Thongchai Thailand

GLOBAL WARMING COLD WAVES

Posted on: September 4, 2021

How Arctic warming can trigger cold waves in North America – a new study  makes the connection

THE 2021 COLD WAVE OF NORTH AMERICA HAS BEEN ATTRIBUTED TO ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING AND IS THEREFORE THOUGHT TO BE A CREATION OF OUR USE OF FOSSIL FUELS.

2014 North American Cold Wave

WHAT THE SOURCE ARTICLES SAY

WASHINGTON POST: LINK: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/09/03/climate-change-arctic-texas-cold/

In a study released Thursday in the journal Science, the devastating Texas cold wave in February is linked to a stretching of the polar vortex in the stratosphere miles above ground level. This stretching mode, only recently categorized, has become more common over the last 40 years, the paper finds, and the increase may be related to human-caused climate change.

BBC: LINK: https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-58425526

Arctic

A new study shows that increases in extreme winter weather in parts of the US are linked to accelerated warming of the Arctic. The scientists found that heating in the region ultimately disturbed the circular pattern of winds known as the polar vortex. This allowed colder winter weather to flow down to the US, notably in the Texas cold wave in February. The authors say that warming will see more cold winters in some locations.

A SOURCE RESEARCH PAPER FOR THESE ARTICLES:

Matthias, Vivien, and Marlene Kretschmer. “The influence of stratospheric wave reflection on North American cold spells.” Monthly Weather Review 148.4 (2020): 1675-1690. ABSTRACT: While the relationship between the Arctic sea ice loss and midlatitude winter climate has been well discussed, especially on the seasonal mean scale, it remains unclear whether the Arctic sea ice condition affects the predictability of North American cold weather on the subseasonal time scale. Here we find that, in the presence of low Barents-Kara Sea (BKS) sea ice, sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) can favor surface cold spells over North America at the subseasonal timescale based on observations and model experiments. A persistent ridge of wave-2 pattern emerges over the Bering Sea-Gulf of Alaska several weeks after the SSW onset, with a coherent structure from the stratosphere to the surface, which, in turn, is conducive to synoptic cold air outbreaks in Canada and midwestern USA. This highlights a planetary wave pathway relating to BKS sea ice changes, by which the stratospheric polar vortex impacts the regional surface temperature on the subseasonal scale. In contrast, this mechanism does not occur with positive BKS sea ice anomaly. These findings help to improve the subseasonal predictability over North America, especially under the background of rapid change of Arctic sea ice in a warming world.

CRITICAL COMMENTARY

THE THEORY OF ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING IS THAT THE LONG TERM GLOBAL IMPACT OF BURNING FOSSIL FUELS OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME CAUSES A LONG TERM RISING TREND IN GLOBAL MEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE (GMST) AT TIME SCALES OF 40 YEARS OR ,LONGER. CLIMATE AND WEATHER EVENTS THAT ARE LOCALIZED AND NOT GLOBAL OR THAT OCCUR AT BRIEF TIME SCALES OF DECADAL OR LESS CANNOT BE UNDERSTOOD IN TERMS OF THIS THEORY; BUT MUST BE UNDERSTOOD IN TERMS OF INTERNAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/07/16/the-internal-variability-issue/

climate internal variability is just residual variance from ...

AS A DEMONSTRATION IT IS SHOWN IN A RELATED POST: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/01/11/global-warming-dec2020/ , THAT LONG TERM WARMING TRENDS IN GMST CONTAIN DECADAL TRENDS THAT ARE VOLATILE AND RANDOM. SAMPLE IMAGES FROM THE RELATED POST FOR GLOBAL MEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND ARCTIC MEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE ARE REPRODUCED BELOW.

GLOBAL

ARCTIC

CONCLUSION

IN VIEW OF THE ARGUMENTS PRESENTED ABOVE, WE PROPOSE THAT THE APPROPRIATE EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FOR THE THEORY THAT GLOBAL WARMING INCREASES COLD WAVE EVENTS IN THE NORTH AMERICA IS THE TIME SERIES FOR A LONG TERM TREND OF 40 YEARS OR MORE IN SUCH COLD EVENTS THAT SHOWS A STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT RISING TREND.

NO SINGLE EVENT NOR A CLUSTER OF EVENTS CAN SERVE AS EVIDENCE FOR A THEORY THAT GLOBAL WARMING, ACTING THROUGH ARCTIC WARMING, IS CAUSING A RISING TREND IN NORTH AMERICAN COLD WAVE EVENTS. SCIENTISTS WHO MAKE SUCH A CLAIM ARE EITHER DISHONEST OR SUFFER FROM A WEAKNESS IN STATISTICS EDUCATION. LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/05/18/climate-science-vs-statistics/

confusing middle class statistics | JB Shreve & the End of History

THAT A CAUSATION MECHANISM CAN BE PROPOSED FOR AN OBSERVED PHENOMENON POST HOC {AFTER THE FACT} DOES NOT SERVE AS EVIDENCE FOR THE PROPOSED CAUSATION. IT REMAINS A THEORY UNTIL VERIFIED BY THE DATA IN AN UNBIASED AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS.

MORE TO THE POINT, A THEORY DERIVED FROM THE DATA CANNOT BE TESTED WITH THE SAME DATA. THAT KIND OF EMPIRICAL RESEARCH SUFFERS FROM A CIRCULAR REASONING FALLACY COMMONLY KNOWN AS THE TEXAS SHARP SHOOTER FALLACY WHERE YOU SHOOT FIRST AND SELECT YOUR TARGET LATER.

Origin of the Texas Sharpshooter | Bayesian Spectacles

2 Responses to "GLOBAL WARMING COLD WAVES"

I probably should have asked first but I posted this on Facebook because you did a great job of explaining the difference between “weather” and “climate”.

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  • Ruben Leon: When your mind is made up you ignore the data and try to justify the bias you acquired as a juvenile and never questioned. The fact that the Antar
  • chaamjamal: Thank you for raising these interesting points. We live in strange times. Some day we may figure this out.
  • gregole: Funny after all that doom and gloom from Al Gore some years back I haven't seen much of him lately. Guess he made all the money he needed and is chil
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