Thongchai Thailand

CLIMATE FEAROLOGY REVISED?

Posted on: July 8, 2021

LINK TO DOOMSDAY GLACIER ARTICLE 7/8/2021: https://www.futurity.org/thwaites-glacier-ice-sheets-2584742/

WHAT THE ARTICLE SAYS

The world’s largest ice sheets may be in less danger of sudden collapse than previously predicted, according to a new study. The study in Science includes simulating the demise of West Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier, one of the world’s largest and most unstable glaciers. Researchers modeled the collapse of various heights of ice cliffs—near-vertical formations that occur where glaciers and ice shelves meet the ocean. They found that instability doesn’t always lead to rapid disintegration. Over long timescales, ice behaves like a viscous fluid, sort of like a pancake spreading out in a frying pan. So the ice spreads out and thins faster than it can fail and this can stabilize collapse. But if the ice can’t thin fast enough, that’s when you have the possibility of rapid glacier collapse. The researchers combined the variables of ice failure and ice flow for the first time, finding that stretching and thinning of ice, as well as buttressing from trapped chunks of ice, may moderate the effects of fracture-induced marine ice cliff instability. The new findings add nuance to a previous theory called marine ice cliff instability, which suggests that if the height of an ice cliff reaches a certain threshold, it can suddenly disintegrate under its own weight in a chain reaction of ice fractures.The Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica, nicknamed the “Doomsday Glacier” by climate science, is moving closer to this threshold and could contribute nearly 3 feet to sea level rise in the event of a complete collapse. At 74,000 square miles, it’s roughly the size of Florida, and is particularly susceptible to climate and ocean changes. THE OCEAN IS ALWAYS THERE, SORT OF TICKLING THE ICE IN A VERY COMPLEX WAY, AND WE’VE ONLY KNOWN FOR A DECADE OR TWO JUST HOW IMPORTANT IT IS. Researchers also found that icebergs that crack and fall away from the main glacier. This kind of iceberg calving may actually stave off, rather than contribute to, catastrophic collapse as previously thought. If the ice chunks get stuck on outcroppings in the ocean floor, they can exert back pressure on the glacier to help stabilize it. Even if the glacier doesn’t catastrophically collapse, exposing a tall cliff could still trigger a retreat at a few kilometers per year resulting in a large contribution to future sea level rise.COMPLETE COLLAPSE OF THWAITES GLACIER?
While it’s clear that Thwaites and other glaciers are melting, the speed of their demise is of keen interest to coastal areas as they develop strategies to adapt and build resilience. But predicting the retreat of glaciers is a mind-bendingly complex business, as they’re affected by the interplay of myriad factors—the stress and strain of billions of tons of shifting ice, changing air and water temperatures, and the effects of flowing liquid water on ice, to name just a few. As a result, the predictions for the collapse of the Thwaites Glacier range from a few decades to many centuries. The new study is an important step toward producing accurate, actionable predictions. There’s no doubt that sea levels are rising, and that it’s going to continue in the coming decades but this study offers hope that we’re not approaching a complete collapse—that there are measures that can mitigate and stabilize things. And we still have the opportunity to change things by making decisions about things like energy emissions—methane and CO2.

Weakness in doomsday glacier the size of BRITAIN could send sea levels  soaring by two feet

A SMALL SAMPLE OF THE THE DOOMSDAY GLACIER DOOMOLOGY IN THE NEWS FOR DECADES

(1): The Doomsday Glacier: In the farthest reaches of Antarctica, a nightmare scenario of crumbling ice – and rapidly rising seas – could spell disaster for a warming planet. By JEFF GOODELL

(2): Antarctica’s ‘Doomsday Glacier’ close to tipping point, unmanned sub reveals. The glacier could be melting at the key points anchoring it to the land. By Ben Turner – Staff Writer April 15, 2021, LIVESCIENCE.

(3): Antarctic ‘doomsday glacier’ may be melting faster than previously thought. THE GUARDIAN. Apr 30, 2564 BE — The fate of Thwaites – nicknamed the doomsday glacier – and the massive west Antarctic ice sheet it supports are the biggest unknown factors for catastrophic sea level rise.

(4): Why Scientists Are So Worried About Antarctica’s Doomsday …https://www.discovermagazine.com › environment › w…Nov 13, 2563 BE — Glaciers everywhere might be melting, but only one has earned the most terrifying nickname: the Doomsday Glacier.

(5): Thwaites: ‘Doomsday Glacier’ vulnerability seen in new maps …https://www.bbc.com › science-environment-54079587. Sep 9, 2563 BE — Thwaites: ‘Doomsday Glacier’ vulnerability seen in new maps · Scientists may just have identified Thwaites Glacier’s Achilles heel. · This Antarctic ..

(6): Explained: Why have new findings about Antarctica’s ‘Doomsday Glacier’ caused worry?
The Gothenburg study used an uncrewed submarine to go under the Thwaites glacier front to make observations. By: Explained Desk | New Delhi Updated: April 15, 2021 9:19:17 am

(7): ITGC Thwaites Glacierhttps://thwaitesglacier.org. UK and US scientists are collaborating to investigate one of the most unstable glaciers in Antarctica, the Thwaites Glacier, roughly the same size as Florida or ..

(8): Thwaites: ‘Doomsday Glacier’ vulnerability seen in new maps …https://www.bbc.com › science-environment-54079587. Sep 9, 2563 BE — Thwaites: ‘Doomsday Glacier’ vulnerability seen in new maps · Scientists may just have identified Thwaites Glacier’s Achilles heel. · This Antarctic .

(9): Antarctic ‘doomsday glacier’ may be melting faster than was …https://www.theguardian.com › environment › apr › ant…Apr 30, 2564 BE — The worst-case scenarios for Thwaites are grim. It is the widest glacier on the planet, more than 1km deep and holds enough ice to raise the sea …

(10): If Thwaites Glacier collapses, it would change global … – PRI.orghttps://interactive.pri.org › 2019/05 › antarctica › thwaites… This big blowout confirmed that there’s very little actual ice shelf left in the western part of Thwaites Glacier. Instead, much of the ice there is …Jul 1, 2562 BE

(11): Thwaites Glacier Transformed – NASA Earth Observatoryhttps://earthobservatory.nasa.gov › images › thwaites-gl…
Feb 5, 2563 BE — Indeed, Thwaites Glacier is one of the largest contributors to global sea level rise from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The flow speed of Thwaites …

(12): Antarctica’s Doomsday Glacier: How Doomed Are We …https://www.rollingstone.com › politics › politics-features
Our world is heating up fast. And as every kid knows, on hot days, ice melts. The question is how quickly. At Thwaites, the melting is mostly a …May 12, 2564 BE

(13): Massive “Doomsday Glacier” May Be More Stable Than …https://scitechdaily.com › massive-doomsday-glacier-m…
Jun 19, 2564 BE — The Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica—sometimes referred to as the “Doomsday Glacier”—is moving closer to this threshold and could contribute …

(14): Why Scientists Are So Worried About Antarctica’s Doomsday …https://www.discovermagazine.com › environment › w… Nov 13, 2563 BE — Officially called the Thwaites Glacier, this mass of ice nestled into the western edge of Antarctica is melting at an alarming rate. A look at maps …

RELATED POSTS ON ANTARCTICA ICE SHEET COLLAPSE AND SEA LEVEL RISE ALARMS OF CLIMATE SCIENCE

RELATED POST#1: THE EEMAIN INTERGLACIAL: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/12/21/eemian/ We explain in this post that the failed obsession of climate science with catastrophic ice melt in Antarctica and the catastrophic sea level rise of many meters as AGW impacts is derived not from the data in the current warming cycle of the Holocene but from what had happened in the Eemian interglacial where the intiail warm period of the interglacial, about 5C warmer than any temperature seen in the Holocene, had caused a complete collapse of the WAIS (west antarctic ice sheet) and a relatively sudden and catastrophic sea level rise of several meters. That event in the Eemian had convinced climate scientists that it would be repeated in the current warm period and that therefore the projected horror of the many meters of sea level rise would serve as motivation for climate action. As a footnote, the global warming activism of climate science is best understood not as activism against warming but as activism for climate action where the projeced horrors of climate change serve only as the motivation.

RELATED POST#2: POLAR ICE THREATENED BY MAN MADE GLOBAL WARMING: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/07/climate-change-threatens-polar-ice/

Here we provide the data and the bibliography to present the case that the single minded climate science approach to polar ice dynamics in terms of fossil fueled global warming overlooks and fails to account for the known geoligkcal features of the two polar regions and the geothermal heat that these geological features imply in the form of sub-marine volcanism, mantle plumes, and hydrothermal vent activity.

RELATED POST#3 IS A STUDY OF THE OBSESSION OF CLIMATE SCIENCE WITH THE THWAITES GLACIER THAT HAS THUS BEEN RENAMED AS THE DOOMSDAY GLACIER WITH THE FORECAST THAT A COMPLETE COLLAPSE OF THE THWAITES WILL DEVASTATE FLORIDA WITH SEA LEVEL RISE. LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/02/09/antarctica-threatens-florida/

Here we show that the geological features of West Antarctica in terms of the West Antarctic Rift, the Marie Byrd Mantle Plume, and evidence of active volcanism underneath the Thwaites Glacier provide evidence that the role of geothermal heat in the evaluation of the ice melt dynamics of the Thwaites Glacier cannot be ignored. The geothermal heat flux data and their analysis in terms of the Thwaites glacier dynamics in the literature is generally supportive of that view. In consideration of the above we find it unlikely that ice melt at the bottom of the Thwaites Glacier can be understood in terms of AGW climate change as claimed in the video lecture presented.

RELATED POST#4 IS A RESPONSE TO THE CLIMATE SCIENCE CLAIMS THAT THE PINE ISLAND GLACIER IS AT A TIPPING POINT AND THAT ITS COMPLETE DISINTEGRATION AND CATASTROPHIC SEA LEVEL RISE ARE IMMINENT: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/04/04/pine-island-glacier-tipping-point/

Here we present the data and relevant analysis and citations to argue that in view the relevant geological features of West Antarctica and and active volcanoes underneath the Pine Island glacier it is not possible to understand ice melt events there as anthropogenic global warming phenomena.

RELATED POST#5: THE RELEVANT GEOLOGICAL FEATURES OF WEST ANTARCTICA: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/06/27/antarctica/

antarctica-map
ANTARCTICA02
  1.   zwally2
  2. zwallykamis03
  3. In the image below, the left frame shows the northwest extension of the West Antarctic Rift and its major fault traces in red as the fault traces continue into the ocean. Also on here are some yellow circles. Those are active volcanoes with some of them recently erupting. The larger the circle the more active the volcano. So first we’ll talk about the South Georgia Island seen in the upper right slide where you can see that in September 29, 2016 three volcanoes erupted simultaneously indicating that this is a very active portion of the rift. On the lower right slide is the May 1 2016 eruption of Mt Curry which is located in the South Sandwich Islands. This eruption emitted tremendous amounts of volcanic ash onto the surrounding glacial areas of ice that disrupted penguin migration. But the penguins adapted. They didn’t die, and I think this is kind of an interesting aspect of this eruption. kamis04The South Shetland Island. The image below shows the South Shetland Island portion of the Rift. Again, you can see the long linear string of volcanoes where there is six of them, one very large, it’s called the South Shetland Island specifically. This area contains one of the most active volcanoes in all of Antarctica. It’s called the Deception Island Collapse Caldera. A collapse caldera is a huge volcano that erupts so violently that the center of it collapses. It is often filled with fresh water but in this case because it is so close to the ocean, this huge hole is filled with sea water. Here there’s a little opening in this large caldera so that eco tourists can come in and visit it. On the right slide is the interior of the collapse caldera where the tourists are soaking in steaming hot water on black volcanic sand. The reason for the steaming hot water is that this caldera is still active. It is one of the first stops in visits to Antarctica.  kamis05
  4. The West Antarctic Rift (WAR) is shown in the image above: It consists of a number of rift valleys between East and West Antarctica. A rift valley is a long narrow deep and steep valley. The WAR includes part of Byrd area of West Antarctica. The Byrd area is the main portion of the WAR. It is studied in terms of its three geologically interesting regions. These are the Hudson Mountains & Mount Takahe volcanic regions and the Pine Island Glacial Valley. 

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