Thongchai Thailand

Precipitous Decline in Arctic Sea Ice Volume

Posted on: November 7, 2019

 

THIS POST IS AN ANALYSIS OF PIOMAS SEA ICE VOLUME 1979-2019 FOR THE CALENDAR MONTHS JANUARY TO SEPTEMBER.

 

REVISED 11/7/2019 WITH THANKS TO ANDY LEE ROBINSON AND TO THE FINE PEOPLE AT ARCTIC-SEA-ICE-GRAPHS [LINK] 

 

 

[LINK TO HOME PAGE OF THIS SITE]

 

FIGURE 1: SEA ICE VOLUME 1979-2019:  THOUSANDS OF CUBIC KM SEAICE-GIF

 

FIGURE 2: AVERAGE RATE OF DECLINE: THOUSANDS OF CUBIC KM/YEARDECLINERATE

 

FIGURE 3: CORRELATION & DETRENDED CORRELATION WITH TEMPERATURECORR-DETCORR

 

  1. Sea Ice Volume is calculated using the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS, Zhang and Rothrock, 2003) and published as anomalies by the Polar Science Center of the University of Washington [LINK] . Anomalies for each day are calculated relative to the average over the 1979 -2016 period for that day of the year to remove the annual cycle. The data as received for the calendar months January to September in the period 1979-2019 are displayed graphically in Figure 1. The red line through the data is a 3rd order polynomial regression curve. Sustained sea ice volume decline is seen for all nine months studied. As of this writing data for all years in the study period 1979-2019 are available for the calendar months January to September. This period contains the seasonal minimum and maximum sea ice extents that occur in September and March respectively.
  2. The average rate of decline in sea ice volume in thousands of cubic kilometers per year for each of the nine calendar months studied is summarized graphically in Figure 2. It shows high rates of decline in winter and spring and lower rates of decline in summer and fall.
  3. The alarming decline in sea ice is thought to be driven by anthropogenic global warming (AGW) climate change and is thought to be ecologically harmful to the region and to the world as a whole as well as a posing the possibility of initiating runaway global warming through a feedback system caused by lost albedo. It is proposed that the dangerous rate of sea ice decline can and must be attenuated by taking climate action in the form of reducing or eliminating fossil fuel emissions.
  4. To determine whether the observed loss in sea ice volume can be attributed to AGW climate change such that it can be attenuated with climate action in terms of reducing or eliminating fossil fuel emissions, we compute the correlation between AGW driven temperature rise and loss in sea ice volume. The UAH satellite data for lower troposphere temperature over the North Polar Ocean region is used as the relevant temperature record. Since rising temperature is expected to cause declining sea ice volume, the attribution of sea ice loss to temperature requires a statistically significant negative correlation. The correlation between temperature and the loss in sea ice volume for each of the nine calendar months is shown with the blue line in Figure 3 and it does show statistically significant negative correlations between temperature and the rate of decline in Arctic sea ice volume.
  5. However, source data correlation between  x and y in time series data derive from responsiveness of y to x at the time scale of interest and also from shared long term trends. These two effects can be separated by detrending both time series and then computing the correlation between the detrended series.  When the trend effect is removed only the responsiveness of y to x remains. This is why detrended correlation is a better measure of responsiveness than source data correlation as explained very well by Alex Tolley in his Youtube lecture [LINK] . That spurious correlations can be found in time series data when detrended analysis is not used is demonstrated with examples at the Tyler Vigen Spurious Correlation website [LINK] .
  6. Accordingly, the correlations between the detrended series are computed and reported in the red line of Figure 3. There we find that without the shared opposing trends in the two time series, the correlation is essentially zero. None of the correlation in the source data survives into the detrended series indicating that the correlation is an artifact of shared trends and not an indication of responsiveness at an annual time scale. Thus we find no evidence in the data that the observed decline in sea ice volume can be attributed to AGW climate change.
  7. The continued attribution of sea ice dynamics whether in extent, area, or volume, to AGW climate change (see history of attribution below), likely derives from the atmosphere bias of climate science such that there is a tendency to explain all observed changes in the Arctic, such as sea ice melt, in terms of AGW climate change and overlook the extensive geothermal heat sources in the Arctic – an area known to be geologically active. Some of the geological features of the Arctic including the Mid Arctic Rift system and the Jan Mayen Trend are described in related posts [LINK] [LINK] and in the Graphic below.
  8. SUMMARY: The data do show declining Arctic sea ice in its various measures such as extent, area, thickness, age, and PIOMAS volume but without evidence for the assumed attribution of these changes to AGW climate change and therefore without support for the claim that these changes can be attenuated with climate action in the form of reducing or eliminating fossil fuel emissions. A historical list of such attributions of convenience that have eroded the credibility of climate science is provided below.

 

bandicam 2019-07-01 16-29-44-526

 

 

 

A HISTORY OF ATTRIBUTION OF SEA ICE CHANGES TO AGW CLIMATE CHANGE

  1. The atmosphere bias of climate science in terms of its study of sea ice is evident in the following historical notes (paragraph#13 to 23 below) on the continuing concern that AGW climate change is melting away the sea ice. 
  2. 2004, ARCTIC CLIMATE IMPACT ASSESSMENT
    An unprecedented 4-year study of the Arctic shows that polar bears, walruses, and some seals are becoming extinct. Arctic summer sea ice may disappear entirely. Combined with a rapidly melting Greenland ice sheet, it will raise the sea level 3 feet by 2100 inundating lowlands from Florida to Bangladesh. Average winter temperatures in Alaska and the rest of the Arctic are projected to rise an additional 7 to 13 degrees over the next 100 years because of increasing emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities. The area is warming twice as fast as anywhere else because of global air circulation patterns and natural feedback loops, such as less ice reflecting sunlight, leading to increased warming at ground level and more ice melt. Native peoples’ ways of life are threatened. Animal migration patterns have changed, and the thin sea ice and thawing tundra make it too dangerous for humans to hunt and travel.
  3. 2004, RAPID ARCTIC WARMING BRINGS SEA LEVEL RISE
    The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) report says: increasing greenhouse gases from human activities is causing the Arctic to warm twice as fast as the rest of the planet; in Alaska, western Canada, and eastern Russia winter temperatures have risen by 2C to 4C in the last 50 years; the Arctic will warm by 4C to 7C by 2100. A portion of Greenland’s ice sheet will melt; global sea levels will rise; global warming will intensify. Greenland contains enough melting ice to raise sea levels by 7 meters; Bangkok, Manila, Dhaka, Florida, Louisiana, and New Jersey are at risk of inundation; thawing permafrost and rising seas threaten Arctic coastal regions; climate change will accelerate and bring about profound ecological and social changes; the Arctic is experiencing the most rapid and severe climate change on earth and it’s going to get a lot worse; Arctic summer sea ice will decline by 50% to 100%; polar bears will be driven towards extinction; this report is an urgent SOS for the Arctic; forest fires and insect infestations will increase in frequency and intensity; changing vegetation and rising sea levels will shrink the tundra to its lowest level in 21000 years; vanishing breeding areas for birds and grazing areas for animals will cause extinctions of many species; “if we limit emission of heat trapping carbon dioxide we can still help protect the Arctic and slow global warming”.
  4. 2007: THE ARCTIC IS SCREAMING
    Climate science declares that the low sea ice extent in the Arctic is the leading indicator of climate change. We are told that the Arctic “is screaming”, that Arctic sea ice extent is the “canary in the coal mine”, and that Polar Bears and other creatures in the Arctic are dying off and facing imminent extinction. Scientists say that the melting sea ice has set up a positive feedback system that would cause the summer melts in subsequent years to be greater and greater until the Arctic becomes ice free in the summer of 2012. We must take action immediately to cut carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels. http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2010/04/reference-less-ice-less-pups-bangkok.html
  5. 2007: THE ICE FREE ARCTIC CLAIMS GAIN MOMENTUM
    The unusual summer melt of Arctic sea ice in 2007 has encouraged climate science to warn the world that global warming will cause a steep decline in the amount of ice left in subsequent summer melts until the Arctic becomes ice free in summer and that could happen as soon as 2080 or maybe 2060 or it could even be 2030. This time table got shorter and shorter until, without a “scientific” explanation, the ice free year was brought up to 2013. In the meantime, the data showed that in 2008 and 2009 the summer melt did not progressively increase as predicted but did just the opposite by making a comeback in 2008 that got even stronger in 2009. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/12/reference-polar-ice-may-go-in-five.html
  6. 2008: POSITIVE FEEDBACK: ARCTIC SEA ICE IN A DOWNWARD SPIRAL
    Our use of fossil fuels is devastating the Arctic where the volume of sea ice “fell to its lowest recorded level to date” this year and that reduced ice coverage is causing a non-linear acceleration in the loss of polar ice because there is less ice to reflect sunlight. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2008/12/reference-poznan-only-marking-time.html
  7. 2008: THE ARCTIC WILL BE ICE FREE IN SUMMER IN 2008, 2013, or 2030
    The unusually low summer sea ice extent in the Arctic in 2007
    The IPCC has taken note and has revised its projection of an ice free Arctic first from 2008 to 2013 and then again from 2013 to 2030. The way things are going it may be revised again to the year 2100. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2008/10/reference-arctic-to-be-ice-free-due-to.html
  8. 2008: GLOBAL WARMING IS THE CAUSE OF ALL ICE MELT EVENTS
    When there was a greater focus on Antarctica climate scientists said that global warming was melting the West Antarctic Ice Shelf; but the melting was found to be localized and with an active volcano underneath the melting and the attention of “melt forecast” climate science shifted to Arctic sea ice after the an extensive summer melt was observed in September 2007. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2008/08/reference-arctic-sea-ice-drops.html
  9. 2009: SUMMER ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT IN 2009 THE 3RD LOWEST ON RECORD
    The second lowest was 2008 and the first lowest was 2007. This is not a trend that shows that things are getting worse. It shows that things are getting better and yet it is being sold and being bought as evidence that things are getting worse due to rising fossil fuel emissions. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/09/reference-arctic-sea-ice-pack-at-record.html
  10. 2009: THE ARCTIC WILL BE ICE FREE IN SUMMER BY 2029
    An alarm is raised that the extreme summer melt of Arctic sea ice in 2007 was caused by humans using fossil fuels and it portends that in 20 years human caused global warming will leave the Arctic Ocean ice-free in the summer raising sea levels and harming wildlife. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/10/reference-arctic-will-be-ice-free-in-20.html
  11. 2009: THE ARCTIC WILL BE ICE FREE IN SUMMER BY THE YEAR 2012
    Climate scientists continue to extrapolate the extreme summer melt of Arctic sea ice in 2007 to claim that the summer melt of 2007 was a climate change event and that it implies that the Arctic will be ice free in the summer from 2012 onwards. This is a devastating effect on the planet and our use of fossil fuels is to blame. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/10/reference-effects-of-arctic-warming.html
  12. 2009: THE SUMMER SEA ICE EXTENT IN THE ARCTIC WILL BE GONE
    Summer melt of Arctic ice was the third most extensive on record in 2009, second 2008, and the most extensive in 2007. These data show that warming due to our carbon dioxide emissions are causing summer Arctic ice to gradually diminish until it will be gone altogether. More info: http://chaamjamal.blogspot.com/2009/12/reference-warming-trend-is-clear.html

 

 

 

 

7 Responses to "Precipitous Decline in Arctic Sea Ice Volume"

Jamal, those figures are 4 years old.
You can find current ones here: https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/

Thanks. I will do a follow up post with 2019 data

Done. Thank you for your excellent suggestion!

Well done!

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