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Archive for April 2021

Global Warming, God and the "End Times" - Yale Program on Climate Change  Communication

CLIMATE NEWS ITEM#1: TO SAVE THE OCEAN, STOP EATING FISH. LINK: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/09/seas-stop-eating-fish-fishing-industry-government

THE FEAR; The the most important news humanity has ever received is that life on Earth is collapsing. The living planet is in a death spiral. Human society is under urgent threat from loss of Earth’s natural life. The ocean is 70% of the planet and here life is collapsing because of fishing – large corporations operating a vast empire of fishing ships OMG! OMG! and then there’s fish farming that is devastating the ocean’s eco system. OMG! OMG! The solution is this: we must all stop eating fish. Better yet just stop eating and die. We can save the planet if we get rid of the humans.

THE REALITY: This scare is not new. It has been used repeatedly in the past and it has taken on a life of its own. This fear was preached in 1977 (“Sea’s riches running out”) and again in 1994  (“Oceans running out of fish”) and in 2010 where we are told to contemplate oceans devoid of fish. And then again in the 2018 eco scare that human activity is killing off the fish in the oceans. And here it is again in 2021 pretty much the same script meaning that there is still plenty of fish in the ocean left to catch where humans compete with sharks, pikes, walleye, barracudas, dolphins, bears, seals, sea lions, sperm whales, gray whales, killer whales, fin whales, and humpback whales for the fish.

And yet there is still fish. OMG! OMG! when oh when will it all end?

CLIMATE NEWS ITEM#2: MOSCOW BREAKS TEMPERATURE RECORD OMG! OMG!. LINK: https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#search/from%3Ame/KtbxLthdlbQrXnQmRWPCgLrCHznzGPTknV

Moscow breaks temperature records mid-April

Moscow set an absolute temperature record on Tuesday, with 69.8 degrees Farenheit, which is the hottest April 13th for more than 140 years of meteorological observations, according to the Moscow Meteorological Bureau OMG! OMG! The climate change is going to kill us all with heat OMG! THIS IS NOT A GOOD TIME TO BRING UP THE INTERNAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY ISSUE BECAUSE OF THE DANGER WE FACE FROM GLOBAL HEATING OMG!

CLIMATE SCIENCE ISSUES

  1. THIS TEMPERATURE EVENT WAS NOT FORECAST BUT CLAIMED AS A CLIMATE IMPACT POST HOC.

2. THE CITY OF MOSCOW IS NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF GLOBAL CLIMATE PHENOMENA AND ITS WEATHER EVENTS SHOULD BE UNDERSTOOD AS INTERNAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY.

BELOW ARE LINKS TO RELATED POSTS ON THE INTERNAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY ISSUE AND THE POST HOC EVENT ATTRIBUTION ISSUE IN CLIMATE SCIENCE.

THE POST HOC EVENT ATTRIBUTION ISSUE: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/06/29/diffenbaugh-2017-extreme-weather-of-climate-change/

THE INTERNAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY ISSUE: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/07/16/the-internal-variability-issue/

CLIMATE NEWS ITEM#3: Our brains make it hard to solve climate change OMG! OMG!. LINK: https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-solutions/2020/05/14/how-our-brains-make-it-hard-solve-climate-change/

WHAT THIS SCIENTIST SAYS: In general, people are able to rank appliances in terms of energy use, but they don’t have a clear understanding for what magnitude the energy differences might be. So they will know an air conditioner might be using more energy than a desktop or laptop computer, but they don’t know how much. And so I think that’s somewhat problematic. But the good news is, in 2050, both conservatives and liberals want a severely decarbonized energy system. That’s really hopeful. But the question is, how do you get from where we are today to this 2050 vision? Okay, so people don’t know how little the iPhone is drawing and how much the washer is drawing. What are the implications of that? Attari: Since the 1980s, when people have been asked what is the single most effective thing you can do to conserve energy in your life, people have said … turn off the lights. Turning off the lights is great, but it’s not the most effective thing we can do … It’s actually the HVAC system. So these misperceptions are really important because if I am a motivated individual and I wanted to decrease my carbon footprint or my energy footprint, I’m putting my effort into the wrong bucket.

TRANSLATION: THE REASON ITS SO HARD TO SELL THE CLIMATE GAME IS THAT PEOPLE ARE TOO DUMB TO UNDERSTAND THE SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICS OF ENERGY THE WAY WE SCIENTISTS UNDERSTAND THEM.

Historically Speaking, Most Scientists Are Morons… part 1 of 2 | by  Corsair's Publishing | Circa Navigate
Surrounded by Idiots: The Four Types of Human Behavior and How to  Effectively Communicate with Each in Business (and in Life): Erikson,  Thomas: 9781250179944: Amazon.com: Books
A Concept About Increasing Gap Between Rich And Poor. Stock Photo, Picture  And Royalty Free Image. Image 101194326.

THE RICH AND POOR ISSUE IN CLIMATE CHANGE

CLIMATE NEWS ITEM#4: WORLD’S WEALTHIEST AT HEART OF CLIMATE PROBLEM: LINK: https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-56723560

WHAT THE ARTICLE SAYS: The world’s wealthy must radically change their lifestyles to tackle climate change. It says the world’s wealthiest 1% produce double the combined carbon emissions of the poorest 50%. The wealthiest 5% contributed 37% of emissions growth between 1990 and 2015. SO THE CLIMATE PROBLEM BOILS DOWN TO THE OVERCONSUMPTION PROBLEM. We have got to cut over-consumption among the polluting elites who contribute by more than their share of carbon emissions. We must educe carbon budgets and share this load more equally.

CRITICAL COMMENTARY: THE CLIMATE SCIENCE ISSUE IS THAT THE CO2 RELEASED FROM THE COMBUSTION OF FOSSIL FUELS CAUSES ATMOSPHERIC CO2 TO GO UP AND THIS TREND IN ATMOSPHERIC CO2 IS DRIVING A DANGEROUS TREND IN GLOBAL MEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE. . . . AND THAT THIS TREND CAN AND MUST BE BE STOPPED BY STOPPING THE BURNING OF FOSSIL FUELS. THIS IS IT. THAT’S ALL THERE IS TO IT. THERE IS NOTHING HERE ABOUT RICH OR POOR OR ABOUT WHAT YOUR SHARE IS IN EMISSIONS.

CLIMATE ACTION IS NOT SOME KIND OF A SOCIAL ISSUE THAT PITS RICH AGAINST POOR. WHETHER RICH OR POOR OR WHETHER LARGE EMITTER OR SMALL EMITTER WE MUST ALL SIMPLY STOP BURNING FOSSIL FUELS. THAT’S ALL THERE IS TO IT.

THE ANALYSIS OF THIS ISSUE IN TERMS OF A DIVIDE BETWEEN RICH AND POOR IS A CONFUSED AND IRRELEVANT VIEW OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUE.

A Concept About Increasing Gap Between Rich And Poor. Stock Photo, Picture  And Royalty Free Image. Image 101194326.

CLIMATE NEWS ITEM#5: WHAT A GLACIAL RIVER REVEALS ABOUT THE GREENLAND ICE SHEET! OMG! OMG!. LINK: http://spaceref.com/arctic-2/what-a-glacial-river-reveals-about-the-greenland-ice-sheet.html

WHAT THE ARTICLE SAYS: With data from a 2016 expedition, scientists supported by NASA are shedding more light into the complex processes under the Greenland Ice Sheet that control how fast its glaciers slide toward the ocean and contribute to sea level rise. On the surface of the ice sheet, bottomless sinkholes called moulins can funnel meltwater into the base of the ice. As that water reaches the ice sheet’s underlying bed, it can make the ice detach slightly and flow more rapidly. Glaciers that slide faster can eventually lead to the ice sheet melting a bit faster than expected, also increasing the amount of ice calved into the ocean. With a vast surface area roughly the size of Mexico, Greenland’s melting ice is the largest contributor to global sea level rise. In a new study, published April 5 in Geophysical Research Letters, the authors concluded that the one important factor influencing the speed of a sliding glacier in southwest Greenland was how quickly water pressure changed within cavities at the base of the ice where meltwater met bedrock. “Even if the cavities are small, as long as the pressure is ramping up very fast, they will make the ice slide faster,” said Dr. Laurence C. Smith, a professor of environmental studies and Earth, environmental, and planetary sciences at Brown University in Providence, Rhode Island. It’s the first time observations directly from field research show how changes in the volume of water under the Greenland Ice Sheet drive the flow velocities of a glacier. The findings contradict a long-held view about ice sliding velocities and water stored under a glacier known as steady-state basal sliding law, which has helped scientists predict how fast ice sheets will slide based on the total volume of water underneath the ice. Dr. Lauren Andrews, a glaciologist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, likes to explain the interactions between surface meltwater, basal ice, and the bedrock, as tires that slide very rapidly on a wet road because of hydroplaning. “If you have a rapid perturbation of water going into the subglacial system, you overwhelm the system, and so you create essentially a layer of water at the interface that’s not contained in channels or cavities anymore,” Andrews said. It’s not the actual volume in water that drives ice velocity, she explained, but the speed with which it builds up at a bedrock ice interface. For slow increases in water the subglacial system has time to evolve to accommodate the same amount of water. Until recently, the lack of data directly from the ground had made it difficult for scientists to probe the interactions that speed up glaciers in Greenland. One of the trickiest aspects preventing scientists from fully understanding ice sliding dynamics is the need to pair measurements of the flow of meltwater into a glacier with observations of the motion of the ice at the surface. The research team set camp on Russell Glacier near Kangerlussuaq, Greenland, and studied a glacial river named to honor the late NASA researcher Alberto Behar. By comparing GPS measurements of the motion of ice at the surface with the amount of meltwater discharging into a vertical shaft in the glacier, known as a moulin, as well as meltwater exiting the glacier’s edge, the team identified changes in water stored under the ice that corresponded with small accelerations in the ice at the surface. Past research on small alpine glaciers guided the design of the study. “There’s not a direct one-to-one relationship between the melting on the top and the meltwater exiting the ice sheet because the water is going through goodness knows what down below,” Smith said. The new findings will be valuable for satellites such as the upcoming NISAR satellite mission, a joint Earth-observing mission between NASA and the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), which will measure changes in ice surface velocity with unprecedented resolution for the entire Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, said Thorsten Markus, Cryospheric Science program manager at NASA. Projected to launch no earlier than 2022, NISAR may also enable further studies of ice surface velocities at much larger scales. Eventually, combining satellite observations with data acquired from the ground can help scientists as they consider adjusting their models to represent the hydrology at the base of ice sheets more accurately. Integrating new data in models is a gradual process, but Smith hopes the new findings can improve how climate models predict the pace of future sea level rise from Greenland’s ice in the face of climate change. “The only tools that we have to predict the future are models,” Smith said. “We have remote sensing, and we have field campaigns, so if we can use both to improve our modeling capability, we’ll be better able to adapt and mitigate sea level rise and climate change.” The fieldwork is one of many projects NASA has supported over the last two decades to interpret satellite observations and study the Greenland Ice Sheet using local field data.

CRITICAL COMMENTARY: THE ESSENTIAL ALARM HERE IS THAT { sinkholes called moulins can funnel meltwater into the base of the ice. As that water reaches the ice sheet’s underlying bed, it can make the ice detach slightly and flow more rapidly. Glaciers that slide faster can eventually lead to the ice sheet melting a bit faster than expected OMG! OMG!} The other issue with “the sheet’s underlying bed” is that the Arctic is geologically active with significant heat sources under the ice in terms of the Greenland Iceland mantle plume and other geological features of the Arctic. These features of the Arctic make it impossible to understand ice melt phenomena there as atmospheric phenomana. The relevant geological features of the Arctic are described in the related posts linked below:

RELATED POST#1: THE ARCTIC WARMS FROM BELOW: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/12/08/the-arctic-ocean-warms-from-below/

RELATED POST#2: GEOLOGICAL FEATURES OF THE ARCTIC: LINK https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/02/27/geological-features-of-the-arctic/

RELATED POST#3: THE GREENLAND ICELAND MANTLE PLUME: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/10/30/the-greenland-iceland-mantle-plume/

BIBLIOGRAPHY

  1. Fahnestock, Mark, et al. “High geothermal heat flow, basal melt, and the origin of rapid ice flow in central Greenland.” Science 294.5550 (2001): 2338-2342. Age-depth relations from internal layering reveal a large region of rapid basal melting in Greenland. Melt is localized at the onset of rapid ice flow in the large ice stream that drains north off the summit dome and other areas in the northeast quadrant of the ice sheet. Locally, high melt rates indicate geothermal fluxes 15 to 30 times continental background. The southern limit of melt coincides with magnetic anomalies and topography that suggest a volcanic origin.
  2. Rezvanbehbahani, Soroush, et al. “Predicting the geothermal heat flux in Greenland: A machine learning approach.” Geophysical Research Letters 44.24 (2017): 12-271. Geothermal heat flux (GHF) is a crucial boundary condition for making accurate predictions of ice sheet mass loss, yet it is poorly known in Greenland due to inaccessibility of the bedrock. Here we use a machine learning algorithm on a large collection of relevant geologic features and global GHF measurements and produce a GHF map of Greenland that we argue is within ∼15% accuracy. The main features of our predicted GHF map include a large region with high GHF in central‐north Greenland surrounding the NorthGRIP ice core site, and hot spots in the Jakobshavn Isbræ catchment, upstream of Petermann Gletscher, and near the terminus of Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden glacier. Our model also captures the trajectory of Greenland movement over the Icelandic plume by predicting a stripe of elevated GHF in central‐east Greenland. Finally, we show that our model can produce substantially more accurate predictions if additional measurements of GHF in Greenland are provided. FULL TEXT: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017GL075661
  3. van der Veen, Cornelis J., et al. “Subglacial topography and geothermal heat flux: Potential interactions with drainage of the Greenland ice sheet.” Geophysical research letters 34.12 (2007). Many of the outlet glaciers in Greenland overlie deep and narrow trenches cut into the bedrock. It is well known that pronounced topography intensifies the geothermal heat flux in deep valleys and attenuates this flux on mountains. Here we investigate the magnitude of this effect for two subglacial trenches in Greenland. Heat flux variations are estimated for idealized geometries using solutions for plane slopes derived by Lachenbruch (1968). It is found that for channels such as the one under Jakobshavn Isbræ, topographic effects may increase the local geothermal heat flux by as much as 100%.
  4. Greve, Ralf. “Relation of measured basal temperatures and the spatial distribution of the geothermal heat flux for the Greenland ice sheet.” Annals of Glaciology 42 (2005): 424-432The thermomechanical, three-dimensional ice-sheet model SICOPOLIS is applied to the Greenland ice sheet. Simulations over two glacial–interglacial cycles are carried out, driven by a climatic forcing interpolated between present conditions and Last Glacial Maximum anomalies. Based on the global heat-flow representation by Pollack and others (1993), we attempt to constrain the spatial pattern of the geothermal heat flux by comparing simulation results to direct measurements of basal temperatures at the GRIP, NorthGRIP, Camp Century and Dye 3 ice-core locations. The heat-flux map shows an increasing trend from west to east, a high-heat-flux anomaly around NorthGRIP with values up to 135 mWm–2 and a low-heat-flux anomaly around Dye 3 with values down to 20 mW m–2. Validation is provided by the generally good fit between observed and measured ice thicknesses. Residual discrepancies are most likely due to deficiencies of the input precipitation rate and further variability of the geothermal heat flux not captured here.
  5. Smith‐Johnsen, Silje, et al. “Sensitivity of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream to geothermal heat.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface 125.1 (2020): e2019JF005252. Recent observations of ice flow surface velocities have helped improve our understanding of basal processes on Greenland and Antarctica, though these processes still constitute some of the largest uncertainties driving ice flow change today. The Northeast Greenland Ice Stream is driven largely by basal sliding, believed to be related to subglacial hydrology and the availability of heat. Characterization of the uncertainties associated with Northeast Greenland Ice Stream is crucial for constraining Greenland’s potential contribution to sea level rise in the upcoming centuries. Here, we expand upon past work using the Ice Sheet System Model to quantify the uncertainties in models of the ice flow in the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream by perturbing the geothermal heat flux. Utilizing a subglacial hydrology model simulating sliding beneath the Greenland Ice Sheet, we investigate the sensitivity of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream ice flow to various estimates of geothermal heat flux, and implications of basal heat flux uncertainties on modeling the hydrological processes beneath Greenland’s major ice stream. We find that the uncertainty due to sliding at the bed is 10 times greater than the uncertainty associated with internal ice viscosity. Geothermal heat flux dictates the size of the area of the subglacial drainage system and its efficiency. The uncertainty of ice discharge from the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream to the ocean due to uncertainties in the geothermal heat flux is estimated at 2.10 Gt/yr. This highlights the urgency in obtaining better constraints on the highly uncertain subglacial hydrology parameters.
  6. Martos, Yasmina M., et al. “Geothermal heat flux reveals the Iceland hotspot track underneath Greenland.” Geophysical research letters 45.16 (2018): 8214-8222. Curie depths beneath Greenland are revealed by spectral analysis of data from the World Digital Magnetic Anomaly Map 2. A thermal model of the lithosphere then provides a corresponding geothermal heat flux map. This new map exhibits significantly higher frequency but lower amplitude variation than earlier heat flux maps and provides an important boundary condition for numerical ice‐sheet models and interpretation of borehole temperature profiles. In addition, it reveals new geologically significant features. Notably, we identify a prominent quasi‐linear elevated geothermal heat flux anomaly running northwest–southeast across Greenland. We interpret this feature to be the relic of the passage of the Iceland hotspot from 80 to 50 Ma. The expected partial melting of the lithosphere and magmatic underplating or intrusion into the lower crust is compatible with models of observed satellite gravity data and recent seismic observations. Our geological interpretation has implications for the geodynamic evolution of Greenland https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GL078289
  7. Artemieva, Irina M. “Lithosphere thermal thickness and geothermal heat flux in Greenland from a new thermal isostasy method.” Earth-Science Reviews 188 (2019): 469-481. Lithosphere thermal structure in Greenland is poorly known and models based on seismic and magnetic data are inconsistent, while growing awareness in the fate of the ice sheet in Greenland requires reliable constraints on geothermal heat flux (GHF) from the Earth’s interior in the region where conventional heat flux measurements are nearly absent. The lithosphere structure of Greenland remains controversial, while its geological evolution is constrained by direct observations in the narrow ice-free zone along the coasts. The effect of the Iceland hotspot on the lithosphere structure is also debated. Here I describe a new thermal isostasy method which I use to calculate upper mantle temperature anomalies, lithosphere thickness, and GHF in Greenland from seismic data on the Moho depth, topography and ice thickness. To verify the model results, the predicted GHF values are compared to available measurements and show a good agreement. Thick (200–270 km) cratonic lithosphere of SW Greenland with GHF of ca. 40 mW/m2 thins to 180–190 km towards central Greenland without a clear boundary between the Archean and Proterozoic blocks, and the deepest lithosphere keel is observed beneath the largest kimberlite province in West Greenland. The NW-SE belt with an anomalously thin (100–120 km) lithosphere and GHF of 60–70 mW/m2 crosses north-central Greenland from coast to coast and it may mark the Iceland hotspot track. In East Greenland this anomalous belt merges with a strong GHF anomaly of >100 mW/m2 in the Fjordland region. The anomaly is associated with a strong lithosphere thinning, possibly to the Moho, that requires advective heat transfer such as above active magma chambers, which would accelerate ice basal melting. The anomaly may extend 500 km inland with possibly a significant contribution of ice melt to the ice-drainage system of Greenland.
  8. Greve, Ralf, and Kolumban Hutter. “Polythermal three-dimensional modelling of the Greenland ice sheet with varied geothermal heat flux.” Annals of Glaciology 21 (1995): 8-12. Computations over 50 000 years into steady state with Greve’s polythermal ice-sheet model and its numerical code are performed for the Greenland ice sheet with today’s climatological input (surface temperature and accumulation function) and three values of the geothermal heat flux: (42, 54.6, 29.4) mW m−2. It is shown that through the thermomechanical coupling the geometry as well as the thermal regime, in particular that close to the bed, respond surprisingly strongly to the basal thermal heat input. The most sensitive variable is the basal temperature field, but the maximum height of the summit also varies by more than ±100m. Furthermore, some intercomparison of the model outputs with the real ice sheet is carried out, showing that the model provides reasonable results for the ice-sheet geometry as well as for the englacial temperatures.
Active Volcano Found Under Antarctic Ice: Eruption Could Raise Sea Levels

CONCLUSIONThe attribution of observed polar ice melt events to anthropogenic global warming along with the proposal that such melt events can be attenuated by taking climate action and moving the global energy infrastructure away from fossil fuels to renewables, is not possible in light of the complex episodic and localized nature of these ice melt events and their locations restricted to known geologically active areas. The attribution to anthropogenic global warming requires an explanation of these anomalies. If polar ice melt were driven by global warming it would be more uniform and more of a trend and not isolated, episodic, and not restricted to known geologically active locations. Glacial and ice shelf melt events that are episodic and restricted to geologically active locations cannot be understood as the impacts of fossil fuel emissions that can be moderated or prevented by taking climate action. For that, significant additional evidence must be provided that relates the melt events to atmospheric temperature data. No such evidence has been provided in this study where, as in all such studies, an atmosphere bias in the research methodology assumes that ice melt can only be explained in terms of anthropogenic global warming. Such findings are more likely to be the product of confirmation bias than unbiased and objective scientific inquiry. 

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/03/confirmationbias/

L

ITEM#1: LINK: https://theconversation.com/as-sea-levels-rise-are-we-ready-to-live-behind-giant-walls-137976

QUESTION: WHAT SHOULD WE DO ABOUT THE SEA LEVEL RISE ISSUE IN CLIMATE CHANGE? SHOULD WE BUILD HUGE WALLS?

COMMENT; CURRENTLY THE CLIMATE SCIENCE FORECAST FOR SEA LEVEL RISE IS 10 CENTIMETERS. THE ARGUMENT IS THAT IT WILL CAUSE A LIFESTYLE DISCOMFORT FOR PEOPLE WHO LIVE ON COASTAL LOWLANDS BECAUSE THEY WILL SUFFER FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE. THIS IS NOT A FORECAST FOR WHICH WE NEED TO BUILD “HUGE WALLS”.

Australia and southeast asia map - green hue Vector Image

ITEM#2: LINK: https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-a-security-threat-the-government-keeps-ignoring-well-show-up-empty-handed-to-yet-another-global-summit-158702

Debris caught on a submerged bridge

PROBLEM STATEMENT: AUSTRALIA’S CLIMATE RISK IS THAT AMONG THE RICH WESTERN COUNTRIES AUSTRAILA FACES A UNIQUE PROBLEM IN THE CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUE BECAUSE THEY ARE A LITTLE TOO CLOSE TO THE THIRD WORLD IN SOUTHEAST ASIA BECAUSE THERE WE HAVE THESE WORTHLESS PEOPLE UNABLE TO TAKE CARE OF THEMSELVES AND SUBJECTED TO THINGS LIKE SEA LEVEL RISE, TROPICAL CYCLONES, FAMINES AND SUCH THAT WILL LEAD TO CLIMATE MIGRANTS. ALL THESE CLIMATE HORRORS ARE A LITTLE TOO CLOSE TO HOME FOR AUSTRALIA. THIS SITUATION POSES AN EMERGING THREAT TO THE AUSTRALIAN WAY OF LIFE BECAUSE OUR THIRD WORLD LOCATION, WITH ALL THESE THIRD WORLD PEOPLE SO CLOSE TO US, IS A SECURITY THREAT.

COMMENT: OUR HEART GOES OUT TO THOSE UNLUCKY AUSTRALIANS DOOMED BY CIRCUMSTANCES TO THIS GEOGRAPHICAL HORROR OF BEING SO CLOSE TO THE THIRD WORLD DURING CLIMATE CHANGE THAT MAY IMPOSE ON THEM THE TRAGIC ROLE OF EITHER WATCHING THEM BEING DESTROYED OR HAVING TO HELP THEM IN SOME MANNER. OH THE HORROR! THE HORROR!

ITEM#3: LINK: https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-42671-2_4

PROBLEM STATEMENT: Climate change makes the Arctic ocean accessible for a range of human activities, such as shipping or hydrocarbon extraction OMG! OMG!,

This can severely damage the fragile natural environment. OMG! OMG!

The emergence of a ‘new ocean’ raises the question whether existing international legal norms are sufficient to adequately govern the Arctic ocean.

COMMENT: THIS IS OF COURSE, THE NORTHWEST PASSAGE DOOMOLOGY DISCUSSED IN A RELATED POST ON THIS SITE: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/07/17/the-northwest-passage-doomology/

THE ISSUE IS THAT GLOBAL WARMING IS BLAMED FOR LOW SEPTEMBER MINIMUM SEA ICE IN THE ARCTIC AND LOW SEPTEMBER MINIMUM SEA ICE IN THE ARCTIC IS BLAMED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF RE-OPENING THE SHORTER SHIPPING ROUTES THROUGH THE ARCTIC CALLED THE NORTHWEST PASSAGE THAT CONNECT THE MAJOR NORTHERN HEMISPHERE CONTINENTS AS SHOWN IN THE DIAGRAM BELOW. THE USE OF THE ARCTIC FOR SHIPPING IS THOUGHT TO BE PROBLEMATIC BECAUSE THERE IS NO GOVERNMING BODY FOR THE OPEN SEA OF THAT REGION THAT CAN REGULATE SHIPPING AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT OF WHAT IS THOUGHT TO BE AN ENVIRONMENTALLY SENSITIVE AREA. THESE CONCERNS ARE NOT REALLY ARGUMENTS AGAINST OPENING OF THE NORTHWEST PASSAGE BUT SIMPLY IMPORTANT DETAILS OF HOW THAT SHOULD BE DONE. WE WOULD NEED SOME KIND OF INTERNATIONAL GOVERNING BODY AND ENVIRONMENTAL STANDARDS TO REOPEN THE NORTHWEST PASSAGE BUT THESE CONCERNS DO NOT SERVE AS ARGUMENT AGAINST THE NORTHWEST PASSAGE. THE REAL CONCERN IN THE WEST MAY BE THAT IT WILL SERVE CHINA AND RUSSIA WITH A HUGE ECONOMIC ADVANTAGE.

NORTHWEST PASSAGE NATIONAL SECURITY ISSUE: LINK#1: http://www.environmentandsociety.org/exhibitions/northwest-passage/northwest-passage-matter-national-security

In the context of the Northwest Passage, security priorities have been extended from traditional concerns to newer ones related to the changing environment. The result of this is the systematic consolidation of nature as a military entity. The early period of the Cold War saw attempts to overcome what was perceived to be a hostile environment. As Kenneth Eyre observes, “neither the United States nor Canada looked on the North as a place to be protected because of some intrinsic value. Rather it was seen as a direction, as an exposed flank. As the polar ice recedes, the exploitation of resources increases, and the Arctic is a vast territory that is rich in oil and minerals. It is traversed by national boundaries and commercial shipping lines, but is also a vulnerable and changing ecosystem that is home to unique fish and wildlife populations. The real conflict in the Arctic today is not, in fact, between military forces, but rather between the competing needs of resource exploitation and environmental protection. The Canadian government aims to play the leading role in the region, but in order to be successful it must also demonstrate its ability to guarantee the security of the area—something that is more than a matter of simply patrolling the coasts.

LINK#2: https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-42671-2_4

Climate change makes the Arctic ocean accessible for a range of human activities, such as shipping or hydrocarbon extraction, which can severely damage the fragile natural environment. The emergence of a ‘new ocean’ raises the question whether existing international legal norms are sufficient to adequately govern the Arctic ocean in light of this changing situation. Looking at the work of existing institutions, initiatives by Arctic States and applicable legal norms, the authors investigate the suitability of the current international legal framework for the governance of the Arctic ocean in general and the protection of the marine environment in particular. In the absence of a regional seas agreement for the Arctic ocean, particular attention will be given to the work of the Arctic Council and to potential future developments of the international legal framework governing in particular the high seas part of the central Arctic ocean.

There are two issues in he Northwest Passage question. They are (1) Environmental concern that the Arctic is a fragile and unexploited region that will become open for exploitation and (2) Political and legal concern about how this newly created commercial territory will be governed. And unsaid in these articles but understood is the fearful role that China will surely play as the Northwest Passage gives China direct sea route to Europe and North America.

China charting a new course - China - Chinadaily.com.cn

Ignore the Fear Mongering, Here's What Climate Change Models Actually Say |  Mises Wire

1980: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE since 1850 and the Industrial Revolution we have doubled atmospheric CO2 and if we continue to burn fossil fuels it could double again in the next fifty years (2030) because fossil fuels produce carbon dioxide faster than plants can absorb them. Warming could cause the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to crack and slide into the ocean to raise sea levels by 16 feet and submerge Florida just as it had done in the previous interglacial 130,000 years ago. There are too many uncertainties to asses the economic impact and the less we know the scarier it gets. OMG! OMG!

kerry arctic circle prize

1981: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Climate change is related to ozone depletion and is just as scary if not more so. Chlorofluorocarbons, like carbon dioxide, also trap heat and cause global warming that can lead to melting polar ice caps and rising sea levels. The combination of CFC and CO2 emitted by human activity in the 1980s will raise temperature by 0.2 to 0.3 C rising even above the level of the 1930s, the warmest period of this century – OMG! OMG!

1981: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Rising carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere could bring a global warming of unprecedented magnitude melting the polar ice caps and flooding lowlands in the next century. The temperature rise could be 4.5 to 8 F depending on the growth in fossil fuel consumption. A doubling of CO2 will cause a temperature rise of 6 F. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is vulnerable to rapid disintegration and melting. A global mean temperature rise of 3.6 F could cause a rise of 9 F at Antarctica melting the Ice Sheet and raising sea levels by 15 to 20 feet and flooding 25% of Florida and Louisiana. OMG! OMG!

kerry arctic circle prize

1982: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE The use of fossil fuels will cause atmospheric carbon dioxide to double in the next 40 to 100 years raising temperatures by an average of 5 F by virtue of the greenhouse effect because carbon dioxide traps heat. The warming will cause polar ice to melt. In high northern latitudes spring will come earlier and earlier and winter later and later causing a decline in soil moisture. Warmer temperatures and less rainfall will devastate agriculture in much of the United States and the Soviet Union but a more regular monsoon pattern in India will increase rice production. Glaciers will melt and raise sea levels. But the government is not taking these forecasts seriously enough. OMG! OMG!

1982: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE in the period 1940-1980 50,000 cubic km of polar ice has melted by global warming and the sea level has risen by thermal expansion as well as the added water from the ice melt. Global warming is “due in some degree presumably to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide” is self-canceling because melting ice absorbs latent heat and cools the ocean. As polar ice melts, the resultant re-distribution of the earth’s mass slows down its rotational speed. In the 40-year period studied, earth’s rotational speed was thus slowed by 0.00000004%. OMG! OMG!

kerry arctic circle prize

1983: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE The world is powerless to prevent a greenhouse effect that will dramatically alter food production and living patterns. Instead of fighting the inevitable world leaders should be planning how to cope with its catastrophic impact. Coastal cities without sea-walls will be flooded. The climate of NYC will be like the climate now found in Florida. The US wheat belt will move northward. All because of global warming caused by a buildup of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels. By the year 2100 these changes will produce catastrophic results. We should respond to this challenge with a sense of urgency. The warming process now set in place is irreversible and the dire predictions of global warming can only be delayed by a few years even with Draconian restrictions on fossil fuels. By the year 2000 the temperature could be 1.1 degrees higher, 3.6 degrees higher by 2040, and 9 degrees higher by 2100. The temperature rise in the poles will be three times higher melting the polar ice caps and causing sea levels to rise 3.5 inches by 2000, one foot by 2025, and five feet by 2100. OMG! OMG!

1984: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Global warming caused by carbon dioxide pollution will cause noticeable warming by 2000 and increase the evaporation rate of water causing the level of the Great Lakes to drop 30% by 2050. These changes will cause a prolonged severe drought that will turn the American prairies into a dust bowl in the next few decades. OMG! OMG!

kerry arctic circle prize

1985: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE The Polar Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences says that the sea level will rise 4-6 cm by 2000 and 12-27 cm by 2030 because global warming from the greenhouse effect will warm the oceans and melt glaciers and polar ice caps including Greenland. OMG! OMG!

1986: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE The greenhouse effect will cause th earth to be warmer in he next decade than at any other time in the last 100,000 years and cause shoreline erosion, droughts, and other catastrophic changes just as the depletion of the ozone layer is doing. OMG! OMG!

kerry arctic circle prize

1988: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE the earth has been warmer in the first five months of this year than in any comparable period since measurements began 130 years ago” and therefore that the effects of greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels are now palpable. The nightmare has arrived, “the greenhouse effect is here” with the NYT reporting that “humans, by burning fossil fuels , have altered the global climate in a manner that will affect life on earth for centuries to come”. Southeast and Midwest states in the USA will experience “frequent episodes of very high temperatures and drought in the next decade and beyond” OMG! OMG!

1988: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE A buildup of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels  emitted by human activities into is causing the earth’s surface to warm by trapping infrared radiation from the sun and turning the entire earth into a kind of greenhouse – just as mathematical models had  predicted. Sometime between 2025 to 2050 the earth will be 3F to 9F warmer with higher latitudes 20F warmer. mathematical models had  predicted. Melting glaciers and polar ice and thermal expansion of the oceans will cause the sea level to rise by one to four feet by 2050 OMG! OMG!

kerry arctic circle prize

1988: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE The hottest years on record occurred in the 1980s with the first 5 months of this year very hot. Just as the models had predicted, the rise in temperature is greater in high latitudes than in low, is greater over continents than oceans, and there is cooling in the upper atmosphere as the lower atmosphere warms up. Clearly, global warming by greenhouse gas emissions as predicted by these computer models has begun OMG! OMG!

1990: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Global warming will cause serious environmental damage starting early in the next century long before the maximum predicted temperature is reached. We must set limits beyond which the global temperature and sea level should not be permitted to rise to avoid serious and ever increasing risks posed by the continued flow of heat trapping gases into the atmosphere at present rates. OMG! OMG!

kerry arctic circle prize

1990: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE the buildup of CO2 from fossil fuel consumption lead to rising temperatures worldwide, altered weather patterns, lower food production, and rising sea levels. In the long run the cost of inaction exceeds the cost of mitigation but government leaders do not understand that risk. OMG! OMG!

1993: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Using the most accurate system ever devised for measuring global sea levels,scientists have found a steady rise of 3 mm per year for the past two years. These data now establish beyond any doubt that the greenhouse effect is causing global warming. If this trend continues for another few years it will be solid evidence of a warming trend related to increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Doubts about the reliability of older and less precise temperature data may now be put aside as the very accurate sea level data clearly establishes the scientific basis of global warming. OMG! OMG!

kerry arctic circle prize

1995: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE After a three year hiatus the warming trend has returned. Global warming is not gone, it was just temporarily interrupted by the eruption of Mount Pinatubo. Temperatures have since rebounded to the levels of the 1980s – the warmest decade on record –reaching the record high of 60C reached in 1990. Global temperatures from March to December were the warmest since 1951. The mainstream view among researchers on climatic change is that atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases could double by the end of the next century and that this could produce a global warming of 1.5C to 4.5C. By comparison, the earth is 3C to 5C warmer now than in the last ice age, which ended about 10,000 years ago. A 2C warming,could cause ice at the poles to melt, rising sea levels, shifting climatic zones, and more extreme floods, droughts, storms, and cold and heat waves. Violent and frequent weather extremes have become more common since 1980. OMG! OMG!

1995: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Global warming will bring altered crop growing seasons, more severe storms, more tropical diseases, and the inundation of low lying areas by rising seas. As to the cause, the scientific debate about whether the warming is a natural variation or caused by man has now been settled. A scientific consensus due to advances in computer modeling has emerged that the cause of the warming is the greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide emitted by man’s fossil fuel consumption. These findings are now beyond question. OMG! OMG!

kerry arctic circle prize

1995: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE IPCC scientists are saying that the warming of the earth by 0.5C in the last 100 years is the biggest since the last ice age and is not within the range of natural variability. Therefore it must represent a man made influence on global climate. OMG! OMG!

1996: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE the Northeast US was hit by record cold and snowfall but the blizzard of 1996 and the bitter cold in Europe were actually caused by global warming because warming increases evaporation that in turn increases precipitation. The bitter winter this year represents a southward bulge of the Arctic air mass caused by global warming. OMG! OMG!

kerry arctic circle prize

1996: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE The earth’s climate will change rapidly in the coming century as greenhouse gases trap solar radiation. Thousands could die in major cities in heat waves and tens of millions will face malaria epidemics in areas where the disease does not now occur. Last July a heat wave killed 465 people in Chicago alone. This is an issue that must be taken seriously. Climate negotiators are warned against taking a wait and see attitude because the consequences of inaction are dire. OMG! OMG!

1996: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Earth’s temperature will rise by 2C in the next 100 years with serious negative effects. Extreme temperatures will become normal. Habitats will change. Many plants and animals will become extinct. Some regions will suffer water shortages. Polar ice will melt. The sea level will rise. Emissions of greenhouse gases that trap solar energy will double by the year 2010. A 50% reduction in emissions over the next 50 years is needed to reverse the warming trend. We are not on track to meet emission the reduction needed. OMG! OMG!

kerry arctic circle prize

1997: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Twenty years of hard data from meteorological stations and nature show a clear warming trend. Growth rings in Mongolian and Canadian trees are getting wider. Butterflies in California are moving to higher ground once too cold for butterflies. Stalactites in Britain are growing faster. The growing season for crops in Australia is getting longer. Permafrost in Siberia and Canada is melting. The evidence is there anywhere you look. A warming rate is one 1C per century is enough to wreak havoc. The cause is the greenhouse effect of CO2 emissions from fossil fuels as well as CFCs and HCFCs that trap heat. The effect is being compounded as deforestation simultaneously removes trees that absorb CO2. Some scientists are skeptical but the majority view is that the greenhouse effect is real and it requires urgent action. This conclusion rests on the results from sophisticated computer simulation models that give the best possible information on this topic even though they are not perfect. These models are giving us scary accounts of the future and we should be paying attention. The IPCC tell us that melting ice and thermal expansion of oceans will cause the sea level to rise one meter by 2037 and inundate low lying areas and island nations. Extreme weather events will become common. El Nino and La Nina cycles will become more extreme. There will be millions of climate refugees driven from their home by global warming. Some regions of the world will become hotter, others colder, some wetter, others drier. Entire weather systems will be dramatically altered. The Gulf Stream will switch off. Tropical diseases such as malaria will ravage the world: OMG! OMG!

1997: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Entire nations among the Pacific islands vanish beneath the waves, coastal communities in the USA from North Carolina to the Texas Gulf wash out to sea, wild swings in precipitation first bring drought and then torrential rains and floods, coastal mudslides in California become routine, and maple trees of the North die out as dengue fever and mosquito borne encephalitis move in. OMG! OMG!

kerry arctic circle prize

1997: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Without reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could double in the next century, warming the atmosphere and triggering an environmental chain reaction that could raise sea levels, change ocean currents and intensify damage from storms, droughts and the spread of tropical diseases.

1998: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Last year was the hottest year on record and this decade has already produced 9 of the 11 hottest years of the century. The data show that man made greenhouse gases are causing a potentially disastrous warming of the earth. OMG! OMG!

kerry arctic circle prize

1998: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE 1998 will be UK’s hottest year since 1106, “the warmest year of the millennium”; sometime between 2041 and 2070 we will see a sharp rise in sick, hungry, and thirsty people; by 2048 the world’s forests will become so degraded that they will change from net CO2 sinks to net CO2 producers further accelerating global warming; human greenhouse gas emissions have contributed substantially to global warming over the past half century; the climate model is validated by its ability to reconstruct the last 150 years of climate conditions; the 1997-1998 ElNino is the most extreme on record; in the next 100 years global temperatures will rise by 6C – the most extreme in the last 10,000 years. The Amazon forest will die out and rot releasing carbon dioxide. Tropical grasslands will be transformed into deserts. For the first half of the 21st century, vegetation will absorb CO2 at a rate of about 2-3 GtC per year while human emissions of CO2 are about 7GtC a year. From 2050 onwards, vegetation dying under the impact of climate change will itself add about 2GtC a year to greenhouse emissions, further intensifying global warming. Global warming will accelerat due to “positive feedback” – a way by which the global warming we have caused will itself cause further global warming. More than 170 million people will suffer from water shortage. Crop yields will increase in areas like Canada and Europe, but nearer the equator they will shrink. Some 18% more of Africa’s people will be at risk of hunger simply because of climate change. Sea levels will rise by 21 cm inundating 20 million people. Malaria infection will increase, and spread to areas where it is not currently seen. OMG! OMG!

1998: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE The first half of 1998 was the warmest six months ever recorded on earth. The month of July, 1998 will also set a record. A heat wave in the Southwest has caused dozens of deaths with the hottest weather to hit the state since 1980. Tuesday was the 9th straight day that the temperature there has broken 100F. The heat wave is accompanied by drought that will drain $4.6 billion from the Texas economy in the next few months. Oklahoma had 6 deaths and Louisiana 20 deaths from the heat wave. According to NOAA data the near surface temperature for June 1998 over both land and water were at an all time high. There is no time in data history that we have seen this sequence of record setting for six consecutive months. OMG! OMG!

kerry arctic circle prize

1999: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Sea ice in the Arctic Basin is shrinking by 14000 square miles per year “probably” because of global warming caused by human activity according to a new international study that used 46 years of data and sophisticated computer simulation models to tackle the specific question of whether the loss of Arctic ice is a natural variation or caused by global warming. The computer model says that the probability that these changes were caused by natural variation is 1% but when global warming was added to the model the ice melt was a perfect fit. OMG! OMG!

1999: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE A computer simulation model shows that increasing the temperature on the Arctic tundra can triple its CO2 emissions from the soil of the tundra. The Arctic contains 1/3 of the earth’s soil stored carbon dioxide. The computer model shows a positive feedback look that can cause global warming to snowball because warming in itself can increase carbon dioxide in the air and accelerate the rate of warming. It is a frightening scenario that could cause global warming catastrophe to occur sooner than previously thought. OMG! OMG!

kerry arctic circle prize

2000: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Rapidly warming seas caused by global warming has turned coral reefs into endangered ecosystems. 25% of the world’s coral reefs are already gone. Without urgent and immediate CO2 emission reductions coral reefs will be completely gone from the planet in 30 to 50 years. OMG! OMG!

kerry arctic circle prize

2000: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE blue-ribbon panel of climate scientists from the National Academy of Sciences has issued a report saying that “global warming is undoubtedly real” and it is under way with dire consequences to follow. Global temperatures have risen more sharply in the last 20 years than at any time this century.  OMG! OMG!

2001: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE so much CO2 has already been injected into the air that global warming is “already unstoppable”; the world is warming at an accelerating rate; tens of millions of people around the world will be driven from their homes in the coming decades to become climate change refugees; governments must take urgent action to reduce carbon dioxide emissions; climate change is now so rapid that it is not possible for us to adapt to these changes; human ecosystems and biodiversity will all be affected and it will affect the world economy; the temperature rise in the next 100 years will be between 1.4C and 5.8C, significantly higher than previously thought; human influences will continue to change atmospheric composition throughout the 21st century; global warming will persist for many centuries by virtue of the CO2 we have already put into the air. OMG! OMG!

kerry arctic circle prize

2001: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE global warming may trigger climate changes so abrupt that ecosystems will not be able to adapt. Look for local or short term cooling, floods, droughts, and other unexpected changes. A growing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere due to the use of fossil fuels is to blame. Some regional climates have changed by as much as 10C in 10 years. Antarctica’s largest glaciers are rapidly thinning, and in the last 10 years have lost up to 150 feet of thickness in some places, enough to raise global sea levels by 0.4 mm OMG! OMG!

2001: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Carbon dioxide from unhindered burning of fossil fuels will raise earth’s temperature 5.8C by 2100. The work of the panel over the last 10 years has now effectively ended the debate about man made global warming It is time for governments to get serious about reducing emissions.No country can afford to ignore the coming transformation of its natural and human environment. The poor and vulnerable are at greatest risk. OMG! OMG!

kerry arctic circle prize

2002: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE 2002, ICE SHELF COLLAPSE A WARNING
A piece of ice the size of Rhode island broke off the Larsen ice shelf in Antarctica and within a month it dissipated sending a huge flotsam of ice into the sea. At about the same time an iceberg the size of Delaware broke off the Thwaites Glacier. A few months ago parts of the Ross ice shelf had broken off in a similar way. These events serve as a dramatic reminders that global warming is real and its effects are potentially catastrophic and underscores the urgent need for a binding international agreement to cut greenhouse gas emissions. OMG! OMG!

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2003: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Carbon Soot that lands on snow has caused ¼ of the warming since 1880 because dirty snow traps more solar heat than pristine snow and induces a strong warming effect, according to a NASA computer model. This is why sea ice and glaciers are melting faster than they should. OMG! OMG!

kerry arctic circle prize

2003: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Downhill skiing could disappear altogether in some areas. A retreating snow line will cut off base villages from their ski runs by 2030. Traditional low altitude ski resorts of Europe will have to either shut down or suffer higher costs of snow making. Global warming will push the altitude for ski resorts from 4265 feet to 4900-6000 feet. Austria’s snow line is set to rise by 656 to 984 feet in the next 30-50 years leaving many ski resorts behind. Temperatures are set to rise by 2C to 6C by 2100. Dramatic action is needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. OMG! OMG!

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2004: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Global warming has unleashed massive ecological changes. These changes are ushering in a grim future including massive species extinctions, an elevation of sea levels by 3 feet, wholesale changes to the Arctic, and disruptions to the earth’s life support system. This is a wake up call to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. OMG! OMG!

kerry arctic circle prize

2004: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Half of the 150 species of wildlife in the USA show signs that Global warming is changing our own back yard. Many species are going extinct in the southern edge of their range. Edith’s checkerspot butterfly is in sharp decline near the Mexico-California border where it has become too warm and dry. The red fox is heading north and can now be found in the Arctic. In Florida and the Gulf coast people are seeing many new species coming up from Mexico and the Caribbean. A previous worldwide study of 1500 species showed that this effect is global. OMG! OMG!

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2004: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Up in the Arctic,  polar bears, walruses, and some seals are becoming extinctArctic summer sea ice may disappear entirely. Combined with a rapidly melting Greenland ice sheet, it will raise the sea level 3 feet by 2100 inundating lowlands from Florida to Bangladesh. Average winter temperatures in Alaska and the rest of the Arctic are projected to rise an additional 7 to 13 degrees over the next 100 years because of increasing emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities. The area is warming twice as fast as anywhere else because of global air circulation patterns and natural feedback loops, such as less ice reflecting sunlight, leading to increased warming at ground level and more ice melt. Native peoples’ ways of life are threatened. Animal migration patterns have changed, and the thin sea ice and thawing tundra make it too dangerous for humans to hunt and travel. OMG! OMG!

kerry arctic circle prize

2004: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE GLOBAL WARMING WILL MELT THE GREENLAND ICE SHEET. A meltdown of the massive ice sheet, which is more than 3km-thick would raise sea levels by an average seven meters, threatening countries such as Bangladesh, certain islands in the Pacific and some parts of Florida. Greenland’s huge ice sheet could melt within the next thousand years if emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) are not reduced. OMG! OMG!

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2004: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE increasing greenhouse gases from human activities is causing the Arctic to warm twice as fast as the rest of the planet; in Alaska, western Canada, and eastern Russia winter temperatures have risen by 2C to 4C in the last 50 years; the Arctic will warm by 4C to 7C by 2100. A portion of Greenland’s ice sheet will melt; global sea levels will rise; global warming will intensify. Greenland contains enough melting ice to raise sea levels by 7 meters; Bangkok, Manila, Dhaka, Florida, Louisiana, and New Jersey are at risk of inundation; thawing permafrost and rising seas threaten Arctic coastal regions; climate change will accelerate and bring about profound ecological and social changes; the Arctic is experiencing the most rapid and severe climate change on earth and it’s going to get a lot worse; Arctic summer sea ice will decline by 50% to 100%polar bears will be driven towards extinction; this report is an urgent SOS for the Arctic; forest fires and insect infestations will increase in frequency and intensity; changing vegetation and rising sea levels will shrink the tundra to its lowest level in 21000 years; vanishing breeding areas for birds and grazing areas for animals will cause extinctions of many species; “if we limit emission of heat trapping carbon dioxide we can still help protect the Arctic and slow global warming” OMG! OMG!

kerry arctic circle prize

2004: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE GLOBAL WARMING WILL LEAVE ARCTIC ICE FREE
The Arctic ice cap is shrinking at an unprecedented rate and will be gone by 2070. It has shrunk by 15%to 20% in the last 30 years. This process will accelerate with the Arctic warming twice as fast as the rest of the world due to a buildup of heat trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Our fossil fuel emissions are to blame. OMG! OMG!

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2005: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE HURRICANE KATRINA WAS CAUSED BY OUR USE OF FOSSIL FUELS
In the 2004 hurricane season more than 14 tropical cyclones formed in the North Atlantic basin. Four of these storms intensified to Category 4 or greater and made landfall in the USA causing considerable damage. The even more dramatic 2005 season followed in its heels with more than thirty depressions. Four of them intensified to Category 5 and three made landfall. The most intense was Hurricane Wilma but the most spectacular was Hurricane Katrina which made landfall in Florida and again in Louisiana. Climate scientists stepped up quickly and said that Katrina was confirmed as a climate change event by climate models. This is how fossil fuel emissiosn drive hurricane destructiveness. OMG! OMG!

kerry arctic circle prize

2005: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE there are METHANE BOMBS IN THE PEAT BOGS OF SIBERIA
Man-made global warming is melting the vast peat bogs of Siberia. The melt will release enough methane and carbon dioxide to bring about climate change Armageddon by virtue of a positive feedback and its non-linear process gone berserk. OMG! OMG!

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2006: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE the coral is doomed to extinction by gobal warming. Climate scientists see all coral bleaching as anomalous and unnatural and therefore symptoms of human caused global warming, as if they had never seen coral bleaching before. In 2006, they issued an alarm that “it was already too late for the coral” because we have put too much CO2 into the atmosphere and the warming and acidification of the oceans thus caused will kill off all the world’s coral.

kerry arctic circle prize

2007: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Bangkok, Thailand is threatened by global warming sea level rise.
It has been more than a year now that scientists and climate experts sought a budget of 100 billion baht to build a sea wall 80 kilometers long from the mouth of the Ta Chin river to the Bang Pakong river to protect the city of Bangkok from being inundated by the sea that is projected to rise by 20 cm per year due to man-made global warming. OMG! OMG!

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2007: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE WE PASSED THE CLIMATE CHANGE TIPPING POINT AND ARE DOOMED. Climate scientists have declared that it is now too late to save the planet because we have passed the tipping point. The damage already done by the carbon dioxide has put into motion irreversible non-linear changes that will lead us to climate doom. OMG! OMG!

kerry arctic circle prize

2007: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Greenland is meltinng. A comparison of Landsat photos taken on 8/11/1985 and 9/5/2002 shows that global warming is melting the massive Greenland ice sheet and exposing the rocky peninsula beneath the ice previously covered by ice. OMG! OMG!

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2007: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE The rate of retreat of the Gangotri glacier in the Himalayan mountains has accelerated from 19 meters/yr in 1971 to 34 meters/yr in 2001. Extrapolation of the observed acceleration forward shows that global warming devastation due to carbon dioxide is only a decade away for people who depend on the Ganges and other rivers with headwaters in the Himalayas. OMG! OMG!

kerry arctic circle prize

2007: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Global warming caused by our use of fossil fuels has devastated the Andes Mountains in South America where they are losing their ice and water supplies. OMG! OMG! We must help these poor people by reducing fossil fuel emissions thereby curbing global warming and climate change.

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2007: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE THE ARCTIC IS SCREAMING. Climate science has found that the low sea ice extent in the Arctic is the leading indicator of climate change. The Arctic “is screaming”, Arctic sea ice extent is the “canary in the coal mine”, and Polar Bears and other creatures in the Arctic are dying off and facing imminent extinction. Scientists say that the melting sea ice has set up a positive feedback system that would cause the summer melts in subsequent years to be greater and greater until the Arctic becomes ice free in the summer of 2012. We must take action immediately to cut carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels. OMG! OMG!

kerry arctic circle prize

2007: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE In the Bali climate meeting scientists declared that economic development is a bad thing because hurricanes, cyclones, snowstorms, and floods are killing people as a result of the war on nature waged by humanity burning fossil fuels in pursuit of economic development. OMG! OMG!

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2007: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE CLIMATE CHANGE REACHED A TIPPING POINT. THIS IMPLIES THATTHE WARMING ALREADY CREATED BY FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS WILL NOW DRIVE ITSELF WITH NATURAL FEEDBACKS. OMG! OMG!

kerry arctic circle prize

2007: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE CONTINUED CLIMATE CHANGE WILL CAUSE PENGUINS TO BECOME EXTIINCT. The penguins are flightless and not well dispersed and therefore at risk of extinction. OMG! OMG!

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2007: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE At the current rate of increase in the use of fossil fuels, the sea level would rise by 7 meters in 100 years and devastate low-lying countries like Bangladesh. OMG! OMG!

kerry arctic circle prize

2007: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE the dead planet Venus represents earth’s fate if we don’t reduce greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels. OMG! OMG!

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2007: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE droughts, floods, landslides, and rising sea levels are becoming commonplace in Indonesia OMG! OMG!

kerry arctic circle prize

2008: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE the Arctic is on its way to becoming ice free in summer and the polar bear should be declared an endangered species under the Endangered Species Act and we must act quickly and decisively to cut emissions and turn the climate temperature knob down to where the Polar Bear can survive. OMG! OMG!

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2008: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Our use of fossil fuels is devastating the Arctic where the volume of sea ice “fell to its lowest recorded level to date” this year and that reduced ice coverage is causing a non-linear acceleration in the loss of polar ice because there is less ice to reflect sunlight. OMG! OMG!

kerry arctic circle prize

2008: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE human activity is causing the earth to become warmer and that global warming will soon be out of control and that there will be devastating consequences to our use of fossil fuels. OMG! OMG!

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2008: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Climate scientists looking through satellite pictures found a crack in the Petermann glacier in Greenland and determined that it could speed up sea level rise because huge chunks of ice the size of Manhattan were hemorrhaging off. OMG! OMG!

kerry arctic circle prize

2008: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE In May 2008 Cyclone Nargis, with maximum wind speeds of 100 mph, struck Myanmar and caused a storm surge that went up the Irrawaddy River and killed 140,000 people. Climate science has since determined that Nargis was an impact climate change and that its deadly storm surge is a new property of tropical cyclones in this region that is a creation of climate change. OMG! OMG!  

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2007: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Our use of fossil fuels is devastating the Arctic where the volume of sea ice fell to its lowest recorded level to date this year and that reduced ice coverage is causing a non-linear acceleration in the loss of polar ice because there is less ice to reflect sunlight. OMMG! OMG!

kerry arctic circle prize

2010: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Carbon dioxide causes volcanic eruptions in Iceland. This is because carbon dioxide emissions cause global warming and global warming in turn causes glaciers in Iceland to melt, and melting glaciers lighten the weight of the ice cap on volcanoes and thereby trigger eruptions OMG! OMG!

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2020: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE The Arctic is one of the most rapidly changing regions in the world. Diminishing sea ice, thawing permafrost and melting glaciers are all direct effects of rising global temperatures – driven by human-made emissions. OMG! OMG!

kerry arctic circle prize

2017: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE the warming in the Arctic is unprecedented in 1,500 years. OMG! OMG!

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2018: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE Climate change causes income inequality between hot low latitude countries, eg India, and cool high latitude countries, eg Sweden.  The income inequality is described as an increasing spread in per capita GDP between the cool rich country and the hot poor country. OMG! OMG!

kerry arctic circle prize

2021: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE as global temperatures rise, the world’s oceans are becoming more stable. Ocean stability implies that the upper layer trapping is more heat, and containing less nutrients, with a big impact on ocean life and the climate. OMG! OMG!

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2021: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE THE GREAT BARRIER REEF IS ON THE PATH TO DESTRUCTION. The earth has already warmed by 1.1 degrees and medium-range estimates forecast 1.5 degrees of warming by 2045 to 2050. Coral bleaching events, which are driven by hot weather and clear sunny days, now occur on average every six years and their frequency is set to rise. OMG! OMG!

kerry arctic circle prize

2021: IMMEDIATE ACTION IS REQUIRED TO STEM THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND AVOID THE MUTUAL SUICIDE PACT ACROSS THE PLANET WITH EXPLOSIVE NATURAL FEEDBACK WARMING WHEN THE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS 1.5C ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL BECAUSE a third of Antarctic ice shelves risk collapsing due to climate change if the world fails to take sufficient action on climate change. The ice shelves circling the continent are vulnerable to meltwater on their surface causing the ice to crack and disintegrate, a process known as hydrofracturing. OMG! OMG!

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IPCC report points out the benefits of a tax shift | United by Tax

THIS POST IS A PRESENTATION OF A CLIMATE CHANGE ARTICLE BY THE ECONOMIST ON THE EXPECTED FAILURE OF THE PARIS AGEEMENT.

LINK TO SOURCE: https://www.economist.com/schools-brief/2020/05/09/humanitys-immense-impact-on-earths-climate-and-carbon-cycle

THE ECONOMIST DOES CLIMATE | Thongchai Thailand

A QUOTATION FROM THE ARTICLE

QUESTION: THE PARIS AGREEMENT CALLS FOR INCREASES TO THE ATMOSPHERE’S CARBON DIOXIDE LEVEL CAUSED BY FOSSIL FUELS TO END BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE CENTURY (THE YEAR 2050). BUT THAT DEADLINE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE MET. SO WHAT HAPPENS IF WE FAIL TO MEET THE PARIS AGREEMENT TARGET?

ANSWER: EVEN IF THE PARIS AGREEMENT TARGET IS NOT MET, SOME MIXTURE OF POLICY, CATASTROPHE, AND RESOURCE DEPLETION WILL EVENTUALLY BRING THE RISE IN ATMOSPHERIC CO2 TO AN END. THE FLOWS OF CARBON BETWEEN THE ATMOSPHERE, OCEAN, AND BIOSPHERE WILL THEN COME BACK INTO BALANCE.

ATMOSPHERIC CO2: THE CARBON DIOXIDE LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SETTLE DOWN. THE TEMPERTURE MAY STILL STAY HIGH BUT THE WARMING WILL END. BUT THAT TEMPERATURE PLATEAU WILL EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE DUE TO A NATURAL RESPONSE TO HIGH TEMPERATURE.

SIICATE MINERALS; FOR EXAMPLE, THE EROSION OF THE EARTH’S CRUST EXPECTED BY CLIMATE SCIENCE WILL EXPOSE SILICATE MINERALS THAT WILL REMOVE CARBON DIOXIDE FROM THE ATMOSPHERE AND CAUSE COOLING OVER SUFFICIENTLY LONG TIME SCALES.

Enhanced Weathering: crushed rocks spread on farmland can capture billions  of tons of CO2/year - Energy Post

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION BY THE BLOGGER

CLIMATE CATASTROPHE IS SELF CORRECTNG BECAUSE THE CATASTROPHE WILL CAUSE A REDUCTION IN CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS SUCH THAT WARMING WILL CEASE ALTHOUGH PERHAPS AT A HIGHER TEMPERATURE THAN PRESENT. OVER LONGER TIME SCALES, THAT HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL DECLINE BY WAY OF THE GEOLOGIC SILICATE CARBON ABSORPTION. THE PLANET WILL NOT DIE.

Portrait of a planet on the verge of climate catastrophe | Climate change |  The Guardian

Thomas Malthus and population growth (video) | Khan Academy

QUESTION:

Could CO2 emissions be a modern Malthusian population problem?

RESPONSE:

To describe CO2 as a modern Malthusian problem there would have to have been an old Malthusian problem but there wasn’t. Unlike Ehrlich, Malthus never claimed that there was overpopulation in his time. He simply made the observation that since population grows and land doesn’t there will come a time when the available land cannot grow enough food for all the humans that there are. But his forecast turned out to be flawed wisdom because he made the classical forecast error of trying to solve tomorrow’s problems with yesterday’s technology. The Green Revolution proved him wrong. Malthus screwed up and Malthusianism is not a valid way to forecast future food availability.

There is no “modern Malthusian problem” and the climate change issue of our time has nothing to do with Malthusianism or overpopulation or environmentalism.

Climate change theory is simply that burning fossil fuels causes atmospheric CO2 to rise and that in turn causes GMST (global mean surface temperature) to rise and to stop that dangerous trend we must stop burning fossil fuels.

That’s all there is to it.

There is nothing there about environmentalism or the population bomb or veganism or any of the other eco wacko movements that have climbed on to the climate bus.

RELATED POST:

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/01/17/population-bomb-davidism/

Climate Hysteria - YouTube

THIS POST IS A BRIEF SUMMARY OF SOME ITEMS IN THE CLIMATE HYSTERIA OF APRIL 9 2021 ALONG WITH LINKS TO RELEVANT POSTS ON THIS SITE.

CLIMATE HYSTERIA ARTICLE #1: THE OCEAN IS BECOMING MORE STABLE. OMG OMG!!!

IT WAS ALL A HOAX: Little Girl Seen Crying in Viral Video at Global Warming  Rally Is a Child Actress - She Was Just a Child Prop for the Left

If you’ve ever been seasick, “stable” may be the last word you associate with the ocean. But as global temperatures rise, the world’s oceans are technically becoming more stable. When scientists talk about ocean stability, they refer to how much the different layers of the sea mix with each other. A recent study analysed over a million samples and found that, over the past five decades, the stability of the ocean increased at a rate that was six times faster than scientists were anticipating. Ocean stability is an important regulator of the global climate and the productivity of marine ecosystems which feed a substantial portion of the world’s people. It controls how heat, carbon, nutrients and dissolved gases are exchanged between the upper and lower layers of the ocean. So while a more stable ocean might sound idyllic, the reality is less comforting. It could mean the upper layer trapping more heat, and containing less nutrients, with a big impact on ocean life and the climate.

TRANSLATION: IN THE SCIENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, WHAT YOU HAVE TO DO IS TO WAIT FOR SOMETHING UNUSUAL THAT YOU NEITHER PREDICTED NOR EXPECTED AND THEN (1) FIND THE HORROR IN THAT IMPACT NO MATTER WHAT IT IS AND (2) PRESENT THE UNUSUAL EVENT AS AN IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE SIMPLY BECAUSE IT IS UNUSUAL. IF IT WAS NOT EXPCTED THAT MAKES IT AN EVEN MORE UNUSUAL AND THEREFORE MORE WORRISOME IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND MORE REASON TO RUSH TO RENEWABLES AND TO GET RID OF FOSSIL FUELS. THERE IS A WORD FOR THIS KIND OF SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE. THAT WORD IS BIAS. MORE SPECIFICALLY IT IS CALLED CONFIRMATION BIAS AND DOWN IN TEXAS THEY CALL IT THE TEXAS SHARPSHOOTER FALLACY WHERE YOU SHOOT FIRST AND IDENTIFY THE TARGET AFTER YOU HAVE SEEN WHERE YOUR BULLET HIT.

RELATED POSTS ON CONFIRMATION BIAS IN CLIMATE SCIENCE

LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/06/29/diffenbaugh-2017-extreme-weather-of-climate-change/

LINK#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/03/confirmationbias/

LINK#3: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/10/09/a-data-selection-bias/

LINK#4: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/04/05/the-null-hypothesis-issue/

LINK#5: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/02/12/global-warming-and-the-pandemic/

CLIMATE HYSTERIA ARTICLE #2: THE GREAT BARRIER REEF IS ON THE PATH TO DESTRUCTION. OMG OMG!!!

Great Barrier Reef, Australia - Why Wander

Australia’s foremost coral reef scientist Professor Terry Hughes says government plans to restore the Great Barrier Reef are doomed to failure because they’re too small and expensive, while the rate of catastrophic bleaching events are already recurring faster than corals can recover. A recent Australian Academy of Sciences report said that if the world warmed by 2 degrees Celsius just one per cent of corals would survive. The earth has already warmed by 1.1 degrees and medium-range estimates forecast 1.5 degrees of warming by 2045 to 2050. Coral bleaching events, which are driven by hot weather and clear sunny days, now occur on average every six years and their frequency is set to rise. The federal government has committed $100 million for reef restoration projects, beginning with $2 million to trial underwater fans to cool the water for a tiny proportion of the reef and is also investigating using sun shields to reduce solar radiation as well as funding ‘coral gardening’ to grow and replace dead corals. But restoration projects are a distraction from the real work required to save the reef. That clever science can fix it has no credibility. We need to address the root cause, which is climate change. When bleached, corals are highly stressed but not dead. However, they are more likely to die when they’re bleached and take at least 10 years to recover – depending on the species. Some large colonies of longer-lived species are hundreds of years old. These species are generally more resistant to bleaching than faster-growing species, but with the increased severity of bleaching events, even these ‘tougher’ species are being lost. Overheated sea surface temperatures cause corals to eject the algae which live in their tissue, which causes them to turn stark white. The first time we saw back-to-back events on the Great Barrier Reef was the bleaching in 2016 and 2017. Now it’s predicted that back-to-back bleaching could occur every year by mid-century. The number of corals in the Great Barrier Reef has halved in the past twenty years. Increasingly frequent bleaching events are occurring too close together and corals don’t have enough time to recover. These centuries-old corals also provide a valuable record of climatic conditions. Like tree rings, corals show distinct annual ‘growth bands’ which can be used to reconstruct environmental conditions over hundreds of years, including past bleaching events. They reveal that mass bleaching events of the scale we are currently seeing did not occur prior to the 1980s. The narrowing window for coral recovery had already closed too far for coral reefs to bounce back to full health. In the past decade after 2010 the gap between bleaching events had dropped to just six years – and that gap is the window for coral recovery,” he said. “The problem is corals grow pretty slowly. They need a decade for recovery of the faster-growing species, and much longer for slower-growing ones. In the past year there has been bleaching events around the world, including on the Great Barrier Reef and the Coral Sea over summer, in Taiwan during the northern summer, and currently in the Solomons Islands and Papua New Guinea. These bleaching events are occurring during La Nina events, which usually produce cooler conditions. There is now enough heat in the system that any given summer is hot enough to induce a bleaching event. We’re relying on weather events, such as monsoonal troughs or cyclones, to come at the right time to reduce heat stress and avoid bleaching. Even cooler areas of the subtropics are seeing repeated bleaching from these marine heatwaves.

TRANSLATION: IN THIS EXAMPLE OF THE SCIENCE OF CLIMATE SCIENCE WHAT WE FIND IS THE PERVASIVE AND ENTRENCHED PRACTICE OF CREATING PITIFUL CUTE AND LOVABLE VICTIMS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AS AN EMOTIONAL ACTIVISM FOR CLIMATE ACTION. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT AFTER MORE THAN A HUNDRED YEARS OF CLIMATE CHANGE THE EARTH’S CORAL REEFS ARE STILL HERE. THAT THEY GO THROUGH BLEACHING CYCLES IS A GIVEN AND NOT SOME BAMBI REASON FOR US TO FEEL PITY FOR THEM. THAT THEY HAVE BEEN AROUND FOR “HUNDREDS OF YEARS” IS PROOF OF THEIR ENDURANCE AND DURABILITY AND NOT OF THEIR IMMINENT COLLAPSE FROM WARMING. THAT THE CURRENT WARMING IS FOUND TO BE EXCEPTIONALLY HOT IN RELATION TO PAST “CENTURIES” IS A BIASED ARGUMENT BECAUSE THAT REFERENCE TIME SPAN DOES NOT GO BACK THROUGH ALL THE WARM PERIODS OF THE HOLOCENE INTERGLACIAL THAT GOES BACK FOR THOUSANDS OF YEARS. IT IS A CHERRY PICKED COMPARISON. WHAT IS PRESENTED AS SCIENCE AND THEREFORE CREDIBLE BECAUSE THE SCIENTIST INVOLVED IS AN ESTEEMED SCIENTIST IS ITSELF AN UNSCIENIFIC ARGUMENT BECAUSE ITS CLAIM TO TRUTH DERIVES FROM THE AD HOMINEM APPEAL TO AUTHORITY FALLACY.

RELATED POSTS ON CORAL REEFS AND THE APPEAL TO AUTHORITY FALLACY IN CLIMATE SCIENCE

LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/12/08/history-of-coral-reefs/

LINK#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/02/16/mid-holocene-warm-period/

Logical Fallacy. A logical fallacy is a false statement… | by Mudit  Maheshwari | Medium

CLIMATE HYSTERIA ARTICLE #3: ICE SHELF COLLAPSE IN ANTARCTICA WILL CAUSE SEA LEVEL RISE OMG OMG!!!

GLOBAL WARMING IN ANTARCTICA | Thongchai Thailand

A third of Antarctic ice shelves risk collapsing due to climate change. ENVIRONMENT 8 April 2021.
By Adam Vaughan. Around a third of the ice shelves holding back huge glaciers in Antarctica are at risk of collapse if the world fails to take sufficient action on climate change, new projections have found. The ice shelves circling the continent are vulnerable to meltwater on their surface causing the ice to crack and disintegrate, a process known as hydrofracturing. Computer modelling by Ella Gilbert at the University of Reading, UK, and Christoph Kittel at the University of Liege, Belgium, showed that if the world warms by 4°C since pre-industrial levels, then 34 per cent of the continent’s ice shelves will have meltwater on their surface, a sign they are at risk of collapse. However, the figure falls to 18 per cent if temperature rises are checked at 2°C. The world is currently on track for a 2.9°C rise but, if implemented, climate plans and net zero goals would cut that to 2.1°C. Warming to 2°C means half the ice shelf area is at risk of collapsing. That is the message: the less the warming the better. Researchers used a much higher resolution climate model than previous research, with grid squares 35 kilometres across rather than hundreds of kilometres across. It also more accurately represents cloud physics, which is vital as estimates of the area at risk of collapse hinge on how much ice loss is replaced by snowfall. The big difference between the 2°C and 4°C rise scenarios stems from melting outweighing increased snowfall in a 4°C warmer world. This study shows melting at the ice shelves’ surface will spreads southwards to parts of the continent where huge reservoirs of inland ice may lose their protective barrier. If that happens, we can expect rapid increases in sea level rise along every coastline of our planet. The research doesn’t put a figure on how much sea level rise could occur if ice shelves collapsed and released the glaciers behind them but provides the gut feeling that sea level rise for 4°C could potentially contribute tens of centimetres if they did collapse putting 10 million people globally at risk of coastal flooding events at high tide. The study’s big advance is using a higher resolution model. But further analysis of how individual ice shelves move is needed to work out which ones will actually collapse.

TRANSLATION: BACK IN THE EEMIAN INTERGLACIAL THE WHOLE OF THE WAIS (WEST ANTARCTIC ICE SHEET) HAD COLLAPSED CAUSING A CATASTROPHIC SEA LEVEL RISE EVENT WITH A RAPID SEA LEVEL RISE OF 6 METERS. THIS EVENT SERVES AS THE MODEL FOR THE EXPECTED ROLE OF THE WAIS IN THE SEA LEVEL RISE ANTICIPATION IN THE HOLOCENE. HOWEVER, THESE INTERGLACIALS ARE VERY DIFFERENT AND NO SUCH ICE MELT AND SEA LEVEL RISE EVENT HAS OCCURRED LATE INTO THE HOLOCENE. YET THEIR OBSESSION WITH THE EEMIAN EVENT HAS CAUSED CLIMATE SCIENCE TO BECOME SIMILARLY OBSESSED WITH AN EXPECTATION OF SOME KIND OF ICE MELT EVENT IN ANTARCTICA AS A SEA LEVEL RISE HORROR OF ANTROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE THAT SHOULD MOTIVATE US TO TAKE CLIMATE ACTION AND MOVE OUR ENERGY INFRASTRUCRUERE FROM FOSSIL FUELS TO RENEWABLES. AS IT TURNS OUT, THE WEST ANTARCTIC ICE SHEET INCLUDING THE ANTARCTIC PENINSULA IS VERY GEOLOGICALLY ACTIVE WITH SIGNIFICANT GEOTHERMAL HEAT FLUX THAT HAS CAUSED A SUFFICIENT NUMBER OF ICE MELT EVENTS THAT HAVE SERVED TO KEEP THE EEMIAN DREAM OF CLIMATE SCIENCE ALIVE AND THAT DREAM CONTINUES TO GOAD CLIMATE SCIENTISTS, IF SCIENTISTS THEY ARE, TO KEEP LOOKING FOR CLUES THAT THEIR EEMIAN DREAM CAN YET COME TRUE IN SOME FORM OR ANOTHER. THE CRUEL REALITY IS THAT THE ICE MELT EVENTS IN ANTARCTICA ARE ALL GEOLOGICAL EVENTS AND NOT ATMOSPHERIC EVENTS AND IN FACT, THERE IS NO GLOBAL WARMING IN ANTARICTICA. WHAT WE SEE HERE IS THE MOST OUTRAGEOUS EXAMPLE OF THE CORRUPTION OF SCIENCE BY ACTIVISM IN CLIMATE SCIENCE.

RELATED POSTS ON THE CLIMATE SCIENCE OBSESSION WITH AN EEMIAN-LIKE WAIS MELT EVENT IN THE HOLOCENE

LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/12/21/eemian/

LINK#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/07/climate-change-threatens-polar-ice/

LINK#3: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/06/27/antarctica/

LINK#4: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/10/16/is-climate-change-melting-glaciers-in-antarctica/

LINK#5: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/01/11/global-warming-dec2020/

LINK#6: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/02/09/antarctica-threatens-florida/

LINK#7: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/08/11/the-ice-shelves-of-antarctica/

LINK#8: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/03/28/holocene-sea-level-rise/

CLIMATE HYSTERIA ARTICLE #4: THE PARIS AGREEMENT CLIMATE ACTION UPDATE!!!

When the Paris Agreement came into force in 2016, it was considered by many to be a step forward in the world’s climate action plan. In the five years that have followed, more and more countries have established carbon neutrality targets. Has it been enough to keep us on track? But first, what is the Paris Agreement? The Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty that lays out a climate action plan. Its goal is to limit global warming to well below 2C and preferably 1.5C, compared to pre-industrial levels. A total of 191 countries have solidified their support with formal approval. To date, signing nations are not close to hitting the goal set five years ago. Scenario Global Mean Temperature Increase by 2100. Pre-industrial baseline 0℃=0℉. Paris Agreement goal range 1.5-2.℃. Government pledges 3C-3.2. Current policies 3.5C. Source(UNEP). Based on policies currently in effect, we are on track for 3.5C beyond the maximum warming goal of 2C. Even if we take government pledges into account, which is the amount by which countries intend to reduce their emissions, we are still far from achieving the Paris Agreement goal. What about the impact of reduced emissions due to COVID-19 lockdowns? The temporary dip is expected to translate into an insignificant 0.01C reduction of global warming. Without significant policy action that pursues a more sustainable recovery, the UNEP projects that we will be on a dangerous trajectory. The pandemic is a warning that we must urgently shift from our destructive development path, which is driving the three planetary crises of climate change, nature loss and pollution according to the UNEP. The WEF agrees and identifies climate action failure as the cause. The Potential Consequences if we fall short of the Paris Agreement is that our planet may see numerous negative effects. Reduced livable land area due to rising sea levels and increased heat stress, low-lying areas and equatorial regions could become uninhabitable. Global warming may increase water and food scarcity. Fisheries and aquafarming face increasing risks from ocean warming and acidification. Climate change will cause 250,000 additional deaths per year between 2030 and 2050. About 30% of plant and animal species could be extinct by 2070 due to increases in maximum annual temperature. At 4C warming by 2080-2099, the U.S. could suffer annual losses amounting to 2% of GDP. Everyone, including investors, can support green initiatives to help avoid these consequences. Investors may consider company ESG ratings when building a portfolio, and invest in businesses that are contributing to a more sustainable future. Both governments and businesses have been pressed to solidify their commitments to green energy.

TRANSLATION: THE PARIS AGREEMENT ISN’T REALLY A CLIMATE ACTION AGREEMENT LIKE THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL THAT WE HAD HOPED FOR BECAUSE THE COLLECTION OF INTENDED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTIONS CONTAINS NO GLOBAL CARBON BUDGET AND NO COMMITMENT BY THE NATIONS TO MEET ASSIGNED ROLES IN THE CARBON BUDGET, AND NO PLAN FOR INSPECTION AND VALIDATION OF THE “INTENTIONS” OF THE PARTICIPATING NATIONS AND SO ALL WE HAVE TO WORK WITH IS A CLIMATE HEROISM AND FEAR MONGERING PLAN TO SEE IF WE CAN GET THE NATIONS TO CARRY OUT EMISSION REDUCTION BY SWITCHING TO RENEWABLES. .

RELATED POSTS ON THE PARIS AGREEMENT AND THE CALL FOR NATION STATE HEROISM TO MAKE UP FOR THE PARIS FAILURE WHICH WE STILL CALL AN AGREEMENT FOR SOME REASON NOT KNOWN TO US.

LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/03/29/a-climate-summit/

LINK#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/04/04/11245/

LINK#3: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/03/05/the-language-of-climate-change-politics/

LINK#4: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/03/01/a-climate-red-alert/

LINK#5: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/05/22/climate-catch22/

LINK#6: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/02/23/renewable-energy-statistics/

LINK#7: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/02/25/net-zero/

BOTTOM LINE: TO GET PEOPLE TO MOVE FROM FOSSIL FUELS TO RENEWABLES WITHOUT EVIDENCE AND WITHOUT A GLOBAL AGREEMENT AMONG NATIONS TO DO SO WE HAVE TO COME UP WITH THE RIGHT KIND OF LINGUISTIC INNOVATIONS.

Monkey Mayhem: Hungry Macaques Run Amok in Thai City After Coronavirus Sees  Tourism Tumble | Buddhistdoor

Submission Page | AAAS Membership

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL EVALUATION OF THE POLICY POSITION ON THE CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUE TAKEN BY THE AMERICAN ASSOCIATION FOR THE ADVANCEMENT OF SCIENCE AND THEIR AAAS JOURNAL.

SCIENCE FICTIONS: THE EPIDEMIC OF FRAUD, BIAS, NEGLIGENCE AND HYPE IN  SCIENCE:RITCHIE, STUART | Asiabooks.com

PART-1: THE STATED POSITION OF THE AAAS BOARD OF DIRECTORS ON THE CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUE

AAAS Reaffirms Statement on Climate Change

LINK TO SOURCE: https://www.aaas.org/resources/aaas-reaffirms-statement-climate-change


The American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) has reaffirmed the position of its Board of Directors and the leaders of 18 respected organizations, who concluded based on multiple lines of scientific evidence that global climate change caused by human activities is now underway, and it is a growing threat to society. “The vast preponderance of evidence, based on years of research conducted by a wide array of different investigators at many institutions, clearly indicates that global climate change is real, it is caused largely by human activities, and the need to take action is urgent,” said Alan I. Leshner, chief executive officer of AAAS and executive publisher of the journal Science. AAAS expressed grave concerns that the illegal release of private emails stolen from the University of East Anglia should not cause policy-makers and the public to become confused about the scientific basis of global climate change. Scientific integrity demands robust, independent peer review, however, and AAAS therefore emphasized that investigations are appropriate whenever significant questions are raised regarding the transparency and rigor of the scientific method, the peer-review process, or the responsibility of individual scientists. The responsible institutions are mounting such investigations. AAAS is not itself an investigative body, Leshner emphasized, but the Association will carefully evaluate the conclusions of appropriate authorities who have been asked to review the emails. Selectively publicized language in messages exchanged over a number of years among several scientists has been interpreted by some to suggest unethical actions such as data manipulation or suppression. “AAAS takes issues of scientific integrity very seriously,” Leshner said. “It is fair and appropriate to pursue answers to any allegations of impropriety. It’s important to remember, though, that the reality of climate change is based on a century of robust and well-validated science.” The AAAS Board of Directors asserted in a statement issued 9 December 2006 that “the scientific evidence is clear: global climate change caused by human activities is occurring now, and it is a growing threat to society.” Clear evidence of climate change is based upon “accumulating data from across the globe” that reveals “a wide array of effects: rapidly melting glaciers, increases in extreme weather, rising sea levels, shifts in species ranges, and more,” the AAAS Board reported. Reliable sensor data show an upturn in average temperatures for at least the past 30 years. The AAAS Board noted that “the pace of change and the evidence of harm have increased markedly over the last five years. The time to control greenhouse gas emissions is now.” AAAS joined the leaders of 17 other leading organizations in signing a letter sent 21 October 2009 to the U.S. Senate, emphasizing based upon rigorous research that human-induced climate change is ongoing and will have broad impacts on society—including the global economy and the environment.

In Russia, a new generation of activists are taking on climate crisis |  openDemocracy

PART-2: CRITICAL COMMENTARY

THE STATED POSITION OF A SCIENTIFIC BODY ON A SUBJECT OF RESEARCH POSTED BY THE AAAS IS A SIGNIFICANT INDICATOR OF BIAS IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH. THE FINDINGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN DECIDED BY THE PEOPLE AT THE TOP. IT REMAINS FOR RESEARCHERS TO ONLY PROVIDE THE RIGHT KIND OF DATA AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS TO VALIDATE KNOWN TRUTHS. THIS KIND OF SCIENCE THAT ACTUALLY CLAIMS ITS VALIDITY BECAUSE IT IS SCIENCE, IS ACTUALLY MORE LIKE RELIGION THAN SCIENCE.

Has Science Become a Religion? - Abdurraheem Green - YouTube

RELATED POST ON BIAS IN CLIMATE SCIENCE: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/04/05/the-null-hypothesis-issue/

Religion vs Genetics: The Battle Between Two Truths | Bruce A Robinson

Null Hypothesis and Alternative Hypothesis

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL EVALUATION OF THE HYPOTHESIS TESTING PROCEDURE IN CLIMATE SCIENCE.

WE SHOW THAT CLIMATE SCIENCE CONTAINS A BIAS FOR THE TRUTH OF THAT WHICH IS TO BE PROVEN AND THAT THEREFORE CLIMATE SCIENCE CANNOT BE CONSIDERED TO BE UNBIASED AND OBJECTIVE SCIENTIFIC INQUIRY.

SPECIFICALLY, IN OBJECTIVE UNBIASED SCIENTIFIC INQUIRY, THAT WHICH IS TO BE PROVEN MUST BE THE ALTERNATE HYPOTHESIS AND ITS NEGATION THEN BECOMES THE NULL HYPOTHESIS. THE UNBIASED DATA COLLECTION MUST THEN PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT EVIDENCE TO REJECT THE NULL IN ORDER TO ACCEPT THE TRUTH OF THAT WHICH IS TO BE PROVEN.

THE TRUTH OF THAT WHICH IS TO BE PROVEN WHEN TAKEN AS THE NULL HYPOTHESIS CONTAINS A BIAS AND IT VIOLATES THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD SUCH THAT THE RESEARCH FINDINGS OF THIS METHODOLOGY CANNOT BE TAKEN AS THE PRODUCT OF OBJECTIVE AND UNBIASED SCIENTIFIC INQUIRY. THE ODD LOGIC IN CLIMATE SCIENCE DESCRIBED AS “THE LESS WE KNOW THE SCARIER IT GETS” DERIVES FROM THIS STATISTICAL ERROR. THE TRUTH OF THAT WHICH IS TO BE PROVEN STANDS AS TRUTH UNTIL PROVEN WRONG.

THIS BIAS IS OFTEN ACKNOWLEDGED AND THEN DEFENDED WITH THE PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE. THE PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE IS USED IN ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH WHERE THIS BIAS IN RESEARCH METHODOLOGY IS NEEDED TO MAKE SURE THAT WE AVOID THE GREATER HORROR OF BEING WRONG ABOUT THE DANGER OF THAT WHICH IS TO BE PROVEN DANGEROUS BECAUSE THE HORROR IS GREATER THAN THE COST OF BEING WRONG ABOUT THE HORROR.

IN THIS CONTEXT, THE CALL FOR THE WORLD TO TAKE COSTLY CLIMATE ACTION CAN BE TRANSLATED AS {YOU MUST DO AS WE SAY JUST IN CASE WE ARE RIGHT}. THE COST OF AVOIDING THE HORROR THAT AWAITS US IF WE ARE RIGHT IS LESS THAN THE COST OF THE HORROR.

THIS LOGIC IS THE NORM IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES WHERE IT IS REFERRED TO AS THE PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE, A METHODOLOGY KNOWN TO FOR ITS CONFIRMATION BIAS.

LINK TO RELATED POST ON THE PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/12/27/superstitious-humans/

The everyday magic of superstition | The Psychologist

THE LANGUAGE OF CLIMATE SCIENCE RESEARCH FINDINGS EXPOSES CONFIRMATION BIAS

RELATED POST#1: NATURE’S METHANE ABUNDANCE. OMG OMG. THE LESS WE KNOW THE SCARIER IT GETS.

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/12/12/methanescare/

CLAIM: Curbing methane could be a powerful tool in our upcoming climate fight against AGW climate change

RESPONSE: That “natural microbe-produced methane” has taken the lead and that “upticks in methane levels are not correlated with human activity” does not imply that “Curbing methane could be a powerful tool in our upcoming climate fight against AGW climate change”. It implies that this is nature at work and not human activity of the industrial economy from which the climate and the planet need to be saved.

Related post on “upticks in methane levels are not correlated with human activity” [LINK] . 

Related post on NOAA: [LINK] 

The everyday magic of superstition | The Psychologist

RELATED POST#2: FISHING FOR CLIMATE CALAMITY: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/05/23/fishing-for-climate-calamity/

CLAIM: CLIMATE CHANGE IS REDUCING THE NUMBER OF FISH IN THE OCEAN

RESPONSE: The eco scare that human activity is killing off the fish in the oceans predates climate change. In the BC days (before-climate), a combination of over-fishing, seafaring, and discharges of plastics and pollution into the oceans by humans were cited (“Sea’s riches running out”, 1977).

In (AC) after-climate era, causes of the fish apocalypse is described in terms of rising ocean temperature and ocean acidification by fossil fuel emissions. As well, the language of fish apocalypse is changed from gradual reduction in numbers to “depletion at alarming rates” and that marine life on earth is “at a breaking point”. There is also a timeline given for when the oceans will become devoid of fish. That will happen in the year 2050. Unless of course we get serious about the Paris Accord, stop using dirty polluting fossil fuels, and save the planet. And the fish.

The everyday magic of superstition | The Psychologist

RELATED POST#3: THE DEARTH OF SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE ONLY ADDS TO THE ALARM

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/05/22/global-warming-science-2007-the-dearth-of-scientific-knowledge-only-adds-to-the-alarm/

CLAIM: Global warming scientists cited the shrinking of the Chorabari Glacier in the eastern Himalayan Mountains as evidence that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels is causing global warming and that global warming in turn is causing Himalayan glaciers to melt. Although the data are insufficient and conflicting, they project that in a hundred years, the glacial loss will affect water supply to a vast region whose rivers get their water from these glaciers. With respect to the absence of sufficient data to support this projection, they propose the odd logic that “the dearth of scientific knowledge only adds to the alarm”.

RESPONSE: An implied invocation of the precautionary principle which implies the odd logic that the less we know the scarier it gets – a clear case of the corruption of science by activism to the point where activism trumps science and leads to the conculsion that the less we know the scarier it gets.

The everyday magic of superstition | The Psychologist

RELATED POST#4: THE LESS WE KNOW THE SCARIER IT GETS

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/11/03/lessweknow/

CLAIM: At current sea level rise forecasts, it was projected that 110 million people will be affected by coastal high tide flooding events by the year 2100 but new improved satellite data for coastal land elevation shows that they could be lower that we had thought and so the number of people affected by high tide flood events at the same rate of sea level rise will be higher, maybe 190 million or somewhere between 140 and 240 million due to large uncertainties in satellite coastal elevation data. A problem with that assessment is that the large uncertainty in coastal land elevation data may mean that we don’t really know what the coastal land elevation is exactly. 

RESPONSE: The large uncertainty in DEM data does not imply “look how high it could be”. It implies that it is not a reliable measurement device and that it does not give us useful information to forecast the number of coastal people affected by sea level rise.

The everyday magic of superstition | The Psychologist

RELATED POST ON CONFIRMATION BIAS AND SUPERSTITION IN CLIMATE SCIENCE

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/03/confirmationbias/

SUMMARY: THE INHERENT SUPERSTITIOUS NATURE OF HUMANS HAS BEEN USED IN THE CREATION OF THE CLIMATE CRISIS AND CLIMATE EMERGENCY OF OUR TIME IN WHICH FOSSIL FUELS, THE PRODUCERS OF FOSSIL FUELS, AND THE CAPITALIST ECONOMY THAT PROFITS FROM FOSSIL FUELS ARE THE WITCHES THAT NEED TO BE BURNED TO FULFILL ACTIVISM NEEDS AGAINST FOSSIL FUELS. CLIMATE SCIENCE MAY HAVE SOME SCIENCE IN IT BUT IT IS BEST UNDERSTOOD AS ANTI FOSSIL FUEL ACTIVISM IN WHICH EXXON AND CAPITALISM ARE THE WITCHES.

SPECIFIC EXAMPLES OF SUPERSTITION AND CONFIRMATION BIAS IN CLIMATE SCIENCE ARE PARTICULARLY EVIDENT IN THE ATTRIBUTION OF BAD WEATHER OR CLIMATE EVENTS OR EVEN FOREST FIRES TO FOSSIL FUELS. OTHER AREAS OF CLIMATE SCIENCE WHERE SUPERSTITION IS EVIDENT ARE IN THE EXTREME FORM OF ATMOSPHERE BIAS IN THE UNDERSTANDING OF ALL CLIMATE AND GEOCHEMISTRY ANOMALIES. THE SPECIFIC FORM OF THIS BIAS IS THE TENDENCY TO EXPLAIN ALL OBSERVED CHANGES IN TERMS OF FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS.

The everyday magic of superstition | The Psychologist

LINK TO THE HOME PAGE OF THIS SITE: https://tambonthongchai.com/

Geological 'Hotspot' Melting Pine Island and Thwaites Glaciers, Not Global  Warming — Plate climatology

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL EVALUATION OF RESEARCH FINDINGS THAT THE PINE ISLAND GLACIER IS UNSTABLE AND HAS REACHED A TIPPING POINT SUCH THAT ITS IMMINENT DEMISE BY CLIMATE CHANGE IMPLIES SEA LEVEL RISE THAT COULD CAUSE CATASTROPHIC CHANGES TO COASTAL REGIONS WORLDWIDE.

PART-1: WHAT THE RESEARCH PAPER SAYS

Rosier, Sebastian HR, et al. “The tipping points and early warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica.” The Cryosphere 15.3 (2021): 1501-1516. Abstract: Mass loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is the main source of uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise, with important implications for coastal regions worldwide. Central to ongoing and future changes is the marine ice sheet instability: Once a critical threshold, or tipping point, is crossed, ice internal dynamics can drive a self-sustaining retreat committing a glacier to irreversible, rapid and substantial ice loss. This process might have already been triggered in the Amundsen Sea region, where Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers dominate the current mass loss from Antarctica, but modelling and observational techniques have not been able to establish this rigorously, leading to divergent views on the future mass loss of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Here, we aim at closing this knowledge gap by conducting a systematic investigation of the stability regime of Pine Island Glacier. To this end we show that early warning indicators in model simulations robustly detect the onset of the marine ice sheet instability. We are thereby able to identify three distinct tipping points in response to increases in ocean-induced melt. The third and final event, triggered by an ocean warming of approximately 1.2 C from the steady-state model configuration, leads to a retreat of the entire glacier that could initiate a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

PART-2: CRITICAL COMMENTRY

(1) THE EEMIAN CONNECTION: In a related post LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/12/21/eemian/ we descirbe the prior interglacial called the Eemian where we note that the Eemian was much warmer than the current interglacial the Holocene. A significant feature of the Eemian Interglacial was that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet had collapsed with a horrific sea level rise consequence. This historical background in the paleo record has inspired climate science to anticipate a similar event in the Holocene as a kind of horrific fear of climate change and a dramatic motivation for climate action that the climate movement needs to push its agenda against fossil fuels and to motivate the change to renewable energy. However, the Eemian passion has not subsided and the continued passion for an Eemian like WAIS event in the Holocene yields research of the kind described above.

(2) WEST ANTARCTICA IS GEOLOGICALLY ACTIVE: In another related post LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/06/27/antarctica/ we describe the relevant geological features of West Antarctica that make it impossible to undrstand ice melt events there purely as atmospheric phenomena. These include the West Antarctic Rift system and its many volcanoes as well as the Marie Byrd Mantle Plume. Both the Thwaites Glacier and the glacier discussed here, the Pine Island Glacier are located in this geological and volcanism hotspot. A detailed description of these geological hotspots is found in the related post linked above and their role in our understanding of ice melt events in the Pine Island glacier is described in the bibliography provided below with the title PART-3B: THE RELEVANT BIBLIOGRAPHY PART 2: PINE ISLAND GLACIER.

kamis04
kamis03

IN VIEW OF THESE RELEVANT GEOLOGICAL FEATURES AND KNOWN GEOTHERMAL FLUX AND ACTIVE VOLCANOES UNDERNEATH THE PINE ISLAND GLACIER, WE PROPOSE THAT IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO UNDERSTAND ICE MELT EVENTS THERE AS ANTHROPOGENIC GOBAL WARMING PHENOMENA. QED.

PART-3A: THE RELEVANT BIBLIOGRAPHY: PART-1: ANTARCTICA

  1. Scambos, Ted A., et al. “The link between climate warming and break-up of ice shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula.” Journal of Glaciology 46.154 (2000): 516-530.  A review of in situ and remote-sensing data covering the ice shelves of the Antarctic Peninsula provides a series of characteristics closely associated with rapid shelf retreat: deeply embayed ice fronts; calving of myriad small elongate bergs in punctuated events; increasing flow speed; and the presence of melt ponds on the ice-shelf surface in the vicinity of the break-ups. As climate has warmed in the Antarctic Peninsula region, melt-season duration and the extent of ponding have increased. Most break-up events have occurred during longer melt seasons, suggesting that meltwater itself, not just warming, is responsible. Regions that show melting without pond formation are relatively unchanged. Melt ponds thus appear to be a robust harbinger of ice-shelf retreat. We use these observations to guide a model of ice-shelf flow and the effects of meltwater. Crevasses present in a region of surface ponding will likely fill to the brim with water. We hypothesize (building on Weertman (1973), Hughes (1983) and Van der Veen (1998)) that crevasse propagation by meltwater is the main mechanism by which ice shelves weaken and retreat. A thermodynamic finite-element model is used to evaluate ice flow and the strain field, and simple extensions of this model are used to investigate crack propagation by meltwater. The model results support the hypothesis.
  2. Convey, P., et al. “The flora of the South Sandwich Islands, with particular reference to the influence of geothermal heating.” Journal of Biogeography 27.6 (2000): 1279-1295.  Data obtained in 1997 are combined with updated records from the only previous survey (in 1964) to provide a baseline description of the flora of the archipelago, which currently includes 1 phanerogam, 38 mosses, 11 liverworts, 5 basidiomycete fungi, 41 lichenised fungi and 16 diatoms with, additionally, several taxa identified only to genus. Major elements of the moss and liverwort floras are composed of South American taxa (32% and 73%, respectively), with a further 45% of mosses having bipolar or cosmopolitan distributions. These two groups show low levels of Antarctic endemicity (11% and 18%, respectively). In contrast, 52% of lichens and 80% of basidiomycete fungi are endemic to the Antarctic. A further 36% of lichens are bipolar/cosmopolitan, with only 5% of South American origin. The flora of the South Sandwich Islands is clearly derived from those of other Antarctic zones. The flora of unheated ground is closely related to that of the maritime Antarctic, although with a very limited number of species represented. That of heated ground contains both maritime and sub‐Antarctic elements, confirming the importance of geothermal heating for successful colonisation of the latter group. The occurrence of several maritime Antarctic species only on heated ground confirms the extreme severity of the archipelago’s climate in comparison with well‐studied sites much further south in this biogeographical zone.
  3. Smith, RI Lewis. “The bryophyte flora of geothermal habitats on Deception Island, Antarctica.” The Journal of the Hattori Botanical Laboratory 97 (2005): 233-248.  Deception Island is one of the most volcanically active sites south of 60°S. Between 1967 and 1970 three major eruptions devastated large expanses of the landscape and its predominantly cryptogamic vegetation. Since 1970 extensive recolonisation has occurred on the more stable surfaces. Unheated ground supports several bryophyte and lichen communities typical of much of the maritime Antarctic, but geothermal habitats possess remarkable associations of bryophytes, many of the species being unknown or very rare elsewhere in the Antarctic. Nine geothermal sites were located and their vegetation investigated in detail. Communities associated with more transient sites have disappeared when the geothermal activity ceased. Mosses and liverworts occur to within a few centimetres of fumarole vents where temperatures reach 90-95℃, while temperatures within adjacent moss turf can reach 35-50℃ or more and remain consistently between 25 and 45℃. Most of the bryoflora has a Patagonian-Fuegian provenance and it is presumed that, unlike most species, the thermophiles are not pre-adapted to the Antarctic environment, being able to colonise only where the warm and humid conditions prevail.
  4. Vieira, Gonçalo, et al. “Geomorphological observations of permafrost and ground-ice degradation on Deception and Livingston Islands, Maritime Antarctica.” (2008): 1939-1844. The Antarctic Peninsula is experiencing one of the fastest increases in mean annual air temperatures (ca. 2.5oC in the last 50 years) on Earth. If the observed warming trend continues as indicated by climate models, the region could suffer widespread permafrost degradation. This paper presents field observations of geomorphological features linked to permafrost and ground-ice degradation at two study areas: northwest Hurd Peninsula (Livingston Island) and Deception Island along the Antarctic Peninsula. These observations include thermokarst features, debris flows, active-layer detachment slides, and rockfalls. The processes observed may be linked not only to an increase in temperature, but also to increased rainfall, which can trigger debris flows and other processes. On Deception Island some thermokarst (holes in the ground produced by the selective melting of permafrost)  features may be related to anomalous geothermal heat flux from volcanic activity.
  5. Mulvaney, Robert, et al. “Recent Antarctic Peninsula warming relative to Holocene climate and ice-shelf history.” Nature 489.7414 (2012): 141-144.  Rapid warming over the past 50 years on the Antarctic Peninsula is associated with the collapse of a number of ice shelves and accelerating glacier mass loss1,2,3,4,5,6,7. In contrast, warming has been comparatively modest over West Antarctica and significant changes have not been observed over most of East Antarctica8,9, suggesting that the ice-core palaeoclimate records available from these areas may not be representative of the climate history of the Antarctic Peninsula. Here we show that the Antarctic Peninsula experienced an early-Holocene warm period followed by stable temperatures, from about 9,200 to 2,500 years ago, that were similar to modern-day levels. Our temperature estimates are based on an ice-core record of deuterium variations from James Ross Island, off the northeastern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula. We find that the late-Holocene development of ice shelves near James Ross Island was coincident with pronounced cooling from 2,500 to 600 years ago. This cooling was part of a millennial-scale climate excursion with opposing anomalies on the eastern and western sides of the Antarctic Peninsula. Although warming of the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula began around 600 years ago, the high rate of warming over the past century is unusual (but not unprecedented) in the context of natural climate variability over the past two millennia. The connection shown here between past temperature and ice-shelf stability suggests that warming for several centuries rendered ice shelves on the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula vulnerable to collapse. Continued warming to temperatures that now exceed the stable conditions of most of the Holocene epoch is likely to cause ice-shelf instability to encroach farther southward along the Antarctic Peninsula.
  6. Fraser, Ceridwen I., et al. “Geothermal activity helps life survive glacial cycles.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111.15 (2014): 5634-5639.  The evolution and maintenance of diversity through cycles of past climate change have hinged largely on the availability of refugia (places where life can survive through a period of unfavorable conditions such as glaciation). Geothermal refugia may have been particularly important for survival through past glaciations. Our spatial modeling of Antarctic biodiversity indicates that some terrestrial groups likely survived throughout intense glacial cycles on ice-free land or in sub-ice caves associated with areas of geothermal activity, from which recolonization of the rest of the continent took place. These results provide unexpected insights into the responses of various species to past climate change and the importance of geothermal regions in promoting biodiversity. Furthermore, they indicate the likely locations of biodiversity “hotspots” in Antarctica, suggesting a critical focus for future conservation efforts.
  7. An, Meijian, et al. “Temperature, lithosphere‐asthenosphere boundary, and heat flux beneath the Antarctic Plate inferred from seismic velocities.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 120.12 (2015): 8720-8742.  We estimate the upper mantle temperature of the Antarctic Plate based on the thermoelastic properties of mantle minerals and S velocities using a new 3‐D shear velocity model, AN1‐S. Crustal temperatures and surface heat fluxes are then calculated from the upper mantle temperature assuming steady state thermal conduction. The temperature at the top of the asthenosphere beneath the oceanic region and West Antarctica is higher than the dry mantle solidus, indicating the presence of melt. From the temperature values, we generate depth maps of the lithosphere‐asthenosphere boundary and the Curie temperature isotherm. The maps show that East Antarctica has a thick lithosphere similar to that of other stable cratons, with the thickest lithosphere (~250 km) between Domes A and C. The thin crust and lithosphere beneath West Antarctica are similar to those of modern subduction‐related rift systems in East Asia. A cold region beneath the Antarctic Peninsula is similar in spatial extent to that of a flat‐subducted slab beneath the southern Andes, indicating a possible remnant of the Phoenix Plate, which was subducted prior to 10 Ma. The oceanic lithosphere generally thickens with increasing age, and the age‐thickness correlation depends on the spreading rate of the ridge that formed the lithosphere. Significant flattening of the age‐thickness curves is not observed for the mature oceanic lithosphere of the Antarctic Plate.
  8. Dziadek, Ricarda, et al. “Geothermal heat flux in the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica: New insights from temperature measurements, depth to the bottom of the magnetic source estimation, and thermal modeling.” Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems 18.7 (2017): 2657-2672[FULL TEXT]  Focused research on the Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, which drain the West Antarctic Ice Shelf (WAIS) into the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE), revealed strong signs of instability in recent decades that result from variety of reasons, such as inflow of warmer ocean currents and reverse bedrock topography, and has been established as the Marine Ice Sheet Instability hypothesis. Geothermal heat flux (GHF) is a poorly constrained parameter in Antarctica and suspected to affect basal conditions of ice sheets, i.e., basal melting and subglacial hydrology. Thermomechanical models demonstrate the influential boundary condition of geothermal heat flux for (paleo) ice sheet stability. Due to a complex tectonic and magmatic history of West Antarctica, the region is suspected to exhibit strong heterogeneous geothermal heat flux variations. We present an approach to investigate ranges of realistic heat fluxes in the ASE by different methods, discuss direct observations, and 3‐D numerical models that incorporate boundary conditions derived from various geophysical studies, including our new Depth to the Bottom of the Magnetic Source (DBMS) estimates. Our in situ temperature measurements at 26 sites in the ASE more than triples the number of direct GHF observations in West Antarctica. We demonstrate by our numerical 3‐D models that GHF spatially varies from 68 up to 110 mW m−2.
  9. Martos, Yasmina M., et al. “Heat flux distribution of Antarctica unveiled.” Geophysical Research Letters 44.22 (2017): 11-417.  [FULL TEXT]  Antarctica is the largest reservoir of ice on Earth. Understanding its ice sheet dynamics is crucial to unraveling past global climate change and making robust climatic and sea level predictions. Of the basic parameters that shape and control ice flow, the most poorly known is geothermal heat flux. Direct observations of heat flux are difficult to obtain in Antarctica, and until now continent‐wide heat flux maps have only been derived from low‐resolution satellite magnetic and seismological data. We present a high‐resolution heat flux map and associated uncertainty derived from spectral analysis of the most advanced continental compilation of airborne magnetic data. Small‐scale spatial variability and features consistent with known geology are better reproduced than in previous models, between 36% and 50%. Our high‐resolution heat flux map and its uncertainty distribution provide an important new boundary condition to be used in studies on future subglacial hydrology, ice sheet dynamics, and sea level change.
  10. Burton‐Johnson, Alex, et al. “A new heat flux model for the Antarctic Peninsula incorporating spatially variable upper crustal radiogenic heat production.” Geophysical Research Letters 44.11 (2017): 5436-5446.  A new method for modeling heat flux shows that the upper crust contributes up to 70% of the Antarctic Peninsula’s subglacial heat flux and that heat flux values are more variable at smaller spatial resolutions than geophysical methods can resolve. Results indicate a higher heat flux on the east and south of the Peninsula (mean 81 mW m−2) where silicic rocks predominate, than on the west and north (mean 67 mW m−2) where volcanic arc and quartzose sediments are dominant. While the data supports the contribution of heat‐producing element‐enriched granitic rocks to high heat flux values, sedimentary rocks can be of comparative importance dependent on their provenance and petrography. Models of subglacial heat flux must utilize a heterogeneous upper crust with variable radioactive heat production if they are to accurately predict basal conditions of the ice sheet. Our new methodology and data set facilitate improved numerical model simulations of ice sheet dynamics.  
  11. Schroeder, Dustin M., et al. “Evidence for elevated and spatially variable geothermal flux beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111.25 (2014): 9070-9072.  SIGNIFICANCE: Thwaites Glacier is one of the West Antarctica’s most prominent, rapidly evolving, and potentially unstable contributors to global sea level rise. Uncertainty in the amount and spatial pattern of geothermal flux and melting beneath this glacier is a major limitation in predicting its future behavior and sea level contribution. In this paper, a combination of radar sounding and subglacial water routing is used to show that large areas at the base of Thwaites Glacier are actively melting in response to geothermal flux consistent with rift-associated magma migration and volcanism. This supports the hypothesis that heterogeneous geothermal flux and local magmatic processes could be critical factors in determining the future behavior of the West Antarctic Ice SheetABSTRACT: Heterogeneous hydrologic, lithologic, and geologic basal boundary conditions can exert strong control on the evolution, stability, and sea level contribution of marine ice sheets. Geothermal flux is one of the most dynamically critical ice sheet boundary conditions but is extremely difficult to constrain at the scale required to understand and predict the behavior of rapidly changing glaciers. This lack of observational constraint on geothermal flux is particularly problematic for the glacier catchments of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet within the low topography of the West Antarctic Rift System where geothermal fluxes are expected to be high, heterogeneous, and possibly transient. We use airborne radar sounding data with a subglacial water routing model to estimate the distribution of basal melting and geothermal flux beneath Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica. We show that the Thwaites Glacier catchment has a minimum average geothermal flux of ∼114 ± 10 mW/m2 with areas of high flux exceeding 200 mW/m2 consistent with hypothesized rift-associated magmatic migration and volcanism. These areas of highest geothermal flux include the westernmost tributary of Thwaites Glacier adjacent to the subaerial Mount Takahe volcano and the upper reaches of the central tributary near the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide ice core drilling site.  [LINK TO FULL TEXT] 

LEFT: Bed topography of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and Amundsen Sea Embayment. MIDDLE: Subglacial hydrologic potential (13) for a distributed water system in the upstream region of the Thwaites Glacier catchment (black boundary). RIGHT:  Collection of subglacial water routing models that best fit the observed radar bed echo strength distribution

Fig. 3.

Minimum geothermal flux and basal melt values required to reproduce the observed relative bed echo strengths (Fig. 2A) with subglacial water routing models (1327) (Fig. 1C) using the total melt water from an ice sheet model for the upstream portion of the Thwaites Glacier catchment (9). The minimum average inferred flux is ∼114 ± 10 mW/m2. High-flux areas exceed 200 mW/m2. A indicates the Mount Takahe volcano. B indicates the WAIS Divide ice core drilling site. High-melt areas are indicated by C in the westernmost tributary, D adjacent to the Crary mountains, and E in the upper portion of the central tributaries (8). Triangles show areas where radar-inferred melt anomalies exceed those generated by ice dynamics (friction and advection) (9) and inferred geothermal flux exceeds 150 mW/m2 (dark magenta) and 200 mW/m2 (light magenta). Bed topography (12) contour interval for Antarctica is 180 m. The upstream region of the Thwaites Glacier catchment contains several areas of strong relative bed echoes indicating larger quantities of subglacial water. The distribution of melt and geothermal flux includes several regions with high melt that are closely related to rift structure and associated volcanism.  These include the entire westernmost tributary (Fig. 3, location C) that flanks Mount Takahe (Fig. 3, location A), a subaerial volcano active in the Quaternary (2829), and several high-flux areas across the catchment adjacent to topographic features that are hypothesized to be volcanic in origin as seen in the image above and as described in Bahrendt 1998 and Bahrendt 2013, and Joughin 2009. We also observe high geothermal flux in the upper reaches of the central tributaries that are relatively close to the site of the WAIS Divide ice core where unexpectedly high melt and geothermal flux have been estimated. We estimate a minimum average geothermal flux value of about 114 mW/m2 with a notional uncertainty of about 10 mW/m2 for the Thwaites Glacier catchment with areas exceeding 200 mW/m2. These values are likely underestimates due to the low uniform geothermal flux value used in the ice sheet model and the compensating effect of enhanced vertical advection of cold shallow ice in high-melt areas. Note that this latter effect also predicts a subtle gradient of underestimated flux from the interior to the trunk as fast flow and associated frictional melting increases.

12. Behrendt, John C., et al. “Aeromagnetic evidence for a volcanic caldera  complex beneath the divide of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.” Geophysical Research Letters 25.23 (1998): 4385-4388. A 1995–96 aeromagnetic survey over part of the Sinuous Ridge (SR) beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) divide shows a 70‐km diameter circular pattern of 400–1200‐nT anomalies suggesting one of the largest volcanic caldera complexes on earth. Radar‐ice‐sounding (RIS) shows the northern part of this pattern overlies the SR, and extends south over the Bentley Subglacial Trench (BST). Modeled sources of all but one the caldera anomalies are at the base of <1–2‐km thick ice and their volcanic edifices have been glacially removed. The exception is a 700‐m high, 15‐km wide volcano” producing an 800‐nT anomaly over the BST. Intrusion of this volcano beneath 3 km of ice probably resulted in pillow basalt rather than easily removed hyaloclastite erupted beneath thinner ice. The background area (−300 to −500‐nT) surrounding the caldera is possibly caused by a shallow Curie isotherm. We suggest uplift of the SR forced the advance of the WAIS

13. Behrendt, John C. “The aeromagnetic method as a tool to identify Cenozoic magmatism in the West Antarctic Rift System beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet—A review; Thiel subglacial volcano as possible source of the ash layer in the WAISCORE.” Tectonophysics 585 (2013): 124-136.  The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) sits on the volcanically active West Antarctic Rift System (WARS). The aeromagnetic method has been the most useful geophysical tool for identification of subglacial volcanic rocks, since 1959–64 surveys, particularly combined with 1978 radar ice-sounding. The unique 1991–97 Central West Antarctica (CWA) aerogeophysical survey covering 354,000 km2 over the WAIS, (5-km line-spaced, orthogonal lines of aeromagnetic, radar ice-sounding, and aerogravity measurements), still provides invaluable information on subglacial volcanic rocks, particularly combined with the older aeromagnetic profiles. These data indicate numerous 100–>1000 nT, 5–50-km width, shallow-source, magnetic anomalies over an area greater than 1.2 × 106 km2, mostly from subglacial volcanic sources. I interpreted the CWA anomalies as defining about 1000 “volcanic centers” requiring high remanent normal magnetizations in the present field direction. About 400 anomaly sources correlate with bed topography. At least 80% of these sources have less than 200 m relief at the WAIS bed. They appear modified by moving ice, requiring a younger age than the WAIS (about 25 Ma). Exposed volcanoes in the WARS are < 34 Ma, but at least four are active. If a few buried volcanic centers are active, subglacial volcanism may well affect the WAIS regime. Aero-geo-physical data (Blankenship et al., 1993, Mt. Casertz; Corr and Vaughan, 2008, near Hudson Mts.) indicated active subglacial volcanism. Magnetic data indicate a caldera and a surrounding “low” in the WAISCORE vicinity possibly the result of a shallow Curie isotherm. High heat flow reported from temperature logging in the WAISCORE (Conway et al., 2011; Clow, personal communication.) and a volcanic ash layer (Dunbar, 2012) are consistent with this interpretation. A subaerially erupted subglacial volcano, (Mt Thiel), about 100 km distant, may be the ash source. Aeromagnetic method most useful to study subglacial volcanic rocks beneath WAIS.  The Central West Antarctica aerogeophysical survey is a unique Antarctic data set.  Data indicate ~ 1000 magnetic anomalies mostly from subglacial volcanic eruptions. 

14. Joughin, Ian, et al. “Basal conditions for Pine Island and Thwaites Glaciers, West Antarctica, determined using satellite and airborne data.” Journal of Glaciology 55.190 (2009): 245-257.  We use models constrained by remotely sensed data from Pine Island and Thwaites Glaciers, West Antarctica, to infer basal properties that are difficult to observe directly. The results indicate strong basal melting in areas upstream of the grounding lines of both glaciers, where the ice flow is fast and the basal shear stress is large. Farther inland, we find that both glaciers have ‘mixed’ bed conditions, with extensive areas of both bedrock and weak till. In particular, there are weak areas along much of Pine Island Glacier’s main trunk that could prove unstable if it retreats past the band of strong bed just above its current grounding line. In agreement with earlier studies, our forward ice-stream model shows a strong sensitivity to small perturbations in the grounding line position. These results also reveal a large sensitivity to the assumed bed (sliding or deforming) model, with non-linear sliding laws producing substantially greater dynamic response than earlier simulations that assume a linear-viscous till rheology. Finally, comparison indicates that our results using a plastic bed are compatible with the limited observational constraints and theoretical work that suggests an upper bound exists on maximum basal shear stress.

PART-3B: THE RELEVANT BIBLIOGRAPHY PART 2: PINE ISLAND GLACIER

Loose, Brice, et al. “Evidence of an active volcanic heat source beneath the Pine Island Glacier.” Nature communications 9.1 (2018): 1-9.

Tectonic landforms reveal that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) lies atop a major volcanic rift system. However, identifying subglacial volcanism is challenging. Here we show geochemical evidence of a volcanic heat source upstream of the fast-melting Pine Island Ice Shelf, documented by seawater helium isotope ratios at the front of the Ice Shelf cavity. The localization of mantle helium to glacial meltwater reveals that volcanic heat induces melt beneath the grounded glacier and feeds the subglacial hydrological network crossing the grounding line. The observed transport of mantle helium out of the Ice Shelf cavity indicates that volcanic heat is supplied to the grounded glacier at a rate of ~ 2500 ± 1700 MW, which is ca. half as large as the active Grimsvötn volcano on Iceland. Our finding of a substantial volcanic heat source beneath a major WAIS glacier highlights the need to understand subglacial volcanism, its hydrologic interaction with the marine margins, and its potential role in the future stability of the WAIS.

Iverson, Nels A., et al. “The first physical evidence of subglacial volcanism under the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.” Scientific reports 7.1 (2017): 1-8. The West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) is highly vulnerable to collapsing because of increased ocean and surface temperatures. New evidence from ice core tephra shows that subglacial volcanism can breach the surface of the ice sheet and may pose a great threat to WAIS stability. Micro-CT analyses on englacial ice core tephra along with detailed shard morphology characterization and geochemical analysis suggest that two tephra layers were derived from subglacial to emergent volcanism that erupted through the WAIS. These tephra were erupted though the center of the ice sheet, deposited near WAIS Divide and preserved in the WDC06A ice core. The sources of these tephra layers were likely to be nearby subglacial volcanoes, Mt. Resnik, Mt. Thiel, and/or Mt. Casertz. A widespread increase in ice loss from WAIS could trigger positive feedback by decreasing ice mass and increasing decompression melting under the WAIS, increasing volcanism. Both tephra were erupted during the last glacial period and a widespread increase in subglacial volcanism in the future could have a considerable effect on the stability of the WAIS and resulting sea level rise.

Dziadek, Ricarda, Karsten Gohl, and Norbert Kaul. “Elevated geothermal surface heat flow in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica.” Earth and Planetary Science Letters 506 (2019): 530-539.

The thermal state of polar continental crust plays a crucial role for understanding the stability and thickness of large ice sheets, the visco-elastic response of the solid Earth due to unloading when large ice caps melt and, in turn, the accuracy of future sea-level rise prediction. Various studies demonstrate the need for precise measurements and estimation of geothermal heat flow (GHF) in Antarctica for better constrained boundary conditions to enhance the ice sheet model performance. This study provides ground-truth for regional indirect GHF estimates in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, which is part of the West Antarctic Rift System, by presenting in situ temperature measurements in continental shelf sediments. Our results show regionally elevated and heterogeneous GHF (mean of 65 mW m−2) in the Amundsen Sea Embayment. Considering thermal blanketing effects, induced by inflow of warmer water and sedimentary processes, the estimated GHF ranges between 65 mW m−2 and 95 mW m−2.

Seroussi, Helene, et al. “Influence of a West Antarctic mantle plume on ice sheet basal conditions.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 122.9 (2017): 7127-7155.

The possibility that a deep mantle plume manifests Pliocene and Quaternary volcanism and potential elevated heat flux in West Antarctica has been studied for more than 30 years. Recent seismic images support the plume hypothesis as the cause of Marie Byrd Land (MBL) volcanism and geophysical structure. Mantle plumes may more than double the geothermal heat flux above nominal continental values. A dearth of in situ ice sheet basal data exists that samples the heat flux. Consequently, we examine a realistic distribution of heat flux associated with a possible late Cenozoic mantle plume in West Antarctica and explore its impact on thermal and melt conditions at the ice sheet base. We use a simple analytical mantle plume parameterization to produce geothermal heat flux at the base of the ice sheet. The three‐dimensional ice flow model includes an enthalpy framework and full‐Stokes stress balance. As both the putative plume location and extent are uncertain, we perform broadly scoped experiments to characterize the impact of the plume on geothermal heat flux and ice sheet basal conditions. The experiments show that mantle plumes have an important local impact on the ice sheet, with basal melting rates reaching several centimeters per year directly above the hotspot. In order to be consistent with observations of basal hydrology in MBL, the upper bound on the plume‐derived geothermal heat flux is 150 mW/m2. In contrast, the active lake system of the lower part of Whillans Ice Stream suggests a widespread anomalous mantle heat flux, linked to a rift source.

Volcano climate SHOCK: Heat source under Antarctica could be melting giant  ice caps | Science | News | Express.co.uk

Pope Francis waves during his weekly general audience in the Paul VI hall at the Vatican on October 14, 2020.

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF AN ONLINE ARTICLE BY CATHERINE CLIFFORD ABOUT SOMETHING CALLED “CLIMATE MIGRATION” AND THE CLIMATE ACTIVISM OF THE VATICAN IN THIS ISSUE.

LINK TO SOURCE: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/01/pope-francis-on-climate-migration-many-are-being-devoured.html

PART-1: WHAT THE SOURCE ARTICLE SAYS

Pope Francis brings spotlight to climate migration: When we look, what do we see? Many are being devoured in conditions that make it impossible to survive. Forced to abandon fields and shorelines, homes and villages, people flee in haste carrying just a few souvenirs and treasures, scraps of their culture and heritage,” the pope wrote in a statement released Tuesday. “They set out in hope, meaning to restart their lives in a place of safety. But where they mostly end up are dangerously overcrowded slums or makeshift settlements, waiting on fate.” The pope published his call for collective focus on migrants forced to leave their homes because of climate change’s effects on their homelands as a preface to a booklet titled, “Pastoral Orientations on Climate Displaced People,” which includes recommendations for how to address the crisis. Reasons people around the world may have to leave their homes due to climate change include changes in rainfall, changes in flooding patterns or rising sea levels, to name a few. A report from the World Bank predicted more than 140 million people could move within their country’s borders by 2050 due to climate change. The climate migrants are in addition to other migrants who are forced to move for political and social reasons, the report says. In February, President Joe Biden ordered an interagency report on the current and future implications of climate migration. The first step toward addressing the issue is to see those who are suffering and to not look away, Francis writes. “Where it starts is with each one’s seeing, yes, mine and yours,” the pope writes. The response people have to those who are suffering the effects of climate change may be dependent on how close or far it is from their doorstep, but that is insufficient, the pope says. “Whether it seems remote or whether we feel it close to home — depends on our taking the trouble to see the suffering that each story entails in order ‘to become painfully aware, to dare to turn what is happening … into our own personal suffering and thus to discover what each of us can do about it’ (Laudato si’ 19),” he writes, citing his own previous missive on the importance of taking care of the earth, “our common home.” In his written statement, the pope affirms his stance that climate change is the result of human behavior, a fact which NASA supported with “direct evidence” in a report released on March 25, but which some other religious groups have disavowed. (About 80% of Americans now believe that human action “has at least partly” been causing global warming, according to a survey published in August by the Washington DC-based nonprofit, Resources for the Future.) “When people are driven out because their local environment has become uninhabitable, it might look like a process of nature, something inevitable,” the pope writes. “Yet the deteriorating climate is very often the result of poor choices and destructive activity, of selfishness and neglect, that set humankind at odds with creation, our common home.”

Climate Migration: A Growing Global Crisis – Climate Institute

PART-2: CRITICAL COMMENTARY

#1: Why is it necessary to relate migration to climate change for the victims to receive our pity, assistance, and blessings? For example, the relative dessication of Lake Chad over the years has been a major driver of migration. The likely cause is water removal for irrigation but it can also be argued that the dessication is natural or that global warming had something to do with it. So should we help these people only if it can be shown that their plight is an impact of cimate change and not otherwise? This kind of policy can and does create a bias for such attribution and thereby makes these attributions even less credible than they are.

#2: The use of poor countries like Tuvalu and Bangladesh by climate activists to make a case for climate action is harmful and cruel because of its negative effects on the country’s economic well being. The use of the poor and the third world in this way to sell the climate agenda is racist and a continuation of the colonialist view that the Global South must ultimately serve the needs of the Global North and right now what the Global North needs is to sell the climate agenda and they need pitiful third world victims for that purpose.

#3: In related posts on this site we show that post hoc attributions of weather extremes such as storms, floods, dessication, heatwaves, and wildfires contain fatal methodological flaws that derive from confirmation bias and violate the internal climate variability issue in climate science: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/06/29/diffenbaugh-2017-extreme-weather-of-climate-change/ . This kind of bias is encouraged and made worse by the need for attribution to climate change for the migrants to receive our care and blessings.

#4: If migration is a cruelty imposed on the poor and if they need our help we should help them and not insist that the cause of their plight must be climate for us to care and to help. As seen in the bibliography below, this kind of weirdness does not show that we care about these distressed people but only that the fake love and caring is motivated by climate activism.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THIS: IF MIGRATION IS A HARDSHIP THAT REQUIRES LOVE AND CARING AND ASSISTANCE, THIS KIND HUMANE RESPONSE SHOULD NOT BE MADE CONTINGENT ON ATTRIBUTION OF THEIR PLIGHT TO CLIMATE CHANGE. CONVERSELY, THE NEED FOR SUCH ATTRIBUTION EXPOSES THE LOVE AND CARING BEING SHOWN AS FAKE AND THAT THE MIGRANTS ARE BEING USED TO SELL THE CLIMATE AGENDA.

Climate Migration: A Growing Global Crisis – Climate Institute

BIBLIOGRAPHY OF RESEARCH IN CLIMATE MIGRATION

  1. Hartmann, Betsy. “Rethinking climate refugees and climate conflict: Rhetoric, reality and the politics of policy discourse.” Journal of International Development: The Journal of the Development Studies Association 22.2 (2010): 233-246. This paper critically examines the perceived threat of ‘climate refugees’ and ‘climate conflict’. It locates the ideological roots of these concepts in development theories and policy narratives about demographically induced migration, environmental refugees and environmental security. While alarmist rhetoric around climate refugees and conflict has been deployed by a variety of actors, including U.N. agencies, development NGOs, national governments, security pundits and popular media, the paper concentrates on its strategic use by U.S. defence interests. It raises the question of how the portrayal of climate change as a security threat could further militarise the provision of development assistance and distort climate policy.
  2. Farbotko, Carol, and Heather Lazrus. “The first climate refugees? Contesting global narratives of climate change in Tuvalu.” Global Environmental Change 22.2 (2012): 382-390. Climate change effects such as sea-level rise are almost certain. What these outcomes mean for different populations, however, is far less certain. Climate change is both a narrative and material phenomenon. In so being, understanding climate change requires broad conceptualisations that incorporate multiple voices and recognise the agency of vulnerable populations. In climate change discourse, climate mobility is often characterised as the production of ‘refugees’, with a tendency to discount long histories of ordinary mobility among affected populations. The case of Tuvalu in the Pacific juxtaposes migration as everyday practice with climate refugee narratives. This climate-exposed population is being problematically positioned to speak for an entire planet under threat. Tuvaluans are being used as the immediate evidence of displacement that the climate change crisis narrative seems to require. Those identified as imminent climate refugees are being held up like ventriloquists to present a particular (western) ‘crisis of nature’. Yet Tuvaluan conceptions of climate challenges and mobility practices show that more inclusive sets of concepts and tools are needed to equitably and effectively approach and characterise population mobility. Perspectives of climate-vulnerable populations are needed in adaptation planning. ► Everyday practices of migration conflict with climate refugee subjectivities. Mobility can be a source of resilience for climate vulnerable populations.
  3. Bettini, Giovanni. “Climate barbarians at the gate? A critique of apocalyptic narratives on ‘climate refugees’.” Geoforum 45 (2013): 63-72. Climate-induced migration, and particularly the issue of climate refugees, is subject to growing attention in global climate governance. The debate on the topic sees the convergence of conflicting discourses (ranging from those of conservative European governments to southern NGOs) onto apocalyptic narratives that forecast massive, abrupt and unavoidable flows of climate refugees. Such dystopian narratives, either framed within humanitarian or ‘national security’ agendas, relegate the concerned populations to the status of victims (either to protect or to fear). This article, applying elements of poststructuralist discourse theory, analyzes the narratives via a set of influential reports on climate-induced migration and argues that apocalyptic narratives on climate refugees, although not totalizing or uncontested, represent a case of the depoliticization of global climate governance. The convergence into such narratives favors the drive towards a post-political discursive configuration, which, by supplanting politics with governance, leaves underlying power relations untouched and (re)produces present forms of representational and material marginalization. It therefore argues that such narratives, although often employed with the aim of attracting attention to a pressing issue, are detrimental for an emancipatory approach to climate change. {I analyzed a set of influential texts on climate-induced migration and employed poststructuralist discourse theory and political ecology to highlight how competing discourses converge onto apocalyptic narratives. Such convergence, centered on ‘climate refugees’, facilitates depoliticization. I argue that such narratives are detrimental to radical/emancipatory climate politics.}
  4. Farbotko, Carol. “Wishful sinking: disappearing islands, climate refugees and cosmopolitan experimentation.” Asia Pacific Viewpoint 51.1 (2010): 47-60. Disappearing islands and climate refugees have become signifiers of the scale and urgency of uneven impacts of climate change. This paper offers a critical account of how sea level rise debates reverberate around Western mythologies of island laboratories. I argue that representations of low‐lying Oceania islands as experimental spaces burden these sites with providing proof of a global climate change crisis. The emergence of Tuvalu as a climate change ‘canary’ has inscribed its islands as a location where developed world anxieties about global climate change are articulated. As Tuvalu islands and Tuvaluan bodies become sites to concretize climate science’s statistical abstractions, they can enforce an eco‐colonial gaze on Tuvalu and its inhabitants. Expressions of ‘wishful sinking’ create a problematic moral geography in some prominent environmentalist narratives: only after they disappear are the islands useful as an absolute truth of the urgency of climate change, and thus a prompt to save the rest of the planet.
Climate Migration: A Growing Global Crisis – Climate Institute

ENVIRONMENTAL MIGRATION DATA PROVIDED BY THE MIGRATION DATA PORTAL: LINK TO SOURCE: https://migrationdataportal.org/themes/environmental_migration

At the end of 2019, around 5.1 million people in 95 countries and territories were living in displacement as a result of disasters that happened not only in 2019, but also in previous years. (IDMC, 2020a). The countries with the highest number of internally displaced persons were Afghanistan (1.2 million); India (590,000); Ethiopia (390,000), Philippines (364,000) and Sudan (272,000) (ibid.). 

In the first half of 2020 alone, disasters displaced 9.8 million people and remained the leading trigger of new internal displacements globally (IDMC, 2020b). Five countries accounted for nearly 75 per cent of the new internal displacements due to disasters in the first half of 2020: India (2.7 million), Bangladesh (2.5 million), Philippines (811,000), China (791,000) and Somalia (514,000) (ibid.). In 2019, nearly 2,000 disasters triggered 24.9 million new internal displacements across 140 countries and territories; this is the highest figure recorded since 2012 and three times the number of displacements caused by conflict and violence (IDMC, 2020a) Most of the disaster displacements were the result of tropical storms and monsoon rains in South Asia and East Asia and Pacific; four countries accounted for more than 17 million new internal displacements due to disaster:  India (5 million), the Philippines (4.1 million), Bangladesh (4.1 million), and China (4 million) (ibid.).

While the majority of mobility in the context of environmental and climate change more generally, including disaster displacement, occurs within the borders of countries, some people are forced to move abroad. Global data on cross-border movement in the context of disasters are, however, limited, with only a few notable cases being examined so far (Nansen Initiative, 2015; Ionesco, Mokhnacheva and Gemenne, 2017). In some cases, official sources on humanitarian visas by countries such as the United States (US), Brazil and Argentina for Haitians can be used.

Slow-onset processes such as droughts or sea level rise also increasingly affect people’s mobility worldwide. Though specific data are not available, case studies are highlighted by existing research, for example: Foresight, 2011Piguet and Laczko, 2014Ionesco, Mokhnacheva and Gemenne, 2017.

The relocation of communities in the context of environmental and climate change is also increasingly implemented by governments (for a summary of recent relocation programmes see Ionesco, Mokhnacheva and Gemenne, 2016Benton, 2017 and Georgetown University, UNHCR and IOM, 2017). For instance, tens of thousands of people have been relocated in Haiti (Pierre, 2015) and in Viet Nam (UN Viet Nam, 2014Chun 2014Entzinger and Scholten, 2015); hundreds of thousands in Ethiopia (Foresight, 2011: 177); about a million in the Philippines (Ranque and Quetulio-Navarra, 2015Thomas, 2015Brookings and UNHCR, 2015: 3-4) and several millions in China (Foresight, 2011: 177).

PART-3: CAUSES OF MIGRATION LISTED IN THE WORLD MIGRATION REPORTS OF THE IOM (WMR)

LINK TO SOURCE DOCUMENT: https://publications.iom.int/system/files/pdf/wmr_2020.pdf

AN EXAMPLE OF CLIMATE REFUGEE ACTIVISM ON YOUTUBE



  • chaamjamal: Thank you for your input
  • Ruben Leon: When your mind is made up you ignore the data and try to justify the bias you acquired as a juvenile and never questioned. The fact that the Antar
  • chaamjamal: Thank you for raising these interesting points. We live in strange times. Some day we may figure this out.