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ทำความรู้จักกับ faint young sun paradox ปริศนาที่ยังไม่มีคำตอบโดยสมบูรณ์ |  ฉลาดคิดดอทคอม

THE FAINT YOUNG SUN PARADOX IS A REFERENCE TO THE LOWER LUMINOSITY OF THE YOUNG SUN WHEN THE EARTH SHOULD HAVE BEEN A FROZEN PLANET BUT IT WASN’T.

THIS POST IS A BIBLIOGRAPHICAL STUDY OF THE FAINT YOUNG SUN PARADOX IN THE CONTEXT OF THE THEORY OF ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE ROLES OF GEOLOGICAL CARBON AND ROTATIONAL SPEED IN EXPLAINING WARMING. A MAINLINE PAPER IN THIS FIELD IS ROSING 2010. THE FULL TEXT PDF OF ROSING 2010 IS AVAIALBLE FOR DOWNLOAD AT THIS SITE WITH THE LINK BELOW. {Note: the word Archaean used in this line of research is a reference to the Archaean Eon, the oldest of the geological periods. It refers to the earth in the period from 4.5 to 0.5 billion years ago}.

Earth's Axial Tilt – Obliquity

PART-1: THE FAINT YOUNG SUN PARADOX IN THE CONTEXT OF AGW CLIMATE CHANGE

The faint young Sun paradox {FYSP} was first described by Carl Sagan {Sagan and Mullen 1972). The issue is that a contradiction is implied by the evidence for liquid water early in Earth’s history when solar radiation intensity was 60% to 70% of what it is now, an insufficient amount of energy to explain the presence of liquid water instead of ice. At that lower solar radiance the earth should have been a frozen planet. Climate science has proposed various ways to explain this apparent contradiction in terms of low albedo, high greenhouse effect, faster rotation of the earth, and combinations of these.

The high greenhouse effect is described as large transfers of geological carbon from the mantle to the atmosphere by way of geological processes, a phenomenon not considered in the theory of anthropogenic global warming of today where the source of carbon external to the carbon cycle is limited to fossil fuel emissions and geological sources of carbon are overlooked as described in a related post on this site: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/08/27/carbonflows/ .

Yet another phenomenon used to explain the FYSP but ignored in the understanding of AGW climate change is rotational speed as a variable in the estimation of earth’s mean temperature due to solar irradiance as shown in a related post on this site: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/12/19/the-greenhouse-effect/

Other explanations for the FYSP involve changes to planetary albedo, geothermal heat, and astrophysical influences. In most such explanations of the FYSP, the evidence provided for the existence of the proposed causation mechanism to explain the paradox is that it explains the paradox, a form of circular reasoning. Yet another paradox of this paradox is that despite a significant body of research in this field, the paradox remains a paradox. The word paradox is a fancy defensive way of not having to say that we don’t know. That is, the science that knows all because it is science doesn’t really know all.

A bibliography of a decade of research on the FYSP from the year 2000 to 2011 is presented below. The overall conclusion of this body of research is that climate science can explain the FYSP in ways that are consistent with the theory of anthropogenic global warming by way of the fossil fuel emissions of the industrial economy. However, as noted above significant inconsistencies and contradictions remain unresolved. These are (1) circular reasoning, (2) inconsistencies with today’s AGW climate science where neither geological flows of carbon nor the temperature effect of rotational speed are considered, and that (3) despite a significant body of research since 1972, the faint young son paradox remains a paradox meaning that we don’t really know although we know for sure that fossil fuels cause warming.

ADDENDUM: IN THE FIRST COMMENT BELOW, A COMPUTATION OF THE EARTH’S MEAN TEMPERATURE EXPLAINED BY SOLAR LUMINOSITY WHEN ROTATIONAL SPEED IS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT EXPLAINS THE FYSP IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FYSP RESEARCH IN THE BIBLIOGRAPHY. THIS COMMENT IS BY CHRISTOS VOURNAS, THE BLOGGER THAT HAS BEEN ARGUING AGAINST THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT WITH THE SAME MATHEMATICS. LINK: https://www.cristos-vournas.com/ . WHAT SEPARATES CHRISTOS FROM MAINSTREAM AGW CLIMATE SCIENCE, BUT NOT FROM FYSP CLIMATE SCIENCE, ARE TWO ISSUES. THEY ARE THE ROTATIONAL SPEED AND EARTH’S WATERY SURFACE THAT HE AND FYSP RESEARCHERS SAY CHANGE THE EQUILIBRIUM SURFACE TEMPERATURE FOR ANY GIVEN LEVEL OF SOLAR RADIANCE.

A Possible Solution to the “Faint Young Sun Paradox” in Primordial Asteroid  Impacts | News | Astrobiology

PART-2: A FAINT YOUNG SUN PARADOX BIBLIOGRAPHY

  1. Jenkins, Gregory S. “Global climate model high‐obliquity solutions to the ancient climate puzzles of the Faint‐Young Sun Paradox and low‐altitude Proterozoic glaciation.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 105.D6 (2000): 7357-7370. There is a general consensus that warm temperatures throughout Precambrian were caused by very high CO2 or CH4 atmospheric concentrations. Episodes of glaciation in the early and late Proterozoic were caused by a reduction in these greenhouse gases through intensive weathering or large reduction in the methane producing bacteria population. There are suggestions that these episodes were global because the continents occupied low latitudes at or near the time of glaciation. Here it is reported that high‐obliquity throughout the Precambrian serves as a mechanism for producing warm temperatures throughout the Archean and glaciation in the late Proterozoic. In this paper, Global climate model simulations using high‐obliquity values that range from 54° to 70° are undertaken. These simulations use a simple 50‐m slab ocean, a faster rotation rate corresponding to an 18 hour day, an idealized supercontinent located in the tropics which has a north‐south mountain chain and CO2 concentrations which range from 170 to 3400 ppmv. Further, four simulations under global ocean conditions, faster rotation rate and reduced solar constant (15 and 20%) using present‐day and high‐obliquity values have been undertaken. The simulations show warm conditions with high‐obliquity but Snowball Earth conditions for the present‐day obliquity in the global ocean simulations. Near Snowball Earth conditions also occur for the tropical supercontinent simulation for an obliquity of 70° and CO2 concentrations less than 1020 ppmv. Together, these simulations show that for high‐obliquity the ocean remains relatively warm while land areas are cooled because of their lower heat capacity. Large fluxes of latent heat from the ocean balance the longwave energy lost at the top of the atmosphere thereby keeping high latitudes warm during winter seasons. It is suggested from this results that lower and upper limits of 65°–70° for obliquity serve as a solution for the Faint‐Young Sun Paradox and low‐latitude Proterozoic. Finally, the high‐obliquity‐climate relationship sheds some insight on the carbon isotope (δ13C) excursions during the late Proterozoic.
  2. Gaidos, Eric J., Manuel Güdel, and Geoffrey A. Blake. “The faint young Sun paradox: An observational test of an alternative solar model.” Geophysical research letters 27.4 (2000): 501-503. We report the results of deep observations at radio (3.6 cm) wavelengths of the nearby solar‐type star π01 Ursa Majoris with the Very Large Array (VLA) intended to test an alternative theory of solar luminosity evolution. The standard model predicts a solar luminosity only 75% of the present value and surface temperatures below freezing on Earth and Mars at 4 Ga, seemingly in conflict with geologic evidence for liquid water on these planets. An alternative model invokes a compensatory mass loss through a declining solar wind that results in a more consistent early luminosity. The free‐free emission from an enhanced wind around nearby young Sun‐like stars should be detectable at microwave frequencies. Our observations of π01 UMa, a 300 million year‐old solar‐mass star, place an upper limit on the mass loss rate of 4–5 × 10−11 M⊙yr−1. Total mass loss from such a star over 4 Gyr would be less than 6%. If this star is indeed an analog of the early Sun, it casts doubt on the alternative model as a solution to the faint young Sun paradox, particularly for Mars.
  3. Ueno, Yuichiro, et al. “Geological sulfur isotopes indicate elevated OCS in the Archean atmosphere, solving faint young sun paradox.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106.35 (2009): 14784-14789. Distributions of sulfur isotopes in geological samples would provide a record of atmospheric composition if the mechanism producing the isotope effects could be described quantitatively. We determined the UV absorption spectra of 32SO233SO2, and 34SO2 and use them to interpret the geological record. The calculated isotopic fractionation factors for SO2 photolysis give mass independent distributions that are highly sensitive to the atmospheric concentrations of O2, O3, CO2, H2O, CS2, NH3, N2O, H2S, OCS, and SO2 itself. Various UV-shielding scenarios are considered and we conclude that the negative Δ33S observed in the Archean sulfate deposits can only be explained by OCS shielding. Of relevant Archean gases, OCS has the unique ability to prevent SO2 photolysis by sunlight at λ >202 nm. Scenarios run using a photochemical box model show that ppm levels of OCS will accumulate in a CO-rich, reducing Archean atmosphere. The radiative forcing, due to this level of OCS, is able to resolve the faint young sun paradox. Further, the decline of atmospheric OCS may have caused the late Archean glaciation.
  4. Rondanelli, Roberto, and Richard S. Lindzen. “Can thin cirrus clouds in the tropics provide a solution to the faint young Sun paradox?.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 115.D2 (2010). In this paper we present radiative‐convective simulations to test the idea that tropical cirrus clouds, acting as a negative feedback on climate, can provide a solution to the faint young Sun paradox. We find that global mean surface temperatures above freezing can indeed be found for luminosities larger than about 0.8 (corresponding to ∼2.9 Ga and nearly complete tropical cirrus coverage). For luminosities smaller than 0.8, even though global mean surface temperatures are below freezing, tropical mean temperatures are still above freezing, indicating the possibility of a partially ice‐free Earth for the Early Archean. We discuss possible mechanisms for the functioning of this negative feedback. While it is feasible for tropical cirrus to completely eliminate the paradox, it is similarly possible for tropical cirrus to reduce the amounts of other greenhouse gases needed for solving the paradox and therefore easing the constraints on CO2 and CH4 that appear to be in disagreement with geological evidence. Introduction
    [2] Models for the evolution of the Sun during the main sequence call for a reduced solar luminosity and therefore a reduced Earth’s solar constant of about S = 0.75 S0 around 3.8 Ga (with S0 the present solar constant ∼1353 W/m2) [Schwarzschild, 1958; Newman and Rood, 1977]. At the same time, geological evidence shows the presence of a stable ocean and liquid water in the planet at least after 3.9 Ga (and perhaps even earlier [e.g., Wilde et al., 2001; Pinti, 2005]). The fact that simple models of the Earth’s climate cannot reconcile the reduced luminosity with the presence of liquid water (and the absence of glacial deposits) has become known as the faint young Sun paradox [Sagan and Mullen, 1972]. The paradox hinges on the assumption of a constant atmospheric composition or, more precisely, on the assumption of a constant atmospheric greenhouse effect and a constant atmospheric solar reflectivity (both including gases and clouds). As an illustration, one can use a crude zero‐dimensional energy balance for the atmosphere to calculate the mean global surface temperature as Ts=Tg+((1-A)*S)/(4*sigma))^0.25 [ Catling and Kasting, 2007]. where A is the planetary albedo and Tg is a temperature that encapsulates the greenhouse effect of the atmosphere and clouds. For current climate with A = 0.3 and Tg = 34, Ts = 288 K. According to the standard solar model, the luminosity, and therefore the variation of the solar constant can be approximated by [Gough, 1981] S=S(0)/(1+0.4t/4.6) where t is the time in Ga. Under the assumption of a constant greenhouse effect, the simple zero‐dimensional model gives Ts = 269 K for a solar luminosity of S = 0.75 S0, ∼ 3.9 Ga. Ts rises above freezing for S ∼ 0.79 S0, which corresponds to 2.9 Ga. It might seem that a much reduced value of A in equation (1) could increase the temperature above freezing. However, the absence of clouds (the main driver of the albedo) would also result in a significant reduction of the greenhouse effect. Solutions that involve high CO2 atmospheric concentrations are particularly appealing given the existence of large reservoirs of carbon in the Earth’s mantle and continents. LINK TO FULL TEXT: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2009JD012050
  5. Goldblatt, Colin, and Kevin J. Zahnle. “Faint young Sun paradox remains.” Nature 474.7349 (2011): E1-E1. ABSTRACT: The Sun was fainter when the Earth was young, but the climate was generally at least as warm as today; this is known as the ‘faint young Sun paradox’. Rosing et al.1 claim that the paradox can be resolved by making the early Earth’s clouds and surface less reflective. We show that, even with the strongest plausible assumptions, reducing cloud and surface albedos falls short by a factor of two of resolving the paradox. A temperate Archean climate cannot be reconciled with the low level of CO2 suggested by Rosing et al.1; a stronger greenhouse effect is needed. During the Archean eon, the Earth received 76% to 83% of the energy from the Sun that it does today. If the Earth’s greenhouse effect and albedo were the same as now, the Earth would have been in continual deep freeze until one billion years ago, with glaciers reaching the Equator. However, Archean glacial sediments are rare and geological evidence indicates that the Archean was typically warmer than today (we are in a glacial period now). With the amount of energy reaching the Earth given by F = ¼S0(1 − α) = 239 W m−2 (using the present-day solar constant S0 = 1,368 and albedo α = 0.3), the radiative deficit in the Archean would have been (1–0.79)F ≈ 50 W m−2. Resolution of the ‘faint young Sun paradox’ requires a positive radiative forcing—from reducing the albedo or increasing the greenhouse effect—of more than 50 W m−2. Clouds have two competing radiative effects: they reflect sunlight but they also add to the greenhouse effect if they are colder than the surface. Reflection dominates in low clouds, and the greenhouse effect dominates in high clouds. Therefore the absolute upper bound on warming by decreasing cloud reflectivity would be found by removing low clouds entirely. This gives a forcing of 25 W m−2, half of what is needed to resolve the ‘faint young Sun paradox’ (our cloud model is described in the Methods). Any reduction to high clouds would cause a cooling. Rosing et al.1 justify less-reflective clouds with the incorrect statements that most cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) are from biogenic dimethyl sulphide (DMS), and that DMS is solely produced by eukaryotes. DMS is also produced microbially2. Products of DMS contribute only 3% of Northern Hemisphere CCN and 10% of Southern Hemisphere CCN today3. Other biological4 and non-biological sources, especially sea salt, provide CCN. If CCN production were to depend only on eukaryotic DMS emissions1, we would expect to see significant cooling when eukaryotes evolved, but no such cooling is evident. Nevertheless, we can assume no biological CCN supply and quantify the resulting forcing. Over the modern ocean the effective radius re of cloud drops rarely exceeds 15 µm (ref. 5) even in remote and unproductive regions (the re of 17 µm to 30 µm used by Rosing et al.1 is too high). For an upper bound, we increase low cloud droplet size by 50% from our standard case, from 11 µm to 16.5 µm. With no change in cloud thickness, the forcing is 7 W m−2. Clouds with larger drops may rain out faster. Parameterizations of enhanced rain-out vary from proportional to (re,0/re)1 to proportional to (re,0/re)5.37 (refs 6 and 7); the corresponding extra forcing would be 4–15 W m−2 (remote sensing data for marine stratus suggest that the low end of this range is more appropriate8). The sum is 11 W m−2 to 22 W m−2, with the low end being most likely. The authoritative estimate of the global energy budget9 gives global mean and ocean albedos of 0.125 and 0.090 respectively. The largest realistic surface darkening is from the present mean to an all-ocean world, which gives a radiative forcing of 5 W m−2. Increasing the CO2 mixing ratio to 1,000 parts per million by volume (p.p.m.v.; the upper bound according to Rosing et al.1) gives a forcing of 6 W m−2. Rosing et al.1 rely on 1,000 p.p.m.v. CH4 for much of their warming, ignoring relevant atmospheric chemistry. As the partial pressure of CH4 () approaches that of CO2 (), hydrocarbon haze forms in the stratosphere, the cooling effect of which outweighs the greenhouse effect of CO2 and CH4 (refs 10 and 11). Numerical models12 predict haze production when / = 0.1 and haze production has been seen in laboratory experiments13 where / = 0.3. With 1,000 p.p.m.v. CO2, the maximum CH4 concentration that can give warming is 300 p.p.m.v., which would contribute 7 W m−2 of additional forcing. Changes to clouds could in theory considerably reduce the amount of greenhouse gases required, because gaseous absorption depends on the logarithm of gas abundance. But even with the highly unlikely assumption of no biological CCN supply, cloud changes can provide only one-quarter to one-half of the required radiative forcing. Any changes to clouds would require strong justification, which Rosing et al.1 do not provide. A strong greenhouse effect is required in the Archean. The alternative is an extremely cold climate with continual mid- to low-latitude glaciation, for which there is no evidence.

Planetary Equilibrium Temperature

THE CLIMATE SCIENCE ANALYSIS OF PLANETARY EQUILIBRIUM TEMPERATURE: {FROM UCAR}

LINK TO SOURCE: https://scied.ucar.edu/planetary-energy-balance-temperature-calculate

The simple case of a rocky planet with no air or water. Sunlight is absorbed by the planet’s surface, heating the ground. Any object with a temperature above absolute zero emits electromagnetic radiation. For planets, that outgoing EM radiation takes the form of infrared. The planet will continue to warm until the outgoing infrared energy exactly balances the incoming energy from the sun. We can calculate the temperature at which thermal equilibrium is reached. Solar energy arriving at the earth’s surface (insolation) is 1,361 watts per square meter.  We now multiply insolation by area to compute total incoming energy. The amount of light intercepted by our spherical planet is the cross sectional area of the earth computed as pi*r-squared where r, the radius of the earth, is 6371km or 6,371,000 meters. Thus, he equation for the solar energy intercepted by the earth is:

  • E = total energy intercepted
  • KS = solar insolation (“solar constant”) = 1,361 watts per square meter
  • RE = radius of Earth = 6,371 km = 6,371,000 meters
  • Using these values we compute

Using the values described above we find that the earth intercepts about 1.735E18 watts of sunlight.

Since Earth is not a blackbody, some of this energy is reflected away and not absorbed by our planet (albedo). To determine how much energy Earth absorbs from sunlight, we multiply the energy intercepted by (1-albedo) as shown below.

The sunlight Earth absorbs causes the temperature of the planet to rise and that causes the earth to emit heat in the form of infrared (IR) and the temperature to fall to equilibrium where outgoing and incoming energy balance and cancel out. Using the Stefan Boltzmann equation we compute that equilibrium temperature as:

Stefan-Boltzmann law
  • j* = energy flux
  • σ = Stefan-Boltzmann constant = 5.670373 x 10-8 watts / m2 K4 (m = meters, K = kelvins)
  • T = absolute temperature (degrees-K)

The Stefan-Boltzmann law tells us how much infrared energy Earth will emit per unit area. We need to multiply this by the total area of Earth’s surface to calculate the total amount of energy emitted by Earth. Since Earth rotates, all of it’s surface is heated by sunlight. Therefore, the whole surface of the spherical planet emits infrared radiation. We can’t use the same shortcut we used for incoming sunlight by treating Earth as equivalent to a disk. Geometry tells us that the surface area of a sphere is four times pi times the radius of the sphere squared. Multiplying the energy emissions per unit area times the surface area of Earth, we derive an expression for Earth’s total infrared energy emissions:

Setting energy coming in = energy going out, we compute the equilibrium temperature

Earth’s overall, average albedo is about 0.31 (or 31%). The value of the Stefan-Boltzmann constant (σ) is 5.6704 x 10-8 watts / m2 K4. Using these numbers and the value for KS we can calculate Earth’s equilibrium temperature as:

Earth Temperature equation

The temperature of the earth measured by satellite is 287.15K. Therefore the difference, 287.15 – 253.7 = 33.45K of heat cannot be explained in terms of this heat balance. The usual explanation of this imbalance is that the atmosphere absorbs outgoing heat and re-radiates IR in all directions, a phenomenon described as the greenhouse effect.

But it’s not really that simple because there is an unexplained anomaly here called the Faint Young Sun Paradox (FYSP). You can google that phrase for information on the FYSP. The bottom line is that it’s a paradox and that’s a fancy way of saying we don’t know. Below is a Youtube video discussion of this issue.

THE CHRISTOS VOURNAS BLOG LINK: https://www.cristos-vournas.com/

The Christos Vournas blog presents an estimation of the equilibrium surface temperature of the earth without an atmosphere. His finding is that the equilibrium temperature is 287.74K equal to the measured earth temperature from space and that therefore there is no role for the atmosphere in the temperature equation. A significant difference in the two theoretical planetary models is this sentence in the Vournas blog: Earth is warmer because Earth rotates faster and because Earth’s surface is covered with water.

These two variables are missing in the standard climate science model of equilibrium planetary temperature where planets are smooth rocky balls and where the spin velocity is not relevant to temperature. The contradiction here is that in the study of the Faint Young Sun Paradox described in a related post : LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/12/21/the-faint-young-sun-paradox-geological-co2/ , both rotational speed and oceans are considered in the mean earth temperature computation.


Grygorchuk Mykyta 6 Form. The planet Earth is mostly water. Oceans cover  the biggest part of it – and there are lakes, rivers, streams, and even  water. - ppt download

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Eco-Grief: Why Climate Change Anxiety is Keeping Us Awake at Night

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF AN ONLINE ARTICLE BY PSYCHE MAGAZINE ON {The climate emergency is taking a serious toll on mental health}. LINK TO SOURCE: https://psyche.co/ideas/the-climate-emergency-is-taking-a-serious-toll-on-mental-health

How to address climate grief » Yale Climate Connections

PART-1: WHAT THE SOURCE ARTICLE SAYS

Climate anxiety, ecological grief, solastalgia: in the past few years, a plethora of new terms has emerged to capture our growing concerns about climate change. For example, 57 per cent of American adolescents report that climate change makes them feel afraid, and 55 per cent of adults in the UK report that it’s affecting their wellbeing. These emotional reactions are meaningful and distressing, and at times might require therapeutic action. But they don’t provide a complete picture. Alongside the general distress that people experience when faced with this crisis, or the prospect of it, climate change is also causing and exacerbating severe mental health problems.

The increase in global temperatures over the previous century has led to more frequent and more violent extreme weather events in the past 20 years, such as floods and hurricanes. These directly affect mental health as they can expose people to potentially traumatic events: they might see loved ones injured or killed, or experience a threat to their own lives. In a minority of people, such extreme stressors can trigger post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression or anxiety disorders. These climate disasters also have an indirect impact through their effects on poverty, loss of housing and unemployment – all of which can have profound detrimental effects on mental health.

In parallel, the slow-creeping increase in global temperature can, in and of itself, severely impact people’s mental health. Hospital admissions for mental disorders tend to increase during heatwaves. One study from Canada reported a 29 per cent rise in emergency psychiatric room visits following unusually hot temperatures. Another showed that more individuals with bipolar disorder are admitted to hospital during warmer months. A longitudinal study with more than 9 million participants showed that those living in regions of Taiwan with higher temperatures were especially likely to develop a major depressive disorder.

Heat causes these problems for a number of reasons. For example, high temperatures can make people feel more stressed, angry and fatigued, and they can also disrupt sleep – all of which can lead to or exacerbate mental health problems. Extreme heat can also cause delirium, a state of mental confusion, agitation and distress. Lastly, certain psychiatric medications make it harder to regulate body temperature, meaning heatwaves are more uncomfortable and dangerous for individuals taking these drugs.

Higher temperatures appear to be related to suicide rates as well. Studies in multiple countries including India, Mexico, the United States and Japan show that suicide rates increase when temperatures increase. This might be because high temperatures worsen psychiatric symptoms, but there could be many other explanations – reflecting the multiple factors that contribute to suicide. The evidence remains too sparse to draw overarching conclusions, but one possibility is that extreme heat leads to decreases in crop yields, leading to poverty and economic hardship, which in turn could increase the suicide risk in certain groups such as farmers.

Heat is not the only climate-related factor that has an impact on mental health. Climate change is also causing higher levels of air pollution, and this has been linked to a variety of mental health problems including depression, anxiety and suicide. Air pollution might also be linked to dementia: a London-based study looked at health records of 131,000 patients aged 50 to 79, and found a 40 per cent heightened risk of being diagnosed with dementia among those living in the most polluted areas. This is not surprising as air pollutants can impact every organ in the human body, including the brain.

It is normal for people to feel sadness, grief, anger and anxiety when faced with environmental devastation on a global scale. More broadly, climate change has a substantial impact on physical health, which inevitably affects mental health as these are simply different faces of the same coin. Consider the example of crop yields – since 1960, climate change has reduced the global yield potential for all major crops. This has contributed to child malnutrition and stunting globally, which can lead to disruptions in brain development and life-long cognitive and psychosocial impairments. Climate change also increases the risk of certain diseases – such as the mosquito-borne dengue fever. These can affect mental health directly, because of the distress they cause, or indirectly, because people with these diseases often face stigma and discrimination.

Climate change is therefore already having a significant and wide-ranging effect on mental health. But strategies to buffer and prevent this detrimental impact exist. One of the main pathways through which climate change affects mental health is by heightening and triggering social and economic inequality, and this can be addressed through appropriate social policies and good governance. Some of the most effective strategies to prevent and address poor mental health at a population level involve reducing poverty and inequality, providing access to adequate housing and employment, and establishing social support nets. All of these are relevant in a changing climate. A recent report in the UK, for example, highlights how building energy-efficient homes would provide protection from overheating during hot months, which would have knock-on benefits for physical and mental health.

It’s also important to remember that people can show extraordinary degrees of resistance and resilience in the face of adversity. As a researcher, I have worked with communities affected by armed conflict and disaster, and life doesn’t grind to a halt when the ground starts shaking or the first shots are fired. On most mornings, against a backdrop of armed conflict and occupation, fresh fruit and vegetables are sold in the markets of Ramallah in Palestine. Sheep are walked to pasture in the mountainous regions ravaged by earthquakes in Central Italy. Fishermen leave the harbours of Minamisōma in Fukushima, Japan close to the site of the 2011 tsunami and nuclear disaster. Of course, some people experience significant mental health problems due to climate change and other crises, and those with a pre-existing mental illness are often disproportionately affected. But most people endure, resist and actively navigate the suffering they face using their own individual and social resources.

There are also things that all of us can do to help. We should pay attention to, and harness, the milder distress that so many of us feel when we think about climate change. It is normal for people to feel sadness, grief, anger and anxiety when faced with environmental devastation on a global scale. Of course, if such feelings become overwhelming and paralysing, they can be unhelpful. But as a paper aptly titled ‘My Worries Are Rational, Climate Change Is Not’ (2013) highlights, habitual ecological worrying is not necessarily pathological. It can actually be linked to pro-environmental attitudes and behaviours such as using public transport when possible or being a member of an environmental organisation. A degree of anger, angst and indignation can push people to act against a status quo that is perceived as unfair and unjust. We should be wary of pathologising these reactions, as it might mean proposing a psychological solution to a problem whose origins lie in society and politics rather than minds.

When I see thirsty yellow grass burnt by the summer sun in my local park in London, or hear the sound of a nearby glacier collapsing as I hike in the north of Italy where I grew up, I too feel sad, disgusted and guilty. I wish I didn’t have to feel this way. But these feelings also give me the necessary energy and strength to care about the disruption caused by climate change, and the serious mental health problems that happen as a result. Effective and feasible solutions to mitigate and adapt to climate change exist, such as cutting greenhouse emissions to net zero as quickly as possible. We can all use our voices, our choices and our votes to demand that governments and industries pursue this. Our future as a species will depend on whether these solutions are implemented or not. If we have to get angry or feel anxious to fight for this to happen, so be it.

ClimateCultures - creative conversations for the Anthropocene

PART-2: CRITICAL COMMENTARY

WHAT WE CAN LEARN FROM THIS SINCERE OUTPOURING OF CLIMATE CHANGE CONCERN FOR OTHERS, THE CLIMATE GRIEF OF THE AUTHOR, AND THE PLEA FOR CLIMATE ACTION AS THE ENDING IS THAT THE STANDARD AND RATIONAL PLEAS FOR CLIMATE ACTION ARE NOT WORKING POSSIBLY BECAUSE THEY LACK THE SUBSTANCE NECESSARY TO BE EFFECTIVE. THE CLIMATE MOVEMENT IS LOOKING FOR NEW GROUND, NEW AUDIENCES, AND NEW WAYS TO PUSH FOR CLIMATE ACTION. THE OLD STANDARD CRY OF SCIENCE SCIENCE SCIENCE AND SIMPLY CRANKING UP THE HARSHNESS OF THE CLIMATE PUNISHMENTS FOR FAILING TO TAKE CLIMATE ACTION ARE NOT WORKING. CLIMATE ACTION FEARMONGERING HAS A NEW STRATEGY.

Climate Grief' Is Real and I've Got It Bad
Solastalgia': Arctic inhabitants overwhelmed by new form of climate grief |  Environment | The Guardian
English Activities : Will or going to - The future of planet Earth -  Reading and writing exercises (short text)

Montreal Climate Coalition – For a carboneutral city

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF AN ONLINE ARTICLE ON CLIMATE CHANGE FROM CANADA POSTED BY THE MONTREAL CLIMATE COALITION. THE ARTICLE CALLS FOR CLIMATE ACTION AND EXPLAINS THE SCIENCE OF CLIMATE ACTION AS PROPOSED BY CLIMATE SCIENCE. THIS SCIENCE IS THEN USED TO PUSH FOR CLIMATE ACTION AS A REQUIREMENT SUPPORTED BY SCIENCE THAT MUST NOT BE QUESTIONED. LINK TO SOURCE: https://coalitionclimatmtl.org/en/carbon-budget/ .

Regulatory momentum builds in Canada - iGaming Business

PART-1: WHAT THE SOURCE ARTICLE SAYS (edited and abbreviated)

What is a carbon budget?: Our climate is in bad shape. The consensus among scientists is that global warming is real, caused by human activities, and potentially disastrous to our continued survival as a species. The good news is that there are very real solutions to this seemingly insurmountable problem – the only thing we have to do is put those solutions in place by implementing a climate budget. The carbon budget is a very important concept that will be key to our success at fighting climate change. In order to understand what a carbon budget is, you need to understand that cumulative emissions matter. It means that we must stop emissions entirely.

Climate change 101: when carbon dioxide (and other greenhouse gases) are released into the atmosphere, they trap the sun’s heat, warming the Earth. Because the gases don’t disappear over time, it doesn’t matter where or when they’re released, they will eventually cause the same amount of warming. Specifically, every trillion tonnes of CO2 emitted will cause about 0.5° C of warming. I should point out here that not all greenhouse gases are released into the atmosphere as a result of human activity – there’s a natural carbon cycle that’s always at play, and many natural processes that cause the emission of carbon dioxide. However, the prevailing scientific view at this time is that human activity is accelerating the greenhouse effect due to the massive amount of greenhouses gases that are created by human industry like the burning of coal and oil. At a certain point, we won’t be able to put any more carbon dioxide into the sky – our emissions will need to reach zero. This means that if we want to avoid the 1.5°C of warming that scientists say is the only way to keep our climate liveable, there’s a finite amount of CO2 that we can emit into the atmosphere. That finite amount of carbon is called the carbon budget.

Why You Should Care: You should care because Canada’s current climate strategy doesn’t include a carbon budget, and it should! Canada’s current climate plan is based on annual emissions targets. We set a goal to reduce our emissions by a given percentage of a previous year. For example, Canada’s target for 2030 is to reduce emissions by 30% from 2005 levels. Both strategies aim to reduce the amount of greenhouse gas we produce, but science says that a carbon budget will be far more effective at helping us avoid the worst outcomes of climate change. The problem with annual emissions targets is that this plan will inevitably lead to more CO2 being released into the atmosphere. What matters is cumulative emissions so more CO2 means more warming and therefore more catastrophe. Another issue is that emissions targets don’t account for the fact that many countries the world over are not in a position to rapidly decarbonize, or that some countries are already guilty of carbon-loading the atmosphere more than others. While some folks might think it unfair that Canada should further tighten the carbon-belt in order to allow developing countries to play catch up, it’s the only strategy that makes sense. At the moment, Canada ranks 15 out of 17 countries for greenhouse gas emissions per capita (that’s a D grade by the way) because we are using far more than our fair share of the carbon budget. Our atmosphere and climate are shared, so what Canadians do will have impact elsewhere, and what happens in other countries will eventually impact Canadians, for better or for worse. Some political leaders and policy-makers have argued that this means that it doesn’t matter what we do! Even if we reduce our emissions to zero, other countries will still be emitting tonnes and tonnes, so we might as well just do whatever we want! This non-solution is counterproductive at best – using a carbon budget in our climate change plans will allow Canada to ethically account not only for our historical responsibility when it comes to carbon emissions, but to allow space for developing countries to upgrade their infrastructure and prepare for what’s coming. Another benefit of using a carbon budget in policy is that politicians are used to working with budgets. We get a new one every year, right? You might be thinking “But politicians are bad at everything, including budgets! We’re doomed!” Calm down. Politicians have far more experience working with budgets than with targets. And while it might seem like only a semantic difference, the way in which progress is monitored and oversight is done is quite different. The bureaucratic infrastructure needed to use a carbon budget in our climate policy is already in place – how convenient!

The Carbon Budgets of Climate Science | Thongchai Thailand

Hopefully by now we can all agree on the following: 1. Climate change is happening and 2. we need to take steps to prevent the worst outcomes. 3. Cumulative emissions matter – 4. finite amount of greenhouse gas emissions left to avoid 1.5° C of warming. Using a carbon budget makes more sense and will lead to better outcomes that using annual emissions targets. It’s smarter, more ethical, and could even be easier to do.

global climate strike

PART-2: CRITICAL COMMENTARY

RESPONSE#1: THE TCRE CARBON BUDGET IS A RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE AND GLOBAL FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS. IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO UNDERSTAND THIS RELATIONSHIP IN TERMS OF ANY SINGLE COUNTRY OR TO FORMULATE COUNTRY BASED CLIMATE ACTION POLICY. THIS IS WHY THE UN IS INVOLVED IN THE ISSUE. IT WAS THOUGHT THAT THE UN COULD PUT TOGETHER AND ENFORCE A GLOBAL CARBON BUDGET JUST AS THEY HAD PUT TOGETHER THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL FOR THE OZONE. THE ISSUE HERE IS THAT THE UN HAS FAILED. THIS ARTICLE BY THE MONTREAL CLIMATE COALITION WHICH TRIES TO DESCRIBE HOW A SINGLE COUNTRY LIKE CANADA CAN TAKE OVER THIS FAILED UN RESPONSIBILITY IN TERMS OF NATIONAL CLIMATE POLICY IS A LOGICAL IMPOSSIBLITY. GLOBAL WARMING IS A GLOBAL ISSUE AND A CORRECTIVE RESPONSE IF ANY HAS TO BE GLOBAL. IT’S GLOBAL OR NOTHING. {Related post on this issue https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/05/22/climate-catch22/ }

NASA Climate Change - Home | Facebook

RESPONSE#2: THE TCRE CARBON BUDGET IS BASED ON THE OBSERVED CORRELATION BETWEEN GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERARURE AND CUMULATIVE GLOBAL EMISSIONS. FOR THE CARBON BUDGET CONSTRUCTION REQUIRES AND ASSSUMES A LINEAR RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CUMULATIVE GLOBAL EMISSIONS AND GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE. YET WHAT WE FIND IN THE SETTLED SCIENCE OF CLIMATE SCIENCE, THAT MUST NOT BE QUESTIONED, IS THAT THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT OF CO2 IS LOGARITHMIC WHICH IMPLIES THAT THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CUMULATIVE GLOBAL EMISSIONS AND GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERARURE IS LOGARITHMIC. THEREFORE THE CARBON BUDGET OF CLIMATE SCIENCE AND THE THEORY OF THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT OF CO2 IN CLIMATE SCIENCE CAN’T BOTH BE CORRECT BECAUSE OF THIS MATHEMATICAL INCONSISTENCY. {Related post on this issue: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/08/26/a-mathematical-inconsistency/ }

Tip of the Week: What's with all the inconsistency? | Change ...

RESPONSE#3: AN EXPLANATION FOR THE MATHEMATICAL INCONSISTENCY DESCRIBED IN RESPONSE#2 IS PROVIDED IN A RELATED POST WHERE WE SHOW THAT THE OBSERVED CORRELATION BETWEEN GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE AND CUMULATIVE GLOBAL FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS IS SPURIOUS: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/05/06/tcre/ . A time series of he cumulative values of another time series contains neither time scale nor degrees of freedom and therefore does not contain useful information. It is further shown that the faux correlation is a creation of the sign patterns in the data where emissions are always positive and during a time of warming, annual warmings are mostly positive. It implies that not just emissions but any variable with positive values works just as well: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/12/03/tcruparody/ .

ufo2

RESPONSE#4: FINITE TIME SCALES: Finite time scales and degrees of freedom in the derived time series can be regained if cumulative values are computed over finite time periods less than the full span. If these results show a correlation then some relationship between emissions and temperature can be claimed. However, a test at a decadal time scale, where a ten year window moves through the source time series one year at a time, did not yield a correlation – providing further support for the earlier finding that the TCRE is a spurious correlation where no interpretation of the correlation is possible in terms of he real world variables that these numbers represent. LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/12/a-decadal-tcre/

CONCLUSIONS: (1) THE TCRE IS A SPURIOUS CORRELATION AND THEREFORE CARBON BUDGETS DERIVED FROM IT HAVE NO INTERPRETATION IN TERMS OF THE REAL WORLD VARIABLES USED IN ITS CONSTRUCTION. (2) CARBON BUDGETS COMPUTED BY CLIMATE SCIENCE REPRESENT A CLAIMED RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GLOBAL EMISSIONS AND THE WARMING IN GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE. (3) THEREFORE ONLY GLOBAL EMISSIONS CAN BE UNDERSTOOD AND ANALYZED IN THIS CONTEXT. (4) THERE IS NO DIRECT IMPLICATION FOR NATIONAL CLIMATE POLICY IN TERMS OF THE TCRE CARBON BUDGET. (5) THEREFORE, THE MONTREAL CLIMATE COALITION ARGUMENTS PRESENTED ARE FLAWED AT MULTIPLE LEVELS – (A) THE BUDGET CONSTRUCTION IS STATISTICALLY FLAWED AND (B) EVEN IF IT WEREN’T FLAWED, IT HAS NO DIRECT IMPLICATION FOR NATIONAL CLIMATE POLICY BECAUSE IT REFERS ONLY TO GLOBAL CLIMATE POLICY.

Spurious Correlations

THE YOUNGER YOU ARE AND THE LESS YOU STUDY STATISTICS THE EASIER IT GETS TO DO THIS

Pyrolysis of Municipal Wastes | BioEnergy Consult
Integrating anaerobic digestion and slow pyrolysis improves the product  portfolio of a cocoa waste biorefinery - Sustainable Energy & Fuels (RSC  Publishing) DOI:10.1039/D0SE00689K

Pyrolysis of waste, and specifically of agricultural waste, is a well developed and commonly used technology that can recover the carbon in waste material as biochar for use as fuel. See for example:

Zanzi, Rolando, Krister Sjöström, and Emilia Björnbom. “Rapid pyrolysis of agricultural residues at high temperature.” Biomass and Bioenergy 23.5 (2002): 357-366.

Demirbas, Ayhan. “Effects of temperature and particle size on bio-char yield from pyrolysis of agricultural residues.” Journal of analytical and applied pyrolysis 72.2 (2004): 243-248.

Yanik, Jale, et al. “Fast pyrolysis of agricultural wastes: Characterization of pyrolysis products.” Fuel Processing Technology 88.10 (2007): 942-947.

Berruti, Franco, Cedric Briens, and Ronald Golden. “Apparatus and process for the pyrolysis of agricultural biomass.” U.S. Patent No. 7,943,014. 17 May 2011.

A typical study is Zanzi etal 2002 where they find: “This paper deals with rapid pyrolysis of agricultural residues such as olive waste and straw at high temperature (800–1000°C) in a free-fall reactor at pilot scale. The conditions are of interest for gasification in fluidized beds where rapid pyrolysis plays an important role as first stage. The objective of the work is to study the effect of the process conditions such as heating rate, temperature and particle size on the product distribution, gas composition and char reactivity. A higher temperature and smaller particles increase the heating rate resulting in a decreased char yield. The cracking of the hydrocarbons with an increase in the hydrogen content is favoured by a higher temperature and by using smaller particles. Wood gives more volatiles and less char than straw and olive waste. The higher ash content in agricultural residues favours the charring reactions. The higher lignin content in olive waste results in a higher char yield in comparison with straw. Chars from olive waste and straw are more reactive in gasification than chars from birch because of the higher ash content.”

Food waste to biochars through pyrolysis: A review - ScienceDirect

The smart Indian chemical engineer Mr. Vidyut Mohan identified the utility of pyrolysis of agricultural waste as a way of saving New Delhi from the annual post harvest pollution event created by farmers in surrounding areas burning their agricultural waste. His amazing innovation was to buy agricultural waste from the farmers and then to use pyrolysis to convert agricultural waste into biochar that can be sold back to the farmers as fertilizer.

Delhi air pollution: No relief from thick smog as AQI hovers around  500-mark on the last day of odd-even rule

This innovation saves New Delhi from the annual post harvest pollution event but it has nothing to do with climate change. Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) and climate change is not a theory about how nature’s carbon cycle changes the climate. It is very specifically a theory about the impact of the industrial economy’s fossil fuel emissions as a perturbation of nature’s delicately balanced carbon cycle that causes atmospheric CO2 to rise and this rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration is thought to be the driver the observed warming since the end of the Little Ice Age.

The celebration of this innovation by the United Nations (UN) and by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) as a climate action innovation that will attenuate the rate of warming and save the planet {LINK: https://www.unenvironment.org/youngchampions/bio/2020/asia-and-pacific/vidyut-mohan } is inconsistent with the theory of AGW as explained by NASA climate scientist Dr. Peter Griffith in a related post on this site LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/06/19/vegandiet/ . What Dr Griffith explains there is an important feature of AGW climate change theory that is not well understood and/or often overlooked in the consideration of climate action policies. Anthropogenic global warming is specific to the impact of the industrial economy that dug up fossil fuels loaded with carbon from carbon cycles that are millions of years old. This is EXTERNAL CARBON. It is not part of the current account of the carbon cycle.

The essence of the theory of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is that external carbon from very old carbon cycles in fossil fuel emissions cause warming by increasing atmospheric CO2 levels and that therefore the amount of warming can be attenuated by reducing fossil fuel emissions (Hansen, 1981) (Meinshausen, 2009) (Stocker, 2013) (Callendar, 1938) (Lacis, 2010) (Hansen, 2016) (IPCC, 2000) (IPCC, 2014). At the root of the proposed AGW causation chain is the ability of fossil fuel emissions to cause measurable changes in atmospheric CO2 levels in excess of natural variability because very old external carbon in fossil fuel emissions is a perturbation of the current account of the carbon cycle. This important detail has been overlooked by the UN and by the UNEP in their evaluation of the Indian pyrolysis innovation to save New Delhi from the annual harvest pollution event. The theory of anthropogenic global warming is specific to the industrial revolution and the industrial economy in terms of the combustion of fossil fuels.

An important feature of the carbon cycle is that the CO2 removed from the atmosphere by plant photosynthesis is returned to the atmosphere when the plant dies (or by animal respiration when the plant or its fruit is eaten). In the case of the New Delhi pollution issue, the return may have been hastened by burning agricultural waste instead of letting it rot on the ground but the issue there is not climate change but pollution. Another factor overlooked by the UN and the UNEP is that the biochar produced by pyrolysis of agricultural waste is not sequestered from the carbon cycle but put back into the soil where it acts as a fertilizer such that the biochar carbon eventually ends up back in the atmosphere but without the annual harvest pollution in New Delhi.

We conclude from this analysis that the smart Indian chemical engineer who came up with the pyrolysis idea to save New Delhi from pollution deserves to be recognized for this achievement but that the further interpretation of this event in terms of climate change by the UN and UNEP exposes a weakness in their understanding of an issue that plays an important role in their function as global climate action coordinator.

More about the UN: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/03/18/the-eco-crisis-ambition-of-the-un/

FIGUERES
Can Guterres Turn the U.N.'s Bureaucrats Into Heroes?

AN UNCONSTRAINED BUREAUCRACY | Thongchai Thailand

IPCC report points out the benefits of a tax shift | United by Tax

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF AN ONLINE ARTICLE BY BELIEVE EARTH ON CLIMATE ACTION TO STAY BELOW 1.5C OF WARMING SINCE PRE-INDUSTRIAL. LINK: https://believe.earth/en/what-needs-to-happen-in-order-to-limit-global-warming-to-1-5c/

The Carbon Budget Conundrum | Thongchai Thailand

PART-1: WHAT THE BELIEVE EARTH ARTICLE SAYS

What needs to happen in order to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
CLIMAINFO
analyzed what each carbon-polluting sector must do in order to reach this goal. When the governments of nearly every country in the world signed the Paris Agreement in defense of our planet’s climate in 2015, they requested an analysis from the scientists at the IPCC of the impacts humanity would suffer if global warming were to reach 1.5ºC, as well as an analysis of how humanity could keep global warming below this level. Well, the thousands of scientists around the world that make up the IPCC have now weighed in. They delivered their analysis in October of 2018, in a special report that tries to answer the following questions: What will be the impact of a rise in temperatures of 1.5ºC and 2ºC? What is needed to limit the rise in temperatures to 1.5ºC? And what are the trade-offs with the UN Sustainable Development Goals? Here we have tried to summarize the actions that each economic sector needs to take in order to keep global warming below 1.5ºC. This is a guide to understanding the 2018 IPCC special.

HOW BIG IS OUR CHALLENGE? The IPCC scientists developed different scenarios for future levels of greenhouse gas emissions year by year, which they called “trajectories.” In the trajectories compatible with a temperature rise of 1.5ºC, the world must become carbon neutral by the middle of the century. In other words, in these scenarios, humanity must stop adding carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere by 2050. This would require an unprecedented cut in CO2 emissions, as well as in emissions of other greenhouse gases. A weak or slow response could allow the rise in global temperatures to exceed 1.5ºC. We would then depend more and more on technologies capable of extracting CO2 from the atmosphere (which are still risky, unproven, and often very costly) in order to lower the planet’s temperatures. If no additional action is taken, global warming will have already reached 1.5ºC by around 2040. Keeping within the 1.5ºC goal requires fast and significant reductions from every sector responsible for greenhouse gas emissions. Below, we list a series of measures that can help reach this goal, grouped together by sector: energy production, land use, industry, transportation, and construction. In the final section we also list some possible ways to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. It is important to note that all sectors have choices regarding how they will reduce their emissions and by how much, but the decisions made by each sector will influence the others. On an individual level, every one of us will have to change our habits to help limit global warming to 1.5ºC. How? By changing our diets to reduce meat consumption, reducing food waste, driving less and using more public transportation, using more efficient appliances and installing better insulation systems to depend less on air conditioning in hot regions and heating in cold regions. But it is important to remember that these behavioral changes, although important, are not enough on their own. The entire economy must change.

STAY COOL, EVERYONE! Sector by sector, we can heed the IPCC warnings, limiting global warming to 34.7°F and becoming carbon neutral by 2050 1. ENERGY: responsible for 35 percent of global emissions SOLUTIONS Replace fossil fuels with clean sources of energy worldwide Quit using charcoal by 2040. Reduce the use of natural gas to a minimum by 2100. Quit using oil over the course of the century. GLOBAL ACHIEVEMENTS SO FAR Since 2010, 1,705 coal-fired power plant projects have been canceled. The first country to commit to giving up coal was the United Kingdom. By 2016, 24 percent of the world’s electricity came from renewable sources. Total decarbonisation of electricity is projected by 2050. The largest investors in renewables are China, the United States, Germany, Japan, Spain, the United Kingdom, France, India and Brazil. 2. USE OF LAND: responsible for 24 percent of global emissions SOLUTIONS Protect ecosystems and increase the sustainability and efficiency of agriculture Use residues from agriculture and forestry to generate energy through biomass. Fight food waste, the fate of 1/3 of all food produced in the world. Encourage people to eat less meat: reducing consumption to 50g per day reduces individual emissions by up to 35 percent.

GLOBAL ACHIEVEMENTS SO FAR: In 1943, 77 percent of Costa Rica was covered by forest; in 1986, this number dropped to 41 percent. In 2012, the recovery process began, and today, 52 percent of the country is covered. The Bonn Challenge is a global effort, launched in 2011, to restore 150 million hectares of deforested land by 2020, and 350 million by 2030. It has already led to significant reforestation and job creation in Pakistan, Mexico, Rwanda and many other countries. 3. INDUSTRY: responsible for 21 percent of global emissions SOLUTIONS Move to clean energy and decrease the waste of materials Cut emissions from industrial processes by installing carbon capture and storage systems. Increase the efficiency of companies, with products of greater durability, and reduce the loss of materials in the production process. Use less material and increase the industry’s recycling and “remanufacturing” capacities. GLOBAL ACHIEVEMENTS SO FAR Due in part to industry changes and the declining use of coal, emissions in China declined each year from 2014-2016. Senegal’s largest cement manufacturer has partially replaced coal with biomass, avoiding the emission of over 59,000 tons of CO2 per year. Today, recycled scrap accounts for 64 percent of European steel consumption. Since 1945, Volvo, the Swedish automaker, has been remanufacturing components: in 2015 alone, this practice prevented the production of more than 859 tons of steel and more than 330 tons of aluminum.

TRANSPORTATION: responsible for 14 percent of global emissions SOLUTIONS Improve supply chains and encourage clean transportation Democratize the use of electric cars: If 70 percent of vehicles are electric by 2050, global CO2 emissions will be reduced to 3.6 billion tons (8 percent of current emissions). Develop electricity technology, biofuels, hydrogen and more efficient batteries for heavy commercial vehicles. Plan cities with density, bike paths, pedestrian paths and mass transit, an approach which can reduce car use by up to 40 percent (Urban Land Institute).

GLOBAL ACHIEVEMENTS SO FAR 15 countries announced plans to end the sale of diesel and gasoline cars between 2030 and 2040. Among them are Austria, China, Finland, France, Germany, India, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, Scotland, Slovenia, Sri Lanka, Sweden, United Kingdom The annual sale of electric vehicles is increasing dramatically and is expected to reach 11 million by 2025 and 30 million by 2030. In Europe, in the first half of 2018, electric cars sales increased by more than 40 percent, and there are now more than one million such vehicles on the roads. Today, thanks to generous tax breaks, subsidies and toll exemptions, plug-in electric cars make up 55 percent of new cars sold in Norway. The city of Portland, Oregon has integrated urban planning and transportation, emphasizing population density and mixed-use development in the vicinity of the public transit system.

CONSTRUCTION: responsible for 6 percent of global emissions SOLUTIONS Make buildings more efficient Set higher efficiency standards, especially for air conditioning and heating. Modernize apartment or office buildings, generating energy consumption savings of between 75-90 percent. Improve energy efficiency rules for household appliances.

GLOBAL ACHIEVEMENTS SO FAR With strict rules on energy consumption, homes built in Denmark after 2008 use half the energy of those built before 1977. In Cape Town, South Africa, more than 2,300 homes for low-income families were built with solar water heaters, efficient light bulbs and thermal insulation, avoiding the emission of more than 7,700 tons of CO2 per year. SOURCE: All data can be found in the ClimaInfo report, “What needs to be done in each sector to limit global warming to 34.7°F (1.5°C).”

WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE IN ENERGY PRODUCTION The energy sector – the set of economic activities that extracts resources like oil, natural gas and coal, generates electricity, produces fuels such as gasoline, diesel and ethanol, and transports energy to where it is used – is responsible for approximately 35% of global greenhouse gas emissions, making it the most carbon-polluting sector. Cutting down on these emissions quickly is essential if we are to reach the 1.5ºC goal. Since other sectors will need to use more electricity to substitute for fossil fuels like oil, coal and gas, it is important that the electricity supply comes from sources with low CO2 emissions (often referred to as “low carbon”). This will require cuts in fossil fuel use and an increase in the use of low carbon sources of energy. Reductions in energy use: In order to limit global warming to 1.5ºC, fossil fuel use must be drastically reduced. This is especially true for coal, which must be essentially abandoned by around 2040 [4]. But the use of oil must also decrease over the course of the century. And the use of natural gas must also be low by 2100, although in some of the IPCC’s trajectories it must be reduced immediately. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) – a set of technologies that tries to capture the gases produced by burning fossil fuels and store them in rocks – could, in theory, allow us to use gas and coal for a longer period of time without exceeding the 1.5ºC threshold. But attempts to develop these technologies have faced challenges. Worldwide, at least 32 projects for coal thermal plants with CO2 capture and storage have been cancelled or suspended, and only two are currently in operation.

Reaching the 1.5ºC goal will be much easier, cheaper and less disruptive if governments around the world take immediate steps to replace fossil fuels with clean sources of energy. Continuing investment in thermal plants that run on fossil fuels will result in deeper and more drastic cuts in the future. This will be harder to do and will lead to “stranded assets,” such as coal and gas plants that can no longer operate – leaving investors no longer able to generate the revenues necessary to cover their costs and get any kind of return. Hope comes in the form of initiatives like the Powering Past Coal Alliance [6], founded in 2017 by 21 countries, states, companies and cities committed to ending the use of traditional coal plants. The Alliance had already expanded to 74 members by September of 2018, including 29 countries, with significant participation by U.S. states, cities and businesses opposed to the Trump administration’s rhetoric in support of coal. Since 2010, 1,705 coal power plant projects have been cancelled worldwide. [7] The first country to commit to a gradual and total abandonment of coal was the United Kingdom in 2015. Since then, the proportion of electricity generated by coal in the UK has declined rapidly, and coal supplied less than 7% of that country’s electricity in 2017. [8]

The growth of low carbon energy Low carbon energy, which includes sources like solar, wind, biomass, nuclear, hydro and geothermal, must increase quickly to fill the void left by the reduction in fossil fuel use and, most likely, meet the increasing demand for electricity that will help the world stay within the 1.5ºC limit. There are many ways in which low carbon sources can come to supply the world’s energy needs. Most trajectories suggest that solar and biomass energy will expand rapidly and become some of the most important sources. There is less certainty about how much nuclear energy will be necessary – with some trajectories suggesting it will be an important source, while others suggest it will not be needed. According to one recent scientific journal article, electricity generated by wind and solar would have to keep up their recent growth rates (between 25% and 30%) until 2025. After that, the growth of these renewables could slow to between 4% and 5%, which would still keep us on track for a complete decarbonization of global electricity by around 2050. This transition is already well under way: in 2016, 24% of global electricity was already produced by renewable sources [11], making them the second largest source of electricity after coal [12]. In 2016, the world had 32 times more solar capacity and five times more wind capacity than it did in 2007. The cost of solar and wind energy are falling rapidly. Between 2010 and 2017, the cost of producing wind energy on land fell by 25%, while the cost to produce solar energy on a large scale fell by 73%.

The cost of these renewable sources is competitive with coal. The average cost of coal electricity in 2017 was between $50 and $73 per MWh. Meanwhile, the global average cost of wind power on land was around $67/MWh, and between $56 and $86/MWh for photovoltaic solar power [15]. By the end of 2017, the lowest prices for solar and wind energy were $21/MWh and $19/MWh, respectively, both in Mexico [16]. It is likely that within the next 15 years it will be cheaper to build new solar or wind plants than to keep using the gas plants already in existence [17]. To give investors confidence in the transition to clean energy, support from governments will be important. The government of India, for example, has set a goal of installing 175 GW of renewable capacity by 2022 [18]. In the past year India has invested more in renewable energy than it has in fossil fuels, having more than doubled its investment in solar power, and investing record amounts in onshore wind power. Electricity storage will also be crucial to the success of the energy transition. Since some renewable sources – like wind and solar – are intermittent, the ability to store the electricity they generate may ensure that supply can always meet demand. Storage technology is developing and expanding at a rapid pace. And decreasing costs, the need to control air quality, pollution regulations, and climate policies will probably continue to fuel its expansion.

<<< THE SOURCE TEXT CONTINUES WITH LAND USE AND OTHER NON FOSSIL FUEL CLIMATE ACTION ITEMS THAT CAN BE FOUND IN THE SOURCE DOCUMENT AFTER THE SUB TITLE “LAND USE”: LINK: https://believe.earth/en/what-needs-to-happen-in-order-to-limit-global-warming-to-1-5c/ >>>

10 Things to Know About the IPCC Scenario Framework | weADAPT | Climate  change adaptation planning, research and practice

PART-2: CRITICAL COMMENTRY

  1. On the matter of the IPCC 2018 special report that determined that warming since pre-industrial must not be allowed to exceed 1.5C to avoid runaway feedback warming beyond human control. Prior to the 2018 determination by the IPCC that the critical amount of warming since pre-industrial is 1.5C, the same IPCC had determined that the critical amount of warming was 2C and the 2C estimate followed prior estimate of 3C and that came after the estimate of 4C which in turn had come after the initial IPCC estimate of 5C. Given this extreme form of uncertainty in IPCC assessments the degree of certainty and credibility needed to demand a multi trillion dollar global response to overhaul their energy infrastructure is not possible or even rational. The mean and standard deviation of these 5 different estimates of the critical amount of warming imply a 95% confidence interval of 0.54C to 5.66C. This kind of data does not contain useful information and therefore no demand can be made for a global energy infrastructure overhaul based on these IPCC assessments. The data do not indicate that the IPCC is credible.
  2. A related issue in this estimate is that all of these values for the critical amount of warming from 5C to 1.5C are computed from the “pre-industrial” reference temperature but no estimate is given for a pre-industrial reference temperature. A possible reason for this is that there is no estimate for a pre-industrial temperature because the IPCC does not really know when that was. The first IPCC report identifies this critical pre-industrial year as the year 1750. However, in the very next report, the pre-industrial year is moved up 100 years to 1850. At the same time, NASA GISS has made an independent assessment of the pre-industrial year from the data to determine that the reference pre-industrial year from which the amount of warming should be measured is 1950, one hundred years after the most recent IPCC pre-industrial year assessment. Given the variance of these assessments, the 95% confidence interval for the pre-industrial year is 1650 to 2050. This range does not indicate that the IPCC has sufficient information on this issue to demand immense global economic sacrifices based on their climate change assessments.
  3. As serious as items #1 and #2 above are, the most egregious evidence of absence of information the IPCC climate action demands is the mathematics used in the construction of the relationship between emissions and warming that serve as a basis for the climate action demanded. This relationship, shown graphically in the chart below, serves as the theoretical basis in the demand for climate action for a given target amount of warming. It is based on the observation of a near perfect correlation between temperature and cumulative emissions that can also be described as a correlation between cumulative annual warming and cumulative emissions. It is called the TCRE.
The Carbon Budget Conundrum | Thongchai Thailand

The statistical and mathematical flaws in the TCRE are described in a related post on this site: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/12/11/climate-action-101-the-carbon-budget/ . Briefly, we show in the related post that a time series of the cumulative values of another time series contains neither time scale nor degrees of freedom and that therefore the correlation between two such time series has no interpretation in terms of the real world phenomena represented by the original time series from which the cumulative values were computed. Therefore the TCRE and carbon budgets constructed from it have no interpretation in terms of the real world phenomena represented by the data from which the TCRE was computed.

MATHEMATICAL INCONSISTENCY: A second, and equally egregious mathematics error in these carbon budget constructions of the IPCC is that the theoretical relationship between cumulative emissions and temperature in climate science is logarithmic because temperature is responsive to the logarithm of atmospheric CO2 concentration; but the same relationship in TCRE carbon budgets is represented as linear. These mathematical errors and inconsistencies make it impossible to relate the IPCC carbon budget construction shown in the image above to the theory of anthropogenic global warming. Details of this mathematical inconsistency in carbon budgets are provided in a related post on this site: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/08/26/a-mathematical-inconsistency/

Tip of the Week: What's with all the inconsistency? | Change ...

UN Experts Warn of 'Climate Catastrophe' by 2040 Without 'Rapid' and ' Unprecedented' Global Action | Common Dreams News
IPCC WARNS OF CLIMATE CATASTROPHE

IPCC warns that "unprecedented changes in all aspects of society" are  needed to combat global warming

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION: THE CREDIBILITY OF THE VERY DETAILED, IMPRESSIVE, AND EMOTIONAL CLIMATE ACTION PLANS DESCRIBED SO FERVENTLY IN THE BELIEVE EARTH ARTICLE IS UNDONE BY UNCERTAINTIES AND STATISTICAL ERRORS IN THE SOURCE DATA PROVIDED BY THE IPCC AND BY CLIMATE SCIENCE. THIS ANOMALY IN THE CLIMATE MOVEMENT SERVES AS AN EXAMPLE OF SINCERE SUPPORT FROM HONEST AND WELL MEANING ENVIRONMENTALISTS FOR A CAUSE PLAGUED WITH METHODOLIGICAL AND STATISTICAL ERRORS OF WHICH THE SINCERE ENVIRONMENTALISTS ARE UNAWARE. CLIMATE SCIENCE HAS MISUSED AND ABUSED REAL ENVIRONMENTALISM.

THE TYRANNY OF EXPERTS

Books The Tyranny of Experts: Economists, Dictators, and the Forgotten  Rights of the Poor Free - video dailymotion

Stop Child Abuse Image & Photo (Free Trial) | Bigstock

The Apocalypse as an 'Unveiling': What Religion Teaches Us About the End  Times - The New York Times

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF AN ONLINE ARTICLE BY THE CONVERSATION THAT A CO2 GREENHOUSE HORROR KILLED VENUS AND THAT IS THE FATE OF OUR PLANET IF WE CONTINUE TO USE FOSSIL FUELS. LINK TO SOURCE: https://theconversation.com/venus-was-once-more-earth-like-but-climate-change-made-it-uninhabitable-150445

The 'End of the World' Is Today. Here's Why We're Still Here | Live Science

PART-1: WHAT THE SOURCE ARTICLE SAYS

We can learn a lot about climate change from Venus, our sister planet. Venus currently has a surface temperature of 450℃ (the temperature of an oven’s self-cleaning cycle) and an atmosphere with 96% CO2 with a density 90 times that of Earth’s. Venus is a very strange place, totally uninhabitable, except perhaps in the clouds some 60 kilometers up where the recent discovery of phosphine may suggest floating microbial life. But the surface is totally inhospitable.

However, Venus once a lot like our earth with an Earth-like climate. According to recent climate modelling, for much of its history Venus had surface temperatures similar to present day Earth. It likely also had oceans, rain, perhaps snow, maybe continents and plate tectonics, and even more speculatively, perhaps even surface life.

Less than one billion years ago, the climate dramatically changed due to a runaway greenhouse effect. It can be speculated that an intensive period of volcanism pumped enough carbon dioxide into the atmosphere to cause this great climate change event that evaporated the oceans and caused the end of the water cycle.

This hypothesis from the climate modellers inspired Sara Khawja, a master’s student in my group (co-supervised with geoscientist Claire Samson), to look for evidence in Venusian rocks for this proposed climatic change event. Since the early 1990s, my Carleton University research team — and more recently my Siberian team at Tomsk State University — have been mapping and interpreting the geological and tectonic history of Earth’s remarkable sister planet Venus.

Soviet Venera and Vega missions of the 1970s and 1980s landed on Venus and took pictures and evaluated the composition of the rocks, before the landers failed due to the high temperature and pressure. However, our most comprehensive view of the surface of Venus has been provided by NASA’s Magellan spacecraft in the early 1990s, which used radar to see through the dense cloud layer and produce detailed images of more than 98 per cent of Venus’s surface.

Our search for geological evidence of the great climate change event led us to focus on the oldest type of rocks on Venus, called tesserae, which have a complex appearance suggestive of a long, complicated geological history. We thought that these oldest rocks had the best chance of preserving evidence of water erosion, which is a such an important process on Earth and should have occurred on Venus prior to the great climate change event. Given poor resolution altitude data, we used an indirect technique to try to recognize ancient river valleys. We demonstrated that younger lava flows from the surrounding volcanic plains had filled valleys in the margins of tesserae.. To our astonishment these tesserae valley patterns were very similar to river flow patterns on Earth, leading to our suggestion that these tesserae valleys were formed by river erosion during a time with Earth-like climatic conditions. My Venus research groups at Carleton and Tomsk State universities are studying the post-tesserae lava flows for any geological evidence of the transition to extremely hot conditions.

NASA announces Venus rover challenge winners | Human World | EarthSky

EARTH ANALOGIES: In order to understand how volcanism on Venus could produce such a change in climate, we can look to Earth history for analogues. We can find analogies in super-eruptions like the last eruption at Yellowstone that occurred 630,000 years. But such volcanism is small compared to large igneous provinces, LIP, that occur approximately every 20-30 million years. These eruption events can release enough carbon dioxide to cause catastrophic climate change on Earth, including mass extinctions. To give you a sense of scale, consider that the smallest LIPs produce enough magma to cover all of Canada to a depth of about 10 metres. The largest known LIP produced enough magma that would have covered an area the size of Canada to a depth of nearly eight km. The LIP analogues on Venus include individual volcanoes that are up to 500 km across, extensive lava channels that reach up to 7,000 km long, and there are also associated rift systems — where the crust is pulling apart — up to 10,000 km long.

If LIP-style volcanism was the cause of the great climate change event on Venus, then could similar climate change happen on Earth?

We can imagine a scenario many millions of years in the future when multiple LIPs randomly occurring at the same time could cause Earth to have such runaway climate change leading to conditions like present-day Venus.

Carl Sagan GIF - Carl Sagan Billions - Discover & Share GIFs

PART-2: CRITICAL COMMENTARYLarge Igneous Province:

(1) LIP is a form of near surface magmatism that can cause significant changes to the surface of the planets including Earth and Venus but this mechanism of planetary surface changes is rare and episodic at million year time scales and it does not account for a significant fraction of the geological magmatic CO2 transfer to the atmosphere. Most of that comes from more frequent geological magmatic transfers in the more mundane geology of seafloor spreading, mantle plumes, and volcanism. The LIP mechanism, though dramatic when they do occur, account for no more than 10% of the geological transfers from the mantle at billion year time scales. The argument that the greater CO2 release of LIP events explains the fate of Venus is inconsistent with the role of LIP in the overall CO2 transfers from the mantle to the atmosphere at the relevant time scales.

(2) Geological CO2: The geological source of CO2 as a driver of climate change inserted into the climate change dialog by The Conversation has interesting implications noted in related posts on this site linked below. There we show that the climate science assumption that observed changes in atmospheric CO2 must be understood in terms of fossil fuel emissions is inconsistent with the data. The statistical analysis of the data presented in LINK#2 shows that atmospheric composition is not responsive to fossil fuel emissions and implies that the observed rise in atmospheric CO2 may have an explanation in terms of geological sources of such emissions. The claim by climate science that the absence of carbon isotopes in atmospheric CO2 proves its fossil fuel source is not responsive to the argument for geological sources because geological carbon, like fossil fuel emissions, has no 14C or 13C isotopes.

LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/08/27/carbonflows/

LINK#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/21/the-case-against-fossil-fuels/

LINK#3: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/02/10/14c/

LINK#4: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/04/28/13c/

2

(3) TIME SCALE: The current era of warming is one of many warming and cooling cycles at millennial and centennial time scales found in the 8,000-year history of the Holocene described in a related post: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/06/11/chaoticholocene/ where climate science, claiming to know the science of Holocene temperature cycles has selected only the current warming period to explain. This kind of empirical research suffers from a data selection bias as noted in a related post: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/10/09/a-data-selection-bias/ where we note that {IF THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2 EXPLAINS THESE HOLOCENE TEMPERATURE DYNAMICS, IT SHOULD EXPLAIN ALL OF THE WARMING AND COOLING CYCLES AND NOT JUST ONE OF THEM}. But the greater issue here in the context of the Conversation article’s comparison with Venus is time scale.

Whereas, the current warming period, and in fact all of the Holocene temperature departure cycles, are understood at millennial and centennial time scales, the claim that the death of Venus caused by climate change at time scales of “billions and billions of years” has some correspondence to and provides an understanding of the current warm period and the future of the planet earth implied by the current warm period, is not credible. This is because the Venus story has no relevance to AGW because the time scales of the two events being compared do not match.

Carl-Sagan-billions - John Tebeau

Oceans Are Warming Up Much Faster Than Previously Thought - Yale E360

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF AN ARTICLE IN THE REVELATOR ON “EARTH’S WARMING OCEANS” LINK TO SOURCE ARTICLE: https://therevelator.org/ocean-climate-change/

ocean warming graphic

PART-1: WHAT THE SOURCE ARTICLE SAYS

Climate change has caused record-breaking ocean temperatures, and that means more dangerous storms, trouble for coral reefs and big changes for our marine ecosystems. Part of Joellen Russell’s job is to help illuminate the deep darkness — to shine a light on what’s happening beneath the surface of the ocean. And it’s one of the most important jobs in the world right now. Russell is a professor of biogeochemical dynamics at the University of Arizona. From that dry, landlocked state, she’s become a leading expert on how the climate is changing in the Southern Ocean — those vast, dark waters swirling around Antarctica. “This is an age of scientific discovery,” she says. But also, “it’s very scary what we’re finding out.”

Joellen | Leadership Programs
Joellen Russell

Researchers like Russell have been ringing alarm bells in report after report warning that the world’s ocean waters are dangerously warming. Most of the heat trapped by the greenhouse gas emissions we’ve spewed into the air for decades has actually been absorbed by the ocean. Over the past 25 years, that heat amounts to the equivalent of exploding 3.6 billion Hiroshima-sized atom bombs, according to Lijing Cheng of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and lead author of a new study on ocean warming. Now we’re beginning to witness the cascading repercussions of that oceanic warming — from supercharged storms to dying coral reefs to crashing fisheries.

There’s still a lot left to learn about these problems, but here’s a look at some of the top findings from researchers, along with what they hope to uncover next. (1) Yes, It’s Definitely Getting Warmer
There’s no doubt among scientists that the ocean is heating and we’re driving it. Ocean heating is irrefutable and a key measure of the Earth’s energy imbalance. (2) Ocean waters in 2019 were the warmest in recorded history. And that follows a pattern: The past decade has also seen the warmest 10 years of ocean temperatures, and the last five years have been the five warmest on record. Every year the ocean waters get warmer, and the reason is that the heat-trapping gases that humans have emitted into the atmosphere,” says John Abraham, the study’s coauthor and professor in mechanical engineering at the University of St. Thomas. “It’s concerning for sure.” (3) The Southern Ocean Has Been Hit Worst. Much of this warming occurs between the surface and a depth of 6,500 feet. It’s happening pretty consistently across the globe, but some areas have experienced higher rates of warming. One of those is the Southern Ocean, which has acted as a giant sink, absorbing 43% of our oceanic CO2 emissions and 75% of the heat. (4) That’s because the ocean basin functions like an air conditioner for the planet. Strong winds pull up cold water from deep below, and then the cold surface water takes up some heat from the air. When the winds slow, the water sinks, more cold water rises, and the process repeats. The sinking water isn’t warm, per se, just a bit warmer than it was when the wind pulled it up. In this way the Southern Ocean can sequester a lot of heat well below the surface. For that reason what happens in the Southern Ocean is globally important. And it makes new findings all the more concerning. (5) Antarctic Waterfall. Normal upwelling of waters from deep in the Southern Ocean has traditionally brought nutrients to the surface, where they then get moved by the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, the world’s strongest ocean current, to feed marine life in other areas. But new research shows that this process will be disrupted as warm waters cause the Southern Ocean’s ice sheets to melt even faster. This will change the historical upwelling and could trap nutrients instead of pushing them out. That will begin to starve the global ocean of nutrients. (6) One of the most obvious results of ocean warming is higher sea levels. That’s caused in part because water expands as it warms and also because of the effect on sea ice. The warmer the water gets, the more sea ice melts as is happening in Antarctica. Not surprisingly rates of global sea-level rise are accelerating. This means more property damage, storm surges, and waves lapping at the heels of our coastal communities. (7) Warmer waters also mean more supercharged storms. An increase in heat drives up evaporation and adds extra moisture to the atmosphere, causing heavy rains, more flooding and more extreme weather events as seen in the aftermath of Cyclone Idai, one of the deadliest storms in history, in Mozambique, March 2019. In some places it can make drier conditions worse, too. When air rises and cools below the dew point, it turns into clouds or precipitation but in places like Arizona or Australia, where rain is generally formed when air is pushed upward over mountains, the warmer atmosphere might not be cold enough to cause rain so that a warmer atmosphere carrying more moisture might actually rain less and contribute to drought and wildfires. (8) The warming ocean is one of the key reasons why the Earth has experienced increasing catastrophic fires in the Amazon, California, and Australia in 2019 and 2020. (9) Warming ocean waters contribute to the rise of colonies of algae that can produce toxins deadly to wildlife and sometimes people. These harmful algal blooms pose a problem even way up in the Gulf of Alaska, where the annual algae season has gotten longer due to warmer water. Algal blooms are seen along the coast of the Bering Sea where water temperatures have historically been too cold for the blooms to occur. Now the water temperatures are warm enough to create harmful algal blooms. Toxins from the blooms can even show up in some marine mammals. (10) Marine Heat Waves are getting worse as the ocean warms. These heatwaves, which can be fatal to sea creatures, will continue to get more severe and more frequent as the ocean warms. By the end of the century, some areas may be in a permanent heatwave. That’s likely to be bad news for everything from seaweed to birds to mammals, and it could result in fundamental changes for food webs and the animals and coastal economies that depend on those resources. (11) Ocean warming may lead to irreversible loss of species or foundation habitats, such as seagrass, coral reefs and kelp forests. These changes likely aren’t far off. Marine heatwaves will emerge as forceful agents of disturbance to marine ecosystems in the near-future. We’re already seeing what that would look like. Marine heatwaves off Australia have spurred oyster die-offs and losses to the abalone fishery, and bleaching of the biodiverse Great Barrier Reef, triggering mass coral deaths. (12) The Blob, a mass of warm water that persisted off the Pacific Coast from California to Alaska from 2014 to 2016, led to the starvation of an estimated 1 million common murres a normally resilient seabird. The warm waters likely reduced and changed phytoplankton communities, an essential part of the marine food web. The warm waters of the Blob also increased the metabolism and the appetite of big fish like pollock and salmon. That demand spike crashed populations of forage fish that murres usually find plentiful. Tufted puffins, Cassin’s auklets, sea lions and baleen whales also suffered losses, although the murres were hit worst. A prolonged marine heatwave off the coast of Alaska led to the closure of region’s commercial Pacific cod fishery for 2020, the first time that’s ever happened. When you cancel whole fisheries, that really impacts people’s lives and livelihoods. (13) What We Don’t Know: We don’t know how warming will affect myriad species in the sea, the weather patterns, and coastal economies. One current line of research is to better understand how ocean warming affects weather. We know that a warmer ocean means more water evaporates into the atmosphere and makes the weather more severe because humidity drives storms but we don’t know how bad that will be.

mhw-gif
MARINE HEAT WAVES
MHW-SST-GIF
SST TRENDS

PART-2: CRITICAL COMMENTARY

{NOTE: This section refers to “RELATED POSTS” on this site. The links to these posts are listed below. It also refers to a bibliography on the subject of ocean heating. The bibliography appears below the list of related posts.}

In related post RP#1 we show observed complex temperature patterns and trends in the data for ocean heat content are not consistent with a uniform atmospheric source for the heat. Specifically we find certain peculiarities of the Pacific and of the differences between the hemispheres. In the case of the Pacific the steady and sustained upward trend in OHC at 2000M is not found in the 700M data where no trend is evident until the 1990’s. This pattern is not consistent with an atmospheric source of the heat that is causing ocean warming. We also note that the sustained warming at a steady rate seen at 2000M is not found in the data for 700 meters where we see violent and unsynchronized swings of cooling and warming periods with North cooling while the South warms and vice versa. This disconnect between North and South and between the deep and shallow notwithstanding, the data still indicate rising Ocean Heat Content (OHC) for both the Northern and Southern segments in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. But a very different pattern is seen in the Indian Ocean where the whole of the gain in OHC at either depth derives from warming in the South with no trend seen in the OHC of the North. The non-uniformity patterns in the data for the warming of the ocean implies that the ocean itself must play the major if not exclusive role in creating ocean heat content. The interpretation of ocean heat content exclusively in the context of the atmospheric science is not credible under these circumstances. The data suggest that the ocean’s own vast sources of heat must also be taken into consideration for an unbiased understanding of of ocean heat content. The relevant bibliography provided below provides additional support for this view. Significant evidence is presented in these papers for a significant if not overwhelming role for the ocean itself in the creation of ocean heat content. Moreover, the observed patterns and dynamics in the ocean heat content data are more consistent with oceanic sources of heat than with an atmospheric source.

In related post RP#2 we present the data for marine heat waves (MHW) along with long term SST trends. Although SST is fairly uniform at any given time out in the open sea, anomalous SST is seen in ENSO events at specific locations where ENSO SST anomalies are known to occur; and similarly in the Indian Ocean Dipole. In addition to those SST anomalies in the open sea, MHW SST anomalies are also found in shallow waters near land and along continental shelves. These SST anomalies are thought to be related to shallowness and proximity to land as seen in the bibliography below. In these SST anomalies there can be significant departures from the mean ocean SST in both directions – hotter than average (marine heat wave or MHW) and colder than average (marine cold wave (MCW). See for example, Schlegel (2017) in the bibliography below. The warmer than average anomalous SST “hotspots” can persist and hang around for days and even weeks. As a rule, these SST anomalies are classified as MHW only if they persist for at least 5 days. It is generally agreed that since these anomalies tend to occur in proximity to land that proximity to land may be a factor in the creation of these anomalies. Another location oddity of the MHW is that their location is not random but that they tend to be found in the same location over and over. The video display of MHW above shows their location and intensity over time. MHW locations are marked with color coded markers from yellow through orange, red, dark red, brown, and black. Intensity is proportional to the darkness of the color code of the MHW location – the darker the more intense. These data do not include cold waves. As the video steps through time one month at a time we find that hardly any MWH lasts longer than a month except for those in the extreme North-East of Canada and in Northwest Greenland where a small cluster of MHW appears to persist for longer time periods. Also in the video, we see that the MHW locations month to month are not random but that MHW tends to recur in the same location over and over and at similar intensities. This behavior may imply that MHW is location specific. An apparent oddity of the spatial pattern of MHW events in this video is that most MHW SST anomalies tend to occur in polar regions both north and south. This pattern is stronger in the more intense SST anomalies.
We find in this video and in the bibliography below, that locations of SST anomalies described as Marine Heat Waves do not follow a pattern that would imply a uniform atmospheric cause. Significantly, not all papers in the bibliography claim a uniform atmospheric cause although most eventually make a connection to AGW climate change. An oddity is that though the REVELATOR article presents MHW as a climate change horror in terms of irreversible climate change and the end of the ocean as we know it, and that “all the coral will die” etc, the bibliography does not. There are of course some impacts on ocean ecosystems in the MHW regions and these are described in the bibliography but they are localized and limited in time span. It is also of note than many of the papers ascribe these MHW events to known natural cyclical and localized temperature events such as the Indian Ocean Dipole and ENSO events. To that we should also add geological activity as a possible driver of these events because they are localized both in time and place, because they recur in the same location, and because of their prevalence in the geologically active polar regions in both the Arctic and the Antarctic.
It is highly unlikely that these events can be related to AGW climate change particularly so in the context of the Internal Climate Variability issue described in RP#6. No evidence is provided for that attribution.

Distribution_of_hydrothermal_vent_fields
HYDROTHERMAL VENT LOCATIONS

RP#3: THE BLOB: In the REVELATOR article the Blob is understood in terms of global warming and ocean heat content driven by global warming. In the related post we show that as in ocean heat content, these attributions have been made without due consideration of the oceanic geology and geothermal heat sources. The geologically active region known as the Pacific Ocean Ring of Fire contains 75% of the world’s active volcanoes. As such this region contains significant geothermal heat sources to create not only the two monster El Nino warming events in 1998 and 2016 but also the so called “Northern Pacific Blob”, a large mass of water that is warmer than the surrounding water (shown in red in the charts below). There is no long term trend or structure in the blob. Its formation and disappearance are events. In RP#3 we show that these events coincide with significant geological activity that can explain these localized and random events better than global warming. The REVELATOR paper presents no evidence to relate the blob to AGW climate change but simply assumes that relationship. In RP#3 we show that the the more rational geological explanation of the blob makes it imperative that the claim of AGW causation can only be made with significant evidence. This causation cannot be assumed as the Revelator has done.

blob

RP#4: IS AGW WARMING THE DEEP OCEAN? In the related post a Phys.Org article claims that at shallower depths temperatures fluctuated roughly monthly by up to a degree Celsius but in the deeper ocean temperature fluctuations were minute, but changes followed an annual pattern, indicating seasons still have a measurable impact far below the ocean surface. The average temperature at all four locations went up over the course of the decade, but the increase of about 0.02 degrees Celsius per decade was statistically significant at depths of over 4,500 meters. The authors claim that these results show that the temperature of the deep ocean are therefore atmosphere driven by AGW climate change. We argue however, that the geographical location of the data is close to Antarctica and it is generally recognized that the the Antarctic Ocean is subject to significant geothermal heat that plays a role in the ice melt events and also explains the relative warmth of the Deep Circumpolar Current in that region. The South Atlantic and specifically the Argentine Basin where these data were taken is located immediately north of this geologically active area and it is known to be geologically active such that the observed abyssal warming of 0.02 to 0.04C over a decade can be explained as a geological event. A relevant bibliography is provided below that supports this evaluation. The additional consideration is that a brief decadal warming event in the geographically limited region of the Argentine Basin of the Southwest Atlantic must be understood as an internal described in RP#6 below. The temperature variability described does not have an interpretation in terms of anthropogenic global warming and climate change. That theory relates to long term trends in global mean temperature and not to temperature events particularly so when they are geographically and time scale constrained. It is not possible to understand the localized decadal warming event in a geologically active region in terms of anthropogenic global warming. A relevant bibliography is provided in related post RP#4.

Climate change and the ocean

CONCLUSION: THE REVELATOR ARTICLE ON OCEAN HEAT CONTENT INCLUDES THE UNSUPPORTED ASSUMPTION THAT ALL DEEP OCEAN TEMPERATURE CHANGES FOUND CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO AGW CLIMATE CHANGE BUT NO EVIDENCE IS PROVIDED FOR THAT ATTRIBUTION. IN RESPONSE WE HAVE PROVIDED SIGNIFICANT EVIDENCE AND REFERENCES AGAINST SUCH AN ASSUMPTION.

THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE OCEAN TOGETHER WEIGH 1.36E18 METRIC TONNES OF WHICH THE OCEAN IS 99.62% AND THE ATMOSPHERE 0.38%. .

LIST OF RELATED POSTS (RP)

RP#1: OCEAN HEAT CONTENT DATA AND PATTERNS: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/10/06/ohc/

RP#2: MARINE HEAT WAVES: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/01/30/ohw/

RP#3: THE BLOB: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/03/14/atmosphere-bias/

RP#4: AGW IS WARMING THE DEEP OCEAN: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/10/14/climate-change-is-warming-the-deep-ocean/

RP#5: WARMING OF THE SOUTHERN CIRCUMPOLAR CURRENT: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/08/11/the-ice-shelves-of-antarctica/

RP#6: THE INTERNAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY ISSUE IN CLIMATE SCIENCE: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/07/16/the-internal-variability-issue/

New Marine Heatwave Emerges off West Coast, Resembles "the Blob" | NOAA  Fisheries

THE RELEVANT BIBLIOGRAPHY OCEAN HEAT CONTENT

  1. Johnson, Gregory C., et al. “Deep Argo quantifies bottom water warming rates in the southwest Pacific Basin.” Geophysical Research Letters 46.5 (2019): 2662-2669. Data reported from mid‐2014 to late 2018 by a regional pilot array of Deep Argo floats in the Southwest Pacific Basin are used to estimate regional temperature anomalies from a long‐term climatology as well as regional trends over the 4.4 years of float data as a function of pressure. The data show warm anomalies that increase with increasing pressure from effectively 0 near 2,000 dbar to over 10 (±1) m°C by 4,800 dbar, uncertainties estimated at 5–95%. The 4.4‐year trend estimate shows warming at an average rate of 3 (±1) m°C/year from 5,000 to 5,600 dbar, in the near‐homogeneous layer of cold, dense bottom water of Antarctic origin. These results suggest acceleration of previously reported long‐term warming trends in the abyssal waters in this region. They also demonstrate the ability of Deep Argo to quantify changes in the deep ocean in near real‐time over short periods with high accuracy.
  2. Thomson, Richard E., Earl E. Davis, and Brenda J. Burd. “Hydrothermal venting and geothermal heating in Cascadia Basin.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 100.B4 (1995): 6121-6141. Observations in Cascadia Basin on the eastern flank of the northern Juan de Fuca Ridge reveal significant bottom water modification as a result of regional conductive heating and local hydrothermal venting. Seafloor conductive heating occurs throughout the sedimented basin while hydrothermal fluid discharge is confined to small (∼1 km2) isolated igneous basement outcrops. In the northern sector of the plateaulike basin, the vertical fluxes of heat and mass associated with these seafloor processes lead to the formation of a 250‐ to 350‐m‐thick “geothermal boundary layer” characterized by anomalously high temperature, reduced vertical stability, and high dissolved silicate concentration. Using a basinwide average lithospheric heat flux of 0.3 W m−2 and the observed thermal anomaly structure of the water column, we obtain a mean residence time of 1 to 2 years for the deep water over Cascadia Basin. Detailed water property data collected in 1992 and 1993 within the immediate vicinity of three isolated igneous basement outcrops in the north‐central sector of the basin indicate that local bottom‐water heating arises from low‐temperature venting through the summit and flanks of the outcrops. Near the smallest edifice, especially well‐defined layers of anomalously warm, particle‐laden water were found within ±20 m of the outcrop summit depth of 2610 m. Maximum anomalies of temperature, light attenuation coefficient, and dissolved silicate concentration in the layers were 0.040°C, 0.015 m−1, and 5 μmol L−1, respectively. We estimate the local heat flux, Fo′ from the smallest outcrop to be (2.4±0.8)U × 109 W, where U (m s−1) is the mean horizontal current at the venting depth. For reasonable mean currents in the range 10−3 to 10−2 m s−1, we find Fo′ ≈ 0.2 to 2.4 × 107 W. Assuming that the depressed conductive heat flow of −0.05 W m−2 observed through the sedimented seafloor surrounding the smallest outcrop reflects the advective loss of heat through the outcrop, the radial distance over which crustal fluids must collect heat and converge on the outcrop is about 10 km.
  3. Purkey, Sarah G., et al. “Unabated bottom water warming and freshening in the South Pacific Ocean.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 124.3 (2019): 1778-1794. Abyssal ocean warming contributed substantially to anthropogenic ocean heat uptake and global sea level rise between 1990 and 2010. In the 2010s, several hydrographic sections crossing the South Pacific Ocean were occupied for a third or fourth time since the 1990s, allowing for an assessment of the decadal variability in the local abyssal ocean properties among the 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s. These observations from three decades reveal steady to accelerated bottom water warming since the 1990s. Strong abyssal (z > 4,000 m) warming of 3.5 (±1.4) m°C/year (m°C = 10−3 °C) is observed in the Ross Sea, directly downstream from bottom water formation sites, with warming rates of 2.5 (±0.4) m°C/year to the east in the Amundsen‐Bellingshausen Basin and 1.3 (±0.2) m°C/year to the north in the Southwest Pacific Basin, all associated with a bottom‐intensified descent of the deepest isotherms. Warming is consistently found across all sections and their occupations within each basin, demonstrating that the abyssal warming is monotonic, basin‐wide, and multidecadal. In addition, bottom water freshening was strongest in the Ross Sea, with smaller amplitude in the Amundsen‐Bellingshausen Basin in the 2000s, but is discernible in portions of the Southwest Pacific Basin by the 2010s. These results indicate that bottom water freshening, stemming from strong freshening of Ross Shelf Waters, is being advected along deep isopycnals and mixed into deep basins, albeit on longer timescales than the dynamically driven, wave‐propagated warming signal. We quantify the contribution of the warming to local sea level and heat budgets.
  4. Speer, Kevin G. “The Stommel and Arons model and geothermal heating in the South Pacific.” Earth and planetary science letters 95.3-4 (1989): 359-366. The model of Joyce and Speer (1987) [2] for the large-scale influence of a geothermal heat source in an ocean basin is applied to the South Pacific, taking into account observed isopycnal depth variations and tracer distributions. These observations are used with the model to estimate the required geothermal heating and strength of the background Stommel and Arons flow. Both heating and background flow are necessary in the model for agreement with observations.
  5. Joyce, Terrence M., Bruce A. Warren, and Lynne D. Talley. “The geothermal heating of the abyssal subarctic Pacific Ocean.” Deep Sea Research Part A. Oceanographic Research Papers 33.8 (1986): 1003-1015. Recent deep CTD-O2 measurements in the abyssal North Pacific along 175°W, 152°W, and 47°N indicate large-scale changes in the O-S characteristics in the deepest kilometer of the water column. Geothermal heat flux from the abyssal sediments can be invoked as the agent for causing large-scale modification of abyssal temperatures (but not salinities) in the subarctic Pacific Ocean. East-west and north-south thermal age differences of about 100 years are inferred using a spatially uniform geothermal heat flux of 5 x 10-2 WrmW m-2.
  6. Adcroft, Alistair, Jeffery R. Scott, and Jochem Marotzke. “Impact of geothermal heating on the global ocean circulation.” Geophysical Research Letters 28.9 (2001): 1735-1738. The response of a global circulation model to a uniform geothermal heat flux of 50 mW m−2 through the sea floor is examined. If the geothermal heat input were transported upward purely by diffusion, the deep ocean would warm by 1.2°C. However, geothermal heating induces a substantial change in the deep circulation which is larger than previously assumed and subsequently the warming of the deep ocean is only a quarter of that suggested by the diffusive limit. The numerical ocean model responds most strongly in the Indo‐Pacific with an increase in meridional overturning of 1.8 Sv, enhancing the existing overturning by approximately 25%.
  7. Zilberman, N. V., D. H. Roemmich, and S. T. Gille. “The East Pacific Rise current: Topographic enhancement of the interior flow in the South Pacific Ocean.” Geophysical Research Letters 44.1 (2017): 277-285. Observations of absolute velocity based on Argo float profiles and trajectories in the ocean interior show evidence for an equatorward current, the East Pacific Rise current, between 42°S and 30°S, along the western flank of the East Pacific Rise. The East Pacific Rise current carries predominantly intermediate water masses, including Subantarctic Mode Water and Antarctic Intermediate Water, and deeper waters, from the southern edge of the subtropical gyre toward the Equator. The 2004 to 2014 mean East Pacific Rise current transport extrapolated through the 0–2600 m depth range is 8.1 ± 1.6 sverdrup (Sv) (1 Sv = 106 m3 s−1), consistent with a wind‐driven interior transport influenced by the East Pacific Rise topography. While deep ocean mixing and geothermal heating can both create pressure gradients that support geostrophic flows in the deep ocean, this study indicates that about half of the East Pacific Rise current transport is associated with topographic steering of the deep flow over the East Pacific Rise.
  8. Scott, Jeffery R., Jochem Marotzke, and Alistair Adcroft. “Geothermal heating and its influence on the meridional overturning circulation.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 106.C12 (2001): 31141-31154. The effect of geothermal heating on the meridional overturning circulation is examined using an idealized, coarse‐resolution ocean general circulation model. This heating is parameterized as a spatially uniform heat flux of 50 m W m−2 through the (flat) ocean floor, in contrast with previous studies that have considered regional circulation changes caused by an isolated hot spot or a series of plumes along the Mid‐Atlantic Ridge. In our model results the equilibrated response is largely advective: a deep perturbation of the meridional overturning cell on the order of several sverdrups is produced, connecting with an upper level circulation at high latitudes, allowing the additional heat to be released to the atmosphere. Rising motion in the perturbation deep cell is concentrated near the equator. The upward penetration of this cell is limited by the thermocline, analogous to the role of the stratosphere in limiting the upward penetration of convective plumes in the atmosphere. The magnitude of the advective response is inversely proportional to the deep stratification; with a weaker background meridional overturning circulation and a less stratified abyss the overturning maximum of the perturbation deep cell is increased. This advective response also cools the low‐latitude thermocline. The qualitative behavior is similar in both a single‐hemisphere and a double‐hemisphere configuration. In summary, the anomalous circulation driven by geothermal fluxes is more substantial than previously thought. We are able to understand the structure and strength of the response in the idealized geometry and further extend these ideas to explain the results of Adcroft et al. [2001], where the impact of geothermal heating was examined using a global configuration.
  9. Liang, Xinfeng, et al. “Vertical redistribution of oceanic heat content.” Journal of Climate 28.9 (2015): 3821-3833. Estimated values of recent oceanic heat uptake are on the order of a few tenths of a W m−2, and are a very small residual of air–sea exchanges, with annual average regional magnitudes of hundreds of W m−2. Using a dynamically consistent state estimate, the redistribution of heat within the ocean is calculated over a 20-yr period. The 20-yr mean vertical heat flux shows strong variations in both the lateral and vertical directions, consistent with the ocean being a dynamically active and spatially complex heat exchanger. Between mixing and advection, the two processes determining the vertical heat transport in the deep ocean, advection plays a more important role in setting the spatial patterns of vertical heat exchange and its temporal variations. The global integral of vertical heat flux shows an upward heat transport in the deep ocean, suggesting a cooling trend in the deep ocean. These results support an inference that the near-surface thermal properties of the ocean are a consequence, at least in part, of internal redistributions of heat, some of which must reflect water that has undergone long trajectories since last exposure to the atmosphere. The small residual heat exchange with the atmosphere today is unlikely to represent the interaction with an ocean that was in thermal equilibrium at the start of global warming. An analogy is drawn with carbon-14 “reservoir ages,” which range from over hundreds to a thousand years.

It's Official: Solar Energy Cheaper Than Fossil Fuels - EcoWatch
Subsidy-Free Renewables As Cheap or Cheaper than Fossil-Fuel Power | Energy  Central

ABSTRACT: The good news that resolves and dissolves all the arguments about the inadequacies of renewable energy is delivered to us by the Telegraph on December 12, 2020 in their article on a cost comparison between renewables and fossil fuels. It says that a family in England that was paying energy bills of £713/month = £8,556 a year was able to reduce their cost of energy by £4,380 a year by switching from fossil fuels to renewables. This proves that renewables are now competitive with fossil fuels in the market for energy. Even greater support for this conclusion is found in that the family was able to further lower their energy cost by £1,800 a year when they replaced their Jaguar gasoline car with a Tesla electric car. This story in the Telegraph shows that renewable energy technology has matured and is now competitive in the market for energy to the point that fossil fuels can no longer compete with renewables not only for home needs and and swimming pool heating needs but for automobile transportation as well. The dramatic and amazing conclusion we can draw from the information provided by the Telegraph is that we no longer need to create fear of climate change to force the energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables that we want. This remarkable piece of information from the Telegraph marks the end of the climate change fearmongering movement that had become necessary to force the energy transition away from fossil fuels to renewables when renewables were not competitive in the market for energy. THIS BREAKTHROUGH PIECE IN THE TELEGRAPH MARKS THE END OF CLIMATE ACTIVISM AGAINST FOSSIL FUELS AND CAPITALISM BECAUSE CLIMATE ACTION WILL NOW BE DRIVEN IN THE MARKET FOR ENERGY BY CAPITALISM ITSELF AND BY THE MARKET FOR ENERGY, AND NOT BY CLIMATE SCIENCE. CAPITALISM WILL RID THE WORLD OF FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS.

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF AN ARTICLE IN THE TELEGRAPH THAT RENEWABLE ENERGY IS NOW CCOMPETITIVE AGAINST FOSSIL FUELS IN TERMS OF BOTH COST AND UTILITY. LINK TO SOURCE: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/going-green-saved-family-nearly-7000-year-energy-bills/

WITH THANKS TO PAUL HOMEWOOD OF NOT-A-LOT-OF-PEOPLE-KNOW-THAT: LINK: https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2020/12/12/telegraphs-puff-for-green-energy/

Fox Climate Reporting Rates “Pants on Fire” – “Retired Accountant” as  Climate Expert | Climate Denial Crock of the Week

PART-1: WHAT THE TELEGRAPH ARTICLE SAYS

The swarms of young people moving back home during coronavirus lockdowns will have left many parents paying higher household bills. One exception to this is the family of 24-year-old Grace Stencil, from Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk, who helped her parents save more than £7,000 a year on their bills by switching to an eco-friendly lifestyle. Ms Stencil, who runs her own company selling CBD-infused products, moved in with her parents when lockdown struck and quickly realised that they were spending far more on energy bills than they needed to. When her parents received a monthly energy bill of £713, equivalent to £8,556 a year, she set about looking for ways to cut costs – and their carbon footprint. “My mum mentioned in passing how much they were paying. Over the years, we’d had a pool put in, which costs a lot to heat, and started heating our conservatory in the winter. Things just started adding up,” Ms Stencil said. “I thought the cost was absurd. So, we all sat down together and went through the changes we could make.” While the aim was to save money, Ms Stencil was also keen to nudge her family towards a greener lifestyle. After trawling a price comparison website, the family found they could cut their energy bill by £4,380 a year by switching from their old supplier’s expensive Economy 7 tariff to a cheaper deal with Pure Planet, a renewable energy supplier, while at the same time cutting their carbon dioxide emissions to zero. Ms Stencil’s father, who commuted less during lockdown, also decided to sell the family’s petrol-powered Jaguar and switch to an electric Tesla, which they expect to reduce their running costs by more than £1,800 a year. Ms Stencil said: “My dad has always liked cars and thought he would save money in the long run by switching to electric. As he wasn’t travelling to London too much during the lockdown, it was a convenient option.” On top of switching energy supplier and swapping petrol for electric, the family decided to convert the Aga from an oil-burning model to an electric one, saving them around £1,680 a year. They also installed a better swimming pool cover to reduce heat loss by 85pc and cut running costs by a third, saving £780 a year. In their mission to go green, the Stencils even replaced their lightbulbs with more efficient LED versions. “Once we got going, we just thought, ‘we are on a roll’,” Ms Stencil said. Without taking into account the cost or savings of the new Tesla, the family spent a total of £2,800 on home improvements, which they should recoup through energy bill savings in roughly four months. Including the outlay for the Tesla Model X, it would take just over five years to make up for the expenditure with savings. There is plenty of research suggesting that most people would like to be more environmentally friendly, but according to the Pure Planet People & Power Report, 81pc of adults admit they could do more to be sustainable at home. The survey found that almost two thirds of the public think it is more expensive to lead a sustainable lifestyle, while only 5pc think it is cheaper to be green. Almost a third of 18-to-35-year-old said they could not afford to be more sustainable, compared to one-in-five over-55s. Cordelia Samson, of comparison website Uswitch, said: “It’s a common misconception that renewable energy plans are more expensive than other types of tariff. Green energy is advancing rapidly, meaning renewable energy can be cheaper to produce than ever before. This means that green energy plans can be some of the cheapest on the market.” Ms Stencil added: “There are so many statistics coming out on how we’re ruining the world, and I think every little helps. If everyone does their part, it’s going to make an impact. “I recommend going green completely – it really wasn’t difficult. “Our life hasn’t changed dramatically. It took a maximum of four hours for us to sit down and figure out what changes to make. The changes then happened within a week. Now we have better consciences.” And cheaper bills, too.

Renewable Power Costs Plummet: Many Sources Now Cheaper than Fossil Fuels  Worldwide

PART-2: CRITICAL COMMENTARY

This article says that renewable energy is now competitive with fossil fuels and that therefore it sells itself in the market for energy without the need for fear based activism against fossil fuels as for example in the case of catastrophic human caused climate change by way of fossil fuel emissions. This claim is inconsistent with the claim by climate science that the inability of renewables to compete with fossil fuels in the market for energy derives from the unavailability of energy storage technologies for renewable energy; but that promising new technologies for energy storage are under development that will eventually make renewables competitive with fossil fuels in the market for energy without the need for fear based climate activism against fossil fuels: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/08/18/energy-storage/ . A likely explanation of this contradiction is that advances have been made in those energy storage technologies that have rendered renewables competitive in the market.

Energy Storage: The Key to a Reliable, Clean Electricity Supply |  Department of Energy

IN THE RELATED POST ON ENERGY STORAGE TECHNOLOGY R&D WE NOTE AS FOLLOWS:

A HISTORICAL CONTEXT: In the history of energy that drove human progress since the Neolithic Revolution from human power, animal power, the invention of the wheel, water wheels, windmills, the combustion of carbon based fuels, and nuclear power, the evolution of energy technology was orderly and progressive. These changes were driven by ideas and innovations in a market economy. The dynamics of a market for energy that selects winners and losers is the evolutionary process gave us the fossil fueled economy we live in today.

FOSSIL FUELS: However, certain downsides to fossil fuels were identified in the 1960s when smog, oil spills, acid rain, and other environmental issues emerged as serious issues from both human welfare and ecology points of view. The 1960s hippie movement against fossil fuels was a product of these weaknesses in fossil fuel energy. These environmental problems with fossil fuels spearheaded the renewable energy movement more than 50 years ago with innovations in wind, solar, tidal, and geothermal energy. The renewable energy technology that had held out the greatest promise in those days was tidal energy. However, in the market for energy, even as renewable energy was being developed and implemented, fossil fuels regained the upper hand with technological innovations needed to overcome environmental laws enforced by the newly formed Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

These innovations by the fossil fuel industry solved the smog, the acid rain, and oil spill problems and weakened the case against fossil fuels. At the same time, the widespread implementation of renewables revealed their operational weaknesses in terms of intermittency, high maintenance cost, and power output variability such that the power delivered was not under human control without fossil fueled backup power. As a result, renewables could not compete with the new improved fossil fuel energy product free of smog and acid rain. Wind, solar, tidal, and geothermal waned and retreated into a near death experience.

tidal energy | National Geographic Society

This left the large and growing environmental movement against fossil fuels in shock because it had seemed for a time that the war against fossil fuels had been won and that clean green renewables were the future of energy. The rise of fear based climate change environmentalism against fossil fuels is best understood in this historical context. Fear based climate change is preached by climate scientists and activist with horrific predictions of extreme heat, the collapse of polar ice sheets, catastrophic sea level rise, extreme weather in terms of storms, droughts, floods, heat waves, forest fires, leading to mass extinctions, and the collapse of civilization. An evolution of the phraseology from global warming to global heating and from climate change to climate crisis or climate emergency is best understood in the context of fear based activism against fossil fuels. The only escape from these climate horrors is offered in the form of moving the world’s energy infrastructure from fossil fuels to renewables. These features of the theory of anthropogenic global warming and climate change leave little doubt that it is anti fossil fuel activism.

In the related post on energy storage solutions to the intermittency and unreliability of renewables: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/08/18/energy-storage/ we show that new technologies such as TES, PCM, and PHES, currently in development, are held out as solutions to the unreliability of renewables that will make renewables competitive with fossil fuels in the market for energy. In the context of the history of the cart before the horse forced implementation of wind and solar renewables with fear based activism, the promising developments for reliable wind and solar renewables, offered after the fact, reveals the failure and the fallacy of forced fear based activism as a method for promoting an unreliable energy technology that is not ready to compete in the market for energy. A technology still under development and not ready for the market was thus imposed with activism.


This grotesque history of the attempt to force an energy transition with a technology that is still under development is revealed as yet another criminal failure in a poorly thought out activism against fossil fuels before the proposed alternative energy technology was ready for implementation. The admission after 40 years of climate activism against fossil fuels that technologies for reliability of renewables are still in development: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/08/18/energy-storage/ discredits the climate movement against fossil fuels. There should be criminal charges or at the least lawsuits against the perpetrators of this scam.

THE GOOD NEWS FROM THE DAILY TELEGRAPH: DECEMBER 2020

The good news that resolves and dissolves all the arguments about the inadequacies of renewable energy made above is delivered to us by the Telegraph on December 12, 2020 in their article on a cost comparison between renewables and fossil fuels.

It says that a family in England that was paying energy bills of £713/month = £8,556 a year was able to reduce their cost of energy by £4,380 a year by switching from fossil fuels to renewables.

This proves that renewables are now competitive with fossil fuels in the market for energy. Even greater support for this conclusion is found in that the family was able to further lower their energy cost by £1,800 a year when they replaced their Jaguar gasoline car with a Tesla electric car.

Tesla destroys German critic's electric car prejudice after Model 3 test  drive

This story in the Telegraph shows that renewable energy technology has matured and is now competitive in the market for energy to the point that fossil fuels can no longer compete with renewables not only for home needs and and swimming pool heating needs but for automobile transportation as well. The dramatic and amazing conclusion we can draw from the information provided by the Telegraph is that we no longer need to create fear of climate change to force the energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables that we want.

This remarkable piece of information from the Telegraph marks the end of the climate change fearmongering movement that had become necessary to force the energy transition away from fossil fuels to renewables when renewables were not competitive in the market for energy.

Jay-Z, climate change and horror fiction - Geographical Magazine

THIS BREAKTHROUGH PIECE IN THE TELEGRAPH MARKS THE END OF CLIMATE ACTIVISM AGAINST FOSSIL FUELS AND CAPITALISM BECAUSE CLIMATE ACTION WILL NOW BE DRIVEN NOT BY CLIMATE SCIENCE BUT BY THE MARKET FOR ENERGY AND BY CAPITALISM ITSELF. THE MARKET FOR ENERGY WILL RID THE WORLD OF FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS.

The horror of climate change: Arctic is on fire
A Scary Year for Climate Change - Scientific American Blog Network
Landmark United in Science report informs Climate Action Summit — IPCC

THIS POST IS A PRESENTATION OF A RESEARCH PAPER ON THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE DESTRUCTIVENESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE CONTEXT OF THE ASSUMPTION THAT CLIMATE SCIENCE IS CREDIBLE BECAUSE CLIMATE SCIENTISTS ARE SCIENTISTS, THAT THEY ARE RESPECTED SCIENTISTS, AND THAT THESE RESPECTED SCIENTISTS AGREE WITH EACH OTHER.

THE RESEARCH PAPER PRESENTED HERE WAS PUBLISHED IN 2005 BY EMINENT AND HIGHLY RESPECTED CLIMATE SCIENTIST PROFESSOR KERRY EMANUEL OF MIT IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE DEVASTATION OF HURRICANE KATRINA.

hurricane
HURRICANE KATRINA
emanuel-figure1
THE FINDING OF EMANUEL 2005
Hurricane Katrina: flooding in New Orleans 2

  1. BACKGROUND INFORMATION: Sea surface temperature (SST) is the link that connects climate change research with tropical cyclone research. Rising SST is observed and thought to be an effect of Anthropogenic global warming or AGW (Hansen, 2005). At the same time, the theory of tropical cyclones holds that cyclone formation, and particularly cyclone intensification are related to SST (Vecchi, 2007) (Knutson, 2010). Testable implications of the theory for empirical research are derived from climate model simulations (Knutson, 2010) and also from sedimentary evidence of land-falling hurricanes over a 1500-year period (Mann, 2009). These studies suggest some guidelines for the testable implications of of the impact of AGW on tropical cyclone activity (Knutson, 2010).
  2. A high level of interest in tropical cyclones derives from an unusually active hurricane season in 2004 when more than 15 tropical cyclones formed in the North Atlantic basin . Four of these storms intensified to Category 4 or greater and made landfall in the USA causing considerable damage. The even more dramatic 2005 season followed in its heels with more than thirty depressions. Four of them intensified to Category 5 and three made landfall. The most intense was Hurricane Wilma but the most spectacular was Hurricane Katrina which made landfall in Florida and again in Louisiana. Its devastation was facilitated by a breach in the levee system that was unrelated to AGW but its dramatic consequences made it an icon of the possible extreme weather impacts of AGW.
  3. The research paper (Emanuel, 2005) came in the heels of these events and after the breathless media had already decided that Katrina was a creation of climate change and a taste of the climate change horror yet to come. (Emanuel 2005) is possibly best understood in this context. The assumed attribution by the media of the epic devastation to AGW set the stage for climate science to claim the destructiveness of hurricanes as extreme weather effects of AGW. The Emanuel 2005 paper was one of several published in the heels of these hurricane seasons. It presents a new measure of tropical cyclone intensity which the author calls “Power Dissipation Index” and to which he assigns the acronym PDI. The paper finds a statistically significant rising trend in the aggregate annual PDI of North Atlantic Hurricanes in the study period 1949-2004 in tandem with rising sea surface temperature (SST) for the appropriate zone where hurricanes form. The graphical depiction of this result is reproduced above in the chart labeled “findings of Emanuel 2005”.
  4. The usual measure of tropical cyclone activity is the ACE or Accumulated Cyclone Energy. It is computed as the sum of squares of the maximum sustained wind speed in each 6-hour window during the life of the cyclone. It represents the total amount of kinetic energy generated by a tropical cyclone and this energy has been related to the energy in the ocean surface as measured by surface temperatures and temperature differentials such that the cyclone can be described as a heat engine (Rotunno, 1987) (Emanuel, 1987) (Goni, 2003) (Latif, 2007) (Klotzbach, 2006) (Emanuel, 2003), but the ACE measure did not show the trend that the author had thought that he would find. It is at this point the research leaves the realm of objective and unbiased scientific inquiry.
  5. Here, the respected scientist decided to cube the velocities instead of squaring them as a way of increasing the differences among annual values. This innovation produced the desired result and a trend became evident over the last 30 years of the 55-year study period as seen in the chart above labeled “the finding of Emanual 2005.
  6. Since the sum of cubes could not be called ACE, the author gave it a new name and called it the Power Dissipation Index or PDI, a new terminology invented on the spot and post hoc. The object variable in the hypothesis was thus changed from ACE to PDI. The PDI hypothesis was then modified to exclude the first 22 years of the study period where no trend and very little correspondence between PDI and SST are seen in the chart above. Thus, the tailor made post hoc hypothesis to be tested was whether there is a rising trend in the PDI in the most recent 30 years (1975-2004) of the study period.
  7. This hypothesis was then tested with the same data over the same time span that was used to construct it. The procedure of testing a hypothesis with the data used to construct the hypothesis constitutes circular reasoning because the methodology subsumes and ensures the desired result.
  8. At this point, a rising trend is seen in the PDI time series 1975-2004 at an annual time scale but the trend is not statistically significant because of extreme year to year variability in cyclone formation and intensification (Knutson, 2010). To smooth out the variance, the author took a 5-year moving average of the PDI data; and when that also failed to show a statistically significant trend, he took 5-year moving averages of the 5-year moving averages (in effect a 10-year moving average) and was finally able to find statistical significance for rising PDI over the last 30 years of the study period (Watkins, 2007). The findings presented by the paper are based on this rising trend and the visual correspondence between PDI and SST seen in the chart above.
  9. However, in his hypothesis test computations the author failed to correct for degrees of freedom lost in the computation of moving averages. When moving averages are computed some data values are used more than once. It can be shown that the average multiplicity of use is given by the relationship M = (λ/N)*(N-λ+1) where M is the average multiplicity, N is the sample size, and λ is the width of the moving window (Munshi, 2016) (VonStorch, 1995). In the case of a window with λ=10 years moving through a time series of N=30 years, the average multiplicity is M=7. The effective sample size is computed as EFFN=N/M or EFFN=30/7 = 4.285 and the degrees of freedom for the t-test for trend is DF=EFFN-2 or DF=2.285. The statistical significance reported by the author at N=30 and DF=28 is not found when the sample size is corrected for multiplicity. A false sense of statistical power was created by the methodology used when decadal moving averages were taken (Watkins, 2007) (Munshi, 2016). Full text download links for the paper on moving averages  [SSRN.COM]  [ACADEMIA.EDU]  .
  10. The North Atlantic basin is just one of six major cyclone basins around the world. The other five are The West Pacific, the East Pacific, the South Pacific, the North Indian, and the South Indian. The most active basin is the West Pacific. The theory of anthropogenic global warming as expressed in terms of climate models indicates that only long term changes in global averages of all six cyclone basins may be interpreted in terms of the impacts of climate change (Knutson, 2010). The study of a single basin is unlikely to contain useful information relevant to AGW. Data for all six basins over a 70-year study period 1945-2014 does not show trends in total aggregate annual ACE that can be interpreted as an impact of warming as shown in three related posts on this site  [LINK] [LINK] [LINK] . 
  11. It is likely that (Emanuel, 2005) was a product of climate activism that had reached a high level of intensity in the years leading up to 2005 by way of the push for the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol for CO2 emission reduction as well as the European heat wave of 2003 that was claimed and widely accepted to be caused by AGW. It was a time when the extreme weather effect of AGW was given credence by the IPCC and generally taken for granted. Given the theoretical basis that connected SST to tropical cyclones, the truth of AGW driven hurricane intensity was thus taken to be a given and then apparently proven by the 2004/2005 hurricane seasons. It remained for climate science only to tend to the details of presenting the data in the appropriate format.
  12. Thus the ultimate form of circular reasoning is found in (Emanuel, 2005) in which a high level of confidence ex-ante in the truth of the proposition that AGW causes extreme tropical cyclone activity left the presentation of empirical evidence of that relationship as mere detail. The role of confirmation bias in research of this nature is discussed in a related post [CONFIRMATION BIAS] .FOOTNOTE: Guidelines for attribution of tropical cyclone properties to climate change: 1. Globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones will rise as AGW increases SST. Models predict globally averaged intensity increase of 2% to 11% by 2100. 2. Models predict falling globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones with frequency decreasing 6%-34% by 2100. 3. The globally averaged frequency of “most intense tropical cyclones” should increase as a result of AGW. The intensity of tropical cyclones is measured as the ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy). 4. Models predict increase in precipitation within a 100 km radius of the storm center. A precipitation rise of 20% is projected for the year 2100.
  13. Complications of empirical tests in this line of research: 1. Extremely high variance in tropical cyclone data at an annual time scale suggests longer, perhaps a decadal time scale which in turn greatly reduces statistical power. 2. Limited data availability and poor data quality present barriers to research. 3. Limited theoretical understanding of natural variability makes it difficult to ascertain whether the variability observed in the data is in excess of natural variability. 4. Model projections for individual cyclone basins show large differences and conflicting results. Thus, no testable implication can be derived for studies of individual basins. It is necessary that empirical studies have a global geographical span. 5. Advances in data collection activity, methods, and technology create trends in the data that must be separated from climate change effects (Landsea, 2007) (Landsea, 2010).

YET, THE AD HOMINEM ARGUMENT IN DEFENSE OF THESE FINDINGS AND OF CLIMATE SCIENCE AND CLIMATE SCIENTISTS CAN STILL BE MADE IN TERMS OF THE THE QUALIFICATIONS OF THE RESEARCHER AND HIS HIGH AND RESPECTED POSITION IN MIT AND IN CLIMATE SCIENCE.

Making History of a Hurricane | National Geographic Society

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  1. FOOTNOTE: Guidelines for attribution of tropical cyclone properties to climate change: 1. Globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones will rise as AGW increases SST. Models predict globally averaged intensity increase of 2% to 11% by 2100. 2. Models predict falling globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones with frequency decreasing 6%-34% by 2100. 3. The globally averaged frequency of “most intense tropical cyclones” should increase as a result of AGW. The intensity of tropical cyclones is measured as the ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy). 4. Models predict increase in precipitation within a 100 km radius of the storm center. A precipitation rise of 20% is projected for the year 2100.


  • chaamjamal: Thank you for your input
  • Ruben Leon: When your mind is made up you ignore the data and try to justify the bias you acquired as a juvenile and never questioned. The fact that the Antar
  • chaamjamal: Thank you for raising these interesting points. We live in strange times. Some day we may figure this out.