Thongchai Thailand

Archive for August 2021

QUESTION:

What do you think will be the impact on our society in the future of technology and climate change?

ANSWER:


What I am hoping for and from what I think scientists and researchers will have learned from the ozone and climate activism movements of our time is that science and scientific research must mature and reach a level of sophistication and rigor among scientists and their audience, such that in the future both scientists and their audience will demand and adhere strictly to unbiased and objective scientific inquiry with checks and balances to ensure that science and research cannot be corrupted by activism of any color no matter how noble the cause may be.

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/02/03/hidden-hand/

MORE ON THE DOCUMENT LINKED ABOVE

stefan+greta

A Dearth of Carbon (w/ Dr. Patrick Moore, environmentalist) - YouTube
Fake Invisible Catastrophes and Threats of Doom by [Dr. Patrick Moore]

THE AUTHOR DESCRIBES HIS BOOK IN THIS WAY

It dawned on me one day that most of the scare stories in the media today are based on things that are either invisible, like CO2 and radiation, or very remote, like polar bears and coral reefs. Thus, the average person cannot observe and verify the truth of these claims for themselves. They must rely on activists, the media, politicians, and scientists – all of whom have a huge financial and/or political interest in the subject – to tell them the truth. This is my effort, after 50 years as a scientist and environmental activist, to expose the misinformation and outright lies used to scare us and our children about the future of the Earth. Direct observation is the very basis of science. Without verified observation it is not possible to know the truth. That is the sharp focus of this book.

An important target audience is parents who do not approve of the “progressive” school curriculum and its alarmism about the future of civilization and the threat of human civilization to the natural world and it is hoped that these parents will read his book and pass it on to their high-school and older children to give them an alternative view. We are being misinformed by environmental doomsday prophesies that the average citizen is unable to verify. We are told polar bears will go extinct soon though the data are inconsistent with that claim. We are told that there is something harmful in genetically modified food crops proposed as a religious idea without data or empirical evidence. We are told that all forest fires are caused by climate change if differences in forest management practices are overlooked. We are told that all the coral reefs will die although their repeated claims of the imminent demise of coral reefs remain unveried by the data. And we are told that CO2 from using fossil fuels, accounting for more than 80 percent of our energy supply, will make the Earth too hot for life.

He says that the book reveals all of these scare stories, to be falsehoods. The author was a founder and active member of Greenpeace for many decades. He left Greenpeace when in his assessment it had turned into an eco wacko fearmongering racket like the rest of the environmental movement.

This book is presented as the case against the demise of environmentalism into a fearmongering movement which ultimately led to the fearmongereing climate movement.

Alexander Belyakov. Ethical issues in Sustainability

RELATED POSTS ON ENVIRONMENTALISM GONE AWRY

Garrett Hardin on the Tragedy of the Commons and Resources - YouTube

LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/08/22/the-origin-of-eco-wacko/

LINK#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/08/14/wwf-climate-change/

LINK#3: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/08/04/environmentalism-vs-renewable-energy/

LINK#4: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/06/06/planet-of-the-humans-again/

LINK#5: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/07/22/our-obsession-with-the-end-of-times/

LINK#6: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/07/04/will-steffen-the-anthropocene-man/

LINK#7: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/06/30/dying-oceans/

LINK#8: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/07/28/the-horror-of-economic-growth/

LINK#9: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/03/30/the-humans-must-save-the-planet/

LINK#10: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/05/16/grantham-institute-climate-change/

LINK#11: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/04/27/natural-climate-action/

LINK#12: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/04/22/climate-science-101-4-22-2021/

LINK#13: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/03/31/eco-wacko-climate-science/

LINK#14: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/03/02/the-ocean-plastics-problem/

LINK#15: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/12/21/ozone-hole-environmentalism/

LINK#16: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/03/12/acidrain/

LINK#17: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/05/21/anti-globalization-environmentalism/

LINK#18: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/15/the-bambi-principle/

LINK#19: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/02/15/divine-environmentalism/

LINK#20: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/05/16/grantham-institute-climate-change/

A Dearth of Carbon (w/ Dr. Patrick Moore, environmentalist) - YouTube

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Scandinavia Railroad Map: Norway, Finland, Sweden, Denmark | Finland  travel, Sweden travel, Norway sweden finland

Strong Demand For Jackets…Northern Europe Sees Very Little Midsummer Warming Over Past 2 Decades
By P Gosselin on 20. August 2021. By Kirye and Pierre Gosselin

Has anyone ever wondered why many Swedes like going south for their summer holidays? Today to answer that question, we look at the July, 2021, mean temperature data for the stations in northern Europe for which the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) have enough data. Remember, global warming is said to be most visible at the far northern and Arctic regions, so northern Europe in places like Scandinavia should be showing signs of warming over the past 2 decades. But that isn’t the case. All the plotted data below are from the Japan Meteorological Agency.

SWEDEN

First we look at the mean July temperatures at 6 stations in Sweden, home of global warming alarmist teenager, Greta Thunberg. Since July 1997, three of 6 stations have shown no warming. Taken altogether, midsummer in Sweden is showing nothing unusual happening in terms of mean temperature.

NORWAY

The JMA has sufficient data for meaningful plots for 11 stations in Norway, Greta Thunberg’s neighbor to the west, which is located next to the far northern Atlantic and Arctic oceans. Here as well we see nothing unusual going on, except that it is not warming up as predicted. Six of 11 stations saw no July warming in Norway in 2021, going back 20 years. There is no reason to panic. Panic, by the way, is what lets them control populations. By not panicking, you’ll get the alarmists to panic about losing hold on their panic-based power.

FINLAND

Tabulating the data from the 6 stations for which the JMA has sufficient data for meaningful plots, Finland also has seen no notable mid-summer warming in almost a quarter century: Four of 6 stations in Finland show cooling or no meaningful July warming at all. Taken altogether, there’s probably in fact a slight amount of cooling in July.

As readers will note, mean July temperatures over northern Europe are usually deep into the teens Celsius, meaning Greta can expect having to always keep warm clothing at hand year-round – for the rest of her life.

CRITICAL COMMENTARY

THE THREE COUNTRIES, SWEDEN, NORWAY, AND FINLAND, TAKEN TOGETHER REPRESENT LESS THAN 1% OF THE WORLD’S LAND SURFACE AND LESS THAN 0.3% OF THE THE WORLD’S SURFACE AREA. TEMPERATURE DYNAMICS FOR A SINGLE CALENDAR MONTH OVER A 20-YEAR PERIOD IN THIS TINY LITTLE CORNER OF THE WORLD CANNOT BE UNDERSTOOD AS GLOBAL WARMING AND MUST BE INTERPRETED AS LOCAL CLIMATE DESCRIBED IN CLIMATE SCIENCE AS “INTERNAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY”.

DETAILS OF THE INTERNAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY ISSUE PROVIDED IN THE RELATED POST LINKED BELOW. IT IS ALSO NOTED THAT THE 20 TO 24 YEAR TIME SPANS OF THESE TEMPERATURE TREND STUDIES ARE RATHER SHORT

LINK TO INTERNAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/07/16/the-internal-variability-issue/

LINK TO UAH LOWER TROPOSPHERE TEMPERATURE DATA FROM 1979 TO 2020. HERE WE SHOW ROBUST 40-YEAR WARMING TRENDS IN GLOBAL MEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE AS WELL AS FOR THE SGNIFICANT LATITUDINAL SECTIONS THEREOF.

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/01/11/global-warming-dec2020/

THESE CHARTS SHOW GOOD EVIDENCE OF GLOBAL WARMING FOR THE 41-YEAR PERIOD 1979-2020 FOR GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE OR FOR SIGNIFICANT LATITUDINAL SECTIONS THEREOF. SPECIFICALLY WE SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHERN EXTENT LAND ONLY SECTION IS RELEVANT TO THE STUDY PRESENTED ABOVE. THE COMPARISON SHOWS THAT THE LOCALIZED STUDY HAS FAILED TO DETECT A GLOBAL PHENOMENON.

GLOBAL LAND AND OCEAN

GLOBAL LAND ONLY

GLOBAL OCEAN ONLY

TROPICS LAND AND OCEAN

NORTHERN EXTENT LAND AND OCEAN

NORTHERN EXTENT LAND ONLY

The Tragedy of the Tragedy of the Commons

A CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF THE ENVIRONMENTALISM OF GARRETT HARDIN

BY PROFESSOR MATTO MILDENBERGER, UC SANTA BARBARA

UC Santa Barbara from above - YouTube


Hardin saw all humans as selfish herders: we worry that our neighbors’ cattle will graze the best grass. So, we send more of our cows out to consume that grass first. We take it first, before someone else steals our share. This creates a vicious cycle of environmental degradation that Hardin described as the “tragedy of the commons.”, i.e., competition among humans for nature’s best products is destructive. In that context it is relevant that Hardin subscriibed to EUGENICS as well as to human overpopulation. He also promoted what he called LIFEBOAT ETHICS which holds that since global resources are finite, the rich should throw the poor overboard to keep their boat above water. It is not a good idea for the rich to help the poor. Hardin’s works are filled with fear-mongering proclaiming that freedom to breed is intolerable. He wrote that it is better for children of improvident parents to starve to death. He also writes that if we love the truth we must openly deny the validity of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. He favors a fascism because of its ability to remove the unwanted gene pools consistent with eugenicism. On the matter of race he wrote that that only racially homogenous societies survive and prosper. Neo-Nazis cite Hardin to justify their position. Hardin lobbied Congress against sending food aid to poor nations, because he believed their populations were threatening Earth’s carrying capacity and so only the best should be allowed to survive. With regard to the commons, early pastures were well regulated by local institutions an even in the wild, humans understood the mutual gains from cooperation. There was no destructive competition for grazing in the commons. Many global commons sustain through community institutions and cooperation. Humans have created a diversity of institutions to manage and share our shared environment. Of course, humans can deplete finite resources. This often happens when we lack appropriate institutions to manage them. We must reject his pernicious ideas on both scientific and moral grounds. Are we really prepared to follow Hardin and say there are only so many lead pipes we can replace? Only so many bodies that should be protected from cancer-causing pollutants? Only so many children whose futures matter? This is particularly important when we deal with climate change. The climate crisis is not a tragedy of the commons. The culprit is not our individual impulses to consume fossil fuels to the ruin of all. And the solution is not to let small islands in Chesapeake Bay or whole countries in the Pacific sink into the past, without a seat on our planetary lifeboat.


Let’s stop the mindless invocation of Hardin. Let’s stop saying that we are all to blame because we all overuse shared resources. Let’s stop championing policies that privilege environmental protection for some human beings at the expense of others. And let’s replace Hardin’s flawed metaphor with an inclusive vision for humanity—one based on democratic governance and cooperation

Café Bambi - โพสต์ | Facebook

BLOGGER’S SUMMARY

WHAT YOU WON’T FIND IN THE MEDIA IS THAT GARRETT HARDIN, GOD OF ENVIRONMENTALISM, WAS A SIGNIFICANT ACTIVIST IN FAILED ECO WACKO ANTI HUMAN DOOMOLOGY SUCH AS THE POPULATION BOMB, THE EUGENICS MOVEMENT, AND THE ILLOGICAL SEPARATION OF HUMANS AND NATURE, THAT PECULIAR WEIRDNESS OF ENVIRONMENTALISM THAT BEGINS WITH THE ASSUMPTION THAT HUMANS ARE NOT PART OF NATURE BUT SPACE INVADERS THAT THREATEN OTHERWISE PRISTINE NATURE AS SEEN FOR EXAMPLE IN THE BAMBI PRINCIPLE OF ENVIRONMENTLISM AND GENESIS OF THE BIBLE.

LINK TO BAMBI: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/15/the-bambi-principle/

THE ISSUE AND SUBJECT MATTER OF A COP IS STRICTLY CLIMATE ACTION. TO FORMULATE AND TO IMPLEMENT A CLIMATE ACTION PLAN ON A GLOBAL SCALE IN THE IMAGE OF THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL – THE SO CALLED “MONTREAL PROTOCOL FOR THE CLIMATE. (MPFC). THE OTHER RELEVANT ISSUE HERE IS THAT THE REASON WE NEED THE GLASGOW COP26 IN THE YEAR 2021 IS THAT THE 25 PREVIOUS COPS HELD SINCE 1995 HAVE ALL FAILED. EVEN THE SO CALLED “PARIS AGREEMENT” THAT HAD BEEN PRESENTED TO US AS A SUCCESS IS NOW REVEALED TO BE A FAILURE SIMPLY BECAUSE THE NEED FOR COP26 REVEALS THE UGLY TRUTH THAT ALL THE PREVIOUS COPS HAVE FAILED. AND INDEED THEY HAVE AS WE EXPLAIN BELOW.

COP26 at the SEC in Glasgow — BIG HIT

IT HAS BEEN MORE THAN A QUARTER OF A CENTURY SINCE THE UN HELD THE FIRST CONFERENCE OF PARTIES TO THE UNFCCC THAT WAS ADVERTISED AS THE CONFERENCE THAT WOULD YIELD A GLOBAL CLIMATE ACTION CONTRACT AS IN THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL DESCRIBED AS THE {MONTREAL PROTOCOL FOR THE CLIMATE} OR MPFC, BUT THE CONFERENCE OF PARTIES {OR “COP”} FAILED TO REACH A CLIMATE ACTION AGREEMENT. THIS SET THE UNITED NATIONS ON A COMICAL JOURNEY OF MORE THAN TWO DECADES OF FAILED COP MEETINGS DESCRIBED IN A RELATED POST: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/06/05/the-paris-agreement/ AND PRESENTED BELOW.

HERE WE PRESENT THIS COMICAL HISTORY OF COPS FROM THE RELATED POST LINKED ABOVE.

UNFCCC: For a global climate action agreement signed by all nations, the UN put together a global agreement signed by almost all nations called the UNFCCC where the signatories agreed that climate change is a global problem that needs a global solution. The nations that signed this agreement are called Parties to the UNFCCC. or just “parties” for short. The next and final step in resolving the climate crisis and to get the Montreal Protocol for the Climate signed by all Parties was to call a “Conference of Parties” or COP for the parties to sign a binding emission reduction agreement. That the COP would produce the global climate action agreement was a given since the UN had produced the Montreal Protocol and since the Parties had signed the UNFCCC.

But SURPRISE SURPRISE SURPRISE, the CONFERENCE OF PARTIES that the UN was sure would yield a global climate action agreement just like the Montreal Protocol and the UNFCCC, ended without a signed “Montreal Protocol for the Climate (MPFC). NOW WHAT????

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IT WAS THIS UNANTICIPATED FAILURE OF THE UN THAT BEGAN THE LONG AND COMICAL SEQUENCE OF COP AFTER COP NUMBERED FROM 1 TO 25 AND NOW EXTENDED TO 26. AFTER THE SURPRISE SURPRISE SURPRISE FAILURE OF WHAT WAS SUPPOSED TO BE THE FIRST AND ONLY COP, THE UN BUREAUCRATS DECIDED THAT ALL THEY NEEDED TO DO WAS TO HOLD THE COP AGAIN WITH SOME CHANGES TO THE CLIMATE ACTION CONTRACT, TO OFFER FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE TO THE POOR COUNTRIES AND CHARGE THE RICH COUNTRIES FOR THAT ASSISTANCE, AS WELL AS TO SCHEDULE SPEECHES BY CLIMATE SCIENTISTS WITH GREATER FEAR APPEAL AGAINST FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS.

COP2 2006: SO THE COP WAS HELD AGAIN IN 2006, THIS TIME IN GENEVA SWITZERLAND, WITH CHANGES THE UN BUREAUCRATS WERE SURE WOULD YIELD A GLOBAL CLIMATE ACTION AGREEMENT. ACCORDING TO THE UN, THE REPEAT COP, NOW KNOWN AS COP2, ADOPTED 18 DECISIONS ABOUT EXEMPTIONS, FINANCE, TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE, AND SOMETHING CALLED “EFFECTIVE EVALUATION” BUT SURPRISE, SURPRISE, SURPRISE, THE SECOND ATTEMPT AT THE COP YIELDED NO CLIMATE ACTION AGREEMENT. THE REPEAT COP, NOW KNOWN AS COP2, HAD FAILED JUST AS THE ORIGINAL COP HAD.

Customer Reviews: Gomer Pyle U.S.M.C.: The Complete Series [24 Discs] [DVD]  - Best Buy

 

SO THE UN HAD TO MAKE YET ONE MORE ATTEMPT TO GET THE PARTIES TO SIGN A GLOBAL CLIMATE ACTION PROGRAM. THIS NEXT MEETING WAS HELD IN KYOTO JAPAN IN 1997 AND IT IS KNOWN AS COP3. THERE THE UN IN CONCERT WITH ITS IPCC CLIMATE CHANGE SPECIALISTS HAD DEMANDED A 60% REDUCTION IN FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS BY 2012 BUT SURPRISE, SURPRISE, SURPRISE, IN THE END ALL THEY COULD GET THE PARTIES TO SIGN WAS A REDUCTION OF 5.2%.

Customer Reviews: Gomer Pyle U.S.M.C.: The Complete Series [24 Discs] [DVD]  - Best Buy

 THE SHORT OF THE STORY IS THAT The UN bureaucrats were unable to comprehend the enormous difference between changing refrigerants in the Montreal Proocol and overhauling the world’s energy infrastructure, and the idea that the Montreal Protocol could be repeated in the climate issue encouraged the UN bureaucrats to continue the process of tweeking the contract, of bringing in more impressive speakers and more scary assessments of what will happen if we don’t do the MPFC. The short version of this story is that after COP3, COP4, COP5, COP6, COP7, COP8, COP9, COP10, COP11, COP12, COP13, COP14, and the very dramatic COP15 in Copenhagen that was described by climate scientists, climate activists, and the UN bureaucrats as a DO OR DIE meeting. It died. But the climate movement and the UN could not accept this devastating failure and the UN bureaucrats decided that what they needed was a change in strategy. It was the devastating failure in Copenhagen that convinced the UN bureaucrats that more and more speakers with greater and greater fear of climate change will not work and will not deliver the MPFC. It was in Copenhagen that the subtle shift in strategy was made. The new strategy was to keep toning down the demands in the MPFC until all the Parties would sign the climate agreement.

THE NEW DESPERATION STRATEGY OF THE UN BUREAUCRATS WAS THEN, THAT IF THEY WON’T SIGN THE CONTRACT WE WROTE, WE MUST WRITE THE CONTRACT THEY WILL SIGN AND IN COP25 IN PARIS, THIS DESPERATE STRATEGY BECAME TRANSFORMED INTO THE TWILIGHT ZONE. THE DESPERATION OF THE UN TO HAVE SOMETHING IN THEIR HAND THEY COULD CALL AN AGREEMENT TOOK THEM TO THE TWILIGHT ZONE STRATEGY OF “IF THEY WON’T SIGN THE CONTRACT WE WROTE AND IF THEY CAN’T AGREE ON A SINGLE CONTRACT LET THEM EACH WRITE THE CONTRACT THEY WILL SIGN SEPARATELY. THESE SEPARATE AND INCONSISTENT CONTRACTS WRITTEN SEPARATELY BY EACH PARTICIPATING COUNTRY WERE THEN COLLECTED INTO THE SAME BOX AND THAT BOX WAS THEN CALLED THE PARIS AGREEMENT, THE FIRST AGREEMENT THAT THE UN WAS ABLE TO GET FROM THE PARTIES SINCE COP1 AND THIS BOX SOON BECAME FAMOUS AS THE SO CALLED “PARIS AGREEMENT” WITH THE UN VINDICATED AND EVEN CONGRATULATED FOR HAVING FINALLY DELIVERED THE GLOBAL CLIMATE ACTION PROGRAM, THE SO CALLED MONTREAL PROTOCOL FOR THE CLIMATE.

The Twilight Zone Illustrations - Design Force

The new desperate strategy was this: If they won’t sign the contract we wrote let them write the contract that they will sign. And so it was that in COP25 in Paris, France that this new strategy was implemented where each nation could independently and in isolation write the agreement that it was willing to sign and then sign it. The collection of these “INDC”s that don’t agree is then assumed to be an AGREEMENT of some kind so the UN can say that they did their job and delivered the MPFC. The contradictions in this claim have gone unchallenged and so it is to this day that we still accept a collection of INDCs that don’t agree and that are not binding as some kind of global climate action contract that can be claimed to be the delivery of the promised MPFC. The reality is that the Paris Agreement is not an Agreement to agree but an agreement to disagree and that therefore there is no MPFC and no global agreement to cut global emissions and that this is why we are in an illogical climate action plan of the climate heroism of nation states without a MPFC to reduce global emissions.

The new strategy of the UN Secretary General of a role as cheerleader for climate heroism of nation states is now the confused state of affairs in the expectation that the UN would deliver the MPFC. That didn’t happen. We do not have an MPFC. THE ONLY FUNCTION OF THE PARIS AGREEMENT IS THAT IT ALLOWS THE UN TO PUNCH OUT WITH A FACE SAVING CLAIM OF HAVING DELIVERED THE EXPECTED MPFC SUCCESS. AND YET, THAT WE NEED A COP26 IN GLASGOW IN 2021 IS THE EVIDENCE THAT THERE IS NO MPFC. AFTER BILLIONS OF DOLLARS AND MORE THAN 25 YEARS OF THE PROMISE OF DELIVERING THE MPFC, ALL THE UN CAN DO IS TO SCHEDULE YET ANOTHER COP.

NUMNUT UN BUREAUCRAT USES COVID TO SELL CLIMATE | Thongchai Thailand
That's All Folks HD - YouTube

RELATED POST ON THE PARIS AGREEMENT LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/06/05/the-paris-agreement/

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LINK TO SOURCE AND FULL TEXT: https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2010.2325

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION:

IN MODERN TIMES THE CONCEPT OF FREE WILL HAS EVOLVED FROM A THEOLOGICAL AND METAPHYSICAL CONCEPT TO A STUDY OF THE FUNCTION OF THE BRAIN IN TERMS NEURONS, CIRCUITS, AND COGNITION AND THEIR INTER-RELATIONSHIPS. TODAY, FREE WILL IS NO LONGER A METAPHYSICAL OR BIBLICAL CONCEPT. IT SIMPLY DEFINES HOW THE BRAIN RESPONDS TO EXTERNAL STIMULI. WHEN STUDIED IN THAT WAY WE FIND THAT ANIMALS ALSO HAVE BRAINS WITH THE SAME BRAIN FUNCTION CATEGORIES AND THEREFORE, THE CONCEPT OF FREE WILL CAN NO LONGER BE LIMITED TO HUMANS. AS SEEN IN THE IMAGES ABOVE, THIS DEFINITION OF FREE WILL IS FOUND EVEN IN FRUIT FLIES.

THIS POST IS A DESCRIPTION OF WHAT LIFE WAS LIKE IN PRE INDUSTRIAL ENGLAND BASED ON INFORMATION FROM SCHOOLS HISTORY.ORG.UK: LINK TO SOURCE: https://schoolshistory.org.uk/topics/british-history/industrial-revolution/before-the-industrial-revolution/

Pre-mechanisation. Hand Loom that is typical of machines before the Industrial Revolution

PART-1: WHAT THE SOURCE ARTICLE SAYS

Before the dawn of the Industrial Revolution Britain was a quite different place to the one that exists today. Industrialisation brought with it new types of roads, trains and many other forms of communications which simply did not exist prior to industrialisation. So before the Industrial Revolution it was very hard to keep in touch with people in other parts of the country. News was spread by travellers or through messengers and goods were distributed largely within the locality in which they were produced. Travel was very difficult before the Industrial Revolution as there was no means of mechanised transport. By the turn of the Twentieth Century this had changed dramatically. Because it was so hard to move around: and remember, there were no cars, aeroplanes or even tarmac roads, people had to rely upon themselves and their communities to provide the vast majority of the things that they needed. Food was produced locally, agriculture could provide for but a few large commercial towns. Clothing was made locally, making use of animal hides and furs: nylon wasn’t an option and cotton wasn’t imported in large quantities until developments enabled mass production of goods. Life was, for the bulk of the population, the life of a farmer. By the 18th century the feudal system was long gone, but in it’s place was a system in which the people were as reliant upon each other and their master as before. In general then, people worked in villages and small towns, working the land and relying upon the local community to provide for them. Some people were fortunate enough to benefit from imported goods which came into ports such as London and Bristol in increasing quantities from the Elizabethan age onwards. What was manufactured was done making use of natural elements. Windmills for example could make the life of a miller easier. Pre-mechanisation. Hand Loom that is typical of machines before the Industrial Revolution The illustration shows a Hand Loom. These were used in the Textiles Industry. A Hand Loom was used to weave cloth. Hand Looms are labour intensive, they require one worker per loom. These looms did not require a large factory setting. Education was poor. The rich were catered for by nannies and private tutors. There were of some schools and several universities. These were not for the ordinary man or woman though, indeed girls were largely excluded from education after the age of 7. Politics was based upon land ownership and military honours won, with women and ordinary men given few rights. Life as a result was a constant battle against famine, a wicked landlord, overwork and sheer bad luck. Industrialisation would change only some of these worries. Poverty was a problem before the Industrial Revolution. Many jobs in agriculture are seasonal. This meant that they were only available at certain times of the year. Likewise the merchants in towns often found that they had busy periods and quiet periods. In both cases, this led to people having work that was not guaranteed for the longer term. A system to help the poor had been introduced toward the end of Elizabeth I’s reign. The Elizabethan Poor Law had been amended in the following years. It still governed much of practise though. The Poor were looked after by individual parishes. For some, this meant the workhouse.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE TEXT ABOVE

  1. COMMUNICATION: Roads, trains and other forms of communications did not exist prior to industrialisation. So before the Industrial Revolution it was very hard to keep in touch with people in other parts of the country. News was spread by travellers or through messengers and goods were distributed largely within the locality in which they were produced
  2. EDUCATION: Education was poor. The rich were catered for by nannies and private tutors. There were of some schools and universities for the elite and for men and boys. Girls were excluded from education after age 7.
  3. POLITICS: Politics was based upon land ownership and military honours, with women and ordinary men excluded., and thus for most people, life was a constant battle against famine, cruel landlords, and hard work.
  4. POVERTY: Poverty was a big problem. Agriculture jobs were seasonal. Also, the merchants had busy periods and slow periods when workers were not needed. Jobs were episodic and seasonal. A system to help the poor had been introduced toward the end of Elizabeth I’s reign.
  5. MANUFACTURING: What was manufactured was done making use of natural elements. Windmills for example could make the life of a miller easier. Pre-mechanisation. Hand Loom that is typical of machines before the Industrial Revolution. The image below shows a Hand Loom. These were used in the Textiles Industry. A Hand Loom was used to weave cloth. Hand Looms are labour intensive, they require one worker per loom. These looms did not require a large factory setting.
  6. CHILD LABOR: Contrary to popular belief, child labor in England was not a creation of the Industrial Revolution but was initially a continuation of this pre-industrial practice that was eventually eliminated when living standards, education, and the value systems of the population were changed by the industrial revolution. In fact, in the end, the industrial revolution ended child labor.
Work versus School during the Industrial Revolution (Chapter 7) - Childhood  in Modern Europe

Pre-mechanisation. Hand Loom that is typical of machines before the Industrial Revolution

THE IMAGE OF THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION AS AN EVIL THAT COULD DESTROY HUMAN CIVILIZATION AND THE PLANET ITSELF IS INCONSISTENT WITH THIS HISTORY.

Business before industrialization: Are there lessons to learn? | The Long  Run
THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION - ppt video online download

QUESTION:

How big of a threat is climate change really?

ANSWER:

The future is hard to forecast but the past is easy to hindcast. And if we study the past we find that we Homo Sapiens have been through two glaciation cycles, two deglaciation cycles and about 20 interglacial warming and cooling cycles and we’re still here and the planet is still here, and through all this climate hell our species have advanced and made great progress in our quality of life. I propose that in that context, the idea that this interglacial warming cycle will do us in does not make sense.

CITATION:

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/06/27/modern-humans-climate-change/

EXCERPT:

WE MODERN HUMANS HAVE BEEN THROUGH TWO GLACIATION CYCLES AND TWO INTERGLACIALS. THIS INTERGLACIAL, THE HOLOCENE, IS OUR SECOND INTERGLACIAL AND IT WAS CREATED AFTER OUR SECOND GLACIATION HAD ENDED. OUR FIRST GLACIATION WAS THE PRIOR GLACIATION CYCLE THAT HAD ENDED IN THE EEMIAN INTERGLACIAL ABOUT 120,000 YEARS AGO. IN OUR FIRST GLACIATION CYCLE WE WERE PALEOLITHIC HUMANS, ESSENTIALLY TWO LEGGED ANIMALS LIVING ISOLATED LIVES IN CAVES WITH IMMEDIATE FAMILY AND HUNTING AND EATING OTHER ANIMALS INCLUDING OTHER HUMANS. THESE PRIMITIVE HUMANS SURVIVED TWO VIOLENT AND CHAOTIC GLACIATIONS AND THE PREVIOUS INTERGLACIAL, CALLED THE EEMIAN THAT WAS A STRONGER AND MORE VIOLENT INTERGLACIAL THAN THE HOLOCENE WITH HOTTER WARMING CYCLES THAN WHAT WE HAVE TODAY. FOLLOWING IN THE HEELS OF THE EEMIAN INTERGLACIAL, OUR PALEOLITHIC ANCESTORS SURVIVED THE NEXT GLACIATION AND ITS VIOLENT DEGLACATION INTO THE HOLOCENE INTERGLACIAL THAT WE ARE IN TODAY. THAT TOOK US TO THE FIRST OF MANY GLOBAL WARMING CYCLES OF THE HOLOCENE IN WHICH OUR PALEOLITHIC ANCESTORS FOUND THEMSELVES IN A STRONG 4,000-YEAR GLOBAL WARMING CYCLE CALLED THE “HOLOCENE CLIMATE OPTIMUM (HCO)”. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THEY SURVIVED THE GLOBAL WARMING AND THE PLANET SURVIVED THE GLOBAL WARMING. AND WE THEIR DESCENDENTS ARE STILL HERE AND ALIVE AND WELL AND THE PLANET IS STILL HERE. THE HCO WAS JUST AS HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN THE GLOBAL WARMING WE ARE IN NOW WHICH WE HAVE BEEN TAUGHT TO FEAR. AS IT TURNS OUT, OUR MODERN HUMAN ANCESTORS DID MORE THAN JUST SURVIVE THE HCO. THE HCO GLOBAL WARMING GAVE US THE RIGHT KIND OF A WARM CLIMATE FOR OUR PALEOLITHIC ANCESTORS TO COME OUT OF THEIR CAVES, TO CLEAR THE FORESTS, TO BEGIN FARMING, AND TO BUILD HOMES AND TO CREATE COMMUNITIES OF HUMANS. THIS EVENT WAS A GIANT STEP IN THE ADVANCE OF THE HUMAN SPECIES FROM PALEOLITHIC TO NEOLITHIC, FROM HUMAN ANIMALS TO HUMAN CIVILIZATION. HUMAN CIVILIZATION IS A CREATION OF THE HCO GLOBAL WARMING OF THE HOLOCENE., THE SAME INTERGLACIAL WHOSE WARMING CYCLES WE HAVE NOW BEEN TAUGHT TO FEAR.

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF AN ARTICLE IN SCIENCE NEWS THAT DESCRIBES THE HORRIFIC IMPACT OF THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES OF GLOBAL WARMING ON HUMANS.

LINK TO SOURCE: https://www.sciencenews.org/article/extreme-heat-climate-change-human-behavior-aggression-equity

THE HORRIFIC EFFECTS OF THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES ON HUMANS LISTED IN THE SCIENCE NEWS ARTICLE ARE AS FOLLOWS.

HORRIFIC EFFECT #1: HEAT AND AGGRESSION:

Social psychologist Craig Anderson and colleagues showed undergraduates four video clips of couples engaged in dialog. One clip was neutral in tone, while the remaining three showed escalating tension between the duo. The undergraduate students watching the clips were each sitting in a room with the thermostat set to one of five different temperatures, ranging from a cool 14° C to a hot 36° C. The researchers then asked the students to score the couples’ hostility level. Anderson found that students in uncomfortably warm rooms scored all the couples, even the neutral one, as more hostile than students in rooms with comfortable temperatures did. (Interestingly, students in uncomfortably cold rooms also scored the couples as more hostile.). Heat tends to make people more irritable and as a result, they tend to just perceive things as being more nasty when they’re hot than when they’re comfortable. Research suggests that such perceptions can give way to actual violence when people lack an escape hatch. But this “heat-aggression hypothesis” has been hard to demonstrate outside the lab because teasing out the effect of heat from other environmental or biological variables linked to aggression is tricky in the messy real world. Studies in the last few years, however, have started confirming the idea.

HORRIFIC EFFECT #2: FUELING CRIME:

A new study looking at crime data in Los Angeles from 2010 to 2017 shows that violent crime rises when temperatures exceed a pleasant 65° to 70° Fahrenheit as seen in the chart below. For instance, a July working paper out of the National Bureau of Economic Research studied inmates in Mississippi prisons and jails that lack air conditioning. They looked at rates of violence across 36 correctional facilities from January 1, 2004, to December 31, 2010. Overall, each facility averaged about 65 violent acts per year. But on days above around 27° C — which occur about just over 60 days per year — the probability of violence among inmates rose 18 percent. Though that doesn’t seem that hot, most of those days of had an average maximum temperature of roughly 34° C; nor do those temperature readings account for Mississippi’s high humidity. Moreover, many of the country’s aging correctional facilities lack both air conditioning and proper ventilation, and temperatures inside the facilities often exceed temperatures outside. Politicians often frame providing inmates with air conditioning as a matter of comfort but at high temperatures it becomes a moral issue. Extrapolating from the Mississippi data, we find that heat generates an additional 4,000 violent acts each year in U.S. correctional facilities. Research also suggests that violence spikes with heat outside of prisons too. For instance, for the months May to September from 2010 to 2017, violent crime in Los Angeles was about 5.5 percent higher on warmer days. Violent crime was almost 10 percent higher on even hotter days.

chart plotting violent crime and temperature, showing that violent crime rises when temperatures exceed 65° to 70° Fahrenheit

HORRIFIC EFFECT #3: HEAT AND PERFORMANCE:

The relationship between heat and human behavior extends well beyond violence. Consider students taking exams in hot school buildings. Students in New York City sitting for standardized subject-specific high school exams that each take about three hours and are administered at the student’s home school for a two-week period at the end of June. Temperatures at that time can vary from 15° C to almost 37° C. Data for scores oa almost 1 million students and about 4.5 million exams from 1999 to 2011 show as follows. Students who take the exam on an approximately 32° C day are 10 percent less likely to pass a given subject than if they had taken that exam on a 24° C day. A study of how hot temperatures affect students’ performance across the country was studied with the PSAT, a standardized exam administered to high schoolers in October that measures college readiness and provides a pathway to scholarships. The team evaluated 21 million scores from nearly 10 million students who took the exam at least twice from 1998 to 2012. The study found that student scores typically increase between the first time they take the exam and the second but even when the researchers factored in that rise, students in schools without air conditioning scored lower than would have been expected. What’s more, Black and Hispanic students were more likely to attend school and test in hotter buildings than their white counterparts, and the researchers estimate that the resulting temperature differences explained 3 to 7 percent of the PSAT’s racial achievement gap.That sort of performance decline doesn’t just happen in academic settings; it extends to the workforce too. In the study of garment factories, researchers found that when temperatures climbed beyond 35° C, average daily production in weaving operations dropped by about 2 percent and garment sewing by as much as 8 percent, compared with days under 30° C. The researchers then scaled up to industries across India using national survey data. That analysis showed that productivity started dropping when average daily maximum temperatures rose above 20° C. The researchers’ calculations suggest that average annual output will decrease by 2.1 percent if average daily temperatures warm by 1 degree C over current conditions; annual gross domestic product, or the value of goods and services produced in a single year, would drop by 3 percent.

CONCLUSION: GLOBAL WARMING MEANS HIGHER AND HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND THEREFORE OF HIGHER LEVELS OF AGGRESSION AND CRIME AND LOWER LEVELS OF PERFORMANCE OF THE HUMANS. OMG! OMG!

Climate change and crime in cities - Igarapé Institute
Crime, Violence, and Global Warming - 1st Edition - John P. Crank - Li

HUMAN CAUSE: THE REAL ISSUE HERE IS HUMAN CAUSE BECAUSE WITHOUT EVIDENCE OF HUMAN CAUSE OF THE WARMING TREND, WHATEVER IMPACTS THE WARMING MAY HAVE ARE ALL NATURAL.

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/11/09/the-issue-is-human-cause/

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL EVALUATION OF A NEW ASSESSMENT BY CLIMATE SCIENCE ABOUT HOW THE SUCCESSFUL MONTREAL PROTOCOL TO ARREST OZONE DEPLETION HELPED TO MODERATE CLIMATE CHANGE.

LINK TO SOURCE: https://www.lancaster.ac.uk/news/scientists-reveal-how-landmark-cfc-ban-gave-planet-fighting-chance-against-global-warming

PART-1: WHAT THE LANCASTER UNIVERSITY ARTICLE SAYS


Without the global CFC ban we would already be facing the reality of a ‘scorched earth’, according to researchers measuring the impact of the Montreal Protocol. Their new evidence reveals the planet’s critical ability to absorb carbon from the atmosphere could have been massively degraded sending global temperatures soaring if we still used ozone-destroying chemicals such as CFCs. New modelling by the international team of scientists from the UK, USA and New Zealand, published today in Nature, paints a dramatic vision of a scorched planet Earth without the Montreal Protocol, what they call the “World Avoided”. This study draws a new stark link between two major environmental concerns – the hole in the ozone layer and global warming. The research team, led by a Lancaster University scientist, reveals that if ozone-destroying chemicals, which most notoriously include CFCs, had been left unchecked then their continued and increased use would have contributed to global air temperatures rising by an additional 2.5°C by the end of this century. Their findings, outlined in the paper ‘The Montreal Protocol protects the terrestrial carbon sink’, show that banning CFCs has protected the climate in two ways – curbing their greenhouse effect and, by protecting the ozone layer, shielding plants from damaging increases in ultraviolet radiation (UV). Critically, this has protected plant’s ability to soak up and lock in carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and so prevented a further acceleration of climate change.

The research team developed a new modelling framework, bringing together data on ozone depletion, plant damage by increased UV, the carbon cycle and climate change. Their novel modelling shows an alternative future of a planet where the use of CFCs continued to grow by around three per cent a year. Their modelling reveals: · Continued growth in CFCs would have led to a worldwide collapse in the ozone layer by the 2040s. · By 2100 there would have been 60 per cent less ozone above the tropics. This depletion above the tropics would have been worse than was ever observed in the hole that formed above the Antarctic. · By 2050 the strength of the UV from the sun in the mid-latitudes, which includes most of Europe including the UK, the United States and central Asia, would be stronger than the present day tropics. The depleted ozone layer would have seen the planet, and its vegetation, exposed to far more of the sun’s UV.

Plants absorb carbon dioxide (CO2) through photosynthesis and studies have shown that large increases in UV can restrict plant growth, damaging their tissues, and impairing their ability to undertake photosynthesis. This means the plants absorb less carbon. Less carbon in vegetation also results in less carbon becoming locked into soils, which is what happens to a lot of plant matter after it dies. All of this would have happened on a global scale. The researchers’ models show that in a world without the Montreal Protocol the amount of carbon absorbed by plants, trees and soils dramatically plummets over this century. With less carbon in plants and soils, more of it remains in the atmosphere as CO2. Overall, by the end of this century without the Montreal Protocol CFC ban:

There would have been 580 billion tonnes less carbon stored in forests, other vegetation and soils. · There would be an additional 165-215 parts per million of CO2 in the atmosphere, depending on the future scenario of fossil fuel emissions. Compared to today’s 420 parts per million CO2, this is an additional 40-50%. · The huge amount of additional CO2 would have contributed to an additional 0.8°C of warming through its greenhouse effect.

Ozone depleting substances, such as CFCs, are also potent greenhouse gases and previous research has shown that their ban prevented their contribution to global warming through their greenhouse effect. By the end of this century, their greenhouse effect alone would have contributed an additional 1.7°C global warming. This is in addition to the newly quantified 0.8°C warming, coming from the extra CO2 that would have resulted from damaged vegetation, meaning that temperatures would have risen 2.5°C overall. Dr Paul Young, lead author from Lancaster University, said: “Our new modelling tools have allowed us to investigate the scorched Earth that could have resulted without the Montreal Protocol’s ban on ozone depleting substances.

A world where these chemicals increased and continued to strip away at our protective ozone layer would have been catastrophic for human health, but also for vegetation. The increased UV would have massively stunted the ability of plants to soak up carbon from the atmosphere, meaning higher CO2 levels and more global warming. With our research, we can see that the Montreal Protocol’s successes extend beyond protecting humanity from increased UV to protecting the ability of plants and trees to absorb CO2. Although we can hope that we never would have reached the catastrophic world as we simulated, it does remind us of the importance of continuing to protect the ozone layer. Entirely conceivable threats to it still exist, such as from unregulated use of CFCs.”The planet has already seen 1°C warming from pre-industrial temperatures. Even if we had somehow managed to get to net zero CO2 emissions, the additional 2.5°C rise would take us to a rise of 3.5°C. This is far in excess of the 1.5°C rise above pre-industrial levels that many scientists see as the most global temperatures can rise in order to avoid some of the most damaging effects of climate change.

Dr Chris Huntingford of the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology said: “This analysis reveals a remarkable linkage, via the carbon cycle, between the two global environmental concerns of damage to the ozone layer and global warming.”

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-03737-3

PART-2: CRITICAL COMMENTARY

WHAT THE LANCASTER UNIVERSITY SCIENTISTS HAVE FOUND IS THAT THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL ACTION AGAINST OZONE DEPLETION HAS PAID RICH DIVIDENDS FOR THE CLIMATE CHANGE CRISIS THAT FOLLOWED THE OZONE CRISIS. SPECIFICALLY THESE SCIENTISTS HAVE DETERMINED THAT SINCE CFC IS A STRONG GREENHOUSE GAS, THE ELIMINATION OF CFC EMISSIONS MADE POSSIBLE BY THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL TO STOP OZONE DEPLETION LEFT A SURPRISE GIFT FOR THE CLIMATE CRISIS. THE REDUCTION IN THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT DUE TO LESS CFC IN THE ATMOSPHERE IS A GIFT TO THE CLIMATE CRISIS FROM MONTREAL PROTOCOL BAN ON CFC. WITHOUT THIS GIFT, THE 100-YEAR WARMING FORECAST FOR CLIMATE CHANGE WOULD HAVE BEEN 1.7C HIGHER. IN OTHER WORDS, THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL HAS REDUCED THE RATE OF WARMING IN ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMNG BY 0.017C PER YEAR.

Saving the Ozone Layer - Celebrating 30 Years of the Montreal Protocol -  United States Department of State

CRITICAL COMMENTRY:

IT IS HEARTENING TO KNOW THAT THE COSTLY MONTREAL PROTOCOL LEFT US SOME BENEFIT IN THE CLIMATE CRISIS BECAUSE THERE IS NO EVIDENCE THAT IT HAD PROVIDED ANY BENEFIT IN THE OZONE DEPLETION CRISIS. SPECIFICALLY, WE FIND THAT

The overall structure of changes in total column ozone in time and across latitudes shows that the data from the two stations in Antarctica prior to 1985 are unique and specific to that time and place. They cannot be generalized into a global pattern of ozone depletion. Here we show that declining levels of total column ozone in Antarctica during the months of October and November prior to 1985 do not serve as empirical evidence that can be taken as validation of the Rowland-Molina theory of chemical ozone depletion. The chemical theory implies that ozone depletion must be assessed across the full range of latitudes and over a much longer time span than what is found in Farman etal 1985 which serves as the sole basis for the ozone depletion hypothesis that led to the Montreal Protocol and the ascendance of the UN as a global environmental authority. The concern about ozone depletion is derived from the finding by Farman et al in 1985 that ozone levels at HLB fell by 6DU per year from the 1957-1973 average to the 1980-1984 average. The data presented HERE show that ozone depletion rates of 6DU/year and higher are seen only at the South Pole. Outside of the South Pole the mean ozone depletion rate is close to zero with an uncertainty range of +/- 1DU per year, a range perhaps indicative of random natural variability. It is therefore not likely that the HLB data reported by Farman et al can be generalized globally. Yet, it served as the sole basis of validating the Rowland Molina theory of ozone depletion. This event then gave rise to the ozone depletion alarm that in turn led to a global environmental role of the UN and the Montreal Protocol, and eventually an assumed authority of the UN over global environmentalism and the climate change alarmism of our time. THE STORY OF THE OZONE DEPLETION CRISIS AND ITS APPARENT MONTREAL PROTOCOL SUCCESS IS A CASE OF CLAIMING A NON-EXISTENT PROBEM AND THEN, AT THE APPROPRIATE TIME, SIMPLY DECLARING IT SOLVED.

DETAILS IN THE RELATED POST ON OZONE DEPLETION : LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/03/31/list-of-posts-on-ozone-depletion/

IN THE RELATED POST ON OZONE DEPLETION WE ALSO PROVIDE EMPIRICAL OF THE ABSENCE OF LONG TERM TRENDS IN GLOBAL MEAN TOTAL COLUUMN OZONE IN THE STUDY PERIOD 1966-2015 AS SUMMARIZED BELOW.

(POST#8): EMPIRICAL TEST OF OZONE DEPLETION WITH GROUND STATION DATA PART 2

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/10/01/ozone-depletion-part-3/

THIS IS A STUDY OF TRENDS IN GLOBAL MEAN TOTAL COLUMN OZONE WITH GROUND STATION DATA IN THE STUDY PERIOD 1966-2015

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is image-2.png

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS: The overall structure of changes in total column ozone levels over a 50-year sample period from 1966 to 2015 and across a range of latitudes from -90o to +71o shows that the data from Antarctica prior to 1990 represent a peculiar outlier condition specific to that time and place and not an enduring global pattern. The finding is inconsistent with the usual assumption that the Farman etal 1985 paper on a South Pole ozone event serves as empirical evidence for the Rowland-Molina theory of global chemical ozone depletionThe concern about ozone depletion is derived from the finding by Farman et al in 1985 that ozone levels at HLB fell at a rate of 6DU per year from the 1957-1973 average to the 1980-1984 average. The data presented below show that ozone depletion rates of 6DU/year and higher are seen only at the South Pole. Outside of the South Pole the mean ozone depletion rate is close to zero with an uncertainty range of +/- 1DU per year, a range perhaps indicative of random natural variability. It is therefore not likely that the HLB data reported by Farman et al can be generalized globally. Yet this extreme localized event was used to raise a global ozone depletion alarm that led to the involvement of the UN and the Montreal Protocol; and eventually an assumed authority of the UN over global environmentalism and the climate change alarmism of our time. Here we use ozone data from ground stations to carry out an empirical test of the RMTOD. Total column ozone (TCO) measurements made with Dobson spectrophotometers at twelve ground stations are used in this study. The stations are selected to represent a large range of latitudes with the latitudes classified into five groups as (1) high southern latitudes (90S to 60S), (2) mid- southern latitudes (60S to 30S), (3) Tropical (30S to 30N), (4) mid- northern latitudes (30N to 60N), and (5) high northern latitudes (60N to 90north). The data are provided by the NOAA and the BAS (British Antarctic Survey). As in Farman etal 1985, the ozone data are studied as five year (Lustrum) averages and not as annual data to smooth out data availability differences. These period definitions are not precise for the first and last Lustra. The first Lustrum is longer than five years for some stations and shorter than five years for others. The last Lustrum is imprecise because of the variability in the last month of data availability. The calendar month sequence is arranged from September to August in the tables and charts presented to maintain seasonal integrity. The seasons are roughly defined as follows: September-November (northern autumn and southern spring), December-February (northern winter and southern summer), March-May (northern spring and southern autumn), and June-August (northern summer and southern winter). Daily and intraday ozone data are averaged into monthly means for each period. These monthly means are then used to study trends across the ten Lustra for each calendar month and also to examine the average seasonal cycle for each Lustrum. Trends in mean monthly ozone and seasonal cycles are compared to examine the differences among latitudes. These patterns are then used to compare and evaluate the chemical and transport theories for changes in atmospheric ozone. The chemical explanation of these changes rests on the destruction of ozone by chlorine atoms derived from HHC (Molina, 1974) while the transport theory describes them in terms of the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) and polar vortices that transport ozone from the tropics where they are formed to the greater latitudes where they are more stable (Kozubek, 2012) (Butchart, 2014) (Tegtmeier, 2008) (Weber, 2011).

CONCLUSIONThe concern about ozone depletion is derived from the finding by Farman et al in 1985 that ozone levels at HLB fell by 6DU per year from the 1957-1973 average to the 1980-1984 average. The data presented below show that ozone depletion rates of 6DU/year and higher are seen only at the South Pole. Outside of the South Pole the mean ozone depletion rate is close to zero with an uncertainty range of +/- 1DU per year, a range perhaps indicative of random natural variability. It is therefore not likely that the HLB data reported by Farman et al can be generalized globally. Yet, it served as the sole basis of validating the Rowland Molina theory of ozone depletion. This event then gave rise to the ozone depletion alarm that in turn led to a global environmental role of the UN and the Montreal Protocol, and eventually an assumed authority of the UN over global environmentalism and the climate change alarmism of our time.

Montreal Protocol... - วิศวกรรมสิ่งแวดล้อม ม.เอเชียอาคเนย์ | Facebook

(POST#9): EMPIRICAL TEST OF OZONE DEPLETION WITH SATELLITE DATA

SUMMARY: Satellite based total ozone gridded data from the TOMS instrument (1979-1992) and the OMI instrument (2005-2015) are used to estimate latitudinally weighted global mean ozone levels. The global mean ozone values are found to have a regular seasonal cycle for daily data and irregular seasonal cycles for monthly mean data. The monthly mean data are examined for trends with OLS regression. In both datasets, statistically significant but practically insignificant trends are found that are contradictory. The older TOMS data show a depletion of mean monthly global ozone at a rate of 0.65 DU3 per year. The newer and possibly more reliable OMI data show an accretion of mean monthly global ozone at a rate of 0.5 DU per year. According to the chemical theory of ozone depletion subsumed by the UNEP and the Montreal Protocol, both of the sample periods tested lie within a regime of continuous destruction of total ozone on a global scale by long lived anthropogenic chemical agents. The weak and contradictory OLS trends found in this study cannot be explained in terms of this theory. The OLS assumption of independence is investigated with Rescaled Range analysis. It is found that the deseasonalized and detrended standardized residuals of daily mean global ozone levels in the OMI dataset 2005-2015 contain a high value of the Hurst exponent indicative of dependence, persistence, and long term memory. 

POLICY IMPLICATION: THE APPARENT MONTREAL PROTOCOL SUCCESS THAT VAULTED THE UNITED NATIONS INTO A GLOBAL ROLE IN CLIMATE CHANGE HAS NO SUPPORTING EVIDENCE. IT SHOULD ALSO BE MENTIONED THAT THERE IS NO ROLE FOR THE OZONE HOLE IN THE ROWLAND MOLINA THEORY OF OZONE DEPLETION. THE OZONE HOLE IS A LOCALIZED EVENT. THE ROWLAND MOLINA THEORY OF OZONE DEPLETION RELATES ONLY TO LONG TERM TRENDS IN GLOBAL MEAN OZONE LEVELNO SUCH TREND HAS EVER BEEN PRESENTED AS EVIDENCE PROBABLY BECAUSE NO SUCH TREND IS FOUND IN THE DATA. THE OZONE DEPLETION CRISIS AND ITS MONTREAL PROTOCOL SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE AN IMAGINED CRISIS THAT WAS SIMPLY DECLARED TO HAVE BEEN SOLVED.

FOR DETAILS PLEASE VISIT THE POST ON OZONE DEPLETION LINKED BELOW.

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/03/31/list-of-posts-on-ozone-depletion/

The science checklist applied: CFCs and the destruction of the ozone layer
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