A QUORA QUESTION

Will humans take action against climate change before it is too late?

Us modern humans (homo sapiens) have been around for 200,000 years and we have gone through two glaciation-deglaciation cycles and about 20 warming and cooling cycles of interglacials. This interglacial, the Holocene, is our second interglacial. It should be noted that glaciation is not a linear and well behaved period of cooling and ice formation and deglaciation is not a linear and well behaved period of warming and ice melt but that both legs of the glaciation cycle are violent and chaotic cycles of both warming and cooling at centennial and millennial time scales. The only difference is that there is a slight edge for cooling in the glaciation phase and a slight edge for warming in the deglaciation phase. This chaotic back and forth behavior of temperature is also found in the interglacials such that, interglacials are also violent cycles of warming and cooling also at centennial and millennial time scales.

The warming cycle that we are in, what we call AGW human caused waming, is the 9th such chaotic temperature excursion of this interglacial the Holocene. Climate science says they can explain this warming cycle as human caused by way of the industrial revolution because it came after the industrial revolution but they are unable to explain the other 8 temperature excursions of the Holocene not even the extreme cooling in the 8.2k cooling cycle nor the extreme warming in the HCO warming cycle that gave rise to human civilization.

The usual argument presented by climate science to defend this extreme form of the Data Selection Bias is that the data selection bias is validated by the extreme warmth of the current warming cycle because the high temperature of the current warming cycle is hotter than anything seen in the last 2,000 years. That the current interglacial, the Holocene, is more than 8,000 years old and that the prior interglacial the Eemian was much hotter are acknowledged but ignored in the interpretation of the current warming cycle as being extreme and being preceded by the industrial revolution such that therefore (1) it must have been human caused and that (2) without climate action it will destroy us and life on earth and the planet itself.

These conclusions are inconsistent with the data for the known history of the humans that have survived two glaciation cycles, the prior interglacial, the Eemian, and the first 8 temperature cycles of the current interglacial the Holocene the most intense warming of which did not kill the planet or its humans but instead gave rise to human civilization. The climate history of the planet and the humans is inconsistent with the assesment of this warming cycle of the Holocene by climate science. In this context, climate science is best understood as anti fossil fuel activism and not as unbiased and objective scientific inquiry. They are not looking for the truth. They have already decided ex ante what the truth is. They are looking only for ways to defend it.

CONCLUSION

THE HUMAN ADVANCE FROM THE ANIMALS OF THE PALEOLITHIC ERA TO THE FARMERS OF THE NEOLITHIC ERA TO THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION OF THE MODERN ERA AND THE RAPID ADVANCE IN HUMAN TECHNOLOGY AND HUMAN POPULATION HAS CREATED (1) THE IDEA THAT WE ARE OR OUGHT TO BE IN CONTROL OF NATURE, AND (2) THE INNER FEAR THAT WE ARE NOT IN CONTROL WITH A FEAR OF THE FUTURE IN THE SENSE OF ADVANCING INTO AN ERA OF THE UNKNOWN.

THIS ODDITY IS BEST UNDERSTOOD AS A CREATION OF THE BREVITY OF OUR CIVILIZED STATE.

OF THE 200,000 YEAR HISTORY OF US MODERN HUMANS, WE WERE CANNIABALISTIC PALEOLITHIC ANIMALS FOR THE FIRST 192000 YEARS WITH HUMAN CIVILIZATION AND OUR CIVILIZED STATUS A VERY RECENT INNOVATION IN THE LAST 8,000 YEARS.

REPEAT: OUR 200,000 YEAR HISTORY CONSISTS OF 192,000 YEARS {96%} AS PALEOLITHIC ANIMALS AND THE LAST 8,000 YEARS {4%} AS THE CIVILIZED HUMANS THAT WE ARE TODAY.

IT WILL TAKE US A FEW THOUSAND YEARS TO FULLY GRASP AND MANAGE OUR NEW STATE OF EXISTENCE. IN THE MEANTIME WE ARE STILL IN AWE OF OUR NEW CIVILIZATION AND NOT SURE WHAT TO MAKE OF IT SUCH THAT OUR IMAGINATION RUNS WILD AND CREATES THINGS LIKE THE ANTHROPOCENE WITH THE HUMANS IN CHARGE OF NATURE, IN CHARGE OF THE OCEAN, IN CHARGE OF THE PLANET, AND IN CHARGE OF THE CLIMATE.

AS OUR CIVILIZED STATE MATURES WE WILL UNDERSTAND IT BETTER AND PERHAPS WE WILL BE ABLE TO SEE THINGS DIFFERENTLY.

THESE ARE THE FOUNDATIONS OF THE HUMAN VIEW OF THEIR ADVANCE FROM THE PALEOLITHIC TO THE NEOLOTHIC REVOLUTION AND THENCE TO THE INDUSTRAL REVOLUTION AND THE MODERN ERA OF TECHNOLOGY AND SPACE TRAVEL.

THESE RAPID ADVANCES OF THE ANIMALS OF THE PALEOLITHIC ERA HAVE COME AT A PACE THAT HAS CREATED THE FEAR THAT IS BEST DESCRIBED AS FEAR OF THE UNKNOWN IN THE CONTEXT OF THE EGO OF HUMANS WHO NOW SEE THEMSELVES AS THE MANAGERS AND CARETAKERS OF NATURE AND OF THE PLANET ITSELF.

THE THEORY AND THE FEAR OF CLIMATE CHANGE THAT HAS DEFINED OUR GENERATION IS BEST UNDERSTOOD IN THIS CONTEXT. IT IS A CONTEXT THAT LIKELY DERIVES FROM THE NEOLITHIC REVOLUTION AND THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION THAT CREATED THE EGO AND THE IMAGE OF A HUMAN CONTROLLED WORLD WHERE ALL OBSERVED CHANGES ARE INTERPRETED IN TERMS OF HUMAN ACTIVITY. THE THEORY THAT HAS CHOSEN ONLY THE CURRENT WARMING TREND FROM A NUMBER OF HOLOCENE WARMING TRENDS TO EXPLAIN IN TERMS OF HUMAN ACTIVITY IS BEST UNDERSTOOD IN THIS CONTEXT.

WE NOTE THAT IN THIS EVOLUTION OF CIVILIZED MODERN HUMANS, WE SPENT 192,000 YEARS (96%) AS CANNIBALISTIC PALEOLITHIC ANIMALS AND ONLY 8,000 YEARS (4%) AS THE CIVILIZED HUMANS THAT WE ARE TODAY AND SO WE ARE PERHAPS A LITTLE TOO OVERWHELMED BY IT ALL AND IT WILL TAKE US MAYBE ANOTHER THOUSAND YEARS OR SO FOR OUR CIVILIZED STATUS TO MATURE AND FOR US TO UNDERSTAND IT AND MANAGE IT IN A MORE RATIONAL WAY. IN THE MEANTIME WE WILL IMAGINE THINGS LIKE THE ANTHROPOCENE AND OUR GENESIS ROLE AS MANAGERS AND CARETAKERS OF NATURE AND OF THE PLANET, AND SURELY OF THE CLIMATE.

FOR DETAILS PLEASE SEE:

LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/05/12/human-cause-in-the-anthropocene/

LINK #2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/05/27/unnatural-humans/

SPECIFICALLY, IN THIS CONTEXT WE NOTE AS FOLLOWS:

In between glaciation periods are brief deglaciated warm periods we call Interglacials. We are currently in the Holocene Interglacial. The previous Interglacial was the Eemian. In the Eemian interglacial we see that the chaotic back and forth cyclical and chaotic progress of the glaciation phase is also seen in the interglacial phase. Thus, in the Eemian interglacial we find a similarly violent state of cyclical climate oscillation between cold and hot periods. Thus the cyclical and violent changes of warming and and cooling seen in glaciation periods are also found in Interglacials. These  changes within Interglacials also occur at centennial and millennial time scales.

Similar cycles of cooling and warming are also found in the Holocene also at centennial and millennial time scales from its violent inception in the Younger Dryas event to the present. The Younger Dryas Event (YDE) shows that as soon as the Last Glacial Period had apparently ended, a series of brief but violent cycles of glaciation and deglaciation at centennial and millennial time scales intervened. The cooling period drove temperatures in Greenland down by 15C over a period of 300 years. Following that, a strong warming trend at a centennial time scale caused a warming of 17C and it seemed that the Holocene Interglacial warmth had finally arrived but the Holocene temperature chaos was not over yet.

About 9,000 years ago a strong cooling trend set in and persisted for 800 years. It is called the 8.2K cooling event because it ended 8,200 years ago. The Holocene interglacial recovered from the 8.2K cooling event and warmed to what is called “Holocene Climate Optimum” (HCO) or the “Mid Holocene Warming” (MHW) about 7000Y ago. The significance of this warming for us humans, as detailed above, is that it is credited with the Neolithic Revolution that is thought to have created human civilization. It brought hunter gatherer humans out of the forests and caves and into a settled agricultural economy with farms and permanent homes, human society, and nation states, human innovations, and technology. 

Four other Holocene temperature events since the HCO are considered important in the climate history of the Holocene interglacial. These are the Bronze Age warm period ≈3000YBP, (also called the Minoan Warm Period (BAWP), the Roman warm period (RWP)≈2000YBP, the Medieval warm period (MWP) ≈1100YBP, and the Little Ice Age (LIA) ≈500YBP-100YBP.

The current warm period that followed the LIA is described as Anthropogenic {human caused} Global Warming (AGW) because it coincides with the Industrial Revolution when humans began to burn fossil fuels and therefore not a natural recovery from the LIA. This interpretation may derive from the other unique feature of the current warming cycle. The current temperature cycle of the Holocene is the first temperature excursion of the Holocene where we find a unique new feature of the surface of the earth called “climate scientists” armed with a world view called “environmentalism”. In this world view, everything bad is assumed to be a human impact that can and must be undone by identifying the human activity that COULD be causing the bad thing and then for humans to cease and desist from that anti nature activity. 

The key to understanding the logic of such environmentalism is the PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE which says in essence that we can’t prove we are right but you can’t take the chance that we are right. The precautionary principle is described in a related post: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/12/27/superstitious-humans/

This new world view of a human controlled planet, called the Anthropocene, implies that the warming cycles of the Holocene prior to the Anthropocene were natural but any temperature excursion in the Anthropocene must have been human caused and that therefore it is human controlled by definition and that therefore it can and must be moderated by humans to save the planet in the Anthropocene. Yet, those who profess to understand interglacial temperature cycles as cause and effect phenomena should explain all of them in that way. That they picked just one of them to explain implies a BIAS in their methodology. That kind of science suffers from a fatal methodological error in the form of DATA SELECTION BIAS and CONFIRMATION BIAS.