THIS POST IS A STUDY OF ARTICLES PUBLISHED IN NOVEMBER 2020 IN WHICH A SERIES OF UNDERGROUND EXPLOSIONS IN THE YAMAL PENINSULA AND ADJACENT ARCTIC REGIONS OF SIBERIA ARE INTERPRETED AS A CLIMATE CHANGE HORROR WITH THE PROPOSITON THAT OUR RESPONSE SHOULD BE TO TAKE GLOBAL CLIMATE ACTION AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE BECAUSE GLOBAL WARMING COULD GO PAST THE POINT OF NO RETURN IN A MATTER OF DECADES AND ONCE THAT HAPPENS THERE WILL BE NOTHING WE CAN DO TO CONTROL THE RATE OF WARMING OR TO SAVE THE PLANET.

TO QUOTE: LIVESCIENCE, “The key is really limiting human emissions as quickly as possible, because in 30 or 40 or 50 years from now, if we have gone past that point, there will be nothing we can do about it.

LIVESCIENCE REPORT: LINK: https://www.livescience.com/58436-are-methane-explosions-causing-siberia-craters.html “Is the Siberian permafrost exploding? Recent reports out of the Arctic Circle suggest that methane pockets are erupting and causing huge craters, but scientists aren’t so sure that these features are necessarily the result of detonations or that they are even new. A Siberian Times article suggested that 7,000 underground gas bubbles are set to “explode” on the peninsulas of Yamal and Gydan as a result of melting permafrost. The article differentiates these small gas bubbles from enormous craters in the tundra landscape, but asserts that the huge craters are the result of subsurface methane gas exploding as global warming heats up Earth. That is far from certain, scientists told Live Science. In fact, the craters may be thousands of years old. These craters are recently discovered by scientists,” said Katey Walter Anthony, a biogeochemist at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks, who studies methane release from permafrost. “It doesn’t mean they are new.” Thawing Siberia: The permafrost of the Siberian tundra is definitely thawing. Permafrost is soil that stays frozen year-round; it locks up organic materials like dead plants (or the corpses of mammoths) and keeps them from rotting. When the permafrost thaws, all that organic material starts to decompose, like food left too long in a broken refrigerator. The decomposition releases carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, all potent greenhouse gases. Climate scientists agree that the permafrost melt will amplify the effects of greenhouse gases released by human activities, which could worsen the amount of warming the planet experiences. This methane from decomposition of ancient organic material shouldn’t be confused with methane hydrates, which are ice lattices that have methane trapped inside. Melting methane hydrates are another concern for the climate because their thaw could also release more of that greenhouse gas into the atmosphere. The most pervasive route for permafrost thaw in Siberia is what’s called active-layer deepening, said Ben Abbott, a postdoctoral researcher at Michigan State University. Every summer, the top layer of permafrost that thaws gets deeper and deeper. That’s happening across the Arctic and boreal forests. More dramatic are collapse features, known as thermokarsts. When frozen-solid soil melts, it can collapse in many ways, creating landslides, lakes, pits, even underground tunnels. Giant craters observed in Siberia over the past few years could be thermokarsts created when decomposition gases, such as methane, put pressure on the overlying earth, causing dirt-covered ice hills called pingos to explode. But even if the craters are caused by melting permafrost, that mechanism of formation is just speculation. Nobody has seen one [form], so we don’t know it if is an explosion or just a collapse. Nor are the craters necessarily human-caused. After all, permafrost has been melting since the end of the last ice age more than 10,000 years ago. People need to be a little more careful about claiming that we have methane explosions. Researchers found thousands of small underground gas pockets with high levels of methane and carbon dioxide dotting the landscape and more than 200 Arctic lakes are “bubbling with methane gas although these images reveal little about what’s actually bubbling up. The seeps could be methane, or other gases, or just groundwater. Without fieldwork, she said, any attempt to identify the bubbles is just guesswork. There are thousands of gas pockets in the tundra but given the size and inaccessibility of the Siberian Arctic, researchers have little knowledge of what a normal number of these features might be. Though permafrost melting could be a scary contributor to climate change, the tundra has not yet hit the “point of no return” at which runaway melt is inevitable. The key is really limiting human emissions as quickly as possible, because in 30 or 40 or 50 years from now, if we have gone past that point, there will be nothing we can do about it.

PART-2: CRITICAL COMMENTARY

As seen in the bibliography below, the Yamal Peninsula along with other adjacent Arctic regions of Siberia are geologically active with natural gas reserves. This area has a long history of sub-surface gas and methane formations that can explode particularly when they are in or under a pingo. A long history of this phenomenon in the paleo record goes back to the formation of the Yamal Crater. The geological explanation of these subsurface explosions is proposed in terms of cryo-volcanism that is a unique feature of the cold icy regions with natural gas deposits. The anthropogenic global warming interpretation of these events as harbingers of climate change gone out of control is probably best understood in terms of climate change activism’s need to push for climate action in the form of a binding global agreement to move the global energy infrastructure from fossil fuels to renewables. The weakness in this argument is acknowledged but then ignored in the interpretation of these subsurface gas explosions in terms of a heightened need for urgent climate action.

THE RELEVANT BIBLIOGRAPHY

1. Bogoyavlensky, Vasily, et al. “Complex of Geophysical Studies of the Seyakha Catastrophic Gas Blowout Crater on the Yamal Peninsula, Russian Arctic.” Geosciences 10.6 (2020): 215. This article describes the main results of two Arctic expeditions in 2017–2018 to study the Seyakha Crater in the north of Western Siberia, Yamal Peninsula. It was formed on a place of a pingo-like feature (PLF) by huge blowout, self-ignition, and explosion of gas on 28 June 2017. In 2018, for the first time, the integration of geophysical studies on the Yamal Peninsula revealed in detail an Arctic gas-blowout crater within a river channel and adjacent land with permafrost. On the basis of unmanned aerial vehicle photography, echo sounding, and ground penetrating radar survey data processing, a 3D digital elevation model (DEM) of the crater and the structure of near-surface deposits was created. A previously unknown uplift inside the permafrost layers, probably connected with the processes of gas chamber formation, was revealed. A long period of continuous gas emission (mainly, biogenic methane) from the Seyakha C11 Crater (2017–2019) and other existing data show evidence for a gas-dynamic mechanism of the PLF growth and a volcanic type of eruption.
2. Olenchenko, V. V., et al. “Results of geophysical surveys of the area of “Yamal crater”, the new geological structure.” Kriosfera Zemli 19 (2015): 84-95. Results of the field observations and geophysical surveys of the site of recently emerged geological formation known as the “Yamal crater” have been presented and discussed. The purpose of the research was to determine its origin. In 2014, permafrost and geomorphological observations, sampling of soil and water, geodetic and geophysical surveys were carried out, which revealed the absence of radiation anomalies. It has been demonstrated that the crater is contoured by circular negative anomalies of the magnetic field, and is confined to the intersection point of linear negative magnetic anomalies. It was found that the crater is located at the junction of geoelectrical structures, and geophysical characteristics defined for gas hydrate-bearing horizons occurring at a depth of 60–80 m. It is suggested that either deep gas migrated through faults or shallow occurring gas-hydrate decomposition could be the source of gas. The research findings have revealed that the crater was formed in the place of the preexisted pingo, and posed the problem of detecting hazardous pingos, which can be solved by integrated studies, including geocryological and geophysical surveys, and proof drilling.
3. Ivanov, K. S., N. P. Kostrov, and V. A. Koroteev. “The relationship among geodynamics, heat flow, deep structure, and the oil and gas potential of Yamal.” Doklady Earth Sciences. Vol. 486. No. 1. Pleiades Publishing, 2019. The amount of hydrocarbon deposits per unit area of Yamal Peninsula is more than 100 times as much as the global average. The hydrocarbon deposits are generally situated in areas with high current geodynamic activity. According to the data of seismic tomography, in the Yamal area, the mantle structure is abnormal. The southern part of the Kara Sea, the Yamal Peninsula, and the western part of the Gydan Peninsula are involved into the large positive anomaly of the heat flow density, the epicenter of which occurs in the vicinity of the Rusanovskoye deposit. Almost all hydrocarbon deposits of Yamal are situated on the flanks of the West Siberian rift system and, simultaneously, in the gradient zones of the heat flow density.
4. Novikov, D. A., F. F. Dultsev, and A. V. Chernykh. “Abnormally high formation pressures in jurassic-cretaceous reservoirs of Arctic regions of Western Siberia.” IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science. Vol. 193. No. 1. IOP Publishing Ltd., 2018. Results of the study of the structure of hydrodynamic fields in Arctic part of the West Siberian sedimentary basin have designated the main region-specific hydrodynamic feature consisting in the phenomenon of abnormally high formation pressures widely spread at depths of 2.8-6.0 km within Jurassic-Cretaceous reservoirs. The two types of natural pressurized water systems which have developed in the region are: 1) elision (geostatic and geodynamic) system most common in the interior regions, and 2) infiltration aquifer system inherent in the external, near edge zones. As the depth increases, two hydrodynamic zones are distinctly distinguished (from top downwards): hydrostatic and enhanced evolving into AHFD (abnormally high formation pressure). Most of the Aptian-Albian-Cenomanian aquifers belong to the first type. Hydrodynamic field stresses tend to increase in the lower lying Neocomian complex where the already elevated formation pressures gradually build up, to the extent of AHFP in the lower horizons. The Jurassic aquifer complexes in the central parts of the Yamal-Kara depression exhibit either enhanced or abnormally high formation pressures, which decline to hydrostatic levels towards the basin periphery. The anomaly coefficients of formation pressure reach the value of 2.2. The established piezo-minima zones extending along major petroleum charge zones, extending along the major hydrocarbon generation zones (Bolshaya Kheta and Kara megasyneclises) associated with the largest areas of petroleum accumulation (Vankor-Suzun, Bovanenkovo, Urengoy, etc.).
5. Surikova, E. S., A. E. Solmin, and S. M. Guseva. “Regional model of the geological structure of the Yamal and Gydan oil-and-gas areas.” IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science. The Fifth All-Russian Conference with International Participation “Polar Mechanics”(Novosibirsk, Russian Federation, 9-11 October 2018). Vol. 193. 2018. Despite the fact that a number of hydrocarbon fields have been discovered on the Yamal and Gydan Peninsula, including large gas fields, there is still no generalized regional model for geologists. In connection with the appearance in recent years of new geological information (2D, 3D seismic, logging, drilling of well Gydanskaya № 130), the authors believe it makes sense to reinterpret seismic data using new information too.
6. Novikov, D. A. “Genetic classification of subsurface waters and brines of Arctic regions of Siberia.” IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science. Vol. 193. No. 1. IOP Publishing Ltd., 2018. Specificity of hydrogeological aspects of the Siberian sedimentary basins is most pronounced in their Arctic part where the saltless type the cross section grades into saline type in the direction from the Yamal Peninsula (as part of the West Siberian sedimentary basin), passing through the Yenisei-Khatanga basin as far as the Anabar-Khatanga basin with salt domes in its structure. It has been established that the modern chemistry of groundwaters and brines of petroleum-bearing deposits is a product of long-term geological evolution affected by many geological and hydrogeological factors. Slightly metamorphosed groundwaters and weak brines of sodium chloride, chloride-bicarbonate sodium and sodium bicarbonate-chloride composition, with the TDS value varying from 2 to 63.3 g/dm³ (after S. A. Shchukarev) are widely developed within the West Siberian and the Yenisei-Khatanga basins. Subsurface brines from the areas adjacent to the Anabar-Khatanga basin are found to be dominantly sodium chloride in composition, with TDS value varying from 52.3 to 312.3 g/dm³, while those identified in the adjacent areas of the Siberian platform are strongly metamorphosed, of sodium chloride, sodium-calcium and calcium composition, with the TDS value up to 480 g/dm³. Results of the detailed hydrogeochemistry analysis of petroleum reservoirs and paleohydrological history of Arctic parts of the Siberian sedimentary basins have prompted the presence of three genetic groups of subsurface waters in their section: infiltrogenic, sedimentogenic and condensatogenic. The first group includes modern and ancient infiltrogenic waters and brines resulting from salt domes leaching; the second group is composed of sedimentogenic waters (including brines), lithogenic waters and cryopegs. Comprising condensatogenic waters formed syngenetically with the hydrocarbon pools, the third group represents a special type, since the “water-rock-gas-organic matter” system has largely affected the processes of formation of their chemical composition.
7. Rozanov, A. G. “Geochemistry of the bottom sediments in the Kara Sea west of the Yamal Peninsula.” Oceanology 55.2 (2015): 263-272. The geochemical processes of sedimentation and diagenesis of bottom sediments west of the Yamal Peninsula occur on the background of high variability in the hydrological, chemical, and biological conditions of the Kara Sea. Despite the apparent absence of runoff in this area, the bottom sediments are markedly influenced by river runoff, the relatively high biological productivity of waters, and the entry of organic matter, which determines the specific character of the sediment diagenesis. Chemical analysis of samples of surface sediments and pore waters collected during the 54th trip of the R/V Akademik Mstislav Keldysh in 2007 indicate the known stages of organic matter oxidation by inorganic components, including oxygen, oxyhydroxides of manganese and iron, sulfates, and carbon acid.
8. Chuvilin, Evgeny, et al. “A Gas-Emission Crater in the Erkuta River Valley, Yamal Peninsula: Characteristics and Potential Formation Model.” Geosciences 10.5 (2020): 170. Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas, and the abrupt degassing events that recently have formed large craters on the Russian Arctic Yamal and Gydan Peninsulas have caused major concern. Here we present field data on cover sediments and evolution of a gas-emission crater discovered in the Erkuta–Yakha River valley in the southern Yamal Peninsula in June 2017. The crater is located south of other similar craters discovered over the past decade in northern West Siberia. Data were collected during a field trip to the Erkuta crater in December 2017 which included field observations and sampling of permafrost soil and ground ice from the rim of the crater. All soil and ice samples were measured for contents of methane and its homologs (ethane and propane) and carbon dioxide. The contents of carbon dioxide in some samples are notably higher than methane. The strongly negative δ13С of methane from ground ice samples (−72‰) is typical of biogenic hydrocarbons. The ratio of methane to the total amount of its homologs indicate a component of gases that have migrated from a deeper, thermogenic source. Based on obtained results, a potential formation model for Erkuta gas-emission crater is proposed, which considers the combined effect of deep-seated (deep gas migration) and shallow (oxbow lake evolution and closed talik freezing) causes. This model includes several stages from geological prerequisites to the lake formation.
9. Buldovicz, Sergey N., et al. “Cryovolcanism on the earth: origin of a spectacular crater in the Yamal peninsula (Russia).” Scientific reports 8.1 (2018): 1-6. Geological activity on icy planets and planetoids includes cryo-volcanism. Until recently, most research on terrestrial permafrost has been engineering-oriented, and many related phenomena have received too little attention. Although fast processes in the Earth’s cryosphere were known before, they have never been attributed to cryovolcanism. The discovery of a couple of tens of meters wide crater in the Yamal Peninsula aroused numerous hypotheses of its origin, including a meteorite impact or migration of deep gas as a result of global warming. However, the origin of the Yamal crater can be explained in terms of cryospheric processes. Thus, the Yamal crater appears to result from collapse of a large pingo, which formed within a thaw lake when it shoaled and dried out allowing a large talik (that is layer or body of unfrozen ground in a permafrost area) below it to freeze back. The pingo collapsed under cryogenic hydrostatic pressure built up in the closed system of the freezing talik. This happened before the freezing completed, when a core of wet ground remained unfrozen and stored a huge amount of carbon dioxide dissolved in pore water. This eventually reached gas-phase saturation, and the resulting overpressure came to exceed the lithospheric confining stress and the strength of the overlying ice. As the pingo exploded, the demarcation of the crater followed the cylindrical shape of the remnant talik core.
10. Bogoyavlensky, Vasily, et al. “Complex of Geophysical Studies of the Seyakha Catastrophic Gas Blowout Crater on the Yamal Peninsula, Russian Arctic.” Geosciences 10.6 (2020): 215. This article describes the main results of two Arctic expeditions in 2017–2018 to study the Seyakha Crater in the north of Western Siberia, Yamal Peninsula. It was formed on a place of a pingo-like feature (PLF) by huge blowout, self-ignition, and explosion of gas on 28 June 2017. In 2018, for the first time, the integration of geophysical studies on the Yamal Peninsula revealed in detail an Arctic gas-blowout crater within a river channel and adjacent land with permafrost. On the basis of unmanned aerial vehicle photography, echo sounding, and ground penetrating radar survey data processing, a 3D digital elevation model (DEM) of the crater and the structure of near-surface deposits was created. A previously unknown uplift inside the permafrost layers, probably connected with the processes of gas chamber formation, was revealed. A long period of continuous gas emission (mainly, biogenic methane) from the Seyakha C11 Crater (2017–2019) and other existing data show evidence for a gas-dynamic mechanism of the PLF growth and a volcanic type of eruption.