Thongchai Thailand

WHAT THE TCRE TELLS US ABOUT CLIMATE SCIENCE

Posted on: November 18, 2021

Climate change is the one area of science Republicans tend to doubt | Grist

THE CLIMATE SCIENCE OF THE THEORY OF ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE BY WAY OF FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS IS FOUNDED ON THE THEORY OF CLIMATE SENSITIVITY. THIS THEORY HOLDS THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS A LOGARITHMIC FUNCTION OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION SUCH THAT THERE IS A UNIVERSAL CONSTANT CALLED “EQUILIBRIUM CLIMATE SENSITIVITY” OR “ECS” THAT RELATES EACH DOUBLING OF ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE TO A FIXED AMOUNT OF WARMING.

climatesensitivityvalues
SENSITIVITY2
climatesensitivityvalues3

HOWEVER, WHAT WE SEE IN THE IMAGES ABOVE AND IN THE DETAILS DESCRIBED IN A RELATED POST ON ECS UNCERTAINTY: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/05/10/the-climate-sensitivity-issue/ IS THAT, THOUGH THE THE THEORY OF ECS IS FOUNDED ON KNOWN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE AND THE KNOWN PROPERTIES OF CARBON DIOXIDE AND THOUGH IT IS DEFENSIBLE IN TERMS OF THIS THEORY, ITS PRACTICAL APPLICATION TO THE UNDERSTANDING OF THE CURRENT GLOBAL WARMING CYCLE OF THE HOLOCENE INTERGLACIAL OR ITS INTERPRETATION IN TERMS OF THE THEORY OF GLOBAL WARMING PROPOSED BY CLIMATE SCIENCE IS NOT POSSIBLE BECAUSE OF LARGE UNCERTAINTIES IN OBSERVED EMPIRICAL VALUES OF THE ESSENTIAL AND CRITICAL ECS PARAMETER.

IF WE DON’T KNOW WHAT THE VALUE OF THE ECS IS WE DON’T KNOW HOW GLOBAL WARMING WORKS AND BOTH THE GLOBAL WARMING THEORY OF CLIMATE SCIENCE AND THE CLIMATE ACTION ACTIVISM OF CLIMATE SCIENCE THAT CLAIM CREDIBILITY BECAUSE THEY ARE SCIENCE, ARE LEFT WITH A SCIENCE THAT HAS NO EMPIRICAL SUPPORT.

Meet Damon Matthews, a climate change expert at Concordia University -  YouTube
PROFESSOR DAMON MATHEWS, CLIMATE SCIENTIST, CONCORDIA UNIVERSITY

THESE WEAKNESSES IN THE FOUNDATIONAL THEORY OF ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING MOTIVATED CLIMATE SCIENCE TO ABANDON THIS THEORETICAL BASIS OF THE ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING HYPOTHESIS WHEN CLIMATE SCIENTIST, PROFESSOR DAMON MATTHEWS AND OTHERS, DISCOVERED A STRONG AND NEARLY PERFECT CORRELATION BETWEEN WARMING AND CUMULATIVE FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS.

ALTHOUGH THIS RELATIONSHIP HAS NO THEORETICAL BASIS, THE DISCOVERY OF THE STRONG CORRELATION RESCUED CLIMATE SCIENCE FROM THEIR ECS FAILURE AND PROVIDED THEM WITH THE NEEDED CAUSATION RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EMISSIONS AND WARMING FOR THE PROPOSITION THAT FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS CAUSE WARMING AND FOR THE DEMAND THAT THE NEEDED CLIMATE ACTION IS FOR HUMANS TO STOP BURNING FOSSIL FUELS.

DETAILS OF THIS DRAMATIC EVENT IN CLIMATE SCIENCE, THAT RESCUED THE SCIENCE MIDWAY IN THEIR MOVEMENT TO END THE BURNING OF FOSSIL FUELS, ARE PROVIDED IN A RELATED POST: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/05/06/consensus-science/

THIS NEAR PERFECT CORRELATION IS CALLED THE {TRANSIENT CLIMATE RESPONSE TO CUMULATIVE EMISSIONS} OR TCRE FOR SHORT. IT DERIVES ONLY FROM THE DISCOVERY OF A STRONG AND ALMOST PERFECT CORRELATION BETWEEN THE CHANGE IN GMST (WARMING) AND CUMULATIVE FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS. A USEFUL AND MUCH NEEDED APPLICATION OF THIS NEW CORREATION WAS QUICKLY DISCOVERED BY CLIMATE SCIENCE IN TERMS OF “CARBON BUDGET” ESTIMATIONS. A CARBON BUDGET IS THE AMOUNT OF EMISSIONS THAT CORRESPOND TO A GIVEN AMOUNT OF WARMING. HOWEVER, THERE IS NO THEORETICAL BASIS FOR THIS OBSERVED CORRELATION, AND IN RELATED POSTS WE SHOW THAT IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO INTERPRET THIS OBSERVED CORRELATION IN TERMS OF THE PHENOMENA OF NATURE THAT IT APPARENTLY REPRESENTS BECAUSE OF ITS MANY STATISTICAL ANOMALIES AND WEAKNESSES. {LINKS BELOW}

#1: YOUTUBE VIDEOS: CORRELATION BETWEEN CUMULATIVE VALUES OF RANDOM NUMBERS THAT FOLLOW CERTAIN SIGN PATTERNS

THE ISSUE HERE IS THAT THE FAUX “CORRELATION” IS A CREATION OF A SIGN PATTERN WHERE EMISSIONS ARE ALWAYS POSITIVE BY DEFINITION, AND IN A PERIOD OF WARMING, THE AMOUNT OF WARMING EACH YEAR IS MOSTLY POSITIVE ALTHOUGH NOT ALWAYS SO. AND THAT NOT EVERY YEAR IS A WARMING YEAR THUS SET THE TRAP FOR THE IMMEDIATE APPLICATION OF THIS NEW CORRELATION IN CLIMATE SCIENCE IN TERMS OF CONSTRUCTING WHAT IS CALLED THE “CARBON BUDGET”.

WHAT CLIMATE SCIENTISTS QUICKLY DISCOVERED IN THE CARBON BUDGET APPLICATION OF THE TCRE AND WHAT APPEARED TO THEM TO BE A MYSTERY IS THE SO CALLED “REMAINING CARBON BUDGET ANOMALY”. BRIEFLY, THE ISSUE HERE IS THAT IF YOU USE UP A PART OF YOUR CARBON BUDGET, THE REMAINING CARBON BUDGET CANNOT BE COMPUTED BY SUBTRACTION BUT MUST BE RECOMPUTED WITH THE TCRE RECOMPUTED FOR THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE CARBON BUDGET PERIOD. THIS APPEARS TO CLIMATE SCIENCE TO BE AN UNRESOLVED MYSTERY ALTHOUGH THE ISSUE IS SIMPLY THAT THOUGH ANNUAL WARMINGS ARE MOSTLY POSITIVE THEY ARE NOT ALWAYS SO AND THERE ARE RANDOM YEARS WHERE IT MAY HAVE COOLED. FOR THIS REASON, THE FRACTION OF POSITIVE WARMING YEARS IN THE FULL SPAN OF THE BUDGET PERIOD IS UNLIKELY TO EQUAL THE FRACTION OF WARMING YEARS IN A SELECTED PORTION OF THE FULL SPAN BUDGET PERIOD. WHAT CLIMATE SCIENCE THINKS IS A MYSTERY IS THE CLUE THAT THE TCRE IS A SPURIOUS CORRELATION THAT HAS NO INTERPRETATION IN THE REAL WORLD. IT SHOULD ALSO BE MENTIONED THAT A TIME SERIES OF THE CUMULATIVE VALUES OF ANOTHER TIME SERIES HAS NEITHER TIME SCALE NOR DEGREES OF FREEDOM AND THAT THEREFORE, THE CORRELATION BETWEEN CUMULATIVE VALUES HAS NO INTERPRETATION IN THE REAL WORLD.

AN EVEN MORE EGREGIOUS MATHEMATICAL ERROR IN THE CONSTRUCTION AND APPLICATIOON OF THE TCRE IS ITS MATHEMATICAL INCONSISTENCY. BRIEFLY, IN THE THEORY OF CLIMATE CHANGE, GMST IS A LOGARITHMIC FUNCTION OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION BUT IN THE TCRE, GMST IS A LINEAR FUNCTION OF ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION BECAUSE ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION IS A CREATION OF CUMULATIVE EMISSIONS. RELATED POST LINKED BELOW:

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/08/26/a-mathematical-inconsistency/

Tip of the Week: What's with all the inconsistency? | Change ...

MORE ANOMALIES IN THE TCRE MAY BE FOUND IN A RELATED POST ON STATISTICAL ERRORS IN CLIMATE SCIENCE. LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/05/18/climate-science-vs-statistics/

WE CONCLUDE THAT WHAT THE TCRE TELLS US ABOUT CLIMATE SCIENCE IS THAT THEIR NEED FOR SCIENCE IS NOT TO DISCOVER HOW THINGS WORK BUT TO VALIDATE WHAT THEY HAVE ALREADY DECIDED ABOUT HOW THINGS WORK.

Climate change is the one area of science Republicans tend to doubt | Grist
25 Cult Time Travel Movies That Are Worth Your Time | Taste Of Cinema -  Movie Reviews and Classic Movie Lists

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: