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THE GDP IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Posted on: June 26, 2020

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[RELATED POST ON CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS]

 

THIS POST IS A STUDY OF THE CLAIM THAT AN IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING IS A DECLINE IN GDP [LINK]. HERE WE PRESENT HISTORICAL DATA FOR THE SAME HYPOTHESIS IN THE STUDY PERIOD 1850 TO 2016 AND PRESENT THE OBSERVED RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GLOBAL WARMING AND GDP. 

Reserve Bank warns of 25% GDP loss by 2100 unless action taken on climate change

 

 

PART-1: THE HISTORICAL DATA

 

FIGURE 1: GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE 1850-20160001TEMP

 

 FIGURE 2: GLOBAL GDP 1850-20160001GL1

 

FIGURE 3: PER CAPITA GDP IN THE UK 1850-20160001UK1

FIGURE 4: GLOBAL GDP AND GLOBAL WARMING0001GL2

 

FIGURE 5: UK PER CAPITA GDP AND GLOBAL WARMING0001UK2

 

 

PART-2: EVALUATION OF THE CLAIM THAT GLOBAL WARMING CAUSES GDP LOSS

THE DATA PRESENTED ABOVE DO NOT SUPPORT THE PROPOSITION THAT GLOBAL WARMING CAUSES GDP TO DECLINE. WHAT WE SEE INSTEAD IS A POSITIVE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THESE TWO VARIABLES. IF THE RESERVE  BANK SUGGESTS THAT THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GLOBAL WARMING AND GDP IS A CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP IN WHICH WARMING IS THE AGENT OF CAUSATION AND GDP IS THE EFFECT, THEN THE INTERPRETATION OF THE DATA PRESENTED IS THAT GLOBAL WARMING CAUSES GDP TO RISE.

IT SHOULD BE MENTIONED THAT THE CLIMATE SCIENCE INTERPRETATION OF THIS RELATIONSHIP IS THE OTHER WAY AROUND. WHAT CLIMATE SCIENCE SAYS IS THAT GLOBAL WARMING DOES NOT CAUSE GDP BUT GDP CAUSES GLOBAL WARMING BY WAY OF THE FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS OF GDP CREATION. THIS CLIMATE SCIENCE INTERPRETATION IMPLIES THAT IT IS NOT CLIMATE CHANGE BUT CLIMATE ACTION THAT REDUCES GDP. IN EITHER CASE, THE RESERVE BANK PROPOSITION IS FALSIFIED. 

THE ODDITY THAT ALL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS TO FEAR ARE IN THE FUTURE AND NEVER IN THE PAST IMPLIES AN ABSENCE OF EMPIRICAL SUPPORT FOR THESE FEARS. THEREFORE THESE FEARS ARE THE CREATION OF CLIMATE ACTIVISM, NOT CLIMATE SCIENCE [LINK] .

 

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