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COP26 EMISSION GAP REPORT WRITTEN BY THE UNITED NATIONS ENVIRONMENTAL PROGRAM


With climate change intensifying and scientists warning that humanity is running out of time to limit global warming to 1.5°C over pre-industrial levels, 2021 has been a fraught year for the planet. The Emissions Gap Report 2021: The Heat Is On is the 12th edition in an annual series that provides an overview of the difference between where greenhouse emissions are predicted to be in 2030 and where they should be to avert the worst impacts of climate change.

The Emissions Gap Report 2021 shows that new national climate pledges combined with other mitigation measures put the world on track for a global temperature rise of 2.7°C by the end of the century. That is well above the goals of the Paris climate agreement and would lead to catastrophic changes in the Earth’s climate.

To keep global warming below 1.5°C this century, the aspirational goal of the Paris Agreement, the world needs to halve annual greenhouse gas emissions in the next eight years. If implemented effectively, net-zero emissions pledges could limit warming to 2.2°C, closer to the well-below 2°C goal of the Paris Agreement.

However, many national climate plans delay action until after 2030. The reduction of methane emissions from the fossil fuel, waste and agriculture sectors could help close the emissions gap and reduce warming in the short term, the report finds. Carbon markets could also help slash emissions. But that would only happen if rules are clearly defined and target actual reductions in emissions, while being supported by arrangements to track progress and provide transparency.

TRANSLATION INTO PLAIN ENGLISH

THE 26TH ATTEMPT BY THE UNEP THAT HAD CLAIMED BACK IN 1995 THAT THEY COULD REPEAT THEIR MONTREAL PROTOCOL SUCCESS IN THE CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUE IS PROVEN FALSE AFTER 26 FAILURES. THE UN BUREAUCRATS COULD NOT AND STILL CANNOT FATHOM THE ENORMOUS DIFFERENCE BETWEEN CHANGING REFRIGERANTS AND OVERHAULING THE WORLD’S ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE. THE GREATER ISSUE IS, AS EXPLAINED IN A RELATED POST, THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL SUCCESS WAS THE IMAGINARY SOLUTION TO A NON-EXISTENT PROBLEM. LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/12/27/the-hole-in-the-sky/

THE HISTORY OF COP FAILS: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/06/05/the-paris-agreement/

EXCERPT

Amazon Rainforest Fire: Why Amazon Forest Is Lungs Of The Planet

THE MATH IN TERMS OF FOREST AREA

THERE ARE 8.7E9 HECTARES OF LAND ON EARTH WHERE TREES CAN BE GROWN.

BUT ONLY 5.5E9 HECTARES HAVE TREES.

OF THAT 5.5E9 HECTARES, 5.26E8 HECTARES ARE IN THE AMAZON RAIN FOREST

THIS MEANS THAT THE AMAZON RAIN FOREST CONTAINS 9.56% OF THE WORLD’S FORESTS

THIS MEANS THAT NOT TAKING THE OCEAN INTO ACCOUNT THE LUNGS OF THE EARTH CARRIES OUT 9.56% OF THE WORLD’S PHOTOSYNTHESIS.

THE OCEAN CARRIES OUT 50% TO 80% OF THE WORLD’S PHOTOSYNTHESIS OR 65% ON AVERAGE.

THEREFORE, THE AMAZON LUNGS OF THE EARTH CARRIES OUT 9.56% of 35% or 3.35% OF THE WORLD’S PHOTOSYNTHESIS.

THE MATH IN TERM OF THE NUMBER OF TREES

THERE ARE 39E10 TREES IN THE AMAZON RAINFOREST LUNGS OF THE EARTH

THERE ARE 880E10 TREES IN THE WORLD

THEREFORE, THE AMAZON RAINFOREST CONTAINS 39/880 OR 4.43% OF THE WORLD’S TREES.

THEREFORE, WITHOUT CONSIDERATION OF OCEAN PHOTOSYNTHESIS THE AMAZON LUNGS OF THE EARTH CARRIES OUT 4.43% OF THE WORLD’S LAND PHOTOSYNTHESIS.

WHEN WE TAKE THE OCEAN INTO ACCOUNT, THE AMAZON LUNGS OF THE EARTH CARRIES OUT 1.55% OF THE WORLD’S PHOTOSYNTHESIS.

Damaged Amazon rainforest teetering on the brink
WHAT STUDENTS ARE TAUGHT:

CUTTING TREES IN THE AMAZON IS THE END OF THE LUNGS OF THE PLANET

CONCLUSION:

THE REAL LUNGS OF THE EARTH IS THE OCEAN BUT SUCH IS THE ECO WACKO ACTIVISM OF ENVRONMENTALISM TEACHERS, THAT MANY OF THEIR STUDENTS ARE READY TO GO TO WAR WITH BRAZIL TO SAVE THE PLANET.

Teacher Unions Take on the Climate Crisis - Rethinking Schools
ENVIRONMENTAL ACTIVISM OF STUDENTS

Amazon.com: Teaching as Activism: Equity Meets Environmentalism:  0884403603026: Tripp, Peggy, Muzzin, Linda: Books

BOTTOM LINE: #1: MOST OF THE WORLD’S PHOTOSYNTHESIS IS IN THE OCEAN SO FRETTING ABOUT LAND PHOTOSYNTHESIS AS A WAY TO CONTROL HUMAN CAUSED GLOBAL WARMING DOES NOT MAKE A LOT OF SENSE.

MORE IMPORTANTLY, THE ISSUE IN HUMAN CAUSED GLOBAL WARMING IS FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS WITH CARBON MILLIONS OF YEARS OLD THAT DOES NOT BELONG IN THE CURRENT ACCOUNT OF THE CARBON CYCLE. THE CLIMATE ACTION SOUGHT BY CLIMATE SCIENCE IS THAT HUMANS MUST STOP BURNING FOSSIL FUELS. THERE IS NO ROLE HERE FOR CARBON CYCLE INTERVENTIONS.

THE CARBON CYCLE INTERVENTION PROPOSITION THAT CONTINUED FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS CAN BE COMPENSATED BY CARBON CYCLE INTERVENTIONS IS INCONSISTENT WITH CLIMATE SCIENCE AND INCONSISTENT WITH THE DATA AS SEEN IN THE RELATED POSTS LINKED BELOW.

RELATED POST#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/06/19/vegandiet/

RELATED POST#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/02/25/net-zero/

RELATED POST#3: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/11/03/the-net-zero-fallacy/

RELATED POST#4: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/09/30/cer/

THIS POST IS A PRESENTATION OF THE CASE THAT THE ONLY ISSUE IN THE CLIMATE CHANGE ALARM OF THE THEORY OF ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING (AGW) IS HUMAN CAUSE AND NOT THE CLAIMED HARMFUL IMPACTS OF WARMING. THIS IS BECAUSE THE IMPACTS OF WARMING WOULD BE THE SAME REGARDLESS OF CAUSEWHETHER NATURAL CLIMATE CHANGE OR HUMAN CAUSED. THE OVERWHELMING DEPENDENCE OF CLIMATE SCIENCE ON HARMFUL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS AS THE RATIONALE FOR CLIMATE ACTION IS NON-SENSICAL BECAUSE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, NO MATTER HOW HARMFUL, ARE A CREATION OF WARMING NO MATTER WHAT THE CAUSE.

THE NATURAL GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE CYCLES OF OF INTERGLACIALS ARE DESCRIBED IN RELATED POSTS FOR THE HOLOCENE AND THE EEMIAN INTERGLACIAL {LINKED BELOW}AND THERE WE FIND THAT INTERGLACIALS ARE NEVER AT CONSTANT TEMPERATURE SUCH THAT A WARMING TREND WOULD REQUIRE HUMAN CAUSE TO EXPLAIN.

INSTEAD WHAT WE SEE IN THE DATA IS THAT INTERGLACIAL TEMPERATURES ARE CONSTANTLY GOING THROUGH CHAOTIC ALTERNATING WARMING AND COOLING CYCLES ALWAYS AT CENTENNIAL TO MILLENNIAL TIME SCALES.

IN THIS HISTORY OF THE HOLOCENE, THE CURRENT WARMING CAN BE UNDERSTOOD AS THE NATURAL WARMING CYCLE THAT FOLLOWS THE NATURAL LITTLE ICE AGE COOLING CYCLE.

IT IS SIGNIFICANT THAT THE CURRENT WARMING CYCLE WAS NOT FORECAST FROM HUMAN ACTIVITY THAT COULD CAUSE SUCH A THING BUT WAS CLAIMED FOR HUMAN CAUSE AFTER THE FACT.

EEMIAN LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/12/21/eemian/

HOLOCENE LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/06/11/chaoticholocene/

HOLOCENE LINK#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/10/05/a-quora-question-3/

HOLOCENE LINK#3: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/10/05/a-quora-question-3/

HOLOCENE LINK#4: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/05/12/human-cause-in-the-anthropocene/

THAT THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION HAPPENS TO FALL IN BETWEEN THESE TEMPERATURE CYCLES OF THE HOLOCENE CANNOT BE TAKEN AS EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE OF HUMAN CAUSE PARTICULARLY SO SINCE CLIMATE SCIENCE IS UNABLE TO RELATE THESE EVENTS IN TERMS OF TIMING.

CLIMATE SCIENCE CLAIMS A CRITICAL ROLE IN THEIR THEORY FOR “THE PRE-INDUSTRIAL YEAR” WHEN THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION STARTED GLOBAL WARMING BUT THEY DON’T KNOW WHEN THAT PRE-INDUSTRIAL YEAR WAS EXACTLY AS SHOWN BELOW. YET, THEY PROPOSE A CRITICAL AMOUNT OF WARMING THAT MUST NOT BE EXCEEDED AS MEASURED “SINCE THAT CRITICAL PRE INDUSTRIAL YEAR AND REFERRED TO AS “SINCE PRE-INDUSTRIAL”.

QUESTION: WHEN DID HUMAN CAUSED GLOBAL WARMING START?

ANSWER: CALLENDAR 1938: IT STARTED IN 1900, HANSEN1988, IT STARTED IN 1950, IPCC2001, IT STARTED IN 1750, IPCC 2015: IT STARTED IN 1850, NASA 2020: IT STARTED IN 1950.

ETCW: YET ANOTHER UNRESOLVED ISSUE IN THIS TIMING PROPOSITION IS THE ETCW MYSTERY IN CLIMATE SCIENCE WHERE “EARLY TWENTIETH CENTURY WARMING” (ETCW) 1900 TO 1950 REMAINS UNEXPLAINED.

OTHER ISSUES: WEAKNESSES IN THE CAUSATION HYPOTHESIS INVOLVE ISSUES IN EQUILIBRIUM CLIMATE SENSITIVITY UNCERTAINTY AND THE TCRE MATHEMATICAL INCONSISTENCY DESCRIBED IN THE DOCUMENTS LINKED BELOW.

LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/05/10/the-climate-sensitivity-issue/

LINK#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/05/06/tcre/

LINK#3: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/08/26/a-mathematical-inconsistency/

LINK#4: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/05/31/the-carbon-cycle-measurement-problem/

LINK#5: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/06/10/a-monte-carlo-simulation-of-the-carbon-cycle/

LINK#6: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/10/05/rising-atmospheric-co2/

LINK#7: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/05/18/climate-science-vs-statistics/

Tip of the Week: What's with all the inconsistency? | Change ...

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION

WITH REGARD TO EVIDENCE OF HUMAN CAUSE, A PECULIAR CLAIM MADE BY CLIMATE SCIENCE IS THAT HUMAN CAUSE IS PROVEN BY THE SEVERITY OF THE WARMING THAT IS THE STRONGEST AND HOTTEST IN THE LAST 2,000 YEARS. THERE ARE TWO WEAKNESSES IN THIS CLAIM. THE FIRST IS THAT THE HOLOCENE IS ABOUT 9,000 YEARS OLD AND THE LIMITATION OF THE COMPARISON PERIOD TO 2,000 YEARS INVALIDATES THE ESSENCE OF THE CLAIM. MORE IMPORTANTLY, THE INTENSITY OF THE WARMING DOES NOT PROVE HUMAN CAUSE. THROUGHOUT THE HOLOCENE WE HAVE ALTERNATING WARMING AND COOLING CYCLES AT MILLENNIAL AND CENTENNIAL TIME SCALES BUT THEY ARE ALL DIFFERENT WITH SOME STRONGER AND HOTTER THAN OTHERS. THESE DIFFERENCES DO NOT IMPLY HUMAN CAUSE AS THEY ARE NATURAL AND THERE IS NO BASIS FOR THE EXPECTATION THAT INTERGLACIAL TEMPERATURE CYCLES SHOULD BE OF EQUAL SEVERITY. THESE KINDS OF COMICAL INCONSISTENCIES IN CLIMATE SCIENCE CAN BE UNDERSTOOD IN THE WAY ACTIVISM CORRUPTS SCIENCE AS DESCRIBED IN A RELATED POST: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/02/03/hidden-hand/

THE NEED FOR FEARFUL CLIMATE IMPACTS TO PUSH THE CLIMATE ACTION PROPOSITION OF CLIMATE SCIENCE IS ILLOGICAL AND WITHOUT SUBSTANCE IN THE ABSENCE OF EVIDENCE OF HUMAN CAUSE BECAUSE CLIMATE ACTION IS IRRELEVANT WITHOUT HUMAN CAUSE. THIS ODDITY OF THE CLIMATE MOVEMENT IS BEST UNDERSTOOD IN TERMS OF THEIR INABILITY TO PRESENT CONVINCING EVIDENCE OF HUMAN CAUSE. THIS SITUATION LEAVES THEM WITH ONLY THEIR FEAR APPEAL MOVEMENT FOR CLIMATE ACTION BASED ON THE HARM THAT CLIMATE IMPACTS CAN DO IF CLIMATE ACTION IS NOT TAKEN.

IN THE ABSENCE OF EVIDENCE FOR HUMAN CAUSE THE LOGICAL RESPONSE TO GLOBAL WARMING IS ADAPTATION AND GEOENGINEERING STRATEGIES. THE USE OF FEARFUL CLIMATE IMPACTS AND A FEAR APPEAL MOVEMENT TO PUSH CLIMATE ACTION OBSTRUCTS THE RATIONAL POLICY OF ADAPTTION AND GEOENGINEERING AND IN THAT RESPECT, THE CLIMATE MOVEMENT THAT IS PUSHING CLIMATE ACTION BY WAY OF FEAR APPEAL ACTIVISM IS A CRIME AGAINST HUMANITY.

BOTTOM LINE: NO DEMAND FOR CLIMATE ACTION CAN BE MADE WITHOUT CONVINCING EVIDENCE OF HUMAN CAUSE PARTICULARLY SO SINCE (#1) NATURAL GLOBAL WARMING IS NORMAL IN INTERGLACIALS, AND (#2) THE CLIMATE ACTION DEMANDED IS COSTLY.

RELATED POST ON CLIMATE ADAPTATION: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/10/13/climate-change-fear-appeal/

RELATED POST ON GEOENGINEERING: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/03/25/climate-fearology-vs-geoengineering/

CLIMATE ACTION ACTIVISM AS EXPLAINED BY CLIMATE SCIENCE

A LIST OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS USED CONSTANTLY AND REPEATEDLY BY CLIMATE SCIENCE IS PROVIDED ONLINE BY THE PEOPLE AT THE “BEFORE THE FLOOD” SITE: LINK: https://www.beforetheflood.com/explore/the-crisis/worst-impacts/ . A brief summary is provided below.

Georges Cuvier, French zoologist - Stock Image - H403/0525 - Science Photo  Library
BARON GEORGE CUVIER

PART-1: THE ORIGIN OF CATASTROPHISM

RELATED POST ON OUR INNER NEED TO FEAR: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/09/20/our-inner-need-to-fear/

IN THE 18TH CENTURY, NATURALIST, GEOLOGIST, AND BIOLOGIST, BARON GEORGE CUVIER OF FRANCE, DISCOVERED SOMETHING AMAZING. HE DUG DEEP INTO THE EARTH AND STUDIED THE SIGNATURES OF LIFE FORMS IN SUCCESSIVE STRATA OF THE DIG AND MADE AN AMAZING DISCOVERY. FROM ONE STRATUM TO THE NEXT HE FOUND COMPLETELY DIFFERENT FOSSIL FORMS OF LIFE. THE DATA IMPLIED A CATASTROPHIC END OF LIFE IN EACH STRATUM WITH AN EMERGENCE OF LIFE ON EARTH ALL OVER AGAIN IN THE NEXT STRATUM.

THIS DISCOVERY IS THE ORIGIN OF CATASTROPHSISM, THE IDEA THAT LIFE ON EARTH EMERGES AND FLOURISHES AND THEN MEETS A CATASTROPHIC END TO CREATE A DEAD ZONE WITH LIFE EMERGING ALL OVER AGAIN AND THEN GOING THROUGH YET ANOTHER CATASTROPHE. THE CUVIER HYPOTHESIS IMPLIES THAT THOUGH WE ARE HERE ENJOYING LIFE IN THE GREEN VALLEY WITH THE BIRDS AND THE BEES AND THE FLOWERS AND THE TREES AND THE MOON UP ABOVE AND A THING CALLED THE INTERNET, IT’S ONLY FOR A WHILE UNTIL THE CATASTROPHE COMES AND IT’S ALL GONE INTO A DEAD ZONE FROM WHICH LIFE WILL HAVE TO EMERGE ALL OVER AGAIN. LIFE ON EARTH IS NOT A ONE SHOT DEAL. IT IS A CYCLE OF LIFE AND CATASTROPHE. THIS IS THE ORIGIIN OF CATASTROPHISM. THANK YOU MONSIEUR CUVIER.

A USEFUL REFERENCE IS THE BOOK “MEGADISASTERS” BY PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS: LINK TO SOURCE: https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691133508/megadisasters

HERE IS A BRIEF SUMMARY OF WHAT IT SAYS

Can we predict cataclysmic disasters such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, or stock market crashes? The Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004 claimed more than 200,000 lives. Hurricane Katrina killed over 1,800 people and devastated the city of New Orleans. The recent global financial crisis has cost corporations and ordinary people around the world billions of dollars. Megadisasters is a book that asks why catastrophes such as these catch us by surprise, and reveals the history and groundbreaking science behind efforts to forecast major disasters and minimize their destruction. Each chapter of this exciting and eye-opening book explores a particular type of cataclysmic event and the research surrounding it, including earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, hurricanes, rapid climate change, collisions with asteroids or comets, pandemics, and financial crashes. Florin Diacu tells the harrowing true stories of people impacted by these terrible events, and of the scientists racing against time to predict when the next big disaster will strike. He describes the mathematical models that are so critical to understanding the laws of nature and foretelling potentially lethal phenomena, the history of modeling and its prospects for success in the future, and the enormous challenges to scientific prediction posed by the chaos phenomenon, which is the high instability that underlies many processes around us. Yielding new insights into the perils that can touch every one of us, Megadisasters shows how the science of predicting disasters holds the promise of a safer and brighter tomorrow.

PART-2: SO WHAT?

THE POINT HERE IN THIS CITATION IS THAT WE MODERN HUMANS CARRY THE CUVIER CATASTROPPHISM IDEA DEEP IN OUR HEART AND IN OUR PSYCHE BUT WITH AN INTERPRETATION THAT OVERLOOKS THE GEOLOGICALLY LONG TIME SCALE AND THE COMPLETE DESTRUCTIVENESS OF LIFE ON EARTH IN THE CUVIER DATA SUCH THAT NATURAL DISASTERS, SUCH AS A PARTICULARLY DESTRUCTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE, CAN TRIGGER CUVIER CATASTROPHSISM DEEP IN OUR HEARTS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FEAR OF THE END OF LIFE ON EARTH AND MAYBE THE END OF THE PLANET ITSELF.

IN THIS CONTEXT, WE PROPOSE THAT MODERN FEARMONGERING OBSESSIONS SUCH AS THE THE ANTHROPOCENE, THE POPULATION BOMB END OF THE WORLD, THE 1970S GLOBAL COOLING END OF THE WORLD, AND THE CURRENT GLOBAL WARMING END OF THE WORLD, OF OTHERWISE INTELLIGENT AND CIVILIZED HUMANS CAN BE UNDERSTOOD IN THE CONTEXT OF A CATASTROPHISM GENE THAT LIVES DEEP IN OUR PSYCHE AND OVERCOMES RATIONAL THOUGHT AND THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD. THE VEXING ISSUE WITH THE GROSS MISMATCH OF THE TIME SCALE OF CUVIER CATASTROPHISM TO ITS APPPLICATION IN THINGS LIKE CLIMATE CHANGE HAS BEEN SOLVED WITH THE THE WORD “GRADUAL” SO THAT THINGS LIKE ALARMING FORECASTS OF HUMAN POPULATION OR HUMAN ACTIVITY OR BIOLOGY OR GEOLOGY OR CLIMATE ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME SCALE WITH THE WORD “GRADUAL”. IN THIS CONSTRUCTION, WE CAN UNDERSTAND THE CLIMATE MOVEMENT AS GRADUAL CATASTROPHISM.

BOTTOM LINE: WE HUMANS NEED TO LIVE IN FEAR AND SO THEREFORE WE NEED TO FIND THINGS TO FEAR.

The New Catastrophism: The Importance of the Rare Event in Geological  History: Ager, Derek: 9780521483582: Amazon.com: Books
Supervolcano: The Catastrophic Event That Changed the Course of Human  History eBook by MARIE JONES | Rakuten Kobo

Is Catastrophism a science?

THIS POST IS A LIST OF LINKS TO THE GEOLOGICAL FEATURES OF THE ARCTIC THAT CAN CREATE GLOBAL WARMING FEARS.

LINK#1: THE ARCTIC OCEAN WARMS FROM BELOW: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/12/08/the-arctic-ocean-warms-from-below/

LINK#2: SOME GEOLOGCAL FEATURES OF THE ARCTIC: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/02/27/geological-features-of-the-arctic/

LINK#3: GEOLOGY OF THE ARCTIC OCEAN FLOOR: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/07/01/arctic/

LINK#4: THE GREENLAND ICELAND MANTE PLUME: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/10/30/the-greenland-iceland-mantle-plume/

LINK#5: CLIMATE SCIENCE SAYS GLOBAL WARMING CAUSES VOLCANIC ERUPTION: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/05/21/global-warming-causes-volcanic-eruption-2010/

ARCTIC GEOLOGY BIBLIOGRAPHY

  1. Fahnestock, Mark, et al. “High geothermal heat flow, basal melt, and the origin of rapid ice flow in central Greenland.” Science 294.5550 (2001): 2338-2342. Age-depth relations from internal layering reveal a large region of rapid basal melting in Greenland. Melt is localized at the onset of rapid ice flow in the large ice stream that drains north off the summit dome and other areas in the northeast quadrant of the ice sheet. Locally, high melt rates indicate geothermal fluxes 15 to 30 times continental background. The southern limit of melt coincides with magnetic anomalies and topography that suggest a volcanic origin.
  2. Rezvanbehbahani, Soroush, et al. “Predicting the geothermal heat flux in Greenland: A machine learning approach.” Geophysical Research Letters 44.24 (2017): 12-271. Geothermal heat flux (GHF) is a crucial boundary condition for making accurate predictions of ice sheet mass loss, yet it is poorly known in Greenland due to inaccessibility of the bedrock. Here we use a machine learning algorithm on a large collection of relevant geologic features and global GHF measurements and produce a GHF map of Greenland that we argue is within ∼15% accuracy. The main features of our predicted GHF map include a large region with high GHF in central‐north Greenland surrounding the NorthGRIP ice core site, and hot spots in the Jakobshavn Isbræ catchment, upstream of Petermann Gletscher, and near the terminus of Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden glacier. Our model also captures the trajectory of Greenland movement over the Icelandic plume by predicting a stripe of elevated GHF in central‐east Greenland. Finally, we show that our model can produce substantially more accurate predictions if additional measurements of GHF in Greenland are provided. FULL TEXT: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017GL075661
  3. van der Veen, Cornelis J., et al. “Subglacial topography and geothermal heat flux: Potential interactions with drainage of the Greenland ice sheet.” Geophysical research letters 34.12 (2007). Many of the outlet glaciers in Greenland overlie deep and narrow trenches cut into the bedrock. It is well known that pronounced topography intensifies the geothermal heat flux in deep valleys and attenuates this flux on mountains. Here we investigate the magnitude of this effect for two subglacial trenches in Greenland. Heat flux variations are estimated for idealized geometries using solutions for plane slopes derived by Lachenbruch (1968). It is found that for channels such as the one under Jakobshavn Isbræ, topographic effects may increase the local geothermal heat flux by as much as 100%.
  4. Greve, Ralf. “Relation of measured basal temperatures and the spatial distribution of the geothermal heat flux for the Greenland ice sheet.” Annals of Glaciology 42 (2005): 424-432The thermomechanical, three-dimensional ice-sheet model SICOPOLIS is applied to the Greenland ice sheet. Simulations over two glacial–interglacial cycles are carried out, driven by a climatic forcing interpolated between present conditions and Last Glacial Maximum anomalies. Based on the global heat-flow representation by Pollack and others (1993), we attempt to constrain the spatial pattern of the geothermal heat flux by comparing simulation results to direct measurements of basal temperatures at the GRIP, NorthGRIP, Camp Century and Dye 3 ice-core locations. The heat-flux map shows an increasing trend from west to east, a high-heat-flux anomaly around NorthGRIP with values up to 135 mWm–2 and a low-heat-flux anomaly around Dye 3 with values down to 20 mW m–2. Validation is provided by the generally good fit between observed and measured ice thicknesses. Residual discrepancies are most likely due to deficiencies of the input precipitation rate and further variability of the geothermal heat flux not captured here.
  5. Smith‐Johnsen, Silje, et al. “Sensitivity of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream to geothermal heat.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface 125.1 (2020): e2019JF005252. Recent observations of ice flow surface velocities have helped improve our understanding of basal processes on Greenland and Antarctica, though these processes still constitute some of the largest uncertainties driving ice flow change today. The Northeast Greenland Ice Stream is driven largely by basal sliding, believed to be related to subglacial hydrology and the availability of heat. Characterization of the uncertainties associated with Northeast Greenland Ice Stream is crucial for constraining Greenland’s potential contribution to sea level rise in the upcoming centuries. Here, we expand upon past work using the Ice Sheet System Model to quantify the uncertainties in models of the ice flow in the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream by perturbing the geothermal heat flux. Utilizing a subglacial hydrology model simulating sliding beneath the Greenland Ice Sheet, we investigate the sensitivity of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream ice flow to various estimates of geothermal heat flux, and implications of basal heat flux uncertainties on modeling the hydrological processes beneath Greenland’s major ice stream. We find that the uncertainty due to sliding at the bed is 10 times greater than the uncertainty associated with internal ice viscosity. Geothermal heat flux dictates the size of the area of the subglacial drainage system and its efficiency. The uncertainty of ice discharge from the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream to the ocean due to uncertainties in the geothermal heat flux is estimated at 2.10 Gt/yr. This highlights the urgency in obtaining better constraints on the highly uncertain subglacial hydrology parameters.
  6. Martos, Yasmina M., et al. “Geothermal heat flux reveals the Iceland hotspot track underneath Greenland.” Geophysical research letters 45.16 (2018): 8214-8222. Curie depths beneath Greenland are revealed by spectral analysis of data from the World Digital Magnetic Anomaly Map 2. A thermal model of the lithosphere then provides a corresponding geothermal heat flux map. This new map exhibits significantly higher frequency but lower amplitude variation than earlier heat flux maps and provides an important boundary condition for numerical ice‐sheet models and interpretation of borehole temperature profiles. In addition, it reveals new geologically significant features. Notably, we identify a prominent quasi‐linear elevated geothermal heat flux anomaly running northwest–southeast across Greenland. We interpret this feature to be the relic of the passage of the Iceland hotspot from 80 to 50 Ma. The expected partial melting of the lithosphere and magmatic underplating or intrusion into the lower crust is compatible with models of observed satellite gravity data and recent seismic observations. Our geological interpretation has implications for the geodynamic evolution of Greenland https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GL078289
  7. Artemieva, Irina M. “Lithosphere thermal thickness and geothermal heat flux in Greenland from a new thermal isostasy method.” Earth-Science Reviews 188 (2019): 469-481. Lithosphere thermal structure in Greenland is poorly known and models based on seismic and magnetic data are inconsistent, while growing awareness in the fate of the ice sheet in Greenland requires reliable constraints on geothermal heat flux (GHF) from the Earth’s interior in the region where conventional heat flux measurements are nearly absent. The lithosphere structure of Greenland remains controversial, while its geological evolution is constrained by direct observations in the narrow ice-free zone along the coasts. The effect of the Iceland hotspot on the lithosphere structure is also debated. Here I describe a new thermal isostasy method which I use to calculate upper mantle temperature anomalies, lithosphere thickness, and GHF in Greenland from seismic data on the Moho depth, topography and ice thickness. To verify the model results, the predicted GHF values are compared to available measurements and show a good agreement. Thick (200–270 km) cratonic lithosphere of SW Greenland with GHF of ca. 40 mW/m2 thins to 180–190 km towards central Greenland without a clear boundary between the Archean and Proterozoic blocks, and the deepest lithosphere keel is observed beneath the largest kimberlite province in West Greenland. The NW-SE belt with an anomalously thin (100–120 km) lithosphere and GHF of 60–70 mW/m2 crosses north-central Greenland from coast to coast and it may mark the Iceland hotspot track. In East Greenland this anomalous belt merges with a strong GHF anomaly of >100 mW/m2 in the Fjordland region. The anomaly is associated with a strong lithosphere thinning, possibly to the Moho, that requires advective heat transfer such as above active magma chambers, which would accelerate ice basal melting. The anomaly may extend 500 km inland with possibly a significant contribution of ice melt to the ice-drainage system of Greenland.
  8. Greve, Ralf, and Kolumban Hutter. “Polythermal three-dimensional modelling of the Greenland ice sheet with varied geothermal heat flux.” Annals of Glaciology 21 (1995): 8-12. Computations over 50 000 years into steady state with Greve’s polythermal ice-sheet model and its numerical code are performed for the Greenland ice sheet with today’s climatological input (surface temperature and accumulation function) and three values of the geothermal heat flux: (42, 54.6, 29.4) mW m−2. It is shown that through the thermomechanical coupling the geometry as well as the thermal regime, in particular that close to the bed, respond surprisingly strongly to the basal thermal heat input. The most sensitive variable is the basal temperature field, but the maximum height of the summit also varies by more than ±100m. Furthermore, some intercomparison of the model outputs with the real ice sheet is carried out, showing that the model provides reasonable results for the ice-sheet geometry as well as for the englacial temperatures.

CONCLUSIONThe attribution of observed polar ice melt events to anthropogenic global warming along with the proposal that such melt events can be attenuated by taking climate action and moving the global energy infrastructure away from fossil fuels to renewables, is not possible in light of the complex episodic and localized nature of these ice melt events and their locations restricted to known geologically active areas. The attribution to anthropogenic global warming requires an explanation of these anomalies. If polar ice melt were driven by global warming it would be more uniform and more of a trend and not isolated, episodic, and not restricted to known geologically active locations. Glacial and ice shelf melt events that are episodic and restricted to geologically active locations cannot be understood as the impacts of fossil fuel emissions that can be moderated or prevented by taking climate action. For that, significant additional evidence must be provided that relates the melt events to atmospheric temperature data. No such evidence has been provided in this study where, as in all such studies, an atmosphere bias in the research methodology assumes that ice melt can only be explained in terms of anthropogenic global warming. Such findings are more likely to be the product of confirmation bias than unbiased and objective scientific inquiry

BRENDAN DE MELLE, A CLIMATE ACTIVIST AT DESMOG BLOG WRITES ABOUT COP26

LINK TO SOURCE: https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox/FMfcgzGlkjdkTcJdtrKnztWGfnPdpFDz

HERE IS WHAT HE SAYS

This week it’s been all about the COP26 climate summit and our team is on the ground in Glasgow to bring you the latest on what’s happening. As Rich Collette-White reports, a total 11 climate science deniers have secured passes to the UN COP26 climate summit taking place in Glasgow, Scotland, including Myron Ebell, the head of former US President Donald Trump’s transition team at the Environmental Protection Agency. CFACT and the Heartland Institute are hosting an alternative side event but their influence seems to be waning. As one climate expert said: “these days, almost no-one cares. Meanwhile, not only has Brazil sent the largest delegation to the climate summit, but the delegation, responsible for representing the country’s interests, includes representatives from two major Brazilian meat companies linked to Amazon deforestation. At the same time, Brazil joined over 100 countries to announce a “landmark” pledge to protect forests, promising to end deforestation by 2030. And, after navigating the “blue zone” where countries have set up large corporate-style pavilions, we found that just two of the 35 stalls lauding countries’ green credentials at the COP26 UN climate summit mention the need to cut fossil fuel production the chief cause of the carbon emissions driving climate change.

Just Two Countries Mention Need to Cut Fossil Fuel Production at COP26. Denmark and South Africa were the only exceptions among the 35 country pavilions at the UN climate summit, and the latter’s stall is sponsored by coal companies. Saudi Arabia was among the country pavilions at COP26 which failed to mention the need to reduce fossil fuel production. Only two of the 35 stalls lauding countries’ green credentials at the COP26 UN climate summit mention the need to cut fossil fuel production, the chief cause of the carbon emissions driving climate change, and supposedly THE issue at COP meetings. The summit’s official “blue zone” includes large corporate-style pavilions run by some of the world’s leading producers of oil, gas, and coal, including the United States, Australia, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Russia, United Arab Emirates, Germany, and Qatar. They highlight the countries’ environmental efforts while failing to mention their fossil fuel economy. There are two exceptions, Denmark and South Africa. Yet, Denmark is the largest oil producer in the EU, while South Africa is a significant producer and exporter of coal. Ironically, the COP meeting is founded on the objective that no new fossil fuel projects can proceed if the Paris Agreement’s 1.5 degree C temperature limit is to be met. When asked by DeSmog, officials were unable to explain this anomaly. There are some exceptions among the country pavilions. For example, the Bangladesh pavilion says they will tansition away from diesel powered water pumps and Egypt says it plans to transition away from fossil fuels. The Korean pavilion says it will reduce fossil fuel emissions for energy generation.

The absence of a focus on fossil fuel extraction in COPs is not new but found in all COPs. The refusal to confront the fossil fuel issue at meetings to end fossil fuels is the great contradiction of not just this COP but of all COPs. This is why the COP series has needed 26 of them and why it is best understood as an infinite series.

CONCLUSION: A MEETING TO END FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS DOES NOT WANT TO TALK ABOUT FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS. THIS CONTRADICTION OF THESE UN COP GATHERINGS UNDOES THE CREDIBILITY OF THE CLIMATE MOVEMENT AND IS BEST UNDERSTOOD IN TERMS OF THE STRUCTURE AND ORGANIZATION OF THE UN.

PLEASE SEE: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2794991

WHAT REALLY MATTERS IN THESE MEETINGS ARE THINGS LIKE THE LIFESIZE DAVID ATTENBOROUGH CAKE.

AND THAT EXPLAINS THIS SORDID HISTORY OF COPS: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/06/05/the-paris-agreement/

Stream Behind the Curtain - Brendan DeMelle of DeSmogBlog by WCSUMedia |  Listen online for free on SoundCloud
Brendan DeMelle, Author at DeSmog
BRENDAN DE MELLE

THE SOAP OPERA IS IN FULL SWING

From space, astronaut sounds the alarm about climate crisis

A French astronaut has used a video call from space to sound the alarm about worsening repercussions from climate change that he can see from the International Space Station.

From space, astronaut sounds the alarm about climate crisis | The  Independent



Climate change from space:

Entire regions of Earth in flames. Storms trailing destruction in their wake. And the haunting fragility of humanity’s only home floating like a blue pearl in the vastness of space. Through the portholes of the International Space Station, French astronaut Thomas Pesquet has an arresting view of global warming’s repercussions. He used a video call from space to sound the alarm Thursday, as negotiators, government officials and activists continued meeting at a U.N. climate conference in Glasgow, Scotland. We see the pollution of rivers, atmospheric pollution, things like that. What really shocked me on this mission were extreme weather or climate phenomena. We saw entire regions burning from the space station, in Canada, in California. We saw all of California covered by a cloud of smoke and flames with the naked eye from 400 kilometers. From space, the fragility of Earth is a shock. It’s a sensory experience to see just how isolated we are as an oasis, with limited resources. The destructive effects of human activity have become increasingly visible. Year after year, we also know we are beating records for fires, for storms, for floods. And that is very, very visible. I very clearly saw the difference compared to my mission four or five years ago. The goal for climate negotiators in Scotland must be to speed up humanity’s response. There is still a huge job ahead for COP26.

From space, astronaut sounds the alarm about climate crisis - The Central  List

IN OTHER COP26 NEWS


Youngest White House advisor in US history speaks at COP26

Jerome Foster, the youngest White House advisor in US history is the keynote speaker at the C0P26 Summit

COP26: Sir David Attenborough unveils new nature programme in Glasgow |  Glasgow Times

THE COP26 SPEACH OF THE DAVID

Cop26, the extraordinary speech by 95-year-old documentarian David  Attenborough that captured world leaders

As you spend the next two weeks debating, negotiating, persuading, and compromising as you surely must, it’s easy to forget that ultimately the climate comes down to a single number, the concentration of carbon in our atmosphere, the measure that greatly determines global temperature. The changes in that one number is the clearest way to chart our own story – for it defines our relationship with our own world. For much of humanity’s ancient history, that number bounced wildly between 180 and 300 and so did the global temperatures. It was a brutal and unpredictable world. At times our ancestors existed only in tiny numbers. But just over 10,000 years ago that number suddenly stabilized and with it the earth’s climate.

RESPONSE:

NEITHER THE GLACIATION CYCLE NOR THE WARMING AND COOLING CYCLES OF INTERGLACIALS CAN BE UNDERSTOOD IN TERMS OF “THE SINGLE NUMBER” PROPOSED AS ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION. RELATED POST ON THE WARMING AND COOLING CYCLES OF THE HOLOCENE: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/06/11/chaoticholocene/

COP26: Sir David Attenborough tells world leaders that humanity is 'already  in trouble' at Glasgow climate conference | The Scotsman

We thus found ourselves in an unusually benign period with predictable seasons and reliable weather. For the first time, civilization was possible and we wasted no time in taking advantage of that. Everything we have achieved in the last 10,000 years was was enabled by the stabiity of the climate during this time. The global temperature has not wavered over this period by more than 1C. Until now. Our burning of fossil fuels and our destruction of nature are releasing carbon into the atmosphere at a unprecedented pace and we are allready in trouble. The stability of the climate that we all depend on is breaking.

RESPONSE:

THE CLIMATE DID NOT “SUDDENLY STABILIZE” WHEN THE HOLOCENE INTERGLACIAL BEGAN ABOUT 10,000 OR MAYBE 9,000 YEARS AGO. INTERGLACIALS ARE NOT AT A STABLE TEMPERATURE BUT GO THROUGH VIOLENT WARMING AND COOLING CYCLES AT CENTENNIAL AND MILLENNIAL TIME SCALES. THE CURRENT WARMING CYCLE IS BEST UNDERSTOOD AS THE NEXT WARMING CYCLE FOLLOWING THE LITTLE ICE AGE COOLING CYCLE. THE FIRST OF THESE WARMING CYCLES DID NOT DESTROY HUMANITY BUT INSTEAD IT CREATED HUMAN CIVILIZATION. LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/06/27/modern-humans-climate-change/

COP26: Sir David Attenborough tells leaders, 'The world is looking to you'

This story is one of inequalityas well as instability. Today, those who have done the least to cause this problem are being the hardest hit. Ultimately all of us will feel the impacts some of which are now unavoidable. Is this how our story will end? A tale of the smartest species doomed by that all too human characteristic of failing to see the bigger picture in pursuit of short term goals? Perhaps the fact that the people most affected by climate change are the young people alive today, perhaps that will give us the impetus we need to re-write our story and to turn this tragedy into a triumph.

RESPONSE:

THE USE OF YOUNG PEOPLE AND THE HARDSHIP OF POVERTY IN THE GLOBAL SOUTH TO SELL THE CLIMATE AGENDA IS CRUEL, RACIST, AND CHILD ABUSE.

LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/09/09/climate-change-racism-2/

LINK#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/04/28/the-new-climate-science/

Cop26: Nature must be at heart of fight to save planet, Sir David  Attenborough says | The Independent

We are after all the greatest problem solvers to have ever existed on earth. We now understand this problem. We know how to stop that number from rising. We must halve our carbon emissions this decade. We must re-capture billions of tonnes of carbon from the air. We must fix our sight on keeping 1.5C within reach.

RESPONSE:

THE PROBLEM IS THAT SELECTING A SINGLE INTERGLACIAL WARMING CYCLE IN A SINGLE INTERGLACIAL AND ANALYZING THAT SINGLE INERGLACIAL WARMING CYCLE IN TERMS OF ITS UNIQUE CHARACTERISTICS IS A CASE OF DATA SELECTION BIAS SUCH THAT THIS STUDY CANNOT LEAD TO USEFUL INFORMATION BECAUSE OF BUILT IN ASSUMPTIONS AND CONFIRMATION BIAS.

AN ADDED ISSUE IS THE DAVID’S INSISTENCE THAT WE MUST RE-CAPTURE CARBON DIOXIDE FROM THE AIR. THERE IS NO SUCH CLAIM IN CLIMATE SCIENCE AND BESIDES “BILLIONS OF TONNES” MAY SOUND LIKE A LOT BUT FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS ARE CURRENTLY 36 GIGATONNES PER YEAR.

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/10/09/a-data-selection-bias/

THE ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING ISSUE IS NOT THAT THERE IS TOO MUCH CO2 IN THE ATMOSPHERE BUT THAT OUR CONTINUED BURNING OF FOSSIL FUELS CAUSES ATMOSPHERIC CO2 TO RISE. IT IS THE RISING AND ONLY THE RISING THAT CAUSES WARMING.

Bbcrealitycheck | COP26: What's the climate impact of private jets? - Cop  26bbc

A new Industrial Revolution powered by millions of sustainable innovations is essential and indeed it is already beginning. We will all share in the benefits of affordable clean energy – healthy air and enough food to sustain us all. Nature is a key ally. Wherever we restore the wild, it will recapture carbon. and help us bring back balance to our planet. We must acknowledge that no nation has actually completed development because no advanced nation is yet sustainable.(transcription ends here at 5:17 into the Youtube video. The rest can be viewed at the link below.

RESPONSE:

WHAT CLIMATE SCIENCE SAYS IS THAT THE ISSUE HERE IS THAT SINCE THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION, HUMANS HAVE BEEN BURNING FOSSIL FUELS AND THE CARBON IN FOSSIL FUELS IS MILLIONS OF YEARS OLD AND NOT PART OF THE CURRENT ACCOUNT OF THE CARBON CYCLE AND THAT CAUSES FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS TO INCREASE ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION AND THE SEQUENCE OF HIGHER AND HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CREATES HIGHER AND HIGHER GLOBAL MEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE (GMST) AND THAT SEQUENCE OF HIGHER AND HIGHER GMST IS UNDERSTOOD AS GLOBAL WARMING. THIS IS THE CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUE AND IT IS THE ONLY CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUE. CLIMATE CHANGE IS NOT AN ENVIRONMENTALISM THING. THE DAVID’S ECO WACKO INTERPRETATION OF THE AGW ISSUE CAN ONLY BE UNDERSTOOD AS THE EXTENSION OF HIS ECO WACKO VIEW OF THE WORLD.

HIS NEED TO RECAPTURE CARBON FROM THE ATMOSPHERE”TO BRING BACK BALANCE TO OUR PLANET” IS MYSTERIOUS AND YET ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF WHERE HIS ECO WACKO OUTLOOK INTERFERES WITH HIS ABILITY TO UNDERSTAND THE CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUE.

LINK TO RELATED POST: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/10/11/anthropogenic-global-warming-in-a-post-modern-world/

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION

THE LECTURE MAKES IT VERY CLEAR THAT THIS MAN WHO HAS BEEN A MAJOR SPOKESMAN AND ACTIVIST FOR THE CLIMATE CHANGE MOVEMENT AND WHO, IN THAT CAPACITY IS NOW A SPEAKER AT A COP MEETING, DOES NOT ACTUALLY UNDERSTAND THE CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUE AND SEES IT THOUGH HIS ECO WACKO NATURE MAN PERSPECTIVE.

RELATED POST#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/10/08/the-natural-world/

RELATED POST#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/10/30/the-david-and-the-cop26/

FOOTNOTE: A QUORA QUESTION

What will the world be like if climate goals are not met?

Answer:


The Holocene interglacial that we are in has been going through alternating warming and cooling cycles of 100 to 1000 years each for about 8000 years and this pattern is likely to continue until the next glaciation kicks in. The current warming cycle should be understood in this context. Whether or not we take “climate action” this is what we have to deal with. We can use the warming as an excuse to get rid of the hated fossil fuels and the hated fossil fuel oligarchy if we want and that may be a good thing but it won’t change the interglacial and it won’t change this warming cycle of the interglacial. We just live here. We don’t really run the show here. But we humans do have an ego.

RELATED POST: MODERN HUMANS AND CLIMATE CHANGE

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/06/27/modern-humans-climate-change/

EXCERPT

A FOSSIL FUELED CONFERENCE TO END FOSSIL FUELS

Net Zero: U.S. infrastructure bill falls short on climate action - iPolitics

WHAT CLIMATE SCIENCE SAYS IS THAT GLOBAL WARMING IS CAUSED BY HUMANS BURNING FOSSIL FUELS. WHAT THEY WANT IN CLIMATE ACTION TO FIGHT GLOBAL WARMING IS FOR HUMANS TO STOP BURNING FOSSIL FUELS. THE PROPOSAL THAT HUMANS CAN CONTINUE TO BURN FOSSIL FUELS IF THE EMISSIONS ARE OFFSET BY CARBON CYCLE INTERVENTIONS IS FALSE.

DETAILS IN THESE LINKS TO RELATED POSTS ON THIS SITE

LINK#1: WHAT DOES NET ZERO MEAN? https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/02/25/net-zero/

LINK#2: THE FALLACY OF THE TREE PLANTING OFFSETS: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/05/20/the-power-of-trees/

LINK#3: THE FALLACY OF EMISSION OFFSETS IN THE CARBON CREDITS MARKET: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/09/30/cer/

LINK#4: ON THE CREDIBILITY OF THE UN AS ARBITER OF THE CLIMATE ISSUE: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2794991

ABSTRACT

The United Nations is an Unconstrained Bureaucracy. It is financed mostly by taxpayers from a few donor countries but the large and growing bureaucracy is too far removed from those taxpayers to be directly accountable to them. It is run by unelected, unaccountable, undisciplined, and incompetent bureaucrats. The organization’s size, budget, and scope are unconstrained. The budget funding process provides perverse incentives for these bureaucrats to increase the size and scope of their organization simply by creating multitudes of agencies and programs, and by inventing problems and environmental crises set on a global scale.

LINK TO FULL TEXT: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2794991

Net Zero: U.S. infrastructure bill falls short on climate action - iPolitics

LINK TO SOURCE: https://theconversation.com/the-science-everyone-needs-to-know-about-climate-change-in-6-charts-170556

The climate science everyone needs to know about climate change, in 6 charts

BY: Betsy Weatherhead, Senior Scientist, University of Colorado Boulder.


With the United Nations’ climate conference in Scotland turning a spotlight on climate change policies and the impact of global warming, it’s useful to understand what the science shows. I’m an atmospheric scientist who has worked on global climate science and assessments for most of my career. Here are six things you should know, in charts.

What’s driving climate change?

The primary focus of the negotiations is on carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas that is released when fossil fuels are burned, as well as by forest fires, land use changes and natural sources. The Industrial Revolution of the late 1800s started an enormous increase in the burning of fossil fuels. That same century, scientists identified carbon dioxide’s potential to increase global temperatures, which at the time was considered a possible benefit to the planet. Systematic measurements started in the mid-1900s and have shown a steady increase in carbon dioxide, with the majority of it directly traceable to the combustion of fossil fuels.

BLOGGER’S RESPONSE TO “DIRECTLY TRACEABLE TO THE COMBUSTION OF FOSSIL FUELS”.

LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/21/the-case-against-fossil-fuels/

LINK#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/11/02/the-anthropogenic-global-warming-question/

LINK#3: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/06/14/responsiveness-of-atmospheric-co2-to-fossil-fuel-emissions/

Once in the atmosphere, carbon dioxide tends to stay there for a very long time. A portion of the carbon dioxide released through human activities is taken up by plants, and some is absorbed directly into the ocean, but roughly half of all carbon dioxide emitted by human activities today stays in the atmosphere — and it likely will remain there for hundreds of years, influencing the climate globally. During the first year of the pandemic in 2020, when fewer people were driving and some industries briefly stopped, carbon dioxide emissions from fuels fell by roughly 6%. But it didn’t stop the rise in the concentration of carbon dioxide because the amount released into the atmosphere by human activities far exceeded what nature could absorb. If civilization stopped its carbon dioxide-emitting activities today, it would still take many hundreds of years for the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to fall enough naturally to bring the planet’s carbon cycle back into balance because of carbon dioxide’s long life in the atmosphere.

How we know greenhouse gases can change the climate. Multiple lines of scientific evidence point to the increase in greenhouse emissions over the past century and a half as a driver of long-term climate change around the world. For example: Laboratory measurements since the 1800s have repeatedly verified and quantified the absorptive properties of carbon dioxide that allow it to trap heat in the atmosphere. Simple models based on the warming impact of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere match historical changes in temperature. Complex climate models, recently acknowledged in the Nobel Prize for Physics, not only indicate a warming of the Earth due to increases in carbon dioxide but also offer details of the areas of greatest warming. When carbon dioxide levels have been high in the past, evidence shows temperatures have also been high. Based on Salawitch et al., 2017, updated with data to the end of 2020. Long-term records from ice cores, tree rings and corals show that when carbon dioxide levels have been high, temperatures have also been high. Our neighboring planets also offer evidence. Venus’ atmosphere is thick with carbon dioxide, and it is the hottest planet in our solar system as a result, even though Mercury is closer to the sun.Temperatures are rising on every continent. The rising temperatures are evident in records from every continent and over the oceans. The temperatures aren’t rising at the same rate everywhere, however. A variety of factors affect local temperatures, including land use that influences how much solar energy is absorbed or reflected, local heating sources like urban heat islands, and pollution. The Arctic, for example, is warming about three times faster than the global average in part because as the planet warms, snow and ice melt makes the surface more likely to absorb, rather than reflect, the sun’s radiation. Snow cover and sea ice recede even more rapidly as a result. What climate change is doing to the planet. Earth’s climate system is interconnected and complex, and even small temperature changes can have large impacts – for instance, with snow cover and sea levels. Changes are already happening. Studies show that rising temperatures are already affecting precipitation, glaciers, weather patterns, tropical cyclone activity and severe storms. A number of studies show that the increases in frequency, severity and duration of heat waves, for example, affect ecosystems, human lives, commerce and agriculture. Historical records of ocean water level have shown mostly consistent increases over the past 150 years as glacier ice melts and rising temperatures expand ocean water, with some local deviations due to sinking or rising land. While extreme events are often due to complex sets of causes, some are exacerbated by climate change. Just as coastal flooding can be made worse by rising ocean levels, heat waves are more damaging with higher baseline temperatures. Climate scientists work hard to estimate future changes as a result of increased carbon dioxide and other expected changes, such as world population. It’s clear that temperatures will increase and precipitation will change. The exact magnitude of change depends on many interacting factors. On a hopeful note, scientific research is improving our understanding of climate and the complex Earth system, identifying the most vulnerable areas and guiding efforts to reduce the drivers of climate change. Work on renewable energy and alternative energy sources, as well as ways to capture carbon from industries or from the air, are producing more options for a better prepared society. At the same time, people are learning about how they can reduce their own impact, with the growing understanding that a globally coordinated effort is required to have a significant impact. Electric vehicles, as well as solar and wind power, are growing at previously unthinkable rates. More people are showing a willingness to adopt new strategies to use energy more efficiently, consume more sustainably and choose renewable energy.

BLOGGER’S RESPONSE TO HOW WE KNOW THAT GREENHOUSE GASES CAN CHANGE THE CLIMATE

THE UNSETTLED CLIMATE SENSITIVITY ISSUE: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/05/10/the-climate-sensitivity-issue/

THE NEED FOR AN ALTERNATIVE TO CLIMATE SENSITIVITY: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/05/06/tcre/

A MATHEMATICAL INCONSISTENCY: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/08/26/a-mathematical-inconsistency/

Scientists increasingly recognize that shifting away from fossil fuels has additional benefits, including improved air quality for human health and ecosystems. Misha Ketchell

BLOGGER’S RESPONSE TO THE RELIANCE ON THE AD HOMINEM CREDIBILITY OF THE SOURCE DERIVED FROM THE TITLE “SCIENTIST” IN ASSESSING THESE CLAIMS.

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/05/18/climate-science-vs-statistics/