Thongchai Thailand

CLIMATE CONFUSION AT THE WMO?

Posted on: October 13, 2020

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF A CLIMATE CHANGE ARTICLE PUBLSIHED BY THE CONVERSATION CITING THE WMO: LINK TO SOURCE: https://theconversation.com/earth-may-temporarily-pass-dangerous-1-5-warming-limit-by-2024-major-new-report-says-145450

United in Science report: Climate Change has not stopped for COVID19 | World  Meteorological Organization

CLAIM: The Paris climate agreement seeks to limit global warming to 1.5℃ this century. A new report by the World Meteorological Organisation warns this limit may be exceeded by 2024and the risk is growing. This first overshoot beyond 1.5℃ would be temporary, likely aided by a major climate anomaly such as an El Niño weather pattern. However, it casts new doubt on whether Earth’s climate can be permanently stabiliZed at 1.5℃ warming. This finding is among those just published in a report titled United in Science prepared by six leading science agencies, including the Global Carbon Project. RESPONE: Anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is a theory about long term trends in global mean temperature caused by the fossil fuel emissions of human activity. Natural short term climate events such as El Nino are part of nature’s INTERNAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY described in a related post [LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/07/16/the-internal-variability-issue/ . The attempt by the authors of an article on AGW climate change to interpret Internal Climate Variability as an AGW climate change issue serves as evidence not of a greater horror of AGW than previously thought but of the inadequate understanding of the AGW issue by the authors of the article. The AGW issue must be understood in terms of long term trends in global mean temperature that overlays regional and episodic weather and climate events. These events are part of natural internal climate variability. They have no interpretation in terms of in AGW climate change. Not just ENSO, but the Arctic and North Atlantic oscillations are also part of internal climate variability that is entirely natural and not part of AGW climate change.

File:3 examples of internal climate variability (1950-2012), the El Niño –  Southern Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation, and the North Atlantic  Oscillation (NOAA).png - Wikimedia Commons

CLAIM: The report also found while greenhouse gas emissions declined slightly in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, they remained very high – which meant atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations have continued to rise. Concentrations measured at Hawaii’s Mauna Loa Observatory and at Australia’s Cape Grim station in Tasmania show concentrations continued to increase in 2019 and 2020. In particular, CO₂ concentrations reached 414.38 and 410.04 parts per million in July this year, respectively, at each station. RESPONSE: It is true that atmospheric carbon dioxide has continued to rise without any change in the rate of the rise. This result is inconsistent with the theory of AGW climate change because at the very foundation of this theory is the proposition that the observed rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration is a creation of fossil fuel emissions and that this rise will come to a stop if we stop using fossil fuels by changing over to renewables such as wind and solar, and that it can be slowed by reducing the rate of emissions. That the reduction in emissions has not slowed the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration is not evidence that anthropogenic global warming with fossil fuel emissions is worse that previously thought or that “the world may exceed the 1.5℃ warming threshold sooner than previously thought. It is evidence that the theory of anthropogenic global warming with fossil fuel emissions is flawed because the essential causation of rising atmospheric CO2 concentration at the very foundation of this theory is proven false.

This issue is described in some detail in a related post: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/09/23/emission-reduction-atmospheric-co2/

CLAIM: Arctic Ocean sea-ice is disappearing. Satellite records between 1979 and 2019 show sea ice in the Arctic summer declined at about 13% per decade, and this year reached its lowest July levels on record. RESPONSE: Arctic sea ice is not disappearing. Sea ice there goes through a violent seasonal melt and growth cycle every year with the minimum sea ice extent and volume reached in the month of September. The loss of summer minimum sea ice extent at 1.3% per year on average is miniscule compared with the seasonal cycle in which 90% of the winter maximum is gone in September every year. The greater issue here is that the attribution of the observed decline in September minimum sea ice extent to anthropogenic global warming and the implied proposition is that it can and must be moderated by taking climate action are not supported by the evidence. As shown in these related posts: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/11/07/precipitous-decline-in-arctic-sea-ice-volume/ LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/09/28/sea-ice-extent-area-1979-2018/ . The data do show a long term decline in September minimum sea ice but the necessary correlation at an annual time scale with the relevant AGW atmospheric temperature is not found.

It should be noted that the Arctic is geologically very active as described in a related post at this site: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/07/01/arctic/ and as seen in the images below. Geological heat from submarine volcanism and mantle plumes in this region must be considered to understand the observed sea ice dynamics.

arctic-sea-ice3

bandicam 2019-07-01 16-29-44-526
arctic-sea-ice2

CLAIM: In Antarctica, summer sea ice reached its lowest and second-lowest extent in 2017 and 2018, respectively, and 2018 was also the second-lowest winter extent. RESPONSE: There are no long term trends in summer minimum sea ice extent in Antarctica as shown in a related post on this site: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/06/antarctic-sea-ice-1979-2018/ . There have been some spectacular sea ice melt events in Antarctica but these events cannot be understood as trends and they have no interpretation in terms of anthropogenic global warming: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/07/02/antarctic-sea-ice-collapse-of-2019/

antarctic-sea-ice-photo

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