FIGURE 1: NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACE AND EMISSIONS

FIGURE 2: GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ACE AND EMISSIONS

RELATED POST: Climate Change and Hurricanes

1. This post is a parody of the spuriousness of correlations between cumulative values presented in three prior posts Correlation Between Cumulative Emissions and Cumulative Sea Level Rise  TCRE: Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Emissions  Spurious Correlations in Climate Science . It is derived from a source document that presents a study of total globally averaged accumulated cyclone energy of tropical cyclones in all six basins. The full text of this paper may be downloaded from SSRN.COM  or  ACADEMIA.EDU . ABSTRACT: The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index is used to compare tropical cyclone activity worldwide among seven decades from 1945 to 2014. Some increase in tropical cyclone activity is found relative to the earliest decades. No trend is found after the decade 1965-1974. A comparison of the six cyclone basins in the study shows that the Western Pacific Basin is the most active basin and the North Indian Basin the least. The advantages of using a general linear model for trend analysis are described
2. Here we show that the use of spurious correlations between cumulative values can be used to present faux correlations between cumulative emissions and cumulative ACE of tropical cyclones both worldwide (as one would expect in accordance with the climate model works of Knutson and co-authors in his well known 2010 paper) but also a strong faux correlation of the cumulative ACE of North Atlantic Hurricanes with cumulative global fossil fuel emissions.
3. Figure 1 contains three panels each with two frames. The top panel presents the emissions data at an annual time scale in the left frame and their cumulative values in the right frame. The middle panel, likewise, displays the ACE data for tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic Basin where cyclones are called “hurricanes”. The correlation between emissions and total hurricane ACE is displayed in the bottom panel where a weak or non-existent correlation is seen at an annual time scale in the left panel but a strong faux correlation is found when cumulative values are taken as shown in the right frame.
4. The corresponding data for all tropical cyclones globally for all six basins are presented in the two panels of Figure 2 where we also find little if any correlation in the source data but a strong proportionality between cumulative values.
5. The proportionality between cumulative values are specious. They have no interpretation except that when the x and y values tend to have similar signs – either positive or negative – strong correlations will be seen; and when they randomly differ in signs, no correlation will be found. The only information contained in the proportionality between cumulative values is that the two variables being compared tend to have the same sign. Emissions are always positive and ACE values too are also positive. This is the only information contained in the strong correlations between cumulative values shown in Figures 1&2.
6. Correlation between cumulative values are spurious because the computation of cumulative values involves repeated use of the same data to the point where the effective sample size is reduced to N=2. This means that time series of cumulative values contain neither time scale not degrees of freedom and therefore they do not contain useful information.
7. The conclusions presented above are supported by prior studies of correlations between cumulative values with full text download available at both SSRN.COM & ACADEMIA.EDU:
8.  SSRN1 SSRN2  SSRN3  SSRN4   SSRN5  
9. ACADEMIA1   ACADEMIA2  ACADEMIA3   ACADEMIA4  ACADEMIA5 . 
10. A related work on the proportionality between cumulative emissions and cumulative warming may be found here: TCRE: Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Emissions.

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