Thongchai Thailand

GLOBAL WARMING HIATUS?

Posted on: July 8, 2021

Global Surface Cooling Expected To Continue…Forecasters See Another La Nina In The Pipeline
By P Gosselin on 7. July 2021. Not long ago Dr. Roy Spencer published Version 6 University of Alabama-Huntsville satellite-based global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for June, 2021. It was -0.01 deg. C, down an impressive 0.7°C since the peak in early 2016. As Dr. Spencer’s chart above shows, temperatures are back within the range seen 20 years ago. The question many of us have is what are global mean surface temperatures going to do over the coming year or so? We know that the mean global temperature is driven in large part by the oceanic surface temperature cycles, especially the ENSO. Two years of below neutral Nino 3.4 SST. Forecasting the ENSO can thus help us project what the global mean surface temperature will be like a year ahead. Normally there’s a lag of about 8 months. Looking at the latest NCEP CFSv2 ENSO 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies and the ensemble mean forecast.

ON A WELL KNOWN CLIMATE BLOG WE FIND THE CHART ABOVE OF UAH TEMPERATURES 1979 TO 2021 ALONG WITH 1 13-MONTH MOVING AVERAGE IN RED. IT IS CLAIMED THAT WHAT THE CHART SHOWS IS THAT IN JUNE 2021 BOTH THE TEMPERATURE AND THE 13 MONTH MOVING AVERAGE TEMPERATURE HAD DROPPED AND THAT THEREFORE GLOBAL WARMING HAS FLIPPED INTO GLOBAL COOLING OR PERHAPS A HIATUS POSSIBLY DRIVEN BY THE ENSO CYCLE.

CRITICAL COMMENTARY

IN A RELATED POST: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/01/11/global-warming-dec2020/ we show that long term warming trends are composed of decadal warming rates that show large variability between warming and cooling. Sample chart below for global mean temperature.

IN ANOTHER RELATED POST: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/07/16/the-internal-variability-issue/ we show that the theory of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) refers only to long term trends of 30 years or more and that temperature and climate variability at shorter time scales should be understood as “internal climate variability” and these may not be interpreted in terms of AGW.

climate internal variability is just residual variance from ...
Reconstructed annual series of internal climate variability modes ...

IN VIEW OF THE DATA PRESENTED IN THE TWO RELATED POSTS, WE PROPOSE THAT THE OBSERVED VARIABILITY IN THE RUNNING 13 MONTH AVERAGE TEMPERATURE DOES NOT HAVE AN AGW INTERPRETATION.

1 Response to "GLOBAL WARMING HIATUS?"

When did Global Cooling start?
When did the continent wide ice sheets covering North America, Europe and Siberia begin to be “starved” of precipitation?

When Global Cooling started there was less water vapor.

Less water vapor meant less precipitation.

Less precipitation meant more melt in the summer than new precipitation in the winter.

Global Cooling started 10,000+ years ago and the evidence cannot be disputed by anyone who knows how the global thermodynamics actually work.

Those who claim were experiencing Global Warming don’t understand that the mountain glaciers and ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are shrinking because of less winter precipitation.

They also want you to believe that a molecule that’s 50% heavier than aluminum, 144% heavier than H2O and 200% heavier than air is refusing to precipitate out of the atmosphere.

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