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AGW: Trends in Daily Station Data

Posted on: April 5, 2018

 

 

FIGURE 1: TRENDS IN DAILY TMAX AND TMIN AT 34 USHCN STATIONSUSHCNGIF

 

FIGURE 2: SUMMARY OF DATA IN FIGURE 1XX

 

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The map above shows the location of the USHCN stations used in yellow. The trend information for daily minimum (TMIN) and daily maximum (TMAX) temperatures are displayed in a GIF animation that cycles through the 34 stations in 17 states alphabetically from Alabama to Washington. In these plots, the twelve calendar months are labeled from 1 to 12 on the x-axis. The ordinate shows trends for these calendar months in daily TMAX (red), daily TMIN (blue), and the diurnal range (grey). The data for all 34 stations are summarized in Figure 2. In the left frame of Figure 2, the 34 stations are identified along the x-axis by the numerals 1-34 and the ordinate shows the average trends for the station in TMAX, TMIN, and diurnal range. The right frame shows the average for all stations in each calendar month.

Trend analysis for each calendar month of more than 100 years of daily maximum (TMAX) and daily minimum (TMIN) temperatures show an overall warming trend in the data that is driven primarily by warming in the nighttime minimum TMIN and not by the daytime maximum TMAX; and mostly by warming in the colder winter months and not by warming in the hotter summer months. This pattern is seen in both hemispheres. These trends imply that the global warming trend is one of diminishing coldness rather than increasing warmness. This pattern is inconsistent with the proposal that the observed warming trend is driven by the greenhouse heat trapping effect of the rising carbon dioxide concentration of the atmosphere.

 

Northern Hemisphere: USHCN station data: Abstract: Month by month trend analysis of more than 100 years of daily maximum (TMAX) and daily minimum (TMIN) temperatures from 34 USHCN stations in 17 states across the USA is presented. The results show an overall warming trend in the data that is driven primarily by warming in the nighttime measurement TMIN. The evidence of warming in the TMIN data is seen more clearly in a gradual narrowing of the diurnal range. These results are inconsistent with the usual assumption that warming trends in the USHCN instrumental record are driven by anthropogenic global warming.

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SSRN.COM

ACADEMIA.EDU

 

Northern Hemisphere: CET: Central England Temperature 1766-2017: Abstract: A month by month trend analysis at an annual time scale of the daily mean Central England Temperature (CET) series 1772-2016 shows a general warming trend for most autumn and winter months but not in the warmer summer months. These trends are usually described in terms of anthropogenic global warming (AGW). OLS diagnostics reveal anomalies in the data having to do with asymmetry, non-linearity, and serial Hurst dependence in the series of generational trends in a 30-year moving window. Therefore, the phenomena of nature that generated this temperature series are best understood in terms of nonlinear patterns within the sample period rather than a single linear OLS trend-line across the whole of the sample period.

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SSRN.COM

ACADEMIA.EDU

 

Southern Hemisphere: AUSTRALIA station data: Abstract: A month by month trend analysis of more than 100 years of daily maximum (TMAX) and daily minimum (TMIN) temperatures from three weather stations in Australia is presented. The results show warming trends in TMIN for all twelve calendar months at all three stations with observed warming rates ranging from 0.4 to 2.3 degrees Celsius per century. The TMAX data show a combination of warming trends, cooling trends, and no trends with significant differences among stations and among the calendar months so that no coherent conclusion can be drawn with respect to the long term trend in TMAX. Temperature trends in a moving 30-year window indicate that long term linear OLS trends in temperature are the residual product of violent multi-decadal cycles of warming and cooling at rates that are an order of magnitude greater. Detrended correlation analysis failed to establish a relationship between emissions and warming. The strong evidence of warming found in the TMIN data is confounded by its absence in TMAX as no theoretical basis exists for fossil fuel emissions to cause warming in TMIN and not in TMAX.

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SSRN.COM

ACADEMIA.EDU

 

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