Thongchai Thailand

A MATHEMATICAL INCONSISTENCY

Posted on: August 26, 2020

Inconsistent Equation: Definition & Examples | Study.com
Consistent Independent, Dependent and Inconsistent - YouTube
Line graph of global carbon emissions from fossil fuels.  It shows a slow increase from about 500 million metric tons in 1990 to about 1,500 in 1950. After 1950, the increase in emissions is more rapid, reaching almost 9,900 in 2014.

THIS POST IS A COMPARISON OF THE ECS AND TCR, THE TWO METHODS USED INTERCHANGEABLY IN CLIMATE SCIENCE TO RELATE WARMING TO FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS. THE COMPARISON IS MADE IN TERMS OF MATHEMATICAL CONSISTENCY.

Tip of the Week: What's with all the inconsistency? | Change ...

THE EQUILIBRIUM CLIMATE SENSITIVITY ECS

The ECS measure of the impact of fossil fuel emissions on warming holds that atmospheric CO2 concentration at any given time is a linear function of cumulative emissions and that surface temperature is a logarithmic function of atmospheric CO2 concentration. These two relationships imply that surface temperature is a logarithmic function of cumulative emissions. That in turn implies that the amount of warming caused by a given level of cumulative emissions is the difference between the logarithms of the two cumulative emissions before and after.

TRANSIENT CLIMATE RESPONSE TO CUMULATIVE EMISSIONS TCR

The TCR measure of the impact of fossil fuel emissions on warming holds that the amount of warming is a linear function of cumulative emissions. This linearity is mathematically inconsistent with the ECS measure which implies that the amount of warming is proportional to the difference between the logarithms of the cumulative emissions before and after the period of warming under study.

IMPLICATIONS OF THIS MATHEMATICAL INCONSISTENCY

The mathematical inconsistency described above shows that the significant research effort in climate science to resolve the ECS and TCR measures of anthropogenic warming in terms of fossil fuel emissions with Earth System Models {ESM} is not possible because the two methods of computing the impact of emissions on temperature are not mathematically consistent.

CONFIRMATION BIAS, CIRCULAR REASONING, AND MATHEMATICAL IMPOSSIBILITY OF EARTH SYSTEM MODELS {ESM}

In a related post on ESM {https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/08/25/earth-system-models-and-carbon-budgets/} we argue that the ESM construction procedure of beginning with the TCR warming derived from cumulative emissions and then explaining the result from an arbitrarily expanded list of ECS climate drivers is a form of circular reasoning. In this post we find that a further and more serious flaw in this procedure is the mathematical impossibility of the ESM exercise of reconciling ECS and TCR .

Massachusetts Institute of Technology Earth System Model of ...
PDF] Earth-system models of intermediate complexity | Semantic Scholar

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