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Archive for January 2021

The science of carbon dioxide and climate

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF AN ARTICLE IN THE CONVERSATION THAT THE CLIMATE SCIENCE OF ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING VIA CO2 IS SETTLED SCIENCE AND NOT A CONTROVERSY THAT NEEDS TO BE SETTLED. LINK: https://theconversation.com/co-levels-and-climate-change-is-there-really-a-controversy-119268 .

A Friendly Reminder From Pretty Much Every Climate Scientist in the World: Climate  Change Is Real | Smart News | Smithsonian Magazine

PART-1: WHAT THE SOURCE DOCUMENT SAYS ABOUT CO2 AND CLIMATE CHANGE

The relationship between atmospheric CO2 levels and climate change is often perceived as a controversial subject. While there’s no real disagreement among climate scientists – around 90% fully agree that human activity is clearly responsible for climate change – in the United States in 2016, barely 50% of the general public came to the same conclusion. Adding to the general confusion, highly active “climate-change deniers” claim that temperature has evolved independently of CO2 atmospheric concentrations through Earth’s history, and that therefore today’s rising CO2 levels are not an issue. So did scientists get the story wrong? No. CO2 has long contributed to controlling the Earth’s climate, and its rising concentration in the atmosphere and oceans is a major threat to humanity. Together with solar activity and albedo, greenhouse gases are a key part of Earth’s radiative budget and exert a strong control on surface temperature. Although water vapour is the primary greenhouse gas on Earth, CO2 draws much more attention because it can actively lead climate change. Unfortunately, human activity delivers CO2 to the atmosphere at a rate 70 times greater than all volcanoes on Earth combined. As a result, atmospheric CO2 concentration (or pCO2) increases and the surface of the Earth warms up at a pace that no natural factor can explain. We know that CO2 is a temperature control and we can demonstrate it in various ways. One of them is through the exploration of Earth’s history. Using rocks, fossils and their chemical and physical properties, geoscientists have reconstructed warm and cold periods throughout Earth’s history. To demonstrate the link between climate, temperature and pCO2 millions of years ago, we need to reconstruct each of them independently. To do so, we use climatic recorders called “proxies”. The isotopic composition of oxygen atoms, written δ¹⁸O, measured in ancient calcareous shells, is one of them. It allows us to reconstruct past seawater temperatures with a well-known degree of uncertainty that depends on analytical precision and how parameters such as seawater δ¹⁸O, salinity and pH also affect the δ¹⁸O of shells. Because geological history affects rocks and their signals, the further we go back in time, the larger are the uncertainties. We thus combine different proxies and formulate hypotheses that continually improve with years of research. Establishing such reconstructions is a slow, complicated (sometimes painful) process but they become more and more reliable every year as uncertainties decrease. If uncertainties are too large, interpretations rely on parsimony: the simplest model must be considered the likeliest. What matters is that scientists know how to estimate uncertainties, and share them. Overall, seawater temperature reconstructions agree with geological observations of climate history: major ice ages coincide with lower global temperature. In particular, δ¹⁸O indicate a steady cooling from 50 million years onwards, leading to the preindustrial climate. GEOCARB (version III) reconstruction of pCO₂ (yellow, one point every 10 million years) and average tropical sea surface temperature from δ¹⁸O of carbonates corrected for seawater pH changes assuming no δ¹⁸O changes for seawater (red) compared with geologically constrained cold periods (light blue) and glaciations (dark blue). The history of pCO2: Proxies exist for pCO2 as well. For instance, palaeontologists count stomata – apertures through which plants breathe, exchange moisture and take up CO2 for photosynthesis – on fossil leaves. The more CO2 is abundant, the fewer stomata are required. One factor that adds a degree of uncertainty is that plants have fewer stomata under drier climates and more under humid ones. Fossil leaves are rare and atmospheric pCO2 data are scarce for ancient periods of Earth. In the absence of (sufficient) data, numerical modelling helps explain data with a globally coherent approach that respects the fundamental laws of physics. One of the most famous is GEOCARB, a geological carbon cycle model developed to reconstruct pCO2 history by Robert Berner and his colleagues. On timescales greater than 100,000 years, pCO2 is primarily added from volcanoes, and lost through two carbon pumps: the biological pump and the carbonate pump. During photosynthesis, plants and algae take up CO2 to build their organic matter. When they die, this CO2 might get trapped in sediments. This is the biological pump. The carbonate pump is the coupling between weathering of continents and carbonate rock precipitation. CO2 acidifies surface waters that dissolve rocks. Dissolved elements are washed to the ocean where they are used to build calcareous material such as shells or corals, which eventually become limestones. Year after year, these pumps store CO2 away from the atmosphere. In the past, volcanoes could have been more or less active; continents were in different locations, which affected the carbon pumps. Berner and colleagues quantified how the otherwise known evolution of those parameters affected the carbon cycle and, therefore, atmospheric pCO2. They knew and displayed their model uncertainty. Their results should be presented with an estimation envelope, not as a given value. Times of higher pCO2 are warm periods. Conversely, decrease in atmospheric CO2 content triggered glacial periods such as of the Carboniferous and modern ice ages, with the possible exception of the Hirnantian (445 million years ago). Recent models suggest that for this remote period, the tectonic configuration played a specific role. How humans quickly affect climate. Temperature and pCO₂ reconstructions for the last 66 My. Temperatures are calculated using the δ¹⁸O of carbonates and are represented without their uncertainty. The pCO₂ reconstruction is based on seven different proxies in agreement within their respective uncertainties. Beerling and Royer, 2011., Author provided
Over the time period beginning at the point that dinosaurs went extinct (a relatively recent 66 My ago), geologists can rely on many temperature and CO2 proxies in addition to δ¹⁸O or fossil leaves. The closer we get to our era, the more proxies there are and the fewer the uncertainties are, until we can connect geological and ice core data that support each other. Tectonics modified oceanic circulation and led to the building of mountain ranges like the Himalayas. Both factors affected the carbon pumps and forced pCO2 to decrease, as shown by proxies and in agreement with the GEOCARB trends. This decrease in pCO2 led to the observed cooling and drove the Earth to the current glacial-interglacial alternation. We can determine from ice cores and proxies that pCO2 has been oscillating between 200 and 350 ppm for 2.6 million years and that it suddenly increased from 280 to 410 ppm between 1850 and 2018. pCO2 is heading toward levels unprecedented for 5, or even 30 million years, when the Earth was much warmer than today and no Atlantic ice caps were present. Reconstructions of temperature and pCO2 can offer us a glimpse into what lies ahead of us if we don’t slow down CO2 emissions. On long time scales, when pCO2 increases, warming stimulates the carbon pumps, thereby helping pCO2 to decrease. This negative feedback can act as a geological thermostat. Unfortunately, it is too slow to react rapidly enough to compensate for our fast emissions. On the timescale of a decade, warming aggravates CO2 release to the atmosphere. When temperature increases, oceans warm up and release dissolved CO2 to the atmosphere. For 2.6 million years, glacial and interglacial cycles have been forced by Earth’s orbital fluctuations and CO2 was only an internal positive feedback. Today, anthropogenic CO2 leads and amplifies the ongoing warming. Carbon cycle geological thermostat. The + means that the parameters are stimulated by an increase of the factor located before the arrow. The – means that the parameter is attenuated. For example, carbon pumps decrease atmospheric CO₂ while volcanic inputs increase it. Pierre-Henri Blard and Guillaume Paris. As a result of the pCO2 increase, the average surface temperature has already increased by almost 1°C between 1901 and 2012. The Earth’s surface has been much warmer than today in the past and it will eventually cool off.

However, the consequences of the short-term changes are disastrous. In addition to higher surface temperatures, extreme weather events, ocean acidification, ice melting and sea-level rise are about to significantly disrupt our daily lives and harms the ecosystems around us. Earth science helps us understand the past of our planet. We cannot control Earth’s orbit, tectonics or oceanic circulation but we can control our greenhouse-gas emissions. The future is for all of us to build.

Apocalypse now: Our bleak climate future | Newshub

PART-2: CRITICAL COMMENTARY

(1): The essence of the anthropogenic global warming case made in this article is that throughout our long geological history over billions of years, the paleo proxy data show that atmospheric CO2 concentration (ACC) and global mean surface temperature (GMST) rose and fell naturally at time scales of millions of years and through all these changes we see a positive correlation between ACC and GMST. Under high ACC conditions we see high GMST and under low ACC we see low GMST. These slow changes at long million year time scales are natural and they clearly establish the positive causal relationship between ACC and GMST where high GMST is seen at high ACC and low GMST is found at low ACC.

(2): In these slow natural changes in ACC in the paleo record what we find is that ACC varies between 200ppm and 350ppm at a very gentle pace over millions of years. These changes at geological time scales and between these the values of 200ppm and 350ppm are entirely natural.

(3): BUT what we see in the last century or so is an unprecedented rise in ACC from 280ppm to 410ppm at an unprecedented 100-year time scale. WHAT THESE PALEO DATA TELL US IS THAT THE CURRENT RISE IN CO2 IS TOO RAPID TO BE NATURAL AND THAT THEREFORE IT MUST BE HUMAN CAUSED BY WAY OF FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS.

(4): AT THE SAME TIME THE RISE IN ATMOSPHERIC CO2 TO ABOVE THE HISTORIC HIGH OF 350PPM ALL THE WAY UP TO 410PPM PUTS GLOBAL WARMING INTO UNCHARTED TERRITORY THAT PORTENDS CATACLYSMIC CONSEQUENCES OF GLOBAL WARMING NEVER BEFORE SEEN IN THE PALEO PROXY DATA.

(5): THESE FINDINGS ARE PRESENTED AS THE EVIDENCE THAT AGW IS A CLIMATE CRISIS AND THAT THE CLIMATE CRISIS IS IN FACT A CREATION OF THE HUMAN ACTIVITY OF BURNING FOSSIL FUELS THAT CAN AND MUST BE ATTENUATED WITH THE CLIMATE ACTION PRESCRIBED BY CLIMATE SCIENCE. THE PRESCRIPTION IS THAT WE MUST STOP BURNING FOSSIL FUELS.

(6): THAT THE CASE AGAINST FOSSIL FUELS IN THIS CENTURY CANNOT BE MADE WITH THE RELEVANT DATA FOR THIS CENTURY BUT REQUIRE PALEO PROXY DATA FROM MILLIONS OF YEARS AGO, DOES NOT SERVE AS EVIDENCE FOR THE CLAIMS MADE AGAINST FOSSIL FUELS. IT DOES JUST THE OPPOSITE. IT EXPOSES EMPIRICAL WEAKNESSES IN THE THEORY OF AGW.

(7): IN THE THEORY OF AGW, THE CASE AGAINST FOSSIL FUELS IS MADE WITH THE SO CALLED “AIRBORNE FRACTION” ARGUMENT. THE EMPIRICAL DATA SHOW THAT THE ANNUAL RISE IN ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION (ACC) EQUALS ABOUT HALF OF THE ANNUAL CO2 FROM FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS (FFE). BASED ON THIS OBSERVATION, CLIMATE SCIENCE PROPOSES THAT THE OBSERVED RISE IN ACC IS CAUSED BY FFE BY WAY OF THE AIRBORNE FRACTION OF 50%, THAT IS HALF THE CO2 IN FFE STAYS IN THE ATMOSPHERE FOREVER AND CAUSES ACC TO RISE.

(8): WE NOTE HERE THAT THIS AIRBORNE FRACTION ARGUMENT IS A PRODUCT OF CIRCULAR REASONING AND CONFIRMATION BIAS AND YET IT SERVES AS THE FOUNDATIONAL EVIDENCE FOR HUMAN CAUSE IN CLIMATE SCIENCE WHERE THIS WARMING CYCLE OF THE HOLOCENE IS CLAIMED TO BE HUMAN CAUSED BY WAY OF FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS. IN A RELATED POSTS O THIS SITE, WE PRESENT THE RESULTS OF STATISTICAL TESTS OF THE AIRBORNE FRACTION HYPOTHESIS. LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/12/29/climate-scientist-explains-the-carbon-budget/

(9): THESE TESTS DO NOT PROVIDE THE EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE NEEDED FOR HUMAN CAUSE BY WAY OF FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS. SOME OF THE RELEVANT CHARTS ARE REPRODUCED BELOW. DETAILS OF THESE STATISTICAL TESTS ARE FOUND IN THE RELATED POST ON THE AIRBORNE FRACTION: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/12/29/climate-scientist-explains-the-carbon-budget/

S15). CO 2 airborne fraction, AF, the ratio of annual observed... |  Download Scientific Diagram

(10): CONCLUSION:

DETRENDED CORRELATION ANALYSIS AND MONTE CARLO SIMULATION ARE USED TO STUDY THE RESPONSIVENESS OF ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION TO FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS.

NO EVIDENCE IS FOUND TO SUPPORT THE ASSUMED CAUSATION IN CLIMATE SCIENCE WHERE THE OBSERVED RISE IN ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION IS ATTRIBUTED TO FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS. 

THE FINDINGS PRESENTED ABOVE IMPLY THAT THE AIRBORNE FRACTION IS A CREATION OF CIRCULAR REASONING AND CONFRMATION BIAS.

COP21: James Hansen, the father of climate change awareness, claims Paris  agreement is a 'fraud' | The Independent | The Independent

A STATEMENT FROM NASA GISS AND JAMES HANSEN ON THE PROBLEM WITH THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD

Scientific reticence hinders communication with the public about the dangers of global warming. It is important that policy-makers recognize the potential influence of this phenomenon. Scientific reticence may be a consequence of the scientific method. Success in science depends on objective skepticism. Scientific reticence has its merits. However, in a case such as ice sheet instability and sea level rise, there is a danger of excessive reticence. [LINK TO SOURCE DOCUMENT]

TRANSLATION: ADHEFRENCE TO UNBIASED OBJECTIVE SCIENTIFIC INQUIRY INTERFERES WITH CLIMATE ACTIVISM

  1. TRENDS IN TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/11/28/trends-in-tropical-cyclone-activity/
  2. TROPICAL CYCLONES AND SST: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/03/22/ace-sst/
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONES OF THE PRE-INDUSTRIAL ERA: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/04/04/1737/
  4. TROPICAL CYCLONES AND CLIMATE CHANGE 2019: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/08/01/tropical-cyclones-climate-change/
  5. TROPICAL CYCLONES AND CLIMATE CHANGE 2020: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/03/04/agwcyclones/
  6. A FAILED OBSESSION WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/09/20/a-failed-obsession-with-tropical-cyclones/
  7. THE HURRICANE OBSESSION OF CLIMATE SCIENCE: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/11/14/hurricane-obsession/
  8. CLIMATE CHANGE AND HURRICANES: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/09/18/climate-change-hurricanes/
  9. TOTAL HURRICANE ENERGY AND FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/09/15/emissions-hurricanes/
  10. WHAT TOM KNUTSON SAYS: “Tropical cyclones and climate change.” Nature geoscience 3.3 (2010): 157-163. In the paper, Tom Knutson spells out exactly what climate science claims in terms of the impact of AGW climate change on tropical cyclones with climate model predictions of the effect of rising SST on tropical cyclones. His main points are as follows: (1) Globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones will rise as AGW increases SST. Models predict globally averaged intensity increase of 2% to 11% by 2100. (2). Models predict falling globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones with frequency decreasing 6%-34% by 2100. (3). The globally averaged frequency of “most intense tropical cyclones” should increase as a result of AGW. The intensity of tropical cyclones is measured as the ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy). (4). Models predict increase in precipitation within a 100 km radius of the storm center. A precipitation rise of 20% is projected for the year 2100. (5) Extremely high variance in tropical cyclone data at an annual time scale suggests longer, perhaps a decadal time scale which in turn greatly reduces statistical power. (6) Model projections for individual cyclone basins show large differences and conflicting results. Thus, no testable implication can be derived for studies of individual basins.
The deadly weather events of 2020 overshadowed by COVID-19 | World Economic  Forum

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF A CLIMATE COUNCIL REPORT ON THE EXTREME WEATHER IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN AUSTRALIA PRESENTED IN A YOUTUBE VIDEO. THE POST IS IN THREE PARTS. PART-1 IS A TRANSCRIPT OF THE LECTURE IN THE YOUTUVE VIDEO. PART-2 IS THE TEXT OF THE AUSTRALIA CLIMATE COUNCIL REPORT CITED IN THE VIDEO. PART-3 IS A CRITICAL EVALUATION OF THE LECTURE AND THE CLIMATE COUNCIL REPORT. THE YOUTUBE VIDEO APPEARS BELOW.

PART-1: TRANSCRIPT OF THE YOUTUBE VIDEO LECTURE

On January 4 last year, a suburb in Sydney’s west was officially the hottest place on earth. Just four weeks later Sydney was pounded with more rain in 4 days than in the previous 6 months. Australia has always been a country of extreme weather but the climate council report finds the frequency of extreme weather events is increasing and so is the cost of the damage. {displays chart showing cost data}: The cost of extreme weather in Australia has risen to $35 billion in the past decade (2010-2020) {blogger’s note on inflation: $100 in 1970 $1,193.06 in 2020}.

The report also says that Australia probably crossed a tipping point in last summer’s fires which burned more than 20% of the country’s forests.

INTERVIEW WITH WILL STEFFEN:

THE LADY ASKS: Will Steffen, your analysis makes grim reading in documenting what is already happening like the ??hading penrus??, last summer’s bushfires, and something called ??flak drought??. ??Your forth?? suggests worse events that we were expecting at lower temperatures?? WILL STEFFEN ANSWERS: Yes that’s right, the report shows in fact that the last two years have been remarkable for extreme weather around Australia. Penrus was the hottest place on earth for one day. We saw the third mass bleaching event of the Great Barrier Reef. Everyone in Eastern Australia for certain remembers the bushfires of 2019-2020. And during 2020 we had massive coastal erosion along northern New South Wales, and into Queensland. All of these events are at the upper end and beyond the upper end of what we were expecting at 1.1C temperature rise (since pre-industrial?). So this is basically showing us that Australia is more vulnerable to the extreme weather events that are being fueled by climate change. More vulnerable than we thought even 5 or 10 years ago.

THE LADY ASKS: It does suggest we’re going to have to take drastic steps faster exactly as we were warned ten years ago. WILL STEFFEN ANSWERS: That’s exactly right. We were warned 10 years ago that if we wanted to meet what turned out to be the lower Paris target of 1.5C, we had to start gettiing emissions down during this past decade. We didn’t do that. That means that it is virtually impossible that we can hold temperature rise to 1.5C. So that brings the 2C target into question already. 2C is going to be a pretty difficult climate to live in, but even that means that we cannot afford any more delay. THE LADY ASKS: How does that compare with the targets that the government and the opposition are talking about. It’s basically a doubling of the reduction task, isn’t it? WILL STEFFEN ANSWERS: That’s correct. The present target is 26% to 28% emission reduction by 2030 from 2005 levels. That’s far far too weak. When we just analyzed what the targets ought to be given the Paris Agreement, at the very minimum we need to cut our emissions by 50% by 2030 (5% per year) from 2005 levels not 26% to 28%. That means we need to get them headed down quite strongly by 2025. Covid has given us a bit of a boost here in 2020 and emissions have gone down by 6% or so, but that was because of the pandemic not because of climate action so we need to build on this and keep reducing our emissions as we go through this decade and beyond. THE LADY ASKS: What does it mean for the government’s so called gas led recovery? WILL STEFFEN ANSWERS: There is absolutely no room for the expansion of the fossil fuel industry. That’s absolutely clear. To meet these Paris targets to get the emissions down 50% by 2030 we have to rapidly reduce our use of fossil fuels – coal, gas, and oil – and that means you simply can’t expand any of these industries if you know that you’ve got to reduce then by 20% in just one decade – that is a massive task ahead of us. THE LADY ASKS: Finally, what would Australia look like with temperatures that were 3C higher than they are now. WILL STEFFEN ANSWERS: A {+3C world since pre-industrial} is a pretty frightening one when you actually start looking at it in any detail. Extreme heat would be beyond anything we are experiencing now – what we call extreme heat between 35C and 40C might be considered a cool day during the summer with a 3C temperature rise. The Great Barrier Reef would be gone. The forests would probably burn as soon as they grow back. In fact we wouldn’t get many forests they would be converted to savannas or grasslands. The droughts, what we’re experiencing in the Southwest and the Southeast, in our major agrocultural zones, is very likely to be much more severe. And that means that we may become a food importer rather than exporter. It will be really tough to grow the food that we need. When you think about it, this is a world where you can absolutely and positively say is a “collapse scenario” cannot be ruled out. This is going to be a really really tough world just to live in – let alone survive in any sort of reasonable sense. THE LADY ASKS: A very depressing outlook, thank you Will Steffeb: END OF VIDEO.

PART-2: THE TEXT OF THE CLIMATE COUNCIL REPORT

LINK: https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/new-report-australia-takes-massive-financial-hit-from-climate-change/

THE COST of extreme weather in Australia has more than doubled since the 1970s, and totalled $35 billion over the past decade, a new Climate Council report has found. The Climate Council’s report is called Hitting Home: The Compounding Costs of Climate Inaction. “There is no doubt that we have entered an era of consequences arising from decades of climate inaction and delay,” said lead author and Climate Council spokesman, Professor Will Steffen. And it is going to get worse. By 2038, extreme weather events driven by climate change, as well as the impacts of sea-level rise, could cost the Australian economy $100 billion every year,” said Professor Steffen. For Australia, the devastating Black Summer fires, a crippling drought, and yet another mass bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef highlight our acute vulnerability to climate impacts. “Australians are five times more likely to be displaced by a climate change-fuelled disaster than someone living in Europe. In the Pacific, that risk is 100 times higher,” said Professor Steffen. “The regional impacts of climate change will profoundly undermine Australia’s national security. Unlike most other wealthy countries, Australia is in a region with many densely populated, near-neighbour, developing countries that are highly vulnerable to climate change,” said the former United Nations Secretary General’s Special Representative for Disaster Risk Reduction, Dr Robert Glasser. REPORT KEY FINDINGS: The latest science projects that (1) by 2100 annual deaths from extreme heat worldwide will outstrip all COVID-19 deaths recorded in 2020. In 2019-20, we ushered in a new and dangerous era of megafires that ravaged Australia, Brazil, Siberia and the US West Coast. We are on track to eliminate all of Australia’s and the world’s tropical coral reefs. Climate-related hazards have affected six times more people in the Asia-Pacific than in the rest of the world combined. Ignoring climate change is deadly. Australians are now paying the price for our own and the world’s failure to reduce emissions quickly enough or deeply enough. We need bold, concerted action across all levels of government, business, industry and community to reduce Australia’s emissions to net zero as soon as possible and prepare for worsening extreme weather events. Because many climate impacts are already locked-in, we must learn to live in a new era of drought, floods, and megafires. It’s equally clear that far greater dangers lie ahead if we fail to act with the urgency and determination that the science demands, said Dr Glasser. No developed country has more to lose from climate change-fuelled extreme weather, or more to gain as the world transforms to a zero-carbon economy, than Australia does, said Professor Will Steffen. Over the coming decade, Australia must aim to at least halve its emissions, and reach net zero by 2040 at the latest. The Climate Council is Australia’s leading community-funded climate change communications organisation. We provide authoritative, expert and evidence-based advice on climate change to journalists, policymakers, and the wider Australian community. For further information, go to: climatecouncil.org.au

About Will Steffen: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/12/07/the-holocene-is-the-anthropocene/

Will Steffen: The Age of the Anthropocene - YouTube

PART-3: CRITICAL COMMENTARY

(#1): The analysis of global warming and global climate action in terms of Australian emissions and Australian temperatures is not possible. Australia’s fossil fuel emissions are less than 1.5% of global emissions, well within the error margin in the global emission estmate thought to be 10% or greater. Therefore it is not possibe to relate forecasts of global mean temperature based on Australia’s fossil fuel emissions. A meaningful analysis in this context must relate global mean temperatures to global fossil fuel emissions.

(#2): The global warming targets of 1.5C and 2C do not relate to warming from the present nor from 2005. It relates only to warming “since pre-industrial“. In the IPCC version of this issue, the term pre-industrial is a reference to the year 1850 so that the 1.5C and 2C warming targets are from 1850 to the target year. The IPCC science also says that we have already warmed a little more than 1C since pre-industrial. This means that the 3C warming target since pre-industrial will be breached when we warm another 2C from today and the 2C target will be breached when we warm another 1C from today. A further complication in this issue is that although climate science must be studied in terms of warming since pre-industrial there appears to be some confusion as to exactly when that was and what the temperature was back then. In their first report, the IPCC had determined that the pre-industrial year was 1760 but in their very next report, the pre-industrial year was brought forward by 90 years to 1850 and it is still 1850 in IPCC publications. However, eminent climate scentist James Hansen and NASA GISS have determined that the pre-industrial year was 1950. The problem here may be the ETCW issue in climate science, the Early Twentieth Century Warming anomaly where climate science is unable to relate temperature to atmospheric CO2 until 1950 or later. It is likely for this reason that the reference pre-industrial year is 1950 at NASA GISS and also in the works of James Hansen. In this case, the “warming since pre-industrial” is a reference to warming since 1950.

(#3): Yet another consideration is that these temperatures are a reference to global mean temperature. How that relates to Australian temperatures is not known because of the complexity imposed by internal climate variability. Consider that Australia constitutes 1.56% of the surface area of the world and 5.37% of the world’s land area. Although a relatively large country in comparison with other countries, it is rather insignificant in matters that relate only to global mean temperaures and global emissions. As described in a related post: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/07/16/the-internal-variability-issue/ , the theory of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) relates rising global mean surface temperature (GMST) to rising global atmospheric CO2 concentration as a logarithmic function in terms of the equilibrium climate sensitivity parameter (ECS). This relationship is understood only in global terms, or for signficant latitudinal sections thereof, and only over long time spans longer than 30 years. In a related post we show that the stability of the ECS climate sensitivity, on which the theory of AGW is based, can be found at time spans of 60 years or more; LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/01/22/empirical-sensitivity/ . If these constraints are violated, surface temperature dynamics can no longer be understood in terms of AGW because internal climate variability dominates under constraints of limited geographical extent and brief time scales. Details of the internal climate variability issue provided in a related post linked above.

(#4): In view of the information presented in item#3 above, we propose that it is not possible that temperature events or short term temperature dynamics geographically limited to Australia can be understood in terms of AGW. This means that the theory of AGW does not contain information for making temperature forecases for Australia at decadal time scales as proposed in the video by Will Steffen.

(#5): The claims made in the video and in the climate council report with respect to rising destructive impacts of AGW in terms of forest fires, droughts, and high temperatures are made in terms of the cost of extreme weather in Australia. We are told that the cost of extreme weather events in Australia has doubled to $35 billion in the past decade (2010-2020). It is not clear that the financial impact reported is proportional to the extent of the extreme weather event in question because because inflation data is not taken into consideration in this comparison. In fact, this comparison is made over a period of high inflation such that $100 in 1970 is equivalent to $1,193 in 2020. If over this period the cost of extreme weather only doubled, it does not imply rising damage due to extreme weather. It actually implies declining damage due to extreme weather.

(6): No rationale is provided for the attribution of these extreme weather events to anthropogenic global warming (AGW). Although the internal climate variability issue would make it almost impossible to present such attribution with a any degree of certainty, at the minimum, climate science requires that such attribution should be supported by what is called an “Event Attribution” study. This procedure was initially created by the UN to set guidelines on which extreme weather events in poor countries (non-Annex countries) should receive compensation from rich countries (Annex-1 countries). The procedure involves the use of climate models to estimate the probability of the event with (P1) and without (P0) global warming. The probability that the extreme weather event can be attrbuted to AGW is computed as P=(P1-P0)/P0. The extreme weather event is then considered fundable if P>0.5. Details of this procedure are provided in a related post: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/07/10/event-attribution-science-a-case-study/ . Although a purely bureaucratic tool of the UN to have some way to determine whether extreme weather events are fundable, the procedure was adopted by climate science as “Event Attribution Science” as a method of identifying extreme weather events that can be attributed to AGW. It is a flawed device but such an event attribution study is considered a minimum requirement for the attribution of extreme weather events to AGW. Neither the video nor the climate council report provides the relevant information on how event attribution was made in the cases where extrme weather events in Australia are attributed to AGW. It appears therefore that the mere fact that an extreme weather event occurrred at a time of AGW is taken as evidence that it was a creation of AGW. If so all such attributions can be rejected on this basis as creations of supersition and confirmation bias: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/12/27/superstitious-humans/ . THAT AN EXTREME WEATHER EVENT OCCURRED DURING A PERIOD OF GLOBAL WARMING IS NOT EVIDENCE THAT IT WAS CAUSED BY GLOBAL WARMING.

(7): A reference is made by Will Steffen to a destruction of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) by way of AGW. It is noted in this context that the GBR is located in a known highly active geological area with extensive heat sources in the ocean floor below in terms of submarine volcanism, mantle plumes, and hydrothermal vents. Ocean temperature dynamics in such areas cannot be understood purely in terms of AGW. Therefore, such attribution to AGW requires a heat balance analysis to make that attribution. It is also noted that not just the GBR but most coral reefs we see today are not unique to this warming cycle but have lived through and survived all previous warming and cooling cycles of the Holocene as well as the intense warming in the first millennia of the previous interglacial. The assumed role of humans as caretakers and preservers of coral reefs seems to be an extension of the assumed role of humans as planetary managers that forms the foundation of the Anthropocene theory of which Will Steffen is an active proponent and which we propose is a creation of the Bambi Principle of environmentalism where humans are not part of nature but its masters and caretakers. LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/12/08/history-of-coral-reefs/ .

Bambi

POSTSCRIPT#1: WILL STEFFEN’S ANTHROPOCENE ACTIVISM; LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/12/07/the-holocene-is-the-anthropocene/

POSTSCRIPT#2: GLOBAL WARMING DATA

WARMING RATE FOR EACH CALENDAR MONTH FOR TEN GLOBAL REGIONS FROM TOP TO BOTTOM: TROPICS-LAND, TROPICS-OCEAN, NORTHERNEXTENT-LAND, NORTHERNEXTENT-OCEAN, SOUTHERNEXTENT-LAND, SOUTHERNEXTENT-OCEAN, NORTHPOLAR-LAND, NORTHPOLAR-OCEAN, SOUTHPOLAR-LAND, SOUTHPOLAR-OCEAN. AUSTRALIA IS IN THE SOUTHERNEXTENT-LAND ZONE.

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF A CLIMATE CRISIS CLAIM BY THE GUARDIAN ON 1/28/2021. IT IS A RECITATION OF THE OFT REPEATED CLAIM BY CLIMATE SCIENTISTS AND ACTIVISTS THAT THE CURRENT WARM PERIOD IS UNPRECEDENTED AND THEREFORE HUMAN CAUSED AND THAT THEREFORE IT IS A CLIMATE CRISIS THAT MUST BE CHECKED WITH CLIMATE ACTION CONSISTING OF A COMPLETE CESSATION OF THE USE OF FOSSIL FUELS. LINK TO THE GUARDIAN ARTICLE: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jan/27/climate-crisis-world-now-at-its-hottest-for-12000-years

humans-eemian
NEANDERTHALLS SURVIVED THE EEMIAN INTERGLACIAL WARM PERIOD

PART-1: WHAT THE GUARDIAN ARTICLE SAYS

Climate crisis: world is at its hottest for at least 12,000 years – study: Scientists say temperatures globally at highest level since start of human civilisation: Damian Carrington Environment editor

The world’s continuously warming climate is revealed also in contemporary ice melt at glaciers, such as with this one in the Kenai mountains, Alaska The world’s continuously warming climate is revealed also in contemporary ice melt at glaciers, such as with this one in the Kenai mountains, Alaska (seen September 2019). Photograph: Joe Raedle/Getty Images The planet is hotter now than it has been for at least 12,000 years, a period spanning the entire development of human civilisation, according to research. Analysis of ocean surface temperatures shows human-driven climate change has put the world in “uncharted territory”, the scientists say. The planet may even be at its warmest for 125,000 years, although data on that far back is less certain. The research, published in the journal Nature, reached these conclusions by solving a longstanding puzzle known as the “Holocene temperature conundrum”. Climate models have indicated continuous warming since the last ice age ended 12,000 years ago and the Holocene period began. But temperature estimates derived from fossil shells showed a peak of warming 6,000 years ago and then a cooling, until the industrial revolution sent carbon emissions soaring. This conflict undermined confidence in the climate models and the shell data. But it was found that the shell data reflected only hotter summers and missed colder winters, and so was giving misleadingly high annual temperatures. “We demonstrate that global average annual temperature has been rising over the last 12,000 years, contrary to previous results,” said Samantha Bova, at Rutgers University–New Brunswick in the US, who led the research. “This means that the modern, human-caused global warming period is accelerating a long-term increase in global temperatures, making today completely uncharted territory. It changes the baseline and emphasises just how critical it is to take our situation seriously. The world may be hotter now than any time since about 125,000 years ago, which was the last warm period between ice ages. However, scientists cannot be certain as there is less data relating to that time. One study, published in 2017, suggested that global temperatures were last as high as today 115,000 years ago, but that was based on less data. The new research examined temperature measurements derived from the chemistry of tiny shells and algal compounds found in cores of ocean sediments, and solved the conundrum by taking account of two factors. First, the shells and organic materials had been assumed to represent the entire year but in fact were most likely to have formed during summer when the organisms bloomed. Second, there are well-known predictable natural cycles in the heating of the Earth caused by eccentricities in the orbit of the planet. Changes in these cycles can lead to summers becoming hotter and winters colder while average annual temperatures change only a little. Combining these insights showed that the apparent cooling after the warm peak 6,000 years ago, revealed by shell data, was misleading. The shells were in fact only recording a decline in summer temperatures, but the average annual temperatures were still rising slowly, as indicated by the models. “Now they actually match incredibly well and it gives us a lot of confidence that our climate models are doing a really good job,” said Bova. The study looked only at ocean temperature records, but Bova said: “The temperature of the sea surface has a really controlling impact on the climate of the Earth. If we know that, it is the best indicator of what global climate is doing.” She led a research voyage off the coast of Chile in 2020 to take more ocean sediment cores and add to the available data. Jennifer Hertzberg, of Texas A&M University in the US, said: By solving a conundrum that has puzzled climate scientists for years, Bova and colleagues’ study is a major step forward. Understanding past climate change is crucial for putting modern global warming in context. Lijing Cheng, at the International Centre for Climate and Environment Sciences in Beijing, China, recently led a study that showed that in 2020 the world’s oceans reached their hottest level yet in instrumental records dating back to the 1940s. More than 90% of global heating is taken up by the seas. Cheng said the new research was useful and intriguing. It provided a method to correct temperature data from shells and could also enable scientists to work out how much heat the ocean absorbed before the industrial revolution, a factor little understood. The level of carbon dioxide today is at its highest for about 4m years and is rising at the fastest rate for 66m years. Further rises in temperature and sea level are inevitable until greenhouse gas emissions are cut to net zero.

Since you’re here …… joining us from Thailand, we have a small favour to ask. Through these turbulent and challenging times, millions rely on the Guardian for independent journalism that stands for truth and integrity.

We have 12 years to limit climate change catastrophe, warns UN | Environment  | The Guardian
The horror: Tales of climate change - The Mail & Guardian

PART-2: CRITICAL COMMENTARY

(ITEM#1) That the current Holocene warm period is “Unprcedentedin the Holocene does not serve as empirical evidence that establishes either human cause or cataclysmic consequences in the absence of the proposed climate action by humans. Multiple “unprecendented” claims of this nature are made in this Guardian artcle.

(ITEM#2): The planet is hotter now than it has been for at least 12,000 years, a period spanning the entire development of human civilisation. In a related post we described the the paleo history of Holocene temperature cycles as alternating periods of warming and cooling at centennial and millennial time scales: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/06/11/chaoticholocene/ . At least nine such periods are identified including the current warm period that began when the most recent cold period known as the Little Ice Age ended. The warming trend that ensued is with us today and in the science of anthropogenic global warming and climate change it is understood as human caused by way of the fossil fuel emissions of the industrial economy because the end of the Little Ice Age coincides with the Industrial Revolution. We note here that human civilization actually started 8,000 years ago in period known as the “Holocene Climate Optimum” described in a related post LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/20/the-holocene-optimum-period-a-bibliography/ . The 12,000-year time span described here takes us back to the beginning of the Holocene interglacial following its recovery from the Younger Dryas cold period to include a 4,000-year period when the earth was cooler than the Holocene Climate Optimum 8,000 years ago. The motivation for that appears to be that a claim to 12,000 years of unprecedentedness provides stronger evidence of human cause that the usual claim to 8,000 years of unprecedentedness. The truth is that unprecedentedness is not evidence of human cause no matter how long it can be strtched by including known cold periods.

(ITEM#3): {note: YBP=years before present}. In yet another related post at this site LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/06/11/chaoticholocene/ we show that so far, the Holocene interglacial has, since the Younger Dryas re-glaciation, gone through multiple warming and cooling cycles at centennial and millennial time scales. Shortly after the Younger Dryas cooling, about 11,700YBP, a strong warming trend set in and persisted with a steady warming of 17C that rescued the Holocene from the YDE but two more glacial interruptions were still to come. The first of these two cooling events is called the 8.2K cooling because it ends 8200YBP. The Holocene interglacial recovered from the 8.2K mini glacial event and warmed to the so called “Holocene Climate Optimum” (HCO) ≈7000YBP, credited with the Neolithic Revolution that is thought to have created human civilization. Four other Holocene temperature excursions since the HCO are recognized as the Bronze Age or Minoan warm period ≈3000YBP, the Roman warm period (RWP)≈2000YBP, the Medieval warm period (MWP) ≈1100YBP, and the Little Ice Age (LIA) ≈500YBP-100YBP. The current warm period, described as Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) is thought to be caused by the Industrial Economy. The timing of the Industrial Revolution appears to mark the change from the cold of the Little Ice Age to the warmth of the current warm period.

These cyclical temperature dynamics, seen both in glaciation and in interglacial periods, exhibit chaotic behavior at centennial and millennial time scales as noted in the literature. For example, Gerard Bond, in the 1997 paper “A pervasive millennial-scale cycle, writes that “pacings of the Holocene events and of and those in the last glaciation are statistically the same. Together, they make up a series of climate shifts with a period close to 1470 ± 500 years“. That is, although glaciation and interglacials are entirely different climate states, both are subject to the same underlying chaotic volatility at the same time scale such as the random and chaotic climate cycles of the Holocene that don’t appear to follow a pattern other than that warming and cooling cycles alternate. In this context, our post Little Ice Age warming cycle is best understood as the latest such temperature cycle of the Holocene where no role of the Industrial Revolution is needed to explain this cyclical behavior of the interglacial. Therefore, the “unprecedented” comparison as an argument for the exceptionalism of the current warm period, in and of itself, does not prove human cause.

(ITEM#4): An unusual claim made in this Guardian document is that the “unprecedented” argument for the current warm period can be extended beyond the Holocene to the prior interglacial, the Eemian. The Eemian interglacial is presented in a related post on this site with an extensive bibliography on the topic: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/12/21/eemian/ . No indication is found in the climate science literature in the study of the relevant paleo climatology that the current warm period is warmer than the Eemian. However, going back to our primary observation in the unprecedented argument, that “unprecedented does not prove human cause since many natural unprecented warming cycles have come and gone, even if the current warm period were warmer than the Eemian, it would not prove human cause.

holmes-eemian

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS: To summarize, (a) uprecendented does not prove human cause and (b) the comparison is renderered all the more mysterious in what appears to be a desperate search to extend the usual climate science comparison with “the last 2,000 years” with the supersitious and mysterious idea that the human cause idea can be made stronger by going farther and farther back in time. Such an unscientific and invalid argument for the human cause that would validate the need for human intervention to “save the planet” does not support or strengthen the climate science case for human cause but rather exposes the underlying methodological weaknesses and a desperate need for human cause to support the anti fossil fuel activism of this enterprise. RELATED POST ON ANTI FOSSIL FUEL ACTIVISM: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/03/23/anti-fossil-fuel-activism-disguised-as-climate-science/

The case for human cause can be made only by providing the empirical evidence that relates rising atmospheric CO2 concentration to fossil fuel emissions at an annual time scale as claimed in the “Airborne Fraction” argument of climate science. The need for the “unprecedented” deception is best understood in terms of the inability of climate science to provide that evidence.

The “Airborne Fraction” issue in climate science is discussed in a related post in the context of a lecture on that topic by climate scientist and carbon budget giant of our time, Professor Glen Peters: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/12/29/climate-scientist-explains-the-carbon-budget/

CICERO

CONCLUSION: WE CONCLUDE FROM THIS ANALYSIS THAT THE SERIES OF ARGUMENTS PRESENTED BY THE GUARDIAN THAT THE CURRENT WARM PERIOD IS UNPRECEDENTED DOES NOT PROVE HUMAN CAUSE EVEN IF THESE UNPRECEDENTED ARGUMENTS COULD BE VALIDATED WITH EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE.

Climate Change Australia – Pure Warming Alarmism In The Sydney Morning  Herald, But What's New? | PA Pundits - International
Climate activism is now a global movement, but it's still not enough | MIT  Technology Review

A Need for Hope: The Role of Media in Communicating Climate Change | EOS  Blog | Earth Observatory of Singapore

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL EVALUATION OF A CLIMATE FEAROLOGY ARTICLE ON WARMING OCEANS JANUARY 26, 2021: LINK: https://therevelator.org/ocean-climate-change/

Climate Crisis and Ocean Warming | the Shape of Life | The Story of the  Animal Kingdom

PART-1: WHAT THE REVELATOR ARTICLE SAYS: Climate change has caused record-breaking ocean temperatures, and that means more dangerous storms, trouble for coral reefs and big changes for our marine ecosystems. Russell is a professor of biogeochemical dynamics at the University of Arizona. From that dry, landlocked state, she’s become a leading expert on how the climate is changing in the Southern Ocean — those vast, dark waters swirling around Antarctica. “This is an age of scientific discovery, but also very scary what we’re finding out.” Researchers like Russell have been ringing alarm bells in report after report warning that the world’s ocean waters are dangerously warming. Most of the heat trapped by the greenhouse gas emissions we’ve spewed into the air for decades has actually been absorbed by the ocean. Over the past 25 years, that heat amounts to the equivalent of exploding 3.6 billion Hiroshima-sized atom bombs, {Lijing Cheng of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and lead author of a new study on ocean warming}. Now we’re beginning to witness the cascading repercussions of that oceanic warming: supercharged storms, dying coral reefs, & crashing fisheries. There’s still a lot left to learn about these problems, but here’s a look at some of the top findings from researchers, along with what they hope to uncover next.

(1): Yes, It’s Definitely Getting Warmer. There’s no doubt among scientists that the ocean is heating and we’re driving it. The latest confirmation is the study by Cheng and colleagues, published this month in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, which bluntly stated, “Ocean heating is irrefutable and a key measure of the Earth’s energy imbalance. The study found ocean waters in 2019 were the warmest in recorded history. And that follows a pattern: The past decade has also seen the warmest 10 years of ocean temperatures, and the last five years have been the five warmest on record. Every year the ocean waters get warmer because of the heat-trapping gases that humans have emitted into the atmosphere,” says John Abraham, one of the study’s coauthors and a professor in mechanical engineering at the University of St. Thomas. It’s concerning for sure.

(2): The Southern Ocean Has Been Hit Worst. Much of this warming occurs between the surface and a depth of 6,500 feet. It’s happening pretty consistently across the globe, but some areas have experienced higher rates of warming. One of those is the Southern Ocean, which has acted as a giant sink, absorbing 43% of our oceanic CO2 emissions and 75% of the heat, scientists have concluded. That’s because the ocean basin functions like an air conditioner for the planet. Strong winds pull up cold water from deep below, and then the cold surface water takes up some heat from the air. When the winds slow, the water sinks, more cold water rises, and the process repeats. The sinking water isn’t warm, per se, just a bit warmer than it was when the wind pulled it up. In this way the Southern Ocean can sequester a lot of heat well below the surface. For that reason what happens in the Southern Ocean is globally important. And it makes new findings all the more concerning.

(3): THE ANTARCTIC: Normal upwelling of waters from deep in the Southern Ocean has traditionally brought nutrients to the surface, where they then get moved by the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, the world’s strongest ocean current, to feed marine life in other areas. This process will be disrupted as warm waters cause the Southern Ocean’s ice sheets to melt even faster. This will change the historical upwelling and could trap nutrients instead of pushing them out. That will begin to starve the global ocean of nutrients.

(4): A Lot of Changes Are Happening. As bad as that sounds…there’s a lot more. One of the most obvious results of ocean warming is higher sea levels. That’s caused in part because water expands as it warms. But there’s also the effect on sea ice. The warmer the water gets, the more sea ice melts as is happening in Antarctica. Not surprisingly rates of global sea-level rise are accelerating. This means more property damage, storm surges, and waves lapping at the heels of our coastal communities.

(5): Warmer waters also mean more supercharged storms. An increase in heat drives up evaporation and adds extra moisture to the atmosphere, causing heavy rains, more flooding and more extreme weather events. The aftermath of Cyclone Idai, one of the deadliest storms in history, in Mozambique, March 2019.
In some places it can make drier conditions worse, too. When air rises and cools below the dew point, it turns into clouds or precipitation. “But in places like Arizona or Australia, where rain is generally formed when air is pushed upward over mountains, “the warmer atmosphere might not be cold enough to cause rain. This is how a warmer atmosphere carrying more moisture might actually rain less in some places — contributing to drought and therefore fire. This study in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences identified warming waters as “one of the key reasons why the Earth has experienced increasing catastrophic fires in the Amazon, California, and Australia in 2019.

(6): Warming ocean waters also contribute to the rise of colonies of algae that can produce toxins deadly to wildlife and sometimes people. These harmful algal blooms pose a problem even way up in the Gulf of Alaska, where the annual algae season has gotten longer. That’s all, of course, due to warmer water. The biggest change in the region may be along the coast of the Bering Sea, where water temperatures have historically been too cold for the blooms to occur but that’s starting to change. Now the water temperatures are getting up to the point where they’re warm enough to support these harmful algal blooms. Toxins from the blooms can work their way up the food chain and have even shown up in some marine mammals in the areas. People are concerned about whether it’s safe to eat their staple foods.

(7): Marine Heat Waves Are Getting Worse. While temperatures are rising across the world’s oceans, some areas are also seeing dangerous short-term spikes known as marine heatwaves. These heatwaves, which can be fatal to a long list of sea creatures, will continue to get more severe and more frequent as the ocean warms. By the end of the century, conditions in some areas may be akin to a permanent heatwave. That’s likely to be bad news for everything from seaweed to birds to mammals, and it could result in fundamental changes for food webs and the animals and coastal economies that depend on those resources. Collectively, and over time, an increase in the exposure of marine ecosystems to extreme temperatures may lead to irreversible loss of species or foundation habitats, such as seagrass, coral reefs and kelp forests. These changes likely aren’t far off. These marine heatwaves will emerge as forceful agents of disturbance to marine ecosystems in the near-future. We’re already seeing what that would look like.

(8): Marine heatwaves off Australia have spurred oyster die-offs and losses to the abalone fishery, and one event in 2016 caught the world’s attention when it caused severe bleaching of the biodiverse Great Barrier Reef, triggering mass coral deaths.

(9): Scientists now believe that “the blob,” a mass of warm water that persisted off the Pacific Coast from California to Alaska from 2014 to 2016, led to the starvation of an estimated 1 million common murres, a normally resilient seabird. The warm waters likely reduced and changed phytoplankton communities — an essential part of the marine food web. But that’s not all. The warm waters increased the metabolism — and the appetite — of big fish like pollock and salmon. That demand spike crashed populations of forage fish that murres usually find plentiful. Tufted puffins, Cassin’s auklets, sea lions and baleen whales also suffered losses, although the murres were hit worst.

(10): Most recently a prolonged marine heatwave off the coast of Alaska led to the closure of region’s commercial Pacific cod fishery for 2020, the first time that’s ever happened. When you cancel whole fisheries, that really impacts people’s lives and livelihoods.

(11): What We Don’t Know: Scientists have enough information now to tell us that we need to quickly change course. But there’s still a lot to learn about how warming temperatures will affect myriad species in the sea, not to mention weather patterns and coastal economies. One current line of research is to better understand how ocean warming affects weather. We know that a warmer ocean means more water evaporates into the atmosphere and that makes weather more severe because humidity drives storms. We would like to quantify this. So how much worse is weather now and how bad will it be? Some of that information will come from existing systems – Argo for example3.

(12): ARGO: We live in a time of great change, and the ocean is telling us these stories mostly through the Argo floats. This global network of nearly 3,900 floating sensors can measure temperature, salinity and pressure at varying depths across the world’s oceans. But in the Southern Ocean, Russell works with an even more advanced group of biogeochemical sensors. They measure nitrates, which can tell researchers about the building blocks of nutrients for the food web. They also measure oxygen, “how the ocean is breathing,” she says, and pH, which helps tell the carbon content of the water.

(13): The Arctic is one place where this technology would play a particularly valuable role. It’s so shallow in many places, and under ice for so much of the year, that we haven’t really been able to get a big float array up there but the Arctic is critical to our national interest and it’s relatively unstudied. There’s plenty to keep researchers busy, but the rest of us also need to act quickly to reduce greenhouse gas emissions because, the researchers of the Advances in Atmospheric Sciences study concluded, the oceans are so vast that they’ll require years to dissipate all of this excess heat and register the changes we’re starting to make today. Cutting emissions, they wrote, is the only way to reduce “the risks to humans and other life on Earth.

Joellen | Leadership Programs
JOELLEN RUSSEL

PART-2: CRITICAL COMMENTARY

A prior Revelator article citing Joellen Russel on the warming of the ocean by Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) was published in December 2020. It is reviewed on this site in a related post: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/12/14/earths-warming-oceans/ . Briefly, what we find in that review is as follows:

(1): THE ARTICLE MAKES EXTENSIVE USE OF THE UNSUPPORTED ASSUMPTION THAT ALL DEEP OCEAN WARMING FOUND IN THE DATA CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING (AGW). NO EVIDENCE IS PROVIDED FOR THAT ATTRIBUTION.

(2): A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE IN THAT PRESUMED ATTRIBUTION IS, AS THE AUTHOR APPARENTLY CONCEDES ABOVE IN THIS ARTICLE, THAT THE OCEAN IS A VERY LARGE PLACE IN RELATION TO THE LAND AND ATMOSPHERE OF OUR HABITAT. AS NOTED IN THAT RELATED POST, “THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE OCEAN TOGETHER WEIGH 1.36E18 METRIC TONNES OF WHICH THE OCEAN IS 99.62% AND THE ATMOSPHERE 0.38%”.

(3): IT IS AN EXTREME FORM OF THE ATMOSPHERE BIAS IN CLIMATE SCIENCE TO ASSUME THAT ALL TEMPERATURE CHANGES IN THE OCEAN EVEN IN THE ABYSSAL OCEAN, ARE THE CREATION OF THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2. THIS KIND OF ATMOSPHERE BIAS IN CLIMATE SCIENCE IN THE EVALUATION OF OCEAN TEMPERATURE DYNAMICS, AS FOR EXAMPLE THE BLOB, IS EXPLORED IN A RELATED POST ON THIS SITE: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/03/14/atmosphere-bias/

(4): THAT THE OCEAN CONTAINS SIGNIFICANTLY LARGER SOURCES OF HEAT IN THE FORM OF SUBMARINE VOLCANISM, MANTLE PLUMES, AND HYDROTHERMAL VENTS IS DESCRIBED IN A RELATED POST ON THIS SITE: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/01/20/offshore-hydrocarbon-seeps/ AND DISPLAYED IN THE YOUTUBE VIDEO BELOW. THE EXISTENCE OF THESE HEAT SOURCES MAKES IT NECESSARY THAT THE ATTRIBUTION OF OCEAN WARMING TO THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2 MUST PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT THE ATTRIBUTION. IT CANNOT BE ASSUMED THAT ALL TEMPERATURE CHANGES IN THE OCEAN CAN BE UNDERSTOOD IN TERMS OF ATMOSPHERIC PHENOMENA.

(5): THE THEORY OF ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE (AGW) IS ABOUT A SURFACE PHENOMENON THAT EXPLAINS A LONG TERM RISE IN GLOBAL MEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE (GMST) IN TERMS OF THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2. IT IS FURTHER CLAIMED THAT THE STRENGTH OF THE THEORY OF AGW DERIVES FROM THE MATCH IN TERMS OF EQUILIBRIUM CLIMATE SENSITIVITY BETWEEN THE OBSERVED LONG TERM TRENDS IN MEAN OCEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND THE THEORETICAL GREENHOUSE EFFECT AND AN AIRBORNE FRACTION OF 50% OF THE CO2 IN FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS. THE ASSUMED AVAILABILITY OF SUCH LARGE AMOUNTS OF EXTRA HEAT IN THIS EQUATION, ENOUGH TO HEAT LARGE SEGMENTS OF THE DEEP OCEAN IS INCONSISTENT WITH THIS THEORY.

(6): NOAA DATA ON OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE PRESENTED IN A RELATED POST ON THIS SITE: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/10/06/ohc/ . THE DATA SHOW THAT: {As expected, the annual data at the 700M depth shows greater volatility and uncertainty than the smoothed Pentadal data for the 2000M depth. An additional difference seen in the case of the Pacific is that the steady and sustained upward trend in OHC at 2000M is not found in the 700M data where no trend is evident until the 1990’s. This distinction is seen more clearly in the trend profiles where we find that in the smoothed data for 2000M, the moving decadal trends are all positive whereas in the data for 700 meters we see violent and unsynchronized swings of cooling and warming periods with North cooling while the South warms and vice versa. This disconnect between North and South is not seen in the smoothed data for 2000M. The smoothed full span data for 2000M indicate steadily rising Ocean Heat Content (OHC) for both the Northern and Southern segments in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. A very different pattern is seen in the Indian Ocean where the whole of the gain in OHC at either depth derives from warming in the South with no trend seen in the OHC of the North. The trend pattern seen for the annual 700M data in the Atlantic and Pacific where the upward trend in OHC begins in the 1990s is seen in the Indian Ocean data at both depths and at both annual and pentadal time scales. THESE PATTERNS IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH A UNIFORM ATMOSPHERIC SOURCE OF HEAT.

(7): MARINE HEAT WAVES: THE CREATION OF THE MARINE HEAT WAVE PHENOMENON CAN PERHAPS BE UNDERSTOOD IN TERMS RISING GMST. HOWEVER, THE MUCH GREATER HEAT ENERGY NEEDED FOR DEEP OCEAN TEMPERATURE CHANGES OF A LARGE MASS OF WATER REQUIRES A PRESENTATION OF THE HEAT BALANCE THAT EXPLAINS BOTH RISING GMST AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. WITHOUT THAT HEAT BALANCE THE ATTRIBUTION OF ALL OBSERVED OCEAN TEMPERTURE CHANGES TO ATMOSPHERIC PHENOMENA IS NOT CREDIBLE FOR TWO REASONS. THEY ARE (1) THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY INVOLVED IN OCEAN WARMING, AND (2) THE KNOWN EXTENSIVE HEAT SOURCES IN THE OCEAN ITSELF.

map_plate_tectonics_world_med

LIST OF RELATED POSTS (RP)

RP#1: OCEAN HEAT CONTENT DATA AND PATTERNS: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/10/06/ohc/

RP#2: MARINE HEAT WAVES: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/01/30/ohw/

RP#3: THE BLOB: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/03/14/atmosphere-bias/

RP#4: AGW IS WARMING THE DEEP OCEAN: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/10/14/climate-change-is-warming-the-deep-ocean/

RP#5: WARMING OF THE SOUTHERN CIRCUMPOLAR CURRENT: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/08/11/the-ice-shelves-of-antarctica/

RP#6: THE INTERNAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY ISSUE IN CLIMATE SCIENCE: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/07/16/the-internal-variability-issue/

indian_ocean

The Conversion of a Climate-Change Skeptic: By RICHARD A. MULLER. CALL me a converted skeptic.

LINK TO SOURCE DOCUMENT: https://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/30/opinion/the-conversion-of-a-climate-change-skeptic.html

In conversation with Professor Richard Muller, Berkeley Earth - YouTube

(

Abbreviations: AGW = Anthropogenic Global Warming, ETCW = Early Twentieth Century Warming anomaly,

1) Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate studies that, in my mind, threw doubt on the very existence of global warming. {RESPONSE(1): What were these problems and how were they resolved? This is a critically important issue without which this statement is just emotional talk and not information}

(2) Last year, following an intensive research effort involving a dozen scientists, I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct. {RESPONSE(2): All global temperature reconstructions and satellite data show a rising trend in global mean temperature and that therefore that “global warming is real”. Not sure why this determination required intensive research involving dozens of scientists}

(3) I’m now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause. {RESPONSE(3): Whether global warming is real is not the issue. The issue is human cause by way of fossil fuel emissions. The step further is not a step further. It is the essence of the theory of AGW. The theory holds that humans are the cause of the current warming by way of rising atmospheric CO2 driven by the fossil fuel emissions of humans and that therefore it can and must be attenuated with the “climate action” of not burning fossil fuels}. This has been the theory since Callendar 1938 and in modern times raised to a level of fear by Hansen 1988. That “humans are almost entirely the cause” is its essence and this it is well known. The data show, and has shown for decades, that the correlation between CMIP5 forcings and temperature is almost the same whether or not we include natural forcings: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/31/cmip5forcings/ .


(4) My total turnaround, in such a short time, is the result of careful and objective analysis by the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, which I founded with my daughter Elizabeth. Our results show that the average temperature of the earth’s land has risen by two and a half degrees Fahrenheit over the past 250 years, including an increase of one and a half degrees over the most recent 50 years. {RESPONSE(4): The “past 250 years” from 2012 takes us to the 1760 “pre-industrial” start year for AGW found in the first IPCC report in 1990. Since then the IPCC has changed the “pre-industrial” beginning of AGW to 1850. The 1.18C warming since pre-industrial in 2012 is inconsistent with mainstream climate science where the amount of warming from pre-industrial to 2020 was 1.2C. As for the warming of “one and a half degrees” in 50 years from 1963 to 2012, the reason for citing this 50-year warming trend is unclear and it leaves readers with a “so what” puzzle.}

(5) Moreover, it appears likely that essentially all of this increase results from the human emission of greenhouse gases. {RESPONSE(5): Here we find that what is a bedrock foundational concept in AGW climate science only receives a rating of “appears likely”. This assessment implies that human cause, the heart and soul of the AGW climate action movement against fossil fuels that was so strongly supported in Item#3 above, is now weakened from “humans are almost entirely the cause” to “appears likely”.}

(6) These findings are stronger than those of the IPCC that defines the scientific and diplomatic consensus on global warming. In its 2007 report, the I.P.C.C. concluded only that most of the warming of the prior 50 years could be attributed to humans. It was possible, according to the IPCC consensus statement, that the warming before 1956 could be because of changes in solar activity, and that even a substantial part of the more recent warming could be natural. {RESPONSE(6): With regard to “the warming before 1956”, that era of global temperature data is understood in climate science as the ETCW anomaly (Early Twentieth Century Warming) that is not explained by the theory of fossil fueled human caused warming. This gross inconsistency with an important issue in mainstream climate science does not present the image of someone who has seen the light and is now a “converted skeptic”. ETCW LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/10/09/the-etcw-issue-in-climate-science/ } . It appears that the “stronger than the IPCC” findings reported here is a consequence of the absence of the ETCW issue in the interpretation of the temperature data.}

(7) Our Berkeley Earth approach used sophisticated statistical methods developed largely by our lead scientist, Robert Rohde, which allowed us to determine earth land temperature much further back in time. {RESPONSE(7A): The result of “sophisticated statistical methods” curiously shows a temperature reconstruction that looks pretty much like the existing reconstructions (chart below) suggesting that existing reconstructions may have played a role in their estimation. However, this strong agreement supports the claim that the author, once a denier, having verified the temperarure reconstruction to his satisfaction, has changed from a climate change denier to a climate change believer. Yet, that it is warming is not the real issue in AGW climate change as it has warmed before multiple times during the Holocene prior to the Industrial Revolution: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/06/11/chaoticholocene/ . The real issue is the “A” in AGW – that it is human caused by way of fossil fuel emissions and that therefore it can and must be attenuated by humans with climate action in the form of moving the world’s energy infrastructure from fossil fuels to renewables. It is not possible for an AGW skeptic to embrace this theory simply on the basis of a verification of the rate of warming}.

Annual Temperature Anomoly

{RESPONSE(7B): As for going further back in time beyond 1950 or even beyond1970, the analysis is in violation of the well established ETCW issue in climate science previously mentioned. Tet another issue is that, unlike the Hadcrut reconstruction, where the work of Colin Morice provides the uncertainty in the data estimation LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/09/17/hadcrut4-uncertainty/ , this essential information is not provided in the new reconstruction offered with “sophisticated statistical methods”. It is noted here that there is significant disagreement in climate science with respect to the “pre-industrial” reference year and reference temperature that marks the beginning of AGW. The estmation of the pre-industrial year has evolved from 1760 to 1850 and then to 1950 by NASA and 1970s by climate scientist Peter Cox: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/12/25/earth-day-wisdom/. The estimation of uncertainty is an important and essential aspect of statistical analysis.}

(8) We carefully studied issues raised by skeptics: biases from urban heating (we duplicated our results using rural data alone), from data selection (prior groups selected fewer than 20 percent of the available temperature stations, we used virtually 100 percent), from poor station quality (we separately analyzed good stations and poor ones) and from human intervention and data adjustment (our work is completely automated and hands-off). In our papers we demonstrate that none of these potentially troublesome effects unduly biased our conclusions. {RESPONSE(8) The comparison of the new temperature reconstruction thus improved with the new methodology of evaluating station quality and using a hands off approach does not appear to have made a significant difference to the warming rates when compared with the existing reconstructions as seen in the chart above. The station quality and other improvements made may have reduced the uncertainty in the estimate, however, but no uncertainty information is provided}.

(9) The historic temperature pattern we observed has abrupt dips that match the emissions of known explosive volcanic eruptions; the particulates from such events reflect sunlight, make for beautiful sunsets and cool the earth’s surface for a few years. There are small, rapid variations attributable to El Niño and other ocean currents such as the Gulf Stream; because of such oscillations, the “flattening” of the recent temperature rise that some people claim is not, in our view, statistically significant. {RESPONSE (9): Here the author tries to explain away the so called “hiatus” in warming that had been proposed by skeptics as evidence against AGW. The claimed hiatus is a 14-year period from 1998 to 2012 when no warming is seen in the data. This skeptical argument has no merit on the basis of the generally accepted definiton of climate by the WMO as long term (more than 30 years). The long term warming trend may be the creation of many short term warming, cooling, and flat periods that in themselves do not have an AGW interpretation. The GIF image below is taken from a related post on global warming data: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2021/01/11/global-warming-dec2020/ shows strong evidence for long term global warming from 1979 to 2020 but with wild fluctuations in decadal warming that include warming, cooling, and neither warming nor cooling. Such short term fluctuations are understood as Internal Climate Variability” LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/07/16/the-internal-variability-issue/ . They have no interpretation in terms of AGW and they don’t require rationalization in terms of volcanic eruption arguments that are in fact invalidated anyway because of circular reasoning (A hypothesis derived from the data cannot be tested with the same data). The “hiatus” debate in AGW is a non sequitur. It does not appear that the sophisticated statistical methods used in the transition from skeptic to believer are as sophisticated as previously thought. As a footnote, with respect to the statement about “El Nino and other ocean currents”, kindly note that El Nino is not an ocean current.}.

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(10) What has caused the gradual but systematic rise of two and a half degrees? We tried fitting the shape to simple math functions (exponentials, polynomials), to solar activity and even to rising functions like world population. By far the best match was to the record of atmospheric carbon dioxide, measured from atmospheric samples and air trapped in polar ice. Just as important, our record is long enough that we could search for the fingerprint of solar variability, based on the historical record of sunspots. That fingerprint is absent. Although the I.P.C.C. allowed for the possibility that variations in sunlight could have ended the “Little Ice Age,” a period of cooling from the 14th century to about 1850, our data argues strongly that the temperature rise of the past 250 years cannot be attributed to solar changes. This conclusion is, in retrospect, not too surprising; we’ve learned from satellite measurements that solar activity changes the brightness of the sun very little. How definite is the attribution to humans? The carbon dioxide curve gives a better match than anything else we’ve tried. Its magnitude is consistent with the calculated greenhouse effect — extra warming from trapped heat radiation. These facts don’t prove causality and they shouldn’t end skepticism, but they raise the bar: to be considered seriously, an alternative explanation must match the data at least as well as carbon dioxide does. Adding methane, a second greenhouse gas, to our analysis doesn’t change the results. Moreover, our analysis does not depend on large, complex global climate models, the huge computer programs that are notorious for their hidden assumptions and adjustable parameters. Our result is based simply on the close agreement between the shape of the observed temperature rise and the known greenhouse gas increase. It’s a scientist’s duty to be properly skeptical. I still find that much, if not most, of what is attributed to climate change is speculative, exaggerated or just plain wrong. I’ve analyzed some of the most alarmist claims, and my skepticism about them hasn’t changed. Hurricane Katrina cannot be attributed to global warming. The number of hurricanes hitting the United States has been going down, not up; likewise for intense tornadoes. Polar bears aren’t dying from receding ice, and the Himalayan glaciers aren’t going to melt by 2035. And it’s possible that we are currently no warmer than we were a thousand years ago, during the “Medieval Warm Period” or “Medieval Optimum,” an interval of warm conditions known from historical records and indirect evidence like tree rings. And the recent warm spell in the United States happens to be more than offset by cooling elsewhere in the world, so its link to “global” warming is weaker than tenuous. The careful analysis by our team is laid out in five scientific papers now online at BerkeleyEarth.org. That site also shows our chart of temperature from 1753 to the present, with its clear fingerprint of volcanoes and carbon dioxide, but containing no component that matches solar activity. As carbon dioxide emissions increase, the temperature should continue to rise. I expect the rate of warming to proceed at a steady pace, about one and a half degrees over land in the next 50 years, less if the oceans are included. But if China continues its rapid economic growth and its vast use of coal (it typically adds one new gigawatt per month), then that same warming could take place in less than 20 years. Science is that narrow realm of knowledge that, in principle, is universally accepted. I embarked on this analysis to answer questions that, to my mind, had not been answered. I hope that the Berkeley Earth analysis will help settle the scientific debate regarding global warming and its human causes. Then comes the difficult part: agreeing across the political and diplomatic spectrum about what can and should be done.

Annual Temperature Anomoly

{RESPONSE (10): Here, in the critical issue of human cause, we find that all that sophisticated statistics used to test the data against a climate denial null hypothesis has suddenly vanished. That warming correlates with rising atmospheric CO2 is claimed to establish human cause with the critical confirmation bias assumption that the rise in atmospheric CO2 is human caused.

In related posts on this site we show that this assumed correlation between fossil fuel emissions and observed changes in atmospheric composition at an annual time scale is not found in the data: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/12/29/climate-scientist-explains-the-carbon-budget/ .

That the the climate change denier has seen the light and embraced the theory of Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) where the key word is Anthropogenic and the key implication is the need to get rid of fossil fuels, can now be further interpreted to mean that the denier that had used sophisticated statistical analysis to embrace the warming hypothesis, now needs to abandon sophisticated statistical analysis to embrace the essence of the climate movement in the form of anti fossil fuel activism. In summary, the Berkeley Earth project appears to be a staged drama concocted by the climate movement as a response to what is called climate change denialism to show that when the good denier takes the trouble to look at the data he gives up his denialism ways and so you can too.

RF-FIG1
Don't let confirmation bias narrow your perspective — News Literacy Project

GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE RECONSTRUCTIONS COMPARED {BY NOAA}

Annual Temperature Anomoly

THIS POST IS A PRESENTATION OF SOURCES OF CARBON TRANSFERS FROM THE MANTLE TO THE SURFACE BY WAY OF SEEPAGE, HYDROTHERMAL VENTS, HYDROTHERMAL PLUMES, SUBMARINE VOLCANISM, AND ASSOCATED GEOLOGICAL ACTIVITY. THE CONTEXT OF THIS STUDY IS ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING (AGW) WHERE FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS ARE ASSUMED TO BE THE SOLE SOURCE OF CARBON EXTERNAL TO THE CARBON CYCLE.

THE ANALYSIS IS PRESENTED IN TWO PARTS. PART-1 IS A SUMMARY AND INTERPRETATION OF THE DATA PRESENTED IN PART-2 IN THE CONTEXT OF AGW CLIMATE CHANGE: PART-2 IS A LITERATURE REVIEW ON THE SUBJECT OF GEOLOGICAL FLOWS THAT TRANSFER CARBON FROM THE MANTLE TO THE SURFACE. THE GEOLOGICAL FLOWS PRESENTED BELOW INCLUDE HYDROCARBON SEEPS, SUBMARINE VOLCANISM, AND HYDROTHERMAL VENTS AND PLUMES.

THIS POST IS A CONTINUATION OF STUDIES PRESENTED IN RELATED POSTS LINKED BELOW WHERE THE ASSUMED CAUSAL CONNECTION BETWEEN FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS AND ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION IS TESTED.

LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/21/the-case-against-fossil-fuels/

LINK#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/12/29/climate-scientist-explains-the-carbon-budget/

LINK#3: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/11/annual-changes-in-mlo-co2/

LINK#4: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/08/27/carbonflows/ .

Hydrothermal Vents / Undersea New Zealand / Ocean Floor / Science ...

PART-1: THE CASE AGAINST FOSSIL FUELS AS A SOLE SOURCE OF VIRGIN CARBON THAT HAS NO 13C or 14C ISOTOPES AND THAT IS NOT A PART OF THE CARBON CYCLE.

In a related post: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/07/31/planetary-environmentalism-in-the-anthropocene/ we note that although climate change is understood and preached on a planetary scale, humans, along with the rest of nature and the part of the planet where we live are rather insignificant in the planetary context. To quote the related post: {The crust of the planet where we live contains 0.201% of the planet’s carbon some of which appear as carbon lifeforms such as humans, flora, and fauna and some of which appear as long dead life forms turned into fossil fuels. Yet another portion, not generally mentioned, is the continued physcal leakage of carbon from the inner planet to the crust.}

The other 99.8% of the carbon inventory of the planet is in the inner planet consisting of the mantle and core. This inner planet is the sole source of carbon for the planet. It is from this huge inventory that carbon has been continually leaking out to the crust where the carbon has created carbon life forms, an atmosphere that contans CO2, and long dead fossilized carbon life forms with their carbon remains used as fuel by the current life forms. The narrow and single minded focus on fossil fuels as the only source of carbon that can change atmospheric composition is inconsistent with the greater source of geological carbon under the ocean.

The issue in this post is that fossil fuel combustion by the industrial economy as the sole source of CO2 that can explain observed changes in atmospheric composition is inconsistent with natural geological flows of carbon from the ocean to the atmosphere. Climate science does take volcanic activity into consideration but these analyses are made only when a periodic temperature anomaly needs to be explained as for example the ETCW (Early 20th Century Warming anomaly) and only with land volcanoes. More than 80% of our volcanoes are under the ocean and these submarine volcanoes are more active than land volcanoes. Our volcanic activity is mostly submarine. The consideration of carbon sources other than fossil fuel emissions is made necessary by the absence of empirical evidence that can explain changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration exclusively in terms of fossil fuel emissions. This gap in climate science is presented in a related post: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/12/29/climate-scientist-explains-the-carbon-budget/

IN OTHER RELATED POSTS WE DESCRIBE (1) OCEAN ACIDIFICATION IN TERMS OF THE ABILITY OF THE OCEAN TO ACIDIFY ITSELF: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/08/14/ocean-volcanism/ AND IN TERMS OF THE PETM EVENT IN PALEO CLIMATOLOGY WHRE WE FIND THAT GEOLOGICAL CARBON HAD ACIDIFIED THE OCEAN AND CAUSED ATMOSPHERIC CO2 TO RISE: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/03/20/an-atmosphere-bias-part-2/

HERE WE PRESENT A LITERATURE SURVEY ON THE SUBJECT OF GEOLOGICAL SOURCES OF CARBON FLOW FROM THE OCEAN TO THE ATMOSPHERE. OFFSHORE SEEPS, SUBMARINE VOLCANISM, AND HYDROTHERMAL VENTS AND PLUMES ARE STUDIED AS CANDIDATES FOR GEOLOGICAL SOURCES OF CARBON THAT CAN CHANGE ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION.

THE ICELAND GREENLAND MANTLE PLUME
Hydrocarbon Seep Detection - SEG Wiki

2A: OFFSHORE SEEPS

MacDonald, Ian R., et al. “Remote sensing inventory of active oil seeps and chemosynthetic communities in the northern Gulf of Mexico.” (1996): 27-37. We compiled locations of probable oil slicks from interpretation of a Space Shuttle photograph, a Landsat Thematic Mapper scene, three European Radar Satellite scenes, and collections of floating oil and observations of sea floor seeps from submarines. These locations were ranked according to recurrence of evidence for natural oil seepage among the various data sets. As a result, we have verified 43 biological communities that depend on hydrocarbon seeps and 63 locations where remote sensing data indicate that sea floor sources are capable of producing perennial oil slicks. Monitoring individual seeps over time contributes to understanding the natural loading of hydrocarbons in the marine environment. The seeps also form a natural test bed for development of sensors and techniques to detect oil floating on the sea. Remote detection of natural seepage extends the probable range of chemosynthetic communities dependent on hydrocarbon seepage in the northern Gulf of Mexico. This technique for detecting areas of macroseepage is potentially applicable to hydrocarbon basins in which oil production is in an earlier stage of development than the Gulf of Mexico.

Qualitative relationships between rates of fluid-gas expulsion to the... |  Download Scientific Diagram
CHEMOSYNTHETIC COMMUNITIES

MacDonald, I. R., et al. “Transfer of hydrocarbons from natural seeps to the water column and atmosphere.” Geofluids 2.2 (2002): 95-107. Results from surface geochemical prospecting, seismic exploration and satellite remote sensing have documented oil and gas seeps in marine basins around the world. Seeps are a dynamic component of the carbon cycle and can be important indicators for economically significant hydrocarbon deposits. The northern Gulf of Mexico contains hundreds of active seeps that can be studied experimentally with the use of submarines and Remotely Operated Vehicles (ROV). Hydrocarbon flux through surface sediments profoundly alters benthic ecology and seafloor geology at seeps. In water depths of 500–2000m, rapid gas flux results in shallow, metastable deposits of gas hydrate, which reduce sediment porosity and affect seepage rates. This paper details the processes that occur during the final, brief transition — as oil and gas escape from the seafloor, rise through the water and dissolve, are consumed by microbial processes, or disperse into the atmosphere. The geology of the upper sediment column determines whether discharge is rapid and episodic, as occurs in mud volcanoes, or more gradual and steady, as occurs where the seep orifice is plugged with gas hydrate. In both cases, seep oil and gas appear to rise through the water in close proximity instead of separating. Chemical alteration of the oil is relatively minor during transit through the water column, but once at the sea surface its more volatile components rapidly evaporate. Gas bubbles rapidly dissolve as they rise, although observations suggest that oil coatings on the bubbles inhibit dissolution. At the sea surface, the floating oil forms slicks, detectable by remote sensing, whose origins are laterally within ∼1000 m of the seafloor vent. This contradicts the much larger distance predicted if oil drops rise through a 500 m water column at an expected rate of ∼0.01 m s−1 while subjected to lateral currents of ∼0.2 m s−1 or greater. It indicates that oil rises with the gas bubbles at speeds of ∼0.15 m s−1 all the way to the surface. Hydrocarbon migration through shallow marine sediment is a widespread phenomenon on the continental margins throughout the world. Over geological time, the hydrocarbon seep process returns large amounts of carbon from thermogenic sources to the biosphere, but the ‘best’ estimate for global input is 2.5E8 (250 million) L per year of oil entering the world oceans from natural seepage. However, this estimate was based on relatively few data from real‐world seeps. Satellite remote sensing imagery readily detects layers of floating oil that form over active seeps (Espedal & Wahl 1999), providing a means to estimate the rates at which seeps are flowing (MacDonald et al. 1993) and to survey the numbers of hydrocarbon seeps across oil‐producing regions (Kornacki et al. 1994; MacDonald et al. 1996). The Gulf of Mexico contributes a large fraction of the global total estimated by Kvenvolden & Harbaugh (1983), it is probable that their estimate should be revised upwards. A better understanding of seep geology and geochemistry will improve the accuracy of new estimates of global and regional seep rates. In particular, factors that cause seepage rates to vary over time need to be examined. Seeps form where migration is rapid and ongoing. Organic enrichment from the oil and gas produces profound alteration of surface sediments, including the precipitation of carbonates and colonization by dense aggregations of chemosynthetic fauna.

Mityagina, Marina, and Olga Lavrova. “Oil Slicks from Natural Hydrocarbon Seeps in the Southeastern Black Sea, Their Drift and Fate as Observed via Remote Sensing.” IGARSS 2018-2018 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium. IEEE, 2018. The paper discusses our studies of oil pollution due to natural hydrocarbon seeps on the seafloor in the South-Eastern Black Sea. The patterns of surface oil pollution of the South-Eastern Black Sea are analyzed and described. Trajectories of oil slicks from seabed seepages are analyzed on the base of satellite remote sensing data for 2010-2017. The quantitative assessment of inter-annual, seasonal and spatial variability of natural oil pollution of the region of interest is performed. Maps of oil pollution risks of sea surface and shores in the South-Eastern Black Sea are created. The precise estimation of the actual seafloor source location is made on the base of satellite data. The impact of dynamic and circulation processes and natural factors (current meandering, vortical activity, and wind patterns) on the stretching, spread, and disappearance of oil films is discussed.

Kvenvolden, K. A., and C. K. Cooper. “Natural seepage of crude oil into the marine environment.” Geo-marine letters 23.3-4 (2003): 140-146. Recent global estimates of crude-oil seepage rates suggest that about 47% of crude oil currently entering the marine environment is from natural seeps, whereas 53% results from leaks and spills during the extraction, transportation, refining, storage, and utilization of petroleum. The amount of natural crude-oil seepage is currently estimated to be 600,000 metric tons per year, with a range of uncertainty of 200,000 to 2,000,000 metric tons per year. Thus, natural oil seeps may be the single most important source of oil that enters the ocean, exceeding each of the various sources of crude oil that enters the ocean through its exploitation by humankind.

D’souza, N. A., et al. “Elevated surface chlorophyll associated with natural oil seeps in the Gulf of Mexico.” Nature Geoscience 9.3 (2016): 215-218. Natural hydrocarbon seeps occur on the sea floor along continental margins, and account for up to 47% of the oil released into the oceans. Hydrocarbon seeps are known to support local benthic productivity2, but little is known about their impact on photosynthetic organisms in the overlying water column. Here we present observations with high temporal and spatial resolution of chlorophyll concentrations in the northern Gulf of Mexico using in situ and shipboard flow-through fluorescence measurements from May to July 2012, as well as an analysis of ocean-colour satellite images from 1997 to 2007. All three methods reveal elevated chlorophyll concentrations in waters influenced by natural hydrocarbon seeps. Temperature and nutrient profiles above seep sites suggest that nutrient-rich water upwells from depth, which may facilitate phytoplankton growth and thus support the higher chlorophyll concentrations observed. Because upwelling occurs at natural seep locations around the world1,2,3, we conclude that offshore hydrocarbon seeps, and perhaps other types of deep ocean vents and seeps at depths exceeding 1,000 m, may influence biogeochemistry and productivity of the overlying water column.

Do volcanic eruptions happen underwater? : Ocean Exploration Facts: NOAA  Office of Ocean Exploration and Research

PART-2B: SUBMARINE VOLCANISM

McBirney, Alexander R. “Factors governing the nature of submarine volcanism.” Bulletin volcanologique 26.1 (1963): 455-469. Examination of the volumetric expansion of vesiculating water vapor at temperatures and pressure corresponding to those of basaltic and rhyolitic magmas erupting under various depths of sea water indicates that explosive ash formation is unlikely at depths greater than 500 meters. Rhyolitic magmas could produce ash at greater depths, but only if the water content were greatly enriched. Sills are likely to be more common than surface lava flows in level area of weakly consolidated sediments. Breaching of the sedimentary layer and the growth of seamounts may be related to block faulting or seismically induced slumping of the sedimentary blanket on the slopes of volcanic domes. Conditions favor transport of hot hyaloclastites in density currents on the slopes of sea mounts and may account for archipelagic aprons.

Wakita, H., et al. “Origin of methane-rich natural gas in Japan: formation of gas fields due to large-scale submarine volcanism.” Applied geochemistry 5.3 (1990): 263-278. Eighty-seven samples of CH4-rich natural gas were collected from commercial gas and oil wells in Japan. The3He/4He and4He/20Ne ratios, chemical composition of major, minor and trace components (CH4, C2H6, C3H8, CO2, N2, O2, Ar, He, Ne and H2), and the C isotope composition of CH4 are reported. Most3He/4He ratios of natural gases in the forearc regions are as low as (1–4) × 10−7 and are comparable to those from large gas reservoirs in other parts of the world, suggesting that the CH4 there has a biogenic origin. In contrast, the3He/4He ratios of samples from gas reservoirs in the “Green Tuff” region along the Japan Sea vary considerably: high ratios are observed for gases from volcaniclastic reservoirs in the deeper zone, and low ratios are found in shallow reservoirs of sedimentary rocks. The highest3He/4He ratio, (9.37 ± 0.34) × 10−6, is equivalent to the highest value in the subduction zone. The high4He/20Ne ratios observed in most samples suggest that there is no significant atmospheric contamination. An overall regularity between3He/4He ratios and δ13CCH4 values is observed for Japanese natural gases. The δ13CCH4 value of gas with a high3He/4He ratio reaches about −35‰, and that of gas with a low ratio is about −75‰. Total C to3He ratios (ΣC/3He) vary over a wide range (6 × 108−>9 × 1012), but those of gases in volcaniclastic reservoirs are in a rather narrow range with a value of ∼2 × 109, coinciding with that of a mantle reservoir. The relation between the observed3He/4He ratios and δ13CCH4 values of gases, together with their ΣC/3He ratios, suggests that CH4-rich gases in volcaniclastic reservoirs are a mixture of gases from two sources, magmatic and biogenic. The formation of gas reservoirs with high3He/4He ratios may be attributed to large-scale submarine volcanism that occurred in the Middle Miocene. Gas separation from volcaniclastic rocks is expected to have occurred during the process of sea water-rock interaction at a high temperature over a long period in a submarine environment. The Middle Miocene volcanic episode which occurred under extensional stress was quite different from the present arc volcanism, and is thought to have been closely related to the opening of the Japan Sea. (LINK TO MID MIOCENE POST: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/01/17/miocene/ )

Williams, Stanley N., et al. “Global carbon dioxide emission to the atmosphere by volcanoes.” Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 56.4 (1992): 1765-1770. Global emission of carbon dioxide by subaerial volcanoes is calculated, using from volcanic gas analyses and SO2 flux, to be from passive degassing and from eruptions. Volcanic CO2 presently represents only 0.22% of anthropogenic emissions but may have contributed to significant “greenhouse” effects at times in Earth history. Models of climate response to CO2 increases may be tested against geological data.

Bluth, G. J. S., et al. “The contribution of explosive volcanism to global atmospheric sulphur dioxide concentrations.” Nature 366.6453 (1993): 327-329. SULPHUR dioxide from volcanic eruptions may have a significant effect on the Earth’s climate and atmospheric chemistry, and it is therefore important to quantify outgassing rates for all types of volcanic activity. Non-explosive volcanoes (for example, Mount Etna) outgas at relatively constant rates, providing an annual flux of about 9 million tons (Mt) SO2 (ref. 1). By contrast, the outgassing from volcanoes prone to explosive eruptions (such as Mount Pinatubo) is sporadic and much more difficult to quantify. The total annual volcanic SO2 flux is therefore poorly constrained, with ground-based estimates1–8 ranging from 1.5 to 50 Mt–up to onequarter of the estimated current anthropogenic contribution. The Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer aboard the NASA satellite Nimbus 7 recorded SO2emissions from explosive eruptions from November 1978 to May 1993. We use these data to show that the annual flux from explosive volcanism is of the order of 4 Mt SO2, less than half of the non-explosive output. Thus it seems that the total volcanic emission of SO2 to the Earth’s atmosphere is about 13 Mt yr−1, which is only 5–10% of the current anthropogenic flux.

Charlou, Jean‐Luc, and Jean‐Pierre Donval. “Hydrothermal methane venting between 12° N and 26° N along the Mid‐Atlantic Ridge.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 98.B6 (1993): 9625-9642. Hydrographic surveys along the Mid‐Atlantic Ridge (MAR) between 12°N and 26°N, carried out from 1984 to 1990, show a variable pattern of CH4‐rich water column plumes. The vertical distribution of CH4 at stations located every 20–40 km is presented along this 1200‐km‐long section of the MAR. CH4 venting is clearly demonstrated. CH4‐enriched fluids rise from vents as plumes; spreading is confined to the axial valley due to the topography of the MAR. CH4 contents from 45 nmol to 675 nmol/kg are measured in the buoyant plumes above the two active hydrothermal sites (MARK 23°N; TAG 26°N) known at present, whereas CH4 anomalies up to 3.6 nmol/kg are typically observed in plumes emitted either on the inner floor, on the walls, and/or at the top of the rift mountains along the studied ridge section. CH4 concentrations (45 μmol to 144 μmol/kg) in MARK and TAG vent fluids are of the same order of magnitude as those found in the East Pacific Rise fluids. Even though CH4 is known to be unstable with respect to oxidation by dissolved oxygen, and in spite of its microbial oxidation in plumes, these results confirm CH4 to be a good indicator to track hydrothermal plumes and to map the variation of hydrothermal activity along mid oceanic ridges. Moreover, between 12° and 26°N along the MAR, CH4 results show that while hydrothermal activity is present everywhere along the ridge, it is predominant near fracture zones (FZ) (Kane FZ, 15°20′N FZ). Comparison of CH4 tracer with total dissolvable manganese (TDM) tracer in plumes allows us to differentiate subseafloor hydrothermal processes. The high TDM/CH4 found above TAG and MARK areas is indicative of basalt‐seawater interaction, while at 15°N the low TDM/CH4 provides evidence of fluid circulation in ultrabasic rocks. CH4 data confirm the association between mantle degassing, hydrothermal activity, and serpentinization along this 12°–26°N section of the Mid‐Atlantic Ridge.

Frey, Frederic A., et al. “Origin and evolution of a submarine large igneous province: the Kerguelen Plateau and Broken Ridge, southern Indian Ocean.” Earth and Planetary Science Letters 176.1 (2000): 73-89. Oceanic plateaus form by mantle processes distinct from those forming oceanic crust at divergent plate boundaries. Eleven drillsites into igneous basement of Kerguelen Plateau and Broken Ridge, including seven from the recent Ocean Drilling Program Leg 183 (1998–99) and four from Legs 119 and 120 (1987–88), show that the dominant rocks are basalts with geochemical characteristics distinct from those of mid-ocean ridge basalts. Moreover, the physical characteristics of the lava flows and the presence of wood fragments, charcoal, pollen, spores and seeds in the shallow water sediments overlying the igneous basement show that the growth rate of the plateau was sufficient to form subaerial landmasses. Most of the southern Kerguelen Plateau formed at ∼110 Ma, but the uppermost submarine lavas in the northern Kerguelen Plateau erupted during Cenozoic time. These results are consistent with derivation of the plateau by partial melting of the Kerguelen plume. Leg 183 provided two new major observations about the final growth stages of the Kerguelen Plateau. 1: At several locations, volcanism ended with explosive eruptions of volatile-rich, felsic magmas; although the total volume of felsic volcanic rocks is poorly constrained, the explosive nature of the eruptions may have resulted in globally significant effects on climate and atmospheric chemistry during the late-stage, subaerial growth of the Kerguelen Plateau. 2: At one drillsite, clasts of garnet–biotite gneiss, a continental rock, occur in a fluvial conglomerate intercalated within basaltic flows. Previously, geochemical and geophysical evidence has been used to infer continental lithospheric components within this large igneous province. A continental geochemical signature in an oceanic setting may represent deeply recycled crust incorporated into the Kerguelen plume or continental fragments dispersed during initial formation of the Indian Ocean during breakup of Gondwana. The clasts of garnet–biotite gneiss are the first unequivocal evidence of continental crust in this oceanic plateau. We propose that during initial breakup between India and Antarctica, the spreading center jumped northwards transferring slivers of the continental Indian plate to oceanic portions of the Antarctic plate.

Gamo, Toshitaka, et al. “Discovery of a new hydrothermal venting site in the southernmost Mariana Arc: Al-rich hydrothermal plumes and white smoker activity associated with biogenic methane.” Geochemical Journal 38.6 (2004): 527-534. This paper reports a series of studies leading to the discovery of a submarine hydrothermal field (called Nakayama Field) at an arc seamount (12°43′N, 143°32′E) in the southernmost part of the Mariana Trough, western Pacific Ocean. We first detected hydrothermal plumes characterized by water column anomalies of temperature, light transmission, Mn, Fe, Al, O2, CH4, and δ13C of CH4 above the summit caldera of the seamount. Then deep-tow camera surveys confirmed the existence of hydrothermal activity inside the caldera, and an ROV dive finally discovered white smoker-type fluid venting associated with vent fauna. A high concentration of aluminum in the plume and white smoker-type emissions imply acidic hydrothermal activity similar to that observed at the DESMOS Caldera in the eastern Manus Basin, Papua New Guinea. Anomalously low δ13C (CH4) of −38‰ of a vent fluid sample compared to other arc hydrothermal systems along the Izu-Bonin and Mariana Arcs suggests an incorporation of biogenic methane based on a subsurface microbial ecosystem

Kump, Lee R., and Mark E. Barley. “Increased subaerial volcanism and the rise of atmospheric oxygen 2.5 billion years ago.” Nature 448.7157 (2007): 1033-1036. The hypothesis that the establishment of a permanently oxygenated atmosphere at the Archaean–Proterozoic transition (∼2.5 billion years ago) occurred when oxygen-producing cyanobacteria evolved is contradicted by biomarker evidence for their presence in rocks 200 million years older. To sustain vanishingly low oxygen levels despite near-modern rates of oxygen production from ∼2.7–2.5 billion years ago thus requires that oxygen sinks must have been much larger than they are now. Here we propose that the rise of atmospheric oxygen occurred because the predominant sink for oxygen in the Archaean era—enhanced submarine volcanism—was abruptly and permanently diminished during the Archaean–Proterozoic transition. Observations3,4,5 are consistent with the corollary that subaerial volcanism only became widespread after a major tectonic episode of continental stabilization at the beginning of the Proterozoic. Submarine volcanoes are more reducing than subaerial volcanoes, so a shift from predominantly submarine to a mix of subaerial and submarine volcanism more similar to that observed today would have reduced the overall sink for oxygen and led to the rise of atmospheric oxygen. (BLOGGER’S NOTE: ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION DERIVED FROM SUBMARINE VOLCANISM).

Carazzo, G., E. Kaminski, and S. Tait. “On the rise of turbulent plumes: Quantitative effects of variable entrainment for submarine hydrothermal vents, terrestrial and extra terrestrial explosive volcanism.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 113.B9 (2008). The maximum height reached by a turbulent plume rising in a stratified environment is a key tool to estimate the flux released at its source, particularly for large‐scale flows because flux can often be very hard to measure directly. This height is known to be mainly controlled by the stratification of the ambient fluid, source buoyancy flux, and the efficiency of turbulent mixing between the plume and the external fluid. The latter effect has been only superficially explored in spite of its fundamental control on the dynamics. Here we show that commonly used one‐dimensional models incorporating a constant entrainment coefficient do not provide satisfying predictions. We propose a new model allowing for variable entrainment which gives excellent predictions of maximum heights reached by laboratory plumes in stratified environments. We then apply our formalism to natural plumes produced by explosive volcanic eruptions under terrestrial, paleo‐Martian, and Venusian conditions and by submarine hydrothermal activity at mid‐ocean ridges. Source mass discharge rates deduced from maximum volcanic column heights for terrestrial eruptions are found to be greater than those estimated with the commonly used constant entrainment parameterization by a factor of 2. In the paleo‐Martian atmosphere, existing models overestimate plume heights by 14–27%. In the current atmosphere of Venus, the maximum height reached by a volcanic plume is also found to be smaller than previously estimated for large eruption rates. The source heat flux released by the TAG field (Atlantic Ocean) deduced from several submarine hydrothermal plumes is found greater by a factor 3 with our model. {BACKGROUND INFORMATION: Turbulent jets and plumes play a fundamental role in a large variety of natural phenomena. Understanding the dynamics of plumes issuing from industrial chimneys or those generated by forest or oil fires is a major goal for environmental science. These large‐scale plumes are able to transport toxic gas and fine particles into the high atmosphere}. High speed turbulent jets in nature are those produced during explosive volcanic eruptions. Volcanic eruptions produce a dense mixture of hot ash and gases that can reach altitudes of several tens of kilometers in the atmosphere or collapse to produce pyroclastic flows [Wilson, 1976]. The prediction of column behavior is also fundamental to evaluating climatic impacts and hazards linked to these eruptions. Theoretical models have been proposed to describe the physics of turbulent plumes. These models revealed that plume dynamics are mainly controlled by the efficiency of entrainment of surrounding fluid by turbulent shear at the edges of the flow.

Lupton, John, et al. “Venting of a separate CO2‐rich gas phase from submarine arc volcanoes: Examples from the Mariana and Tonga‐Kermadec arcs.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 113.B8 (2008). Submersible dives on 22 active submarine volcanoes on the Mariana and Tonga‐Kermadec arcs have discovered systems on six of these volcanoes that, in addition to discharging hot vent fluid, are also venting a separate CO2‐rich phase either in the form of gas bubbles or liquid CO2 droplets. One of the most impressive is the Champagne vent site on NW Eifuku in the northern Mariana Arc, which is discharging cold droplets of liquid CO2 at an estimated rate of 23 mol CO2/s, about 0.1% of the global mid‐ocean ridge (MOR) carbon flux. Three other Mariana Arc submarine volcanoes (NW Rota‐1, Nikko, and Daikoku), and two volcanoes on the Tonga‐Kermadec Arc (Giggenbach and Volcano‐1) also have vent fields discharging CO2‐rich gas bubbles. The vent fluids at these volcanoes have very high CO2 concentrations and elevated C/3He and δ13C (CO2) ratios compared to MOR systems, indicating a contribution to the carbon flux from subducted marine carbonates and organic material. Analysis of the CO2 concentrations shows that most of the fluids are undersaturated with CO2. This deviation from equilibrium would not be expected for pressure release degassing of an ascending fluid saturated with CO2. Mechanisms to produce a separate CO2‐rich gas phase at the seafloor require direct injection of magmatic CO2‐rich gas. The ascending CO2‐rich gas could then partially dissolve into seawater circulating within the volcano edifice without reaching equilibrium. Alternatively, an ascending high‐temperature, CO2‐rich aqueous fluid could boil to produce a CO2‐rich gas phase and a CO2‐depleted liquid. These findings indicate that carbon fluxes from submarine arcs may be higher than previously estimated, and that experiments to estimate carbon fluxes at submarine arc volcanoes are merited. Hydrothermal sites such as these with a separate gas phase are valuable natural laboratories for studying the effects of high CO2 concentrations on marine ecosystems.

Huybers, Peter, and Charles Langmuir. “Feedback between deglaciation, volcanism, and atmospheric CO2.” Earth and Planetary Science Letters 286.3-4 (2009): 479-491. An evaluation of the historical record of volcanic eruptions shows that **subaerial volcanism increased globally by two to six times above background levels between 12 ka and 7 ka, during the last deglaciation**. Increased volcanism occurs in deglaciating regions. Causal mechanisms could include an increase in magma production owing to the mantle decompression caused by ablation of glaciers and ice caps or a more general pacing of when eruptions occur by the glacial variability. A corollary is that ocean ridge volcanic production should decrease with the rising sea level during deglaciation, with the greatest effect at slow spreading ridges. CO2 output from the increased subaerial volcanism appears large enough to influence glacial/interglacial CO2 variations. We estimate subaerial emissions during deglaciation to be between 1000 and 5000 Gt of CO2 above the long term average background flux, assuming that emissions are proportional to the frequency of eruptions. After accounting for equilibration with the ocean, this additional CO2 flux is consistent in timing and magnitude with ice core observations of a 40 ppm increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration during the second half of the last deglaciation. Estimated decreases in CO2 output from ocean ridge volcanoes compensate for only 20% of the increased subaerial flux. If such a large volcanic output of CO2 occurs, then volcanism forges a positive feedback between glacial variability and atmospheric CO2 concentrations: deglaciation increases volcanic eruptions, raises atmospheric CO2, and causes more deglaciation. Such a positive feedback may contribute to the rapid passage from glacial to interglacial periods. Conversely, waning volcanic activity during an interglacial could lead to a reduction in CO2 and the onset of an ice age. Whereas glacial/interglacial variations in CO2 are generally attributed to oceanic mechanisms, it is suggested that the vast carbon reservoirs associated with the solid Earth may also play an important role.

Resing, Joseph A., et al. “Chemistry of hydrothermal plumes above submarine volcanoes of the Mariana Arc.” Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems 10.2 (2009). Fifty submarine volcanoes of the Mariana Arc, covering 1200 km from 13.5°N to 23.2°N, were surveyed for hydrothermal activity. Of these 50 volcanoes, eight showed limited evidence of hydrothermal activity, while another 10 volcanoes displayed intense, chemically rich, hydrothermal plumes that allow detailed chemical characterization and insight into the hydrothermal activity forming the fluids that generate the plumes. The most active volcanoes exhibit a wide range of CO2 to pH relationships, from the venting of acid‐rich fluids, to CO2‐rich fluids, to fluids rich in alkalinity and CO2. These pH‐CO2‐alkalinity relationships are partially responsible for the wide range of Fe:Mn (3 to 32) observed at the different volcanoes. This chemical heterogeneity is further manifest in a wide range of CO2:3He (3 × 109 to 55 × 109), indicating that for all but one, >80% of the CO2 venting from these volcanoes has a slab source. The helium, by contrast, has an upper mantle isotopic signature. The range of chemical conditions suggests that these volcanoes occupy various states of eruptive evolution ranging from ongoing magmatic activity to highly evolved hydrothermal systems.

Lupton, John, et al. “Active hydrothermal discharge on the submarine Aeolian Arc.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 116.B2 (2011). In November 2007 we conducted a water column and seafloor mapping study of the submarine volcanoes of the Aeolian Arc in the southern Tyrrhenian Sea aboard the R/V Urania. On 26 conductivity‐temperature‐depth casts and tows we measured temperature, conductivity, pressure, and light scattering and also collected discrete samples for helium isotopes, methane, and pH. The 3He/4He isotope ratio, an unambiguous indicator of hydrothermal input, showed a clear excess above background at 6 of the 10 submarine volcanoes surveyed. Marsili seamount had the highest anomaly, where the 3He/4He ratio reached a δ3He value of 23% at 610 m depth compared with background values of ∼5%. Smaller but distinct δ3He anomalies occurred over Palinuro, Enarete, Eolo, Sisifo, and Secca del Capo. Although hydrothermal emissions are known to occur offshore of some Aeolian subaerial volcanoes, and hydrothermal deposits have been sampled throughout the arc, our results are the first to confirm active discharge on Marsili, Enarete, Eolo, Sisifo, and Secca del Capo. Samples collected over Lametini, Filicudi North, Alicudi North, and Alcione had δ3He near the regional background values, suggesting either absence of, or very weak, hydrothermal activity on these seamounts. Hydrocasts between the volcanoes revealed a consistent δ3He maximum between 11% and 13% at 2000 m depth throughout the SE Tyrrhenian Sea. The volcanoes of the Aeolian arc and the Marsili back arc, all <1000 m deep, cannot contribute directly to this maximum. This deep 3He excess may be a remnant of tritium decay or may have been produced by an unknown deep hydrothermal source.

Gaillard, Fabrice, Bruno Scaillet, and Nicholas T. Arndt. “Atmospheric oxygenation caused by a change in volcanic degassing pressure.” Nature 478.7368 (2011): 229-232. The Precambrian history of our planet is marked by two major events: a pulse of continental crust formation at the end of the Archaean eon and a weak oxygenation of the atmosphere (the Great Oxidation Event) that followed, at 2.45 billion years ago. This oxygenation has been linked to the emergence of oxygenic cyanobacteria1,2 and to changes in the compositions of volcanic gases3,4, but not to the composition of erupting lavas—geochemical constraints indicate that the oxidation state of basalts and their mantle sources has remained constant since 3.5 billion years ago5,6. Here we propose that a decrease in the average pressure of volcanic degassing changed the oxidation state of sulphur in volcanic gases, initiating the modern biogeochemical sulphur cycle and triggering atmospheric oxygenation. Using thermodynamic calculations simulating gas–melt equilibria in erupting magmas, we suggest that mostly submarine Archaean volcanoes produced gases with SO2/H2S < 1 and low sulphur content. Emergence of the continents due to a global decrease in sea level and growth of the continental crust in the late Archaean then led to widespread subaerial volcanism, which in turn yielded gases much richer in sulphur and dominated by SO2. Dissolution of sulphur in sea water and the onset of sulphate reduction processes could then oxidize the atmosphere.

Cas, Raymond AF, and Guido Giordano. “Submarine volcanism: a review of the constraints, processes and products, and relevance to the Cabo de Gata volcanic succession.” Italian Journal of Geosciences 133.3 (2014): 362-377. Understanding of submarine volcanism still lags behind understanding of subaerial volcanism for the obvious reason that eruptions are usually not, or only partially visible, and deposits are largely inaccessible. In addition, our understanding of the effects of the ambient water mass and the way in which erupting magma and water interact, and the ways in which the physical properties of the water mass control and influence eruption styles, dispersal processes and deposit characteristics, is still at a relatively early stage {translation: we don’t really know submarine volcanism}. In particular, in the past there has been a very simplistic approach to assessing constraints on eruption styles using only ambient hydrostatic pressure, whereas equally important properties such as bulk modulus, compressibility, deformability, attenuation properties, thermal conductivity, heat capacity, have not been adequately considered. This review summarises our understanding on these issues, and briefly summarises varying eruption conditions, styles and deposit characteristics. The origin of pumice deposits preserved in subaqueous settings needs to be interpreted with care. They could represent local explosive events, but could also represent pumice sourced from distant explosive events and vents, even subaerial, and deposited by fallout through water, the passage of pyroclastic flows into water from subaerial vents, long distance rafting of buoyant pumice by currents, reworking and resedimentation, and even non-explosive subaqueous vesiculation and quench fragmentation of subaqueously erupted lavas in shallow or even deep water. The Miocene Cabo de Gata volcanic succession of southeastern Spain was deposited in shallow marine environments based on inter-bedded fossiliferous limestones, which represent periods of volcanic hiatus. The volcanic facies are consistent with a shallow marine setting, involving eruption of low volatile bearing magmas to form andesite and dacite lava flows, domes and associated hyaloclastites, as well as eruptions of volatile rich rhyolitic magmas that produced pumice deposits erupted from subaerial vents or vents at water depths that were too shallow to suppress explosive eruptions through the effects of hydrostatic pressure, but were then reworked and resedimented. {Pumice is porous igneous rock created by explosive volcanic eruptions. Some are sufficiently porous to float on water until they become waterlogged. Source: Geology.com}.

Wen, Hsin-Yi, et al. “Helium and methane sources and fluxes of shallow submarine hydrothermal plumes near the Tokara Islands, Southern Japan.” Scientific reports 6.1 (2016): 1-9. Shallow submarine volcanoes have been newly discovered near the Tokara Islands, which are situated at the volcanic front of the northern Ryukyu Arc in southern Japan. Here, we report for the first time the volatile geochemistry of shallow hydrothermal plumes, which were sampled using a CTD-RMS system after analyzing water column images collected by multi-beam echo sounder surveys. These surveys were performed during the research cruise KS-14-10 of the R/V Shinsei Maru in a region stretching from the Wakamiko Crater to the Tokara Islands. The 3He flux and methane flux in the investigated area are estimated to be (0.99–2.6) × 104 atoms/cm2/sec and 6–60 t/yr, respectively. The methane in the region of the Tokara Islands is a mix between abiotic methane similar to that found in the East Pacific Rise and thermogenic one. Methane at the Wakamiko Crater is of abiotic origin but affected by isotopic fractionation through rapid microbial oxidation. The helium isotopes suggest the presence of subduction-type mantle helium at the Wakamiko Crater, while a larger crustal component is found close to the Tokara Islands. This suggests that the Tokara Islands submarine volcanoes are a key feature of the transition zone between the volcanic front and the spreading back-arc basin.

Stucker, Valerie K., et al. “Hydrothermal Venting at Hinepuia Submarine Volcano, Kermadec Arc: Understanding Magmatic‐Hydrothermal Fluid Chemistry.” Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems 18.10 (2017): 3646-3661. The Hinepuia volcanic center is made up of two distinct edifices aligned northwest to southeast, with an active cone complex in the SE. Hinepuia is one of several active volcanoes in the northern segment of the Kermadec arc. Regional magnetic data show no evidence for large‐scale hydrothermal alteration at Hinepuia, yet plume data confirm present‐day hydrothermal discharge, suggesting that the hydrothermal system may be too young to have altered the host rocks with respect to measurable changes in magnetic signal. Gravity data are consistent with crustal thinning and shallow mantle under the volcanic center. Following the discovery of hydrothermal plumes over Hinepuia, the submersible Shinkai 6500 was used to explore the SE cone and sample hydrothermal fluids. The chemistry of hydrothermal fluids from submarine arc and backarc volcanoes is typically dominated by water‐rock interactions and/or magmatic degassing. Chemical analyses of vent fluids show that Hinepuia does not quite fit either traditional model. Moreover, the Hinepuia samples fall between those typically ascribed to both end‐member fluid types when plotted on a K‐Mg‐SO4 ternary diagram. Due to evidence of strong degassing, abundant native sulfur deposition, and H2S presence, the vent sampled at Hinepuia is ultimately classified as a magmatic‐hydrothermal system with a water‐rock influence. This vent is releasing water vapor and magmatic volatiles with a notable lack of salinity due to subcritical boiling and phase separation. Magmatic‐hydrothermal fluid chemistry appears to be controlled by a combination of gas flux, phase separation processes, and volcano evolution and/or distance from the magma source.

PART-2C: HYDROTHERMAL VENTS AND PLUMES

Weiss, Rudolf Fritz, et al. “Hydrothermal plumes in the Galapagos Rift.” Nature 267.5612 (1977): 600-603. ALTHOUGH there is indirect evidence that a major fraction of the heat loss from newly-created lithosphere occurs by convection of seawater through the porous crust1–3, it has proved difficult to locate vents of deep-sea hydrothermal systems by direct measurement of the discharge fluid. Local increases in bottom water temperature up to 0.1 °C have been measured by towing arrays of thermistors a few metres above the axes of active oceanic spreading centres4,5, but these data are ambiguous because small temperature anomalies may have a hydrographic explanation. We report here the first conclusive measurements of modified seawater discharging as buoyant hydrothermal plumes from fissures in young oceanic crust. We obtained samples of hydrothermal plumes in the Galapagos Rift3, albeit after considerable dilution with surrounding bottom-water, and report the first results of the collection and analysis of these samples.

Isley, Ann E. “Hydrothermal plumes and the delivery of iron to banded iron formation.” The Journal of Geology 103.2 (1995): 169-185. Most of the iron in banded iron formation (BIF) was deposited during the period 2.7-1.8 Ga. Within this period, Fe deposition rates were at least as high as . According to new age models for the largest BIFs, peak deposition occurred between 2.4-2.3 Ga. It is likely that such high deposition rates would not be met by a solely continental source of iron unless significant quantities were remobilized in marine sediment. Estimates of global heat loss for the Late Archean-Early Proterozoic suggest a hydrothermal cycling rate approximately three times greater than at present, so hydrothermal water-rock exchanges were a more important source of Fe to the oceans than today. Hydro-thermal plumes, depleted in  and enriched in Fe, were generated at mid-ocean ridge crests with substantially shallower depths than present. Assuming hydrothermal effluent dilution factors of , plumes transported iron which had a dominantly hydrothermal source into the upper water column and transferred it to margins where BIFs accumulated. However, unless the quantity of iron liberated during hydrothermal cycling was significantly greater per unit volume of water than today, then either  of all hydrothermal iron accumulated in the five very large class BIFs, or they also received Fe from continental sources.

Baker, Edward T., Christopher R. German, and Henry Elderfield. “Hydrothermal plumes over spreading-center axes: global distributions and geological inferences.” Geophysical Monograph-American Geophysical Union 91 (1995): 47-47. Hydrothermal plumes, formed by the turbulent mixing of hot vent fluids and ambient seawater, are potent tools for locating, characterizing, and quantifying seafloor hydrothermal discharge. Hydrographic, optical, and chemical tracers have all been used successfully to identify plumes. Observational techniques have progressed from discrete samples collected on vertical casts to continuous, in situ physical and chemical analyses that produce two- and three-dimensional plume maps. We present here a synthesis of available data from spreading centers throughout the world ocean wherever plumes have been mapped on a vent-field, segment, or multisegment scale. About 3% of the global divergent plate margin has been scrutinized for hydrothermal plumes; close to twice that distance has been sampled at least cursorily. Along medium- to superfast-spreading ridges in the eastern Pacific, where the most detailed work has been done, venting is common and plumes overlie 20-60% of the ridge crest length. Plumes are found also wherever careful surveys have been conducted in western Pacific marginal basins. Slow-spreading ridges in the North Atlantic, sampled over greater length scales but in less detail than in the Pacific, appear to have a comparatively low incidence of venting. Little is known of plume distributions over ridges in other oceans. These studies confirm that hydrothermal venting is present across the entire range of spreading rates and that continuous, underway plume surveys are the most efficient means available for locating seafloor discharge sites. Moreover, plume surveys are the only practical approach to mapping hydrothermal discharge patterns over multisegment spatial scales, and to integrating hydrothermal fluxes on a vent-field or larger scale. The plume surveys conducted to date indicate that the incidence of hydrothermal plumes over the ridge axis increases directly with increasing spreading rate. This observation supports models of crustal evolution that predict a direct relationship between the axial hydrothermal heat flux and spreading rate. This conclusion must be tempered, however, by the recognition that most of the global spreading center system remains unexplored for hydrothermal activity.

Lupton, John E. “Hydrothermal plumes: near and far field.” GMS 91 (1995): 317-346. Hydrothermal plumes are a direct result of the thermal and chemical input from submarine hot spring systems into the oceans; consequently plumes hold many clues to the characteristics of hydrothermal venting and its effect on the oceans. Plumes are an important mechanism of dispersal for the thermal and chemical fluxes introduced at seafloor hot springs. Although the details are poorly understood, it is likely that plumes are also important agents in the dispersal of the larvae of hydrothermal vent fauna and may be responsible for the enhancement of pelagic zooplankton biomass. In at least one case, it has been shown that a basin-scale hydrothermal plume traces a major deep ocean circulation cell driven by the buoyancy flux from hydrothermal venting. Finally, because they integrate the hydrothermal input, plumes are valuable tools for a variety of studies of mid-ocean ridges, such as locating active sites of hydrothermal venting, estimating thermal and chemical fluxes from hydrothermal systems, and assessing the magmatic state of the underlying ridge.

Lilley, Marvin D., Richard A. Feely, and John H. Trefry. “Chemical and biochemical transformations in hydrothermal plumes.” GMS 91 (1995): 369-391. Hydrothermal plumes integrate the heat and mass flux originating at seafloor hydrothermal vents thereby providing both a means of detecting hydrothermal activity and estimating hydrothermal fluxes. Many chemical species are introduced into the deep sea via hydrothermal plumes (Figure 1) in concentrations many orders of magnitude higher than that existing in background seawater (e.g. H2, CH4 3He, Mn, Fe) while others are scavenged from seawater by hydrothermal particles (e.g. PO4-3, V, As, rare earth elements, Th). Dilution by entrainment of background seawater in the buoyant portion of the plume is very rapid (see chapters by Lupton and McDuff, this volume) such that the hydrothermal component in the near-field portion of the neutrally buoyant plume represents only about 0.01% of the mixture. Nevertheless, chemical tracers such as 3He, CH4, and Mn are widely utilized in addition to temperature, salinity, and light transmission anomalies to detect hydrothermal venting and to draw inferences about the nature of the underlying geochemistry of the hydrothermal system. Many other chemical tracers can be utilized during plume studies to provide additional information about the nature of the venting. These include particles, H2, Al, and radioisotopes, among others.

German, C. R., Gary P. Klinkhammer, and M. D. Rudnicki. “The Rainbow hydrothermal plume, 36° 15′ N, MAR.” Geophysical research letters 23.21 (1996): 2979-2982. The Rainbow hydrothermal plume was discovered during a recent geophysical survey along 200 km of the Mid‐Atlantic Ridge (MAR), SW of the Azores Triple Junction, in which at least seven new sites of hydrothermal activity were identified. Here, we present the first hydrographic study of the Rainbow plume, 36°15′N, the strongest of the features located during that survey. The plume is detectable from real‐time in situ nephelometer anomalies and extends 10–15km, W‐E, in a non‐transform discontinuity (NTD) between two adjacent ridge‐segments. Maximum anomalies in the Rainbow plume indicate particle enrichments at least as large as those seen directly above the Trans Atlantic Geotraverse (TAG) vent‐field (26°N, MAR). Analysis of hydrographic data indicates a vent source at Rainbow with a thermal output of up to 98 MW, representing 140% of the thermal output previously attributed to TAG. Both lines of evidence indicate the Rainbow plume to be the strongest such feature yet found on the MAR.

Bennett, Sarah A., et al. “The distribution and stabilisation of dissolved Fe in deep-sea hydrothermal plumes.” Earth and Planetary Science Letters 270.3-4 (2008): 157-167. We have conducted a study of hydrothermal plumes overlying the Mid-Atlantic Ridge near 5° S to investigate whether there is a significant export flux of dissolved Fe from hydrothermal venting to the oceans. Our study combined measurements of plume-height Fe concentrations from a series of 6 CTD stations together with studies of dissolved Fe speciation in a subset of those samples. At 2.5 km down plume from the nearest known vent site dissolved Fe concentrations were ∼ 20 nM. This is much higher than would be predicted from a combination of plume dilution and dissolved Fe(II) oxidation rates, but consistent with stabilisation due to the presence of organic Fe complexes and Fe colloids. Using Competitive Ligand Exchange–Cathodic Stripping Voltammetry (CLE–CSV), stabilised dissolved Fe complexes were detected within the dissolved Fe fraction on the edges of one non-buoyant hydrothermal plume with observed ligand concentrations high enough to account for stabilisation of ∼ 4% of the total Fe emitted from the 5° S vent sites. If these results were representative of all hydrothermal systems, submarine venting could provide 12–22% of the global deep-ocean dissolved Fe budget.

MBARI IMAGE: HUNDREDS OF HYDROTHERMAL CHIMNEYS DISCOVERED ON SEA FLOOR: MBARI.ORG

PART-2D: HYDROTHERMAL PLUME METHANE

Welhan, JA T., and H. Craig. “Methane and hydrogen in East Pacific Rise hydrothermal fluids.” Geophysical Research Letters 6.11 (1979): 829-831. Recently discovered hydrothermal vents at 21°N on the East Pacific Rise are discharging turbid waters at up to 400°C; mixtures of the plumes with ambient seawater contain significant amounts of dissolved H2 and CH4as well as He. The first grab samples of these waters were diluted 50‐100 foldbut they contained as much as 20 × 10−5 cc(STP) of H2 and 2 × 10−5 cc(STP) of CH4 per gram of water. H2/CH4 ratios in the vents increase with temperature, a result that is tentatively attributed to chemical equilibrium and/or the redox state of the individual waters. The phase diagram for the NaCl‐H2O “surrogate‐seawater” system shows that liquid‐vapor separation may take place prior to discharge and mixing of a vapor phase with entrained cooler sea‐water would profoundly alter original concentrations of volatiles as well as dissolved salts. H2 and CH4 ratios to basalt‐derived helium are respectively about 550 and 70 in these waters. The total fluxes from the world‐ocean ridge system estimated from the He‐3 flux are of the order of 1.3 × 109 m³/y for H2 and 1.6 × 108 m³/y for CH4. The CH4 flux so calculated is sufficient to replace the deep‐sea methane in ∼ 30 years implying a very rapid bacterial consumption rate below the thermocline.

De Angelis, M. A., M. D. Lilley, and J. A. Baross. “Methane oxidation in deep-sea hydrothermal plumes of the Endeavour Segment of the Juan de Fuca Ridge.” Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers 40.6 (1993): 1169-1186. Methane oxidation rates were measured in samples from a deep-sea lateral hydrothermal plume generated from a vent field on the Endeavour Segment of the Juan de Fuca Ridge. Specific CH4 oxidation rates of up to 0.15 day−1, corresponding to turnover times on the order of 1 week, are the highest such rates so far reported for the water column of any marine environment. Specific methane oxidation rates within the plume were found to be highest at distances of 2–5 k downplume from the vent field of origin. Ambient CH4 oxidation rates were highest in the lateral plume immediately above the vent field where CH4 concentrations were maximal. Methane oxidation rates appeared to be sufficient to account for the majority of CH4 loss in the plume which could not be attributed to dilution. Oxidation of vent-derived CH4 within the lateral plume can contribute an amount of organic carbon equivalent to up to 150% of that reaching the depth of the plume from surface primary production, suggesting that microbial CH4 oxidation can have a significant impact on local deep-sea productivity in the immediate vicinity of oceanic spreading centers.

Charlou, Jean‐Luc, and Jean‐Pierre Donval. “Hydrothermal methane venting between 12° N and 26° N along the Mid‐Atlantic Ridge.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 98.B6 (1993): 9625-9642. Hydrographic surveys along the Mid‐Atlantic Ridge (MAR) between 12°N and 26°N, carried out from 1984 to 1990, show a variable pattern of CH4‐rich water column plumes. The vertical distribution of CH4 at stations located every 20–40 km is presented along this 1200‐km‐long section of the MAR. CH4 venting is clearly demonstrated. CH4‐enriched fluids rise from vents as plumes; spreading is confined to the axial valley due to the topography of the MAR. CH4 contents from 45 nmol to 675 nmol/kg are measured in the buoyant plumes above the two active hydrothermal sites (MARK 23°N; TAG 26°N) known at present, whereas CH4 anomalies up to 3.6 nmol/kg are typically observed in plumes emitted either on the inner floor, on the walls, and/or at the top of the rift mountains along the studied ridge section. CH4 concentrations (45 μmol to 144 μmol/kg) in MARK and TAG vent fluids are of the same order of magnitude as those found in the East Pacific Rise fluids. Even though CH4 is known to be unstable with respect to oxidation by dissolved oxygen, and in spite of its microbial oxidation in plumes, these results confirm CH4 to be a good indicator to track hydrothermal plumes and to map the variation of hydrothermal activity along mid oceanic ridges. Moreover, between 12° and 26°N along the MAR, CH4 results show that while hydrothermal activity is present everywhere along the ridge, it is predominant near fracture zones (FZ) (Kane FZ, 15°20′N FZ). Comparison of CH4 tracer with total dissolvable manganese (TDM) tracer in plumes allows us to differentiate subseafloor hydrothermal processes. The high TDM/CH4 found above TAG and MARK areas is indicative of basalt‐seawater interaction, while at 15°N the low TDM/CH4 provides evidence of fluid circulation in ultrabasic rocks. CH4 data confirm the association between mantle degassing, hydrothermal activity, and serpentinization along this 12°–26°N section of the Mid‐Atlantic Ridge.

Mottl, Michael J., et al. “Manganese and methane in hydrothermal plumes along the East Pacific Rise, 8 40′ to 11 50′ N.” Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 59.20 (1995): 4147-4165. In November, 1991, we surveyed the water column for hydrothermal plumes along 350 km of the East Pacific Rise axis from 8°40′ to 11°50′N, using a combination of physical and chemical measurements. Our survey included the two major ridge segments north and south of the Clipperton Transform Fault at about 10°10′N, both limbs of the overlapping spreading centers (OSC’s) at 9°03′N and 11°45′N, and a 30-km section of the next ridge segment to the south. We found vigorous plumes along most of this ridge axis, in keeping with its magmatically robust cross-section, axial summit caldera, and shallow, magma-related seismic reflector. These plumes were detectable by both physical (temperature and light attenuation) and chemical (dissolved Mn and CH4) measurements, although the chemical measurements were more sensitive. The least active sections were the southern third of the northern segment from 10°20 to 52′N and the OSCs, especially the OSC at 11°45′N. Plumes there had weak Mn and CH4 signals and were barely detectable by physical methods. These axial sections were the only ones surveyed that lie deeper than 2600 m and appear to be magma starved. The most active sections on the northern segment gave stronger signals for Mn and temperature than for CH4 and light attenuation, whereas the opposite was true on the southern segment, which was the site of a volcanic eruption at 9°45–52′N only seven months prior to our cruise. On the northern segment the four physical and chemical plume tracers correlated positively and linearly with one another, suggesting that the segment was fed by relatively uniform end-member fluids with a mean CH4Mn molar ratio of 0.075. The southernmost section surveyed, from 8°42′ to 9°08′N, closely resembled the northern segment. The rest of the southern segment fell into three sections with different CH4Mn ratios: 9°39 to 53′N with CH4Mn as high as 10, 9°08 to 39′N with CH4Mn of 0.51, and 9°53′ to 10°07′N with CH4Mn of 0.85. The section with the highest CH4Mn was the site of the volcanic eruption, which produced high-temperature, low-salinity, gas-rich vent fluids carrying abundant bacterial particles. The high CH4 concentrations are clearly associated with the volcanic eruption, but the origin of the CH4 is unclear.

Tsunogai, Urumu, et al. “Carbon isotopic distribution of methane in deep-sea hydrothermal plume, Myojin Knoll Caldera, Izu-Bonin arc: implications for microbial methane oxidation in the oceans and applications to heat flux estimation.” Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 64.14 (2000): 2439-2452. The concentration and stable carbon isotopic composition (δ13C) of methane have been measured for both seafloor hydrothermal venting fluids and effluent plume waters supplied from the vents at the Myojin Knoll Caldera, Izu-Bonin arc, in the western North Pacific. The hydrothermal end-member concentrations and δ13C of methane show near-homogeneity among vents: 41.2 (μmol/kg) and −16.3 ± 0.8 (‰PDB), respectively, while those in the effluent plume are stratified in the caldera and vertically exhibit a large variation (2.1–11 (nmol/kg) and −29.0 to −11.3 (‰PDB), respectively). Comparison of concentration and δ13C data between vent fluids and plume waters suggest that the methane is not conserved but microbially oxidized along with the plume. Gradual decrease of diffusive methane flux in proportion to distance from the vent fields supports the occurrence of significant microbial oxidation within the plume. Assuming steady state emission of methane from the vents, (1) kinetic isotope effect due to the microbial oxidation (k12/k13); (2) methane flux from the vents (Fvents); (3) heat flux from the vents (Q); and (4) average turnover time of hydrothermal methane (Tall) are estimated to be k12/k13 = 1.005 ± 0.001, Fvents = 90–340 (mol/d), Q = 30–110 (MW), and Tall = 60–240 (d), respectively. The estimated turnover times, however, are not uniform within the water column. Around the vents, a turnover time of less than 50 d for methane is one of the shortest values in the pelagic ocean, while those at the distant points correspond to values more typical for deep ocean water.

Cowen, James P., Xiyuan Wen, and Brian N. Popp. “Methane in aging hydrothermal plumes.” Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 66.20 (2002): 3563-3571. Methane concentration and the stable carbon isotopic composition (δ 13C–CH4) were measured in aging hydrothermal plume waters originating at the Endeavour Segment, Juan de Fuca Ridge. CH4 concentrations decreased systematically from 600 nM at on-axis stations to <11 nM at a distal station 15 km off axis; background CH4 concentrations are <2 nM. CH4 behaves nonconservatively in plume waters and does not correlate with conservative parameters such as temperature anomaly (Δθ), but is highly correlated with NH4+ and total dissolvable Mn. δ 13C–CH4 values for plume depth samples varies inversely and significantly (R2 = 0.89) with methane concentrations normalized to Δθ. Some δ 13C–CH4 values (+1.8 and +10.9 ‰) measured at the 15 km off-axis station are among the heaviest yet reported from a natural marine environment. Less than 5% of original hydrothermal methane remains in the plume at this station. The data are consistent with extensive microbial methane oxidation. A narrow range of fractionation factors (rc ≈1.0072 to 1.0077) was calculated for the Endeavour samples. These fractionation factors are less than those reported by Coleman et al. (1981), but fall near the trend line of their rc versus temperature data when extrapolated to plume water temperature (∼2 °C).

Kawagucci, Shinsuke, et al. “Methane, manganese, and helium‐3 in newly discovered hydrothermal plumes over the Central Indian Ridge, 18°–20° S.” Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems 9.10 (2008). We have investigated newly discovered submarine hydrothermal plumes over the Central Indian Ridge, 18°–20°S. Onshore chemical analyses of methane, its carbon isotope, manganese, and helium‐3 in seawater samples obtained from the plumes revealed their detailed geochemical characteristics. One of the newly discovered hydrothermal plumes located over the western wall of the axial valley at Segment 15B (19°33′S), called the Roger Plateau, showed constant CH4/Mn and CH4/3He ratios throughout the plume. The CH4/3He ratio (4 × 106) and δ13C (−17.5‰) are consistent with those of basalt‐hosted sediment‐free hydrothermal systems, although the CH4/Mn ratio (∼1) is moderately higher. These features are thought to indicate a metal‐depleted fluid chemistry. The other hydrothermal field is located within the axial valley at the northern part of the smooth lava plain at Segment 16 (18°20′S), called the Dodo Great Lava Plain, where several plumes were detected. The CH4/Mn and CH4/3He ratios showed large variation through the plumes while δ13C values were almost constant. Geochemical characteristics of venting fluid estimated from those of the plumes were apparently high CH4/Mn (>6) and CH4/3He (>60 × 106) ratios and low δ13C values (<−27.5‰), suggesting possible influences of several methane input processes to the fluid chemistry.

Wen, Hsin-Yi, et al. “Helium and methane sources and fluxes of shallow submarine hydrothermal plumes near the Tokara Islands, Southern Japan.” Scientific reports 6.1 (2016): 1-9. Shallow submarine volcanoes have been newly discovered near the Tokara Islands, which are situated at the volcanic front of the northern Ryukyu Arc in southern Japan. Here, we report for the first time the volatile geochemistry of shallow hydrothermal plumes, which were sampled using a CTD-RMS system after analyzing water column images collected by multi-beam echo sounder surveys. These surveys were performed during the research cruise KS-14-10 of the R/V Shinsei Maru in a region stretching from the Wakamiko Crater to the Tokara Islands. The 3He flux and methane flux in the investigated area are estimated to be (0.99–2.6) × 104 atoms/cm2/sec and 6–60 t/yr, respectively. The methane in the region of the Tokara Islands is a mix between abiotic methane similar to that found in the East Pacific Rise and thermogenic one. Methane at the Wakamiko Crater is of abiotic origin but affected by isotopic fractionation through rapid microbial oxidation. The helium isotopes suggest the presence of subduction-type mantle helium at the Wakamiko Crater, while a larger crustal component is found close to the Tokara Islands. This suggests that the Tokara Islands submarine volcanoes are a key feature of the transition zone between the volcanic front and the spreading back-arc basin.

Levin, Lisa A., et al. “Hydrothermal vents and methane seeps: rethinking the sphere of influence.” Frontiers in Marine Science 3 (2016): 72. Although initially viewed as oases within a barren deep ocean, hydrothermal vents and methane seep chemosynthetic communities are now recognized to interact with surrounding ecosystems on the sea floor and in the water column, and to affect global geochemical cycles. The importance of understanding these interactions is growing as the potential rises for disturbance of the systems from oil and gas extraction, seabed mining and bottom trawling. Here we synthesize current knowledge of the nature, extent and time and space scales of vent and seep interactions with background systems. We document an expanded footprint beyond the site of local venting or seepage with respect to elemental cycling and energy flux, habitat use, trophic interactions, and connectivity. Heat and energy are released, global biogeochemical and elemental cycles are modified, and particulates are transported widely in plumes. Hard and biotic substrates produced at vents and seeps are used by “benthic background” fauna for attachment substrata, shelter, and access to food via grazing or through position in the current, while particulates and fluid fluxes modify planktonic microbial communities. Chemosynthetic production provides nutrition to a host of benthic and planktonic heterotrophic background species through multiple horizontal and vertical transfer pathways assisted by flow, gamete release, animal movements, and succession, but these pathways remain poorly known. Shared species, genera and families indicate that ecological and evolutionary connectivity exists among vents, seeps, organic falls and background communities in the deep sea; the genetic linkages with inactive vents and seeps and background assemblages however, are practically unstudied. The waning of venting or seepage activity generates major transitions in space and time that create links to surrounding ecosystems, often with identifiable ecotones or successional stages. The nature of all these interactions is dependent on water depth, as well as regional oceanography and biodiversity. Many ecosystem services are associated with the interactions and transitions between chemosynthetic and background ecosystems, for example carbon cycling and sequestration, fisheries production, and a host of non-market and cultural services. The quantification of the sphere of influence of vents and seeps could be beneficial to better management of deep-sea environments in the face of growing industrialization.

Our oceans may have six times as many hydrothermal vents as thought
By Ben PankoJun. 21, 2016 , 5:15 PM: LINK: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/06/our-oceans-may-have-six-times-many-hydrothermal-vents-thought Hydrothermal vents, cracks in Earth from which hot water spews, may be far more numerous than scientists realized: three to six times more numerous, Science News reports. To find them, oceanographers hunted for chemicals released by the vents in areas called spreading ridges, where the ocean floor is literally pulling apart. The team found 184 hydrothermal vents for 1470 kilometers of ocean floor, or one vent every 2 to 20 kilometers, according to research published online in Earth and Planetary Science Letters. That’s far greater than the one vent for every 12 to 220 kilometers that used to be the norm, they reported. Because these vents are vital habitats for deep-sea flora and fauna, this discovery likely increases the number of areas to search for underwater life.

Hydrothermal plumes - Marine Geoscience

ONLINE ARTICLE ON GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF HYDROTHERMAL VENTS BY HARRY BAKER WITH DATA FROM THE MONTEREY BAY AQUARIUM RESEARCH INSTITUTE: MBARI.ORG . LINK TO HARRY BAKER: https://marinemadness.blog/2020/06/12/new-map-gives-us-our-best-look-yet-at-hydrothermal-vents/


THE HARRY BAKER ARTICLE: {Note: The Endeavour Segment is a vent field in the Northeast Pacific.} A new paper by researchers from MBARI.ORG has revealed a large extent of the famous Endeavour Segment of hydrothermal vents. The high resolution map of 572 chimneys has changed what we know about this region and hydrothermal vents in general, as well as opening up new possibilities for researchers. Hydrothermal vents are one of the most important and least understood habitats in the deep sea. This is primarily because they can be extremely hard to locate thousands of metres beneath the surface. For years one of the best places to study hydrothermal vents has been the Endeavour Segment, a field of deep sea chimneys located around 350 kilometres Northwest of Washington State. However new research carried out by a group of researchers from MBARI (Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute) has revealed that there are far more vents there than previously thought, with a total of 572 chimneys mapped by an AUV. Not only has this changed what we know about hydrothermal vents in this area, but also in general, as well as providing researchers with a new way of finding and studying them. What are hydrothermal vents? Hydrothermal vents occur at places in the deep ocean where magma below the seafloor superheats the water that seeps down through the bedrock. This superheated water is then pushed back through the seafloor, absorbing metals and minerals from its surroundings as it goes. When the boiling hot water penetrates the seafloor and mixes with the freezing waters of the deep oceans, it causes the metals and minerals in the water to condense and forms underwater structures or chimneys that continue to pump out the superheated water into the ocean. Hydrothermal vents are biodiversity hotspots in the deep ocean thanks to creatures like these tubeworms that convert the sulphur they produce into energy. These chimneys habitats for deep sea ecosystems because they are surrounded by specially adapted creatures with high thermal tolerance, some of which have the ability to convert the sulphur they produce into energy. This means that vents are very important to the deep sea food web where life does not derive from sunlight. Hydrothermal vents are also a major candidate for the birthplace of life on Earth billions of years ago. Today they are also financially valuable due to the accumulation of valuable metals that make up the chimneys and are targeted by destructive deep sea mining companies. The Endeavour Segment has beed a focal point for vent research because of its high volcanic activity. The seafloor has very literally been ripped apart by this activity over the last few thousand years and provided places for multiple vents and chimneys to grow. It has been constantly surveyed by submersibles and underwater robots since 1982 and as a result researchers believed there were between 45 and 60 vents, one of which ‘Godzilla’ grew to 45m tall before toppling in 1995, all located in a long narrow valley about 14km long and 1.5km wide. However due to poor visibility, total darkness and limited technology, it was hard to determine the exact number for certain. To finally determine how many vents were in the Endeavour Segment, MBARI mapped the field with sonar using their AUV (Autonimus Underwater Vehicle) at just 50m above the seafloor. The result was a new map with a resolution of 1.25 metres that showed not just 45-60 vents, but an incredible 572. The map and other results from the survey were recently published by the MBARI team in a new paper in the journal AGU. These results came as a surprise to many researchers because they had grossly underestimated the number of hydrothermal vents in the Endeavour Segment. However a large portion of these vents are actually inactive. Compared to other areas mapped by MBARI, such as the Alcon Rise in the Gulf of California, the endeavour segment has a much higher percentage of chimneys that no longer funnel superheated water. This is something that eventually happens to all hydrothermal vents over time as there is a build-up of minerals and metals that clog up the water flow. However the large proportion of them in this one location has sparked a new theory about hydrothermal vents. In their new paper the MBARI team suggest that the reason the Endeavour segment has so many sleeping chimneys is because despite its history of high volcanic activity, it is actually starting to become much less active. They propose that the reason areas like the Alcon Rise have fewer vents but more active ones, is that they are in a different period of volcanic activity. Because of this they have also proposed a new life-cycle of hydrothermal vent fields wirh three main stages…

  1. A magmatic phase, lasting up to tens of thousands of years, when large amounts of magma erupt and cover the seafloor with lava.
  2. A tectonic phase, lasting perhaps 5,000 years, when the magma supply slows, and the seafloor cools and contracts.
  3. A hydrothermal phase, lasting just a few thousand years, when resurgent magma below the surface heats fluids that percolate upwards through seafloor cracks, forming large numbers of vents.

By following MBARI’s example we can now study hydrothermal vent fields in much greater detail and maybe even find new sites for their research. Hopefully this means that over the next few decades we will be able to uncover more of their secrets and gain a better understanding of deep-sea habitats and ecosystems, which will enable us to better protect them.

3D map

youngerDryas

A student asks: In the theory of anthropogenic global warming and climate change is there a possibility that we will recover from it and will that recovery be sustained?

My answer: Yes. Climate science is very clear about that. The science says that our use of fossil fuels causes anthropogenic (human caused) warming and that if we stop burning fossil fuels it will stop the anthropogenic warming and we will be on a “sustained recovery” from this human caused temperature cycle of the Holocene.

The recovery will be “sustained” until the next natural Holocene temperature cycle kicks in. We had about 8 or 9 of the natural temperature cycles before this human caused temperature cycle was inserted into the natural sequence by humans burning fossil fuels in the industrial economy. Therefore, when we stop the human caused temperature cycle by changing from fossil fuels to renewables, we will go back to those natural temperature cycles over which we will have no control.

Our only hope is that nature will be kind. The sequence of natural temperature cycles of the Holocene is described in a related post: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/06/11/chaoticholocene/

THE TRUTH IS THAT NATURAL TEMPERATURE CYCLES OVER WHICH HUMANS HAVE NO CONTROL ARE THE GREATEST CHALLENGE HUMANITY HAS EVER FACED.

Al Gore Quote: “The truth is that climate change is presenting the greatest  challenge humanity has ever faced.” (7 wallpapers) - Quotefancy

₵ Ɇ ₦ ł ₦ on Twitter: "We are a plague on Earth.... Either we limit our population  growth, or the natural world will do it for us, and the natural world

THE ESSENCE OF DAVIDISM IS THAT THERE ARE TWO KINDS OF LIFE ON EARTH. THEY ARE (1) THE UNNATURAL WORLD OF HUMANS THAT IS NOT A PART OF NATURE BUT SOMETHING EXTERNAL, FOREIGN, HARMFUL, AND A THREAT TO NATURE, AND (2) THE NATURAL WORLD CONSISTING OF INNOCENT AND LOVABLE CREATURES THAT LIVE IN AN OTHERWISE PERFECT WORLD BUT WITH THE EVER PRESENT THREAT OF THE HUMANS OF THE UNNATURAL WORLD.

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF TWO YOUTUBE VIDEOS ON POPULATION DAVIDISM THAT REACHES BACK TO MALTHUS AND PAUL EHRLICH TO PREACH A HORRIFIC THREAT TO THE “NATURAL WORLD” POSED BY POPULATION GROWTH IN THE UNNATURAL WORLD WITH THE ENDLESSLY REPEATED DOGMA THAT GROWTH WITHOUT LIMITS IS NOT POSSIBLE “ON A FINITE PLANET“.

ABSTRACT: Population Davidism expressed in these videos is a mirror image of this sordid history of envronmentalism gone awry. Environmentalism, which started out as a movement to enhance the quality of life of humans by managing their environs (surroundings), has now been turned 180 degrees by Davidism. Here environmentalism is seen not as care of humans by humans but but the care by humans of the rest of nature other than humans. Davidism holds the rest of nature other than humans as the sacred NATURAL WORLD. In Davidism, as in Bambi-ism, the environmental ideal is a humanless world where Bambi and friends can frolic. LINK TO RELATED POST ON BAMBI: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/15/the-bambi-principle/ This fallacious anti-human view of environmentalism leads to fallacious anti-human conclusions and alarming observations that there are too many humans on earth. DAVIDISM is a flawed view of nature. Humans are part of nature and not an external evil force from which nature needs to be saved by DAVIDISM.

VIDEO#1

THE VIDEO

THE TRANSCRIPT

I have no doubt that the fundamental source of all our problems, particularly our environmental problems, is population growth. I can’t think of a single problem that wouldn’t be easier to solve if there were less people. And the projections now are … uh… awesome. In the time that I have been making these programs the population of the world has tripled – just in my lifetime! And we all know about geometric growth {the bigger it gets the faster it grows}. And that uh if you were able uh which obviously you can’t uh if we were able to stem it we might be able to have a better chance to grapple with the problem but we can’t. Uh the best we can do is to slow down the rate of increase. We certainly can’t stop it. The one source of comfort, it’s only a tiny thread, is that the knowledge that wherever you empower women, wherever they have the vote, wherever they’ve had the education wherever they have the free will and are in charge of their own lives not dictated to by men uh the birthrate falls. Which is a very good reason for getting rid of slums for increasing education and for for uh dealing with all the other social problems that many people uh many places have. Uh and if there is a shaft of light there but it’s only a very thin shaft.

VIDEO#2

THE VIDEO

THE TRANSCRIPT

Fifty years ago when the WWF was founded there were about 3 billion people on earth. Now there are almost 7 billion. Over twice as many. And every one of them needing space. Space for their homes, space to grow their food, or to get others to grow it for them, space to build schools, roads, and airfields. Where will that {all that space} come from? A little may be taken from land occupied by other people. But most of it could only come from the land which for millions of years animals and plants had for themselves. THE NATURAL WORLD. The impact of these extra millions of people will spread far beyond the space that they phusically claim. The spread of industrialization has changed the chemical consistency of the atmosphere. The oceans that cover most of the surface of the planet have been polluted and increasingly acidified. And the earth is warming. {The population bomb created the climate bomb}. We now realize that the disasters that have grown increasingly to afflict the natural world have one element that connects them all. The unprecedented increase in the number of human beings on the planet. There have been prophets that have warned us of this impending disaster. One of the first was Thomas Malthus. His most important book, Essay on the Principle of Population, was published almost 200 years ago in 1798. In it he argued that the human population would increase inexorably until it was halted by what he called misery and vice. Today, for some reason, that prophecy appears to be largely ignored or generally disregarded. It is true that he did not foresee the so called Green Revolution which increased the amount of food that we could produce in any given area of arable land. And there may be other advances in our food producing skills that we ourselves can’t foresee. But such advances only delay the inevitable because the fundamental truth that Malthus established still remains the truth today and that is that there cannot be more prople on this earth than can be fed. Many people would like to deny that this is so. They would like to believe in that oxymoron called “Sustainable Growth“. Kenneth Bowling, President Kennedy’s Environmental Adviser 45 years ago said something about this. “Anyone who believes in indefinite growth in anything physical ON A PHYSICALLY FINITE PLANET, he said is either mad or an economist. The population of the world is now is growing at nearly 80 million a year, 1.5 million per week, equivalent to 220,000 per day, 9132 per hour, 152 per minute or 2.5 per second. In this country (UK) it is projected to grow by 10 million in 22 years. All these people in this country and worldwide rich or poor need and deserve food, energy, water, and space. Will they be able to get it? I don’t know. I hope so. You may have seen the government’s foresight report on the future of food and ???. It shows how hard it is to feed the 7 billion of us who are alive today. There are many obstacles that are already making this hard to achieve. Soil erosion, suddelization??? , the depletion of aquifers, overgrazing, the spread of plant diseases as a result of globalization, the absurd use of food crops to turn into biofuels to feed motor cars instead of people. So we’ve underlined how desperately difficult it is going to be to feed a population that is projected to stabilize in the range of 8 to 10 billion peope by the year 2050. I suspect that you could read the scores of reports by bodies concerened with global problems and see that population is clearly the driver that underlies them all. And yet find no reference to this obvious fact in any of them. CLIMATE CHANGE tops the environmental agenda at present. We all know that every additional person needs to use some carbon energy if only for ????? and so therefore creates more carbon dioxide. But of course a rich person will produce vastly more than a poor man. Similarly we can see that every extra person is and will be an extra victim of climate change and the poor will suffer more than the rich. Why it is a strange silence? (??). I mean nobody disagrees that population growth is a problem. No one except flat earthers who deny that the planet is finite. We can all see it in that beautiful picture of our earth taken by the Apollo mission. It remains an obvious and brutal fact that on a finite planet human populations will quite definitely ?stop a topmite? And that can only happen in one of two ways. It can happen sooner by fewer human births by contraception, the humane way, a powerful option that allows all of us to deal with the problem if we collectively choose to do so. The alternative is an increased death rate the way in which all other creatures will suffer through famine or disease or predation. That, translated into human terms, means famine or disease. or war over oil or water or food or food or ?grazing rights? or just living space. There is alas no third alternative of indefinite growth. The sooner we stabilize our numbers the sooner we will running up the down escalator. Stop population increase, stop the escalator, and we have some chance to reach the top and that’s to say a decent life for all. To do that requires several things. First and foremost it needs a much wider understanding of the problem and that will not happen while the absurd taboo on discussing it remains such a powerful grip on the minds of so many otherwise worthy ???????. Then it needs a change in our culture so that while everyone retains the right to have as many children as they would like, they understand that having large families means compounding the problems for their children and everybody else’s children that they will face in the future. It needs action by governments. In my view all countries should develop a population policy. Some 70 countries already have them in one form or another and ?different? priorities. So now our destiny is in our hands. There is one glimmer of hope. Wherever women have the vote, wherever they are literate, and have the medical facilities to control the number of children. the birth rate falls. But what can each of us do? You or I. Well, there is just one thing I would ask. Break the taboo in public and in private as best you can and as you ?judge right? Until it’s broken here, until it’s broken there is no hope of the action we need. Wherever and whenever we speak of the environment add a few words to ensure that the population environment is not ignored. Every one of these global problems, social as well as environmental becomes more difficult and ultimately impossible to solve with ever more people. TEXT ON SCREEN: {Population is clearly one of the drivers that underlies all global problems. The sooner we stabilize our numbers the sooner we stop running up the down escalator. Our destiny is in our hands. Communication is the catalyst for change. http://www.theknowledgexchange.org}

David Attenborough Quote: “The human population can no longer be allowed to  grow in the same old uncontrollable way. If we do not take charge of ou...”  (10 wallpapers) - Quotefancy
Perhaps it's time... #childfree | David attenborough, David attenborough  quotes, Humor

CRITICAL COMMENTARY

PART-1: PAUL EHRLICH’S POPULATION BOMB BOMBED

Updated world population growth rate annual 1950 2100
source: https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth

In the Population growth data from the World Bank: LINK: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.GROW we find that the annual rate of global population growth rose from 1.35% in 1960 to around 2.1% in the late 1960s and stayed at around 2.1% until 1970. This was the period when Paul Ehrlich’s 1968 book The Population Bomb was published. Its many apocalyptic forecasts by both the author of the book and by its many devotees have all been proven comically false. Some of these forecasts are listed below. Exactly the same arguments made in these DAVIDISM videos were made a few years ago by Paul Ehrlich in his now defunct population bomb hypothesis as seen in this video:

Paul Ehrlich, Stanford University: 1970a: Population will inevitably and completely outstrip whatever small increases in food supplies we make. The death rate will increase until at least 100-200 million people per year will be starving to death during the next ten years. Most of the people who are going to die in the greatest cataclysm in the history of man have already been born and by 1975 food shortages will have escalated the present level of world hunger and starvation into famines of unbelievable proportions. Between 1980 and 1989, some 4 billion people, including 65 million Americans, will perish in the “Great Die-Off.”

1968a:  The battle to feed humanity has been lost. There will be a major food shortage in the US in the 1970s and hundreds of millions are going to starve to death and by the 1980s most of the world’s important resources will be depleted. 65 million Americans will die of starvation between 1980-1989 and that by 1999, the US population will decline to 22.6 million. The problems in the US will be relatively minor compared to those in the rest of the world.

1968b: By the year 2000 the United Kingdom will be simply a small group of impoverished islands, inhabited by some 70 million hungry people … If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000.

1970b: In ten years all important animal life in the sea will be extinct. Large areas of coastline will have to be evacuated because of the stench of dead fish.

1970c: Population will inevitably and completely outstrip whatever small increases in food supplies we make. The death rate will increase until at least 100-200 million people per year will be starving to death during the next ten years. Most of the people who are going to die in the greatest cataclysm in the history of man have already been born and by 1975 food shortages will have escalated the present level of world hunger and starvation into famines of unbelievable proportions. Between 1980 and 1989, some 4 billion people, including 65 million Americans, will perish in the “Great Die-Off.”

1970d: Air pollution will take hundreds of thousands of lives in the next few years alone and 200,000 Americans will die in 1973 due to “smog disasters” in New York and Los Angeles. DDT and other chlorinated hydrocarbons have substantially reduced the life expectancy of people born since 1945 and these people have a life expectancy of only 49 years. Life expectancy will reach 42 years by 1980, when it might level out.

1975:  Since more than nine-tenths of the original tropical rain forests will be removed in most areas within the next 30 years or so, it is expected that half of the organisms in these areas will vanish with it.

2015:  Australia is working to become a third-world country through its economic dependence on mining natural resources for export and reliance on coal mining.

Denis Hayes, Organizer of Earth Day It is already too late to avoid mass starvation of all humans on earth.

Peter Gunter, Demography Professor, North Texas State University: “Demographers agree almost unanimously on the following grim timetable: by 1975 widespread famines will begin in India; these will spread by 1990 to include all of India, Pakistan, China and the Near East, Africa. By the year 2000, or conceivably sooner, South and Central America will exist under famine conditions….By the year 2000, thirty years from now, the entire world, with the exception of Western Europe, North America, and Australia, will be in famine.

SOILENT GREEN: These apocalyptic scenarios led to the movie Soilent Green, the apex of this comical episode of an obsession with death by the population bomb. In the movie, the population bomb problem of too many people and not enough food is solved by turning people into food.

DECLINING GROWTH RATE: Yet, since that time, over the last 50 years, from 1970 to 2020 the rate of population growth has steadily declined from 2.1% in 1970 when the polulation was 3.7 billion to 1.1% in 2019 when the population was 7.7 billion. This observed decline is natural and understood in terms of population dynamics of any species. It is not a creation of population activism. We should also note that a declining growth rate in a growing population cannot be described as geometric growth as claimed in the video.

THE POPULATION BOMB: The continued obsession with the population bomb seen in the two Davidism videos above is also seen in a related post : LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/02/29/prophets-of-doom/ , where we find that the Ehrlichean population fearology continues unabated even though the rate of population growth has steadily declined and even though all population studies now forecast continued decline in population growth rate.

COLLAPSE OF CIVILIZATION: A new twist in population fearology that encompasses climate change fearology is the coming collapse of civilization to be caused by a growing population on a finite planet. It is proposed that our population and climate problems will cause human civilization to collapse just as it had collapsed in the past as for example in the Late Bronze Age Collapse. This collapse of civilization has become a common theme in environmental doomology as seen in the two links below.

LINK#1 EHRLICHIAN collapse : https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/16/collapse/

LINK#2 DAVIDISM collapse: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/10/24/collapse-of-civilization-part-2/

Soylent Green Movie (1973) - video Dailymotion

PART-2: THE RESURRECTION OF FAILED MALTHUSIANISM

Both the Ehrlichian Population Bomb and the Population Davidism preached in the videos above are derived from a legacy of failed Malthusianism. Quite unlike the Ehrlichean Population Bomb where Malthus is cited but not brandished, the DAVIDISM presented in the videos above makes a point of citing Malthus as a way of validating the new population Davidism being preached. The DAVIDISM defense of Malthus is that yes he could not foresee the Green Revolution, but his theory is fundamentally sound and now that the Green Revolution has come and gone there is nothing left to save humanity from Malthusianism – growing population with a fixed agricultural food source. This argument contains a gross misunderstanding of the Green Revolution issue. That issue is that a failure to solve the projected problems of the future with technologies of the past is not a valid argument for forecasts of doom. As for example, our current reliance on land for food on a watery planet may change in the future.

As for the planet being overwhelmed with human population, we should also consider the relative insignificance of humans on a planetary scale that is inconsistent with the DAVIDISM horror of 7.8 billion humans on earth. Consider for example, that even as humans are worried about things like carbon pollution and the population bomb in terms of the planet being overwhelmed by the sheer number of humans on earth, humans, like all life on earth, are carbon life forms created from the carbon that came from the mantle of the planet, but a rather insignificant portion of it.

In terms of total weight, humans constitute 0.05212% of the total mass of life on earth. Yet we imagine that our numbers are so huge that the planet will be overwhelmed by our population bomb. All the life on earth taken together is 0.000002875065% of the crust of the planet by weight. The crust of the planet where we live and where we have things like land, ocean, atmosphere, climate, and carbon life forms, is 0.3203% of the planet by weight. The other 99.6797% of the planet, the mantle and core, is a place where we have never been and will never be and on which we have no impact whatsoever.

In terms of the much feared element carbon that is said to cause planetary devastation by way of climate change and ocean acidification, a mass balance shows that the crust of the planet where we live contains 0.201% of the planet’s carbon some of which appear as carbon lifeforms such as humans. The other 99.8% of the carbon inventory of the planet is in the mantle and core.

The crust of the planet where we live is an insignificant portion of the planet. Life on earth is an insignificant portion of the crust of the planet. Humans are an insignificant portion of life on earth. Although it is true that humans must take care of their environment, we propose that the environment should have a more rational definition because the mass balance above does not show that the whole of the planet is our environment.

The Malthusian and DAVIDISM views of our role on a planetary scale likely derives from the communal nature of humans. Like ants and bees, humans are social creatures that live in communities of humans so that when they look around they see humans everywhere. This is the likely source of our human oriented view of the world. Paul Ehrlich’s overpopulation theory is derived from his first visit to India which he described as “people people people people people!” This biased view makes it possible for us to extrapolate Calcutta to the planet and come up with the fearful image described by Jeff Gibbs as “Have you every wondered what would happen if a single species took over an entire planet?” What we see in these DAVIDISM videos is that DAVIDISM is based on this grossly fallacious view described by Jeff Gibbs.

THE DAVIDISM ASUMPTION THAT THE PLANET IS OVERLOADED WITH HUMANS IS ALSO UNDONE WITH A SIMPLE COMPARISON WITH OTHER LIFE FORMS. FOR EXAMPLE, POLAR KRILL SWARMS ARE TYPICALLY 500 MILLION TONNES IN WEIGHT. THE WEIGHT OF 7.8 BILLION HUMANS WITH AN AVERAGE WEIGHT OF 62KG IS 483 MILLION TONNES, LESS THAN A SINGLE SWARM OF POLAR KRILL.

YET ANOTHER CONCLUSION WE CAN DRAW FROM THIS COMPARISON IS THE ENORMOUS FOOD SOURCE IN THE OCEAN THAT IS OVERLOOKED IN THE LAND BASED ANALYSIS OF MALTHUSIANISM AND DAVIDISM.

IT TURNS OUT THAT THE FINITE PLANET IS A LITTLE BIGGER THAN DAVIDISM THINKS IT IS.

Michael Moore Presents: Planet of the Humans — Full Documentary — Directed  by Jeff Gibbs | INVERSE JOURNAL

PART-3: THE CLIMATE AND BAMBI CONNECTIONS

The Green Revolution was not an isolated indicent that is now history. The point of the Green Revolution argument against Malthusianism is that Malthus saw doom and gloom ahead because he could not solve future problems with past technologies. This is the essential Malthusian fallacy in which we now find DAVIDISM. Future food issues will not be solved with the old Green Revolution technology but with new ideas and new technologies. The assumption that all food comes from land and that a greater demand for food on a finite land extent will blow up is a land centered view of earth which is mostly ocean. As land becomes scarce future food technologies may harvest the ocean to much greater extent even down to the bottom where a parallel system of life on earth exists drawing their carbon and their energy not from the sun but from the mantle of the planet. The land assumption in DAVIDISM is just as flawed as the fixed technology assumption of Malthus. LINK: https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article/59/11/967/251334 .

Food and Agriculture economist Jayson Lusk LINK: https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article/59/11/967/251334 Points out yet another flaw in Malthusianism exposed by the post war economic boom in Asia where we find Japan and South Korea are struggling with a declining population and having to import large numbers of workers from South Asia.

On the matter of the “absurd growing of food crops to turn into biofuels for motor cars“, we should point out that this initiative is one required by the “climate emergency” to which DAVIDISIM subscribes whole heartedly as a climate activist. Climate scientists want bofuels to replace fossil fuels and the IPCC had pushed hard for biofuels, a venture that eventually required Indonesia to burn down thousands of square km of forests to plant palm oil plantations for biofuels.

How Fires in Indonesia & Palm Oil Are Killing Orangutans

Large parts of DAVIDISM’S NATURAL WORLD, including orangutans and Sumatran Elephants were wiped out in this climate action venture, a venture promoted by DAVIDISM in numerous videos and lectures.

These endangered Indonesian animals are dying in the worst forest fire on  record | Animalogic

Population Davidism expressed in the videos above is a mirror image of this sordid history of envronmentalism gone awry. Environmentalism which started out as a movement to enhance the quality of life of humans by managing their environs (surroundings) has now been turned 180 degrees by Davidism . Here environmentalism is seen not as care of humans by humans but but the care by humans of the rest of nature other than humans. Davidism holds the rest of nature other than humans as sacred as THE NATURAL WORLD. In Davidism, as in Bambi-ism, the environmental ideal is a humanless world where Bambi and friends can frolic. LINK TO RELATED POST ON BAMBI: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/15/the-bambi-principle/ This fallacious anti-human view of environmentalism leads to fallacious anti-human conclusions. DAVIDISM is a flawed view of nature. Humans are part of nature and not an external evil force from which nature needs to be saved by DAVIDISM.

CLIMATE CHANGE IS THE NEW COLONIALISM | Thongchai Thailand

BAMBI AND FRIENDS IN THE PERFECTION OF THE HUMANLESS WORLD OF DAVIDISM

PART-4: THE BIBLICAL ROOTS OF DAVIDISM

The deeper roots of DAVIDISM and of the Bambi Principle in environmentalism likely derives from Biblical realities described in Genesis. The Biblical roots of the Bambism and DAVIDISM corruption of environmentalism is seen in this Earth Day sermon by Janet Parker:

“Today’s service is in honor of Earth Day, and yesterday the Rock Spring community came together in an extraordinary way to celebrate the goodness of God’s creation and to highlight our role as stewards of creation in our first-ever Earth Day festival. The Earth Day festival was a symphony of creative and inspiring activities that demonstrated our love for the Earth and various ways that we can care for creation and minimize our harmful impacts on the planet. Yet while the mood was celebratory and fun, close attention to the creative exhibits revealed some discordant notes. For example, one of the exhibits that generated interest was the “enviroscape,” an ingenious model that demonstrated how different forms of pollution like pesticides, animal waste, construction materials, litter, agricultural runoff, and oily residue from cars get flushed into our local streams and rivers and run down into the Chesapeake Bay. Exhibits like this reminded us that Earth Day is more than a celebration of nature, though it is surely that. But Earth Day is also implicitly a recognition that something has gone wrong in our relationship with the natural world, something that needs fixing — something that we might describe in religious terms as a call to repentance, and even conversion. Yet here we begin to tread on treacherous ground, because acknowledging the depth of the planetary crisis human beings have created is fraught with danger. I’m not speaking here of political danger, of the suppression of ecological truth by political leaders. I’m speaking of emotional and spiritual danger — the danger that recognition of the true magnitude of our ecological crisis will lead to paralysis and despair. If we are really paying attention, the drumbeat of news about ecological degradation and climate change not only evokes fear, but also a deep sadness. Because if we are tuned in, we sense on some level that the Earth that we know and enjoy right now will not be the Earth that our children and grandchildren inherit. The signs are everywhere. Headlines scream at us: three-fourths of the rockfish in the Chesapeake Bay are diseased. The Shenandoah River is now listed as one of the top ten most endangered rivers in the nation. Glaciers and ice sheets in the Arctic and Antarctic are melting much faster than expected. Warming temperatures over the next century could turn rich agricultural land into desert, dry out the rainforests, raise sea levels, extinguish countless species, and cause disastrous storms. In fact, most scientists now say that climate change is not some- thing facing us in the future, but is already here. The debate over whether global warming is happening is over. The only question is how bad will it get? Dr. Gustave Speth, dean of the School of Forestry & Environmental Studies at Yale, was asked recently if environmental damage due to climate change could be prevented. No, he replied, it’s too late for that. But we may still be able to prevent catastrophic damage. He concluded, “This is our last chance to get it right. We have run out of time.”

This is a reference to the Bible. It is the language of apocalypse — the imagery of the end times and the mysteries of God. The environmental challenges that face us are beginning to look apocalyptic, except now the apocalypse is not a fantasy of fundamentalists, or the stuff of science fiction, but the edge of an abyss that clear- eyed scientists peer over and tremble at. And the threats we face are not orchestrated by God but self-inflicted.

RELATED POST: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/23/apocalyptic-environmentalism-and-climate-change/

It's Time To Think About What Comes After The Apocalypse | OurFuture.org by  People's Action

ANY HUMAN WHO THINKS THAT THERE TOO MANY HUMANS HERE SHOULD LOOK IN THE MIRROR TO FIND ONE OF THOSE HUMANS THAT SHOULD NOT BE HERE.

Mirror Suit Images, Stock Photos & Vectors | Shutterstock

Measuring global warming

THIS POST IS A GRAPHICAL PRESENTATION OF THE GLOBAL WARMING TEMPERATURE DATA IN THE NOAA SATELLITE ERA FROM JANUARY 1979 TO DECEMBER 2020. LOWER TROPOSPHERE TEMPERATURE DATA PROVIDED BY UAHThe University of Alabama Huntsville.

Rocket City scholars: UAH posts impressive academic profile - Yellowhammer  News | Yellowhammer News

PRESENTATION OF TEMPERATURE DATA ONE CALENDAR MONTH AT A TIME FOR ALL GLOBAL REGIONS IN GIF IMAGES THAT CYCLE THROUGH THE TWELVE CALENDAR MONTHS.

Revolving Earth GIFs | Tenor
Satellite Data | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)  formerly known as National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

REGION#1=GLOBAL {LAND AND OCEAN}: GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURES

REGION#2=GLOBAL LAND ONLY: GLOBAL LAND MEAN TEMPERATURES

REGION#3: GLOBAL OCEAN ONLY: GLOBAL MEAN OCEAN TEMPERATURE

REGION#4: THE TROPICS: LAND AND OCEAN MEAN TEMPERATURES

REGION#5: TROPICS LAND ONLY MEAN TEMPERATURES

REGION 6: TROPICS OCEAN ONLY: MEAN TEMPERATURES

REGION#7: NORTHERN EXTENT LAND AND OCEAN MEAN TEMPERATURES

REGION#8: NORTHERN EXTENT LAND ONLY MEAN TEMPERATURES

REGION#9: NORTHERN EXTENT OCEAN ONLY MEAN TEMPERATURES

REGION#10: SOUTHERN EXTENT LAND AND OCEAN MEAN TEMPERATURES

REGION#11: SOUTHERN EXTENT LAND ONLY MEAN TEMPERATURES

REGION#12: SOUTHERN EXTENT OCEAN ONLY MEAN TEMPERATURES

REGION#13: NORTH POLAR REGION LAND AND OCEAN MEAN TEMPERATURES

REGION#14: NORTH POLAR REGION LAND ONLY MEAN TEMPERATURES

REGION#15: NORTH POLAR REGION OCEAN ONLY MEAN TEMPERATURES

REGION#16: SOUTH POLAR REGION LAND AND OCEAN MEAN TEMPERATURES

REGION#17: SOUTH POLAR REGION: LAND ONLY MEAN TEMPERATURES

REGION#18: SOUTH POLAR REGION: OCEAN ONLY MEAN TEMPERATURES

Download Slow Rotating Earth Gif | PNG & GIF BASE

SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS

COMPUTATION OF GLOBAL MEAN WARMING FROM REGIONAL WARMING DATA

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is image-1.png

AREA WEIGHTS OF REGIONS FOR WEIGHTED AVERAGING OF THE RATE OF WARMING

THIS POST PRESENTS UAH SATELLITE DATA FOR 42 YEARS OF SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE PERIOD JANUARY 1979 TO DECEMBER 2020. THE DATA ARE PRESENTED SEPARATELY FOR THE ELEVEN GLOBAL REGIONS {NORTH POLAR LAND AND OCEAN}, {NORTHERN EXTENT LAND AND OCEAN}, {TROPICS LAND AND OCEAN}, {SOUTHERN EXTENT LAND AND OCEAN}, {SOUTH POLAR LAND AND OCEAN}, AND GLOBAL LAND AND OCEAN.

THE DATA ARE PRESENTED SEPAREATELY FOR THE 12 CALENDAR MONTHS ONE MONTH AT A TIME BOTH AS A SUSTAINED 42-YEAR TREND AND AS A SEQUENCE OF DECADAL TRENDS. THE DATA USED IN THE ANALYSIS ARE PROVIDED BY THE UNIVRSITY OF ALABAMA HUNTSVILLE IN THEIR UAH TEMPERATURE DATASET FOR THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE.

A SPECIFIC FEATURE OF THIS ANALYSIS IS THAT THE REGIONAL WARMING DATA FOR THE TEN REGIONS FROM NORTH POLAR TO SOUTH POLAR LISTED ABOVE COMBINED WITH AN AREA WEIGHTED AVERAGE AND COMPARED WITH THE GLOBAL DATA PROVIDED BY UAH. THE COMPARISON SHOWS A CLOSE AGREEMENT OF THE TWO GLOBAL SERIES AND THAT MAY IMPLY THAT THE GLOBAL DATA ARE NOT MEASURED BUT INFERRED IN THIS SAME MANNER.

THE DECADAL WARMING RATES PROVIDED FOR EACH CALENDAR MONTH SHOW CLEARLY THAT THE FULL SPAN TRENDS FOUND IN THE DATA CANNOT BE UNDRSTOOD AS A SUSTAINED RATE OF WARMING FOR THE FULL SPAN WARMING OVER THE FULL SPAN FROM 1079 TO 2020 BUT THAT RATHER THAT THE WARMING RATES REPORTED ABOVE FOR THE FULL SPAN MUST BE UNDERSTOOD AS AN AVERAGE OF WILDLY VARYING SEQUENCE OF DECADAL WARMING AND COOLING CYCLES. THE FULL SPAN WARMING FOUND IN THE DATA IS SIMPLY THE AVERGE OF A WILD VARIATION OF DECADAL WARMING RATES WITH THIS VOLATILITY IN TURN UNDERSTOOD AS AN INTERNAL VARIABILITY ISSUE.

OF THE TEN SUB-REGIONS STUDIED FROM NORTH POLAR TO SOUTH POLAR AND PRESENTED GRAPHICALLY ABOVE, WE FIND THAT THE NORTH POLAR REGION IS WARMING THE FASTEST AND THE SOUTH POLAR REGION THE SLOWEST IF AT ALL. THE TREND LINES ALONG WITH THE CORRESPONDING 95% CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR ALL REGIONS ARE SUMMARIZED IN THE GIF IMAGE BELOW.

SUMMARY OF THE DATA FOR ALL REGIONS IN A GIF IMAGE

The mean full span temperature trend is shown in blue.

The 95% confidence interval for the mean temperature trend is bounded by the red and black lines. The precision varies greatly among the global regions studied.

Satellite Data | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)  formerly known as National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)