Thongchai Thailand

AN OBSESSION WITH COOLING FORECASTS

Posted on: May 9, 2021

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THIS POST IS A PRESENTATION OF RELATED POSTS ON THIS SITE THAT PROVIDE CRITICAL EVALUATIONS OF THE CASE AGAINST THE CATASTROPHIC PREDICTIONS OF HUMAN CAUSED GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN TERMS OF COUNTER PREDICTIONS THAT THE WARMING IS OVER AND THAT WE ARE “ENTERING A COOLING PHASE” BECAUSE THE EARTH’S LONG TERM SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS CYCLICAL AND DRIVEN BY THE SUNSPOT CYCLE WITH NO ROLE FOR ATMOSPHERIC CO2.

RELATED POST#1: 2019 ENTERING A COOLING PHASE: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/07/23/cooling/

UAH global mean lower troposphere temperature anomalies 1979-2019 and their decadal trends are studied for signs that what has been a warming trend has changed or is changing into a cooling trend. No such evidence is found in the data. The chart summarizing the findings is reproduced below. Details in the linked post above.

COUNTS

RELATED POST#2: GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM GLOBAL COOLING: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/06/16/a-grand-solar-minimum/

SUMMARY, AS IN THE SIMILAR STUDY OF 2019 [LINK] , WE FIND NO EVIDENCE IN UAH LOWER TROPOSPHERE DATA FOR GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE (LAND AND OCEAN), OR FOR LAND ONLY, THAT THE “COMING GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM” HAS IMPOSED A COOLING TREND OR IS IMPOSING A COOLING TREND IN GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURES. 

THE EVIDENCE FOR “THE COMING COOLING OF THE GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM” IS PRESENTED IN TERMS OF THE BRIEF AND LOCALIZED COOLING THAT CAN ONLY BE UNDERSTOOD AS INTERNAL CLIMATE VARIABIITY. NO RATIONALE IS PROVIDED FOR THE INTERPRETATION OF THESE BRIEF EVENTS IN TERMS OF AGW CLIMATE CHANGE OR THE GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM. BOTH OF THESE THEORIES RELATE TO LONG TERM TRENDS IN GLOBAL MEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE. 

THE SOLAR CYCLE CHART PROVIDED BY THE AUTHORS TO SUPPORT THEIR HYPOTHESIS IS REPRODUCED BELOW.

RELATED POST ON INTERNAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/07/16/the-internal-variability-issue/

RELATED POST #3: THE TIME SCALE OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE SOLAR CYCLE AND GLOBAL MEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE (GMST): LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/06/19/sunspots/

HERE WE NOTE AS FOLLOWS: THE SOLAR CYCLE AND THE “COMING COOLING” ARGUMENT AGAINST THE AGW CO2 DRIVEN GLOBAL WARMING HYPOTHESIS PROPOSE THAT THE OBSERVED WARMING IS DRIVEN BY THE SOLAR CYCLE AND THAT THIS THEORY WILL BE PROVEN CORRECT WHEN THE SOLAR MINIMUM ARRIVES AND THE WORLD COOLS AS IT HAD DONE IN THE MAUNDER MINIMUM LITTLE ICE AGE, AND THAT THE SOLAR CYCLE MINIMUM AND THEREFORE THE COOLING IS IMMINENT OR PERHAPS ALREADY UNDER WAY.

This solar cycle theory of temperature trends implies that surface temperature is responsive to the solar cycle. In the relared post linked above, we test this claimed relationship with correlation and regression analysis of the long run Central England Temperature series (CET: 1750-2018) against the corresponding sunspot data from SILSO. The calendar months are studied separately as it is found that the behavior of both time series (sunspots and CET) used in this work vary significantly among the calendar months. The claimed relationship between sunspots and temperaure are studied at 11-year and 22-year time scales in accordance with a claim by solar cycle theorists that the effect of the solar cycle on temperature is cumulative such that it is necessary to study this relationship at these longer time scales.

The 22-year time scale is supported by NASA in their explanation of the Maunder Minimum by author Drew Shindell: LINK: https://visibleearth.nasa.gov/images/7122/chilly-temperatures-during-the-maunder-minimum

THE BOTTOM LINE HERE IS THE CORRELATION BETWEEN SUNSPOT COUNT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE.

IN THE RELATED POST LINKED ABOVE WE FIND A STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT CORRELATION AT TIME SCALES OF 11 AND 22 YEARS BOTH IN THE SOURCE DATA AND IN THE DETRENDED SERIES AT THE FULL 270-YEAR TIME SPAN OF THE DATA. HOWEVER, AS THE TIME SPAN IS REDUCED FROM 270 YEARS THE CORRELATION WEAKENS UNTIL IT BECOMES STATISTICALLY INSIGNIFICANT AT A TIME SPANS OF LESS THAN 200 YEARS.

THE IMPLICATION OF THESE FINDINGS FOR “THE COMING SOLAR CYCLE COOLING” ENTHUSIASM AMONG CLIMATE CHANGE SKEPTICS IS THAT THE TIME SCALE OF THE DATA USED IN THE ANALYSIS IS NOT LONG ENOUGH FOR THE SOLAR CYCLE EFFECT. A POSSIBLE EXPLANATION FOR THE TIME SPAN EFFECT IS CHAOTIC BEHAVIOR OF THE TIME SERIES. IN ANOTHER RELATED POST WE SHOW THAT THE SOLAR CYCLE TIME SERIES CONTAINS A HURST PERSISTENCE THAT IMPOSES CHAOTIC BEHAVIOR IN THE DATA. LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/02/26/a-chaotic-solar-cycle/

SILSO-ANNUAL-GIF

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