Thongchai Thailand

Archive for May 2021

2010 Thai political protests - Wikipedia

(1) ACID RAIN CURES CLIMATE CHANGE: https://tambonthongchai.com/2010/04/24/hello-world/

(2) ODD PROSE FROM THE BANGKOK POST: https://tambonthongchai.com/?s=Odd+prose+from+the+Bangkok+Post

(3) UNFETTERED BY DATA: https://tambonthongchai.com/?s=Unfettered+by+data

(4) THAILAND POLITICS: https://wordpress.com/post/tambonthongchai.com/41

(5) SENATE TO ACT ON CLIMATE BILL: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2010/04/28/51/

(6) THE SEA SQUIRT IS US: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2010/04/28/the-sea-squirt-is-us/

(7) THAILAND POLITICS: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/?s=A+Gordian+solution+for+Thailand

(8) FEAR MONGERING 101: https://tambonthongchai.com/2010/05/11/scareology-101-a-brief-history-of-extreme-environmentalism/

(9) A GENERATION OF HUNGRY LOCUSTS: https://tambonthongchai.com/2010/05/12/132/

(10) MORAL COMPASS: https://tambonthongchai.com/2010/05/14/moral-compass/

(11) THE BIOFUELS CONUNDRUM: https://tambonthongchai.com/2010/05/14/biofuels/

(12) ECO FEAROLOGY IN THE ANTHROPOCENE: https://tambonthongchai.com/2010/05/16/171/

(13) THE FOREIGN AID BUSINESS: https://tambonthongchai.com/2010/05/18/the-foreign-aid-business/

(14) OCEANS RUNNING OUT OF FISH: https://tambonthongchai.com/2010/05/19/oceans-running-out-of-fish/

(15) RED SHIRT MAYHEM IN BANGKOK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2010/06/07/red-shirt-riots-in-bangkok-is-karmic-payback/

(16) DOES GLOBAL WARMING CAUSE EXTREME WEATHER? https://tambonthongchai.com/2010/06/08/does-global-warming-cause-extreme-weather/

(17) THE GOOD OLD DAYS: https://tambonthongchai.com/2010/06/10/the-good-old-days/

(18) DO TREES CAUSE GLOBAL WARMING? https://tambonthongchai.com/2010/06/14/do-trees-cause-global-warming/

(19) ARE THE GLACIERS IN TIBET MELTING? https://tambonthongchai.com/2010/06/17/the-glaciers-in-tibet-are-melting/

(20) FIFA GOBBLEDYGOOK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2010/06/23/fifa-gobbledygook/

(21) ANTARCTICA MELTING: https://tambonthongchai.com/2010/06/23/282/

(22) DOES DEFORESTATION CAUSE DROUGHT? https://tambonthongchai.com/2010/06/30/does-deforestation-cause-drought/

(23) AN AUSTERITY PROGRAM FOR THAILAND https://tambonthongchai.com/2010/07/09/an-austerity-program-for-thailand/

(24) THE BRASILIA MODEL: https://tambonthongchai.com/?s=The+Brasilia+model

(25) PERFORMANCE OF GREEN STOCKS: https://tambonthongchai.com/?s=Performance+of+Green+stocks

(26) THE DUTCH AUDIT OF IPCC REPORTS: https://tambonthongchai.com/2010/07/11/the-dutch-audit-of-ipcc-reports/

(27) RISE AND FALL OF THE GLOBAL WARMING HYPE https://tambonthongchai.com/2010/07/12/rise-and-fall-of-the-global-warming-hype/

(28) VIETNAM FACES A HUGE CHALLENGE FROM CLIMATE CHANGE; https://tambonthongchai.com/2010/07/18/vietnam-faces-a-huge-challenge-from-climate-change/

(29) GOOFY BUREAUCRATESE: https://tambonthongchai.com/2010/07/19/goofy-bureaucrat-ese/

(30) TRUTH AND RECONCILIATION COMMISSIONS: https://tambonthongchai.com/2010/07/20/truth-and-reconciliation-commissions/

(31) THE GREAT BANGKOK STORM SURGE OF 2008: https://tambonthongchai.com/2010/07/20/the-great-bangkok-storm-surge-of-2008/

(32) HIMALAYAN GLACIERS MELTING AGAIN PART 2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/09/19/himalayan-glaciers-melting-again-part-2/

(33) GLACIAL MELT WATER ARITHMETIC: https://tambonthongchai.com/2010/07/22/glacial-melt-water-arithmetic/

(34) GLACIER MASS BALANCE: https://tambonthongchai.com/2010/07/23/glacier-mass-balance/

(35) NYT COLUMNIST SAYS HEAT WAVE PROVES CLIMATE SCIENCE: https://tambonthongchai.com/2010/07/28/nyt-columnists-say-heat-wave-proves-ipcc-right/

(36) CLIMATE CHANGE DISCLAIMERS: https://tambonthongchai.com/2010/08/11/climate-change-disclaimers/

(37) REAL ENVIRONMENTAL ACTION: https://tambonthongchai.com/2010/08/18/real-environmental-action/

(38) ARE BIOFUELS GOOD OR BAD???? https://tambonthongchai.com/2010/08/18/are-biofuels-good-or-bad/

(39) ASIA’S RISING MIDDLE CLASS; https://tambonthongchai.com/2010/08/21/asias-rising-middle-class/

(40) IT’S NOT XENOPHOBIA: https://tambonthongchai.com/2010/08/24/its-not-xenophobia/

(41) THE CONTRADICTIONS IN CLIMATE ALARMISM: https://tambonthongchai.com/2010/08/26/the-contradictions-in-climate-alarmism/

(42) A CLIMATE CHANGE WAKE UP CALL: https://tambonthongchai.com/2010/09/11/climate-change-wake-up-call/

(43) WORLD BANK FUNDS MOUNTAIN PAINTING PROJECT: https://tambonthongchai.com/2010/09/15/world-bank-funds-mountain-painting-project/

(44) FEAR BASED ENVIRONMENTALISM: https://tambonthongchai.com/2010/09/15/fear-based-environmentalism/

(45) OVERPOPULATION CLIMATE CHANGE MASS EXTINCTIONS: https://tambonthongchai.com/2010/10/20/overpopulation-to-cause-mass-extinctions/

(46) THE CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY INDEX: https://tambonthongchai.com/2010/10/20/the-climate-change-vulnerability-index/

(47) THE STRANGE CASE OF THE ARGO PROJECT: https://tambonthongchai.com/2010/11/10/the-strange-case-of-the-argo-project/

(48) WARMING OCEANS, MELTING GLACIERS, RISING SEAS: https://tambonthongchai.com/2010/11/25/warming-oceans-melting-glaciers-rising-seas/

(49) GLOBAL WARMING CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE IPCC AR5: https://tambonthongchai.com/2013/01/11/global-warming-climate-change-and-the-ipcc-ar5/

(50) GLOBAL WARMING CAUSES VOLCANIC ERUPTION: https://tambonthongchai.com/?s=Global+Warming+Causes+Volcanic+Eruption%3A+2010

(51) THE POPULATION BOMB UPDATE 2010: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/05/21/the-population-bomb-update-2010/

(52) CLIMATE SCIENCE VERSUS THE FANG ZHI 2005: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/05/22/climate-science-versus-the-fangzhi-2005/

(53) THE DEARTH OF SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE ONLY ADDS TO THE ALARM: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/05/22/global-warming-science-2007-the-dearth-of-scientific-knowledge-only-adds-to-the-alarm/

(54) FISHING FOR CLIMATE CALAMITY: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/05/23/fishing-for-climate-calamity/

(55) Nonlinear Dynamics: Is Climate Chaotic? https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/05/25/nonlinear-dynamics-is-climate-chaotic/

17 Best Places to Visit in Thailand (with Map & Photos) - Touropia

Clil globalization

QUESTION: WHY IS GLOBALIZATION BAD FOR THE ENVIRONMENT?

Quotes about Environmentalist (99 quotes)

ANSWER#1: GLOBALIZATION INCREASES THE SHIPPING DISTANCE OF GOODS AND THE EXTRA FOSSIL FUEL NEEDED INCREASES FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS AND GLOBAL WARMING

Measuring greenhouse gas emissions from international air travel of a  country's residents methodological development and application for Sweden -  ScienceDirect

ANSWER#2: GLOBALIZATION CAUSES HABITAT DESTRUCTION:

Habitat Destruction (Earth in Danger): Orme, Dr Helen: 9781597167253:  Amazon.com: Books

ANSWER#3: OVERSEAS SHIPPING IN TRADE TRANSFERS INVASIVE SPECIES TO ECO SYSTEMS THAT HAVE NO DEFENSE

Invasive species website goes live | Outdoors | billingsgazette.com

ANSWER#4: TRADE PROMOTES ECONOMIC SPECIALIZATION AND ECONOMIC SPECIALIZATION LEADING TO HABITAT LOSS, DEFORESTATION, RESOURCE DEPLETION.

Habitat Loss — Bagelparrot Conservation Alliance

ANSWER#5: DECREASED BIODIVERSITY. INCREASED GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS, OCEAN ACIDIFICATION, DEFORESTATION, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND LOSS OF BIODIVERSITY. DECREASE IN THE POPULATION OF ORGANISMS

9 Ways to Prevent Biodiversity Loss and What Causes It

CRITICAL COMMENTARY

Eco Friendly Products, Green Living Resources, Materials, Politics &  Community
  1. Although the eco wackos present the case of a conflict between economics and ecology, what we see is that it is only in countries made rich with the economics of globalization, trade, and manufacture that the citizens can afford the luxury of this world view.
  2. That there are conflicts among species is a natural thing and very much an intrinsic property of the dynamics and evolution of nature. Humans are just another species of mammals and very much a part of nature and part of this process and not the caretakers of the earth and the managers of nature and not the gods of nature that will decide how nature should work.
  3. That we have lost our original concept of ecology and of the management of our enivornment (French for surroundings) to safeguard and enhance human welfare, and embarked on a god-like role as managers of nature is demonstrated in the Bambi Principle of environmentalism described in a related post on this site: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/15/the-bambi-principle/ .
Bambi Turns 75! Take a Deeper Look at the Film's Impact on Animation, Risk  Taking and the Loss of a Parent

4. CLIMATE CHANGE: Fossil fuels were at one time, back in the smog and acid rain days, an environmental issue. It is no longer so as the fossil fuels of today comply with all EPA regulations. The fossil fuel issue today is not envronmentalism but the finding by climate science that burning fossil fuels causes atmospheric CO2 to rise and that rising atmospheric CO2 in turn causes warming, and that we should stop burning fossil fuels in order to stop the warming. This issue is not environmentalism and it has nothing to do with the claim that globalization is bad because it is bad for the environment.

5. Humans are part of life on earth and we have a right to be here and that our presence here will have an environmental impact is a given and that some species will suffer as a result is part of that evolutionary dynamic that has created the current species mix we see. This current species mix and condition is not some kind of ideal static for us to maintain but a passing state of a volatile and ever changing nature.

6. HUMANS ARE NOT THE MANAGERS NOR THE CARETAKERS OF NATURE. GENESIS IS SCRIPTURE AND RELIGION AND IT BELONGS IN THE CHURCH AND ONLY IN THE CHURCH.

44 Bible verses about Dominion

Planet Releaf – Planting One Million Trees

ABOUT THE WORLD’S TREES

THE MATH IN TERMS OF LAND AREA

  1. THERE ARE 8.7E9 HECTARES OF LAND ON EARTH WHERE TREES CAN BE GROWN.
  2. OF THAT, 5.5E9 HECTARES ALREADY HAVE TREES.
  3. THIS MEANS THAT THE MAXIMUM PHOTOSYNTHESIS IMPACT OF HUMANS PLANTING TREES IS (8.7-5.5)/8.7 OR LESS THAN 37%. OF TOTAL LAND PHOTOSYNTHESIS.
  4. HOWEVER, 50% TO 80% OF THE WORLD’S PHOTOSYNTHESIS IS IN THE OCEAN. TAKING THE MIDPOINT OF THIS RANGE WE CAN SAY THAT ON AVERAGE THE OCEAN PROVIDES 65% OF PHOTOSYNTHESIS AND LAND ONLY 35%.
  5. THEREFORE, THE MAXIMUM HUMAN IMPACT OF PLANTING TREES IS TO INCREASE PHOTOSYNTHESIS BY 37% OF 35% OR ABOUT 13% AT MOST.
  6. THIS MAXIMUM POSSIBLE IMPACT OF HUMANS PLANTING TREES IS WELL WITHIN THE UNCERTAINTY RANGE OF GLOBAL PHOTOSYNTHESIS ESTIMATIONS.
  7. THEREFORE NO MEASURABLE OR STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT PHOTOSYNTHESIS EFFECT IS POSSIBLE BY HUMANS PLANTING TREES.

THE MATH IN TERMS OF THE NUMBER OF TREES

ON AVERAGE THERE ARE 1600 TREES PER HECTARE. ON THIS BASIS WE CAN EXPRESS THE MATH PRESENTED ABOVE IN TERMS OF HOW MANY TREES.

IN TERMS OF THE NUMBER OF TREES, THERE ARE MORE THAN 8,800 BILLION TREES IN THE WORLD’S FORESTS. THIS MEANS THAT FOR EACH BILLION TREES YOU PLANT, WE WILL INCREASE THE WORLD’S LAND PHOTOSYNTHESIS BY 0.011%. HOWEVER, PHOTOSYNTHESIS IS MOSTLY IN THE OCEAN WITH LAND PHOTOSYNTHESIS ACCOUNTING FOR NO MORE THAN 35% OF THE WORLD’S PHOTOSYNTHESIS. THIS MEANS THAT FOR EACH BILLION TREES YOU PLANT YOU WILL INCREASE THE WORLD’S PHOTOSYNTHESIS BY 0004% AND THUS SAVE THE PLANET. THANK YOU.

THE BIGGER ISSUE IS THE ASSUMED CLIMATE CHANGE CONTEXT

THE THEORY OF ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING IS SPECIFIC TO FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS AS THE CAUSE AND ITS CESSATION AS THE REMEDY. IT SAYS THAT THE CARBON IN FOSSIL FUELS IS MILLIONS OF YEARS OLD OR PERHAPS GEOLOGICAL BUT CERTAINLY NOT PART OF THE CURRENT ACCOUNT OF THE CARBON CYCLE. THEREFORE, THE INJECTION OF THIS EXTERNAL CARBON IS AN UNNATURAL PERTURBATION OF THE CARBON CYCLE THAT CAUSES ATMOSPHERIC CO2 TO RISE AND CAUSE A DANGEROUS MAN MADE WARMING.

THE CLIMATE ACTION OF THE HUMANS DEMANDED BY CLIMATE SCIENCE IS THAT WE MUST STOP BURNING FOSSIL FUELS. THE ODD INTERPRETATION OF THIS CLIMATE ACTION THAT WE CAN CONTINUE TO BURN FOSSIL FUELS IF WE MAKE THE EQUIVALENT CARBON CYCLE INTERVENTION TO OFFSET OUR FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS WITH INCREASED PHOTOSYNTHESIS OF TREES IS INCONSISTENT WITH THE THEORY OF ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING.

SEE ALSO: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/06/19/vegandiet/

THE FATAL FLAW IN THE IDEA THAT PLANTS AND TREES AND VEGETATION CAN SEQUESTER CARBON IS THAT THEY CAN’T BECAUSE THE CARBON THEY REMOVE FROM THE ATMOSPHERE IS RETURNED TO THE ATMOSPHERE WHEN THEY DIE. THE SEQUESTRATION OF CARBON FROM THE ATMOSPHERE BY PLANTS IS ONLY FOR A WHILE.

A QUORA DISCUSSION OF TREES AND CLIMATE CHANGE: SEPTMBER 16, 2021

QUESTION:

ANSWER:

RESPONSE TO THE TRILLION TREE ARGUMENT ABOVE:

IN TERMS OF THE NUMBER OF TREES, THERE ARE MORE THAN 8.8 TRILLION TREES IN THE WORLD’S FORESTS. THIS MEANS THAT FOR EACH TRILLION TREES YOU PLANT, WE WILL INCREASE THE WORLD’S LAND PHOTOSYNTHESIS BY 11.36%. HOWEVER, PHOTOSYNTHESIS IS MOSTLY IN THE OCEAN WITH LAND PHOTOSYNTHESIS ACCOUNTING FOR NO MORE THAN 35% OF THE WORLD’S PHOTOSYNTHESIS. THIS MEANS THAT FOR EACH TRILLION TREES YOU PLANT YOU WILL INCREASE THE WORLD’S PHOTOSYNTHESIS BY ABOUT 4%. THE INCREASE IN PHOTOSYNTHESIS ACHIEVED IS WELL WITHIN THE UNCERTAINTY BAND OF GLOBAL PHOTOSYNTHESIS ESTIMATION. THIS MEANS THAT NO STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN GLOBAL PHOTOSYNTHESIS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM PLANTING A TRILLION TREES.

We Can Use Trees to Fight Climate Change. Here's How | Time

THE AZOLLA OPTION

IT IS PROPOSED THAT THE MUCH HIGHER CO2 SEQUESTRATION CAPACITY OF AZOLLA IMPLIES THAT WE CAN FIGHT CLIMATE CHANGE SIMPLY BY PLANTING AZOLLA. I HECTARE OF AZOLLA WILL SEQUESTER 1.86 TONNES OF CO2. THERE ARE 3.2E9 HECTARES OF LAND AVAILABLE WHERE THEY CAN BE PLANTED. THE SEQUESTRATION CAPACITY OF 3.2E9 HECTARES IS 6E9 TONNES OF CO2. THE CURRENT RATE OF EMISSIONS IS 36E9 TONNES OF CO2 PER YEAR. THIS MEANS THAT THE CO2 SEQUESTRATION CAPACITY OF AZOLLA WILL BE USED UP IN 2 MONTHS.

BOTTOM LINE: THE ONLY CLIMATE ACTION AVAILABLE IS TO STOP BURNING FOSSIL FUELS. THIS IDEA THAT WE CAN USE THE CARBON SEQUESTRATION CAPACITY OF PLANTS AND TREES AS CLIMATE ACTION AND KEEP BURNING FOSSIL FUELS IS NOT GOING TO WORK.

Azolla - Climate Foundation

THE FATAL FLAW:

AND TO TOP IT ALL OFF, THE FATAL FLAW IN THE IDEA THAT PLANTS AND TREES AND VEGETATION CAN SEQUESTER CARBON IS THAT THEY CAN’T BECAUSE THE CARBON THEY REMOVE FROM THE ATMOSPHERE IS RETURNED TO THE ATMOSPHERE WHEN THEY DIE.

A QUESTION FROM MICHAEL WAYNE BOX SAYS

I AM LOOKING FOR CLIMATOLOGY FORECASTS THAT ARE MORE THAN 10 YEARS OLD AND THAT MADE A PROJECTION THAT HAS SINCE COME TO PASS. I AM LOOKING FOR A MEASURABLE FORECAST THAT HAS BEEN FOUND TO BE MEASURABLY TRUE.

ANSWERS IN THE YEAR OF OUR LORD 2021:

MAY 20: NO ANSWER YET

MAY 21: NO ANSWER YET

MAY 22: NO ANSWER YET

MAY 23: NO ANSWER YET

MAY 24: NO ANSWER YET

MAY 25: NO ANSWER YET

MAY 26: NO ANSWER YET

MAY 27: NO ANSWER YET

MAY 28: NO ANSWER YET

MAY 29: NO ANSWER YET

MAY 30: NO ANSWER YET

MAY 31: NO ANSWER YET

JUNE 1: NO ANSWER YET

JUNE 2: NO ANSWER YET

JUNE 3: NO ANSWER YET

JUNE 4: NO ANSWER YET

JUNE 5: NO ANSWER YET

JUNE 6: NO ANSWER YET

JUNE 7: NO ANSWER YET

JUNE 8: NO ANSWER YET

JUNE 9: NO ANSWER YET

JUNE 10: NO ANSWER YET

JUNE 11: NO ANSWER YET

JUNE 11: NEW QUESTION BY MICHAEL:

Michael Wayne BoxMichael Wayne Box requested your answer
The warming of the planet and increased CO2 are both good for plants, many of which we eat. What result outweighs this benefit?
Potential climate change impacts | GRID-Arendal

Decision Errors - Intro to Inferential Statistics - YouTube

THIS POST IS A LIST OF LINKS TO POSTS ON THIS SITE THAT RELATE TO STATISTICS ERRORS IN CLIMATE SCIENCE.

STATISTICS POST#1: THE MATHEMATICAL INCONSISTENCY ISSUE BETWEEN ECS AND TCRE.

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/08/26/a-mathematical-inconsistency/

Tip of the Week: What's with all the inconsistency? | Change ...

THE EQUILIBRIUM CLIMATE SENSITIVITY ECS: The ECS measure of the impact of fossil fuel emissions on warming holds that atmospheric CO2 concentration at any given time is a linear function of cumulative emissions and that surface temperature is a logarithmic function of atmospheric CO2 concentration. These two relationships imply that surface temperature is a logarithmic function of cumulative emissions. That in turn implies that the amount of warming caused by a given level of cumulative emissions is the difference between the logarithms of the two cumulative emissions before and after.

TRANSIENT CLIMATE RESPONSE TO CUMULATIVE EMISSIONS TCR: The TCR measure of the impact of fossil fuel emissions on warming holds that the amount of warming is a linear function of cumulative emissions. This linearity is mathematically inconsistent with the ECS measure which implies that the amount of warming is proportional to the difference between the logarithms of the cumulative emissions before and after the period of warming under study.

IMPLICATIONS OF THIS MATHEMATICAL INCONSISTENCY: The mathematical inconsistency described above shows that the significant research effort in climate science to resolve the ECS and TCR measures of anthropogenic warming in terms of fossil fuel emissions with Earth System Models {ESM} is not possible because the two methods of computing the impact of emissions on temperature are not mathematically consistent and that makes it impossible for them to describe the same phenomenon in nature.

THE IMPOSSIBILITY OF EARTH SYSTEM MODELS {ESM} THAT EMPLOY THE TCRE. In a related post on ESM we argue that the ESM construction procedure of beginning with the TCR warming derived from cumulative emissions and then explaining the result from an arbitrarily expanded list of ECS climate drivers is a form of circular reasoning. In this post we find that a further and more serious flaw in this procedure is the mathematical impossibility of the ESM exercise of reconciling ECS and TCR: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/08/25/earth-system-models-and-carbon-budgets/

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STATISTICS POST#2: THE MATHEMATICAL IMPOSSIBILITY OF THE TCRE

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/05/06/tcre/

THE TCRE IS A CORRELATION BETWEEN THE CUMULATIVE VALUES OF TWO TIME SERIES DATA. IN A RELATED POST WE SHOW THAT THE THE TIME SERIES OF THE CUMULATIVE VALUES OF A TIME SERIES CONTAINS NEITHER TIME SCALE NOR DEGREES OF FREEDOM. THEREFORE A CORRELATION BETWEEN TWO SUCH TIME SERIES CONTAINS NO USEFUL INFORMATION ABOUT A RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE TWO TIME SERIES. IN THE CASE OF TH CORRELATION BETWEEN CUMULATIVE EMISSIONS AND CUMULATIVE WARMING, WE FIND THAT THE OBSERVED CORRELATION IS A CREATION OF A SIGN PATTERN IN THE DATA WHERE ANNUAL EMISSIONS ARE ALWAYS POSITIVE AND IN A TIME OF RISING TEMPERATURES, ANNUAL WARMING IS MOSTLY POSITIVE. THE CREATION OF THE TCRE CORRELATION FROM THIS TIME PATTERN IS CONFIRMED WITH A DEMNSTRATION THAT NOT JUST EMISSIONS BUT ANY TIME SERIES WITH POSITIVE VALUES WORKS JUST AS WELL, EVEN UFO SIGHTINGS.

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/12/03/tcruparody/

ufo2

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STATISTICS POST#3: THE REMAINING CARBON BUDGET ANOMALY IN CLIMATE SCIENCE

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/12/25/the-remaining-carbon-budget-anomaly-explained/

Carbon budgets are derived from the TCRE (Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Emissions) correlation between cumulative warming and cumulative emissions. The value of the TCRE is the regression coefficient of cumulative warming against cumulative emissions. In the previous item it is shown that the TCRE correlation derives not from the responsiveness of warming to emissions but from a sign pattern in which annual emissions are always positive and, during a warming trend, annual warming is mostly positive. Since emissions are always positive, the TCRE regression coefficient in this proportionality is determined by the fraction of annual warming values that are positive. Larger fractions of positive warming values yield higher values of the TCRE regression coefficient and it is the regression coefficient that determines the value of the carbon budget. Because of the random nature of the annual warming values, it is highly unlikely that the fraction of annual warming values that are positive in the full span of the carbon budget period will be the same as the fraction of annual warming values that are positive in the two halves of the full span. Therefore we find that in general the TCRE regression coefficient for the full span of the carbon budget period, that for the first half of the carbon budget period, and that for the second half of the carbon budget period will be different. It is this simple statistical issue that imposes the remaining carbon budget puzzle in climate science. For the carbon budgets in the two halves of the carbon budget period to be the same, the positive fraction of the annual warming values would have to be the same in the two halves and in general they are not and that creates the Remaining Carbon Budget anomaly. Therefore, the climate science assumption that the Remaining Carbon Budget anomaly has an interpretation in terms of the climate science of additional forcings or feedbacks in climate models or of additional climate variables in Earth System Models is flawed. The only information here is that the fraction of annual warming values that are positive are random and will therefore differ in general in the two halves.

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STATISTICS POST#4: THE NULL HYPOTHESIS ISSUE IN CLIMATE SCIENCE

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/04/05/the-null-hypothesis-issue/

CLIMATE SCIENCE CONTAINS A BIAS FOR THE TRUTH OF THAT WHICH IS TO BE PROVEN AND THAT THEREFORE CLIMATE SCIENCE CANNOT BE CONSIDERED TO BE UNBIASED AND OBJECTIVE SCIENTIFIC INQUIRY.

SPECIFICALLY, IN OBJECTIVE UNBIASED SCIENTIFIC INQUIRY, THAT WHICH IS TO BE PROVEN MUST BE THE ALTERNATE HYPOTHESIS AND ITS NEGATION THEN BECOMES THE NULL HYPOTHESIS. THE UNBIASED DATA COLLECTION MUST THEN PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT EVIDENCE TO REJECT THE NULL IN ORDER TO ACCEPT THE TRUTH OF THAT WHICH IS TO BE PROVEN.

THE TRUTH OF THAT WHICH IS TO BE PROVEN WHEN TAKEN AS THE NULL HYPOTHESIS CONTAINS A BIAS AND IT VIOLATES THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD SUCH THAT THE RESEARCH FINDINGS OF THIS METHODOLOGY CANNOT BE TAKEN AS THE PRODUCT OF OBJECTIVE AND UNBIASED SCIENTIFIC INQUIRY. 

THE ODD LOGIC IN CLIMATE SCIENCE DESCRIBED AS “THE LESS WE KNOW THE SCARIER IT GETSDERIVES FROM THIS STATISTICAL ERROR. THE TRUTH OF THAT WHICH IS TO BE PROVEN STANDS AS TRUTH UNTIL PROVEN WRONG. THIS BIAS IS OFTEN ACKNOWLEDGED AND THEN DEFENDED WITH THE PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE. 

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STATISTICS POST#5: THE PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE IN CLIMATE SCIENCE.

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/12/27/superstitious-humans/

THE ARGUMENT IS OFTEN SEEN IN CLIMATE SCIENCE CLAIMS THAT THE LESS THEY KNOW THE SCARIER IT GETS AS DESCRIBED IN THESE RELATED POSTS:

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/05/22/global-warming-science-2007-the-dearth-of-scientific-knowledge-only-adds-to-the-alarm/

THESE CLAIMS CONTAIN THE ASSUMPTION IN CLIMATE SCIENCE OF THE PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE OFTEN SEEN IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE. IT HOLDS THAT THE CLAIMED HARM OF HUMAN ACTIVITIES IS THE NULL HYPOTHESIS AND IS ASSUMED TO BE TRUE UNTIL CONVINCING EVIDENCE AGAINST IT CAN BE PRESENTED. THIS STATISTICAL LOGIC IS THE EXACT OPPOSITE OF WHAT WE SEE IN THE REST OF SCIENCE AND IN STATISTICAL PRINCIPLES WHERE THAT WHICH IS TO BE PROVEN IS THE ALTERNATE HYPOTHESIS AND ITS NEGATION IS THE NULL HYPOTHESIS SUCH THAT TO ESTABLISH THE TRUTH OF THE ALTERNATE HYPOTHESIS SUFFICIENT EVIDENCE AGAINST THE NULL MUST BE PRESENTED SO THAT THE NULL HYPOTHESIS CAN BE REJECTED. THE ONLY WAY A CONCLUSION CAN BE DRAWN FROM A HYPOTHESIS TEST IS BY REJECTING THE NULL HYPOTHESIS. IN THE ABSENCE OF THAT REJECTION, THERE IS NO USEFUL INFORMATION CAN BE DRAWN FROM THE HYPOTHESIS TEST. “FAIL TO REJECT” DOES NOT CONTAIN USEFUL INFORMATION. IN FACT WHAT IT TELLS US IS THAT THERE IS NO USEFUL INFORMATION HERE. THE USE OF THE PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE IS A VIOLATION OF THE STATISTICS OF HYPOTHESIS TESTS.

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STATISTICS POST#6: RESPONSIVENESS OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION TO FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS #1

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/06/14/responsiveness-of-atmospheric-co2-to-fossil-fuel-emissions/

A testable implication of the proposed causation sequence is that annual changes in atmospheric CO2 must be related to annual fossil fuel emissions at an annual time scale. This work is a test of this hypothesis. We find that detrended correlation analysis of annual emissions and annual changes in atmospheric CO2 does not support the anthropogenic global warming hypothesis that atmospheric CO2 concentration is responsive to fossil fuel emissions at an annual time scale. because. No evidence is found that changes in atmospheric CO2 are related to fossil fuel emissions at an annual time scale.

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STATISTICS POST#7:

THE UNCERTAINTY IN CARBON CYCLE FLOWS

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/05/31/the-carbon-cycle-measurement-problem/

The problem with determining the cause of changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration at an annual time scale is that the relatively small flow of fossil fuel emissions go into and intermingle with natural carbon cycle flows that are an order of magnitude larger with large uncertainties in the flow rates. These flows cannot be measured but only inferred from circumstantial data. The issue here is uncertainty.

salby
THE MAN WHO FIRST RAISED THIS ISSUE
RF-FIG1
FIGURE 1

What we have here is a mixing problem that is overwhelmed with large uncertainties. Relatively small fossil fuel emissions of CO2 with known flow rates go into the atmosphere and intermingle with relatively large carbon cycle CO2 flows flowing in both directions. Their flow rates are not known and cannot be measured. They can only be grossly inferred from circumstantial data.

This complex system of the the mixing of these CO2 flows is understood in climate science as the “Airborne Fraction” issue with the estimate that about half of the fossil fuel CO2 are removed by carbon cycle flows and the other half the fossil fuel CO2 stays in the atmosphere and causes atmospheric CO2 concentration to rise This assumed relationship is a foundational and critically important concept in the theory of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) and here we show that it is not well understood.

The Airborne Fraction ratio is estimated from the known flows of fossil fuel emissions and the known changes in atmospheric composition without considertion of uncertainty in carbon cycle flows. The data that were used to construct the airborne fraction hypothesis are then used to validate that hypothesis. This kind of hypothesis test is a form of circular reasoning, This is because THE DATA USED TO CONSTRUCT A HYPOTHESIS CANNOT BE USED TO TEST THAT HYPOTHESIS.

That the mean value of the Airborne Fraction is about a half means that about half of the CO2 in our fossil fuel emissions stays in the atmosphere and causes atmospheric CO2 to rise. However, the actual observed ratio is uncertan with a large variability. The left frame of Figure 1 above shows a large range of values for decadal mean Airborne Fraction from zero% to 45% 1860 to 2017. This sample period includes ice core CO2 data from the Law Dome for years prior to 1958. When the sample period is restricted to the more precise Mauna Loa data from 1958, a much smaller range of values is seen in the right frame of Figure 1 with decadal mean airborne fraction of 45% to 65% ans a mean of aroubd 50%.

These data appear to support the usual assumption in climate science that the Airborne Fraction is 50% that serves as evidence that fossil fuel emissions cause atmospheric CO2 to rise. This relationship implies that atmospheric CO2 concentration is responsive to fossil fuel emissions at an annual time scale. The testable implication is a statistically significant detrended correlation at an annual time scale. Without this correlation, though an airborne fraction can be computed, it has no interpretation in terms of cause and effect in the phenomenon being studied. The underlying issue here is of course the uncertainty in carbon cycle flows.

In the charts below we present an analysis of the to determine whether the relatively small flow of fossil fuel CO2 emissions can be detected with statistical significance in the context of much larger and uncertain carbon cycle flows that can’t be directly measured but must be inferred. We use a range of assumed carbon cycle flow uncertainties with standard deviations from 1% of estimated flow to 6.5% of estimated flow. We then carry out hypothesis tests to determine whether the carbon cycle flow with fossil fuel emissions is greater than the carbon cycle flow without fossil fuel emissions, in other words, whether the much smaller fossil fuel emissions can be detected in the context of the large flows and large uncertainties of carbon cycle flows. The p-values of these hypothesis tests are tabulated below and also shown graphically in the chart on the right. What we find is that the p-value of the hypothesis test is less than 0.05 only when the uncertainty in carbon cycle flows is less than 2% of flowrate whereas the smallest uncertainty found in IPCC reports is in we see in the IPCC publications is for photosynthesis with a mean of 123 gigatonnes per year and standard deviation of 8 gigatonnes. Here the standard deviation is 6.5% of flowrate. We conclude from this analysis that the net effect of fossil fuel emissions relatively tiny fossil fuel emissions injected into large an uncertain carbon cycle flows cannot be detected and that therefore we have no information about the eeffect of fossil fuel emissions on atmospheric composition.

THE TEST MADE BY CLIMATE SCIENCE OF USING THE RATIO OF THE OBSERVED RISE IN ATMOSPHERIC CO2 TO THE FLOW OF CO2 IN FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS IN THEIR AIRBORNE FRACTION ARGUMENT IS A CREATION OF CIRCULAR REASONING AND CONFIRMATION BIAS. THE USUAL RESPONSE TO THIS ARGUMENT IS SOMETHING LIKE “WHERE IS IT GOING THEN, WISE GUY?” {Ken Caldeira}. MY ANSWER IS THAT WE DON’T KNOW BECAUSE WE CAN’T MEASURE THE MUCH LARGER CARBON CYCLE FLOWS WITH SUFFICIENT PRECISION TO EVEN DETECT THE PRESENCE OF FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS.

IT IS NOT NECESSARY FOR CRITICS OR DENIERS TO KNOW THE REAL ANSWER IN ORDER TO CHALLENGE THE ANSWER PROPOSED BY CLIMATE SCIENCE ON THE BASIS OF THE UNCERTAINTY THAT IS NOT IN DISPUTE.

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STATISTICS POST#8: RESPONSIVENESS OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION TO FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS #2

THE UNCERTAINTY IN CARBON CYCLE FLOWS (CONTINUED):

ANOTHER WAY TO DEMONSTRATE THE ABSENCE OF INFORMATION ABOUT THE IMPACT OF FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS UNDER CONDITIONS OF LARGE UNCERTAINTIES IN CARBON CYCLE FLOWS IS A MONTE CARLO SIMULATION TO MIX FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS AND CARBON CYCLE FLOWS. THE RESULTS ARE SHOWN IN THE CHARTS BELOW.

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/06/10/a-monte-carlo-simulation-of-the-carbon-cycle/

FINDINGS: THE COMPLEX MASS BALANCE OF UNCERTAIN FLOWS IS CARRIED OUT WITH MONTE CARLO SIMULATION WHERE 150 RANDOM VALUES ARE DRAWN FROM ALL POSSIBLE VALUES WITHIN THE STATED UNCERTAINTY OF CARBON CYCLE FLOWS. THE IPCC PROVIDED AN UNCERTAINTY VALUE FOR THE FLOW OF CO2 REMOVED FROM THE ATMOSPHERE BY PHOTOSYNTHESIS AS A STANDARD DEVIATION OF σ=8 IN A FLOW WITH A MEAN VALUE OF μ=123. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS CASE CAN BE REPRESENTED AS σ=8/123 OR 6.5% OF THE MEAN . THE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE OTHER UNCERTAIN CARBON CYCLE FLOWS ARE NOT PROVIDED AND ARE THEREFORE ESTIMATED AS 6.5% OF THE MEAN. IN THE MONTE CARLO SIMULATION, 150 POSSIBLE VALUES ARE  DRAWN FROM WITHIN THIS UNCERTAINTY BAND FOR EACH UNCERTAIN CARBON CYCLE FLOW. LINES DRAWN THROUGH THESE 150 VALUES ARE DEPICTED IN THE CHARTS ABOVE FROM FIGURE 1 TO FIGURE 5. 

WHAT WE FIND IN THE SIMULATION IS THAT WHEN FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS ARE  INSERTED INTO THE CARBON CYCLE FLOWS, THE MEAN OF THE 150 RANDOM MONTE CARLO SIMULATION VALUES OF THE AIRBORNE FRACTION IS μ=4.77 WITH A STANDARD DEVIATION OF σ=12.7 . THERE IS NO STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION OF FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS TO ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITIONFOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS WE FIND THE MEAN OF THE AIRBORNE FRACTION IS CLOSE TO ZERO AS WE WOULD EXPECT WITH A COMPUTED MEAN OF μ= –1.7 BUT WITH A LARGE STANDARD DEVIATION OF σ=12.1 WITH THE IMPLICATION THAT THE COMPUTED MEAN HAS NO INTERPRETATION.

SUMMARY OF NET CO2 FLOWS TO THE ATMOSPHERE

CASE 1: NO FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS: MEAN=-1.7, STDEV=12.1, TSTAT=0.14

CASE 2: WITH FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS: MEAN=4.77, STDEV=12.7, TSTAT=0.375

CONCLUSION; THE TWO MEAN CONTRIBUTIONS OF THE CARBON CYCLE WITH AND WITHOUT FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS TO ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION HAVE NO INTERPRETATION BECAUSE OF A COMPLETE ABSENCE OF STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE DUE TO LARGE UNCERTAINTIES. WE CONCLUDE THAT WITHIN THE STATED UNCERTAINTIES OF CARBON CYCLE FLOWS, NO EVIDENCE IS FOUND IN THE DATA THAT FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS CAUSE CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION. THE UNCERTAINTIES IN CARBON CYCLE FLOWS ARE TOO LARGE TO DETECT THESE ASSUMED EFFECTS. THE ASSUMED SENSITIVITY OF ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION TO FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS IS THE ESSENTIAL BASIS FOR THE THEORY OF ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING BY THE INDUSTRIAL ECONOMY AND THE CALL FOR COSTLY CLIMATE ACTION; BUT NO SUCH SENSITIVITY IS FOUND IN THE DATA. THIS RESULT IS SUPPORTED BY CORRELATION ANALYSIS PRESENTED IN A RELATED POST AT THIS SITE [LINK TO CORRELATION ANALYSIS].

MONTE-1
MONTE-3
MONTE CARLO SIMULATION

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STATISTICS POST#9: A HYPOTHESIS DERIVED FROM THE DATA CANNOT BE TESTED WITH THE SAME DATA

IN ITEM #5 AND ITEM#6 ABOVE WE FIND THAT THE AIRBORNE FRACTION OF 50% IS DERIVED FROM THE DATA. HOW IS THIS HYPOTHESIS TO BE TESTED? A HYPOTHESIS DERIVED FROM THE DATA CANNOT BE TESTED WITH THE SAME DATA. THAT KIND OF STATISTICS CONTANS A CIRCULAR REASONING FALLACY OFTEN DESCRIBED AS THE TEXAS SHARPSHOOTER FALLACY WHERE YOU SHOOT FIRST AND DRAW THE TARGET LATER. THEREFORE THE AIRBORNE FRACTION HYPOTHESIS DERIVED FROM THE DATA AS SHOWN ABOVE CANNOT BE TESTED.

Origin of the Texas Sharpshooter | Bayesian Spectacles
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STATISTICS POST#10: SEA LEVEL RISE CORRELATED WITH FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS

HERE WE PRESENT THE CLAIM BY CLIMATE SCIENCE THAT THEY HAVE FOUND EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE TO RELATE OBSERVED SEA LEVEL RISE TO GLOBAL WARMING BY WAY OF STATISTICS THAT SHOW A STRONG CORRELATION BETWEEN CUMULATIVE SEA LEVEL RISE AND CUMULATIVE EMISSIONS.

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/02/04/a-tcre-of-sea-level-rise/

IN POST#2 ABOVE WE SHOWED THAT THE TCRE CORRELATION BETWEEN CUMULATIIVE ANNUAL EMISSIONS AND CUMULATIVE ANNUAL WARMING IS SPURIOUS AND IT DERIVES FROM A SIGN PATTERN IN WHICH ANNUAL FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS ARE ALWAYS POSITIVE AND IN A TIME OF WARMING, ANNUAL WARMING IS MOSTLY POSITIVE. THAT SAME SIGN PATTERN APPLIES TO SEA LEVEL RISE WHERE ANNUAL FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS ARE ALWAYS POSITIVE AND ANNUAL SEA LEVEL RISE DURING A TIME OF RISING SEAS, IS MOSTLY POSITIVE.

YET WHAT WE FIND IN THE RELATED POST LINKED ABOVE IS THAT CLIMATE SCIENCE HAS MISTKEN THIS SPURIOUS CORRELATION AS PROVIDING EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE THAT FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS DRIVE SEA LEVEL RISE.

Image result for NEILS BOHR
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STATISTICS POST#11: EARTH SYSTEM MODELS AND THE TCRE

RELATED POST ON ESM: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/08/25/earth-system-models-and-carbon-budgets/

WHAT WE FIND IN THE RELATED POST ON EARTH SYSTEM MODELS IS THAT THE STATISTICALLY FLAWED TCRE METRIC IS NOW AN IMPORTANT TOOL IN CLIMATE SCIENCE THAT HAS ALLOWED IT TO BYPASS ITS UNCERTAINTY DIFFICULTIES WITH EQUILIBRIUM CLIMATE SENSITIVITY. GIVEN THE TCRE, WE CAN BEGIN WITH EMISSIONS AND THE TCRE WARMING AND THEN LOOK THROUGH ALL POSSIBLE EXPLANATION FOR THE TCR WARMING IN A CONFIRMATION BIAS EXERCISE THAT CAN AND DOES CREATE CONTRADICTIONS.

AS AN EXAMPLE OF THE PROBLEMS CREATED BY THE CIRCULAR REASONING EARTH SYSTEM MODEL METHODOLOGY WE PRESENT THE PAPER BELOW.

Environmental Research Letters: Quantifying process-level uncertainty contributions to TCRE and Carbon Budgets for meeting Paris Agreement climate targets.
Chris D Jone1 and Pierre Friedlingstein: 1 April 2020Abstract: To achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement requires deep and rapid reductions in anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but uncertainty surrounds the magnitude and depth of reductions. Earth system models provide a means to quantify the link from emissions to global climate change. Using the concept of TCRE – the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions – we can estimate the remaining carbon budget to achieve 1.5 or 2 oC. But the uncertainty is large, and this hinders the usefulness of the concept. Uncertainty in carbon budgets associated with a given global temperature rise is determined by the physical Earth system, and therefore Earth system modelling has a clear and high priority remit to address and reduce this uncertainty. Here we explore multi-model carbon cycle simulations across three generations of Earth system models to quantitatively assess the sources of uncertainty which propagate through to TCRE. Our analysis brings new insights which will allow us to determine how we can better direct our research priorities in order to reduce this uncertainty. We emphasize that uses of carbon budget estimates must bear in mind the uncertainty stemming from the biogeophysical earth system, and we recommend specific areas where the carbon cycle research community needs to re-focus activity in order to try to reduce this uncertainty. We conclude that we should revise focus from the climate feedback on the carbon cycle to place more emphasis on CO2 as the main driver of carbon sinks and their long-term behaviour. Our proposed framework will enable multiple constraints on components of the carbon cycle to propagate to constraints on remaining carbon budgets.

A CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF THIS PAPER IS PRESENTED IN A RELATED POST ON THIS SITE: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/04/09/climate-statistics/

WHAT THE PAPER SAYS

(1) ABOUT THE TCRE: A body of literature from 2009 found consistently that warming was much more closely related to the cumulative CO2 emissions than the time profile or particular pathway. This relationship between warming and cumulative emissions is found in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) as TCRE: the Transient Climate Response to cumulative carbon EmissionsThe physical basis of TCRE is described by Caldeira & Kasting (1993) who noted that saturation of the radiative effect of CO2 in the atmosphere could be balanced by saturation of uptake by ocean carbon leading to insensitivity of the warming to the pathway of CO2 emissions. Literature since then has put this on a firm footing with numerous authors showing that trajectories of ocean heat and carbon uptake have similar effects on global temperature due to the diminishing radiative forcing from CO2 in the atmosphere and the diminishing efficiency of ocean heat uptakeTerrestrial carbon uptake is equally important for the magnitude of TCRE – in fact we will show here that land and ocean contribute equally to the magnitude of TCRE and that land dominates over the ocean in terms of model spread.

(2) ABOUT TCRE CARBON BUDGETSThe IPCC AR5 assessed a total carbon budget of 790 PgC to stay below 2C above pre-industrial, of which about 630 PgC has been emitted over the 1870-2018 period. However, the uncertainty in the remaining carbon budget to achieve 1.5C or 2C is very large – in fact possibly larger than the remaining budget itself. This large uncertainty hinders the potential usefulness of this simplifying concept to policy makers. All studies and reports which present estimates of the remaining carbon budget (e.g. The IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report, its Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5oC, or the UNEP Gap Report) have to make an assumption on how to deal with and present this uncertainty. Some explicitly describe the chosen assumptions (such as 50% or 66% probability of meeting targets) or tabulate multiple options, but all are hindered by the uncertainty. The AR5 Synthesis Report quoted a value of 400 GtCO2 (110 GtC) remaining budget from 2011 for a 66% chance to keep warming below 1.5C. It is now clear that this was an underestimate as this would mean a remaining budget of about 20 GtC from 2020. Since AR5 there has been extensive literature on the application of the TCRE concept and its limitations including the choice of temperature metric and baseline period and issues of biases in Earth system models (ESMs)Some studies accounted for climate model biases by relating warming from present day onwards to the remaining carbon budget . Other studies have used the historical record to constrain TCRE and the remaining budget using simple models or attribution techniques. Both these approaches find a substantial increase in the remaining carbon budget for 1.5C compared to the IPCC AR5 SPM approach. Studies that have tried to additionally account for non-CO2 warming. show that CO2-only TCRE budgets are a robust upper limit but taking account of non-CO2 forcing results in lower allowable emissions. Some have proposed techniques for combining emissions rates of short-lived climate pollutants with long-term CO2 cumulative emission budgets. In light of these advances, the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C (SR15) quotes a value of 420 GtCO2 remaining carbon budget for a 66% chance to keep warming below 1.5C – a value very similar to the AR5 value from 5 years earlier.
There is also a lot of focus on how to achieve such carbon budgets and the increasing realization of the need for carbon dioxide removal and research into the feasibility and implications of negative emissions technology.

(3) ABOUT CARBON CAPTURE AND SEQUESTRATION:  The discussion around carbon dioxide removal (CDR) requires more detailed assessment of the magnitude and timing of any requirement for negative emissions technology and hence more precise estimates of remaining carbon budgets. Glen Peters  argues that large uncertainty in budget estimates may be used to justify further political inaction and Sutton (2018) argues for consideration of plausible high impact outcomes in the tails of the likelihood distributionThe same argument applies to TCRE and carbon budgets: we need information on best estimates but also possible extremes however unlikelyThe feasibility of achieving 1.5C without net negative emissions depends on the remaining budget being at the high end of current estimates. Knowing the likelihood of the range as well as central estimate is required to inform the debate on requirements for negative emissions. We should break down individual the individual contributions to uncertainty in carbon budgets in terms of historical human induced warming to date, likely range of TCRE, potential additional warming after emissions reached zero, warming from non-CO2 forcing, and carbon emissions from Earth system feedbacks not yet in Earth System Models as in thawing permafrost. Our ability to model the climate-carbon cycle system is imperfect with uncertainties but it plays a dominant role in the remaining carbon budget issue.
The SR15 assumptions of no further warming after CO2 emissions cease is consistent with the multi-model mean. Similarly, CMIP6 and sophisticated ESMs begin to include additional Earth system feedbacks – but the elephant in the room is that past generations of models have not seen a decreased spread in TCRE remaining carbon budget and adding complexity doesn’t help. In terms of climate sensitivity, GCMs continue with the large range of 3°C (from about 1.5 to about 4.5 °C) since the Charney report of 1979. We need to figure out where the large uncertainty in the TCRE remaining carbon budget comes from so that we can control it with observational constraints.

(4) WHAT’S NEW IN THIS PAPER:  Here we perform a new analysis of three generations of Earth System Model results, spanning over a decade, to examine whether or not existing simulations and analyses are well placed to answer the increasing requirements of policy makers on the carbon cycle research community. We present a new analytical framework which allows us to quantify sources of uncertainty in carbon budgets to land or ocean response to CO2 or climate. It is the carbon cycle response to CO2, rather than its response to climate, which dominates the uncertainty in TCRE and hence carbon budgets.

CRITICAL EVALUATION OF THE PAPER

Climate science has misinterpreted the statistical anomalies of the TCRE as a climate science issue that needs to be resolved with climate models of greater complexity. Their struggle with the remaining carbon budget puzzle seen in the Jone-Friedlingstein paper demonstrates a failure of climate science to address statistical issues of the TCRE in terms of statistics. This failure has led them down a complex and confusing path of trying to find a climate science explanation of the remaining carbon budget anomaly. The Jone-Friedlingstein paper research paper serves as an example of this kind of climate research. The real solution to the remaining carbon budget puzzle is to understand the statistical flaws in the TCRE correlation and to stop using it.  [LINK] [LINK] .

00PIERRE

Climate & Environment at Imperial – Insights from staff and students across  Imperial working in climate and environment related areas

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUE AS DESCRIBED IN A GRANTHAM INSTITUTE EVENT POSTED IN AN ONLINE VIDEO. THE TOPIC HERE CONNECTS ECONOMICS AND CLIMATE CHANGE WITH THE TITLE

“FAIRY TALES OF ECONOMIC GROWTH, RE-IMAGINING A SUSTAINABLE ECONOMY ON A CHANGING PLANET”.

ABSTRACT:

THE PRESENTATION BY THE GRANTHAM INSTITUTE MAKES THE CASE THAT CLIMATE CHANGE IS AN ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUE AND THAT OUR UNDERSTANDING OF FINANCE AND ECONOMICS IS INCOMPLETE AND DANGEROUSLY FLAWED WHEN ECONOMICS IS UNDERSTOOD IN THE ABSENCE OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONSIDERATIONS.

THIS ARGUMENT IMPLIES THAT CAPITALISM AS PRACTICED IS A DANGEROUS TOOL THAT IS SHORT TERM AND WITH ASSUMPTIONS THAT EXCLUDE NATURE. THE POINT OF THIS PRESENTATION IN THE CLIMATE CHANGE CONTEXT IS THE IMPLICATION THAT CLIMATE CHANGE IS A CREATIION OF CAPITALISM AND THAT THESE KINDS OF THINGS WILL CONTINUE TO HAPPEN IF WE DON’T FIX OUR ECONOMICS SYSTEM AND THAT WE CAN AND MUST FIX OUR ECONOMICS SYSTEM WITH AN ECO WACKO AGENDA INSERTED INTO ECONOMICS AND FINANCE TO INCLUDE NATURE AND THE PLANET BECAUSE WE ARE PART OF NATURE. THESE CHANGES TO OUR ECONOMICS SYSTEM ARE NEEDED SO THAT WE DON’T END UP DESTROYING THE PLANET.

YET WHAT WE SEE TODAY IS THAT EVEN AFTER MORE THAN 400 YEARS OF CAPITALISM AND MORE THAN A CENTURY OF CLASSICAL ECONOMICS WHAT WE FIND IN THE WORLD TODAY IS THAT THE HIGHEST QUALITY OF LIFE ON THE PLANET, LONELINESS OR NO, IS FOUND IN THESE SOCIETIES.

AS FOR THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE POPULATION, WEALTH, POWER, AND REACH OF HUMANS ON THIS PLANET IS NOW SO GREAT THAT THE PLANET HAS REACHED A NEW STATE CALLED THE ANTHROPOCENE WHERE THE WORLD’S NATURAL SYSTEMS ARE AT RISK OF BEING OVERWHELMED AND DESTROYED BY THE ENORMOUS REACH AND POWER OF THE HUMANS THAT NOW CONTOL PLANET, WE NOTE IN A RELATE POST THAT THIS HUMAN CONTROLLED STATE OF THE PLANET IS AN IMPOSSIBILITY.

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/03/30/the-humans-must-save-the-planet/

Bambi Turns 75! Take a Deeper Look at the Film's Impact on Animation, Risk  Taking and the Loss of a Parent

PART-1: A TRANSCRIPT OF THE VIDEO

OUR SPEAKER TODAY IS JOYCE MSUYA, ASSISTANT SECRETARY GENERAL OF THE UNITED NATIONS AND DEPUTY EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF THE UNITED NATIONS ENVIRONMENT PROGRAM. MS SUYA IS A MICROBIOLOGIST WHO BEGAN HER CAREER AT THE WORLD BANK IN 1998 AS A PUBLIC HEALTH SPECIALIST FOR AFRICA. AND SO NOW HAS MORE THAN 20 YEARS OF EXPERIENCE IN INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT OPERATIONS, STRATEGY, KNOWLEDGE, AND MANAGEMENT FOR AFRICA ASIA AND LATIN AMERICA. SHE ALSO SERVED AS THE WORLD BANK GROUP INSTITUTE FOR EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC REGION COORDINATER IN CHINA , PRINCIPAL “FRACSI?” OFFICER FOR THE INTERNATIONAL FINANCE CORPORATION AND SPECIAL ADVISER TO LORD NICHOLAS STERN, WORLD BANK SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT AND CHIEF ECONOMIST. FROM NOVEMEBER 2018 AND JUNE 2019, SHE SERVED AS INTERIM EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR AT THE UN ENVIRONMENT PROGRAM OVERSEEING THE UNEP PORTFOLIO IN 33 COUNTRIES AND OVERSEE IN NINE MULTILATERAL ENVIRONMENTAL AGREEMENTS ON CRITICAL ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES. THE UNIVERSITY OF {FAT FLIES?}, WHERE SHE WAS AN UNDERGRADUATE, NAMED HER THE ALUMNUS OF HE YEAR FOR 2019. SHE WILL SPEAK FOR 20 MINUTES AFTER WHICH WE WILL OPEN THE FLOOR FOR QUESTIONS FROM THE AUDIENCE.

LECTURE BY JOYCE MSUYA

{FAIRY TAKES OF ECONOMIC GROWTH, RE-IMAGINING A SUSTAINIABLE ECONOMY.

THANK YOU VERY MUCH BEN. I AM VERY DELIGHTED TO BE SPEAKING TO YOU ALL. LET ME START BY THANKING BEN FOR MODERATING THIS SESSION BUT ALSO MY DEEPEST THANKS TO PROFESSOR MARTIN SIEGERT DIRECTOR OF OF GRANTHAM INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE ENVIRONMENT. I AM DELIGHTED TO BE HERE TO TALK ABOUT A TOPIC THAT IS SO CLOSE TO MY HEART.

EARLY IN MY CAREER I HAD THE PRIVILEGE OF WORKING WITH LORD NICHOLAS STERN WHEN HE WAS THE CHIEF ECONOMIST OF THE WORLD BANK GROUP. EVER SINCE THEN, ECONOMICS HAS BEEN A SUBJECT THAT HAS SHAPED HOW I SEE THE WORLD EVEN THOUGH I WAS TRAINED AS A MICRO BIOLOGIST. BUT WHAT I AM REALLY SPEAKING ABOUT TODAY GOES DEEPER THAN ECONOMICS. IT CUTS TO THE HEART OF ONE OF THE GREATEST CHALLENGES OF OUR TIME. IT IS A CHALLENGE THAT CAN BE SUMMED UP WITH A QUESTION. THAT QUESTION IS THIS: “HOW CAN HUMANKIND FLOURISH FOR GENERATIONS TO COME WITHOUT LAYING WASTE TO THE LIVING WORLD THAT SUSTAINS US.

ANSWERING THIS QUESTION REQUIRES US TO LOOK AT THE STORY THAT MAINSTREAM ECONOMICS HAS TOLD US. IT IS A STORY ABOUT WHO WE HUMAN BEINGS ARE. ECONOMISTS VIEW PEOPLE AS RATIONAL DECISION MAKERS AND SOLITARY ACTORS WHO ARE MOTIVATED PRIMARILY BY COMPETITION. WE ARE TOLD THAT WE HUMANS ARE CALCULATING, GREEDY, AND DOMINANT OVER NATURE.

TO THE POINT THAT ECONOMIST ADAM SMITH HAS ENCOURAGED US TO PURSUE OUR SELF INTEREST BECAUSE ECONOMICS THEORY SAYS THAT THIS IS WHAT BEST SERVES INDIVIDUAL AND COLLECTIVE WELL BEING OF US HUMANS. THS VIEW OF HUMAN WELL BEING IS CENTRAL TO MODERN ECONOMICS AND THE MODERN WORLD.

Economics ( ศาสตร์แห่งทางเลือก ) - westorys.com

BUT HOW TRUE IS IT?

WE NOW KNOW THAT IT IS ONLY HALF THE PICTURE. THE NOBEL PRIZE WINNING ECONOMIST DANIEL KAHNEMAN WAS FAMOUS FOR SHOWING THAT HUMANS HAVE AN AMAZING ABILITY TO ACT COMPLETELY IRRATIONALLY AND THAT NOR ARE WE ENTIRELY SELFISH AND COMPETITIVE. SO WE NOW KNOW THAT THE ECONOMICS OF ADAM SMITH IS ONLY HALF THE PICTURE. OUR CAPACITY FOR LOVE AND CARING AND COOPERATION IS ETCHED INTO OUR DNA.

THIS MEANS THAT THE ECONOMICS SYSTEM WE BUILT IS BASED ON A VERY LIMITED AND LIMITING DEFINITION OF WHAT IT MEANS TO BE HUMAN. BECAUSE OUR ECONOMISTS ENCOURAGE CONSUMPTION AND NOVELTY SEEKING BEHAVIOR, WE HAVE CREATED SOCIETIES THAT VALUE PROFIT, MATERIAL WEALTH, AND ECONOMIC EXPANSION ABOVE ALL ELSE. AND AS A RESULT WE END UP USING EVEN MORE RESOURCES AND CAUSING EVEN MORE ECOLOGICAL HARM.

Daniel Kahneman | Biography, Nobel Prize, & Facts | Britannica

WHAT HAS THIS LED TO?

IT HAS LED TO ENRICHED HIGH INCOME NATIONS.

AND HERE IS WHAT WE FIND IN THESE COUNTRIES:

SERIOUS SIGNS OF SOCIAL AND CULTURAL DECAY.

IT IS BECAUSE OF THIS THAT THERE IS AN EPIDEMIC OF LONELINESS. {Blogger’s reference: An Epidemic of Loneliness, Harvard University, LINK: https://www.gse.harvard.edu/news/21/02/combatting-epidemic-loneliness}

WE ALSO FIND IN THESE SAME COUNTRIES THAT:

(1) TRUST IN THE GOVERNMENT CONTINUES TO DECLINE,

(2) THE GAP BETWEEN RICH AND POOR CONTINUES TO GROW,

(3) MOST PEOPLE’S LIVING STANDARDS ARE NO LONGER RISING.

(4) THE FRUITS OF ECONOMIC EXPANSION ARE GRABBED BY THOSE WHO ALREADY HAVE THE MOST, I.E. THE RICH GET RICHER AND THE POOR GET POORER.

(5) THIS IS NOT TRICKLE DOWN ECONOMICS. IT IS TRICKLE UP ECONOMICS.

(6) AND THEN WE HAVE THE CLIMATE CRISIS AND THE DESTRUCTION OF THE LIVING WORLD. OUR STUDIES ARE CLEAR. THEY SHOW THAT A LINEAR FOSSIL FUEL BASED MODEL OF ECONOMIC GROWTH THAT RELIES ON UNSUSTAINABLE LEVELS OF CONSUMPTION AND PRODUCTION ARE DESTROYING THE ECOLOGICAL BUILDING BLOCKS ON WHICH OUR WELL BEING DEPENDS.

(8) WE FACE A TRIPLE PLANETARY CRISIS OF CLIMATE, NATURE, AND POLLUTION. OUR AIR, SOIL, AND WATER ARE CONTAMINATED. WE HAVE ALSO SEEN WHAT THE CONSUMPTION AND PRODUCTION OF MORE AND MORE STUFF HAS CAUSED.

(9) LET ME CITE SOME EXAMPLES OF WHAT THE CONSUMPTION AND PRODUCTION OF MORE AND MORE STUFF HAS CAUSED: 1. PLASTIC POLLUTION IN OUR OCEAN HAS INCREASED TEN FOLD SINCE 1980. UP TO 400 MILLION TONS OF INDUSTRIAL WASTE CONSISTING OF HEAVY METALS AND TOXIC SLUDGE ENTER THE OCEAN EVERY YEAR. THE DEVASTATING IRONY IS THAT DESPITE THIS HORRIFIC SIDE EFFECT ECONOMISTS HAVE TO KEEP EXPANDING TO KEEP THE SYSTEM FROM COLLAPSING.

(10) THE DEVASTATING IRONY IS THAT DESPITE THIS HORRIFIC SIDE EFFECT ECONOMIES HAVE TO KEEP EXPANDING TO KEEP THE SYSTEM FROM COLLAPSING. IN DOING SO WE END UP CONSUMING MORE RESOURCES AND CAUSING GREATER ECOLOGICAL HARM. THIS IS THE DILEMMA OF GROWTH.

(11) SO WHAT CAN WE DO ABOUT ALL THIS? HERE, BY THE WORD “WE” WE MEAN “HIGH INCOME COUNTRIES”. THE WORLD’S RICHEST COUNTRIES ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE HARM THAT WE SEE TODAY. THE WEALTHIEST 1% PRODUCE MORE THAN DOUBLE THE CARBON EMISSIONS OF THE POOREST 50%, ONE OF OUR RECENT REPORTS FOUND. IT ALSO FOUND THAT THE G20 COUNTRIES ACCOUNT FOR 78% OF ALL GLOBAL MISSIONS.

(12) THESE COUNTRIES HAVE A RESPONSIBILITY TO QUESTION THE THINKING AND SYSTEMS THAT LED US TO THIS POINT SO THAT THEY CAN BEGIN TO TRANSFORM THEIR ECONOMIES IN A WAY THAT GETS US OUT. BUT HOW??

(13) FIRST THEY WOULD HAVE TO STOP USING ECONOMIC GROWTH AS A MEASURE OF HUMAN WELL BEING. CAMBRIDGE ECONOMIST SIR PARTHA DASGUPTA AND HIS “ECONOMICS OF BIODIVERSITY” HOLD THAT GDP AS A MEASURE OF HUMAN WELL BEING IS FLAWED AND THAT GDP IS BASED ON A FAULTY APPLICATION OF ECONOMICS BECAUSE IT FAILS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DAMAGE DONE TO THE BIOSPHERE. EVEN THE ARCHITECTS OF GDP KNEW THAT IT WAS A POOR MEASURE OF HUMAN PROGRESS AND YET GDP GROWTH HAS BEEN THE PRIMARY INDICATOR AS OUR SUCCESS AS A SPECIES FOR DECADES. {for decades???}. …. the lecture continues in this vein….

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PARTHA DASGUPTA: THE ECONOMICS OF BIODIVERSITY

THE ECO WACKO ECONOMICS WISDOM OF PARTHA DASGUPTA

LINK TO THE VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bBkxTMS7ZxY

OUR LIFE IS “BUILT AROUND” NATURE BECAUSE WE ARE PART OF NATURE. WE ARE NOT EXTERNAL TO NATURE. NATURE PROVIDES US WITH CLEAN WATER. NATURE PROVIDES POLLINATION SERVICES FOR US TO GROW FOOD. IT CIRCULATES AIR, WATER, I CAN’T THINK OF ANYTHING THAT WE DO WHICH IS NOT FOUNDED ON NATURE’S PROCESSES. SO IF WE JEOPARDIZE THAT, IT’S NOT JUST OUR ECONOMIES THAT ARE IN TROUBLE. OUR LIVES ARE IN TROUBLE. THE DEMANDS WE MAKE OF THE GOODS AND SERVICES THAT NATURE PROVIDES US EXCEEDS ITS ABILITY TO SUPPLY THEM ON A SUSTAINABLE BASIS. SO FAR WE HAVE HAD A GOOD LIFE PARTICULARLY OUR GENERATION. WE HAVE NEVER HAD IT SO GOOD. WE LIVE LONGER, OUR NUMBERS ARE GROWING, WE ARE BETTER EDUCATED, WE ARE BETTER FED, WE TRAVE MORE. THE FLIP SIDE OF IT IS THAT WE ARE LIVING BEYOND OUR MEANS. BY THAT I MEAN THE GOOD LIFE WE ARE LIVING IS DEGRADING THE BIOSPHERE. OUR GOOD LIFE IS MAKING THE BIOSPHERE LESS HABITABLE AND LESS PRODUCTIVE. SO THE QUESTION IS THIS: WHY ARE OUR FINANCIAL SYSTEMS NOT TAKING NATURE INTO ACCOUNT? ECOSYSTEMS ARE ASSETS JUST AS OUR ROAD NETWORK AND EDUCATIONAL SYSTEM ARE ASSETS. SO OUR RELATIONSHIP WITH NATURE IS AN ASSET MANAGEMENT PROBLEM IN TERMS OF BALANCING THE VARIOUS TYPES OF ASSETS IN OUR PORTFOLIO – AND WE ARE MIS-MANAGING THAT. OUR FINANCIAL SYSTEMS DO NOT TAKE NATURE SERIOUSLY BECAUSE THE INFORMATION ON THE BASIS OF WHICH DECISIONS ARE MADE DOES NOT CONTAIN ENOUGH INFORMATION ABOUT NATURE.

FOR EXAMPLE, WE USE GDP AS A MEASURE OF THE SUCCESS OF HUMAN SOCIETIES BUT THAT MEASURE DOES NOT CONTAIN INFORMATION ABOUT WHAT WE ARE DOING TO NATURE.

THE LENS THROUGH WHICH OUR INSTITUTIONS SEE SOCIETY IS ONE WHICH DOES NOT NOTICE NATURE. KEEPING NATURE OUT OF THE FORMAL QUANTITATIVE MODELS OF FINANCE AND ECONOMICS THAT DRIVE POLICY MAKES IT POSSIBLE TO IMAGINE UNLIMITED GROWTH POSSIBILITIES IN OUR MATERIAL STANDARD OF LIVING. THAT CARRIES WITH IT THE THOUGHT THAT HUMANITY IS EXTERNAL TO NATURE WHEREAS WE ARE EMBEDDED AND SINCE NATURE IS BOUNDED AND FINITE IT MUST BE THAT THE IDEA OF UNLIMITED GROWTH IS FULLY FLAWED.

I THINK COVID19 DOES PRESENT AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RE-DIRCTING THE NATURE OF INVESTMENTS. WE NEED TO THINK BIG FOR TWO REASONS. ONE IS THAT GREENING OF OUR INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO BRINGS WITH IT EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES. AND SECONDLY, GREEN PROJECTS ARE COMPLEMENTARY TO ONE ANOTHER. EACH ON ITS OWN, A MILLION HERE AND A MILLION THERE, ALL ON ITS OWN IS NOT ANYWHERE PRODUCTIVE AS A BULK PROJECT IN GREEN INVESMENTS. SO THESE TWO FEATURES, EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES, AND PRODUCTIVITY GAINS BY SPENDING LARGE CHUNKS ON GREEN PROJECTS TOGETHER OFFER REAL LOW HANGING FRUIT.

THIS IMAGE IS USED IN WOKE ECONOMICS TO IMPLY THAT ECONOMICS THAT ISN’T ECO-WACKO CAN DESTROY THE PLANET

PARTHA SAYS REPEATEDLY THAT WE ARE PART OF NATURE AND NOT EXTERNAL TO NATURE BUT THE UNDERLYING THESIS OF HIS ECO WACKO ECONOMICS IS THAT HUMANS ARE THE CARETAKERS OF NATURE AND THAT OUR ROLE AS CARETAKER PLAYS A ROLE IN HOW WE CONSTRUCT OUR ECONOMIC SYSTEMS. THESE TWO VIEWS ARE A CONTRADICTION. IF WE ARE PART OF NATURE WE ARE NOT ITS CARETAKER AND THE BAMBI PRINCIPLE DOES NOT APPLY: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/15/the-bambi-principle/

Café Bambi - โพสต์ | Facebook

CRIITICAL COMMENTARY

ALTHOUGH MSUYA IS INTRODUCED AS “THE SPEAKER” WHAT WE SEE IN THE VIDEO AND IN HER RECITAL IS THAT SHE IS READING A SCRIPT. THE AUTHOR IS NOT IDENTIFIED BUT IS QUITE LIKELY TO BE SOMEONE FROM THE GRANTHAM INSTITUTE. THEREFORE, WE ASSUME THAT WHAT SHE HAS READ IS THE GRANTHAM INSTITUTE POSITION ON THESE ISSUES.

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CONCLUSION:

THE PRESENTATION BY THE GRANTHAM INSTITUTE MAKES THE CASE THAT CLIMATE CHANGE IS AN ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUE AND THAT OUR UNDERSTANDING OF FINANCE AND ECONOMICS IS INCOMPLETE AND DANGEROUSLY FLAWED WHEN ECONOMICS IS UNDERSTOOD IN THE ABSENCE OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONSIDERATIONS.

THIS ARGUMENT IMPLIES THAT CAPITALISM AS PRACTICED IS A DANGEROUS TOOL THAT IS SHORT TERM AND WITH ASSUMPTIONS THAT EXCLUDE NATURE. THE POINT OF THIS PRESENTATION IN THE CLIMATE CHANGE CONTEXT IS THE IMPLICATION THAT CLIMATE CHANGE IS A CREATIION OF CAPITALISM AND THAT THESE KINDS OF THINGS WILL CONTINUE TO HAPPEN IF WE DON’T FIX OUR ECONOMICS SYSTEM AND THAT WE CAN AND MUST FIX OUR ECONOMICS SYSTEM WITH AN ECO WACKO AGENDA INSERTED INTO ECONOMICS AND FINANCE TO INCLUDE NATURE AND THE PLANET BECAUSE WE ARE PART OF NATURE. THESE CHANGES TO OUR ECONOMICS SYSTEM ARE NEEDED SO THAT WE DON’T END UP DESTROYING THE PLANET.

YET WHAT WE SEE TODAY IS THAT EVEN AFTER MORE THAN 400 YEARS OF CAPITALISM AND MORE THAN A CENTURY OF CLASSICAL ECONOMICS WHAT WE FIND IN THE WORLD TODAY IS THAT THE HIGHEST QUALITY OF LIFE ON THE PLANET, LONELINESS OR NO, IS FOUND IN THESE SOCIETIES.

AS FOR THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE POPULATION, WEALTH, POWER, AND REACH OF HUMANS ON THIS PLANET IS NOW SO GREAT THAT THE PLANET HAS REACHED A NEW STATE CALLED THE ANTHROPOCENE WHERE THE WORLD’S NATURAL SYSTEMS ARE AT RISK OF BEING OVERWHELMED AND DESTROYED BY THE ENORMOUS REACH AND POWER OF THE HUMANS THAT NOW CONTOL PLANET, WE NOTE IN A RELATE POST THAT THIS HUMAN CONTROLLED STATE OF THE PLANET IS AN IMPOSSIBILITY.

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/03/30/the-humans-must-save-the-planet/

Bambi Turns 75! Take a Deeper Look at the Film's Impact on Animation, Risk  Taking and the Loss of a Parent

In terms of total weight, humans constitute 0.05212% of the total mass of life on earth. Yet we imagine that our numbers are so huge that the planet will be overwhelmed by our population bomb. All the life on earth taken together is 0.000002875065% of the crust of the planet by weight. The crust of the planet where we live and where we have things like land, ocean, atmosphere, climate, and carbon life forms, is 0.3203% of the planet by weight. The other 99.6797% of the planet, the mantle and core, is a place where we have never been and will never be and on which we have no impact whatsoever. In terms of the much feared element carbon that is said to cause planetary devastation by way of climate change and ocean acidification, a mass balance shows that the crust of the planet where we live contains 0.201% of the planet’s carbon some of which appear as carbon lifeforms such as humans. The other 99.8% of the carbon inventory of the planet is in the mantle and core. We conclude that: The crust of the planet where we live is an insignificant portion of the planet. Life on earth is an insignificant portion of the crust of the planet. Humans are an insignificant portion of life on earthbut with an ego that is bigger than the planet.
Although it is true that humans must take care of their environment, we propose that the environment should have a rational definition because the mass balance above does not show that humans are a significant force on a planetary scale or that they are in a position to either save it or to destroy it even with the much feared power of their fossil fueled industrial economy. And that implies that it is not possible that there is such a thing as an Anthropocene in which humans are the dominant geological force of the planet. Like ants and bees, humans are social creatures that live in communities of humans so that when they look around they see humans everywhere. This is the likely source of our human oriented view of the world. Paul Ehrlich’s overpopulation theory is derived from his first visit to India which he described as “people people people people people!” It is this biased view of the planet that makes it possible for us to extrapolate Calcutta to the planet and come up with the fearful image described by Jeff Gibbs as “Have you every wondered what would happen if a single species took over an entire planet?”

12 Most Crowded Places in India that Will Astonish You

IT SHOULD BE MENTIONED THAT ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS ARE NOT IGNORED IN OUR CURRENT ECONOMICS SYSTEM AS THEY ARE ADDRESSED NOT WITH ECONOMICS BUT WITH STRICTLY ENFORECED ENVIRONMENTAL LAWS. A CRITIQUE OF ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS BY WALTER WILLIAMS IS PRESENTED BELOW.

IN THE CONTEXT OF THESE ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATINS, WE PROPOSE THAT THE ENVIRONMENTALISM ARGUMENTS AGAINST CAPITALISM AND THE PROPOSITION THAT ENVIRONMENTALISM SHOULD BE INCORPORATED INTO ECONOMICS AND FINANCE, AND THE FURTHER IMPLICATION OF THESE RELATIONSHIPS THAT THE CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUE OF OUR TIME IS A CREATION OF ECONOMICS GONE WRONG BECAUSE IT HAD FAILED TO INCLUDE ENVIRONMENTALISM ARE BEST UNDERSTOOD AS ENVIRONMENTAL ACTIVISM THAT HAD EMBRACED CLIMATE CHANGE AS AN ENVIRONMENTAL CAUSE AND THAT NOW FINDS IT NECESSARY TO INTEGRATE THESE CONCERNS INTO FINANCE, ECONOMICS, AND CAPITALISM.

Woke Capitalism? Discussing Economics Walk n Talk - YouTube

THIS PHILOSPHICAL APPROACH TO ECONOMICS AND FINANCE AT GRANTHAM IS BEST UNDERSTOOD AS THE CREATION OF A POPULAR MOVEMENT CALLED WOKE ECONOMICS DESCRIBED IN VARIOUS ONLINE DOCUMENTS INCLUDING THIS ONE: LINK: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/07/cancel-culture-and-problem-woke-capitalism/614086/

EXCERPT: But that is, by and large, all they are. And that leads to what I call the “iron law of woke capitalism”: Brands will gravitate toward low-cost, high-noise signals as a substitute for genuine reform, to ensure their survival. (I’m not using the word woke here in a sneering, pejorative sense, but to highlight that the original definition of wokeness is incompatible with capitalism. Also, I’m not taking credit for the coinage: The writer Ross Douthat got there first.) In fact, let’s go further: Those with power inside institutions love splashy progressive gestures—solemn, monochrome social-media posts deploring racism; appointing their first woman to the board; firing low-level employees who attract online fury—because they help preserve their power. Those at the top—who are disproportionately white, male, wealthy, and highly educated—are not being asked to give up anything themselves.

Walter Williams RIP - Econlib
WALTER WILLIAMS

POSTSCRIPT: WALTER WLLIAMS JUNE 2003: ESSAY ON ECO WACKO WOKE ECONOMICS:

https://www.capitalismmagazine.com/2003/06/eco-nomics-what-everyone-should-know-about-economics-and-the-environment/

Disagreement with the world’s environmentalist wackos doesn’t mean that one is for dirty air and water, against conservation and for species extinction. Richard Stroup OF Montana State University explains common-sense approaches to environmental issues in his new book, “Eco-nomics: What Everyone Should Know About Economics and the Environment.” The first lesson of economics is that there’s scarcity.

California’s San Bernardino County was ready to build a new hospital until the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Department endangered flower-loving Delhi Sands fly on the site. The county had to spend $4.5 million to move the hospital 250 feet and to divert funds from its medical mission to pay for Delhi Sands fly studies. Was it worth it? On the benefit side, we have the survival of some Delhi Sand flies, but what about the cost side? How much pain and suffering and loss of human life was there? Millions of dollars were diverted from the hospital’s medical mission. Stroup’s analysis warns us that we must always attend to a regulation’s unanticipated side-effects. Environmental regulation has both beneficiaries and victims. The victims are often invisible. David Lucas owned shoreline property that the South Carolina government told him he couldn’t develop, even though his next-door neighbors developed their property. South Carolina’s regulation made his shoreline property virtually worthless. Lucas sued, and the U.S. Supreme Court forced the South Carolina government to pay him $1 million. Once the state was forced to pay Lucas $1 million, it changed its mind about the worth of keeping the shoreline undeveloped. In fact, it sold it to a developer. South Carolina’s actions demonstrate that incentives matter. Costs born by others will have less of an effect on our choices than when we bear them directly. Environmentalists love it when the government can force private citizens to bear the burden of their agenda, as opposed to requiring that government pay landowners for property losses due to one regulation or another. It’s cheaper, and that means government officials will more readily cave in to environmentalists’ demands. In other words, regulations that stop a landowner from using his land because of the red-cockaded woodpecker, or prevent a farmer from tilling his land because of an endangered mouse, or prevent a homeowner from building a firebreak to protect his home produce costs that are privately borne. If government had to compensate people for regulations that reduce the value of their property, more intelligent decisions would be made. Besides, if a particular measure will benefit the public, why should its cost be borne privately? Environmentalists go berserk whenever there’s talk of drilling for the tens of billions of dollars worth of oil in Alaska’s National Wildlife Refuge. Why? It doesn’t cost them anything. Here’s what I predict. If we gave environmentalists Alaska’s National Wildlife Refuge, you can bet your last dollar that there’d be oil drilling. Why? It would now cost them something to keep the oil in the ground. The Audubon Society owns the Rainey Preserve in Louisiana, a wildlife refuge. There’s oil and natural gas on its property, and it has allowed drilling for over half a century. Not allowing drilling, in the name of saving the environment, would have cost it millions of dollars in revenue. Stroup’s “Eco-nomics” is less than 100 pages long but contains powerful lessons for sensible approaches to the world’s environmental issues. Walter E. Williams is a professor of economics at George Mason University. In 1980, he joined the faculty of George Mason University in Fairfax, Va., and is currently the John M. Olin Distinguished Professor of Economics. He is also the author of Race and Economics: How Much Can Be Blamed on Discrimination? and Up from the Projects: An Autobiography. Williams participates in many debates and conferences, is a frequent public speaker and often gives testimony before both houses of Congress. This editorial was made available through Creator’s Syndicate.

When Economic Policy Gets Woke, People Get Hurt - Discourse

QUESTION: Among the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the United Nations, which is the most achievable?

ANSWER: The very poor need assistance to get out of poverty. Sustainability is an issue in rich and growing societies where the question is whether their growth and lifestyle can continue in the long run given environmental constraints. That numnut UN bureaucrats have inserted this issue in the UNDP’s mandate of relieving poverty implies only that UN bureaucrats are just bureaucrats who love fancy phrases and need to serve their own bureaucratic interests and not that there is some rational explanation for confusing the job of fighting poverty with that of sustainability of economic growth and prosperity. Details in the document linked below.

LINKTO RELATED POST O SDG: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/03/06/sdg/

EXCERPT: Implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) marks a shift in the priority of the UNDP from its primary purpose and function of tackling poverty to a UNEP and UNFCCC task of tackling climate change. This shift erodes the ability of the UNDP to perform its primary function of providing development assistance to poor countries and creates a vacuum in the United Nation’s poverty eradication program. We have learned from the poor performance of Cold-War-era development plans that combining the strategic interests of the donor (fighting communism) with the needs of the poor (economic and human development) do not mix. Yet, the SDG is just such a confounded and conflicted racist “White Man’s Burden” development program because it combines the strategic needs of the donor with respect to climate change with the most modest of needs of the very poor. From an SDG perspective, an important consideration is the environmental constraint on economic growth which holds that human development is not necessarily a good thing because it comes at the expense of environmental degradation, finite resource depletion, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and climate change. In this equation, optimality exists only when human development is constrained by environmental considerations. Imposition of these values of the rich North on the poor SOUTH is an egregious form of racism.

gambia
THESE ARE THE PEOPLE WHOSE RELIEF FROM POVERTY MUST BE CONSTRAINED BY SUSTAINABILITY ISSUES ACCORDING TO THE UNDP

Wind turbine manufacturing, Nantong, Jiangsu, China Stock Photo - Alamy

PART-1: THE UIGHUR ISSUE:

HERE WE PRESENT A CRITICAL EVALUATION OF THE CASE AGAINST THE CLIMATE CHANGE MOVEMENT IN THE FORM OF THE ARGUMENT THAT THE USE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY EQUIPMENT MADE IN CHINA IS UNACCEPTABLE BECAUSE THEY ARE MADE BY FORCED LABOR OF THE UIGHUR MUSLIMS SUCH THAT IT IS A CRIME AGAINST HUMANITY AND THAT USERS OF THESE EQUIPMENT ARE COMPLICIT IN THAT CRIME. THIS ARGUMENT AGAINST CLIMATE ACTION IS SEEN IN ONLINE POSTINGS AGAINST THE CLIMATE MOVEMENT.

SOME RELEVANT DETAILS ABOUT THE UIGHUR ISSUE.

IT IS A DIFFICULT AND COMPLEX SITUATION THAT IS TRACED BACK TO AN UPRISING OF THE UIGHURS AGAINST CHINESE SETTLERS IN XINJIANG PROVINCE IN WHICH HUNDREDS OF CHINESE WERE KILLED.

THE UIGHURS ARE TURKIC PEOPLE AND CHINA IS WORKING CLOSELY WITH TURKEY FOR A RESOLUTION OF THE UIGHUR ISSUE WHERE CHINA HAS CONSULTED NOT ONLY TURKEY BUT ALL MAJOR MUSLIM COUNTRIES IN THE REGION INCLUDING SAUDI ARABIA, IRAN, PAKISTN, BANGLADESH, AND MALAYSIA. THE ONLY HOLDOUT IS MALAYSIA AND THAT MAY HAVE SOMETHING TO DO WITH CERTAIN CLAIMS BY MALAYSIA IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.

IT’S COMPLICATED.

MAYBE THE WEST CAN HELP IN ITS RESOLUTION, BUT NOT BY PLAYING JUDGE AND JURY, NOT WITH A GOOD-GUY-BAD-GUY MODEL OF HUMAN BEHAVIOR, AND NOT WITH THE RACIST COLONIAL MENTALITY THAT THE WHITE MAN SHALL DECIDE WHAT’S GOOD FOR THE REST OF THE WORLD.

A POSITIVE CONTRIBUTION CAN BE MADE ONLY IN THE CONTEXT OF THE COMPLEXITY OF THIS ISSUE AND OF CHINA’S WIDESPREAD CONTACT AND COOPERATION WITH ITS MUSLIM NEIGHBORS. THE UN IS WORKING WITH CHINA IN AN INVESTIGATION OF THE CHARGE OF FORCED LABOR AND PERHAPS THAT WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE WEST TO MAKE A POSITIVE CONTRIBUTION IN THIS COMPLEX ISSUE.

FOR EXAMPLE, SHOULD CHINA CONSTRUCT ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH THE USA BASED ON THEIR DISAPPROVAL OF RACISM IN AMERICA? OR OF THINGS LIKE INCOME INEQUALITY? INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AND TRADE SHOULD NOT BE BASED ON THE ASSESSMENT OF WHETHER OTHER NATIONS CONFORM TO THE VALUE SYSTEM OF YOUR NATIONAL CULTURE.

Pakistan's silence on fasting ban for China Uighurs riles activists -  Nikkei Asia

GROWTH IN CHINA’S NUCLEAR ENERGY CAPACITY:

IN THE CONTEXT OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE CASE AGAINST FOSSIL FUELS, THOUGH THE WEST HAS PRIORITIZED WIND AND SOLAR WHAT WE FIND IN CHINA IS EXPLOSIVE GROWTH IN NUCLEAR ENERGY. HERE WE PRESENT A SUMMARY OF AN ARTICLE BY JAMES CONCA ON THIS ISSUE. LINK TO JAMES CONCA ARTICLE: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2021/04/23/china-will-lead-the-world-in-nuclear-energy-along-with-all-other-energy-sources-sooner-than-you-think/?sh=7a31bbf0778c

WHAT JAMES CONCA SAYS:

China now leads the world in total energy production and also produces almost twice the amount of electricity that the United States does, 4.4 trillion kWh versus 7.5 trillion kWh per year, respectively. As of this month, China has 49 nuclear reactors in operation with a capacity of 47.5 GW, third only to the United States and France. And 17 under construction with a capacity of 18.5 GW. None have been shut down. Nuclear provides only 2% of China’s electrical power now, but the country intends nuclear to eventually surpass all other sources. This is just about half of the nuclear capacity of the United States which has 94 nuclear reactors in operation with a capacity of 96.5 GW and 2 under construction with a capacity of 2.2 GW. But 39 reactors have been shutdown, many for no particularly good reason. Even so, nuclear provides 20% of America’s electrical power, and most of its non-fossil sources. China has previously drawn nuclear technology from France, Canada and Russia, but the latest technology acquisition has been from America via Westinghouse and France, and is now the main basis of nuclear technology development in China’s immediate future. It is the basis for China’s recent CAP1400 and CAP1000 domestic reactors.

The future will belong to China’s Hualong One and Two technologies, a domestically-developed third-generation reactor design. The first Hualong One unit started commercial operation on January 30th of this year.

Profiling the seven biggest nuclear power plants in China

A SAMPLE OF THE SUPPORT FOR CHINA BY ITS MUSLIM NEIGHBORS IN THE UIGHUR ISSUE

The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health – a Sobering New Report

QUESTION How is climate change impacting our health?

ANSWER: Note that the question is HOW is climate change impacting our health? Not WHETHER climate change is impacting our health. That part is subsumed into the question.

The climate change issue of our time has turned into an expression of the superstition and confirmation bias of humans that are very fundamentally how our brain works.

The evil of climate denialism must be understood as a control mechanism. It is sinful to disagree with climate scientists. We are tailor made to be suckers for this kind of fear mongering as a control mechanism. We are the puppets of the climate science puppet masters.

CLIMATE SCIENCE LOOKS A LOT LIKE SOME KIND OF CONTROL MECHANISM

Cartoon puppet Royalty Free Vector Image - VectorStock

If for nothing else we must get past this climate thing just to get our freedom back.

Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds: MacKay, Charles:  9781463740511: Amazon.com: Books

RELATED POSTS ON THIS SITE:

THE GREAT RESET: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/12/09/the-great-reset/

SUPERSTITION AND CONFIRMATION BIAS: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/03/confirmationbias/

POPULAR DELUSIONS AND THE MADNESSS OF CROWDS: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/04/30/charles-mackay/

Entangled Minds: Witch burning

Magazine All about Anthropocene – SGK-Planet

THIS POST IS A PRESENTATION OF HOLOCENE CLIMATE CHANGE EVENTS AS A CONTEXT FOR THE STUDY OF THE CURRENT WARMING CYCLE.

LINKS TO RELATED POSTS

POST#1 ON DATA SELECTION BIAS: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/10/09/a-data-selection-bias/

POST#2 ON DATA SELECTION BIAS: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/06/15/data-selection-bias/

POST ON HOLOCENE TEMPERATURE DYNAMICS: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/06/11/chaoticholocene/

In the Quaternary Ice Age in which we live, the earth is mostly {80% to 90% of the time} in a Glaciation state exhibiting glacial growth in the earlier portion and glacial retreat in the latter portion but with both processes exhibiting chaotic behavior such that glaciation is not a steady cooling period and deglaciation is not a steady warming period. Instead, both temperature trends of the glaciation cycle contain chaotic cycles of warming and cooling at centennial and millennial time scales with the difference being that there is a slight edge for cooling during glaciation and a slight edge for warming in deglaciation.

In between glaciation periods are brief deglaciated warm periods we call Interglacials. We are currently in the Holocene Interglacial. The previous Interglacial was the Eemian. In the Eemian interglacial we see that the chaotic back and forth cyclical and chaotic progress of the glaciation phase is also seen in the interglacial phase. Thus, in the Eemian interglacial we find a similarly violent state of cyclical climate oscillation between cold and hot periods. Thus the cyclical and violent changes of warming and and cooling seen in glaciation periods are also found in Interglacials. These  changes within Interglacials also occur at centennial and millennial time scales.

Similar cycles of cooling and warming are also found in the Holocene from its violent inception in the Younger Dryas event to the present. The Younger Dryas Event (YDE) shows that as soon as the Last Glacial Period had apparently ended, a series of brief but violent cycles of glaciation and deglaciation at centennial and millennial time scales intervened. The cooling period drove temperatures in Greenland down by 15C over a period of 300 years. Following that, a strong warming trend at a centennial time scale caused a warming of 17C and it seemed that the Holocene Interglacial warmth had finally arrived but the Holocene temperature chaos was not over yet.

About 9,000 years ago a strong cooling trend set in and persisted for 800 years. It is called the 8.2K cooling event because it ended 8,200 years ago. The Holocene interglacial recovered from the 8.2K cooling event and warmed to what is called “Holocene Climate Optimum” (HCO) or the “Mid Holocene Warming” (MHW) about 7000Y ago. The significance of this warming for us humans is that it is credited with the Neolithic Revolution that is thought to have created human civilization. It brought hunter gatherer humans out of the forests and caves and into a settled agricultural economy with farms and permanent homes, human society, and nation states, human innovations, and technology. Four other Holocene temperature events since the HCO are considered important in the climate history of the Holocene interglacial. These are the Bronze Age warm period ≈3000YBP, (also called the Minoan Warm Period (BAWP), the Roman warm period (RWP)≈2000YBP, the Medieval warm period (MWP) ≈1100YBP, and the Little Ice Age (LIA) ≈500YBP-100YBP.

The current warm period that followed the LIA is described as Anthropogenic {human caused} Global Warming (AGW) because it coincides with the Industrial Revolution when humans began to burn fossil fuels and therefore not a natural recovery from the LIA. This interpretation may derive from the other unique feature of the current warming cycle.

The current temperature cycle of the Holocene is the first temperature excursion of the Holocene where we find a unique new feature of the surface of the earth called “climate scientists” armed with a world view called “environmentalism”.

In this world view, everything bad is assumed to be a human impact that can and must be undone by identifying the human activity that COULD be causing the bad thing and then for humans to cease and desist from that anti nature activity. The key to understanding the logic of such environmentalism is the PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE which says in essence that we can’t prove we are right but you can’t take the chance that we are right. The precautionary principle is described in a related post: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/12/27/superstitious-humans/

This new world view of a human controlled planet, called the Anthropocene, implies that the warming cycles of the Holocene prior to the Anthropocene were natural but any temperature excursion in the Anthropocene must have been human caused and that therefore it is human controlled by definition and that therefore it can and must be moderated by humans to save the planet in the Anthropocene.

Yet, those who profess to understand interglacial temperature cycles as cause and effect phenomena should explain all of them in that way. That they picked just one of them to explain implies a BIAS in their methodology. That kind of science suffers from a fatal methodological error in the form of DATA SELECTION BIAS and CONFIRMATION BIAS.

What Is Confirmation Bias, Are You Blinded By It? - Ultimatemental models

THE ENDING 50,000 YEARS OF THE LAST GLACIATION CYCLE

RELATED POSTS ON THE ANTHROPOCENE

LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/12/07/the-holocene-is-the-anthropocene/

Some say climate change marks the Anthropocene, a new geological age.  They're wrong.

LINK#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/07/13/the-anthropocene-fallacy/

HOLOCENE TEMPERATURE CYCLES: A BIBLIOGRAPHY

  1. Denton, George H., and Wibjörn Karlén. “Holocene climatic variations—their pattern and possible cause.” Quaternary Research 3.2 (1973): 155-205. In the northeastern St. Elias Mountains in southern Yukon Territory and Alaska, C14-dated fluctuations of 14 glacier termini show two major intervals of Holocene glacier expansion, the older dating from 3300-2400 calendar yr BP and the younger corresponding to the Little Ice Age of the last several centuries. Both were about equivalent in magnitude. In addition, a less-extensive and short-lived advance occurred about 1250-1050 calendar yr BP (A.D. 700–900). Conversely, glacier recession, commonly accompanied by rise in altitude of spruce tree line, occurred 5975–6175, 4030-3300, 2400-1250, and 1050-460 calendar yr BP, and from A.D. 1920 to the present. Examination of worldwide Holocene glacier fluctuations reinforces this scheme and points to a third major interval of glacier advances about 5800-4900 calendar yrs BP; this interval generally was less intense than the two younger major intervals. Finally, detailed mapping and dating of Holocene moraines fronting 40 glaciers in the Kebnekaise and Sarek Mountains in Swedish Lapland reveals again that the Holocene was punctuated by repeated intervals of glacier expansion that correspond to those found in the St. Elias Mountains and elsewhere. The two youngest intervals, which occurred during the Little Ice Age and again about 2300–3000 calendar yrs BP, were approximately equal in intensity. Advances of the two older intervals, which occurred approximately 5000 and 8000 calendar yr BP, were generally less extensive. Minor glacier fluctuations were superimposed on all four broad expansion intervals; glacial expansions of the Little Ice Age culminated about A.D. 1500–1640, 1710, 1780, 1850, 1890, and 1916. In the mountains of Swedish Lapland, Holocene mean summer temperature rarely, if ever, was lower than 1°C below the 1931–1960 summer mean. Summer temperatures varied by less than 3.5°C over the last two broad intervals of Holocene glacial expansion and contraction. Viewed as a whole, therefore, the Holocene experienced alternating intervals of glacier expansion and contraction that probably were superimposed on the broad climatic trends recognized in pollen profiles and deep-sea cores. Expansion intervals lasted up to 900 yr and contraction intervals up to 1750 yr. Dates of glacial maxima indicate that the major Holocene intervals of expansion peaked at about 200–330, 2800, and 5300 calendar yr BP, suggesting a recurrence of major glacier activity about each 2500 yr. If projected further into the past, this Holocene pattern predicts that alternating glacier expansion-contraction intervals should have been superimposed on the Late-Wisconsin glaciation, with glacier readvances peaking about 7800, 10,300, 12,800, and 15,300 calendar yr BP. These major readvances should have been separated by intervals of general recession, some of which might have been punctuated by short-lived advances. Furthermore, the time scales of Holocene events and their Late-Wisconsin analogues should be comparable. Considering possible errors in C14 dating, this extended Holocene scheme agrees reasonably well with the chronology and magnitude of such Late-Wisconsin events as the Cochrane-Cockburn readvance (8000–8200 C14 yr BP), the Pre-Boreal interstadial, the Fennoscandian readvances during the Younger Dryas stadial (10,850-10,050 varve yr BP), the Alleröd interstadial (11,800-10,900 C14 yr BP), the Port Huron readvance (12,700–13,000 C14 yr BP), the Cary/Port Huron interstadial (centered about 13,300 C14 yr BP), and the Cary stadial (14,000–15,000 C14 yr BP). Moreover, comparison of presumed analogues such as the Little Ice Age and the Younger Dryas, or the Alleröd and the Roman Empire-Middle Ages warm interval, show marked similarities. These results suggest that a recurring pattern of minor climatic variations, with a dominant overprint of cold intervals peaking about each 2500 yr, was superimposed on long-term Holocene and Late-Wisconsin climatic trends. Should this pattern continue to repeat itself, the Little Ice Age will be succeeded within the next few centuries by a long interval of milder climates similar to those of the Roman Empire and Middle Ages. Short-term atmospheric C14 variations measured from tree rings correlate closely with Holocene glacier and tree-line fluctuations during the last 7000 yr. Such a correspondence, firstly, suggests that the record of short-term C14 variations may be an empirical indicator of paleoclimates and, secondly, points to a possible cause of Holocene climatic variations. The most prominent explanation of short-term C14 variations involves modulation of the galactic cosmic-ray flux by varying solar corpuscular activity. If this explanation proves valid and if the solar constant can be shown to vary with corpuscular output, it would suggest that Holocene glacier and climatic fluctuations, because of their close correlation with short-term C14 variations, were caused by varying solar activity. By extension, this would imply a similar cause for Late-Wisconsin climatic fluctuations such as the Alleröd and Younger Dryas.
  2. Hammer, Claus U., Henrik B. Clausen, and Willi Dansgaard. “Greenland ice sheet evidence of post-glacial volcanism and its climatic impact.” Nature 288.5788 (1980): 230. Acidity profiles along well dated Greenland ice cores reveal large volcanic eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere during the past 10,000 yr. Comparison with a temperature index shows that clustered eruptions have a considerable cooling effect on climate, which further complicates climatic predictions.
  3. O’Brien, S. R., (Mayewski). “Complexity of Holocene climate as reconstructed from a Greenland ice core.” Science 270.5244 (1995): 1962-1964.  Glaciochemical time series developed from Summit, Greenland, indicate that the chemical composition of the atmosphere was dynamic during the Holocene epoch. Concentrations of sea salt and terrestrial dusts increased in Summit snow during the periods 0 to 600, 2400 to 3100, 5000 to 6100, 7800 to 8800, and more than 11,300 years ago. The most recent increase, and also the most abrupt, coincides with the Little Ice Age. These changes imply that either the north polar vortex expanded or the meridional air flow intensified during these periods, and that temperatures in the mid to high northern latitudes were potentially the coldest since the Younger Dryas event.
  4. Angelakis, Andreas N., and Stylianos V. Spyridakis. “The status of water resources in Minoan times: A preliminary study.” Diachronic Climatic Impacts on Water Resources. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 1996. 161-191.A well-known passage in Homer’s Odyssey, probably based on an ancient ritual myth, tells the story of Demeter, the Greek corn-goddess and Iasion, the son of Zeus by Electra, daughter of Atlas. The latter was the guardian of the pillars of heaven (Odyssey, 1.53), the Titan who holds the sky up (Hesiod, Theogony, 517) and is, thereby, identified with water and rainfall. [FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD .
  5. Alley, Richard B., (Mayewski)  “Holocene climatic instability: A prominent, widespread event 8200 yr ago.” Geology 25.6 (1997): 483-486.  The most prominent Holocene climatic event in Greenland ice-core proxies, with approximately half the amplitude of the Younger Dryas, occurred ∼8000 to 8400 yr ago. This Holocene event affected regions well beyond the North Atlantic basin, as shown by synchronous increases in windblown chemical indicators together with a significant decrease in methane. Widespread proxy records from the tropics to the north polar regions show a short-lived cool, dry, or windy event of similar age. The spatial pattern of terrestrial and marine changes is similar to that of the Younger Dryas event, suggesting a role for North Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Possible forcings identified thus far for this Holocene event are small, consistent with recent model results indicating high sensitivity and strong linkages in the climatic system.
  6. Bond, Gerard, et al. “A pervasive millennial-scale cycle in North Atlantic Holocene and glacial climates.” science278.5341 (1997): 1257-1266.  Evidence from North Atlantic deep sea cores reveals that abrupt shifts punctuated what is conventionally thought to have been a relatively stable Holocene climate. During each of these episodes, cool, ice-bearing waters from north of Iceland were advected as far south as the latitude of Britain. At about the same times, the atmospheric circulation above Greenland changed abruptly. Pacings of the Holocene events and of abrupt climate shifts during the last glaciation are statistically the same; together, they make up a series of climate shifts with a cyclicity close to 1470 ± 500 years. The Holocene events, therefore, appear to be the most recent manifestation of a pervasive millennial-scale climate cycle operating independently of the glacial-interglacial climate state. Amplification of the cycle during the last glaciation may have been linked to the North Atlantic’s thermohaline circulation.
  7. Roberts, Neil, et al. “The age and causes of Mid-Late Holocene environmental change in southwest Turkey.” Third Millennium BC climate change and old world collapse. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 1997. 409-429.  Proxy records such as lake sediment sequences provide important data on abrupt environmental changes in the past, but establishing their specific causes from the palaeoenvironmental record can be problematic. Pollen diagrams from southwest Turkey show a mid-late Holocene pollen assemblage zone, designated as the Beyşehir Occupation phase, the onset of which has been 14C dated to ca. 3000 BP (ca. 1250 BC). A second millennium BC date for the start of the Beyşehir Occupation phase can now be confirmed as a result of the discovery of volcanic tephra from the Minoan eruption of Santorini (Thera) in lake sediment cores from the region. Palaeoecological analyses on sediment cores from Gölhisar gölü, a shallow montane lake, indicate that tephra deposition was followed by a sustained response in the aquatic ecosystem, in the form of increased algal productivity. The onset of pollen changes marking the beginning of the Beyşehir Occupation phase was not, on the other hand, precisely coincident with the tephra layer, but rather occurred at least a century later at this site. Despite the paucity of archaeological evidence for Late Bronze Age settlement in the Oro-Mediterranean region of southwest Turkey, it would appear that the second millennium BC saw the start of a period of major human impact on the landscape which continued until the late first millennium AD. The Santorini ash represents an important time-synchronous, stratigraphic marker horizon, but does not appear to have been the immediate cause of the onset of the Beyş ehir Occupation phase.
  8. Bond, Gerard, et al. “Persistent solar influence on North Atlantic climate during the Holocene.” science 294.5549 (2001): 2130-2136.  Surface winds and surface ocean hydrography in the subpolar North Atlantic appear to have been influenced by variations in solar output through the entire Holocene. The evidence comes from a close correlation between inferred changes in production rates of the cosmogenic nuclides carbon-14 and beryllium-10 and centennial to millennial time scale changes in proxies of drift ice measured in deep-sea sediment cores. A solar forcing mechanism therefore may underlie at least the Holocene segment of the North Atlantic’s “1500-year” cycle. The surface hydrographic changes may have affected production of North Atlantic Deep Water, potentially providing an additional mechanism for amplifying the solar signals and transmitting them globally.
  9. Stenni, Barbara, et al. “Eight centuries of volcanic signal and climate change at Talos Dome (East Antarctica).” Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 107.D9 (2002): ACL-3.  During the 1996 Programma Nazionale di Ricerche in Antartide‐International Trans‐Antarctic Scientific Expedition traverse, two firn cores were retrieved from the Talos Dome area (East Antarctica) at elevations of 2316 m (TD, 89 m long) and 2246 m (ST556, 19 m long). Cores were dated by using seasonal variations in non‐sea‐salt (nss) SO42− concentrations coupled with the recognition of tritium marker level (1965–1966) and nss SO42− spikes due to the most important volcanic events in the past (Pinatubo 1991, Agung 1963, Krakatoa 1883, Tambora 1815, Kuwae 1452, Unknown 1259). The number of annual layers recognized in the TD and ST556 cores was 779 and 97, respectively. The δD record obtained from the TD core has been compared with other East Antarctic isotope ice core records (Dome C EPICA, South Pole, Taylor Dome). These records suggest cooler climate conditions between the middle of 16th and the beginning of 19th centuries, which might be related to the Little Ice Age (LIA) cold period. Because of the high degree of geographical variability, the strongest LIA cooling was not temporally synchronous over East Antarctica, and the analyzed records do not provide a coherent picture for East Antarctica. The accumulation rate record presented for the TD core shows a decrease during part of the LIA followed by an increment of about 11% in accumulation during the 20th century. At the ST556 site, the accumulation rate observed during the 20th century was quite stable.
  10. Mayewski, Paul A. (aka Ice Man). “Holocene climate variability.” Quaternary research 62.3 (2004): 243-255. Although the dramatic climate disruptions of the last glacial period have received considerable attention, relatively little has been directed toward climate variability in the Holocene (11,500 cal yr B.P. to the present). Examination of 50 globally distributed paleoclimate records reveals as many as six periods of significant rapid climate change during the time periods 9000″8000, 6000″5000, 4200″3800, 3500″2500, 1200″1000, and 600″150 cal yr B.P. Most of the climate change events in these globally distributed records are characterized by polar cooling, tropical aridity, and major atmospheric circulation changes, although in the most recent interval (600″150 cal yr B.P.), polar cooling was accompanied by increased moisture in some parts of the tropics. Several intervals coincide with major disruptions of civilization, illustrating the human significance of Holocene climate variability.
  11. Magny, Michel. “Holocene climate variability as reflected by mid-European lake-level fluctuations and its probable impact on prehistoric human settlements.” Quaternary international113.1 (2004): 65-79.  A data set of 180 radiocarbon, tree-ring and archaeological dates obtained from sediment sequences of 26 lakes in the Jura mountains, the northern French Pre-Alps and the Swiss Plateau was used to construct a Holocene mid-European lake-level record. The dates do not indicate a random distribution over the Holocene, but form clusters suggesting an alternation of lower and higher, climatically driven lake-level phases. They provide evidence of a rather unstable Holocene climate punctuated by 15 phases of higher lake-level: 11 250–11 050, 10 300–10 000, 9550–9150, 8300–8050, 7550–7250, 6350–5900, 5650–5200, 4850–4800, 4150–3950, 3500–3100, 2750–2350, 1800–1700, 1300–1100, 750–650 cal. BP and after 1394 AD. A comparison of this mid-European lake-level record with the GISP2-Polar Circulation Index (PCI) record, the North Atlantic ice-rafting debris (IRD) events and the 14C record suggests teleconnections in a complex cryosphere-ocean-atmosphere system. Correlations between the GISP2-PCI, the mid-European lake-level, the North Atlantic IRD, and the residual 14C records, suggest that changes in the solar activity played a major role in Holocene climate oscillations over the North Atlantic area.
  12. Alley, Richard B., and Anna Maria Ágústsdóttir. “The 8k event: cause and consequences of a major Holocene abrupt climate change.” Quaternary Science Reviews 24.10-11 (2005): 1123-1149.  A prominent, abrupt climate event about 8200 years ago brought generally cold and dry conditions to broad northern-hemisphere regions especially in wintertime, in response to a very large outburst flood that freshened the North Atlantic. Changes were much larger than typical climate variability before and after the event, with anomalies up to many degrees contributing to major displacement of vegetative patterns. This “8k” event provides a clear case of cause and effect in the paleoclimatic realm, and so offers an excellent opportunity for model testing. The response to North Atlantic freshening has the same general anomaly pattern as observed for older events associated with abrupt climate changes following North Atlantic freshening, and so greatly strengthens the case that those older events also reflect North Atlantic changes. The North Atlantic involvement in the 8k event helps in estimating limits on climate anomalies that might result in the future if warming-caused ice-melt and hydrologic-cycle intensification at high latitudes lead to major changes in North Atlantic circulation. Few model experiments have directly addressed the 8k event, and most studies of proxy records across this event lack the time resolution to fully characterize the anomalies, so much work remains to be done.
  13. Chew, Sing C. “From Harappa to Mesopotamia and Egypt to Mycenae: Dark Ages, Political-Economic Declines, and Environmental/Climatic Changes 2200 BC–700 BC.” The Historical Evolution of World-Systems. Palgrave Macmillan, New York, 2005. 52-74.  Considerations of hegemonic decline as a world historical process most often attempt to account for decline and collapse of complex institutions in terms of social, political, and economic processes (Gills and Frank 1992). As we increasingly question whether there are physical–environmental limits that would affect the reproduction of world-systems, political, economic, and social dimensions might not be sufficient to account for hegemonic declines. Consideration of environmental and climatological factors needs to be combined with socioeconomic relations in our understanding of hegemonic declines and shifts. This approach assumes that the humans seek to transform nature in an expansive manner, and ceaselessly amass surpluses. There are certain long periods in world history that exhibit large economic and social crises and hegemonic decline. Such long periods of economic and social distress are here termed dark ages.
  14. Gorokhovich, Yuri. “Abandonment of Minoan palaces on Crete in relation to the earthquake induced changes in groundwater supply.” Journal of Archaeological Science 32.2 (2005): 217-222. Mysterious abandonment of palaces on Crete during the Late Minoan period was always a challenging problem for archeologists and geologists. Various hypotheses explained this event by effects of tsunamis, earthquakes or climatic changes that were caused by the volcanic eruption of the Santorini volcano. While each of them or their possible combination contributed to the abandonment of palaces and following Late Minoan crisis, there is another possible cause that appeared as a result of studies within the last 20–30 years. This cause is depletion of groundwater supply caused by persistent earthquake activity that took place during the Bronze Age. This explanation is supported by field observations and numerous studies of similar phenomena in other locations.
  15. Wanner, Heinz, et al. heinzWanner“Mid-to Late Holocene climate change: an overview.” Quaternary Science Reviews 27.19-20 (2008): 1791-1828.  The last 6000 years are of particular interest to the understanding of the Earth System because the boundary conditions of the climate system did not change dramatically (in comparison to larger glacial–interglacial changes), and because abundant, detailed regional palaeoclimatic proxy records cover this period. We use selected proxy-based reconstructions of different climate variables, together with state-of-the-art time series of natural forcings (orbital variations, solar activity variations, large tropical volcanic eruptions, land cover and greenhouse gases), underpinned by results from General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs), to establish a comprehensive explanatory framework for climate changes from the Mid-Holocene (MH) to pre-industrial time. The redistribution of solar energy, due to orbital forcing on a millennial timescale, was the cause of a progressive southward shift of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). This was accompanied by a pronounced weakening of the monsoon systems in Africa and Asia and increasing dryness and desertification on both continents. The associated summertime cooling of the NH, combined with changing temperature gradients in the world oceans, likely led to an increasing amplitude of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and, possibly, increasingly negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices up to the beginning of the last millennium. On decadal to multi-century timescales, a worldwide coincidence between solar irradiance minima, tropical volcanic eruptions and decadal to multi-century scale cooling events was not found. However, reconstructions show that widespread decadal to multi-century scale cooling events, accompanied by advances of mountain glaciers, occurred in the NH (e.g., in Scandinavia and the European Alps). This occurred namely during the Little Ice Age (LIA) between AD ∼1350 and 1850, when the lower summer insolation in the NH, due to orbital forcing, coincided with solar activity minima and several strong tropical volcanic eruptions. The role of orbital forcing in the NH cooling, the southward ITCZ shift and the desertification of the Sahara are supported by numerous model simulations. Other simulations have suggested that the fingerprint of solar activity variations should be strongest in the tropics, but there is also evidence that changes in the ocean heat transport took place during the LIA at high northern latitudes, with possible additional implications for climates of the Southern Hemisphere (SH).
  16. ? Scafetta, Nicola. “Empirical evidence for a celestial origin of the climate oscillations and its implications.” Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 72.13 (2010): 951-970.  We investigate whether or not the decadal and multi-decadal climate oscillations have an astronomical origin. Several global surface temperature records since 1850 and records deduced from the orbits of the planets present very similar power spectra. Eleven frequencies with period between 5 and 100 years closely correspond in the two records. Among them, large climate oscillations with peak-to-trough amplitude of about 0.1 and 0.25°C, and periods of about 20 and 60 years, respectively, are synchronized to the orbital periods of Jupiter and Saturn. Schwabe and Hale solar cycles are also visible in the temperature records. A 9.1-year cycle is synchronized to the Moon’s orbital cycles. A phenomenological model based on these astronomical cycles can be used to well reconstruct the temperature oscillations since 1850 and to make partial forecasts for the 21st century. It is found that at least 60% of the global warming observed since 1970 has been induced by the combined effect of the above natural climate oscillations. The partial forecast indicates that climate may stabilize or cool until 2030–2040. Possible physical mechanisms are qualitatively discussed with an emphasis on the phenomenon of collective synchronization of coupled oscillators.
  17. Tsonis, A. A., et al. “Climate change and the demise of Minoan civilization.” Climate of the Past 6.4 (2010): 525-530.  Climate change has been implicated in the success and downfall of several ancient civilizations. Here we present a synthesis of historical, climatic, and geological evidence that supports the hypothesis that climate change may have been responsible for the slow demise of Minoan civilization. Using proxy ENSO and precipitation reconstruction data in the period 1650–1980 we present empirical and quantitative evidence that El Nino causes drier conditions in the area of Crete. This result is supported by modern data analysis as well as by model simulations. Though not very strong, the ENSO-Mediterranean drying signal appears to be robust, and its overall effect was accentuated by a series of unusually strong and long-lasting El Nino events during the time of the Minoan decline. Indeed, a change in the dynamics of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system occurred around 3000 BC, which culminated in a series of strong and frequent El Nino events starting at about 1450 BC and lasting for several centuries. This stressful climatic trend, associated with the gradual demise of the Minoans, is argued to be an important force acting in the downfall of this classic and long-lived civilization.  FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD
  18. Wanner, Heinz, et al. “Structure and origin of Holocene cold events.” Quaternary Science Reviews 30.21-22 (2011): 3109-3123. The present interglacial, the Holocene, spans the period of the last 11,700 years. It has sustained the growth and development of modern society. The millennial-scale decreasing solar insolation in the Northern Hemisphere summer lead to Northern Hemisphere cooling, a southern shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and a weakening of the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon systems. On the multidecadal to multicentury-scale, periods of more stable and warmer climate were interrupted by several cold relapses, at least in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical area. Based on carefully selected 10,000-year-long time series of temperature and humidity/precipitation, as well as reconstructions of glacier advances, the spatiotemporal pattern of six cold relapses during the last 10,000 years was analysed and presented in form of a Holocene Climate Atlas (HOCLAT; see http://www.oeschger.unibe.ch/research/projects/holocene_atlas/). A clear cyclicity was not found, and the spatiotemporal variability of temperature and humidity/precipitation during the six specific cold events (8200, 6300, 4700, 2700, 1550 and 550 years BP) was very high. Different dynamical processes such as meltwater flux into the North Atlantic, low solar activity, explosive volcanic eruptions, and fluctuations of the thermohaline circulation likely played a major role. In addition, internal dynamics in the North Atlantic and Pacific area (including their complex interaction) were likely involved. AUTHOR’S NOTES: {Based on temperature, humidity and glacier data, we analyze Holocene cold events. During the Holocene a clear cyclicity between warm and cold periods was not found.  Single cold relapses are subject to different dynamical processes. The six analyzed cold events show different spatial structures.}
  19. Humlum, Ole, Jan-Erik Solheim, and Kjell Stordahl. “Identifying natural contributions to late Holocene climate change.” Global and Planetary Change 79.1-2 (2011): 145-156.  Analytic climate models have provided the means to predict potential impacts on future climate by anthropogenic changes in atmospheric composition. However, future climate development will not only be influenced by anthropogenic changes, but also by natural variations. The knowledge on such natural variations and their detailed character, however, still remains incomplete. Here we present a new technique to identify the character of natural climate variations, and from this, to produce testable forecast of future climate. By means of Fourier and wavelet analyses climate series are decomposed into time–frequency space, to extract information on periodic signals embedded in the data series and their amplitude and variation over time. We chose to exemplify the potential of this technique by analysing two climate series, the Svalbard (78°N) surface air temperature series 1912–2010, and the last 4000 years of the reconstructed GISP2 surface temperature series from central Greenland. By this we are able to identify several cyclic climate variations which appear persistent on the time scales investigated. Finally, we demonstrate how such persistent natural variations can be used for hindcasting and forecasting climate. Our main focus is on identifying the character (timing, period, amplitude) of such recurrent natural climate variations, but we also comment on the likely physical explanations for some of the identified cyclic climate variations. The causes of millennial climate changes remain poorly understood, and this issue remains important for understanding causes for natural climate variability over decadal- and decennial time scales. We argue that Fourier and wavelet approaches like ours may contribute towards improved understanding of the role of such recurrent natural climate variations in the future climate development.
  20. Drake, Brandon L. “The influence of climatic change on the Late Bronze Age Collapse and the Greek Dark Ages.” Journal of Archaeological Science 39.6 (2012): 1862-1870.  Between the 13th and 11th centuries BCE, most Greek Bronze Age Palatial centers were destroyed and/or abandoned. The following centuries were typified by low population levels. Data from oxygen-isotope speleothems, stable carbon isotopes, alkenone-derived seasurface temperatures, and changes in warm-species dinocysts and formanifera in the Mediterranean indicate that the Early Iron Age was more arid than the preceding Bronze Age. A sharp increase in Northern Hemisphere temperatures preceded the collapse of Palatial centers, a sharp decrease occurred during their abandonment. Mediterranean Seasurface temperatures cooled rapidly during the Late Bronze Age, limiting freshwater flux into the atmosphere and thus reducing precipitation over land. These climatic changes could have affected Palatial centers that were dependent upon high levels of agricultural productivity. Declines in agricultural production would have made higher-density populations in Palatial centers unsustainable. The ‘Greek Dark Ages’ that followed occurred during prolonged arid conditions that lasted until the Roman Warm Period.

CHAOS THEORY IN CLIMATE SCIENCE: A BIBLIOGRAPHY

  1. Zeng, Xubin, Roger A. Pielke, and R. Eykholt. “Chaos theory and its applications to the atmosphere.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 74.4 (1993): 631-644.  A brief overview of chaos theory is presented, including bifurcations, routes to turbulence, and methods for characterizing chaos. The paper divides chaos applications in atmospheric sciences into three categories: new ideas and insights inspired by chaos, analysis of observational data, and analysis of output from numerical models. Based on the review of chaos theory and the classification of chaos applications, suggestions for future work are given.
  2. Marotzke, Jochem. “Abrupt climate change and thermohaline circulation: Mechanisms and predictability.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 97.4 (2000): 1347-1350.  The ocean’s thermohaline circulation has long been recognized as potentially unstable and has consequently been invoked as a potential cause of abrupt climate change on all timescales of decades and longer. However, fundamental aspects of thermohaline circulation changes remain poorly understood. [LINK TO FULL TEXT PDF]
  3. Rial, Jose A., and C. A. Anaclerio. “Understanding nonlinear responses of the climate system to orbital forcing.” Quaternary Science Reviews 19.17-18 (2000): 1709-1722.  Frequency modulation (FM) of the orbital eccentricity forcing may be one important source of the nonlinearities observed in δ18O time series from deep-sea sediment cores (J.H. Rial (1999a) Pacemaking the lce Ages by frequency modulation of Earth’s orbital eccentricity. Science 285, 564–568). Here we present further evidence of frequency modulation found in data from the Vostok ice core. Analyses of the 430,000-year long, orbitally untuned, time series of CO2, deuterium, aerosol and methane, suggest frequency modulation of the 41 kyr (0.0244 kyr−1) obliquity forcing by the 413 kyr-eccentricity signal and its harmonics. Conventional and higher-order spectral analyses show that two distinct spectral peaks at ∼29 kyr (0.034 kyr−1) and ∼69 kyr (0.014 kyr−1) and other, smaller peaks surrounding the 41 kyr obliquity peak are harmonically (nonlinearly) related and likely to be FM-generated sidebands of the obliquity signal. All peaks can be closely matched by the spectrum of an appropriately built theoretical FM signal. A preliminary model, based on the classic logistic growth delay differential equation, reproduces the longer period FM effect and the familiar multiply peaked spectra of the eccentricity band. Since the FM effect appears to be a common feature in climate response, finding out its cause may help understand climate dynamics and global climate change.
  4. Ashkenazy, Yosef, et al. “Nonlinearity and multifractality of climate change in the past 420,000 years.” Geophysical research letters 30.22 (2003).  Evidence of past climate variations are stored in polar ice caps and indicate glacial‐interglacial cycles of ∼100 kyr. Using advanced scaling techniques we study the long‐range correlation properties of temperature proxy records of four ice cores from Antarctica and Greenland. These series are long‐range correlated in the time scales of 1–100 kyr. We show that these time series are nonlinear for time scales of 1–100 kyr as expressed by temporal long‐range correlations of magnitudes of temperature increments and by a broad multifractal spectrum. Our results suggest that temperature increments appear in clusters of big and small increments—a big (positive or negative) climate change is most likely followed by a big (positive or negative) climate change and a small climate change is most likely followed by a small climate change.
  5. Rial, Jose A. “Abrupt climate change: chaos and order at orbital and millennial scales.” Global and Planetary Change 41.2 (2004): 95-109.  Successful prediction of future global climate is critically dependent on understanding its complex history, some of which is displayed in paleoclimate time series extracted from deep-sea sediment and ice cores. These recordings exhibit frequent episodes of abrupt climate change believed to be the result of nonlinear response of the climate system to internal or external forcing, yet, neither the physical mechanisms nor the nature of the nonlinearities involved are well understood. At the orbital (104–105 years) and millennial scales, abrupt climate change appears as sudden, rapid warming events, each followed by periods of slow cooling. The sequence often forms a distinctive saw-tooth shaped time series, epitomized by the deep-sea records of the last million years and the Dansgaard–Oeschger (D/O) oscillations of the last glacial. Here I introduce a simplified mathematical model consisting of a novel arrangement of coupled nonlinear differential equations that appears to capture some important physics of climate change at Milankovitch and millennial scales, closely reproducing the saw-tooth shape of the deep-sea sediment and ice core time series, the relatively abrupt mid-Pleistocene climate switch, and the intriguing D/O oscillations. Named LODE for its use of the logistic-delayed differential equation, the model combines simplicity in the formulation (two equations, small number of adjustable parameters) and sufficient complexity in the dynamics (infinite-dimensional nonlinear delay differential equation) to accurately simulate details of climate change other simplified models cannot. Close agreement with available data suggests that the D/O oscillations are frequency modulated by the third harmonic of the precession forcing, and by the precession itself, but the entrained response is intermittent, mixed with intervals of noise, which corresponds well with the idea that the climate operates at the edge between chaos and order. LODE also predicts a persistent ∼1.5 ky oscillation that results from the frequency modulated regional climate oscillation.
  6. Huybers, Peter, and Carl Wunsch. “Obliquity pacing of the late Pleistocene glacial terminations.” Nature 434.7032 (2005): 491.  The 100,000-year timescale in the glacial/interglacial cycles of the late Pleistocene epoch (the past ∼700,000 years) is commonly attributed to control by variations in the Earth’s orbit1. This hypothesis has inspired models that depend on the Earth’s obliquity (∼ 40,000 yr; ∼40 kyr), orbital eccentricity (∼ 100 kyr) and precessional (∼ 20 kyr) fluctuations2,3,4,5, with the emphasis usually on eccentricity and precessional forcing. According to a contrasting hypothesis, the glacial cycles arise primarily because of random internal climate variability6,7,8. Taking these two perspectives together, there are currently more than thirty different models of the seven late-Pleistocene glacial cycles9. Here we present a statistical test of the orbital forcing hypothesis, focusing on the rapid deglaciation events known as terminations10,11. According to our analysis, the null hypothesis that glacial terminations are independent of obliquity can be rejected at the 5% significance level, whereas the corresponding null hypotheses for eccentricity and precession cannot be rejected. The simplest inference consistent with the test results is that the ice sheets terminated every second or third obliquity cycle at times of high obliquity, similar to the original proposal by Milankovitch12. We also present simple stochastic and deterministic models that describe the timing of the late-Pleistocene glacial terminations purely in terms of obliquity forcing.
  7. Tziperman, Eli, Carl Wunsch. “Consequences of pacing the Pleistocene 100 kyr ice ages by nonlinear phase locking to Milankovitch forcing.” Paleoceanography 21.4 (2006).:    The consequences of the hypothesis that Milankovitch forcing affects the phase (e.g., termination times) of the 100 kyr glacial cycles via a mechanism known as “nonlinear phase locking” are examined. Phase locking provides a mechanism by which Milankovitch forcing can act as the “pacemaker” of the glacial cycles. Nonlinear phase locking can determine the timing of the major deglaciations, nearly independently of the specific mechanism or model that is responsible for these cycles as long as this mechanism is suitably nonlinear. A consequence of this is that the fit of a certain model output to the observed ice volume record cannot be used as an indication that the glacial mechanism in this model is necessarily correct. Phase locking to obliquity and possibly precession variations is distinct from mechanisms relying on a linear or nonlinear amplification of the eccentricity forcing. Nonlinear phase locking may determine the phase of the glacial cycles even in the presence of noise in the climate system and can be effective at setting glacial termination times even when the precession and obliquity bands account only for a small portion of the total power of an ice volume record. Nonlinear phase locking can also result in the observed “quantization” of the glacial period into multiples of the obliquity or precession periods.
  8. Eisenman, Ian, Norbert Untersteiner, and J. S. Wettlaufer. “On the reliability of simulated Arctic sea ice in global climate models.” Geophysical Research Letters 34.10 (2007).  While most of the global climate models (GCMs) currently being evaluated for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report simulate present‐day Arctic sea ice in reasonably good agreement with observations, the intermodel differences in simulated Arctic cloud cover are large and produce significant differences in downwelling longwave radiation. Using the standard thermodynamic models of sea ice, we find that the GCM‐generated spread in longwave radiation produces equilibrium ice thicknesses that range from 1 to more than 10 meters. However, equilibrium ice thickness is an extremely sensitive function of the ice albedo, allowing errors in simulated cloud cover to be compensated by tuning of the ice albedo. This analysis suggests that the results of current GCMs cannot be relied upon at face value for credible predictions of future Arctic sea ice.
  9. Frank, Patrick, and John McCarthy. “A climate of belief.” Skeptic 14.1 (2008): 22-30. The claim that anthropogenic CO2 is responsible for the current warming of Earth climate is scientifically insupportable because climate models are unreliable by Patrick Frank “He who refuses to do arithmetic is doomed to talk nonsense.” — John McCarthy “The latest scientific data confirm that the earth’s climate is rapidly changing. … The cause? A thickening layer of carbon dioxide pollution, mostly from power plants and automobiles, that traps heat in the atmosphere. … *A+verage U.S. temperatures could rise another 3 to 9 degrees by the end of the century … Sea levels will rise, *and h+eat waves will be more frequent and more intense. Droughts and wildfires will occur more often. Disease-carrying mosquitoes will expand their range. And species will be pushed to extinction.” So says the National Resources Defense Council,2 with agreement by the Sierra Club,3 Greenpeace,4 National Geographic,5 the US National Academy of Sciences,6 and the US Congressional House leadership.7 Concurrent views are widespread,8 as a visit to the internet or any good bookstore will verify. Since at least the 1995 Second Assessment Report, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been making increasingly assured statements that human-produced carbon dioxide (CO2) is influencing the climate, and is the chief cause of the global warming trend in evidence since about 1900. The current level of atmospheric CO2 is about 390 parts per million by volume (ppmv), or 0.039% by volume of the atmosphere, and in 1900 was about 295 ppmv. If the 20th century trend continues unabated, by about 2050 atmospheric CO2 will have doubled to about 600 ppmv. This is the basis for the usual “doubled CO2” scenario. Doubled CO2 is a bench-mark for climate scientists in evaluating greenhouse warming. Earth receives about 342 watts per square meter (W/m2 ) of incoming solar energy, and all of this energy eventually finds its way back out into space. However, CO2 and other greenhouse gasses, most notably water vapor, absorb some of the outgoing energy and warm the atmosphere. This is the greenhouse effect. Without it Earth’s average surface temperature would be a frigid -19°C (-2.2 F). With it, the surface warms to about +14°C (57 F) overall, making Earth habitable.9 With more CO2, more outgoing radiant energy is absorbed, changing the thermal dynamics of
    the atmosphere. All the extra greenhouse gasses that have entered the atmosphere since 1900, including CO2, equate to an extra 2.7 W/m2 of energy absorption by the atmosphere.10 This is the worrisome greenhouse effect. On February 2, 2007, the IPCC released the Working Group I (WGI) “Summary for Policymakers” (SPM) report on Earth climate,11 which is an executive summary of the science supporting the predictions quoted above. The full “Fourth Assessment Report” (4AR) came out in sections during 2007.  [LINK TO FULL TEXT PDF]
  10. Huybers, Peter John. “Pleistocene glacial variability as a chaotic response to obliquity forcing.” (2009).  The mid-Pleistocene Transition from 40 ky to ~100 ky glacial cycles is generally characterized as a singular transition attributable to scouring of continental regolith or a long-term decrease in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Here an alternative hypothesis is suggested, that Pleistocene glacial variability is chaotic and that transitions from 40 ky to ~100 ky modes of variability occur spontaneously. This alternate view is consistent with the presence of ~80 ky glacial cycles during the early Pleistocene and the lack of evidence for a change in climate forcing during the mid-Pleistocene. A simple model illustrates this chaotic scenario. When forced at a 40 ky period the model chaotically transitions between small 40 ky glacial cycles and larger 80 and 120 ky cycles which, on average, give the ~100 ky variability.
  11. Dima, Mihai, and Gerrit Lohmann. “Conceptual model for millennial climate variability: a possible combined solar-thermohaline circulation origin for the~ 1,500-year cycle.” Climate Dynamics 32.2-3 (2009): 301-311.  Dansgaard-Oeschger and Heinrich events are the most pronounced climatic changes over the last 120,000 years. Although many of their properties were derived from climate reconstructions, the associated physical mechanisms are not yet fully understood. These events are paced by a ~1,500-year periodicity whose origin remains unclear. In a conceptual model approach, we show that this millennial variability can originate from rectification of an external (solar) forcing, and suggest that the thermohaline circulation, through a threshold response, could be the rectifier. We argue that internal threshold response of the thermohaline circulation (THC) to solar forcing is more likely to produce the observed DO cycles than amplification of weak direct ~1,500-year forcing of unknown origin, by THC. One consequence of our concept is that the millennial variability is viewed as a derived mode without physical processes on its characteristic time scale. Rather, the mode results from the linear representation in the Fourier space of nonlinearly transformed fundamental modes.
  12. Dijkstra, Henk ANonlinear climate dynamics. Cambridge University Press, 2013.  WUNSCH

EARLY HOLOCENE SEA LEVEL RISE & 8.2K EVENT

  1. Hori, KazuakiHori, Kazuaki, and Yoshiki Saito. “An early Holocene sea‐level jump and delta initiation.” Geophysical Research Letters 34.18 (2007).  Early Holocene sea‐level change controlled the evolution of classic coastal depositional systems. Radiocarbon‐dated borehole cores obtained from three incised‐valley‐fill systems in Asia (Changjiang, Song Hong, and Kiso River) record very similar depositional histories, especially between about 9000 and 8500 cal BP. Sedimentary facies changes from estuarine sand and mud to shelf or prodelta mud suggest that the marine influence in the incised valleys increased during this period. In addition, large decreases in sediment accumulation rates occurred. A sea‐level jump causes an estuarine system and its depocenter to move rapidly landward. It is possible that the final collapse of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, accompanied by catastrophic drainage of glacial lakes, at approximately 8500 cal BP caused such a jump. The jump was followed immediately by a period of decelerated sea‐level rise that promoted delta initiation.
  2. Vink, AnnemiekVink, Annemiek, et al. “Holocene relative sea-level change, isostatic subsidence and the radial viscosity structure of the mantle of northwest Europe (Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, southern North Sea).” Quaternary Science Reviews26.25-28 (2007): 3249-3275.  A comprehensive observational database of Holocene relative sea-level (RSL) index points from northwest Europe (Belgium, the Netherlands, northwest Germany, southern North Sea) has been compiled in order to compare and reassess the data collected from the different countries/regions and by different workers on a common time–depth scale. RSL rise varies in magnitude and form between these regions, revealing a complex pattern of differential crustal movement which cannot be solely attributed to tectonic activity. It clearly contains a non-linear, glacio- and/or hydro-isostatic subsidence component, which is only small on the Belgian coastal plain but increases significantly to a value of ca 7.5 m relative to Belgium since 8 cal. ka BP along the northwest German coast. The subsidence is at least in part related to the Post-Glacial collapse of the so-called peripheral forebulge which developed around the Fennoscandian centre of ice loading during the Last Glacial Maximum. The RSL data have been compared to geodynamic Earth models in order to infer the radial viscosity structure of the Earth’s mantle underneath NW Europe (lithosphere thickness, upper- and lower-mantle viscosity), and conversely to predict RSL in regions where we have only few observational data (e.g. in the southern North Sea). A very broad range of Earth parameters fit the Belgian RSL data, suggesting that glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) only had a minor effect on Belgian crustal dynamics during and after the Last Ice Age. In contrast, a narrow range of Earth parameters define the southern North Sea region, reflecting the greater influence of GIA on these deeper/older samples. Modelled RSL data suggest that the zone of maximum forebulge subsidence runs in a relatively narrow, WNW–ESE trending band connecting the German federal state of Lower Saxony with the Dogger Bank area in the southern North Sea. Identification of the effects of local-scale factors such as past changes in tidal range or tectonic activity on the spatial and temporal variations of sea-level index points based on model-data comparisons is possible but is still complicated by the relatively large range of Earth model parameters fitting each RSL curve, emphasizing the need for more high-quality observational data.
  3. Kendall, Roblyn A., et al. “The sea-level fingerprint of the 8.2 ka climate event.” Geology 36.5 (2008): 423-426.  The 8.2 ka cooling event was an abrupt, widespread climate instability. There is general consensus that the episode was likely initiated by a catastrophic outflow of proglacial Lakes Agassiz and Ojibway through the Hudson Strait, with subsequent disruption of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. However, the total discharge and flux during the 8.2 ka event remain uncertain. We compute the sea-level signature, or “fingerprint,” associated with the drainage of Lakes Agassiz and Ojibway, as well as the expected sea-level signal over the same time period due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) in response to the Late Pleistocene deglaciation. Our analysis demonstrates that sites relatively close to the lakes, including the West and Gulf Coasts of the United States, have small signals due to the lake release and potentially large GIA signals, and thus they may not be optimal field sites for constraining the outflow volume. Other sites, such as the east coast of South America and western Africa, have significantly larger signals associated with the lake release and are thus better choices in this regard.
  4. Hijma, Marc Phijma-mark., and Kim M. Cohen. “Timing and magnitude of the sea-level jump preluding the 8200 yr event.” Geology 38.3 (2010): 275-278.  Evidence from terrestrial, glacial, and global climate model reconstructions suggests that a sea-level jump caused by meltwater release was associated with the triggering of the 8.2 ka cooling event. However, there has been no direct measurement of this jump using precise sea-level data. In addition, the chronology of the meltwater pulse is based on marine data with limited dating accuracy. The most plausible mechanism for triggering the cooling event is the sudden, possibly multistaged drainage of the Laurentide proglacial Lakes Agassiz and Ojibway through the Hudson Strait into the North Atlantic ca. 8470 ± 300 yr ago. Here we show with detailed sea-level data from Rotterdam, Netherlands, that the sea-level rise commenced 8450 ± 44 yr ago. Our timing considerably narrows the existing age of this drainage event and provides support for the hypothesis of a double-staged lake drainage. The jump in sea level reached a local magnitude of 2.11 ± 0.89 m within 200 yr, in addition to the ongoing background relative sea-level rise (1.95 ± 0.74 m). This magnitude, observed at considerable distance from the release site, points to a global-averaged eustatic sea-level jump that is double the size of previous estimates (3.0 ± 1.2 m versus 0.4–1.4 m). The discrepancy suggests either a coeval Antarctic contribution or, more likely, a previous underestimate of the total American lake drainage.
  5. Bard, Edouardeduard, Bruno Hamelin, and Doriane Delanghe-Sabatier. “Deglacial meltwater pulse 1B and Younger Dryas sea levels revisited with boreholes at Tahiti.” Science327.5970 (2010): 1235-1237.  Reconstructing sea-level changes during the last deglaciation provides a way of understanding the ice dynamics that can perturb large continental ice sheets. The resolution of the few sea-level records covering the critical time interval between 14,000 and 9,000 YBP calendar years before the present is still insufficient to draw conclusions about sea-level changes associated with the Younger Dryas cold event and the meltwater pulse 1B (MWP-1B). We used the uranium-thorium method to date shallow-living corals from three new cores drilled onshore in the Tahiti barrier reef. No significant discontinuity can be detected in the sea-level rise during the MWP-1B period. The new Tahiti sea-level record shows that the sea-level rise slowed down during the Younger Dryas before accelerating again during the Holocene.
  6. Smith, D. E., et al. “The early Holocene sea level rise.” Quaternary Science Reviews 30.15-16 (2011): 1846-1860.  The causes, anatomy and consequences of the early Holocene sea level rise (EHSLR) are reviewed. The rise, of ca 60m, took place over most of the Earth as the volume of the oceans increased during deglaciation and is dated at 11,650–7000 cal. BP. The EHSLR was largely driven by meltwater release from decaying ice masses and the break up of coastal ice streams. The patterns of ice sheet decay and the evidence for meltwater pulses are reviewed, and it is argued that the EHSLR was a factor in the ca 8470 BP flood from Lake Agassiz-Ojibway. Patterns of relative sea level changes are examined and it is argued that in addition to regional variations, temporal changes are indicated. The impact of the EHSLR on climate is reviewed and it is maintained that the event was a factor in the 8200 BP cooling event, as well as in changes in ocean current patterns and their resultant effects. The EHSLR may also have enhanced volcanic activity, but no clear evidence of a causal link with submarine sliding on continental slopes and shelves can yet be demonstrated. The rise probably influenced rates and patterns of human migrations and cultural changes. It is concluded that the EHSLR was a major event of global significance, knowledge of which is relevant to an understanding of the impacts of global climate change in the future. Highlights:  1. Reviews the early Holocene sea level rise of 11650–7000 cal. BP. 2. Argues that the rise was involved in the discharge of Lake Agassiz-Ojibway and the 8200-year cooling event. 3. Shows that he rise influenced climate by increasing sea areas, in turn affecting human migration. 4. Suggests that the rise increased volcanic activity, but that its effects on submarine sliding are uncertain. 5. Argues that study of the rise helps throw light on the effects of future sea level changes in a global warming world.
  7. Hijma, Marchijma-mark P., and Kim M. Cohen. “Holocene transgression of the Rhine river mouth area, The Netherlands/Southern North Sea: palaeogeography and sequence stratigraphy.” Sedimentology 58.6 (2011): 1453-1485.  This study presents a detailed reconstruction of the palaeogeography of the Rhine valley (western Netherlands) during the Holocene transgression with systems tracts placed in a precise sea‐level context. This approach permits comparison of actual versus conceptual boundaries of the lowstand, transgressive and highstand systems tracts. The inland position of the highstand Rhine river mouth on a wide, low‐gradient continental shelf meant that base‐level changes were the dominant control on sedimentation for a relatively short period of the last glacial cycle. Systems in such inland positions predominantly record changes in the balance between river discharge and sediment load, and preserve excellent records of climatic changes or other catchment‐induced forcing. It is shown here that the transgressive systems tract‐part of the coastal prism formed in three stages: (i) the millennium before 8·45 ka bp, when the area was dominated by fluvial environments with extensive wetlands; (ii) the millennium after 8·45 ka, characterized by strong erosion, increasing tidal amplitudes and bay‐head delta development; and (iii) the period between 7·5 and 6·3 ka bp when the Rhine avulsed multiple times and the maximum flooding surface formed. The diachroneity of the transgressive surface is strongly suppressed because of a pulse of accelerated sea‐level rise at 8·45 ka bp. That event not only had a strong effect on preservation, but has circum‐oceanic stratigraphical relevance as it divides the early and middle Holocene parts of coastal successions worldwide. The palaeogeographical reconstruction offers a unique full spatial–temporal view on the coastal and fluvial dynamics of a major river mouth under brief rapid forced transgression. This reconstruction is of relevance for Holocene and ancient transgressive systems worldwide, and for next‐century natural coasts that are predicted to experience a 1 m sea‐level rise.
  8. Hijma, Marchijma-mark P., et al. “Pleistocene Rhine–Thames landscapes: geological background for hominin occupation of the southern North Sea region.” Journal of Quaternary Science 27.1 (2012): 17-39.  This paper links research questions in Quaternary geology with those in Palaeolithic archaeology. A detailed geological reconstruction of The Netherlands’ south‐west offshore area provides a stratigraphical context for archaeological and palaeontological finds. Progressive environmental developments have left a strong imprint on the area’s Palaeolithic record. We highlight aspects of landscape evolution and related taphonomical changes, visualized in maps for critical periods of the Pleistocene in the wider southern North Sea region. The Middle Pleistocene record is divided into two palaeogeographical stages: the pre‐Anglian/Elsterian stage, during which a wide land bridge existed between England and Belgium even during marine highstands; and the Anglian/Elsterian to Saalian interglacial, with a narrower land bridge, lowered by proglacial erosion but not yet fully eroded. The Late Pleistocene landscape was very different, with the land bridge fully dissected by an axial Rhine–Thames valley, eroded deep enough to fully connect the English Channel and the North Sea during periods of highstand. This tripartite staging implies great differences in (i) possible migration routes of herds of herbivores as well as hominins preying upon them, (ii) the erosion base of axial and tributary rivers causing an increase in the availability of flint raw materials and (iii) conditions for loess accumulation in northern France and Belgium and the resulting preservation of Middle Palaeolithic sites.
  9. Törnqvist, TorbjörnTörnqvist, Torbjörn E., and Marc P. Hijma. “Links between early Holocene ice-sheet decay, sea-level rise and abrupt climate change.” Nature Geoscience 5.9 (2012): 601.  The beginning of the current interglacial period, the Holocene epoch, was a critical part of the transition from glacial to interglacial climate conditions. This period, between about 12,000 and 7,000 years ago, was marked by the continued retreat of the ice sheets that had expanded through polar and temperate regions during the preceding glacial. This meltdown led to a dramatic rise in sea level, punctuated by short-lived jumps associated with catastrophic ice-sheet collapses. Tracking down which ice sheet produced specific sea-level jumps has been challenging, but two events between 8,500 and 8,200 years ago have been linked to the final drainage of glacial Lake Agassiz in north-central North America. The release of the water from this ice-dammed lake into the ocean is recorded by sea-level jumps in the Mississippi and Rhine-Meuse deltas of approximately 0.4 and 2.1 metres, respectively. These sea-level jumps can be related to an abrupt cooling in the Northern Hemisphere known as the 8.2 kyr event, and it has been suggested that the freshwater release from Lake Agassiz into the North Atlantic was sufficient to perturb the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. As sea-level rise on the order of decimetres to metres can now be detected with confidence and linked to climate records, it is becoming apparent that abrupt climate change during the early Holocene associated with perturbations in North Atlantic circulation required sustained freshwater release into the ocean.
  10. Sturt, FraserSturt, Fraser, Duncan Garrow, and Sarah Bradley. “New models of North West European Holocene palaeogeography and inundation.” Journal of Archaeological Science 40.11 (2013): 3963-3976. Highlights: New Palaeogeographic models of North West Europe from 11,000 BP to present day at 500 year intervals. Calculated rates for Holocene inundation across North West Europe. High rates of change do not necessarily mean catastrophic impacts. Understanding rates of change and their social implications requires a multi-scalar, multidisciplinary approach to the past.Abstract: This paper presents new 500 year interval palaeogeographic models for Britain, Ireland and the North West French coast from 11000 cal. BP to present. These models are used to calculate the varying rates of inundation for different geographical zones over the study period. This allows for consideration of the differential impact that Holocene sea-level rise had across space and time, and on past societies. In turn, consideration of the limitations of the models helps to foreground profitable areas for future research.


  • budbromley: https://budbromley.blog/2022/09/24/that-would-be-the-road-to-hell/
  • budbromley: Could be a good article for the Babylon Bee. Just left out the 97% joke and hockey stick. Instead, I see a ground swell of resistance, more deniers,
  • chaamjamal: IF THE SCIENCE IS GOOD SELL THE SCIENCE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SCIENCE IF THE SCIENCE IS BAD, SELL THE SCIENCE BY DENIGRATING ITS CRITICS.