Thongchai Thailand

Human Caused Global Warming

greenhouseeffect

EQUILIBRIUM CLIMATE SENSITIVITY ECS

IS THERE AN ECS PARAMETER IN THE OBSERVATIONAL DATA THAT DETERMINES SURFACE TEMPERATURE ACCORDING TO ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION?

Validity and Reliability of the Charney Climate Sensitivity Function

Monthly means of Mauna Loa atmospheric CO2 concentrations are used in conjunction with surface temperature data from two different sources for the sample period 1979-2017 to test the validity and reliability of the empirical Charney climate sensitivity function. Detrended correlation analysis of temperature in five global regions from two different sources did not show that surface temperature is responsive to changes in the logarithm of atmospheric CO2 at an annual time scale. Correlations observed in source data are thus shown to be spurious. We conclude that the empirical Charney Climate Sensitivity function is specious because it is based on a spurious correlation.

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Uncertainty in Empirical Climate Sensitivity Estimates 1850-2017

Atmospheric CO2 concentrations and surface temperature reconstructions in the study period 1850-2017 are used to estimate observed equilibrium climate sensitivity. Comparison of climate sensitivities in the first and second halves of the study period and a study of climate sensitivities in a moving 60-year window show that the estimated values of climate sensitivity are unstable and unreliable and that therefore they may not contain useful information. These results are not consistent with the existence of a climate sensitivity parameter that determines surface temperature according to atmospheric CO2 concentration.

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From Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity to Carbon Climate Response

A testable implication of the theory of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS), the coefficient of proportionality between the logarithm of atmospheric CO2 and surface temperature. This line of research has been retarded by large uncertainties in empirical estimates of the ECS. An alternative to the ECS that offers a more stable metric for AGW is the Carbon Climate Response or Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Emissions (CCR/TCRE). It is computed as the coefficient of proportionality between cumulative fossil fuel emissions and temperature. The CCR/TCRE metric provides a direct connection from emissions to temperature without the intervening step of atmospheric accumulation. We show here that though the CCR/TCRE is stable, it has no interpretation in terms of AGW because the proportionality it describes is spurious and specious.

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The Charney Sensitivity of Homicides to Atmospheric CO2: A Parody

Homicides in England and Wales 1898-2003 are studied against the atmospheric carbon dioxide data for the same period. The Charney Equilibrium Sensitivity of homicides is found to be λ=1.7 thousands of additional annual homicides for each doubling of atmospheric CO2. The sensitivity estimate is supported by a strong correlation of ρ=0.95 and detrended correlation of ρ=0.86. The analysis illustrates that spurious proportionalities in time series data in conjunction with inadequate statistical rigor in the interpretation of empirical Charney climate sensitivity estimates impedes the orderly accumulation of knowledge in this line of research.

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TRANSIENT CLIMATE RESPONSE TCR

IS THERE A TCR PARAMETER IN THE OBSERVATIONAL DATA THAT DETERMINES SURFACE TEMPERATURE ACCORDING TO CUMULATIVE EMISSIONS?

Limitations of the TCRE: Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Emissions

Observed correlations between cumulative emissions and cumulative changes in climate variables form the empirical basis of the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Emissions (TCRE) function. The TCRE is used to make forecasts of future climate scenarios based on different emission pathways and thereby to derive their policy implications for climate action. Inaccuracies in these forecasts likely derive from a statistical weakness in the methodology used. The limitations of the TCRE are related to its reliance on correlations between cumulative values of time series data. Time series of cumulative values contain neither time scale nor degrees of freedom. Their correlations are spurious. No conclusions may be drawn from them.

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From Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity to Carbon Climate Response

A testable implication of the theory of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS), the coefficient of proportionality between the logarithm of atmospheric CO2 and surface temperature. This line of research has been retarded by large uncertainties in empirical estimates of the ECS. An alternative to the ECS that offers a more stable metric for AGW is the Carbon Climate Response or Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Emissions (CCR/TCRE). It is computed as the coefficient of proportionality between cumulative fossil fuel emissions and temperature. The CCR/TCRE metric provides a direct connection from emissions to temperature without the intervening step of atmospheric accumulation. We show here that though the CCR/TCRE is stable, it has no interpretation in terms of AGW because the proportionality it describes is spurious and specious.

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The Spuriousness of Correlations between Cumulative Values

Monte Carlo simulation shows that cumulative values of unrelated variables have a tendency to show spurious correlations. The results have important implications for the theory of anthropogenic global warming because empirical support for the theory that links warming to fossil fuel emissions rests entirely on a correlation between cumulative values.

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Extraterrestrial Forcing of Surface Temperature and Climate Change: A Parody

It is proposed that visitation by extraterrestrial spacecraft (UFO) alters the electromagnetic properties of the earth, its atmosphere, and its oceans and that these changes can cause global warming leading to climate change and thence to the catastrophic consequences of floods, droughts, severe storms, and sea level rise. An empirical test of this theory is presented with data for UFO sightings and surface temperature reconstructions for the study period 1910-2015. The results show strong evidence of proportionality between surface temperature and cumulative UFO sightings. We conclude that the observed warming since the Industrial Revolution are due to an electromagnetic perturbation of the climate system by UFO extraterrestrial spacecraft.

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DO THE OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOW THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS RESPONSIVE TO EMISSIONS AT A GENERATIONAL TIME SCALE?

Correlation of Regional Warming with Global Emissions

A study of regional temperature reconstructions of the instrumental record 1850-2016 for five global regions is presented. No evidence is found to relate warming of sea surface temperature (SST) in either hemisphere to global emissions. The rate of warming over land in the Northern Hemisphere appears to show some evidence of correlation with global emissions in five of the twelve calendar months but the statistical significance of the correlation could not be verified with station data from the region. No correlation with emissions could be found in regional temperature reconstructions for land in the Southern Hemisphere or for combined land and ocean in either hemisphere. These results taken together do not support the claim that the observed warming in surface temperatures worldwide since the Industrial Revolution is driven by fossil fuel emissions or that observed changes in tropical cyclone characteristics due to rising SST are anthropogenic.

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Generational Fossil Fuel Emissions and Generational Warming

Moving generational trends in global mean temperature anomalies and moving generational average fossil fuel emissions for the study period 1850-2015 do not show a statistically significant detrended correlation that can be interpreted in terms of the theory of anthropogenic global warming which implies a measurable effect of emissions on temperature trends. The findings are consistent with prior results in which a decadal moving window was used.

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The Correlation between Emissions and Warming in the CET

A comprehensive detrended correlation analysis of the daily mean Central England Temperature (CET) series for each calendar month against fossil fuel emissions for the 245-year study period 1772-2016 is presented. Time scales of 10, 20, and 30 years were tried each at four different time spans ranging from 60 to 245 years at all possible locations within the overall study period. The results do not show a relationship between emissions and warming that can be interpreted in terms of the theory of anthropogenic global warming and climate change (AGW). The finding is inconsistent with the proposition that warming in the CET data can be related to emissions.

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DO THE OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOW THAT OCEAN ACIDIFICATION AND SEA LEVEL RISE ARE RELATED TO EMISSIONS?

An Empirical Study of Fossil Fuel Emissions and Ocean Acidification

Detrended correlation analysis of annual fossil fuel emissions and mean annual changes in ocean CO2 concentration in the sample period 1958-2014 shows no evidence that the two series are causally related. The finding is inconsistent with the claim that fossil fuel emissions have a measurable impact on the CO2 concentration of the oceans at a lag and time scale of one year.

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A Test of the Anthropogenic Sea Level Rise Hypothesis

Detrended correlation analysis of a global sea level reconstruction 1807-2010 does not show that changes in the rate of sea level rise are related to the rate of fossil fuel emissions at any of the nine time scales tried. The result is checked against the measured data from sixteen locations in the Pacific and Atlantic regions of the Northern Hemisphere. No evidence could be found that observed changes in the rate of sea level rise are unnatural phenomena that can be attributed to fossil fuel emissions. These results are inconsistent with the proposition that the rate of sea level rise can be moderated by reducing emissions. It is noted that correlation is a necessary but not sufficient condition for a causal relationship between emissions and acceleration of sea level rise.

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DO THE OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOW THAT CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION ARE RELATED TO EMISSIONS?

Responsiveness of Atmospheric CO2 to Fossil Fuel Emissions

The IPCC carbon cycle accounting assumes that changes in atmospheric CO2 are driven by fossil fuel emissions on a year by year basis. A testable implication of the validity of this assumption is that changes in atmospheric CO2 should be correlated with fossil fuel emissions at an annual time scale net of long term trends. A test of this relationship with insitu CO2 data from Mauna Loa 1958-2016 and flask CO2 data from twenty three stations around the world 1967-2015 is presented. The test fails to show that annual changes in atmospheric CO2 levels can be attributed to annual emissions. The finding is consistent with prior studies that found no evidence to relate the rate of warming to emissions and they imply that the IPCC carbon budget is flawed possibly because of insufficient attention to uncertainty, excessive reliance on net flows, and the use of circular reasoning that subsumes a role for fossil fuel emissions in the observed increase in atmospheric CO2.

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