/
  3. LINK#3: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/12/21/ozone-hole-environmentalism/
  4. LINK#4: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/30/the-unep-healed-the-ozone-hole/
  5. LINK#5: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/25/climate-alarm-of-11-25-2020/
  6. LINK#6: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/04/the-ozone-hole-of-2020/
  7. LINK#7: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/24/an-ode-to-mario-molina/

Prior to 2009 I felt that supporting the IPCC consensus on climate change was the responsible thing to do. I had bought into the argument that we should not trust what one scientist says but that we should trust what an international team of scientists says after years of careful deliberation. That all changed for me in November 2009 following the leak of the Climategate emails that illustrated the sausage making and bullying that went into making the consensus. I started speaking out saying that scientists needed to do better at making the data and supporting information publicly available, being more transparent about how they reach conclusions, doing a better job of assessing uncertainties, and actively engaging with scientists having minority perspectives.

Climategate: Anatomy of a Scandal – Mother Jones
CLIMATEGATE

The response of my colleagues to this assessment is summed up by the title of a 2010 article in the Scientific American. “Climate Heretic Judith Curry turns on her colleagues. I came to the growing realization that I had fallen into the trap of Group-Think. I had accepted the consensus based on second order evidence. The assertion that a consensus existed. I began making an independent assessment of all topics in climate science that had the most relevance in terms of policy. Here is what I concluded from that assessment.

State of the U.S. Climate Debate Judith Curry Georgia Institute of  Technology Climate Forecast Applications Network science. - ppt download

Human caused climate change is a theory in which the basic mechanism is well understood but the magnitude is highly uncertain. No one questions that surface temperatures have increased overall since 1880 or that humans are adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, or that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases have a warming effect on the planet. However there is considerable uncertainty and disagreement about the most consequential issues. These issues are (1) whether the warming has been dominated by human caused drivers versus natural variability. (2) How much the planet will warm in the 21st century, (3) And whether warming is dangerous.

Uncertainty: recognizing uncertainty and responding constructively in…

The central issue in the scientific debate on climate change is the extent to which the recent and future warmings are caused by humans versus natural climate variability. Research focus and funding has focused on understanding human causes of climate change. However we have been misled in our quest to understand climate change by not paying sufficient attention to natural causes of climate variability in particular from the sun and from long term oscillations in ocean circulations. Why do scientists disagree about climate change? (1) Historical data are sparse and inadequate. (2) There is disagreement about the value of different classes of evidence, notably the value of global climate models. (3) There is disagreement about the appropriate logicfal framework for linking and asse3ssing the evidence. (4) And scientists disagree over assessments in areas of ambiguity and ignorance.

How reliable are climate models?

How then and why have climate scientists come to a consensus about a very complex scientific problem that the scientists themselves acknowledge has substantial and fundamental uncertainties. Climate scientists have become entangled in an acrimonious political debate that has polarized the scientific community.

IPCC Report inspires collective leadership from industry leaders - The  Porto Protocol

As a result of my analyses that challenge IPCC conclusions, I have been called “THE DENIER” by other climate scientists and most recently by Senator Sheldon Whitehouse. My motives have been questioned by Representative Griolva in a recent letter sent to the President of Georgia Tech.

About Sheldon

There is enormous pressure for climate scientists to conform to the so called consensus. This pressure comes not only from politicians but from Federal funding agencies, universities, professional societies, and from scientists themselves who are also green activists. Reinforcing this consensus are strong monetary, reputational, and authority interests.

In this politicized environment advocating for carbon dioxide emission reductions is becoming the default expected position for climate scientists. This advocacy extends to the professional societies that publish journals and organize conferences.

Policy advocacy when combined with understating the uncertainties risks destroying the reputation of science for honesty and objectivity without which scientists become merely another lobbyist group. I thank the committee for raising the issue of data versus dogma in the issue of improving the integrity of climate science.

THE SOURCE YOUTUBE VIDEO

A selection of comments posted on Youtube under this video.

that will benefit from so called “climate change” which used to be called “global warming ” until stats showed there has been no warming over the last 20 years.

Climate change is NORMAL.

The ex-prime Minister for Australia has millions invested in carbon credit schemes, so what policies and industries do you think he will subsidise with tax payer money to enrich himself.

Politicians NEVER do anything for the PEOPLE who pay their salaries … they are driven only by self interest.

And guess who the people are who approve the government “research” funds to universities to prove that global warming, climate change and CO2 being the cause is real … Politicians and their elite masters and lobbyists of course … it is one big scam.

Remember this “global warming” scam was started by a politician NOT a concerned group of scientists … they came afterwards when the research money flowed.

I have personally sat in meetings in the pharmaceutical industry where the same crap goes on. The universities are given a brief of what outcome the pharmaceutical company wants and hey presto that’s exactly what they get back … you get what you pay for.

There are some truthful scientific people alive. Well done, the science and numbers have been doctored to Suite the government narrative of the UN, follow the money.

Anyone who believes it’s a forgone conclusion that the vast majority of climatologists/meteorologists believe that climate change is substantially anthropogenic, harmful, and that we have a comprehensive understanding of the mind-boggling multivariate mechanisms involved is lazy and non-critical-thinking. Once one really digs into the data and thoroughly investigates the arguments on both sides of this aisle, they will come to resoundingly conclude that the preponderance of evidence doesn’t even remotely support this viewpoint.

Further, they will have to grapple with the truth that many of these “scientists” aren’t scientists at all. A fundamental and mandatory characterological trait of being a scientist is to follow the data wherever it leads, even if it directly contradicts your pet hypotheses and you have to completely reverse your view. Anyone not drawing conclusions on a well-reasoned, fair, and non-overstated/non-redacted treatment the data alone is not a scientist at all, regardless what school or level of degree they’ve attained.

Is “climatology” a recognized natural and geo-physical science? I would posit that it is a pseudo-science like psychology and environmental science.

It is TOO late to worry about the climate!
No need for climatologists to TRY to CONVINCE narrow-minded, stubborn-minded, self-deluded politicians!

I don’t know when this was recorded, but to hear her say that bad climate science is the fault of politicians and interest groups is beyond laughable. The “scientists” are the liberals who have been shoving this bad science down our throats since 1970. Politicians picked up on it later after the “media” made it a headline. It is lousy scientists who are responsible but I guess this woman doesn’t want to put the blame where it should be…on her own profession. Everyone wants to point a finger somewhere else.

All you got to do is read the Bible, it’s going to get warmer the water’s going to dry up and all that’s going to be left is blood to drink.because of the sins of man !

The poorest of scientists will not examine conflicting evidence or debate other approaches or opinions. The IPCC is packed with poor scientists.

The reputation of today’s science has already been destroyed since it has been proven that the moon landings were fake and the shape of the earth has now been proven to be flat. These so called “scientists” have warped and twisted the institution for personal and governmental agendas and alot of people are now waking up to the global warming scam.

We can sit around and speculate if global warming is real.But the delayed effects are in the pipe and are going to come out.Can we risk thermal runaway.If the scientists would just get cold fusion to work it would totally end global warming problems.Please do it.

There’s never being any climate change or anything, it’s all a fabricated lie to extort money 💰 from people lots and lots of money 💰

This is what it looks like when you’re getting blackmailed or paid off.

Stop paying carbon tax. Anyone with a brain knows it’s a con job. Planet earth has to produce more and more food as the population increases and therefore it needs more CO2 to make it grow. The best description I’ve heard about the effects of human producing CO2 is: it’s like a fart in the breeze.

IF CLIMATE CHANGE WAS REAL THE BANKS WOULDNT BE BUILDING WATER FRONT AND BEACHFRONT PROPERTIES ALL THE TIME AS RISING SEA LEVELS WOULD BE A RISK TO THERE INVESTMENT , AND SINCE CLIMATE CHANGE STARTED IN THE 70S AND BY NOW WE SHOULD BE UNDER WATER ITS BEEN ALMOST 50 YEARS , AND THE EARTH IS ACTUALLY GETTING COOLER WHEN IS THIS GLOBAL WARMING GOING TO KICK IN !!!!!

This is Maria, it was already been proofed that due to greed and not caring of consequence the humans losing their houses, their belongings even their lives. When the had cut so many trees that caused the lands to go dry and farmers could not run their farms because they were cutting so many trees. The government had to replant trees.. So please don’t try to cover the true with your finger.

Everyone needs to get behind this woman and the others challenging this cult like consensus.
She would really be feeling the weight on her shoulders right now, cos she’s going with the truth over the security of her job.

Unfortunately, this IS the history of “science”. Though the Galileo case is blamed on the Church, it was actually the traditional Aristotatilian “scientists” who refused to accept an alternative view. Aristotle had been “SETTLED SCIENCE” for 2000 years.

Denialist, heretic and consensus are not scientific terms, they are marketing terms

The reason why I reject the claims of climate evangelicals is because of 1 reason only. The proposed “solution” is centralized power decisions, increased confiscation of wealth, and social control of daily activities by a political body that is unaccountable to me or my elected officials. The solution if it were real would be more focused on actual polluters and less on consumers.

Still waiting for a scientific study that states
“50yrs from now the earth and the climate will be fine.”

Deforestation causes global warming that creates climate change.
Its not the Co2. It’s the lack of trees absorbing Ci2 and giving off oxygen.
There is an unequal balance between trees and the ocean basin.
Yes the ocean also absorbs Co2 and gives off oxygen.
Our oceans are also polluted.

All scientists need to do is stop taking money for lying.

So humans do not have to change what they are doing it is business as usual in fact we should be building more coal fired power stations as this woman has just blown the lid !

So what if you got lt wrong.

Stop drilling up there in Alaska and at north pole …hot water doesnt help….climate change is normal it a seasonal changes there a diffrence in climate change and global change …some of us remember botney…

The climate is changing because those in power are changing it. They use chemtrails, HAARP and by starting wild fires and feeding and directing hurricanes. They blame all of humanity when they are manipulating us from behind the curtain. C02 is a requirement for plant life. Research and you will see this is correct.

This is all you need to know about “Climate Change” (if you know how to read a chart). https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-whats-warming-the-world/

It is self evident the whole thing is a scam, the only time governments come together isn’t for the benefit of their people but to line their own pockets. Welcome to the age of liars and open corruption!

Only those who rely upon government funding support the narrative of climate change, thereby continuing to receive funding and misleading the population, against geoengineering, weather modification being used to further agenda 21/30

It’s fairly logical that carbon fuel use creates pollution which can also create conditions for over-heating. It’s also becoming clearer that estimates of future damage have been greatly under stated – in the matter of coastal erosion for example and localised flooding events from increasingly extreme weather

Is global warming happing ; is global warming not happening ? Is not the issue , the real issue around global warming is ; is global warming being used for social control ? , is the real issue

The science world …their theories and facts are soon to be melted in a pot of unbelief. ..the world will be shaken this year and the waves will be roaring….l soon wonder how their theories will stand

Mmm. This looks interesting. “Climatologist Breaks the Silence on Global Warming Groupthink”
Wait: isn’t that Judith Curry, the well known conspiracist blogger? In what sense is this “breaking the silence”? Oh well

How about the prediction there will be no more ice on the North Pole ? Or in Greenland ? Or in the North Sea? The satellites show more ice, hasn’t anybody been keeping up with current events ?

Rep. Raúl Grijalva of Arizona tests positive for coronavirus
RAUL GRIJALVA

Throwing Fit GIFs | Tenor

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF THE ARTICLE: Back from the brink: how the world rapidly sealed a deal to save the ozone layer. LINK: https://www.rapidtransition.org/stories/back-from-the-brink-how-the-world-rapidly-sealed-a-deal-to-save-the-ozone-layer/ .

PART-1: WHAT THE ARTICLE SAYS

As a chorus of questions rises about whether the world can act quickly enough to prevent climate breakdown, one lesson from recent history suggests rapid action is possible. The ozone layer, a blanket of gas that exists between 10 and 50 kilometres above the earth’s surface, is vital for protecting humankind from the sun’s powerful ultraviolet radiation. In 1974 a group of scientists published research suggesting that chemicals used in everyday products like aerosols, packaging and refrigerators could deplete the ozone layer – vastly increasing the incidence of skin cancer, cataracts and other harms to humans and wildlife on earth. In 1985, the ozone depletion theory was clearly proven, when a hole in the ozone layer was discovered over Antarctica. The discovery of the hole was evidence that the magnitude of the problem was far greater than scientists had originally predicted. International alarm at the ozone layer’s thinning led to unprecedented multilateral action to ban the dangerous chemicals that were responsible for its deterioration – chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). By 1987, just two years after the hole was discovered, an international treaty was in place that cut the use of CFCs in half. Three years later in 1990, the Montreal Protocol was strengthened to ban the use of CFCs altogether in industrialised countries by the year 2000 and by the year 2010 in developing countries. Today, the use of CFCs is outlawed by 197 countries around the world and scientists concur that the ozone layer is slowly recovering as a result.

Overall, the success in addressing the ozone problem can give us hope that global environmental problems can and have been solved by humanity’s timely collective action.

The success in negotiating, strengthening and enforcing the Montreal Protocol should give hope to embattled climate change negotiators around the world – as it is evidence that multilateral initiatives can be effective in tackling the global environmental challenges we face. Although individual nation states fought for their own national interests throughout the Montreal negotiations, they did ultimately act in the interest of the global commons – and institute an outright ban on the use of CFCs. The Montreal Protocol not only binds its signatories to prohibit the use of CFCs in their jurisdictions, it also introduced sanctions that prohibited trade in certain chemicals with non-signatories, creating a significant incentive for countries to sign up. What is striking as well is the effectiveness of the implementation of Montreal Protocol. It is the only global treaty to achieve universal ratification of 197 countries, and has achieved a compliance rate of 98%. As such, Montreal is evidence of the effectiveness of outright bans. Since Montreal, such bans have been harder for governments to contemplate, but the effectiveness of the Protocol shows that governments can and have used their powers to drive rapid transitions away from harmful substances and for the benefit of the environment.

Also interesting and relevant to the challenges of the climate movement today was the success of citizen-led campaigning on the relatively abstract and remote environmental problem of ozone depletion. Behind the success of the multilateral negotiations was well organized civil society campaigning – both in the US and around the world. Environmental organisations coalesced around the issue of CFCs – and through inventive public campaigns managed to spur changes in consumer behaviour, including widespread boycotts of products and companies that used CFCs. Consumer pressure forced action by some US-based companies even before the government introduced bans on the use of CFCs. By the time the ban was in place, the market for CFCs had dwindled, making their phase out more feasible. Civil society action around CFCs extended beyond campaigning into directly driving industrial innovations. In 1992 when chemical companies attacked Greenpeace and their anti-CFC campaign for “criticizing and offering no solutions”, Greenpeace brought together a group of engineers to develop a prototype of a refrigerator that did not use CFCs. Within a few months, the engineers had developed a prototype for the “GreenFreeze” fridge – which used a mix of natural hydrocarbons instead of CFCs and so did not harm the ozone layer. Greenpeace subsequently founded a company to design and market GreenFreeze fridges, which ultimately revolutionised the domestic refrigeration sector – with more than a billion in use today. The role of key industry players in the phase out of CFCs also provides lessons for how business interests can be harnessed to pursue environmental goals. Initially the producers of CFCs were hostile to any regulation, but by the time the Montreal protocol was being considered, the market had changed and the possibilities of profiting from the production of CFC substitutes had greatly increased – favouring some of the larger producers that had begun to research alternatives. This diversity within industry was harnessed and an alliance formed between the environmental movement and those companies that ultimately stood to gain from the increased regulations. Following initial resistance, DuPont, the main industry player responsible for a quarter of global CFC production, backed the initial draft of the Montreal Protocol and its subsequent strengthening, in part because it could benefit from exporting alternatives to CFCs to the European market as a domestic ban on the nonessential use of CFCs as aerosol propellants had been introduced in the US in 1978, spurring innovation.

Context and background: Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are chemicals that were developed in the 1930s which, before they were banned, were used in a wide array of commercial and industrial processes. The household product that is most commonly associated with CFCs and the depletion of the ozone layer was aerosol sprays – such as deodorants or hair spray. But CFCs had many other uses including as a refrigerant – they were commonly used in fridges and air conditioners – as well as in Styrofoam packaging, solvents and fire extinguishers. As they are neither toxic nor flammable and relatively inexpensive to produce, CFCs were originally considered to be a miracle find for industry. By the 1970s there were produced and widely used by companies in the United States and Europe, and were increasingly employed by the industry of emerging economies such as China, Brazil and India. In 1974 a group of scientists published their ozone depletion theory – which held that CFC chemicals once airborne travelled to the stratosphere where they were broken down by the sun’s ultraviolet radiation. These atoms then bonded with ozone molecules – which led to the depletion of this protective gas layer. This theory was confirmed when, in 1985, scientists identified an annual thinning of the ozone layer over Antarctica every spring. The thinning of the ozone layer over Antarctica has had particularly dire impacts for Australia and New Zealand, which given their proximity to the ozone layer, suffer the highest rates of skin cancer in the world.

Enabling factors: Key to the rapid transition to phase out CFCs: The key was the widespread acceptance amongst the general public, business actors and world leaders of the severity and urgency of the problem; a consensus that was forged following the discovery of the ozone layer in 1985. However, the negotiations around the Montreal Protocol still had to handle the conflicting national interests of participating governments to reach a deal. The United States, a leader in the negotiations, was to a large extent influenced in its position by its business interests, which opposed any ban until 1986 when the company with the largest role in CFC production worldwide, DuPont, had developed successfully developed alternative chemicals. From this point forward, the US took the lead in pushing for a ban. European countries initially resisted this call until their own companies such as ICI had developed CFC substitutes, at which point they also agreed to the need for a ban. Developing countries were responsible for a comparatively small amount of CFC use, as 80% of CFCs were consumed in industrialized nations. However, emerging economies also resisted calls for a ban until an agreement was reached on financial assistance fund for technology transfer to the tune of $160 million. An important factor that positively influenced the negotiations was the strength of the environmental movement in the US, and its ability to harness a global network on the issue of CFCs. In the 1970s, when scientists first published their ozone depletion theory, the US environmental movement had been growing in strength and organisation. The ozone layer campaign became the first major unifying campaign of organisations like Friends of the Earth and Sierra Club. These groups led awareness raising actions that targeted the public and encouraged boycotts of everyday products that used CFCs such as aerosols. Friends of the Earth-USA launched a “Styro-Wars” campaign, a “Stratospheric Defense Initiative” aimed at eliminating CFCs from polystyrene food packaging and other consumer products. After a flood of letters from school children, McDonalds eventually committed to cut CFCs from its packaging in 1987. The ozone layer campaign allowed for the consolidation of a global movement of civil society actors around a common cause. US-based NGOs shared their inventive campaigning approaches and tactics, which saw similar campaigns – putting pressure on both governments and local businesses – being launched by civil society in countries around the world. The central role of business interests in driving the phase out CFCs must be highlighted. The cohesion of companies around the issue of CFCs can be explained by a few factors. First of all, the limited number of actors involved made it relatively easy to reach an agreement. Eighteen chemical companies accounted for most of the world’s production of CFCs in the early 1980s – mostly concentrated in the US, UK, France and Japan. DuPont was by far and away the most important player, producing around one quarter of the global output. This meant that once DuPont acted as the industry leader in the global negotiations, and once the company’s agreement for a ban was secured, the rest of the industry followed suit. Also important was the fact that, although the CFC market was important, it was not truly ‘big business’ – CFCs accounted for 3% of DuPont’s total sales. The final, and perhaps most crucial factor, in the speed of the phase out of CFCs following the discovery of the ozone layer was the technological innovations to develop alternative chemicals. Once the science and the gravity of the situation became clear, DuPont began investing heavily in research into substitutes. By 1986, DuPont had successfully developed alternative chemicals that did not harm the ozone layer, at which point it became in their interest to support international ban on CFCs. The US position to support a ban followed in line with DuPont, at which point that the path to Montreal was cleared.

POSTSCRIPT. There is a postscript to this global collaboration that is proving thorny but positive. The year 2016 saw a meeting in Kigali, Rwanda, to agree a phasedown of another set of gases, which had originally been intended as a quick fix for CFCs, called hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). While HFCs are safe for the ozone layer, they are a powerful greenhouse gas, a thousand times more potent than CO2 and a major contributor to climate change. In 2016, after nearly ten years of negotiations, more than 150 countries agreed to reduce their use of HFCs by 85 percent in the coming decades. However, the use of HFCs for air conditioning and refrigeration is growing at a fast pace in developing countries, in part because climate change is producing more and longer deadly heat waves and driving up summer temperatures. The Kigali Amendment to the Protocol, which was agreed in 2016 and came into effect from January 2019, is expected to prevent up to 80 billion tonnes CO2 equivalent of emissions by 2050, which will make a significant contribution to the Paris Agreement objective to limit the global temperature rise to well below 2°C, according to the UNEP. The final deal divided the world economies into three groups, each with a target phasedown date. The richest countries, including the United States and those in the European Union, will reduce the production and consumption of HFCs from 2019. Much of the rest of the world, including China, Brazil and all of Africa, will freeze the use of HFCs by 2024. A small group of the world’s hottest countries such as Bahrain, India, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates have the most lenient schedule and will freeze HFCs use by 2028. The multilateral fund that allows this process to work by compensating poorer countries and paying for transfers of newer technology to them is highly dependent on US support. To date, the US had not ratified the agreement. This kind of multilateral fund is important in levelling the playing field and could also be replicated in other areas where lack of access to new technology might slow down shifts towards a low carbon economy.

Scope and evidence: It took only 2 years from the discovery of the ozone layer in 1985 for governments to agree to a global ban on the use of CFCs and a further 2 years for it to come into effect.
The Montreal Protocol is the only treaty ever to achieve universal ratification; with 197 countries enforcing the ban on CFCs. Parties to the Montreal Protocol have achieved a compliance rate of over 98% of their treaty commitments, and many achieved their targets well ahead of the schedule outlined in the treaty.
Global observations have confirmed that atmospheric levels of key ozone depleting substances are going down and it is expected that by the middle of this century they will return to pre-1980 levels.
The United States estimates that by the year 2065 more than 6.3 million skin cancer deaths will have been avoided, an estimated US$4.2 trillion in healthcare costs will have been saved, and 22 million Americans born between 1985 and 2100 would avoid suffering from cataracts due to the implementation of the Montreal Protocol. As most ozone depleting chemicals are also greenhouse gases, the Montreal Protocol has averted greenhouse gas emissions equivalent to more than 135 billion tonnes of CO2, making the Montreal Protocol an important contributor to the fight against global warming. Lessons for a rapid transition
International environmental negotiations can work. The success in the rapid negotiation, strengthening and enforcement of the Montreal Protocol to tackle ozone depleting substances is evidence of the ability of multilateral action to address clear and imminent environmental threats through regulation. Significantly, action was taken in a precautionary manner in advance of full scientific proof of the extent of the threat posed by ozone depletion. Consumer boycotts can change companies’ – and countries’ – positions. The organisation of civil society globally was key to building public consciousness and changing consumer behaviour. The boycotts of CFC products like aerosols convinced companies that a phase out was inevitable, and government support for a ban often followed suit. Coalitions of the ‘green and the self-interested’ can get results. Business interests are not uniform. You can work with those who stand to win from regulations (in this case, the larger producers of CFCs that began to invest in alternatives early on) to break the deadlock and spur change.

Throwing Fit GIFs | Tenor

PART-2: THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL EXPECTATION IN CLIMATE ACTIVISM

The essential argument made here, and in the similar articles listed below, is illustrated by the GIF image above of a child throwing a fit because he didn’t get what he had thought that he would get. It’s a failed expectation crisis.

THE ISSUE: Climate change activists and the UN had anticipated that the quick and easy UN orchestrated Montreal Protocol for a global ban on ozone depleting substances would serve as a model for a climate action global compact to end the use of fossil fuels and stop global warming. The relevant issue in this context in the climate change movement is that the quick and easy Montreal Protocol success in the ozone depletion movement that they had anticipated in the climate movement has failed to materialize.

THE TWO ISSUES ARE NOT COMPARABLE: This frustration likely arises from the inability to appreciate the enormous technological, social, and financial difference between changing refrigerants and overhauling the world’s energy infrastructure away from fossil fuels – essentially re-inventing the Industrial Revolution that gave us the modern world and its many conveniences and the good life. This difference between the Montreal Protocol and the Kyoto Protocol does not appear to have been fully grasped either by the UN or by climate activists that have clutched on to the Montreal Protocol as a model for a climate action agreement. It is thus that here in their 11th hour, climate activism desperation has turned to the apparent success of the Montreal Protocol for hope. Yet, as we show in the comparison of the two issues below and in the related posts cited here, the correspondence between climate change and ozone depletion assumed by climate activists does not exist. The two issue do have certain structural comparisons described below but these comparisons are not cause for optimism for a turnaround in the UN’s failure to put together a successful global climate action contract.

THE COMPLEXITY OF CLIMATE NEGOTIATIONS: The UN’s climate negotiations began with the UNFCCC or United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, where the guidelines set for the climate agreement to be sought made the negotiations orders of magnitude more complicated than the Montreal Protocol. For example, In the Common but Differentiated Responsibilities principle of the UNFCCC, the participating countries called “Parties”, were classified into four groups as Annex-1, Annex-2, non-Annex, and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) with widely different emission reduction obligations with the added complexity that the rich Annex-1 countries would have to compensate the poor non-Annex and SIDS countries for climate change impacts. There is a view in the UNFCCC that climate change is a creation of the rich developed and industrialized West and that the poor countries of the Global South suffer climate change impacts through no fault of their own but as a result of the emissions of the rich Global North. A complicated funding procedure called the WIM (Warsaw International Mechanism) was devised and the funds for these climate change impacts would flow from the rich Annex-1 countries to the poor non-Annex and SIDS countries though the UN. Signatories to the UNFCCC are called “Parties” and further meetings to formulate and sign a climate agreement were held among these signatories and these later meetings are called Conference of Parties or COP.

THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION IS A CREATION OF THE GLOBAL NORTH: As described in a related post on this site: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/10/14/racism/ , the complex classification of nations by the UNFCCC described above is best understood in the context of the industrial revolution that created two very different worlds on earth as the Global North of the rich industrialized nations and the Global South of the poor third world countries and the former colonies of the Global North. This bifurcation of the world would clearly not play a significant role in the changing refrigerants in the Montreal Protocol particularly when technical and financial assistance from the Global North to the Global South was a compulsory part of the Protocol through a mechanism called The Multilateral Fund. The success of this mechanism has no implications for climate action which holds essentially that “We, the Global North, did the Industrial Revolution all wrong and so we must rewind and do it right“. This argument and logic has no relevance for the Global South, and the complex classification of nations in the UNFCCC notwithstanding, there is no context for the Global South in this logic and no Multilateral Fund with technical assistance made available to thee Global South. The climate crisis issue is a creation of the Global North and is relevant only to the Global North in terms of the context of rewind and do the Industrial Revolution correctly because the Industrial Revolution is a creation of the Global North and their love hate relationship with it can only be understood in the context of the Global North. It has no meaning in the Global South that is still living in the Neolithic Revolution. Therefore although climate change is set as a global issue, the need for climate action can only be understood as a Global North issue. ONLY AFTER THE GLOBAL SOUTH HAS INDUSTRIALIZED AND REACHED THE INDUSTRIALIZATION, WEALTH, AND STANDARD OF LIVING OF THE GLOBAL NORTH CAN CLIMATE ACTION BE UNDERSTOOD IN GLOBAL TERMS.

Third World poverty is on the run

This chasm between North and South that makes it impossible to understand climate action as a global issue is illustrated in a related post in terms of carbon footprints: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/10/22/carbon-footprints/ . The relevant images in that post are reproduced below under the title “CARBON FOOTPRINTS”. What these images demonstrate is that though climate change is a global issue and understood in global terms, climate action cannot be understood in global terms because it is a creation of the Global North’s industrial revolution gone wrong.

SIMILARITIES BETWEEN THE OZONE DEPLETION AND CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUES: In the analysis above, we have explored the ways in which the two issues being compared are different and that therefore the success of one {Montreal Protocol} does not in itself imply a success of the other {UN brokered global climate action}. However, there are two similarities between these global environmental crises that make it easier to see the difference between the proposed solutions to the crises.

The first similarity is that both of the global environmental crises were used by the UN to extend its function, authority, and budget beyond the Charter to a role as global environmental authority in a legal vacuum. In other words, the UN has used these global environmental issues to expand its size, reach, and budget. Details of this issue are discussed in a related post on this site: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/03/18/the-eco-crisis-ambition-of-the-un/ .

The second similarity is that both of these issues contain fatal methodological and data analysis flaws such that when these flaws are corrected, the environmental crisis presented by the activists is no longer found.

CARBON FOOTPRINTS

NEW ZEALAND: 7.8 TONS/PER CAPITA

Footprints Computer Icons, footprints, miscellaneous, text png | PNGEgg
Dunedin been named as the most beautiful city. And it's not because of the  only's castles in the country! Dunedin has been crowned New Zealand's most  beautiful city for 2018 at the

CENTRAL AFRICA REPUBLIC: 0.1 TONS PER CAPITA

The Environmental Footprint Family - bringing clarity to the crowded field  of footprint studies | EU Science Hub
62% of the country lives in poverty | Central african, Country life, Photo

IRELAND: 8.1 TONS PER CAPITA

Footprints Computer Icons, footprints, miscellaneous, text png | PNGEgg
Best and worst things about living in Dublin

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO 0.1 TONS PER CAPITA

The Environmental Footprint Family - bringing clarity to the crowded field  of footprint studies | EU Science Hub
Muslims of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

NORWAY 8.8 TONS PER CAPITA

Footprints Computer Icons, footprints, miscellaneous, text png | PNGEgg
15 Best Cities to Visit in Norway (with Map & Photos) - Touropia

SUDAN 0.4 TONS PER CAPITA

The Environmental Footprint Family - bringing clarity to the crowded field  of footprint studies | EU Science Hub
Figures of the week: Fragility and extreme poverty

GERMANY 9.6 TONS PER CAPITA

Footprints Computer Icons, footprints, miscellaneous, text png | PNGEgg
Berlin 2019 - LONGINES GLOBAL CHAMPIONS TOUR

BANGLADESH: 0.5 TONS PER CAPITA

The Environmental Footprint Family - bringing clarity to the crowded field  of footprint studies | EU Science Hub
The Ultimate Guide to Backpacking in Bangladesh - Lost With Purpose

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: 16.3 TONS PER CAPITA

Footprints Computer Icons, footprints, miscellaneous, text png | PNGEgg
Prettiest cities in the US - Insider

CAMBODIA: 0.6 TONS PER CAPITA

The Environmental Footprint Family - bringing clarity to the crowded field  of footprint studies | EU Science Hub
Made in Cambodia: How women in poverty are supplying America's market for  hair

CONCLUSION: CLIMATE CHANGE IS A RICH MAN’S GAME: YOU HAVE TO GET RICH FIRST BEFORE YOU CAN WORRY ABOUT BEING RICH

LIST OF POSTS ON THE ASSUMED CORRESPONDENCE BETWEEN OZONE DEPLETION AND CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE FRUSTRTION OF THE FAILURE OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE MOVEMENT TO REPEAT THE SUCCESS OF THE OZONE DEPLETION MOVEMENT.

  1. LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/12/27/the-hole-in-the-sky/ THE AUSTRALIAN GEOGRAPHIC. Lessons from the Montreal Protocol, or how the people of the world can successfully respond as one to avert a global environmental catastrophe.
  2. LINK#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/12/27/the-hole-in-the-sky/ OPEN MIND: The Montreal Protocol, in force since 1989, is often regarded as the most successful international environmental agreement in history.
  3. LINK#3: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/12/18/a-montreal-climate-coalition/ A MONTREAL CLIMATE COALITION IS POSSIBLE IF WE HAVE A CARBON BUDGET.
  4. LINK#4: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/30/the-unep-healed-the-ozone-hole/ BY THE UNITED NATIONS ENVRONMENT PROGRAM SUGGESTS THAT WE CAN HEAL THE CLIMATE CRISIS BECSUSE WE HEALED THE OZONE HOLE.
  5. LINK#5: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/25/climate-alarm-of-11-25-2020/ NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC. CLIMATE 101: OZONE DEPLETION. The ozone layer helps to protect life from harmful ultraviolet radiation. Find out what caused the ozone hole, and how the 1989 Montreal Protocol sought to put an end to ozone depletion.
  6. LINK#6: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/24/an-ode-to-mario-molina/ REMEMBERING MARIO MOLINA. Mario Molina’s Life Understanding was Protecting Our Atmosphere
  7. LINK#7: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/04/the-ozone-hole-of-2020/ NASA: A “LARGE DEEP OZONE HOLE” HAD OPENED UP IN THE SOUTH POLE AND THE FURTHER DISCUSSION OF ITS ORIGINS AND IMPLICATIONS IN TERMS OF THE ROWLAND MOLINA THEORY OF OZONE DEPLETION.
Brewer-Dobson Circulation – Welcome to Khalil Karami's website
THE BREWER DOBSON CIRCULATION

OVERVIEW: WHAT WE SEE IN THE CLIMATE CHANGE MOVEMENT IS A PATTERN OF REPEATEDLY CITING THE SUCCESS OF THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL AS THE REASON THAT THE THE CLIMATE CHANGE MOVEMENT SHOULD ALSO SUCCEED. AN INTERPRETATION OF THIS LOGIC IS THAT THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL IS THE EVIDENCE THAT ENVIRONMENTAL MOVEMENTS WITHOUT SUFFICIENT EVIDENCE DO SUCCEED GIVEN A SUFFICIENT FEAR LEVEL AND THAT THEREFORE IT PROVIDES REASON TO CONTINUE THE CLIMATE BATTLE IN THE HOPE OF THE SAME KIND OF SUCCESS.

THE UNDERLYING ASSUMPTION IN THESE COMPARISONS OF OZONE DEPLETION AND CLIMATE CHANGE IS THAT THESE TWO ISSUES HAVE SOMETHING IN COMMON. HERE WE SHOW THAT WHAT THEY HAVE IN COMMON IS AN ABSENCE OF EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FOR THE CLAIMS THAT JUSTIFY THE ACTION DEMANDED. THE ACTION DEMANDED IS REFRIGERANT CHANGE FROM ODS EMISSION MATERIAL TO NON ODS EMISSION MATERIAL IN THE CASE OF OZONE DEPLETION AND ENERGY CHANGE FROM FOSSIL FUELS TO RENEWABLES IN THE CASE OF CLIMATE CHANGE.

CLIMATE CHANGE

THE AIRBORNE FRACTION: The theory of Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) by way of fossil fuel emissions is that about half of the CO2 in fossil fuel emissions remains in the atmosphere. This is called the Airborne Fraction. The airborne fraction increases atmospheric CO2 concentration while the other half increases carbon cycle flows and does not remain in the atmosphere. The net result of fossil fuel emissions then that atmospheric CO2 rises on an annual basis by an amount equal to the Airborne Fraction. And because surface temperature is a function of atmospheric CO2 concentration, the higher and higher CO2 levels in the atmosphere translate to higher and higher global mean temperatures year after year which we understand as global warming. The key to this causation relationship is the Airborne Fraction and the responsiveness of atmospheric composition to fossil fuel emissions at an annual time scale implied by the Airborne Fraction.

ANNUAL CHANGES IN MLO CO2: This implied relationship at an annual time scale between fossil fuel emissions and atmospheric composition is tested in a related post:

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/11/annual-changes-in-mlo-co2/ where we find:

THE DATA FOR ANNUAL FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS AND ANNUAL CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION DO NOT SHOW THAT FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS CAUSE ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION TO CHANGE. THE FINDING IMPLIES THAT THERE IS NO EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE IN SUPPORT OF THE THEORY OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE ACTION. THE CLIMATE CHANGE THEORY HOLDS THAT THE OBSERVED RISE IN ATMOSPHERIC CO2 IS CAUSED BY FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS. THE CLIMATE ACTION THEORY HOLDS THAT MOVING THE GLOBAL ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FROM FOSSIL FUELS TO RENEWABLES WILL MODERATE THE RATE OF INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC CO2 AND THEREBY MODERATE THE RATE OF WARMING. NO EVIDENCE IS FOUND IN THE DATA TO SUPPORT THESE CAUSATION ASSUMPTIONS.

AT ISSUE IS THE AIRBORNE FRACTION. A STUDY OF THIS ISSUE IN CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE IS PRESENTED IN ANOTHER RELATED POST: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/12/29/climate-scientist-explains-the-carbon-budget/ . THERE WE FIND AS FOLLOWS:

DETRENDED CORRELATION ANALYSIS AND MONTE CARLO SIMULATION ARE USED TO STUDY TO RESPONSIVENESS OF ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION TO FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS. NO EVIDENCE IS FOUND TO SUPPORT THE ASSUMED CAUSATION IN CLIMATE SCIENCE WHERE THE OBSERVED RISE IN ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION IS ATTRIBUTED TO FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS. THE FINDINGS PRESENTED ABOVE IMPLY THAT THE AIRBORNE FRACTION IS A CREATION OF CIRCULAR REASONING AND CONFRMATION BIAS.

A NECESSARY AND CRITICAL RELATIONSHIP IN THE THEORY OF ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING AND THE THEORY OF CLIMATE ACTION IS THAT BETWEEN EMISSIONS AND ATMOSPHERIC CO2. THIS RELATIONSHIP IS ASSUMED IN AGW SCIENCE BUT NOT FOUND IN THE DATA. THEREFORE THERE IS NO EVIDENCE THAT FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS CAUSE WARMING AND NO EVIDENCE FOR THE ASSUMED ABILITY OF CLIMATE ACTION TO REDUCE THE RATE OF RISE IN ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION.

Seeps Give a Peek Into Plumbing
NATURE’S GEOLOGICAL FLOWS OF CARBON

OZONE DEPLETION

OZONE DEPLETION CHEMISTRY AND GLOBAL TOTAL COLUMN OZONE DATA

RELATED POST#1: OZONE CHEMISTRY: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/04/01/ozone-depletion-and-ozone-holes/ :

The Montreal Protocol subsumes that without human intervention the amount of ozone in the stratosphere is invariant and that a decline in ozone over time is a trend and not part of long run cyclical phenomena. All observed depletions, even localized and time constrained events, are therefore assumed to be man-made and the causative agent is identified as CFC. Observed changes are thus interpreted as anomalies that require an explanation in terms of human cause, but the data are more complicated that this simplistic model

The ultraviolet spectrum in incident solar radiation comes in three frequency bands. The high energy band (200-240 nanometers) and the medium energy band (240-300 nanometers) are harmful to living matter and are absorbed in the ozone layer while the low energy band (300-480 nanometers) reaches the earth’s surface and causes tanning. With respect to the absorption of harmful UV radiation in the ozone layer, ozone is both created and destroyed in the absorption process. The high-energy band UV is absorbed by oxygen molecules causing them to break apart into extremely reactive oxygen atoms. A subsequent chance collision of these atomic particles with other oxygen molecules forms ozone which then absorbs the medium-energy UV band and disintegrates back into oxygenThe UV absorption process is cyclical. It begins and ends with oxygen. Ozone is a transient intermediate product of this process.

The reason that there is any ozone accumulation at all in the stratosphere is that, of the three reactions, the second is the slowest. Sunset finds the stratosphere with an excess of single oxygen atoms still looking for a date with an oxygen molecule. Overnight, with no radiation to destroy their product, these particles build up an inventory of ozone whose destruction will begin anew at sunrise. There is therefore, a diurnal cyclein the ozone content of the stratosphere whose amplitude is of the same order of magnitude as in the “ozone hole”, the reported ozone depletion over the South Pole that confirmed taken to confirm RMTOD and that caused Montreal Protocol to be invoked.

A longer but irregular cyclical pattern in stratospheric ozone coincides with the sunspot cycle. The period is 8 to 17 years with an average of 11 years. High-energy band UV increases by 6% to 10% during periods of high sunspot activity but the medium-energy UV emission is largely unaffected. High sunspot activity favors ozone accumulation and low sunspot activity is coincident with ozone depletion. A somewhat similar pattern exists in the case of polar ozone holes. The UV induced reactions described above occur only over the tropics where sunlight is directOzone is formed over the equator and not over the poles. Equatorial ozone is distributed to the higher latitudes by the Brewer-Dobson Circulation (BDC) shown above.

The shape and position of the BDC changes seasonally and also shifts over a longer time cycleTherefore, the efficiency of the BDC in transporting ozone to the greater latitudes changes seasonally and also over longer time cyclesThese changes do not have an ozone depletion interpretation but they can create the polar ozone hole phenomenon. When the distribution of ozone is not efficient, localized “ozone depletion” appears to occur in the extreme latitudes in the form of what has come to be called an ozone hole. These holes come and go in natural cyclical changes and are not the creation of chemical ozone depletion and they do not serve as empirical evidence of the Roland Molina theory of ozone depletion by CFCs.

THE CASE AGAINST CFCs.

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The case against CFCs is that when they get to the stratosphere by diffusion, they absorb high-energy band UV and form unstable and reactive chlorine atoms. The chlorine atom particles then participate as catalytic agents to convert ozone back to oxygen. In other words they mediate the reaction between atomic oxygen particles and ozone. It is alleged that the destruction of ozone by this mechanism exposes the surface of the earth to dangerous levels of medium-band UV because there is not enough ozone left in the stratosphere to absorb them.

Ozone - Chemistry LibreTexts

Although these reactions can be carried out in the chemistry lab , there are certain rate constraints that make them irrelevant in the stratosphere. The air up there in the stratosphere is rather thin, containing less than one percent (1%) of the molecular density of air at sea level. It is not easy for a molecular particle in random thermal motion to find another particle to react with. Photochemical reactions occur instantaneously but those that require a collision of two particles take much much much longer. This difference in the reaction rate is the reason that ozone accumulates overnight and why there is an inventory of ozone in the ozone layer. 

The atomic oxygen particles that react with oxygen molecules to form ozone could in theory react with an ozone molecule instead and cause its destruction or it could react with another atomic oxygen particle and form oxygen instead of ever forming any ozone. Some of the oxygen atoms do behave in this manner but these reactions proceed too slowly to be important to the chemistry of the stratosphere. The reason is that the stratospheric chemicals in question exist in minute quantities. One in a million particles is an ozone molecule or an atomic oxygen particle and one in a billion is CFC or chlorine generated from CFC. The accidental collision between chlorine atoms and ozone molecules or between chlorine atoms and oxygen atoms are rarer than those between two oxygen atoms or that between an oxygen atom and an ozone molecule. Therefore the latter collisions involving oxygen atoms are more important to ozone depletion than those mediated by chlorine. Considering that more than 200,000 out of a million molecular particles in the stratosphere are oxygen, it is far more likely that charged oxygen atoms will collide with oxygen molecules rather than with each other or with ozone. Therefore ozone rather than oxygen is formed. Ozone formation is a rate phenomenon.

Chlorine atoms are a thousand times rarer in the stratosphere than atomic oxygen particles. It is not likely that chlorine’s mediation in short circuiting ozone generation will occur sufficiently fast to be important. Nature already contains an ozone destruction mechanism that is more efficient than the CFC mechanism but ozone forms anyway. 

However, the argument can be made that overnight after sunset, as charged oxygen atoms are used up, the charged chlorine atoms take on a greater role in ozone destruction and also when these chemicals are distributed to the greater latitudes where sunlight is less direct and too weak to be ionizers of oxygen, the only ozone destruction chemistry left is that of charged chlorine atoms colliding with ozone. The  relative importance of these overnight and greater latitude reactions in making changes to latitudinally weighted mean global ozone can be checked only by examining its overall long term trends as well as its trend profiles. These data are shown in the data analysis summary of related posts on ozone depletion (LINKS provided at the end of this post).

The essential data are displayed graphically below: What we find in the data for total column ozone across the whole world from Pole to Pole is that data for global mean total column ozone over a long multidecadal time span do not show a long term declining trend. Moreover, the patterns in the data suggest that the occasional low levels of ozone seen over the South Pole that have been interpreted as evidence of ozone depletion and evidence of a hole in the ozone layer, is a figment of a pattern in the data that is likely the creation of natural variability in ozone distribution by the Brewer Dobson circulation.

We also find in the data that the range of observed ozone levels is a strong function of latitude. It reaches a minimum of about 20DU in the tropics and increases asymmetrically toward the two poles. The hemispheric asymmetry has two dimensions. The northward increase in range is gradual and the southward increase in range is steep. Also, the northward increase in range is achieved mostly with rising maximum values while southward increase in range is achieved mostly with falling minimum values. The midpoint between the HIGH and LOW values is symmetrical within ±45 from the equator but diverges sharply beyond 45 with the northern leg continuing a steady rise while the southern leg changes to a steep decline.

Hemispheric asymmetry in atmospheric circulation patterns is well known (Butchart, 2014) (Smith, 2014) and the corresponding asymmetry in ozone levels is also recognized (Crook, 2008) (Tegtmeier, 2008) (Pan, 1997). These asymmetries are also evident when comparing seasonal cycles among the ground stations (Figure 29). The observed asymmetries are attributed to differences in land-water patterns in the two hemispheres with specific reference to the existence of a large ice covered land mass in the South Pole (Oppenheimer, 1998) (Kang, 2010) (Turner, 2009). The climactic uniqueness of Antarctica is widely recognized (Munshi, Mass Loss in the Greenland and Antarctica Ice Sheets, 2015) (NASA, 2016) (NASA, 2015).

The only empirical evidence for anthropogenic ozone depletion is the finding by Farman et al in 1985 that ozone levels at HLB (above the South Pole) fell more than 100DU from the average value for October in 1957-1973 to the average value for October in 1980-1984.

In comparison, changes of ±5DU from Lustrum to Lustrum seem inconsequential. In that light. On this basis, if we describe ±5DU per Lustrum as representative of random natural variability, what we see in the data is that, except for the two Antarctica stations (AMS and HLB), no average change in monthly mean ozone from Lustrum to Lustrum falls outside this range. It is therefore not likely that the HLB data reported by Farman et al can be generalized globally. We conclude from this analysis that the Farman etal study, the only empirical evidence thought to validate the Rowland Molina theory of ozone depletion, is flawed and therefore does not serve as evidence of anthropogenic ozone depletion. And yet, Farman etal 1985 served and still serves to this day as the sole empirical support for the ozone crisis that created the role for the UN in global environmentalism.

These relationships imply that there is no empirical evidence to support the Rowland Molina Theory of Ozone Depletion and that therefore there is no evidence of human caused ozone depletion by way of CFC emissions. The occasional low ozone level over the South Pole described as an “ozone hole” and presented as evidence of ozone depletion is neither a hole in the ozone layer nor evidence of ozone depletion but natural variability understood in terms of the data presented above.

EMPRICIAL TEST OF OZONE DEPLETIONGROUND STATION OZONE DATALIST OF GROUND STATIONSAND TOTAL COLUMN OZONE DATA FROM AMS, HLB, LDR, PTH

TOTAL COLUMN OZONE DATA FROM SMO, MLO, WAI, BDR

TOTAL COLUMN OZONE DATA FROM CAR, BIR, FBK, BRW



  • chaamjamal: Yes sir, this is the essential heart and soul of Davidism. We bad. Bambi good.
  • Daniel Talboy: My Father said to me as a young boy, mankind will stew in their juices, and it seems as though he was right. Mankind is a doomed race, the animal king
  • chaamjamal: Thank you again sir for these interesting details and insights.