Thongchai Thailand

CHAOTIC INTERGLACIAL TEMPERATURE CYCLES

Posted on: November 18, 2021

THE CHAOTIC NATURE OF GLACIATION CYCLES ARE DESCRIBED IN RELATED POSTS O THIS SITE:

LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/12/25/youngerdryas/

LINK#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/06/25/chaos/

WHAT WE FIND IN THESE POSTS IS THAT GLACIATION IS NOT A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT AND PREDICTABLE PERIOD OF COOLING AND ICE FORMATION AND DEGLACIATION IS NOT A PERSISTENT AND PREDICTABLE PERIOD OF WARMING AND ICE MELT BUT THAT BOTH LEGS OF THE GLACIATION CYCLE CONSIST OF BOTH OF THESE PROCESSES AT THE SAME MILLENNIAL TIME SCALE BUT WITH A CHAOTIC VARIABILITY BETWEEN 500 TO 1500 YEARS.

THE ONLY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GLACIATION AND DEGLACIATION IS THAT THERE IS A SLIGHT EDGE FOR ICE FORMATION IN THE GLACIATION PHASE AND A SLIGHT EDGE FOR ICE MELT IN THE DEGLACIATION PHASE. BUT BOTH LEGS OF THE GLACIATION CYCLE EXHIBIT COOLING WITH ICE FORMATION AND WARMING WITH ICE MELT.

INTERGLACIALS

THE RELEVANT ASPECT OF THIS CHAOTIC BEHAVIOR IN THE CONTEXT OF THE GLOBAL WARMING ALARM OF CLIMATE SCIENTISTS, IS THAT IT IS ALSO FOUND IN INTERGLACIALS WITH THE ONLY DIFFERENCE BEING THAT THERE IS NO BIAS. THIS MEANS THAT INTERGLACIALS ARE NOT AT SOME STEADY STATE FIXED TEMPERATURE SUCH THAT WARMING OR COOLING CYCLES IN INTERGLACIALS REQUIRE AN EXPLANATION IN TERMS OF A CAUSE AND EFFECT HYPOTHESIS. THE ALTERNATING WARMING AND COOLING CYCLES OF INTERGLACIALS AT DIFFERENT TIME SCALES ARE BEST UNDERSTOOD AS THE CREATION OF THE CHAOTIC BEHAVIOR DESCRIBED ABOVE THAT CONTINUES INTO INTERGLACIALS AND THAT EVENTUALLY CAUSES A RETURN TO GLACIATION.

WHAT THIS IMPLIES IN THE CONTEXT OF THE GLOBAL WARMING ALARM OF OUR TIME THAT IS CLAIMED TO BE HUMAN CAUSED BY WAY OF FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS IS THAT AN INTERGLACIAL WARMING PERIOD IS NOT AN ANOMALY THAT REQUIRES AN EXPLANATION IN TERMS OF HUMAN CAUSE, AND THAT A HUMAN CAUSE HYPOTHESIS FOR A SELECTED WARMING PERIOD SUFFERS FROM DATA SELECTION BIAS AS WELL AS AN UNSUPPORTED ASSUMPTION THAT THE WARMING PERIOD SELECTED IS NOT NATURAL BUT HUMAN CAUSED AND THAT THEREFORE IT MUST HAVE BEEN THE FOSSIL FUELS THAT DID IT BECAUSE OUR USE OF FOSSIL FUELS BEGAN ABOUT THE SAME TIME AS THIS WARMING CYCLE GOT STARTED. THIS REASONING SUFFERS FROM DATA SELECTION BIAS AND A THEORY THAT EXPLAINS ONLY ONE SELECTED WARMING CYCLE OF THE HOLOCENE WITH NO EXPLANATION FOR THE OTHER WARMING AND COOLING CYCLES IN THE SAME INTERGLACIAL.

IF CLIMATE SCIENCE UNDERSTANDS INTERGLACIAL TEMPERATURE CYCLES AS CAUSE AND EFFECT PHENOMENA, THEY SHOULD EXPLAIN ALL OF THEM AND NOT SELECT JUST ONE OF THEM TO EXPLAIN IN THAT WAY. THAT KIND OF SCIENCE CONTAINS A FATAL WEAKNESS CALLED DATA SELECTION BIAS.

AN INTERPRETATION OF THIS KIND OF BIAS IN RESEARCH IS THAT THE PROPOSED CAUSATION HYPOTHESIS DERIVES FROM ACTIVISM.

LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/11/18/tcre-transient-climate-response-to-cumulative-emissions/

LINK#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/02/03/hidden-hand/

LINK#3: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/07/27/world-economic-forum-climate-activism/

LINK#4: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/10/19/emotion/

LINK#5: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/02/29/climate-activism/

LINK#6: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/04/03/divine-climate-activism/

LINK#7: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/09/09/creative-climate-activism/

The Power of Inclusive, Intergenerational Climate Activism - EcoWatch
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