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THIS POST IS A CRITICAL EVALUATION OF AN ASSESSMENT BY THE MEDIA OF THE IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING / CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE INTENSITY AND DESTRUCTIVENESS OF NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANES.

LINK TO THE MEDIA ARTICLE ON HURRICANES: https://www.bbc.com/weather/features/58503854

PART-1: TRANSCRIPT OF THE HURRICANE LECTURE

WELCOME TO BBC WEATHER’S CLIMATE CHECK. IN THE WAKE OF HURRICANE IDA, WE ARE LOOKING AT HOW THESE MASSIVE STORMS HAPPEN AND WHETHER CLIMATE CHANGE IS MAKING THEM MORE POWERFUL. IDA INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY OVER THE OCEAN BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN LOUISIANA AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BRINGING SUSTAINED WINDS AT 150 MILES PER HOUR, RELENTLESS RAIN AND A COASTAL STORM SURGE WHICH LED TO SEVERE FLOODING.

A HURRICANE STARTS LIFE AS A SMALL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN THE TROPICS, MOVING OVER A WARM OCEAN WITH TEMPERATURES OF 27C IT CAN SOON START TO GROW. WARM OCEAN AIR RISES INTO THE STORM AND FORMS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH IN TURN SUCKS IN EVEN MORE OF THE AIR AROUND THE STORM. THE AIR INSIDE THE STORM RISES AND AS IT RISES IT COOLS, WATER VAPOR CONDENSES INTO WATER DROPLETS, FORMING THUNDER CLOUDS AND IN THE PROCESS RELEASING EVEN MORE HEAT ENERGY TO POWER THE STORM. DUE TO THE ROTATION OF THE EARTH, THE WINDS AROUND THE HURRICANE SPIN FAASTAH AND FAASTAH AS THE STORM GROWS MORE POWERFUL. IT’S WHEN THOSE WINDS GET TO 74 MILES PER HOUR OR MORE THAT WHAT WE HAVE IS A HURRICANE. NOT EVERY STORM GROWS INTO A HURRICANE. ALL THE RIGHT INGEDIENTS NEED TO FALL INTO PLACE AT THE RIGHT TIME. FOR EXAMPLE, STRONG CROSSWINDS AT DIFFERENT LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN PULL A STORM APART.

VIOLENT HURRICANES ARE NOTHIING NEW. BUT CLIMATE SCIENTISTS BELIEVE THAT GLOBAL WARMING IS MAKING THEM STRONGAAH. WARM OCEANS GIVE HURRICNES THEIR FUEL AND AS SEA TEMPERATURES RISE THERE’S MORE FUEL TO POWER STRONGER HURRICANES. IDA FITS THAT PATTERN. THE WINDS IN THAT STORM WENT TO 65 MILES PER HOUR IN JUST 24 HOURS EASILY MEETING THE IDEA OF WHAT FORECASTERS CALL RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

AND HERE’S THE GROWING STORM APPROACHING THE U.S. COAST MOVING OVER SOMETHING CALLED A “BALLOOP CURRENT, A FLOW OF VERY WARM WATER WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 30C WITH THE WARMTH EXTENDING TO A DEPTH OF 150 METERS. THAT’S IMPORTANT BECAUSE A DEEP LAYER OF WARMTH MEANS A BIGGER SUPPLY OF ENERGY TO FUEL THE STORM AND THIS IS WHY IDA KEPT ON GROWING BEFORE IT HIT. SCIENTISTS SAY RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING STORM LIKE IDA SEEMS TO BE BECOMING MORE COMMON.

WHEN HURRICANE IDA MOVED OVER LAND IT LOST CONTACT WITH ITS WARM WATER POWER SOURCE AND THE WINDS WEAKENED BUT THE STORM HAD PICKED UP ENOUGH WATER FOR THE RAIN TO KEEP ON FALLING EVEN AS FAR NORTH AS NEW YORK CITY. A STATE OF EMERGENCY WAS DECLARED AS WELL OVER A MONTH’S RAINFALL FELL IN JUST ONE DAY. 80 MILLIMETRS CAME DOWN IN ONE HOUR IN CENTRAL PARK AND SET A NEW RECORD.

A WARMER ATMOSPHERE HOLDS MORE WATER VAPOR AND THIS TRANSLATES INTO HEAVIER AND MORE INTENSE RAINFALL. TO MAKE MATTERS WORSE, IT CAUSES HURRICANES TO TRAVEL MORE SLOWLY AS GLOBAL WARMING WEAKENS THE WINDS HIGH UP IN THE ATMOSPHERE THAT STEER THESE MASSIVE STORMS AND SO HEAVIER RAIN FALLS IN ONE PLACE FOR LONGER.

CLIMATE CHANGE DOES NOT NECESSARILY MEAN MORE HURRICANES, BUT THAT THOSE THAT DO DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONGER, WETTER, AND MORE DESTRUCTIVE.

Thomas Knutson « Hurricanes

PART-2: CRITICAL COMMENTARY

WE FIND THAT THE BBC HAS MADE AN EXCELLENT PRESENTATION ON THE DETAILS OF EXACTLY WHAT TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE, HOW THEY FORM, HOW THEY MAY EVOLVE, AND WITH FURTHER CLEAR AND LOGICAL ARGUMENTS ON HOW GLOBAL WARMING ACTING THROUGH SST AND HIGH WINDS CAN ALTER THESE STORMS IN WAYS THAT WOULD MAKE THEM MORE DESTRUCTIVE NOT ONLY IN TERMS OF WIND VELOCITY BUT IN TERMS OF THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL.

HOWEVER, WHAT IS MISSING IN THE PRESENTATION IS THE UNCERTAINTY ISSUE WHERE WE FIND THAT UNDER THE IDENTICAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AND EVOLUTION A WIDE RANGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE CONDITIONS ARE FOUND AND IN THE LONG HISTORY OF THESE STORMS LARGE DECADAL VARIABILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FEATURES ARE FOUND WITH NO CLEAR CAUSE AND EFFECT RELATIONSHIP FOR THESE RANDOM DIFFERENCES UNDER IDENTIAL CONDITONS. THIS IS THE HUGE ISSUE OF UNCERTAINTY IN TROPICAL CYCLONE SCIENCE THAT THE OTHERWISE SUPERB BBC PRESENTATION HAS MISSED.

THE UNCERTAINTY ISSUE IS BEST DESCRIBED IN A NOW FAMOUS CLIMATE SCIENCE RESEARCH PAPER KNOWN AS “KNUTSON ET AL 2010” WHERE THE LEAD AUTHOR IS TOM KNUTSON OF THE NOAA IN THE USA. CO-AUTHORS INCLUDE JUST ABOUT EVERY WELL KNOWN TROPICAL CYCLONE SCIENTISTS IN THE USA AS FOR EXAMPLE, KERRY EMANUEL, CHRIS LANDSEA, JAMES KOSSIN, GREG HOLLAND, AND ISAAC HELD.

WHAT TOM KNUTSON SAYS: “Tropical cyclones and climate change.” Nature geoscience 3.3 (2010): 157-163. In the paper, Tom Knutson spells out exactly what climate science claims in terms of the impact of AGW climate change on tropical cyclones with climate model predictions of the effect of rising SST on tropical cyclones. His main points are as follows: (1) Globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones will rise as AGW increases SST. Models predict globally averaged intensity increase of 2% to 11% by 2100. (2). Models predict falling globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones with frequency decreasing 6%-34% by 2100. (3). The globally averaged frequency of “most intense tropical cyclones” should increase as a result of AGW. The intensity of tropical cyclones is measured as the ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy). (4). Models predict increase in precipitation within a 100 km radius of the storm center. A precipitation rise of 20% is projected for the year 2100. (5) Extremely high variance in tropical cyclone data at an annual time scale suggests longer, perhaps a decadal time scale which in turn greatly reduces statistical power. (6) Model projections for individual cyclone basins show large differences and conflicting results. Thus, no testable implication can be derived for studies of individual basins.

TO SUMMARIZE, THE BIG ISSUE IN THE STUDY OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GLOBAL WARMING AND TROPICAL CYCLONES IS UNCERTAINTY AND LARGE UNEXPLAINED VARIANCE IN THE DATA. THIS MEANS THAT TO MAKE A CAUSAL CONNECTION FROM GLOBAL WARMING TO TROPICAL CYCLONE FREQUENCY, ENERGY, AND DESTRUCTIVENESS, THE RESEARCH MUST BE CONSTRAINED BY THESE REQUIREMENTS.

  1. THE STUDY MUST BE OVER A LONG TIME SPAN LONGER THAN 40 YEARS DUE TO LARGE UNEXPLAINED DECADAL VARIABILITY IN THE DATA THAT HAVE NO CAUSE AND EFFECT EXPLANATION.
  2. THE STUDY MUST INCLUDE TROPICAL CYCLONES FROM ALL SIX CYCLONE BASINS. THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS JUST ONE OF SIX CYCLONE BASINS THE OTHERS BEING THE SOUTH ATLANTIC, THE WEST PACIFIC, THE NORTH INDIAN, THE SOUTH INDIAN, AND THE SOUTH PACIFIC.
  3. WHAT WE FIND IN THE OTHERWISE EXCELLENT LECTURE ON THE BASICS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IS THAT THE ASSUMPTION THAT A SINGLE TROPICAL CYCLONE, IN A SINGLE SEASON, IN A SINGLE TROPICAL CYCLONE BASIN CONTAINS INFORMATION ABOUT THE IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON TROPICAL CYCLONES IS A FATAL FLAW IN THE ANALYSIS IN WHAT IS OTHERWISE A WONDERFUL BBC PRESENTATION ON WHAT TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE, HOW THEY FORM, AND HOW THEY ARE LIKELY TO BEHAVE.

Thomas Knutson « Hurricanes
TOM KNUTSON

THIS POST IS A STUDY OF REGIONAL CLIMATE ACTION PLANS WITH DATA PROVIDED BY STATISTA DATED DECEMBER 2020.

LINK TO STATISTA: https://www.statista.com/statistics/266138/climate-change-the-countries-with-the-highest-achievements/

THE CLIMATE ACTION LEADERS AND THEIR PERFORMANCE RATINGS ARE AS FOLLOWS

#1: SWEDEN – EMISSIONS 49.7E6 POPULATION 10.3E6, GDP $612E9: CLIMATE ACTION RATING 74.42

#2: UK- EMISSIONS 302E6 POPULATION 66.7E6, GDP $1.96E12: CLIMATE ACTION RATING 69.66

#3: DENMARK- EMISSIONS: 38E6, POPULATION 5.8E6, GDP $352.24E9: CLIMATE ACTION RATING 69.42

#4: MOROCCO – EMISSIONS: 75E6, POPULATION 10.3 MILLION, GDP $113.6E9: CLIMATE ACTION RATING 67.59

#5: NORWAY- POPULATION 10.3 MILLION, GDP $362E9: CLIMATE ACTION RATING 65.45

#6: CHILE – POPULATION 10.3 MILLION, GDP $252.8E9: CLIMATE ACTION RATING 64.05

#7: INDIA – POPULATION 10.3 MILLION, GDP $3050E9: CLIMATE ACTION RATING 63.98

#8: FINLAND – POPULATION 10.3 MILLION, GDP $270.64E9: CLIMATE ACTION RATING 62.63

#9: MALTA – POPULATION 10.3 MILLION, GDP $14.6E9: CLIMATE ACTION RATING 62.21

#10: LATVIA – POPULATION 10.3 MILLION, GDP $33.5E9: CLIMATE ACTION RATING 61.88

#11: SWITZERLAND – POPULATION 10.3 MILLION, GDP $747.4E9: CLIMATE ACTION RATING 60.85

#12: LITHUANIA – POPULATION 10.3 MILLION, GDP $14.8E9: CLIMATE ACTION RATING 58.03

#13: EU – POPULATION 10.3 MILLION, GDP $15167E9: CLIMATE ACTION RATING 57.29

NOT INCLUDING THE EU WE HAVE THE 12 CLIMATE ACTION LEADERS OF THE WORLD WITH A TOTAL GDP OF 7754E9 USD REPRESENTING ABOUT 10% OF GLOBAL GDP. WITH THE EU INCLUDED WE HAVE A TOTAL CLIMATE ACTION LEADERSHIP GDP OF 22921E9 USD OR 27% OF THE WORLD’S GDP.

THE RATE OF RISE IN ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION OVER THE PERIOD 1980-2020 ARE SHOWN BELOW. THERE IS NO EVIDENCE THAT THE HEROIC SACRIFICIAL EFFORT OF THE 12 COUNTRIES LISTED ABOVE HAS HAD ANY IMPACT ON THE STEADY RISE IN ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION.

WE CONCLUDE FROM THE ANALYSIS ABOVE THAT THESE DATA SUGGEST ONE OF TWO POSSIBILITIES. FIRST, THE DATA MAY SUGGEST THAT CLIMATE ACTION NEEDS TO BE GLOBAL AND ANYTHING SHORT OF GLOBAL HAS NO CLIMATE ACTION INTERPRETATION. IF THAT IS NOT THE CASE, WE CONCLUDE THAT THE OBSERVED RISE IN ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION IS NOT RESPONSIVE TO FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS.

RELATED POSTS ON THIS SITE

THE FIRST OPTION, THAT CLIMATE ACTION NEEDS TO BE GLOBAL TO BE EFFECTIVE IS EXPLORED IN A RELATED POST#1: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/02/23/renewable-energy-statistics/ . THE IMPLICATION IS THAT SHORT OF A GLOBALLY COORDINATED CLIMATE ACTION PROGRAM TO CUT GLOBAL EMISSIONS – WHAT THE UN WAS EXPECTED TO DELIVER BY WHAT THE UN FAILED TO DELIVER, – SHORT OF THAT, CLIMATE ACTION HEROISM OF NATION STATES, HOWEVER MANY, HAS NO CLIMATE ACTION INTERPRETATION.

THE SECOND POSSIBILITY, THAT THE OBSERVED RISE IN ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION IS NOT DRIVEN BY FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS, IS EXPLORED IN ANOTHER RELATED POST ON THIS SITE. LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/21/the-case-against-fossil-fuels/

RELATED POST#1:M

Mauna Loa CO2
CO2 Trend for Mauna Loa

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL EVALUATION OF THE DETERMINATION BY CLIMATE SCIENCE THAT RISING ATMOSPHERIC CO2 IS A TOXIC TIME BOMB FOR CASSAVA AGRICULTURE BECAUSE HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC CO2 LEVELS CAUSE CASSAVA TO BECOME TOXIC.

LINK TO SOURCE: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climate-crops-idUSTRE55S2KY20090629

PART-1: WHAT THE SOURCE ARTICLE SAYS

Crops face toxic timebomb in warmer world: By David Fogarty, Climate Change Correspondent, Asia, SINGAPORE (Reuters) – Staples such as cassava on which millions of people depend become more toxic and produce much smaller yields in a world with higher carbon dioxide levels and more drought, Australian scientists say.

A farm of El Charcote in the central state of Cojedes, Venezuela.

17AAgosto - Twitter Search

The findings, presented on Monday at a conference in Glasgow, Scotland, underscored the need to develop climate-change-resistant cultivars to feed rapidly growing human populations, said Ros Gleadow of the Monash University in Melbourne. Gleadow’s team tested cassava and sorghum under a series of climate change scenarios, with particular focus on different CO2 levels, to study the effect on plant nutritional quality and yield. Both species belong to a group of plants that produce chemicals called cyanogenic glycosides, which break down to release poisonous cyanide gas if the leaves are crushed or chewed. Around 10 percent of all plants and 60 percent of crop species produce cyanogenic glycosides. The team grew cassava and sorghum at three different levels of CO2; just below today’s current levels at about 360 parts per million in the atmosphere, at about 550 ppm and about double at 710 pm. Current levels in the air are just under 390 ppm, around the highest in at least 800,000 years and up by about a third since the start of the Industrial Revolution. “What we found was the amount of cyanide relative to the amount of protein increases,” in cassava. At double current CO2 levels, the level of toxin was much higher while protein levels fell. The ability of people and herbivores, such as cattle, to break down the cyanide depends largely on eating sufficient protein. Anyone largely reliant on cassava for food, particularly during drought, would be especially at risk of cyanide poisoning. While it was possible to use processing techniques to reduce the level of toxin in the cassava leaves, it was the 50 percent or greater drop in the number of tubers that caused most concern, Gleadow said.About 750 million people in Africa, Asia and Latin America rely on cassava as a staple. The starchy tubers are used to make flour and the plant is ideal in dry regions because of its hardy nature. The good news was that the levels of toxin in the tuber didn’t increase with CO2, unlike the edible leaves. “The downside of that is that we found the plant didn’t grow nearly as well. There’s been this common assumption that plants will always grow better in a high CO2 world. And we’ve now found that these plants grew much worse and had smaller tubers. At the 550 ppm level, the problem was not as serious and this meant scientists had a bit of breathing space. “We’ve got 20 to 30 years to develop cultivars, which is going to be absolutely essential because by then about 1 billion people will probably be reliant on cassava. Gleadow’s group looked at a type of sorghum commonly fed to cattle in Australia and Africa and found it became less toxic at the highest CO2 level. But under drought conditions, leaf toxin levels rose. She said her team was looking at creating mutations to get rid of the toxin response to drought. “If we’re going to adapt in the future to a world with twice today’s CO2 we need to understand how plants are working, how they are responding and what cultivars we need to develop.

PART-2: CRITICAL COMMENTARY

IN A RELATED POST, WE DESCRIBE GREENHOUSE AGRICULTURE OPERATIONS WHERE CO2 LEVELS OF 1000 TO 2000 PPM ARE ROUTINELY USED.

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/05/24/elevated-co2-and-crop-chemistry/

WE ALSO NOTE THAT A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE WORLD’S CASAVA PRODUCTION IS CARRIED OUT IN GREENHOUSES. THAT 400PPM OF CO2 TURNS CASAVA INTO A TOXIC SUBSTANCE IS NOT CREDIBLE UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.

THE EXPERIMENTAL STUDY CITED TO SUPPORT SUCH CAUSATION NEEDS MORE CAREFUL ANALYSIS WITH THE DETAILS OF THE DATA INCLUDING DATA THAT MAY NOT HAVE BEEN TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION PERHAPS AS A CONSEQUENCE OF A BIAS IN THE RESEARCH QUESTION THAT SEEKS NOT TO FIND THE REASON FOR TOXICITY BUT FOR WAYS TO RELATE TOXICITY TO CO2.

WE ALSO NOTE THAT THE DATA ARE EXCLUSIVELY FROM A TINY CORNER OF VENEZUELA. WITHOUT SOME GEOGRAPHICAL DIVERSIFICATION IN DATA COLLECTION, IT CANNOT BE ASSUMED THAT THE OBSERVED ANOMALIES ARE INDPENDENT OF GEOGRAPHY AND NOT A FEATURE OF LOCATION.

IT IS LIKELY THAT THE RESEARCH IN THIS CASE WAS NOT UNBIASED AND OBJECTIVE SCIENTIFIC INQUIRY BUT RATHER AN EFFORT TO FIND SOMETHING BAD ABOUT ATMOSPHERIC CO2 ON THE EVE OF COP26 IN GLASGOW.

IT IS NOTEWORTY THAT THIS RESEARCH WAS CARRIED OUT FOR A PRESENTATION TO BE MADE AT A CONFERENCE IN GLASGOW WHERE COP26 WILL BE HELD. THE FINDINGS REPORTED ARE NOT CREDIBLE IN LIGHT OF THE CULTIVATION OF CASAVA IN GREENHOUSES AND THE POSSIBLE ROLE OF GLASGOW AND COP26 IN MOTIVATING THE FINDINGS REPORTED..

BELOW WE PRESENT IMAGES OF CASAVA BEING GROWN IN GREENHOUSES.

FMS Farms production
Greenhouse farming: What Farmers Must Know – Stream Brooks

LINK TO SOURCE: https://nextgencassava.wordpress.com/tag/cassava/

A FEATURE OF THE SCIENCE OF GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE IS THAT CO-OCCURRENCE IS OFTEN TAKEN AS EVIDENCE OF CAUSATION PARTICULARLY SO IF IT CAN BE RATIONALIZED IN TERMS OF THE THEORY THAT THE DATA ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT. THAT KIND OF RESEARCH CONTAINS CIRCULAR REASONING SUCH THAT CAUSATION ASSUMPTIONS ARE THOUGHT TO BE VERIFIED. HOWEVER, AS SEEN IN THE IMAGES BELOW PROVIDED BY TYLER VIGEN, CO-OCCURRENCE IS NOT EVIDENCE OF CAUSATION. IT MAY PROVIDE REASON TO INVESTIGATE WHETHER CAUSATION EXISTS IN THE RELATIONSHIP BUT IT DOES NOT SERVE AS EVIDENCE OF CAUSATION.

Spurious Correlations
Spurious Correlations

Spurious Correlations
COP26 at the SEC in Glasgow — BIG HIT

QUESTION

Are the natural environment and human/social systems a system themselves? Can the environment and social system exist without each other?

ANSWER
Environmentalism has been corrupted and complicated with bizarre contradictions by the separation of humans from nature by the humans. This separation is at once unnatural and a creation of the human ego.

Only when we learn and accept that we are not the gods and the keepers and caretakers of nature but just another species of mammals will we find our natural role and optimal function in this system.

PLEASE SEE: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/08/22/the-origin-of-eco-wacko/

Garrett Hardin on the Tragedy of the Commons and Resources - YouTube
GARRETT HARDIN, FATHER OF ECO WACKO

RELATED POST ON THE BAMBI PRINCIPLE: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/15/the-bambi-principle/

George Monbiot on U.K. Climate Emergency & the Need for Rebellion to  Prevent Ecological Apocalypse | Democracy Now!

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL EVALUATION OF A STATEMENT ON CLIMATE CHANGE BY ACTIVIST GEORGE MONBIOT.

PART-1: WHAT THE STATEMENT SAYS

  1. CLIMATE CHANGE IS AN ENVIRONMENTAL CRISIS. WE CAN’T BUILD OUR WAY OUR OF THIS ENVIRONMENTAL CRISIS. All over the world, governments are using the pandemic and the environmental crisis to justify a new splurge of infrastructure spending. In the US, Joe Biden’s bipartisan infrastructure framework “will make our economy more sustainable, resilient, and just”. In the UK, Boris Johnson’s build back better programme will “unite and level up the country”, under the banner of “green growth”. China’s belt and road project will bring the world together in hyper-connected harmony and prosperity. Sure, we need some new infrastructure. If people are to drive less, we need new public transport links and safe cycling routes. We need better water treatment plants and recycling centres, new wind and solar plants, and the power lines required to connect them to the grid. But we can no more build our way out of the environmental crisis than we can consume our way out of it. Why? Because new building is subject to the eight golden rules of infrastructure procurement. Rule 1 is that the primary purpose of new infrastructure is to enrich the people who commission or build it. Even when a public authority plans a new scheme for sensible reasons, first it must pass through a filter: will this make money for existing businesses? This is how, for example, plans to build a new hydrogen infrastructure in the UK appear to have been hijacked. In August, the head of the UK Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Association, Chris Jackson, resigned in protest at the government’s plans to promote hydrogen made from fossil methane, rather than producing it only from renewable electricity. He explained that the government’s strategy locks the nation into fossil fuel use. It seems to have the gas industry’s fingerprints all over it.For the same reason, many of the beneficial projects in Biden’s infrastructure framework and American Jobs Plan have been cut down or stripped out by Congress, leaving behind a catalogue of pork-barrel pointlessness. Much of the time, schemes are created and driven not by a well-intentioned public authority, but by the demands of industry. Their main purpose – making money – is fulfilled before anyone uses them. Only some projects have the secondary purpose of providing a public service. Worldwide, construction is the most corrupt of all industries, often dominated by local mafias and driven by massive kickbacks for politicians. If infrastructure is to create any public benefit, it needs to be tightly and transparently regulated. Boris Johnson’s plans to deregulate the planning system and to build a series of free ports, where businesses will be able to escape many labour, customs and environmental rules, will ensure that the link between new building and public need becomes even more tenuous. Rule 2 is that there’s an inherent bias towards selecting projects with the worst possible value for money. As the economic geographer Bent Flyvbjerg points out, “the projects that are made to look best on paper are the projects that amass the highest cost overruns and benefit shortfalls in reality.” Decisions are routinely based on misinformation and “delusional optimism”. HS2, whose nominal costs have risen from £37.5bn in 2009 to somewhere between £72bn and £110bn today, while its alleged financial benefits have fallen, is not the exception: it’s the global rule. By contrast, for £3bn a year, all bus tickets in the UK could be issued without charge, a policy that would take more cars off the road and reduce emissions much faster than this gigantic white elephant. Rule 3 is that the environmental benefits of new schemes are routinely overstated while the costs are underplayed. HS2 is again emblematic: though it has been promoted as a greener way to travel, the government’s estimates suggest that it could, overall, release more carbon than it saves. Bypasses that were meant to relieve traffic jams merely shunt congestion to the next pinch point. Big hydroelectric dams routinely produce less electricity than promised while destroying entire ecosystems. One reason for the environmental costs of new infrastructure is the massive footprint of concrete, whose carbon emissions may never be recouped. Another is the way new building creates new demand. This is an explicit aim of the government’s national infrastructure strategy and its “10-point plan for a green industrial revolution”. But you don’t solve a problem by making it bigger. Rule 4 is that in countries with high biodiversity, infrastructure is the major driver of habitat destruction. As a paper in the journal Trends in Ecology & Evolution shows, new infrastructure and the deforestation it causes is highly “spatially contagious”. In other words, one scheme leads to another and then another, expanding the frontier inexorably into crucial habitats. There is an almost perfect relationship between the proximity to a road and the number of forest fires. Roads, above all other factors, are tearing apart the forests of the Amazon, the Congo basin and south-east Asia. Rule 5 is that massive infrastructure schemes disproportionately affect territories belonging to indigenous people: for centuries their land has been treated as other people’s frontiers. Indigenous groups fought long and hard to establish the principle of “free, prior and informed consent”, which is recognised by the UN and in international law but ignored almost everywhere. This rule applies to all kinds of infrastructure, even those we see as benign. A report by the Business and Human Rights Resource Centre shows how renewable energy schemes have often driven a coach and horses through indigenous people’s rights. Rule 6 is that greener infrastructure will produce a greener outcome only if it’s accompanied by the deliberate retirement of existing infrastructure. In addressing the climate and ecological emergencies, the key issue is not the new things we do, but the old things we stop doing. But while the UK government has plans to fund new rail links, bus services and cycle lanes, it has no plans to retire any road or runway. On the contrary, it boasts about its “record investment in strategic roads” (£27bn). Every major airport in the UK has plans for expansion. Last week, for example, Gatwick airport announced a consultation to raise its passenger numbers from 46 million to 75 million a year. Rule 7 is that rich nations tend to be oversupplied with some types of infrastructure. One of the simplest, cheapest and most effective green policies is to set aside existing motorway lanes for buses, to create a fast, efficient inter-city service. But where’s the money for construction companies in that? Rule 8 is that environmental change cannot be delivered only by infrastructure. To be effective, it needs to be accompanied by social change: travelling less as well as travelling better, for example. We need to develop not only new railways and tramlines and wind farms and power lines, but a new way of life. But while governments and construction companies are happy to give us more of everything, the one thing we cannot have is less. The overarching rule is this: if you want a greener world, resist the rising tide of concrete.

PART-2: CRITICAL COMMENTARY

THIS AUTHOR IS OPPOSED TO PROFIT FOR BUSINESSMEN, OPPOSED TO ECONOMIC GROWTH, AND OPPOSED TO CAPITALISM ALL OF WHICH HE DISLIKES IN THE CONTEXT OF HIS THEORY THAT THESE HUMAN INNOVATIONS ARE MECHANISMS FOR ETERNAL ECONOMIC GROWTH AND THAT ETERNAL ECONOMIC GROWTH THREATENS THE PLANET AND THAT THEREFORE THINGS LIKE ECONOMIC GROWTH AND CAPITALISM OF THE HUMANS ARE THE CANCER OF THE PLANET THAT WILL DESTROY THE PLANET UNLESS CURTAILED AND WITHDRAWN.

CAPITALISM IS THE PLANET’S CANCER

HE IS NOT ALONE IN THIS VIEW OF CAPITALISM AND CAPITALISM DRIVEN ECONOMIC GROWTH. HE IS IN THE COMPANY OF NOTABLE HISTORICAL FIGURES SUCH AS KARL MARX, VLADIMIR LENIN, JOSEPH STALIN, AND MAO ZEDONG, ALL OF WHOM NOTED THE VERY SAME FLAWS IN CAPITALISM AND “ETERNAL” ECONOMIC GROWTH DRIVEN BY CAPITALISM AND DESCRIBED THE WEALTH ORIENTATION, THE INCOME DISPARITY, THE POVERTY, AND THE ECOLOGICAL HARM THAT RESULT FROM THE WEALTH OBSESSION OF A SMALL MINORITY OF THE SUPER RICH.

WITH GREAT SCHOLARLY WISDOM AND PERSONAL ACTIVISM AND SACRIFICES THEY CREATED SIGNFICANT ALTERNATIVE ECONOMIES THAT WERE NOT DRIVEN BY THE WEALTH AND POWER OBSESSION OF THE FEW AT THE EXPENSE OF THE MANY. THEY OVERHAULED THE THEORY AND PHILOSOPHY OF ECONOMICS IN GIANT ECONOMICS EXPERIMENTS IN RUSSIA, CHINA, AND ELSEWHERE.

HOWEVER, WHAT HISTORY HAS RECORDED FOR US IN THESE BOLD AND CREATIVE ECONOMICS EXPERIMENTS TO UNDO THE HORROR OF CAPITALISM AND ETERNAL ECONOMIC GROWTH IS THAT THEY TURNED OUT TO BE GIANT AND GRIM FAILURES WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECLINE OF THE HUMAN CONDITION. THEY FOUND THAT EQUALITY CAN BE ACHIEVED BY MAKING SURE THAT EVERYONE IS EQUALLY POOR. THESE ECONOMICS EXPERIMENTS TURNED OUT TO BE TRAGIC AND SIGNIFICANT FAILURES SUCH THAT ALL OF THESE EXPERIMENTS HAVE SINCE BEEN ABANDONED.

THESE BOLD EXPERIMENTING COUNTRIES THEN WENT THROUGH MANY DECADES OF PAINFUL AND DIFFICULT CHANGES BUT EVENTUALLY RE-EMERGED AS CAPITALISM ECONOMIES WITH ETERNAL ECONOMIC GROWTH, PROSPERITY, AND GREATLY ELEVATED HUMAN CONDITION AS SEEN IN THE ECONOMICS MIGHT OF MAO’S CHINA HAVING EMERGED FROM A NEAR DEATH ECONOMICS EXPERIMENT TO ITS NEW STATUS AS A CAPITALISM DRIVEN GLOBAL ECONOMICS POWERHOUSE.

DETAILS OF THE RE-EMERGENCE OF CHINA FROM MAOISM ARE PROVIDED IN RELATED POSTS ON THIS SITE:

LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/06/04/wbm2001enterprise-reform-in-china/

LINK#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/05/30/wbm2001-the-private-sector-in-china/

China's curious cult of the mango - BBC News

SADLY, WHAT WE FIND IN THE CLIMATE CHANGE ERA IS THAT THIS SORDID AND TRAGIC HISTORY OF THE ECONOMICS EXPERIMENTS TO REJECT THE EVILS OF CAPITALISM AND ETERNAL ECONOMIC GOWTH IN FAVOR OF A KINDER, GENTLER, AND MORE HUMANE ECONOMICS IS THAT ENOUGH TIME HAS PASSED, AND THE CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUE HAS SET THE RIGHT KIND OF CONTEXT FOR THE RE-EMERGENCE OF MAO, THIS TIME IN THE WEST, POSSIBLY THE UK.

Uk Communism High Resolution Stock Photography and Images - Alamy

Petition · Communist England · Change.org

Woman in Haiti

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF A RACIST PUSH FOR CLIMATE ACTION ON THE EVE OF COP26 BY PARADING POVERTY AND USING THE MISERY OF THE POOR IN THE THIRD WORLD AS A TOOL FOR SELLING COP 26 AND THE CLIMATE ACTION AGENDA.

PART-1: WHAT THE BBC COP26 PROMOTIONIONAL ARTICLE SAYS

Climate change: Vulnerable nations call for ’emergency pact. The countries most vulnerable to climate change are calling for an “emergency pact” to tackle rising temperatures. The group wants all countries to agree to radical steps to avoid “climate catastrophe” at the upcoming COP26 meeting in Glasgow. Green campaigners are urging a postponement of the gathering, citing problems with vaccines for delegates. The Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF) says the event is critical and cannot wait. Weather-related disasters have increased five-fold. The climate change summit at COP26 is a make or break event for planet. Representing some 1.2 billion people, the CVF, “CLIMATE VULNERABLE COUNTRIES”consists of countries in Africa, Asia, the Caribbean, Latin America and the Pacific. The group has been key in pushing the rest of the world to accept the idea of keeping the rise in global temperatures to under 1.5C this century. This was incorporated into the Paris agreement in 2015. Recent research from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggests that the threshold will be passed in little over a decade at current rates of carbon emissions. In less than two months, global leaders will gather in Glasgow for COP26, the most critical meeting on climate change since Paris. Ahead of the Glasgow meeting, the CVF has issued a manifesto for what the conference must deliver to keep the planet safe and protect the most vulnerable. Environmental groups have suggested postponing the meeting, on the grounds that vaccine distribution is inequitable and that delegates from poorer countries face huge bills for quarantine hotels when they arrive in the UK. However, the CVF member states insist the meeting must go ahead in person, and are calling for support and facilitated access to ensure inclusive participation.The UK government has responded to these calls by agreeing to pay the quarantine hotel expenses of any delegate, observer or media from a developing country. The vulnerable group says that progress on climate change has stalled and COP26 should move forward with what it terms a “climate emergency pact”. This would see every country put forward a new climate plan every year between now and 2025. At present, signatories of the Paris agreement are only obliged to put forward new plans every five years. The vulnerable nations say that richer countries must fulfil their obligations to deliver $100bn in climate finance per year over the 2020-24 period. The CVF nations want this money to be split 50-50 between cutting carbon and helping countries adapt to the threat posed by rising temperatures.The countries also want the UK to “take full responsibility” for this aspect of the negotiations, saying it is vital to restore confidence in the Paris pact. Among the other areas that the most vulnerable nations want to see progress on is the question of debt-for-climate swaps. Many of the world’s poorest countries have large debt burdens, and these have been exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic which has stretched finances even further. In a debt-for-climate swap, a country can reduce what it owes to international creditors by directing the debt service payments to fund renewable energy or greater protection for nature. One such restructuring was recently announced by Belize where the debt money will now go to support marine conservation projects instead.”Vulnerable countries have unique needs – and public-private collaboration will be key to addressing them. Whether it is in debt for nature swaps such as the recent Belize announcement or in increasing public sector capability to structure investment projects to attract private finance, the aim is to accelerate progress in this area so that 2022 becomes the year of climate action solidarity.”

Bangladesh river
BANGLADESH RIVER

Marshall islands
PART-2:

PART-2: CRITICAL COMMENTARY

RACISM IN THE GLOBAL NORTH IS BEST UNDERSTOOD IN THE CONTEXT OF THEIR RELATIONSHIP WITH THE GLOBAL SOUTH IN THE OLD COLONIALISM DAYS WHERE THE ASSUMPTION STANDS THAT THE COLONIES, {THE GLOBAL SOUTH} MUST ULTIMATELY SERVE THE NEEDS OF THEIR COLONIAL MASTERS {THE GLOBAL NORTH}. THAT MENTALITY STILL LINGERS SUCH THAT IT MAKES IT POSSIBLE FOR THE GLOBAL NORTH TO SELL THE MISERY OF THE DIRT POOR IN THE GLOBAL SOUTH AS A MARKETING TOOL FOR THEIR THEIR COP26 CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA.

Colonialism - ClassNotes.ng

SO WHAT WE SEE HERE IS THAT THE POVERTY AND THE MISERY OF THE POOR IN THE GLOBAL SOUTH SERVES THE NEEDS OF THE GLOBAL NORTH IN THEIR COP26 AGENDA WHERE THE MISERY OF THE POOR IN THE GLOBAL SOUTH SERVES AS A SALES TOOL TO SELL THE COP26 AGENDA OF THE GLOBAL NORTH.

CLIMATE CHANGE IS COLONIALISM ALL OVER AGAIN

Colonialism - YouTube


POSTSCRIPT; THE CVF LIES YOUR COLONIAL MASTER TOLD YOU

THE CVF, “CLIMATE VULNERABLE FORUM” IS PRESENTED AS AN ACTIVE CLIMATE ACTION INITIATIVE OF THE POOR DECREPIT COUNTRIES OF THE FORMER COLONIES WITH THE CLAIM THAT THIS FORUM IS A CONSORTIUM OF FORMER COLONIES DEMANDING CLIMATE ACTION BECAUSE OF THE DISPROPORTIONATE CLIMATE IMPACT THEY HAVE TO BEAR. THIS IMAGE OF THE CVF IS A FALSEHOOD.

IN A RELATED POST ON THE MALDIVES WE NOTE THAT THE NEED OF THE GLOBAL NORTH FOR PITIFUL VICTIMS OF THEIR CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA HAD PRESENTED THE MALDIVES TO THE WORLD AS ONE OF THOSE POOR FORMER COLONIES THAT WAS BEING SUBMERGED BY THE SEA LEVEL RISE OF CLIMATE CHANGE. EXCEPT THAT HERE THE TABLES WERE TURNED BY THE MALDIVIANS SUCH THAT INSTEAD OF THE GLOBAL NORTH SELLING THE MISERY OF THE MALDIVIANS TO SELL CLIMATE CHANGE, THE MALDIVIANS USED THEIR SUDDEN GLOBAL EXPOSURE AND RELEVANCE TO SELL THEIR HONEYMOON COTTAGE VACATION BUSINESS WITH GREAT SUCCESS.

LINK TO THE MALDIVES POST: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/05/14/maldives-sinking/

IN THE END THE BIG WINNER OF THIS GAME IN WHICH THE WEST TRIED TO USE THE MALDIVES TO PUSH CLIMATE ACTION BECAME TURNED AROUND SUCH THAT THE MALDIVES WERE USING CLIMATE CHANGE TO SELL THEIR VACATION BUSINESS. HAVING TASTED SWEET FINANCIAL SUCCESS IN THIS ENDEAVOR, THE SMART MALDIVIANS THEN EXTENDED THEIR COUNTER MOVE BY FORMING A SUPPOSED ORGANIZATION OF POOR THIRD WORLD FORMER COLONIES TO DEMAND COMPENSATION FROM THE GLOBAL NORTH FOR THEIR MISERIES ATTRIBUTED TO THE CLIMATE CHANGE CAUSED BY THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION OF THE GLOBAL NORTH. THIS ORGANIZATION IS THE CVF. ITS INTERPRETATION AS A DEMAND OF THE GLOBAL SOUTH FOR CLIMATE ACTION SUCCESS AT COP26 IS A FALSEHOOD.

THE HARD SELL OF COP26 JUST KEEPS GETTING HARDER AND HARDER. IT IS AFTER ALL, THE 26TH ATTEMPT BY THE UN TO FORGE A GLOBAL CLIMATE ACTION AGREEMENT AFTER 25 FAILURES OF EXACTLY THIS SAME AGENDA. THE CLAIM BY CLIMATE SCIENCE THAT COP25 WAS A SUCCESS IS UNDONE BY COP26. IF COP25 WERE A SUCCESS WE WOULD NOT HAVE NEEDED A COP26.

Donald Trump Paris Agreement Withdraw Would Challenge World | Time

RELATED POST ON COP25: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/06/05/the-paris-agreement/

Children scavenging in garbage dump, Dhaka, Bangladesh Stock Photo - Alamy

QUESTION:

ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH CAN’T CO-EXIST.

DO YOU AGREE?

ANSWER;

YET IT TAKES ECONOMIC GROWTH TO GET TO THE WEALTH AND PROSPERITY AT WHICH HUMANS CAN DEVELOP THE ENVIRONMENTALISM VALUE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTALISM IS A RICH MAN’S GAME. YOU HAVE TO GET RICH FIRST BEFORE YOU CAN HAVE THE RICH MAN’S VALUE SYSTE3M. THE POOR ARE JUST TRYING TO SURVIVE FROM ONE DAY TO THE NEXT. THERE IS NO ENVIRONMENTALISM IN THAT CULTURE.

Poor People In Bangladesh: Poor People's Life

Australia warned climate crisis will 'wreak havoc' on economy if coal isn't  phased out | Climate change | The Guardian

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF A MEDIA REPORT THAT “A SENIOR UN OFFICIAL” HAS WARNED AUSTRALIA THAT IF THE COUNTRY DOES NOT PHASE OUT COAL FIRED POWER PLANTS BY 2030, THE CLIMATE CRISIS WILL WREAK HAVOC ON THE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY.

PART-1: WHAT THE GUARDIAN ARTICLE SAYS

A senior UN official has warned the climate crisis will “wreak havoc” across the Australian economy if coal is not rapidly phased out, and joined those explicitly calling for the Morrison government to adopt more ambitious emissions reduction goals.In a pre-recorded speech to an Australian National University forum to be held on Monday, Selwin Hart, the UN’s assistant secretary general for climate action and special advisor to the secretary general, reiterated calls for OECD countries such as Australia to stop using coal by 2030. Coalition’s misleading tactics will no longer cut it – the IPCC report shows our future depends on urgent climate action. Hart, a former top diplomat and climate official for Barbados, highlighted the extent to which the Morrison government has become isolated by resisting calls to set a net zero greenhouse gas emissions target for 2050, but said greater action this decade was just as important. He cited scientific advice that global emissions needed to be cut by 45% this decade to keep limiting global heating to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels within reach, and called for an increased commitment before the COP26 summit in Glasgow in November. National governments responsible for 73% of global emissions have now committed to net zero by mid-century. We urge Australia to join them as a matter of urgency. All Pacific small island nations have made this commitment. We welcome the 2050 net zero commitments of all states and territories of Australia. We also welcome the explicit support for 2050 net zero targets from peak business bodies such as the National Farmers Federation, the Business Council of Australia, and the Australian Industry Group, along with many of the country’s largest businesses. While crucial, these long-term national net zero commitments are only part of what is needed. It is essential they are backed by ambitious 2030 targets and clear plans to achieve them, otherwise we will not see the changes in the real economy we urgently need. The Morrison government has a 2030 target of a 26-28% cut in emissions compared with 2005 levels. The Coalition rejected advice from the Climate Change Authority that suggested it set a 45-65% target over that timeframe. On coal, Hart said market forces showed its days were numbered. He said investors were increasingly abandoning it in favour of renewables, which were now cheaper in most places” and the expectation coal assets would be stranded was hastening the decline. But the shift was not happening fast enough to avert a global climate catastrophe, he said.“We fully understand the role that coal and other fossil fuels have played in Australia’s economy, even if mining accounts for a small fraction – around 2% – of overall jobs. But it’s essential to have a broader, more honest and rational conversation about what is in Australia’s interests, because the bottom line is clear. If the world does not rapidly phase out coal, climate change will wreak havoc right across the Australian economy – from agriculture to tourism, and right across the services sector. Similarly, it will affect construction, housing and the property sector in a country where the vast majority live on or near a coastline. Australia’s targets are not sufficient” and the country should be considering a 50% cut in emissions by 2030. An Australian Conservation Foundation survey of 15,000 people released last week found a majority of people in every federal electorate believed the Morrison government should be doing more to tackle the climate crisis, and some Liberal MPs – notably Warren Entsch and Jason Falinski – have called for the 2030 emissions target to be increased. But some Nationals MPs remain strongly opposed to greater climate action. The deputy prime minister, Barnaby Joyce, said on Friday we would not yield to what he called “straight-out bullying” on the issue. Morrison has promised a long-term emissions strategy before the Glasgow summit in November, but not committed to lifting targets or new policies. The treasurer, Josh Frydenberg, recently told Guardian Australia “progress is being made behind closed doors” within the government on climate change, but said he was “very comfortable” with the 2030 target. Last week, the environment minister, Sussan Ley, greenlit the expansion of an underground coal mine north of Wollongong. It was the government’s first approval for additional coal mining since the federal court found she has a duty of care to protect young people from the climate crisis.Hart quoted a previous call by the UN secretary general, António Guterres, for wealthy countries to phase out coal by 2030 and other countries, which have had less opportunity to develop using fossil fuels, to stop using it by 2040. If adopted, this timetable will leave nearly a decade for Australia to ensure a just transition for its coal workers and others affected. We are at a critical juncture in the climate crisis. If G20 countries including Australia choose business-as-usual, climate change will soon send Australia’s high living standards up in flames. By contrast, if countries including Australia choose bold climate action, a new wave of prosperity, jobs, fairness and sustained economic growth is there for the taking. The latest assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found emissions were already affecting weather and climate extremes in every region across the globe, contributing to an increase in heatwaves, heavier rainfall events and more intense droughts and tropical cyclones. In Australia, average temperatures above land have increased by about 1.4C since 1910.

PART-2: CRITICAL COMMENTARY

THE COUNTRY OF AUSTRALIA OCCUPIES 7.692E6 SQUARE KM OF THE WORLD WITH A TOTAL GLOBAL SURFACE AREA OF 510E6 SQUARE KM. IN OTHER WORDS, AUSTRALIA IS 1.5% OF THE WORLD AND 5% OF THE WORLD’S LAND IN TERMS OF SURFACE AREA. THE THEORY OF ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING IS ABOUT THE ENTIRE GLOBE SUCH THAT THE RISE IN GLOBAL MEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND ITS DESTRUCTIVE IMPACTS MUST BE UNDERSTOOD IN THE GLOBAL CONTEXT. IT IS NOT POSSIBLE FOR GLOBAL WARMING IMPACTS TO HUNT OUT THE GUILTY PARTIES RESPONSIBLE FOR FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS TO CAUSE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ONLY IN THOSE AREAS.

IT SHOULD ALSO BE MENTIONED THAT AUSTRALIA’S FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS ARE A LITTLE MORE THAN 1% OF GLOBAL EMISSIONS.

THAT CLIMATE CHANGE WILL SEEK OUT THIS TINY CORNER OF THE WORLD THAT IS 1.5% OF THE WORLD AND 5% OF THE WORLD’S LAND WITH 1.1% OF THE WORLD’S FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS TO PUNISH THE COUNTRY FOR BURNING COAL IS A CHILDISH FAIRY TALE AND INCONSISTENT WITH THE THEORY OF ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING. AND YET, IT IS THESE SAME IPCC LUNATICS THAT HAVE PUT THEMSELVES IN CHARGE AS THE MASTERS OF THE WORLD THAT WILL DICTATE WHAT WE CAN AND CANNOT DO WITH THE CLAIM THAT WE WILL SURVIVE IF WE OBEY AND BE DESTROYED IF WE DON’T. THE CLAIM BY THE UN THAT GLOBAL WARMING WILL SEEK OUT THIS TINY CORNER OF THE WORLD WITH CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS BECAUSE THEY BURNED COAL DISCREDITS THE CLIMATE MOVEMENT AND EXPOSES IT AS A FARCE.

Idiots in Charge: Lies, Trick, Misdeeds, and Other Political Untruthiness:  Gregory, Leland: 0050837250826: Amazon.com: Books

Craig Rucker, Author at CFACT

THE CLIMATE MOVEMENT IS A BUSINESS ENTERPRISE THAT PROFITS FROM PEOPLE’S MISERIES WHETHER WILDFIRES, STORMS, FLOODS, EXTREME HEAT, EXTREME COLD, OR DROUGHT. THEY PRAY FOR MISERY AND ARE ALWAYS OUT LOOKING FOR MISERY, NOT TO HELP THE DISAFFECTED, BUT TO SELL THEIR MISERY

UCSUSA "Union of Concerned Scientists" seem more concerned with funding  frivolous lawsuits - Government Accountability & Oversight, P.C.

AND AS FATE WOULD HAVE IT, TONIGHT, RIGHT UNDER THE EMAIL FROM CRAIG IS AN EMAIL FROM THE UNION OF CONCERNED SCIENTISTS, THE CLIMATE WARRIORS.

Help Combat the Health Risks of Extreme Heat. Extreme heat kills more people in the United States each year than any other weather event, and it is becoming more frequent, longer-lasting, and more severe because of climate change. The threat of heat in conjunction with other risks we have seen this summer, wildfires, floods, and hurricanes—endangers all of us, especially communities without sufficient resources to respond to these disasters. As the world warms, extreme heat will take a greater toll on the health, lives, and livelihoods of the 32 million outdoor workers in the United States. But, heat illness and deaths are preventable through outreach and intervention.

SO YOU DON’T FORGET, SEND IN YOUR DONATION BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. (in so many words).

Culture, bereavement, and psychiatry - The Lancet

How Arctic warming can trigger cold waves in North America – a new study  makes the connection

THE 2021 COLD WAVE OF NORTH AMERICA HAS BEEN ATTRIBUTED TO ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING AND IS THEREFORE THOUGHT TO BE A CREATION OF OUR USE OF FOSSIL FUELS.

2014 North American Cold Wave

WHAT THE SOURCE ARTICLES SAY

WASHINGTON POST: LINK: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/09/03/climate-change-arctic-texas-cold/

In a study released Thursday in the journal Science, the devastating Texas cold wave in February is linked to a stretching of the polar vortex in the stratosphere miles above ground level. This stretching mode, only recently categorized, has become more common over the last 40 years, the paper finds, and the increase may be related to human-caused climate change.

BBC: LINK: https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-58425526

Arctic

A new study shows that increases in extreme winter weather in parts of the US are linked to accelerated warming of the Arctic. The scientists found that heating in the region ultimately disturbed the circular pattern of winds known as the polar vortex. This allowed colder winter weather to flow down to the US, notably in the Texas cold wave in February. The authors say that warming will see more cold winters in some locations.

A SOURCE RESEARCH PAPER FOR THESE ARTICLES:

Matthias, Vivien, and Marlene Kretschmer. “The influence of stratospheric wave reflection on North American cold spells.” Monthly Weather Review 148.4 (2020): 1675-1690. ABSTRACT: While the relationship between the Arctic sea ice loss and midlatitude winter climate has been well discussed, especially on the seasonal mean scale, it remains unclear whether the Arctic sea ice condition affects the predictability of North American cold weather on the subseasonal time scale. Here we find that, in the presence of low Barents-Kara Sea (BKS) sea ice, sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) can favor surface cold spells over North America at the subseasonal timescale based on observations and model experiments. A persistent ridge of wave-2 pattern emerges over the Bering Sea-Gulf of Alaska several weeks after the SSW onset, with a coherent structure from the stratosphere to the surface, which, in turn, is conducive to synoptic cold air outbreaks in Canada and midwestern USA. This highlights a planetary wave pathway relating to BKS sea ice changes, by which the stratospheric polar vortex impacts the regional surface temperature on the subseasonal scale. In contrast, this mechanism does not occur with positive BKS sea ice anomaly. These findings help to improve the subseasonal predictability over North America, especially under the background of rapid change of Arctic sea ice in a warming world.

CRITICAL COMMENTARY

THE THEORY OF ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING IS THAT THE LONG TERM GLOBAL IMPACT OF BURNING FOSSIL FUELS OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME CAUSES A LONG TERM RISING TREND IN GLOBAL MEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE (GMST) AT TIME SCALES OF 40 YEARS OR ,LONGER. CLIMATE AND WEATHER EVENTS THAT ARE LOCALIZED AND NOT GLOBAL OR THAT OCCUR AT BRIEF TIME SCALES OF DECADAL OR LESS CANNOT BE UNDERSTOOD IN TERMS OF THIS THEORY; BUT MUST BE UNDERSTOOD IN TERMS OF INTERNAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/07/16/the-internal-variability-issue/

climate internal variability is just residual variance from ...

AS A DEMONSTRATION IT IS SHOWN IN A RELATED POST: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/01/11/global-warming-dec2020/ , THAT LONG TERM WARMING TRENDS IN GMST CONTAIN DECADAL TRENDS THAT ARE VOLATILE AND RANDOM. SAMPLE IMAGES FROM THE RELATED POST FOR GLOBAL MEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND ARCTIC MEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE ARE REPRODUCED BELOW.

GLOBAL

ARCTIC

CONCLUSION

IN VIEW OF THE ARGUMENTS PRESENTED ABOVE, WE PROPOSE THAT THE APPROPRIATE EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FOR THE THEORY THAT GLOBAL WARMING INCREASES COLD WAVE EVENTS IN THE NORTH AMERICA IS THE TIME SERIES FOR A LONG TERM TREND OF 40 YEARS OR MORE IN SUCH COLD EVENTS THAT SHOWS A STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT RISING TREND.

NO SINGLE EVENT NOR A CLUSTER OF EVENTS CAN SERVE AS EVIDENCE FOR A THEORY THAT GLOBAL WARMING, ACTING THROUGH ARCTIC WARMING, IS CAUSING A RISING TREND IN NORTH AMERICAN COLD WAVE EVENTS. SCIENTISTS WHO MAKE SUCH A CLAIM ARE EITHER DISHONEST OR SUFFER FROM A WEAKNESS IN STATISTICS EDUCATION. LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/05/18/climate-science-vs-statistics/

confusing middle class statistics | JB Shreve & the End of History

THAT A CAUSATION MECHANISM CAN BE PROPOSED FOR AN OBSERVED PHENOMENON POST HOC {AFTER THE FACT} DOES NOT SERVE AS EVIDENCE FOR THE PROPOSED CAUSATION. IT REMAINS A THEORY UNTIL VERIFIED BY THE DATA IN AN UNBIASED AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS.

MORE TO THE POINT, A THEORY DERIVED FROM THE DATA CANNOT BE TESTED WITH THE SAME DATA. THAT KIND OF EMPIRICAL RESEARCH SUFFERS FROM A CIRCULAR REASONING FALLACY COMMONLY KNOWN AS THE TEXAS SHARP SHOOTER FALLACY WHERE YOU SHOOT FIRST AND SELECT YOUR TARGET LATER.

Origin of the Texas Sharpshooter | Bayesian Spectacles



  • chaamjamal: Thank you for your input
  • Ruben Leon: When your mind is made up you ignore the data and try to justify the bias you acquired as a juvenile and never questioned. The fact that the Antar
  • chaamjamal: Thank you for raising these interesting points. We live in strange times. Some day we may figure this out.