Thongchai Thailand

ABOUT THE WORD “UNPRECEDENTED”

Posted on: June 5, 2020

US-based climate scientists to take research to France

 

THAT A SELECTED CLIMATE EVENT IS UNPRECEDENTED DOES NOT PROVE THAT THE CURRENT WARM PERIOD MUST THEREFORE HAVE BEEN THE RESULT OF HUMAN CAUSE 

  1. The climate science position that unprecedented climate events prove human cause of the current warming trend has no basis. That selected climate events can be found that are unprecedented proves only that they were unprecedented and not that therefore the current warm period must have a human cause.
  2. For example, the PETM (Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum) ocean acidification event 55 million years ago is unprecedented in the paleo record but it was not human caused although it serves as the model for the ocean acidification fears in the current warm period.
  3. The ETE (End Triassic Extinction) 200 million years ago is unprecedented in the paleo record but it was not human caused although it serves as a model for fears of a human caused mass extinction of the current warm period.
  4. As for deglaciation transitions to interglacials, the extreme climate change events of the Eemian is unprecedented in the paleo record but it was not human caused although it serves as a model for a predicted catastrophic sea level rise event in the current warm period by way of a collapse of polar ice sheets.
  5. Briefly, the lengths to which climate science has gone to prove human cause by arguing the case that various events in the current warm period are unprecedented is an oddity. That a climate event that is unprecedented is therefore human caused is not credible because it is illogical, unscientific, and without a rational basis.
  6. The credibility of this argument is further weakened by the selection of arbitrary  reference time periods such as 1,000 years or 2,000 years for various claims to prove that the current warming is unprecedented.
  7. CONCLUSIONHuman cause must be proven in terms of the case against humans made in climate science such as the use of fossil fuels and not in terms of whether selected climate events in the current warm period is unprecedented unless it can be shown that being unprecedented requires a human cause.
  8. This area of climate science is likely driven by confirmation bias as scientists convinced that there are extreme events that can be claimed to be unprecedented go looking for them in the data where confirmation bias helps them once again to find these extreme events that can be claimed to be unprecedented as a way of both creating fear of climate change and proving human cause.
  9. The case against humans in climate science is that since the Industrial Revolution, humans have been releasing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels and that this carbon dioxide is not in the current account of the carbon cycle but from carbon cycles millions of years ago.  It is thus argued that fossil fuel emissions of the industrial economy have caused atmospheric CO2 concentration to steadily increase and that steady increase has caused warming by way of the climate sensitivity of surface temperature to atmospheric CO2 concentration.
  10. An uncertainty issue in climate sensitivity has driven climate science to an alternate measure of the relationship between emissions and warming in terms of the TCRE.
  11. That climate science has now resorted to proving human cause by way of whether selected climate events in the current warm period are unprecedented may imply a weakness in the science.
  12. Some sources of this weakness are explored in the related posts at these links
  13. [LINK] [LINK] [LINK] [LINK] [LINK] [LINK] [LINK] [LINK] [LINK]

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