Thongchai Thailand

BARRELING TOWARDS 1.5C

Posted on: May 28, 2021

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF AN NPR ARTICLE THAT THE DANGERS OF 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL THAT THE IPCC HAD WARNED US ABOUT ARE NEAR AND THAT A STATE OF CLIMATE CHAOS IS IMMINENT.

LINK TO ARTICLE: https://www.npr.org/2021/05/26/1000465487/earth-is-barreling-toward-1-5-degrees-celsius-of-warming-scientists-warn

1.5C BY 2027? | Thongchai Thailand

PART-1: WHAT THE ARTICLE SAYS

Earth Is Barreling Toward 1.5 Degrees Celsius Of Warming, Scientists Warn.

Climate-driven droughts make large, destructive fires more likely around the world. Scientists warn that humans are on track to cause catastrophic global warming this century. The average temperature on Earth is now consistently 1 degree Celsius hotter than it was in the late 1800s, and that temperature will keep rising toward the critical 1.5C benchmark over the next five years, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization. Scientists warn that humans must keep the average annual global temperature from lingering at or above 1.5C to avoid the most catastrophic and long-term effects of climate change. Those include massive flooding, severe drought and runaway ocean warming that fuels tropical storms and drives mass die-offs of marine species. The new report from the WMO, an agency of the United Nations, finds that global temperatures are accelerating toward 1.5C of warming since pre-industrial. The authors of the new report predict there is a 44% chance that the average annual temperature on Earth will temporarily hit 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming at some point in the next five years. That likelihood has doubled since last year. “We’re seeing accelerating change in our climate. Annual temperatures on Earth fluctuate according to short-term climate cycles, which means some years are much hotter than others, even as the overall trend line goes up steadily. As climate change accelerates, it gets more and more likely that individual years will exceed 1.5C since pre-industrial.

We had some hopes that, with last year’s COVID scenario, perhaps the lack of travel & the lack of industry might act as a little bit of a brake but what we’re seeing is, frankly, it has not.


Years with record-breaking heat offer a glimpse of the future. For example, 2020 was one of the hottest years on record. Last year, global temperatures were about 1.2C hotter than the late 1800s, according to the WMO. Millions of people suffered immensely as a result. The U.S. experienced a record-breaking number of billion-dollar weather disasters, including hurricanes and wildfires. Widespread droughts, floods and heat waves killed people on every continent except Antarctica. Recent climate disasters underscore the extent to which a couple degrees of warming can have enormous effects. For example, during the last ice age the Earth was only about 6 degrees Celsius colder than it is now, on average. An increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius “is a very, very, very, very big number. We need to be concerned about it.”


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The goal of the Paris climate accord is to keep the increase in global temperatures well below 2 compared with pre-industrial levels
, and ideally try to limit warming to 1.5C. Those thresholds refer to temperature on Earth over multiple years. Exceeding 1.5C in a single year wouldn’t breach the Paris Agreement. But with every passing year of rising greenhouse gas emissions, it becomes more and more likely that humans will cause catastrophic warming. The report estimates there’s a 90% chance that one of the next five years will be the warmest year on record. It is yet another wakeup call that the world needs to fast-track commitments to slash greenhouse gas emissions and achieve carbon neutrality,” WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said. The United Nations warns that, as of late 2020, humans were on track to cause more than 3C of warming by the end of the century.

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How The U.S. Could Halve Climate Emissions By 2030: SCIENCE

If the U.S. follows through on new promises to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions, it would help limit global warming to some extent, although other countries including China would also need to reduce their emissions dramatically in thenext 10 years. In April, the Biden administration pledged to cut U.S. emissions in half by 2030 compared with 2005 levels. Most of those cuts would need to come from electricity generation and transportation, including all but eliminating coal-fired power plants and transitioning to electric cars and trucks. Congress is considering infrastructure legislation that could help push those transitions forward. Meanwhile, the fossil fuel industry is seeing more pressure to invest in clean energy. On Wednesday, a Dutch court ordered Shell to cut its carbon emissions more quickly, although the company says it expects to appeal the decision. And a small activist hedge fund successfully placed at least two new candidates on Exxon Mobil’s board of directors, with the goal of pushing the company to take climate change more seriously.

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PART-2: CRITICAL COMMENTARY

CLAIM: If the U.S. follows through on new promises to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions, it would help limit global warming to some extent: RESPONSE: This statement is false. In related posts we show that climate action needs to be global. There is no opportunity for climate action herosism of nation states because the climate-action nation will cede a trade advantage to non-climate-action nations where there will be a corresponding rise in emissions. LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/02/23/renewable-energy-statistics/

CLAIM:: Climate action being taken against Exxon and Shell: RESPONSE: Climate action must address the combustion of fossil fuels and not their production as there are many non combustion uses of fossil fuels with no climate change implication.

CLAIM: Four million Chinese affected by floods. RESPONSE: Floods and droughts in China have been recorded for thousands of years LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/05/22/climate-science-versus-the-fangzhi-2005/ . That there was a significant flood in China during the climate change era does not provide evidence that the flood was caused by climate change or that such floods can be avoided in the future by taking climate action.

CLAIM: The authors of the new report predict there is a 44% chance that the average annual temperature on Earth will temporarily hit 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming at some point in the next five years. RESPONSE: That there is a 44% chance we will temporarily reach 1.5C since pre industrial at some point in the next 5 years does not have an interpretation as barreling toward 1.5C. We have temporatily hit these kinds of high temperatures before but the temporariness of the event renders it as internal climate variability that has no climate change interpretation. LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/07/16/the-internal-variability-issue/

CLAIM: We had some hopes that, with last year’s COVID scenario, perhaps the lack of travel & the lack of industry might act as a little bit of a brake but what we’re seeing is, frankly, it has not. RESPONSE: A critical and significant assumption in climate science is that atmosheric CO2 concentration is responsive to fossil fuel emissions AT AN ANNUAL TIME SCALE. In that context the failure of that responsiveness in the covid year requires an explanation.

CLAIM: 2020 was one of the hottest years on record. Last year, global temperatures were about 1.2C hotter than the late 1800s, according to the WMO. RESPONSE: Climate change is a theory about long term trends in global mean surface temperature. What is the relevance of this citation that a high temperature event occurred in a certain year? LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/07/16/the-internal-variability-issue/

THIS KIND OF REPORTING IS BRASH AND UNBRIDDLED CLIMATE ACTIVISM BUT IT IS NOTHING NEW. THIS BEHAVIOR OF THE MEDIA IS NOW MORE THAN 40 YEARS OLD. HERE ARE A FEW OTHER GOOFY THINGS YOU CLIMATE CLOWNS HAD RAVED ABOUT IN THE PAST.

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/04/13/the-science-of-climate-science-is-fear/

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  • Ruben Leon: People who believe CO2 is causing climate change are either ignorant of basic science or they don't believe in gravity. CO2 is 10% heavier than Cal
  • chaamjamal: Well said. Thank you very much.
  • budbromley: This is a laughable response by "Professor Ed Hawkins." I would not waste the time to look up his bio. No real data or evidence presented. One ad ho
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