Thongchai Thailand

The WMO is an agency of the UN

Posted on: March 31, 2019









  1. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has released its State of the Climate report for 2018. The report begins with a statement by the United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres which states that: “The data released in this report give cause for great concern. The past four years were the warmest on record, with the global average surface temperature in 2018 approximately 1°C above the pre-industrial baseline. These data confirm the urgency of climate action. This was also emphasized by the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C. The IPCC found that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C will require rapid and far-reaching transitions in land, energy, industry, buildings, transport, and cities, and that global net human-caused emissions of carbon dioxide need to fall by about 45% from 2010 levels by 2030, reaching “net zero” around 2050. To promote greater global ambition on addressing climate change, I am convening a Climate Action Summit on 23 September. The Summit aims to mobilize the necessary political will for raising ambition as we work to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. Specifically, I am calling on all leaders to come to New York in September with concrete, realistic plans to enhance their nationally determined contributions by 2020 and reach net zero emissions around mid-century. The Summit will also demonstrate transformative action in all the areas where it is needed. There is no longer any time for delay. I commend this report as an indispensable contribution to global efforts to avert irreversible climate disruption. (A. Guterres United Nations Secretary-General)
  2. Yet another introductory comment from the UN is presented by María Fernanda Espinosa Garcés, President of the United Nations General Assembly, as follows: This wide ranging and significant report by the World Meteorological Organization clearly underlines the need for urgent action on climate change and shows the value of authoritative scientific data to inform governments in
    their decision-making process. It is one of my priorities as President of the General Assembly to highlight the impacts of climate change on achieving the sustainable development goals and the need for a holistic understanding of the socioeconomic consequences of increasingly intense extreme weather on countries around the world. This current WMO report will make an important contribution to our combined international action to focus attention on this problem. (María Fernanda Espinosa Garcés).
  3. These statements from the UN leadership underscore the predominant role of the United Nations as the conductor of the climate science orchestra and ensures that the science of climate science and meteorology is constructed in ways that serve the activism needs of the UN described in a related post [LINK] . Although the IPCC is treated and thought of as a climate science organization and the WMO is treated as a Meteorology organization, both are in fact UN agencies that serve the needs of the UN first and foremost as articulated by their comments on the WMO State of the Climate report . This report is presented as science and meteorology but it is in fact fear based climate activism that serves the needs of the UN such that climate change and climate action are inserted into what appears to be meteorology. For example, weather forecasting, the primary function of meteorology, is redefined and described in terms of climate change and climate action. This aspect of the WMO will become clearer in the excerpts from the State of the Climate 2018 presented below.
  4. Excerpt #1: “The year 2018 was the fourth warmest on record and the past four years – 2015 to 2018 – were the top four warmest years in the global temperature record. The year 2018 was the coolest of the four. In contrast to the two warmest years (2016 and 2017), 2018 began with weak La Niña conditions, typically associated with a lower global temperature”. Comment: Climate science holds that only long term trends and not temperature events serve as evidence of AGW (Anthropogenic Global Warming) and yet when the opportunity presents itself to use temperature events as tools of fear based activism the WMO stoops to activism and abandons science. Specifically we should note that included in the hottest years on record is 2016, a monster El Nino year but this source of natural variability is omitted. The year 2018 was not as hot as 2016 because it was an El Nina year and this natural variability is highlighted in the report. The non-science and biased reporting of the data by the WMO serves as evidence that the organization is not guided by science or meteorology but by the climate catastrophe activism needs of its boss the United Nations.
  5. Excerpt #2: “The IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C reported that the average global temperature for the period 2006–2015 was 0.86 °C above the pre-industrial baseline. For comparison, the average anomaly above the same baseline for the most recent decade 2009–2018 was 0.93 ± 0.07°C, and the average for the past five years, 2014–2018, was 1.04 ± 0.09°C above this baseline. Both of these periods include the warming effect of the strong El Niño of 2015–2016”. Comment: A disclaimer is made that the the data presented are confounded by El Nino effects but they are presented anyway. This kind of data presentation does not show an unbiased pursuit of science but rather quite the opposite. It should be obvious that the WMO is intent on using these temperature data to raise an alarm and thereby to serve the activism needs of its masters at the UN headquarters.
  6. Excerpt #3: Above-average temperatures were widespread in 2018. According to continental numbers from NOAA, 2018 was ranked in the top 10 warmest years for Africa, Asia, Europe, Oceania and South America. Only for North America did 2018 not rank among the top 10 warmest years, coming 18th in the 109-year record. Comment: This is a continuation of the use of temperature events that serve fear based activism in violation of the climate science principle that only long term trends and not temperature events are relevant in terms of empirical evidence; but here they take a step further away from the science which emphasizes global means as the only relevant measures of global warming and seeks out regions where high temperatures can be found. As well, in the attempt to create fear with temperature events, the authors commit the so called “Texas Sharpshooter” fallacy in terms of seeking out regions where the temperature event is particularly hot and then submitting that as evidence of AGW and reasons to fear global warming.
  7. Excerpt#4: Over the Arctic, warming in annual average temperature anomalies since pre-industrial times exceeded 2°C widely and 3°C in some places. Although Arctic temperatures were generally lower than in the record year of 2016, they were still exceptionally high relative to the long-term average. There were a number of areas of notable warmth. An area extending across Europe, parts of North Africa, the Middle East and southern Asia was also exceptionally warm, with a number of countries experiencing their warmest year on record (Czechia, France, Germany, Hungary, Serbia, Switzerland) or one in the top five (Belgium, Estonia, Israel, Latvia, Pakistan, the Republic of Moldova, Slovenia, Ukraine). For Europe as a whole, 2018 was one of the three warmest years on record. Other areas of notable warmth included the south-western United States, eastern parts of Australia (for the country overall it was the third warmest year) and New Zealand, where it was the joint second warmest year on record. In contrast, areas of below-average temperatures over land were more limited. Parts of North America and Greenland, central Asia, western parts of North Africa, parts of East Africa, coastal areas of western Australia and western parts of tropical South America were cooler than average, but not unusually so. Comment: This text is a continuation of the Texas Sharpshooter fallacy fishing expedition for regions and countries where high rates of warming (the Arctic) and high temperatures (list of countries) can be found. It is not possible for these data to serve as evidence of AGW but the high temperatures and rates of warming create a sense of alarm and serve the activism that the UN needs to push through its agenda of “ambition” described in the Secretary General’s comments.
  8. Excerpt #5: Increasing levels of GHGs in the atmosphere are key drivers of climate change. Atmospheric concentrations reflect a balance between sources (including emissions due to human activities) and sinks (uptake by the biosphere and oceans). In 2017, GHG concentrations reached new highs, with globally averaged mole fractions of CO2 at 405.5 ppm, CH4 at 1859 ppb and N2O at 329.9 ppb. These values constitute, respectively, 146%, 257% and 122% of pre-industrial levels (before 1750). Accurately assessing CO2 emissions and their redistribution within the atmosphere, oceans, and land – the “global carbon budget” – helps us capture how humans are changing the Earth’s climate, supports the development of climate policies, and improves projections of future climate change. Comment: A research question stated as “how humans are changing the earth’s climate” contains a bias that allows researchers to hunt for human cause perhaps at the expense of circular reasoning as explained in two related posts [LINK] [LINK] .
  9. Excerpt #6: Fossil CO2 emissions have grown almost continuously for the past two centuries a trend only interrupted briefly by globally significant economic downturns. Emissions to date continued to grow at 1.6% in 2017 and at a preliminary 2.0% in 2018. It is anticipated that a new record high of 36.9 ± 1.8 billion tons of CO2 was reached in 2018. Net CO2 emissions from land use and land cover changes were on average 5.0 ± 2.6 billion tons per year over the past decade, with highly uncertain annually resolved estimates. Together, land-use change and fossil CO2 emissions reached an estimated 41.5 ± 3.0 billion tons of CO2 in 2018. The continued high emissions have led to high levels of CO2 accumulation in the atmosphere that amounted to 2.82 ± 0.09 ppm in 2018. This level of atmospheric CO2 is the result of the accumulation of only a part of the total CO2 emitted because about 55% of all emissions are removed by CO2 sinks in the oceans and terrestrial vegetation. Sinks for CO2 are distributed across the hemispheres, on land and oceans, but CO2 fluxes in the tropics (30°S–30°N) are close to carbon neutral due to the CO2 sink being largely offset by emissions from deforestation. Sinks for CO2 in the southern hemisphere are dominated by the removal of CO2 by the oceans, while the stronger sinks in the northern hemisphere have similar contributions from both land and oceans. Comment: The mathematics of the carbon cycle flow accounting includes large and unmeasurable natural flows. These natural flows in the carbon cycle that are an order of magnitude larger than fossil fuel emissions and that cannot be directly measured are inferred with the implicit assumption that the increase in atmospheric CO2 comes from fossil fuel emissions. The flow balance can then be carried out and it does of course show that the increase in atmospheric CO2 derives from fossil fuel emissions [LINK] .
  10. Excerpt #7: In November 2017, a marine heatwave developed in the Tasman Sea that persisted until February 2018. Sea-surface temperatures in the Tasman Sea exceeded 2°C above normal widely and daily sea-surface temperatures exceeded 4°C above normal at certain times. The record high sea-surface temperatures were linked to unusually warm conditions over New Zealand, which had its warmest summer and warmest month (January) on record. It was also the warmest November to January period on record for Tasmania. The warm waters were associated with high humidity and February, though past the peak of the marine heatwave, saw a number of extreme rainfall events in New ZealandComment: Once again short term temperature events are being cited as evidence of long term warming claimed to be caused by fossil fuel emissions. This list of events is particularly noteworthy as an example of where climate science has gone on a fishing expedition looking for events that can be used as alarming evidence of the effect of fossil fuel emissions on climate. In that sense it is circular reasoning and the Texas sharpshooter fallacy with a clear motive of fear based activism as described in this related post: [LINK] .
  11. Excerpt #8: More than 90% of the energy trapped by GHGs goes into the oceans and ocean heat content provides a direct measure of this energy accumulation in the upper layers of the ocean. Unlike surface temperatures, where the incremental long-term increase from one year to the next is typically smaller than the year-to-year variability caused by El Niño and La Niña, ocean heat content is rising more steadily with less pronounced year-to-year fluctuations. Indeed, 2018 set new records for ocean heat content in the upper 700 m (data since 1955) and upper 2000 m (data since 2005), exceeding previous records
    set in 2017. Comment: Once again the authors embark on yet another fishing expedition looking for events that can be used in raising an alarm about climate change and report these events as effects of and therefore the evidence for AGW. The exercise involves circular reasoning and the Texas sharpshooter fallacy. The claim that the atmosphere is the source of all changes in ocean heat content is circular reasoning used in a heat balance that ignores deep ocean heat sources as explained in a related post [LINK] .
  12. Excerpt #9: Sea level is one of the seven key indicators of global climate change highlighted by GCOS4 and adopted by WMO for use in characterizing the state of the global climate in its annual statements. Sea level continues to rise at an accelerated rate. Global mean sea level for 2018 was around 3.7 mm higher than in 2017 and the highest on record. Over the period January 1993 to December 2018, the average rate of rise was 3.15 ± 0.3 mm yr-1, while the estimated acceleration was 0.1 mm yr-2. Accelerated ice mass loss from the ice sheets is the main cause of the global mean sea-level acceleration as revealed by satellite altimetry. Assessing the sea-level budget helps to quantify and understand the causes of sea-level change. Closure of the total sea-level budget means that the observed changes of global mean sea level as determined from satellite altimetry equal the sum of observed contributions from changes in ocean mass and thermal expansion (based on in situ temperature and salinity data, down to 2000 m since 2005 with the international Argo project). Comment: Sea level rise and acceleration of sea level rise are normal in interglacials and these changes are seen in more dramatic form in recent interglacial events such as the Younger Dryas [LINK] and the Eemian [LINK] . These changes do not in themselves imply human cause or that the proposed climate action in the form of reducing fossil fuel emissions will stop sea level rise or change the rate of sea level rise as described in a related post [LINK] .
  13. Excerpt #10: In the past decade, the oceans have absorbed around 30% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Absorbed CO2 reacts with seawater and
    changes ocean pH. This process is known as ocean acidification. Changes in pH are linked to shifts in ocean carbonate chemistry that can affect the ability of marine organisms, such as molluscs and reef-building corals, to build and maintain shells and skeletal material. This makes it particularly important to fully characterize changes in ocean. Comment: The claim that changes in oceanic CO2 are due to fossil fuel emissions is an assumption and the use of this assumption in this mass balance is a case of circular reasoning as described in a related post [LINK] . No paleo data exists that shows the atmosphere can cause ocean acidification. The primary example of ocean acidification in paleo climatology is the PETM described in a related post  [LINK] . In that major ocean acidification event, the source of the carbon that caused acidification was the ocean itself or perhaps the mantle.
  14. Excerpt #11: In 2018, weather and climate events accounted for most of nearly 62 million people affected by natural hazards, according to an analysis of 281 events recorded by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters. Floods continued to affect the largest number, amounting to more than 35 million people in 2018. The CRED statistics also highlight that over 9 million people were affected by drought worldwide, including in Kenya, Afghanistan, and Central America, as well as migration hotspots El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua. There are still some challenges to better quantify these impacts and their association with particular categories of hydrometeorological events.  The highest losses affected the United States resulting from two significant hurricane landfalls – Florence and Michael – with a total loss estimated at nearly US$ 50 billion; much less than the US$ 300 billion loss estimated for 2017, which was among the highest losses in recent years, owing to three major hurricanes affecting the United States and the Caribbean. Comment: That “there are still some challenges” in associating these events with AGW means that we don’t know that they do but let’s list them as if they do so the UN can use this report to serve their fear based activism needs. The data do not show for example that tropical cyclones are being driven by climate change as described in related post posts [LINK]  [LINK]
  15. CONCLUSION: Although the WMO is a meteorological association with a large number of highly qualified meteorologists, their activities and more importantly, their opinions on and evaluation of the anthropogenic climate change issue are guided by the fact that they are a UN organization reporting to the Secretary General Antonio Guterres. It is well known and it is documented in two related posts [LINK] [LINK] that the UN is a climate activist organization and may well be the real driver of fear based climate alarmism to impose its climate action policies upon all nations of the world. Therefore, it is necessary that the WMO State of the Climate reports must meet the UN’s activism requirements needed to rationalize and impose their climate action policies. The unscientific nature of works like the WMO State of the Climate and their alarmist and activist nature derive not from unbiased scientific inquiry but from the nature of their relationship with the United Nations. The WMO State of the Climate 2018 report is available online [LINK] .














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