QUESTION:

To what extent do you agree or not that climate change is making severe storms more prevalent in the US?

ANSWER:

This kind of thing can’t be settled with an opinion poll. According to climate scientists themselves and their theory of “internal climate vsriability”, the global warming issue can only be understood in terms of long term trends of 40 years or more of global data or data for significant latitudinal sections thereof. Short term weather events at time scales of weeks or months or climate phenomena that are localized; and certainly weather events that are both localized and brief, must be understood as Internal Climate Variability and not in terms of global warming.

THE HYPOTHESIS THAT GLOBAL WARMING CAUSES EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS CAN BE TESTED ONLY AGAINST LONG TERM TRENDS IN GLOBAL DATA FOR EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS; AND NOT WITH THE INDIVIDUAL EVENTS THEMSELVES THAT ARE BRIEF AND LOCALIZED AND UNDERSTOOD IN CLIMATE SCIENCE AS INTERNAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY.

Please see

INTERNAL VARIABILITY LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/07/16/the-internal-variability-issue/

ABSTRACT: Internal variability in the climate system confounds assessment of human-induced climate change and imposes irreducible limits on the accuracy of climate change projections, especially at regional and decadal scales. A new collection of initial-condition large ensembles generated with seven Earth system models under historical and future radiative forcing scenarios provides new insights into uncertainties due to internal variability versus model differences. These data enhance the assessment of climate change risks, including extreme events, and offer a powerful test-bed for new methodologies aimed at separating forced signals from internal variability in the observational record. Opportunities and challenges confronting the design and dissemination of future LEs, including increased spatial resolution and model complexity alongside emerging Earth system applications, are discussed.