Thongchai Thailand

THE CLIMATE IN 2500

Posted on: October 1, 2021

Figure showing temperature and sea level rise to 2500 CE under RCP2.6, 4.5, and 6.0.

LINK TO SOURCE: https://theconversation.com/our-climate-projections-for-2500-show-an-earth-that-is-alien-to-humans-167744

A triptych of social and infrastructure changes over time due to the severity of climate change

PART-1: WHAT THE ARTIICLE SAYS

THE RESEARCHERS WHO DID THIS WORK

Our climate projections for 2500 show an Earth that is alien to humans. 9/26/2021
Authors:

Christopher Lyon Postdoctoral researcher, Natural Resource Sciences, McGill University,

Alex Dunhill Research Fellow in Palaeobiology, University of Leeds,

Andrew P. Beckerman Professor in Evolutionary Ecology, University of Sheffield,

Ariane Burke Professor, Anthropology, Université de Montréal,

Bethany Allen PhD Student, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds,

Chris Smith NERC-IIASA Collaborative Research Fellow, University of Leeds,

Daniel J. Hill Lecturer, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds,

Erin Saupe Associate Professor, Palaeobiology, University of Oxford,

James McKay Manager, Centre for Doctoral Training, University of Leeds,

Julien Riel-Salvatore Professor, Anthropology, Université de Montréal,

Lindsay C. Stringer Professor, Environment and Geography, University of York,

Rob Marchant Professor of Tropical Ecology, University of York,

Tracy Aze Associate Professor, Earth and Environment, University of Leeds.

THEIR RESEARCH FINDINGS FROM CLIMATE MODEL PROJECTIONS.


There are many reports based on scientific research that talk about the long-term impacts of climate change such as rising levels of greenhouse gases, temperatures and sea levels by the year 2100. The Paris Agreement, for example, requires us to limit warming to under 2.0 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. Every few years since 1990, we have evaluated our progress through the IPCC scientific assessment reports and related special reports. IPCC reports assess existing research to show us where we are and what we need to do before 2100 to meet our goals, and what could happen if we don’t. The recently published United Nations assessment of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) warns that current promises from governments set us up for a very dangerous 2.7 degrees Celsius warming by 2100: this means unprecedented fires, storms, droughts, floods and heat, and profound land and aquatic ecosystem change. While some climate projections do look past 2100, these longer-term projections aren’t being factored into mainstream climate adaptation and environmental decision-making today. This is surprising because people born now will only be in their 70s by 2100. What will the world look like for their children and grandchildren? To grasp, plan for and communicate the full spatial and temporal scope of climate impacts under any scenario, even those meeting the Paris Agreement, researchers and policymakers must look well beyond the 2100 horizon.

After 2100: In 2100, will the climate stop warming? If not, what does this mean for humans now and in the future? In our recent open-access article in Global Change Biology, we begin to answer these questions. We ran global climate model projections based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), which are “time-dependent projections of atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations.” Our projections modelled low (RCP6.0), medium (RCP4.5) and high mitigation scenarios (RCP2.6, which corresponds to the “well-below 2 degrees Celsius” Paris Agreement goal) up to the year 2500. We also modelled vegetation distribution, heat stress and growing conditions for our current major crop plants, to get a sense of the kind of environmental challenges today’s children and their descendants might have to adapt to from the 22nd century onward.

Figure showing temperature and sea level rise to 2500 CE under RCP2.6, 4.5, and 6.0.

Figure showing temperature and sea level rise to 2500 CE under RCP2.6, 4.5, and 6.0.


Global mean near-surface air temperature (solid lines) and thermosteric sea level rise (dotted lines) anomalies relative to the 2000-19 mean for the RCP6.0, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 scenarios. Shaded regions highlight the time horizons of interest and their nominal reference years. The bottom panel shows spatial anomalies relative to 2000-19 mean for the 2100, 2200 and 2500 climates under the three RCPs. (Lyon et al., 2021). In our model, we found that global average temperatures keep increasing beyond 2100 under RCP4.5 and 6.0. Under those scenarios, vegetation and the best crop-growing areas move towards the poles, and the area suitable for some crops is reduced. Places with long histories of cultural and ecosystem richness, like the Amazon Basin, may become barren. Further, we found heat stress may reach fatal levels for humans in tropical regions which are currently highly populated. Such areas might become uninhabitable. Even under high-mitigation scenarios, we found that sea level keeps rising due to expanding and mixing water in warming oceans. Although our findings are based on one climate model, they fall within the range of projections from others, and help to reveal the potential magnitude of climate upheaval on longer time scales. To really portray what a low-mitigation/high-heat world could look like compared to what we’ve experienced until now, we used our projections and diverse research expertise to inform a series of nine paintings covering a thousand years (1500, 2020, and 2500 CE) in three major regional landscapes (the Amazon, the Midwest United States and the Indian subcontinent). The images for the year 2500 centre on the RCP6.0 projections, and include slightly advanced but recognizable versions of today’s technologies.

The Amazon: A triptych of a landscape near a river showing the how human activities affect the climate
The top image shows a traditional pre-contact Indigenous village (1500 CE) with access to the river and crops planted in the rainforest. The middle image is a present-day landscape. The bottom image, considers the year 2500 and shows a barren landscape and low water level resulting from vegetation decline, with sparse or degraded infrastructure and minimal human activity. (Lyon et al., 2021), CC BY-ND
Midwest U.S. A triptych of agriculture and changes in crops over time due to climate change The top painting is based on pre-colonisation Indigenous cities and communities with buildings and a diverse maize-based agriculture. The second is the same area today, with a grain monoculture and large harvesters. The last image, however, shows agricultural adaptation to a hot and humid subtropical climate, with imagined subtropical agroforestry based on oil palms and arid zone succulents. The crops are tended by AI drones, with a reduced human presence. (Lyon et al., 2021), CC BY-ND.


The Indian subcontinent: A triptych of social and infrastructure changes over time due to the severity of climate change. The top image is a busy agrarian village scene of rice planting, livestock use and social life. The second is a present-day scene showing the mix of traditional rice farming and modern infrastructure present in many areas of the Global South. The bottom image shows a future of heat-adaptive technologies including robotic agriculture and green buildings with minimal human presence due to the need for personal protective equipment. (Lyon et al., 2021), CC BY-ND

A triptych of social and infrastructure changes over time due to the severity of climate change

An alien future? : Between 1500 and today, we have witnessed colonization and the Industrial Revolution, the birth of modern states, identities and institutions, the mass combustion of fossil fuels and the associated rise in global temperatures. If we fail to halt climate warming, the next 500 years and beyond will change the Earth in ways that challenge our ability to maintain many essentials for survival particularly in the historically and geographically rooted cultures that give us meaning and identity. The Earth of our high-end projections is alien to humans. The choice we face is to urgently reduce emissions, while continuing to adapt to the warming we cannot escape as a result of emissions up to now, or begin to consider life on an Earth very different to this one.

PART-2: CRITICAL COMMENTARY

WE NOTE HERE THAT CLIMATE SCIENCE HAS A HISTORY OF MORE THAN 20 YEARS OF FAILED FORECASTS AT DECADAL AND MULTI-DECADAL TIME SCALES FOR THINGS LIKE (1) AN ICE FREE ARCTIC, (2) THE EXTINCTION OF THE POLAR BEAR, (3) THE COLLAPSE OF ICE IN ANTARCTICA WITH DEVASTATING SEA LEVEL RISE, (4) THE COLLAPSE OF THE GREENLAND ICE SHEET AND SEA LEVEL RISE, (5) SOUTH PACIFIC ISLANDS UNDER WATER BY WAY OF CLIMATE CHANGE SEA LEVEL RISE, (6) THE DEATH AND DESTRUCTION OF PITIFUL THIRD WORLD COUNTRIES LIKE BANGLADESH BY CLIMATE CHANGE CYCLONES, SEA LEVEL RISE, FLOODS, AND DROUGHTS, (7) AND MANY MANY OTHER SUCH DECADAL FORECASTS LISTED BELOW; – HAVE ALL FAILED. THE SUCCESS RATE OF CLIMATE SCIENCE IN THESE FORECASTS IS LIMITED TO THE ONES MADE AT TIME SCALES TOO LONG TO TEST. AND SO THE APPROPRIATE STRATEGY IS TO MAKE THE FORECASTS LONGER AND LONGER SUCH THAT THEY STAND AS TRUTH UNTIL THE MOVEMENT AGAINST FOSSIL FUELS IS COMPLETED.

AND AS FOR THE WORD “COULD” AS IN {what we need to do before 2100 to meet our goals, and what could happen if we don’t}, WE NOTE THAT FORECASTS MADE IN THIS WAY IMPLY THAT THERE IS AN UNCERTAINTY ISSUE IN THE FORECAST BECAUSE “COULD” MEANS WE DON’T REALLY KNOW AND WE CAN’T REALLY SAY IF IT WILL HAPPEN. HOWEVER NO UNCERTAINTY DATA IS PROVIDED AND THE ANALYSIS THAT LEADS TO THE SCARY CONCLUSIONS DO NOT INCLUDE THE UNCERTAINTY FACTORS. IN FACT THE ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSIONS ARE MADE WITH AN ASSUMPTION OF CERTAINTY BUT WITH THE USE OF THE WORD “COULD” IN THE CONCLUSION THAT IMPLIES A HIDDEN UNCERTAINTY.

WHETHER THESE STATISTICAL ANOMALIES ARE STATISTICAL TRICKS OR WHETHER THEY REVEAL A WEAKNESS IN STATISTICS IN CLIMATE SCIENCE IS NOT KNOWN BUT THERE ARE SERIOUS STATISTICAL ANOMALIES IN THESE WORKS AS DESCRIBED IN TO RELATED POSTS:

LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/04/22/climate-science-uncertainty/

LINK#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/05/18/climate-science-vs-statistics/

FAILED FORCASTS OF THE PAST

LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/04/13/the-science-of-climate-science-is-fear/

LINK#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/06/15/history-of-the-global-warming-scare-1980-2010/

LINK#3: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/08/10/links-to-ipcc6-posts/

LINK#4: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/03/13/bangladesh-a-climate-emergency-poster-child/

MORE FAILED SHORT TERM FORECASTS OF CLIMATE SCIENCE

LINK#5: A FAILED POLAR ICE MELT OBSESSION: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/09/24/a-failed-polar-ice-melt-obsession/

LINK#6: A FAILED OBSESSION WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/09/20/a-failed-obsession-with-tropical-cyclones/

LINK#7: A FAILED OBSESSION WITH THE THWAITES GLACIER: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/09/18/the-climate-science-obsession-with-the-thwaites-glacier/

LINK#8: A FAILED OBSESSION WITH AN ICE FREE ARCTIC: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/11/18/the-ice-free-arctic-obsession-of-agw/

LINK#9: THE HURRICANE OBSESSION OF CLIMATE SCIENCE THAT WENT NOWHERE: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/11/14/hurricane-obsession/

LINK#10: THE MELTING ANTARCTICA SEA LEVEL RISE OBSESSION: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/07/16/antarctica-slr/

CONCLUSION: TO AVOID THE ANGUISH OF FAILED FORECASTS MAKE FORECASTS FOR THE YEAR 2500 THAT IS 479 YEARS FROM NOW AND A LITTLE TOO FAR OUT IN TIME FOR PEOPLE TO FIND OUT HOW BAD YOUR FORECAST IS.

HUMAN CAUSE: THE REAL ISSUE HERE IS HUMAN CAUSE BECAUSE WITHOUT EVIDENCE OF HUMAN CAUSE OF THE WARMING TREND, WHATEVER IMPACTS THE WARMING MAY HAVE ARE ALL NATURAL.

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/11/09/the-issue-is-human-cause/

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3 Responses to "THE CLIMATE IN 2500"

If the planet is warming we can expect more water vapor, more precipitation and more CO2 burbling up out of the ocean the same way it bubbles up out of your carbonated beverages.

More precipitation and more CO2 means a greener planet.

I would be definitely dead in 2500 but what we are leaving the future generations is not good. We must act now! Thank you 🌍

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