Thongchai Thailand

GLOBAL WARMING & GREENLAND ICE MELT

Posted on: April 16, 2020

GREENLAND

GREENLAND ALARMISM HEADLINES: 1. Drone images show Greenland Ice Sheet becoming more unstable as it fractures, 2. Greenland is melting far faster than it has before, 3. Melting of Greenland ice is fastest in 350 years, 4. Greenland’s rapid melt will mean more flooding, 5. Greenland is approaching the threshold of an irreversible melt, 6. Greenland Ice Sheet melting seven times faster than in the 1990s, 7. Dozens of lakes discovered deep inside Greenland Ice Sheet, 8. Greenland Ice Sheet is melting at an accelerated rate, 9. Record heat threatens Greenland Ice Sheet, 10. As Greenland melts something strange is happening to the ice sheet. 

 

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IN THIS POST A CORRELATION ANALYSIS OF TIME SERIES OF SURFACE MELT AND MASS BALANCE DATA FOR THE GREENLAND ICE SHEET IN THE PERIOD 1992-2019 AGAINST THE CORRESPONDING UAH LOWER TROPOSPHERE TEMPERATURE DATA FOR THE NORTH POLAR REGION IS USED TO TEST THE HYPOTHESIS THAT OBSERVED SURFACE MELT AND MASS BALANCE DATA ARE CORRELATED WITH ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE. THE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG, STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT CORRELATIONS. WE FIND THAT GREENLAND SURFACE MELT AND MASS BALANCE DYNAMICS ARE RELATED TO UAH LOWER TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE AT AN ANNUAL TIME SCALE. 

 

(1)  TEST#1: IS ANNUAL SURFACE MELT AREA RESPONSIVE TO UAH LOWER TROPOSPHERE TEMPERATURE ? SURFACE MELT DATA IN MILLIONS OF SQUARE KILOMETERS PROVIDED BY NSIDC, NORTH POLAR LOWER TROPOSPHERE TEMPERATURE PROVIDED BY UAH.

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THE FIRST CHART SHOWS THE SURFACE MELT DATA IN MILLIONS OF SQUARE KILOMETERS FOR EACH YEAR FROM 1999 TO 2019 IN RED AND THE DETRENDED SERIES IN BLUE. THE COMPARISON OF THE TWO CURVES DOES NOT INDICATE THAT THERE IS MUCH OF A TREND IN THE SURFACE MELT AREA SERIES AND THAT IS CONFIRMED BY THE LOW VALUES FOR TREND AND R-SQUARED SHOWN ON THE CHART. EVEN SO, CLIMATE SCIENTISTS LIKE TO HUNT AND PECK TO FIND SCARY VALUES OR UNPRECEDENTED VALUES TO PAINT A PICTURE OF THE END OF THE WORLD. THE SECOND CHART SHOWS THE UAH LOWER TROPOSPHERE TEMPERATURE ABOVE THE NORTH POLAR REGION IN RED AND ITS DETRENDED SERIES IN BLUE. AS IN THE SURFACE MELT DATA, THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A TREND IN THE TEMPERATURE EITHER. THESE ARE THE AVERAGE VALUES OF JUNE, JULY, AND AUGUST TEMPERATURES, THE THREE MONTHS WHEN SURFACE MELT IS OBSERVED. THE THIRD AND FOURTH CHARTS SHOW CORRELATIONS BETWEEN SURFACE MELT AREA AND TEMPERATURE IN THE SOURCE DATA AND IN THE THE DETRENDED SERIES. A STRONG STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT DETRENDED CORRELATION  IS FOUND BETWEEN GREENLAND SURFACE MELT AREA OF DETCORR=0.5776. THIS RESULT INDICATES THAT SURFACE MELT AREA ON THE GREENLAND ICE SHEET IS RESPONSIVE TO MEAN LOWER TROPOSPHERE TEMPERATURE FOR JUNE, JULY, AND AUGUST AT AN ANNUAL TIME SCALE.

 

(2)  TEST#2: IS THE ANNUAL ICE LOSS, INDICATED BY THE GREENLAND ICE SHEET MASS BALANCE, RESPONSIVE TO UAH LOWER TROPOSPHERE TEMPERATURE ? MASS BALANCE DATA ARE PROVIDED BY THE IMBIE TEAM IN THE DATA SECTION OF THEIR PAPER IN NATURE [LINK] . NORTH POLAR LOWER TROPOSPHERE TEMPERATURE PROVIDED BY UAH . HERE THE TIME SPAN IS 1992-2019.

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THE FIRST FOUR CHARTS: DISPLAY THE DATA AND THEIR DETRENDED SERIES 1992-2019. THESE ARE THE JJA (JUNE-JULY-AUGUST) TEMPERATURE AND THE IMBIE GREENLAND ICE SHEET MASS BALANCE 1992-2019. THE THIRD AND FOURTH CHARTS PRESENT GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS OF THE CORRELATION AND THE DETRENDED CORRELATION BETWEEN JJA TEMPERATURE AND THE IMBIE MASS BALANCE. IF THE MASS BALANCE IS RESPONSIVE TO JJA TEMPERATURE, WE WOULD EXPECT A NEGATIVE CORRELATION SINCE HIGHER TEMPERATURES WOULD YIELD MORE MELT AND LOWER MASS BALANCE (NEGATIVE NUMBERS WITH HIGHER ABSOLUTE VALUES). THE RESULTS SHOW A STRONG AND STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT DETRENDED CORRELATION OF CORR=-0.477 AND IT INDICATES THAT THE GREENLAND ICE MELT IS RESPONSIVE TO ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE ABOVE THE ARCTIC AT AN ANNUAL TIME SCALE.

(3)  CONCLUSION:  THE RESULT PROVIDES EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE THAT THE GREENLAND ICE SHEET SURFACE MELT AND MASS BALANCE ARE RESPONSIVE TO THE WARMING OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE ABOVE THE NORTH POLAR REGION. THIS FINDING RELATES ICE SHEET MELT TO GLOBAL WARMING. YET, WHAT WE SEE IN CLIMATE SCIENCE IS NOT THE IMPASSIONED AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS TO RELATE ICE MELT TO WARMING BUT AN EXTREME SINGLE MINDED FOCUS ON FINDING ALARMING EVENTS IN THE DATA TO CREATE A SENSE OF FEAR. FOR EXAMPLE, IN THE PRESENTATION OF THE SURFACE MELT DATA, THE FOCUS IS ON HOW HIGH THE SURFACE MELT WAS IN 2019 AND THAT THE 2019 MELT WAS “THE 7TH HIGHEST SINCE 1978”. IN THE CASE OF MASS BALANCE, THERE WE ALSO FIND THE SINGLE MINDED FOCUS ON FINDING SOMETHING IN THE DATA TO FEAR. IT IS THUS THAT THE IMBIE TEAM HAD CONCLUDED FROM THEIR OTHERWISE IMPRESSIVE STUDY THAT WHAT THEY FOUND AFTER ALL THAT WORK WAS THAT THE 2018 MASS BALANCE SHOWED SUCH A HUGE ICE LOSS RELATIVE TO THE 1990S THAT PEOPLE WHO LIVE IN LOW LYING COASTAL LANDS SHOULD BE AFRAID OF SEA LEVEL RISE [LINK] .

IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE REAL AGENDA IN CLIMATE SCIENCE IS CLIMATE SCIENCE. THE REAL AGENDA IS MORE LIKELY TO BE THE ACTIVISM THAT INTENDS TO CREATE THE LEVEL OF FEAR NEEDED TO IMPOSE A “CLIMATE ACTION” PLAN THAT IS SUPPOSED TO ATTENUATE THE RATE OF WARMING IF WE DON’T USE  FOSSIL FUELS. IT IS NOTED, HOWEVER, THAT NO EVIDENCE HAS BEEN PRESENTED AND WE SHOW IN RELATED POSTS THAT NONE EXISTS TO RELATE WARMING TO FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS [LINK] [LINK] [LINK] [LINK] [LINK]. 

WE KNOW OF NO SCIENCE OTHER THAN CLIMATE SCIENCE THAT WORKS IN THIS WAY AND NO SCIENCE OTHER THAN CLIMATE SCIENCE  THAT USES THE WORD “SCIENCE” TO CLAIM LEGITIMACY SUCH THAT THE CORRECTNESS OF THEIR WORK MUST NOT BE QUESTIONED; AN APPEAL TO AUTHORITY FALLACY.

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