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ozonehole

[LIST OF POSTS AT THIS SITE]

 

  1. PRIOR TO FARMAN ET AL 1985: The SST program of 1969: A plan to develop high altitude supersonic airliners with the Boeing 2707 as a concept vehicle. The very high cruising altitude of the SST raised environmental alarms that included both climate change and ozone depletion.
  2. 1969: Climate change: An alarm is raised that chemicals and aerosols in the exhaust of the SST jet engines will cause climate change.
  3. 1970: Ozone depletion: The climate change theory is quietly shelved after critical reviews by skeptics and a new alarm is raised. Water vapor in the SST jet exhaust will cause a 4% depletion of ozone in the ozone layer causing 40,000 additional cases of skin cancer every year in the USA alone.
  4. 1970: Ozone depletion: The water vapor theory is quietly forgotten after critical reviews by skeptics who produced data showing that higher levels of water in the stratosphere is coincident with higher levels of ozone.
  5. 1970: Ozone depletion: A new ozone depletion theory emerges. Nitric oxide (NOx) in the SST jet exhaust will cause ozone depletion because NOx acts as a catalyst to destroy ozone without being consumed in the process.
  6. 1971: Ozone depletion: A computer model is developed to assess the impact of NOx in SST exhaust on the ozone layer. The model predicts that there will be a 50% ozone depletion and a worldwide epidemic of skin cancer. Animals that venture out during daylight will become blinded by UV radiation. It was an apocalyptic scenario.
  7. 1971: Ozone depletion: NOx in the fireball of open air nuclear tests provide a ready laboratory to test the ozone depletion properties of NOx. The computer model predicted 10% ozone depletion by NOx from nuclear testing. Measurements showed no ozone depletion; but the model won anyway and the ozone depletion scare endured.
  8. 1972: Death of the SST: We were so frightened by the ozone depletion scare that the SST program was canceled although America’s skies soon became filled with supersonic fighters and bombers spewing NOx without any evidence of ozone depletion or of skin cancer or of blindness in animals.
  9. 1973: Space Shuttle: Unperturbed by the skeptics and emboldened by their SST success, fear mongering scientists turn their attention to the proposed Space Shuttle program. The shuttle design included two solid fuel rockets that emit hydrogen chloride (HCl). Scientists calculated that 50 flights per year would deposit 5000 tons of HCl per year in the stratosphere that could cause a 10% ozone depletion over Florida and 1% to 2% elsewhere. Although the scare was hyped it never got to the SST levels and the space shuttle miraculously survived the ozone scare.
  10. 1974: Ozone depletion: The ozone depletion game was now in full gear. Having tasted the power of being able to inflict debilitating fear of ozone depletion, scientists embarked on a fishing expedition to find other chemicals generated by human activity that could get up to the stratosphere and catalyze the chemical reactions of ozone depletion.
  11. 1974: CFC: A new candidate agent for ozone depletion is found. Chlorofluorocarbons are synthetic chemicals used in aerosol sprays and in refrigerant for air conditioners and refrigerators. CFC emissions to the atmosphere accumulate in the stratosphere because there are no sinks to remove them from the lower atmosphere. Up in the stratosphere they are able to catalyze the destruction of ozone. The ozone depletion game was thus begun anew.
  12. 1974: Doomsday Theory: When CFCs rise to the stratosphere they are decomposed by UV radiation to release chlorine. The chlorine ion can then catalyze thousands of ozone destruction cycles without being consumed. Up to 40% of the ozone will be destroyed. The chlorine theory was old but its ready supply from CFCs was a completely new angle and so a new doomsday scenario was quickly sketched out for dissemination.
  13. 1974: NY Times, September 26, a big day for Doomsday journalism. The NYT predicts ozone depletion of 18% by 1990 and 50% by 2030 by CFCs will cause an epidemic of skin cancer, mutation of frogs, and blindness in animals and humans. The whole world is frightened. The ozone scare had begun anew this time with CFC as the agent of ozone depletion. The scare was very successful and it appeared in various forms almost every day in newspapers and on television for the next two decades.
  14. FARMAN (1985). Large losses of total ozone in Antarctica reveal seasonal ClOx/NOx interaction. Nature , 315.207-210. This paper is a landmark event in the history of the ozone scare. It got the modern version of the ozone depletion scare started.
  15. March 10, 1987: Skin cancer is increasing in the United States at a near epidemic rate, outstripping predictions made as recently as five years ago, a research physician testified Monday before a House panel examining threats to the Earth’s protective ozone layer. Malignant melanoma, the deadliest form of skin cancer, has increased 83 percent in the last seven years alone. Melanoma is increasing faster than any other cancer except lung cancer in women.
  16. March 12, 1987 Consensus among scientists: If harmful UV radiation reached the Earth, it would cause monumental problems, including rampant skin cancer and eye cataracts, retarded crop growth, impairment of the human immune system and damaging radiation doses to all forms of life. Although many Americans and the people of other nations are still not listening or taking the ozone threat seriously, the Earth’s protective shield is getting thinner and developing mysterious holes. There is a growing consensus among scientists that ozone destruction is caused by the accumulation in the upper atmosphere of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), a class of industrial chemicals used for refrigerants, aerosols, insulation, foam packaging and other uses.
  17. August 23, 1987: Ozone Hole: Scientists have begun the largest study ever of the depletion of the ozone layer in the atmosphere by sending a modified spy plane on missions 12 1/2 miles above Antarctica. The flights this past week were part of a $10-million project being carried out by a 120-member team of scientists, engineers and technicians who hope to decipher a mysterious ozone hole that has been detected over Antarctic each winter for the past eight years.
  18. September 24, 1987 The Montreal Protocol: Sometimes when the world seems bent on self-destruction, a ray of hope pierces the darkness. A historic first international agreement to protect the Earth’s ozone layer inspires that kind of encouragement. Twenty-four nations plus the European Community signed the Montreal Protocol to reduce production of synthetic chemicals that float to the stratosphere and erode the ozone layer, the invisible shield that filters out the sun’s harmful ultraviolet rays. The world’s leading scientists have warned that the continuing destruction of ozone by man-made chemicals would cause sharp increases in skin cancer and cataracts, damage crops, forests and marine life and cause other environmental changes.
  19. October 1, 1987: Ozone levels above Antarctica reached an all-time low since measurements began and scientists said Wednesday that they found strong evidence indicating that man-made Freon-type gases are to blame. Ozone is the only gas in the atmosphere that filters out harmful amounts of ultraviolet radiation from the sun. Estimates endorsed by the Environmental Protection Agency say that for every one percent of ozone decrease in the global atmosphere, there could be 20,000 more skin cancer cases annually in the United States.
  20. November 27, 1987: The hole in the ozone radiation shield over Antarctica is caused by chlorine from gases used for years as propellants in spray cans, scientists confirmed Thursday. The chemical reaction that causes the depletion is possible only in the presence of polar clouds, composed of tiny ice crystals, and the amount of sunlight that reaches the South Pole in late winter and early spring, scientists wrote. It’s only recently we began looking at ice particles as possible participants,“ said Mario Molina, an atmospheric chemist at the California Institute of Technology’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena.
  21. December 20, 1987: The frigid air over Antarctica took three weeks longer than usual to warm at the onset of the Antarctic spring this year, prompting concern that the ozone hole discovered over the icy continent less than three years ago may be affecting global climate. According to satellite data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the polar vortex – a whirlpool-like mass of extremely cold air that forms over Antarctica in the dark winter months – broke up in late November. The vortex normally breaks up in late October or early November, when spring brings sunlight back to the South Pole and warms the atmosphere.
  22. February 7, 1988: Global warming and further deterioration of the upper atmosphere’s protective ozone layer can be expected to accelerate the formation of smog in major cities across the United States, a new study for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has found. Based on a year-long examination, researchers said that smog would be formed earlier in the day under conditions of global warming and a depleted upper atmospheric ozone shield. In the most polluted cities, the global effects would also increase maximum ground level ozone concentrations.
  23. March 4, 1988: The amount of methane gas in the atmosphere has risen 11 percent since 1978, possibly speeding the seasonal loss of protective ozone above Antarctica but blocking the same depletion over the rest of the Earth, researchers say. “We’re changing the atmosphere in a rather rapid way. It’s hard to tell what the eventual consequences will be, but there are several ways it may have a strong impact on man, said Sherwood Rowland, a chemist at the University of California, Irvine (UCI), whose study was published today in the journal Science.
  24. September 21, 1988: Earth’s protective ozone layer will continue to be eroded by chlorine even if ozone depleting chemicals known as chlorofluorcarbons (CFCs) are phased out, an environmental group said Tuesday. But the Environmental Policy Institute concluded in a report that if two other chlorine producing compounds – methyl chloroform and carbon tetrachloride – were also eliminated, the amount of chlorine in the atmosphere could decline significantly over the next three decades.
  25. December 4, 1988: Earth’s protective ozone layer is thinning more than expected in northern regions of the globe, say scientists who detailed Tuesday an intense research effort to try to find out the reasons why. While the so-called ozone hole over the South Pole has attracted the most media attention, a lesser but still significant thinning also has been found in the North.
  26. February 3, 1989: Scientists working in the Northwest Territories fear that serious damage to the ozone layer over the Arctic Ocean is imminent, a senior official said Thursday. Wayne Evans, experimental studies chief for Environment Canada, said its High Arctic weather team has discovered the presence of dense ice clouds similar to those that have helped cause a huge hole in the ozone over Antarctica.
  27. February 18, 1989: Earth’s protective ozone layer seems to have broken down over the Arctic, a team of international scientists said Friday. They said it is not yet clear to what extent pollution may be to blame. About 150 scientists from various countries have been investigating the ozone layer for six weeks from a base in Stavanger on Norway’s west coast. The ozone layer is important because it filters out harmful solar rays. If ozone levels are significantly reduced, scientists say, it could lead to an increase in some skin cancers, crop failures and damage to marine life.
  28. March 21, 1989: Humankind has suddenly entered into a brand new relationship with our planet. Unless we quickly and profoundly change the course of our civilization, we face an immediate and grave danger of destroying the worldwide ecological system that sustains life as we know it. In 1939, as clouds of war gathered over Europe, many refused to recognize what was about to happen. No one could imagine a Holocaust, even after shattered glass had filled the streets on Kristallnacht. World leaders waffled and waited, hoping that Hitler was not what he seemed, that world war could be avoided. Later, when aerial photographs revealed death camps, many pretended not to see. Today, clouds of a different sort signal an environmental holocaust without precedent. Once again, world leaders waffle, hoping the danger will dissipate. Yet today the evidence is as clear as the sounds of glass shattering in Berlin.
  29. September 24, 1989: A hole has opened in the atmosphere’s ozone shield above Antarctica, and scientists say it is growing at the same rate as the one in 1987 which broke records. Ozone in the earth’s stratosphere normally blocks most ultraviolet radiation from the sun, shielding people and wildlife from harmful radiation effects. But certain chemicals released into the air – chlorofluorocarbons used in refrigerators, air conditioners, and spray cans – are destroying ozone. Scientists fear an epidemic of skin cancer and other radiation-induced diseases will result.
  30. March 15, 1990: The holes in the world’s protective ozone layer will still be there in 2060 and beyond even if we restrict the use of damaging chemicals, the United Nations’ leading environmental official said Wednesday.
  31. October 10, 1991: NASA reported Wednesday that a satellite passing over Antarctica had measured the lowest stratospheric ozone level on record, an ominous indication of potential global health risks.
  32. October 24, 1991: The rate of ozone depletion has accelerated and will continue at the higher rate in the 1990s, requiring a more rapid phasing out of chlorofluorocarbons and other manmade chemicals that destroy ozone in the atmosphere.
  33. November 22, 1991: A fleet of planes spraying 50,000 tons of propane or ethane high over the South Pole possibly could neutralize the Antarctic ozone hole, scientists say.
  34. February 4, 1992: Government scientists say they have recorded the highest levels of ozone-damaging chemicals ever measured over the northern hemisphere, making it likely an ozone hole will develop this winter over parts of the United States, Canada and Europe3. “Everybody should be alarmed about this,” Michael J. Kurylo, manager of the upper atmosphere research program at NASA, said Monday. “We’re seeing conditions primed for ozone destruction. It’s in a far worse way that we thought.” Kurylo said aircraft and satellite instruments have measured levels of chlorine monoxide, a manmade chemical byproduct, at up to 1.5 parts per billion, the highest levels ever recorded.
  35. September 6, 1992: As of July 1, 1992 it became illegal to vent refrigerant gases into the atmosphere. These gases contain chlorofluorocarbons, or CFCs, which do the cooling. Scientists believe that CFCs released into the air have been rising into the stratosphere where they have been destroying the earth’s protective ozone layer. Ozone helps filter out some of the sun’s ultraviolet rays. Those rays cause skin cancer and, because of holes in the ozone layer, health experts expect an extra 12-million cases of skin cancer over the next 50 years.
  36. September 30, 1992: Satellite measurements show the ozone hole over Antarctica is now the largest on record and almost three times larger than the area of the United States, NASA announced Tuesday. The space agency said measurements by the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer instrument aboard the Nimbus-7 satellite showed last week the south polar territory under a depleted ozone area of the atmosphere extended for about 8.9-million square miles, about 15 percent larger than the ozone hole measured in 1991. Ozone, composed of three oxygen atoms, is a natural chemical in the atmosphere. It acts as a filter against damaging ultraviolet radiation from the sun. Chemical reactions can destroy ozone by stripping away one atom of oxygen, removing the shielding effect of ozone.
  37. November 1, 1992: The EPA publishes its ozone tutorial as follows: The ozone layer consists of: Free oxygen atom (O), two oxygen atoms making an oxygen molecule (O2), and three oxygen atoms making an ozone molecule (O3). The Antarctic ozone hole was feared as a precursor to ozone holes over populated areas. Oxygen molecules are transformed into ozone by the sun’s ultraviolet (UV) radiation, which splits the oxygen molecule into two free oxygen atoms. The free oxygen atoms bind to other oxygen molecules forming ozone. The ozone molecules also are broken up by UV radiation, converting it back into one free oxygen atom and one oxygen molecule. This continuous cycle occurs normally in the stratosphere. Once chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), consisting of atoms of carbon, fluorine and chlorine (CI), reach the ozone layer, UV radiation breaks off an atom of chlorine. A free chlorine atom reacts easily with other molecules. When it collides with an ozone molecule, it can break up the molecule by stripping away an oxygen atom.
  38. November 26, 1992: Future accumulations of a gas that promotes global warming may lead to ozone “holes” over the Arctic similar to those now detected over Antarctica, a study says. The ozone reduction would expose Arctic wildlife to more ultraviolet radiation and might mean transient increased exposures for people elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere. Ultraviolet radiation promotes skin cancer and cataracts.
  39. November 26, 1992: Spurred by recent evidence that Earth’s protective ozone layer is being depleted more extensively than feared, a U.N. environmental conference agreed Wednesday to move up the deadline for eliminating some ozone depleting substances to the end of 1995. Representatives of 87 countries moved up the phase out deadline from the year 2000 to January 1, 1996. The chemicals affected, mainly chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs, are industrial chemicals widely used as refrigerants, solvents and cleaning agents. The delegates set an even earlier deadline of 1994, for chemicals known as halons, which are used in fire extinguishers. The delegates also set a timetable for eliminating hydrochlorofluorocarbons, or HCFCs. Industry has been relying on these chemicals as interim substitutes for the more potent ozone depleting substances pending the development of permanent substitutes. HCFCs, which still deplete ozone but not as much as the chemicals they replace, are now to be eliminated in stages starting in the year 2004 and ending in 2030.
  40. April 23, 1993: The ozone layer, Earth’s protective shield against ultraviolet radiation, has dropped to record-low levels over the Northern Hemisphere, including the United States. A research team reports in today’s issue of the journal Science that the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines may have accelerated ozone depletion. Scientists said one of the ways the volcano could have contributed to the lower ozone levels is by its release of microscopic dust particles into the upper atmosphere. The losses, expected to persist into summer, include an average drop of 12 percent over the mid-latitudes where most Americans, Canadians and Europeans live, and a dip of 15 percent over the West Coast, including California. Ozone is down by as much as 20 percent over Northern Canada, Greenland, Norway, parts of Alaska and Siberia.
  41. September 24, 1993: Calling the drop in atmospheric ozone “an unprecedented decrease,” the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said the ozone appears to have been gobbled up by chemical reactions involving manmade chlorine compounds and an enormous blast of dust from the Mount Pinatubo volcano in the Philippines.
  42. October 19, 1993: Ozone levels over the Antarctic have dropped to record lows over the past month, creating a polar “ozone hole” bigger than Europe, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said late last week. The United Nations agency said levels of the gas over the southern pole had regularly fallen below 100 Dobson units, “representing the lowest absolute daily minimum ever recorded in the history of ozone observations.” & “It’s the worst we’ve seen yet,” WMO ozone expert Rumen Bojkov told Reuters. “It is lower now than we had thought was possible.”
  43. August 27, 1994: The protective ozone layer over North America has rebounded from its extremely low level of two winters ago, but that doesn’t mean it’s time to relax. High-altitude “ozone over the U.S. during the winter of 1993-1994 recovered from the record low values of the previous winter,” a team of scientists reports in Geophysical Research Letters. Ozone levels that were as much as 15 percent below normal in 1992-1993 have risen to slightly above normal. The layer of ozone high in the atmosphere helps block dangerous ultraviolet radiation from the sun. Too much of this radiation can lead to skin cancer, premature aging of the skin and eye damage.
  44. December 21, 1994: Three years of data from a NASA satellite have provided conclusive evidence that man-made chlorine in the stratosphere is the primary cause of the ozone hole above Antarctica, scientists said this week. “The detection of stratospheric fluorine gases, which are not natural, eliminates the possibility that chlorine from volcanic eruptions or some other natural source is
    responsible for the ozone hole,” NASA’s Mark Schoeberl said Monday.
  45. October 30, 2000: This year the ozone hole over Antarctica has reached its lowest level since scientists began these measurements. According to the U.N. World Meteorological Organization, monitoring stations around have reported ozone measurements that are 50 percent to 70 percent below the norms 30 years ago.
  46. December 7, 2005: Current computer models suggest the ozone hole should recover globally by 2040 or 2050, but Tuesday’s analysis suggests the hole won’t heal until about 2065.
  47. April 5, 2011: The WMO reports as follows: Depletion of the ozone layer- the shield that protects life on Earth from harmful levels of ultraviolet rays – has reached an unprecedented level over the Arctic this spring because of the continuing presence of ozone-depleting substances in the atmosphere and a very cold winter in the stratosphere. The stratosphere is the second major layer of the Earth’s atmosphere, just above the troposphere. The record loss is despite an international agreement which has been very successful in cutting production and consumption of ozone destroying chemicals. Because of the long atmospheric lifetimes of these compounds it will take several decades before their concentrations are back down to pre-1980 levels, the target agreed in the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer.
  48. May 19, 2015: NASA declares that the ozone depletion problem has been solved by the Montreal Protocol’s global ban on ozone depleting substances.
  49. SCIENCE GONE WRONG
  50. EMPIRICAL TESTS OF OZONE DEPLETION
  51. OZONE CHEMISTRY
  52. BREWER-DOBSON CIRCULATION
  53. SUPERSTITION

 

[LIST OF POSTS AT THIS SITE]

 

dove

WITH APOLOGIES TO BOB DYLAN

THE CLIMATE MY FRIEND IS CHANGING

 

How many roads must a man walk down

Before he can see the climate change

How many seas must a white dove sail

Before the sea levels rise

Yes, and how many times must the airliners fly

Before they’re forever banned

The climate, my friend, is changing with the wind

The climate is changing with the wind

 

Yes, and how many years can deniers exist

Before they come back to sanity  

Yes, and how many years must the science exist

Before they let consensus be

Yes, and how many times can a man turn his head

And pretend that he just doesn’t see

The climate, my friend, is changing with the wind

The climate is changing with the wind

POLARBEAR2

RELATED POST: EVE OF DESTRUCTION

RELATED POST: THE CLIMATE PHOBIA MENTAL ILLNESS DERIVES FROM OUR NATURAL TENDENCY TO SUPERSTITION AND CONFIRMATION BIAS [LINK]

climate-protest

antarcticseaice

seasonalcycle

FEBMINCHART

SEPMAXCHART

antarctica

RELATED POSTARCTIC SEA ICE 1979-2018

  1. Sea ice consists of free floating floes in constant motion driven by wind and ocean currents. Sea ice extent is defined as a contiguous surface area of the sea, measured in millions of square kilometers (MSK), where at least 15% of the sea surface consists of floating ice. On average, the dispersion of sea ice within a sea ice extent varies from 50% to 80% (Munshi, Trends in polar sea ice extent, 2015). Both sea ice extent and the degree of dispersion within the extent can be estimated in the brightness data of passive microwave images taken from satellite mounted instruments (Comiso, 1997). Dispersed sea ice extent corrected for dispersion is reported as concentrated sea ice extent and referred to as sea ice area (NSIDC, 2016). An intense interest in polar sea ice extent in the climate change era derives from the proposition that a multi-year decline in sea ice extent serves as an index of the impact of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) (Lacis, 2010) (Hansen, 1981) (IPCC, 2014) (Comiso, 2002) and also because the reduction in albedo due to lost polar sea ice could accelerate AGW and further complicate its effects on the climate system (Comiso, 2008) (Winton, 2006) (Perovich, 2007) (Serreze, 2007).
  2. Sea ice area undergoes a deep seasonal cycle in both poles. The seasonal cycle in the Antarctic is the reverse of that in the Arctic. Here the summer minimum is reached in February (2 MSK) with a winter maximum (14.5 MSK) in September. The amplitude of these seasonal changes is much greater than the differences implied by long term declining trends. (Parkinson, 2002) (Cavalieri, 2012) (Munshi, Trends in polar sea ice area, 2015). Because of these large seasonal changes, trend analyses of sea ice area is usually restricted to the summer minimum and winter maximum months or carried out for each calendar month separately.
  3. The charts above show that air temperature and sea ice area are inversely related in the average seasonal cycle. This visual intuition is confirmed by the correlation between temperature and sea ice area in their average seasonal cycles . The computed values are R = -0.8607 in the Arctic where changes in sea ice area are mostly a seasonal phenomenon, and R = -0.9123 in the Antarctic where changes in sea ice area are almost entirely a seasonal phenomenon. The observed month to month seasonal relationship between air temperature and sea ice area suggests that long term inter-annual trends in sea ice area for each month of the calendar year should be related to air temperature and that this relationship should be measurable at an annual time scale.
  4. Long term full span trends, 1979-2018 for January to July and 1979-2017 for August to December, for both sea ice area and temperature are tabulated above for each calendar month. The relevant measure of global warming for the Antarctic is taken as the zonal mean for lower troposphere temperature anomalies for oceans in the south polar region as reported by the University of Alabama Huntsville (Christy/Spencer, 2018). The table above shows mostly rising trends in sea ice and mostly cooling trends in temperature but no statistically significant long term trend is found in the Antarctic for either temperature or sea ice area.
  5. Quite unlike the Arctic, the Antarctic shows neither global warming nor year to year sea ice decline. There is no sign of global warming in this portion of the globe. The observed trends and their statistical insignificance are depicted graphically in the two charts above the table of trend and correlation values. They show that for the two seasonal extremes, the February Minimum and the September Maximum sea ice area, no trends are seen either for warming or for sea ice area. These data do not support the usual assumption that global warming is causing a decline in Antarctic sea ice.

 

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ECS: Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity

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Spurious Correlations in Climate Science

Antarctic Sea Ice: 1979-2018

Arctic Sea Ice 1979-2018

Global Warming and Arctic Sea Ice: A Bibliography

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The Anthropocene

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History of the Ozone Depletion Scare

Empirical Test of Ozone Depletion

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THE HOLOCENE

minoan5

RELATED POST ON HOLOCENE TEMPERATURE DYNAMICS [LINK]

Schematic chart about the spring-neap tidal variation in a lunar ...

harald

SYZYGY ALIGNMENT 

Figure 7

Figure 6

FIGURE 5: Glacial-Holocene deep-sea core record of ice-rafted debris, petrology, and isotopes of the North Atlantic Ocean basin which shows evidence of pervasive millennial-scale fluctuations in climate. Overlaid in red are times of peak forcing in the 1,800-year tidal cycle.

Figure 5

FIGURE 4: Multitaper spectral analysis of glacial-Holocene petrologic events from cores VM 29–191 and VM 23–81 compared with periodicities in tidal forcing. Overlain in red are the averages of the 1,800- and 5,000-year tidal periods (A) and times of peak forcing of the former cycle (B). Tidal timing and periodicity assume invariant orbital parameters, except for the 5,800-year period that is based on assuming secular variability of climatic precession, as described in the “Secular Variations in Tidal Forcing”

Figure 4

FIGURE 3: Varying strength of the global tide raising forces with parameters that reveal the basis for the 1,800- and 5,000-year tidal cycles, as described in the text. The plots are for a hypothetical 110-kyr sequence of tidal events beginning with the moon, sun, and earth in perfect alignment and closest approach (zero separation-intervals), producing a maximum γ of 17.165° per day never again attained. Tidal events occurring near peaks in the 5,000-year cycle (near zero crossings of top plot) are connected by straight lines to reveal their pattern (which includes a 23-kyr cycle not discussed in the text).Figure 3

FIGURE 2: Millennial periodicity in tide raising forces since 500 B.C. The angular velocity, γ, was computed from functions listed in Table 2. Events of a 180-year cycle, all at full moon, are labeled with times of occurrence (B.C. or A.D.). The 1,800-year cycle is evident as a progression of solar-lunar declination difference, listed at the top of the figure in degrees of arc of the moon above (or below) the ecliptic.Figure 2

FIGURE 1: Varying strength in tide raising forces. Each event, shown by a vertical line, gives a measure of the forcing in terms of the angular velocity of the moon, γ, in arc degrees per day, at the time of the event. Arcs connect events of strong 18.03-year tidal sequences. Centennial maxima are labeled, with the final one, “D”, occurring in A.D. 2151.Figure 1

TIDAL CYCLES AND GLOBAL WARMING

  1. THE TIDAL CYCLE THEORY OF CLIMATE CHANGE EXPLAINS THE 12,000 YEAR HISTORY OF MILLENNIAL SCALE WARMING AND COOLING CYCLES SEEN IN THE HOLOCENE [LINK] . IN CONTRAST, THE CLIMATE SCIENCE AGW CLIMATE CHANGE THEORY EXPLAINS THE POST LIA WARMING BUT HAS NO EXPLANATION FOR THE OTHER WARMING AND COOLING CYCLES OF THE HOLOCENE [LINK] .
  2. HERE WE PRESENT A BIBLIOGRAPHY ON THIS SUBJECT OF TIDAL CYCLE RESONANCE. THE KEELING AND WHORF 2000 PAPER THAT CONSIDERS THE CLIMATE EFFECTS OF GRAVITATIONAL INTERACTIONS AMONG SUN, EARTH, AND MOON ONLY IS DESCRIBED IN SOME DETAIL BELOW. IT IS NOTED THAT OTHER PAPERS IN THE BIBLIOGRAPHY BELOW, VOISIN 2020 IN PARTICULAR, ALSO INCLUDE GRAVITATIONAL INTERACTIONS AMONG THE PLANETS – SPECIFICALLY THAT BETWEEN EARTH AND VENUS. 
  3. Tides are the creation of the gravitational interactions among earth, sun, and moon. This interaction is able to create the energy required to form tides on earth’s oceans. This energy is eventually released into the earth system and the gravitational interactions can also act as a perturbation of the earth’s internal geothermal heat in the mantle (Voisin 2020). Various papers by Keeling and Whorf and a few other authors (see Bibiography below) propose a mechanism in which periodic resonance in the gravitational interaction among earth, moon, and sun explains the cycles of millennial scale warming and cooling events over the 12,000 years of the Holocene that are described in a related post [LINK] . In that context, it is proposed by authors of tidal cycle papers that a study of the current warming period since the Little Ice Age should not exclude a role for tidal cycles.
  4. We now present a recent Keeling and Whorf paper [LINK] in some detail. The citation and abstract of the paper are as follows: CITATION: The 1,800-year oceanic tidal cycle: A possible cause of rapid climate change, Charles D. Keeling, WTimothy P. Whorf, May 2000, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 97(8):3814-9, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.070047197, ABSTRACT: Variations in solar irradiance are widely believed to explain climatic change on 20,000- to 100,000-year time-scales in accordance with the Milankovitch theory of the ice ages, but there is no conclusive evidence that variable irradiance can be the cause of abrupt fluctuations in climate on time-scales as short as 1,000 years. We propose that such abrupt millennial changes, seen in ice and sedimentary core records, were produced in part by well characterized, almost periodic variations in the strength of the global oceanic tide-raising forces caused by resonances in the periodic motions of the earth and moon. A well defined 1,800-year tidal cycle is associated with gradually shifting lunar declination from one episode of maximum tidal forcing on the centennial time-scale to the next. An amplitude modulation of this cycle occurs with an average period of about 5,000 years, associated with gradually shifting separation-intervals between perihelion and syzygy at maxima of the 1,800-year cycle. We propose that strong tidal forcing causes cooling at the sea surface by increasing vertical mixing in the oceans. On the millennial time-scale, this tidal hypothesis is supported by findings, from sedimentary records of ice-rafting debris, that ocean waters cooled close to the times predicted for strong tidal forcing. High resolution ice-core and deep-sea sediment-core records over the past million years show evidence of abrupt changes in climate superimposed on slow alternations of ice-ages and interglacial warm periods. In general these abrupt changes are spaced irregularly, but a distinct subset of recurring cold periods, on the millennial time-scale, appears to be almost periodic. Such events, however, are not clearly apparent in ice-core data after the termination of the most recent glaciation, about eleven thousand years (11 kyr) BP (kyr before A.D. 2000). This absence of recent events has led to the hypothesis that their underlying cause is related to internal ice-sheet dynamics (ref. 1, p. 35). Interpretations of sediment-cores by Bond et al. (1, 2) indicate, however, that a 1- to 2-kyr periodicity persisted almost to the present, characterized by distinct cooling events, including the Little Ice Age that climaxed near A.D. 1600. Although evidence that cooling was more intense during glacial times may be explained by some aspect of ice-dynamics, a continuation of cooling events throughout the postglacial Holocene era suggests an alternative underlying mechanism.
  5. THE FULL TEXT OF THE KEELING AND WHORF 2000 PAPER: A Proposed Tidal Mechanism for Periodic Oceanic Cooling. In a previous study (3) we proposed a tidal mechanism to explain approximately 6- and 9-year oscillations in global surface temperature, discernable in meteorological and oceanographic observations. We first briefly restate this mechanism. The reader is referred to our earlier presentation for more details. We then invoke this mechanism in an attempt to explain millennial variations in temperature. We propose that variations in the strength of oceanic tides cause periodic cooling of surface ocean water by modulating the intensity of vertical mixing that brings to the surface colder water from below. The tides provide more than half of the total power for vertical mixing, 3.5 terawatts (4), compared with about 2.0 terawatts from wind drag (3), making this hypothesis plausible. Moreover, the tidal mixing process is strongly nonlinear, so that vertical mixing caused by tidal forcing must vary in intensity interannually even though the annual rate of power generation is constant (3). As a consequence, periodicities in strong forcing, that we will now characterize by identifying the peak forcing events of sequences of strong tides, may so strongly modulate vertical mixing and sea-surface temperature as to explain cyclical cooling even on the millennial time-scale. As a measure of the global tide raising forces (ref. 5, p. 201.33), we adopt the angular velocity, γ, of the moon with respect to perigee, in degrees of arc per day, computed from the known motions of the sun, moon, and earth. This angular velocity, for strong tidal events, from A.D. 1,600 to 2,140, is listed in a treatise by Wood (ref. 5, Table 16). We extended the calculation of γ back to the glacial age by a multiple regression analysis that related Wood’s values to four factors that determine the timing of strong tides: the periods of the three lunar months (the synodic, the anomalistic, and the nodical), and the anomalistic year, defined below. Our computations of γ first assume that all four of these periods are invariant, with values appropriate to the present epoch, as shown in Table 1. We later address secular variations. Although the assumption of invariance is a simplification of the true motions of the earth and moon, we have verified that this method of computing γ (see Table 2) produces values nearly identical to those listed by Wood, the most serious shortcoming being occasional shifts of 9 or 18 years in peak values of γ. A time-series plot of Wood’s values of γ (Fig. 1) reveals a complex cyclic pattern. On the decadal time-scale the most important periodicity is the Saros cycle, seen as sequences of events, spaced 18.03 years apart. Prominent sequences are made obvious in the plot by connected line-segments that form a series of overlapping arcs. The maxima, labeled A, B, C, D, of the most prominent sequences, all at full moon, are spaced about 180 years apart. The maxima, labeled a, b, c, of the next most prominent sequences, all at new moon, are also spaced about 180 years apart. The two sets of maxima together produce strong tidal forcing at approximately 90-year intervals.As an indication that tidal forcing might influence temperature, Keeling and Whorf (3) found that times of cool surface temperature, on pentadal to decadal time-scales, tended to occur at 9-year intervals near events b and C of Fig. 1: thus, at times of strong 18.03-year Saros cycle tidal events. They occurred, however, at 6-year intervals midway between events b and C, when the Saros cycle events were weak and 6-year tidal forcing was more prominent than 9-year forcing. They also noted a general tendency for interdecadal warming near 1930, when Saros cycle forcing was weak, and a lack of warming when this forcing was strong near 1880 and 1970, as though cooling near times of strong forcing lingered for several decades, despite the identified events being only single tides.
  6. THE 1,800-YEAR TIDAL CYCLE: When the time-interval of computed strong global tidal forcing is extended to include all events from 500 B.C. to A.D. 4000 (Fig. 2), two longer periodicities become evident, defined by extensions of the maxima, labeled A–D and a–c, as in Fig. 1. First, near the beginning and end of the 4,000 years plotted, every second 180-year maximum is stronger, producing a periodicity of about 360 years. More striking is a well defined millennial cycle with maxima at 398 B.C., A.D. 1425, and A.D. 3107. The latter maximum is almost matched in strength, however, by one in A.D. 3452 such that a lesser intermediate event in A.D. 3248 appears to define the repeat period of the cycle as 1,823 years. The actual maximum in A.D. 3107, however, would define an interval of only 1,682 years.The existence of tidal forcing at intervals of about 1,800 years was proposed by Otto Petersson in 1914 and 1930 [cited by Lamb (ref. 6, p. 220)]. Cartwright (7) identified events similar to those plotted in Fig. 2, consisting of strong tidal forcing 93 years apart from A.D. 1340 to 1619 and again from 3182 to 3461: thus, an average interval between clusters of 1,842 years. Keeling and Whorf (3) briefly discussed the astronomical basis for an 1,800-year tidal cycle. Computations of γ over many millennia show this 1,800-year cycle and demonstrate that the spacing of maximum events is irregular. As we will show next, the cycle is well defined, however, with an exact average period when computed for the present epoch. The greatest possible astronomical tide raising forces would occur if the moon and the sun were to come into exact mutual alignment with the earth at their closest respective distances (7). If we only consider motions as they exist today (the present epoch) we can determine departures from this reference event as simple functions of the separation-intervals between four orbital conditions that determine these alignments and distances. The most critical condition is closeness in time to syzygy, a term that refers to either new moon or full moon. The return period of either lunar phase defines the 29.5-day synodic month. Maxima in tidal strength occur at both new and full moon: i.e., “fortnightly.” The next most critical condition of tidal forcing is the closeness of the moon to perigee, the point of the moon’s elliptical orbit closest to the earth. The fortnightly tides vary in strength as a function of the time-separation of perigee and syzygy. The moon is at perigee on average once every 27.6-day anomalistic month. When it is close to both perigee and syzygy, perigean tides occur. For each moon, new or full, this happens on average every 411.78 days, the beat period of the synodic and anomalistic months. A third important condition is the closeness of the moon to a node, either of two points in its orbit that lie on the ecliptic, the plane of the earth’s orbit around the sun. The moon crosses the ecliptic twice every 27.2-day nodical month. Maxima in perigean tides occur when the moon is close to the ecliptic, as well as to perigee and syzygy. This happens, on average, every 2.99847 calendar years to create the perigean eclipse cycle, equal to twice the beat period of the nodical and anomalistic months. The 6-year and 9-year tidal events that tend to correlate with times of cool global temperatures (3) are synchronous with every second or third perigean eclipse cycle, respectively. A fourth condition necessary for determining maximal tidal forcing is the closeness of the earth to perihelion, the point on the earth’s elliptical orbit closest to the sun, occupied every anomalistic year of 365.2596 days. When an analysis is made to find the times when all four conditions are most closely met, the 1,800-year cycle becomes apparent as a slow progression of solar-lunar declinational differences that coincide with progressive weakening and then strengthening of successive centennial maxima in tidal forcing (Fig. 2). The 1,800-year cycle thus represents the time for the recurrence of perigean eclipses closely matched to the time of perihelion. Progressively less close matching of perigee, node, and perihelion with syzygy occur, on average, at intervals of 360, 180, 90, 18, and 9 years. The long term average period of the 1,800-year cycle can be computed from the circumstance that the period of the perigean eclipse cycle falls 0.610061 days short of 3 anomalistic years. Independent of the condition of syzygy, the long term period is 1795.26 years (2.99847 × 365.2596/0.610061), equal to the beat period of the anomalistic year with one-third of the period of the perigean eclipse cycle. The actual timing of specific maximum events of the 1,800-year cycle depends, however, also on the timing of syzygy. This additional requirement causes the intervals between specific maxima to occur at intervals of 1,682, 1,823, or 2,045 years, or even occasionally ± 18.03 years from these three principal intervals. (An example is the 1,682-year interval from A.D. 1425 to 3107, noted above.) The maxima of the centennial cycles are also irregular. The 360-year cycle has principal intervals of 345, 363, and 407 years, plus occasionally others. The 180-year cycle has a wide range of intervals, in 9-year increments, from 141 to 204 years. The 90-year tidal interval can be either 84 or 93 years.
  7. A 5,000-YEAR MODULATION of the 1,800-YEAR CYCLE . A further millennial cycle arises from variability in the strengths of the maxima of the 1,800-year cycle. In the lowest plot of Fig. 3 is shown a hypothetical sequence of tidal events assuming, as a starting point, zero separation-intervals of syzygy from perigee, lunar node, and perihelion. The calculations assume that the lunar months and anomalistic year have constant periods appropriate to the present epoch. The γ value of all tidal events above a threshold of 17.150° per day are plotted. Every second or third 1,800-year maximum in γ is seen to be more prominent. The cause of this pattern can be understood by viewing the top plot of Fig. 3, which shows the separation-interval of syzygy from perihelion, in days, for all tidal events in the 360-year centennial cycle. This time-difference describes a pattern consisting of a generally declining difference interrupted by an abrupt upward shift that occurs 61 times in a simulation of 283,674 kyr (not all plotted): hence, an average period of 4,650 years. Shown in the middle plot of Fig. 3 is the departure, in arc degrees, of the moon from the plane of the ecliptic for the same events as shown in the upper plot. This angular difference describes a similar pattern to that of the upper plot, but with the average period of the 1,800-year cycle. The separation-interval of syzygy from perigee (not shown) remains small (less than 2 hr) for all of the maximum millennial events shown in Fig. 3. Thus, the 1,800-year cycle arises from progressive mismatches of syzygy and lunar node, the 4,650-year cycle from progressive mismatches of syzygy and perihelion. These two cycles are incommensurate even though both are expressed by recurring maxima of the 1,800-year cycle.
  8. Observational Tests of Millennial Tidal Climatic Forcing. Time-series of ice-rafted debris (IRD) from sedimentary cores in the North Atlantic ocean (1, 2), and associated temperature proxy data, show evidence of repeated rapid cooling events in the Northern Hemisphere, as summarized in “The 1- to 2-kyr IRD Cycle” section above. We now show, from results of both spectral analysis and direct comparisons of events, that strong oceanic tidal forcing may have occurred in association with IRD events. Spectral analysis of the IRD records, from 1- to 31-kyr BP, reproduced in Fig. 4 from Bond et al. (2), show broad peaks centered at 1,800 and 4,670 years (Fig. 4A), in contrast to an average pacing between IRD events of 1,470 ± 532 years. The peak periods agree closely with the 1,800-year and 5,000-year tidal cycle periods, shown by added vertical red lines. Bond et al. (2) also determined the phasing of the 1,800-year IRD band by filtering their data with a bandpass centered at 1,800 years (Fig. 4B). Cold periods, indicated by high filter values, nearly coincide with 1,800-year tidal events, shown by added horizontal red lines. A possible explanation for the disparity between the pacing of about 1,500 years, and the spectral period of about 1,800 years in the IRD data, is provided in Fig. 5 by a direct comparison of IRD cold events (dashed black lines) with times of strong tidal forcing (solid red lines). Between 0.6 and 31.2 kyr BP, 18 IRD events collectively exhibit an average spacing of 1,800 years while 4 others (“7”, “YD,” and one each near 14 kyr BP and 1.4 kyr BP) are spaced nearly midway between events of the first subset, 3 of these in a cluster near 12 kyr BP. The resulting bimodal pacing accounts for finding a broad spectral peak near 1,800 years, despite an average pacing of 1,470 years. Furthermore, the 1,800-year spectral peak is again found when the IRD record is extended back to 80 kyr BP (ref. 1, Fig. 8), with similar phasing of the associated bandpass. Additional clusters of events with about half the pacing of the majority again suggests a bimodal distribution in pacing.
  9. CONCLUSION OF THE KEELING AND WHORF PAPER: The details of the tidal hypothesis are complex. There is much about tidal forcing that we do not know, and there is not space here to discuss all that we do know that could contribute to proving whether it is the underlying cause of some, or all, of the events of rapid climate change. We are convinced, however, that, if the hypothesis is to a considerable degree valid, the consequences to our understanding of the ice-ages, and of possible future climates, are far from trivial. Should the tidal hypothesis of quasi-periodic cooling of the oceans turn out to be correct, a prevailing view that the earth’s postglacial climate responds mainly to random and unpredictable processes would be modified or abandoned. The 1,800-year tidal cycle would be recognized as a principal driver of climate change in the Holocene, causing shifts in climate more prominent and extensive than hitherto realized. The Little Ice Age would be seen to be only a lesser cooling episode in a series of such episodes. Viewed today as of “possibly global significance” (14), it would probably be confirmed as such, being linked to global tidal forcing. Other major climatic events since the glacial period, such as drought near the time of collapse of the Akkadian empire, might also be found to be linked to a global process.Looking ahead, a prediction of “pronounced global warming” over the next few decades by Broecker (15), presumed to be triggered by the warm phase of an 80-year climatic cycle of unidentified origin, would be reinterpreted as the continuation of natural warming in roughly centennial increments that began at the end of the Little Ice Age, and will continue in spurts for several hundred years. Even without further warming brought about by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, this natural warming at its greatest intensity would be expected to exceed any that has occurred since the first millennium of the Christian era, as the 1,800-year tidal cycle progresses from climactic cooling during the 15th century to the next such episode in the 32nd century.

WHORF2

[LINK TO FULL TEXT OF THE KEELING AND WHORF PAPER]

QUESTION: IS THIS THE SAME KEELING AS IN THE KEELING CURVE THAT AGW CLIMATE SCIENCE IS BUILT ON? ANSWER: YES

THE LATE GREAT KEELING AND THE LATE GREAT WHORF WERE CLIMATE DENIERS BECAUSE THEY HAD WRITTEN THAT WHILE AGW CLIMATE CHANGE EXPLAINS ONLY THE POST LIA WARMING, TIDAL CYCLES EXPLAIN ALL THE WARMING AND COOLING CYCLES OF THE HOLOCENE DESCRIBED IN A RELATED POST [LINK]   

Schematic chart about the spring-neap tidal variation in a lunar ...

TIDAL CYCLES  AND CLIMATE CHANGE BIBLIOGRAPHY

  1. 2020: Ronald Voisin, An Engineer’s Theory of Climate Change, [PDF DOWNLOAD]ABSTRACT: General Circulation Models of the climate have been developed by several countries of the world. These enormously expensive endeavors are alleged to include every imaginable climate forcing function. The authors of the Models assume that the Sun is the sole energy provider to the Earth climate system. And while the exothermic nature of the Earth is well recognized, it is further assumed that Earth’s internal heat generation is both temporally and spatially averaged to an inconsequentially small level, so as to be appropriately disregarded as a climatic issue. This misstep has led to the “CO2 is the climate control knob” meme. This essay re-asserts that constructive interference of gravitationally induced resonant modulations to the surface release of Earth’s internal heat generation are, in fact, the climate control knob on many, if not all, time scales. This essay further points to new Modeling directions that might more readily predict future climate events than current efforts are capable. IntroductionBroadly speaking, Earth’s climate alternates between two different states. One recurring state is commonly known as an Interglacial. It might well be considered a solar-albedo high-temperature latch. The Earth has been in this state for the last 11.5ky or so and this current interglacial is commonly known as the Holocene. These interglacials are relatively short lived periods characterized by relatively high solar absorption. Intrinsically these higher temperature periods are lower in entropy and therefore more difficult to achieve and sustain. But the relatively high solar absorption does, in fact, create a “latch” to this state, such that it should not be easily changed. The other recurring state is commonly known as glaciation. These relatively longer periods are characterized by relatively low solar absorption. Here too the relatively low solar absorption creates a “latch” such that this state should not be easily changed either. The causations to force transitions between these two “latched” states are of great interest. The down-temperature transition from interglacial to glaciation is lengthy and characterized by stair-stepping of a few degrees each step. This behavior is very difficult to explain in solar-radiative terms. However, the up-temperature transitions from glaciation to an interglacial are truly remarkable. These transitions are commonly known as de-glaciations (or glacial terminations) and they occur fantastically quickly in geologic terms. And as they occur, large solar-radiative forcing has to be overcome. To date, attempted explanations for these transitions have been almost entirely pursued in the solar- radiative domain only. This direction seems an impossible task. A new and very powerful climate driver is re-introduced herein called bulk-Earth-resonance. And this climate theory not only explains climate change on centennial and much longer time scales, but also on the most politically relevant decadal and annual time scales.
  2. 1989: Kvale, Erik P., Allen W. Archer, and Hollis R. Johnson. “Daily, monthly, and yearly tidal cycles within laminated siltstones of the Mansfield Formation (Pennsylvanian) of Indiana.” Geology17.4 (1989): 365-368. Whetstones (laminated siltstones) within the Mansfield Formation of Orange County, Indiana, are Lower Pennsylvanian (Morrowan) tidal deposits characterized by rhythmic laminations. Laminae thicknesses vary systematically in a vertical sequence and reflect tidal events of a mixed tidal regime. So complete is the record of tidal deposition that daily and monthly tidal cycles can be delineated. Neap-spring tides (related to the phases of the moon) and equatorial-tropical tides (related to the declination of the moon) are recognizable within the sequence.
  3. 1997: Keeling, Charles D., and Timothy P. Whorf. “Possible forcing of global temperature by the oceanic tides.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 94.16 (1997): 8321-8328. An approximately decadal periodicity in surface air temperature is discernable in global observations from A.D. 1855 to 1900 and since A.D. 1945, but with a periodicity of only about 6 years during the intervening period. Changes in solar irradiance related to the sunspot cycle have been proposed to account for the former, but cannot account for the latter. To explain both by a single mechanism, we propose that extreme oceanic tides may produce changes in sea surface temperature at repeat periods, which alternate between approximately one-third and one-half of the lunar nodal cycle of 18.6 years. These alternations, recurring at nearly 90-year intervals, reflect varying slight degrees of misalignment and departures from the closest approach of the Earth with the Moon and Sun at times of extreme tide raising forces. Strong forcing, consistent with observed temperature periodicities, occurred at 9-year intervals close to perihelion (solar perigee) for several decades centered on A.D. 1881 and 1974, but at 6-year intervals for several decades centered on A.D. 1923. As a physical explanation for tidal forcing of temperature we propose that the dissipation of extreme tides increases vertical mixing of sea water, thereby causing episodic cooling near the sea surface. If this mechanism correctly explains near-decadal temperature periodicities, it may also apply to variability in temperature and climate on other times-scales, even millennial and longer.
  4. 1999: Clark, Peter U., Robert S. Webb, and Lloyd D. Keigwin. Mechanisms of global climate change at millennial time scales. American geophysical union, 1999. Contributors describe the current understanding of abrupt climate variations that have occurred at millennial to submillennial time scales, events now recognized as characteristics of the global climate during the last glaciation. Subjects covered include analysis of modern climate and ocean dynamics, paleoclimate reconstructions derived from the marine, terrestrial and ice core records, and paleoclimate modeling studies. The breadth of global paleoclimate knowledge presented here provides information required to answer manypertinent questions related to climate change.
  5. 2000: Keeling, Charles D., and Timothy P. Whorf. “The 1,800-year oceanic tidal cycle: A possible cause of rapid climate change.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 97.8 (2000): 3814-3819. Variations in solar irradiance are widely believed to explain climatic change on 20,000- to 100,000-year time-scales in accordance with the Milankovitch theory of the ice ages, but there is no conclusive evidence that variable irradiance can be the cause of abrupt fluctuations in climate on time-scales as short as 1,000 years. We propose that such abrupt millennial changes, seen in ice and sedimentary core records, were produced in part by well characterized, almost periodic variations in the strength of the global oceanic tide-raising forces caused by resonances in the periodic motions of the earth and moon. A well defined 1,800-year tidal cycle is associated with gradually shifting lunar declination from one episode of maximum tidal forcing on the centennial time-scale to the next. An amplitude modulation of this cycle occurs with an average period of about 5,000 years, associated with gradually shifting separation-intervals between perihelion and syzygy at maxima of the 1,800-year cycle. We propose that strong tidal forcing causes cooling at the sea surface by increasing vertical mixing in the oceans. On the millennial time-scale, this tidal hypothesis is supported by findings, from sedimentary records of ice-rafting debris, that ocean waters cooled close to the times predicted for strong tidal forcing.
  6. 2001: Cerveny, Randall S., and John A. Shaffer. “The moon and El Nino.” Geophysical research letters 28.1 (2001): 25-28. Regional climates around the world display cycles corresponding to the 18.61‐year maximum lunar declination (MLD) periodicity. We suggest that these cycles are created by a relationship between MLD and El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Both equatorial Pacific sea‐surface temperature and South Pacific atmospheric pressure significantly correlate with maximum lunar declination. Low MLDs are associated with warmer equatorial Pacific sea‐surface temperatures and negative values of the Southern Oscillation Index. A lunar‐influenced change in the Pacific gyre circulation presents a viable physical mechanism for explaining these relationships. We suggest that the gyre is enhanced by tidal forces under high MLDs, inducing cold‐water advection into the equatorial region but is restricted by the weak tidal forcing of low MLDs thereby favoring El Niño episodes. An astronomical model utilizing this relationship produces a forecast of increased non‐El Niño (either La Niña or neutral) activity for the early part of this decade.
  7. 2002: Munk, Walter, Matthew Dzieciuch, and Steven Jayne. “Millennial climate variability: Is there a tidal connection?.” Journal of climate 15.4 (2002): 370-385.Orbital forcing has long been the subject of two quite separate communities: the tide community is concerned with the relatively rapid gravitational forces (periods up to 18.6 yr) and the climate community with the long-period Milankovitch insolation terms (exceeding 20 000 yr). The wide gap notwithstanding, the two subjects have much in common. Keeling and Whorf have proposed that the millennial climate variability is associated with high-frequency tidal forcing extending into the 10-octave gap by some nonlinear process. Here, the authors distinguish between two quite distinct processes for generating low frequencies: (i) the “traditional” analogy with eclipse cycles associated with near coincidence of the appropriate orbital alignment of the Sun, the Moon, and Earth, and (ii) sum and differences of tidal frequencies and their harmonics producing low beat frequencies. The first process is associated with long time intervals between extreme tides, but the events are of short duration and only marginally higher than conventional high tides. With proper nonlinearities, (ii) can lead to low-frequency tidal forcing. A few candidate frequencies in the centurial and millennial band are found, which prominently include the Keeling and Whorf forcing at 1795 yr. This is confirmed by a numerical experiment with a computer-generated tidal time series of 275 000 yr. Tidal forcing is very weak and an unlikely candidate for millennial variability; the Keeling and Whorf proposal is considered as the most likely among unlikely candidates. Corresponding author address: Prof. Walter Munk, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego
  8. 2002: Treloar, Norman C. “Luni‐solar tidal influences on climate variability.” International Journal of Climatology 22.12 (2002): 1527-1542. A possible exogenous cause of some terrestrial climate variability on time scales of 1 to 100 years is examined. Luni‐solar effects, and especially the coincidences of New Moon with small perigee distance, produce important tidal perturbations. These influences have been resolved in two orthogonal directions, and the variability in the southern oscillation and sea‐surface temperature anomalies may be at least partly understandable as a reflection of these tidal components. The correlation between tidal components and these climate factors is significant. The predictability of tidal effects may make a contribution to improving the accuracy and lead time of climate forecasting. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society.
  9. 2002: Helmuth, Brian, et al. “Climate change and latitudinal patterns of intertidal thermal stress.” Science 298.5595 (2002): 1015-1017. The interaction of climate and the timing of low tides along the West Coast of the United States creates a complex mosaic of thermal environments, in which northern sites can be more thermally stressful than southern sites. Thus, climate change may not lead to a poleward shift in the distribution of intertidal organisms, as has been proposed, but instead will likely cause localized extinctions at a series of “hot spots.” Patterns of exposure to extreme climatic conditions are temporally variable, and tidal predictions suggest that in the next 3 to 5 years “hot spots” are likely to appear at several northern sites.
  10. 2003: Yndestad, Harald. “A lunar-nodal spectrum in Arctic time series.” ICES CM (2003). Spectral analysis shows that long time series of Arctic sea ice extent, te Kola temperature, and the NAO winter index show the signature of the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle.
  11. 2004: Yndestad, Harald. “The lunar nodal cycle influence on the Barents Sea.” (2004). The Barents Sea contains one of the most productive marine areas in the world. For centuries, Northeast Arctic cod and Norwegian spring spawning herring have been of vital importance for the Norwegian fish export industry and hence economic growth in Norway. It has been common knowledge that the biomass of different Barents Sea species experiences both shortand long-term fluctuations. These fluctuations have been explained by changes in herring cycles and cod cycles, or by the introduction of new fishing equipment, and more. Norwegian marine research began in earnest at the beginning of the 19th century. The main task for researchers was to discover how nature influenced cod stocks and the effects these fluctuations had on the lives of people who depended on fishing for a living. Nearly 100 years later, scientists still disagree over the causes for the biomass fluctuations in the Barents Sea. At the same time, marine research has produced long time series, which can now be analyzed using new methods. This thesis represents an investigation of a number of long time series of Arctic climate indicators and biomasses in the Barents Sea. The purpose of this analysis has been to identify a potential stationary cycle in the biomasses. A stationary cycle in the biomass allows for expanded possibilities for better long-term biomass forecasting. The methods are based on general systems theory, analysis of systems dynamics and a wavelet analysis of time series. The wavelet analysis has identified the cycle time and the cycle phase of the dominant cycles in the time series. The phase-relation between the identified cycles contains information abort the dynamic chain of events between climate indicators and the biomasses in the Barents Sea. The investigation has identified harmonic and sub-harmonic cycles of the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle in all analyzed time series. The identified lunar nodal spectrum is explained by a gravity force from the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle as the First Cause. The energy from the 18.6-year gravity force from the moon introduces a chain of oscillating events. The oscillating gravity introduces a lunar nodal spectrum in the lunar nodal tide and the polar position. A wavelet analysis of time series indicates that movement of the polar position introduces a new lunar nodal spectrum of circulating water in the Arctic Ocean. This circulation water interacts with the 18.6-year lunar nodal tide in the Atlantic Ocean and introduces an oscillation in the extent of Arctic ice, and an oscillation in the inflow of the Atlantic Ocean to the Barents Sea. The lunar nodal spectrum of Atlantic inflow introduces a lunar nodal spectrum in the Barents Sea ecology system. Analysis of the biomass in the Barents Sea shows that long-term growth, reduction and collapse are associated with the phase-relation between the biomass eigen dynamics and the lunar nodal spectrum of Atlantic inflow.
  12. 2006: Yasuda, Ichiro, Satoshi Osafune, and Hiroaki Tatebe. “Possible explanation linking 18.6‐year period nodal tidal cycle with bi‐decadal variations of ocean and climate in the North Pacific.” Geophysical Research Letters 33.8 (2006). Bi‐decadal climate variation is dominant over the North Pacific on inter‐decadal timescale; however the mechanism has not been fully understood. We here find that the bi‐decadal variations in the North Pacific climate and intermediate waters possibly relate to the 18.6‐year period modulation of diurnal tide. In the period of strong diurnal tide, tide‐induced diapycnal mixing makes surface salinity and density higher and the upper‐layer shallower along the Kuril Islands and the east coast of Japan. Simple model results suggest that the coastal depth adjustment by baroclinic Kelvin waves enhances the thermohaline circulation, the upper‐layer poleward western boundary current and associated heat transport by about 0.05PW. This could also explain the warmer SST in the Kuroshio‐Oyashio Extension regions, where positive feedback with Aleutian Low might amplify the bidecadal variations. The 18.6‐year tidal cycle hence could play a role as a basic forcing for the bi‐decadal ocean and climate variations.
  13. 2006: Yndestad, Harald. “The influence of the lunar nodal cycle on Arctic climate.” ICES Journal of Marine Science 63.3 (2006): 401-420. The Arctic Ocean is a substantial energy sink for the northern hemisphere. Fluctuations in its energy budget will have a major influence on the Arctic climate. The paper presents an analysis of the time-series for the polar position, the extent of Arctic ice, sea level at Hammerfest, Kola section sea temperature, Røst winter air temperature, and the NAO winter index as a way to identify a source of dominant cycles. The investigation uses wavelet transformation to identify the period and the phase in these Arctic time-series. System dynamics are identified by studying the phase relationship between the dominant cycles in all time-series. A harmonic spectrum from the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle in the Arctic time-series has been identified. The cycles in this harmonic spectrum have a stationary period, but not stationary amplitude and phase. A sub-harmonic cycle of about 74 years may introduce a phase reversal of the 18.6-year cycle. The signal-to-noise ratio between the lunar nodal spectrum and other sources changes from 1.6 to 3.2. A lunar nodal cycle in all time-series indicates that there is a forced Arctic oscillating system controlled by the pull of gravity from the moon, a system that influences long-term fluctuations in the extent of Arctic ice. The phase relation between the identified cycles indicates a possible chain of events from lunar nodal gravity cycles, to long-term tides, polar motions, Arctic ice extent, the NAO winter index, weather, and climate.
  14. 2006: Osafune, S., and I. Yasuda. “Bidecadal variability in the intermediate waters of the northwestern subarctic Pacific and the Okhotsk Sea in relation to 18.6‐year period nodal tidal cycle.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 111.C5 (2006). On the basis of historical oceanographic data, we investigated the long‐term variations of the intermediate waters in the four regions in the northwestern subarctic Pacific: Oyashio, Okhotsk Sea Mode Water, Upstream Oyashio and East Kamchatka Current. We found bidecadal oscillations in these water properties that are synchronized with the 18.6‐year period nodal cycle. In periods when the diurnal tide is strong, the following characteristics are found: Apparent oxygen utilization and phosphate are low in Oyashio and Okhotsk Sea Mode Water. The thickness of the intermediate layers is large, and thus potential vorticity is correspondingly low, in Oyashio, Okhotsk Sea Mode Water, and Upstream Oyashio. Around the mesothermal (temperature maximum) water, isopycnal potential temperature are low in the areas on the Pacific side, and high in the intermediate layer of Okhotsk Sea Mode Water. The mixing ratio of Okhotsk Sea Mode Water in the Upstream Oyashio water is high. These bidecadal oscillations can be explained by changes in the vertical mixing around the Kuril Straits induced by the diurnal tide whose amplitude is modulated with the 18.6‐year nodal cycle. Higher sea surface salinity water around the Kuril Straits caused by stronger tidal mixing is possibly transported northward along the cyclonic Okhotsk Sea Gyre, and possibly enhances the formation of the dense shelf water. This makes apparent oxygen utilization, phosphate, and potential vorticity lower in Okhotsk Sea Mode Water and Oyashio.
  15. 2007: Yndestad, Harald. “The Arctic Ocean as a coupled oscillating system to the forced 18.6 year lunar gravity cycle.” Nonlinear Dynamics in Geosciences. Springer, New York, NY, 2007. 281-290. The Arctic Ocean is a substantial energy sink for the Earth’s Northern Hemisphere. Future fluctuations in its energy budget will have a major influence on the Arctic climate. A wavelet spectrum analysis of an extensive historical Arctic data series concludes that we may be able to understand Arctic climate dynamics as an oscillation system coupled to the forced 18.6 yr lunar nodal gravity cycle. This paper presents the results from a wavelet spectrum analysis of the data series which included polar movement, Arctic ice extent and the inflow of North Atlantic Water to the Norwegian Sea. The investigation shows a correlation better than R = 0.6 between the astronomic 18.6 yr lunar nodal gravity cycle and identified 18 yr dominant cycles in the data series. The identified 18 yr cycles have phase – reversals synchronized to a 74 yr sub – harmonic lunar nodal cycle.
  16. 2007: McKinnell, Stewart M., and William R. Crawford. “The 18.6‐year lunar nodal cycle and surface temperature variability in the northeast Pacific.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 112.C2 (2007). The 18.6‐year lunar nodal cycle (LNC) is a significant feature of winter (January) air and sea temperatures along the North American west coast over a 400‐year period. Yet much of the recent temperature variation can also be explained by wind patterns associated with the PNA teleconnection. At Sitka, Alaska, (57°N) and nearby stations in northern British Columbia, the January PNA index accounts for over 70% of average January air temperatures in lengthy meteorological records. It appears that the LNC signal in January air temperatures in this region is not independent of the PNA, but is a component of it. The Sitka air temperature record, along with SSTs along the British Columbia coast and the PNA index have significant cross‐correlations with the LNC that appear at a 2‐year lag, LNC leading. The influence of the PNA pattern declines in winter with decreasing latitude but the LNC component does not. It appears as a significant feature of long‐term SST variation at Scripps Pier and the California Current System. The LNC also appears over centennial‐scales in proxy temperatures along western North America. The linkage of LNC‐moderated surface temperatures to processes involving basin‐scale teleconnections expands the possibility that the proximate mechanism may be located remotely from its expression in the northeast Pacific. Some of the largest potential sources of a diurnal tidal signal in the atmosphere are located in the western Pacific; the Sea of Okhotsk and the Indonesian archipelago.
  17. 2008: Yndestad, Harald, William R. Turrell, and Vladimir Ozhigin. “Lunar nodal tide effects on variability of sea level, temperature, and salinity in the Faroe-Shetland Channel and the Barents Sea.” Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers 55.10 (2008): 1201-1217. The Faroe-Shetland Channel and the Kola Section hydrographic time-series cover a time period of more than 100 years and represent two of the longest oceanographic time-series in the world. Relationships between the temperature and salinity of Atlantic water from these two areas are examined in this paper, which also presents for the first time comparisons between them and annual mean sea levels in the region. The investigation was based on a wavelet spectrum analysis used to identify the dominant cycle periods and cycle phases in all time-series. The water-property time-series show mean variability correlated to a sub-harmonic cycle of the nodal tide of about 74 years, with an advective delay between the Faroe-Shetland Channel and the Barents Sea of about 2 years. In addition, correlations better than R=0.7 were found between dominant Atlantic water temperature cycles and the 18.6-year lunar nodal tide, and better than R=0.4 for the 18.6/2=9.3-year lunar nodal phase tide. The correlation between the lunar nodal tides and the ocean temperature variability suggests that deterministic lunar nodal tides are important regional climate indicators that should be included when future regional climate variability is considered. The present analysis suggests that Atlantic water temperature and salinity fluctuations in the Nordic Seas are influenced by forced tidal mixing modulated by harmonics of the nodal tide and influencing the water mass characteristics at some point “down stream” from the Faroe-Shetland Channel. The effects of the modulated oceanic mixing are subsequently distributed as complex coupled lunar nodal sub-harmonic spectra in the thermohaline circulation.
  18. 2008: Hasumi, Hiroyasu, et al. “Pacific bidecadal climate variability regulated by tidal mixing around the Kuril Islands.” Geophysical Research Letters 35.14 (2008). 18.6‐year period variability has been detected in various aspects of the climate, especially in and around the Pacific Ocean. Although it is believed to be caused by 18.6‐year period tidal cycle, no study has directly shown how the tidal cycle regulates such variability. Using a state‐of‐the‐art climate model, we show that the 18.6‐year cycle in strong tidal mixing localized around the Kuril Islands induces 18.6‐year periodicity in El Nino‐Southern Oscillation‐like Pacific climate variability. Influence of the tidal mixing propagates along the Pacific western rim as coastally trapped waves. Temperature anomaly is generated in the subsurface western equatorial Pacific, which propagates along the equatorial thermocline and eventually excites 18.6‐year periodicity in the equatorial sea surface temperature.
  19. 2009: Yndestad, Harald. “The influence of long tides on ecosystem dynamics in the Barents Sea.” Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography 56.21-22 (2009): 2108-2116. The Barents Sea ecosystem has been associated with large biomass fluctuations. If there is a hidden deterministic process behind the Barents Sea ecosystem, we may forecast the biomass in order to control it. This presentation concludes, for the first time, investigations of a long data series from North Atlantic water and the Barents Sea ecosystem. The analysis is based on a wavelet spectrum analysis from the data series of annual mean Atlantic sea level, North Atlantic water temperature, the Kola section water temperature, and species from the Barents Sea ecosystem. The investigation has identified dominant fluctuations correlated with the 9.3-yr phase tide, the 18.6-yr amplitude tide, and a 74-yr superharmonic cycle in the North Atlantic water, Barents Sea water, and Arctic data series. The correlation between the tidal cycles and dominant Barents Sea ecosystem cycles is estimated to be R=0.6 or better. The long-term mean fluctuations correlate with the 74-yr superharmonic cycle. The wavelets analysis shows that the long-term 74-yr cycle may introduce a phase reversal in the identified 18-yr periods of temperature and salinity. The present analysis suggests that forced vertical and horizontal nodal tides influence the ocean’s thermohaline circulation, and that they behave as a coupled non-linear oscillation system. The Barents Sea ecosystem analysis shows that the biomass life cycle and the long-term fluctuations correlate better than R=0.5 to the lunar nodal tide spectrum. Barents Sea capelin has a life cycle related to a third harmonic of the 9.3-yr tide. The life cycles of shrimp, cod, herring, and haddock are related to a third harmonic of the 18.6-yr tide. Biomass growth was synchronized to the lunar nodal tide. The biomass growth of zooplankton and shrimp correlates with the current aspect of lunar nodal tidal inflow to the Barents Sea. The long-term biomass fluctuation of cod and herring is correlated with a cycle period of about 3×18.6=55.8 yr. This analysis suggests that we may understand the Barents Sea ecosystem dynamic as a free-coupled oscillating system to the forced lunar nodal tides. This free-coupled oscillating system has a resonance related to the oscillating long tides and the third harmonic and superharmonic cycles.
  20. 2009: Yasuda, Ichiro. “The 18.6‐year period moon‐tidal cycle in Pacific Decadal Oscillation reconstructed from tree‐rings in western North America.” Geophysical Research Letters 36.5 (2009). Time‐series of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) reconstructed from tree‐rings in Western North America is found to have a statistically significant periodicity of 18.6‐year period lunar nodal tidal cycle; negative (positive) PDO tends to occur in the period of strong (weak) diurnal tide. In the 3rd and 5th (10th, 11th and 13rd) year after the maximum diurnal tide, mean‐PDO takes significant negative (positive) value, suggesting that the Aleutian Low is weak (strong), western‐central North Pacific in 30–50°N is warm (cool) and equator‐eastern rim of the Pacific is cool (warm). This contributes to climate predictability with a time‐table from the astronomical tidal cycle.
  21. 2010: Osafune, S., and I. Yasuda. “Bidecadal variability in the Bering Sea and the relation with 18.6 year period nodal tidal cycle.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 115.C2 (2010). Bidecadal variations are investigated in the Bering Sea, especially in the southeastern basin adjacent to the Aleutian passes, where vertical mixing may be strong because of the diurnal tide. Those variations found in this region are synchronized with the 18.6 year period nodal tidal cycle, and the temporal patterns are similar to ones around the northwestern subarctic Pacific near the Kuril Straits reported by a previous study. Salinity and density in the upper layer are high in the periods when the diurnal tide is strong. In the intermediate layer, layer thickness is large, and isopycnal potential temperature and apparent oxygen utilization are low in the same periods. It is shown that these variations are consistent with the patterns expected from the nodal modulation of vertical mixing, and a simple two‐dimensional model, assuming a balance between anomalous vertical mixing and advection of anomaly by the mean current, succeeds to some extent in explaining the variations of the upper layer salinity and isopycnal temperature and apparent oxygen utilization in the intermediate layer.
  22. 2012: Tanaka, Yuki, et al. “Effects of the 18.6-yr modulation of tidal mixing on the North Pacific bidecadal climate variability in a coupled climate model.” Journal of Climate 25.21 (2012): 7625-7642. Diapycnal mixing induced by tide–topography interaction, one of the essential factors maintaining the global ocean circulation and hence the global climate, is modulated by the 18.6-yr period oscillation of the lunar orbital inclination, and has therefore been hypothesized to influence bidecadal climate variability. In this study, the spatial distribution of diapycnal diffusivity together with its 18.6-yr oscillation estimated from a global tide model is incorporated into a state-of-the-art numerical coupled climate model to investigate its effects on climate variability over the North Pacific and to understand the underlying physical mechanism. It is shown that a significant sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly with a period of 18.6 years appears in the Kuroshio–Oyashio Extension region; a positive (negative) SST anomaly tends to occur during strong (weak) tidal mixing. This is first induced by anomalous horizontal circulation localized around the Kuril Straits, where enhanced modulation of tidal mixing exists, and then amplified through a positive feedback due to midlatitude air–sea interactions. The resulting SST and sea level pressure variability patterns are reminiscent of those associated with one of the most prominent modes of climate variability in the North Pacific known as the Pacific decadal oscillation, suggesting the potential for improving climate predictability by taking into account the 18.6-yr modulation of tidal mixing.

 

NEWJANJULTABLE

AUG2DEC-TABLE

SEAICE-DECLINING-TRENDS

RELATED POSTANTARCTIC SEA ICE 1979-2018

RELATED POST: GEOLOGICAL FEATURES OF THE ARCTIC

RELATED POSTARCTIC SEA ICE BIBLIOGRAPHY

RELATED POSTTIDAL CYCLES BIBLIOGRAPHY

 

ABSTRACT: Satellite radiometry and visual imagery of Arctic sea ice since 1979 have allowed us to track its dramatic seasonal cycle in which 70% of the March maximum sea ice area is gone by September. This extreme seasonal cycle is taken to imply that Arctic sea ice area is sensitive to ambient temperature. The satellite data also show a long term year to year decline in Arctic sea ice in every season concurrent with global warming. This concurrence has led to the assumption that the observed long term decline in sea ice is a response to global warming. This study is a test of that hypothesis. Arctic sea ice data for each calendar month are tested for the responsiveness of sea ice area to global warming at annual and five-year time scales using detrended correlation analysis. Satellite measurements of lower troposphere temperature over the north polar region are used as the relevant measure of global warming. It is found that of the twelve calendar months only two contain both statistically significant sea ice loss and statistically significant correlation of the rate of sea ice loss with global warming. These results do not constitute convincing evidence of correlation required to support the assumption that sea ice decline is driven by global warming.

It is likely that the observed loss in sea ice area is a more complex phenomenon possibly with roles for winds, ocean currents, geothermal heat, and natural multi-decadal variability of lunar nodal cycles and other ocean characteristics not measured and not fully understood. Global warming may play a role in what may be a complex multivariate phenomenon but the data do not show that global warming drives year to year changes in Arctic sea ice area or that the decline can be halted or moderated by taking climate action.

A map of undersea geological activity in the Arctic shown below was provided by geologist James Edward Kamis in a blog about the Arctic Ocean [LINK] . In the map, red triangles with black outline are locations of active submarine volcanoes and areas marked with red cross hatching indicate mantle plumes (rocks being pushed out of the earth’s mantle that often melt when they reach lower pressure areas). These geological features imply that geothermal activity is extensive in the Arctic and that they may well play a role in sea ice dynamics. These effects are not considered in the standard climate change interpretation of changes in Arctic sea ice.

ArcticGeothermals

 

  1. Arctic sea ice area undergoes an intense seasonal cycle reaching a winter maximum extent of 13 million square kilometers (MSK) in March and a summer minimum of 4 MSK in September on average in the study period 1979-2017/8. The seasonal cycle in sea ice area is synchronized with the seasonal cycle in air temperature in an almost perfect inverse relationship. This correlation is generally accepted as sufficient evidence that sea ice is responsive to air temperature – melting in the warmth of summer and freezing in the cold of winter (Serreze, 2011). The observed seasonal relationship is the basis for the assumption that the observed decline in Arctic sea ice area since satellite measurements began in 1979 is attributable to anthropogenic global warming (AGW), and that it could accelerate AGW due to a loss of albedo if the Arctic becomes ice free (Perovich, 2007) for a number of summer months (Cavalieri, 2012) (Comiso, 2002) (Comiso, 2008) (IPCC, 2014) (Parkinson, 2002) (Serreze, 2007) (Winton, 2006). These concerns have specific application in the September minimum sea ice area in the Arctic where the lowest extents observed have occurred in the most recent decade (Liu, 2013) (Overpeck, 2005) (Winton, 2006).
  2. This study is a statistical test of the hypothesis that global warming explains changes in Arctic sea ice area at annual or 5-year time scales. It was carried out as soon as the July 2018 data for Arctic sea ice area and satellite based measurements of lower tropospheric temperature in the North Polar region became available. Both Arctic and Antarctic sea ice areas are studied. The annual time series of mean monthly sea ice area are studied for each calendar month separately. Unusually low September minimum sea ice area in the Arctic in 2007, 2012, and 2016 created a great interest in the study of sea ice (NSIDC, 2016) (NASA, 2016) (Vidal, 2016). The year 2016 is also considered notable for its low sea ice area in the winter maximum month of March (NASA, 2016) and it re-kindled the alarming prospect of an ice-free Arctic in summer both as a sign of dangerous climate change and also as a positive feedback that could accelerate climate change (Liu, 2013) (Overpeck, 2005) (Winton, 2006) (Wang-Overland, 2009) (Wang-Overland, 2012) (Wang-Overland, 2013). In this work, we find a statistically significant decline in sea ice area in the Arctic for the calendar months of June to October with the rate of decline lowest in June and graducally rising to the highest in October. No statistically significant trend in Arctic sea ice area is found for the other calendar months. The relationship between global warming and sea ice area at annual and 5-year time scales for each of the twelve calendar months is studied with detrended correlation analysis. Of the months with a statistically significant full span OLS sea ice loss, only June and October show statistically significant detrended correlations with global warming at these time scales. It is noteworthy that neither of the seasonal extremum months of March and September shows a statistically significant detrended correlation between global warming and sea ice area.
  3. Since the Little Ice Age ended in the mid-19th century, there has been a strong and steady warming trend (Overpeck, 1997) that is generally assumed to be human-caused by way of fossil fuel emissions that is thought to cause atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration to rise with that in turn causing warming by way of a “greenhouse gas effect” of these changes in atmospheric composition (Callendar, 1938) (Revelle, 1983) (Keeling, 1977) (Hansen, 1981) (Lacis, 2010). With regard to the adverse and possibly dangerous effects of human-caused global warming and climate change, a great deal of attention has been given to the changes observed in the Arctic Ocean. The reason for the focus on the Arctic and particularly Arctic sea ice, is three-fold. First the Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the world with a steep and alarming rate of loss in September’s seasonal minimum sea ice area from year to year. Secondly, the loss of Arctic sea ice is also a loss of ice albedo which suggests a positive feedback loop with catastrophic runaway global warming. Thirdly, the effect of Arctic warming on the jet stream may imply more harmful impacts of climate change than otherwise possible.
  4. Sea ice consists of free floating floes in constant motion driven by wind and ocean currents. Sea ice area is defined as a contiguous surface area of the sea, measured in millions of square kilometers (MSK), where at least 15% of the sea surface consists of floating ice. On average, the dispersion of sea ice within a sea ice area varies from 50% to 80% (Munshi, Trends in polar sea ice area, 2015). Both sea ice area and the degree of dispersion within the extent can be estimated in the brightness data of passive microwave images taken from satellite mounted instruments (Comiso, 1997). Sea ice area corrected for the degree of dispersion is reported as sea ice Area (NSIDC, 2016).
  5. An intense interest in polar sea ice area in the climate change era derives from the proposition that the multi-year decline in sea ice Area serves as measure of the impact of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) (Lacis, 2010) (Hansen, 1981) (IPCC, 2014) (Comiso, 2002). An additional consideration is the reduction in albedo due to lost polar sea ice could accelerate AGW and further complicate its effects on the climate system (Comiso, 2008) (Winton, 2006) (Perovich, 2007) (Serreze, 2007).
  6. Sea ice Area undergoes a deep seasonal cycle in both poles. In the Arctic, it reaches a summer minimum of ≈4 MSK or less in September rising to a winter peak of ≈12 MSK in March in the average seasonal cycle. The seasonal cycle is reversed in the Antarctic where the summer minimum is reached in February (2 MSK) with a winter maximum of in September (14.5 MSK). The amplitude of these seasonal changes is much greater than the differences implied by long term declining trends. (Parkinson, 2002) (Cavalieri, 2012) (Munshi, Trends in polar sea ice area, 2015). Because of these large seasonal changes, trend analyses of sea ice area are usually restricted to the summer minimum and winter maximum months. The study of the other calendar months, when undertaken, must be carried out one month at a time so that long term trends are not confounded by the relatively stronger seasonal changes.
  7. The generally assumed link between global warming and Arctic sea ice area subsumes a causal relationship in which global warming causes declining sea ice. The observed decline in sea ice area and the observed rise in surface temperature are assumed to be causally related so that the interpretation of these changes proceeds in terms of what appears to be obvious dynamics in which warming causes loss of Arctic sea ice. This relationship seems obvious in particular because the very high rate of warming in the Arctic region compared with other global regions (Munshi, Arctic Sea Ice Bibiliography, 2018). Yet, it is well known that correlation among time series data are often spurious because the effect of long term trends may be falsely interpreted as a responsiveness at the time scale of interest (Prodobnik, 2008) (Munshi, Spurious Correlations in Climate Science, 2018).
  8. Satellite radiometry and visual imagery for polar ice area are provided as monthly mean values by the National Snow and Ice Data Center of the USA (NSIDC, 2016). These data are available both in dispersed (Extent) and in concentrated (Area) form in millions of square kilometers (MSK). Here, only the (Area) measures of sea ice area is used because the dispersed extent is confounded by the degree of dispersion. The primary surface temperature data used in this study are the monthly mean temperature anomalies above ocean surfaces in the North Polar Oceans within 60N to 82.5N. The data are lower troposphere temperatures (LTT) measured with satellite mounted instruments. They are provided as monthly mean anomalies from January 1979 to July 2018 by the University of Alabama Huntsville (Christy/Spencer, 2018).
  9. Trend analysis is carried out separately for each calendar month. The testable implication of the theory that the declines in sea ice area can be attributed to warming is a negative correlation between monthly mean temperature and monthly mean sea ice area for each month on a year to year basis at the annual time scale. A 5-year time scale is also tested. Hypothesis tests for these correlations are set up with the null hypothesis H0: ρ≥0 against HA: ρ<0. This form of the hypothesis test derives from a theory that implies a negative correlation. Each comparison is made at a maximum false positive error rate of α=0.001 in accordance with “Revised standards for statistical evidence” published by the National Academy of Sciences to address an unacceptable rate of irreproducible results in published research (Johnson, 2013) (Siegfried, 2010). The effect of multiple comparisons on the overall study-wide maximum false positive error rate is estimated using Holm’s procedure (Holm, 1979).
  10. Data for Arctic Sea Ice area in millions of square kilometers is provided by the National Snow and Ice Data Center of the Federal Government of the USA as both daily and monthly means from 1979 onwards (NSIDC, 2018). These data are taken by polar orbiting satellites that began measurements in December 1978 using radiometry as well as imagery in the visible spectrum. These measurements are considered to be the most reliable estimates of sea ice area possible as of this writing. The NSIDC reports sea ice area as EXTENT and also as AREA. The EXTENT measure, previously known as “dispersed extent”, reports the total area of the Arctic where at least 15% of the sea surface is occupied by sea ice. The AREA measure, previously known as “concentrated extent”, is the net ice area of the extent with areas of visible sea water removed from the extent measure. Only the AREA measure is used in this study because the EXTENT measure is confounded by the intervening variable having to do with the degree of dispersion that is of no interest in terms of the research question.
  11. Figure 7 is a tabulation of full span trends in sea ice area and temperature anomalies for each calendar month along with tests for statistical significance. The tests for significance are carried out at α=0.001. They show that the observed sea ice declines are statistically significant in the five summer and fall months of June to October. The declines observed in the data for the other calendar months can’t be interpreted as phenomena that require a cause and effect explanation because the observed trend could have been generated by randomness. The warming trends appear to be clearer but with the exception of July. Generally, the rate of warming is greater in winter and spring than in summer. However, the greatest rate of sea ice decline is seen in summer and fall with much more gradual sea ice declines in winter and spring. Only the five summer and autumn months of June to October contain statistically significant declines in sea ice area.
  12. Figure 8 is a tabulation of the results of detrended correlation analysis that addresses the research question of whether changes in sea ice area in each calendar month are responsive to the global warming temperature trend for that calendar month. The test is carried out at two time scales – annual and 5-year. At the annual time scale there is only one hypothesis and that is whether sea ice area is responsive to temperature at an annual time scale. This portion of the study is simply an update of a previous work with more recent data (Munshi, Responsiveness of sea ice extent to warming, 2016). At the 5-year time scale, three different hypotheses are tested. They are (1) whether the 5-year moving average sea ice area is responsive to the 5-year moving average temperature, (2) whether the 5-year rate of decline in sea ice is responsive to the 5-year moving average temperature, and (3) whether the 5-year decline in sea ice is responsive to the 5-year rate of warming.
  13. The results of detrended correlation analysis tabulated in Figure 8 show that four statistically significant correlations are found at an annual time-scale. They are the winter months of January and February, June in summer and October in autumn. Of these months only June and October show a statistically significant decline in sea ice (Figure 7). As a way of comparison, the 2016 study had also found four statistically significant correlations at an annual time scale but they were for the months of February, April, June, and July (Munshi, Responsiveness of sea ice extent to warming, 2016). The expectation was that a greater number of significant results would be found at the 5-year time scale but exactly four significant results were found with the months of January, February, and October in common with the annual time scale and with the addition of the month of December not found in the annual time scale. Of these months only the month of October shows a statistically significant declining trend in sea ice (Figure 7).
  14. Curiously, of the five months (June to October) with statistically significant declines in sea ice area (Figure 7), only one (October) shows a correlation with global warming at the five-year time scale whereas there were two at the one-year time scale. Thus, of the twelve calendar months studied only two months are found that contain both statistically significant losses in sea ice and statistically significant correlation of the rate of sea ice loss with the relevant measure of global warming. These results do not constitute convincing evidence of the correlation required to support the assumption that sea ice decline is driven by global warming.
  15. It is likely that the observed loss in sea ice area is a more complex phenomenon possibly with a role for winds, ocean currents, geothermal heat, and natural multidecadal variability of ocean characteristics not measured and not fully understood. Global warming may play a role in what may be a complex multivariate phenomenon but the data do not show that global warming drives year to year changes in Arctic sea ice area. More importantly, the results do not imply that the observed decline in Arctic sea ice area can be halted or moderated by taking climate action. 
  16. The geological features of the Arctic that may play a role in sea ice extent variation are described in a related post [LINK] . 

 

 

[LIST OF POSTS ON THIS SITE]

 

  1. CITATIONS PART 1: Bowley, A. (1928). The standard deviation of the correlation coefficient. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 23.161 (1928): 31-34.
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Crying Meri | Violence against women in Papua New Guinea

Burn the Witch! - TV Tropes

THIS POST IS A STUDY OF SUPERSTITION IN CLIMATE SCIENCE 

RELATED POST ON THE STUDY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS  [LINK]

[HOME PAGE OF THIS SITE]

The human instinct to identify cause and effect in nature and to manipulate natural forces for his benefit works over a wide spectrum from rational and scientific to religion, superstition, and witchcraft. Weather and climate are significant forces of nature to which man is constantly exposed and which he has overcome somewhat by adapting caves and building homes to shelter him from the weather. However, weather and climate extremes both short term weather change such as storms, temperature extremes, and precipitation extremes, and long term climate change to excessive dryness, excessive wetness, or long term transitions to warmer or colder temperatures are significant threats to man’s ability to survive and prosper. Yet, neither weather nor climate are stable and predictable but are subject to the random and chaotic whims of nature particularly so at brief time scales and small geographical extents[LINK]  

How Human Sacrifice Propped Up the Social Order - Scientific American

The dependence of man on weather increased sharply after the Neolithic Revolution because man changed from a mobile nomadic lifestyle to a sedentary one; but more importantly because it involved dependence on agriculture such that crop failure due to adverse weather can have a devastating life or death impact on settled farmers. Ancient superstitions involving human sacrifices and giving up your newborn or firstborn to the gods to ensure a good harvest can be understood in this contest.

Climate science holds that Human Caused Climate Change by way of fossil fuel emissions has destabilized the natural climate system such that it is now capable of unusual and extreme weather events. Once this hypothesis is fully accepted it triggers superstitious behavior in humans such that any and all odd and unusual aspects of weather that might otherwise have been accepted as the known irregular and volatile nature of weather, are instead attributed to climate change.

Such attribution serves to re-enforce the belief in the dangerous nature of climate change and the urgency of Climate Action to prevent the harm that it might otherwise cause. Yet, this superstition is actually presented by climate scientists as empirical evidence of human caused climate change in terms of what has come to be called “Event Attribution Science” (Munshi, 2017) (Trenberth, 2015) (Stott, 2016) (Hegerl, 2010). This aspect of human behavior, where an assumed theory of causation guides the interpretation of data in a way that re-enforces the theory of causation can be described in terms of superstition. Related post:  EVENT ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE

Superstition in humans as well as in other creatures is well documented in numerous works in the field of superstitious beliefs, superstitious behavior and the nature of superstition as an innate characteristic of humans and other creatures that derives from adaptive learning and survival (Skinner, 1948)(Timberlake, 1985)(Burnham, 1987) (Brewton, 1930) (Vyse, 2013) (Preece, 2000) (Otis, 1982) (Maller, 1933) (Beck, 2007).

A specific issue in the study of superstition is that of confirmation bias in the interpretation of data and events. For example, if one believes in the overarching power of luck in shaping our lives, and that one’s luck can be enhanced by visiting a certain shrine or wearing a special amulet, then such action will impose a confirmation bias such that unfavorable events will be overlooked and favorable events will be seen as empirical evidence of enhanced luck that can be attributed to the shrine or the amulet (Brugger, 1997) (Sterman, 2006) (MacCoun, 1998) (Tsang, 2004) (MacKay, 1841) (Tyszka, 2008) (Risen, 2016). It is this trickery of the brain that explains why superstition survives and why it plays a significant role in our lives even when what we do appears on the surface to be science. The Nickerson 1998 paper describes this phenomenon in some detail from a psychologist’s point of view with useful examples.

Nickerson, Raymond S. “Confirmation bias: A ubiquitous phenomenon in many guises.” Review of general psychology2.2 (1998): 175. Confirmation bias, as the term is typically used in the psychological literature, connotes the seeking or interpreting of evidence in ways that are partial to existing beliefs, expectations, or a hypothesis in hand. The author reviews evidence of such a bias in a variety of guises and gives examples of its operation in several practical contexts. Possible explanations are considered, and the question of its utility or dis-utility is discussed.

SORCERY KILLINGS IN MELANESIA: A relevant issue in the study of superstition in humans is the well documented phenomenon of sorcery accusations and sorcery killings in the highlands of Papua New Guinea (PNG). These events demonstrate the application of superstition in a real life setting in the chilling context of life and death. As well, they can be used as real world examples to demonstrate the correspondence between superstition and climate science. An extensive literature exists on these practices and on the role of sorcery in PNG highland culture (Lindenbaum, 2015) (Stephen, 1987) (Eves, 2013) (Urame, 2008).

Sorcery in this context has been described as “the deliberate use of magical rituals to injure, kill, or cause misfortune” (Eves, 2013) and this definition is further elaborated as a capacity to cause harm because of the ability to control extrinsic powers (Glick, 1973). This power of sorcery is believed to run in the family and so descendants of known sorcerers are readily suspected of practicing the art upon the slightest suspicion (Eves, 2013).

The issue of sorcery killings is complex (Urame, 2008). It cannot be generalized across Papua New Guinea because it exists in some societies and not in others; and varies greatly in form and severity in communities where it does exist. The situation is rendered even more complex because the practice evolves and changes over time such that in recent times there has been an emergence of young men as the primary accusers and executioners in sorcery killings.

The complex and changing situation in PNG with respect to sorcery accusations and sorcery killings contains a common logical structure in terms of the superstition that drives this practice. Sorcery related violence derives from a superstitious belief system that is common to most PNG communities. It is the belief that bad things don’t just happen by chance but that they have a cause (Beck, 2007) (Brewton, 1930); and that the cause is most likely to be the work of evil people in the community who can cause bad things by manipulating the spirits (Lindenbaum, 2015) (Urame, 2008). In this belief system, the more unusual the bad thing appears to be the more likely its evil cause (Vyse, 2013) (Urame, 2008).

Once a tragic event occurs and evil cause is suspected, a logical and well developed investigation procedure, not unlike Event Attribution Science, is activated, first to verify that it is a sorcery event, and second, if the event is verified to be a sorcery event, to identify the sorcerer that manipulated the forces of evil to cause the tragic event. The suspect event may be a sudden and unexpected death, an accidental death, a deathly sickness, a fire, death or loss of farm animals, or it may be a weather event such as temperature extremes, a drought, a flood, or a destructive storm. In all such cases, sorcery experts are brought in to study the situation for telltale signs of sorcery well known to them. Once it has been determined that the suspect event is a sorcery event, the investigation moves to the next stage – that of identifying the sorcerer.

Sorcerer identification, also known assorcery accusation”, follows a well-developed methodology based on well understood relationships developed over many generations (Urame, 2008) (Stephen, 1987). Sorcery tends to run in the family such that descendants of known sorcerers are more likely to be sorcerers than descendants of non-sorcerers. Another consideration is that sorcerers often use inanimate objects that are spiritually connected to the subject by physical or other means. For example, body hair, finger nails, and even feces that are thought to contain the spiritual signature of the subject may be used in casting the magical spell to cause harm to the selected subject. Even objects that were in close contact with the subject may be used for this purpose as for example, clothing or even a footprint carved into the mud by his or her bare feet. Therefore, possession of such items by persons in the community serves as evidence to identify them as potential sorcerers. Family members of the victim are also prime suspects because of the belief that “the blood of the relatives is hot” meaning that sorcery power is more effective when there is a blood connection (Urame, 2008). Other methods of identifying the sorcerer include past interpersonal history between the victim and members of the community that can reveal the motivation of the sorcerer in terms of prior confrontation, unresolved disputes, or interpersonal or inter-family stress.

Also relevant in identifying the sorcerer is the practical matter of making the accusation stick which requires the general approval of the community. This consideration creates a bias in the investigation that targets weaker members of the community less able to defend themselves and without much community support “such as old people and women” (Urame, 2008). The family connection at times results in a sorcery accusations against not just one individual but against an entire family thought to be a sorcery family.

Once the sorcery experts make their determination, “the science is settled” so to speak and it is not possible for “sorcery science deniers” to defend the accused. Once an accusation is made, no community member will come forward to defend the accused for fear of being accused of “protecting a sorcerer”, a crime that also carries the death penalty. The suspected sorcerer is seen as a present danger and a threat to the harmony and well-being of the community. Capital punishment is mandatory in this case for the greater good of the community.

THE PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE

The methodology for identifying the sorcerer contains uncertainties and there is of course a chance that the identification may have been in error but it is not reasonable to demand 100% certainty and let a person go free when he or she could be a sorcerer with an acceptable degree of certainty. That risk to the community at large cannot be taken under these circumstances. The precautionary principle is thus invoked and immediate capital punishment is ordered. The judgement is defended and celebrated by the community because the accusers are considered defenders of the community who are providing protection from the powers of evil (Lindenbaum, 2015) (Urame, 2008).

In this context, it is necessary that capital punishment for sorcerers must be a horrific and painful event not only for the sorcerer to bear but also for the community to see, because these horrific events serve as a deterrent against sorcery in the community. This practice is facilitated by a culture of violence in Melanesia particularly in the highlands of PNG but also welcomed by the community as an assurance of protection from sorcery in the future. The torture and killing take various forms with the target of the killing being either an individual sorcerer or a family that has been identified as a family of sorcerers.

Some documented killings recorded by (Urame, 2008) are as follows: (1) tortured for hours with dismemberment and disembowelment, their house burnt down, and then put to death; (2) held at gunpoint, slowly tortured for hours, and eventually killed; (3) the accused was able to escape by running away from the community but his wife was captured and chopped into pieces with bush knives; (4) the accused, a mother, trying to run away with her baby in her arms, ducked a bush knife but the baby was taken from her and cut in half before putting the mother to death (Urame, 2008).

Yet, even after such exhibitions of heinous horror, the community remains pliant and compliant and thankful to the accusers and executioners for saving the community from sorcery. This relationship among the accused sorcerer family, the sorcery accusers, the executioners, and the community derives from a shared superstition about sorcery in which the sorcerer is evil and the cause of tragic evil events. In this context, the grotesque anti sorcery action taken by the accusers and executioners is a service rendered to the community for its continued protection from sorcery and therefore of its continued well-being. However horrific the procedure, it is a necessary evil for the best long term interests of interests of the community at large.

The parallels with the climate action principle of saving the planet whatever the economic destruction and human cost are chilling.

Entangled Minds: Witch burning

WITCH BURNINGS IN MEDIEVAL EUROPE

Another example of socially accepted violence carried out ostensibly on behalf of the community and rationalized by superstition is described by Dr. Sallie Baliunas (Baliunas, 2018). The issue arises in the context of bad weather and a culture of witch burning in medieval Europe.

The climate history of Europe records the so called Medieval Warm Period (MWP) that peaked in the period 900-1200 AD at about 0.6C warmer than the average for the millennium that preceded it. Soon thereafter, Europe plunged into a period of cooling that bottomed out in 1600-1800 AD at about 0.8C cooler than the high of the Medieval Warm Period. This cold period, known as the Little Ice Age (LIA), was a period of great hardship for Europeans.

Canals and rivers were frozen, growth of sea ice around Iceland closed down harbors and shipping, hailstorms and snowstorms were heavy and frequent, and road and water transport was made difficult or impossible. Agricultural failure and consequent starvation and death devastated Europe. The Scandinavian colonies in Greenland starved to death and disappeared (Matthews/Briffa, 2005) (Soon/Baliunas, 2003).

To the Europeans of the time used to relative warmth and agricultural wealth, these extreme weather events seemed abnormal, unusual and bizarre and therefore likely to have evil other-worldly causes and explanations. The human tendency to look for cause and effect relationships in extreme weather predicament and their usual solutions (Maller, 1933), drove the LIA Europeans to measures not unlike the sorcery killings of Melanesia.

Europeans of the time were mostly Christians but their version of religion carried with it superstitions and cultural norms that included sorcery and witchcraft (BenYehuda, 1980). Since the 13th century and through the ages since then, whenever Europeans faced hardship from extreme weather or disease epidemics or other natural calamities, they attributed their suffering to the forces of evil personified by witches – individuals thought to possess evil supernatural powers.

In this belief system, the danger and suffering the community faces from what is deemed to be “witch caused” unnatural events can be controlled and moderated by identifying the witch or witches responsible for these events in a “witch hunt” and trial, torturing them to extract a confession, and then burning them at the stake (Summers, 2014) (Behringer, 1995) (Monter, 2002) (Levack, 2015) (Behringer, 2004).

The specific case of the effort to take “climate action” against what is assumed to be unnatural witch-caused climate change, extreme weather, and agricultural collapse of the LIA proceeded by identifying the responsible witches and putting them to death at the stake is described by Christian Pfister and Sallie Baliunas (Pfister, 2006) (Baliunas, 2018) in terms of classic works on witch hunts and witch trials by Wolfgang Behringer and William Monter. (Soon/Baliunas, 2003, Climatic extremes, recurrent crises and witch hunts: strategies of European societies in coping with exogenous shocks in the late sixteenth and early seventeenth centuries)

In addition to objective climatic data, subjective or social reactions can also serve as indicators in the assessment of climatic changes. Concerning the Little Ice Age the conception of witchcraft is of enormous importance. Weather-making counts among the traditional abilities of witches. During the late 14th and 15th centuries the traditional conception of witchcraft was transformed into the idea of a great conspiracy of witches, to explain “unnatural” climatic phenomena.

Because of their unpredictable and dangerous nature, particularly so with regard to their ability to generate hailstorms, the very idea of witches was the subject of controversial discussion around 1500. The beginnings of meteorology and its emphasis of “natural” reasons in relationship to the development of weather must be seen against the background of this demoniacal discussion.

The resurgence of witch hunts in the Little Ice Age revealed the susceptibility of society. Scapegoat reactions may be observed by the early 1560s even though climatologists, thus far, have been of the opinion that the cooling period did not begin until 1565. Despite attempts of containment, such as the Calvinistic doctrine of predestination, extended witch-hunts took place at the various peaks of the Little Ice Age because a part of society held the witches directly responsible for the high frequency of climatic anomalies and the impacts thereof.

The enormous tensions created in society as a result of the persecution of witches demonstrate how dangerous it is to discuss climatic change under the aspects of morality.

WE PROPOSE IN THIS CONTEXT THAT THE INHERENT SUPERSTITIOUS NATURE OF HUMANS HAS BEEN USED IN THE CREATION OF THE CLIMATE CRISIS AND CLIMATE EMERGENCY OF OUR TIME IN WHICH FOSSIL FUELS, THE PRODUCERS OF FOSSIL FUELS, AND THE CAPITALIST ECONOMY THAT PROFITS FROM FOSSIL FUELS  ARE THE WITCHES THAT NEED TO BE BURNED TO FULFILL ACTIVISM NEEDS AGAINST FOSSIL FUELS. CLIMATE SCIENCE MAY HAVE SOME SCIENCE IN IT BUT IT IS BEST UNDERSTOOD AS ANTI FOSSIL FUEL ACTIVISM IN WHICH EXXON AND CAPITALISM ARE THE WITCHES. 

SPECIFIC EXAMPLES OF SUPERSTITION AND CONFIRMATION BIAS IN CLIMATE SCIENCE ARE DESCRIBED IN RELATED POSTS. THEY ARE PARTICULARLY EVIDENT IN THE ATTRIBUTION OF BAD WEATHER OR CLIMATE EVENTS OR EVEN FOREST FIRES TO FOSSIL FUELS. OTHER AREAS OF CLIMATE SCIENCE WHERE SUPERSTITION IS EVIDENT ARE IN THE EXTREME FORM OF ATMOSPHERE BIAS IN THE UNDERSTANDING OF ALL CLIMATE AND GEOCHEMISTRY ANOMALIES. A SPECIFIC FORM OF THIS BIAS IS THE TENDENCY TO EXPLAIN OBSERVED CHANGES IN TERMS OF FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS. EXAMPLES ARE PROVIDED IN A LIST OF RELATED POSTS BELOW. 

RELATED POST: THE END OF THE WORLD:  [LINK]

 

SUPERSTITION AND CONFIRMATION BIAS IN CLIMATE SCIENCE

SOME EXAMPLES

A STATEMENT FROM NASA GISS AND JAMES HANSEN ON THE DANGER OF THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD

Scientific reticence hinders communication with the public about the dangers of global warming. It is important that policy-makers recognize the potential influence of this phenomenon. Scientific reticence may be a consequence of the scientific method. Success in science depends on objective skepticism. Scientific reticence has its merits. However, in a case such as ice sheet instability and sea level rise, there is a danger of excessive reticence. [LINK TO SOURCE DOCUMENT]. TRANSLATION: ADHEFRENCE TO UNBIASED OBJECTIVE SCIENTIFIC INQUIRY INTERFERES WITH CLIMATE ACTIVISM.  

  1. DATA SELECTION BIAS:  There have been many Quaternary Interglacials in the past that humans had experienced in their caves but the Holocene is the first interglacial experienced by civilized humans because human civilization is a creation of the Holocene. A related post  describes a 10,000-year climate history of the Holocene from a literature review of proxy paleoclimate data [LINK]  where we find that the Holocene interglacial from the end of the Younger Dryas to the present has not been sustained period of warming, ice melt, and sea level rise  but chaotic cycles of about ten alternating periods of glacial retreat warming with sea level rise and glacial advance cooling with sea level decline at millennial and centennial time scales.
  2. The current period of warming and glacial retreat can only be understood in this context and not in isolation. The most significant and outrageous violation of the scientific method in the climate science of the fear of warming described as a creation of the industrial economy is that climate science has selected one of the ten Holocene climate cycles to explain in terms of the cause and effect phenomenon.
  3. If climate science can explain these Holocene temperature cycles as deterministic cause and effect phenomena, they must explain all of them and not just pick one of them to explain in that way because that kind of empirical research is subject to data selection bias, confirmation bias, and circular reasoning.
  4. The climate science of Anthropogenic Global Warming and Climate Change that has selected only the post LIA warming cycle to explain as a cause and effect phenomenon is rejected solely on that basis. Such objections to climate science based on an insistence on the scientific method cannot be described as science denial as eloquently clarified by James Hansen in the quote above. COP21: James Hansen, the father of climate change awareness, claims Paris  agreement is a 'fraud' | The Independent | The Independent
  1. RELATED POST:  AN EXCLUSIVE RELIANCE ON FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS OVERLOOKS NATURAL CARBON FLOWS. [LINK]  

  2. EVENT ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE:  [LINK]  [LINK]  [LINK]  [LINK]  [LINK]  
  3. THE INTERNAL VARIABILITY ISSUE IN CLIMATE SCIENCE THAT IS OVERLOOKED IN EVENT ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE:  [LINK]  
  4. THE AIRBORNE FRACTION ISSUE IN CLIMATE SCIENCE: [LINK]  [LINK]  [LINK]  [LINK]  [LINK]  [LINK]  
  5. OCEAN ACIDIFICATION:  [LINK]  [LINK]  [LINK]  [LINK]   [LINK]   
  6. ATMOSPHERE BIAS:  [LINK]   [LINK]  [LINK]  
  7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT:  [LINK]  [LINK]  [LINK]  
  8. POLAR BEAR RESEARCH IN CLIMATE SCIENCE CONTAINS BOTH CONFIRMATION BIAS AND CIRCULAR REASONING. IT BEGINS WITH THE ASSUMPTION THAT CLIMATE CHANGE HAS MADE POLAR BEARS INTO AN ENDANGERED SPECIES WITH A LONG TERM DECLINE IN SUMMER SEA ICE EXTENT BECAUSE POLAR BEARS NEED SEA ICE TO HUNT FOR FOOD. THE RESEARCH THENUSES SOPHISTICATED WILDLIFE RESEARCH METHODOLOGY TO COMPARE POLAR BEAR SUB-POPULATIONS IN DIFFERENT REGIONS OF THE ARCTIC OVER AT BRIEF TIME SCALES OF 5 YEARS OR LESS AND THEN INTERPRETS ALL OBSERVED DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF SEA ICE AND CLIMATE CHANGE. DETAILS IN A RELATED POST:  [LINK TO POLAR BEAR POST]
  9. WHEN DID AGW HUMAN CAUSED CLIMATE CHANGE START?

    Callendar 1938 [LINK] : It started in 1900 and warmed steadily from 1900 to 1938 with the warming driven by rising CO2 which in turn is attributable to fossil fuel emissions.  Hansen 1988 [LINK] : It started in 1950 because in the 30-year period 1950-1980 there is a strong measurable warming rate with 99% probability for human cause.  IPCC 2001: It started in 1750 when the Industrial Revolution kicked in and atmospheric CO2 began to rise.  IPCC 2015: It started in 1850 by when sufficient fossil fuel carbon had entered the atmosphere for a measurable response of temperature to CO2.  NASA 2020 [LINK] : It started in 1950 because from then the relationship between CO2 and temperature we see in the climate models closely matches the observational data.  Climate Scientist Peter Cox 2018 [LINK]  : It started in the 1970s because it is since then that we see a measurable responsiveness of surface temperature to atmospheric CO2 concentration according to the theory of the greenhouse effect of CO2.  WHAT WE SEE IN THIS LIST IS THE CONFIRMATION BIAS OF CIRCULAR REASONING IN WHICH THE DATA USED TO CONSTRUCT A HYPOTHESIS IS ALSO USED TO TEST THE HYPOTHESIS. 

  10. A THEORY THAT EXPLAINS SELECTED PHENOMENAAs described in a related post on this site, the current warming cycle (AGW) is just one of twelve centennial and millennial scale warming and cooling cycles of the Holocene interglacial [LINK] . The explanation that this particular Holocene warming cycle was human caused by way of fossil fuel emissions contains a data selection bias. If climate science can explain these Holocene temperature cycles as deterministic cause and effect phenomena, they should explain all of them and not just pick one of them to explain in that way because that kind of empirical research is subject to data selection bias, confirmation bias, and circular reasoning. The climate science of Anthropogenic Global Warming and Climate Change that has selected only the post LIA warming cycle to explain as a cause and effect phenomenon can be rejected solely on that basis. In another related post, a Keeling and Whorf paper makes the same argument and the authors propose a theory of the temperature cycles of the Holocene in terms of tidal cycle resonance dynamics[LINK] . 
  11. ABSENCE OF UNCERTAINTY AND DOUBT AND THE VILIFICATION OF CRITICS.  As described in the case of the sorcery killings of Melanesia, a principal feature of superstition is absolute certainty in their findings and conclusions in conjunction with fear and loathing of superstition deniers who are usually also killed because the community cannot take the chance that the deniers are sorcerers in dormant form. This pattern of vilification, hostility, and violence against those who raise doubt in sorcery science, methods, and findings is also found in climate science. In all other forms of science we will find at least one mention of uncertainty in the findings or conclusions section of the paper as for example “The details of the our hypothesis are complex. There is much about these forcings that we do not know” (Keeling and Whorf). However, this common feature of research papers is not found in climate science where absolute certainty of human cause and of the need for changing the energy infrastructure from fossil fuels to renewables to save the planet is assumed with a corresponding hostility towards deniers as in the sorcery killings of Melanesia. [LINK]

TO SUMMARIZE: IN CLIMATE SCIENCE AS IN SUPERSTITION, ONCE A HYPOTHESIS TAKES HOLD, EVERY ODDITY IS SEEN AS EVIDENCE THAT VERIFIES AND REINFORCES THE HYPOTHESIS. 

 

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