THIS POST IS A PRESENTATION OF THE FINDING BY CLIMATE SCIENCE THAT A WHEEL OF TIME SIMULATION SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT GLOBAL WARMING CYCLE OF THE HOLOCENE COULD LAST FOR ANOTHER 18,000 YEARS

LINK YO SOURCE: https://theconversation.com/wheel-of-time-is-set-thousands-of-years-from-now-yet-its-still-burdened-with-todays-climate-change-174088

PART-1: WHAT THE ONLINE ARTICLE SAYS

A study of the Wheel of Time, the 14-book epic fantasy suggests that the show takes place around 18,000 years from today. For climate scientists like us, this poses an interesting question: would today’s climate change still be experienced in the World of the Wheel, even after all those centuries? About a quarter of carbon dioxide emitted today will remain in the atmosphere 18,000 years from now. According to biogeochemistry models, carbon dioxide levels could be as high as 1,100 ppm at that point. That’s compared with a present-day value of 415ppm. This very high value assumes that the Paris climate goals will be exceeded and that many natural stores of carbon will also be released into the atmosphere. But the high carbon dioxide concentrations do not necessarily mean a warmer climate. That’s because, over such a long period, slow changes in the orbit and tilt of the planet become more important. This is known as the Milankovitch Cycle and each cycle lasts for around 100,000 years. Given that we are currently at the peak of such a cycle, the planet will naturally cool over the next 50,000 years and this is why scientists were once worried about a new ice age. But will this be enough to offset the warming from the remaining carbon dioxide in the atmosphere? The image below shows a version of the classic warming stripes, a ubiquitous symbol of the past 150 years of climate change, but instead applied over 1 million years:

Annotated stripes: Warming stripes of Earth (and the World of the Wheel) for a million years. Today’s climate crisis will disrupt the Milankovitch cycle and its effects will last for many thousands of years.
You can clearly see the 100,000 year Milankovitch cycles. Anything red can be considered anthropogenic climate change, and the events of the Wheel of Time are well within this period. Even the descending Milankovitch cycle won’t be enough to counteract the increased warming from carbon dioxide, and so the inhabitants of the World of the Wheel would still experience elevated temperatures from a climate crisis that occurred 18,000 years ago. However, some of the weather changes from the still-elevated temperatures could be offset by other factors. Those 18,000 years aren’t very long from a geological perspective, so in normal circumstances the landmasses would not change significantly. However, in this fantasy future magical channelers “broke” the world at the end of the Second Age, creating several new supercontinents.To find out how the climate would work in the World of the Wheel, we used an exoplanet model. This complex computer program uses fundamental principles of physics to simulate the weather patterns on the hypothetical future planet, once we had fed in its topography based on hand-drawn maps of the world, and carbon dioxide levels of 830ppm based on one of the high potential future carbon pathways. According to our model, the World of the Wheel would be warm all over the surface, with temperatures over land never being cold enough for snow apart from on the mountains. No chance of a white Christmas in this future. Here the story and the science diverge, as at times snow is mentioned in the Wheel of Time. The long-term effects of climate change may have surpassed the imagination of its author, the late great Robert Jordan.

An animated map with arrows

A simulation focused on where The Wheel of Time events take place, showing surface winds (white arrows). climatearchive.org. The World of the Wheel would have stronger and wavier high-altitude jet streams than modern-day Earth. This is likely because there are more mountain ranges in the World of the Wheel, which generate atmospheric waves called Rossby waves, causing oscillations in the jet. There is some limited evidence that the jet stream gets wavier with climate change as well, although this is likely to be less important than the mountain ranges. The jet would bring moisture from the western ocean on to land, and deposit it north of the Mountains of Dhoom. Surprising then, that this region (The Great Blight) is so desert-like in the books – perhaps there is some magic at play to explain this. Our simulation of the World of the Wheel, showing the jet stream (red and yellow arrows), surface winds (white arrows) and cloud cover (white mist). Source: https://climatearchive.org/wot. Winds would often revolve around two particularly enormous mountains, Dragonmount and Shayol Ghul, before blowing downslope and reaching far across the land masses. The peak of Dragonmount itself is nearly always surrounded by clouds, and this is because the mountain is so large the winds travelling up it force surface moisture to higher altitudes, thus cooling it, and forming clouds. The fact winds would be so different from modern-day Earth is predominantly caused by topography, not the underlying increased temperatures from climate change. Nevertheless, in the World of the Wheel, it is clear that despite the extremely long time since carbon polluted the atmosphere, the inhabitants are still exposed to warmer than usual temperatures. Acknowledging just how long the effects of climate change will persist for should be a catalyst for change. Yet, even after accepting the facts, we face psychological barriers to subsequent personal action, not least because comprehending the timescales of climate change requires a considerable degree of abstraction. But, given the known changes in extreme weather from climate change, and given how long these changes will remain, we must ask ourselves: how would the mysterious and powerful Aes Sedai stop the climate crisis?

PART-2: CRITICAL COMMENTARY

CLIMATE SCIENTISTS AND THEIR CLIMATE MODELS ARE GENERALLY CONSIDERED CREDIBLE AND CAPABLE OF PRIVIDING USEFUL FORECASTS SO PERHAPS WE SHOULD TAKE THESE FORECASTS FROM CLIMATE SCIENCE SERIOUSLY.

HOWEVER, THE DATA FROM THE PAST SHOW A VERY DIFFERENT PATTERN THAT IS GROSSLY INCONSISTENT WITH THE FORECAST OF AN INTERGLACIAL WARMING CYCLE OF 18,000 YEARS.

LINKS TO RELATED POSTS ON THIS ISSUE

AS SEEN IN THE RELATED POSTS LINKED BELOW, THE DATA FOR THE LAST TWO GLACIATION CYCLES SHOW CLEAR PATTERNS THAT ARE INCONSISTENT WITH THE CLIMATE SCIENCE ASSESSMENT OF AN 18,000-YEAR INTERGLACIAL WARMING CYCLE.

RELATED POST#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/12/25/youngerdryas/

RELATED POST#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/06/11/chaoticholocene/

RELATED POST#3: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/11/18/chaotic-interglacial-temperatures/

RELATED POST#4: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/11/09/the-issue-is-human-cause/

WHAT WE SEE IN THESE RELATED POSTS IS THAT GLACIATION CYCLES ARE CHAOTIC AT CENTENNIAL TO MILLENNIAL TIME SCALES AND THAT THIS CHAOTIC BEHAVIOR IS FOUND IN ALL THREE LEGS OF THE GLACIATION CYCLE, VIZ, GLACIATION, DEGLACIATION, AND INTERGLACIALS . WHAT WE ALSO FIND IS THAT THE TIME SCALE FOR GLACAITION CYCLES IS 200,000 YEARS WITH APPROXIMATELY 100,000 YEARS IN EACH PHASE OF THE CYCLE VIZ GLACIATION AND DEGLACIATION. IN BETWEEN DEGLACATION AND GLACIATION WE FIND THAT THE DEGLACIATED STATE CALLED “INTERGLACIAL” EXHIBITS THE SAME CHAOTIC BEHAVIOR AT THE SAME TIME SCALE. THIS MEANS THAT INTERGLACIALS ARE NEVER AT A STEADY STATE TEMPERATURE BUT THAT INTERGLACIALS TOO GO THROUGH VIOLENT AND CHAOTIC WARMING AND COOLING CYCLES AT MILLENNIAL AND CENTENNIAL TIME SCALES.

THE PROPOSITION THAT AN INTERGLACIAL WARMING CYCLE WILL PERSIST FOR 18,000 YEARS IS INCONSISTENT WITH THE PALEO DATA FOR GLACIATION CYCLES WITH SPECIFIC REFERENCE TO THE INTERGLACIAL [JHASE OF GLACATION CYCLES.

HOWEVER, NONE OF THIS IMPLIES A REASON FOR HUMANS TO TAKE CLIMATE ACTION BECAUSE THE SCIENCE OF CLIMATE SCIENCE, THOUGH IT DOES AN EXCELLENT JOB OF FORECASTNG THE HORRIFIC IMPACTS OF GLOBAL WARMING THAT COULD HAPPEN WITHOUT THE CLIMATE ACTION DEMANDEDBY THE CLIMATE SCIENCE, THIS DEMAND IS NOT SUPPORTED BY EMIPIRICAL EVIDENCE OF HUMAN CAUSE. EVEN AS CLIMATE SCIENCE SEES THE GLOBAL WARMING ISSUE AND THE DEMAND FOR CLIMATE ACTION IN TERMS OF ITS HARMFUL IMPACTS TO THE POINT OF A FORECAST OF 18,000 YEARS OF WARMING, THE ONLY ISSUE HERE IS HUMAN CAUSE. WITHOUT EVIDENCE OF HUMAN CAUSE THE DEMAND FOR CLIMATE ACTION DOES NOT MAKE SENSE EVEN WITH A HORRIFIC EXTENSION OF THE TIME SCALE OF THIS WARMING CYCLE TO 18,000 YEARS.

CONCLUSION: CLIMATE SCIENCE IS MORE FEAR APPEAL ACTIVISM THAN IT IS SCIENCE

RELATED POST ON ACTIVISM BY CLIMATE SCIENTISTS: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/02/03/hidden-hand/