Thongchai Thailand

GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM GLOBAL COOLING

Posted on: June 16, 2020

THERE HAVE BEEN REPEATED CLAIMS BY AGW SKEPTICS ANTICIPATING A GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM THAT GLOBAL WARMING IS HISTORY AND THAT GLOBAL COOLING IS HERE [2019 POST ON GLOBAL COOLING] 

AS SEEN IN THE IMAGES ABOVE, THESE CLAIMS HAVE PERSISTED EVEN AFTER THE 2019 PREDICTIONS DID NOT MATERIALIZE [LINK] [LINK] . THIS POST IS A CRITICAL EVALUATION OF THESE CLAIMS SEEN IN 2020. BELOW WE PRESENT DECADAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS SEEN IN THE UAH LOWER TROPOSPHERE DATA FOR GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURES AND GLOBAL MEAN LAND TEMPERATURES. 

 

 

FIGURE 1: DECADAL TRENDS IN GLOBAL MEAN TEMP

G-GIF

 

FIGURE 2: DECADAL TRENDS IN GLOBAL MEAN LAND TEMP

L-GIF

 

IN THE GIF CHARTS ABOVE, THE RED CURVE TRACKS THE DECADAL MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE TREND FOR THE DECADE ENDING IN EACH YEAR FORM 1988 TO 2020. IN BOTH IMAGES, THE DECADAL TREND WINDOW MOVES THROUGH THE TIME SERIES ONE YEAR AT A TIME. EACH GIF IMAGE CYCLES THROUGH THE SIX CALENDAR MONTHS FROM JANUARY TO JUNE. THE HORIZONTAL BLACK LINE MARKS THE ZERO TREND POSITION. TRENDS ABOVE THE BLACK LINE ARE WARMING TRENDS. THOSE BENEATH THE BLACK LINE ARE COOLING TRENDS. THE CURVES IN THE LINE HAVE A TREND INTERPRETATION. WHEN IT IS MOVING DOWNWARD, WE CAN THINK OF IT AS MOVING TOWARD A COOLING TREND. LIKEWISE AN UPWARD CURVE IS A MOVE TOWARDS A WARMING TREND. 

FIGURE 1: THESE DECADAL TRENDS AND TRENDS OF DECADAL TRENDS FOR GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURES, BOTH LAND AND OCEAN, ARE PRESENTED IN FIGURE 1. HERE WE FIND SOME WEAK COOLING PERIODS PRIOR TO 1998 AND STRONGER COOLING PERIODS BETWEEN 2006 AND 2012 WITH A PARTICULARLY INTENSE DECADAL COOLING PERIOD ENDING IN THE YEAR 2012. NO DECADAL COOLING PERIOD IS FOUND AFTER THE YEAR 2015. MORE TO THE POINT, THE DECADAL TREND CURVE ENDS THE STUDY PERIOD WITH AN UPWARD SLOPE. THIS GIF DISPLAY OF THE DECADAL TRENDS IN GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE DOES NOT APPEAR TO SHOW EVIDENCE OF THE END OF GLOBAL WARMING AND THE BEGINNING OF THE GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM COOLING CLAIMED BY THE AUTHORS OF THE CITED WORKS ABOVE. 

FIGURE 2THE SAME ANALYSIS IS PRESENTED IN FIGURE 2 FOR GLOBAL MEAN LAND SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS LAND SURFACES ARE MORE SENSITIVE TO CHANGES IN INCIDENT SOLAR RADIATION. THE SAME DECADAL COOLING AND WARMING PATTERN IS SEEN IN THESE DATA INCLUDING THE DEEP DECADAL COOLING TREND ENDING IN 2012 AND THE ABSENCE OF DECADAL COOLING TRENDS SINCE THE DECADE ENDING IN 2015. ALSO, AS IN FIGURE 1, THE CHART OF DECADAL TRENDS ENDS IN AN UPWARD MOVEMENT WITH NO INDICATION OF THE COMING COOLING OF THE GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM. 

 

IN SUMMARY, AS IN THE SIMILAR STUDY OF 2019 [LINK] , WE FIND NO EVIDENCE IN UAH LOWER TROPOSPHERE DATA FOR GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE (LAND AND OCEAN), OR FOR LAND ONLY, THAT THE “COMING GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM” HAS IMPOSED A COOLING TREND OR IS IMPOSING A COOLING TREND IN GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURES. 

THE EVIDENCE FOR “THE COMING COOLING OF THE GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM” IS PRESENTED IN TERMS OF THE KIND OF LOCALIZED COOLING EVENTS DESCRIBED BELOW. NO RATIONALE IS PROVIDED FOR THE INTERPRETATION OF THESE EVENTS IN TERMS OF AGW CLIMATE CHANGE OR THE GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM. BOTH OF THESE THEORIES RELATE TO LONG TERM TRENDS IN GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE. 

 

POSTSCRIPT: IN SOME INSTANCES THE AUTHORS OF THESE GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM CLAIMS HAVE DEFENDED THEIR METHODOLOGY BY ACCUSING CLIMATE SCIENCE OF USING SIMILAR METHODS. THIS DEFENSE DOES NOT VALIDATE THEIR FINDINGS OR THEIR METHODS. 

 

GSM-1

GSM-2

bandicam 2020-06-16 11-13-12-000

bandicam 2020-06-16 11-13-31-190

 

bandicam 2020-06-16 11-14-09-490

 

bandicam 2020-06-16 11-14-31-380

 

 

5 Responses to "GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM GLOBAL COOLING"

Grand Solar Minimum:

.
The sun may be dimming, temporarily. Solar Activity has been Decreasing the last 40-50 years,
While, at the same time, World Temperatures have steadily risen,
——–>(actually the rate of Temperature rise worldwide has increased)
Given the INCREASE &POWER of EXCESS Greenhouse Gasses (nearly 2Dz. of them)
in our atmosphere…Someone I respect was asked:
——————————————-
“How are we going to prepare for the mini-ice age that a Right Wing Pro Fossil Fuel scientist is predicting
to last the next 30 – 40 – 50 years because of a solar minimum?
.
Michael Barnard, Low-carbon Innovation Strategist
Feb 5, 2020
Since no scientists that publish in peer-reviewed journals and are considered remotely sensible
are predicting a mini-ice age,
we’re not going to prepare for it at all.

This is just one of many recurrent denialist bullshit memes that circulates through the denial-o-sphere,
getting whacked on the head when it emerges like all the other blind mole rats of the space.”

((the last 5 year Period has been the hottest 5 Yrs. in thousands of years.))
Soooo,
Don’t panic!
Earth is not going to freeze over.
But will the resulting cooling,” WON’T EVEN PUT A DENT ” in the global warming trend?
.
A periodic solar event called a “grand solar minimum”
could overtake the sun, perhaps as soon as 2007-2009 (nope, hot years) 2018 (nope, a hot year) 2020 (well, now we told that we are to be knee deep into it by 2030) and lasting through 2070,
resulting in diminished magnetism, infrequent sunspot production
and
less ultraviolet (UV) radiation reaching Earth
— all bringing a cooler period than might have been with Global Warming by itself.
That may span 50 years.

The last ‘grand’-minimum event
— a disruption of the sun’s 11-year cycle of variable sunspot activity
— happened in the mid-17th century.

Known as the Maunder Minimum, it occurred between 1645 and 1715,
Combined with the longer span of time when parts of the world became sufficiently cold
that the period was called the Little Ice Age, which lasted from about 1300 to 1800.

But it’s HIGHLY UNLIKELY that we’ll see a return to the cold from centuries ago,
researchers reported in a new study.

Since the Maunder Minimum, global average temperatures
have been on the rise, driven by Global Warming creating Climate Changes.
.
Though a new decades-long dip in solar radiation could SLOW global warming a bit
YOU WILL need VERY Sensitive instruments in order to even notice it.
…if it finally shows up
after being predicted in the 1970s, and then in the 1980s & then again in the 1990s and then again, we were supposed to be up to our assets in a Mini Ice Age 2013

https://www.livescience.com/61716-sun-cooling-global-warming.html
____________________
==================

https://www.forbes.com/sites/peterferrara/2013/05/26/to-the-horror-of-global-warming-alarmists-global-cooling-is-here/#6226acf54dcf
In this respect, we could be in for a cooling period that lasts 200-250 years.” In other words, another Little Ice Age.

The German Herald reported on March 31, 2013,

“German meteorologists say that the start of 2013 is now the coldest in 208 years
—- and now German media has quoted Russian scientist Dr Habibullo Abdussamatov from the
St. Petersburg Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory [saying this] is proof as
he said earlier that we are heading for a “Mini Ice Age.”

“Talking to German media the scientist who first made his prediction in 2005 said that after studying sunspots
and their relationship with climate change on Earth, we are now on an ‘unavoidable advance towards a deep temperature drop.’”

((Repeatedly espousing PREVIOUSLY FAILED PREDICTIONS { new details / new makeup, lipstick} and Enlarging the threat of a NEW Ice Age))

“Faith in Global Warming is collapsing (( ? )) in formerly staunch Europe following increasingly severe winters which have now started continuing into spring.
Christopher Booker explained in The Sunday Telegraph on April 27, 2013,”

((( 2014 was the world’s HOTTEST year,
until 2015 became the world’s HOTTEST year,
until 2016 became the world’s HOTTEST year,
until 2017 Snuggled into those years to continue the series of record-setting hot years,
until 2018 Snuggled into for yet another record series of years )))
((( 2019 has just Snuggled in next to record hot 2016! )))

Thank you for this very comprehensive and detailed comment.

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