Thongchai Thailand

2021 TROPICAL CYCLONES

Posted on: September 22, 2021

THE 2021 TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON WILL END IN NOVEMBER BUT HERE AS OF THE END OF SEPTEMBER, THERE HAS BEEN A GREAT DEAL OF SPECULATION THAT CLIMATE CHANGE HAS MADE THIS SEASON EXCEPTIONALLY SEVERE.

ACCORDING TO WIKIPEDIA: LINK: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclones_in_2021 , 114 TROPICAL CYCLONES HAD FORMED IN ALL SIX TROPICAL CYCLONE BASINS OF THE WORLD AND 67 OF THEM WERE STRONG ENOUGH TO BE NAMED. THE STRONGEST WAS TYPHOON SURIGAE IN THE WEST PACIFIC CYCLONE BASIN WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 220 KM/HR AND THE DEADLIEST WAS CYCLONE SEROJA IN THE SOUTH INDIAN CYCLONE BASIN. THE COSTLIEST WAS HURRICANE IDA IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC CYCLONE BASIN. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON SO FAR IS SUMMARIZED IN THE WIKIPEDIA IMAGE REPRODUCED BELOW.

DETAILS OF THESE TROPICAL CYCLONES MAY BE FOUND ON WIKIPEDIA.

THE CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUE

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT LEVEL OF SPECULATION ABOUT THE ROLE OF GLOBAL WARMING / CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE CREATION OF THE EXTENT, INTENSITY, AND DESTRUCTIVENESS OF THE 2021 TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON. HOWEVER, AS EXPLAINED IN THE CLIMATE SCIENCE REQUIREMENT FOR THAT ATTRIBUTION LISTED BELOW, IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO ATTRIBUTE ONE SEASON AT A TIME TO CLIMATE CHANGE. SUCH ATTRIBUTION CAN BE MADE ONLY WITH LONG TERM TRENDS OF 40 YEARS OF MORE OF THE TOTAL ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY OF ALL TROPICAL CYCLONES IN ALL SIX CYCLONE BASINS.

TOM KNUTSON, LEAD AUTHOR OF THIS PAPER

SUCH A STUDY IS PRESENTED IN A RELATED POST FOR A HISTORICAL TIME SPAN. NO STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT TREND IS FOUND IN TOTAL CYCLONE ENERGY OF ALL TROPICAL CYCLONES IN ALL CYCLONE BASINS. LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/11/28/trends-in-tropical-cyclone-activity/

THE RELEVANT IMAGES FROM THAT STUDY ARE REPRODUCED BELOW.

sstacegif

THE BOTTOM LINE:

NO EVIDENCE IS FOUND FOR A RISING TREND IN TOTAL ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY FOR ALL TROPICAL CYCLONES IN ALL SIX CYCLONE BASINS.

 

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