Thongchai Thailand

TCRU: A Parody of the TCRE

Posted on: December 3, 2018

















  1. The TCRE (Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Emissions) serves a crucial role in climate science. First, it provides a direct causal link between emissions and warming in support of the two key elements of climate change theory theory that (i) the observed warming since the LIA is driven by fossil fuel emissions, and (ii) that the rate of warming can be moderated by climate action in the form of emission reduction. Even more important, the TCRE provides climate science with a metric for estimating the so called “carbon budget” used by climate action policy makers to determine the maximum total emissions possible to meet total warming targets such as the IPCC 1.5ºC and 2.0ºC targets. For more information about the TCRE and its applications in climate science, please see [2018: Matthews, Damon, “Focus on cumulative emissions, global carbon budgets and the implications for climate mitigation targets.” Environmental Research Letters 13.1 (2018)].
  2. The Environmental Research Letters focus issue on ‘Cumulative Emissions, Global Carbon Budgets and the Implications for Climate Mitigation Targets‘ was launched in 2015 to highlight the emerging science of the climate response to cumulative emissions, and how this can inform efforts to decrease emissions fast enough to avoid dangerous climate impacts. There is also a related post on the TCRE at this site [LINK] where it is argued and demonstrated that the observed proportionality between temperature and cumulative emissions is spurious and that therefore, the TCRE metric and carbon budgets derived from it are specious because the correlation derives from a fortuitous sign pattern in the data where annual emissions are always positive and, in an era of global warming, the amount of warming each year is mostly positive.
  3. This work is a parody of the TCRE that further demonstrates the speciousness of the TCRE metric showing that any variable that matches the sign convention offered by cumulative emissions creates just as good a proportionality as emissions. The variable chosen for this parody demonstration is UFO sightings. Like emissions, UFO sightings each year are either zero or positive but never negative. UFO activity data are available from numerous sources for different regions and periods of time (Bader, 2017) (Donderi, 2013) (Hopkins, 1987) (Picknett, 2001) (Sheaffer, 1998) (Spencer, 1993) (UFO-Info, 2017). A convenient summary is also provided by Wikipedia (Wikipedia, 2018). The data are cross checked against the Wikipedia compilation for completeness.
  4. The sightings data are available as individual sightings and complied into total number of UFO sightings worldwide for each year 1910-2015. It is noted that individual sightings are usually for a number of different spaceships that vary from sighting to sighting and in different reports of the same sighting. For the purpose of this study, UFO activity is defined in terms of sightings without consideration for the number of ships per sighting. The annual sightings data are sparse in the first half of the study period with most years containing no sightings. The data are compiled into a cumulative values series along the lines of the CCR/TCRE procedure in climate science (Allen, 2009) (Matthews, 2009) (Matthews/Solomon, 2012) (Munshi, 2018). The proportionality π between cumulative sightings and surface temperature is computed both as a linear regression coefficient and also as a correlation coefficient and tested for statistical significance. The null hypothesis H0: π=0 is tested against the alternate HA: π>0 in a one-tailed test. Here π represents proportionality estimated as a combination of the strength of the linear regression coefficient and the correlation coefficient.
  5. Global surface temperature reconstructions for the period 1910-2015 are provided by the Hadley Centre of the Met Office of the Government of the UK (Morice, 2012). The data are available as monthly mean temperatures for each calendar month in four distinct region and surface combinations. They are Land in the Northern Hemisphere, Sea in the Northern Hemisphere, Land in the Southern Hemisphere, and Sea in the Southern Hemisphere. Data for each calendar month in each of four distinct surface and region specifications are studied for a total of forty eight different statistical tests of the hypothesis that surface temperature in the study period 1910-2015 is driven by UFO activity. The beginning of the study period of 1910-2015 is constrained by the availability of UFO data and the end is constrained by the data availability at the time the study was carried out.
  6. Figure 1 is a graphical display of the UFO sightings and temperature data used in this work. The results of the analysis of these data using the TCRE methodology is displayed in Figure 2 and tabulated in Figure 3. The left frame of Figure 2 is a graphical display of the correlation between annual mean global temperature and cumulative UFO sightings. The right frame is a presentation of the results for monthly mean temperatures. The numbers 1 to 12 along the coordinate represent the twelve calendar months from January to December. There are two ordinate parameters. The TCRU coefficients for the calendar months, computed as the regression coefficient of monthly mean global temperature against cumulative UFO sightings is shown in blue. The corresponding correlation that supports the validity of the regression coefficient is shown in red. The numerical values for both the TCRU and corresponding correlation are tabulated in Figure 3. Details of the month by month analysis are shown in Figure 4.
  7. the empirical test with available UFO sighting data and surface temperature reconstructions 1910-2015 presented in Figure 1, Figure 2, and Figure 3 shows a strong statistically significant proportionality between temperature and cumulative UFO sightings. We conclude that the data are consistent with the proposition that the observed warming since 1910 can be explained as an effect of UFO sightings perhaps by way of their unnatural perturbation of earth’s gravitational and magnetic fields as suggested by various authors.
  8. It has been proposed that UFO spacecraft contain no mechanism for flying known to man. The consensus among scientists is that the method of flight employed by these craft involve interactions with the earth’s own gravitational and geomagnetic system. Analysis of artifacts retrieved from crashed UFOs as well as the study of the intensification of the Aurora Borealis in the presence of UFOs reveal details of UFO propulsion dynamics that imply a massive and intense interference in the earth’s gravitational and magnetic fields (Potter, 2016) (Mike, 2011) (Ensley, 2013) (LaViolette, 2008) (Sarg, 2009). These electromagnetic and gravitational effects alter the way the earth interacts with its sun (Potter, 2009). Based on these effects of UFOs on the atmosphere and the results of our analysis presented above, we propose that the observed warming since 1910 is related to atmospheric perturbations of UFO activity.










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  2. Bader, C. (2017). Paranormal America: Ghost encounters, UFO sightings, bigfoot hunts, and other curiosities in religion and culture. NY: NYU Press, 2017.
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22 Responses to "TCRU: A Parody of the TCRE"

Well, those UFO’s and their handlers have tapped vast dark energy sources to get here in the first place.

Before my cat errantly pressed quotation and “post comment”, I meant to continue:
Just UFO flybys will warm the place (wink).

Thank you sir. Makes sense. Or should I say, we can find a way to make it make sense.

[…] TCRU: A Parody of the TCRE […]

[…] it has been shown in two related posts  [LINK]  [LINK] that there is a fatal statistical flaw in the TCRE methodology. Correlations between cumulative […]

We were the only species on the African savannah good at chucking rocks.

[…] any target rate of warming. An evaluation of the TCRE is presented in two related posts  [LINK] [LINK] where it is shown that the metric suffers from a fatal statistical flaw and therefore serves […]

[…] any target rate of warming. An evaluation of the TCRE is presented in two related posts  [LINK] [LINK] where it is shown that the metric suffers from a fatal statistical flaw and therefore serves […]

[…] The spuriousness of the TCRE can be demonstrated in a parody   [LINK] […]

[…] include the statistically flawed transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) [LINK] [LINK] , and its use in assessment of carbon budgets for a given rate of warming [LINK] . The […]

[…] A direct relationship that shows how surface temperature responds to fossil fuel emissions has been found by climate scientists. It is called the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Emissions or TCRE for short. This strong proportionality leaves no doubt that human emissions are causing the observed warming of our planet as explained in these related posts [LINK] [LINK] [LINK] . […]

[…] a parody of the procedure that shows that UFO visitations are the real cause of global warming [LINK] . A related post shows that when a finite time scale is inserted into the TCRE, the correlation […]

[…] However, as shown in a related post, the TCRE “proportionality” suffers from a fatal statistical flaw because the correlation has neither time scale nor degrees of freedom [LINK] . When finite time scales are introduced and degrees of freedom are created for the statistical test, the correlation disappears [LINK] . A parody shows that, not just emissions, but any  time series that contains mostly positive values will produce the high “proportionality” seen in the TCRE [LINK] . […]

[…] denial of statistics. The statistical issues with the TCRE are explained in related posts [LINK] [LINK] . The issues in that this statistics error creates in carbon budgets are discussed in these […]

[…] posts at this site that the TCRE is illusory because it is based on a spurious correlation [LINK] [LINK] […]

[…] A climate science anomaly in this regard is the so called TCRE or Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Emissions, a metric that shows a strong correlation between surface temperature and cumulative emissions and thereby a reliable and statistically significant regression coefficient that measures the warming effect of each teraton of cumulative emissions. Since this relationship is stable from the start date 1850, there was no need to move the start date forward to stabilize this measure. The start date for AGW therefore stays at 1850 when the TCRE is used. Such anomalies of convenience do not engender a great deal of confidence in climate science, particularly so when a closer look at the statistics of the TCRE reveals that it is based on a spurious correlation as explained in these related posts [LINK] [LINK] . […]

I had not seen this parody. Belly ache laughed out loud.

Reblogged this on budbromley and commented:
This is really funny.

with thanks to my wife for the idea that it would take a parody to demonstrate the spuriousness of the TCRE.

[…] where temperature is best understood in this context as cumulative annual warming. LINK: . A demonstration of this statistical fallacy in the TCRE is provided in the Youtube video […]

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