GLOBALWARMING 1979-2020

Posted by: chaamjamal on: October 27, 2020

In: Uncategorized
Leave a Comment

Global Warming, Reality or a Business Trick | by Mit-ra Industries | Medium

Keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees: really hard, but not impossible

THIS POST IS A GRAPHICAL PRESENTATION OF THE UAH LOWER TROPOSPHERE TEMPERATURE DATASET 1979-2020.

COMMENTARY

DATA AND METHODS: UAH lower troposphere temperature data from 1979 to 2020 are used to examine global warming patterns across eight latitudinal regions of the globe. These are 1. [global land and ocean], 2. [global land only], 3. [global ocean only], and both land and ocean in these sub-global regions 4. [tropics], 5. [northern extent], 6. [southern extent], 7. [north polar region], and 8. [south polar region]. The data are studied separately for the twelve calendar months to accommodate significant differences among the calendar months. Full span warming trends along with decadal trends in a moving 10-year are studied. The moving decadal window moves through the time series one year at a time. The graphical presentation of the data include a GIF image that cycles through the twelve calendar months displaying the temperature and decadal trend patterns across the full span of the data from 1979 to 2020.An annualized summary of the data in the GIF image is provided under the GIF image. As of this writing, data for the months of October to December are not available for the year 2020 and these values were estimated from an extrapolation of the pattern seen in the previous two years.

FINDINGS: (1) The annualized summary of full span temperature trends shows large differences in warming rates among the calendar months with significant regional differences. For global land and ocean, these trend values range from 0.0115C/year in June to 0.0160/year for February and September. The warming rates are much higher for land and somewhat lower for ocean.

(2) An interesting pattern seen in the trends of the decadal trends. Most months show a strong acceleration in the warming rate near the end of the time series beginning somewhere around 2008 and gaining intensity all the way to 2020. This behavior varies among the calendar months in terms of the steepness of the acceleration and among the regions in terms the number of calendar months that show this behavior as well as the steepness of the annual mean acceleration. The strongest acceleration is seen in the Northern Extent region and the Tropics. The weakest acceleration is seen in the Polar regions with the South Polar region showing deceleration. In terms of surface type, land warming rates and accelerations are stronger than ocean warming rates and accelerations.

(3) The strong acceleration of the warming rate towards the end of the time series that sustains and gets stronger over time appears to be inconsistent with recent reports in online sources that the CO2 greenhouse effect of the atmosphere is approaching saturation such that warming is expected to stop when saturation is reached {LINK: https://climatechangedispatch.com/study-more-co2-will-have-little-to-no-impact-on-global-warming/

(4) In terms of the full span warming trend, large differences are seen among the calendar months and this monthly pattern varies significantly among the regions. This pattern is as follows: Global: Strongest warming: February and September. Weakest warming: June to August. Tropics: Strongest warming: July and August. Weakest warming: March and April. Northern Extent: Strongest warming: February and March. Weakest warming: July & August. Southern Extent: Strongest Warming: January. Weakest warming: March, April, and May. North Polar: Strongest warming in July. Weakest in April. South Polar: Strongest warming: January to March. Weakest Warming: November and December when it is actually COOLING.

(5) The oddities of the Polar Regions are that the North Polar region is warming the fastest with a mean annual full span warming rate of all calendar months of 0.0250C/year while the South Polar Region is warming the slowest with a negative warming so that it is actually cooling at an rate of 0.009C/year. The corresponding rates for Global warming are: Global land and ocean = 0.0138C/year, Global land only is higher at 0.0187C/year, and Global ocean only correspondingly lower at 0.0199C/year. Of the other three regions, the Northern Extent is warming the fastest at a rate of 0.0183C per year with the Tropics at 0.0132/year and the Southern Extent warming at the lower rate of 0.01C per year.

(6) The most significant highlights of the data are (a) the observed steep acceleration in decadal warming rates towards the end of the time span that appear contrary to the proposition that global warming is slowing down and getting ready to stop, (b) the virtual absence of global warming in the South Polar Region that appears to be inconsistent with the generally held belief in climate science that ice melt events in geologically active Antarctica are caused by global warming, and (c) the observed extreme difference among the calendar months in warming behavior.