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Archive for May 2021

The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health – a Sobering New Report

QUESTION How is climate change impacting our health?

ANSWER: Note that the question is HOW is climate change impacting our health? Not WHETHER climate change is impacting our health. That part is subsumed into the question.

The climate change issue of our time has turned into an expression of the superstition and confirmation bias of humans that are very fundamentally how our brain works.

The evil of climate denialism must be understood as a control mechanism. It is sinful to disagree with climate scientists. We are tailor made to be suckers for this kind of fear mongering as a control mechanism. We are the puppets of the climate science puppet masters.

CLIMATE SCIENCE LOOKS A LOT LIKE SOME KIND OF CONTROL MECHANISM

Cartoon puppet Royalty Free Vector Image - VectorStock

If for nothing else we must get past this climate thing just to get our freedom back.

Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds: MacKay, Charles:  9781463740511: Amazon.com: Books

RELATED POSTS ON THIS SITE:

THE GREAT RESET: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/12/09/the-great-reset/

SUPERSTITION AND CONFIRMATION BIAS: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/03/confirmationbias/

POPULAR DELUSIONS AND THE MADNESSS OF CROWDS: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/04/30/charles-mackay/

Entangled Minds: Witch burning

Magazine All about Anthropocene – SGK-Planet

THIS POST IS A PRESENTATION OF HOLOCENE CLIMATE CHANGE EVENTS AS A CONTEXT FOR THE STUDY OF THE CURRENT WARMING CYCLE.

In the Quaternary Ice Age in which we live, the earth is mostly {80% to 90% of the time} in a Glaciation state exhibiting glacial growth in the earlier portion and glacial retreat in the latter portion but with both processes exhibiting chaotic behavior such that glaciation is not a steady cooling period and deglaciation is not a steady warming period. Instead, both temperature trends of the glaciation cycle contain chaotic cycles of warming and cooling at centennial and millennial time scales.

In between glaciation periods are brief deglaciated warm periods we call Interglacials. We are currently in the Holocene Interglacial. The previous Interglacial was the Eemian. In the Eemian interglacial we see that the chaotic back and forth cyclical and chaotic progress of the glaciation phase is also seen in the interglacial phase. Thus, in the Eemian interglacial we find a similarly violent state of cyclical climate oscillation between cold and hot periods. Thus the cyclical and violent changes of warming and and cooling seen in glaciation periods are also found in Interglacials. These  changes within Interglacials also occur at centennial and millennial time scales.

Similar cycles of cooling and warming are also found in the Holocene from its violent inception in the Younger Dryas event to the present. The Younger Dryas Event (YDE) shows that as soon as the Last Glacial Period had apparently ended, a series of brief but violent cycles of glaciation and deglaciation at centennial and millennial time scales intervened. The cooling period drove temperatures in Greenland down by 15C over a period of 300 years. Following that, a strong warming trend at a centennial time scale caused a warming of 17C and it seemed that the Holocene Interglacial warmth had finally arrived but the Holocene temperature chaos was not over yet.

About 9,000 years ago a strong cooling trend set in and persisted for 800 years. It is called the 8.2K cooling event because it ended 8,200 years ago. The Holocene interglacial recovered from the 8.2K cooling event and warmed to what is called “Holocene Climate Optimum” (HCO) or the “Mid Holocene Warming” (MHW) about 7000Y ago. The significance of this warming for us humans is that it is credited with the Neolithic Revolution that is thought to have created human civilization. It brought hunter gatherer humans out of the forests and caves and into a settled agricultural economy with farms and permanent homes, human society, and nation states, human innovations, and technology. Four other Holocene temperature events since the HCO are considered important in the climate history of the Holocene interglacial. These are the Bronze Age warm period ≈3000YBP, (also called the Minoan Warm Period (BAWP), the Roman warm period (RWP)≈2000YBP, the Medieval warm period (MWP) ≈1100YBP, and the Little Ice Age (LIA) ≈500YBP-100YBP.

The current warm period that followed the LIA is described as Anthropogenic {human caused} Global Warming (AGW) because it coincides with the Industrial Revolution when humans began to burn fossil fuels and therefore not a natural recovery from the LIA. This interpretation may derive from the other unique feature of the current warming cycle.

The current temperature cycle of the Holocene is the first temperature excursion of the Holocene where we find a unique new feature of the surface of the earth called “climate scientists” armed with a world view called “environmentalism”.

In this world view, everything bad is assumed to be a human impact that can and must be undone by identifying the human activity that COULD be causing the bad thing and then for humans to cease and desist from that anti nature activity. The key to understanding the logic of such environmentalism is the PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE which says in essence that we can’t prove we are right but you can’t take the chance that we are right. The precautionary principle is described in a related post: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/12/27/superstitious-humans/

This new world view of a human controlled planet, called the Anthropocene, implies that the warming cycle prior to the Anthropocene were natural but any temperature excursion of the Anthropocene must have been human caused and that therefore it is human controlled by definition and that therefore it can and must be moderated by humans to save the planet in the Anthropocene.

Yet, those who profess to understand interglacial temperature cycles as cause and effect phenomena should explain all of them in that way. That they picked just one of them to explain implies a BIAS in their methodology. That kind of science suffers from a fatal methodological error in the form of DATA SELECTION BIAS and CONFIRMATION BIAS.

What Is Confirmation Bias, Are You Blinded By It? - Ultimatemental models

THE ENDING 50,000 YEARS OF THE LAST GLACIATION CYCLE

RELATED POSTS ON THE ANTHROPOCENE

LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/12/07/the-holocene-is-the-anthropocene/

Some say climate change marks the Anthropocene, a new geological age.  They're wrong.

LINK#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/07/13/the-anthropocene-fallacy/

HOLOCENE TEMPERATURE CYCLES: A BIBLIOGRAPHY

  1. Denton, George H., and Wibjörn Karlén. “Holocene climatic variations—their pattern and possible cause.” Quaternary Research 3.2 (1973): 155-205. In the northeastern St. Elias Mountains in southern Yukon Territory and Alaska, C14-dated fluctuations of 14 glacier termini show two major intervals of Holocene glacier expansion, the older dating from 3300-2400 calendar yr BP and the younger corresponding to the Little Ice Age of the last several centuries. Both were about equivalent in magnitude. In addition, a less-extensive and short-lived advance occurred about 1250-1050 calendar yr BP (A.D. 700–900). Conversely, glacier recession, commonly accompanied by rise in altitude of spruce tree line, occurred 5975–6175, 4030-3300, 2400-1250, and 1050-460 calendar yr BP, and from A.D. 1920 to the present. Examination of worldwide Holocene glacier fluctuations reinforces this scheme and points to a third major interval of glacier advances about 5800-4900 calendar yrs BP; this interval generally was less intense than the two younger major intervals. Finally, detailed mapping and dating of Holocene moraines fronting 40 glaciers in the Kebnekaise and Sarek Mountains in Swedish Lapland reveals again that the Holocene was punctuated by repeated intervals of glacier expansion that correspond to those found in the St. Elias Mountains and elsewhere. The two youngest intervals, which occurred during the Little Ice Age and again about 2300–3000 calendar yrs BP, were approximately equal in intensity. Advances of the two older intervals, which occurred approximately 5000 and 8000 calendar yr BP, were generally less extensive. Minor glacier fluctuations were superimposed on all four broad expansion intervals; glacial expansions of the Little Ice Age culminated about A.D. 1500–1640, 1710, 1780, 1850, 1890, and 1916. In the mountains of Swedish Lapland, Holocene mean summer temperature rarely, if ever, was lower than 1°C below the 1931–1960 summer mean. Summer temperatures varied by less than 3.5°C over the last two broad intervals of Holocene glacial expansion and contraction. Viewed as a whole, therefore, the Holocene experienced alternating intervals of glacier expansion and contraction that probably were superimposed on the broad climatic trends recognized in pollen profiles and deep-sea cores. Expansion intervals lasted up to 900 yr and contraction intervals up to 1750 yr. Dates of glacial maxima indicate that the major Holocene intervals of expansion peaked at about 200–330, 2800, and 5300 calendar yr BP, suggesting a recurrence of major glacier activity about each 2500 yr. If projected further into the past, this Holocene pattern predicts that alternating glacier expansion-contraction intervals should have been superimposed on the Late-Wisconsin glaciation, with glacier readvances peaking about 7800, 10,300, 12,800, and 15,300 calendar yr BP. These major readvances should have been separated by intervals of general recession, some of which might have been punctuated by short-lived advances. Furthermore, the time scales of Holocene events and their Late-Wisconsin analogues should be comparable. Considering possible errors in C14 dating, this extended Holocene scheme agrees reasonably well with the chronology and magnitude of such Late-Wisconsin events as the Cochrane-Cockburn readvance (8000–8200 C14 yr BP), the Pre-Boreal interstadial, the Fennoscandian readvances during the Younger Dryas stadial (10,850-10,050 varve yr BP), the Alleröd interstadial (11,800-10,900 C14 yr BP), the Port Huron readvance (12,700–13,000 C14 yr BP), the Cary/Port Huron interstadial (centered about 13,300 C14 yr BP), and the Cary stadial (14,000–15,000 C14 yr BP). Moreover, comparison of presumed analogues such as the Little Ice Age and the Younger Dryas, or the Alleröd and the Roman Empire-Middle Ages warm interval, show marked similarities. These results suggest that a recurring pattern of minor climatic variations, with a dominant overprint of cold intervals peaking about each 2500 yr, was superimposed on long-term Holocene and Late-Wisconsin climatic trends. Should this pattern continue to repeat itself, the Little Ice Age will be succeeded within the next few centuries by a long interval of milder climates similar to those of the Roman Empire and Middle Ages. Short-term atmospheric C14 variations measured from tree rings correlate closely with Holocene glacier and tree-line fluctuations during the last 7000 yr. Such a correspondence, firstly, suggests that the record of short-term C14 variations may be an empirical indicator of paleoclimates and, secondly, points to a possible cause of Holocene climatic variations. The most prominent explanation of short-term C14 variations involves modulation of the galactic cosmic-ray flux by varying solar corpuscular activity. If this explanation proves valid and if the solar constant can be shown to vary with corpuscular output, it would suggest that Holocene glacier and climatic fluctuations, because of their close correlation with short-term C14 variations, were caused by varying solar activity. By extension, this would imply a similar cause for Late-Wisconsin climatic fluctuations such as the Alleröd and Younger Dryas.
  2. Hammer, Claus U., Henrik B. Clausen, and Willi Dansgaard. “Greenland ice sheet evidence of post-glacial volcanism and its climatic impact.” Nature 288.5788 (1980): 230. Acidity profiles along well dated Greenland ice cores reveal large volcanic eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere during the past 10,000 yr. Comparison with a temperature index shows that clustered eruptions have a considerable cooling effect on climate, which further complicates climatic predictions.
  3. O’Brien, S. R., (Mayewski). “Complexity of Holocene climate as reconstructed from a Greenland ice core.” Science 270.5244 (1995): 1962-1964.  Glaciochemical time series developed from Summit, Greenland, indicate that the chemical composition of the atmosphere was dynamic during the Holocene epoch. Concentrations of sea salt and terrestrial dusts increased in Summit snow during the periods 0 to 600, 2400 to 3100, 5000 to 6100, 7800 to 8800, and more than 11,300 years ago. The most recent increase, and also the most abrupt, coincides with the Little Ice Age. These changes imply that either the north polar vortex expanded or the meridional air flow intensified during these periods, and that temperatures in the mid to high northern latitudes were potentially the coldest since the Younger Dryas event.
  4. Angelakis, Andreas N., and Stylianos V. Spyridakis. “The status of water resources in Minoan times: A preliminary study.” Diachronic Climatic Impacts on Water Resources. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 1996. 161-191.A well-known passage in Homer’s Odyssey, probably based on an ancient ritual myth, tells the story of Demeter, the Greek corn-goddess and Iasion, the son of Zeus by Electra, daughter of Atlas. The latter was the guardian of the pillars of heaven (Odyssey, 1.53), the Titan who holds the sky up (Hesiod, Theogony, 517) and is, thereby, identified with water and rainfall. [FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD .
  5. Alley, Richard B., (Mayewski)  “Holocene climatic instability: A prominent, widespread event 8200 yr ago.” Geology 25.6 (1997): 483-486.  The most prominent Holocene climatic event in Greenland ice-core proxies, with approximately half the amplitude of the Younger Dryas, occurred ∼8000 to 8400 yr ago. This Holocene event affected regions well beyond the North Atlantic basin, as shown by synchronous increases in windblown chemical indicators together with a significant decrease in methane. Widespread proxy records from the tropics to the north polar regions show a short-lived cool, dry, or windy event of similar age. The spatial pattern of terrestrial and marine changes is similar to that of the Younger Dryas event, suggesting a role for North Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Possible forcings identified thus far for this Holocene event are small, consistent with recent model results indicating high sensitivity and strong linkages in the climatic system.
  6. Bond, Gerard, et al. “A pervasive millennial-scale cycle in North Atlantic Holocene and glacial climates.” science278.5341 (1997): 1257-1266.  Evidence from North Atlantic deep sea cores reveals that abrupt shifts punctuated what is conventionally thought to have been a relatively stable Holocene climate. During each of these episodes, cool, ice-bearing waters from north of Iceland were advected as far south as the latitude of Britain. At about the same times, the atmospheric circulation above Greenland changed abruptly. Pacings of the Holocene events and of abrupt climate shifts during the last glaciation are statistically the same; together, they make up a series of climate shifts with a cyclicity close to 1470 ± 500 years. The Holocene events, therefore, appear to be the most recent manifestation of a pervasive millennial-scale climate cycle operating independently of the glacial-interglacial climate state. Amplification of the cycle during the last glaciation may have been linked to the North Atlantic’s thermohaline circulation.
  7. Roberts, Neil, et al. “The age and causes of Mid-Late Holocene environmental change in southwest Turkey.” Third Millennium BC climate change and old world collapse. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 1997. 409-429.  Proxy records such as lake sediment sequences provide important data on abrupt environmental changes in the past, but establishing their specific causes from the palaeoenvironmental record can be problematic. Pollen diagrams from southwest Turkey show a mid-late Holocene pollen assemblage zone, designated as the Beyşehir Occupation phase, the onset of which has been 14C dated to ca. 3000 BP (ca. 1250 BC). A second millennium BC date for the start of the Beyşehir Occupation phase can now be confirmed as a result of the discovery of volcanic tephra from the Minoan eruption of Santorini (Thera) in lake sediment cores from the region. Palaeoecological analyses on sediment cores from Gölhisar gölü, a shallow montane lake, indicate that tephra deposition was followed by a sustained response in the aquatic ecosystem, in the form of increased algal productivity. The onset of pollen changes marking the beginning of the Beyşehir Occupation phase was not, on the other hand, precisely coincident with the tephra layer, but rather occurred at least a century later at this site. Despite the paucity of archaeological evidence for Late Bronze Age settlement in the Oro-Mediterranean region of southwest Turkey, it would appear that the second millennium BC saw the start of a period of major human impact on the landscape which continued until the late first millennium AD. The Santorini ash represents an important time-synchronous, stratigraphic marker horizon, but does not appear to have been the immediate cause of the onset of the Beyş ehir Occupation phase.
  8. Bond, Gerard, et al. “Persistent solar influence on North Atlantic climate during the Holocene.” science 294.5549 (2001): 2130-2136.  Surface winds and surface ocean hydrography in the subpolar North Atlantic appear to have been influenced by variations in solar output through the entire Holocene. The evidence comes from a close correlation between inferred changes in production rates of the cosmogenic nuclides carbon-14 and beryllium-10 and centennial to millennial time scale changes in proxies of drift ice measured in deep-sea sediment cores. A solar forcing mechanism therefore may underlie at least the Holocene segment of the North Atlantic’s “1500-year” cycle. The surface hydrographic changes may have affected production of North Atlantic Deep Water, potentially providing an additional mechanism for amplifying the solar signals and transmitting them globally.
  9. Stenni, Barbara, et al. “Eight centuries of volcanic signal and climate change at Talos Dome (East Antarctica).” Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 107.D9 (2002): ACL-3.  During the 1996 Programma Nazionale di Ricerche in Antartide‐International Trans‐Antarctic Scientific Expedition traverse, two firn cores were retrieved from the Talos Dome area (East Antarctica) at elevations of 2316 m (TD, 89 m long) and 2246 m (ST556, 19 m long). Cores were dated by using seasonal variations in non‐sea‐salt (nss) SO42− concentrations coupled with the recognition of tritium marker level (1965–1966) and nss SO42− spikes due to the most important volcanic events in the past (Pinatubo 1991, Agung 1963, Krakatoa 1883, Tambora 1815, Kuwae 1452, Unknown 1259). The number of annual layers recognized in the TD and ST556 cores was 779 and 97, respectively. The δD record obtained from the TD core has been compared with other East Antarctic isotope ice core records (Dome C EPICA, South Pole, Taylor Dome). These records suggest cooler climate conditions between the middle of 16th and the beginning of 19th centuries, which might be related to the Little Ice Age (LIA) cold period. Because of the high degree of geographical variability, the strongest LIA cooling was not temporally synchronous over East Antarctica, and the analyzed records do not provide a coherent picture for East Antarctica. The accumulation rate record presented for the TD core shows a decrease during part of the LIA followed by an increment of about 11% in accumulation during the 20th century. At the ST556 site, the accumulation rate observed during the 20th century was quite stable.
  10. Mayewski, Paul A. (aka Ice Man). “Holocene climate variability.” Quaternary research 62.3 (2004): 243-255. Although the dramatic climate disruptions of the last glacial period have received considerable attention, relatively little has been directed toward climate variability in the Holocene (11,500 cal yr B.P. to the present). Examination of 50 globally distributed paleoclimate records reveals as many as six periods of significant rapid climate change during the time periods 9000″8000, 6000″5000, 4200″3800, 3500″2500, 1200″1000, and 600″150 cal yr B.P. Most of the climate change events in these globally distributed records are characterized by polar cooling, tropical aridity, and major atmospheric circulation changes, although in the most recent interval (600″150 cal yr B.P.), polar cooling was accompanied by increased moisture in some parts of the tropics. Several intervals coincide with major disruptions of civilization, illustrating the human significance of Holocene climate variability.
  11. Magny, Michel. “Holocene climate variability as reflected by mid-European lake-level fluctuations and its probable impact on prehistoric human settlements.” Quaternary international113.1 (2004): 65-79.  A data set of 180 radiocarbon, tree-ring and archaeological dates obtained from sediment sequences of 26 lakes in the Jura mountains, the northern French Pre-Alps and the Swiss Plateau was used to construct a Holocene mid-European lake-level record. The dates do not indicate a random distribution over the Holocene, but form clusters suggesting an alternation of lower and higher, climatically driven lake-level phases. They provide evidence of a rather unstable Holocene climate punctuated by 15 phases of higher lake-level: 11 250–11 050, 10 300–10 000, 9550–9150, 8300–8050, 7550–7250, 6350–5900, 5650–5200, 4850–4800, 4150–3950, 3500–3100, 2750–2350, 1800–1700, 1300–1100, 750–650 cal. BP and after 1394 AD. A comparison of this mid-European lake-level record with the GISP2-Polar Circulation Index (PCI) record, the North Atlantic ice-rafting debris (IRD) events and the 14C record suggests teleconnections in a complex cryosphere-ocean-atmosphere system. Correlations between the GISP2-PCI, the mid-European lake-level, the North Atlantic IRD, and the residual 14C records, suggest that changes in the solar activity played a major role in Holocene climate oscillations over the North Atlantic area.
  12. Alley, Richard B., and Anna Maria Ágústsdóttir. “The 8k event: cause and consequences of a major Holocene abrupt climate change.” Quaternary Science Reviews 24.10-11 (2005): 1123-1149.  A prominent, abrupt climate event about 8200 years ago brought generally cold and dry conditions to broad northern-hemisphere regions especially in wintertime, in response to a very large outburst flood that freshened the North Atlantic. Changes were much larger than typical climate variability before and after the event, with anomalies up to many degrees contributing to major displacement of vegetative patterns. This “8k” event provides a clear case of cause and effect in the paleoclimatic realm, and so offers an excellent opportunity for model testing. The response to North Atlantic freshening has the same general anomaly pattern as observed for older events associated with abrupt climate changes following North Atlantic freshening, and so greatly strengthens the case that those older events also reflect North Atlantic changes. The North Atlantic involvement in the 8k event helps in estimating limits on climate anomalies that might result in the future if warming-caused ice-melt and hydrologic-cycle intensification at high latitudes lead to major changes in North Atlantic circulation. Few model experiments have directly addressed the 8k event, and most studies of proxy records across this event lack the time resolution to fully characterize the anomalies, so much work remains to be done.
  13. Chew, Sing C. “From Harappa to Mesopotamia and Egypt to Mycenae: Dark Ages, Political-Economic Declines, and Environmental/Climatic Changes 2200 BC–700 BC.” The Historical Evolution of World-Systems. Palgrave Macmillan, New York, 2005. 52-74.  Considerations of hegemonic decline as a world historical process most often attempt to account for decline and collapse of complex institutions in terms of social, political, and economic processes (Gills and Frank 1992). As we increasingly question whether there are physical–environmental limits that would affect the reproduction of world-systems, political, economic, and social dimensions might not be sufficient to account for hegemonic declines. Consideration of environmental and climatological factors needs to be combined with socioeconomic relations in our understanding of hegemonic declines and shifts. This approach assumes that the humans seek to transform nature in an expansive manner, and ceaselessly amass surpluses. There are certain long periods in world history that exhibit large economic and social crises and hegemonic decline. Such long periods of economic and social distress are here termed dark ages.
  14. Gorokhovich, Yuri. “Abandonment of Minoan palaces on Crete in relation to the earthquake induced changes in groundwater supply.” Journal of Archaeological Science 32.2 (2005): 217-222. Mysterious abandonment of palaces on Crete during the Late Minoan period was always a challenging problem for archeologists and geologists. Various hypotheses explained this event by effects of tsunamis, earthquakes or climatic changes that were caused by the volcanic eruption of the Santorini volcano. While each of them or their possible combination contributed to the abandonment of palaces and following Late Minoan crisis, there is another possible cause that appeared as a result of studies within the last 20–30 years. This cause is depletion of groundwater supply caused by persistent earthquake activity that took place during the Bronze Age. This explanation is supported by field observations and numerous studies of similar phenomena in other locations.
  15. Wanner, Heinz, et al. heinzWanner“Mid-to Late Holocene climate change: an overview.” Quaternary Science Reviews 27.19-20 (2008): 1791-1828.  The last 6000 years are of particular interest to the understanding of the Earth System because the boundary conditions of the climate system did not change dramatically (in comparison to larger glacial–interglacial changes), and because abundant, detailed regional palaeoclimatic proxy records cover this period. We use selected proxy-based reconstructions of different climate variables, together with state-of-the-art time series of natural forcings (orbital variations, solar activity variations, large tropical volcanic eruptions, land cover and greenhouse gases), underpinned by results from General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs), to establish a comprehensive explanatory framework for climate changes from the Mid-Holocene (MH) to pre-industrial time. The redistribution of solar energy, due to orbital forcing on a millennial timescale, was the cause of a progressive southward shift of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). This was accompanied by a pronounced weakening of the monsoon systems in Africa and Asia and increasing dryness and desertification on both continents. The associated summertime cooling of the NH, combined with changing temperature gradients in the world oceans, likely led to an increasing amplitude of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and, possibly, increasingly negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices up to the beginning of the last millennium. On decadal to multi-century timescales, a worldwide coincidence between solar irradiance minima, tropical volcanic eruptions and decadal to multi-century scale cooling events was not found. However, reconstructions show that widespread decadal to multi-century scale cooling events, accompanied by advances of mountain glaciers, occurred in the NH (e.g., in Scandinavia and the European Alps). This occurred namely during the Little Ice Age (LIA) between AD ∼1350 and 1850, when the lower summer insolation in the NH, due to orbital forcing, coincided with solar activity minima and several strong tropical volcanic eruptions. The role of orbital forcing in the NH cooling, the southward ITCZ shift and the desertification of the Sahara are supported by numerous model simulations. Other simulations have suggested that the fingerprint of solar activity variations should be strongest in the tropics, but there is also evidence that changes in the ocean heat transport took place during the LIA at high northern latitudes, with possible additional implications for climates of the Southern Hemisphere (SH).
  16. ? Scafetta, Nicola. “Empirical evidence for a celestial origin of the climate oscillations and its implications.” Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 72.13 (2010): 951-970.  We investigate whether or not the decadal and multi-decadal climate oscillations have an astronomical origin. Several global surface temperature records since 1850 and records deduced from the orbits of the planets present very similar power spectra. Eleven frequencies with period between 5 and 100 years closely correspond in the two records. Among them, large climate oscillations with peak-to-trough amplitude of about 0.1 and 0.25°C, and periods of about 20 and 60 years, respectively, are synchronized to the orbital periods of Jupiter and Saturn. Schwabe and Hale solar cycles are also visible in the temperature records. A 9.1-year cycle is synchronized to the Moon’s orbital cycles. A phenomenological model based on these astronomical cycles can be used to well reconstruct the temperature oscillations since 1850 and to make partial forecasts for the 21st century. It is found that at least 60% of the global warming observed since 1970 has been induced by the combined effect of the above natural climate oscillations. The partial forecast indicates that climate may stabilize or cool until 2030–2040. Possible physical mechanisms are qualitatively discussed with an emphasis on the phenomenon of collective synchronization of coupled oscillators.
  17. Tsonis, A. A., et al. “Climate change and the demise of Minoan civilization.” Climate of the Past 6.4 (2010): 525-530.  Climate change has been implicated in the success and downfall of several ancient civilizations. Here we present a synthesis of historical, climatic, and geological evidence that supports the hypothesis that climate change may have been responsible for the slow demise of Minoan civilization. Using proxy ENSO and precipitation reconstruction data in the period 1650–1980 we present empirical and quantitative evidence that El Nino causes drier conditions in the area of Crete. This result is supported by modern data analysis as well as by model simulations. Though not very strong, the ENSO-Mediterranean drying signal appears to be robust, and its overall effect was accentuated by a series of unusually strong and long-lasting El Nino events during the time of the Minoan decline. Indeed, a change in the dynamics of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system occurred around 3000 BC, which culminated in a series of strong and frequent El Nino events starting at about 1450 BC and lasting for several centuries. This stressful climatic trend, associated with the gradual demise of the Minoans, is argued to be an important force acting in the downfall of this classic and long-lived civilization.  FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD
  18. Wanner, Heinz, et al. “Structure and origin of Holocene cold events.” Quaternary Science Reviews 30.21-22 (2011): 3109-3123. The present interglacial, the Holocene, spans the period of the last 11,700 years. It has sustained the growth and development of modern society. The millennial-scale decreasing solar insolation in the Northern Hemisphere summer lead to Northern Hemisphere cooling, a southern shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and a weakening of the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon systems. On the multidecadal to multicentury-scale, periods of more stable and warmer climate were interrupted by several cold relapses, at least in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical area. Based on carefully selected 10,000-year-long time series of temperature and humidity/precipitation, as well as reconstructions of glacier advances, the spatiotemporal pattern of six cold relapses during the last 10,000 years was analysed and presented in form of a Holocene Climate Atlas (HOCLAT; see http://www.oeschger.unibe.ch/research/projects/holocene_atlas/). A clear cyclicity was not found, and the spatiotemporal variability of temperature and humidity/precipitation during the six specific cold events (8200, 6300, 4700, 2700, 1550 and 550 years BP) was very high. Different dynamical processes such as meltwater flux into the North Atlantic, low solar activity, explosive volcanic eruptions, and fluctuations of the thermohaline circulation likely played a major role. In addition, internal dynamics in the North Atlantic and Pacific area (including their complex interaction) were likely involved. AUTHOR’S NOTES: {Based on temperature, humidity and glacier data, we analyze Holocene cold events. During the Holocene a clear cyclicity between warm and cold periods was not found.  Single cold relapses are subject to different dynamical processes. The six analyzed cold events show different spatial structures.}
  19. Humlum, Ole, Jan-Erik Solheim, and Kjell Stordahl. “Identifying natural contributions to late Holocene climate change.” Global and Planetary Change 79.1-2 (2011): 145-156.  Analytic climate models have provided the means to predict potential impacts on future climate by anthropogenic changes in atmospheric composition. However, future climate development will not only be influenced by anthropogenic changes, but also by natural variations. The knowledge on such natural variations and their detailed character, however, still remains incomplete. Here we present a new technique to identify the character of natural climate variations, and from this, to produce testable forecast of future climate. By means of Fourier and wavelet analyses climate series are decomposed into time–frequency space, to extract information on periodic signals embedded in the data series and their amplitude and variation over time. We chose to exemplify the potential of this technique by analysing two climate series, the Svalbard (78°N) surface air temperature series 1912–2010, and the last 4000 years of the reconstructed GISP2 surface temperature series from central Greenland. By this we are able to identify several cyclic climate variations which appear persistent on the time scales investigated. Finally, we demonstrate how such persistent natural variations can be used for hindcasting and forecasting climate. Our main focus is on identifying the character (timing, period, amplitude) of such recurrent natural climate variations, but we also comment on the likely physical explanations for some of the identified cyclic climate variations. The causes of millennial climate changes remain poorly understood, and this issue remains important for understanding causes for natural climate variability over decadal- and decennial time scales. We argue that Fourier and wavelet approaches like ours may contribute towards improved understanding of the role of such recurrent natural climate variations in the future climate development.
  20. Drake, Brandon L. “The influence of climatic change on the Late Bronze Age Collapse and the Greek Dark Ages.” Journal of Archaeological Science 39.6 (2012): 1862-1870.  Between the 13th and 11th centuries BCE, most Greek Bronze Age Palatial centers were destroyed and/or abandoned. The following centuries were typified by low population levels. Data from oxygen-isotope speleothems, stable carbon isotopes, alkenone-derived seasurface temperatures, and changes in warm-species dinocysts and formanifera in the Mediterranean indicate that the Early Iron Age was more arid than the preceding Bronze Age. A sharp increase in Northern Hemisphere temperatures preceded the collapse of Palatial centers, a sharp decrease occurred during their abandonment. Mediterranean Seasurface temperatures cooled rapidly during the Late Bronze Age, limiting freshwater flux into the atmosphere and thus reducing precipitation over land. These climatic changes could have affected Palatial centers that were dependent upon high levels of agricultural productivity. Declines in agricultural production would have made higher-density populations in Palatial centers unsustainable. The ‘Greek Dark Ages’ that followed occurred during prolonged arid conditions that lasted until the Roman Warm Period.

CHAOS THEORY IN CLIMATE SCIENCE: A BIBLIOGRAPHY

  1. Zeng, Xubin, Roger A. Pielke, and R. Eykholt. “Chaos theory and its applications to the atmosphere.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 74.4 (1993): 631-644.  A brief overview of chaos theory is presented, including bifurcations, routes to turbulence, and methods for characterizing chaos. The paper divides chaos applications in atmospheric sciences into three categories: new ideas and insights inspired by chaos, analysis of observational data, and analysis of output from numerical models. Based on the review of chaos theory and the classification of chaos applications, suggestions for future work are given.
  2. Marotzke, Jochem. “Abrupt climate change and thermohaline circulation: Mechanisms and predictability.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 97.4 (2000): 1347-1350.  The ocean’s thermohaline circulation has long been recognized as potentially unstable and has consequently been invoked as a potential cause of abrupt climate change on all timescales of decades and longer. However, fundamental aspects of thermohaline circulation changes remain poorly understood. [LINK TO FULL TEXT PDF]
  3. Rial, Jose A., and C. A. Anaclerio. “Understanding nonlinear responses of the climate system to orbital forcing.” Quaternary Science Reviews 19.17-18 (2000): 1709-1722.  Frequency modulation (FM) of the orbital eccentricity forcing may be one important source of the nonlinearities observed in δ18O time series from deep-sea sediment cores (J.H. Rial (1999a) Pacemaking the lce Ages by frequency modulation of Earth’s orbital eccentricity. Science 285, 564–568). Here we present further evidence of frequency modulation found in data from the Vostok ice core. Analyses of the 430,000-year long, orbitally untuned, time series of CO2, deuterium, aerosol and methane, suggest frequency modulation of the 41 kyr (0.0244 kyr−1) obliquity forcing by the 413 kyr-eccentricity signal and its harmonics. Conventional and higher-order spectral analyses show that two distinct spectral peaks at ∼29 kyr (0.034 kyr−1) and ∼69 kyr (0.014 kyr−1) and other, smaller peaks surrounding the 41 kyr obliquity peak are harmonically (nonlinearly) related and likely to be FM-generated sidebands of the obliquity signal. All peaks can be closely matched by the spectrum of an appropriately built theoretical FM signal. A preliminary model, based on the classic logistic growth delay differential equation, reproduces the longer period FM effect and the familiar multiply peaked spectra of the eccentricity band. Since the FM effect appears to be a common feature in climate response, finding out its cause may help understand climate dynamics and global climate change.
  4. Ashkenazy, Yosef, et al. “Nonlinearity and multifractality of climate change in the past 420,000 years.” Geophysical research letters 30.22 (2003).  Evidence of past climate variations are stored in polar ice caps and indicate glacial‐interglacial cycles of ∼100 kyr. Using advanced scaling techniques we study the long‐range correlation properties of temperature proxy records of four ice cores from Antarctica and Greenland. These series are long‐range correlated in the time scales of 1–100 kyr. We show that these time series are nonlinear for time scales of 1–100 kyr as expressed by temporal long‐range correlations of magnitudes of temperature increments and by a broad multifractal spectrum. Our results suggest that temperature increments appear in clusters of big and small increments—a big (positive or negative) climate change is most likely followed by a big (positive or negative) climate change and a small climate change is most likely followed by a small climate change.
  5. Rial, Jose A. “Abrupt climate change: chaos and order at orbital and millennial scales.” Global and Planetary Change 41.2 (2004): 95-109.  Successful prediction of future global climate is critically dependent on understanding its complex history, some of which is displayed in paleoclimate time series extracted from deep-sea sediment and ice cores. These recordings exhibit frequent episodes of abrupt climate change believed to be the result of nonlinear response of the climate system to internal or external forcing, yet, neither the physical mechanisms nor the nature of the nonlinearities involved are well understood. At the orbital (104–105 years) and millennial scales, abrupt climate change appears as sudden, rapid warming events, each followed by periods of slow cooling. The sequence often forms a distinctive saw-tooth shaped time series, epitomized by the deep-sea records of the last million years and the Dansgaard–Oeschger (D/O) oscillations of the last glacial. Here I introduce a simplified mathematical model consisting of a novel arrangement of coupled nonlinear differential equations that appears to capture some important physics of climate change at Milankovitch and millennial scales, closely reproducing the saw-tooth shape of the deep-sea sediment and ice core time series, the relatively abrupt mid-Pleistocene climate switch, and the intriguing D/O oscillations. Named LODE for its use of the logistic-delayed differential equation, the model combines simplicity in the formulation (two equations, small number of adjustable parameters) and sufficient complexity in the dynamics (infinite-dimensional nonlinear delay differential equation) to accurately simulate details of climate change other simplified models cannot. Close agreement with available data suggests that the D/O oscillations are frequency modulated by the third harmonic of the precession forcing, and by the precession itself, but the entrained response is intermittent, mixed with intervals of noise, which corresponds well with the idea that the climate operates at the edge between chaos and order. LODE also predicts a persistent ∼1.5 ky oscillation that results from the frequency modulated regional climate oscillation.
  6. Huybers, Peter, and Carl Wunsch. “Obliquity pacing of the late Pleistocene glacial terminations.” Nature 434.7032 (2005): 491.  The 100,000-year timescale in the glacial/interglacial cycles of the late Pleistocene epoch (the past ∼700,000 years) is commonly attributed to control by variations in the Earth’s orbit1. This hypothesis has inspired models that depend on the Earth’s obliquity (∼ 40,000 yr; ∼40 kyr), orbital eccentricity (∼ 100 kyr) and precessional (∼ 20 kyr) fluctuations2,3,4,5, with the emphasis usually on eccentricity and precessional forcing. According to a contrasting hypothesis, the glacial cycles arise primarily because of random internal climate variability6,7,8. Taking these two perspectives together, there are currently more than thirty different models of the seven late-Pleistocene glacial cycles9. Here we present a statistical test of the orbital forcing hypothesis, focusing on the rapid deglaciation events known as terminations10,11. According to our analysis, the null hypothesis that glacial terminations are independent of obliquity can be rejected at the 5% significance level, whereas the corresponding null hypotheses for eccentricity and precession cannot be rejected. The simplest inference consistent with the test results is that the ice sheets terminated every second or third obliquity cycle at times of high obliquity, similar to the original proposal by Milankovitch12. We also present simple stochastic and deterministic models that describe the timing of the late-Pleistocene glacial terminations purely in terms of obliquity forcing.
  7. Tziperman, Eli, Carl Wunsch. “Consequences of pacing the Pleistocene 100 kyr ice ages by nonlinear phase locking to Milankovitch forcing.” Paleoceanography 21.4 (2006).:    The consequences of the hypothesis that Milankovitch forcing affects the phase (e.g., termination times) of the 100 kyr glacial cycles via a mechanism known as “nonlinear phase locking” are examined. Phase locking provides a mechanism by which Milankovitch forcing can act as the “pacemaker” of the glacial cycles. Nonlinear phase locking can determine the timing of the major deglaciations, nearly independently of the specific mechanism or model that is responsible for these cycles as long as this mechanism is suitably nonlinear. A consequence of this is that the fit of a certain model output to the observed ice volume record cannot be used as an indication that the glacial mechanism in this model is necessarily correct. Phase locking to obliquity and possibly precession variations is distinct from mechanisms relying on a linear or nonlinear amplification of the eccentricity forcing. Nonlinear phase locking may determine the phase of the glacial cycles even in the presence of noise in the climate system and can be effective at setting glacial termination times even when the precession and obliquity bands account only for a small portion of the total power of an ice volume record. Nonlinear phase locking can also result in the observed “quantization” of the glacial period into multiples of the obliquity or precession periods.
  8. Eisenman, Ian, Norbert Untersteiner, and J. S. Wettlaufer. “On the reliability of simulated Arctic sea ice in global climate models.” Geophysical Research Letters 34.10 (2007).  While most of the global climate models (GCMs) currently being evaluated for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report simulate present‐day Arctic sea ice in reasonably good agreement with observations, the intermodel differences in simulated Arctic cloud cover are large and produce significant differences in downwelling longwave radiation. Using the standard thermodynamic models of sea ice, we find that the GCM‐generated spread in longwave radiation produces equilibrium ice thicknesses that range from 1 to more than 10 meters. However, equilibrium ice thickness is an extremely sensitive function of the ice albedo, allowing errors in simulated cloud cover to be compensated by tuning of the ice albedo. This analysis suggests that the results of current GCMs cannot be relied upon at face value for credible predictions of future Arctic sea ice.
  9. Frank, Patrick, and John McCarthy. “A climate of belief.” Skeptic 14.1 (2008): 22-30. The claim that anthropogenic CO2 is responsible for the current warming of Earth climate is scientifically insupportable because climate models are unreliable by Patrick Frank “He who refuses to do arithmetic is doomed to talk nonsense.” — John McCarthy “The latest scientific data confirm that the earth’s climate is rapidly changing. … The cause? A thickening layer of carbon dioxide pollution, mostly from power plants and automobiles, that traps heat in the atmosphere. … *A+verage U.S. temperatures could rise another 3 to 9 degrees by the end of the century … Sea levels will rise, *and h+eat waves will be more frequent and more intense. Droughts and wildfires will occur more often. Disease-carrying mosquitoes will expand their range. And species will be pushed to extinction.” So says the National Resources Defense Council,2 with agreement by the Sierra Club,3 Greenpeace,4 National Geographic,5 the US National Academy of Sciences,6 and the US Congressional House leadership.7 Concurrent views are widespread,8 as a visit to the internet or any good bookstore will verify. Since at least the 1995 Second Assessment Report, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been making increasingly assured statements that human-produced carbon dioxide (CO2) is influencing the climate, and is the chief cause of the global warming trend in evidence since about 1900. The current level of atmospheric CO2 is about 390 parts per million by volume (ppmv), or 0.039% by volume of the atmosphere, and in 1900 was about 295 ppmv. If the 20th century trend continues unabated, by about 2050 atmospheric CO2 will have doubled to about 600 ppmv. This is the basis for the usual “doubled CO2” scenario. Doubled CO2 is a bench-mark for climate scientists in evaluating greenhouse warming. Earth receives about 342 watts per square meter (W/m2 ) of incoming solar energy, and all of this energy eventually finds its way back out into space. However, CO2 and other greenhouse gasses, most notably water vapor, absorb some of the outgoing energy and warm the atmosphere. This is the greenhouse effect. Without it Earth’s average surface temperature would be a frigid -19°C (-2.2 F). With it, the surface warms to about +14°C (57 F) overall, making Earth habitable.9 With more CO2, more outgoing radiant energy is absorbed, changing the thermal dynamics of
    the atmosphere. All the extra greenhouse gasses that have entered the atmosphere since 1900, including CO2, equate to an extra 2.7 W/m2 of energy absorption by the atmosphere.10 This is the worrisome greenhouse effect. On February 2, 2007, the IPCC released the Working Group I (WGI) “Summary for Policymakers” (SPM) report on Earth climate,11 which is an executive summary of the science supporting the predictions quoted above. The full “Fourth Assessment Report” (4AR) came out in sections during 2007.  [LINK TO FULL TEXT PDF]
  10. Huybers, Peter John. “Pleistocene glacial variability as a chaotic response to obliquity forcing.” (2009).  The mid-Pleistocene Transition from 40 ky to ~100 ky glacial cycles is generally characterized as a singular transition attributable to scouring of continental regolith or a long-term decrease in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Here an alternative hypothesis is suggested, that Pleistocene glacial variability is chaotic and that transitions from 40 ky to ~100 ky modes of variability occur spontaneously. This alternate view is consistent with the presence of ~80 ky glacial cycles during the early Pleistocene and the lack of evidence for a change in climate forcing during the mid-Pleistocene. A simple model illustrates this chaotic scenario. When forced at a 40 ky period the model chaotically transitions between small 40 ky glacial cycles and larger 80 and 120 ky cycles which, on average, give the ~100 ky variability.
  11. Dima, Mihai, and Gerrit Lohmann. “Conceptual model for millennial climate variability: a possible combined solar-thermohaline circulation origin for the~ 1,500-year cycle.” Climate Dynamics 32.2-3 (2009): 301-311.  Dansgaard-Oeschger and Heinrich events are the most pronounced climatic changes over the last 120,000 years. Although many of their properties were derived from climate reconstructions, the associated physical mechanisms are not yet fully understood. These events are paced by a ~1,500-year periodicity whose origin remains unclear. In a conceptual model approach, we show that this millennial variability can originate from rectification of an external (solar) forcing, and suggest that the thermohaline circulation, through a threshold response, could be the rectifier. We argue that internal threshold response of the thermohaline circulation (THC) to solar forcing is more likely to produce the observed DO cycles than amplification of weak direct ~1,500-year forcing of unknown origin, by THC. One consequence of our concept is that the millennial variability is viewed as a derived mode without physical processes on its characteristic time scale. Rather, the mode results from the linear representation in the Fourier space of nonlinearly transformed fundamental modes.
  12. Dijkstra, Henk ANonlinear climate dynamics. Cambridge University Press, 2013.  WUNSCH

EARLY HOLOCENE SEA LEVEL RISE & 8.2K EVENT

  1. Hori, KazuakiHori, Kazuaki, and Yoshiki Saito. “An early Holocene sea‐level jump and delta initiation.” Geophysical Research Letters 34.18 (2007).  Early Holocene sea‐level change controlled the evolution of classic coastal depositional systems. Radiocarbon‐dated borehole cores obtained from three incised‐valley‐fill systems in Asia (Changjiang, Song Hong, and Kiso River) record very similar depositional histories, especially between about 9000 and 8500 cal BP. Sedimentary facies changes from estuarine sand and mud to shelf or prodelta mud suggest that the marine influence in the incised valleys increased during this period. In addition, large decreases in sediment accumulation rates occurred. A sea‐level jump causes an estuarine system and its depocenter to move rapidly landward. It is possible that the final collapse of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, accompanied by catastrophic drainage of glacial lakes, at approximately 8500 cal BP caused such a jump. The jump was followed immediately by a period of decelerated sea‐level rise that promoted delta initiation.
  2. Vink, AnnemiekVink, Annemiek, et al. “Holocene relative sea-level change, isostatic subsidence and the radial viscosity structure of the mantle of northwest Europe (Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, southern North Sea).” Quaternary Science Reviews26.25-28 (2007): 3249-3275.  A comprehensive observational database of Holocene relative sea-level (RSL) index points from northwest Europe (Belgium, the Netherlands, northwest Germany, southern North Sea) has been compiled in order to compare and reassess the data collected from the different countries/regions and by different workers on a common time–depth scale. RSL rise varies in magnitude and form between these regions, revealing a complex pattern of differential crustal movement which cannot be solely attributed to tectonic activity. It clearly contains a non-linear, glacio- and/or hydro-isostatic subsidence component, which is only small on the Belgian coastal plain but increases significantly to a value of ca 7.5 m relative to Belgium since 8 cal. ka BP along the northwest German coast. The subsidence is at least in part related to the Post-Glacial collapse of the so-called peripheral forebulge which developed around the Fennoscandian centre of ice loading during the Last Glacial Maximum. The RSL data have been compared to geodynamic Earth models in order to infer the radial viscosity structure of the Earth’s mantle underneath NW Europe (lithosphere thickness, upper- and lower-mantle viscosity), and conversely to predict RSL in regions where we have only few observational data (e.g. in the southern North Sea). A very broad range of Earth parameters fit the Belgian RSL data, suggesting that glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) only had a minor effect on Belgian crustal dynamics during and after the Last Ice Age. In contrast, a narrow range of Earth parameters define the southern North Sea region, reflecting the greater influence of GIA on these deeper/older samples. Modelled RSL data suggest that the zone of maximum forebulge subsidence runs in a relatively narrow, WNW–ESE trending band connecting the German federal state of Lower Saxony with the Dogger Bank area in the southern North Sea. Identification of the effects of local-scale factors such as past changes in tidal range or tectonic activity on the spatial and temporal variations of sea-level index points based on model-data comparisons is possible but is still complicated by the relatively large range of Earth model parameters fitting each RSL curve, emphasizing the need for more high-quality observational data.
  3. Kendall, Roblyn A., et al. “The sea-level fingerprint of the 8.2 ka climate event.” Geology 36.5 (2008): 423-426.  The 8.2 ka cooling event was an abrupt, widespread climate instability. There is general consensus that the episode was likely initiated by a catastrophic outflow of proglacial Lakes Agassiz and Ojibway through the Hudson Strait, with subsequent disruption of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. However, the total discharge and flux during the 8.2 ka event remain uncertain. We compute the sea-level signature, or “fingerprint,” associated with the drainage of Lakes Agassiz and Ojibway, as well as the expected sea-level signal over the same time period due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) in response to the Late Pleistocene deglaciation. Our analysis demonstrates that sites relatively close to the lakes, including the West and Gulf Coasts of the United States, have small signals due to the lake release and potentially large GIA signals, and thus they may not be optimal field sites for constraining the outflow volume. Other sites, such as the east coast of South America and western Africa, have significantly larger signals associated with the lake release and are thus better choices in this regard.
  4. Hijma, Marc Phijma-mark., and Kim M. Cohen. “Timing and magnitude of the sea-level jump preluding the 8200 yr event.” Geology 38.3 (2010): 275-278.  Evidence from terrestrial, glacial, and global climate model reconstructions suggests that a sea-level jump caused by meltwater release was associated with the triggering of the 8.2 ka cooling event. However, there has been no direct measurement of this jump using precise sea-level data. In addition, the chronology of the meltwater pulse is based on marine data with limited dating accuracy. The most plausible mechanism for triggering the cooling event is the sudden, possibly multistaged drainage of the Laurentide proglacial Lakes Agassiz and Ojibway through the Hudson Strait into the North Atlantic ca. 8470 ± 300 yr ago. Here we show with detailed sea-level data from Rotterdam, Netherlands, that the sea-level rise commenced 8450 ± 44 yr ago. Our timing considerably narrows the existing age of this drainage event and provides support for the hypothesis of a double-staged lake drainage. The jump in sea level reached a local magnitude of 2.11 ± 0.89 m within 200 yr, in addition to the ongoing background relative sea-level rise (1.95 ± 0.74 m). This magnitude, observed at considerable distance from the release site, points to a global-averaged eustatic sea-level jump that is double the size of previous estimates (3.0 ± 1.2 m versus 0.4–1.4 m). The discrepancy suggests either a coeval Antarctic contribution or, more likely, a previous underestimate of the total American lake drainage.
  5. Bard, Edouardeduard, Bruno Hamelin, and Doriane Delanghe-Sabatier. “Deglacial meltwater pulse 1B and Younger Dryas sea levels revisited with boreholes at Tahiti.” Science327.5970 (2010): 1235-1237.  Reconstructing sea-level changes during the last deglaciation provides a way of understanding the ice dynamics that can perturb large continental ice sheets. The resolution of the few sea-level records covering the critical time interval between 14,000 and 9,000 YBP calendar years before the present is still insufficient to draw conclusions about sea-level changes associated with the Younger Dryas cold event and the meltwater pulse 1B (MWP-1B). We used the uranium-thorium method to date shallow-living corals from three new cores drilled onshore in the Tahiti barrier reef. No significant discontinuity can be detected in the sea-level rise during the MWP-1B period. The new Tahiti sea-level record shows that the sea-level rise slowed down during the Younger Dryas before accelerating again during the Holocene.
  6. Smith, D. E., et al. “The early Holocene sea level rise.” Quaternary Science Reviews 30.15-16 (2011): 1846-1860.  The causes, anatomy and consequences of the early Holocene sea level rise (EHSLR) are reviewed. The rise, of ca 60m, took place over most of the Earth as the volume of the oceans increased during deglaciation and is dated at 11,650–7000 cal. BP. The EHSLR was largely driven by meltwater release from decaying ice masses and the break up of coastal ice streams. The patterns of ice sheet decay and the evidence for meltwater pulses are reviewed, and it is argued that the EHSLR was a factor in the ca 8470 BP flood from Lake Agassiz-Ojibway. Patterns of relative sea level changes are examined and it is argued that in addition to regional variations, temporal changes are indicated. The impact of the EHSLR on climate is reviewed and it is maintained that the event was a factor in the 8200 BP cooling event, as well as in changes in ocean current patterns and their resultant effects. The EHSLR may also have enhanced volcanic activity, but no clear evidence of a causal link with submarine sliding on continental slopes and shelves can yet be demonstrated. The rise probably influenced rates and patterns of human migrations and cultural changes. It is concluded that the EHSLR was a major event of global significance, knowledge of which is relevant to an understanding of the impacts of global climate change in the future. Highlights:  1. Reviews the early Holocene sea level rise of 11650–7000 cal. BP. 2. Argues that the rise was involved in the discharge of Lake Agassiz-Ojibway and the 8200-year cooling event. 3. Shows that he rise influenced climate by increasing sea areas, in turn affecting human migration. 4. Suggests that the rise increased volcanic activity, but that its effects on submarine sliding are uncertain. 5. Argues that study of the rise helps throw light on the effects of future sea level changes in a global warming world.
  7. Hijma, Marchijma-mark P., and Kim M. Cohen. “Holocene transgression of the Rhine river mouth area, The Netherlands/Southern North Sea: palaeogeography and sequence stratigraphy.” Sedimentology 58.6 (2011): 1453-1485.  This study presents a detailed reconstruction of the palaeogeography of the Rhine valley (western Netherlands) during the Holocene transgression with systems tracts placed in a precise sea‐level context. This approach permits comparison of actual versus conceptual boundaries of the lowstand, transgressive and highstand systems tracts. The inland position of the highstand Rhine river mouth on a wide, low‐gradient continental shelf meant that base‐level changes were the dominant control on sedimentation for a relatively short period of the last glacial cycle. Systems in such inland positions predominantly record changes in the balance between river discharge and sediment load, and preserve excellent records of climatic changes or other catchment‐induced forcing. It is shown here that the transgressive systems tract‐part of the coastal prism formed in three stages: (i) the millennium before 8·45 ka bp, when the area was dominated by fluvial environments with extensive wetlands; (ii) the millennium after 8·45 ka, characterized by strong erosion, increasing tidal amplitudes and bay‐head delta development; and (iii) the period between 7·5 and 6·3 ka bp when the Rhine avulsed multiple times and the maximum flooding surface formed. The diachroneity of the transgressive surface is strongly suppressed because of a pulse of accelerated sea‐level rise at 8·45 ka bp. That event not only had a strong effect on preservation, but has circum‐oceanic stratigraphical relevance as it divides the early and middle Holocene parts of coastal successions worldwide. The palaeogeographical reconstruction offers a unique full spatial–temporal view on the coastal and fluvial dynamics of a major river mouth under brief rapid forced transgression. This reconstruction is of relevance for Holocene and ancient transgressive systems worldwide, and for next‐century natural coasts that are predicted to experience a 1 m sea‐level rise.
  8. Hijma, Marchijma-mark P., et al. “Pleistocene Rhine–Thames landscapes: geological background for hominin occupation of the southern North Sea region.” Journal of Quaternary Science 27.1 (2012): 17-39.  This paper links research questions in Quaternary geology with those in Palaeolithic archaeology. A detailed geological reconstruction of The Netherlands’ south‐west offshore area provides a stratigraphical context for archaeological and palaeontological finds. Progressive environmental developments have left a strong imprint on the area’s Palaeolithic record. We highlight aspects of landscape evolution and related taphonomical changes, visualized in maps for critical periods of the Pleistocene in the wider southern North Sea region. The Middle Pleistocene record is divided into two palaeogeographical stages: the pre‐Anglian/Elsterian stage, during which a wide land bridge existed between England and Belgium even during marine highstands; and the Anglian/Elsterian to Saalian interglacial, with a narrower land bridge, lowered by proglacial erosion but not yet fully eroded. The Late Pleistocene landscape was very different, with the land bridge fully dissected by an axial Rhine–Thames valley, eroded deep enough to fully connect the English Channel and the North Sea during periods of highstand. This tripartite staging implies great differences in (i) possible migration routes of herds of herbivores as well as hominins preying upon them, (ii) the erosion base of axial and tributary rivers causing an increase in the availability of flint raw materials and (iii) conditions for loess accumulation in northern France and Belgium and the resulting preservation of Middle Palaeolithic sites.
  9. Törnqvist, TorbjörnTörnqvist, Torbjörn E., and Marc P. Hijma. “Links between early Holocene ice-sheet decay, sea-level rise and abrupt climate change.” Nature Geoscience 5.9 (2012): 601.  The beginning of the current interglacial period, the Holocene epoch, was a critical part of the transition from glacial to interglacial climate conditions. This period, between about 12,000 and 7,000 years ago, was marked by the continued retreat of the ice sheets that had expanded through polar and temperate regions during the preceding glacial. This meltdown led to a dramatic rise in sea level, punctuated by short-lived jumps associated with catastrophic ice-sheet collapses. Tracking down which ice sheet produced specific sea-level jumps has been challenging, but two events between 8,500 and 8,200 years ago have been linked to the final drainage of glacial Lake Agassiz in north-central North America. The release of the water from this ice-dammed lake into the ocean is recorded by sea-level jumps in the Mississippi and Rhine-Meuse deltas of approximately 0.4 and 2.1 metres, respectively. These sea-level jumps can be related to an abrupt cooling in the Northern Hemisphere known as the 8.2 kyr event, and it has been suggested that the freshwater release from Lake Agassiz into the North Atlantic was sufficient to perturb the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. As sea-level rise on the order of decimetres to metres can now be detected with confidence and linked to climate records, it is becoming apparent that abrupt climate change during the early Holocene associated with perturbations in North Atlantic circulation required sustained freshwater release into the ocean.
  10. Sturt, FraserSturt, Fraser, Duncan Garrow, and Sarah Bradley. “New models of North West European Holocene palaeogeography and inundation.” Journal of Archaeological Science 40.11 (2013): 3963-3976. Highlights: New Palaeogeographic models of North West Europe from 11,000 BP to present day at 500 year intervals. Calculated rates for Holocene inundation across North West Europe. High rates of change do not necessarily mean catastrophic impacts. Understanding rates of change and their social implications requires a multi-scalar, multidisciplinary approach to the past.Abstract: This paper presents new 500 year interval palaeogeographic models for Britain, Ireland and the North West French coast from 11000 cal. BP to present. These models are used to calculate the varying rates of inundation for different geographical zones over the study period. This allows for consideration of the differential impact that Holocene sea-level rise had across space and time, and on past societies. In turn, consideration of the limitations of the models helps to foreground profitable areas for future research.
Asia's Factories May Be Over Worst as China Demand Picks Up - Bloomberg


QUESTION:

If everyone but China did as much as they possibly could to combat climate change, how bad would things be?

ANSWER:

If everyone but China takes climate action to get rid of fossil fuels it would recreate THE COLONIALISM WORLD OF THE PAST but with China and not the Europeans in charge because it will move all industrial activity to China along with wealth and power.

IT WILL NOT CHANGE THE RATE OF WARMING BECAUSE THE EMISSIONS OF THE REST OF THE WORLD WILL NOT VANISH BUT SIMPLY MOVE TO CHINA JUST AS IT HAS BEEN DOING FOR DECADES.

LINKS TO RELATED POSTS:

A CLIMATE ACTION CATCH 22: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/05/22/climate-catch22/

guterres

THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/01/08/the-industrial-revolution/

Industrial Revolution | Jasper Liang

A SMALL SAMPLE (3%) OF THE LONG AND GROWING LIST OF WESTERN BUSINESSES THAT OPERATE THEIR FACTORIES IN CHINA

Abercrombe & Fitch, Abbott Laboratories, Acer Electronics, Adidas, AGI- American Gem Institute, Agrilink Foods, Inc., Allergan Laboratories, American Eagle Outfitters, American Standard, American Tourister, Ames Tools, Amphenol Corporation, Amway Corporation, Analog Devices, Inc., Apple Computer, Armani, Armour Meats, Ashland Chemical, Ashley Furniture, Audi Motors, AudioVox, AutoZone, Inc., Avon, Banana Republic, Bausch & Lomb, Inc., Baxter International, Bed, Bath & Beyond, Belkin Electronics, Best Foods, Big 5 Sporting Goods, Black & Decker, Body Shop, Borden Foods, Briggs & Stratton, Calrad Electric, Campbell ‘s Soup, Canon Electronics, Carole Cable, Casio Instrument, Caterpillar, Inc., CBC America, CCTV Outlet, Checker Auto, Cisco Systems, Chiquita Brands International, Claire’s Boutique, Cobra Electronics, Coby Electronics, Coca Cola Foods, Colgate-Palmolive, Colorado Spectrum, ConAgra Foods, Cooper Tire, Corning, Inc., Coleman Sporting Goods, Compaq, Crabtree & Evelyn, Cracker Barrel Stores, Craftsman Tools, Cummins, Inc., Dannon Foods, Dell Computer, Del Monte Foods, Dewalt Tools, Dial Corporation, Diebold, Inc., Dillard’s, Inc., Dodge-Phelps, Dole Foods, Dow-Corning, Eastman Kodak, EchoStar, Eclipse CCTV, Edge Electronics Group, Electric Vehicles USA, Inc., Eli Lilly Company, Emerson Electric, Enfamil, Estee Lauder, Eveready, Fisher Scientific, Ford Motors, Frito Lay, Furniture Brands International, Gateway Computer, GE General Electric, General Foods International, General Mills, General Motors, Gentek, Gerber Foods, Gillette Company, Goodrich Company, Goodyear Tire, Gucci, Haagen-Dazs, Harley Davidson, Hasbro Company, Heinz Foods, Hershey Foods, Hitachi, Hoffman-LaRoche, Holt’s Automotive Products, Hormel Foods, Home Depot, Honda Motor, Hoover Vacuum, HP Computer, Honda, Honeywell, Hubbell Inc., Huggies, Hunts-Wesson Foods, ICON Office Solutions, IBM, Ikea, Intel Corporation, J.M. Smucker Company, John Deere, Johnson Control, Johnson & Johnson, Johnstone Supply, JVC Electronics, KB Home, Keebler Foods, Kenwood Audio, Kimberly Clark, Knorr Foods, Kohler, Kohl’s Corporation, Kraft Foods, Kragen Auto, Land’s End, Lee Kum Kee Foods, Lexmark, LG Electronics, Lipton Foods, L.L. Bean, Inc., Logitech, Libby’s Foods, Linen & Things, Lipo Chemicals, Inc., Lowe’s Hardware, Lucent Technologies, Lufkin, Mars Candy, Martha Stewart Products, Mattel, McCormick Foods, McKesson Corporation, Megellan GPS, Memorex, Merck & Company, Mitsubishi Electronics, Mitsubishi Motors, Mobile Oil, Molex, Motorola, Motts Applesauce, Multifoods Corporation, Nabisco Foods, National Semiconductor, Nescafe, Nestles Foods, Nextar, Nike, Nikon, Nivea Cosmetics, Nokia Electronics, Northrop Grumman Corporation, NuSkin International, Nvidia Corporation, Office Depot, Olin Corporation, Old Navy, Olympus Electronics, Orion-Knight Electronics, Pacific Sunwear, Inc., Pamper’s, Panasonic, Pan Pacific Electronics, Panvise, Papa Johns, Payless Shoesource, Pelco, Pentax Optics, Pep Boy’s, Pepsico International, Petco, Pfizer, Inc., Philips Electronics, Phillip Morris Companies, Pierre Cardin, Pillsbury Company, Pioneer Electronics, Pitney Bowes, Inc., Plantronics, PlaySchool Toys, Polaris Industries, Polaroid, Post Cereals, Pfister, Pringles, Praxair, Proctor & Gamble, PSS World Medical, Pyle Audio, Qualcomm, Quest One, Ralph Loren, RCA, Reebok International, Reynolds Aluminum, Revlon, Rohm & Hass Company, Samsonite, Samsung, Sanyo, Shell Oil, Schwinn Bike, Sears-Craftsman, Sharp Electronics, Sherwin-Williams, Shure Electronics, Sony, Speco Technologies, Skechers Footwear, SmartHome, Smucker’s, Solar Power, Inc., Stanley Tools, Staple’s, Steelcase, Inc., STP Oil, Sunkist Growers, SunMaid Raisins, Sunkist, Switchcraft Electronics, SYSCO Foods, Sylvania Electric, 3-M, Tamron Optics, TDK, Tektronix, Inc, Texas Instruments, Timex, Timken Bearing, Tommy Hilfiger, Toro, Toshiba, Tower Automotive, Toyota, Toy’s R Us, Inc., Tripp-lite, Tupper Ware, Tyson Foods, Uniden Electronics, Valspar Corporation, Victoria ‘s Secret, Vizio Electronics, Volkswagen, VTech, WD-40 Corporation, Weller Electric Company, Western Digital, Westinghouse Electric, Weyerhaeuser Company, Whirlpool, Wilson Sporting Goods, Wrigley, WW Grainger, Inc., Wyeth Laboratories, X-10, Xelite, Xerox, Yamaha, Yoplait Foods, Yum Brands, Zale Corporation.

Here are 4 big pollution problems EPA has (mostly) fixed already | Grist

AND THEN THERE CAME A SECOND QUESTION

QUESTION:

WOULD THE DISCOVERY OF A CHEAP, CLEAN, AND ENDLESS SOURCE OF ENERGY GIVE US A PARADISE?

ANSWER:

THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT FOSSIL FUELS HAVE DONE FOR US. THIS ENERGY SOURCE DID SUFFER FROM SERIOUS ENIVORNMMENTAL PROBLEMS AND THESE ISSUES LED TO ANTI FOSSIL FUEL ACTIVISM AND THEREBY TO THE FORMATION OF THE EPA AND THE RESOLUTION OF THOSE ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES. BUT SO STRONG AND EMOTIONAL WAS OUR ANTI FOSSIL FUEL ACTIVISM THAT IT HAS PERSISTED AND IN RESPONSE THE THE WORK OF THE EPA THAT RESOLVED THE ORIGINAL POLLUTION ISSUES, THE MOVEMENT HAS COME UP WITH INNOVATIVE NEW REASONS TO CONTINUE THEIR OPPOSITION TO FOSSIL FUELS CLIMATE CHANGE WITH CONSEQUENCES SO HORRIFIC WE REALLY DO HAVE TO GIVE UP FOSSIL FUELS THIS TIME AROUND.

Our Mission and What We Do | About EPA | US EPA

RELATED POST ON THE HISTORY OF ANTI FOSSIL FUEL ACTIVISM:

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/03/23/anti-fossil-fuel-activism-disguised-as-climate-science/

EXCERPT:

The real movement is climate action, not climate change: The commonly held belief is that the issue in AGW climate change is climate and that therefore, the debate is about the details and the science of Anthropogenic Global Warming and climate change and about its fearful projections and impacts  formulated in terms of how dangerously warm it would get without the prescribed climate action. Here I present the case against this assumption and propose that the climate affair of our time is best understood not in terms of climate change but in terms of climate action. 

Climate Action is the underlying movement for which climate change serves only as the rationale and the motivation. Climate action is an expression of anti fossil fuel activism.  Anti fossil fuel activism is best understood in terms of the 1960s and 1970s anti smog, anti pollution, and anti oil spill movement that had won the pollution war and had assumed that they had won the war against fossil fuels  {the blogger was in that movement protesting in Berkeley, CA}. Thereafter, beginning in the late 1970s, the roots of a vibrant energy revolution were nurtured with great enthusiasm and great expectations. Renewable energy innovations held out the promise of the end of fossil fuels and the pollution they cause simply by the availability of a better product in the market for energy. 

An energy movement to renewable sources of “natural energy” such as wind, solar, hydro, tidal, and geothermal took hold and grew rapidly with forecasts of a renewable energy revolution and the end of fossil fuels. The hills along the highway from Berkeley to Sacramento California became dotted with wind turbines and in Northern Sonoma County, California a geothermal power plant began supplying electricity to the grid. At the same time, the so called “peak oil” and “end oil” forecasts of the coming depletion of fossil fuel resources began to appear in the news simultaneously with the Club of Rome report of the imminent depletion of the essential resources that sustain the industrial economy. These forecasts, along with energy crises of the OPEC oil embargo of 1973 and the uprising against the Shah of Iran in 1979, had created a crisis in the fossil fuel industry that was perceived as a weakness in Big Oil. This condition of the once vibrant energy sector led to forecasts of its eventual demise, and the search was on for alternatives to fossil fuels.

The pollution and oil spill issues and the energy crises of the 1970s created a feeling among consumers, energy analysts, and energy activists alike that fossil fuels were on the way out. It was thought to be axiomatic, particularly so among the anti pollution & anti fossil fuel activists, that the clean energy alternatives that were then being developed and implemented would be our energy future. It seemed certain then that the days of our fossil fueled economy were numbered and that a new age of renewable energy was dawning .

It was in this context of an exciting anticipation of an energy technology revolution that would end the age of fossil fuels, that the climate change issue was inserted into the energy dialog.

Students Worldwide Skip School to Protest Global Warming | Voice of America  - English

AND THEN THERE CAME A THIRD QUESTION

QUESTION;

HOW DOES CLIMATE CHANGE OCCUR?

ANSWER:

  1. WE BURN FOSSIL FUELS MADE WITH CARBON THAT IS MILLIONS OF YEARS OLD AND NOT PART OF THE CURRENT ACCOUNT OF THE CARBON CYCLE.
  2. HALF THE CARBON DIOXIDE PUT INTO THE ATMOSPHERE THIS WAY STAYS IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND CAUSES ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION TO RISE.
  3. THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION CAUSES THE GLOBAL MEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE TO BE HIGHER THAN IT WOULD BE OTHERWISE.
  4. AND SO THE MORE FOSSIL FUELS WE BURN THE HIGHER THE ATMOSPHERIC CO2 AND THE HIGHER THE GMST.
  5. THIS SEQUENCE OF HIGHER AND HIGHER GMST IS UNDERSTOOD AS GLOBAL WARMING AND BECAUSE IT IS HUMAN CAUSED WE CALL IT ANHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING OR AGW.
  6. AS GMST RISES, WEATHER PATTERNS BEGIN TO CHANGE AND LONGER TERM BEHAVIOR OF REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGES TO AN UNNATURAL ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE STATES THAT COULD HAVE DISASTROUS CONSEQUENCES FOR LIFE ON EARTH.
  7. THESE FORECASTS OF DISASTER MEAN THAT WE MUST STOP BURNING FOSSIL FUELS TO STOP THESE DANGEROUS TRENDS
  8. THAT’S WHAT THEY SAY, ANYWAY. MY PERSONAL VIEW IS THAT IT IS A CONTINUATION OF THE ANTI FOSSIL FUEL ACTIVISM OF THE 1970S AND 1980S BECAUSE SOME POEPLE JUST DON’T LIKE FOSSIL FUELS.

LINK TO DOCUMENT ON ANTI FOSSIL FUEL ACTIVISM: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/03/23/anti-fossil-fuel-activism-disguised-as-climate-science/

Solar Cycle 25 Shows Signs of Life: "New Best Fit" Released - Electroverse
Multiple Cold Records Toppled in British Columbia - Grand Solar Minimum -  Electroverse | Solar activity, Physics department, British columbia
Solar Activity just reached a new Space Age Low - Electroverse

THIS POST IS A PRESENTATION OF RELATED POSTS ON THIS SITE THAT PROVIDE CRITICAL EVALUATIONS OF THE CASE AGAINST THE CATASTROPHIC PREDICTIONS OF HUMAN CAUSED GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN TERMS OF COUNTER PREDICTIONS THAT THE WARMING IS OVER AND THAT WE ARE “ENTERING A COOLING PHASE” BECAUSE THE EARTH’S LONG TERM SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS CYCLICAL AND DRIVEN BY THE SUNSPOT CYCLE WITH NO ROLE FOR ATMOSPHERIC CO2.

RELATED POST#1: 2019 ENTERING A COOLING PHASE: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/07/23/cooling/

UAH global mean lower troposphere temperature anomalies 1979-2019 and their decadal trends are studied for signs that what has been a warming trend has changed or is changing into a cooling trend. No such evidence is found in the data. The chart summarizing the findings is reproduced below. Details in the linked post above.

COUNTS

RELATED POST#2: GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM GLOBAL COOLING: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/06/16/a-grand-solar-minimum/

SUMMARY, AS IN THE SIMILAR STUDY OF 2019 [LINK] , WE FIND NO EVIDENCE IN UAH LOWER TROPOSPHERE DATA FOR GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE (LAND AND OCEAN), OR FOR LAND ONLY, THAT THE “COMING GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM” HAS IMPOSED A COOLING TREND OR IS IMPOSING A COOLING TREND IN GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURES. 

THE EVIDENCE FOR “THE COMING COOLING OF THE GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM” IS PRESENTED IN TERMS OF THE BRIEF AND LOCALIZED COOLING THAT CAN ONLY BE UNDERSTOOD AS INTERNAL CLIMATE VARIABIITY. NO RATIONALE IS PROVIDED FOR THE INTERPRETATION OF THESE BRIEF EVENTS IN TERMS OF AGW CLIMATE CHANGE OR THE GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM. BOTH OF THESE THEORIES RELATE TO LONG TERM TRENDS IN GLOBAL MEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE. 

THE SOLAR CYCLE CHART PROVIDED BY THE AUTHORS TO SUPPORT THEIR HYPOTHESIS IS REPRODUCED BELOW.

RELATED POST ON INTERNAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/07/16/the-internal-variability-issue/

RELATED POST #3: THE TIME SCALE OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE SOLAR CYCLE AND GLOBAL MEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE (GMST): LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/06/19/sunspots/

HERE WE NOTE AS FOLLOWS: THE SOLAR CYCLE AND THE “COMING COOLING” ARGUMENT AGAINST THE AGW CO2 DRIVEN GLOBAL WARMING HYPOTHESIS PROPOSE THAT THE OBSERVED WARMING IS DRIVEN BY THE SOLAR CYCLE AND THAT THIS THEORY WILL BE PROVEN CORRECT WHEN THE SOLAR MINIMUM ARRIVES AND THE WORLD COOLS AS IT HAD DONE IN THE MAUNDER MINIMUM LITTLE ICE AGE, AND THAT THE SOLAR CYCLE MINIMUM AND THEREFORE THE COOLING IS IMMINENT OR PERHAPS ALREADY UNDER WAY.

This solar cycle theory of temperature trends implies that surface temperature is responsive to the solar cycle. In the relared post linked above, we test this claimed relationship with correlation and regression analysis of the long run Central England Temperature series (CET: 1750-2018) against the corresponding sunspot data from SILSO. The calendar months are studied separately as it is found that the behavior of both time series (sunspots and CET) used in this work vary significantly among the calendar months. The claimed relationship between sunspots and temperaure are studied at 11-year and 22-year time scales in accordance with a claim by solar cycle theorists that the effect of the solar cycle on temperature is cumulative such that it is necessary to study this relationship at these longer time scales.

The 22-year time scale is supported by NASA in their explanation of the Maunder Minimum by author Drew Shindell: LINK: https://visibleearth.nasa.gov/images/7122/chilly-temperatures-during-the-maunder-minimum

THE BOTTOM LINE HERE IS THE CORRELATION BETWEEN SUNSPOT COUNT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE.

IN THE RELATED POST LINKED ABOVE WE FIND A STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT CORRELATION AT TIME SCALES OF 11 AND 22 YEARS BOTH IN THE SOURCE DATA AND IN THE DETRENDED SERIES AT THE FULL 270-YEAR TIME SPAN OF THE DATA. HOWEVER, AS THE TIME SPAN IS REDUCED FROM 270 YEARS THE CORRELATION WEAKENS UNTIL IT BECOMES STATISTICALLY INSIGNIFICANT AT A TIME SPANS OF LESS THAN 200 YEARS.

THE IMPLICATION OF THESE FINDINGS FOR “THE COMING SOLAR CYCLE COOLING” ENTHUSIASM AMONG CLIMATE CHANGE SKEPTICS IS THAT THE TIME SCALE OF THE DATA USED IN THE ANALYSIS IS NOT LONG ENOUGH FOR THE SOLAR CYCLE EFFECT. A POSSIBLE EXPLANATION FOR THE TIME SPAN EFFECT IS CHAOTIC BEHAVIOR OF THE TIME SERIES. IN ANOTHER RELATED POST WE SHOW THAT THE SOLAR CYCLE TIME SERIES CONTAINS A HURST PERSISTENCE THAT IMPOSES CHAOTIC BEHAVIOR IN THE DATA. LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/02/26/a-chaotic-solar-cycle/

SILSO-ANNUAL-GIF

What is the CO2 concentration by altitude and why? - Earth Science Stack  Exchange

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL EVALUATION OF THE PROPOSITION SEEN IN ONLINE CLIMATE CHANGE DISCUSSIONS THAT THE MOLECULAR WEIGHTS OF CO2, OXYGEN, AND NITROGEN ARE APPROXIMATELY 44, 16, AND 14 AND THAT THE RELATIVELY HIGH MOLECULAR WEIGHT AND MASS OF CO2 IMPLIES THAT CO2 IS TOO HEAVY TO BE A PART OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND THAT THEREFORE IT SHOULD JUST DROP TO THE GROUND; AND THAT THEREFORE THERE CAN BE NO WARMING EFFECT OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2.

RELATED WORK IN THE LITERATURE: SOURCE: Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 3861–3878, 2017 http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/17/3861/2017/ doi:10.5194/acp-17-3861-2017

Abstract. In this study, we construct a new monthly zonal mean carbon dioxide (CO2) distribution from the upper troposphere to the stratosphere over the 2000–2010 time period. This reconstructed CO2 product is based on a Lagrangian backward trajectory model driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis meteorology and tropospheric CO2 measurements. Comparisons of our CO2 product to extratropical in situ measurements from aircraft transects and balloon profiles show remarkably good agreement. The main features of the CO2 distribution include (1) relatively large mixing ratios in the tropical stratosphere; (2) seasonal variability in the extratropics, with relatively high mixing ratios in the summer and autumn hemisphere in the 15–20 km altitude layer; and (3) decreasing mixing ratios with increasing altitude from the upper troposphere to the middle stratosphere (∼35 km). These features are consistent with expected variability due to the transport of long-lived trace gases by the stratospheric Brewer–Dobson circulation. The method used here to construct this CO2 product is unique from other modelling efforts and should be useful for model and satellite validation in the upper troposphere and stratosphere as a prior for inversion modelling and to analyse features of stratosphere– troposphere exchange as well as the stratospheric circulation and its variability.

Atmospheric concentration of CO2 as a function of altitude | 667 per  centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy  policy

The increase in carbon dioxide in Earth's mid-troposphere from 2002 to 2013  – AIRS

IN THE ANALYSIS OF THE PROPOSAL THAT CO2 IS TOO HEAVY TO HAVE A HEAT TRAPPING ROLE IN THE ATMOSPHERE, WE FIND THAT THE HIGHER MOLECULAR WEIGHT AND MASS OF CARBON DIOXIDE IMPLIES ONLY A VERTICAL PATTERN IN ITS CONCENTRATION FROM THE SURFACE TO 3,000 METERS ABOVE GIVE OR TAKE WITH THE TREND HIGHER IN THE ATMOSPHERE AT UNDETECTABLE LEVELS. IT IS TRUE THAT THE MOLECULAR WEIGHT ISSUE HAS AN EFFECT ON CO2 DISTRIBUTION IN THE ATMOSPHERE BUT NO EVIDENCE IS FOUND THAT THIS EFFECT MAKES THE HEAT TRAPPING EFFECT OF CARBON DIOXIDE IRRELEVANT IN THE CLIMATE CHANGE CONTEXT.

THIS POST IS A COMMENTARY ON THE WORLD’S MOST VIEWED SITE ON GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE: LINK: http://wattsupwiththat.com . Though a frequent visitor to the world’s most viewed site on global warming and climate change, I did not learn until recently why it is called the ” the world’s most viewed site on global warming and climate change”.

One day while visiting the site I left a comment that contained a link to one of my posts that I thought was relevant to the ongoing conversation at the site.

The next few days I found that the linked document alone was getting more than twice the views per day as my whole blog normally gets.

And now we know why they call it the most viewed site on global warming and climate change.

June 11, 2001: George W. Bush's remarks on climate change Video - ABC News

PRESIDENT GEORGE W BUSH WAS WIDELY HELD AS A CLIMATE DENIER AND DURING HIS PRESIDENCY 2001 TO 2009, CLIMATE SCIENTISTS AND EVEN THE PENTAGON HAD RIDICULED HIM BY MAKING SOME ALARMING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT FORECASTS FOR THE YEAR 2020. THIS POST IS A PRESENTATION OF THESE FORECASTS.

FORECAST#1: BY THE YEAR 2020, EUROPEAN CITIES WILL BE SUBMERGED UNDER SEA LEVEL RISE.

Climate change IS to blame for rising sea levels – as risk of  'megatsunamis' grows

WHAT WE FIND IN 2021 IS THAT THE 2004 FORECAST DID NOT MATERIALIZE BUT THE FORECAST THAT EUROPE IS AT RISK OF BEING SUBMERGED UNDER SEA LEVEL RISE HAS PERSISTED UNCHANGED TO THIS DAY. THE PATTERN WHERE FAILED FORECASTS ARE SIMPLY SHIFTED FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE IS ENDEMIC IN CLIMATE SCIENCE.

FORECAST#2: BY THE YEAR 2020, GLOBAL PEACE AND ORDER WILL COLLAPSE TO CREATE A SITUATION THAT IS WORSE THAN TERRORISM.

The September 11th terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center | Pictures -  ABC7 New York

IN THOSE DAYS WITH THE USA STILL REELING FROM THE 9/11 TERRORISM ATTACKS, US POLICY FOCUS AND DISCUSSION WAS TERRORISM. PREDICTABLY, CLIMATE CHANGE ALARMISM OF THE TIME HAD THEREFORE ADOPTED THE TERRORISM TOPIC AND MADE SCARY FORECASTS OF HOW A WARMING WORLD WILL CREATE CLIMATE TERRORISTS AND THEREBY INCREASE THE FREQUENCY AND DESTRUCTIVENESS OF TERRORISM. IT WAS THOUGHT THAT THE TERRORISM FEAR OF CLIMATE CHANGE WILL SOFTEN THE CLIMATE DENIALISM OF GEORGE BUSH BUT IT DID NOT WORK OUT THAT WAY. OLD GEORGE WAS A DENIER TO THE END.

FORECAST#3: CLIMATE CHANGE WILL CREATE WARS AND NATURAL DISASTERS AND BY THE YEAR 2020, MILLIONS OF LIVES WILL BE LOST DUE TO WARS AND NATURAL DISASTERS.

Climate Wars: The Fight for Survival as the World Overheats: Dyer, Gwynne:  9781851688142: Amazon.com: Books

THERE HAVE BEEN OF COURSE MANY CLAIMS POST HOC THAT EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS AND WILDFIRES WERE CAUSED BY CLIMATE CHANGE BUT THE POST HOC ATTRIBUTION OF THESE EVENTS CONTAIN THREE FLAWS. FIRST, THESE HYPOTHESES ARE NOT TESTABLE BECAUSE A HYPOTHESIS DERIVED FROM THE DATA CANNOT BE TESTED WITH THE SAME DATA AND ALSO THE CLAIM AND EXPECTATION OF CLIMATE WARS HAS YET TO BEAR FRUIT. BUT SO FAR NO EVIDENCE HAS BEEN PRESENTED BY CLIMAE SCIENCE OR THE PENTAGON THAT MILLIONS OF LIVES HAVE BEEN LOST DUE TO THE EXTREME WEATHER IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE.

FORECAST#4: MEGA DROUGHTS AND FAMINE THAT WILL LEAD TO NUCLEAR WAR.

When Carl Sagan Warned the World About Nuclear Winter | Science |  Smithsonian Magazine

TO BE BRIEF, THIS ONE WAS A NO SHOW.

FORECAST#5: CLIMATE CHANGE WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD RIOTING AROUND THE WORLD

Environmental stress is already causing death – this chaos map shows where

THE ONLY RIOTING FOUND IN THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE THOSE CARRIED OUT BY CLIMATE CHANGE ACTIVISTS SUCH AS EXTINCTION REBELLION.

FORECAST#6: ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE WILL DESTROY CIVILIZATION AND CREATE ANARCHY.

Human Vulnerability to Climate Change

AS IN THE RIOTING EXAMPLE ABOVE, THE ONLY ANARCHY WE HAVE SEEN WAS CARRIED OUT BY CLIMATE CHANGE ACTIVISTS.

FORECAST #7: AS PEOPLE START RUNNING OUT OF FOOD, WATER, AND ENERGY THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD RIOTING AND WARFARE THAT WILL LEAD TO NUCLEAR CONFLICT.

War in the Middle East and climate change - netivist

NO EVENT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD CAN BE DESCRIBED AS RIOTING AND WARFARE CAUSED BY CLIMATE CHANGE.

FORECAST#8: HUMAN CIVILIZATION WILL BE GONE AND REPLACED WITH A STATE OF WARFARE. ESSENTIALLY, IT WAS POSTULATED THAT CLIMATE CHANGE WILL DESTROY HUMAN CIVILIZATION AND WE WILL HAVE TO START ALL OVER FROM OUR CAVEMAN DAYS.

Climate change apocalypse could start by 2050 if we do nothing

BRIEFLY, NOTHING LIKE THAT HAS HAPPENED. SADLY FOR THE PENTAGON AND THE CLIMATE SCIENTISTS THEY WORKED WITH, THEIR FORECASTS HAVE BEEN DISMAL FAILURES.

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION:

THE ODDITY HERE IS THAT THESE FAILURES HAVE NOT DISCOURAGED CLIMATE SCIENCE TO KEEP RE-DATING THEIR DOOM AND GLOOM TO KEEP MOVING THESE FORECASTS FURTHER AND FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE. AND SO HERE WE ARE AND THE EARTH IS STILL BEAUTIFUL. LIFE IS GOOD AND THE LIVING IS EASY BUT THE FUTURE CONTINUES TO BE GLOOM AND DOOM.

Top 50 Best Small Towns to Visit US | United States Vacation Destinations  and Guides : TravelChannel.com | Travel Channel

New Zealand Is Planting 1 Billion Trees to Fight Climate Change | Trees to  plant, Climate change, Climates

THIS POST IS A REVIEW OF THE ENVIRONMENTALISM PROPOSAL THAT PLANTING TREES IS CLIMATE ACTION

The connection between climate science and eco wacko climate activism

The connection here is the carbon cycle with specific reference to photosynthesis and the sequestration of carbon dioxide in soils. In this contextthe eco wackos claim that climate change is an environmentalism issue where human activity has interfered with nature’s ability to remove and sequester CO2. The environmentalism sin in this case is deforestation. It follows then that therefore the solution to climate change lies in the envornmentalism of humans backing off from their destruction of forests and planting more trees. That is, to fight climate change, humans must adopt a more eco friendly lifestyle that will allow the forests to recover that will in turn increase CO2 sequestration in the soil.

The Power of Trees | Climate Matters

This eco wacko science of climate change presents the climate action needed as a more eco wacko relationship between humans and forests in which humans can take climate action simply by curtailing deforestation and by planting trees. This view, that planting trees is the climate action needed derives from an eco wacko view of the global warming issue. Here we present the available data for trees and photosynthesis and show that this view of climate change and climate action is inconsistent with the data.

How Is Eco-Anxiety Tied To Climate Change? - Science World

THE DATA ARE AS FOLLOWS

  1. THERE ARE 8.7E9 HECTARES OF LAND ON EARTH WHERE TREES CAN BE GROWN.
  2. OF THAT, 5.5E9 HECTARES ALREADY HAVE TREES.
  3. THIS MEANS THAT THE MAXIMUM PHOTOSYNTHESIS IMPACT OF HUMANS PLANTING TREES IS (8.7-5.5)/8.7 OR LESS THAN 37%. OF TOTAL LAND PHOTOSYNTHESIS.
  4. HOWEVER, 50% TO 80% OF THE WORLD’S PHOTOSYNTHESIS IS IN THE OCEAN. TAKING THE MIDPOINT OF THIS RANGE WE CAN SAY THAT ON AVERAGE THE OCEAN PROVIDES 65% OF PHOTOSYNTHESIS AND LAND ONLY 35%.
  5. THEREFORE, THE MAXIMUM HUMAN IMPACT OF PLANTING TREES IS TO INCREASE PHOTOSYNTHESIS BY 37% OF 35% OR ABOUT 13% AT MOST.
  6. THIS MAXIMUM POSSIBLE IMPACT OF HUMANS PLANTING TREES IS WELL WITHIN THE UNCERTAINTY RANGE OF GLOBAL PHOTOSYNTHESIS ESTIMATIONS.
  7. THEREFORE NO MEASURABLE OR STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT PHOTOSYNTHESIS EFFECT IS POSSIBLE BY HUMANS PLANTING TREES.
  8. AS DESCRIBED IN A RELATED POST, THE CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUE IS SPECIFIC TO THE BURNING OF FOSSIL FUELS BY HUMANS SINCE THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION AND THE CLIMATE ACTION DEMANDED BY CLIMATE SCIENCE IS A CESSATION OF BURNING FOSSIL FUELS. LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/06/19/vegandiet/
Planet Releaf – Planting One Million Trees
Eco-Anxiety Is On The Rise. Here's What You Need To Know | HuffPost UK Life

Flirting with the 1.5°C Threshold | Climate Central

QUESTION: WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF GMST RISES MORE THAN 1.5C SINCE PRE INDUSTRIAL?

ANSWER

In 2018 climate scientists determined that if gmst (global mean surface temperature) is allowed to rise more than 1.5C since pre-industrial then natural feedbacks will take over from fossil fuel emissions as the primary drivers of warming such that climate change will no longer be in human hands and it can no longer be attenuated by cutting emissions. It will be a one way road to hell with no alternative.

However there are some un-answered questions in this scenario. For example, when was this critical pre industrial year? and what was the temperature then? The IPCC initially said that the pre industrial year was 1760 but in the next ipcc report they changed their mind and said it was 1850. The problem with these very old years for the pre industrial time when human caused global warming began is that it falls prior to what climate science calls the ETCW ANOMALY, Early Twentieth Century Warming. It is a reference to the inability of the theory of AGW to explain the warming from pre industrial to 1950. As a result of this contradiction, many climate scientists and NASA have determined that the relevant pre industrial year is 1950. The extreme uncertainty in the determination of the pre industrial year makes it difficult to understand the certainty and precision of the “1.5C since pre industrial” argument.

Defining a true 'pre-industrial' climate period - BBC News

What’s more, the critical amount of warming since pre industrial now stated as 1.5C is just one of 5 such numbers that climate science had proposed at different times. The other four values for the critical amount of warming since pre industrial that will activate natural feedbacks are 2C, 3C, 4C, and 5C. The mean and standard deviation of these assessments yield a p-value clost to 0.1 and therefore do not indicate that they contain useful information.

Therefore the real information contained in these estimates is that we don’t really know. Overlooking uncertainty to pick the scariest number is not unusual in environmentalism of course where the precautionary principle is invoked but the enormous cost of the climate action demanded requires better evidence than the precautionary principle.

Climate change isn't fair | Global Environment Facility

LINKS TO RELATED POSTS ON THIS SITE:

LINK#1: THE NULL HYPOTHESIS ISSUE IN CLIMATE SCIENCE: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/04/05/the-null-hypothesis-issue/

LINK#2: THE PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/12/27/superstitious-humans/

LINK#3: WHAT SCIENTISTS KNOW FOR SURE: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/12/25/earth-day-wisdom/

Finally the correct words to articulate our fatal population growth dilemma

WE ARE RUNNING OUT OF TIME SO WE CAN’T REALLY QUIBBLE ABOUT THE SCIENCE ALTHOUGH IT IS THE SCIENCE THAT GIVES US THE LEGITIMACY WE NEED TO DEMAND TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF CLIMATE ACTION.

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF THE OUTRAGE IN THE GLOBAL NORTH ABOUT AFRICA’S FAILURE TO TAKE CLIMATE ACTION AND THE RESPONSE BY AN AFRICAN IN THE YOUTUBE VIDEO BELOW.

THE ISSUE AS DESCRIBED BY THE UNDP ON THE THE CLIMATE ACTION LAGGARDS IN AFRICA AND THE GLOBAL SOUTH IN GENERAL. THE CONTRADICTION HERE IS THAT UNDP IS A DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE AGENCY OF THE UN THAT HAS NOW TURNED AGAINST DEVELOPMENT OF POOR COUNTRIES BY VIRTUE OF ITS CLIMATE AGENDA. THIS CONTRADICTION IN THE UNDP IS DETAILED IN A RELATED POST: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/03/06/sdg/

WHAT THE UNDP SAYS ON THIS ISSUE: There is no country that is not experiencing the drastic effects of climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions are more than 50 percent higher than in 1990. Global warming is causing long-lasting changes to our climate system, which threatens irreversible consequences if we do not act. The annual average economic losses from climate-related disasters are in the hundreds of billions of dollars. This is not to mention the human impact of geo-physical disasters, which are 91 percent climate-related, and which between 1998 and 2017 killed 1.3 million people, and left 4.4 billion injured. The goal aims to mobilize US$100 billion annually by 2020 to address the needs of developing countries to both adapt to climate change and invest in low-carbon development. Supporting vulnerable regions will directly contribute not only to Goal 13 but also to the other SDGs. These actions must also go hand in hand with efforts to integrate disaster risk measures, sustainable natural resource management, and human security into national development strategies. It is still possible, with strong political will, increased investment, and using existing technology, to limit the increase in global mean temperature to two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, aiming at 1.5°C, but this requires urgent and ambitious collective action.

WITH REFERENCE TO: “The goal aims to mobilize US$100 billion annually by 2020 to address the needs of developing countries to both adapt to climate change and invest in low-carbon development. Supporting vulnerable regions will directly contribute not only to Goal 13 but also to the other SDGs”, THIS IS AN IMAGINARY PROPOSAL THAT THE UN HAD ARBITRARILY INCLUDED IN ITS CLIMATE CHANGE AGENDA MORE THAN 20 YEARS AGO WITHOUT ANY SUPPORT FROM THE LISTED DONORS AND WITHOUT ANY SUCCESS IN EITHER COLLECTING OR DISTRIBUTING ANY OF THESE FUNDS.

WHAT THE AFRICAN REPRESENATIVE SAYS IN THE VIDEO BELOW:

Californians use more electricity playing video games than the total energy consumption of the entire country of Senegal. Only 3% of Nigernans have air conditioners. There is a mind blowing gap between the energy haves and the energy have nots. It is in this context that we must understand the conflict between the UNDP’s demand for African climate action and the reality on the ground in Africa.

THIS GAP BETWEEN THE GLOBAL NORTH AND THE GLOBAL SOUTH IS FURTHER EXPLORED IN THIS RELATED POST: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/01/08/the-industrial-revolution/ THERE WE NOTE AS FOLLOWS:

The climate crisis and the climate crisis movement against fossil fuels are both creations of the Global North and they are relevant only to the Global North in terms of the context of rewind and do the Industrial Revolution correctly because the Industrial Revolution is a creation of the Global North and their love hate relationship with it can only be understood in that context. 

Therefore, although climate change is a global issue, its cause and the need for climate action as stated in AGW science can only be understood as a Global North issueIf the Global North needs to cut emissions in the Global South it must do so at no cost or hardship to be borne by the Global South. In addition, if the Global North admits that they screwed up their Industrial Revolution and caused global harm, they must pay the appropriate compensation to the affected.

Third World poverty is on the run



  • Anders Rasmusson: Chaamjamal, thank you, it’s my pleasure trying to present the circumstances in a way I would have done if still in operation as an chemical process
  • chaamjamal: Thank you for your detailed respinse.We see things differently I guess.
  • Anders Rasmusson: Chaamjamal : ”What about the climate science position that the airborne fraction is 50%? .... please see .....” Comments : Detrending, Monte