Thongchai Thailand

AGW: Trends in Daily Station Data

Posted on: April 5, 2018

FIGURE 1: TRENDS IN DAILY TMAX AND TMIN AT 34 USHCN STATIONSUSHCNGIF

FIGURE 2: SUMMARY OF DATA IN FIGURE 1XX

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  1. The map above shows the location of the USHCN stations used in yellow. Figure 1, displays trend information for daily minimum temperatures (TMIN) and daily maximum temperatures (TMAX) in a GIF animation that cycles through the 34 stations in 17 states alphabetically from Alabama to Washington. In these plots, the twelve calendar months are labeled from 1 to 12 on the x-axis. The ordinate shows trends for these calendar months in daily TMAX (red), daily TMIN (blue), and the diurnal range (grey).
  2. The data for all 34 stations are summarized in Figure 2. In the left frame of Figure 2, the 34 stations are identified along the x-axis by the numerals 1-34 and the ordinate shows the average trends for the station in TMAX (red), TMIN (blue), and diurnal range (grey). The right frame shows the average of these values for all stations in each calendar month.
  3. What we find in these charts is that trend analysis for each calendar month of more than 100 years of daily maximum (TMAX) and daily minimum (TMIN) temperatures show an overall warming trend in the data that is driven primarily by warming in the nighttime minimum TMIN and not by the daytime maximum TMAX; and mostly by warming in the colder winter months and not by warming in the hotter summer months. This pattern is seen in both hemispheres.
  4. These results imply that the global warming trend is one of diminishing coldness rather than increasing warmness. This pattern is inconsistent with the proposal that the observed warming trend is driven by the greenhouse heat trapping effect of the rising carbon dioxide concentration of the atmosphere. The trend patterns are also inconsistent with Event Attribution procedures using climate models that attribute all heat waves to fossil fuel emissions with the further claim that emission reduction is necessary prevent the occurrence of heat waves. 
  5. Full text of the work with data analysis details may be found here: [LINK] .

THIS SAME PATTERN IS SEEN IN AUSTRALIA: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/02/12/australia-climate-change-daily-station-data/  

  1. Daily maximum (TMAX) and daily minimum (TMIN) temperatures are provided by the Government of Australia Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) for a large number of weather stations located throughout Australia (BOM, 2017). Five of these weather stations are listed below. They were selected for the study based on data availability of data for more than a century. Large gaps of a decade or more without data were found in the Boulia Airport and Hobart datasets and these stations were removed from the study. In the remaining three stations, all data from incomplete calendar years at the beginning and end of the time series were removed. The remaining sample period for full calendar years are 1865-2016 for Station-90015, 1885-2016 for Station-26026, and 1893-2016 for Station-30045. For each station the daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature are reported for each day of the year. Data are missing for 3% to 5% of the days. Missing data were replaced with the most recent data available – typically separated by one to four days. The error introduced by this procedure is assumed to be negligible. Measuring station details are shown in the table below for the five stations considered in the study. Three of these stations contained a sufficient span of data with low missing data counts and the data from these stations were selected for study. The three selected stations are: 90015-Cape-Otway, 26026-Robe, and 30045-Richmond. TMIN and TMAX and the twelve calendar months are studied separately as different phenomena of nature and not combined. This procedure requires twenty four separate sets of trend analysis for each weather station. The procedure maintains the integrity of both the diurnal cycle and the seasonal cycle. STATIONS
  2. DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS ALL THREE STATIONS fig01capeotwayROBERICHMOND
  3. TREND ANALYSIS FOR 90015 CAPE OTWAY: TMAX AND TMINTREND-1TREND-2
  4. TREND ANALYSIS FOR 26026 ROBE: TMAX AND TMIN  ROBE-TMAXROBE-TMIN
  5. TREND ANALYSIS FOR 30045 RICHMOND: TMAX AND TMIN  RICHMOND-1RICHMOND-2
  6. SUMMARY OF RESULTS: TMAX AND TMIN: ALL THREE STATIONS  SUMMARY-OF-RESULTS

SUMMARY2

SUMMARY3

SUMMARY4

CONCLUSION

Over a hundred years of daily minimum (TMIN) and daily maximum (TMAX) temperature measurements at three weather stations in Australia (90015, 26026, & 30045) taken by the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) are studied separately on a month by month basis for long term trends. The procedure is designed to maintain data integrity in terms of the diurnal and seasonal cycles that involve temperature changes orders of magnitude greater than long term trends. The results for TMAX are inconclusive with one station showing cooling and the other two showing mixed results with warming trends for some months and no evidence of trends for other months. We conclude that the TMAX data do not provide convincing evidence of long term warming trends. Dramatically different results are found for TMIN. All three stations show strong and statistically significant warming trends in TMIN. However, detrended correlation analysis could not relate these warming trends to fossil fuel emissions. These results are anomalous. No theoretical framework exists for anthropogenic global warming acting through the greenhouse effect of atmospheric CO2 by way of fossil fuel emissions to cause warming in nighttime temperatures without affecting the maximum daytime temperature. It is proposed that anomalies of this kind may be used in conjunction with other factors in the evaluation of the integrity of the instrumental record of surface temperature.

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[…] Details of the data analysis for these patterns may be found in related posts on this site [LINK] [LINK]  […]

[…] means because it is known that trend behavior varies among them as described in a related post [LINK] . The theoretical shape of these curves is a horizontal line at the correct value of climate […]

Have you done this analysis on a global scale? My friend poo pooed it because it only reflects the US…

[…] calendar months and their combination into annual means causes this information to be lost [LINK] [LINK] . Monthly means of sunspot counts and temperature and their correlation over the study period are […]

[…] warming is found mostly in nighttime daily TMIN and not in daytime daily TMAX  {Related posts [LINK] [LINK] }. G. Kukla, PD Jones, and others (Kukla 1993) describe this apparent anomaly in terms of […]

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