Thongchai Thailand

BBC PROVES HUMAN CAUSE OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Posted on: January 17, 2022

LINK TO THE BBC ARTICLE: https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-59915690

PART-1: WHAT THE BBC CLIMATE CHANGE ARTICLE SAYS

PAST SEVEN YEARS HOTTEST ON RECORD, EU SATELLITE DATA SHOW. The past seven years have been the hottest on record, according to new data from the EU’s satellite system. The Copernicus Climate Change Service said 2021 was the fifth-warmest year, with record-breaking heat in some regions. And the amount of warming gases in our atmosphere continued to increase. Governments are committed to limiting global temperature rise to 1.5C to curb climate change. But scientists warn that time is fast running out. The environmental, human and economic costs of hotter temperatures are already being seen globally. Europe lived through its warmest summer, and temperature records in western US and Canada were broken by several degrees. Extreme wildfires in July and August burnt almost entire towns to the ground and killed hundreds. These events are a stark reminder of the need to change our ways, take decisive and effective steps toward a sustainable society and work towards reducing net carbon emissions. Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, explains: “The Copernicus data comes from a constellation of Sentinel satellites that monitor the Earth from orbit, as well as measurements taken at ground level. Fifth-warmest year: Copernicus data showed that 2021 was the fifth-hottest on record, marginally warmer than 2015 and 2018. Taken together, the past seven years were the hottest seven years on record by a clear margin, the agency explained. The 2021 average temperature was 1.1-1.2C above the pre-industrial level around 150 years ago. It would be easy to dismiss the latest global temperature figure as a non-event. Who celebrates fifth place in anything? If we were in a film, these annual temperature updates would be the ominous drum beat signalling the plot is darkening. They measure out the pace of change in our world. The increments may be tiny – a fraction of a degree – but the direction of travel is inescapable. And make no mistake, the rhythm they mark out increasingly sets the pace for all our lives. Think of the fires and floods that affected so many people in 2021. And now look again at what the data is telling us: the seven hottest years ever recorded have been the last seven years. We can’t say we weren’t warned. The agency said that the start of the year saw relatively low temperatures compared to recent years, but that by June monthly temperatures were at least among the warmest four recorded. Places with above average temperatures included the west coast of US and Canada, north-east Canada and Greenland, large parts of north and central Africa, and the Middle East. The weather phenomenon known as La Niña – when surface sea temperatures are cooler – contributed to below-average temperatures in western and eastern Siberia, Alaska, and the central and eastern Pacific during the start and end of 2021. Europe’s warmest summer: Overall Europe’s annual temperature was outside the ten warmest years on record but the summer was the hottest. A heatwave swept through Mediterranean in July and August, particularly affecting Greece, Spain and Italy. How hot could it get where you live? California fires threaten to ravage mighty forests. In Sicily, 48.8C degrees was reported, breaking Europe’s record for highest temperature by 0.8C. The hot temperatures in the eastern and central Mediterranean was followed by intense wildfires particular in Turkey but also in Greece, Italy, Tunisia and Algeria. And Europe also saw extreme wet weather, with huge floods devastating parts of Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands. These events were part of the same picture of weather systems disrupted by climate change. Warming gases increased: The concentration in the earth’s atmosphere of two gases that significantly contribute to climate change rose in 2021, said Copernicus. Carbon dioxide concentrations reached 414.3 parts per million last year, growing at a similar rate to 2020. Climate change is causing once-mighty rivers to dry up and temperatures to rise to deadly levels in Mexico. But scientists remarked that methane levels in the atmosphere increased to reach an unprecedented approximately 1,876 parts per billion. The growth rate of methane was also higher than in 2020 – Copernicus said both rates were very high compared to the past two decades of satellite data. Scientist say it is important to reduce methane levels because it is more potent than CO2, however it lasts much less time in the Earth’s atmosphere. The increasing concentrations of these gases showed no signs of slowing down, concluded Vincent-Henri Peuch, Director of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service. More data about 2021’s temperatures will be released in the coming days from other agencies including from Nasa and the UK’s Met Office.

PART-2: CRITICAL COMMENTARY

ITEM#1: PAST SEVEN YEARS HOTTEST ON RECORD

RESPONSE: IN THE THEORY OF ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING THE WARMING PART REFERS TO A LONG TERM (LONGER THAN 30 YEARS) SUSTAINED RISING TREND IN GLOBAL MEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE. IN THIS CONTEXT, THE OBSERVATION THAT THE PAST SEVEN YEARS WERE THE HOTTEST ON RECORD HAS NO INTERPRETATION. THE RELEVANT VARIABLLE IN THE THEORY OF GLOBAL WARMING IS LONG TERM WARMING NOT A PERIOD OF HIGH TEMPERATURE PARTICULARLY SO WHEN IT IS NECESARY TO LIMIT THE REFERENCE TIME PERIOD TO THE INSTRUMENTAL RECORD WITH THE PHRASE “ON RECORD”

ITEM#2: IT IS NECESSARY TO LIMIT THE WARMING TO 1.5C

RESPONSE: THE PHRASE “LIMIT THE WARMING TO 1,5C”, IS A REFERENCE TO THE IPCC / CLIMATE SCIENCE POSITION THAT THE AMOUNT OF WARMING “SINCE PRE-INDUSTRIAL” MUST NOT BE ALLOWED TO EXCEED 1.5C. TO ENFORCE OR TO COMPLY WITH THIS REQUIREMENT IT IS NECESSARY TO KNOW WHEN THAT PRE-INDUSTRIAL YEAR WAS AND WHAT THE TEMPERATURE WAS AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER, IT TURNS OUT THAT ALTHOUGH THE PRE-INDUSTRIAL YEAR PLAYS THIS CRITICAL ROLE IN THE THEORY OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE CORRESPONDING PLAN FOR CLIMATE ACTION, IT TURNS OUT THAT CLIMATE SCIENCE DOES NOT KNOW WHEN THIS PRE-INDUSTRIAL YEAR WAS AND WHAT THE TEMPERATURE WAS THEN: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/12/25/earth-day-wisdom/ .

WHAT WE FIND IN THIS LINKED DOCUMENT IS THAT THE IPCC HAD INITIALLY SAID THAT THIS CRITICAL PRE-INDUSTRIAL YEAR WAS 1750. IN A LATER REPORT THEY CHANGED THE REFERENCE PRE-INDUSTRIAL YEAR TO 1850 WITHOUT EXPLANATION. MUCH LATER ESTEEMED CLIMATE SCIENTIST JAMES HANSEN, RECOGNIZED AS “THE FATHER OF CLIMATE CHANGE”, ALONG WITH THE THE USA SPACE AGENCY NASA, CHANGED THE PRE-INDUSTRIAL START YEAR OF CLIMATE CHANGE TO 1950. THEY CITED THE ETCW ANOMALY, {EARLY TWENTIETH CENTURY WARMING ANOMALY} AS THE REASON FOR THE CHANGE IN THE PRE-INDUSTRIAL YEAR.

THE ETCW ISSUE IN CLIMATE SCIENCE IS THE OBSEERVATION BY CLIMATE SCIENTISTS THAT THE WARMING FROM 1900 TO THE 1970S CANNOT BE EXPLAINED IN TERMS OF THE KNOWN RATE OF CO2 RISE IN THE ATMOSPHERE. A SPECIFIC ISSUE IN THIS REGARD IS THAT THE MUCH HERALDED EARLY CLIMATE CHANGE PAPER IN 1938 BY GUY CALLENDAR THAT HAD IDENTIFIED THE YEAR 1900 AS THE REFERENCE PRE-INDUSTRIAL YEAR, IS NOW INCONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT VERSION OF CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE.

THE ODDITY OF ALL OF THIS IS THAT ALTHOUGH THE MOST IMPORTANT FEATURES IN THE SCIENCE OF ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE THAT DEFINE THE CLIMATE ACTION WE MUST TAKE ARE WHEN THE PRE-INDUSTRIAL WAS AND WHAT THE TEMPERATURE WAS THEN, IT TURNS OUT THAT CLIMATE SCIENCE DOES NOT KNOW THE VALUE OF EITHER OF THESE VARIABLES. IN THAT CONTEXT, ALL THIS TALK ABOUT NOT EXCEEDING 1.5C OF WARMING “SINCE PRE-INDUSTRIAL” IS MEANINGLESS BECAUSE WE KNOW NEITHER WHEN THAT WAS NOR WHAT THE TEMPERATURE WAS BACK THEN. AN YET THIS SUPPOSED CRITICAL AMOUNT OF WARMING PLAYS THE KEY ROLE IN DEFINING AND DEMANDING CLIMATE ACTION.

CONCLUSION: CLIMATE SCIENCE HAS LOST ITS WAY AND NOW NEEDS THE MEDIA AND ALL THEIR FANCY LANGUAGE TO SELL THEIR SCIENCE BECAUSE IT CAN’T BE SOLD IN A PURELY SCIENTIFIC CONTEXT. UNDER THE CONDITIONS ABOVE, THE CLAIM THAT THE AMOUNT OF WARMING MUST NOT BE ALLOWED TO EXCEED 1.5C SINCE PRE-INDUSTRIAL HAS NO MEANING AND NO INTERPRETATION..

Three Stooges 3D Anaglyph cards - Topic

CLIMATE SCIENTISTS ALSO TELL US THAT THE CURRENT WARMING CYCLE STARTED WHEN THE LITTLE ICE AGE ENDED BUT THEY DON’T KNOW EXACTLY WHEN OR HOW THAT HAPPENED. DETAILS IN A RELATED POST: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/10/23/a-natural-recovery-from-the-lia/

A FURTHER NOTE IN THIS REGARD IS THAT INTERGLACIAL WARMING AND COOLING CYCLES ARE NATURAL SUCH THAT HUMAN CAUSE CANNOT BE ASSSUMED BUT RATHER SIGNIFICANT EVIDENCE FOR SUCH CAUSATION MUST BE PROVIDED.

RELATED POST#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2022/01/05/holocene-global-warming-and-climate-change-cycles/

RELATED POST#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/11/09/the-issue-is-human-cause/

1 Response to "BBC PROVES HUMAN CAUSE OF CLIMATE CHANGE"

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  • budbromley: https://budbromley.blog/2022/09/24/that-would-be-the-road-to-hell/
  • budbromley: Could be a good article for the Babylon Bee. Just left out the 97% joke and hockey stick. Instead, I see a ground swell of resistance, more deniers,
  • chaamjamal: IF THE SCIENCE IS GOOD SELL THE SCIENCE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SCIENCE IF THE SCIENCE IS BAD, SELL THE SCIENCE BY DENIGRATING ITS CRITICS.
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