Thongchai Thailand

POSTS ON OZONE DEPLETION

Posted on: March 31, 2021

THIS POST IS A LIST OF POSTS AT THIS SITE ON OZONE DEPLETION WHERE WE SHOW THAT THERE WAS NEVER ANY EVIDENCE OF OZONE DEPLETION AND SPECIFICALLY THAT THE PERIODIC SEASONAL LOW OZONE CONDITION ABOVE THE SOUTH POLE DESCRIBED AS AN OZONE HOLE IS NOT EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE THAT VERIFIES THE ROWLAND MOLINA THEORY OF OZONE DEPLETION.

Montreal Protocol and the Phaseout of R22

INTRODUCTION TO THE OZONE DEPLETION ISSUE:

LOVELOCK: In 1971, environmentalist James Lovelock studied the unrestricted release of halogenated hydrocarbons (HHC) into the atmosphere from their use as aerosol dispensers, fumigants, pesticides, and refrigerants. He was concerned that these chemicals were man-made and they did not otherwise occur in nature and that they were chemically inert and that therefore their atmospheric release could cause irreversible accumulation. In a now famous1973 paper {Lovelock, Maggs, and Wade 1973}, he presented the discovery that air samples above the Atlantic ocean far from human habitation contained measurable quantities of HHC. It established for the first time that environmental issues could be framed on a global scale and it served as the first of three key events that eventually led to the Montreal Protocol worldwide ban on the production, sale, and atmospheric release of HHC and the rise of the UN as a global environmental regulator. Since HHCs were non-toxic and, as of 1973, environmental science knew of no harmful effects of HHC, the environmental concern about their accumulation in the atmosphere remained an academic curiosity.

ROWLAND-MOLINA: This situation changed in 1974 with the publication of a paper by Mario Molina and Frank Rowland in which is contained a theory of ozone depletion by HHC. 1974). According to the Rowland-Molina theory of ozone depletion (RMTOD), the extreme volatility and chemical inertness of the HHCs ensure that there is no natural sink for these chemicals in the troposphere and that therefore once emitted they may remain in the atmosphere for 40 to 150 years and be transported by diffusion and atmospheric motion to the stratospheric ozone layer where they are subjected to solar radiation at frequencies that will cause them to dissociate into chlorine atoms and free radicals. Chlorine atoms can then act as a catalytic agent of ozone destruction in a chemical reaction cycle described in the paper and reproduced below. The Molina, 1974 paper proposed that such ozone depletion by HHC poses a danger because the ozone layer protects life on the surface of the earth from the harmful effects of UVB radiation. This paper was the second key event that led to the Montreal Protocol. It established that the atmospheric accumulation of HHC is not
harmless and provided a theoretical framework that links HHC to ozone depletion.

FARMAN ETAL 1985The third key event in the genesis of the Montreal Protocol was the paper by Farman, Gardiner, and Shanklin that is taken as empirical evidence for the kind of ozone depletion described by the RMTOD (Farman, 1985). The essential finding of the Farman paper is contained in the top frame of the paper’s Figure 1 which is reproduced here as Figure 2. Ignoring the very light lines in the top frame of Figure 2, we see two dark curves one darker than the other. The darker curve contains average daily values of total column ozone in Dobson units for the 5-year test period 1980-1984. The lighter curve shows daily averages for the 16-year reference period 1957-1973. The conclusions the authors draw from the graph are that (1) atmospheric ozone levels are lower in the test period than in the reference period and (2) that the difference is more dramatic in the two spring months of October and November than it is in the summer and fall2. The difference and the seasonality of the difference between the two curves are interpreted by the authors in terms of the ozone depletion chemistry and their kinetics described by Molina and Rowland (Molina, 1974). The Farman paper was thus hailed as empirical evidence of RMTOD and the science of ozone depletion due to the atmospheric release of HHC appeared to be well established by these three key papers. First, atmospheric release of HHC caused them to accumulate in the atmosphere on a planetary scale because they are insoluble and chemically inert (Lovelock). Second, their long life and volatility ensure that they will end up in the stratosphere where HHC will be dissociated by radiation to release chlorine atoms which will act as catalytic agents of ozone depletion (Molina-Rowland). And third, empirical evidence validates the depletion of ozone and the role of HHC in
the depletion mechanism (Farman et al). The Montreal Protocol was put in place on this basis.

Relative drifts and stability of satellite and ground-based stratospheric  ozone profiles at NDACC lidar stations – topic of research paper in Earth  and related environmental sciences. Download scholarly article PDF and read

THIS POST IS A CONSOLIDATION OF POSTS ON THE OZONE DEPLETION ISSUE

Montreal Protocol... - วิศวกรรมสิ่งแวดล้อม ม.เอเชียอาคเนย์ | Facebook

THE ASSUMED PARALLEL BETWEEN OZONE DEPLETION AND CLIMATE CHANGE

A MONTREAL PROTOCOL FOR CLIMATE CHANGE: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/01/04/a-montreal-protocol-for-the-climate/

Montreal Protocol... - วิศวกรรมสิ่งแวดล้อม ม.เอเชียอาคเนย์ | Facebook

(POST#1): SCIENCE GONE WRONG: FARMAN ETAL 1985

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/03/12/ozone1966-2015/

What did NASA know? and when did they know it? « RealClimate

SUMMARY: The overall structure of changes in total column ozone in time and across latitudes shows that the data from the two stations in Antarctica prior to 1985 are unique and specific to that time and place. They cannot be generalized into a global pattern of ozone depletion. Here we show that declining levels of total column ozone in Antarctica during the months of October and November prior to 1985 do not serve as empirical evidence that can be taken as validation of the Rowland-Molina theory of chemical ozone depletion. The chemical theory implies that ozone depletion must be assessed across the full range of latitudes and over a much longer time span than what is found in Farman etal 1985 which serves as the sole basis for the ozone depletion hypothesis that led to the Montreal Protocol and the ascendance of the UN as a global environmental authority.

The concern about ozone depletion is derived from the finding by Farman et al in 1985 that ozone levels at HLB fell by 6DU per year from the 1957-1973 average to the 1980-1984 average. The data presented HERE show that ozone depletion rates of 6DU/year and higher are seen only at the South Pole. Outside of the South Pole the mean ozone depletion rate is close to zero with an uncertainty range of +/- 1DU per year, a range perhaps indicative of random natural variability. It is therefore not likely that the HLB data reported by Farman et al can be generalized globally. Yet, it served as the sole basis of validating the Rowland Molina theory of ozone depletion. This event then gave rise to the ozone depletion alarm that in turn led to a global environmental role of the UN and the Montreal Protocol, and eventually an assumed authority of the UN over global environmentalism and the climate change alarmism of our time. THE STORY OF THE OZONE DEPLETION CRISIS AND ITS APPARENT MONTREAL PROTOCOL SUCCESS IS A CASE OF CLAIMING A NON-EXISTENT PROBEM AND THEN, AT THE APPROPRIATE TIME, SIMPLY DECLARING IT SOLVED.

Montreal Protocol... - วิศวกรรมสิ่งแวดล้อม ม.เอเชียอาคเนย์ | Facebook

(POST#2): REMEMBERING MARIO MOLINA

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/24/an-ode-to-mario-molina/

The science checklist applied: CFCs and the destruction of the ozone layer

SUMMARY: The concern about ozone depletion is derived from the finding by Farman et al in 1985 that ozone levels at HLB fell by 6DU per year from the 1957-1973 average to the 1980-1984 average. The data presented HERE show that ozone depletion rates of 6DU/year and higher are seen only at the South Pole. Outside of the South Pole the mean ozone depletion rate is close to zero with an uncertainty range of +/- 1DU per year, a range perhaps indicative of random natural variability.

It is therefore not likely that the HLB data reported by Farman et al can be generalized globally. Yet, it served as the sole basis of validating the Rowland Molina theory of ozone depletion. This event then gave rise to the ozone depletion alarm that in turn led to a global environmental role of the UN and the Montreal Protocol, and eventually an assumed authority of the UN over global environmentalism and the climate change alarmism of our time.

ALL THIS WITHOUT THE EVIDENCE OF OZONE DEPLETION OR OF ITS CLAIMED RECOVERY. THE STORY OF OZONE DEPLETION CRISIS AND ITS MONTREAL PROTOCOL SUCCESS IS A CASE OF CLAIMING A NON-EXISTENT PROBEM AND THEN SIMPLY DECLARING IT SOLVED.

Montreal Protocol... - วิศวกรรมสิ่งแวดล้อม ม.เอเชียอาคเนย์ | Facebook

(POST#3): OZONE HOLE ENVIRONMENTALISM

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/12/21/ozone-hole-environmentalism/

SUMMARY: The background to the Rowland Molina theory of ozone depletion (RMTOD) is that since 1969 multiple failed theories of ozone depletion were proposed with claims that supersonic airliners, the space shuttle, and various other technologies being proposed would cause ozone depletion with blindness and skin cancer epidemics. RMTOD was simply the latest in that line of an obsession with ozone depletion fearology and it can only be understood in that context. RMTOD 1974 is not a work in isolation that can be accredited solely to Rowland and Molina. Firstly, as explained above, it was just yet another ozone depletion fear in a long line of ozone depletion fears since 1969. Even more important is that RMTOD is a product of the Lovelock 1973 paper. In 1973 James Lovelock discovered that air samples taken from the Middle of the Atlantic Ocean contained CFCs. He then published his now famous paper in which he said that these man made chemicals that did not otherwise occur in nature were inert and could therefore accumulate in the atmosphere indefinitely. It was from this work that Rowland and Molina surmised that given enough time, maybe 40 to 100 years, the inert and long lived CFCs could, by random molecular movement, end up in the stratosphere where they could be disintegrated by UV radiation to produce radical agents of ozone destruction. What Rowland and Molina proved in their lab is that UV radiation would indeed break down the CFCs and that the radicals thus produced would indeed destroy ozone but no evidence has every been produced and none exists that CFCs did indeed end up in the stratosphere. That part of RMTOD is simply imagined in a “What If” logic. The only empirical evidence presented in support of RMTOD is Farman etal 1985. The Farman study showed only that there was a brief and localized 5-year period of low ozone in the months of October and November above the South Pole that had recovered to normal levels and this was taken as evidence of RMTOD. Yet, this episodal and localized low ozone event does not serve as evidence of the RMTOD theory of ozone depletion. This theory implies a long term declining trend in global mean total column ozone. No evidence for this trend has ever been presented and we show in a related post that none exists. LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/03/12/ozone1966-2015/ . Instead, the South Polar periodic low ozone event that quickly recovers back to normal levels was sold to the general public as an “ozone hole” and claimed as evidence of RMTOD human caused global ozone depletion that could cause skin cancer in humans and blindness in animals up in North America. Then at some point, it was declared with great fanfare that the UN brokered Montreal Protocol had solved the ozone depletion problem and that the ozone had recovered. No explanation is offered for the continuation of these South Polar ozone events that had been named ozone holes. In a related post LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/30/the-unep-healed-the-ozone-hole/ we show that these South Polar events should be understood as ozone distribution events and not ozone depletion. Ozone is both created and destroyed by UV radiation. Ozone is created only above the Tropics where sunlight is direct and distributed to the greater latitudes by the Brewer Dobson circulation and episodic changes in ozone levels at the higher latitudes can be understood in terms of the dynamics of this distribution but not in terms of long term ozone depletion due to the presence of ozone depleting substances in the stratosphere. The only significant impact of what is claimed to be finally a proven case of ozone depletion after all those failures is that it served to expand the role of the UN into global environmentalism.

Montreal Protocol... - วิศวกรรมสิ่งแวดล้อม ม.เอเชียอาคเนย์ | Facebook

(POST#4) LEARNING FROM A HEALING OZONE HOLE

Maurice F. Strong, UNEP's First Executive Director, Celebrates his 85th  Birthday

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/30/the-unep-healed-the-ozone-hole/

SUMMARY: The ozone data from ground stations presented above do not show a long term declining trend in global mean total column ozone. Moreover, the patterns in the data suggest that the occasional low levels of ozone seen over the South Pole that have been interpreted as evidence of ozone depletion and evidence of a hole in the ozone layer, is a figment of a pattern in the data that is likely the creation of natural variability in ozone distribution by the Brewer Dobson circulation. Figure 27 shows that the range of observed ozone levels is a strong function of latitude. It reaches a minimum of about 20DU in the tropics and increases asymmetrically toward the two poles. The hemispheric asymmetry has two dimensions. The northward increase in range is gradual and the southward increase in range is steep. Also, the northward increase in range is achieved mostly with rising maximum values while southward increase in range is achieved mostly with falling minimum values. The midpoint between the HIGH and LOW values is symmetrical within ±45 from the equator but diverges sharply beyond 45 with the northern leg continuing a steady rise while the southern leg changes to a steep decline as seen in Figure 28. Hemispheric asymmetry in atmospheric circulation patterns is well known (Butchart, 2014) (Smith, 2014) and the corresponding asymmetry in ozone levels is also recognized (Crook, 2008) (Tegtmeier, 2008) (Pan, 1997). These asymmetries are also evident when comparing seasonal cycles among the ground stations (Figure 29). The observed asymmetries are attributed to differences in land-water patterns in the two hemispheres with specific reference to the existence of a large ice covered land mass in the South Pole (Oppenheimer, 1998) (Kang, 2010) (Turner, 2009). The climactic uniqueness of Antarctica is widely recognized. The left panel of Figure 30 represents the Southern Hemisphere from AMS (-90deg) to SMO (-14deg). The right panel represents the Northern Hemisphere from MLO (+19.5deg) to BRW (+71deg). The x-axis in each panel indicates the calendar months of the year from September = 1 to August = 12. The ordinate measures the average rate of change in total column ozone for each calendar month among adjacent Lustra for all Lustra estimated using OLS regression of mean total column ozone against Lustrum number for each month. For example, in the left panel we see that in the month of September, (x=1) ozone levels at HLB (shown in red) fell at an average rate of 15DU per Lustrum for the entire study period; and in the right panel we see that in the month of July (x=11) ozone levels at FBK (shown in orange) rose at an average rate of more than 2DU per Lustrum over the entire study period. The full study period is 50 years divided into 10 Lustra but it is abbreviated for some stations according to data availability. The concern about anthropogenic ozone depletion is derived from the finding by Farman et al in 1985 that ozone levels at HLB fell more than 100DU from the average value for October in 1957-1973 to the average value for October in 1980-1984. In comparison, changes of ±5DU from Lustrum to Lustrum seem inconsequential. In that light. On this basis, if we describe ±5DU per Lustrum as representative of random natural variability, what we see in Figure 30 is that, except for the two Antarctica stations (AMS and HLB), no average change in monthly mean ozone from Lustrum to Lustrum falls outside this rangeIt is therefore not likely that the HLB data reported by Farman et al can be generalized globally. We conclude from this analysis that the Farman etal study, the only empirical evidence thought to validate the Rowland Molina theory of ozone depletion, is flawed and therefore does not serve as evidence of anthropogenic ozone depletion. And yet, Farman etal 1985 served and still serves to this day as the sole empirical support for the ozone crisis that created the role for the UN in global environmentalism. These relationships imply that there is no empirical evidence to support the Rowland Molina Theory of Ozone Depletion and that therefore there is no evidence of human caused ozone depletion by way of CFC emissions. The occasional low ozone level over the South Pole described as an “ozone hole” and presented as evidence of ozone depletion is neither a hole in the ozone layer nor evidence of ozone depletion but natural variability understood in terms of the data presented above.

Montreal Protocol... - วิศวกรรมสิ่งแวดล้อม ม.เอเชียอาคเนย์ | Facebook

(POST#5): THE CLIMATE CRISIS CONNECTED TO THE OZONE CRISIS

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/03/03/climate-ozone-crisis/

Recommendations for Creating a Department of Sustainability and Climate  Change in NYC

SUMMARY: The claim that the the faster warming of the Arctic because of the GHG effect of ozone depleting substances is causing faster sea ice melt is inconsistent with the finding reported in a related post that the data do not support a causal relationship between AGW warming and year to year changes in Arctic sea ice [LINK] . Stratospheric ozone also causes warming such that ozone losses caused by ozone depleting substances would have a cooling effect on the Earth’s surface ([LINK] ). Therefore, the warming effect of ozone depleting substances should be computed net of the ozone depletion cooling they cause. Also the choice of the study period as 1955-2005 is curious. Of course 1971 falls somewhere in the middle here and that is when Lovelock found CFCs in the atmosphere and also 1989 is in there somewhere and that is when the Montreal Protocol went into effect and so perhaps by 2005, the CFCs were gone and we returned to the old fossil fuel theory. Yet, the essential nature of CFCs noted by Lovelock and also by Rowland Molina is that it is inert and that it can hang around in the atmosphere for 150 years. This property of CFCs makes it difficult to understand why the CFC warming effect ended in 2005. Of course, in 1989 we stopped making them but their gradual decline given their their inert property would take much longer. Yet another aspect of the ozone to climate connection with the success of anti CFC activism perhaps serving as an encouraging note for continued anti fossil fuel activism, is that empirical evidence of anthropogenic ozone depletion was presented in only one study that being Farman etal 1985 using data only from the South Pole and over a very short interval of time. The ozone depletion noted in that study is not found in long term trends of latitudinally weighted global mean total column ozone as shown in a related post  [LINK] . A key aspect of these findings is the strong support it provides for the Montreal Protocol as an effective international agreement that not only ended the ozone depletion crisis but also moderated climate change by reducing the contribution of ozone depleting substances. This glorious assessment of the Montreal Protocol is stated as “The success of the Montreal Protocol demonstrates superbly that international treaties to limit greenhouse gas emissions really do work; they can impact our climate in very favorable ways, and they can help us avoid dangerous levels of climate change“.  The insertion of this otherwise irrelevant statement into an investigation of warming anomalies in the period 1955-2005 may be the key to understanding this particular line of research and its odd findings. On the eve of COP26, and in the heels of 25 COP failures, climate activists may be giving up hope of the UN’s COP effort and its ability to put together a binding and effective international agreement for an overhaul of the world’s energy infrastructure away from fossil fuels. It is also noted that the study was based entirely on climate models. In that context, the finding of the research on the role of CFCs in global warming that leads to the conclusion of a glorious UN success of the Montreal Protocol in putting together a binding and effective international agreement that saved the ozone and even cooled the planet, is best understood as promotion for COP26 with the needed encouragement and positive outlook for the upcoming COP26. The reference to the Montreal Protocol derives from a frustration in climate science with the failure of the UN to deliver a Montreal Protocol for climate change.

Montreal Protocol... - วิศวกรรมสิ่งแวดล้อม ม.เอเชียอาคเนย์ | Facebook

(POST#6): THE OZONE MYSTERY DEEPENS

OZONEHOLEGIF

SUMMARY: The ozone hole has been used as a high profile issue in the fight against ODS and the only evidence of ozone depletion in support of the Rowland Molina theory of ozone depletion by ODS was ozone depletion in the South Pole by Farman et al, BUT the real ozone issue is not what happens at the South Pole or in any other specific location. The real issue is mean global TOTAL COLUMN OZONE. The Farman etal paper, the only empirical evidence of the Rowland Molina theory of ozone depletion, is flawed and therefore not credible [LINK] . BUT the primary flaw of the paper presented here is that it is not possible to interpret the effect of Montreal Protocol at decadal time scales because these changes are slow and they should be studied at LONGER time scales. The other issue is that the the impact of ozone depletion and ozone depleting substances should be studied on a global basis because they cannot be understood on a localized basis as discussed in the related post on Farman etal [LINK]. The ozone hole does not serve as evidence of global ozone depletion because ozone depletion has a global distribution interpretation.  In related posts it is shown that there is no empirical evidence of global ozone depletion or of its recovery by way of the Montreal Protocol [LINK] [LINK] [LINK] [LINK] [LINK] [LINK]  . The only empirical evidence of the Rowland Molina theory of ozone depletion is Farman etal 1985 and as shown here [LINK]  that study is flawed. The evidence of a causation relationship between ozone recovery and jet stream recovery (other than that they could not find any other explanation for it) is that they both began in the year 2000. This kind of coincidence as causation is common in climate science, as in “the industrial economy began burning fossil fuels and at the same time the atmospheric CO2 levels began to rise but these relationships do not prove causation as Tyler Vigen has so expertly demonstrated in his spurious correlation site [LINK] and as described in a related post [LINK]

CONCLUSION: THE ATTEMPT BY THE CITED PAPER TO RELATE JET STREAM CHANGES TO THE SUCCESS OF THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL IN THE REDUCTION OF OZONE DEPLETING SUBSTANCES AND THE HALTING OF OZONE DEPLETION IN THE STRATOSPHERE AT DECADAL TIME SCALES IS NOT CREDIBLE. THE PAPER’S INTENT IS THEREFORE INTERPRETED AS ACTIVISM TO PROMOTE THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL AS A MODEL FOR A CLIMATE ACTION POSSIBLY AS PREPARATION FOR THE UPCOMING COP26 CLIMATE MEETING IN GLASGOW. 

Montreal Protocol... - วิศวกรรมสิ่งแวดล้อม ม.เอเชียอาคเนย์ | Facebook

(POST#7): EMPIRICAL TEST OF OZONE DEPLETION WITH GROUND STATION DATA #1

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/09/30/ozone-depletion-part-2/

DATA ANALYSIS FOR GLOBAL MEAN TOTAL COLUMN OZONE FOR ALL GROUND STATIONS SHOWS THAT: The concern about ozone depletion is derived from the finding by Farman et al in 1985 that ozone levels at HLB fell more than 100DU from the average value for October in 1957-1973 to the average value for October in 1980-1984. In comparison, changes of ±5DU from Lustrum to Lustrum seem inconsequential. In that light, and somewhat arbitrarily if we describe ±5DU per Lustrum as insignificant and perhaps representative of random natural variability, what we see in Figure 30 is that, except for the two Antarctica stations (AMS and HLB), no average change in monthly mean ozone from Lustrum to Lustrum falls outside this range. It is therefore not likely that the HLB data reported by Farman et al can be generalized globally. We conclude from this analysis that the Farman etal study, the only empirical evidence thought to validate the Rowland Molina theory of ozone depletion, is flawed and therefore does not serve as evidence of anthropogenic ozone depletion. And yet, Farman etal 1985 served and still serves to this day as the sole empirical support for the ozone crisis that created the role for the UN in global environmentalism.

Montreal Protocol... - วิศวกรรมสิ่งแวดล้อม ม.เอเชียอาคเนย์ | Facebook

(POST#8): EMPIRICAL TEST OF OZONE DEPLETION WITH GROUND STATION DATA PART 2

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/10/01/ozone-depletion-part-3/

THIS POST IS A STUDY OF TRENDS IN GLOBAL MEAN TOTAL COLUMN OZONE WITH GROUND STATION DATA IN THE STUDY PERIOD 1966-2015

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is image-2.png

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS: The overall structure of changes in total column ozone levels over a 50-year sample period from 1966 to 2015 and across a range of latitudes from -90o to +71o shows that the data from Antarctica prior to 1990 represent a peculiar outlier condition specific to that time and place and not an enduring global pattern. The finding is inconsistent with the usual assumption that the Farman etal 1985 paper on a South Pole ozone event serves as empirical evidence for the Rowland-Molina theory of global chemical ozone depletion. The concern about ozone depletion is derived from the finding by Farman et al in 1985 that ozone levels at HLB fell at a rate of 6DU per year from the 1957-1973 average to the 1980-1984 average. The data presented below show that ozone depletion rates of 6DU/year and higher are seen only at the South Pole. Outside of the South Pole the mean ozone depletion rate is close to zero with an uncertainty range of +/- 1DU per year, a range perhaps indicative of random natural variability. It is therefore not likely that the HLB data reported by Farman et al can be generalized globally. Yet this extreme localized event was used to raise a global ozone depletion alarm that led to the involvement of the UN and the Montreal Protocol; and eventually an assumed authority of the UN over global environmentalism and the climate change alarmism of our time. Here we use ozone data from ground stations to carry out an empirical test of the RMTOD. Total column ozone (TCO) measurements made with Dobson spectrophotometers at twelve ground stations are used in this study. The stations are selected to represent a large range of latitudes with the latitudes classified into five groups as (1) high southern latitudes (90S to 60S), (2) mid- southern latitudes (60S to 30S), (3) Tropical (30S to 30N), (4) mid- northern latitudes (30N to 60N), and (5) high northern latitudes (60N to 90north). The data are provided by the NOAA and the BAS (British Antarctic Survey). As in Farman etal 1985, the ozone data are studied as five year (Lustrum) averages and not as annual data to smooth out data availability differences. These period definitions are not precise for the first and last Lustra. The first Lustrum is longer than five years for some stations and shorter than five years for others. The last Lustrum is imprecise because of the variability in the last month of data availability. The calendar month sequence is arranged from September to August in the tables and charts presented to maintain seasonal integrity. The seasons are roughly defined as follows: September-November (northern autumn and southern spring), December-February (northern winter and southern summer), March-May (northern spring and southern autumn), and June-August (northern summer and southern winter). Daily and intraday ozone data are averaged into monthly means for each period. These monthly means are then used to study trends across the ten Lustra for each calendar month and also to examine the average seasonal cycle for each Lustrum. Trends in mean monthly ozone and seasonal cycles are compared to examine the differences among latitudes. These patterns are then used to compare and evaluate the chemical and transport theories for changes in atmospheric ozone. The chemical explanation of these changes rests on the destruction of ozone by chlorine atoms derived from HHC (Molina, 1974) while the transport theory describes them in terms of the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) and polar vortices that transport ozone from the tropics where they are formed to the greater latitudes where they are more stable (Kozubek, 2012) (Butchart, 2014) (Tegtmeier, 2008) (Weber, 2011).

CONCLUSIONThe concern about ozone depletion is derived from the finding by Farman et al in 1985 that ozone levels at HLB fell by 6DU per year from the 1957-1973 average to the 1980-1984 average. The data presented below show that ozone depletion rates of 6DU/year and higher are seen only at the South Pole. Outside of the South Pole the mean ozone depletion rate is close to zero with an uncertainty range of +/- 1DU per year, a range perhaps indicative of random natural variability. It is therefore not likely that the HLB data reported by Farman et al can be generalized globally. Yet, it served as the sole basis of validating the Rowland Molina theory of ozone depletion. This event then gave rise to the ozone depletion alarm that in turn led to a global environmental role of the UN and the Montreal Protocol, and eventually an assumed authority of the UN over global environmentalism and the climate change alarmism of our time.

Montreal Protocol... - วิศวกรรมสิ่งแวดล้อม ม.เอเชียอาคเนย์ | Facebook

(POST#9): EMPIRICAL TEST OF OZONE DEPLETION WITH SATELLITE DATA

SUMMARY: Satellite based total ozone gridded data from the TOMS instrument (1979-1992) and the OMI instrument (2005-2015) are used to estimate latitudinally weighted global mean ozone levels. The global mean ozone values are found to have a regular seasonal cycle for daily data and irregular seasonal cycles for monthly mean data. The monthly mean data are examined for trends with OLS regression. In both datasets, statistically significant but practically insignificant trends are found that are contradictory. The older TOMS data show a depletion of mean monthly global ozone at a rate of 0.65 DU3 per year. The newer and possibly more reliable OMI data show an accretion of mean monthly global ozone at a rate of 0.5 DU per year. According to the chemical theory of ozone depletion subsumed by the UNEP and the Montreal Protocol, both of the sample periods tested lie within a regime of continuous destruction of total ozone on a global scale by long lived anthropogenic chemical agents. The weak and contradictory OLS trends found in this study cannot be explained in terms of this theory. The OLS assumption of independence is investigated with Rescaled Range analysis. It is found that the deseasonalized and detrended standardized residuals of daily mean global ozone levels in the OMI dataset 2005-2015 contain a high value of the Hurst exponent indicative of dependence, persistence, and long term memory. POLICY IMPLICATION: THE APPARENT MONTREAL PROTOCOL SUCCESS THAT VAULTED THE UNITED NATIONS INTO A GLOBAL ROLE IN CLIMATE CHANGE HAS NO SUPPORTING EVIDENCE. IT SHOULD ALSO BE MENTIONED THAT THERE IS NO ROLE FOR THE OZONE HOLE IN THE ROWLAND MOLINA THEORY OF OZONE DEPLETION. THE OZONE HOLE IS A LOCALIZED EVENT. THE ROWLAND MOLINA THEORY OF OZONE DEPLETION RELATES ONLY TO LONG TERM TRENDS IN GLOBAL MEAN OZONE LEVELNO SUCH TREND HAS EVER BEEN PRESENTED AS EVIDENCE PROBABLY BECAUSE NO SUCH TREND IS FOUND IN THE DATA. THE OZONE DEPLETION CRISIS AND ITS MONTREAL PROTOCOL SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE AN IMAGINED CRISIS THAT WAS SIMPLY DECLARED TO HAVE BEEN SOLVED.

Montreal Protocol... - วิศวกรรมสิ่งแวดล้อม ม.เอเชียอาคเนย์ | Facebook

(POST#10): THE OZONE HOLE OF 2020

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/04/the-ozone-hole-of-2020/

SUMMARY: The Rowland Molina Theory of Ozone Depletion (RMTOD) implies a gradual reduction in global mean total column ozone over long time scales 40 to 100 years. Localized changes in ozone concentration at brief time scales, particularly so at the poles, have no interpretation in terms of RMTOD. This is because the distribution of ozone from the tropics (where they form) to the greater latitudes contains extreme short term variability. These localized short term ozone dynamics do not have an RMTOD interpretation. The extreme and irrational focus on the South Pole at brief time scales as a measure of long term trends in global mean total column ozone is inconsistent with RMTOD and not empirical evidence for it. This faux practice at NASA, where such “ozone holes” are presented in the context of RMTOD, likely derives from the Farman etal 1985 paper that had presented short term South Pole ozone level variations as evidence of RMTOD and to this day that paper remains as the only empirical evidence in support of RMTOD. In a related post we show that Farman etal 1985 contains fatal methodological and statistical flaws and that therefore it provides neither evidence of a decline in global mean total column ozone nor a validation of RMTOD. LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/03/12/ozone1966-2015/

Briefly, RMTOD is about long term trends in global mean total column ozone which forms only in the Tropics and which is distributed to the higher latitudes by the Brewer Dobson circulation and by other means. These distributions are volatile and variable. The variability increases sharply with latitude. Therefore the dynamics of ozone concentration at the most extreme possible latitude do not contain useful information about global mean total column ozone. Therefore, “ozone hole” data have no interpretation in terms of RMTOD. Large variability in South Polar ozone levels has no RMTOD interpretation and the description of brief periods of low ozone levels there as some kind of a hole that we need to worry about has no scientific or empirical basis and no implication in terms of RMTOD.

Montreal Protocol... - วิศวกรรมสิ่งแวดล้อม ม.เอเชียอาคเนย์ | Facebook

(POST#11): THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF THE ARTICLE “LEARNING FROM A HEALING OZONE HOLE” FIRST PUBLISHED IN 2019 BY THE UNITED NATIONS ENVRONMENT PROGRAM (UNEP) TO SUGGEST THAT WE CAN HEAL THE CLIMATE CRISIS BECSUSE WE HEALED THE OZONE HOLE.

SUMMARY: CLAIM: Ever since humans first travelled into space, we have heard stories about the fragility of the pale blue dot that is our planet. This fragility is partially attributed to the Earth’s “paper-thin” atmosphere, the only protection we have from the darkness and emptiness of space and the interstellar objects and radiation that could be harmful to us, such as hurtling asteroids and ultraviolet radiation. The ozone shield, for example, our main protection against the Sun’s hostile rays, is only 20 km wide on average; let’s compare it to wrapping a 1cm-wide marble in a single layer of plastic wrap. If all the protection we have against volatile external forces is a single layer of plastic wrap, and that plastic wrap starts wearing thin and showing holes, it would be wise to take good care of it. This was the message the world received in the 1980s, when the Antarctic ozone hole was identified by researchers, just under a decade after scientists first mentioned ozone depletion. The message was clear; the ozone layer protected us from genetic damage and skin cancer, it was getting weaker, and human-made products were at the root of the issue.. RESPONSEThe ozone depletion issue is not about the thinness of the ozone layer nor about ozone holes. The ozone depletion issue was raised in the context of the Rowland Molina Theory of Ozone Depletion (RMTOD) that was constructed after James Lovelock discovered that halogenated hydrocarbons (HFC) used by humans as refrigerants and spray agents were inert and that therefore they had no natural sink in the troposphere where they tended to accumulate and where they could accumulate indefinitely. RMTOD proposed that given enough time, 40 to 100 years, by the random molecular motion in the atmosphere and their relative light molecular weight, CFC molecules could be transported high up to the stratospheric ozone layer. Once there, ultraviolet radiation could cause these molecules to break up and release chemically active chlorine free radicals that could act as chemical agents of ozone destruction. The testable implication of the RMTOD theory is not a localized and brief ozone depletion events over the South Pole referred to as ozone holes but a long term gradual decline in global mean total column ozone over the whole of the earth at all latitudes. The term ozone hole does not refer to a hole in the ozone layer that lets in harmful UV radiation. There is no such thing. The term ozone hole refers to localized ozone depletion events above the South Pole.

CLAIM: People around the world started to become increasingly cautious about a depletion of the ozone layer and ensuing risks it did not take long for governments to mobilize. Individual countries started banning products emitting CFCs, the main chemical guilty of ozone depletion, as early as the 1970s. In 1987 the world agreed to cap CFC production at 1986 levels and commit to long-term reductions. Under a decade later, CFC production was banned in developed countries, and developing countries followed soon after. RESPONSEThis statement is true except that “people around the world started to become increasingly cautious about ozone depletion” because they had been scared to death in a fearmongering campaign with horror stories about ozone depletion. This campaign actually began in the 1960s when the alleged agent of ozone depletion was the proposed development of supersonic airliners. The bizarre history of the ozone depletion scare is provided in a related post: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/07/history-of-the-ozone-depletion-scare/

CLAIM: The ozone case was time-sensitive, yet the battle against ozone depletion was a success like the world had never seen. In 2016, just 40 years since researchers first spoke of ozone depletion, a gradual trend toward ozone ‘healing’ was reported, and it is believed that the ozone layer will recover to 1980 levels near the middle of the 21st century. RESPONSEThe success that the world had never seen was also a UN managed solution to an environmental problem that never existed in the first place. It was a case of declare an imaginary problem, push through a proposed action plan that is proposed as a solution, and then simply declare the problem solved. As shown in related posts on this site there is no long declining trend in global mean total column ozone, and there never was a long term declining trend in global mean total column ozone. The only evidence presented was that there were brief low ozone events above the South Pole from time to time several years apart that have continued to recur to this day when the ozone depletion problem has apparently been solved. There are still low ozone events above the South Pole the most recent being the one seen this year in 2020 as described in a related post: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/04/the-ozone-hole-of-2020/ . No explanation has been provided for the anomaly that brief ozone depletion events over the South Pole (ozone holes) that were the only evidence every presented for ozone depletion continue to occur unabated even after the ozone depletion problem has been declared to have been solved by the heroic UNEP and its Montreal Protocol. We also note that he year 2016 is declared as “40 years since researchers first spoke of ozone depletion”. Kindly note, that in the modern era, researches first spoke of ozone depletion 57 years ago in 1963 when ozone depletion fearmongering had shout down the SST airliner program.

SUMMARY:

CLAIM: On this International Day for the Preservation of the Ozone Layer, themed “32 years and healing,” we can rightfully celebrate over three decades of remarkable international cooperation to protect the ozone layer. Ozone layer protection efforts have not just helped drive ozone healing but have also contributed to the fight against climate change by averting an estimated 135 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions. This shows that solutions can be advantageous on multiple fronts without watering down the benefits. This day also reminds us that we must keep up the momentum to establish a future of healthy people and a healthy planet. As we head into an era of ozone healing, let’s push to keep hold of these gains, particularly by remaining vigilant and tackling any illegal sources of ozone-depleting substances as they arise. We must also commit ourselves to the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, which entered into force on 1 January 2019 and aims for the phase-down of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs); this can simultaneously support the protection of the ozone layer and avoid further global temperature rise. Finally, let’s keep learning from ozone successes as we tackle other issues regarding chemicals and waste. Perhaps by looking at what did and didn’t work in reversing the damage done to the ozone layer, we can gain inspiration to halt and reverse the damages done by other hazardous chemicals. Congratulations to our chemicals family for caring for the ozone layer. Let’s keep on working for a chemical-safe future together! RESPONSEEven as the UN congratulates itself on the “International Day for the Preservation of the Ozone Layer”, we present data in related posts that the ozone layer has in fact been preserved and moreover that it had always been preserved as we see no evidence in the data of long term decline in total column ozone. Periodic and localized ozone depletion events over the South Pole do not serve as evidence of RMTOD as explained in below.

(POST#12): OZONE DEPLETION ENVIRONMENTALISM

SUMMARY: THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF AN ARTICLE BY THE INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT NETWORK FOR AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT (ISNAD) ON “HEALING THE OZONE LAYER” LINK: https://isnad-africa.org/2020/09/17/healing-the-ozone-layer/

WHAT THE ARTICLE SAYS

The ozone layer or ozone shield is a region of Earth‘s stratosphere that absorbs most of the Sun‘s ultraviolet radiation. It contains a high concentration of ozone (O3) in relation to other parts of the atmosphere, although still small in relation to other gases in the stratosphere. The ozone layer contains less than 10 parts per million of ozone, while the average ozone concentration in Earth’s atmosphere as a whole is about 0.3 parts per million. The ozone layer is mainly found in the lower portion of the stratosphere, from approximately 15 to 35 kilometers above Earth, although its thickness varies seasonally and geographically. The natural disasters that have beseeched man and the world at large has made man come to the realisation that action needs to be taken to start the healing of the Ozone layerThe adverse effects of the changing climate are a sad reality right before our eyes. For example, industrialization is credited for the massive developments the world has seen over the years. Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in the mid-1700s, however, human activities have added more and more of these gases into the atmosphere. The levels of carbon dioxide, a powerful greenhouse gas, have risen by 35 percent since 1750, largely from the burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas. With more greenhouse gases in the mix, the atmosphere acts like a thickening blanket and traps more heat. This has led to rising temperatures world over. More actions have been taken to protect the earth by focusing on the protection of the ozone layer. The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, also known simply as the Montreal Protocol, is an international treaty designed to protect the ozone layer by phasing out the production of numerous substances that are responsible for ozone depletion. The ozone layer can be depleted by free radical catalysts, including nitric oxide , nitrous oxide , hydroxyl , atomic chlorine and atomic bromine . While there are natural sources for all of these species, the concentrations of chlorine and bromine increased markedly in recent decades because of the release of large quantities of man-made organohalogen compounds, especially chlorofluorocarbons and bromofluorocarbons. These highly stable compounds are capable of surviving the rise to the stratosphere, where chlorofluorocarbons (CI) and bromofluorocarbons (Br) radicals are liberated by the action of ultraviolet lightEach radical is then free to initiate and catalyze a chain reaction capable of breaking down over 100,000 ozone molecules Signed 16 September 1987, it was made pursuant to the 1985 Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer, which established the framework for international cooperation in addressing ozone depletion. The Montreal Protocol entered into force on 1 January 1989, and has since undergone nine revisions, in 1990 (London), 1991 (Nairobi), 1992 (Copenhagen), 1993 (Bangkok), 1995 (Vienna), 1997 (Montreal), 1998 (Australia), 1999 (Beijing) and 2016 (Kigali). The concern of the world over the years has been to set the recovery of the Ozone layer through the constant revision of the Montreal Protocol. Since the Montreal Protocol came into effect, the atmospheric concentrations of the most important chlorofluorocarbons and related chlorinated hydrocarbons have either leveled off or decreased. Halon concentrations have continued to increase, as the halons presently stored in fire extinguishers are released, but their rate of increase has slowed and their abundances are expected to begin to decline by about 2020. Going forward the concern has been to ensure that existing restrictions on ozone-depleting substances are properly implemented and global use of ozone-depleting substances continue to be reduced. This reduction is what the world needs to make the full recovery of the ozone layer. Some of the efforts that have been implemented include: ensuring that banks of ozone-depleting substances (both in storage and contained in existing equipment) are dealt with in an environmentally-friendly manner and are replaced with climate-friendly alternatives. Ensuring that permitted uses of ozone-depleting substances are not diverted to illegal uses. Reducing use of ozone-depleting substances in applications that are not considered as consumption. The theme for 2020 is ’32 Years and Healing: “celebrating over three decades of remarkable international cooperation to protect the ozone layer and the climate under the Montreal Protocol.” This needs the continued efforts of everyone. Therefore, the United Nations saw it fit to reserve a day for people from all walks of life to celebrate the Ozone layer Day to raise awareness of the critical duty we have of helping in the healing of the Ozone Layer. The world is currently in the intensive care unit of the climate crisis but constant and careful implementation of the Montreal Protocol needs to take more precedence and the full recovery is even more feasible.

CRITICAL COMMENTARY

THE THEORY OF ANTHROPOGENIC OZONE DEPLETION BY WAY OF CFC OR HFC IMPLIES A LONG TERM DECLINING TREND IN GLOBAL MEAN TOTAL COLUMN OZONE BUT NO EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FOR SUCH A TREND HAS EVER BEEN PRESENTED BECAUSE NO SUCH TREND IS FOUND IN THE DATA. INSTEAD THE ONLY DATA PRESENTED IS PERIODIC, LOCALIZED, AND EPISODAL OZONE DEPLETION EVENTS ABOVE THE SOUTH POLE. THESE EVENTS ARE DESCRIBED AS “OZONE HOLES” AND PRESENTED AS EVIDENCE OF GLOBAL OZONE DEPLETION THAT CAN CAUSE SKIN CANCER ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD. NONE OF THIS IS TRUE. THE OZONE HOLE PHENOMENON HAS NO OZONE DEPLETION INTERPRETATION. IN RELATED POSTS ON THIS SITE WE PRESENT DATA FOR GLOBAL MEAN TOTAL COLUMN OZONE FOR TIME SPANS OF 50 YEARS OR MORE. THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF OZONE DEPLETION IN THE DATA. BELOW WE PRESENT A LIST OF LINKS TO OZONE DEPLETION POSTS ON THIS SITE FOLLOWED BY THE DATA FROM ONE OF THOSE POSTS AND A BRIEF SUMMARY OF OZONE DEPLETION CHEMISTRY.

28th Meeting of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol opens in Kigali,  Rwanda – Rwanda High Commission | London

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