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Archive for June 2021

QUOTES BY RICHARD TOL | A-Z Quotes

THIS POST IS A PRESENTATION OF THE ARGUMENT BY CLIMATE ACTIVISTS THAT THE LEGITIMACY OF THE CLIMATE SCIENCE CASE AGAINST FOSSIL FUELS DERIVES FROM A 97% CONSENSUS AMONG CLIMATE SCIENTISTS THAT THE CLIMATE SCIENCE CASE AGAINST FOSSIL FUELS IS LEGITIMATE.

Steve Koonin - DeSmog

HERE WE STUDY THIS HYPOTHESIS IN THE CONTEXT OF THE EVALUATION OF CLIMATE DENIERS BY CLIMATE ACTIVISTS.

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SPECIFICALLY, WE PRESENT THE CLAIM BY CLIMATE ACTIVISTS THAT REGARLESS OF SCHOLARLY OR ACADEMIC QUALFICATIONS, CLIMATE DENIERS THAT ARE PART OF A CLIMATE DENIAL CONSENSUS BY WAY OF THEIR AFFILIATION WITH CLIMATE DENIAL ORGANIZATIONS SUCH AS (1) THE AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE, (2) THE CATO INSTITUTE, (3) THE HEARTLAND INSTITUTE, (4) THE HERITAGE FOUNDATION, AND (5) THE GLOBAL WARMING POLICY FOUNDATION, ARE NOT CREDIBLE BECAUSE THEY ARE A CABAL.

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THE CABAL ISSUE IS PRESENTED AS THE ABSENCE OF CRITICAL THOUGHT AND EVALUATION BY THE INDIVIDUALS WHO ARE PROGRAMMED BY THEIR CONSENSUS TO MOUTH THE SCRIPTED ARGUMENTS OF THE CONSENSUS TO WHICH THE ORGANIZATION SUBSCRIBES. THE IMPLICATION IS THAT BEING PART OF A CLIMATE DENIAL CONSENSUS BY WAY OF THEIR MEMBERSHIP IN A CLIMATE DENIAL ORGANZIATION CAUSES THESE INDIVIDUALS TO LOSE CREDIBILITY. THEIR ACADEMIC AND SCIENTIFIC QUALIFICATIONS ARE IRRLEVANT IN THIS SITUATION BECAUSE WHEN THEY OPEN THER MOUTH THEY HAVE TO MOUTH THE CONSENSUS OF THE CABAL.

IT THUS APPEARS THAT THE INTERPRETATION OF CONSENSUS DEPENDS ON WHETHER THE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS THE CLIMATE ACTIVISM VIEW (IN WHICH CASE CONSENSUS IS NOT ONLY A GOOD THING BUT THE SEAL OF TRUTH) OR WHETHER THE CONSENSUS OPPOSES THE CLIMATE ACTIVISM VIEW (IN WHICH CASE CONSENSUS IMPLIES A MINDLESS CABAL OF THE INDIVIDUALS INVOLVED WHO ARE UNABLE TO THINK CRITICALLY FOR THEMSELVES BECAUSE THEY HAVE TO MOUTH THE CABAL CONSENSUS).

Presentation by Richard Tol - YouTube

CONCLUSION: WE CONCLUDE THAT THE CONTRADICTORY INTERPRETATION OF CONSENSUS BY CLIMATE ACTIVISM PROVIDES FURTHER EVIDENCE THAT THE CLIMATE MOVEMENT IS ACTIVISM AND NOT SCIENCE. THE ACTIVISM DETERMINES WHAT THE SCIENCE MUST BE AND WHAT WORDS LIKE CONSENSUS MEAN. THIS KIND OF LOGIC IN CLIMATE SCIENCE MAKES IT IMPOSSIBLE TO UNDERSTAND IT AS A SCIENCE.

RATHER WHAT WE FIND HERE IS AN EXTREME AND RELIGIOUS FORM OF ACTIVISM WHERE THE ONLY TRUTHS ARE THOSE THAT SUPPORT THEIR VIEW AND ALL ELSE ARE LIES AND CONSIPRACY OF THE CABAL THAT MUST THEREFORE BE FUNDED BY THE FOSSIL FUEL INDUSTRY.

THE SCRIPT OF CLIMATE SCIENCE ACTIVISM IS PRE-DETERMINED.

ITS APPLICATION REQUIRES IMAGINATION.

PEOPLE: Judith Curry retires, citing 'craziness' of climate science --  Wednesday, January 4, 2017 -- www.eenews.net

What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn't, and Why It Matters | Steven  Koonin - YouTube

RELATED POSTS ON CLIMATE CHANGE DENIAL

https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/06/22/climate-change-denial-research/

https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/10/21/denialfunding/

https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/07/11/climate-denialism/

The Religion of Climate Change - The Global Warming Policy Forum

AN EXAMPLE OF HOW THE CLIMATE RELIGION WORKS

WHAT I HAD WRITTEN IN AN ONLINE DOCUMENT OPEN TO COMMENTS

THE CURRENT WARMING CYCLE IS NOT A UNIQUE EVENT IN THE HOLOCENE BUT ONE OF NINE WARMING AND COOLING CYCLES OF THE INTERGLACIAL AT CENTENNIAL AND MILLENNIAL TIME SCALES. IF CLIMATE SCIENTISTS UNDERSTAND THIS PHENOMENON, THEY SHOULD EXPLAIN ALL OF THESE TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES AND NOT PICK JUST ONE OF THEM TO EXPLAIN AS A CAUSE AND EFFECT PHENOMENON. THAT KIND OF SCIENCE CONTAINS A METHODOLOFICAL FLAW CALLED “DATA SELECTION BIAS“.

CLIMATE CHANGE - THE NEW RELIGION - Kindle edition by Nelson, Peter.  Religion & Spirituality Kindle eBooks @ Amazon.com.

HERE ARE THE COMMENTS

COMMENT#1: YOU SHOULD TRY TO LEARN ABOUT THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT AND THE CARBON CYCLE. IT’S PRETTY BASIC STUFF. THERE IS NO EXCUSE FOR THIS KIND OF IGNORANCE.

Faith for Earth: Climate Change and Environmental Justice

COMMENT#2: THE CURRENT WARMING IS HAPPENING AT TEN TIMES THE RATE OF THE WARMING THAT ENDED THE LAST GLACIATION OVERCOMING NATURAL FORCINGS THAT HAVE BEEN CAUSING COOLING FOR THE LAST 7,000 YEARS.

Faith for Earth: Climate Change and Environmental Justice

COMMENT#3: THE CURRENT WARMING IS HAPPENING AT FOUR TIMES THE RATE OF THE GLOBAL HEATING 250 MILLION YEARS AGO THAT KILLED OFF NEARLY ALL LIFE ON EARTH.

Faith for Earth: Climate Change and Environmental Justice

COMMENT#4: THE CURRENT GLOBAL WARMING IS LITERALLY OFF THE CHARTS AND WE KNOW FOR A HARD FACT THAT IT IS CAUSED BY OUR PRODUCTION OF CO2 FROM FOSSIL FUELS.

Faith for Earth: Climate Change and Environmental Justice

HOW FAR THE TERMITES HAVE SPREAD AND HOW LONG AND WELL THEY HAVE DINED

THE SAD STATE OF SCIENCE | Thongchai Thailand
THE SAD STATE OF SCIENCE | Thongchai Thailand
St. Greta Spreads the Climate Gospel - The Global Warming Policy Forum

RELATED POST: A MORE EXTENSIVE STUDY OF THIS ISSUE IN TERMS OF THE BIRTH AND EVOLUTION OF HUMAN CIVILIZATION IS PRESENTED IN A RELATED POST ON THIS SITE LINKED BELOW.

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/05/27/unnatural-humans/

Image result for god gives man dominion over the earth

THE QUORA QUESTION: If we were to give up flying for the sake of our planet, how would we get around?

A simple way around the problem as framed is to just tone down the human ego.

We really have no relevance at the planetary scale. Most of the planet is in the mantle and core and most of the rest of the planet is the ocean and a tiny little corner of it is the dry land where humans are a tiny portion of life.

Yet we humans have been gifted by the gods with an ego that is bigger than the planet and so we have appointed ourselves the master and caretaker of the planet.

We are very intelligent creatures in a lot of ways but also mad in a lot of ways.

What if Adam and Eve didn't sin? - Quora


QUESTION: Since humanity is currently going green to save the planet (renewable energies, electric cars, etc.), does that mean humanity is going to be forced to go vegan?

ANSWER:

(1): The planet doesn’t need saving and if it did, humans wouldn’t be the ones to do it. But the bigger issue here is that the question has misinterpreted the theory of anthropogenic global warming and climate change (AGW) as planetary environmentalism. It is neither planetary nor environmentalism.

(2): The pollution issues of burning fossil fuels were solved long ago by the EPA, an agency that was created for that purpose. The AGW issue is not a pollution issue nor a going green issue nor a planet saving issue. It is simply the the observation by climate scientists that the 5th warming cycle of the Holocene interglacial that we live in began in the industrial revolution of humans when humans began to dig up and burn large quantities of fossil fuels.

(3): Concurrently atmospheric CO2 concentration (ACO2) and global mean surface temperature (GMST) have been rising. Based on these data and their scientific knowledge of the earth’s climate system and the greenhouse effect of ACO2, climate scientists have determined that burning fossil fuels causes ACO2 to rise and rising ACO2 causes rising GMST and the rising GMST is understood as anthropogenic global warming (AGW) and that this warming cannot be allowed to continue beyond a dangerous threshold because of the destructive impacts of a feedback driven out of control warming such as sea level rise and severity of extreme weather.

(4): Climate science proposes that AGW can and must be stopped by the humans that are causing it by burning fossil fuels. The solution is to stop burning fossil fuels. Full stop. End of story. This is not an eco wacko environmentalism agenda and there is no role in the needed climate action for things like going green or a vegan diet.

LINKS TO RELATED POSTS ON THIS SITE THAT PROVIDE THE SUPPORTING DATA AND DATA ANALYSIS.

LINK#1: A VEGAN DIET IS NOT CLIMATE ACTION: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/06/19/vegandiet/

LINK#2: ENVIRONMENTALISM IS NOT CLIMATE ACTION: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/05/27/unnatural-humans/

LINK#4: THE PLANET IS TOO BIG FOR THE HUMANS TO DESTROY OR SAVE: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/03/30/the-humans-must-save-the-planet/

Prof. William Happer and Prof. Yoni Dubi | How to Think About Climate  Change - YouTube

BY WILLIAM HAPPER FEBRUARY 25, 2021

THE BEST WAY TO THINK ABOUT THE FRENZY OVER THE CLIMATE IS THAT IT IS KIND OF A MODERN VERSION OF THE MEDIEVAL CRUSADE. THE MOTTO OF THOSE CRUSADERS WAS DEUS VULT MEANING GOD WANTS IT. IT WOULD BE HARD TO THINK OF A BETTER VIRTUE SIGNAING SLOGAN THAN THAT. SO FAR MOST OF THE CLIMATE ENTHUSIASTS HAVE NOT GONE THAT FAR ALTHOUGH EXCEPT FOR THOSE WHO CLAIM THEY ARE DOING GOD’S WORK.

PERHAPS AFTER DECADES OF PROPAGANDA, MANY AMERICANS THINK THAT THERE REALLY IS A CLIMATE EMERGENCY. THOSE WHO THINK THAT WAY IN MANY CASES THEY MEAN WELL, BUT THEY HAVE BEEN MISLED BY DECADES OF MISINFORMATION. AS A SCIENTIST WHO ACTUALLY KNOWS A LOT ABOUT CLIMATE. I SET UP MANY OF OUR CLIMATE RESEARCH CENTERS WHEN I WAS SERVING IN THE DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY IN THE EARLY 1990S. I CAN ASSURE YOU THAT THERE IS NO CLIMATE EMERGENCY. THERE WILL NOT BE A CLIMATE EMERGENCY.

CRUSADES HAVE ALWAYS ENDED BADLY. THEY HAVE BROUGHT DISCREDIT TO THE SUPPOSED RIGHTEOUS CALLERS. THEY HAVE BROUGHT HARDSHIP AND DEATH TO MULTITUDES AND POLICIES TO ADDRESS THIS PHONY CLIMATE EMERGENCY WILL CAUSE GREAT DAMAGE TO AMERICAN CITIZENS AND TO THEIR ENVIRONMENT. BUT IT’S HEATING UP. ON FEBRUARY 4TH BERNIE SANDERS AND AOC AND A CONGRESSMAN BLIMENAR FROM OREGON INTRODUCED LEGISLATION “LEGISLATION MANDATING THE DECLARATION OF A NATIONAL CLIMATE EMERGENCY. THE NATIONAL CLIMATE EMERGENCY ACT DIRECTS THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES TO DECLARE A NATIONAL CLIMATE EMERGENCY AND MOBILIZE EVERY RESOURCE AT THE COUNTRY’S DISPOSAL TO HALT, REVERSE, MITIGATE, AND PREPARE FOR THE CONSEQUENCES OF THIS CLIMATE CRISIS.

WELL, THERE ISN’T A CLIMATE CRISIS, THERE WILL NOT BE A CLIMATE CRISIS. THIS IS UTTER NONSENSE. IT GETS WORSE WHEN YOU GET TO THE STATE LEVEL WHERE THERE ARE LESS CHECKS AND BALANCES. HERE FOR EXAMPLE ARE SOME REMARKS MADE LAST WEEK BY CHARLES ISMAY MASSACHUSETS UNDERSECRETARY FOR FOR CLIMATE CHANGE TO THE VERMONT CLIMATE COUNCIL.

MR ISMAY RESIGNED A FEW DAYS LATER AND HAD HE NOT HE WOULD HAVE BEEN FIRED ANYWAY. THAT’S THE WAY CRUSADES ARE. THE EXTREME HEROISM OF THE CAUSE DOES NOT MAKE ROOM FOR REASON OR THE VALUE OF TRUTH. THIS IS REALLY NOT A QUESTION OF SCIENCE. IT IS SOME KIND OF SECULAR RELIGION FOR SOME AND MONEY OR POWER FOR OTHERS. WHATEVER IT IS, IT IS NOT SCIENCE.

DURING THE MEDIEVAL CRUSADES, PART OF IT WAS AGAINST THE SUPPOSED THREATS TO THE HOLY SITES IN JERUSALEM BUT A LOT OF IT WAS AGAINST LOCAL ENEMIES. SO THE MEDIEVAL INQUISITION REALLY DID A JOB ON THE POOT QATARS AND DEVOLVANCIANS OF SOUTHERN FRANCE VOLVAMILLS AND THE VULCANS

CLIMATE FANATICS DON’T KNOW AND DON’T CARE ABOUT THE SCIENCE. THEY KNOW LESS ABOUT THE CLIMATE THAN THESE MEDIEVAL INQUISITIONS KNEW OR CARED ABOUT THE TEACHINGS OF CHRIST.

JUST ABOUT EVERYONE WANTS TO LIVE IN A CLEAN ENVIRONMENT. {PICTURE OF AIR POLLUTION IN SHANGHAI

THAT’S REAL AIR POLLUTION YOU’RE LOOKING AT. SOME OF THIS POLLUTION ACTUALLY IS FROM BURNING COAL, BUT THE BIGGER ISSUE IS THE DUST THAT BLOWS IN FROM THE GOBI DESERT. THIS POLLUTION ISSUE IN SHANGHAI IS NOT NEW BUT DATES BACK TO THE DAYS OF MARCO POLO AND LONG BEFORE. AND PART OF IT IS THE ASIAN AGRICULTURAL PRACTICE OF BURNING WHAT’S LEFT ON THE FIELD AFTER HARVEST. THIS IS POLLUTION AND IT IS BAD FOR OUR HEALTH BUT IT HAS NO RELEVANCE TO THE CO2 ISSUE IN CLIMATE CHANGE. CO2 IS A GAS THAT IS INVISIBLE TO ALL OUR SENSES. IT IS A GAS YOU CAN’T SEE, SMELL, OR TASTE. THE HAIRBRAINED SCHEME TO LIMIT EMISSIONS OF CO2 WHICH IS ACTUALLY BENEFICIAL WILL ONLY MAKE IT HARDER TO GET RID OF REAL POLLUTANTS LIKE THE POLLUTION IN SHANGHAI IN THE IMAGE ABOVE. CO2 IS NOT A POLLUTANT.

CO2 IS NOT A POLLUTANT. WE BREATHE OUT LOTS OF CO2, ABOUT 2 POUNDS A DAY. THE AUDIENCE IS PUTTING OUT A LOT OF CO2 IN THIS ROOM AND I HAVE A METER. I MEASURED THE CO2 OUTSIDE ON THE BALCONY AND IT WAS ABOUT 400PPM. OUR BREATH IS NOT THAT DIFFERENT FROM THE OUTPUT OF A POWER PLANT THAT BURNS COAL, OR NATURAL GAS, OR OIL AND THE FLUE GAS COMING OFF THE STACK IS MOSTLY NITROGEN, A LITTLE BIT OF LEFTOVER OXYGEN, AND WATER VAPOR AND CO2. WHAT WE BREATHE OUT IS NOT VERY DIFFERENT EXCEPT FOR A HIGHER LEVEL OF OF OXYGEN IN OUR RESPIRATION. OTHERWISE IT IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE FLUE GAS OF THE POWER PLANT EXCEPT THAT THE POWER PLANT HAS A LITTLE MORE CO2 AND CORRESPONDINGLY LESS OXYGEN. SO OUR BREATH IS DEFINITELY NOT A POLLUTANT AND IN FACT OUR BREATHING REFLEX IS DETERMINED ENTIRELY BY CO2, IT’S NOT DETERMINED BY OXYGEN.

THIS IS MY WIFE BARBARA IN NEW JERSEY AND BEHIND HER IS A NEW SOLAR FARM. AND WE’VE SEEN HOW WELL SOLAR FARMS AND WINDMILLS WORK IN TEXAS, AND, THEY NEVER DID WORK TERRIBLY WELL BUT WE NEED TO BE GRATEFUL TO NATURE, SHE SEEMS TO HAVE A SENSE OF HUMOR AND SHE TAUGHT US A GOOD LESSON IN TEXAS I THINK ALTHOUGH PEOPLE TEND TO BE SLOW LEARNERS. THE PROBLEM WITH RENEWABLE ENERGY, SOLAR AND WIND, IS THAT THEY TAKE UP A LOT OF SPACE, I PREFER THE NICE AND GREEN FIELD THAT WAS THERE BEFORE IT WAS COVERED UP. SOLAR PANELS DON’T WORK AT ALL AT NIGHT SO YOU NEED SOMETHING ELSE THAT WILL PROVIDE ELECTRICAL POWER AT NIGHT. THEY DON’T WORK ON CLOUDY DAYS AND THEY DON’T WORK TERRIBLY WELL IN THE WINTER WHEN THE SUN IS LOW. IT’S PURE VIRTUE SIGNALING. THEY MAKE NO ECONOMIC SENSE BUT THEY ARE MASSIVELY SUBSIDIZED BY STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS. .

HERE IS AN EARLY WIND FARM IN CALIFORNIA. IT’S BEGINNING TO FALL TO PIECES BUT ALL WIND FARMS FALL TO PIECES AND NOBODY KNOWS HOW WE’RE GOING TO DISPOSE OF ALL OF THIS JUNK WHEN IT NO LONGER WORKS AND THEY CAN’T BE RECYCLED. IT HAS MUCH THE SAME PROBLEMS AS SOLAR. WHEN I WAS A KID PEOPLE DIDN’T SIT IN FRONT OF COMPUTER SCREENS ALL DAY AND LOOK AT SIMULATIONS OF THE WORLD BUT YOU COULD GO OUTSIDE AND LOOK AT THE CLOUDS OR WHAT THE WEATHER WAS LIKE AND LOOK AT THE CLOUDS AND IN THOSE DAYS PEOPLE KNEW THAT THE WIND BLOWS WHEN IT WANTS TO AND SOMETIMES IT BLOWS AND SOMETIMES IT DOESN’T. AND WE SAW LAST WEEK IT DIDN’T BLOW VERY MUCH AND WHEN IT STARTED TO BLOW IT WAS BLOWING ICE FROM THE WINDMILL BLADES AND THAT DIDN’T DO ANY GOOD. RENEWABLE ENERGY IS REALLY WHAT I WOULD CALL THE INVERSE ROBIN HOOD STRATEGY WHERE YOU ROB FROM THE POOR TO GIVE TO THE RICH. UTILITIES ARE PERMITTED TO RAISE RATES BECAUSE OF THE CAPITAL INVESTMENT IN INEFFICIENT AND UNRELIABLE RENEWABLES. THEY JUNK FULLY DEPRECIATED COAL, GAS, AND NUCLEAR PLANTS ALL OF WHICH ARE WORKING BEAUTIFULLY PRODUCING INEXPENSIVE RELIABLE ENERGY BUT REGULATED PROFITS ARE MUCH LESS. SO TAXPAYERS SUBSIDIZE THE RICH WHO CAN AFFORD TO LEASE LAND FOR WIND AND SOLAR POWER. THE TAX INCENTIVE PANDERS TO THE UPPPER CLASS IN GATED COMMUNITIES. PEOPLE WHO CAN AFFORD TO BUY TESLA ELECTRIC CARS WITH SUBSIDIES FROM THE STATE AND FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AND OFTEN WITH SUBSIDIES FOR THE ELECTRICAL POWER TO CHARGE UP THEIR TOYS. AND THE COMMON PEOPLE HAVE LITTLE SPARE INCOME. THEY PAY MORE AND MORE FOR THE NECESSITIES OF LIFE IN ORDER TO SUBSIDIZE THE RICH.

NOW, YOU CAN’T SPEND A LIFETIME AS A PROFESSOR AND NOT RELAPSE FROM TIME TO TIME FROM GIVING A CLASSROOM LECTURE SO YOU’LL HAVE TO EXPECT TO LECTURED TO NOW FOR A FEW MINUTES. AND THE GOOD THING IS THERE WILL BE NO QUIZ. BUT THOSE OF YOU THAT SHARE MY VIEW HAT THIS CLIMATE HYSTERIA IS NONSENSE, IT HELPS IF YOU KNOW WHAT THE FACTS ARE. SO I HOPE I CAN ARM SOME OF YOU WITH THE REAL SCIENTIFIC FACTS.

CLIMATE SCIENCE: THIS IS A PICTURE OF THE OVERALL CIRCULATIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HERE ON THE EARTH – AROUND THE EARTH. AND THE THING THAT KEEPS US WARM ON EARTH IS THE SUN. EVERYBODY KNOWS THAT. EVERYTHING WARMS UP WHEN THE SUN COMES UP AT DAWN AND ITS NICE AND WARM AT LEAST IN SUMMERTIME AND EARLY AFTERNOON AND IT COOLS OFF AT NIGHT. AND THE EARTH IS WARMED MOSTLY IN THE TROPICS THE REDDISH AREA ON THIS CHART HERE. THAT’S WHERE THE SUN IS MOST NEARLY OVERHEAD AT NOON AND SO THERE IS MORE SOLAR ENERGY COMING IN ON THE TROPICS AND IT GOES OUT AS COOLING RADIATION AS EARTH RADIATES THE ABSORBED SOLAR ENERGY OUT TO SPACE. SO WE COOL, OUR EARTH COOLS BY RADIATING OUT INTO THE VERY COLD SPACE AND BY WARMING UP FROM THE SUNLIGHT SHINING DURING THE DAY. SO CLIMATE INVOLVES A COMPLICATED INTERPLAY OF THE SUNLIGHT THAT WARMS US, THE THERMAL INFRA RED RADIATION THAT GOES OUT INTO SPACE AND THE TRANSPORT OF ITS HEAT BOTH BY RADIATION AND THE MOTION THE AIR AND THE WATER, FOR EXAMPLE THE GULF STREAM THAT CARRIES HUGE AMOUNTS OF HEAT TO NORTHERN EUROPE, EVEN TO RUSSIA. AND THESE CURRENTS OF AIR IN THE ATMOSPHERE ALSO CARRY A LOT OF HEAT. SINCE WE ARE IN PHOENIX, LET ME POINT OUT THAT

WHAT WE HAVE PRESENTED ABOVE IS THE FIRST 1/3 OF THE VIDEO. IT CONTINUES IN THIS MANNER FOR ANOTHER HALF AN HOUR OR SO AND MAY BE VIEWED ON YOUTUBE AT THE LINK BELOW. MY COMMENTARY BELOW THEREFORE APPLIES ONLY TO THE FIRST 16 MINUTES OF THE VIDEO.

SOME COMMENTS ON THE FIRST 16.2 MINUTES OF THIS VIDEO

THE COMPARISON OF THE CLIMATE MOVEMENT WITH THE MEDIEVAL CRUSADE IS BRILLIANTLY DONE. THIS COMPARISON YIELDS IMPORTANT INSIGHTS INTO THE RELIGIOUS FERVOUR OF THE MOVEMENT AND ITS VILIFICATION OF “DENEIRS”. AS FURTHER SUPPORT FOR THIS VIEW, WE NOTE IN THE HOME PAGE OF THIS BLOG: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/ AS FOLLOWS: {IF CLIMATE SCIENCE IS SCIENCE THEN CHALLENGING CLIMATE SCIENCE IS ALSO SCIENCE, A GOOD AND DESIREABLE THING BECAUSE THAT IS HOW SCIENCE ADVANCES. BUT IF CLIMATE SCIENCE IS RELIGION THEN CHALLENGING CLIMATE SCIENCE IS HERESY AND A BAD THING AND THE CHALLENGERS ARE HERETICAL CLIMATE DENIERS.}

AS FURTHER SUPPORT FOR THE CRUSADE ANALOGY WE PRESENT IN A RELATED POST ON THIS SITE OUR INTERPRETATION OF THE CLIMATE MOVEMENT IN TERMS OF THE SUPERSTITION AND CONFIRMATION BIAS NATURE OF HUMANS: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/03/confirmationbias/ WHERE WE NOTE AS FOLLOWS:

The human instinct to identify cause and effect in nature and to manipulate natural forces for his benefit works over a wide spectrum from rational and scientific to religion, superstition, and witchcraft. Weather and climate are significant forces of nature to which man is constantly exposed and which he has overcome somewhat by adapting caves and building homes to shelter him from the weather. However, weather and climate extremes both short term weather change such as storms, temperature extremes, and precipitation extremes, and long term climate change to excessive dryness, excessive wetness, or long term transitions to warmer or colder temperatures are significant threats to man’s ability to survive and prosper. Yet, neither weather nor climate are stable and predictable but are subject to the random and chaotic whims of nature particularly so at brief time scales and small geographical extents.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE PRESENTATION, IT APPEARS TO BE A WANDERING COLLECTION OF THOUGHTS OF A WISE MAN ON THE CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUE OF OUR TIME

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFIC ISSUES:

(1) HE GOES TO GREAT LENGHTS, EVEN PRESENTING PICTURES OF POLLUTION IN SHANGHAI TO MAKE THE CASE THAT CO2 IS NOT POLLUTION. THIS EXTRAORDINARY DIVERSION INTO A POLLUTION ISSUE IS MYSTERIOUS.

THE CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUE IS NOT THAT CO2 IS POLLUTION BUT THAT THE CO2 EMISSIONS FROM BURNING FOSSIL FUELS CAUSE ATMOSPHERIC CO2 TO RISE. THAT’S ALL. THIS IS THE WHOLE OF THE CASE AGAINST CO2 AND IT IS NOT AGAINST ALL CO2 AND CERTAINLY NOT AGAINST CARBON CYCLE CO2 AS IN HUMAN RESPIRATION BUT ONLY AGAINST CO2 FROM BURNING FOSSIL FUELS.

(2) IN THE COMPARISON OF THE POWER PLANT’S “BREATH” AND ALICE’S BREATH” HE FINDS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN OXYGEN WHERE ALICE IS 3X THE POWER PLANT AND NOTES SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE CO2 BUT NOT MUCH. YET, THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IS IN THE CO2 WHERE THE POWER PLANT PERCENTAGE EXCEEDS ALICE’S PERCENTAGE BY A FACTOR OF 4.

BESIDES, WHAT IS THE POINT OF STUDYING THE COMPOSITION OF HUMAN RESPIRATION? THESE PERCENTAGES ARE IRRELEVANT TO AGW THEORY. THE TOTAL FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS OF THE INDUSTRIAL ECONOMY CAN BE MEASURED AND IT IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 36 GIGATONNES PER YEAR AND CLIMATE SCIENCE HAS DETERMINED THAT ABOUT HALF OF IT STAYS IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND CAUSES ATMOSPHERIC CO2 TO RISE.

THIS IS THE ONLY CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUE WITH RESPECT TO CO2. THE LECTURE ON POLLUTION AND THE COMPOSITION OF ALICE’S BREATH AND THE COMPOSITION OF POWER PLANT BREATH DO NOT APPEAR TO BE RELEVANT IN THIS CONTEXT.

(3): HIS CRITIQUE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY IS THAT RENEWABLE ENERGY IS NOT AS RELIABLE AS FOSSIL FUELS AND NOT ECONOMICALLY COMPETITIVE WITH FOSSIL FUELS. YET, CLIMATE SCIENCE DOES NOT CLAIM THAT RENEWABLE ENERGY IS MORE RELIABLE AND MORE ECONOMICAL THAN FOSSIL FUELS. THE CLIMATE SCIENCE CASE FOR RENEWABLES IS NOT THAT THEY ARE A BETTER ENERGY PROVIDER THAN FOSSIL FUELS NOR THAT THEY MAKE ECONOMIC SENSE BUT THAT IT’S SOMETHING WE CAN USE TO GET RID OF FOSSIL FUELS THE COMBUSTION OF WHICH CAUSES GLOBAL WARMING.

THE CLIMATE SCIENCE POSITION IS THAT RENEWABLES WILL PUT A BURDEN ON US BUT THAT IT IS A BURDEN WE MUST TAKE TO AVOID THE GREATER BURDEN OF CONTINUED WARMING BEYOND 1.5C. THERE ARE VALID ARGUMENTS AGAINST THE CLIMATE SCIENCE POSITION ON RENEWWABLE ENERGY AS FOR EXAMPLE INTERMITTENCY AND UNRELIABILITY SUCH THAT THEY ARE NOT A VALID ALTERNATIVE TO FOSSIL FUELS.

(4): FINALLY, IN HIS PRESENTATION OF CLIMATE SCIENCE WHERE HE SAYS “IT IS THE SUN” THAT CREATES THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CYCLE AND THE SEASONS AND IT IS THE SUN THAT MAKES THE TROPICS WARMER THAN THE GREATER LATITUDES IS MYSTERIOUS IN THE CONTEXT OF THE THEORY OF AGW CLIMATE CHANGE WHERE THE ISSUE IS LONG TERM RISE IN GLOBAL MEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE. THE LONG AND MYSTERIOUS LECTURE ABOUT DIURNAL CYCLES, SEASONS, AND ABOUT HIGHER TEMPERATURES IN THE TROPICS DO NOT APPPEAR TO BE VERY RELEVANT IN THE AGW CONTEXT.

POSTSCRIPT: FOR THE RECORD, I AM A CLIMATE DENIER AND I WATCHED THIS VIDEO AND TOOK NOTES HOPING TO FIND USEFUL INFORMATION FOR US CLIMATE DENIERS. I DID FIND THE ANALOGY TO THE INQUISITION TO BE INSIGHTFUL AND HELPFUL BUT THE REST OF THE VIDEO APPEARS TO BE AN IMPORMPTU CHAT SESSION.

WE CLOSE WITH GRATITUDE AND RESPECT FOR THE SUPPORT HE HAS PROVIDED TO THE DENIER COMMUNITY WITH HIS PUBLISHED POSITION THAT HE DISAGREES WITH THE CONSENSUS SCIENCE ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND THAT HIS POSITION IS THAT CO2 IS INDEED A GREENHOUSE GAS, THAT A SMALL FRACTION OF THE 1C WARMING SINCE PRE-INDUSTRIAL MAY INDEED BE DUE TO THE HEAT TRAPPING EFFECT OF CO2, BUT THAT THE GREATER PART OF THE WARMING MUST BE UNDERSTOOD AS NATURAL VARIABILITY. AND WE THANK HIM AGAIN FOR THE INSIGHT THAT COMPARES THE CLIMATE CONSENSUS MOVEMENT TO THE INQUISITION.

What Is The Thai Wai (ไหว้) And How To Do It | Thai With Grace

William Happer - DeSmog

Katrina Q&A: New Orleans before and after the historic storm


QUESTION: Which part of our United States has/is affected (the hardest) by climate change? Why?

ANSWER: New Orleans is the part of the United States that has been hit the hardest by climate change, I would think. Or maybe Greater New Orleans.

REMEMBERING HURRICANE KATRINA THE YEAR OF OUR LORD 2005:

The devastation of Hurricane Katrina in the greater New Orleans area with winds and floods not only caused immense human suffering in the region over an extended period of time, it also created great political havoc in the Bush presidency and this hurricane played a role in creating the climate activism presidency of Obama where the campaign relied heavily on blaming Bush for the destruction of New Orleans by climate change with charges of racism that was thought to be implied by the large black population of the affected area.

HOW HURRICANE KATRINA CHANGED CLIMATE SCIENCE

The claimed causal connection between AGW climate change and the destructiveness of tropical cyclones did not emerge from the science nor from an extensive study of historical data but from an unlikely event in 2005 when Hurricane Katrina damaged a levee system that had not been properly maintained. The damage to the levee caused a catastrophic flooding of New Orleans that became the signature issue in the destructiveness of Hurricane Katrina. The role of levee management in the destruction was downplayed and forgotten and the entire destruction was thus attributed to fossil fueled climate change with the subsumed climate action lesson of Katrina being that such destruction can and must be attenuated by reducing and eventually eliminating the use of fossil fuels.

HURRICANE KATRINA HISTORICAL NOTES

CLIMATE SCIENCE WAS QUICK TO USE KATRINA TO PUSH THEIR CLIMATE ACTION AGENDA AGAINST FOSSIL FUELS. The official position of the Climate Science agency of the UN called the IPCC that is thought to be a global authority on climate change issues declared in 2005 that HURRICANE KATRINA WAS A CREATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND THAT IT WAS THE HARBINGER OF WORSE YET TO COME IN THE ABSENCE OF CLIMATE ACTIONThe IPCC claimed that it had the scientific evidence to prove that our use of fossil fuels caused Hurricane Katrina to forecast with a great certainty that there was more to come in the 2006 hurricane season.

BUT the 2006 hurricane season turned out to be milder than normal. The IPCC blamed the dissipation of El Nino for the mild hurricane season in 2006 and issued a new warning that 2007 will be the hottest year on record and will bring a killer hurricane season worse than 2005 but the 2007 forecast also failed. The IPCC’s dream hurricane season finally arrived in 2008 unannounced and unexpected with a large number of strong hurricanes. Even so, climate science and its spokesman the IPCC declared that Hurricane Katrina was the harbinger of killer super storms yet to come created by fossil fueled global warming.

Kerry Emanuel: This year's hurricanes are a taste of the future | MIT News  | Massachusetts Institute of Technology

THE KERRY EMANUEL PAPER

The horror of this once in a lifetime hurricane is preserved for us by MIT climate scientist extraordinaire Professor Kerry Emanuel in his now famous research paper that shows how CLIMATE CHANGE increases the DESTRUCTIVENESS OF HURRICANES.

A critical review of this paper is provided in a related post linked below:

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/09/18/climate-change-hurricanes/

HERE ARE SOME HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE POST ON THE EMANUEL PAPER

(1) KERRY WAS LOOKING FOR A CORRELATION BETWEEN AGW TEMPERATURE AND THE STRENGHT OF OF NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANES IN A 56-YEAR STUDY PERIOD WHICH HE HAD DEFINED AS 1949-2004. THE CONVENTION IN THE SCIENCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IS THAT THE MEASURE OF THE STRENGTH OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS WHAT IS CALLED “ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY” OR ACE DERIVED FROM THE SQUARE OF WIND VELOCITY. BUT NO SUCH CORRELATION WAS FOUND IN THE DATA. WHAT DO DO????

(2) SO HE DECIDED TO CUBE THE VEOLCITIES INSTEAD OF SQUARING THEM TO SEE IF HE COULD FIND A CORRELATION. SINCE THERE IS NO PARAMETER IN CYCLONE SCIENCE THAT INVOLVES THE CUBE OF THE VELOCITY, HE GAVE HIS NEW CUBED PARAMETER A NAME THAT HE INVENTED AND CALLED IT “PDI” OR “POWER DISSIPATION INDEX”. BUT STILL NO CORRELATION. WHAT DO DO????

(3) AT THIS POINT HE FIGURED THAT THE PROBLEM WAS THAT THERE WAS NOT MUCH VARIABILITY IN THE OLDER YEARS IN HIS STUDY PERIOD OF 1949-2004 AND DECIDED THAT HE WOULD FIND THE CORRELATION HE IS LOOKING FOR IF HE THREW OUT THE OLDER YEARS. THE STUDY PERIOD WAS THUS RE-DEFINED AS THE 30-YEAR PERIOD 1975-2004. AT THIS POINT A RISING TREND IS SEEN IN THE PDI 1975-2004 HALLELUJA! BUT THE CORRELATION IS NOT STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE OF THE LARGE YEAR TO YEAR VARIANCE IN THE DATA. WHAT TO DO????

(4) SO THE WISE AND DETERMINED CLIMATE SCIENTIST TOOK 5-YEAR MOVING AVERAGES OF THE DATA TO SMOOTH OUT ALL THAT VARIANCE AND FIND A STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT CORRELATION BUT ALAS, NO STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE WAS FOUND EVEN AT THE 0.05 LEVEL. WHAT TO DO????

(5) BEING A VERY INTELLIGENT MAN AND A PROFESSOR AT MIT HE DECIDED TO TAKE A 5-YEAR MOVING AVERAGE OF THE 5-YEAR MOVING AVERAGES, ESSENTIALLY A 10-YEAR MOVING AVERAGE TO SMOOTH OUT THE VARIANCE SOME MORE. AND VOILA! GOD HAVE MERCY! THERE IT WAS! A STATISTICALLY SIGNFICANT CORRELATION BETWEEN GLOBAL WARMING TEMPERATURE AND THE DESTRUCTIVENESS OF NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANES. BINGO! DONE! AND PUBLISHED! WITH GREAT FANFARE.

(6) THE AUTHOR APPARENTLY FORGOT THAT WHEN YOU TAKE MOVING AVERAGES YOU LOSE DEGREES OF FREEDOM AND SO DID NOT TAKE THAT EFFECT INTO ACCOUNT AND USED THE HIGHER DEGREES OF FREEDOM HE HAD BEFORE HE TOOK MOVING AVERAGES. BUT ANYWAY HIS PAPER IS PUBLISHED IN A PEER REVIEWED JOURNAL AND IS TAKEN AS THE FOUNDATION AND THE BASIS OF THE CLIMATE SCIENCE AND IPCC POSITION THAT GLOBAL WARMING INCREASES HURRICANE DESTRUCTIVENESS.

(7) BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE. A FAMOUS PAPER KNOWN AS “KNUTSON ETAL 2010” WHERE KERRY EMANUEL IS A CO-AUTHOR, AND NOAA CLIMATE SCENTIST TOM KNUTSON WAS THE LEAD AUTHOR SAYS THIS: Tropical cyclones and climate change.” Nature geoscience 3.3 (2010): 157-163. In the paper, Tom Knutson (photo below) spells out exactly what climate science claims in terms of the impact of AGW climate change on tropical cyclones with climate model predictions of the effect of rising SST on tropical cyclones. His main points are as follows: (1) Globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones will rise as AGW increases SST. Models predict globally averaged intensity increase of 2% to 11% by 2100. (2). Models predict falling globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones with frequency decreasing 6%-34% by 2100. (3). The globally averaged frequency of “most intense tropical cyclones” should increase as a result of AGW. The intensity of tropical cyclones is measured as the ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy). (4). Models predict increase in precipitation within a 100 km radius of the storm center. A precipitation rise of 20% is projected for the year 2100. (5) Extremely high variance in tropical cyclone data at an annual time scale suggests longer, perhaps a decadal time scale which in turn greatly reduces statistical power. (6) Model projections for individual cyclone basins show large differences and conflicting results. Thus, no testable implication can be derived for studies of individual basins.

IT IS NOTED THAT THERE ARE SIX TROPICAL CYCLONE BASINS IN THE WORLD AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC BASIN WHERE TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE CALLED HURRICANES, IS JUST ONE OF THEM. THE KNUTSON ETAL PAPER SAYS IN EFFECT THAT A STUDY OF THE IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON TROPICAL CYCLONES HAS TO INCLUDE ALL SIX CYCLONE BASINS AND THAT NO MEANINGFUL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN THE STUDY OF A SINGLE TROPICAL CYCLONE BASIN. IT GOES FURTHER TO SAY THAT BECAUSE OF LARGE DECADAL VARIABILITY IN THE DATA THE STUDY PERIOD MUST BE MUCH LONGER THAN 30 YEARS. THE KNUTSON PAPER ALSO SPECIFIES THAT THE CYCLONE VARIABILITY TO STUDY MUST BE THE ACE.

KNUTSON ETAL 2010 PROVIDES MORE EVIDENCE THAT THE FOUNDATIONAL PAPER BY KERRY EMANUEL ON THE DESTRUCTIVENESS OF HURRICANES BY GLOBAL WARMING IS FLAWED IN MULTIPLE WAYS AND UNACCEPTABLE AS EVIDENCE THAT GLOBAL WARMING CAUSES HURRICANES TO BECOME MORE DESTRUCTIVE. THE KEY ROLE PLAYED BY KATRINA AND THE EMANUEL PAPER IS THUS A MYSTERY THAT IMPLIES THAT ACTIVISM IS MORE IMPORTANT IN CLIMATE SCIENCE THAN SCIENCE ALTHOUGH THERE ARE ARE GOOD SCIENTISTS LIKE KNUTSON IN CLIMATE SCIENCE.

TOM KNUTSON

A FAILED OBSESSION WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES | Thongchai Thailand

TRAPPIST-1 - SYSTEM Sounds

THIS POST IS A BRIEF OVERVIEW OF THE PLANETARY RESONANCE THEORY {ALSO KNOWN AS THE TIDAL CYCLE THEORY} OF EARTH’S SURFACE TEMPERATURE DYNAMICS AT CENTENNIAL AND MILLENNIAL TIME SCALES.

THE DETAILS AND BIBLIOGRAPHY OF THIS LINE OF RESEARCH ARE PROVIDED IN A RELATED POST:

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/05/tidalcyclesbiblio/

TWO SIGNIFICANT RESEARCH PAPERS IN THIS FIELD ARE (1) KEELING&WHORF 2000 AND VOISIN 2020. THERE ARE MANY OTHERS. A BIBLIOGRAPHY IS PROVIDED BELOW AND ALSO IN THE RELATED POST LINKED ABOVE. IT IS NOTED THAT THE PRINCIPAL AUTHOR OF THE KEELING AND WHORF PAPER IS CHARLES D. KEELING (PICTURED BELOW) WHOSE ATMOSPHERIC CO2 DATA ARE USED BY CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENTISTS TO EXPLAIN THE CURRENT WARMING TREND OF THE HOLOCENE INTERGLACIAL.

How Charles Keeling Measured the Rise of Carbon Dioxide | JSTOR Daily

THE ISSUE IN THIS POST IS THE OBSERVED WARMING AND COOLING TEMPERATURE CYCLES OF THE HOLOCENE INTERGLACIAL AT CENTENNIAL AND MILLENIAL TIME SCALES OVER THE LAST 10,000 YEARS OR SO DESCRIBED IN A RELATED POST AT THIS SITE: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/05/12/human-cause-in-the-anthropocene/

WHERE WE NOTE THE ODDITY THAT CLIMATE SCIENCE EXPLAINS THIS PHENOMENON IN TERMS OF THE DATA FOR ONLY ONE OF THE NINE SUCH TEMPERATURE EXCURSION EVENTS, BOTH WARMING AND COOLING, OF THE HOLOCENE INTERGLACIAL. A BIBLIOGRAPHY OF THIS RESEARCH IS PROVIDED IN A RELATE POST https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/06/11/chaoticholocene/

BRIEFLY, SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE EXCURSIONS OF THE HOLOCENE INCLUDE THE YOUNGER DRYAS COOLING OF 15C, A 17C WARMING RECOVERY FROM THE YOUNGER DRYAS, THE 8.2K COOLING EVENT, THE HOLOCENE CLIMATE OPTIMUM WARMING EVENT, COOLING THEREAFTER, THEN WARMING AGAIN IN THE MINOAN WARM PERIOD, THEN COOLING AGAIN, AND THE ROMAN WARM PERIOD, AND THEN COOLING AGAIN, FOLLOWED BY THE MEDIEVAL WARM PERIOD, AND THEN COOLING AGAIN IN THE LIA, FOLLOWED BY THE CURRENT WARM PERIOD.

THESE TEMPERATURE DYNAMICS HAVE OCCURRED AT CENTENNIAL TO MILLENNIAL TIME SCALES, THE SAME TIME SCALE AT WHICH WE FIND WILD SWINGS IN TEMPERATURE IN THE PREVIOUS INTERGLACIAL, THE EEMIAN, AND IN THE CHAOTIC SWINGS IN TEMPERATURE DURING GLACIATION AND DEGLACIATION.

THE SCIENCE THAT CLAIMS TO UNDERSTAND THESE TEMPERATURE CYCLES AS CAUSE AND EFFECT PHENOMENA SHOULD EXPLAIN ALL OF THEM BUT THE ONLY CLIMATE SCIENCE ON OFFER FOR INTERGLACIAL TEMPERATURE DYNAMICS OF THE HOLOCENE IS THE OBSERVATION THAT THE BEGINNING OF THE CURRENT WARM PERIOD COINCIDES WITH THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION. BASED ON THAT A THEORY IS CONSTRUCTED THAT EXPLAINS THE WARMING IN TERMS THE POSSIBLE CAUSES WE CAN FIND IN THE INDUSTRIAL ECONOMY AS FOR EXAMPLE THE BURNING OF FOSSIL FUELS BY THE INDUSTRIAL ECONOMY.

THIS KIND OF SCIENCE SUFFERS FROM CONFIRMATIN BIAS, DATA SELECTION BIAS, AND THE SO CALLED TEXAS SHARPSHOOTER FALLACY AND IS THEREFORE NOT A CREDIBLE EXPLANATION FOR THE WARMING AND THE UNIQUE FEATURES OF THE CURRENT WARM PERIOD SUCH AS THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION DO NOT EXPLAIN THE OTHER WARMING CYCLES OF THE HOLOCENE. THE CLIMATE SCIENCE EXPLANATION FOR THIS KIND OF DATA SELECTION BIAS IS THE ILLOGIC THAT THE CURRENT WARM PERIOD IS WARMER THAN THE OTHER WARM PERIODS AND THAT THEREFORE THE OTHER WARM PERIODS DON’T NEED EXPLAINING.

The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy | Idea Channel | PBS Digital Studios -  YouTube

THESE ARE THE FAILINGS OF THE SCIENCE OF THE CURRENT WARM PERIOD THAT HAS CAUSED IT TO LOSE CREDIBILITY AND TO CREATE SKEPTICS THAT CLIMATE SCIENTISTS CALL “DENIERS”. VILIFICATION OF CRITICAL EVALUATION HAS BEEN SUCCESSFUL PARTICULARLY SO IN THE MEDIA AND IN THE CONTEXT OF POLITICS, AND AN ENVIRONMENTAL MOVEMENT WHERE HUMANS ARE ASSUMED TO BE AN EVIL DESTRUCTIVE FORCE THAT HARMS NATURE. BUT WHEN POLITICS AND ACTIVISM ARE REMOVED FROM THIS EVALUATION IT EXPOSES THE CONFIRMATION BIAS OF CLIMATE SCIENCE AND THE NECESSITY THAT A PROPOSED SCIENCE OF INTERGLACIAL TEMPERATURE CYCLES SHOULD EXPLAIN ALL OF THEM AND NOT PICK JUST ONE OF THEM TO EXPLAIN.

WE PROPOSE THAT THE TIDAL CYCLE THEORY OF GRAVITATIONAL INTERACTION AND RESONANCE TO EXPLAIN ALL THE HOLOCENE TEMPERATURE CYCELES IS SUPERIOR ON THIS BASIS AND SHOULD BE GIVEN DUE CONSIDERATION IN THE CLIMATE CHANGE DEBATE RATHER THAN DISCREDITED BECAUSE IT IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH THE CLIMATE SCIENCE ON OFFER. HOW CAN MEANINGFUL DEBATE BE CARRIED OUT IF DISAGREEMENT WITH THE THEORY ON OFFER DISCREDITS THE DISAGREEMENT? THAT KIND OF LOGIC IS SEEN ONLY IN RELIGION. IT IS NOT FOUND IN SCIENCE OUTSIDE OF CLIMATE SCIENCE.

Quotes about Religion and science (269 quotes)
  1. THE TIDAL CYCLE THEORY OF CLIMATE CHANGE EXPLAINS THE 12,000 YEAR HISTORY OF MILLENNIAL SCALE WARMING AND COOLING CYCLES OF THE HOLOCENE. IN CONTRAST, THE AGW CLIMATE CHANGE THEORY EXPLAINS ONLY THE POST LIA WARMING SINCE THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION BUT HAS NO EXPLANATION FOR THE OTHER WARMING AND COOLING CYCLES OF THE HOLOCENE.
  2. THE KEELING AND WHORF 2000 PAPER CONSIDERS THE CLIMATE EFFECTS OF GRAVITATIONAL INTERACTIONS AMONG SUN, EARTH, AND MOON. THE VOISIN 2020 PAPER ALSO INCLUDES GRAVITATIONAL INTERACTION BETWEEN EARTH AND VENUS.
  3. TIDES ARE THE CREATION OF GRAVITATIONAL INTERACTIONS BETWEEN EARTH, SUN, AND MOON AND THE ENERGY CREATED ON EARTH BY THESE INTERACTIONS CAN NOT ONLY CREATE TIDES BUT ALSO CHANGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE. THE PAPER BY VOISIN ALSO INCLUDES THE EFFECT OF THE GRAVITATIONAL TUG-OF-WAR RELATIONSHIP AMONG THE PLANETS ON WHAT HE CALLS A PERTURBATION OF THE EARTH’S INTERNAL GEOTHERMAL HEAT IN THE MANTLE AND CORE. {VOISIN 2020}. A NUMBER OF PAPERS BY VOISIN, BY KEELING AND WHORF, AND BY A NUMBER OF OTHER AUTHORS ARE LISTED IN THE BIBILIOGRAPHY BELOW.

  1. IN GENERAL, THE MECHANISM OF THE WARMING EFFECT IS PROPOSED AS PERIODIC RESONANCE IN THE GRAVITATIONAL INTERACTION AMONG EARTH, MOON, SUN, AND VENUS ALTHOUGH NOT ALL AUTHORS INCLUDE VENUS. IT IS PROPOSED IN THESE PAPERS THAT THE ENERGY TRANSFERS THUS CAUSED EXPLAIN THE CYCLES OF WARMING AND COOLING ONEARTH OVER THE 12,000 YEARS OF THE HOLOCENE.
  2. A STUDY OF THE CURRENT WARMING PERIOD AS AN ISOLATED AND UNIQUE EVENT THAT CAN ONLY BE EXPLAINED IN TERMS OF HUMAN INTERVENTION IN TERMS OF THE INDUSTRIAL ECONOMY IS INCONSISENT WITH THE BIG PICTURE WHERE WE FIND WARMING AND COOLING EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF THE INDUSTRIAL ECONOMY OF HUMANS.
  3. THE INDUSTRIAL ECONOMY CLIMATE CHANGE THEORY COMMITS THE FALLACY OF THE DATA SELECTION BIAS AND CONFIRMATION BIAS IN TERMS OF THE SELECTION OF JUST ONE OF THE MANY TEMPERATURE EXCURESIONS OF THE HOLOCENE TO EXPLAIN.
  4. CLOSING STATEMENT BY KEELING AND WHORF: The details of the tidal hypothesis are complex. There is much about tidal forcing that we do not know but there is much that we do know that could contribute to our understanding of the temperature cycles of the Holocene. Should the tidal hypothesis of quasi-periodic cooling of the oceans turn out to be correct the temprarture cycles in the whole of the Holocene will be understood as natural variability.

SOME GRAPHICS FROM THE KEELING AND WHORF PAPER

FIGURE 1Varying strength in tide raising forces. Each event, shown by a vertical line, gives a measure of the forcing in terms of the angular velocity of the moon, γ, in arc degrees per day, at the time of the event. Arcs connect events of strong 18.03-year tidal sequences. Centennial maxima are labeled, with the final one, “D”, occurring in A.D. 2151.

Figure 1

FIGURE 2: Millennial periodicity in tide raising forces since 500 B.C. The angular velocity, γ, was computed from functions listed in Table 2. Events of a 180-year cycle, all at full moon, are labeled with times of occurrence (B.C. or A.D.). The 1,800-year cycle is evident as a progression of solar-lunar declination difference, listed at the top of the figure in degrees of arc of the moon above (or below) the ecliptic.

Figure 2

FIGURE 3: Varying strength of the global tide raising forces with parameters that reveal the basis for the 1,800- and 5,000-year tidal cycles, as described in the text. The plots are for a hypothetical 110-kyr sequence of tidal events beginning with the moon, sun, and earth in perfect alignment and closest approach (zero separation-intervals), producing a maximum γ of 17.165° per day never again attained. Tidal events occurring near peaks in the 5,000-year cycle (near zero crossings of top plot) are connected by straight lines to reveal their pattern (which includes a 23-kyr cycle not discussed in the text).

Figure 3

FIGURE 4: Multitaper spectral analysis of glacial-Holocene petrologic events from cores VM 29–191 and VM 23–81 compared with periodicities in tidal forcing. Overlain in red are the averages of the 1,800- and 5,000-year tidal periods (A) and times of peak forcing of the former cycle (B). Tidal timing and periodicity assume invariant orbital parameters, except for the 5,800-year period that is based on assuming secular variability of climatic precession, as described in the “Secular Variations in Tidal Forcing”

Figure 4

TIDAL CYCLES  AND CLIMATE CHANGE BIBLIOGRAPHY

  1. 2020: Ronald Voisin, An Engineer’s Theory of Climate Change, [PDF DOWNLOAD]: ABSTRACT: General Circulation Models of the climate have been developed by several countries of the world. These enormously expensive endeavors are alleged to include every imaginable climate forcing function. The authors of the Models assume that the Sun is the sole energy provider to the Earth climate system. And while the exothermic nature of the Earth is well recognized, it is further assumed that Earth’s internal heat generation is both temporally and spatially averaged to an inconsequentially small level, so as to be appropriately disregarded as a climatic issue. This misstep has led to the “CO2 is the climate control knob” meme. This essay re-asserts that constructive interference of gravitationally induced resonant modulations to the surface release of Earth’s internal heat generation are, in fact, the climate control knob on many, if not all, time scales. This essay further points to new Modeling directions that might more readily predict future climate events than current efforts are capable. IntroductionBroadly speaking, Earth’s climate alternates between two different states. One recurring state is commonly known as an Interglacial. It might well be considered a solar-albedo high-temperature latch. The Earth has been in this state for the last 11.5ky or so and this current interglacial is commonly known as the Holocene. These interglacials are relatively short lived periods characterized by relatively high solar absorption. Intrinsically these higher temperature periods are lower in entropy and therefore more difficult to achieve and sustain. But the relatively high solar absorption does, in fact, create a “latch” to this state, such that it should not be easily changed. The other recurring state is commonly known as glaciation. These relatively longer periods are characterized by relatively low solar absorption. Here too the relatively low solar absorption creates a “latch” such that this state should not be easily changed either. The causations to force transitions between these two “latched” states are of great interest. The down-temperature transition from interglacial to glaciation is lengthy and characterized by stair-stepping of a few degrees each step. This behavior is very difficult to explain in solar-radiative terms. However, the up-temperature transitions from glaciation to an interglacial are truly remarkable. These transitions are commonly known as de-glaciations (or glacial terminations) and they occur fantastically quickly in geologic terms. And as they occur, large solar-radiative forcing has to be overcome. To date, attempted explanations for these transitions have been almost entirely pursued in the solar- radiative domain only. This direction seems an impossible task. A new and very powerful climate driver is re-introduced herein called bulk-Earth-resonance. And this climate theory not only explains climate change on centennial and much longer time scales, but also on the most politically relevant decadal and annual time scales.
  2. 1989: Kvale, Erik P., Allen W. Archer, and Hollis R. Johnson. “Daily, monthly, and yearly tidal cycles within laminated siltstones of the Mansfield Formation (Pennsylvanian) of Indiana.” Geology17.4 (1989): 365-368. Whetstones (laminated siltstones) within the Mansfield Formation of Orange County, Indiana, are Lower Pennsylvanian (Morrowan) tidal deposits characterized by rhythmic laminations. Laminae thicknesses vary systematically in a vertical sequence and reflect tidal events of a mixed tidal regime. So complete is the record of tidal deposition that daily and monthly tidal cycles can be delineated. Neap-spring tides (related to the phases of the moon) and equatorial-tropical tides (related to the declination of the moon) are recognizable within the sequence.
  3. 1997: Keeling, Charles D., and Timothy P. Whorf. “Possible forcing of global temperature by the oceanic tides.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 94.16 (1997): 8321-8328. An approximately decadal periodicity in surface air temperature is discernable in global observations from A.D. 1855 to 1900 and since A.D. 1945, but with a periodicity of only about 6 years during the intervening period. Changes in solar irradiance related to the sunspot cycle have been proposed to account for the former, but cannot account for the latter. To explain both by a single mechanism, we propose that extreme oceanic tides may produce changes in sea surface temperature at repeat periods, which alternate between approximately one-third and one-half of the lunar nodal cycle of 18.6 years. These alternations, recurring at nearly 90-year intervals, reflect varying slight degrees of misalignment and departures from the closest approach of the Earth with the Moon and Sun at times of extreme tide raising forces. Strong forcing, consistent with observed temperature periodicities, occurred at 9-year intervals close to perihelion (solar perigee) for several decades centered on A.D. 1881 and 1974, but at 6-year intervals for several decades centered on A.D. 1923. As a physical explanation for tidal forcing of temperature we propose that the dissipation of extreme tides increases vertical mixing of sea water, thereby causing episodic cooling near the sea surface. If this mechanism correctly explains near-decadal temperature periodicities, it may also apply to variability in temperature and climate on other times-scales, even millennial and longer.
  4. 1999: Clark, Peter U., Robert S. Webb, and Lloyd D. Keigwin. Mechanisms of global climate change at millennial time scales. American geophysical union, 1999. Contributors describe the current understanding of abrupt climate variations that have occurred at millennial to submillennial time scales, events now recognized as characteristics of the global climate during the last glaciation. Subjects covered include analysis of modern climate and ocean dynamics, paleoclimate reconstructions derived from the marine, terrestrial and ice core records, and paleoclimate modeling studies. The breadth of global paleoclimate knowledge presented here provides information required to answer manypertinent questions related to climate change.
  5. 2000: Keeling, Charles D., and Timothy P. Whorf. “The 1,800-year oceanic tidal cycle: A possible cause of rapid climate change.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 97.8 (2000): 3814-3819. Variations in solar irradiance are widely believed to explain climatic change on 20,000- to 100,000-year time-scales in accordance with the Milankovitch theory of the ice ages, but there is no conclusive evidence that variable irradiance can be the cause of abrupt fluctuations in climate on time-scales as short as 1,000 years. We propose that such abrupt millennial changes, seen in ice and sedimentary core records, were produced in part by well characterized, almost periodic variations in the strength of the global oceanic tide-raising forces caused by resonances in the periodic motions of the earth and moon. A well defined 1,800-year tidal cycle is associated with gradually shifting lunar declination from one episode of maximum tidal forcing on the centennial time-scale to the next. An amplitude modulation of this cycle occurs with an average period of about 5,000 years, associated with gradually shifting separation-intervals between perihelion and syzygy at maxima of the 1,800-year cycle. We propose that strong tidal forcing causes cooling at the sea surface by increasing vertical mixing in the oceans. On the millennial time-scale, this tidal hypothesis is supported by findings, from sedimentary records of ice-rafting debris, that ocean waters cooled close to the times predicted for strong tidal forcing.
  6. 2001: Cerveny, Randall S., and John A. Shaffer. “The moon and El Nino.” Geophysical research letters 28.1 (2001): 25-28. Regional climates around the world display cycles corresponding to the 18.61‐year maximum lunar declination (MLD) periodicity. We suggest that these cycles are created by a relationship between MLD and El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Both equatorial Pacific sea‐surface temperature and South Pacific atmospheric pressure significantly correlate with maximum lunar declination. Low MLDs are associated with warmer equatorial Pacific sea‐surface temperatures and negative values of the Southern Oscillation Index. A lunar‐influenced change in the Pacific gyre circulation presents a viable physical mechanism for explaining these relationships. We suggest that the gyre is enhanced by tidal forces under high MLDs, inducing cold‐water advection into the equatorial region but is restricted by the weak tidal forcing of low MLDs thereby favoring El Niño episodes. An astronomical model utilizing this relationship produces a forecast of increased non‐El Niño (either La Niña or neutral) activity for the early part of this decade.
  7. 2002: Munk, Walter, Matthew Dzieciuch, and Steven Jayne. “Millennial climate variability: Is there a tidal connection?.” Journal of climate 15.4 (2002): 370-385.Orbital forcing has long been the subject of two quite separate communities: the tide community is concerned with the relatively rapid gravitational forces (periods up to 18.6 yr) and the climate community with the long-period Milankovitch insolation terms (exceeding 20 000 yr). The wide gap notwithstanding, the two subjects have much in common. Keeling and Whorf have proposed that the millennial climate variability is associated with high-frequency tidal forcing extending into the 10-octave gap by some nonlinear process. Here, the authors distinguish between two quite distinct processes for generating low frequencies: (i) the “traditional” analogy with eclipse cycles associated with near coincidence of the appropriate orbital alignment of the Sun, the Moon, and Earth, and (ii) sum and differences of tidal frequencies and their harmonics producing low beat frequencies. The first process is associated with long time intervals between extreme tides, but the events are of short duration and only marginally higher than conventional high tides. With proper nonlinearities, (ii) can lead to low-frequency tidal forcing. A few candidate frequencies in the centurial and millennial band are found, which prominently include the Keeling and Whorf forcing at 1795 yr. This is confirmed by a numerical experiment with a computer-generated tidal time series of 275 000 yr. Tidal forcing is very weak and an unlikely candidate for millennial variability; the Keeling and Whorf proposal is considered as the most likely among unlikely candidates. Corresponding author address: Prof. Walter Munk, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego
  8. 2002: Treloar, Norman C. “Luni‐solar tidal influences on climate variability.” International Journal of Climatology 22.12 (2002): 1527-1542. A possible exogenous cause of some terrestrial climate variability on time scales of 1 to 100 years is examined. Luni‐solar effects, and especially the coincidences of New Moon with small perigee distance, produce important tidal perturbations. These influences have been resolved in two orthogonal directions, and the variability in the southern oscillation and sea‐surface temperature anomalies may be at least partly understandable as a reflection of these tidal components. The correlation between tidal components and these climate factors is significant. The predictability of tidal effects may make a contribution to improving the accuracy and lead time of climate forecasting. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society.
  9. 2002: Helmuth, Brian, et al. “Climate change and latitudinal patterns of intertidal thermal stress.” Science 298.5595 (2002): 1015-1017. The interaction of climate and the timing of low tides along the West Coast of the United States creates a complex mosaic of thermal environments, in which northern sites can be more thermally stressful than southern sites. Thus, climate change may not lead to a poleward shift in the distribution of intertidal organisms, as has been proposed, but instead will likely cause localized extinctions at a series of “hot spots.” Patterns of exposure to extreme climatic conditions are temporally variable, and tidal predictions suggest that in the next 3 to 5 years “hot spots” are likely to appear at several northern sites.
  10. 2003: Yndestad, Harald. “A lunar-nodal spectrum in Arctic time series.” ICES CM (2003). Spectral analysis shows that long time series of Arctic sea ice extent, te Kola temperature, and the NAO winter index show the signature of the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle.
  11. 2004: Yndestad, Harald. “The lunar nodal cycle influence on the Barents Sea.” (2004). The Barents Sea contains one of the most productive marine areas in the world. For centuries, Northeast Arctic cod and Norwegian spring spawning herring have been of vital importance for the Norwegian fish export industry and hence economic growth in Norway. It has been common knowledge that the biomass of different Barents Sea species experiences both shortand long-term fluctuations. These fluctuations have been explained by changes in herring cycles and cod cycles, or by the introduction of new fishing equipment, and more. Norwegian marine research began in earnest at the beginning of the 19th century. The main task for researchers was to discover how nature influenced cod stocks and the effects these fluctuations had on the lives of people who depended on fishing for a living. Nearly 100 years later, scientists still disagree over the causes for the biomass fluctuations in the Barents Sea. At the same time, marine research has produced long time series, which can now be analyzed using new methods. This thesis represents an investigation of a number of long time series of Arctic climate indicators and biomasses in the Barents Sea. The purpose of this analysis has been to identify a potential stationary cycle in the biomasses. A stationary cycle in the biomass allows for expanded possibilities for better long-term biomass forecasting. The methods are based on general systems theory, analysis of systems dynamics and a wavelet analysis of time series. The wavelet analysis has identified the cycle time and the cycle phase of the dominant cycles in the time series. The phase-relation between the identified cycles contains information abort the dynamic chain of events between climate indicators and the biomasses in the Barents Sea. The investigation has identified harmonic and sub-harmonic cycles of the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle in all analyzed time series. The identified lunar nodal spectrum is explained by a gravity force from the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle as the First Cause. The energy from the 18.6-year gravity force from the moon introduces a chain of oscillating events. The oscillating gravity introduces a lunar nodal spectrum in the lunar nodal tide and the polar position. A wavelet analysis of time series indicates that movement of the polar position introduces a new lunar nodal spectrum of circulating water in the Arctic Ocean. This circulation water interacts with the 18.6-year lunar nodal tide in the Atlantic Ocean and introduces an oscillation in the extent of Arctic ice, and an oscillation in the inflow of the Atlantic Ocean to the Barents Sea. The lunar nodal spectrum of Atlantic inflow introduces a lunar nodal spectrum in the Barents Sea ecology system. Analysis of the biomass in the Barents Sea shows that long-term growth, reduction and collapse are associated with the phase-relation between the biomass eigen dynamics and the lunar nodal spectrum of Atlantic inflow.
  12. 2006: Yasuda, Ichiro, Satoshi Osafune, and Hiroaki Tatebe. “Possible explanation linking 18.6‐year period nodal tidal cycle with bi‐decadal variations of ocean and climate in the North Pacific.” Geophysical Research Letters 33.8 (2006). Bi‐decadal climate variation is dominant over the North Pacific on inter‐decadal timescale; however the mechanism has not been fully understood. We here find that the bi‐decadal variations in the North Pacific climate and intermediate waters possibly relate to the 18.6‐year period modulation of diurnal tide. In the period of strong diurnal tide, tide‐induced diapycnal mixing makes surface salinity and density higher and the upper‐layer shallower along the Kuril Islands and the east coast of Japan. Simple model results suggest that the coastal depth adjustment by baroclinic Kelvin waves enhances the thermohaline circulation, the upper‐layer poleward western boundary current and associated heat transport by about 0.05PW. This could also explain the warmer SST in the Kuroshio‐Oyashio Extension regions, where positive feedback with Aleutian Low might amplify the bidecadal variations. The 18.6‐year tidal cycle hence could play a role as a basic forcing for the bi‐decadal ocean and climate variations.
  13. 2006: Yndestad, Harald. “The influence of the lunar nodal cycle on Arctic climate.” ICES Journal of Marine Science 63.3 (2006): 401-420. The Arctic Ocean is a substantial energy sink for the northern hemisphere. Fluctuations in its energy budget will have a major influence on the Arctic climate. The paper presents an analysis of the time-series for the polar position, the extent of Arctic ice, sea level at Hammerfest, Kola section sea temperature, Røst winter air temperature, and the NAO winter index as a way to identify a source of dominant cycles. The investigation uses wavelet transformation to identify the period and the phase in these Arctic time-series. System dynamics are identified by studying the phase relationship between the dominant cycles in all time-series. A harmonic spectrum from the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle in the Arctic time-series has been identified. The cycles in this harmonic spectrum have a stationary period, but not stationary amplitude and phase. A sub-harmonic cycle of about 74 years may introduce a phase reversal of the 18.6-year cycle. The signal-to-noise ratio between the lunar nodal spectrum and other sources changes from 1.6 to 3.2. A lunar nodal cycle in all time-series indicates that there is a forced Arctic oscillating system controlled by the pull of gravity from the moon, a system that influences long-term fluctuations in the extent of Arctic ice. The phase relation between the identified cycles indicates a possible chain of events from lunar nodal gravity cycles, to long-term tides, polar motions, Arctic ice extent, the NAO winter index, weather, and climate.
  14. 2006: Osafune, S., and I. Yasuda. “Bidecadal variability in the intermediate waters of the northwestern subarctic Pacific and the Okhotsk Sea in relation to 18.6‐year period nodal tidal cycle.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 111.C5 (2006). On the basis of historical oceanographic data, we investigated the long‐term variations of the intermediate waters in the four regions in the northwestern subarctic Pacific: Oyashio, Okhotsk Sea Mode Water, Upstream Oyashio and East Kamchatka Current. We found bidecadal oscillations in these water properties that are synchronized with the 18.6‐year period nodal cycle. In periods when the diurnal tide is strong, the following characteristics are found: Apparent oxygen utilization and phosphate are low in Oyashio and Okhotsk Sea Mode Water. The thickness of the intermediate layers is large, and thus potential vorticity is correspondingly low, in Oyashio, Okhotsk Sea Mode Water, and Upstream Oyashio. Around the mesothermal (temperature maximum) water, isopycnal potential temperature are low in the areas on the Pacific side, and high in the intermediate layer of Okhotsk Sea Mode Water. The mixing ratio of Okhotsk Sea Mode Water in the Upstream Oyashio water is high. These bidecadal oscillations can be explained by changes in the vertical mixing around the Kuril Straits induced by the diurnal tide whose amplitude is modulated with the 18.6‐year nodal cycle. Higher sea surface salinity water around the Kuril Straits caused by stronger tidal mixing is possibly transported northward along the cyclonic Okhotsk Sea Gyre, and possibly enhances the formation of the dense shelf water. This makes apparent oxygen utilization, phosphate, and potential vorticity lower in Okhotsk Sea Mode Water and Oyashio.
  15. 2007: Yndestad, Harald. “The Arctic Ocean as a coupled oscillating system to the forced 18.6 year lunar gravity cycle.” Nonlinear Dynamics in Geosciences. Springer, New York, NY, 2007. 281-290. The Arctic Ocean is a substantial energy sink for the Earth’s Northern Hemisphere. Future fluctuations in its energy budget will have a major influence on the Arctic climate. A wavelet spectrum analysis of an extensive historical Arctic data series concludes that we may be able to understand Arctic climate dynamics as an oscillation system coupled to the forced 18.6 yr lunar nodal gravity cycle. This paper presents the results from a wavelet spectrum analysis of the data series which included polar movement, Arctic ice extent and the inflow of North Atlantic Water to the Norwegian Sea. The investigation shows a correlation better than R = 0.6 between the astronomic 18.6 yr lunar nodal gravity cycle and identified 18 yr dominant cycles in the data series. The identified 18 yr cycles have phase – reversals synchronized to a 74 yr sub – harmonic lunar nodal cycle.
  16. 2007: McKinnell, Stewart M., and William R. Crawford. “The 18.6‐year lunar nodal cycle and surface temperature variability in the northeast Pacific.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 112.C2 (2007). The 18.6‐year lunar nodal cycle (LNC) is a significant feature of winter (January) air and sea temperatures along the North American west coast over a 400‐year period. Yet much of the recent temperature variation can also be explained by wind patterns associated with the PNA teleconnection. At Sitka, Alaska, (57°N) and nearby stations in northern British Columbia, the January PNA index accounts for over 70% of average January air temperatures in lengthy meteorological records. It appears that the LNC signal in January air temperatures in this region is not independent of the PNA, but is a component of it. The Sitka air temperature record, along with SSTs along the British Columbia coast and the PNA index have significant cross‐correlations with the LNC that appear at a 2‐year lag, LNC leading. The influence of the PNA pattern declines in winter with decreasing latitude but the LNC component does not. It appears as a significant feature of long‐term SST variation at Scripps Pier and the California Current System. The LNC also appears over centennial‐scales in proxy temperatures along western North America. The linkage of LNC‐moderated surface temperatures to processes involving basin‐scale teleconnections expands the possibility that the proximate mechanism may be located remotely from its expression in the northeast Pacific. Some of the largest potential sources of a diurnal tidal signal in the atmosphere are located in the western Pacific; the Sea of Okhotsk and the Indonesian archipelago.
  17. 2008: Yndestad, Harald, William R. Turrell, and Vladimir Ozhigin. “Lunar nodal tide effects on variability of sea level, temperature, and salinity in the Faroe-Shetland Channel and the Barents Sea.” Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers 55.10 (2008): 1201-1217. The Faroe-Shetland Channel and the Kola Section hydrographic time-series cover a time period of more than 100 years and represent two of the longest oceanographic time-series in the world. Relationships between the temperature and salinity of Atlantic water from these two areas are examined in this paper, which also presents for the first time comparisons between them and annual mean sea levels in the region. The investigation was based on a wavelet spectrum analysis used to identify the dominant cycle periods and cycle phases in all time-series. The water-property time-series show mean variability correlated to a sub-harmonic cycle of the nodal tide of about 74 years, with an advective delay between the Faroe-Shetland Channel and the Barents Sea of about 2 years. In addition, correlations better than R=0.7 were found between dominant Atlantic water temperature cycles and the 18.6-year lunar nodal tide, and better than R=0.4 for the 18.6/2=9.3-year lunar nodal phase tide. The correlation between the lunar nodal tides and the ocean temperature variability suggests that deterministic lunar nodal tides are important regional climate indicators that should be included when future regional climate variability is considered. The present analysis suggests that Atlantic water temperature and salinity fluctuations in the Nordic Seas are influenced by forced tidal mixing modulated by harmonics of the nodal tide and influencing the water mass characteristics at some point “down stream” from the Faroe-Shetland Channel. The effects of the modulated oceanic mixing are subsequently distributed as complex coupled lunar nodal sub-harmonic spectra in the thermohaline circulation.
  18. 2008: Hasumi, Hiroyasu, et al. “Pacific bidecadal climate variability regulated by tidal mixing around the Kuril Islands.” Geophysical Research Letters 35.14 (2008). 18.6‐year period variability has been detected in various aspects of the climate, especially in and around the Pacific Ocean. Although it is believed to be caused by 18.6‐year period tidal cycle, no study has directly shown how the tidal cycle regulates such variability. Using a state‐of‐the‐art climate model, we show that the 18.6‐year cycle in strong tidal mixing localized around the Kuril Islands induces 18.6‐year periodicity in El Nino‐Southern Oscillation‐like Pacific climate variability. Influence of the tidal mixing propagates along the Pacific western rim as coastally trapped waves. Temperature anomaly is generated in the subsurface western equatorial Pacific, which propagates along the equatorial thermocline and eventually excites 18.6‐year periodicity in the equatorial sea surface temperature.
  19. 2009: Yndestad, Harald. “The influence of long tides on ecosystem dynamics in the Barents Sea.” Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography 56.21-22 (2009): 2108-2116. The Barents Sea ecosystem has been associated with large biomass fluctuations. If there is a hidden deterministic process behind the Barents Sea ecosystem, we may forecast the biomass in order to control it. This presentation concludes, for the first time, investigations of a long data series from North Atlantic water and the Barents Sea ecosystem. The analysis is based on a wavelet spectrum analysis from the data series of annual mean Atlantic sea level, North Atlantic water temperature, the Kola section water temperature, and species from the Barents Sea ecosystem. The investigation has identified dominant fluctuations correlated with the 9.3-yr phase tide, the 18.6-yr amplitude tide, and a 74-yr superharmonic cycle in the North Atlantic water, Barents Sea water, and Arctic data series. The correlation between the tidal cycles and dominant Barents Sea ecosystem cycles is estimated to be R=0.6 or better. The long-term mean fluctuations correlate with the 74-yr superharmonic cycle. The wavelets analysis shows that the long-term 74-yr cycle may introduce a phase reversal in the identified 18-yr periods of temperature and salinity. The present analysis suggests that forced vertical and horizontal nodal tides influence the ocean’s thermohaline circulation, and that they behave as a coupled non-linear oscillation system. The Barents Sea ecosystem analysis shows that the biomass life cycle and the long-term fluctuations correlate better than R=0.5 to the lunar nodal tide spectrum. Barents Sea capelin has a life cycle related to a third harmonic of the 9.3-yr tide. The life cycles of shrimp, cod, herring, and haddock are related to a third harmonic of the 18.6-yr tide. Biomass growth was synchronized to the lunar nodal tide. The biomass growth of zooplankton and shrimp correlates with the current aspect of lunar nodal tidal inflow to the Barents Sea. The long-term biomass fluctuation of cod and herring is correlated with a cycle period of about 3×18.6=55.8 yr. This analysis suggests that we may understand the Barents Sea ecosystem dynamic as a free-coupled oscillating system to the forced lunar nodal tides. This free-coupled oscillating system has a resonance related to the oscillating long tides and the third harmonic and superharmonic cycles.
  20. 2009: Yasuda, Ichiro. “The 18.6‐year period moon‐tidal cycle in Pacific Decadal Oscillation reconstructed from tree‐rings in western North America.” Geophysical Research Letters 36.5 (2009). Time‐series of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) reconstructed from tree‐rings in Western North America is found to have a statistically significant periodicity of 18.6‐year period lunar nodal tidal cycle; negative (positive) PDO tends to occur in the period of strong (weak) diurnal tide. In the 3rd and 5th (10th, 11th and 13rd) year after the maximum diurnal tide, mean‐PDO takes significant negative (positive) value, suggesting that the Aleutian Low is weak (strong), western‐central North Pacific in 30–50°N is warm (cool) and equator‐eastern rim of the Pacific is cool (warm). This contributes to climate predictability with a time‐table from the astronomical tidal cycle.
  21. 2010: Osafune, S., and I. Yasuda. “Bidecadal variability in the Bering Sea and the relation with 18.6 year period nodal tidal cycle.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 115.C2 (2010). Bidecadal variations are investigated in the Bering Sea, especially in the southeastern basin adjacent to the Aleutian passes, where vertical mixing may be strong because of the diurnal tide. Those variations found in this region are synchronized with the 18.6 year period nodal tidal cycle, and the temporal patterns are similar to ones around the northwestern subarctic Pacific near the Kuril Straits reported by a previous study. Salinity and density in the upper layer are high in the periods when the diurnal tide is strong. In the intermediate layer, layer thickness is large, and isopycnal potential temperature and apparent oxygen utilization are low in the same periods. It is shown that these variations are consistent with the patterns expected from the nodal modulation of vertical mixing, and a simple two‐dimensional model, assuming a balance between anomalous vertical mixing and advection of anomaly by the mean current, succeeds to some extent in explaining the variations of the upper layer salinity and isopycnal temperature and apparent oxygen utilization in the intermediate layer.
  22. 2012: Tanaka, Yuki, et al. “Effects of the 18.6-yr modulation of tidal mixing on the North Pacific bidecadal climate variability in a coupled climate model.” Journal of Climate 25.21 (2012): 7625-7642. Diapycnal mixing induced by tide–topography interaction, one of the essential factors maintaining the global ocean circulation and hence the global climate, is modulated by the 18.6-yr period oscillation of the lunar orbital inclination, and has therefore been hypothesized to influence bidecadal climate variability. In this study, the spatial distribution of diapycnal diffusivity together with its 18.6-yr oscillation estimated from a global tide model is incorporated into a state-of-the-art numerical coupled climate model to investigate its effects on climate variability over the North Pacific and to understand the underlying physical mechanism. It is shown that a significant sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly with a period of 18.6 years appears in the Kuroshio–Oyashio Extension region; a positive (negative) SST anomaly tends to occur during strong (weak) tidal mixing. This is first induced by anomalous horizontal circulation localized around the Kuril Straits, where enhanced modulation of tidal mixing exists, and then amplified through a positive feedback due to midlatitude air–sea interactions. The resulting SST and sea level pressure variability patterns are reminiscent of those associated with one of the most prominent modes of climate variability in the North Pacific known as the Pacific decadal oscillation, suggesting the potential for improving climate predictability by taking into account the 18.6-yr modulation of tidal mixing.

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF AN ATTENBOROUGH LECTURE ON “THE SCIENCE OF OUR PLANET”

LINK TO THE YOUTUBE VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Jq23mSDh9U

PART-1: A TRANSCRIPT OF WHAT THE DAVID SAYS

VOICE-OVER: ARE WE AT RISK OF DESTABILIZING THE WHOLE PLANET?

THE DAVID: RECENT DISCOVERIES MADE BY SCIENTISTS STUDYING THE WAYS IN WHICH OUR PLANET WORKS ARE SURELY OF THE GREATEST IMPORTANCE FOR ALL OF US. THEIR INSIGHTS ARE DEEPLY TROUBLING BUT THEY ALSO GIVE US HOPE BECAUSE THEY SHOW US HOW WE CAN FIX THINGS. JOHAN ROCKSTROM {Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University} HAS FOCUSED ON WHAT KEEPS OUR PLANET STABLE. HE AND HIS COLLEAGUES AROUND THE WORLD DISCOVERED THE MOST IMPORTANT SCIENTIFIC INSIGHT OF OUR TIME.

HIS CHART IS A REVELATION. IT SHOWS GLOBAL TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY OVER THE PAST 100,000 YEARS SINCE THE FIRST APPEARANCE OF MODERN HUMANS. THE OLDER TEMPERATURES WERE EXTREMELY VOLATILE WITH 10C VARIABILITY PER DECADE. THIS VOLATILITY STABILIZED JUST 10,000 YEARS AGO. GEOLOGISTS HAVE GIVEN THIS PERIOD OF STABILITY ITS OWN SPECIAL NAME. IT IS CALLED THE HOLOCENE.

{JOHAN}: The Holocene is remarkable. It is a warm period where the planet global mean temperarure varies between just plus or minus 1C over the whole of the Holocene}.

{THE DAVID} THE HOLOCENE’S STABLE TEMPERATURES GAVE US A STABLE PLANET. SEA LEVELS STABILIZED. FOR THE FIRST TIME WE HAD PREDICTABLE SEASONS AND RELIABLE WEATHER. THIS STABILITY WAS FUNDAMENTAL. FOR THE FIRST TIME CIVILIZATION WAS POSSIBLE AND HUMANITY WASTED NO TIME IN TAKING ADVANTAGE. {JOHAN}: THE HOLOCENE IS THE ONLY STATE OF THE PLANET WE KNOW FOR CERTAIN THAT CAN SUPPORT THE MODERN WORLD AS WE KNOW IT. {IMAGE OF CIVILIZATION PROVIDED BY THE DAVID IS SHOWN BELOW}

{BLOGGER’S COMMENT: HERE WE FIND THAT THE GREAT NATURE MAN AND HIS TEAM OF SUPER SCIENTISTS HAVE MADE THE AMAZING DISCOVERY THAT INTERGLACIAL CLIMATE IS MORE STABLE THAN GLACIATION CYCLES}.

{THE DAVID} “BUT WE HAVE JUST LEFT THE HOLOCENE BEHIND”. {BLOGGER’S COMMENT: NO SIR WE HAVE NOT LEFT THE HOLOCENE BEHIND, WE ARE STILL IN THE HOLOCENE INTERGLACIAL. WE WILL HAVE LEFT IT BEHIND WHEN THEN NEXT GLACIATION BEGINS}

{JOHAN} THE EXPONENTIAL RISE OF HUMAN PRESSURES ON PLANET EARTH HAS REACHED A STAGE WHERE WE HAVE NOW CREATED OUR OWN GEOLOGICAL EPOCH. {THE DAVID} WE ARE NOW IN THE ANTHROPOCENE, THE AGE OF HUMANS, BECAUSE WE ARE NOW THE PRIMARY DRIVERS OF CHANGE ON PLANET EARTH. {JOHAN} IT’S A MIND BOGGLING SITUATION TO BE IN. FOR THE FIRST TIME WE HUMANS HAVE TO SERIOUSLY CONSIDER THE RISK THAT WE CAN DESTABILIZE THE ENTIRE PLANET. {BLOGGER’S COMMENT: THESE HUMANS HAVE GROSSLY OVER ESTIMATED THEMSELVES: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/07/31/planetary-environmentalism-in-the-anthropocene/ }

{THE DAVID} THERE IS A DANGER THAT WE HAVE ALREADY CROSSED THE BOUNDARY OF EARTH’S CLIMATE {BLOGGER’S COMMENT: HOW COULD WE HAVE CROSSED THE BOUNDARY OF EARTH’S CLIMATE WITHIN AN INTERGLACIAL WHEN THE EARTH HAS GONE THROUGH MILLIONS OF YEARS OF GLACIATION CYCLES?}. THE MOST ALARMING EVIDENCE OF THIS IS IN THE CHANGE OF OUR PLANET’S ICE. {JOHAN} HAVING TWO ICE CAPS OF PERMANENT ICE IN THE ARCTIC AND IN ANTARCTICA IS THE VERY PRE-CONDITION FOR THE PLANET TO STAY IN THE STATE THAT HAS ALLOWED US TO DEVELOP HUMAN CIVILIZATION AS WE KNOW IT. A PERMANENT WHITE SURFACE LIKE WHAT WE CAN SEE AT THE TWO POLAR REGIONS IS REFLECTING BACK 90% TO 95% OF THE INCOMING HEAT FROM THE SUN. WHEN THESE ICE SHEETS START MELTING YOU CAN COME TO A POINT WHERE THE ICE SHEETS TIP OVER FROM BEING SELF COOLING TO BECOMING SELF WARMING, AND THAT IS THE MOST DRAMATIC TIPPING POINT IN THE EARTH SYSTEM. {BLOGGER’S COMMENT: AT THE MAXIMUM RATE OF ICE LOSS RECORDED IN THIS INTERGLACIAL THE GREENLAND ICE SHEET WILL BE GONE IN 7,100 YEARS UNLESS THE NEXT GLACIATION INTERVENES}.

{THE DAVID} A TIPPING POINT IS A POINT BEYOND WHICH THE CHANGE BECOMES IRREVERSIBLE. {PROFESSOR JASON BOX} DURING THE CURRENT CLIMATE GREENLAND IS ALREADY BEYOND ITS THRESHOLD WHERE IT IS NOW LOSING 10,000 CUBIC METERS OF ICE PER SECOND {EQUIVALENT TO 290 GIGATONNES PER YEAR (GTY) IF THE PER SECOND RATE PERSISTS ALL YEAR}. THAT’S THE AVERAGE LOSS RATE. THIS RATE OF ICE LOSS IS LESS THAN THE AVERAGE ANNUAL LOSS RECORDED BY THE IMBIE TEAM OF 370 GTY. At 370 gigatons per year, the Greenland ice sheet will be gone in 7,100 years while raising sea level at a rate of  about 1 mm/year  until the sea level rises 7.36 meters 7,100 years from now.

{JASON} THE DRAMA HERE IS THAT ONE CHARACTERISTIC OF TIPPING POINTS IS THAT THERE IS NO OFF BUTTON. ONCE YOU PRESS THE ON-BUTTON, YOU CANNOT STOP IT. IT TAKES OVER. IT’S TOO LATE. IT’S NOT POSSIBLE TO CHANGE YOUR MIND AND BACK OFF. ONCE A TIPPING POINT SYSTEM IS ACTIVATED IT IS TOO LATE TO DO ANYTHING ABOUT IT.

{PROF RICARDA WINKELMANN} THE IMPORTANT POINT TO MAKE HERE IS THAT EVERYTHING IN THE EARTH SYSTEM IS CONNECTED SO THAT IF ONE PART OF THE CLIMATE SYSTEM CROSSES A TIPPING POINT THEN THAT MIGHT MAKE IT MORE LIKELY FOR OTHER PARTS OF THE SYSTEM TO ALSO CROSS THEIR CRITICAL THRESHOLD. YOU CAN THINK OF IT IN TERMS OF DOMINOES. IF YOU TIP ONE OF THEM OVER YOU INITIATE A CASCADING EFFECT.

Dominoes GIFs - Get the best GIF on GIPHY

{JASON} WHEN WE CROSS A TIPPING POINT WHAT WE GET IS IRREVERSIBLE CHANGES AND THAT WOULD MEAN THAT THE PLANET WILL GO FROM OUR BEST FRIEND WHERE OFFSETTING CHANGES MAINTAIN STABILITY TO A CONDITION WHERE CHANGES ONCE STARTED ARE NOTBALANCED OUT BUT RE-ENFORCED SUCH THAT THIS OFF-BALANCE SYSTEM IS NOW A FOE. {BLOGGER’S COMMENT: THE PHRASE TIPPING POINT IS AN OVERUSED HYPOTHETICAL WITH NO TIME SCALE BEING APPLIED TO RELATIVELY BRIEF INTERGLACIALS IN BETWEEN THE NORMAL GLACIATION STATE “OF THE PLANET”}.

{THE DAVID} IN 1988 WE PASSED 350 PARTS PER MILLION OF CARBON DIOXIDE IN EARTH’S ATMOSPHERE. THIS WAS THE MOMENT WE CROSSED THE BOUNDARY. EVER SINCE THEM WE’VE BEEN AT RISK OF TRIGGERING CHANGES THAT LEAD TO RUNAWAY WARMING. {BLOGGER’S COMMENT: IF 350PPM WAS THE BOUNDARY TO HELL HOW IS IT POSSIBLE FOR THE DAVID TO BE ON YOUTUBE AT 415 PPM? OR IS THE REAL BOUNDARY 450PPM LIKE JASON SAYS?}

{JASON} RIGHT NOW WE’VE REACHED A POINT OF CO2 CONCENTRATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE OF ROUGHLY 415 PARTS PER MILLION, BEING THE IMPACT OF THE HEAT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DANGER ZONE IN THE CLIMATE BOUNDARY IN TERMS OF RISING FREQUENCY OF DROUGHTS AND HEAT WAVES AND FLOODS AND ACCELERATED MELTING OF ICE AND ACCELERATED THAWING OF PERMAFROST AND HIGHER FREQUENCY OF FOREST FIRES. TODAY OUR ASSESSMENT IS THAT THE CERTAINTY RANGE OF SCIENCE LIES BETWEEN 350PPM, THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE SAFE ZONE AND THE BEGINNING OF THE DANGER ZONE, UP TO 450 PPM WHERE YOU EXIT THE DANGER ZONE AND ENTER THE HIGH RISK ZONE.

{THE DAVID} IF WE ENTER THE HIGH RISK ZONE IRREVERSIBLE TIPPING POINTS BECOME HIGHLY LIKELY IF NOT INEVITABLE AND THIS IS A CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATE GIVEN THAT THE SIGNS OF TIPPING POINTS ARE ALL AROUND US NOW. WE ARE FAST APPROACHING A MAJOR TIPPING POINT IN ONE OF THE PLANET’S LARGEST REMAINING WILDERNESSES – THE AMAZON. LARGE PARTS OF THE RAIN FOREST ARE DRYING OUT. AS THE FOREST IS REDUCED AND FRAGMENTED, ITS ABILITY TO RECYCLE WATER AND GENERATE RAIN INTO THE DRY SEASON IS DIMINISHED. IF THE DRY SEASON BECOMES LONGER THAN 4 MONTHS, THE JUNGLE TREES DIE AND THEY ARE REPLACED BY SAVANNA AND CARBON IS RELEASED INTO THE ATMOSPHERE. CHARLES NOBRE HAS CALCULATED THAT THE AMAZON COULD RELEASE 200 BILLION TONNES OVER THE NEXT THIRTY YEARS, EQUIVALENT TO ALL THE CARBON EMITTED WORLDWIDE FOR THE PAST FIVE YEARS. {BLOGGER’S COMMENT: REPEATED USE OF WORDS LIKE “COULD” AND “TIPPING POINT” WITHOUT DETAILS AND DATA DOES NOT HAVE A RATIONAL INFORMATION CONTENT}

{CARLOS NOBRE} WE ARE VERY VERY CLOZZ TO THE TEEPING POINT. ARE WE CONCERNED ABOUT FIGHTING THE CLIMATE CRISIS? ARE WE CONCERNED ABOUT KEEPING THE CARBON IN THE FOREST? OR DO WE NOT CARE?

{THEDAVID} NOW THAT JOHAN AND HIS COLEAGUES HAVE TURNED ON THE HEADLIGHTS WE CAN CLEARLY SEE THE BOUNDARIES. WE CAN SEE THE PATH BACK TO A SAFE SPACE. TO A MORE RESILIENT FUTURE. IT IS ACHIEVABLE. OUR IMMEDIATE PRIORITY IS TO REDUCE CARBON EMISSIONS TO ZERO AND STABILIZE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE AS LOW AS WE POSSIBLY CAN. SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION WE HAVE EMITTED 2,400 BILLION TONS OF CARBON DIOXIDE (14 GIGATONNES/YEAR ON AVERAGE). TO STAY BELOW 1.5C WE MUST EMIT LESS THAN 300 BILLION TONNES OF ADDITONAL CO2. IF WE CONTINUE TO EMIT 40 BILLION TONNES EACH YEAR OUR BUDGET WILL RUN OUT WITHIN 7 YEARS. {BLOGGER’S COMMENT: AT FAULT IS THE CLIMATE CHANGE MOVEMENT’S ILLOGICAL ASSUMPTION THAT THE UN COULD REPEAT THEIR MONTREAL PROTOCOL SUCCESS IN THE CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUE GIVEN THE IMMENSE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN CHANGING REFRIGERANTS AND OVERHAULING THE WORLD’S ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE}

{JASON} OF COURSE WE CANNOT SHUT DOWN ALL ENERGY UTILITIES IN THE WORLD OVERNIGHT. SO THE ONLY ORDERLY WAY TO DO THIS IS TO BEND THE CURVE OF GLOBAL EMISSIONS NOW. THAT’S WHAT ALL THE SCIENCE SHOWS. NOW IS THE LAST CHANCE WE HAVE TO BEND TO GLOBAL CURVE.

{THE DAVID} CUTTING OUR EMISSIONS IN HALF EVERY DECADE IS AN EXPONENTIAL RATE OF CHANGE.

{JASON} ANYONE CAN ADOPT THIS PACE. A COMPANY CAN DO IT OR A COUNTRY CAN DO IT OR THE WORLD CAN/MUST DO IT. THE FUTURE. THE FUTURE IS NOT DETERMINED. THE FUTURE IS IN OUR HANDS. WHAT HAPPENS OVER THE NEXT CENTURY WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW WE PLAY OUR CARDS THIS DECADE. I WOULD SAY THAT WE DO NOT HAVE ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS IN THE WORLD ANY MORE. DESTABILIZING THE PLANET . . . THE RISK OF DESTABILIZING THE PLANET IS A QUESTION OF SECURITY AND STABILITY FOR ALL SOCIETIES OF THE WORLD. THEREFORE IT IS A QUESTION FOR THE SECURITY COUNCIL. {BLOGGER’S COMMENT: THESE PEOPLE ARE APPARENTLY UNAWARE THAT THE UN HAS FAILED TO DELIVER THE EXPECTED MONTREAL PROTOCOL FOR THE CLIMATE AND HAVE ACCEPTED ITS IMPOSSIBILITY AS DESCRIBED IN A RELATED POST: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/06/05/the-paris-agreement/ }

{THE DAVID} IT’S A REMARKABLE TIME TO BE ALIVE BUT IT ALSO CARRIES GREAT RESPONSIBILITY TO ACT DECISIVELY. WE HAVE NO TIME TO LOSE. {JASON} WE STILL HAVE A CHANCE. THE WINDOW IS STILL OPEN FOR US TO HAVE A FUTURE FOR HUMANITY. THAT I THINK IS THE BEAUTY OF WHAT WE ARE TODAY. {BLOGGER’S COMMENT: THE “WE STILL HAVE A CHANCE” PHRASE HAS BEEN A STANDING FEATURE OF CLIMATE FEAROLOGY AND IT IS INCONSISTENT WITH THE FEAR OF PLANETARY DESTRUCTION THAT IS BEING SOLD BY THE SAME SPEAKER.}

PART-2: CRITICAL COMMENTARY ON THE SCIENCE OF OUR PLANET

(1): HISTORICAL CONTEXT

IN A RELATED POST ON THIS SITE: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/03/23/anti-fossil-fuel-activism-disguised-as-climate-science/ WE DEVELOP THE HYPOTHESIS THAT THE CLIMATE MOVEMENT OF OUR TIME CAN BE UNDERSTOOD AS A RESURGENCE OF THE HIPPIE ANTI POLLUTION MOVEMENT AGAINST FOSSIL FUELS IN THE 1960S AND 1970S WHEN SIGNIFICANT ADVANCES WERE MADE IN THE IMPLEMENTATION OF RENEWABLE ENERGY NOT ONLY OF WIND AND SOLAR BUT ALSO GEOTHERMAL AND TIDAL AS SHOWN IN THE IMAGE ABOVE. THE MOVEMENT FAILED TO REPLACE FOSSIL FUELS WITH RENEWABLES BUT THE SPIRIT DID NOT DIE AND AFTER THE 1988 SENATE TESTIMONY OF JAMES HANSEN IT WAS BROUGHT BACK TO LIFE WITH A NEW RATIONALE AND A NEW CHARGE AGAINST FOSSIL FUELS. THE CHARGE WAS CHANGED FROM POLLUTION TO GLOBAL WARMING WITH CLAIMS THAT FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS OF THE INDUSTRIAL ECONOMY CAUSE ATMOSPHERIC CO2 TO RISE AND THAT SINCE GLOBAL MEAN SURFACE TEMPERARURE (GMST) IS DETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF CO2 IN THE ATMOSPHERE, AS ATMOSPHERIC CO2 RISES SO WILL GMST AND THAT THE SEQUENCE OF HIGHER AND HIGHER GMST CAUSED BY THE INDUSTRIAL ECONOMY IS UNDERSTOOD ASANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING (AGW) THAT COULD HAVE DANGEROUS CONSEQUENCES FOR HUMANITY AND NATURE ALIKE AS DESCRIBED IN THE HANSEN 1988 TESTIMONY TO CONGRESS WITH DETAILS IN A RELATED POST: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/05/09/hansen88/ .

(2): THE NEW CASE AGAINST FOSSIL FUELS

WITH THE THEORY OF GLOBAL WARMING BY FOSSIL FUELS AND THE PRESENTATION OF WARMING AS HARMFUL AND DANGEROUS IN TERMS OF CHANGES TO THE WORLD’S CLIMATE AND THINGS LIKE SEA LEVEL RISE FROM MELTING ICE, IT WAS DEMANDED THAT THE WORLD MUST STOP BURNING FOSSIL FUELS TO AVOID THE PROJECTED HARM FROM AGW. THE SOLUTION DEMANDED BY CLIMATE SCIENTISTS LIKE HANSEN WAS THAT THE WORLD MUST STOP BURNING FOSSIL FUELS TO STOP THE RISING TEMPERATURES OF AGW BECAUSE THIS WARMING IS MAN MADE AND NOT NATURAL SUCH THAT ITS IMPACTS ARE UNKNOWN AND MUST BE ASSUMED TO BE A DEVASTATION THAT MUST BE AVOIDED. WITHOUT DIRECT EVIDENCE OF THE HARM OF AGW FORECAST BY CLIMATE SCIENCE, THE LOGIC USED IN THIS ARGUMENT IS THE PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE DESCRIBED IN A RELATED POST: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/04/05/the-null-hypothesis-issue/ WHERE, AS DESCRIBED IN THE LINKED DOCUMENT, HYPOTHESIS TESTS OF STATISTICS ARE MADE IN A BACKWARDS FASHION WITH THE TRUTH OF THE HYPOTHESIS TO BE TESTED AS THE NULL HYPOTHESIS AND TAKEN FOR GRANTED UNLESS SUFFICIENT EVIDENCE CAN BE PRESENTED TO REJECT THE NULL HYPOTHESIS WHICH WAS AND IS THAT THE WORLD IS WARMING, THE WARMING IS CAUSED BY RISING ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION, AND THE RISING ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION IS CAUSED BY THE INDUSTRIAL ECONOMY OF THE HUMANS BURNING FOSSIL FUELS.

(3) THE NEW ANTI FOSSIL FUEL MOVEMENT

ON THE BASIS OF THE ISSUES RAISED IN ITEM (2), THE ANTI FOSSIL FUEL AND PRO RENEWABLE ENERGY MOVEMENT OF THE 1960S/1970S WAS RESURECTED WITH THE PROPOSAL THAT FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS CAUSE WARMING AND THE WARMING COULD HAVE DANGEROUS CONSEQUENCES FOR HUMANS AND FOR THE PLANET ITSELF. RESOLUTION OF THIS ISSUE WAS DEMANDED AS A COMPLETE CESSATION OF FOSSIL FUEL BURNING AND TO MOVE THE WORLD’S ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE TO RENEWABLE ENERGY SUCH AS WIND AND SOLAR. TIDAL ENERGY HAD PLAYED A ROLE IN THE ORIGINAL MOVEMENT OF THE 1960S BUT WAS CURIOUSLY MISSING IN THE RESURRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT MORE THAN 20 YEARS LATER. A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE NEW MOVEMENT IS PROVIDED IN A RELATED POST: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/04/13/the-science-of-climate-science-is-fear/ .

(4): FEAR APPEAL

AS SEEN IN ITS HISTORY THIS NEW MOVEMENT AGAINST FOSSIL FUELS IS BASED ON A COMMON METHOD FOR BEHAVIOR MODIFICATION WELL KNOWN IN SOCIOLOGY AND MARKETING CALLED FEAR APPEAL. THE THEORY AND METHODOLOGY OF FEAR APPEAL AS A SOCIAL MANAGEMENT TOOL IS DESCRIBED IN A RELATED POST: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/05/29/fear-appeal-bibiography/ . ESSENTIALLY, FEAR APPPEAL IS A METHOD OF CONTROLLING THE BEHAVIOR OF THE MASSES WITH FEAR OF THE ALTERNATIVES TO WHAT IS PROPOSED.

(5) A GLOBAL MOVEMENT AGAINST FOSSIL FUELS AND THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL

RELATED POST ON THE OZONE DEPLETION ISSUE: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/07/history-of-the-ozone-depletion-scare/ . HERE WE PRESENT THE OZONE DEPLETION ISSUE AS A BACKDROP TO THE CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUE IN TERMS OF THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL THAT HAS BECOME A MODEL FOR GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTALISM. THE APPARENT SOLUTION TO THE OZONE DEPLETION ISSUE WITH A GLOBAL BAN ON CFC EMISSIONS ORCHESTRATED BY THE UNITED NATIONS IN A GLOBAL AGREEMENT SERVES AS THE MODEL FOR A GLOBALLY COORDINATED GLOBAL CLIMATE ACTION TO ELIMINATE THE COMBUSTION OF FOSSIL FUELS AND TO MOVE THE WORLD’S ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FROM FOSSIL FUELS TO RENEWABLES AS A WAY OF HALTING GLOBAL WARMING AND THUS “SAVING THE PLANET” FROM THE HORRORS OF UNCONTROLLED GLOBAL WARMING DESCRIBED BY THEDAVID AND HIS HELPERS IN THE VIDEO ABOVE.

(6) FAILURE OF THE UN TO REPEAT THEIR MONTREAL PROTOCOL SUCCESS IN THE CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUE.

RELATED POST ON THE FAILURE OF THE UN: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/06/05/the-paris-agreement/

IN THE RELATED POST WE NOTE THAT THE EXPECTATION OF A MONTREAL PROTOCOL FOR CLIMATE CHANGE WAS UNRELISTIC AND IT HAS NOT BEEN ACHIEVED BY THE UNITED NATIONS. THEIR FAILURE IS DESCRIBED IN TERMS OF THE COLLAPSE OF COP15 IN COPENHAGEN AND A NONSENSICAL CLIMATE ACTION “AGREEMENT” SIGNED IN COP25 IN PARIS. THE THE COMPLETE SURRENDER OF THE UN IS FOUND IN THE NEW ROLE OF THE SECRETARY GENERAL AS CHEERLEADER FOR THE CLIMATE HEROISM FOR NATION STATES IN THE ABSENCE OF A GLOBAL AGREEMENT.

NUMNUT UN BUREAUCRAT USES COVID TO SELL CLIMATE | Thongchai Thailand

OUR INTERPRETATION OF THE CONTENT OF “THE SCIENCE OF OUR PLANET” VIDEO IN THE CONTEXT OF THE 6 ITEMS OF THE HISTORICAL BACKGROUND PRESENTED ABOVE.

THIS COLLECTION OF THE UNINFORMED DRIVEL AND EMOTIONAL ARGUMENTS FOR CLIMATE ACTION APPARENTLY DIRECTED TO INDIVIDUALS WATCHING THE VIDEO IS A FORM OF COMPLETE SURRENDER OF THE CLIMATE MOVEMENT WHERE FEAR APPEAL STRATEGIES AND THE GLOBAL COP MEETINGS OF THE UNITED NATIONS AND THE FEAR OF CLIMATE CHANGE EXTENDED TO IMPOSSIBLE LIMITS SUCH AS THE DESTRUCTION OF THE PLANET HAVE ALL FAILED.

WHAT WE SEE HERE IS A COMPLETE SURRENDER OF THE CLIMATE MOVEMENT AND A DRAMATIC SHIFT IN THE STRATEGY FROM COMMAND AND CONTROL TO A KIND OF BEGGING FOR CLIMATE ACTION.

THE CLIMATE GAME HAS FAILED

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WHAT DOES NET-ZERO MEAN? | Thongchai Thailand

THIS POST IS A COLLECTION OF LINKS TO POSTS ON THIS SITE ON THE TOPIC OF THE POST HOC EVENT ATTRIBUTION PROCEDURE USED BY CLIMATE SCIENCE TO CLAIM THAT THE SELECTED EXTREME WEATHER EVENT WAS CAUSED BY ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING.

(1): RELATED POST#1: THE ORIGIN OF EVENT ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE (EAS): LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/07/10/event-attribution-science-a-case-study/

EXCERPT: The Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM) redefined climate change impacts funding by rich industrialized coountries to poor third world countries as a form of compensation for loss and damage due to extreme weather events. Whereas these funds were defined as payable for all extreme weather events, the WIM requires that compensation can be sought only if the extreme weather event is attributable to fossil fuel emissions. A probabilistic methodology was devised to address the need for attribution. The procedure uses a large number of climate model experiments. The probability of an observed extreme weather event with anthropogenic emissions and the probability without anthropogenic emissions are derived from climate model experiments as P1=with and P0=without. The condition P1>P0 is taken to mean that emissions played a role in the occurrence of the event in question and that therefore the extreme weather event is attributable to AGW. The probability that fossil fuel emissions played a role in the extreme weather event is proposed as P=(P1-P0)/P0. The problem here is uncertainty because the significant standard deviations in the estimation of P1 & P0 are acknowledged but ignored.

(2) RELATED POST#2: AN EXAMPLE OF THE APPLICATION OF EVENT ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS. LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/06/29/diffenbaugh-2017-extreme-weather-of-climate-change/

CITATION: Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events. Diffenbaugh, Singh, & Swain ET AL, PNAS April 24, 2017, Edited by Kerry A. Emanuel. FINDING: We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats

CRITICAL COMMENTARY: THE TIME SCALE FOR THE STUDY AND THE EXTENT OF THE OBSERVED AREA AFFECTED ARE NOT PRE-SPECIFIED NOR CONSTRAINED BY THE RESEARCH QUESTION AND THEREFORE OPEN TO THE CONFIRMATION BIAS OF THE RESEARCHER. THE CONFIRMATION BIAS OF THE RESEARCHER GUIDES THE SELECTION OF THE DATA AND THEIR INTERPRETATION. UNBIASED OBJECTIVE SCIENTIFIC INQUIRY BEGINS WITH THE RESEARCH QUESTION BUT EVENT ATTRIBUTION RESEARCH BEGINS WITH THE DATA.

(3): RELATED POST#3: AN EXAMPLE OF THE ATTRIBUTION OF EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS TO AGW WITHOUT THE USE OF EVENT ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/01/30/the-extreme-weather-of-climate-change/

THIS STUDY IS FROM AUSTRALIA. HERE WE FIND THAT THE EXTREME WEATHER IMPACT OF AGW IS ASSESSED FOR EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS IN AUSTRALIA. THE FOLLOWING EVENTS ARE CITED:

1. On January 4 last year, a suburb in Sydney’s west was the hottest place on earth.

2. In early February of the same year, Sydney received more rain in 4 days than in the previous 6 months.

3. The cost of extreme weather in Australia has risen to $35 billion in the past decade (2010-2020).

4. Last summer’s fires burned more than 20% of the country’s forests.

CRITICAL COMMENTS:

  1. The analysis of global warming and global climate action in terms of Australian emissions and Australian temperatures is not possible.
  2. It is not possible that temperature events or short term temperature dynamics geographically limited to Australia can be understood in terms of AGW. The theory of AGW does not contain information for making temperature forecasts for Australia at decadal time scales.
  3. The claims with respect to rising destructive impacts of AGW in terms of forest fires, droughts, and high temperatures are made in terms of the cost of extreme weather in Australia without consideration of inflation In fact, this comparison is made over a period of high inflation such that $100 in 1970 is equivalent to $1,193 in 2020. If over this period the cost of extreme weather only doubled, it does not imply rising damage due to extreme weather. It actually implies declining damage due to extreme weather .
  4. No rationale is provided for the attribution of these extreme weather events to anthropogenic global warming (AGW). The internal climate variability issue would make it impossible to claim this attribution. Besides, climate science requires that, at the minimum, such attribution must be supported by “Event Attribution” analysis.
  5. THAT AN EXTREME WEATHER EVENT OCCURRED DURING A PERIOD OF GLOBAL WARMING IS NOT EVIDENCE THAT IT WAS CAUSED BY GLOBAL WARMING.
Will Steffen: The Age of the Anthropocene - YouTube
IT

IT IS NOTEWORTHY THAT THE LEAD AUTHOR OF THE PAPER IS WILL STEFFEN OF ANTHROPOCENE FAME KNOWN FOR HIS OBSESSION WITH A GEOLOGICAL CONTROL OF THE PLANET BY THE HUMANS.

Stratigraphic and Earth System approaches to defining the Anthropocene -  Steffen - 2016 - Earth's Future - Wiley Online Library

Quora | UX Case Study. 'Who doesn't have questions and who… | by Namrata  Dhall | UX Planet

QUESTION: What large studies or meta-analyses have been published that provide the most irrefutable evidence that climate change is occurring and is dangerous?

(1): That global waming is occurring is seen in the temperature data presented in the document linked below.

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/01/11/global-warming-dec2020/

(2): That such warming trends can have both positive and negative effects on human civilization is seen in the the boom and bust cycles of human civilization described in the document linked below.

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/10/24/collapse-of-civilization-part-2/

(3): A specific boom and bust cycle in this sequence is the rise and fall of the Late Bronze Age civilization where both the rise and the fall are attributed to climate change. A specific aspect of the Late Bronze Age collapse is that it gave rise to the religions of the early Iron Age that contain some kind of a genetic memory of that horror of the Late Bronze Age Collapse expressed as the END TIMES as well as things like Genesis that gives man dominion as the managers and caretakers of nature. This, I think, is what created man’s self image as the caretakers of nature in the Iron Age, an assumed role that leads to a tendency to interpret of all observed changes as impacts of humans. This bias can create the assumption of a human role in climate change such that this bias thus instilled makes it possible for humans to find a human cause under a wide range of the data conditions.

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/02/15/divine-environmentalism/

Bronze Age Collapse - World History Encyclopedia

(4): Human civilization is itself a creation of global warming. We used to be cannibalistic animals until the first of the Holocene’s global warming event came along. It brought the human animals came out of their caves to cut down forests, build homes, and start farming.

GLOBAL WARMING CHANGED US FROM THIS:

Image result for the paleolithic era of humans

TO THIS …. AND CREATED HUMAN CIVILIZATION.

Image result for HUMAN SOCIETY IN THE NEOLITHIC REVOLUTION

HUMAN CIVILIZATION IS A CREATION OF GLOBAL WARMING.

(5): What we find in the history of global warming in the Holocene is that there are things about long term global cooling and warming trends that severely impact humans and nature in general although these impacts have been both good and bad in the history of the temperature cycles of the Holocene. However, I think the real issue in our obsession with the current warming trend is the human cause proposition imposed by climate science to explain one of many such temperature excursions of the Holocene.

(6): Those who claim to understand these temperature excursions as cause and effect phenomena should explain all of them and not pick just one of them to explain. That kind of science contains a methodological flaw called “data selection bias” and confirmation bias.

Don't let confirmation bias narrow your perspective — News Literacy Project
Some say climate change marks the Anthropocene, a new geological age.  They're wrong.

LINK TO QUORA: https://www.quora.com/What-large-studies-or-meta-analyses-have-been-published-that-provide-the-most-irrefutable-evidence-that-climate-change-is-occurring-and-is-dangerous/answer/Jamal-Munshi?ch=8&share=a558a7d9&srid=CJiz