THIS POST IS A CRITIAL REVIEW OF THE PROPOSITION THAT THE OCEANS ARE DYING BECAUSE OF THE HUMANS

PART-1: WHAT THE VIDEO SAYS

BRIAN WRIGHT: INTRO TO “THE DISASTER THAT IS HAPPENING IN THE OCEANS”.

PAUL BECKWITH: THERE WAS A PAPER RECENTLY THAT WAS TALKING ABOUT TIPPING POINTS IN THE OCEAN. AND BASICALLY IT WAS TALKING ABOUT THREE MAIN POINTS. THE FIRST ONE IS THE EXTENT OF THE OCEAN WARMING. IT’S NOT JUST THE WARMING AT THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN RISING QUITE RAPIDLY AND OF COURSE WHEN THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS ABOVE 26.5C DOWN IN THE TROPICAL REGIONS THEN ANY SMALL DISTURBANCE THAT PROPAGATES INTO A TROPICAL STORM BECOMES AMPLIFIED THAT MUCH MORE BY WATER TEMPERATURES ABOVE 26.5C BECAUSE THERE IS A LOT OF EVAPORATION BECAUSE THERE IS A LOT OF WARM WATER AT THE SURFACE AND A LOT OF EVAPORATION INTO THE AIR WHICH THEN RISES UP AND CONDENSES INTO DROPLETS AND CLOUDS AND RELEASES A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF ENERGY WHICH BUILDS UP THE INTENSITY OF THE HURRICANES OR CYCLONES CALL THEM WHAT YOU WANT. SO WE HAD A LARGE ONE VERY EARLY IN THE YEAR THAT HIT THE PHILLIPPINES AND UH THESE STORMS ARE GOING FROM TROPICAL DISTURBANCES TO THE FULL CATEGORY-5 IN RECORD SHORT TIME AND UH THEY’RE VERY VERY LARE STORMS AND OFTEN THEY DON’T MOVE AS QUICKLY ACROSS THE SURFACE AND SO WHEN THEY DO HIT AN ISLAND OR A CONTINENT THEY TEND TO LINGER AND BE THERE FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME AS FOR EXAMPLE HURRICANE HARVEY in 2017. WHEN HURRICANE HARVEY CAME ASHORE AND HIT TEXAS IT WAS ONLY MOVING AT A FEW MILES AN HOUR A FEW KILOMETERS AN HOUR SO IT WAS UH IT AFFECTED TEXAS UH IT WAS LIKE CONNECTING A FIRE HOSE FROM THE OCEAN TO THE LAND. SO THE WARMING OF THE OCEAN IS A BIG HUGE DEAL. AND SO THE WARMTH OF COURSE PROPAGATES DOWN THROUGH THE DEPTHS INTO THE OCEAN SO THE UPPER LAYERS ARE WARMING MUCH FASTER THAN THE LOWER LAYERS AND UH WARM WATER HAS UH IS LIGHTER SO WHEN THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM IT IS ALMOST LIKE A LAYER OR A LAMINATION OF THE OCEAN THE HEAT AND UH YOU GET LESS VERTICAL MIXING WHICH IS UH VERTICAL MIXING IS NEEDED TO BRING OXYGEN TO LOWER DEPTHS TO BRING CARBON TO LOWER DEPTHS AND WHEN YOU HAVE LESS VERTICAL MIXING YOU GET STRATIFICATION OF THE OCEAN AND UH UH YOU KNOW THAT’S A PROBLEM. THE THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION. SO THERMAL HEAT, SALINE YOU KNOW THE SALTINESS AND UH {?TRIPPING APPLE FROM THE GULF STREAM?} COMING UP THE UH THE EASTERN COAST OF THE US UH AS IT MOVES NORTH UH EAST IT CARRIES TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF HEAT OVER TO EUROPE THEN THE GULF STREAM HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN AND IT IS OVERRUNNING THE CONTINENTAL SHELF OF THE US MORE SO WE’RE GETTING RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES DOWN TO DEPTH OVER THE CONTINENTAL SHELF OFF THE EASTERN US SO MOST NOTICEABLY UHMM SCUBA DIVERS IN MAINE FOR EXAMPLE THEY GO DOWN YOU KNOW 50 METERS AND THE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE UNBELIEVABLY WARM. OF COURSE THE WARM SURFACE WATERS ARE HAVING HUGE IMPACTS ON THE UH NEGATIVE IMPACTS ON THE CORAL REEF AND ON THE UH ON THE PACIFIC SIDE IT’S THE KUROSHIO CURRENT WHICH IS THEIR EQUIVALENT OF THE GULF STREAM AND THAT’S ALSO BEEN EXHIBITING SLOWING, YEAH, SO THE WHOLE HEAT TRANSFER ON THE PLANET IS BEING DISRUPTED. GENERALLY YOU KNOW OF COURSE THE EQUATORS ARE WARMED POLES ARE MUCH COLDER SO HEAT HAS TO MOVE FROM THE EQUATOR TO THE POLES AND IT DOES SO BY THE UH IN THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC WIND CURRENT WHICH SETS UP THE JET STREAM AND ALSO IN THE OCEAN. ABOUT 2/3 OF THE TRANSPORT OF HEAT IS IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND ABOUT 1/3 IN THE OCEAN. SO THE OCEAN WARMING ALSO MEANS THAT THE UH THE WARMER WATER IS LESS ABLE TO UMM DISSOLVE UMM GASES AS MUCH SO THAT MEANS THAT THERE UH THE OXYGEN THE DE-OXYGENATION OF THE OCEAN IS BECOMING AN ACCUTE PROBLEM. NOT JUST DEAD ZONES FROM PHYTOPLANKTON BLOOMS IN COASTAL REGIONS BUT WE’RE GETTING DEAD ZONES IN THE OCEAN WHERE THERE IS NOT ENOUGH OXYGEN FOR MARINE LIFE TO THRIVE – TO SURVIVE EVEN AND OF COURSE THE OCEAN ACIDIFICATION IS YOU KNOW IS A HUGE MAJOR FACTOR UMM THE OCEANS ARE ACIDIFYING UMM RAPIDLY AND UHH THE PH OF THE OPEN OCEAN HAS DECREASED UMM SO THE OCEANS ARE BECOMING MORE ACIDIC ABOUT A 30% TO 40% INCREASE UMM OF ACIDITY UMM OVER WHAT WE HAD AT PRE-INDUSTRIAL AND THAT UH YOU KNOW THE OCEAN ACIDITY HAS REMAINED STABLE FOR FOR MANY MANY TENS OF MILLIONS OF YEARS 30 UH 40 MILLLION YEARS AND NOW IT’S DROPPING VERY SHARPLY THE PH MEANING YOU KNOW THAT IT’S STARTING TO AFFECT SHELLFISH AND FORMING THEIR EXOSKELETONS AND ALSO PHYTOPLANKTON

{Note: Hurricane Harvey was a devastating Category 4 hurricane that made landfall on Texas and Louisiana in August 2017, causing catastrophic flooding and more than 100 deaths. It is tied with 2005’s Hurricane Katrina as the costliest tropical cyclone on record,[nb 1] inflicting $125 billion (2017 USD) in damage, primarily from catastrophic rainfall-triggered flooding in the Houston metropolitan area and Southeast Texas}.

CRITICAL COMMENTARY

(1): That rising SST is making tropical cyclones more devastating cannot be estabilshed by citing a few hurricans in the North Atlantic Basin and one typhoon in the West Pacific Basin. For that kind of analysis one must present the data for all cyclones in all six cyclone basins over a long study period of more than 30 years. See Knutson etal 2010. LINK to related post: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/01/30/list-of-posts-on-tropical-cyclones/

(2): Sources of heat and carbon in the ocean exceed that on land and in the atmosphere by many orders of magnitude and the ocean is larger than the atmosphere by many orders of magnitude.The atmosphere and ocean taken together weighs 1.36E18 tonnes of which the ocean is 99.62% and the atmosphere 0.38% That observed changes in ocean temperature and acidity can be explained in terms of atmospheric phenomena is a case of an extreme form of the atmosphere bias of climate science and of humans in general. We are land creatures and our experience is mostly atmospheric and moreover what we know about the ocean is somewhere close to zero.

LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/04/22/climate-science-101-4-22-2021/

LINK#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/08/14/ocean-volcanism/

(3): It is claimed that the total mass of ocean biota is decreasing but no data for that decrease is provided. The truth is he doesn’t have the data because we don’t really know the ocean. We are now just beginning to study it at depth. There is no empirical evidence that oceanic biota is decreasing because we don’t have the data. What is presented here is best undrstood as imaginations of a tortured mind convinced of a catastrophe of some kind and driven by the the superstitious nature of the humans.

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/01/26/ocean-heat-content-alarm-of-2021/

IT IS AN EXTREME FORM OF THE ATMOSPHERE BIAS OF HUMANS TO ASSUME THAT ALL TEMPERATURE CHANGES IN THE OCEAN EVEN IN THE ABYSSAL OCEAN, CAN BE UNDERSTOOD IN TERMS OF ATMOSPHERIC PHENOMENA AND HUMAN ACTIVITY. THIS KIND OF ATMOSPHERE BIAS IS FOUND IN CLIMATE SCIENCE. AS FOR EXAMPLE THE BLOB IS EXPLORED IN A RELATED POST ON THIS SITE: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/03/14/atmosphere-bias/

(4): THAT THE OCEAN CONTAINS SIGNIFICANTLY LARGER SOURCES OF HEAT IN THE FORM OF SUBMARINE VOLCANISM, MANTLE PLUMES, AND HYDROTHERMAL VENTS IS DESCRIBED IN A RELATED POST ON THIS SITE: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/01/20/offshore-hydrocarbon-seeps/ AND DISPLAYED IN THE YOUTUBE VIDEO BELOW. THE EXISTENCE OF THESE HEAT SOURCES MAKES IT NECESSARY THAT THE ATTRIBUTION OF OCEAN WARMING TO THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2 MUST PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT THE ATTRIBUTION. IT CANNOT BE ASSUMED THAT ALL TEMPERATURE CHANGES IN THE OCEAN CAN BE UNDERSTOOD IN TERMS OF ATMOSPHERIC PHENOMENA.

(5): THE THEORY OF ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE (AGW) IS ABOUT A SURFACE PHENOMENON THAT EXPLAINS A LONG TERM RISE IN GLOBAL MEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE (GMST) IN TERMS OF THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2. IT IS FURTHER CLAIMED THAT THE STRENGTH OF THE THEORY OF AGW DERIVES FROM THE MATCH IN TERMS OF EQUILIBRIUM CLIMATE SENSITIVITY BETWEEN THE OBSERVED LONG TERM TRENDS IN MEAN OCEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND THE THEORETICAL GREENHOUSE EFFECT AND AN AIRBORNE FRACTION OF 50% OF THE CO2 IN FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS. THE ASSUMED AVAILABILITY OF SUCH LARGE AMOUNTS OF EXTRA HEAT IN THIS EQUATION, ENOUGH TO HEAT LARGE SEGMENTS OF THE DEEP OCEAN IS INCONSISTENT WITH THIS THEORY.

(6): NOAA DATA ON OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE PRESENTED IN A RELATED POST ON THIS SITE: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/10/06/ohc/ . THE DATA SHOW THAT: {As expected, the annual data at the 700M depth shows greater volatility and uncertainty than the smoothed Pentadal data for the 2000M depth. An additional difference seen in the case of the Pacific is that the steady and sustained upward trend in OHC at 2000M is not found in the 700M data where no trend is evident until the 1990’s. This distinction is seen more clearly in the trend profiles where we find that in the smoothed data for 2000M, the moving decadal trends are all positive whereas in the data for 700 meters we see violent and unsynchronized swings of cooling and warming periods with North cooling while the South warms and vice versa. This disconnect between North and South is not seen in the smoothed data for 2000M. The smoothed full span data for 2000M indicate steadily rising Ocean Heat Content (OHC) for both the Northern and Southern segments in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. A very different pattern is seen in the Indian Ocean where the whole of the gain in OHC at either depth derives from warming in the South with no trend seen in the OHC of the North. The trend pattern seen for the annual 700M data in the Atlantic and Pacific where the upward trend in OHC begins in the 1990s is seen in the Indian Ocean data at both depths and at both annual and pentadal time scales. THESE PATTERNS IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH A UNIFORM ATMOSPHERIC SOURCE OF HEAT.

(7): MARINE HEAT WAVES: THE CREATION OF THE MARINE HEAT WAVE PHENOMENON CAN PERHAPS BE UNDERSTOOD IN TERMS RISING GMST. HOWEVER, THE MUCH GREATER HEAT ENERGY NEEDED FOR DEEP OCEAN TEMPERATURE CHANGES OF A LARGE MASS OF WATER REQUIRES A PRESENTATION OF THE HEAT BALANCE THAT EXPLAINS BOTH RISING GMST AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. WITHOUT THAT HEAT BALANCE THE ATTRIBUTION OF ALL OBSERVED OCEAN TEMPERTURE CHANGES TO ATMOSPHERIC PHENOMENA IS NOT CREDIBLE FOR TWO REASONS. THEY ARE (1) THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY INVOLVED IN OCEAN WARMING, AND (2) THE KNOWN EXTENSIVE HEAT SOURCES IN THE OCEAN ITSELF.

THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE OCEAN TOGETHER WEIGH 1.36E18 METRIC TONNES OF WHICH THE OCEAN IS 99.62% AND THE ATMOSPHERE 0.38%. THE ATMOSPHERE BIAS OF CLIMATE SCIENCE CREATES VIEWS OF THE WORLD THAT ARE INCONSISTENT WITH THE ENORMOUS SIZE OF THE OCEAN AND WITH OUT RELATIVE IGNORANCE OF IT.

HUMAN CAUSE: THE REAL ISSUE HERE IS HUMAN CAUSE BECAUSE WITHOUT EVIDENCE OF HUMAN CAUSE OF THE WARMING TREND, WHATEVER IMPACTS THE WARMING MAY HAVE ARE ALL NATURAL.

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/11/09/the-issue-is-human-cause/