Thongchai Thailand

Carbon Budgets and Climate Mitigation Pathways

Posted on: January 14, 2019






  1. International emission reduction agreements such as the Paris Agreement are based on the climate science mathematics that relate the rate of warming to the rate of emissions as described below.
  2. Climate mitigation pathways are based on carbon budgets  [LINK] .
  3. Carbon budgets are derived from the TCRE transient climate response to cumulative emission [LINK] .
  4. The TCRE is based on the observed near perfect correlation between mean global temperature and cumulative emissions  [LINK]
  5. This correlation contains a fatal statistical flaw. It has neither time scale nor degrees of freedom[LINK]
  6. When finite time scales are inserted the correlation is lost.  [LINK]
  7. Therefore the correlation is spurious and the TCRE is a specious metric. Although a correlation can be computed and found to be apparently statistically significant when the loss in degrees of freedom is ignored, the value computed has no interpretation in terms of phenomena under study.  [LINK]
  8. The spuriousness of the TCRE can be demonstrated in a parody   [LINK]
  9. CONCLUSION: Carbon budgets and emission pathways are just numbers. Though they can be computed, they have no interpretation in terms of phenomena  they apparently represent.
  10. The speciousness of such carbon budgets and mitigation pathways is best understood in terms of the utility of counting the number of angels that can dance on the head of a pin.




5 Responses to "Carbon Budgets and Climate Mitigation Pathways"

[…] Carbon Budgets and Climate Mitigation Pathways […]

[…] (TCRE) [LINK] [LINK] , and its use in assessment of carbon budgets for a given rate of warming [LINK] . The IPCC’s carbon cycle flow accounting overcomes carbon cycle measurement problems with […]

[…] The TCRE relationship can be used to design climate mitigation actions humans can take to limit the amount of warming from our use of fossil fuels in the form of Climate Mitigation Pathways and Carbon Budgets such that we can actually set a target of how much warming we can tolerate and then dial in a reduced rate of emissions that will produce exactly that amount of warming and not more. This procedure is the foundation of all calls for climate action in the form of overhauling the world’s energy infrastructure away from fossil fuels to green and renewable sources such as solar and wind. The carbon budget is explained in a related post on this site [LINK] . […]


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