Thongchai Thailand

THE NULL HYPOTHESIS ISSUE

Posted on: April 5, 2021

Null Hypothesis and Alternative Hypothesis

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL EVALUATION OF THE HYPOTHESIS TESTING PROCEDURE IN CLIMATE SCIENCE.

WE SHOW THAT CLIMATE SCIENCE CONTAINS A BIAS FOR THE TRUTH OF THAT WHICH IS TO BE PROVEN AND THAT THEREFORE CLIMATE SCIENCE CANNOT BE CONSIDERED TO BE UNBIASED AND OBJECTIVE SCIENTIFIC INQUIRY.

SPECIFICALLY, IN OBJECTIVE UNBIASED SCIENTIFIC INQUIRY, THAT WHICH IS TO BE PROVEN MUST BE THE ALTERNATE HYPOTHESIS AND ITS NEGATION THEN BECOMES THE NULL HYPOTHESIS. THE UNBIASED DATA COLLECTION MUST THEN PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT EVIDENCE TO REJECT THE NULL IN ORDER TO ACCEPT THE TRUTH OF THAT WHICH IS TO BE PROVEN.

THE TRUTH OF THAT WHICH IS TO BE PROVEN WHEN TAKEN AS THE NULL HYPOTHESIS CONTAINS A BIAS AND IT VIOLATES THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD SUCH THAT THE RESEARCH FINDINGS OF THIS METHODOLOGY CANNOT BE TAKEN AS THE PRODUCT OF OBJECTIVE AND UNBIASED SCIENTIFIC INQUIRY. THE ODD LOGIC IN CLIMATE SCIENCE DESCRIBED AS “THE LESS WE KNOW THE SCARIER IT GETS” DERIVES FROM THIS STATISTICAL ERROR. THE TRUTH OF THAT WHICH IS TO BE PROVEN STANDS AS TRUTH UNTIL PROVEN WRONG.

THIS BIAS IS OFTEN ACKNOWLEDGED AND THEN DEFENDED WITH THE PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE. THE PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE IS USED IN ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH WHERE THIS BIAS IN RESEARCH METHODOLOGY IS NEEDED TO MAKE SURE THAT WE AVOID THE GREATER HORROR OF BEING WRONG ABOUT THE DANGER OF THAT WHICH IS TO BE PROVEN DANGEROUS BECAUSE THE HORROR IS GREATER THAN THE COST OF BEING WRONG ABOUT THE HORROR.

IN THIS CONTEXT, THE CALL FOR THE WORLD TO TAKE COSTLY CLIMATE ACTION CAN BE TRANSLATED AS {YOU MUST DO AS WE SAY JUST IN CASE WE ARE RIGHT}. THE COST OF AVOIDING THE HORROR THAT AWAITS US IF WE ARE RIGHT IS LESS THAN THE COST OF THE HORROR.

THIS LOGIC IS THE NORM IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES WHERE IT IS REFERRED TO AS THE PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE, A METHODOLOGY KNOWN TO FOR ITS CONFIRMATION BIAS.

LINK TO RELATED POST ON THE PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/12/27/superstitious-humans/

The everyday magic of superstition | The Psychologist

THE LANGUAGE OF CLIMATE SCIENCE RESEARCH FINDINGS EXPOSES CONFIRMATION BIAS

RELATED POST#1: NATURE’S METHANE ABUNDANCE. OMG OMG. THE LESS WE KNOW THE SCARIER IT GETS.

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/12/12/methanescare/

CLAIM: Curbing methane could be a powerful tool in our upcoming climate fight against AGW climate change

RESPONSE: That “natural microbe-produced methane” has taken the lead and that “upticks in methane levels are not correlated with human activity” does not imply that “Curbing methane could be a powerful tool in our upcoming climate fight against AGW climate change”. It implies that this is nature at work and not human activity of the industrial economy from which the climate and the planet need to be saved.

Related post on “upticks in methane levels are not correlated with human activity” [LINK] . 

Related post on NOAA: [LINK] 

The everyday magic of superstition | The Psychologist

RELATED POST#2: FISHING FOR CLIMATE CALAMITY: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/05/23/fishing-for-climate-calamity/

CLAIM: CLIMATE CHANGE IS REDUCING THE NUMBER OF FISH IN THE OCEAN

RESPONSE: The eco scare that human activity is killing off the fish in the oceans predates climate change. In the BC days (before-climate), a combination of over-fishing, seafaring, and discharges of plastics and pollution into the oceans by humans were cited (“Sea’s riches running out”, 1977).

In (AC) after-climate era, causes of the fish apocalypse is described in terms of rising ocean temperature and ocean acidification by fossil fuel emissions. As well, the language of fish apocalypse is changed from gradual reduction in numbers to “depletion at alarming rates” and that marine life on earth is “at a breaking point”. There is also a timeline given for when the oceans will become devoid of fish. That will happen in the year 2050. Unless of course we get serious about the Paris Accord, stop using dirty polluting fossil fuels, and save the planet. And the fish.

The everyday magic of superstition | The Psychologist

RELATED POST#3: THE DEARTH OF SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE ONLY ADDS TO THE ALARM

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/05/22/global-warming-science-2007-the-dearth-of-scientific-knowledge-only-adds-to-the-alarm/

CLAIM: Global warming scientists cited the shrinking of the Chorabari Glacier in the eastern Himalayan Mountains as evidence that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels is causing global warming and that global warming in turn is causing Himalayan glaciers to melt. Although the data are insufficient and conflicting, they project that in a hundred years, the glacial loss will affect water supply to a vast region whose rivers get their water from these glaciers. With respect to the absence of sufficient data to support this projection, they propose the odd logic that “the dearth of scientific knowledge only adds to the alarm”.

RESPONSE: An implied invocation of the precautionary principle which implies the odd logic that the less we know the scarier it gets – a clear case of the corruption of science by activism to the point where activism trumps science and leads to the conculsion that the less we know the scarier it gets.

The everyday magic of superstition | The Psychologist

RELATED POST#4: THE LESS WE KNOW THE SCARIER IT GETS

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/11/03/lessweknow/

CLAIM: At current sea level rise forecasts, it was projected that 110 million people will be affected by coastal high tide flooding events by the year 2100 but new improved satellite data for coastal land elevation shows that they could be lower that we had thought and so the number of people affected by high tide flood events at the same rate of sea level rise will be higher, maybe 190 million or somewhere between 140 and 240 million due to large uncertainties in satellite coastal elevation data. A problem with that assessment is that the large uncertainty in coastal land elevation data may mean that we don’t really know what the coastal land elevation is exactly. 

RESPONSE: The large uncertainty in DEM data does not imply “look how high it could be”. It implies that it is not a reliable measurement device and that it does not give us useful information to forecast the number of coastal people affected by sea level rise.

The everyday magic of superstition | The Psychologist

RELATED POST ON CONFIRMATION BIAS AND SUPERSTITION IN CLIMATE SCIENCE

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/03/confirmationbias/

SUMMARY: THE INHERENT SUPERSTITIOUS NATURE OF HUMANS HAS BEEN USED IN THE CREATION OF THE CLIMATE CRISIS AND CLIMATE EMERGENCY OF OUR TIME IN WHICH FOSSIL FUELS, THE PRODUCERS OF FOSSIL FUELS, AND THE CAPITALIST ECONOMY THAT PROFITS FROM FOSSIL FUELS ARE THE WITCHES THAT NEED TO BE BURNED TO FULFILL ACTIVISM NEEDS AGAINST FOSSIL FUELS. CLIMATE SCIENCE MAY HAVE SOME SCIENCE IN IT BUT IT IS BEST UNDERSTOOD AS ANTI FOSSIL FUEL ACTIVISM IN WHICH EXXON AND CAPITALISM ARE THE WITCHES.

SPECIFIC EXAMPLES OF SUPERSTITION AND CONFIRMATION BIAS IN CLIMATE SCIENCE ARE PARTICULARLY EVIDENT IN THE ATTRIBUTION OF BAD WEATHER OR CLIMATE EVENTS OR EVEN FOREST FIRES TO FOSSIL FUELS. OTHER AREAS OF CLIMATE SCIENCE WHERE SUPERSTITION IS EVIDENT ARE IN THE EXTREME FORM OF ATMOSPHERE BIAS IN THE UNDERSTANDING OF ALL CLIMATE AND GEOCHEMISTRY ANOMALIES. THE SPECIFIC FORM OF THIS BIAS IS THE TENDENCY TO EXPLAIN ALL OBSERVED CHANGES IN TERMS OF FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS.

The everyday magic of superstition | The Psychologist

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