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RELATED POST [HISTORY: ARRHENIUS TO CALLENDAR]

RELATED POST: [GUY STEWART CALLENDAR] 

According to the BBC, there were three “PIONEERS“ who “PREDICTED” climate change. They are identified as Eunice Foote, Guy Callendar, and Charles Keeling [LINK]

THE TEXT OF THE BBC STATEMENT

Three pioneers who predicted climate change

1. We’ve known about the idea of the greenhouse effect since the 1820s, but it was Eunice Foote – a women’s rights activist who first showed how it could actually work. In 1856, she used an air pump to fill glass cylinders with different gases and then tested the effect of sunlight on them. One was carbon dioxide, CO2. “The receiver containing the gas became itself much heated… and on being removed, it was many times as long in cooling…” Foote’s experiment suggested that CO2 and water vapour trap heat more than other gases do and the potential effects on our climate began to emerge. “An atmosphere of that gas would give to our Earth a high temperature.” That year she submitted her findings to an American scientific society. At their conference she wasn’t able to take questions directly because someone else presented her work for her and it wasn’t published in the proceedings of the society. Another journal did end up publishing her paper, but it went largely unnoticed. Three years later, Irish physicist John Tyndall did more complex experiments, finding other greenhouse gases that trap heat. He went on to become one of the founding figures of climate science. Nobody knows if he’d read Eunice Foote’s paper, but his own didn’t mention her or her glass cylinders at all. No pictures of Foote have survived, and her contribution remained buried for 150 years only coming to light by chance in 2010, when a retired geologist discovered a citation of her work in an antique science annual.
2. Guy Stewart Callendar was a steam engineer by day and an avid collector of climate data in his spare time. By the 1930s, he was collecting temperature readings from 147 weather stations around the world. No-one had ever collated the data like this before, and when he compared his temperature readings to historic measurements of CO2, he discovered a clear pattern. Callendar saw that not only was climate change happening, it was at least partly down to the burning of fossil fuels. In 1938, Callendar presented his findings to a scientific body but the idea that we humans could influence something as huge as the Earth’s climate was still, for many, too hard to believe. It wasn’t until after the Second World War that the effect of human activity on global warming the “Callendar Effect” – was proved right.
3. In 1958, chemist Charles Keeling‘s colleagues were studying the relationship between ocean acidity and carbon dioxide. Until then, it had been thought that the oceans quickly absorb most CO2, taking it out of the atmosphere, but that didn’t appear to be true. Keeling had a hunch that scientists had been underestimating how much of the gas was actually over our heads. I was telling these people that the whole field was pretty badly screwed up. Atmospheric CO2 readings had been taken for decades, but the data was unreliable. Keeling was convinced he could do better, and looked for a spot that was as far as possible from the pollution of cities and industry. He went to the middle of the North Pacific, 4,000 metres above sea level, to the huge, active volcano of Mauna Loa, in Hawaii. If you had to have picked a spot anywhere, which would have given a representation of the whole world with one single site, Mauna Loa Observatory is probably about the best choice. His new data proved two things. Firstly, it showed that CO2 goes up and down with the seasons. But if you zoom out from these “saw’s teeth” you can see the second thing that Keeling proved atmospheric CO2 was increasing year on year. Keeling began plotting his readings on a graph, and the ominously upward-curving line – the “Keeling Curve” – was born. But the Mauna Loa project faced challenges. Equipment broke down, and it struggled to secure funding. It was only through sheer perseverance that the observatory kept taking its readings. Keeling was eventually awarded a National Medal of Science for his work, and today, Mauna Loa is still the world’s benchmark site for measuring CO2.
4. It’s now more than 160 years since Eunice Foote suggested the cause of global warming, more than 80 years since Guy Callendar demonstrated the planet was warming because of human activity, and more than 60 years since Charles Keeling showed CO2 was rising at an alarming rate. And here we are…

CRITICAL COMMENTARY

EUNICE FOOTE:  

IT IS TRUE THAT IN 1820 EUNICE FOOTE CONDUCTED EXPERIMENTS THAT SHOWED THAT CO2 ABSORBS HEAT BECAUSE BOTTLES FILLED WITH CO2 GOT HOTTER IN THE SUN THAT BOTTLES NOT FOLLED WITH CO2. HOWEVER, THIS EXPERIMENT WAS THE ENTIREITY OF HER RESEARCH INTEREST AND HER FINDINGS. THERE IS NOTHING IN THE EUNICE FOOTE STORY THAT FOSSIL FUELS CAUSE ATMOSPHERIC CO2 TO RISE AND THAT  THE RISING ATMOSPHERIC CO2 IN TURN CAUSES GLOBAL WARMING AND THAT GLOBAL WARMING IS A BAD THING THAT NEEDS TO BE AVOIDED.

IT SHOULD ALSO BE MENTIONED THAT HER EXPERIMENTS WERE CONDUCTED IN 1820 AND THAT DOES FALL IN THE CLIMATE CHANGE ERA ACCORDING TO THE FIRST IPCC REPORT THAT SAID THAT CLIMATE CHANGE BEGAN IN 1760. HOWEVER, THE IPCC HAS SINCE CHANGED THE START DATE TO 1850 BUT THAT YEAR TOO HAS NOW BEEN DISCARDED IN LIGHT OF THE ETCW ISSUE IN CLIMATE SCIENCE (EARLY TWENTIETH CENTURY WARMING). THE ETCW ANOMALY IN CLIMATE SCIENCE IS THAT THE CURRENT THEORY OF ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING (AGW) IS UNABLE TO EXPLAIN THE WARMING FROM PRE-INDUSTRIAL TO 1950. THE ETCW ANOMALY IS DESCRIBED IN SOME DETAIL IN A RELATED POST ON THIS SITE: [LINK] . 

IN VIEW OF THESE COMPLEXITIES WITH EARLIER DATES FOR WHEN AGW GOT STARTED, NASA AND CLIMATE SCIENTISTS SUCH  AS JAMES HANSEN OF THE USA AND PETER COX OF THE UK HAVE CHANGED THE START DATE OF AGW TO 1950 OR LATER. EUNICE FOOTE’S WORK DOES HELP TO SUPPORT AND UNDERSTND THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT OF CARBON DIOXIDE BUT SHE DID NOT PROPOSE A THEORY OF GLOBAL WARMING CAUSED BY THE BURNING OF FOSSILL FUELS IN THE INDUSTRIAL ECONOMY.

GUY CALLENDAR:

GUY CALLENDAR PUBLISHED THE WORLD’S FIRST AGW PAPER IN THE YEAR 1932. DETAILS ARE PRESENTED IN A RELATED POST ON THIS SITE: [LINK] . IN THE PAPER HE NOTED THAT FROM 1900 TO 1932 BOTH ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE HAVE RISEN. HE ATTRIBUTED THE RISE IN CO2 TO THE BURNING OF FOSSIL FUELS BY THE INDUSTRIAL ECONOMY AND HE ATTRIBUTED THE RISE IN TEMPERAURE TO THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2. QUITE UNLIKE THE MODERN VERSION OF THIS THEORY, HE DID NOT PRESENT THESE FINDINGS AS SOMETHING TO FEAR AND SOMETHING THAT NEEDS TO BE STOPPED WITH HUMAN INTERVENTION, BUT RATHER AS A WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE LITTLE ICE AGE WITH AN ADDED NOTE ON THE POSITIVE PHOTOSYNTHESIS EFFECTS OF HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION.  

HOWEVER, AS IN THE EUNICE FOOTE CASE CALLENDAR’S WORK TOO IS NOW DISCREDITED IN THE MODERN VERSION OF THE THEORY OF AGW BECAUSE HIS DATA FROM 1900 TO 1938 ARE FIRST OF ALL TOO BRIEF TO COMPUTE A STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT CLIMATE SENSITIVITY. THAT RELATIONSHIP REQUIRES TIME SPANS LONGER THAN 60 YEARS. THE OTHER ISSUE WITH THE CALLENDAR FINDINGS IS THAT HIS STUDY PERIOD TOO IS IN VIOLATION OF THE ETCW ISSUE IN MODERN CLIMATE SCIENCE WHERE THE CURRENT VERSION OF THE STRT YEAR FOR AGW IS 1950. THE OTHER INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE WORK OF CALLENDAR AND THE MODERN THEORY OF AGW IS THAT CALLENDAR DID NOT CLAIM GLOBAL WARMING AS A BAD THING THAT NEEDED HUMANS TO UNDO BY TAKING CLIMATE ACTION BY GIVING UP FOSSIL FUELS. AS IN THE WORK OF EUNICE FOOTE, THE CALLENDAR WORK TOO IS IRRELEVANT IN THE CONTEXT OF THE MODERN VERSION OF AGW.  

CHARLES KEELING:  

THE KEELING CONNECTION TO THE MODERN THEORY OF AGW IS THAT HE WAS THE PROVIDER OF RLIABLE ATMOSPHERIC CO2 DATA FROM MAUNA LOA THAT SHOWED BOTH A SEASONAL CYCLE EXPLAINED IN TERMS OF PHOTOSYNTHESIS AND A LONG TERM RISING TREND THAT IS TAKEN TO BE THE EVIDENCE THAT FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS CAUSE ATMOSPHERIC CO2 TO RISE. THIS RELATIONSHIP IS THE FOUNDATIONAL EVIDENCE OF ANTHROPOGENIC GLOLBAL WARMING (AGW).

HOWEVER, KEELING DID NOT PARTICIPATE IN THE EXTENSION OF THE THEORY FROM RISING ATMOSPHERIC CO2 TO RISING GLOBAL MEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE (GMST) POSSIBLY BECAUSE A THEORY OF WARMING THAT RESTS ENTIRELY ON HUMAN CAUSE IN THE FORM OF THE INDUSTRIAL ECONOMY COULD NOT EXPLAIN THE OTHER WARMING TRENDS OF THE HOLOCENE THAT PREDATES THE INDUSTRIAL ECONOMY OF HUMANS. THE OTHER WARMING AND COOLING CYCLES OF THE HOLOCENE ARE DESCRIBED IN A RELATED POST:

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/05/12/human-cause-in-the-anthropocene/

EVENTUALLY, HE PROPOSED HIS OWN THEORY OF GLOBAL WARMING. THIS THEORY DOES NOT RELY ON THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION AND DOES NOT RELY ON THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT OF CO2 AND SO IS ABLE TO EXPLAIN NOT ONLY WARMING BUT COOLING AND NOT ONLY THE CURRENT WARMING BUT PRIOR WARMING CYCLES OF THE HOLOCENE DESCRIBED IN THE RELATED POST LINKED BELOW. HE PUBLISHED THAT PAPER WITH CO-AUTHOR TIMOTHY WHORF.

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/05/tidalcyclesbiblio/

TIDAL CYCLES AND GLOBAL WARMING

THE TIDAL CYCLE THEORY OF CLIMATE CHANGE EXPLAINS THE 12,000 YEAR HISTORY OF MILLENNIAL SCALE WARMING AND COOLING CYCLES SEEN IN THE HOLOCENE [LINK] . IN CONTRAST, THE CLIMATE SCIENCE AGW CLIMATE CHANGE THEORY EXPLAINS THE POST LIA WARMING BUT HAS NO EXPLANATION FOR THE OTHER WARMING AND COOLING CYCLES OF THE HOLOCENE [LINK] .

HERE WE PRESENT A BIBLIOGRAPHY ON THIS SUBJECT OF TIDAL CYCLE RESONANCE. THE KEELING AND WHORF 2000 PAPER THAT CONSIDERS THE CLIMATE EFFECTS OF GRAVITATIONAL INTERACTIONS AMONG SUN, EARTH, AND MOON ONLY IS DESCRIBED IN SOME DETAIL BELOW. IT IS NOTED THAT OTHER PAPERS IN THE BIBLIOGRAPHY BELOW, VOISIN 2020 IN PARTICULAR, ALSO INCLUDE GRAVITATIONAL INTERACTIONS AMONG THE PLANETS – SPECIFICALLY THAT BETWEEN EARTH AND VENUS. 

Tides are the creation of the gravitational interactions among earth, sun, and moon. This interaction is able to create the energy required to form tides on earth’s oceans. This energy is eventually released into the earth system and the gravitational interactions can also act as a perturbation of the earth’s internal geothermal heat in the mantle (Voisin 2020). Various papers by Keeling and Whorf and a few other authors (see Bibiography below) propose a mechanism in which periodic resonance in the gravitational interaction among earth, moon, and sun explains the cycles of millennial scale warming and cooling events over the 12,000 years of the Holocene that are described in a related post [LINK] . In that context, it is proposed by authors of tidal cycle papers that a study of the current warming period since the Little Ice Age should not exclude a role for tidal cycles.

SUMMARY: THE POINT OF THE BBC ARTICLE, THAT CLIMATE SCIENCE IS MADE MORE CREDIBLE BY THE REFERENCES TO FOOTE, CALLENDAR, AND KEELING, DOES NOT HOLD IN THE CONTEXT OF THE ADDITIONAL DETAILS PROVIDED ABOVE.