Thongchai Thailand

GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM GLOBAL COOLING

Posted on: June 16, 2020

THERE HAVE BEEN REPEATED CLAIMS BY AGW SKEPTICS ANTICIPATING A GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM THAT GLOBAL WARMING IS HISTORY AND THAT GLOBAL COOLING IS HERE [2019 POST ON GLOBAL COOLING] 

AS SEEN IN THE IMAGES ABOVE, THESE CLAIMS HAVE PERSISTED EVEN AFTER THE 2019 PREDICTIONS DID NOT MATERIALIZE [LINK] [LINK] . THIS POST IS A CRITICAL EVALUATION OF THESE CLAIMS SEEN IN 2020. BELOW WE PRESENT DECADAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS SEEN IN THE UAH LOWER TROPOSPHERE DATA FOR GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURES AND GLOBAL MEAN LAND TEMPERATURES. 

 

 

FIGURE 1: DECADAL TRENDS IN GLOBAL MEAN TEMP

G-GIF

 

FIGURE 2: DECADAL TRENDS IN GLOBAL MEAN LAND TEMP

L-GIF

 

IN THE GIF CHARTS ABOVE, THE RED CURVE TRACKS THE DECADAL MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE TREND FOR THE DECADE ENDING IN EACH YEAR FORM 1988 TO 2020. IN BOTH IMAGES, THE DECADAL TREND WINDOW MOVES THROUGH THE TIME SERIES ONE YEAR AT A TIME. EACH GIF IMAGE CYCLES THROUGH THE SIX CALENDAR MONTHS FROM JANUARY TO JUNE. THE HORIZONTAL BLACK LINE MARKS THE ZERO TREND POSITION. TRENDS ABOVE THE BLACK LINE ARE WARMING TRENDS. THOSE BENEATH THE BLACK LINE ARE COOLING TRENDS. THE CURVES IN THE LINE HAVE A TREND INTERPRETATION. WHEN IT IS MOVING DOWNWARD, WE CAN THINK OF IT AS MOVING TOWARD A COOLING TREND. LIKEWISE AN UPWARD CURVE IS A MOVE TOWARDS A WARMING TREND. 

FIGURE 1: THESE DECADAL TRENDS AND TRENDS OF DECADAL TRENDS FOR GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURES, BOTH LAND AND OCEAN, ARE PRESENTED IN FIGURE 1. HERE WE FIND SOME WEAK COOLING PERIODS PRIOR TO 1998 AND STRONGER COOLING PERIODS BETWEEN 2006 AND 2012 WITH A PARTICULARLY INTENSE DECADAL COOLING PERIOD ENDING IN THE YEAR 2012. NO DECADAL COOLING PERIOD IS FOUND AFTER THE YEAR 2015. MORE TO THE POINT, THE DECADAL TREND CURVE ENDS THE STUDY PERIOD WITH AN UPWARD SLOPE. THIS GIF DISPLAY OF THE DECADAL TRENDS IN GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE DOES NOT APPEAR TO SHOW EVIDENCE OF THE END OF GLOBAL WARMING AND THE BEGINNING OF THE GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM COOLING CLAIMED BY THE AUTHORS OF THE CITED WORKS ABOVE. 

FIGURE 2THE SAME ANALYSIS IS PRESENTED IN FIGURE 2 FOR GLOBAL MEAN LAND SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS LAND SURFACES ARE MORE SENSITIVE TO CHANGES IN INCIDENT SOLAR RADIATION. THE SAME DECADAL COOLING AND WARMING PATTERN IS SEEN IN THESE DATA INCLUDING THE DEEP DECADAL COOLING TREND ENDING IN 2012 AND THE ABSENCE OF DECADAL COOLING TRENDS SINCE THE DECADE ENDING IN 2015. ALSO, AS IN FIGURE 1, THE CHART OF DECADAL TRENDS ENDS IN AN UPWARD MOVEMENT WITH NO INDICATION OF THE COMING COOLING OF THE GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM. 

 

IN SUMMARY, AS IN THE SIMILAR STUDY OF 2019 [LINK] , WE FIND NO EVIDENCE IN UAH LOWER TROPOSPHERE DATA FOR GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE (LAND AND OCEAN), OR FOR LAND ONLY, THAT THE “COMING GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM” HAS IMPOSED A COOLING TREND OR IS IMPOSING A COOLING TREND IN GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURES. 

THE EVIDENCE FOR “THE COMING COOLING OF THE GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM” IS PRESENTED IN TERMS OF THE KIND OF LOCALIZED COOLING EVENTS DESCRIBED BELOW. NO RATIONALE IS PROVIDED FOR THE INTERPRETATION OF THESE EVENTS IN TERMS OF AGW CLIMATE CHANGE OR THE GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM. BOTH OF THESE THEORIES RELATE TO LONG TERM TRENDS IN GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE. 

 

POSTSCRIPT: IN SOME INSTANCES THE AUTHORS OF THESE GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM CLAIMS HAVE DEFENDED THEIR METHODOLOGY BY ACCUSING CLIMATE SCIENCE OF USING SIMILAR METHODS. THIS DEFENSE DOES NOT VALIDATE THEIR FINDINGS OR THEIR METHODS. 

 

GSM-1

GSM-2

bandicam 2020-06-16 11-13-12-000

bandicam 2020-06-16 11-13-31-190

 

bandicam 2020-06-16 11-14-09-490

 

bandicam 2020-06-16 11-14-31-380

 

 

3 Responses to "GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM GLOBAL COOLING"

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: