PART-1: TRANSCRIPT OF THE FIRST 9 MINUTES OF THE VIDEO

NOVEMBER 2020: WELL, WE FACE A VERY SERIOUS DILEMMA. A STARK, CRUEL, DILEMMA. ON THE ONE HAND THERE IS A SEVERE DIRE CRISIS. DEALNG WITH IT CANNOT BE DELAYED. IT’S THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE THAT HAS ARISEN IN HUMAN HISTORY. THIS GENERATION, IN FACT TODAY’S LEADERS AND PEOPLE WILL MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHETHER ORGANIZED HUMAN SOCIETY CAN SURVIVE IN ANY DECENT LIVABLE FORM. THE DECENT EXISTENCE OF FUTURE GENERATIONS IS VERY MUCH AT STAKE.

WE ARE FACING A VERY SERIOUS CRISIS, THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ONE THAT HAS ARISEN IN HUMAN HISTORY. THE DECENT EXISTENCE OF FUTURE GENERATIONS IS VERY MUCH AT STAKE AND WE HAVE THE RESPONSIBILITY OF DETERMINING WHETHER THEY WILL HAVE A LIVEABLE EXISTENCE OR NOT. IT’S AS SERIOUS AS THAT. THERE ARE WAYS TO ADDRESS THE PROBLEM. WE HAVE TO THINK ABOUT THEM CAREFULLY, WORK OUT THE PROPER WAYS OF DEALING WITH THEM, ACT DECISIVELY, ENERGECTICALLY, AND URGENTLY TO ADDRESS THIS IMPENDING DRAMATIC CRISIS. THAT’S ONE HORN OF THE DILEMMA.

THE OTHER HORN OF THE DILEMMA IS THAT WE HAVE TO FACE THE REALITY OF THE WORLD. WE HAVE TO FIND WAYS OF REACTING THAT ARE NOT ONLY JUSTIFIED BUT ARE ALSO FEASIBLE AND EFFECTIVE. SO FOR EXAMPLE IT WOULD BE ENTIRELY JUSTIIFIED TO SEND THE POST POWERFUL PERSON OF THE WORLD, THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES TO THE HAGUE FOR SEVERE CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY AND MANY LESSER FIGURES AS WELL. THAT WOULD BE JUSTIFIED. IT’S NOT FEASIBLE AND IT’S NOT EFFECTIVE TO DEAL WITH, TO CHOOSE, A PERCHES?? THAT IS FEASIBLE AND EFFECTIVE. WE HAVE TO RECOGNIZE THE REALITY OF THE SITUATION WE FACE AND ADJUST OUR PERCHES?? ACCORDINGLY.

SO WHEN THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES SAYS “I DON’T BELIEVE IT”, THAT THERE ARE HIGHLY INTELLIGENT PEOPLE LIKE MYSELF WHO ARE NOT BELIEVERS, THAT HAS AN IMPACT ON MUCH OF THE POPULATION ESPECIALLY SO WHEN IT IS ECHOED BY THE PEOPLE IN THE NEXT LOWER LEVEL. SO FOR EXAMPLE, IF YOU LOOK AT THE REPUBLICAN PARTY PRIMARIES IN 2016, EVERY SINGLE CANDIDATE EITHER DENIED THAT GLOBAL WARMING IS TAKING PLACE OR SAID MAYBE IT IS BUT WE SHOULDN’T DO ANYTHING ABOUT IT – WHICH MORALLY SPEAKING IS MUCH WORSE. THEY WERE INCIDENTALLY PRAISED AS THE ADULTS IN THE ROOM.

WE COULD GO ON TO CORPORATE NEGLIGENCE. I AM SURE THAT THE CEO OF JP MORGAN CHASE JAMES DIMON IS WELL AWARE OF THE EFFECT OF USING FOSSIL FUELS. SO HOW IS HE DECIDING TO REACT TO THAT? BY INCREASING INVESTMENT IN FOSSIL FUELS.

WE KNOW VERY WELL ABOUT THE BEHAVIOR OF THE MAJOR FOSSIL FUEL COMPANIES OVER THE PAST 40 OR 50 YEARS. IT IS NOW WELL KNOWN THAT THEIR SCIENTISTS, THE EXXON MOBIL SCIENTISTS, WERE IN THE LEAD IN DISCOVERING THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE THREAT OF CATASTROPHIC ENVIRONMENTAL GLOBAL CHANGE AND THEY WERE PRESENTING PAPER AFTER PAPER OF THEIR OWN WITH MANAGERS AND EXECUTIVES EXPLAINING THE NATURE OF THE THREAT. AND WHEN JAMES HANSEN 1988 MADE HIS FAMOUS SPEECH WARNING THE WORLD OF THE THREAT THAT WE ARE FACING, EXXON MOBIL MANAGEMENT REACTED MAINLY BY SHIFTING TO FUNDING OF DENIALISM AND SKEPTICISM AND INCREASING THEIR USE OF FOSSIL FUELS.

WHEN THE NEW YORK TIMES A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO PUBLISHED A LONG FRONT PAGE THOUSAND WORD ARTICLE ON HOW PRESIDENT TRUMP IS OPENING UP VAST NEW OILFIELDS IN THE WEST OF THE UNITED STATES FOR OIL EXPLORATION OR FRACKING, THEY DO TALK A LITTLE ABOUT THE ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS THAT MIGHT HARM THE INTERESTS OF RANCHERS WHO WANT TO USE THOSE LANDS, LITERALLY ONE PHRASE IN A THOUSAND WORDS, SAYING THAT BY DROPPING RESTRICTIONS ON METHANE, IT MAY LEAD TO A VERY DANGEROUS GAS ESCAPING INTO THE ENVIRONMENT. THAT WAS JUST ONE PHRASE IN A THOUSAND WORDS.

AND ALL OF THIS HAS AN EFFECT ON THE POPULATION. PEOPLE LISTEN. THEY SEE THAT THAT NOBODY SEEMS TO BE TAKING IT SERIOUSLY. WE SEE THE RESULTS IN POLLS. AND HALF OF REPUBLICANS LITERALLY DENY THAT GLOBAL WARMING IS TAKING PLACE! THAT INCLUDES PEOPLE WHOSE LIVELYHOODS ARE BEING DESTROYED BY LONG DROUGHTS THAT ARE WIPING OUT THEIR SOURCES OF FISH, OF FOOD, AND SO ON, SAYING “NO IT’S NOT HAPPENING”. THAT’S HALF OF THE REPUBLICANS. OF THE OTHER HALF, BARELY HALF SAY HUMANS MAY BE RESPONSIBLE. AFTER ALL, IF THE MAN IN CHARGE SAYS THAT HIGHLY INTELLIGENT PEOPLE LIKE ME DON’T BELIEVE IT WHO AM I TO QUESTION IT? THESE ARE SOME OF THE REALITIES WE HAVE TO FACE.

WE ALSO HAVE TO RECOGNIZE THAT THE APPROACH IS NOT EFFECTIVE. THE EFFECTIVE APPROACH IS NOT SIMPLY TO SAY “LOOK THERE IS A DIRE EMERGENCY AND YOU HAVE TO CHANGE EVERYTHING YOU DO”. IT’S NOT GOING TO WORK. WHAT HAS TO BE DONE IS TO APPROACH PEOPLE EXPLAINING THAT THE SITUATION IS SERIOUS, IS LIKELY TO BE CATASTROPHIC UNLESS WE DO SOMETHING, AND THEN GO ON TO SHOW, WHEN IN FACT IT IS TRUE, THAT EFFORTS TO DEAL WITH IT WHILE IT IS STILL WITHIN RANGE WILL IN FACT MAKE LIFE BETTER. EFFORTS TO DEAL WITH IT WILL NOT DESTROY YOUR LIFE. AND WE’D BE MUCH BETTER OFF LIVING IN A GREEN ECONOMY. AND YOU’D BE MUCH BETTER OFF NOT SPENDING 3 HOURS A DAY FIGHTING TRAFFIC JAMS IF YOU HAVE AN EFFICIENT MASS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM. YOU’D BE BETTER OFF IF YOU DIDN’T HAVE TO TAKE YOUR KIDS TO THE DOCTOR BECAUSE THEY ARE SUFFERING FROM ASTHMA BECAUSE THEY CAN’T BREATHE THE AIR. IF WE HAD POTABLE WATER, YES THINGS WOULD BE BETTER IF WE HAD AN ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH PEOPLE COULD SURVIVE AND LIVE DECENT LIVES, IT WOULD BE BETTER AND IT IS WITHIN REACH. THERE ARE THINGS WE CAN DO, THERE ARE THINGS THAT ARE BEING DONE.

PRESENTED ABOVE ARE THE FIRST 9 MINUTES OF THE LECTURE THAT GOES ON FOR 15 MORE MINUTES.

PART-2: CRITICAL COMMENTARY

AFTER HIS LONG AND RAMBLING ANTI-TRUMP, ANTI-REPUBLICAN, ANTI-BUSINESS, ANTI EXXON, AND ANTI CLIMATE DENIALISM RANT, THE WISE OLD MAN RETREATS TO THE PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE THAT SAYS IN EFFECT, THAT WE SHOULD NOT ARGUE ABOUT WHETHER THE CATASTROPHE HYPOTHESIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IS TRUE BUT WHETHER WE CAN TAKE THE CHANCE THAT IT IS TRUE. AND THEN HE ADDS HIS STRANGE WISDOM ABOUT AIR QUALITY AND ENVIRONMENTALISM THAT MISINTERPRETS THE CLIMATE SCIENCE CASE AGAINST FOSSIL FUELS.

RELATED POST: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/03/30/the-humans-must-save-the-planet/

FOSSIL FUELS WERE ONCE AN ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUE THAT IN FACT CREATED THE EPA TO SOLVE THESE ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES FROM SMOG TO ACID RAIN. THE EPA HAS IN FACT SOLVED THESE ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES.

THE USE OF FOSSIL FUELS TODAY IS NOT AN ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUE. IN FACT IT WAS THIS ABSENCE OF AN ENVIRONMENTAL CASE AGAINST FOSSIL FUELS THAT MADE IT NECESSARY FOR ANTI FOSSIL FUEL ACTIVISTS TO INVENT THEIR NEW IMPROVED CASE AGAINST FOSSIL FUELS IN TERMS OF CATASTROPHIC CLIMATE CHANGE.

THE CLIMATE CASE AGAINST FOSSIL FUELS WAS NECESSARY PRECISELY BECAUSE THESE ACTIVISTS NO LONGER HAD AN ENVIRONMENTAL CASE AGAINST FOSSIL FUELS. THE WISE OLD MAN’S RESPONSE TO TRUMP AND CLIMATE DENIAL ALSO MAKES THE FALSE ASSUMPTION THAT CLIMATE ACTION IS COSTLESS SO THAT GIVEN A CHOICE BETWEEN CLIMATE ACTION AND NO CLIMATE ACTION, THE BETTER CHOICE IS CLIMATE ACTION AND CLEANER AIR AND BETTER HEALTH FOR THE CHILDREN. IT IS CLEAR IN THIS LECTURE THAT THE WISE OLD MAN LECTURING TRUMP AND CLIMATE DENIERS ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE ACTION DOES NOT UNDERSTAND THE ISSUE.

PERHAPS AT HIS AGE OF 92 IT WOULD BE UNFAIR TO EXPECT HIM TO PROVIDE MORE INFORMED OR A MORE RATIONAL ANALYSIS. THE PURELY EMOTIONAL RANT AGAINST TRUMP, AGAINST REPUBLICANS, AGAINST EXXON, AND AGAINST CLIMATE DENIERS IS PERHAPS BEST UNDERSTOOD IN THIS CONTEXT.

CLEARLY THIS WISE OLD MAN WHO ALSO LECTURES ON THE ANTHROPOCENE IS BEING USED BY INTERESTED PARTIES SIMPLY BECAUSE HE IS WIDELY RESPECTED AS A WISE OLD MAN AND WIDELY RESPECTED FOR HIS WISDOM. KIND OF LIKE THE OTHER WISE OLD MAN SIR DAVID WHATSHISNAME. THIS IS THE REAL STARK CRUEL DILEMMA IN THIS VIDEO.

IT IS NOTEWORTHY THAT THE WISE OLD MAN WHO KNOWS THE SCIENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND WHO DECIDED TO DO A VIDEO TO CASTIGATE THOSE WHO DON’T, IS APPARENTLY UNAWARE OF OR UNWILLING TO DISCUSS THE VEXING UNRESOLVED ISSUES IN CLIMATE SCIENCE LISTED BELOW.

VEXING UNRESOLVED ISSUE#1: DATA SELECTION BIAS: SCIENTISTS WHO CLAIM TO UNDERSTAND THE THE TEMPERATURE CYCLES OF INTERGLACIALS AT CENTENNIAL AND MILLENNIAL TIME SCALES HAVE SELECTED ONLY THE POST INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION TEMPERATURE CYCLE TO EXPLAIN AS A CAUSE AND EFFECT PHENOMENON CLAIMED TO BE CREATED BY THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION.

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/05/12/human-cause-in-the-anthropocene/

VEXING UNRESOLVED ISSUE#2: THE METHODOLOGICAL FLAWS IN EXTREME WEATHER ATTRIBUTION:

LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/06/07/extreme-weather-attribution/

LINK: #2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/07/13/a-comment-from-ralph-alexander/

VEXING UNRESOLVED ISSUE#3: STATISTICAL ERRORS IN CLIMATE SCIENCE FACILITATE THE DESIRED RESULTS.

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/05/18/climate-science-vs-statistics/

VEXING UNRESOLVED ISSUE#4: MISINTERPRETATION OF UNCERTAINTY TO FACILITATE THE DESIRED RESULTS.

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/04/22/climate-science-uncertainty/

THOMAS SAYRE ON QUORA PROVIDES THIS INSIGHT INTO THE CLIMATE GAME

“We know they are lying, they know they are lying, they know we know they are lying, we know they know we know they are lying, but they are sill lying.” – Aleksandr Isayevich Solzhenitsyn. “The rules are simple: they lie to us, we know they’re lying, they know we know they’re lying, but they keep lying to us, and we keep pretending to believe them.” – Elena Gorokhova, A Mountain of Crumbs, on the Soviet government. Leftists make sure they are in charge of the mechanisms of law enforcement before becoming this bold in their looting, for the same reason Democrats had such confidence in riding out as KKK to lynch Republicans. No charges – because they controlled the law. If there were any justice, though, tar and feathers. Yep. And not waiting for the next election. You don’t ask the criminal’s permission to stop them from looting.