Thongchai Thailand

Total Hurricane Energy & Fossil Fuel Emissions

Posted on: September 15, 2018

 

FIGURE 1: NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACE AND EMISSIONS

NA-FIG1

NA-FIG2

NA-FIG3

 

FIGURE 2: GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ACE AND EMISSIONS

GL-FIG2

GL-FIG3

 

RELATED POST: Climate Change and Hurricanes

 

  1. This post is a parody of the spuriousness of correlations between cumulative values presented in three prior posts Correlation Between Cumulative Emissions and Cumulative Sea Level Rise  TCRE: Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Emissions  Spurious Correlations in Climate Science . It is derived from a source document that presents a study of total globally averaged accumulated cyclone energy of tropical cyclones in all six basins. The full text of this paper may be downloaded from SSRN.COM  or  ACADEMIA.EDU . ABSTRACT: The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index is used to compare tropical cyclone activity worldwide among seven decades from 1945 to 2014. Some increase in tropical cyclone activity is found relative to the earliest decades. No trend is found after the decade 1965-1974. A comparison of the six cyclone basins in the study shows that the Western Pacific Basin is the most active basin and the North Indian Basin the least. The advantages of using a general linear model for trend analysis are described
  2. Here we show that the use of spurious correlations between cumulative values can be used to present faux correlations between cumulative emissions and cumulative ACE of tropical cyclones both worldwide (as one would expect in accordance with the climate model works of Knutson and co-authors in his well known 2010 paper) but also a strong faux correlation of the cumulative ACE of North Atlantic Hurricanes with cumulative global fossil fuel emissions.
  3. Figure 1 contains three panels each with two frames. The top panel presents the emissions data at an annual time scale in the left frame and their cumulative values in the right frame. The middle panel, likewise, displays the ACE data for tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic Basin where cyclones are called “hurricanes”. The correlation between emissions and total hurricane ACE is displayed in the bottom panel where a weak or non-existent correlation is seen at an annual time scale in the left panel but a strong faux correlation is found when cumulative values are taken as shown in the right frame.
  4. The corresponding data for all tropical cyclones globally for all six basins are presented in the two panels of Figure 2 where we also find little if any correlation in the source data but a strong proportionality between cumulative values.
  5. The proportionality between cumulative values are specious. They have no interpretation except that when the x and y values tend to have similar signs – either positive or negative – strong correlations will be seen; and when they randomly differ in signs, no correlation will be found. The only information contained in the proportionality between cumulative values is that the two variables being compared tend to have the same sign. Emissions are always positive and ACE values too are also positive. This is the only information contained in the strong correlations between cumulative values shown in Figures 1&2.
  6. Correlation between cumulative values are spurious because the computation of cumulative values involves repeated use of the same data to the point where the effective sample size is reduced to N=2. This means that time series of cumulative values contain neither time scale not degrees of freedom and therefore they do not contain useful information.
  7. The conclusions presented above are supported by prior studies of correlations between cumulative values with full text download available at both SSRN.COM & ACADEMIA.EDU:
  8.  SSRN1 SSRN2  SSRN3  SSRN4   SSRN5  
  9. ACADEMIA1   ACADEMIA2  ACADEMIA3   ACADEMIA4  ACADEMIA5 
  10. A related work on the proportionality between cumulative emissions and cumulative warming may be found here: TCRE: Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Emissions.

 

RELATED POSTS

Climate Change and Hurricanes

Correlation Between Cumulative Emissions and Cumulative Sea Level Rise

TCRE: Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Emissions

A CO2 Radiative Forcing Seasonal Cycle?

Climate Change: Theory vs Data

Correlation of CMIP5 Forcings with Temperature

Stratospheric Cooling

The Anomalies in Temperature Anomalies

The Greenhouse Effect of Atmospheric CO2

ECS: Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity

Climate Sensitivity Research: 2014-2018

TCR: Transient Climate Response

Peer Review of Climate Research: A Case Study

Spurious Correlations in Climate Science

Antarctic Sea Ice: 1979-2018

Arctic Sea Ice 1979-2018

Global Warming and Arctic Sea Ice: A Bibliography

Global Warming and Arctic Sea Ice: A Bibliography

Carbon Cycle Measurement Problems Solved with Circular Reasoning

NASA Evidence of Human Caused Climate Change

Event Attribution Science: A Case Study

Event Attribution Case Study Citations

Global Warming Trends in Daily Station Data

History of the Global Warming Scare

The dearth of scientific knowledge only adds to the alarm

Nonlinear Dynamics: Is Climate Chaotic?

The Anthropocene

Eco-Fearology in the Anthropocene

Carl Wunsch Assessment of Climate Science: 2010

Gerald Marsh, A Theory of Ice Ages

History of the Ozone Depletion Scare

Empirical Test of Ozone Depletion

Ozone Depletion Chemistry

Brewer-Dobson Circulation Bibliography

Elevated CO2 and Crop Chemistry

Little Ice Age Climatology: A Bibliography

Sorcery Killings, Witch Hunts, & Climate Action

Climate Impact of the Kuwait Oil Fires: A Bibliography

Noctilucent Clouds: A Bibliography

Climate Change Denial Research: 2001-2018

Climate Change Impacts Research

Tidal Cycles: A Bibliography

3 Responses to "Total Hurricane Energy & Fossil Fuel Emissions"

I believe that Salby says that CO2 content is proportional to the integral if temperature. Would that relation also be due to the spurious nature you discuss here?

YES SIR. ALTHOUGH A FAN OF SALBY I STRONGLY DISAGREE ON THAT POINT. HE TOO HAD FALLEN FOR THAT SUCKER CORRELATION BETWEEN CUMULATIVE VALUES.

HE WAS RIGHT ON A LOT OF THINGS.
https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/05/31/the-carbon-cycle-measurement-problem/

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: