Thongchai Thailand

CLIMATE CHANGE TYPHOONS

Posted on: December 28, 2021

Typhoon Mangkhut hits Hong Kong after killing 60 in the Philippines | CTIF  - International Association of Fire Services for Safer Citizens through  Skilled Firefighters

LINK TO SOURCE ARTICLE: https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3161184/climate-change-typhoons-coastal-asia-and-china-could-be-twice-powerful

Hong Kong picks up pieces after typhoon's trail of destruction

A BRIEF SUMMARY OF WHAT THE SOURCE ARTICLE SAYS

Climate Change: Typhoons in coastal Asia and China could be twice as powerful by 2100. Their overall destructive power could double by the end of the century in the worst-case climate change scenario. The projection also suggests that an average typhoon by then will last 56% longer and travel 50% further inland. The average wind speed of typhoons at landfall could strengthen by 6%. The death toll from Typhoon Rai in the Philippines is up to 375 and climbing. Between 1979 and 2016 typhoons increased in duration by two to nine hours and penetrated 30 to 190km further inland. Global warming will continue the increasing trend in landfalling typhoons and their impact on inland regions. This assessment derives from high-resolution climate model projections. More Asian inland regions will be exposed to severe typhoon-related hazards in the future as a result of climate change.

One of the Strongest Typhoons in 5 Years Has Hit Hong Kong
The University of Hong Kong ฮ่องกง

CRITICAL COMMENTARY

RELATED POSTS ON TROPICAL CYCLONES THAT ARE RELEVANT TO THIS ISSUE: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/01/30/list-of-posts-on-tropical-cyclones/

  1. TRENDS IN TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/11/28/trends-in-tropical-cyclone-activity/
  2. TROPICAL CYCLONES AND SST: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/03/22/ace-sst/
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONES OF THE PRE-INDUSTRIAL ERA: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/04/04/1737/
  4. TROPICAL CYCLONES AND CLIMATE CHANGE 2019: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/08/01/tropical-cyclones-climate-change/
  5. TROPICAL CYCLONES AND CLIMATE CHANGE 2020: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/03/04/agwcyclones/
  6. A FAILED OBSESSION WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/09/20/a-failed-obsession-with-tropical-cyclones/
  7. THE HURRICANE OBSESSION OF CLIMATE SCIENCE: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/11/14/hurricane-obsession/
  8. CLIMATE CHANGE AND HURRICANES: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/09/18/climate-change-hurricanes/
  9. TOTAL HURRICANE ENERGY AND FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/09/15/emissions-hurricanes/

Thinking Big” with Tom Knutson – Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
TOM KNUTSON

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS DRAWN FROM THE POSTS LISTED ABOVE

WHAT CLIMATE SCIENCE SAYS ABOUT THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GLOBAL WARMING AND TROPICAL CYCLONES IS SUMMARIZED IN THE RESEARCH PAPER BY KNUTSON ETAL AND HERE IS WHAT TOM KNUTSON SAYS: “Tropical cyclones and climate change.” Nature geoscience 3.3 (2010): 157-163. In the paper, Tom Knutson spells out exactly what climate science claims in terms of the impact of AGW climate change on tropical cyclones with climate model predictions of the effect of rising SST on tropical cyclones. His main points are as follows: (1) Globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones will rise as AGW increases SST. Models predict globally averaged intensity increase of 2% to 11% by 2100. (2). Models predict falling globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones with frequency decreasing 6%-34% by 2100. (3). The globally averaged frequency of “most intense tropical cyclones” should increase as a result of AGW. The intensity of tropical cyclones is measured as the ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy). (4). Models predict increase in precipitation within a 100 km radius of the storm center. A precipitation rise of 20% is projected for the year 2100. (5) Extremely high variance in tropical cyclone data at an annual time scale suggests longer, perhaps a decadal time scale which in turn greatly reduces statistical power. (6) Model projections for individual cyclone basins show large differences and conflicting results. Thus, no testable implication can be derived for studies of individual basins. NOTE: CO-AUTHORS INCLUDE EMANUEL, KOSSIN,

THIS MEANS THAT THE IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON TROPICAL CYCLONES CAN ONLY BE UNDERSTOOD IN TERMS OF A LONG TERM TREND OF MORE THAN 30 YEARS IN THE TOTAL CYCLONE ENERGY OF ALL TROPICAL CYCLONES AROUND THE WORLD IN ALL SIX CYCLONE BASINS.

TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE WEST PACIFIC BASIN ARE CALLED TYPHOONS. IT IS JUST ONE OUT OF SIX BASINS. NO INFORMATION ON THE IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON TROPICAL CYCLONES CAN BE FOUND BY STUDYING ONE SINGLE CYCLONE BASIN.

THE DATA MUST INCLUDE ALL SIX BASINS. THE OTHER FIVE CYCLONE BASINS ARE THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND SOUTH ATLANTIC BASINS WHERE TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE CALLED HURRICANES, THE NORTH INDIAN, THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN, AND THE SOUTH PACIFIC BASINS WHERE TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE CALLED “CYCLONES”. MOREOVER, THE CYCLONE DATA MUST SPAN MORE THAN 30 YEARS.

BASED ON THESE REQUIREMENTS BY CLIMATE SCIENCE FOR THE STUDY OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL WARMING, WE CONCLUDE THAT THE FINDINGS PRESENTED BY HONGKONG UNIVERSITY ABOVE DO NOT CONTAIN USEFUL INFORMATION.

The University of Hong Kong ฮ่องกง
THE UNIVERSITY OF HONGKONG

THIS KIND OF GOOFY ANALYSIS THAT IS PRESENTD AS CLIMATE SCIENCE BUT THAT IS ACTUALLY INCONSISTENT WITH CLIMATE SCIENCE HAS BECOME THE NORM IN CLIMATE ACTIVISM.

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MEANWHILE OVER AT QUORA

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2 Responses to "CLIMATE CHANGE TYPHOONS"

Studying the results of all 6 basins would be as pointless as studying just one basin, or just one island in one of the basins, if you deny that CO2 is 63% heavier than aluminum, and can’t possibly contribute to AGW.

Studies like this are also pointless if you deny that Global Cooling has been “starving” the polar caps and glaciers of new winter precipitation for the last 10,000+ years.

If a planet that’s 70%+ covered by water was actually heating up there would be more water vapor and more precipitation and the winter snowfall would exceed the summer melt and the ice caps and glaciers would have been growing for the last 10,000+ years.

I have yet to find anyone who can dispute that CO2 is heavier than air and water, and therefor cannot possibly accumulate in the atmosphere.

I have yet to find anyone who can dispute that the continental ice sheets that covered the northern hemisphere 10,000+ years ago melted away because Global Warming produced “less” water vapor and less precipitation.

The molecular weight of CO2 makes the AGW argument totally invalid, unless you don’t believe in gravity.

The shrinking glaciers and polar caps proves, unless you don’t believe that less heat results in less water vapor and less precipitation, that the planet has been cooling for the last 10,000+ years,

Thank you for this very comprehensive analysis.

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