THIS POST IS A DETRENDED CORRELATION ANALYSIS OF ANNUAL CHANGES IN MAUNA LOA CO2 CONCENTRATIONS AGAINST ANNUAL FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS.

IN PRIOR WORKS IT WAS SHOWN WITH DETRENDED CORRELATION ANALYSIS AND MONTE CARLO SIMULATION THAT NO EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE IS FOUND IN THE DATA THAT ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION IS RESPONSIVE TO FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS. THESE RELATED POSTS ARE LINKED BELOW.

RELATED POST#1: CORRELATION ANALYSIS https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/12/19/co2responsiveness/

RELATED POST#2: MONTE CARLO SIMULATION#1 OF THE EFFECT OF UNCERTAINTY IN CARBON CYCLE FLOWS: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/05/31/the-carbon-cycle-measurement-problem/

RELATED POST#3: MONTE CARLO SIMULATION#2 OF THE EFFECT OF UNCERTAINTY IN CARBON CYCLE FLOWS: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/06/10/a-monte-carlo-simulation-of-the-carbon-cycle/

RELATED POST#4: A SURVEY OF GEOLOGICAL CARBON FLOWS THAT ARE NOT CONSIDERED IN THE DYNAMICS OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/08/27/carbonflows/

ABSTRACT: THE DATA FOR ANNUAL FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS AND ANNUAL CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION DO NOT SHOW THAT FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS CAUSE ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION TO CHANGE. THE FINDING IMPLIES THAT THERE IS NO EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE IN SUPPORT OF THE THEORY OF CLIMATE ACTION. THIS THEORY HOLDS THAT MOVING THE GLOBAL ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FROM FOSSIL FUELS TO RENEWABLES WILL MODERATE THE RATE OF INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC CO2 AND THEREBY MODERATE THE RATE OF WARMING.

IN THIS STUDY WE EXAMINE THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ANNUAL FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS AND ANNUAL CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION. THE ALTERNATE HYPOTHESIS IS THAT ANNUAL FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS EXPLAIN ANNUAL CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION. THE NULL HYPOTHESIS IS THAT ANNUAL FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS DO NOT EXPLAIN ANNUAL CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION. THE DATA AND THEIR ANALYSIS ARE PRESENTED BELOW WITH A SERIES OF CHARTS. A DISCUSSION OF THE INFORMATION CONTENT OF THESE CHARTS FOLLOWS AT THE END OF THE GRAPHICAL PRESENTATION.

CHART#1: ANNUAL FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS

CHART#2: ANNUAL CHANGES IN MLO CO2

CHART#3: THE CORRELATION BETWEEN ANNUAL FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS AND ANNUAL CHANGES IN MLO CO2 = 0.75

CHART#4: ANNUAL FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS DETRENDED

CHART#5: ANNUAL CHANGES IN MLO CO2 DETRENDED

CHART#6: DETRENDED CORRELATION BETWEEN ANNUAL CHANGES IN MLO CO2 AND ANNUAL FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS = 0.1615

CHART#7: HYPOTHESIS TEST

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: THE SOURCE DATA SHOW A STRONG STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT CORRELATION OF CORR=0.75 BETWEEN ANNUAL CHANGES IN MLO CO2 AND ANNUAL EMISSIONS. THIS CORRELATION APPEARS TO SUPPORT THE USUAL ASSUMPTION THAT CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION ARE CAUSED BY FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS AND THAT THEREFORE THESE CHANGES CAN BE MODERATED WITH CLIMATE ACTION TO CONTROL AND REDUCE THE RATE OF WARMING.

HOWEVER, IT IS KNOWN THAT SOURCE DATA CORRELATION BETWEEN TIME SERIES DATA DERIVE FROM TWO SOURCES. THESE ARE (1) SHARED TRENDS WITH NO CAUSATION IMPLICATION AND (2) RESPONSIVENESS AT THE TIME SCALE OF INTEREST. HERE THE TIME SCALE OF INTEREST IS ANNUAL BECAUSE THE THEORY REQUIRES THAT ANNUAL CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION ARE CAUSED BY ANNUAL FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS. THIS TEST IS MADE BY REMOVING THE SHARED TREND THAT IS KNOWN TO HAVE NO CAUSATION INFORMATION OR IMPLICATION. HERE WE FIND THAT WHEN THE SHARED TREND IS REMOVED THE OBSERVED CORRELATION DISAPPPEARS. THE APPARENT CORRELATION BETWEEN EMISSIONS AND CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION IS THUS FOUND TO BE SPURIOUS.

THE DATA FOR ANNUAL FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS AND ANNUAL CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION DO NOT SHOW THAT FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS CAUSE ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION TO CHANGE. THE FINDING IMPLIES THAT THERE IS NO EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE IN SUPPORT OF THE THEORY OF CLIMATE ACTION. THIS THEORY HOLDS THAT MOVING THE GLOBAL ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FROM FOSSIL FUELS TO RENEWABLES WILL MODERATE THE RATE OF INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC CO2 AND THEREBY MODERATE THE RATE OF WARMING.