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chicken-little-the-sky-is-falling - Communities Digital News

THE GUARDIAN: LINK: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/15/scientists-link-record-breaking-hurricane-season-to-climate-crisis CLIMATE CHANGE CAUSES RECORD BREAKING HURRICANE SEASON IN 2020.

CHICKEN LITTLE WAS AN OPTIMIST | RANDOM THOUGHTS

CLAIM: Evidence is not so much in the number of tropical storms the Atlantic has seen, but in their strength. Hurricane Mitch in 1998 was the most destructive storm to hit Central America. But hundreds of thousands of subsistence farmers across the region have lost everything in flooding caused by Eta, which made landfall in Nicaragua as a category 4 hurricane on 3 November. Now, with a second hurricane projected to make landfall on Monday near where Eta did, even more could find themselves in the same situation. Climate scientists say that this year’s record-breaking hurricane season and the “unprecedented” double blow for Central America has a clear link to the climate crisis. In a 36-hour period Hurricane Eta went from a depression to a very strong category 4. This is just not normal. Probably it was the fastest spin up from a depression to a major hurricane in history. The evidence of the influence of the climate crisis is not so much in the record-breaking 30 tropical storms in the Atlantic so far this year, but the strength, rapid intensification and total rainfall of these weather systems. The warmer ocean waters that climate change brings are expected to make storms stronger and make them rapidly intensify more frequently and at a greater rate. These things have already been observed, particularly in the Atlantic, and it’s going to be increasingly so in coming decades. Central America has been one of the regions most affected by the climate crisis to date, first with Hurricane Mitch, and in recent years with more extreme weather patterns, particularly in what’s known as the dry corridor, which extends from northern Costa Rica all the way to southern Mexico. Heat is energy, depending on the prevailing weather conditions will intensify those conditions. People are dying! This is how the climate crisis has sparked an exodus from Central America to the US. In the dry corridor, that has meant more frequent, prolonged and intense droughts as well as heavier rainfall when it does come, often causing flash flooding that washes away crops. Subsistence farmers in the region have struggled to adapt to the new reality, and many in the region have simply given up and left. The climate crisis – and the hunger it brings – is increasingly being recognized as a major driver of emigration from the region. There aren’t a lot of options for Central America to deal with the global warming issue. There are going to be a lot migrants and in fact, a lot of the migration that’s already happening in recent years is due to the drought that started affecting Central America back in 2015. Hondurans migrated to the US in significant numbers for the first time following Hurricane Mitch. In the year before the Covid-19 pandemic, more than 250,000 Hondurans were apprehended at the US south-west border, more than double any previous year and surpassed only by its neighbor to the north, Guatemala. According to the Red Cross, at least 2.5 million people were affected by Hurricane Eta, including 1.7 million in Honduras. Many who have lost everything are already considering or making plans to migrate to the US and groups are beginning to organize caravans via social media. Unable to fulfill the needs of their citizens before the pandemic. The economic downturn has stretched the finances of Central American governments to the brink. And unlike following previous natural disasters, the international community is dealing with pandemic-related problems of its own and is unlikely to step in to fill the gap. Hurricane Iota could lead to even more widespread devastation across the region. Many areas still have high water levels from Eta, levees have been damaged or destroyed, dams are at or near capacity, and the saturated land could lead to more landslides like in Guatemala, where dozens are feared dead after part of a mountainside community was buried in mud. The Atlantic hurricane season is expected to last until December this year, meaning that Iota might not be the last. When a season like 2020 keeps on cranking these things out, it’s going to keep on doing that.

The Sky is Falling” Chicken Little – Manzanillo Sun

RESPONSE: Climate science has used a large number of climate model simulations to project the possible impacts of global warming on tropical cyclones. What they have concluded from these studies is that (1) global warming will cause higher sea surface temperature (SST) and the higher SST in turn will increase the amount of energy in tropical cyclones. Therefore global warming will cause the ACE cyclone intensity measure, accumulated cyclone energy, to rise over time as the globe warms.

Thomas Knutson
DR. THOMAS KNUTSON, NOAA

The details of these expected impacts are described in the research paper Tropical cyclones and climate change, Nature Geoscience 3.3 (2010): 157-163. In the paper, Tom Knutson spells out exactly what climate science claims in terms of the impact of AGW climate change on tropical cyclones with climate model predictions of the effect of rising SST on tropical cyclones.

His main points are as follows: (1) Globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones will rise as AGW increases SST. Models predict globally averaged intensity increase of 2% to 11% by 2100. (2). Models predict falling globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones with frequency decreasing 6%-34% by 2100. (3). The globally averaged frequency of “most intense tropical cyclones” should increase as a result of AGW. The intensity of tropical cyclones is measured as the ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy). (4). Models predict increase in precipitation within a 100 km radius of the storm center. A precipitation rise of 20% is projected for the year 2100. (5) Extremely high natural variability in tropical cyclone data at an annual time scale requires longer, perhaps a decadal time scale in the study of these trends. (6) Model projections for individual cyclone basins show large large natural variability from year to year. (7) Model projections also show large natural variability among the cyclone basins in any cyclone season. (8) Thus, no testable implication can be derived for studies of individual basins or of a single cyclone season.

The faulty science, doomism, and flawed conclusions of Deep Adaptation |  openDemocracy

IN THIS CONTEXT OF THE CLIMATE SCIENCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES, WE DO EXPECT AN IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON TROPICAL CYCLONES, BUT THE DATA SERVE AS EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE OF SUCH IMPACTS ONLY WHEN ALL SIX CYCLONE BASINS ARE STUDIED OVER MANY DECADES.

NO INFORMATION ABOUT THE IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON TROPICAL CYCLONES CAN BE FOUND IN THE DATA FOR A SINGLE CYCLONE BASIN NOR IN THE DATA FOR A SINGLE CYCLONE SEASON, MUCH LESS THE DATA FOR A SINGLE CYCLONE SEASON IN A SINGLE CYCLONE BASIN. THE STUDY OF THE 2020 HURRICANE SEASON IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC CYCLONE BASIN IS THUS FOUND TO BE FLAWED.

THE FINDINGS PRESENTED IN THE CLIMATE CHANGE ALARM ABOVE ARE REJECTED ON THIS BASIS.

Amazon.in: Buy Bad Science: A Brief History Of Bizarre Misconceptions,  Totally Wrong Conclusions, And Incredibly Stupid Theories Book Online at  Low Prices in India | Bad Science: A Brief History Of Bizarre

RELATED POSTS ON TROPICAL CYCLONES

LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/11/28/trends-in-tropical-cyclone-activity/ 

LINK#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/03/22/ace-sst/ 

LINK#3: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/04/04/1737/ LINK#4: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/08/01/tropical-cyclones-climate-change/ 

LINK#5: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/03/04/agwcyclones/

Development of tropical cyclones - Met Office

Redwood trees in Guerneville, California.

TREE PLANTING FOR THE CLIMATE IN THE WEST AND FOR THE $$$ IN THE THE THIRD WORLD. MOST OF THE PLANTING IS IN THE GLOBAL SOUTH. IN THE GLOBAL NORTH THE LEADERS ARE THE USA, SPAIN, AND FRANCE. ALSO CANADA, THE UK, AND GERMANY.

875 Money Slow Photos - Free & Royalty-Free Stock Photos from Dreamstime
7 Ways To Save Money Using Online Travel Search Engines – Forbes Advisor

HERE ARE THE TREE PLANTING LEADERS OF THE WORLD: LINK TO SOURCE: https://www.uniguide.com/countries-planting-the-most-trees/

COUNTRYTREES PLANTED%IMPACT
China2,407,149,4930.080238%
India2,159,420,8980.071981%
Ethiopia1,725,350,2340.057512%
Pakistan1,006,776,7240.033559%
Mexico789,307,0320.026310%
Turkey711,103,0880.023703%
Peru646,502,2360.021550%
Nigeria626,725,6670.020891%
Kenya534,680,6090.017823%
United States315,586,9820.010520%
Ghana220,571,2080.007352%
Italy211,269,2110.007042%
Myanmar192,154,9350.006405%
Philippines187,393,3710.006246%
Tanzania159,635,6540.005321%
Brazil144,078,2450.004803%
Cuba137,476,9440.004583%
Canada137,302,1210.004577%
Algeria128,124,5200.004271%
Burundi119,430,6690.003981%
Indonesia115,216,8830.003841%
Spain107,675,5570.003589%
Romania66,578,3660.002219%
South Korea58,725,8590.001958%
France40,510,6310.001350%
Estonia39,009,2360.001300%
Venezuela36,702,9570.001223%
Azerbaijan34,382,2120.001146%
Afghanistan34,019,2330.001134%
Benin30,742,9920.001025%
Morocco28,004,5590.000933%
Costa Rica25,518,6820.000851%
Belgium23,785,8800.000793%
Uganda21,866,9600.000729%
Tunisia21,008,7350.000700%
Senegal20,134,7020.000671%
Paraguay20,009,3950.000667%
Chile18,013,1320.000600%
Guatemala16,607,0810.000554%
United Kingdom14,550,5070.000485%
Japan14,093,5130.000470%
Colombia13,795,0020.000460%
Norway12,788,6110.000426%
Sri Lanka12,242,8590.000408%
Sierra Leone12,002,6620.000400%
Australia11,908,1340.000397%
Malaysia10,652,5290.000355%
Iraq10,241,0910.000341%
Thailand9,026,1740.000301%
Ecuador8,924,6260.000297%
Egypt8,542,5810.000285%
Germany8,523,6870.000284%
Taiwan7,642,0990.000255%
Panama7,265,4560.000242%
Bangladesh6,902,5280.000230%
Cameroon6,584,7450.000219%
Guinea6,566,4060.000219%
Nicaragua6,425,8100.000214%
Argentina6,157,3860.000205%
Gambia5,021,9000.000167%
Kyrgyzstan5,000,0000.000167%
South Africa4,862,9970.000162%
Austria4,574,9010.000152%
United Arab Emirates4,225,5760.000141%
Israel4,110,4510.000137%
Congo-Brazzaville3,962,3890.000132%
Nepal3,575,1970.000119%
Malawi3,330,8220.000111%
Zambia3,298,3440.000110%
Jordan2,607,8030.000087%
Armenia2,368,6410.000079%
Poland2,340,7310.000078%
Timor-Leste2,155,0000.000072%
Sweden2,126,5610.000071%
Albania2,045,3000.000068%
New Zealand1,970,3740.000066%
Portugal1,655,5750.000055%
Congo-Kinshasa1,554,3530.000052%
Mali1,516,1530.000051%
Ireland1,464,9080.000049%
Madagascar1,423,3850.000047%
Rwanda1,404,0810.000047%
Netherlands1,301,8000.000043%
Laos1,166,2490.000039%
Mozambique1,127,1830.000038%
Fiji1,077,8970.000036%
Mongolia1,041,3760.000035%
Turkmenistan880,0010.000029%
Cambodia833,5820.000028%
Burkina Faso693,3550.000023%
Montenegro650,8370.000022%
Bolivia639,2980.000021%
Sudan610,9810.000020%
Mauritius561,8850.000019%
Mauritania475,2300.000016%
Serbia424,4520.000014%
Haiti423,2430.000014%
Zimbabwe408,3560.000014%
Togo367,1650.000012%
Brunei336,4590.000011%
TOTAL13,593,004,0900.45310%
TREES CUT50000000000.166667%
NET GAIN8,593,004,0900.286433%
YEARS TO BREAK EVEN349 YEARS
Dialing For Dollars | KARK

LINK TO POST ON THE CARBON CREDITS MARKET: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/09/30/cer/

EXCERPT: Carbon credits are created by the combination of permits, offsets, and tradability. The permit is permission granted to a country, company or organization to produce a certain amount of emissions any portion of which can then be sold in the carbon credits market if not used. A complexity in the carbon trading scheme is the offset provision. It provides an incentive to firms or countries with no emission reduction obligation to invest in climate action the net effect of which may be sold to countries, firms, or individuals to cancel out a portion of their emissions. This provision is commonly seen in air travel where airlines buy offsets that cancel out the emissions from a flight and then sell the offset to passengers who wish to be carbon neutral. However, unlike the emission trading in the acid rain program, the climate change implementation of what appears to be the same provision is less well defined and vastly more complicated. First, there is no well defined legal superstructure for its regulation and implementation such that the structure and procedures are poorly defined and poorly regulated. Secondly, the emission problem to be solved by emission trading is poorly defined.

Climate change solutions: forest restoration might be one of the best ways  to fight climate change - Vox

A specific issue pointed out in [Sovacool, “Four Problems with Global Carbon Markets, Energy & Environment, Vol. 22, No. 6 (2011), pp. 681-694] is non-linearity. As described in related posts on this site, a complexity with the carbon budget is that the remaining carbon budget cannot be computed by subtraction or by linear proportionality but must be recomputed because of the non-linearity of the progression of the carbon budget through the time span of its implementation  [LINK] [LINK] . Yet carbon credit trading and carbon offset markets necessarily assume a linear relationship. Therefore the basis of the pricing changes over the time span of the credit but the pricing does not. In “Why are carbon markets failing? The Guardian, Fri 12 Apr 2013, Steffen Böhm, Professor of management and sustainability at Essex Business School points out the absence of government and regulatory oversight with well defined rules and definitions and their enforcement in the emission trading system of the carbon credit market. As pointed out above in the comparison with the Acid Rain Program, although the carbon credit market is derived from a comparison with the Acid Rain Program, the parallel is lacking the the well defined legal and governance superstructure that oversaw and ensured the success of the acid rain program. Dr. Böhm thus describes the carbon credit and offset market as inefficient and corrupt and says that the carbon trading system has failed citing these structural deficiencies as reasons for its failure.
The essential problem here, not just in the carbon credits market, but in the entire enterprise for saving the planet with climate action, is that the government, regulatory, legal, and management superstructure is the United Nations which sees itself as the EPA of the world in the comparison with the Acid Rain Program but it is not the EPA and has none of the EPA’s governance and regulatory powers, skills, and ability that made the acid rain program a success. This is the fundamental flaw in the assumed parallel between the acid rain program and the carbon credits market.
It is precisely this absence of governance and regulatory oversight that things like the Shell offset story can happen [Shell will spend $300 million to offset carbon emissions. Here’s the catch, By Akshat Rathi, Quartz, April 10, 2019]. Here Mr. Rathi reports that Shell sells carbon offsets to its customers in the Netherlands and uses those proceeds to buy carbon credits at the carbon credits market. If the carbon credits were truly a reduction that could be checked and verified and overseen by a professional body such as the EPA, it may have some validity but what we have is a dysfunctional bureaucracy at the UN as the sole governing and regulatory body of the carbon credits market. This regulatory vacuum also explains the ability of logging companies who plant and harvest trees anyway to sell carbon credits every time they plant. And in terms of climate action carbon budgets, the emission reduction in the books contains carbon credits purchased by Annex1 countries from dubious projects in nonAnnex countries such as the alleged “preservation” of forests that probably would have been there anyway.

When Nations Get Busy Planting Trees – Plant With Purpose

Café Bambi - โพสต์ | Facebook

ABSTRACT: The forest is presented as a kind of idealized human-free world where nature can frolic. Unless humans arrive, animals of all species live without fear in a “paradise” untouched by human hands where even owls have morphed into vegetarians. Here all interaction with humans, and only with humans, end in death or suffering. There is a complete separation of nature into two worlds – humans and humanless nature. The big issue in modern environmentalism is that it has been extended into the Anthropocene. It is described as a paradise lost where humans have seized control of nature and of the planet. This construct of environmentalism is one where Bambi played a role. The modern concept of an ecosystem is that it does not contain humans but that it must be managed by humans.

THAT HUMANS ARE THE MANAGERS AND CARETAKERS OF NATURE IS THE FUNDAMENTAL ASSUMPTION IN THIS KIND OF ENVIRONMENTLISM AND THIS IMAGE OF THE WORLD IS BIBLICAL. THIS IS WHY WE FIND BAMBI ENVIRONMENTALISM IN SOCIETIES WITH A CHRISTIANITY CULTURE

Bambi Turns 75! Take a Deeper Look at the Film's Impact on Animation, Risk  Taking and the Loss of a Parent

The Disney movie Bambi gave rise to what is known as the Bambi Principle in environmentalism. It extended the concept of environmentalism, as in do no harm, to a role of humans as caretaker of nature. The following article explains how Bambi did that. It is provided by Arizona State University: LINK: https://www.zocalopublicsquare.org/2016/04/19/how-bambi-hoodwinked-american-environmentalists-2/ideas/nexus/ (edited and abbreviated)

Disney เดินหน้าพัฒนาโพรเจกต์ Bambi เวอร์ชันภาพยนตร์ : ได้มือเขียนบท Captain  Marvel มาร่วมทีม | #beartai
  1. A man who had gone deer hunting and a number of does strolled from the woods into the meadow. Joe tried to pick out the fattest doe to shoot but his wife was overcome with the Bambi image she remembered from the movie and it brought her to tears. The hunt was abandoned. These contradictory responses derive from the lingering power of of the Bambi principle – a 1942 Disney cartoon about that big-eyed fawn, so cute that even 74 years later, Bambi still animates debates over animal rights and environmentalism such that saving Bambi has now been extended to saving the planet.
  2. Bambi didn’t start as an American environmental fable. It recounts the story of a fawn who grows up to be the prince of the forest alongside his royal father. But his rise to power comes only after the death of his mother and near loss of his mate Faline. While hunters and predatory animals are a problem for these deer, in the forest, owls eat mice, crows eat a friendly rabbit, and a fox eats a duck but these images are antithetical to the Bambi Principle of environmentalism. Early reviewers had thought that Bambi was anti-fascist fable and recent writers thought that the story was an allegory about the plight of the Jews in Europe.
  3. By 1942, when Disney released the film, Americans were processing their shock at the attack on Pearl Harbor and our entrance into a world war, which is reflected in the film’s simplified portrayal of deer living in an idealized forest where predators and prey play together and fear only a shadowy character called “Man,” who is equipped with guns and fire.
The Surprisingly Relevant Legacy Of 'Bambi' 75 Years Later
  1. The emotional punch of Bambi is heightened by the artistry, which combines gorgeous natural realism with cartoonish animals, their exceptionally large heads, small noses, and wide eyes resembling human children. Disney gave Bambi playful friends like the rabbit Thumper and the skunk Flower, in contrast to the more melancholy, quarrelsome animals of the book. Even though these cartoon animals frolic to the tune of “Little April Shower,” Disney paid special attention to the details of the forest, sending artists to sketch foliage in Baxter State Park and shipping two fawns to the studio as artist’s models. This uncanny mix of cuteness and terror and fantasy and realism has led some to call it a horror film.

When it was released the Bambi movie was surprisingly controversial. Hunters saw it as an ideological threat. Outdoor Life editor Raymond J. Brown called the film “the worst insult ever offered in any form to American sportsmen,” and even asked Disney to correct slurs against hunters. Disney said that sportsmen were not the target because Salten’s story was about German hunters.

Bambi had fans too. In a July 1942 issue of Audubon Magazine, naturalist Donald Culross Peattie “hotly denies” that Bambi “misrepresented anything.” That same year the National Audubon Society compared the cartoon’s consciousness-raising power for the environment to what Uncle Tom’s Cabin did for the abolition of slavery. New York Times reviewer Theodore Strauss claimed Disney films “teach us variously about having a fundamental respect for nature. Bambi inspired conservation awareness and laid the emotional groundwork for environmental activism.

The Latest Release of 'Bambi' Brings the Film to Life in a Whole New Way -  The Mickey Mindset

When it was first released, Bambi lost money, but subsequent re-releases in theatres and video rentals brought in close to $300 million by 1988 as the film had become a rite of childhood. And over the years that “emotional groundwork,” took hold in the form of “The Bambi Factor, or The Bambi Principle” a sentimental anthropomorphized view of wildlife.

One of the first people bitten by the Bambi Factor was environmentalist Aldo Leopold. In 1943, Leopold encouraged Wisconsin to institute an antlerless deer season that would have allowed hunters to shoot does and young bucks to thin the overpopulated herd. Leopold was interested in the good of all life as part of an ecosystem, not just special animals. In his Sand County Almanac, Leopold extends ethics to include nonhuman animals, as well as the plant life that sustains them. For the new converted Leopold the Bambi Principle holds that “the individual is a member of a community of interdependent parts, and those parts include all elements of the natural environment, from soil and plants to “Bambi.”

A graduate of the Yale forestry school, Leopold promoted game management, evolutionary biology, and ecology, rather than sentimental anthropomorphism. To maintain a diverse ecology, Leopold supported regulated sport hunting, including shooting a limited number of Wisconsin’s does with the aim of keeping the herd size smaller. But his Wisconsin proposal was shot down—the public, according to scholar Ralph H. Lutts, was outraged at the idea of culling any of Bambi’s child-like creatures.

Frank Churchill, Larry Morey - Bambi (An Original Walt Disney Records  Soundtrack) - Amazon.com Music

There is another environmental ideology hidden in Bambi that’s at odds with reality. Bambi’s underlying message is that Man and deer can’t co-exist. Of all the creatures in the movie, only the humans disrupt the pristine view of nature. “Why did we all run?” Bambi asks after a gun shot sounds. “Man was in the forest,” his mother replies. A later gunshot is the end of Bambi’s mother, hiding the violence that is heightened by her absence. Other hunters go on a chilling rampage, wounding Bambi and causing a final eco-disaster when their campfire explodes and burns down the forest destroying the animals’ home. The fire effects light the scene in oranges and reds, in the spirit of the “Burning of Atlanta” scene in Gone with the Wind. In the context of Disney’s film version of Bambi, humans and their vicious dogs are evil shadowy harbingers of death destroying an idealized paradise.

Bambi- The Fire Scene - YouTube

In the movie, the forest is presented as a kind of idealized human-free world where nature can frolic. Unless humans arrive, animals of all species live without fear in a “paradise” untouched by human hands where even owls have morphed into vegetarians. Here all interaction with humans, and only with humans, end in death or suffering. There is a complete separation of nature into two worlds – humans and humanless nature. The big issue in modern environmentalism is that it has been extended into the Anthropocene, described as a paradise lost where humans have seized control of nature and of the planet. This construct of environmentalism is one where Bambi played a role. The modern concept of an ecosystem is that it does not contain humans but that it must be managed by humans. This view is in contrast with the earlier movie Mr Bug Goes to Town that presents a peaceful coexistence between man and beast. Despite the anthropomorphism in the movie, Mr. Bug’s focus on interdependence presents a more realistic view than a world separated into the natural world that needs taking care of and the unnatural world of humans that must take care of the natural world.

MrBug3

Bambi lovers want to protect the deer even when the deer are sick. As recently as 2012, naturalist Valerie Blaine blamed the Bambi Principle for the North Rutland Deer Alliance’s opposition to killing deer even to test for chronic wasting disease. The Bambi Principle encourages sentimentalized and unrealistic views of wildlife that romanticize nature. With its vast and varied ecologies. Bambi presents us with a powerful but flawed vision of nature that draws a line between us the unnatural creatures that must nonetheless take care of nature and them, the humanless nature that needs taking care of. This self image of humans is likely derived from scripture as described in a related post: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/23/apocalyptic-environmentalism-and-climate-change/ . Instead of looking for a paradise that separates us from wild nature, we need to find a new vision where we are part of nature.

Mr. Bug" and "Hoppity" Go To Town -

The Climate Crisis Is Mind-Boggling. That's Why We Need Science Fiction. -  In These Times

ALARM#1: Governments urged to go beyond net zero climate targets
Leading scientists and campaigners say cutting emissions alone is not enough
. THE GUARDIAN: LINK: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/13/governments-urged-to-go-beyond-net-zero-climate-targets

Leading scientists, academics and campaigners have called on governments and businesses to go beyond “net zero” in their efforts to tackle the escalating climate and ecological crisis. The former archbishop of Canterbury Rowan Williams and the leading climate scientist Michael Mann are among a group of prominent environmentalists calling for the “restoration of the climate” by removing “huge amounts of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere”. Net zero targets have been a focus of governments, local authorities and campaigners in their attempts to address global heating. Although stopping emissions is “a necessary prerequisite”, governments and businesses must be more ambitious and work to “restore the climate” to as safe a level as possible. The climate crisis is here now. No matter how quickly we reach zero emissions, the terrible impacts of the climate crisis will not just go away … As such, no matter how quickly it is done, solely cutting emissions is not enough. The idea of removing emissions from the atmosphere – either directly from the air or by capturing it from power plants – has been a strongly debated subject among environmentalists and engineers for years. Critics point out that it has proved difficult to replicate the technology at scale and that constructing the necessary machinery would itself be environmentally damaging. Many fear that the idea of carbon capture is a “technological fix” used as an excuse by corporations which are opposed to the radical changes needed to move to a zero-carbon economy. However, there is a growing body of evidence that natural solutions – protecting and restoring natural forests and habitats and allowing native trees to repopulate deforested land – could help remove large amounts of carbon. The letter, which is also signed by the Guardian columnist George Monbiot and several leading members of the global school climate strike movement, said their call for restoration was not about “promoting one specific removal technique, but supporting the basic aim of trying to restore the climate and urges activists to start including restoration in their campaigning. We urge governments and companies to start acting, not only to reach net zero as soon as possible, but to achieve restoration as well. And we urge every citizen to do what they can to make the dream of restoration a reality.

George Monbiot on U.K. Climate Emergency & the Need for Rebellion to  Prevent Ecological Apocalypse | Democracy Now!

RESPONSE TO ALARM#1: That achieving net zero is not enough and that we should go beyond that and use forest restoration to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is a contradiction. The term “NET ZERO” means that it is not necessary to reduce fossil fuels to zero emissions because the remaining fossil fuel emissions can be offset by human interventions in nature’s carbon cycle such that the net emissions of the industrial economy is zero on the emissions ledger. LINK TO RELATED POST ON NET ZERO: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/02/25/net-zero/

The other issue here is that eco whackos that oppose human interventions in nature at the same time assume that humans are the managers of nature and that therefore human interventions in nature are necessary to manage nature. As for the the change in language from GLOBAL WARMING to GLOBAL HEATING, kindly note that that the word HEAT is used in climatology only to describe a rise in temperature of 4C above long term averages and climate scientists say that so far global warming has caused a warming of 1C above pre-industrial although they are not sure exactly when pre-industrial is. LINK TO RELATED POST : https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/12/25/earth-day-wisdom/

If the weather in England is bothering you, come on down to Thailand where the weather is just fine as you can see in the image below.

Cow And Sugar Palm At Phetchaburi Thailand Stock Photo - Download Image Now  - iStock

ALARM#2: TVO.ORG: What these 58 Ontario lakes can teach us about climate change: LINK: https://www.tvo.org/article/what-these-58-ontario-lakes-can-teach-us-about-climate-change

Scott Higgins, a scientist with the Experimental Lakes Area, has data on what a 50 years of research reveals about climate change. Published on Sep 16, 2019. He is part of International Institute for Sustainable Development. TVO.ORG says that they are doing this story to strengthen coverage of the climate.​​​​​​​ Between Kenora and Dryden, there are 58 small lakes set aside exclusively for scientific research. Called the Experimental Lakes Area — and, since 2014, managed by the International Institute for Sustainable Development — the region has been the subject of scientific examination since 1968. The IISD calls the lakes “the world’s freshwater laboratory” and “one of the only places” on Earth where researchers can conduct experiments on entire ecosystems. Scientists introduce species and other variables to the waters and study everything from algal blooms to mercury poisoning to oil spills. The program serves as an invaluable resource for scientists studying climate change. Using a half-century of rigorous data, IISD researchers have found that the higher temperatures and increased precipitation associated with climate change are affecting northern Ontario’s lakes and watersheds. How does the ELA ensure that the data it collects is accurate and useful? Whenever you do an experiment in a lab — or, in our case, in the natural environment — you need references or controls. So they set aside a number of lakes to be “reference lakes,” where no manipulations were done. When we’re understanding the impacts of climate, what we’re doing is using five lakes that haven’t been manipulated but that we’ve monitored very intensively. They weren’t designed to monitor climate change, but, over 50 years, the data we’ve created and the intensity of that data have made those data sets incredibly useful. We have an onsite meteorological station, which we’ve operated with Environment Canada since 1969, where we get all the standard meteorological data, and it’s within the watershed of one of our lakes, so it’s less than a kilometre away from our reference lakes. There, we get air temperatures, rainfall, barometric pressure, solar radiance, wind speeds, and the nutrients that are in the rain. You point out that, in the region more broadly, air temperature is rising five times faster than the global average. How has that affected the ELA?
The surprising thing to me and to many when we look at the data is when you hear air temperatures are increasing, we make the unconscious assumption that it’s evenly distributed across the seasons. What the data says is that the winter’s warming much, much faster than the summer is. In our data, the summer isn’t even significantly increasing. I suspect that, over time, the summers will become significantly warmer, but the big changes are occurring in the winter and the shoulder seasons. December, for example, was increasing by over a degree per decade — so, much faster than the mean trends. Right now, it affects the phenology of the ice. When the ice forms in the fall and when it melts in the spring, those dates are significantly changing. The period of ice cover is shortening dramatically. ELA research shows that average annual precipitation has increased by 19.1 millimetres per decade since 1970. What impact has that had? The big story is that we’re seeing more dissolved organic carbon coming off the watersheds in the wetlands and moving into these lakes. Dissolved organic carbon stains the water a tea colour from the acids that are associated with wetlands and these soils. As more DOC comes into the lake, you lose transparency. That’s when you step into a lake and you can’t see your feet after the first foot or two in the water. That affects things that depend on light to grow, like plants, and those are the base of the food web. We’ve looked at the whole range of lakes in the region — the clear lakes and the really dark lakes — and asked how it affected the physical properties and the chemical properties. In our darkest lakes, plants can only grow in the top four to five metres, but, in our clearest lakes, they can grow down to 20 metres or more, so you lose three-quarters of your habitat in that range. We have a study that’s just wrapping up right now. Essentially, what they’re finding is that the changes in dissolved organic matter have a strong impact over primary production, which is plant growth: the base of the food web. Climate change is making our watersheds more sensitive to land use, so, as we move into the future, we’re really going to have to think about how we manage and use these watersheds appropriately, because it can lead to these very costly issues around algae blooms. The City of Winnipeg is talking about spending upwards of $1.4 billion on upgrading its north-end sewage-treatment plant. The main purpose is to reduce these algal blooms in lake Winnipeg. You’ve noticed that lake trout are shrinking in size as their habitat changes. Can you explain why that’s happening? We think it’s related not to the changes in surface-water temperatures, because, remember, our summer air temperatures haven’t changed very much. But what has changed is that the summer period has gotten longer — what we call the “summer starvation period” for lake trout. Lake trout feed intensively in the spring and fall when water temperatures are mesothermal — they’re the same from top to bottom because it’s mixing. As the summer gets longer, that summer starvation period gets longer. Then the thermocline [the water temperature gradient] starts to deepen over time, and this anoxic zone [an area uninhabitable because of low oxygen levels] at the bottom of these lakes creeps up. Habitat becomes unavailable for lake trout. And, if the summer gets longer and longer, the higher temperature and the lower oxygen will overlap, so there will be no optimum habitat for lake trout. What lake trout have to do is decide, “Am I going to live in a sub-optimal oxygen habitat, or am I going to live in a sub-optimal temperature habitat?” No matter what they choose, there’s an impact on their metabolism, and growth rates will slow. We believe we’re seeing the first indications of that in the lake trout data. They’re getting shorter in length and skinnier in size. The ELA is in the southern section of the Boreal Shield Ecozone, which stretches from Saskatchewan to Newfoundland. What do your findings tell us about the ecozone as a whole? Boreal lakes are both carbon sinks and carbon emitters. It’s the biggest ecozone on the planet, so it plays an important role in the global carbon balance. We talked about how increases in rainfall push dissolved organic carbon from wetlands into the lake. Once that carbon goes into the lake, some of that carbon sinks to the bottom and becomes permanently buried in the sediments. That’s how lakes are carbon sinks. But a portion of that carbon gets worked over by bacteria and respired up to the atmosphere, so that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas that contributes to global warming in a positive feedback loop. More rainfall means more carbon-dioxide emissions from lakes, even though lakes are net carbon sinks. As Canada moves forward to reduce its carbon emissions to do its part in reducing climate change, what happens in the boreal zone is also really important because it could dwarf all those efforts. We need to be able to model how carbon fluxes in the boreal forest. That’s important to every Canadian and everyone around the planet,

RESPONSE TO ALARM#2: The region under study is about 20,000 square kilometers at about 50 degrees north latitude. In terms of the area, this region represents 0.0037% of the land area of the earth and about 0.0011% of the total area of the earth. The geographical limitations of this study make it impossible to relate the findings to global warming because it is known under such geographical limitations, Internal Climate Variability (ICV) makes it impossible to detect global warming because “Internal variability in the climate system confounds assessment of human-induced climate change and imposes irreducible limits on the accuracy of climate change projections”. The ICV issue is described in detail in a related post on this site: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/07/16/the-internal-variability-issue/ .

Yet another issue with this research is the methodology used in which the researcher looks for things that have changed and assumes that the change must have been caused by anthropogenic global warming. Such causation cannot be assumed, they must be established by he data and critical evaluation of the data with the null hypothesis that the observed changes are natural. Such standard research procedures are absent in this study.

A third issue is that the IISD (International Institute for Sustainable Development) is a UN organization and part of the UN’s SDG program (Sustainable Development Goals) that is part and parcel of the UN’s climate change and climate action program. The SDG is an entirely bureaucratic tool as described in these related posts: LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/03/06/sdg/ LINK#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/03/18/the-eco-crisis-ambition-of-the-un/ . That the Canadian research project is part of the SDG program is not serve to validate its scientific credentials.

I remember we used to travel to Dryden and Kenora to go to the dentist  (1960 or so). "Map with driving directions. Note all … | Lake hudson, Eagle  lake, Pine island

ALARM#3: GUARDIAN: LINK: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/12/climate-crisis-campaigns-pledge-real-change

Why the green movement can overcome climate crisis

Leaded petrol, acid rain, CFCs … the last 50 years of environmental action have shown how civil society can force governments and business to change. “Leaflets printed on grotty blue paper” is how Janet Alty describes the successful campaign against leaded gasoline. In the late 1970s, the UK was still poisoning the air with leaded gasoline despite clear scientific evidence that breathing in lead-tainted air from car exhausts has detrimental effects on development and intelligence. Lead had been phased out in the US from 1975 for these reasons. In the UK, the anti lead campaign amassed a trove of scientific papers to support their cause and finally after months of an agitated citizens uprising against leaded gasoline the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution prompted the UK government to decree that both petrol stations and manufacturers must offer lead-free alternatives. Leaded petrol was finally removed from the last petrol pumps in the UK in 1999. This success in the environmental movement provides the evidence that the movement against climate change will also succeed.
Faced with multiplying, and interlinked, environmental crises in the 2020s – the climate emergency, the sixth extinction stalking the natural world, the plastic scourge in our oceans, the polluted air of teeming metropolises – it is easy to feel overwhelmed. The Covid Lockdown offered a tantalising glimpse of a cleaner world, but also revealed a starker truth: that the global economy is not set up to prioritise wellbeing, climate and nature. It is easy to forget that environmentalism is arguably the most successful citizens’ mass movement there has been. Environmental activists have transformed the modern world in ways we now take for granted. The ozone hole has shrunk. Whales, if not saved, at least enjoy a moratorium on hunting. Acid rain is no longer the scourge of forests and lakes. Rivers thick with pollution in the 1960s teem with fish. Who remembers that less than 30 years ago, nuclear tests were still taking place in the Pacific? Greenpeace’s Rainbow Warrior ship was blown up by the French government in 1985, with one death and many injuries, in a long-running protest. These victories contain important lessons. We’ve had so many campaigns and wins. Sometimes it’s been hard to claim success, and sometimes it takes a long time. And sometimes things that worked before won’t work now.

THE ACID RAIN PROGRAM OF THE EPA: Acid rain, first identified in the 1850s, took decades to address. The first murmurings of concern came about after the second world war and there were concerted efforts to solve it in the 1960s. The acid rain success story shows that global environmental movement can succeed. Acid rain occurs when sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides react with moist air to form weak acids, which then fall from clouds, killing plants and aquatic life. The scars can still be seen in parts of the US and northern Europe, where acid has etched limestone building facades, and faces have dissolved from statues. But in most of the world – except China, where the problem persists – the lifeless lakes and leafless trees that acid rain created have long since revived. Public pressure in the worst-offending countries – chiefly the US and the UK, which were responsible for acid rain that fell largely on neighbouring countries such as Canada and Scandinavia – was key. Watson recalls one telling advertising campaign: posters printed on litmus paper that said: “When acid rain is falling, you should see red” – offering a vivid illustration of the problem. Getting businesses to cooperate was a different matter. In the US, that was achieved through a novel mechanism that offered financial incentives from rivals, rather than the public purse. It was the first successful demonstration of a market-based approach. says Keohane. US power plant operators were issued with a limited number of allowances for how much sulphur and nitrogen oxides they could emit. They could buy and sell these among themselves, meaning the dirtiest companies had to buy them from those who cleaned up fastest, while the number of allowances available was gradually reduced. This cap-and-trade system operated successfully from 1990, becoming the model for a similar approach to greenhouse gases under the 1997 Kyoto protocol – though that attempt was less successful, because the US rejected it. The benefits were 40 times greater than the costs. There was an 86% reduction in pollutants, from 1990 to 2015, and there were huge unappreciated benefits beyond acid rain, on cleaning up particulates. What acid rain showed is that businesses can be successfully regulated, without causing economic damage. As with the campaign against lead, companies resisted new rules for years, but when they came, they responded swiftly, showing governments they could afford to be less timid. When we need to act, we can. There are also lessons for today’s campaigners. Climate change threatens to melt the ice caps, raise sea levels, destroy agriculture over swaths of the world, and is already causing humanitarian disasters. Time is short. But a lesson from 40 years ago shows the world can move quickly and decisively if it has to.

Pin on Science

THE OZONE DEPLETION PROGRAM OF THE UN:

About 15-35km above the surface of the Earth, the ozone layer acts as a filter against the sun’s radiation, blocking about 97% to 99% of medium-frequency ultraviolet light. That is important, because over-exposure to ultraviolet radiation is harmful to most living things, including plants and animals, and causes skin cancers, eye problems and genetic damage in humans. In 1974 came the first indications that all was not well in the lower stratosphere. Research by Mario Molina, who died last week, and Sherwood Rowland, both later awarded Nobel prizes, found that chemicals called chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), commonly used as propellants in aerosols, were likely to be reacting with the ozone and depleting it. The first moves against CFCs were in the US, Canada, Sweden and a few other countries in 1978, but others hung back, as chemical companies dismissed the fears as theoretical. Then, in 1985, the British Antarctic Survey published clear evidence of damage, in the form of a patch of drastically thinned ozone across the south pole. Their measurements showed 40% less ozone than had been detected 20 years earlier. The science was indisputable. The world moved quickly. Governments got together under the aegis of the UN and forged the Montreal Protocol in 1987, which phased out ozone-depleting chemicals globally. “The Montreal protocol is the best environment treaty the world has ever created. {CITATION: Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development}. “It solved the first great threat to the atmosphere, and put the ozone layer on the path to recovery by 2065. There’s very strong empirical evidence that it has done its job. When the Montreal protocol was signed, the world was rapidly approaching a precipice. The further the ozone depleted, the less likely it was to regenerate naturally. If the damage continued beyond a certain point, recovery and natural repair would have become virtually impossible, even if production of the harmful chemicals ceased. “It would have been beyond repair in about five or 10 years if we had not acted. The Montreal protocol shows, as the response to Covid-19 demonstrated, that the world can move quickly when governments want to. If a government needs to act, and Covid has shown this, my God can a government act. When we need to act, we can.

A key factor in the Montreal protocol and its success was making the economic case for action. When it came to ozone-depleting chemicals, the chemical companies found they could manufacture substitutes – and make more money doing so. Car companies made a similar calculation on lead in petrol, and US power plants had the incentives of cap-and-trade to halt acid rain. Today, a comparable economic shift has already happened in the field of climate action: renewable energy is cheaper in many countries than coal, gas and oil, and costs are likely to fall further. But some companies with fossil fuels to sell will still be left stranded, and corporate vested interests have not gone away. Fake news is everywhere. Disinformation from rightwing thinktanks on air pollution and climate change is all over the internet. And the media landscape has shifted to the right. One of the most striking aspects of successful environmental campaigns of the past is how they straddled the left-right political divide. Key green legislation and decisions, including the Montreal Protocol and the 1992 UNFCCC were put forward and signed by leaders from across the political spectrum. This may be partly because world leaders in the past were more willing to listen to scientists than today. Margaret Thatcher got it, on the ozone layer – she was a chemist, she read the scientific papers. Ronald Reagan got it because he’d had skin cancer. But a changing political discourse in many countries, driven by a rightwing populism that has forsaken reality in favour of stoking imagined grievances, has created a harsher political environment for climate change. The opponents of climate action have learned that in a culture where people get their news from politically dominated outlets and the internet, they can get away with lying but younger people are rejecting these lies about climate change. Consensus across political divisions is possible if green campaigners focus on the outcome rather than the process and bring forward constructive ideas. Reaching out across divisions to foster a sense of community is essential. Emphasize what people have in common despite surface divisions. The environmental movement crosses barriers because we are all human on the same planet, and interdependent. The environment is a shared experience.

Montreal Protocol คืออะไร... - วิศวกรรมสิ่งแวดล้อม ม.เอเชียอาคเนย์ |  Facebook
What is Acid Rain? | Acid Rain | US EPA

RESPONSE: THE SUCCESS OF ENVIRONMENTALISM AGAINST LEADED GASOLINE AND ACID RAIN. In a related post: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/03/30/the-humans-must-save-the-planet/ we note that “The rapid industrial and economic growth in the post-war era progressed mostly without adequate safeguards against environmental degradation. This situation became sensationalized through a series of high profile events that captured public attention. The wanton use of pesticides such as DDT was blamed for killing butterflies and birds (Carson, 1962). The explosive growth in automobile ownership shrouded large cities like Los Angeles and New York in smog (Gardner, 2014) (Haagen-Smit, 1952) (Hanst, 1967). The widespread dumping of industrial waste into lakes and rivers was highlighted by events such as the fire in the Cuyahoga River (Marris, 2011) (Goldberg, 1979). The hippie counter-culture movement of the 1960s rejected conventional values in particular, the assumed primacy of technological advancement and industrial economic growth. It opposed the unrestricted use of pesticides, herbicides, preservatives, food additives, fertilizers, and other synthetic chemicals. It fought against the release of industrial waste into the atmosphere and into waterways, the harvesting of old growth forests for the wood and paper industries, and the inadequacy of public transit that could limit the number of automobiles in big cities and the air pollution they cause (Rome, 2003) (Zelko, 2013).

This environmental movement was the driving force behind the formation of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in the USA which was given the laws, the ways, the means, and the power to act quickly and decisively to clean up the air and water (Ruckelshaus, 1984). The EPA cleaned up the air and the water in the USA with strictly enforced new laws and procedures that limited the concentration of harmful chemicals in all industrial effluents and also required all new enterprises to obtain the approval of the EPA of their environmental impact before they could proceed. The remarkable success of the EPA made it a model for environmental law and environmental protection in countries around the world (Ruckelshaus, 1984) (Andreen, 2004) (Dolin, 2008).

THE EXTENSION OF ENVIRONMENTALISM TO THE BAMBI PRINCIPLE Environmentalism in its conceptual sense is the idea that humans should take care of the environment for their own good such that human life, health, and security are enhanced. This idea is contained in the original hippie environmental wisdom that if you shit in bed you will sleep in shit. At some point, the enthusiasm of environmentalism became separated from this fundamental reality and the conceptual underpinnings of environmentalism was arbitrarily extended in a spirit of emotional enthusiasm into the The Bambi Principle in which the concept of environmentalism is extended to a role of humans not as part of nature but as caretakers of nature. RELATED POST ON BAMBI: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/15/the-bambi-principle/

Global environmentalism: It was found that industrial waste in rivers draining into the ocean ,ay have detrimental effects on oceanic biota and chemistry. It was thus that the “environment” to be taken care of became extended beyond national boundaries in the context of the role of man as nature’s manager and keeper. Environmentalism now meant more than man making sure his environment will sustain him. It meant that man was now in charge of nature. This is the conceptual bridge that when extended to the planetary scale led to the idea of the Anthropocene that gave man a godlike role on the planet earth.

Our First Look Back at Earth | Daily Planet | Air & Space Magazine

THE EXTENSION OF ENVIRONMENTALISM TO THE PLANETARY SCALE:

Late in the year 1972 the first picture of the planet was taken from space and flashed on TV screens around the world. THIS WAS A TRANSFORMATIONAL EVENT IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL MOVEMENT.

The picture was taken by the crew of the Apollo-9 space craft. This image created an overwhelming sense of awe as well as a sense of insecurity to see the finite little thing that we live on that had seemed so infinitely big as viewed from the surface. This image caused a profound change in environmentalism such that our “environment” became redefined as the planet itself and the “environment” of environmentalism underwent a grand and dramatic change. In the new planetary context of environmentalism, our environment is the same wherever we are and it is the whole of the planet. For example, the environment I live in is not just the rice fields and sugar palms you see in the picture below, but the whole of the planet earth.

sugarpalms

THE RISE OF PLANETARY ENVIRONMENTALISM This image from space encouraged environmentalists to look at wider impacts of pollution and they quickly learned that both water pollution carried by rivers to the ocean and air pollution anywhere on earth have a reach much larger than they had imagined. For example ocean pollution in Southeastern USA could be carried by ocean currents thousands of miles away where it could have a detrimental impact. And air pollution in Corsica could affect air quality in Athens; and environmentalist James Lovelock found long lived chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) compounds used in refrigerants and hairspray in the atmosphere in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. Soon thereafter, environmental scientists Sherwood Rowland and Mario Molina of UC Irvine proposed a theory that the long life of CFC discovered by Lovelock implies that these chemicals could eventually end up in the stratosphere where they could act as catalytic agents of ozone destruction. This was a global environmental issue and not the regime of any specific nation state.

The United Nations entered the scene to take charge of global environmental issues by forming the United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) and immediately went to work on the global environmental problem of ozone depletion implied by the works of Sherwood Rowland and Mario Molina with empirical evidence of ozone depletion published in the Farman etal 1985 paper. LINK TO UNEP GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTALISM: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/03/18/the-eco-crisis-ambition-of-the-un/

THE ANALYSIS PRESENTED ABOVE SHOWS THAT THE 1960S ENVIRONMENGTALISM THAT HELPED TO UNDO THE POLLUTION OF THE POST WAR ECONOMIC BOOM AND TO CREATE THE EPA AND ITS RATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY FOR THE INDUSTRIAL ECONOMY CANNOT BE COMPARED WITH THE GLOBAL OZONE AND CLIMATE MOVEMENTS OF THE UN. THEREFORE, THE SUCCESS OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL MOVEMENTS AGAINST THE UNLEADED PETROL AND ACID RAIN HAVE NO IMPLICATION FOR THE CLIMATE CHANGE MOVEMENT. THESE CITED SUCCESSES WERE AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL WITH THE ISSUES FRAMED IN TERMS OF NATIONAL HEALTH AND WELL BEING AND MANAGED BY NATIONAL ELECTED GOVERNMENTS AND JUDICIARY WITH THE NECESSARY LEGAL AND GOVERNANCE INFRASTRUCTURE AND ACCOUNTABILITY TO THE GOVERNED TO MAKE THE REQUIRED CHANGES. IN THIS ENVIRONMENTALISM, THERE WAS NO BAMBI PRINCIPLE, NO GLOBAL ASPIRATION, NO ANTHROPOCENE, AND NO SEPARATION OF HUMANS FROM NATURE AS A WAY OF IMPOSING HUMANS AS THE MANAGERS AND CARETAKERS OF THE PLANET. IT WAS PART OF NATIONAL GOVERNANCE WITH A WELL DEVELOPED LEGAL, POLITICAL, AND GOVERNANCE INFRASTRUCURE TO SERVE THE NEEDS OF THE CITIZENS AND TAX PAYERS. WHERE POLLUTION ISSUES WENT ACROSS NATIONAL BOUNDARIES, THEY WERE RESOLVED WITH SPECIFIC POLLUTION ABATEMENT TREATIES BETWEEN THE GOVERNMENTS INVOLVED.

BY WAY OF CONTRAST, THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTALISM OF THE UN OPERATES IN A LEGAL AND GOVERNANCE VACCUUM AND AN ACCOUNTABILITY VACCUUM AS DESCRIBED IN A RELATED POST: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/02/25/un/

AS FOR THE SUCCESS OF THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL, WE FIND THAT IT HAS NO IMPLICATION FOR CLIMATE ACTION BECAUSE OF THE VAST DIFFERENCE IN THE COST OF COMPLIANCE. SUCCESS OF THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL IS BEST UNDERSTOOD IN TERMS OF THE RELATIVE EASE OF COMPLIANCE COMPARED WITH CLIMATE ACTION. THE COST OF COMPLIANCE OF TENS OF BILLIONS OF USD FOR THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL (WITH SIGNIFICANT FOREIGN AID FROM THE RICH COUNTRIES TO THE POOR) IS A PITTANCE COMPARED WITH THE MANY TRILLIONS ESTIMATED FOR CLIMATE ACTION WITH UNCERTAINTIES SO LARGE THAT THE UNITED NATIONS ADMITS THAT IT DOES NOT KNOW HOW HIGH THAT COST COULD GO: LINK TO SOURCE: https://www.oecd.org/env/cc/2482300.pdf

THEREFORE, THE ARGUMENT THAT THE CLIMATE MOVEMENT SHOULD SUCCEED BECAUSE THE UNLEADED GASOLINE PROGRAM AND THE ACID RAIN PROGRAM DID AND BECAUSE THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL WAS A SUCCESS IS NOT VALID BECAUSE IT OVERLOOKS IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THESE ISSUES.

POSTSCRIPT ON THE OZONE DEPLETION ISSUE AND THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL. In related posts on this site, we show some serious issues in the ozone depletion crisis and the apparent success of the Montreal Protocol. Here are the links to the relevant posts on this site:

LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/08/07/history-of-the-ozone-depletion-scare/ The history of ozone depletion agitation by environmentalists predates Rowland and Molina by decades. It is a very old environmental issue that had tried and failed multiple times at the national level in the USA and in other countries but succeeded in 1987 when the issue was globalized with the UN and its newly formed UNEP in charge.

LINK#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/03/12/ozone1966-2015/ . To this day, the only empirical evidence of ozone depletion as described by Rowland and Molina, is the Farman etal 1985 paper. In this post we point out serious errors in the Farman paper. These errors invalidate the findings. Therefore, to this day, we have no empirical evidence of ozone depletion. Excerpt: ” The overall structure of changes in total column ozone in time and across latitudes shows that the data from the two stations in Antarctica prior to 1985 are unique and specific to that time and place. They cannot be generalized into a global pattern of ozone depletion. Here we show that declining levels of total column ozone in Antarctica during the months of October and November prior to 1985 do not serve as empirical evidence that can be taken as validation of the Rowland-Molina theory of chemical ozone depletion. The chemical theory implies that ozone depletion must be assessed across the full range of latitudes and over a much longer time span than what is found in Farman etal 1985 which serves as the sole basis for the ozone depletion hypothesis that led to the Montreal Protocol and the ascendance of the UN as a global environmental authority.

LINK#3: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/04/the-ozone-hole-of-2020/ Excerpt: Briefly, RMTOD is about long term trends in global mean total column ozone which forms only in the Tropics and which is distributed to the higher latitudes by the Brewer Dobson circulation and by other means. These distributions are volatile and variable. The variability increases sharply with latitude. Therefore the dynamics of ozone concentration at the most extreme possible latitude do not contain useful information about global mean total column ozone. Therefore, “ozone hole” data have no interpretation in terms of RMTOD.{RMTOD=Rowland Molina Theory of Ozone Depletion}

Large variability in South Polar ozone levels has no RMTOD interpretation and the description of brief periods of low ozone levels there as some kind of a hole that we need to worry about has no scientific or empirical basis and no implication in terms of RMTOD. IN CONCLUSION, IT APPEARS THAT THE OZONE DEPLETION ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUE AND ITS RESOLUTION WITH THE GLOBAL MONTREAL PROTOCOL IS A CASE OF ESTABLISHING THE UN’S ROLE AS GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY BY FIRST IDENTIFYING A NON-EXISTENT PROBLEM AND THEN SIMPLY DECLARING IT SOLVED.

Scisnack | CFCs and Ozone: The Hole Story

10 years on from Hurricane Katrina: What have we learned? | Carbon Brief

A Quora question:

What is the impact of global warming on Hurricane frequency?

Answer:

Tropical cyclones in the West Pacific Basin are called Typhoons. Those in the North Atlantic Basin are called Hurricanes. In the other four cyclone basins, they are called Cyclones. There are six cyclone basins in all.

The theoretical impact of global warming on tropical cyclones derived from climate model simulations is summarized in a now famous paper called Knutson 2010. What Tom Knutson says in that paper is this: Global warming will impact tropical cyclones by way of higher sea surface temperature that will provide a greater amount of energy to the cyclones.

Long term trends in the total cyclone energy for all six cyclone basins should therefore show a rising trend over time scales of more than 30 years. Total cyclone energy can go up two ways – the number of cyclones that form can go up or the average energy per cyclone can go up or both. Knutson says it’s mostly the latter, that is global warming will make the average cyclone energy of all cyclones in all six basins higher and higher.

The the only thing you can test for is the long term trend in total cyclone energy. There is no testable implication for individual basins such as the North Atlantic where Hurricanes form. And there is no testable implication for frequency alone because intensity must also be taken into account for total cyclone energy.

Therefore, in answer to your question, climate science does not have any way to relate only the frequency of tropical cyclones in only the North Atlantic Basin (where tropical cyclones are called Hurricanes), to global warming. For more info lease see:

Tropical Cyclones and SST

Thomas Knutson

Earth has 'now reached 9 climate change tipping points' as top scientists  warn of 'domino effect' catastrophe

A PHYS.ORG ARTICLE EXPLAINS THE NON-RESPONSIVENESS OF CLIMATE CHANGE TO COVID INDUCED EMISSION REDUCTION IN TERMS OF THE TIPPING POINT AND CONCLUDES THAT CLIMATE CHANGE HAS REACHED A TIPPING POINT AND IS NO LONGER RESPONSIVE TO CLIMATE ACTION BECAUSE NATURAL FEEDBACKS ARE NOW THE PRIMARY FORCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE: LINK: https://phys.org/news/2020-11-greenhouse-gas-emissions-global.html

Tipping points

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF THE PHYS.ORG ARTICLE AND SIMILAR REPORTS IN THE MEDIA THAT HAVE INTERPRETED THE NON-RESPONSIVENESS OF THE CLIMATE TO THE COVID INDUCED EMISSION REDUCTION IN TERMS OF A FEEDBACK INDUCED TIPPING POINT WHERE EMISSIONS NO LONGER MATTER AND THEREFORE CLIMATE ACTION IS NO LONGER EFFECTIVE BECAUSE THE CLIMATE IS NOW OUT OF HUMAN HANDS.

Climate change and coronavirus: Five charts about the biggest carbon crash

PART-1: WHAT THE PHYS.ORG ARTICLE SAYS

Ending greenhouse gas emissions may not stop global warming. Even if humanity stopped emitting greenhouse gases tomorrow, Earth will warm for centuries to come and oceans will rise by metres, according to a controversial modelling study published Thursday. Natural drivers of global warming—more heat-trapping clouds, thawing permafrost, and shrinking sea ice—already set in motion by carbon pollution will take on their own momentum, researchers from Norway reported in the Nature journal Scientific Reports. Jorgen Randers says: “”According to our models, humanity is beyond the point-of-no-return when it comes to halting the melting of permafrost using greenhouse gas cuts as the single tool.

Jorgen Randers – Exclusive Speaker, The Insight Bureau

If we want to stop permafrost melting we must do something in addition to emission reduction and that is to suck CO2 out of the atmosphere and store it underground, and make Earth’s surface brighter to reflect light. Using a stripped-down climate model, Jorgen Randers and Ulrich Goluke projected changes out to the year 2500 under two scenarios: the instant cessation of emissions, and the gradual reduction of planet warming gases to zero by 2100. The projected warming since pre-industrial for instant cessation is 2.3C above pre-industrial. The projected warming for gradual emission reduction is a collapse of civilization described as “the earth warms up to levels that would tear the fabric of civilization”.

Several thresholds, or “tipping points”, in Earth’s climate system have already been crossed, triggering a self-perpetuating process of warming, as has happened millions of years in the past. One of these drivers is the rapid retreat of sea ice in the Arctic. Millions of square kilometres of reflective snow and ice been replaced in summer by open ocean, which absorbs the same of the incident solar radiation. Another source is the thawing of permafrost, which holds twice as much carbon as there is in the atmosphere. The third is increasing amounts of water vapour, which also has a warming effect.

Scenarios For Sustainability | Ulrich Golüke - YouTube

RESPONSE BY CLIMATE SCIENTISTS

Met Office scientists receive prestigious Royal Meteorological Society  Awards | Met Office | Official Press Release

Climate scientist Richard Betts has not reacted favorably to the Randers assessment. He doesn’t feel that the climate model used by Randers is credible. Even extreme climate activist and Anthropocene enthusiast Mark Maslin is hesitant to take Randers seriously saying that the ESCIMO climate model used by Randers can’t be taken seriously and that its results are at best a thought experiment and nothing more. The most favorable assessment by climate scientists is that the study does draw attention to the climate science position that reducing global carbon emissions to zero by 2050″—a goal championed by the UN and embraced by a growing number of countries—”is just the start of our actions to deal with climate change.” It is the needed beginning of climate action but just the beginning and not the end. In more sophisticated climate models used by the IPCC, we find that the Paris climate pact temperature goals cannot be reached unless massive amounts of CO2 are removed from the atmosphere perhaps by planting billions of trees. Experimental technologies have shown that sucking CO2 out of the air can be done mechanically, but so far not at the scale required.

THE CO2 THEORY OF EVERYTHING | Thongchai Thailand

PART-2: CRITICAL COMMENTARY

The issue in climate science described here by Randers etal is that the claimed impact of fossil fuels is hard to find in the data. It arises from the observation by the KARLSRUHER INSTITUT FÜR TECHNOLOGIE and others that the expected impact of emission reduction due to Covid lockdowns and the collapse of international air traffic is not found in the data. If the rise in atmospheric CO2 is really due to fossil fuel emissions as claimed by climate science, then the drop in emissions in the Covid era should show up in the CO2 data and therefore in the rate of warming – but no such response to emission reduction is found in the data for trends in rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and rising global mean surface temperature. This issue is discussed in some detail in a related post on this site with the difference that an annual time scale is used in the analysis as required by climate science; LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/09/23/emission-reduction-atmospheric-co2/

The Keeling Curve | A daily record of atmospheric carbon dioxide from  Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego

A possible explanation for this anomaly is provided in related posts on this site where annual time scales are used. These are as follows.

RELATED POST#1: Data for atmospheric CO2 concentration and fossil fuel emissions do not show that atmospheric composition is responsive to fossil fuel emissions at an annual time scale as assumed in climate science. Thus no evidence is found that the observed rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration is caused by fossil fuel emissions and that this rise can be attenuated by taking climate action in the form of reducing or eliminating the burning of fossil fuels. LINK#1: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/12/19/co2responsiveness/

RELATED POST#2: Data for annual change in atmospheric CO2 concentration and annual fossil fuel emissions do not show that these changes can be attributed to fossil fuel emissions as assumed in climate science. Thus no evidence is found that the observed annual changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration are caused by annual fossil fuel emissions or that that these changes can be attenuated by taking climate action in the form of reducing or eliminating the burning of fossil fuels. LINK#2: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/11/annual-changes-in-mlo-co2/

RELATED POSTS#3 & #4: Data for carbon cycle flows and fossil fuel flows are used to construct two different Monte Carlo simulations to determine whether the impact of fossil fuel emissions on atmospheric composition can be found in the data net of uncertainties in carbon cycle flows published by the IPCC. No evidence is found that fossil fuel emissions can be detected net of uncertainties in much larger carbon cycle flows. Monte Carlo Simulation #1: LINK#3: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/05/31/the-carbon-cycle-measurement-problem/ Monte Carlo Simulation #2: LINK#4: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/06/10/a-monte-carlo-simulation-of-the-carbon-cycle/

RELATED POST#5: The failure of the Covid reduction in fossil fuel emissions to affect the rate of atmospheric CO2 rise or the rate of warming noted by the KARLSRUHER INSTITUT is presented and analyzed in this related post: LINK#5: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/09/23/emission-reduction-atmospheric-co2/

RELATED POST#6: Natural geological flows of carbon that can change atmospheric composition are identified in this post and it is argued that until these flows can be quantified and their atmospheric impact assessed, the role of fossil fuel emissions in the determination of changes in atmospheric composition cannot be determined. LINK#6: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/08/27/carbonflows/

RELATED POST#7: That geological flows of carbon can make significant changes to atmospheric composition is seen in the paleo record where we find that an oxidation event in the deep ocean oxidized geological carbon and changed atmospheric composition. LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/03/20/an-atmosphere-bias-part-2/

Seeps Give a Peek Into Plumbing

CONCLUSION: We conclude from the analysis presented above that the discovery by Dr. Randers and others that the Covid reduction in fossil fuel emissions did not slow down the rate of change of the rise in atmospheric CO2 or of the rate of warming does not mean that human caused climate change has reached a tipping point where scary natural forces such as feedbacks have taken over but that it was natural to start with. The non-responsiveness of atmospheric CO2 to fossil fuel emissions implies that the current warming cycle of the Holocene is natural after all.

This interpretation of the Randers finding is the likely reason that climate scientists who have themselves preached the fear of tipping points in the past have expressed negative evaluations of it in this instance.

Fossil-fuel emissions unbraked by financial crisis

FOOTNOTE: IN CLIMATE SCIENCE, THE RESPONSIVENESS OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2 TO FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS IS ASSSESSED AT AN ANNUAL TIME SCALE. IT IS NOTED THAT THE COVID EMISSION REDUCTION PERIOD IS LESS THAN A YEAR. THE QUESTIONS RAISED BY BY THE KARLSRUHER INSTITUT AND OTHERS IN THIS REGARD DO NOT MEET THIS TIME SCALE REQUIREMENT.

The Last house of Sinking Chesapeake Bay Island | Coastal Care

ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE ALARMS OF 13 Nov 2020

SCITECHDAILY: LINK: https://scitechdaily.com/the-arctic-a-delicate-icy-ecosystem-video/CLAIM:  The Arctic: A Delicate Icy Ecosystem. EUROPEAN SPACE AGENCY (ESA) OCTOBER 7, 2020, The Arctic is one of the most rapidly changing regions in the world. Diminishing sea ice, thawing permafrost and melting glaciers are all direct effects of rising global temperatures – driven by human-made emissions. Learn more about how satellites flying 800 km above our heads can help us monitor and understand the changes occurring in this remote region. RESPONSE (1) That the Arctic is rapidly changing means only that you have found a region that is rapidly changing and not that it is a feature of rising global mean temperature that can and must be managed and controlled with human interference. (2) The Arctic sea ice goes through a violent seasonal cycle in which more than 90% of the winter sea ice is gone by September and it is true that September minimum sea ice is declining from year to year at a rate of about 1% per year. The assumption that this decline is caused by global warming is not supported by the data as shown in related posts:  LINK:  https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/09/25/list-of-arctic-sea-ice-posts/  .  RESPONSE (2): Thawing permafrost and melting glaciers. Permafrost thaw is projected and not observed. Some localized thaw events in Siberia are localized events and if these have climate implications they must be understood as internal climate variability because of their geographical and temporal limitations. Global warming may play a partial role in glacial melt there in terms of meltwater ponds that form on top of the ice sheet during June, July, and August but this role of the atmosphere in the total melt rate of 200 to 350 gigatons per year is insignificant as the melt is mostly a result of geothermal heat flux from geological activity under the ice sheet as described in a related post: LINK:  https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/07/climate-change-threatens-polar-ice/  Global warming: Summer Arctic sea ice will be gone by 2050

BBC: LINK: https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-54902068  13 NOV 2020

CLAIM:  Climate change: Hurricanes get stronger on land as world warms. North Atlantic hurricanes are retaining far more of their strength when they hit land because of global warming, say scientists. Previously, experts believed these storms died down quickly once they made landfall. But over the past 50 years, the time it takes for hurricanes to dissipate on the coast has almost doubled. Researchers says that climate change gives the storms more energy, which continues to power them over land. The scientists involved say that this will likely make hurricanes more damaging further inland in years to come. This year, the North Atlantic has already broken the record for the number of named storms, with Hurricane Theta becoming the 29th storm of the season – beating the 28 that formed in 2005. Experts have noted that in recent years, tropical storms that make landfall are persisting far longer and doing more damage than in the past. In 2017, Houston, Texas, was inundated when Hurricane Harvey settled over the city for several days, dumping 127 billion tonnes of water on the US’ fourth largest city. RESPONSE:  According to climate science, the impact of global warming on tropical cyclones can be assessed only in long term trends of longer than 40 years of decadal mean tropical cyclone activity in all six basins. Extreme variability from year to year and from basin to basin make it impossible to make this assessment in terms of a single cyclone basin, much less in terms of a single season in a single basin as the BBC has done in their tropical cyclone analysis. LINK:  https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/09/20/a-failed-obsession-with-tropical-cyclones/ 

NEWSCIENTISTLINK:  https://www.newscientist.com/article/2259556-rivers-of-air-in-the-sky-are-melting-huge-patches-of-antarctic-sea-ice/ 

CLAIMRivers of warm air transported across the atmosphere have been found to play a major role in the creation of vast openings in Antarctic sea ice. Storms are known to help trigger the openings, known as polynyas, which in the past have expanded to tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of square kilometres. But despite the world’s most powerful storms being a regular fixture in the Southern Ocean around Antarctica, they don’t on their own explain why the polynyas form at some times and not at others. Now, Diana Francis at Khalifa University and her colleagues think they have the answer. Combing satellite records and climate data, they looked at major polynya events in the Weddell Sea on the Antarctic coast in 1973 and 2017. They found that flows of heat and water vapour in the sky, known as atmospheric rivers, travelled huge distances, in one case moving from the south-eastern coast of South America down to the Weddell Sea in 2017. During September that year, one river increased air temperatures in the Weddell Sea by 10°C. Earth’s most important rivers are in the sky – and they’re drying up. It isn’t just that the rivers of heat start melting the ice pack, making it fragile and easily broken up by cyclones. The atmospheric rivers also make the storms more intense because they provide more water vapour. They are linked, not independent, says Francis. The polynyas can bring benefits, such as providing nutrients to marine life. However, like melting Arctic sea ice, they matter globally because they can speed up climate change when dark open water reflects less of the sun’s energy back to space than white ice. In turn, climate change will influence future polynyas. Global warming is expected to increase the frequency of atmospheric river events by around 50 per cent if carbon emissions stay high. RESPONSE:  A polynya is an area of sea free of sea ice that is surrounded by sea ice. Antarctic polynyas  tend to form at random but they are location specific and form repeatedly at the same location. That these formations are random except that they tend to recur at the same location implies localized cause. For example, they tend to form repeatedly in the Weddell Sea (image below). There is no long term trend in polynya formation that can be attributed to global warming or fossil fuels. The region of the Antarctic where they form are known to be geologically active. Abyssal geothermal heat flux events are far more likely to create polynyas than global warming. See for example; Hofmann, M., and M. A. Morales Maqueda. “Geothermal heat flux and its influence on the oceanic abyssal circulation and radiocarbon distribution.” Geophysical Research Letters 36.3 (2009).

NASA: GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE, VITAL SIGNS OF THE PLANET: CLIMATE CHANGE CAUSING HIGH TIDE FLOODING IN MARYLAND. LINK: https://climate.nasa.gov/news/3041/beating-back-the-tides/ 

CLAIM: It was a sight you don’t normally see: a jellyfish lying dead in the middle of a parking lot partly submerged in water. But this was no ordinary parking lot. This particular section of asphalt in downtown Annapolis, Maryland, is among a growing number of areas prone to frequent flooding in the seaside town. The jellyfish had slipped in from the Chesapeake Bay through an opening in the seawall. “You can literally kayak from the bay right into this parking lot,” said NOAA oceanographer William Sweet on the September day that we visited. The tide was relatively low that day. On days with the highest tides of the year, whole parking lots and streets in Annapolis are underwater, causing delays and traffic congestion. Compromise Street, a major road into town, is often forced to shut down, slowing response times for firefighters and other first responders. Local businesses have lost as much as $172,000 a year, or 1.4% of their annual revenue, due to high-tide floods, according to a study published in 2019 in the journal Science Advances. High-tide floods, also known as nuisance floods, sunny-day floods, and recurrent tidal floods, occur “when tides reach anywhere from 1.75 to 2 feet above the daily average high tide and start spilling onto streets or bubbling up from storm drains,” according to an annual report on the subject by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA.) These floods are usually not related to storms; they typically occur during high tides, and they impact people’s lives. Because of rising seas driven by climate change, the frequency of this kind of flood has dramatically increased in recent years. Get NASA’s Climate Change News: Subscribe to the Newsletter » Sea level rise is often spoken of in future terms, including projections for impacts we’re likely to see by the end of the century. But in many communities in the U.S., sea level rise is already a factor in people’s lives in the form of high-tide flooding. Credit: NASA Between 2000 and 2015, high-tide flooding in the U.S. doubled from an average of three days per year to six along the Northeast Atlantic, according to a 2018 NOAA report. It is especially common along the East Coast and Gulf Coast, where the frequency is up by roughly 200% over the last two decades. In some areas like Annapolis, the numbers are even more extreme. Annapolis had a record 18 days of high-tide flooding from May 2019 to April 2020, according to flooding thresholds for the city established by NOAA. That’s up from the previous record of 12 days in 2018. Before 2015, the record number of high-tide flood days in one year was seven, and the yearly average of high-tide floods from 1995 to 2005 was two. Plot of high-tide flooding in Annapolis This plot shows the trend of high-tide flooding days in Annapolis, Md. Already, it’s disrupting people’s lives, said Ben Hamlington, a research scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. “It impacts your ability to go to work, to drop the kids off at daycare, to go to the grocery store.” Hamlington leads the NASA Sea Level Change team, which studies the roles that ocean, ice, and land play in high-tide flooding. In March 2019, the NASA team met in Annapolis with 35 local and state government officials to discuss the challenges coastal cities are facing and provide science and research to help them make decisions. Future projections are gloomier. Without additional flood management efforts, the frequency of this kind of flooding is projected to double or triple by 2030, and could be as much as 15-fold higher by 2050. This means high-tide flooding could occur 180 days a year in some locations, “effectively becoming the new high tide,” the report reads. Plus, floodwater can travel up pipes, compromising both stormwater and wastewater systems. In Norfolk and Chesapeake, Virginia, lawn fertilizers get flushed by tidal floods from people’s yards and into the Elizabeth River, feeding harmful algal blooms, said Derek Loftis, an assistant professor at the Center for Coastal Resources Management with the Virginia Institute of Marine Science, who studies the issue. Sea level rise can feel abstract, like something looming far off in the future. But if you want to see it happening in real-time, look no further than these floods. “It’s not an esoteric discussion any longer,” Sweet said. “It’s real.” What Drives It Think of high-tide flooding as a layering of different processes on different time scales, said JPL’s Hamlington. On the shortest time scale, you have the tides themselves, which are driven by the gravitational pull of the Moon. The highest high tides typically occur during full moons and new moons, when the Moon, the Sun and Earth are nearly aligned. During these times, the pull is stronger as the gravity of the Sun reinforces the gravity of the Moon. Winds can also influence how high the tides come in. The Chesapeake Bay, for example, is prone to winds from the North and the South. “Winds from the South shove water up the bay, and Northeasterly winds can pile up water regionally along much of the East coast, including the bay.” Sweet said. “And we’re not talking about extreme winds, we’re talking about the kind of winds that we like when we go sailing: 15, 20-knot winds.” Then there are the climate patterns like El Niño, which lead to higher-than-normal sea levels along both the U.S. East and West coasts. Subsidence, the settling or sinking of land, also has a powerful role to play. Subsidence partly stems from natural causes, like the compaction of sediments in the Mississippi Delta and the movement of land due to natural geologic processes, but also from the extraction of groundwater and natural gas along the Gulf coast. And, of course, the most powerful driver is sea level rise itself. The ocean is rising at about 3.3 millimeters, or 0.13 inches a year, mostly due to the melting of land-based ice and the thermal expansion of ocean water, according to NASA. This rate is accelerating over time, by about an additional 1 millimeter per year roughly every decade. Measuring High-Tide Flooding. The best flood projections must take all of these processes into account, and that requires a view from space, Hamlington said. “Understanding the future of high-tide flooding is a little bit like a puzzle,” Hamlington said. “We’re trying to put together the pieces. And the satellites we have available really help us do that.” Hamlington’s team relies on a suite of radar altimeter satellites to measure the height of the ocean surface. From an altitude of 830 miles (1,336 kilometers), these altimeters bounce signals off the ocean surface and measure the time it takes them to return to the spacecraft. “To study large-scale climate signals like El Niño, we need to have a broad view of the ocean,” Hamlington said. “The altimeters give us really accurate measurements of sea surface height on these very large scales.” They include the Jason-3 satellite, an international partnership between NOAA, NASA, the French government’s National Centre for Space Studies and EUMETSAT, along with its predecessors, Jason-1, Jason-2 and TOPEX/Poseidon, which collectively form a consecutive record dating back to 1992. Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich will mark the latest satellite in the partners’ efforts. An artist’s rendering of the Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich satellite. An artist’s rendering of the Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich satellite. Credit: NASA These observations combine with other satellite data and with continuous measurements from about 2,000 tide gauges worldwide to fill in the pieces of that puzzle. The satellites fill in the gaps where the tide gauges are sparse. Mapping Rising Tides Satellite data also help scientists model and map high-tide flooding events. In coastal Virginia, for example, Loftis has helped create a model to predict the area’s highest high-tide floods of the year, and has paired it with a large citizen science effort to validate the location of those floodwaters. Over the years, he’s recruited hundreds of volunteers-turned-citizen scientists to fan out along the coastline and validate his projections by marking the height of the floodwaters with GPS tags. The effort began in Norfolk, but has expanded to volunteers across coastal Virginia and Maryland’s Eastern shore. The team relies on the Landsat 7 and Landsat 8 satellites from NASA and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Terra satellite’s ASTER (a contribution from Japan) and MODIS instruments, and NOAA’s GOES-16 geostationary satellite, to evaluate the model after the flood. He also believes that a new 98-feet (30-meter) mapping model that uses data from the NOAA-NASA Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20 polar-orbiting satellites might be helpful  future. Loftis hopes these maps will help cities prepare for future floods as well as urban flood protection. “There previously wasn’t much of a frame of reference,” Loftis said. “Now we’ve got a map with volunteer data that confirms yes, this is what we saw with tens of thousands of data points.” High-tide flooding is not just a beachfront problem. It’s a problem that will increasingly impact urban areas like New York City, Philadelphia, Charleston and Miami, but also smaller communities along the coast, especially in back bays and estuaries, said David Kriebel, a professor of ocean engineering at the U.S. Naval Academy. It’s likely to become a story of haves and have nots, he said. Some areas will have the means to afford the massive funding required to protect against it; others won’t. “I think we’re going to end up with certain locations that are going to take big actions— New York City and Miami Beach are examples—and we’re going to have other smaller communities that are going to have a hard time dealing with it,” he said. Building Defenses. Half a mile up the road from Downtown Annapolis, the U.S. Naval Academy is also beating back water. McNair Road runs along the perimeter of campus, separating the academy’s indoor stadium from College Creek, a waterway that feeds into the Severn River, and eventually, the Chesapeake Bay. When the seawater gets high enough, it shoots up through the storm drains, flooding McNair Road, and at the same time, spills over onto Ramsay Road on the opposite side of the creek. Both roads have already flooded 20 times this year, and more than 40 times each in 2018 and 2019. U.S. Naval Academy flooding. Ramsay Road, which runs along the cemetery on the campus of the U.S. Naval Academy, flooded more than 40 times in 2018 and 2019. Credit: David Kriebel On a recent fall morning, Kriebel points out the many defenses the campus has built against rising water: A seawall built alongside the river, flood walls protecting campus buildings, and classroom floors and walls made of concrete or painted cinder block—materials more resistant to flooding than carpet, wood and drywall. Across the river, at Ramsay Road, high water levels frequently flood parts of the road that run alongside the cemetery where Naval Academy alumni, including former Sen. John McCain, are buried. The cemetery itself is on a hill, so it’s not in danger of flooding, but floodwater has been known to close the road on days that solemn services are planned. And in addition to the water that floods over roads, there’s the water lurking just below the road surface. “When the water is just below the roadbed on the one side,” Kriebel said, “it seeps through the gravel under the road and pops out the other side.” On top of the 40-some flood events occurring each year, he added, “there are literally hundreds of high tides that are just a few inches below the road surface today.” At the Naval Academy, they’re considering various flood protection options. One option at Ramsay Road is to abandon the road and relocate it. Another is to build another flood wall. But Kriebel suspects they’ll choose a third option, to elevate the road by about a foot, and eventually raise the athletic field that runs alongside it too. Still, he said, the water is rising fast, and much of this flood protection will only last for a few decades. At that point, additional measures will have to be taken. “You can build walls, you can add inflow preventers and you can protect areas that are worth protecting, but eventually, water’s going to find its way through the holes,” Sweet said. “You’re not really meant to hold back the tides.”

RESPONSE:  High tide flooding in this region is not unusual and not in itself evidence that it is caused by global warming because the region is well known for its land subsidence problem. Just because there are coastal high tide floods does not mean they can be moderated by taking climate action. That high tide floods are not unusual in this region is seen in its history where we find that high tide flooding events are recorded in 1933, 1954, 1955, 1960, 1967, 1972, 1999, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2014 and 2020. The data do show a trend toward more frequent high tide flood events while at the same time the land elevation there has declined as land subsidence has continued. The observed sea level rise of more than 2 mm a year since 1950 may have played a role as well but no direct evidence for that causation is provided by NASA and there is no evidence in the data that it can be moderated by taking climate action:  LINK:  https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/02/20/csiroslr/ 

The image below is of land subsidence in coastal Maryland.

MATHEWS
THE TCRE CORRELATION BETWEEN TEMPERATURE & CUMULATIVE EMISSIONS

DECADAL EMISSIONS AND DECADAL WARMING

THE DECADAL DATA DETRENDED

DETRENDED CORRELATIONS
DETRENDED CORRELATIONS
DETRENDED CORRELATIONS AT DIFFERENT TIME SCALES

For the purpose of our analysis we compute the moving decadal mean OF annual emissions with the end year of the decades running from 1859 to 2014. We compute the correlation between warming and emissions at a decadal time scale in a moving decadal window that moves through the time series one year at a time. We find that both series show an upward drift in the moving average sample period 1859-2014 and test their relationship at the decadal time scale. Both series are detrended by subtracting the observed values from the OLS trend lines. We now look for a correlation between the two detrended series at different values of lag. Each value of lag represents the number of years after the first year of the moving emissions decade that the moving warming decade begins.

The results of the hypothesis tests are summarized in the last chart above where two two longer time scales (15 years and 20 years) are also considered. We are unable to reject the null hypothesis of no correlation in any column and therefore conclude that the data do not show evidence of a correlation between detrended emissions and detrended rate of warming at these finite time scales.

We calculated UFO sightings per capita in each state - Insider

CONCLUSION: The movement to reduce fossil fuel emissions as a way of attenuating the rate of global warming subsumes a causal relationship between the rate of fossil fuel emissions and the rate of warming. This work is an attempt to detect the TCRE causal relationship between the rate of emissions and the rate of warming at finite time scales of 10 to 20 years instead of the full span of the data used in the TCRE. Three different lengths of the moving average window from one to two decades long are considered each with four different intervals for the years by which emissions lag warming. We find that none of the twelve scenarios show a statistically significant correlation between the rate of emissions and the rate of warming. The data do not show evidence of a causal relationship between emissions and warming in the decadal frequency response range. The results are inconsistent with the TCRE measure that relates the rate of warming directly to rate of emissions.

We calculated UFO sightings per capita in each state - Insider

A further inconsistency in the TCRE is demonstrated in a related post where a parody shows that the TCRE methodology that relates warming to emissions also relates warming to any variable with positive values such as UFO sightings. Like fossil fuel emissions, UFO sightings are also always positive.

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/12/03/tcruparody/

ufo2

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Levels Reach Record High of 400ppm - EcoWatch

THIS POST IS A DETRENDED CORRELATION ANALYSIS OF ANNUAL CHANGES IN MAUNA LOA CO2 CONCENTRATIONS AGAINST ANNUAL FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS.

Updated Carbon dioxide concentration in the atmospheres measured at the...  | Download Scientific Diagram

IN PRIOR WORKS IT WAS SHOWN WITH DETRENDED CORRELATION ANALYSIS AND MONTE CARLO SIMULATION THAT NO EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE IS FOUND IN THE DATA THAT ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION IS RESPONSIVE TO FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS. THESE RELATED POSTS ARE LINKED BELOW.

RELATED POST#1: CORRELATION ANALYSIS https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/12/19/co2responsiveness/

AIRBORNE-TABLE

RELATED POST#2: MONTE CARLO SIMULATION#1 OF THE EFFECT OF UNCERTAINTY IN CARBON CYCLE FLOWS: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/05/31/the-carbon-cycle-measurement-problem/

stochastic-flow-table

RELATED POST#3: MONTE CARLO SIMULATION#2 OF THE EFFECT OF UNCERTAINTY IN CARBON CYCLE FLOWS: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/06/10/a-monte-carlo-simulation-of-the-carbon-cycle/

MONTE-2

RELATED POST#4: A SURVEY OF GEOLOGICAL CARBON FLOWS THAT ARE NOT CONSIDERED IN THE DYNAMICS OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/08/27/carbonflows/

Seeps Give a Peek Into Plumbing

ABSTRACT: THE DATA FOR ANNUAL FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS AND ANNUAL CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION DO NOT SHOW THAT FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS CAUSE ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION TO CHANGE. THE FINDING IMPLIES THAT THERE IS NO EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE IN SUPPORT OF THE THEORY OF CLIMATE ACTION. THIS THEORY HOLDS THAT MOVING THE GLOBAL ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FROM FOSSIL FUELS TO RENEWABLES WILL MODERATE THE RATE OF INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC CO2 AND THEREBY MODERATE THE RATE OF WARMING.

5 Ways to Reduce the Drivers of Climate Change

IN THIS STUDY WE EXAMINE THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ANNUAL FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS AND ANNUAL CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION. THE ALTERNATE HYPOTHESIS IS THAT ANNUAL FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS EXPLAIN ANNUAL CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION. THE NULL HYPOTHESIS IS THAT ANNUAL FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS DO NOT EXPLAIN ANNUAL CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION. THE DATA AND THEIR ANALYSIS ARE PRESENTED BELOW WITH A SERIES OF CHARTS. A DISCUSSION OF THE INFORMATION CONTENT OF THESE CHARTS FOLLOWS AT THE END OF THE GRAPHICAL PRESENTATION.

CHART#1: ANNUAL FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS

CHART#2: ANNUAL CHANGES IN MLO CO2

CHART#3: THE CORRELATION BETWEEN ANNUAL FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS AND ANNUAL CHANGES IN MLO CO2 = 0.75

CHART#4: ANNUAL FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS DETRENDED

CHART#5: ANNUAL CHANGES IN MLO CO2 DETRENDED

CHART#6: DETRENDED CORRELATION BETWEEN ANNUAL CHANGES IN MLO CO2 AND ANNUAL FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS = 0.1615

CHART#7: HYPOTHESIS TEST

Spurious Correlations. Correlation does not imply causation… | by plotly |  Medium

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: THE SOURCE DATA SHOW A STRONG STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT CORRELATION OF CORR=0.75 BETWEEN ANNUAL CHANGES IN MLO CO2 AND ANNUAL EMISSIONS. THIS CORRELATION APPEARS TO SUPPORT THE USUAL ASSUMPTION THAT CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION ARE CAUSED BY FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS AND THAT THEREFORE THESE CHANGES CAN BE MODERATED WITH CLIMATE ACTION TO CONTROL AND REDUCE THE RATE OF WARMING.

HOWEVER, IT IS KNOWN THAT SOURCE DATA CORRELATION BETWEEN TIME SERIES DATA DERIVE FROM TWO SOURCES. THESE ARE (1) SHARED TRENDS WITH NO CAUSATION IMPLICATION AND (2) RESPONSIVENESS AT THE TIME SCALE OF INTEREST. HERE THE TIME SCALE OF INTEREST IS ANNUAL BECAUSE THE THEORY REQUIRES THAT ANNUAL CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION ARE CAUSED BY ANNUAL FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS. THIS TEST IS MADE BY REMOVING THE SHARED TREND THAT IS KNOWN TO HAVE NO CAUSATION INFORMATION OR IMPLICATION. HERE WE FIND THAT WHEN THE SHARED TREND IS REMOVED THE OBSERVED CORRELATION DISAPPPEARS. THE APPARENT CORRELATION BETWEEN EMISSIONS AND CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION IS THUS FOUND TO BE SPURIOUS.

THE DATA FOR ANNUAL FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS AND ANNUAL CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION DO NOT SHOW THAT FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS CAUSE ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION TO CHANGE. THE FINDING IMPLIES THAT THERE IS NO EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE IN SUPPORT OF THE THEORY OF CLIMATE ACTION. THIS THEORY HOLDS THAT MOVING THE GLOBAL ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FROM FOSSIL FUELS TO RENEWABLES WILL MODERATE THE RATE OF INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC CO2 AND THEREBY MODERATE THE RATE OF WARMING.

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5 Ways to Reduce the Drivers of Climate Change

Figure 2.
THE PROPOSED PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF THE TCRE

THIS POST IS A CRITICAL REVIEW OF Spafford&MacDougall 2020: A Probability Distribution of the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Emissions.

Spafford, Lynsay (THE DOCTORAL STUDENT), and Andrew H. MacDougall (THE PROFESSOR). “Quantifying the probability distribution function of the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions.” Environmental Research Letters 15.3 (2020): 034044. ABSTRACT: The Transient Climate Response to Cumulative CO2 Emissions (TCRE) is the proportionality between global temperature change and cumulative CO2 emissions. The TCRE implies a finite quantity of CO2 emissions, or carbon budget, consistent with a given temperature change limit. The uncertainty of the TCRE is often assumed be normally distributed, but this assumption has yet to be validated. We calculated the TCRE using a zero-dimensional ocean diffusive model and a Monte-Carlo error propagation (n = 10 000 000) randomly drawing from probability density functions of the climate feedback parameter, the land-borne fraction of carbon, radiative forcing from an e-fold increase in CO2 concentration, effective ocean diffusivity, and the ratio of sea to global surface temperature change. The calculated TCRE has a positively skewed distribution, ranging from 1.1 to 2.9 K EgC−1 (5%–95% confidence), with a mean and median value of 1.9 and 1.8 K EgC−1. The calculated distribution of the TCRE is well described by a log-normal distribution. The CO2-only carbon budget compatible with 2 °C warming is 1100 PgC, ranging from 700 to 1800 PgC (5%–95% confidence) estimated using a simplified model of ocean dynamics. Climate sensitivity is the most influential Earth System parameter on the TCRE, followed by the land-borne fraction of carbon, radiative forcing from an e-fold increase in CO2, effective ocean diffusivity, and the ratio of sea to global surface temperature change. While the uncertainty of the TCRE is considerable, the use of a log-normal distribution may improve estimations of the TCRE and associated carbon budgets. LINK TO FULL TEXT PDF: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab6d7b/pdf

Figure 3.
THE PROPOSED CLIMATE DRIVERS OF THE TCRE

PART-1: RELATED POSTS ON THE TCRE AND TCRE CARBON BUDGETS.

  1. Illusory statistical power in time series analysis: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/04/30/illusory-statistical-power-in-time-series-analysis/
  2. Statistical issues in the TCRE: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/05/06/tcre/

2. TCRU, a parody of the TCRE: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/12/03/tcruparody/

3. A mathematical inconsistency: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/08/26/a-mathematical-inconsistency/

4. The TCRE and its carbon budgets: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/08/06/tcrebudget/

5. Carbon budget mysteries created by the TCRE: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/10/13/carbon-budget-mystery/

6. Statistical flaws create climate science confusion: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/04/09/climate-statistics/

7. Earth system models derived from the TCRE: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/08/25/earth-system-models-and-carbon-budgets/

8. A SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATION OF THESE RELATIONSHIPS FOR CLIMATE SCIENCE IS THAT A TIME SERIES OF THE CUMULATIVE VALUES OF ANOTHER TIME SERIES, AS IN THE TCRE, HAS NEITHER DEGREES OF FREEDOM NOR TIME SCALE. THERFORE THE TCRE DOES NOT CONTAIN USEFUL INFORMATION. 

Climate Feedback Lab
Professor MacDougall

PART-2: THE MULTIPLICITY ISSUE

  1. In correlation and regression analysis of time series data each data value has a unique place and role in that time series sequence. This structure is dramatically altered when the same data item appears more than once in the series. For example, in the famous Kerry Emanuel paper on the PDI measure of the destructiveness of hurricanes he used a 30-year study period 1975 to 2004 but the rising trend that he was looking for did not have a statistically significant trend. So instead of annual mean PDI, he used a moving decadal window that moved through the time series one year at a time and computed a time series of decadal means. He lost the first 9 years of the time series but he still had a sample size of n=30-9=21 years and a smooth decadal mean PDI curve with very little variance and that gave him the the statistical significance he was looking for. Or so he thought.
  2. The statistical power that had apparently been gained without the help of additional information, derives from multiplicity of use whereby the same data item is used more than once when the time series is pre-processed to create a time series of moving averages.
  3. Preprocessing of time series data in this way serves a useful purpose in time series analysis but the further use of the preprocessed series for computing probability in hypothesis tests or for constructing confidence intervals reduces the degrees of freedom by virtue of multiplicity.
  4. Multiplicity derives from repeated use of the same data item in the source data series for the computation of multiple items in the filtered series. This issue is described in terms of hurricane frequency data shown below. Here, the red line is a 5-year moving average of the source data in black.

The visual indication in the chart above is that the filtered series indicated by the red line contains less uncertainty and more information than the source data indicated by the black line. The apparent reduction in uncertainty and the implied gain in information and statistical power is illusory because our information is unchanged. No new information was gathered in the moving average process. This illusion of increased statistical power was created by multiplicity in data usage.

When moving windows are used in this way, the first and last data points are used only once but the other data values in the middle are used more than once. Therefore, an adjustment of the effective sample size and degrees of freedom in the filtered time series is necessary to account for multiplicity.

A moving window of length λ advancing by an increment of one time unit through a time series of length N will generate a total of N-λ+1 windows. Since each window contains λ numbers, a total of λ(N-λ+1) numbers are used by the moving window. Yet, there are only N numbers in the time series. Therefore, the average multiplicity is M = (λ/N)(N-λ+1). Each number in the series is used M times on average. The effective value of N is then computed as ξ = N/M.

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LYNSAY SPAFFORD

PART 3: AN EXTREME FORM OF MULTIPLICITY

A TIME SERIES OF THE CUMULATIVE VALUES OF ANOTHER TIME SERIES.

A special case of the multiplicity issue is the construction of a time series of the cumulative values of another time series. This issue has arisen in climate science by way of the TCRE parameter described as the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Emissions proposed as empirical evidence of anthropogenic global warming theory that relates warming directly to fossil the fuel emissions of humans by way of a strong correlation between
cumulative fossil fuel emissions and surface temperature. The TCRE correlation is shown graphically below. Here we use Monte Carlo simulation to test the validity of the TCRE correlation between two time series that are the cumulative values of other time series data.

MONTE CARLO SIMULATION OF THE TCRE

Monte Carlo simulation is used to compare the correlation between normally distributed random numbers with that between their cumulative values under various conditions. The Microsoft Excel function RAND() generates uniformly distributed random numbers from zero to one. The Excel function NORMSINV(RAND()) serves to create normally distributed numbers with RAND() serving as the probability value. Monte Carlo simulation requires a large number of random numbers to be generated.
Typically 10,000 values are generated for each variable. Screenshots of the values generated and the Excel formulas used are shown below.

  1. The Monte Carlo simulation begins with two random series taken from a normal distribution and placed in columns A and B. Since these values are random, they have a 50% chance of being negative and 50%
    chance of being positive.
  2. Columns C and D impose a fixed bias toward positive numbers. Four different bias levels are tested. They are: no bias, 2% bias, 4% bias, and 6% bias. For example, if the bias is 2%, there will be 2% more positive numbers in the series than there would have been with no bias. Columns C and D are intended to correspond with observed changes as C=Δx and
    D=Δy and the values in columns E and F represent their cumulative values as E=x and F=y. An imposed bias ensures that changes are more likely to be positive than negative.
  3. Cell G2 contains the correlation between columns C and D and cell H2 contains the correlation between columns E and F. A special condition arises if one of the variables is known to be always positive. This is the case for fossil fuel emissions which are never negative. This condition is imposed with the ABS() function. The corresponding screen shots for this model appear as Figure 4 and Figure 5. Figure 4 differs
    from Figure 2 only in that column C contains only positive numbers. Figure 5 shows the use of the ABS() function to impose this constraint on the values in column C.
  4. The correlations in columns G and H are computed for all 13088 numbers generated for the simulation. Since the RAND() function is at the root of the numbers, each recalculation of the sheet by Excel creates
    a new set of numbers and a new pair of correlation values.
    These recalculations are carried out fifteen times for each condition to be tested and the fifteen pairs of correlations are assumed to represent the
    propensity of the condition being tested to create spurious correlations.
  5. Since the data are random and not correlated in their construction, all correlations observed are spurious. It should be noted that the summary tables and charts presented below may not exactly correspond because there may have been a recalculation in the interval before their capture for display in this presentation.
  6. BIAS FOR POSITIVE NUMBERS: The screenshots shown in Figures 2, 3, 4, and 5 are taken from the worksheet that uses a 2% bias toward positive values imposed by the RAND()>0.98 condition seen in Figures 3 and 5. This condition changes to RAND()>0.96 for the 4% bias case and to RAND()>0.94 for a 6% bias. The condition is absent in the no bias case. The bias for positive numbers is the key to the source of the TCRE correlation that has been interpreted as causation in climate science.
  7. The results of the Monte Carlo simulations at the different bias levels are summarized in the charts and tabulations below.

CASE#1: THE NO BIAS CASE

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ST XAVIER UNIVERSITY

CASE#2: THE IMPACT OF BIAS FOR POSITIVE VALUES

FIFTEEN OBSERVED CORRELATION PAIRS FOR EACH OF FOUR BIAS CONDITIONS AS: 0%, 2%, 4%, and 6%

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SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

The Monte Carlo simulation results for the two cases are summarized in the chart above. The left panel shows the results for the unconstrained case where emissions are allowed to have negative values. In this case the bias toward positive values of 2%, 4%, and 6% are applied to both Δx and Δy.

The right panel shows the constrained case with emissions are restricted to positive values as is the case in the AGW data. In this constrained case, the bias toward positive values of 0.02, 0.04, and 0.06 are applied only to Δy. The correlation between cumulative values is shown in blue and their standard deviation in red.

In both the constrained and unconstrained cases, as the bias is increased the value of the correlation rises and that of its standard deviation falls. This relationship is the key to understanding the TCRE correlation. Both the probability and magnitude of a spurious correlation rises with bias. In the constrained case, where emissions are always positive and which mimics the TCRE condition, these changes progress more rapidly.

THE RESULTS IMPLY THAT IN THE CLIMATE SCIENCE CASE, WITH EMISSIONS ALWAYS POSITIVE, EVEN A 2% BIAS FOR ANNUAL WARMING CAN CREATE STRONG AND STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT CORRELATIONS BETWEEN CUMULATIVE ANNUAL WARMING AND CUMULATIVE ANNUAL EMISSIONS. A 4% BIAS CREATES ALMOST PERFECT TCRE CORRELATIONS. WE CONCLUDE THAT THE TCRE IS A SPURIOUS CORRELATION WITH NO CAUSATION INTERPRETATION. IT IS A CREATION OF THE SIGN PATTERNS IN THE DATA WHERE ANNUAL EMISSIONS ARE ALWAYS POSITIVE AND ANNUAL WARMING HAS A POSITIVE BIAS. THIS CORRELATION HAS NO CAUSATION IMPLICATION.

ufo2
CUMULATIVE UFO SIGHTINGS AND TEMPERATURE

THE SPURIOUSNESS OF CORRELATIONS BETWEEN CUMULATIVE VALUES UNDER THESE SIGN CONVENTIONS IS DEMONSTRATED IN A RELATED POST WHERE WE SHOW THAT UFO SIGHTINGS WORK JUST AS WELL AS FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS SIMPLY BY VIRTUE OF BEING POSITIVE VALUES.

LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/12/03/tcruparody/

In another related post we show that the TCRE correlation is not found at decadal time scales. The spuriousness of the TCRE correlation is underscored in a related work where we find no TCRE correlation when a decadal time scale is used: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/11/12/a-decadal-tcre/

MATHEWS
We calculated UFO sightings per capita in each state - Insider

THE EFFECTIVE SAMPLE SIZE ISSUE IN TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

Multiplicity also reduces the effective sample size of the time series. This issue is discussed in some detail in a related post: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/04/30/illusory-statistical-power-in-time-series-analysis/ . In the case of the the cumulative values of a time series as used in the TCRE, the effective sample size is N=1. This means that the time series of the cumulative values of another time series has neither time scale nor degrees of freedom. Therefore the time series of the cumulative values of another time series does not contain useful information. This issue is discussed in some detail in a related post on illusory statistical power in time series analysis. LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2019/04/30/illusory-statistical-power-in-time-series-analysis/

EXCERPT FROM THE RELATED POST: All moving window processes in time series analysis involve repeated use of the same data value. If the same data value is used multiple times, it creates a false sense of information because this piece of data brings with it new information only in the first use. It is therefore proposed that the information content of a filtered series and therefore its degrees of freedom must be adjusted for multiplicity. A procedure is presented for estimating the average multiplicity in the use of the source data series in generating the filtered series. The average multiplicity is used to estimate an effective sample size and the effective degrees of freedom. Hypothesis tests must be checked to ensure that rejection of H0 survives when the degrees of freedom are adjusted for multiplicity.

Massachusetts Institute of Technology Earth System Model of ...

THE MATHEMATICAL INCONSISTENCY ISSUE

in a related post: LINK: https://tambonthongchai.com/2020/08/26/a-mathematical-inconsistency/ we note that since the ECS is a logarithmic relationship between emissions and warming and the TCR is a linear relationship between emissions and warming, the two measures are inconsistent and incompatible. The use of both measures of warming to explain the same phenomenon of nature is not possible.

illusory-april-2
PDF) ILLUSORY STATISTICAL POWER IN TIME SERIES ANALYSIS | Jamal Munshi -  Academia.edu
LINK: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2878419

A SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATION OF THESE RELATIONSHIPS FOR CLIMATE SCIENCE IS THAT A TIME SERIES OF THE CUMULATIVE VALUES OF ANOTHER TIME SERIES, AS IN THE TCRE, HAS NEITHER DEGREES OF FREEDOM NOR TIME SCALE. THERFORE THE TCRE DOES NOT CONTAIN USEFUL INFORMATION.